Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Sales, Conditional – European Union countries »

The article is devoted to the assessment of the organizational and economic basis of the functioning of the milk market in the conditions of Ukraine’s membership in the EU. The main reasons for the reduction of the number of cows both in agricultural enterprises and households have been established. It has been proven that in the current conditions, the subjects of entrepreneurial activity – producers of dairy products do not have the opportunity to carry out even a simple reproduction of the cow population at the expense of their own sources. Today, the system of tribal service, which existed earlier in Ukraine and made it possible to conduct tribal affairs at the proper level, does not work. Therefore, further increase in productivity and improvement of animal reproduction indicators are extremely problematic due to the lack of a modern breeding system in animal husbandry. It has been established that most dairy farms have passed the stage of modernization of the material and technical base, which ensures the production of high-quality milk. In our opinion, subjects of entrepreneurial activity in the field of agro business – milk producers can compete with agricultural producers from EU countries in the presence of effective state support for dairy farming and the observance of partnership relations with processing enterprises and trade. The introduction of innovative technologies in dairy farming, especially agricultural enterprises, ensures a high level of milk productivity of cows, which corresponds to the corresponding values ​​of the average annual milk yield of most countries of the European Union. The analysis of benefits and risks for dairy farming from Ukraine’s participation in the EU makes it possible to determine the directions of the national policy in terms of reducing risks, neutralizing negative consequences and accelerating the realization of benefits from the liberalization of trade regimes: promotion of exports with the aim of expanding foreign sales markets for Ukrainian exporters of dairy products; stimulation of domestic demand for milk and milk products; increasing the competitiveness of domestic producers of milk and milk products on the basis of improving the quality and safety of products due to the implementation of international quality standards; ensuring the competitiveness of domestic producers on domestic and foreign markets in accordance with effective state support measures for mixed agricultural enterprises – milk producers with the aim of attracting private investments for their development; avoiding negative impacts on personal peasant farms on the basis of the development of service and sales cooperation, the formation of the appropriate infrastructure, financial support for the process of transformation of commercial personal peasant farms into small agribusiness subjects – milk producers; promotion of rural development, active use of the benefits of the “green box” by the World Trade Organization.

The signing on February 4, 2022 in Beijing of a joint Russian-Chinese statement "On international relations entering a new era and global sustainable development" and a block of bilateral trade, economic and energy agreements means a qualitative expansion of the scope of the strategic partnership between the two countries. Russia and China politically position themselves not only as a global and regional center of power and security, but also as powers that offer the world the development of common human values and concepts - democracy, indivisible security, openness and equality, oppose the politicization of sports, for the expansion of anti-pandemic measures to combat the common evil of COVID-19. China supported the proposals put forward by Russia on its security guarantees in Europe, which helps to further form a common strategic space of Eurasian security from the western part of the Pacific Ocean to the Eastern European conditional line "Black Sea - Belarus". There is no need to reformat the Russian-Chinese strategic partnership into a military alliance in modern conditions. The economic block of cooperation is based on systemic and mutually beneficial energy cooperation, which is implemented in the increase in successful gas contracts, including transactions for the sale of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline gas, oil projects and sales, the construction of new power units by Russia at Chinese nuclear power plants (NPPs), and the expansion of supplies coal, etc. In the context of a significant increase in the volume of Russian-Chinese trade in 2021 by a third compared to 2020, the expansion of the practice of settlements in national currencies (ruble - yuan), bypassing the dollar, acquires additional importance. In the face of American threats to shut down the SWIFT international payment system, it is relevant to create an independent Russian-Chinese payment system for transactions that provides not only energy transactions, but also the entire range of bilateral trade, economic and interbank transactions. The formation of the Greater Eurasian Partnership involves a wide range of trade, economic, investment, transport and institutional measures to deepen Eurasian cooperation. The key component in this area is to increase the efficiency of the process of interface between the projects of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the Chinese initiative "One Belt and One Road", the implementation of joint mutually beneficial infrastructure projects.

AbstractThe aim of this paper is to analyze if the Western Balkan and Eastern Partnership countries converge towards the twenty-eight members of the European Union. The relationships between the selected macroeconomic variables and per capita GDP growth rate are econometrically tested to support this research. The analyzed period is 2004–2017, with two sub-periods: 2004–2008 and 2009–2013. The subdivision is made to test whether the recent financial crisis affected the absolute and conditional convergence process in the analyzed group of countries. The empirical findings support the economic convergence hypothesis. The results show that the recent financial crisis negatively affected the absolute and conditional convergence process, when economic variables are included in the analysis. The negative effects of the crisis on conditional convergence with economic and socio-political variables are not identified. The poorer countries in the analyzed group should do more to attract investment and open their economies, as gross fixed capital formation and economic openness have a positive impact on per capita growth, and keep low inflation or stabilize it, while general government debt and unemployment should be decreased in the examined sample of countries.

The advent of the 4th Industrial Revolution has made it inevitable for firms worldwide to modify their business models to integrate ICTs into their operations. The lockdown measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic appear to have accelerated this process as many businesses, particularly in the hospitality industry, had to shut down their operations. Others also had to resort to conducting their businesses solely online. Thus, it has been argued that e-commerce has thrived during the lockdown period. Concentrating on the current 27 European Union (EU) member countries, this paper seeks to answer the following question: To what extent the COVID-19 impacted e-commerce has? Trend analyses and a paired samples t-test are used to compare the mean percentage of enterprises with e-commerce sales before the pandemic and the first year. The study finds a significant increase in the percentage of enterprises that made e-commerce sales during the first year of the pandemic compared to the previous year (t=-2.06; df=25). Except for the western EU member countries, all other regions increased the percentage of enterprises that made e-commerce sales, with the southern EU countries witnessing the highest increase. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economic activity worldwide. Despite the progress made by vaccination campaigns, important uncertainties still linger amid persistent global value chains disruptions and the ongoing energy crisis. A proper understanding of the behavior of the economy is therefore essential for future policy decisions. While there are plenty of studies regarding business cycles, using various methods from univariate filters to more complex methods, less papers focus on large scale comparisons. In this paper, we provide an overview of business cycles in European Union countries. We use the Hodrick-Prescott filter in order to measure the cyclical component of the gross domestic product and the Bry-Boschan-Quarterly algorithm for further analysis, namely the duration and the amplitude of the business cycles. Our results show that their size in European Union countries varies from 2.7 to 6 years and their amplitude is between 1.6 and 5.6 percentage points. We show that in developed economies, business cycles are more stable. Furthermore, strong correlations in terms of business cycles are found in the case of certain groups of countries, such as the Baltic ones or Belgium, Austria and France. In the case of Romania, its business cycle is more similar to the one of Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia. These results could provide useful information for policymakers in terms of future policy decisions conditional on both the current state of the economy and its structural characteristics. Under these circumstances, support measures should also take into consideration such properties of the economy.

Being established from the initiative of six visionary countries in the second half of the 20th century, the European Economic Community has shifted the history of the European continent by promoting economic collaboration and political stability. Given its initial success, the regional group has quickly evolved from customs union to Economic and Monetary Union, comprising nowadays twenty-seven European countries. Although the European Union has successfully managed political, economic, social and even sanitary turmoil, the stability of the European architecture continues to be threatened by the heterogeneity of its members. In this respect, one of the main challenges for the European Union in its current composition aims the convergence of the economic performance between countries and regions. The purpose of this paper is to study the economic growth patterns in the European Union during 2000 and 2019, also conducting a comparative analysis between New and Old Member States. In order to capture the European economic landscape, the methodology was based on conditional β-convergence and the estimates were conducted by using ordinary least squares and generalized least squares with fixed effects. We have tried to find the relationship between the lagged value of GDP per capita and the subsequent growth rates, but also to study the influence of macroeconomic and social-related variables. By estimating regressions based on panel data, we have found evidence in favor of income convergence in the European Union, based on the inverse relationship between the lagged value of GDP per capita and the annual growth rates. Moreover, the comparative analysis between the New and Old Members illustrated that convergence was stronger in the latter group, given the sound macroeconomic and social environment. The empirical analysis suggested that the economic growth process both at aggregate and subgroup level was enhanced by investment, exports of goods and services, sound public finances and the increase of percentage of population with tertiary education. Consequently, in order to increase the cohesion between Members and to avoid separatist movements, the European decision-makers should strengthen the macroeconomic and social frameworks, maintaining a sustainable economic growth trajectory for both the New Members from Central and Eastern Europe and the Old Member States.

The objective of this study is to explore the impact of electronic commerce on employment rate for a sample covering the whole 27 Member States of the European Union (EU-27), from 2010 to 2019. Moreover, this research explores the clusters of nations with reference to electronic commerce adoption and employment rate dynamics. The outcomes of cluster analysis show that Western Europe reveals the most developed e-commerce marketplace in EU-27, shown by Internet accessibility and high penetration rate of digital tools, and the lowest figures are registered in the Eastern part of Europe. Furthermore, the empirical findings of the panel data fixed-effects and the generalized least squares regressions suggest that electronic commerce influences employment rate positively. By including country-level control variables (real GDP growth rate, research and development expenditure, employed ICT specialists, enterprises with Internet access), the outcomes reveal that one percentage change in enterprises’ total turnover from e-commerce sales, enterprises’ turnover from web sales, and enterprises with e-commerce sales of at least 1% turnover will increase employment rate by 0.205, 0.258, and 0.350 percentage points. Furthermore, the econometric evidence from the method of moments quantile regression models with fixed effects reinforces our findings. Enterprises’ total turnover from e-commerce sales and the percentage of enterprises with e-commerce sales of at least 1% turnover positively influence employment rate for all quintiles, but in the case of enterprises’ turnover from web sales, the effect is positive only for the quintiles ranging from 0.5–0.8.

This paper focuses on the process of convergence in per capita CO2 emissions that would occur if the measures taken by the European Union to meet the Kyoto Protocol commitments had been effective. We apply a time series and cross-sectional analysis to test for the existence of convergence among countries and for different economic sectors. The sample covers data for the 28 member countries from 1960 to 2012. The results show weak absolute convergence across countries but clear evidence of conditional convergence, with GDP, the weight of industrial sector and the use of renewable energies being the main drivers of divergence. Concerning sectors, there is an increase of emissions in the agricultural sector, but a reduction in the industrial and energy sectors. Different patterns arise in the energy subsectors where manufacturing and electricity notably reduced their emissions while the transport sector increased them in all countries.

The issue of distribution trade cost analysis is continuously topical, significant and complex. Due to the fact that costs, in addition to sales revenue, affect the realization of the target profit in the distribution trade, it is necessary to manage costs in distribution trade as efficiently as possible by applying modern concepts. Starting from here, this paper comparatively analyzes the impact of employee costs (personnel costs) on the efficiency of distribution trade between the European Union and Serbia. In this context, it was determined that Germany, France and Italy (leading countries of the European Union) are in the first three places according to the efficiency cost of employees in the distribution trade. Serbia's distribution trade is ranked twenty-fifth in terms of efficiency cost of employees. From this aspect, it is better than the countries in the region (Croatia, Slovenia). According to the results of the linear regression analysis, the efficiency cost of employees in the distribution trade of Serbia is greatly influenced by: number of employees, assets (as a measure of company size), capital, sales and profit (Adjusted R Square .999). In this context, capital, i.e. financial indebtedness, has a special influence on efficiency cost (Sig. .014 <.05). Given that, in order to achieve the target costs of employees, as a factor of performance, in the distribution trade of Serbia, it is necessary to manage human resources, assets, capital, sales and profits as efficiently as possible.

Abstract This paper attempts to test for inflation convergence in a sample of 24 European Union countries. To tackle this issue, first- and second-generation panel unit root and stationarity tests are employed so as to provide evidence of inflation convergence before and after the launch of the single currency, the euro. We also test for and then allow for cross-sectional dependence. In general, the findings reveal that conditional inflation convergence exists for all panels under study. The estimation of half lives shows that the evidence for faster speed of convergence applies for the new member states followed by the core countries and the old member states. JEL classifications: C33, E3, F33 Keywords: Inflation Convergence, EU, Maastricht Criteria, Panel data

This chapter examines the equity implications of the “bottom-up” approach to climate change negotiations by analyzing the individual country unconditional greenhouse gas reduction pledges specified in the COP21 Agreement of 2015. It compares the implications before and after emissions trading in terms of the standard equity metrics of the Gini coefficient and Atkinson index for three major countries/regions: the European Union, China, and California. The chapter adapts a nonlinear programming model well suited to this purpose that determines the equilibrium emissions allowance price, mitigation costs, and allowance purchases and sales from trading. It also tests the sensitivity of the results to macroeconomic conditions and technological change. The findings are that the pledges made at COP21 reflect substantial inequality in general and run counter to most equity principles. They are definitely a major departure from the Egalitarian, Vertical, and Rawlsian equity principles proposed for many years by developing countries.

Abstract This chapter describes patterns, trends and determinants of public Euroscepticism in East Central Europe (ECE). It investigates whether public opinion on European integration in this region is connected to the contestation of both the immigration policies and the constitutional principles of the EU by the respective national governments. By applying longitudinal and comparative analyses based on European Election Studies from 2004 to 2019, it shows public support for European integration in ECE as more closely linked to instrumental performance assessments than in the EU average and as structured by country-specific rather than region-specific patterns. Cultural issues, like immigration and conceptions of democracy, which dominate ECE governmental politics, are only related to public Euroscepticism in some of those countries. Based on these results, the chapter suggests that the connection between the illiberal and anti-EU politics of ECE national governments and public Euroscepticism is loose and conditional upon the national context.

AbstractThis Chapter shows that there still exist urgent actions possible with existing tools and procedures for breaking the prisoner dilemma through modalities of solidarity leading to more responsibility. These feasible solutions are simple recipes based upon past experiences for opening again the European Union (EU) win–win game by activating conditional incentives able to enhance channelled financial market reactions favourable to adjusting countries, preventing self-fulfilling speculation and benefiting the whole EU.

In this chapter, interlinkages between stock markets in CEE-4 countries and capital markets in developed countries are analyzed. Changes of variance on stock markets in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary are identified. Differences among countries are analyzed. Capital markets of these countries are compared in terms of market efficiency. Moreover, co-movements of stock markets in Visegrad countries with capital markets in developed countries are studied. Different specifications of multivariate GARCH models are studied. Asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model and Asymmetric Generalized Dynamic Conditional Correlation model are considered.

Abstract Chapter 4 investigates the extent to which media personalization is conditional upon domestic political and institutional contexts. To do so, it analyses media personalization with respect to news coverage involving the European Commission and the Parliament in national newspapers from seven European countries between 1992 and 2019. Media personalization is operationalized as individualization, that is, an increasing focus on individual politicians at the expense of either institution, and presidentialization in terms of an increasing focus on the Commission President vis-à-vis the Commission. The chapter cannot confirm any universal trend towards greater media personalization in the news coverage of either institution. Domestic media systems—rather than electoral systems and politicization of EU affairs in domestic contexts—appear to be responsible for cross-country differences in personalization. The chapter concludes that these findings have consequences for the likelihood that European citizens become aware of individual politicians in EU politics.

Speaking the language of the host country eases migrants’ integration and tends to boost their economic success in the country of destination. However, the decision to acquire language skills may in itself be determined by the intention to migrate. In addition, conditional on being a migrant, the relation between language skills and migrants’ integration and economic success goes both ways. Using data on the study of foreign languages during compulsory education in European countries, we test whether and how much language proficiency determines migration flows across Europe. The European Union with basically unlimited labor mobility and pronounced differences in youth unemployment rates provides an ideal testing ground for our hypothesis. We find that speaking the language of a country increases the likelihood to migrate to that country almost fivefold.

The COVID - 19 pandemic that swept the world in 2020 and the reactions of state authorities to it are unparalleled events in modern history. In order to protect public health, states have limited a number of fundamental human rights that individuals have in accordance with national constitutions and international conventions. The focus of this paper is the right of access to abortion in the Member States of the European Union. In Europe, the situation with regard to the recognition of women's right to abortion is quite clear. All member states of the European Union, with the exception of Poland and Malta, recognize the rather liberal right of a woman to have an abortion in a certain period of time after conception. However, Malta and Poland, as members of the European Union, since abortion is seen as a service, must not hinder the travel of women abroad to have an abortion, nor restrict information on the provision of abortion services in other countries. In 2020, a pandemic highlighted all the weaknesses of this regime by preventing women from traveling to more liberal countries to perform abortions, thus calling into question their right to choose and protect their sexual and reproductive rights. This is not only the case in Poland and Malta, but also in countries that recognize the right to abortion but make it conditional on certain non-medical conditions, such as compulsory counselling; and the mandatory time period between applying for and performing an abortion; in situations present in certain countries where the problem of a woman exercising the right to abortion is a large number of doctors who do not provide this service based on their right to conscience. The paper is divided into three parts. The aim of the first part of the paper is to consider all the legal difficulties that women face in accessing abortion during the COVID -19 pandemic, restrictions that affect the protection of their dignity, right to life, privacy and right to equality. In the second part of the paper particular attention will be paid to the illiberal tendencies present in this period in some countries of Central and Eastern Europe, especially Poland. In the third part of the paper, emphasis will be put on the situation in Malta where there is a complete ban on abortion even in the case when the life of a pregnant woman is in danger.

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias