Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Scenario analysi »
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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Scenario analysi"
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Wang, Xiao Lu. « Charging Characteristics of Electric Vehicles and Charging Cost Analysis ». Advanced Materials Research 953-954 (juin 2014) : 1363–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.953-954.1363.
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This paper investigates the “Vehicle-charging mode” and the “Battery-changing mode” of the electric vehicles. Firstly, it analyzes the vehicle-charging time, the battery-changing time and the charging power under two modes. Secondly, this paper searches into different sorts of charging and sets up three scenarios based on the differences: scenario1, disorderly; scenario2, continuous; scenario 3, off-peak. Thirdly, this paper considers the combination of generator sets that reaches the requirements of electric vehicle charging based on the characteristics of different sorts of charging, concerns the increased fuel costs, O&M costs and start cost generated along, and draws conclusions with the comparison of the elements.
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Xiao, Yang, Qinli Xiong et Kaiwen Pan. « What Is Left for Our Next Generation ? Integrating Ecosystem Services into Regional Policy Planning in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China ». Sustainability 11, no 1 (20 décembre 2018) : 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11010003.
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Land use/Land cover (LULC) changes as a result of policy planning influence ecosystem structures, processes, and functions, which are the basis for providing a wide range of ecosystem services (ES). There is an increasing consensus about the importance of integrating ES into ecological policy but quantifying the potential impacts of different policy on ES has proven difficult. We designed a remote sensing, geographic information system and scenario analysis-based approach to estimate and analyze the relationship between ES (soil conservation and carbon sequestration) and ecological policy designed to improve human welfare in the Chongqing municipality in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China; a densely populated, highly modified watershed with serious soil erosion and flood hazard. Three alternative scenarios in 2050 were modeled for the Three Gorges Reservoir Area watershed. The model GEOMOD was used to predict future LULC changes due to policy planning. The ES models (Universal Soil Loss Equation model and Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model) were designed to inform decisions, with an aim to align economic forces with conservation. We examine policy effectiveness by comparing scenarios for 2050 (Scenario1: Maintain current policy with no considerations of ES; Scenario2: Integrate ES into policy planning; Scenario3: Integrate ES into policy planning in view of the need of local people). Scenario-based LULC change analysis revealed that if the current afforestation policy continues (scenario 1), total ES would be further increased in 2050 due to expansion of forest cover. However, by targeting policy to improve ES provision (scenarios 2 and 3), ecological risks of soil loss can be significantly reduced and carbon sequestration enhanced. Scenario 3, thus, provided the best future environmental development scenario considering the need of local people in each region for ES. This scenario will theoretically help the Three Gorges Dam to harvest more ecological benefits through improvements in soil conservation and carbon sequestration. This study highlights the observation that including ES in policy planning and has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. This study highlights that including ES in policy planning has a great potential to generate opportunities to maximize ES. Hence, there is a need to encourage proper implementation of ecological policy to maintain and improve ES.
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Jo, Hanghun, Seong-A. Kim et Heungsoon Kim. « Forecasting the Reduction in Urban Air Pollution by Expansion of Market Shares of Eco-Friendly Vehicles : A Focus on Seoul, Korea ». International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no 22 (19 novembre 2022) : 15314. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192215314.
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Due to global climate change, various countries have agreed upon the use of conventions. In this study, the eco-friendly vehicular policy on carbon neutrality implemented in Seoul, Korea, was examined. To this end, various policy-based scenarios were set, and the changes in automotive exhaust gas emissions were evaluated and compared. The evaluation method combined macroscopic and microscopic emission models as its analysis framework. Micro-traffic data available in Korea were used for analyses, and the results for all autonomous districts were derived to cover the entire area of Seoul. The findings confirmed that the most effective measure is the initial replacement of old, mid-size, or large diesel passenger cars with eco-friendly vehicles (Middle-sized: Scenario 2-1 5.52%, Scenario 2-2 6.86%, Scenario 3-1 80.93%, and Scenario 3-2 83.98%). The replacement of old vehicles exhibited the highest effect in all tested scenarios, while the initial replacement of diesel vehicles was more effective than the replacement of gasoline and liquified petroleum gas vehicles (Diesel: Scenario2-1 6.64%, Scenario 2-2 8.21%, Scenario3-1 86.23%, and Scenario 3-2 90.51%). Among the autonomous districts of Seoul, the Gangnam-gu area exhibited the largest emission-reduced effect among all the tested scenarios (Gangnam-gu: Scenario 2-1 5.80%, Scenario 2-2 6.74%, Scenario 3-1 80.44%, and Scenario 3-2 82.62%). Overall, it was demonstrated that the findings of this study may have significant policy implications in terms of urban emission changes pertaining to transportation.
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Nashih, AM Sa’dun, Kuncoro Harto Widodo et Dyah Ismoyowati. « Inventory Level Analysis of Horticultural Commodities Exported by PT BSL from Central Java Indonesia to Singapore ». KnE Life Sciences 3, no 3 (1 janvier 2016) : 129. http://dx.doi.org/10.18502/kls.v3i3.407.
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<p>Horticultural commodities, in Indonesia, are one of the main clusters of export commodities. The demand of the commodities is relatively high due to the high economic level of consumers in Singapore. The exporter, e.g., PT BSL, had difficulties to meet the demand of Singapore’s importer. This problem will be analyzed with inventory system in the supply chain of vegetables and fruits exported from Central Java Indonesia to Singapore. To identify the problem, we combine a dynamic system approach and its validation. The data on existing conditions (with the level of rejection = 20%) were then formulated and modeled with two alternative scenarios, scenario1 and 2. In scenario 1, the level of rejection was set at the level of 10%, while scenario2 at the level of 30%. Based on the simulation results, it was found that the average level of inventory in the scenario 1 was at 661.9 kg per day, while in scenario 2 were 112.34 kg per day.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: dynamic systems, horticultural commodities, inventory, supply chain </p>
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Paltsev, Sergey. « Energy scenarios : the value and limits of scenario analysis ». Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews : Energy and Environment 6, no 4 (28 décembre 2016) : e242. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wene.242.
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Witt, Tobias, Katharina Stahlecker et Jutta Geldermann. « Morphological analysis of energy scenarios ». International Journal of Energy Sector Management 12, no 4 (5 novembre 2018) : 525–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-09-2017-0003.
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PurposeEnergy scenarios have long been successfully used to inform decision-making in energy systems planning, with a wide range of different methodological approaches for developing and evaluating them. The purpose of this study is to analyze the existing approaches and classify them with a morphological box.Design/methodology/approachThis paper builds upon the methodological literature on developing and evaluating energy scenarios and presents a morphological box, which comprises parameters describing the scenario properties, (energy system) model properties, scientific practice and institutional settings of energy scenarios. The newly developed morphological box is applied to four selected energy scenarios of the German energy transition.FindingsThe morphological box is a suitable tool to classify current energy scenarios. The exemplary application also points toward four challenges in the current practice of energy scenario development and evaluation: increasing complexity of decision problems, transparency of the scenario development process, transparency of the decision support process and communication of uncertainty.Originality/valueThe morphological box of energy scenarios helps researchers soundly document and present their methodological approaches for energy scenario development and evaluation. It also facilitates the work of analysts who want to classify, interpret and compare energy scenarios from a methodological perspective. Finally, it supports the identification of gaps between current practice and the methodological literature on energy scenarios, leading to the development of new types of energy scenarios.
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Batsch, Felix, Alireza Daneshkhah, Vasile Palade et Madeline Cheah. « Scenario Optimisation and Sensitivity Analysis for Safe Automated Driving Using Gaussian Processes ». Applied Sciences 11, no 2 (15 janvier 2021) : 775. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app11020775.
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Assuring the safety of automated vehicles is essential for their timely introduction and acceptance by policymakers and the public. To assess their safe design and robust decision making in response to all possible scenarios, new methods that use a scenario-based testing approach are needed, as testing on public roads in normal traffic would require driving millions of kilometres. We make use of the scenario-based testing approach and propose a method to model simulated scenarios using Gaussian Process based models to predict untested scenario outcomes. This enables us to efficiently determine the performance boundary, where the safe and unsafe scenarios can be evidently distinguished from each other. We present an iterative method that optimises the parameter space of a logical scenario towards the most critical scenarios on this performance boundary. Additionally, we conduct a novel probabilistic sensitivity analysis by efficiently computing several variance-based sensitivity indices using the Gaussian Process models and evaluate the relative importance of the scenario input parameters on the scenario outcome. We critically evaluate and investigate the usefulness of the proposed Gaussian Process based approach as a very efficient surrogate model, which can model the logical scenarios effectively in the presence of uncertainty. The proposed approach is applied on an exemplary logical scenario and shows viability in finding concrete critical scenarios. The reported results, derived from the proposed approach, could pave the way to more efficient testing of automated vehicles and instruct further physical tests on the determined critical scenarios.
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Pan, Xing, Lunhu Hu, Ziling Xin, Shenghan Zhou, Yanmei Lin et Yong Wu. « Risk Scenario Generation Based on Importance Measure Analysis ». Sustainability 10, no 9 (7 septembre 2018) : 3207. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10093207.
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A risk scenario is a combination of risk events that may result in system failure. Risk scenario analysis is an important part of system risk assessment and avoidance. In engineering activity-based systems, important risk scenarios are related to important events. Critical activities, meanwhile, mean risk events that may result in system failure. This article proposes these definitions of risk event and risk scenario based on the characteristics of risk in engineering activity-based systems. Under the proposed definitions, a risk scenario framework generated based on importance measure analysis is given, in which critical activities analysis, risk event identification, and risk scenario generation are the three main parts. Important risk events are identified according to activities’ uncertain importance measure and important risk scenarios are generated on the basis of a system’s critical activities analysis. In the risk scenario generation process based on importance analysis, the importance degrees of network activities are ranked to identify the subject of risk events, so that risk scenarios can be combined and generated by risk events and the importance of scenarios is analyzed. Critical activities are analyzed by Taguchi tolerance design, mathematical analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation methods. Then the degrees of uncertain importance measure of activities are solved by the three methods and these results are compared. The comparison results in the example show that the proposed method of uncertain importance measure is very effective for distinguishing the importance level of activities in systems. The calculation and simulation results also verify that the risk events composed of critical activities can generate risk scenarios.
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Jakimavičius, Marius, et Marija Burinskienė. « ASSESSMENT OF VILNIUS CITY DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS BASED ON TRANSPORT SYSTEM MODELLING AND MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS ». JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 15, no 4 (31 décembre 2009) : 361–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/1392-3730.2009.15.361-368.
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The paper describes the assessment of 3 Vilnius city development scenarios according to transport system parameters multi‐criteria analysis and performing transport system modelling for 2015 and 2025 years. Vilnius city development scenarios such as concentrated development, extensive development and decentralized concentrated development have been evaluated from a transport viewpoint. Vilnius city development scenarios have been evaluated by using SAW (Simple Additive Weighting) multi‐criteria method. According to this method development scenarios ranking calculations have been performed using transport system indicators. Urban transport system analysis model was developed for Vilnius conditions, which estimates the fuel consumption, average travel distance and driven time by car in morning peak hours depending on urban areas development scenario and socio‐economic data. This model should be used when calculating new projects of the transport infrastructure (by‐passes, new bridges) and when evaluating the economic efficiency of traffic organization projects. Santrauka Straipsnyje analizuojami trys susisiekimo sistemos požiūriu Vilniaus miesto plėtros scenarijai. Miesto plėtros scenarijai, kaip sutelktoji plėtra, decentralizuotai sutelktoji plėtra ir ekstensyvioji plėtra, vertinami daugiakriteriu metodu SAW ir atliekant Vilniaus miesto plėtros scenarijų modeliavimą 2015 m. ir 2025 m. Daugiakriteriu metodu nustatoma plėtros scenarijų prioritetinė eilė, vertinant Vilniaus miesto susisiekimo sistemos rodiklius. Modeliuojant plėtros scenarijų, nustatomi tokie rytinio piko metu rodikliai: kuro naudojimas, suminis nuvažiuotas atstumas, suminis kelionės laikas. Modeliavimas remiasi esamais ir numatytais bendrojo Vilniaus plano miesto gatvių tinklo duomenimis, transportinių rajonų dabartiniais ir prognozuojamais socialiniais bei ekonominiais duomenimis. Sukurtas modelis gali būti sėkmingai naudojamas vertinant transporto infrastruktūros ir eismo organizavimo projektų įtaką miesto susisiekimo sistemai.
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Densing, M., E. Panos et S. Hirschberg. « Meta-analysis of energy scenario studies : Example of electricity scenarios for Switzerland ». Energy 109 (août 2016) : 998–1015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.020.
Texte intégralThèses sur le sujet "Scenario analysi"
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BARONE, ANTONIO. « Regenerating Nature to regenerate Communities ? A first approach on a rural area : the case of the Union of Valconca Municipalities ». Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10281/331436.
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Questo lavoro di ricerca ha inteso esplorare il ruolo ed i futuri possibili, in un’ottica di sviluppo sostenibile, dei territori rurali. Per raggiungere questo obbiettivo, l’attività di ricerca si è concentrata su un territorio a vocazione rurale della provincia di Rimini. In particolare si è proceduto ad un inquadramento del territorio tramite interviste semi-strutturate alla popolazione e analisi dell’uso del suolo attraverso tecniche di remote sensing. Si è proceduto quindi ad una mappatura tramite “parere di esperti” della fornitura e della domanda di alcuni servizi ecosistemici presenti nel territorio, evidenziando i punti critici. Sulla base di queste analisi si è quindi proceduto all’individuazione di uno scenario “rigenerativo” per il territorio considerato, basato sull’adozione di pratiche di agricoltura biologica. Si sono analizzati in maniera qualitativa gli efffetti di queste pratiche su alcuni servizi ecosistemici, mentre in maniera quantitativa gli effetti relativi al sequestro di carbonio nei suoli. Alcune argomentazioni sull'importanza di rigenerare i servizi ecosistemici e sugli effetti “sistemici” delle pratiche di agricoltura biologica concludono il lavoro.The aim of this research work was to explore the role and possible futures of rural territories with a view to sustainable development. To achieve this objective, the research activity focused on a rural territory in the province of Rimini. In particular, the territory was surveyed by means of semi-structured interviews with the population and analysis of land use through remote sensing techniques. The supply of and demand for certain ecosystem services in the area was then mapped by means of an "expert opinion", highlighting the critical points. On the basis of these analyses, a "regenerative" scenario was identified for the area in question, based on the adoption of organic farming practices.The effects of these practices on some ecosystem services were analysed qualitatively, while the effects on soil carbon sequestration were analysed quantitatively. Some arguments on the importance of regenerating ecosystem services and on the 'systemic' effects of organic farming practices conclude the work.
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McCahon, Oliver Colin. « Noninferior set scenario analysis ». Thesis, University of Canterbury. Business Administration, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/4369.
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Although many Mathematical Programming techniques have been developed for application to decision making under uncertainty, these techniques are based on three implicit assumptions. The first is that probabilities can be determined for the outcomes of the uncertain parameters, the second is that the decision maker is risk neutral, and the third is that all of the decision maker's concerns can be included in the formulation. While there are many decision making situations for which these assumptions are appropriate, there are many other situations for which they are not. In particular, these assumptions are seldom supportable for strategic decision making problems. Strategic decision making must consider possible future events that have seldom, if ever, occurred before, and for which probabilities cannot be determined. Because the situation will occur only once, and the decision will have a large impact, the decision ma.ker is unlikely to be risk neutral. Finally, the decision makers will often have concerns that cannot be represented in a mathematical programming formulation.
In this work we present an approach to decision making under uncertainty that relaxes the three assumptions listed above. We assume that the uncertain future can be described as a small set of scenarios. These scenarios can be considered to have separate, competing objectives, because decisions that prepare well for one scenario generally prepare poorly for the others. The problem is formulated as a multi-objective optimisation problem, and a set of non-dominated decisions is found. The decision maker can choose a decision from this set according to his/her attitudes to risk, and to account for other requirements that cannot be represented in a mathematical programming formulation. This approach is developed for problems with continuous variables, and then extended to problems that include binary variables.
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Santarcangelo, Vito. « Visual Behavior Analysis in Retail Scenario ». Doctoral thesis, Università di Catania, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10761/4135.
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The retail world is today highly competitive and has seen its logics completely revolutionized by the introduction of e-commerce that have prompted a reaction from the retail market, requiring greater attention to the consumer. We therefore moved from the world of traditional marketing (generic flyer) to that of 1to1 marketing (specific attention to the customer, profiling and personalization of the assortment offer). In this context the need arises to introduce innovative tools that can allow the physical sales spaces to be kept competitive, interacting more with the customer in order to create a more relevant commercial proposal. As a consequence, the computer vision represented one of the possible means to carry out the behavioral analysis of the consumer useful for dynamically adapting the assortment proposal.
DOOH (Digital Out Of Home) in its most widespread form of interactive point-of sale kiosks is one of the best tools to get in touch with the customer, create a synergy with him, listen to his needs in order to improve the offer, the level of service and therefore customer satisfaction. Next to DOOH, it is necessary to introduce further and time-continuous monitoring tools, which map the entire customer's shopping experience into the point of sale. For this purpose the egocentric vision is introduced through the use of cam narratives on board the trolleys, which allow a timely story of the consumer, called Visual Market Basket Analysis (evolution of Market Basket Analysis), which generates process functional alerts to the improvement of
the service offered. The story of these approaches is provided in this PhD thesis, which tells the three-year course carried out, its experiments and possible future developments.
This study has been conducted thanks to the support of Centro Studi S.r.l., a sister company of a privately owned consumer goods distribution company called Orizzonti Holding Group, located in southern Italy. The study has been implemented through an industrial application approach, in a real context (Futura Supermarkets). Consequently, the PhD thesis has considered the typical difficulties of a challenging environment, starting from the creation and acquisition of a dataset to the integration of the approach in the current business processes.
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Pidhrushnyi, D. O. « Scenario analysis model of economic security components ». Thesis, Sumy State University, 2015. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/40837.
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Tendencies of recent years have shown that economic security is the
most important part of the sustainable development of nations and the
world in general. That is why the forefront every state puts improves their
economic situation, their international resource dependencies and explores
new methods of management economic situation.
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CALISAYA, EDGAR SARMIENTO. « ANALYSIS OF NATURAL LANGUAGE SCENARIOS ». PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2016. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=28193@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIROCOORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTS. DE ENSINO
PROGRAMA DE EXCELENCIA ACADEMICA
A análise de requisitos desempenha um papel fundamental no processo de desenvolvimento de software. Neste sentido, representações de cenários baseados em linguagem natural são muitas vezes utilizados para descrever especificações de requisitos de software (SRS). Cenários descritos usando linguagem natural podem ser ambíguos e, às vezes, imprecisos. Este problema é parcialmente devido ao fato de que os relacionamentos entre os cenários são raramente representados explicitamente. Como os cenários são utilizados como entrada para as actividades subsequentes do processo de desenvolvimento de software (SD), é muito importante facilitar a sua análise; especialmente para detectar defeitos devido a informações erradas ou falta de informação. Este trabalho propõe uma abordagem baseada em Redes de Petri e técnicas de Processamento de Linguagem Natural como uma forma eficaz para analisar os cenários adquiridos, e que toma descrições textuais de cenários (em conformidade com um metamodelo definido neste trabalho) como entrada e gera um relatório de análise como saída. Para facilitar a análise automática, os cenários são transformados em Redes de Petri (Lugar/Transição) equivalentes. Os cenários e suas Redes de Petri resultantes podem ser analisados automaticamente para avaliar algumas propriedades relacionadas à desambiguidade, completeza, consistência e corretude. Os defeitos identificados podem ser rastreados até os cenários, permitindo a sua revisão. Nós também discutimos como desambiguidade, completeza, consistência e corretude das SRSs baseadas em cenários podem ser decompostas em propriedades relacionadas, e definimos heurísticas para encontrar indicadores de defeitos que prejudicam estas propriedades. Avaliamos nosso trabalho, aplicando a nossa abordagem de análise em quatro estudos de caso. Essa avaliação compara os resultados obtidos pela nossa abordagem automatizada contra os resultados obtidos por um processo de inspeção e com trabalhos relacionados.
Requirements analysis plays a key role in the software development process. Natural language-based scenario representations are often used for writing software requirements specifications (SRS). Scenarios written using natural language may be ambiguous, and, sometimes, inaccurate. This problem is partially due to the fact that relationships among scenarios are rarely represented explicitly. As scenarios are used as input to subsequent activities of the software development process (SD), it is very important to enable their analysis; especially to detect defects due to wrong information or missing information. This work proposes a Petri-Net and Natural Language Processing (NLP) based approach as an effective way to analyze the acquired scenarios, which takes textual description of scenarios (conform to a metamodel defined in this work) as input and generates an analysis report as output. To enable the automated analysis, scenarios are translated into equivalent Place/Transition Petri-Nets. Scenarios and their resulting Petri-Nets can be automatically analyzed to evaluate some properties related to unambiguity, completeness, consistency and correctness. The identified defects can be traced back to the scenarios, allowing their revision. We also discuss how unambiguity, completeness, consistency and correctness of scenario-based SRSs can be decomposed in related properties, and define heuristics for searching defect indicators that hurt these properties. We evaluate our work by applying our analysis approach to four case studies. The evaluation compares the results achieved by our tool-supported approach, with an inspection based approach and with related work.
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Mahmoud, Mohammed. « Scenario Development for Water Resources Decision-making ». Diss., The University of Arizona, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/193925.
Texte intégralRésumé :
With ever-increasing pressures on limited water supplies in arid regions, water managers are forced to make critical decisions about the management of water resources - sometimes under considerable uncertainty. Given the large number of stresses on existing water systems, proper management requires the consideration of all different factors that may contribute to water use and consumption. As water management becomes more focused on the issue of sustainability, processes traditionally thought of as non-water-related and irrelevant to water management are now becoming very pertinent. In particular, the consequences of changes in climate, population, land use, and various types of water usage (agricultural, environmental, domestic, and urban) are of considerable interest.With increasing uncertainty about the future, conventional methods of decision-analysis are increasingly unable to suitably quantify the future impacts of policy decisions, and they are also unable to provide a clear contrast between impacts of historical policy decisions and possible future management decisions. An analytical approach that is sensitive to qualitative effects of water-related decision-making will therefore be more useful towards improving management practices. Scenario development is one such tool that can be used to examine future implications of water management, and thereby shed light on the potential consequences of implementing different operational and institutional policies. The objective of this work is to propose a formal scenario development methodology applicable to water resources management issues. This framework is applied and evaluated on a regional scale for the U.S. southwest and on a local scale for the state of Arizona.The research presented here is comprised of several components; (i) a review of existing literature on scenarios, scenario studies, and scenario applications; (ii) a retrospective analysis of water management-related scenario applications that examines the implications of scenario-influenced strategies previously implemented in Arizona, (iii) the adoption of a formal scenario development approach for water resource issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S., utilizing an example application in the Upper San Pedro Basin in southern Arizona, and (iv) a comprehensive application of the scenario development process to the Verde River Watershed in northern Arizona through a simplified small-scale scenario case study approach.
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Ljungström, Erica. « ISAT : Interactive Scenario Analysis Tool for financial forecasting ». Thesis, KTH, Skolan för informations- och kommunikationsteknik (ICT), 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-177128.
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Målet för denna studie har varit att skapa en första version för ett verktyg i vilket analytiker inom finans kan skapa sina långsiktiga scenarion och väga olika rikser samt möjligheter mot varandra.Idén till ett sådant verktyg har funnits inom företaget i flera år, men de tidigare idéerna har varit för specifika för att kunna användas. Detta har främst berott på tidsbrist samt att de som utvecklat dem inte har haft tillgång till en bra utvecklingsmiljö.De enda begränsningarna för verktyget har varit 1) ”Det behöer kunna visa inverkan av manipuleringar”, 2) ”det behöer finnas såmycket funktionalitet som möjligt, utan att det finns knappar överallt” och 3) ”det få inte ädra nåot av input datan”.Eftersom dessa är abstrakta specificationer behövdes mock-ups, observationer och användbarhetstest för att kunna skapa ett verktyg som förenklar de mest använda manipulationerna. Verktyget måste också låta användaren enkelt ticka i och ur sina manipulationer så att dessa inte behöver göras om varje gång användaren vill testa ett nytt utfall.Observationerna och testerna har visat att användarna jobbar på olika sätt, och därför behövde verktyget vara flexibelt. Detta innebar också att det behövdes både generella samt specifika manipulationer. De visade också att verktyget behövde delas in i två delar, en för att skapa rapporter och en för att visa rapporten. Detta då rapporteringsprocessen ej får ändras.Fokus för denna studie har varit MDI, Människa-datorinteraktion. Detta innebär att den färdiga produkten bör vara intuitiv och väldigt enkel att lära sig att använda för användarna. Detta kan vara svårt då användarna arbetar på mycket olika sätt.Den färdiga produkten för denna studie har lyckats klara alla de mål som satts upp. En mock-up som gjorde användarna nyfikna på programmet, skapades i Java. Det bestämdes därmed att detta var det programmeringsspråk som skulle användas. Ett användargränssnitt som var enkel, men samtidigt hade en komplex funktionalitet lades till.Detta gjorde att användarna frågade sig själva ”Kan det verkligen vara såhä enkelt?” samt ”Varfö har vi inte gjort detta innan?”. Tillslut skapades en fungerande produkt som var både enkel att använda samt att den gjorde många av de enkla beräkningarna åt analytikern.Den enda del som ej blivit fullt implementerad innan slutet för denna studie är mallen för de Excel rapporter som ska skapas av verktyget. Denna del av verktyget utformades av en ekonom som vet vilka grafer som kan vara intressanta att ta med i en rapport. Nu, när verktyget genererar en rapport, genereras endast de grafer som syns i verktyget, totalen för scenariona (uppdelade i olika kategorier) samt alla de manipuleringsrader som skapats för de tre olika scenariona.The goal with this study has been to create a first version for a tool in which financial analysts can create their long-term scenarios and weigh different risks and opportunities against each other.The idea to such a tool has been around for years within the company, but the earlier ideas were too specific to be usable. This has mainly been due to the lack of time and available tools to realize the ideas.The only restrictions for the tool have been 1) “It needs to show the impact of manipulations”, 2) “it needs as much functionality as possible without having buttons all over it” and 3) “it should not alter any of the input data”.Because these are quite abstract specifications, mock-ups, observations and usability tests have been used to create a tool that simplifies the most used manipulations and enables the user to tick in and out their manipulations so that the manipulation does not have to be redone every time the user wants to test a new outcome.The observations and tests have shown that the users work very differently from each other, and so, the tool needed to be very flexible. This meant that there needed to be both general and specific manipulations which are based on general formulas. It also showed that the tool needed to be split into two parts, one for creating and one for showing reports, because the reporting process should not be altered.The focus of this study has been HCI, Human Computer Interaction. This means that the finished product should be intuitive and also easy to learn how to operate by the users which could be difficult when the users do work in different ways. The resulting product of this study has reached all of the goals. A mock-up that got the users interested in the program was produced in Java, which decided the programming language. A GUI that was simple, yet had complex functionality was added. It made users ask themselves “Could it really be this easy?” and “Why have we not done this before?”. And, at last, a working product were produced, that was both simple to operate and at the same time did a lot of the calculations for the analyst.The only part of the product that has not been fully implemented before the endof this study is the template in which the Excel Report is supposed to be generated. This part of the tool was taken care of by an economist that knew which graphs that could be interesting to create a report of. Now, the tool generates a report with only the graphs that are shown in the tool, the totals for the scenarios (split into different categories) and all of the adjustment rows for the three scenarios.
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Badger, M. « Stormwater disconnection : transient scenario analysis of intervention flexibility ». Thesis, University of Sheffield, 2018. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/22562/.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Urban drainage networks protect people, society, and the environment from the hazards presented by domestic and industrial effluent, and urban stormwater run-off. However, urban drainage networks are financially and carbon intensive, and their failure results in damage to people and the environment. The likelihood and magnitude of failure is anticipated to increase in the future as a result of pressures including climate change and urbanisation. The rate and extent of these pressures manifesting is uncertain. Sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) are structural measures that can be retrofitted to replace or augment an urban drainage network, reducing the likelihood of failure now and in the future. Adaptation of infrastructure to encroaching future pressures requires infrastructure constructed in the present to be flexible. An existing method for assessing flexibility is combined with transient scenario analysis to enable the flexibility of conventional solutions, and source-control and regional-control retrofit SuDS interventions to be compared in two real-world case-study catchments. A new multi-criteria assessment framework is proposed for the comparison of these interventions. A method for distributing retrofit SuDS within an urban drainage catchment is developed from first principles. It is a hydraulic modelling method based on identifying potentially disparate locations within an urban drainage catchment that possess similar times of concentration to a point of interest within the network. The concept of the efficiency of stormwater disconnection is introduced. The developed method is shown to be more effective at identifying efficient disconnection locations than existing methods in two real-world case study catchments.
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Riaz, Shariq. « Generic Market Modelling for Future Grid Scenario Analysis ». Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/18121.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Power systems worldwide are moving away from being dominated by large-scale synchronous generation and passive consumers. Instead, in the future, new actors on both the generation and the load side will play an increasingly significant role. On the generation side, there are renewable energy resources (RES) such as wind generation (WG), photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar thermal (CST). On the load side, there are demand response (DR), energy storage and price responsive users equipped with a small-scale PV-battery system (called prosumers). The two sides will together shape future grids. However, if connected at a large scale without proper consideration of their effect, they can also jeopardise the reliability and security of electricity supply. For example, the addition of non-synchronous RES will jeopardise the frequency response of the future grids, while the intermittency and variability of RES threats the existing model of electricity supply (supply following demand), complicating balancing and stressing future grids’ ramping capabilities. On the other hand, the inclusion of DR, prosumers and storage without proper consideration of the implications can cause significant changes to the demand profiles and may result in new stresses such as secondary peaks or excessive ramps. In summary, balancing, stability (frequency, voltage, transient) and ultimately reliability are affected by the changes introduced to the future grids’ technology mix. Given that the lifespan of power system assets is well over fifty years, laying out a roadmap to future grid development in an economical fashion without risking its security is a challenging task. The uncertainty of cost, availability and quality of new technologies requires power system planners and policy-makers to evaluate the feasibility and viability of future grids for a diverse range of technology options. To this end, a rigorous and systematic approach is developed in this dissertation to analyse the implications of prosumers, storage and CST on the balancing and stability of future grids. The best features of all these approaches are combined and presented in a single coherent framework. Computation time improvement techniques are then deployed to improve the computational efficiency and solution accuracy. Taken as a whole, the tool will fill the gap to explore the validity of emerging technologies to tackle balancing, stability, security and reliability issues, over a diverse scope of uncertain premises. The tool is developed for an approach to future grids studies called scenario analysis. Traditionally, power systems are planned based on a handful of the most critical scenarios with an aim to find an optimal generation and/or transmission plan. In contradistinction, scenario analysis involves analysing possible evolutionary pathways to facilitate informed decision making by policy-makers and system planners. Specifically, the primary aim of future grids studies is to deal with the uncertainty of long-term decision making and providing outcomes that are technically possible, although explicit costing might be considered. To this end, for any future grids stability framework, the market model is a critical bottleneck. Existing future grids studies mostly look at simple balancing, ignore network constraints and include most of the emerging technologies in an ad hoc fashion. These simplifications are made to combat the high computation time requirement of accurate approaches. Against this backdrop, this dissertation presents: i) a novel optimisation-based models to capture the effects of prosumers (Chapter 2, 3); ii) co-optimise dispatch of PV and CST aggregation to reduce ramping stress on the conventional generators (Chapter 4); iii) efficiently implemented market-based dispatch (Chapter 5); iv) framework for frequency performance assessment of future grids (Chapter 6). In more detail, first, Chapter 2 and 3 develop a novel approach to explicitly model prosumers’ demand in market dispatch (production cost) models. The key novelty of the method is its ability to capture the impact of prosumers without going into specific market structure or control mechanisms, which are computationally expensive. The model is formulated as a bi-level program in which the upper-level unit commitment (UC) problem minimises the total generation cost and the lower-level problem maximises prosumers’ aggregate self-consumption. Unlike the existing bi-level optimisation frameworks that focus on the interaction between the wholesale market and an aggregator, the coupling is through the prosumers’ demand, not through the electricity price. That renders the proposed model market structure agnostic, making it suitable for future grids studies where the market structure is potentially unknown. This model addresses some critical questions such as, How much flexibility can prosumer provide to help with large-scale RES integration? Flexibility is the key to achieve a high RES penetration. One of the major problem in the integration of RES is their intermittent and variable nature. Concentrated solar thermal (CST) presents an excellent resource with inherent flexibility. In contrast to Chapter 2 and 3 (exploring flexibility through DSM), Chapter 4 examines flexibility options from a generation end. In particular, it proposes an RES aggregation (REA) scheme aiming to co-optimise the dispatch of intermittent and dispatchable RES. The principal aim is to keep in check the ramping stress imposed on the conventional generators due to the RES integration. A Stackelberg game is used to capture the interaction between an independent system operator (ISO) and the REA when the ISO tries to minimise the generation cost, while REA seeks to maximise its revenue. This approach also highlights the potential of a ramping market, as proposed by some US studies. In Chapter 5, the utility storage proposed in Chapter 2, prosumers model proposed in Chapter 3, the dispatch model of CST developed in Chapter 4 and inertia constraint detailed in Chapter 6 are combined into a single coherent framework. The addition of these emerging technologies in the energy market model significantly increases the computation burden. Also, to allow for a subsequent stability assessment, an accurate representation of the number of online generation units is required, which affects the power system inertia and the reactive power support capability. This renders a fully-fledged market model computationally intractable, so in Chapter 5 we deploy unit clustering, a rolling-horizon optimisation approach and constraint clipping to improve the computational efficiency. Together, these comprise a computationally efficient market simulation tool (MST) suitable for future grid stability analysis. Finally, developed MST is used in Chapter 6 for a comprehensive frequency performance assessment of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). First, an assessment of minimum inertia requirements is presented, followed by a framework for frequency performance assessment of future grids. The maximum non-synchronous instantaneous range from a frequency performance point of view is established for the NEM. Also, to alleviate the deteriorating effects of the high RES penetration on frequency performance, different technical solutions are proposed and discussed. These efforts will empower policy-makers and system planners with the information on safe penetration levels of different technologies while ensuring reliability and security of future grids.
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Harikrishnan, Yamini. « Performance analysis of vehicular networks for motorway scenario ». Thesis, Swansea University, 2011. https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa42234.
Texte intégralLivres sur le sujet "Scenario analysi"
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National Disaster Management Authority (Pakistan). Mansehra City's earthquake scenario. Islamabad : National Disaster Management Authority, 2009.
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Hassani, Bertrand K. Scenario Analysis in Risk Management. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25056-4.
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C, Jager J., et Ruitenberg E. Joost, dir. AIDS impact assessment : Modelling and scenario analysis. Amsterdam : Elsevier, 1992.
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Choromanski, Kacper. Bloodstain Pattern Analysis in Crime Scenarios. Singapore : Springer Singapore, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-4428-0.
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von, Gadow Klaus, Nagel Jürgen 1942- et Saborowski Joachim 1950-, dir. Continuous cover forestry : Assessment, analysis, scenarios. Dordrecht : Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2002.
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Group, WEFA, dir. World steel forecast : Multi-scenario analysis through 1994. Bala Cynwyd, Pa., USA (150 Monument Rd., Bala Cynwyd 19004-1780) : WEFA Group, 1989.
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Teresa, Ribeiro, et European Environment Agency, dir. Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessments. Luxembourg : Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2001.
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Beken, T. vander. European organised crime scenarios for 2015. Antwerp, Belgium : Maklu, 2006.
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Kottemann Ph.D, Jeffrey E. Illuminating Statistical Analysis Using Scenarios and Simulations. Hoboken, NJ, USA : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119296386.
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Glau, Gregory R. Scenarios for writing : Issues, analysis, and response. Mountain View, Calif : Mayfield Pub. Co., 2001.
Trouver le texte intégralChapitres de livres sur le sujet "Scenario analysi"
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Cairns, George, et George Wright. « Scenarios and Decision Analysis ». Dans Scenario Thinking, 105–23. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49067-0_5.
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Wright, George, et George Cairns. « Scenarios and Decision Analysis ». Dans Scenario Thinking, 103–15. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230306899_6.
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Gass, Saul I., et Carl M. Harris. « Scenario analysis ». Dans Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, 734. New York, NY : Springer US, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-0611-x_922.
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Levy, Adam B. « Scenario Analysis ». Dans SpringerBriefs in Optimization, 43–53. New York, NY : Springer New York, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-4642-2_3.
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Rossi, Marco, Julia Merino, Carlos Madina, Elena Turienzo, Harald Svendsen, Pirkko Kuusela et Pekka Koponen. « Scenario Analysis ». Dans TSO-DSO Interactions and Ancillary Services in Electricity Transmission and Distribution Networks, 93–139. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-29203-4_5.
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Ezroj, Aaron. « Scenario analysis ». Dans Carbon Risk and Green Finance, 68–90. Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2021. | Series : Banking, money and international finance : Routledge, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003095996-6.
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Li, Lailai, Leon Braat, Guangchun Lei, Eric Arets, Junguo Liu, Luguang Jiang, Zemeng Fan, Wenman Liu, Honglin He et Xiaofang Sun. « Scenario Analysis ». Dans Ecosystem Services and Management Strategy in China, 25–72. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38733-3_4.
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O’Mara, Shane. « Concluding Scenario Analysis ». Dans A Brain for Business – A Brain for Life, 155–56. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49154-7_11.
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Capolongo, Stefano, Maddalena Buffoli, Michela di Noia, Marco Gola et Marco Rostagno. « Current Scenario Analysis ». Dans Improving Sustainability During Hospital Design and Operation, 11–22. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-14036-0_2.
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Yoe, Charles. « Probabilistic Scenario Analysis ». Dans Principles of Risk Analysis, 549–70. Second edition. | Boca Raton : Taylor and Francis, CRC Press, 2019. : CRC Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9780429021121-16.
Texte intégralActes de conférences sur le sujet "Scenario analysi"
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Llana, Patricia G. « Structural Crashworthiness Standards Comparison : Grade-Crossing Collision Scenarios ». Dans ASME 2009 Rail Transportation Division Fall Technical Conference. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/rtdf2009-18030.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In support of the Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) Railroad Equipment Safety Program, American and European grade-crossing collision scenarios were evaluated and compared. Finite element analyses (FEA) were employed to subject an FRA-compliant passenger car to grade-crossing collision scenarios defined in both the proposed FRA Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) and European Standard (EN) 15227. The proposed FRA collision scenario involved a single car impacted by a cart. The cart had a punch mounted to it to hit a specific post of the end frame of the car. The EN 15227 collision scenario involved a complete train consist impacting a large deformable obstacle that approximates a lorry. The analyses show that these collision scenarios, while both grade-crossing scenarios, are very different not only in terms of the impact object and the amount of initial kinetic energy involved, but also in terms of how the car is loaded and deformed during impact. The FRA scenario is shown to be easier to analyze as well as easier to test than the EN 15227 scenario. Additionally, the FRA scenario is safer to test because of the levels of initial energy involved. The FRA scenario also provides clearer metrics of success. The FRA-compliant car utilized in the analyses and test conducted for this paper passed both FRA and EN 15227 grade-crossing collision scenarios according to the requirements for each respective standard. However, the analyses show that despite both scenarios providing for energy absorption in a grade-crossing collision, because the manner in which the car is loaded and deformed (concentrated vs. distributed) is different, the FRA performance standard and EN 15227 grade-crossing collision scenarios are not equivalent and mutual compliance is not guaranteed.
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Sallaberry, Cédric J., Robert E. Kurth, Frederick W. Brust et Elizabeth A. Kurth. « Proposed Approach of Scenario Analysis Using a Probabilistic Code ». Dans ASME 2017 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2017-65989.
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The following paper presents a global methodology to analyze the set of results generated by a probabilistic analysis. The approach regroups traditional analyses such as Sensitivity Analysis (SA), Uncertainty Analysis (UA), and stability analysis as well as sensitivity studies (both deterministic and probabilistic) with enhanced sampling techniques (double loop to separate aleatory from epistemic uncertainty, importance sampling, adaptive sampling) in an incremental set of steps, with the goal to give the analyst and decision maker the most comprehensive and defensible collection of results. An example using the xLPR code and a selected scenario is used to illustrate each step of the approach.
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Monteiro, E., R. De Almeida, A. Rouboa, Theodore E. Simos, George Psihoyios et Ch Tsitouras. « Initial Conditions Optimization in Casting Scenario ». Dans Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics. AIP, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.2790233.
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Kundzina, Laila, Baiba Rivza et Peteris Rivza. « Fundraising scenarios for state-founded universities ». Dans 23rd International Scientific Conference. “Economic Science for Rural Development 2022”. Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies. Faculty of Economics and Social Development, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.22616/esrd.2022.56.029.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The creation of fundraising scenarios for state-founded universities and the selection of the most appropriate scenario is an important factor in the successful attraction of donations. The study will provide an analysis of three possible scenarios for fundraising, which have been evaluated by seven experts: representatives of patrons as private persons and enterprises, patron's fellow, a representative of the municipality, a representative of the Ministry of Education and Science, a representative of a higher education institution and a representative of a foundation. The first scenario consists of activities aimed at maintaining the existing fundraising trends. The second scenario is associated with a greater involvement of the municipality in attracting patrons to universities, whereas the third scenario comprises a greater state involvement in attracting patrons to universities. Expert opinions were processed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. Choosing the best-case scenario will create an opportunity for philanthropic organizations of 12 state-founded universities to cooperate more fully with patrons in fundraising for their universities, projects and students.
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Sheng, Tianyi, et Xiaoli Qiu. « Scenario-based public nebulization equipment prototype design for inhaled vaccine application ». Dans Intelligent Human Systems Integration (IHSI 2023) Integrating People and Intelligent Systems. AHFE International, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1002898.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Vaccination is becoming one of the most important epidemic control measures in the post-pandemic era, and the pandemic has accelerated the development of various forms of COVID-19 vaccines. The inhaled vaccine has entered clinical trials as a more convenient form of vaccination. However, the nebulization equipment used in the experiments was not specifically designed for the public health care scenario of inhaled vaccine nebulization. It could not reflect the advantages and characteristics of the inhaled vaccine. This study is based on the scenario-based design theory to design practical application solutions for inhaled vaccine nebulization equipment. Methods: Using a scenario simulation experiment and semi-structured interviews we identified the behavioral requirements of medical staff in the inhaled vaccination scenario and invited expert participants to validate. Results: Based on interview analysis, 20 behavioral requirements and an inhaled vaccine medical staff persona were identified. Five optimized scenarios were designed according to scenario-based design theory. Scenarios were evaluated by expert participants, and the prototype was developed based on feedback. The prototype design concept focused on "optimizing human-machine interaction", "improving disposable inhaler design", and "optimizing vaccine reagent dosing process". Conclusion: The prototype was evaluated by experts to be effective and reasonable for practical application scenarios of the inhaled vaccine. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for innovative product design in public medical service scenarios.
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Hotz, Nico, Heng Pan, Costas P. Grigoropoulos et Seung H. Ko. « Exergetic Analysis of Solar-Powered Hybrid Energy Conversion and Storage Scenarios for Stationary Applications ». Dans ASME 2010 4th International Conference on Energy Sustainability. ASMEDC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/es2010-90255.
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The idea of this study is to investigate possibilities to use sunlight as the main energy source to generate and store electrical energy via different methods and technologies. Several systems consisting of photovoltaics, photoelectrolytic converters and solarthermal reformers in combination with fuel cells have been investigated in terms of efficiency and costs. A simple energetic approach would not account for these different kinds of energy and their differing availabilities (radiant, thermal, chemical, and electrical energy). To consider different forms of energy and compare them in a fair manner, exergy as the useful part of energy (the part that can theoretically be completely converted to work) provides a perfect instrument for dealing with complex energy conversion systems. In this study, four different scenarios have been investigated: Scenario A describes the direct conversion of sunlight to electricity by photovoltaics. The electric power is used in a Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) electrolyzer to split water to hydrogen which is stored in a pressure tank. A PEM fuel cell converts hydrogen to electricity on demand. Scenario B deals with a photoelectrolytic cell splitting water to hydrogen by solar irradiation combined with a storage tank and a fuel cell. In Scenario C, solar radiation is converted by photovoltaic cells to electricity which is stored in different types of batteries. Scenario D combines a methanol steam reformer heated by solar power with a PEM fuel cell to generate electricity. The reformate gas mixture can be stored at elevated pressure in a gas tank. In contrast to routes A–C, scenario D has two exergy inputs: Solar radiation and chemical exergy in form of methanol as fuel. All systems are analyzed for an average day in July and February in Central California, including a storage device sufficient to store the energy for one week. Scenario D reaches an overall exergetic efficiency of more than 25% in summer at the expense of an additional exergy input in the form of methanol. The exergetic efficiency of scenario C amounts to 10–17% in summer (4–6% in winter) depending on the battery type and scenarios A and B achieve less than 10% efficiency even in summer. The systems of scenarios A and C would cost around $20k–$45k per 1 kW average electricity generation during the day in July. Scenario D leads to significantly lower costs and scenario B is the most expensive design due to the current immaturity of photoelectrolytic devices.
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Volkova, Elena, et Vladimir Gisin. « Scenario approach to evaluating decisions in strategic planning ». Dans Systems Analysis in Economics - 2020. Moscow, "Science" Publishing House, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.33278/sae-2020.book1.104-107.
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Khayyati, Ahmad, et Mohammad Pourgol-Mohammad. « Developing an Efficient Approach for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Reliability Analysis ». Dans ASME 2020 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2020-24079.
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Abstract Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) are increasingly get popularity in many applications. Their operation requires high level of safety and reliability to accomplish successful missions. In this study, the reliability was comparatively analyzed by different available approaches to select the efficient method. First, failure model of the system is developed. Then, three different scenarios are considered to study the effect of redundancies on the system reliability results. In the first scenario, there is no redundancy where in the second scenario there is only one redundant component and in the third scenario, there are three redundant components. Static reliability analysis such as Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), Markov Chain (MC), and Bayesian Networks (BN) are applied on proposed scenarios and results are obtained. Regarding to time dependencies between redundant components, a dynamic-based methodology is also developed in this study through applying Dynamic Fault Tree (DFT) analysis. Proposed static and dynamic approaches are applied on an UAV as a case study and results are discussed. Finally, characteristics of each methodology and related conditions are clarified for selecting the efficient reliability analysis approach.
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Wakasugi, Keiichiro, Kunihiko Nakajima, Hidenori Shimemoto, Masahiro Shibata et Masaaki Yamaguchi. « Bounding Analysis of Uplift and Erosion Scenario for an HLW Repository ». Dans 2013 21st International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone21-16724.
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Uplift and erosion scenarios must be analysed since these natural phenomena are expected to be inevitable at most districts in Japan. It is increasingly important to enhance the confidence in uplift and erosion scenarios even if these processes occur far into the future, since performance assessment cut-off times have not yet been defined. In this context, this study specifies uplift and erosion scenarios considering uplift and fluvial erosion based on Japanese geological and topographical characteristics and describes a conceptual model focused on a comprehensive fluvial erosion process that were based on generalisations of field observations. A series of bounding analyses have been carried out to define parameter conditions to satisfy hypothetical dose criteria considering various uplift and erosion rates and transmissivities. The results based on the conservative assumptions show that there are some cases that satisfy the hypothetical dose criterion in each phase for the likely scenario (base scenario: 10 μSv/y), which is a targeted dose suggested by the Nuclear Safety Commission for sub-surface disposal. All cases are below 300 μSv/y, which is the targeted dose for the less-likely scenario (variant scenario) as well as the dose constraint for radioactive waste disposal by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The discussion also provides that a loss of inventory in the engineered barrier system by accelerating release of nuclides does not significantly decrease the doses in later phases due to inherent attributes of the repository system, i.e. multiple barriers and multiple safety functions. In principle, the influence of uplift and erosion should be reduced by appropriate site selection and design, to the extent possible; to ensure that sufficient nuclides decay while the repository is deep underground.
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Chen, Yingting, Taro Kanno et Kazuo Furuta. « Complex Scenario Design for Investigating Cognitive Process for Problem-Solving Collaboration ». Dans 13th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE 2022). AHFE International, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1002248.
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Complex problem solving (CPS) has been a field that uses computer-simulated scenarios and has been applied in problem-solving-related studies. However, the problem scenario has not been thoroughly discussed as an essential factor in determining the reliability of the studies. Consequently, there are no systematic principles for scenario design in CPS studies. This study was performed to establish fundamental standards for complexity analysis in the CPS scenario design. We created a high-fidelity problem scenario to investigate the cognitive processes in CPS discussions. The reliability of the system and scenario was validated by five industrial experts. The findings of this study can be applied to future experiment designs, meta-analysis methods, and study replications.
Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Scenario analysi"
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Hernandez-Abrams, Darixa, Carra Carrillo et Todd Swannack. Scenario analyses in ecological modeling and ecosystem management. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), juillet 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/44840.
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Ecosystem management and restoration practitioners are challenged with complex problems, diverse project goals, multiple management alternatives, and potential future scenarios that change the systems of interest. Scenario analysis aids in forecasting, evaluating, and communicating outcomes of potential management actions under different plausible conditions, such as land-use change or sea level rise. However, little guidance exists for practitioners on the utility and execution of scenario analysis. Therefore, this technical note highlights the usefulness of scenario analysis as a tool for addressing uncertainty in potential project outcomes. The mechanics of the scenario-analysis process are explained, and examples of different types of scenario analyses are described for context on the breadth of its use. Lastly, two hypothetical case studies of scenario analysis in ecological modeling are presented showing a semiquantitative approach for assessing anadromous fish and a quantitative approach examining freshwater mussel habitat. Overall, this technical note provides a brief review of the utility and application of scenario analyses in the context of ecological modeling and ecosystem management decision-making.
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Baum, Gregory A. Scenario Analysis Guide. Test accounts, avril 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1178356.
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Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia, John R. Lewis, Dusty Marie Brooks, Nevin Martin, Lauren Hund, Andrew Jordan Clark et Paul Mariner. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), mars 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1347888.
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Harris, Kathleen, et Travis Dahl. Technical assessment of the Old, Mississippi, Atchafalaya, and Red (OMAR) Rivers : HEC-RAS BSTEM analysis of the Atchafalaya River. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), août 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/45174.
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This report documents the bank erosion modeling performed under Task 6 (HEC-RAS Sediment Modeling) of the Old, Mississippi, Atchafalaya, and Red (OMAR) Rivers System Technical Assessment. The objectives of the bank erosion modeling effort were to compare the relative impact various flow scenarios might have on bank retreat on a stretch of the Atchafalaya River between Simmesport, LA, and the Whiskey Bay Pilot Channel. The effort included compilation of field and soil boring data, selection of bank retreat sites, creation of representative soil profiles for the reach, calibration of soil parameters to measured retreat rates, and modeling bank retreat and volume of material eroded under various flow scenarios. This modeling effort was intended for scenario comparison and should not be used as a prediction of exact rates of bank erosion. The study found that varying the amount of flow entering the Atchafalaya River from the Mississippi River could increase dramatically or significantly reduce the extent of bank erosion, relative to the current management scenario.
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Robinson, Stephen M. Scenario Analysis : Applications and Extensions. Fort Belvoir, VA : Defense Technical Information Center, novembre 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada275452.
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Gayle, Thomas R., Kenneth Lee Summers, John Jungels et Fred J. Oppel III. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), janvier 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1168945.
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Arthur, E. D., D. Beller, G. H. Canavan, R. A. Krakowski, P. Peterson et R. L. Wagner. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), juillet 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/759195.
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Ghosh, Emily, Anisha Nazareth et Omar Aponte. Genesee - Finger Lakes Emissions Scenario Analysis. Stockholm Environment Institute, février 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.51414/sei2023.008.
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Donohue, Patrick, Ronald Copeland et James Lewis. Technical assessment of the Old, Mississippi, Atchafalaya, and Red (OMAR) Rivers : Atchafalaya River HEC-6T model. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), août 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/45161.
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The HEC-6T one-dimensional numerical sedimentation model was used to evaluate the long-term and system-wide sedimentation effects of modifying the operation schedule at the Old River Control Complex (ORCC). The changes evaluated were increasing and decreasing the percentage of flow that is diverted to the Atchafalaya River from the Mississippi River at the ORCC and modifying the distributions through the four ORCC structures. Sedimentation effects for several operation scenarios were compared to a Base Condition that represented the existing operation protocols. Additionally, a dredging scenario was developed and analyzed. This scenario featured dredging material from the Mississippi River and depositing it into the Outflow Channel, downstream of the ORCC. The predictive simulations extended for 50 years. The model was used to calculate and compare sand transport past various gages along the Atchafalaya River. Also, the model compared differences in water surface elevations and bed elevations using a specific gage analysis at several gages along the Atchafalaya River. Last, the effects of the various scenarios on annual dredging requirements in Berwick Bay were also determined.
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Siddiqui, Afzal S., et Chris Marnay. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), décembre 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/928867.
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