Bibliographies thématiques / Risk perception analysis

Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Risk perception analysis »

Auteur : Grafiati
Publié le 10 mars 2023

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Risk perception analysis"

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Newby, H. « Risk Analysis and Risk Perception ». Process Safety and Environmental Protection 75, no 3 (août 1997) : 133–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1205/095758297528959.

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Okrent, David, et Nick Pidgeon. « Editorial Risk perception versus risk analysis ». Reliability Engineering & ; System Safety 59, no 1 (janvier 1998) : 1–4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0951-8320(97)00345-1.

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Li, Jiajie, Nan Li, Lang Luo et Yanan Ren. « Segmentation of Chinese parents based on food risk perception dimensions for risk communication in rural area of Sichuan province ». British Food Journal 118, no 10 (3 octobre 2016) : 2444–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/bfj-01-2016-0039.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate risk dimensions affecting food risk perceptions and to develop effective risk communication strategies based on their risk perceptions dimensions. The reason for writing this paper is that applying single risk communication strategy for public often fails because food risks are systemic risks and public perceptions toward them consist of multiple dimensions. Launching an effective risk communication need to investigate the perception dimensions of the target audience. Design/methodology/approach A total of 2,673 parents of 3-14-year-old children from the rural area of Sichuan province in China were chosen as target audience. Based on the survey conducted about parents’ food risk perceptions, this study used factor-cluster analysis method to segment parents to sub-clusters with significantly different risk perception dimensions. Parents’ representative demographic characteristics within each cluster were further identified through cross-tabs analysis with χ2 tests. Findings All the parents could be segmented into four sub-clusters, namely, sensitive parents, dependent parents, familiarity-oriented parents and institutional distrust parents, according to their risk perception difference on five dimensions. A series of risk communication strategies were specifically designed for each cluster based on their risk perception features as well as demographic characteristics. Originality/value The insight derived from this study described a deeper image of public risk perceptions and provided suggestions for risk communication launchers to pinpoint the risk perception as well as perception dimensions of the target audience and accordingly develop effective risk communication strategies.
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Carballo, Rita R., Carmelo J. León et María M. Carballo. « The perception of risk by international travellers ». Worldwide Hospitality and Tourism Themes 9, no 5 (9 octobre 2017) : 534–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/whatt-07-2017-0032.

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Purpose This paper aims to investigate the perception of risk by international travellers. There are multiple risks facing tourism that contribute to the formation of perception of risk. It is necessary to identify the different types of risks that are perceived in tourist destinations. This paper suggests policies and techniques to mitigate the risk perceptions in tourism. Design/methodology/approach A preliminary questionnaire survey was conducted to test the types of risks that are perceived in international destinations. The data were further analysed with factor analysis to measure the dimension of risk perceptions. Findings The main results point to the existence of five types of risk affecting tourists during international travel: health risk, risk of suffering from crime and delinquency, accident risk, environmental risk and risk from disasters. Result shows that uncontrollable risks are perceived as more important than those which are more controllable. Originality/value As the existing literature on perception of risk in tourism does not contain a substantially detailed discussion relating to types of risk in international destinations and its contribution to the formation of risk perceptions, this paper may contribute to a better understanding of risk perception. The results could assist in decision-making and have implications for the management of risks.
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Wauters, E., F. van Winsen, Y. de Mey et L. Lauwers. « Risk perception, attitudes towards risk and risk management : evidence and implications ». Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 60, No. 9 (30 septembre 2014) : 389–405. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/176/2013-agricecon.

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The comprehensive risk analysis of a business such as farming entails questions on what is at stake, how important is the risk concern and how to deal with it. We performed a sequential mixed method, with the in-depth interviews in the first stage (n = 35), followed by a survey on the Flemish FADN (n = 614) in the second, to investigate the farmers’ risk perception, the attitudes towards risk and the perceived usefulness of the risk management strategies. We find that, rather than the short-term volatility in prices, the longer term co-evolution of expenses versus receipts is of a major concern to farmers, next to the land availability and the policy risks. Farmers are shown to be only slightly risk averse, rather risk neutral even. Further, our results suggest that farmers do not consider extensively studied risk management strategies such as contracts, futures and insurances, a valid option for their farm, and put more faith in internal strategies such as the debt management, the liquidity management and diversification. Last, risk management is to a substantial degree performed at the household level, rather than at the farm level, with strategies such as cutting the private expenses and the off-farm employment. These results hardly differ according to the farm and farmer characteristics.  
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Goerlandt, Floris, Jie Li et Genserik Reniers. « The Landscape of Risk Perception Research : A Scientometric Analysis ». Sustainability 13, no 23 (29 novembre 2021) : 13188. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132313188.

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Risk perception is important in organizational and societal governance contexts. This article presents a high-level analysis of risk perception research using Web of Science core collection databases, scientometrics methods and visualization tools. The focus is on trends in outputs, geographical and temporal trends, and patterns in the associated scientific categories. Thematic clusters and temporal dynamics of focus topics are identified using keyword analysis. A co-citation analysis is performed to identify the evolution of research fronts and key documents. The results indicate that research output is growing fast, with most contributions originating from western countries. The domain is highly interdisciplinary, rooted in psychology and social sciences, but branching into domains related to environmental sciences, medicine, and engineering. Significant research themes focus on perceptions related to health, with a focus on cancer, human immunodeficiency virus, and epidemiology, natural hazards and major disasters, traffic accidents, technological and industrial risks, and customer trust. Risk perception research originated from consumer choice decisions, with subsequent research fronts focusing on understanding the risk perception concept, and on developing taxonomies and measurement methods. Applied research fronts focus on environmental hazards, traffic accidents, breast cancer and, more recently, e-commerce transactions and flood risk. Based on the results, various avenues for future research are described.
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Hwang, Seong-Nam. « Analysis on Public Risk Perception and Environmental Risk ». Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 11, no 4 (31 août 2011) : 95–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.9798/kosham.2011.11.4.095.

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Wijaya, Ida bagus Surya, et Kastawan Mandala. « PENGARUH KUALITAS PELAYANAN TERHADAP PERSEPSI NILAI NASABAH YANG DIMEDIASI OLEH PERSEPSI RISIKO STUDI PADA NASABAH LPD PERERENAN KABUPATEN BADUNG ». E-Jurnal Manajemen Universitas Udayana 7, no 5 (8 mars 2018) : 2652. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/ejmunud.2018.v07.i05.p14.

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The risks faced by customers when using the services of LPD, with attention to and maintain the quality of the company provided to customers will be added value to the LPD. The purpose of this study to determine the effect of service quality on the perception of customer value mediated by risk perception. This research was conducted at LPD Pererenan Kabupaten Badung. The sample used is 100 customers. The technique of this research is purposive sampling and analysis technique used is path analysis technique. Quality of service has a positive and significant impact on the perception of value. Perceptions of risk have a negative and significant impact on the perception of value, which means that when perceived risk perceptions of customers when using LPD services are high, the perception of customer value on LPD is low. Service quality has a negative and significant impact on risk perception. Perceptions of risk mediate the effect of service quality on the perception of customer value positively and significantly, it proves when the quality of service and perception of customer value is high then customer risk perceptions aat using LPD services low. A good LPD business should be able to maintain the quality of service provided to its customers, in terms of service. LPDs should be able to prioritize the interests of LPD customers in financial services LPD, able to establish good service quality and perception of good customer value. Keywords: service quality, customer perception, risk perception
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Osiemo, Jamleck, Ruerd Ruben et Evan Girvetz. « Farmer Perceptions of Agricultural Risks ; Which Risk Attributes Matter Most for Men and Women ». Sustainability 13, no 23 (23 novembre 2021) : 12978. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132312978.

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Analysis of farmer risk perceptions is usually limited to production risks, with risk perception as a function of likelihood and severity. Such an approach is limited in the context of the many risks and other important risk attributes. Our analysis of the risk perceptions of farmers extends beyond production risks, severity of the risks, and their likelihoods. We first characterize agricultural risks and identify their main sources and consequences. We then analyze risk perceptions as a hierarchical construct using partial least squares path modelling. We determine the most important risks and risk attributes in the perceptions of farmers, and test for differences in the perceptions between men and women. Results show that severity and ability to prevent a risk are most important in forming risk perceptions. Second, probabilities (ability to prevent) tend to matter more to men (women) for some risks; lastly, low crop yields and fluctuating input prices have greater total effects on the overall risk perception. Our results provide an impetus for risk analysis in agriculture to consider risk attributes that cause affective reactions such as severity and perceived ability to prevent the risks, the need for input price stabilization, and redress of the rampart yield gaps in small-scale agriculture.
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Aksoy, Berna, et Eylem Pasli Gurdogan. « Occupational risk perception : A scale development study ». Journal of Nursing Education and Practice 9, no 4 (28 décembre 2018) : 98. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/jnep.v9n4p98.

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Background and objective: The determination of occupational risk perception is the basic tool for making attitude and behaviour changes, for improving health and safety sense. In the present paper, we aim to develop a reliable and valid occupational risk perception measurement.Methods: Cross-sectional survey design was used in the 2015-2016 academic year with a sample of involved students studying in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th grades (N = 439). 423 nursing students was recruited in the study. We evaluated the reliability and validity, consistency by using explanatory and confirmatory factor analysis, Cronbach’s alpha values and The Pearson correlation coefficients of the new scale.Results: After the explanatory factor analysis the scale was composed of 17 items and 3 subscales which named psychological and ergonomic risks subscale and person and institution-related risks subscale and the physical environment subscale. The Cronbach’s alpha of the scale was 0.826. The scale’s confirmatory factor analysis showed good conformance.Conclusions: The scale is a valid and reliable measurement tool for measuring occupational risk perceptions among nursing students. This scale is used to determine the occupational risk perceptions in the field of healthcare.
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Thèses sur le sujet "Risk perception analysis"

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Zhang, Minhao. « Managerial perception of supply chain quality risk : risk analysis and decision analysis ». Thesis, University of York, 2017. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/20715/.

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Due to increased supply chain complexity, ensuring the quality of supply materials or products from upstream suppliers has become a challenge for firms. A great deal has been written on possible solutions and strategies to deal with supply chain quality risk (SCQR) in recent years. However, the manager’s decision-making process in relation to SCQR has not been fully researched. To close this gap, the aims of this study were to scrutinise managers’ perceptions of SCQR, as well as the antecedents of and decision-making related to perceived SCQR. The relevant literature was comprehensively reviewed in order to build a foundation for the conceptualisation of perceived SCQR. This study proposed that the managerial perception of SCQR was a multi-dimensional concept with four representations. A rigorous scale development process was adopted to develop a set of reliable instruments to measure perceived SCQR. With a sample of 316 Chinese manufacturers, the validity and reliability of the measurement scales for the representations of SCQR perception were assessed. Based on the risky-decision making model, a theoretical framework of the managerial decision-making process in relation to perceived SCQR was proposed. Furthermore, the agency theory and resource dependence theory were drawn on to identify factors related to the supply chain relationship and supply chain quality barriers that might have effects on three of the representations of SCQR. Based on the resource dependence theory, it was found that buyer and supplier dependence affect the representations of SCQR differently. The empirical results indicate that the inability to test and inability to trace are significant drivers of the perception of SCQR. The representation of SCQR impact on the intention of adopting two oriented quality management practices was also examined. The result reveals that when managers face increasing SCQR, they tend to be conservative in applying the quality management practices.
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Stuessy, Tom. « Risk perception a quantitative analysis of skydiving participation / ». [Bloomington, Ind.] : Indiana University, 2007. http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:3290765.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Indiana University, School of Health, Physical Education and Recreation, 2007.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 68-11, Section: A, page: 4862. Adviser: Joel Meier. Title from dissertation home page (viewed May 22, 2008).
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Walpole, Hugh David. « Re-Perceiving Perceived Risk : Examining the Psychological Structure of Risk Perception ». The Ohio State University, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu157469610850242.

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Dieckmann, Nathan F. « Communicating risk in intelligence forecasts : the consumer's perspective / ». Thesis, Connect to title online (Scholars' Bank) Connect to title online (ProQuest), 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1794/6204.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2007.
Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 171-178). Also available online in Scholars' Bank; and in ProQuest, free to University of Oregon users.
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Chapado, Miguel Ângelo de Oliveira Pereira Nunes. « How does risk perception affects attitudes toward risk ? An empirical work in Mozambique context ». Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15127.

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Mestrado em Finanças
O objetivo principal deste trabalho é inferir uma relação entre as atitudes perante o risco e a percepção de risco. Os dados foram recolhidos através de um questionário de duas partes que foi aplicado a 164 estudantes universitários em Moçambique. Os principais dados utilizados derivaram de uma escala DOSPERT de 65 itens, especialmente construída para ser aplicada em Moçambique encurtada através de uma análise factorial confirmatória. A escala final utilizada foi uma escala de 30 itens dividida por 6 subdomínios de risco. Essa escala apresentou resultados interessantes nas métricas escolhidas de três domínios avaliados: Unidimensionalidade; Confiabilidade e Validade. Adicionamente, foi aplicado a teoria da utilidade a uma amostra de 72 indivíduos. O questionário permite uma comparação entre duas técnicas de atitudes perante o risco: (1) Escala DOSPERT; (2) Teoria esperada da utilidade. Usando as métricas DOSPERT, foi possível realizar uma análise de regressão, regredindo benefícios esperados e percepção de risco como variáveis independentes e atitude perante o risco como variável dependente. Para a percepção de risco, os resultados mostraram uma relação negativa com as atitudes em relação ao risco para todos os subdomínios de risco, exceto Saúde / Segurança, sendo estaticamente significativo para os subdomínios de risco Financeiro /Aposta, Ético e Recreativo. Usando a teoria da utilidade, foi possível calcular a curvatura da função de utilidade (alpha). Além disso, e realizando a mesma regressão, mas usando alpha obteve-se para resultados fracos. Os resultados contribuem para a hipótese de que as métricas DOSPERT e as métricas da utilidade medem diferentes coisas.
The main purpose of this work it to infer a relationship between attitudes toward risk and risk perception. The data was collected via a two-part questionnaire and applied to 164 graduate students in Mozambique. The main data used derived from a 65-item DOSPERT scale, especially constructed to be applied in Mozambique, which was shortened via a Confirmatory Factor Analysis. The final scale was a 30-item scale divided by 6 sub-domains of risk. This scale presented interesting results in the chosen metrics of three domains evaluated: Unidimensionality; Reliability; Validity. The final scale should be fined tuned for future research purposes and was prepared to be applied to similar cultural contexts. Additionally, it was applied utility theory to 72 individuals. The questionnaire allows a comparison between two measures of attitudes toward risk (1) DOSPERT Scale; (2) Expected Utility Theory. Using the DOSPERT metrics, it was possible to perform a regression analysis, regressing expected benefits and risk perception as independent variables and attitudes toward risk as dependent variable. The results help to answer the proposed research question. For risk perception, results showed a negative relationship with attitudes toward risk for all sub-domains of risk except Health/Safety, being statically significant for the Financial/Gambling, Ethical and Recreational sub-domains of risk. Using utility theory, it was possible to the curvature of the utility function (alpha). Moreover, and performing the same regression but using alpha the lead to poor results. The results contribute to hypothesize that the DOSPERT metrics and the utility metrics measure different things.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Shetawy, Fatmaelzahraa Rady Mohamed Ahmed <1993&gt. « An analysis of Risk perception and attitudes towards climate change in Egypt ». Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/21551.

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Egypt is one of the world's most vulnerable countries to the potential effects of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel identified the Nile Delta on Climate Change (IPCC) as one of the most vulnerable deltas to sea-level rise. Despite these alarming predictions, there has been a deficiency of in-depth research on public risk perceptions of climate change in Egypt. Identifying the public's risk perception of climate change is critical for informing policy and developing effective risk communication strategies that improve public engagement with climate change and encourage actions to mitigate climate change impacts. This study is conducted in Egypt, focusing on three major cities. Egypt's major cities are Cairo (including the governorates of Cairo and Giza) and Alexandria, Al-Sharqiyyah. Data was collected through an online survey shared on different social media platforms. This study contributes to the academic literature by looking deeper into public risk perceptions of climate change and current behaviour responses to climate change in Egypt. We introduce encompassing exploratory model inspired by the CCRPM conceptual framework that could explain variation in climate risk perception of climate change in Egypt. the model includes knowledge about climate change, affect (feelings), psychological distance (closeness) of climate change, the experience of extreme weather events, and demographic variables. Each determinant was chosen based on its relevance to the Egyptian context. This will lead to a better understanding of the main drivers of climate change risk perception, with a particular focus on Egypt, where no comprehensive climate change risk perception studies have been presented in the previous literature. The following research questions will define the study's main objectives: • How do Egyptians perceive climate change? • What do Egyptians believe about the reality and causes of climate change? • To what extent are Egyptians concerned with climate change? • Are there demographic differences in perceptions of climate change in Egypt? • What are the predictors of climate change risk perception in Egypt? • What are the current environmental behaviours of Egyptians to cope with climate change?
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Filipsson, Monika. « Uncertainty, variability and environmental risk analysis ». Doctoral thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för naturvetenskap, NV, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-11193.

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The negative effects of hazardous substances and possible measures that can be taken are evaluated in the environmental risk analysis process, consisting of risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and natural variability are always present in this process. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate some tools as well as discuss the management of uncertainty and variability, as it is necessary to treat them both in a reliable and transparent way to gain regulatory acceptance in decision making. The catalytic effects of various metals on the formation of chlorinated aromatic compounds during the heating of fly ash were investigated (paper I). Copper showed a positive catalytic effect, while cobalt, chromium and vanadium showed a catalytic effect for degradation. Knowledge of the catalytic effects may facilitate the choice and design of combustion processes to decrease emissions, but it also provides valuable information to identify and characterize the hazard. Exposure factors of importance in risk assessment (physiological parameters, time use factors and food consumption) were collected and evaluated (paper II). Interindividual variability was characterized by mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis and multiple percentiles, while uncertainty in these parameters was estimated with confidence intervals. How these statistical parameters can be applied was shown in two exposure assessments (papers III and IV). Probability bounds analysis was used as a probabilistic approach, which enables separate propagation of uncertainty and variability even in cases where the availability of data is limited. In paper III it was determined that the exposure cannot be expected to cause any negative health effects for recreational users of a public bathing place. Paper IV concluded that the uncertainty interval in the estimated exposure increased when accounting for possible changes in climate-sensitive model variables. Risk managers often need to rely on precaution and an increased uncertainty may therefore have implications for risk management decisions. Paper V focuses on risk management and a questionnaire was sent to employees at all Swedish County Administrative Boards working with contaminated land. It was concluded that the gender, age and work experience of the employees, as well as the funding source of the risk assessment, all have an impact on the reviewing of risk assessments. Gender was the most significant factor, and it also affected the perception of knowledge.
Negativa effekter orsakade av skadliga ämnen och möjliga åtgärder bedöms och utvärderas i en miljöriskanalys, som kan delas i riskbedömning, riskkommunikation och riskhantering. Osäkerhet som beror på kunskapsbrist samt naturlig variabilitet finns alltid närvarande i denna process. Syftet med avhandlingen är att utvärdera några tillvägagångssätt samt diskutera hur osäkerhet och variabilitet hanteras då det är nödvändigt att båda hanteras trovärdigt och transparent för att riskbedömningen ska vara användbar för beslutsfattande. Metallers katalytiska effekt på bildning av klorerade aromatiska ämnen under upphettning av flygaska undersöktes (artikel I). Koppar visade en positiv katalytisk effekt medan kobolt, krom och vanadin istället katalyserade nedbrytningen. Kunskap om katalytisk potential för bildning av skadliga ämnen är viktigt vid val och design av förbränningsprocesser för att minska utsläppen, men det är också ett exempel på hur en fara kan identifieras och karaktäriseras. Information om exponeringsfaktorer som är viktiga i riskbedömning (fysiologiska parametrar, tidsanvändning och livsmedelskonsumtion) samlades in och analyserades (artikel II). Interindividuell variabilitet karaktäriserades av medel, standardavvikelse, skevhet, kurtosis (toppighet) och multipla percentiler medan osäkerhet i dessa parametrar skattades med konfidensintervall. Hur dessa statistiska parametrar kan tillämpas i exponeringsbedömningar visas i artikel III och IV. Probability bounds analysis användes som probabilistisk metod, vilket gör det möjligt att separera osäkerhet och variabilitet i bedömningen även när tillgången på data är begränsad. Exponeringsbedömningen i artikel III visade att vid nu rådande föroreningshalter i sediment i en badsjö så medför inte bad någon hälsofara. I artikel IV visades att osäkerhetsintervallet i den skattade exponeringen ökar när hänsyn tas till förändringar i klimatkänsliga modellvariabler. Riskhanterare måste ta hänsyn till försiktighetsprincipen och en ökad osäkerhet kan därmed få konsekvenser för riskhanteringsbesluten. Artikel V fokuserar på riskhantering och en enkät skickades till alla anställda som arbetar med förorenad mark på länsstyrelserna i Sverige. Det konstaterades att anställdas kön, ålder och erfarenhet har en inverkan på granskningsprocessen av riskbedömningar. Kön var den mest signifikanta variabeln, vilken också påverkade perceptionen av kunskap. Skillnader i de anställdas svar kunde också ses beroende på om riskbedömningen finansierades av statliga bidrag eller av en ansvarig verksamhetsutövare.
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Keaveney, Alexis A. « Acetaminophen, Affect, and Risk : An Analysis of Psychological and Neurochemical Mechanisms ». The Ohio State University, 2016. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1477054183340724.

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McCormac, Daniel. « What changes in media risk frames reveal about changing attitudes toward modern life the case of the Greek Press, 1977-2004 / ». Diss., Columbia, Mo. : University of Missouri-Columbia, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10355/4505.

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Thesis (M.A.) University of Missouri-Columbia, 2006.
The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file (viewed on August 24, 2007) Includes bibliographical references.
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Leburu, Botho Felicia. « An analysis of cognitive biases and risk perceptions on female entrepreneurship success ». Diss., University of Pretoria, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/81319.

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The proliferation of female entrepreneurs, especially in developing countries, instigated this study, to understand their judgement and decision-making processes in the highly complex and uncertain entrepreneurial landscape within which they need to thrive. The study focused on cognitive bias and its effects on risk perception and firm performance, particularly in female entrepreneurs. This study took a quantitative approach to analyse the effects of cognitive bias. A cross sectional explanatory research design, using a combination of purposive and snowballing non-probability sampling strategies, yielded a sample of 75 female entrepreneurs. The data collected on their risk perception, which is believed to be a determinant of success, was analysed using Pearson’s correlations, paired t-tests and multivariate regression statistical techniques. The key findings of this study are based on the evaluation of four research hypotheses were; a weak negative relationship exists between overconfidence and risk perception; a positive relationship exists between overoptimism and risk perception; and no relationship exists between self-efficacy and risk perception. With regard to firm performance, none of the cognitive biases or risk perceptions were found to have any statistically significant relationship. This study brought a different dimension to the effects of cognitive bias, as its findings mostly contradicted existing literature.
Mini Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2021.
Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)
MBA
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Livres sur le sujet "Risk perception analysis"

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Britain), Royal Society (Great, dir. Risk : analysis, perception and management. London : Royal Society, 1992.

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Jake, Ansell, et Wharton Frank, dir. Risk : Analysis, assessment, management. Chichester : Wiley, 1992.

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Garrick, B. John, et Willard C. Gekler, dir. The Analysis, Communication, and Perception of Risk. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-2370-7.

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Society for Risk Analysis. Meeting. The analysis, communication, and perception of risk. Sous la direction de Garrick B. John et Gekler Willard C. New York : Plenum Press, 1991.

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1948-, Brown Jennifer, Great Britain. Dept. of the Environment. et Economic and Social Research Council (Great Britain), dir. Environmental threats : Perception, analysis, and management. London : Belhaven Press, 1989.

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Risk analysis and human behaviour. New York : Earthscan, 2012.

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Cottle, Charles M. Options, perception and deception : Position dissection, risk analysis, and defensive trading strategies. Chicago, IL : Irwin Professional Publishing, 1996.

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B, Johnson Branden, et Covello Vincent T, dir. The Social and cultural construction of risk : Essays on risk selection and perception. Dordrecht : D. Reidel Pub. Co., 1987.

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Fornari, Fabio. Recovering the probability density function of asset prices using GARCH as diffusion approximations. [Roma] : Banca d'Italia, 2001.

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Urena, Anthony. The Risk Ecology Framework : A Socioecological Analysis of HIV Risk Perception among Black and Latino Men who have Sex with Men. [New York, N.Y.?] : [publisher not identified], 2020.

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Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Risk perception analysis"

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Horisberger, Bruno, et Rolf Dinkel. « Risk Perception Analysis ». Dans Health Systems Research, 172–73. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-74272-9_24.

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Hoefer, M. Peter, Elayn Bernay et S. Basheer Ahmed. « Risk Perception of Technologies : Observations from Mainland China ». Dans Risk Analysis, 271–74. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-0730-1_27.

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Schierow, Linda-Jo. « The Role of Salient Fates and Anxiety in Hazard Perception ». Dans Risk Analysis, 425–31. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-0730-1_42.

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Pages, J. P., J. Brenot et M. H. Barny. « Factor Analysis and Risk Perception ». Dans Eurocourses : Chemical and Environmental Science, 207–45. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-3198-8_7.

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Morison, Rufus, David Mauriello et Richard A. Park. « Ecological Models for Risk Assessment/Risk Management ». Dans The Analysis, Communication, and Perception of Risk, 635–42. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-2370-7_62.

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Gifford, Diane M. « Reducing the Risk in Buying Risk Analysis Software ». Dans The Analysis, Communication, and Perception of Risk, 295–304. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-2370-7_29.

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Dake, Karl, et Aaron Wildavsky. « Individual Differences in Risk Perception and Risk-Taking Preferences ». Dans The Analysis, Communication, and Perception of Risk, 15–24. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-2370-7_2.

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Morison, Rufus, et James J. Anderson. « Risk Assessment-Risk Management : The Need for a Synthesis ». Dans The Analysis, Communication, and Perception of Risk, 651–60. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-2370-7_64.

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Gordon, Edward. « A Comprehensive Risk Analysis Example ». Dans The Analysis, Communication, and Perception of Risk, 315–20. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-2370-7_31.

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Visschers, Vivianne H. M., et Michael Siegrist. « Differences in Risk Perception Between Hazards and Between Individuals ». Dans Psychological Perspectives on Risk and Risk Analysis, 63–80. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92478-6_3.

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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Risk perception analysis"

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Kampová, K. « The concept of social risks perception ». Dans RISK ANALYSIS 2010. Southampton, UK : WIT Press, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/risk100121.

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Aksu, Muharrem, Ali Rıza Aktaş, Onur Oku et Faruk Kerem Şentürk. « Analysis of Security Perceptions of Foreign Tourists : The Case of Alanya ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c04.00759.

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High risk perception of the tourists affects tourism demand and causes serious declines in the number of tourists to destinations. With this respect, data collected from 500 randomly chosen foreign tourists were analyzed in order to identify their safety perception levels of Alanya town center and in which circumstances and places they have risk perceptions. Factors such as country of origin (nationality), gender, age, travel companion, education level, and duration of stay were tested in order to find out if they have an effect on safety/risk perceptions. Analysis included frequency tables and chi-squared tests. According to the main findings, majority of foreign tourists visiting Alanya find the destination safe (90,6%). There were significant differences in tourists’ perception of risk and safety among issues like traffic and criminal cases such as theft, purse-snatching, sexual harassment, crimes. Additionally, correlation was detected between one of the factors affecting risk perception, -gender and risk types such as -going out at nights, theft and sexual harassment; and foreign tourists’ showed different risk perceptions according to their gender.
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Yang, Jianchun, et Jialian Wang. « The Tourism Destination Image Perception of Guizhou Ethnic Village Based on Online Reviews ». Dans Proceedings of the Sixth Symposium of Risk Analysis and Risk Management in Western China (WRARM 2019). Paris, France : Atlantis Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/wrarm-19.2019.25.

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Koç, Murat, et Hakkı Çiftçi. « World Investments, Global Terrorism and the New Perception of Politic Risk ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.01108.

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Based on economic power struggle, the economic strength began to take the place of military power and economic security has been considered as important as military security in this new world order. Multinational companies and their feasibility studies constitute the agenda of politic risks before entering these markets. Political risk faced by firms can be defined as “the risk of a strategic, financial, or personnel loss for a firm because of such nonmarket factors as macroeconomic and social policies, or events related to political instability”. However, terrorism should be considered as a multiplier effect on some of the components mentioned above. Terrorism itself and these strict measures directly affect investments. In 2012, FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) flows into the Middle East and North Africa have been adversely affected by political risk over the past couple of years. Investor perceptions of political risks in the region remain elevated across a range of risks. The Arab Spring countries have fared worse than other developing countries in the region. The risk perception of civil disturbance and political violence, but also breach of contract, is especially prominent in Arab Spring countries. In other words, global terrorism has created a negative multiplier effect in the region. In this context, Multiplier effect can be summarized as an effect on a target, situation or event which exceed its creating strength than expected. Considering this impact, MNC’s SWOT analysis and investment analysis must signify a redefinition in a wide range by the means of political risk perceptions.
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GARZIA, FABIO, FRANCESCO BORGHINI, JESSICA BOVE, MARA LOMBARDI et SOODAMANI RAMALINGAM. « EMOTIONAL ANALYSIS OF SAFENESS AND RISK PERCEPTION OF DIFFERENT PAYMENT SYSTEMS IN ITALY AND THE UK DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ». Dans RISK/SAFE 2022. Southampton UK : WIT Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/ssr220111.

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Xie, Kefan, Gang Chen, Qian Wu et Wei Guo. « System Dynamic Analysis of Relationship between Individuals' Opportunity Perception Bias and Risk Perception Bias in Entrepreneurial Team ». Dans 2009 International Conference on Management and Service Science (MASS). IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icmss.2009.5302057.

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Xu, Xuanhua, Zhipeng Ma, Yanfen Yu, Yanxia Huang et Zhao Yang. « Study on the Improvement of LGDM Based on the Conflict and Risk Perception ». Dans 8th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC 2018). Paris, France : Atlantis Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/rac-18.2018.45.

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Ibn Awal, Zobair, et Kazuhiko Hasegawa. « A New Approach to Accident Analysis : Multiple Agent Perception-Action ». Dans SNAME 5th World Maritime Technology Conference. SNAME, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.5957/wmtc-2015-131.

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The economic and social impact of maritime accidents are enormous and devastating. In recent times the world experienced some grievous accidents which put serious challenges to the existing methods of safety evaluation. Over the years many research has been conducted on risk analysis and improvement of safety standards. Yet accidents are taking place and human elements are the major contributing factors. This paper proposes a new technique based on logic programming (e.g. Prolog) method. It is considered that an accident is an unwanted event which initiates from hidden causes (e.g. various action(s)/perception(s) of ship crew). It is, therefore, discussed that using intelligent agents for evaluation of the actions/perceptions of ship crew may result in uncovering of the hidden root causes behind an accident. Intelligent agents are essentially computer programs which acts or behaves rationally according their percepts. The perception and action sequence of an intelligent agent depends on the given environment and knowledge base. Study reveals that such a technique may assist ship crew in evaluating their decisions for making a safe voyage. The merits and demerits of the method are discussed briefly and future recommendations are made.
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Damayanti, Annisa, Djuara Lubis et Irman Hermadi. « Indonesian’s Risk Perception of COVID-19 Pandemic : A Netnography Analysis of Kawalcovid19.id Instagram ». Dans Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Rural Socio-Economic Transformation : Agrarian, Ecology, Communication and Community Development Perspectives, RUSET 2021, 14-15 September 2021, Bogor, West Java, Indonesia. EAI, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4108/eai.14-9-2021.2317188.

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Dramićanin, Sandra, et Goran Perić. « DETERMINING THE DIFFERENCES IN TOURIST’S RISK PERCEPTION AND TRAVEL INTENTION DURING COVID-19 HEALTH CRISIS : CASE STUDY OF SERBIA ». Dans The Sixth International Scientific Conference - TOURISM CHALLENGES AMID COVID-19, Thematic Proceedings. FACULTY OF HOTEL MANAGEMENT AND TOURISM IN VRNJAČKA BANJA UNIVERSITY OF KRAGUJEVAC, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.52370/tisc21466sd.

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The research purpose is determination of the differences in Serbian tourist’s perceived risk, during the COVID-19 health crisis, according to travel intention and destination of travel. In order to accomplish an analysis of differences between risks (travel risk, destination risk, health risk, financial risk), risk scores were calculated using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Testing the differences in relation to the travel intention and destination of travel during the COVID-19 pandemic according to risk perception was conducted through one-way MANOVA, where two models were applied. The outcome of the first model shows: significant impact of travel intention on a linear combination of risk factors. Also, taking into account all four risk factors, there are significant differences between those who intend to travel during a pandemic and those without that intention. In the second model, the findings indicate significant impact of the travel destination on a linear combination of risk factors, and significant differences between those respondents who intend to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic in the country and those respondents who intend to travel abroad according towards the perception of health risk, destination risk, and travel risk.
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Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Risk perception analysis"

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Martin, Ingrid M., Wade E. Martin et Carol B. Raish. A qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk perception and treatment options as related to wildfires in the USDA FS Region 3 National Forests. Ft. Collins, CO : U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.2737/rmrs-gtr-260.

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Adegoke, Damilola, Natasha Chilambo, Adeoti Dipeolu, Ibrahim Machina, Ade Obafemi-Olopade et Dolapo Yusuf. Public discourses and Engagement on Governance of Covid-19 in Ekiti State, Nigeria. African Leadership Center, King's College London, décembre 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.47697/lab.202101.

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Numerous studies have emerged so far on Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) across different disciplines. There is virtually no facet of human experience and relationships that have not been studied. In Nigeria, these studies include knowledge and attitude, risk perception, public perception of Covid-19 management, e-learning, palliatives, precautionary behaviours etc.,, Studies have also been carried out on public framing of Covid-19 discourses in Nigeria; these have explored both offline and online messaging and issues from the perspectives of citizens towards government’s policy responses such as palliative distributions, social distancing and lockdown. The investigators of these thematic concerns deployed different methodological tools in their studies. These tools include policy evaluations, content analysis, sentiment analysis, discourse analysis, survey questionnaires, focus group discussions, in depth-interviews as well as machine learning., These studies nearly always focus on the national government policy response, with little or no focus on the constituent states. In many of the studies, the researchers work with newspaper articles for analysis of public opinions while others use social media generated contents such as tweets) as sources for analysis of sentiments and opinions. Although there are others who rely on the use of survey questionnaires and other tools outlined above; the limitations of these approaches necessitated the research plan adopted by this study. Most of the social media users in Nigeria are domiciled in cities and their demography comprises the middle class (socio-economic) who are more likely to be literate with access to internet technologies. Hence, the opinions of a majority of the population who are most likely rural dwellers with limited access to internet technologies are very often excluded. This is not in any way to disparage social media content analysis findings; because the opinions expressed by opinion leaders usually represent the larger subset of opinions prevalent in the society. Analysing public perception using questionnaires is also fraught with its challenges, as well as reliance on newspaper articles. A lot of the newspapers and news media organisations in Nigeria are politically hinged; some of them have active politicians and their associates as their proprietors. Getting unbiased opinions from these sources might be difficult. The news articles are also most likely to reflect and amplify official positions through press releases and interviews which usually privilege elite actors. These gaps motivated this collaboration between Ekiti State Government and the African Leadership Centre at King’s College London to embark on research that will primarily assess public perceptions of government leadership response to Covid-19 in Ekiti State. The timeframe of the study covers the first phase of the pandemic in Ekiti State (March/April to August 2020).
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Allison, T., S. Hunter et F. J. Calzonetti. Analysis of the formation, expression, and economic impacts of risk perceptions associated with nuclear facilities. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), octobre 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/10139200.

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Hassan, Tarek A., Jesse Schreger, Markus Schwedeler et Ahmed Tahoun. Country Risk. Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series, mars 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.36687/inetwp157.

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We construct new measures of country risk and sentiment as perceived by global investors and executives using textual analysis of the quarterly earnings calls of publicly listed firms around the world. Our quarterly measures cover 45 countries from 2002-2020. We use our measures to provide a novel characterization of country risk and to provide a harmonized definition of crises. We demonstrate that elevated perceptions of a country's riskiness are associated with significant falls in local asset prices and capital outflows, even after global financial conditions are controlled for. Increases in country risk are associated with reductions in firm-level investment and employment. We also show direct evidence of a novel type of contagion, where foreign risk is transmitted across borders through firm-level exposures. Exposed firms suffer falling market valuations and significantly retrench their hiring and investment in response to crises abroad. Finally, we provide direct evidence that heterogeneous currency loadings on global risk help explain the cross-country pattern of interest rates and currency risk premia.
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Jung, Paul H., Jean-Claude Thill et Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte. State Failure, Violence, and Trade : Dangerous Trade Routes in Colombia. Banco de la República, décembre 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/dtseru.303.

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We investigate the effect of domestic armed violence brought about by political instability on the geography of distance frictions in freight mobility and the resulting differential access of regions to global markets. The Colombian transportation system has been found to be impeded by deficiencies in landside transport infrastructure and institutions, and by fragmented political environments. The micro-level analysis of U.S.-bounded export shipping records corroborates that export freight shipping from inland regions is re-routed to avoid exposures to domestic armed violence despite greatly extended landside and maritime shipping distances. We exploit the trajectories of freight shipping from Colombian regions and spatial patterns of violent armed conflicts to see how unstable geopolitical environments are detrimental to freight shipping mobility and market openness. The discrete choice model shows that the shipping flow is greatly curbed by the extended re-routing due to domestic armed violence and that inland regions have restricted access to the global market. The perception of risk and re-routing behavior is found heterogeneous across shipments and conditional to shipment characteristics, such as commodity type, freight value and shipper sizes. The results highlight that political stability must be accommodated for improved freight mobility and export-oriented economic development in the global South.
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Sabogal-Cardona, Orlando, Lynn Scholl, Daniel Oviedo, Amado Crotte et Felipe Bedoya. Not My Usual Trip : Ride-hailing Characterization in Mexico City. Inter-American Development Bank, août 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003516.

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With a few exceptions, research on ride-hailing has focused on North American cities. Previous studies have identified the characteristics and preferences of ride-hailing adopters in a handful of cities. However, given their marked geographical focus, the relevance and applicability of such work to the practice of transport planning and regulation in cities in the Global South is minimal. In developing cities, the entrance of new transport services follows very different trajectories to those in North America and Europe, facing additional social, economic, and cultural challenges, and involving different strategies. Moreover, the determinants of mode choice might be mediated by social issues such as the perception of crime and the risk of sexual harassment in public transportation, which is often experienced by women in large cities such as Mexico. This paper examines ride-hailing in the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City, unpacking the characteristics of its users, the ways they differ from users of other transport modes, and the implications for urban mobility. Building on the household travel survey from 2017, our analytical approach is based on a set of categorical models. Findings suggest that gender, age, education, and being more mobile are determinants of ride-hailing adoption. The analysis shows that ride-hailing is used for occasional trips, and it is usually done for leisure and health trips as well as for night trips. The study also reflects on ride-hailings implications for the way women access the city.
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Harris, Gregory, Brooke Hatchell, Davelin Woodard et Dwayne Accardo. Intraoperative Dexmedetomidine for Reduction of Postoperative Delirium in the Elderly : A Scoping Review. University of Tennessee Health Science Center, juillet 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21007/con.dnp.2021.0010.

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Background/Purpose: Post-operative delirium leads to significant morbidity in elderly patients, yet there is no regimen to prevent POD. Opioid use in the elderly surgical population is of the most significant risk factors for developing POD. The purpose of this scoping review is to recognize that Dexmedetomidine mitigates cognitive dysfunction secondary to acute pain and the use of narcotic analgesia by decreasing the amount of norepinephrine (an excitatory neurotransmitter) released during times of stress. This mechanism of action also provides analgesia through decreased perception and modulation of pain. Methods: The authors developed eligibility criteria for inclusion of articles and performed a systematic search of several databases. Each of the authors initially selected five articles for inclusion in the scoping review. We created annotated literature tables for easy screening by co-authors. After reviewing the annotated literature table four articles were excluded, leaving 11 articles for inclusion in the scoping review. There were six level I meta-analysis/systematic reviews, four level II randomized clinical trials, and one level IV qualitative research article. Next, we created a data-charting form on Microsoft Word for extraction of data items and synthesis of results. Results: Two of the studies found no significant difference in POD between dexmedetomidine groups and control groups. The nine remaining studies noted decreases in the rate, duration, and risk of POD in the groups receiving dexmedetomidine either intraoperatively or postoperatively. Multiple studies found secondary benefits in addition to decreased POD, such as a reduction of tachycardia, hypertension, stroke, hypoxemia, and narcotic use. One study, however, found that the incidence of hypotension and bradycardia were increased among the elderly population. Implications for Nursing Practice: Surgery is a tremendous stressor in any age group, but especially the elderly population. It has been shown postoperative delirium occurs in 17-61% of major surgery procedures with 30-40% of the cases assumed to be preventable. Opioid administration in the elderly surgical population is one of the most significant risk factors for developing POD. With anesthesia practice already leaning towards opioid-free and opioid-limited anesthetic, the incorporation of dexmedetomidine could prove to be a valuable resource in both reducing opioid use and POD in the elderly surgical population. Although more research is needed, the current evidence is promising.
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Lillian Rutandaro, Sherrie, Christine Lundambuyu Munalula, Rogers Otuta et Manenji Mangundu. Lives at Risk : A study of girls dropping out of school in Juba, Rumbek and Pibor Counties, South Sudan. Oxfam, novembre 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21201/2022.9349.

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This study was undertaken by Oxfam in three South Sudanse counties as part of the SIDA-funded project 'Building Resilience through Gender and Conflict-Sensitive Approaches to Education, Skills Development, and Sustainable Livelihoods'. Its purpose was to shed light on why so many girls drop out of school. The research revealed that women and girls often lack decision-making power over their lives. Early or forced marriage, the abduction of girls, perceptions that education delays marriage – and that educated girls risk not finding husbands – all contribute to dropout rates. Additional challenges include a lack of adequate hygiene and sanitation facilities in schools, the distances learners need to travel, insecurity caused by communal violence, floods, food insecurity, and a heavy household work burden. The Government of South Sudan has in place laws and policies to address these issues, but they remain largely on paper and enforcement mechanisms are weak. The report analyses each of these factors in turn and presents recommendations for how the SIDA project can begin to address them in its future programming.
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Lu, Tianjun, Jian-yu Ke, Fynnwin Prager et Jose N. Martinez. “TELE-commuting” During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond : Unveiling State-wide Patterns and Trends of Telecommuting in Relation to Transportation, Employment, Land Use, and Emissions in Calif. Mineta Transportation Institute, août 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.31979/mti.2022.2147.

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Telecommuting, the practice of working remotely at home, increased significantly (25% to 35%) early in the COVID-19 pandemic. This shift represented a major societal change that reshaped the family, work, and social lives of many Californians. These changes also raise important questions about what factors influenced telecommuting before, during, and after COVID-19, and to what extent changes in telecommuting have influenced transportation patterns across commute modes, employment, land use, and environment. The research team conducted state-level telecommuting surveys using a crowd-sourced platform (i.e., Amazon Mechanical Turk) to obtain valid samples across California (n=1,985) and conducted state-level interviews among stakeholders (n=28) across ten major industries in California. The study leveraged secondary datasets and developed regression and time-series models. Our surveys found that, compared to pre-pandemic levels, more people had a dedicated workspace at home and had received adequate training and support for telecommuting, became more flexible to choose their own schedules, and had improved their working performance—but felt isolated and found it difficult to separate home and work life. Our interviews suggested that telecommuting policies were not commonly designed and implemented until COVID-19. Additionally, regression analyses showed that telecommuting practices have been influenced by COVID-19 related policies, public risk perception, home prices, broadband rates, and government employment. This study reveals advantages and disadvantages of telecommuting and unveils the complex relationships among the COVID-19 outbreak, transportation systems, employment, land use, and emissions as well as public risk perception and economic factors. The study informs statewide and regional policies to adapt to the new patterns of telecommuting.
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Drury, J., S. Arias, T. Au-Yeung, D. Barr, L. Bell, T. Butler, H. Carter et al. Public behaviour in response to perceived hostile threats : an evidence base and guide for practitioners and policymakers. University of Sussex, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.20919/vjvt7448.

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Background: Public behaviour and the new hostile threats • Civil contingencies planning and preparedness for hostile threats requires accurate and up to date knowledge about how the public might behave in relation to such incidents. Inaccurate understandings of public behaviour can lead to dangerous and counterproductive practices and policies. • There is consistent evidence across both hostile threats and other kinds of emergencies and disasters that significant numbers of those affected give each other support, cooperate, and otherwise interact socially within the incident itself. • In emergency incidents, competition among those affected occurs in only limited situations, and loss of behavioural control is rare. • Spontaneous cooperation among the public in emergency incidents, based on either social capital or emergent social identity, is a crucial part of civil contingencies planning. • There has been relatively little research on public behaviour in response to the new hostile threats of the past ten years, however. • The programme of work summarized in this briefing document came about in response to a wave of false alarm flight incidents in the 2010s, linked to the new hostile threats (i.e., marauding terrorist attacks). • By using a combination of archive data for incidents in Great Britain 2010-2019, interviews, video data analysis, and controlled experiments using virtual reality technology, we were able to examine experiences, measure behaviour, and test hypotheses about underlying psychological mechanisms in both false alarms and public interventions against a hostile threat. Re-visiting the relationship between false alarms and crowd disasters • The Bethnal Green tube disaster of 1943, in which 173 people died, has historically been used to suggest that (mis)perceived hostile threats can lead to uncontrolled ‘stampedes’. • Re-analysis of witness statements suggests that public fears of Germany bombs were realistic rather than unreasonable, and that flight behaviour was socially structured rather than uncontrolled. • Evidence for a causal link between the flight of the crowd and the fatal crowd collapse is weak at best. • Altogether, the analysis suggests the importance of examining people’s beliefs about context to understand when they might interpret ambiguous signals as a hostile threat, and that. Tthe concepts of norms and relationships offer better ways to explain such incidents than ‘mass panic’. Why false alarms occur • The wider context of terrorist threat provides a framing for the public’s perception of signals as evidence of hostile threats. In particular, the magnitude of recent psychologically relevant terrorist attacks predicts likelihood of false alarm flight incidents. • False alarms in Great Britain are more likely to occur in those towns and cities that have seen genuine terrorist incidents. • False alarms in Great Britain are more likely to occur in the types of location where terrorist attacks happen, such as shopping areass, transport hubs, and other crowded places. • The urgent or flight behaviour of other people (including the emergency services) influences public perceptions that there is a hostile threat, particularly in situations of greater ambiguity, and particularly when these other people are ingroup. • High profile tweets suggesting a hostile threat, including from the police, have been associated with the size and scale of false alarm responses. • In most cases, it is a combination of factors – context, others’ behaviour, communications – that leads people to flee. A false alarm tends not to be sudden or impulsive, and often follows an initial phase of discounting threat – as with many genuine emergencies. 2.4 How the public behave in false alarm flight incidents • Even in those false alarm incidents where there is urgent flight, there are also other behaviours than running, including ignoring the ‘threat’, and walking away. • Injuries occur but recorded injuries are relatively uncommon. • Hiding is a common behaviour. In our evidence, this was facilitated by orders from police and offers from people staff in shops and other premises. • Supportive behaviours are common, including informational and emotional support. • Members of the public often cooperate with the emergency services and comply with their orders but also question instructions when the rationale is unclear. • Pushing, trampling and other competitive behaviour can occur,s but only in restricted situations and briefly. • At the Oxford Street Black Friday 2017 false alarm, rather than an overall sense of unity across the crowd, camaraderie existed only in pockets. This was likely due to the lack of a sense of common fate or reference point across the incident; the fragmented experience would have hindered the development of a shared social identity across the crowd. • Large and high profile false alarm incidents may be associated with significant levels of distress and even humiliation among those members of the public affected, both at the time and in the aftermath, as the rest of society reflects and comments on the incident. Public behaviour in response to visible marauding attackers • Spontaneous, coordinated public responses to marauding bladed attacks have been observed on a number of occasions. • Close examination of marauding bladed attacks suggests that members of the public engage in a wide variety of behaviours, not just flight. • Members of the public responding to marauding bladed attacks adopt a variety of complementary roles. These, that may include defending, communicating, first aid, recruiting others, marshalling, negotiating, risk assessment, and evidence gathering. Recommendations for practitioners and policymakers • Embed the psychology of public behaviour in emergencies in your training and guidance. • Continue to inform the public and promote public awareness where there is an increased threat. • Build long-term relations with the public to achieve trust and influence in emergency preparedness. • Use a unifying language and supportive forms of communication to enhance unity both within the crowd and between the crowd and the authorities. • Authorities and responders should take a reflexive approach to their responses to possible hostile threats, by reflecting upon how their actions might be perceived by the public and impact (positively and negatively) upon public behaviour. • To give emotional support, prioritize informative and actionable risk and crisis communication over emotional reassurances. • Provide first aid kits in transport infrastructures to enable some members of the public more effectively to act as zero responders.
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