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1
Seid Ahmed. « A Historiography of the Conquest of Kaffa in 1897 ». Ethiopian Journal of Business and Social Science 4, no 2 (1 décembre 2021) : 51–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.59122/13462gv.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract
Many of the study of history focus on the dynamics of the history. Historiography, the study of history, hardly attracts the view of the non-professional historians. It’s a key in the study of history to show the knowledge gap but also the various views of the writers on the event. Most of the Ethiopian history writers passively generalized the southward movement of Emperor Menilek in the last quarter of 19th century. Many writers expressed their view on their personal orientation rather than supporting on concrete evidence. Thus the objective of this paper is to analyze the imperial southward movement of Ethiopia under Menilek in general and the conquest of Kaffa in particular.
Key Words: Expansion, Southward Movement, Kaffa, Ethiopia
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Mardones, Piero, et René D. Garreaud. « Future Changes in the Free Tropospheric Freezing Level and Rain–Snow Limit : The Case of Central Chile ». Atmosphere 11, no 11 (23 novembre 2020) : 1259. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11111259.
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The freezing level in the free troposphere often intercepts the terrain of the world’s major mountain ranges, creating a rain–snow limit. In this work, we use the free tropospheric height of the 0 °C isotherm (H0) as a proxy of both levels and study its distribution along the western slope of the subtropical Andes (30°–38° S) in present climate and during the rest of the 21st century. This portion of the Andes corresponds to central Chile, a highly populated region where warm winter storms have produced devastating landslides and widespread flooding in the recent past. Our analysis is based on the frequency distribution of H0 derived from radiosonde and surface observations, atmospheric reanalysis and climate simulations. The future projections primarily employ a scenario of heavy greenhouse gasses emissions (RCP8.5), but we also examine the more benign RCP4.5 scenario. The current H0 distribution along the central Chile coast shows a gradual decrease southward, with mean heights close to 2600 m ASL (above sea level) at 30 °C S to 2000 m ASL at 38° S for days with precipitation, about 800 m lower than during dry days. The mean value under wet conditions toward the end of the century (under RCP8.5) is close to, or higher than, the upper quartile of the H0 distribution in the current climate. More worrisome, H0 values that currently occur only 5% of the time will be exceeded in about a quarter of the rainy days by the end of the century. Under RCP8.5, even moderate daily precipitation can increase river flow to levels that are considered hazardous for central Chile.
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Moretto, T., D. G. Sibeck, B. Lavraud, K. J. Trattner, H. Rème et A. Balogh. « Flux pile-up and plasma depletion at the high latitude dayside magnetopause during southward interplanetary magnetic field : a cluster event study ». Annales Geophysicae 23, no 6 (15 septembre 2005) : 2259–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-23-2259-2005.
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Abstract. An event of strong flux pile-up and plasma depletion at the high latitude magnetopause tailward of the cusp has been analyzed based on observations by the suite of Cluster spacecraft. The multi-satellite analysis facilitates the separation of temporal and spatial features and provides a direct estimate for the strength of the plasma depletion layer for this event. A doubling of the magnetic field strength and a forty percent reduction of the density are found. Our analysis shows that roughly half of the total magnetic field increase occurs within 0.6 RE of the magnetopause and another quarter within a distance of 1.2 RE. In addition, the plasma depletion signatures exhibit temporal variations which we relate to magnetopause dynamics. Keywords. Magnetospheric physics (Magnetopause, Cusp and boundary layers; Magnetosheath; Solar windmagnetosphere interactions)
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Raven, Peter H., Roy E. Gereau, Peter B. Phillipson, Cyrille Chatelain, Clinton N. Jenkins et Carmen Ulloa Ulloa. « The distribution of biodiversity richness in the tropics ». Science Advances 6, no 37 (septembre 2020) : eabc6228. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc6228.
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We compare the numbers of vascular plant species in the three major tropical areas. The Afrotropical Region (Africa south of the Sahara Desert plus Madagascar), roughly equal in size to the Latin American Region (Mexico southward), has only 56,451 recorded species (about 170 being added annually), as compared with 118,308 recorded species (about 750 being added annually) in Latin America. Southeast Asia, only a quarter the size of the other two tropical areas, has approximately 50,000 recorded species, with an average of 364 being added annually. Thus, Tropical Asia is likely to be proportionately richest in plant diversity, and for biodiversity in general, for its size. In the animal groups we reviewed, the patterns of species diversity were mostly similar except for mammals and butterflies. Judged from these relationships, Latin America may be home to at least a third of global biodiversity.
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Zhao, Haoxiang, Xiaoqing Xian, Zihua Zhao, Guifen Zhang, Wanxue Liu et Fanghao Wan. « Climate Change Increases the Expansion Risk of Helicoverpa zea in China According to Potential Geographical Distribution Estimation ». Insects 13, no 1 (11 janvier 2022) : 79. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/insects13010079.
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Helicoverpa zea, a well-documented and endemic pest throughout most of the Americas, affecting more than 100 species of host plants. It is a quarantine pest according to the Asia and Pacific Plant Protection Commission (APPPC) and the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People’s Republic of China. Based on 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea were predicted by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The contribution rate of bioclimatic variables and the jackknife method were integrated to assess the significant variables governing the PGDs. The response curves of bioclimatic variables were quantitatively determined to predict the PGDs of H. zea under climate change. The results showed that: (1) four out of the eight variables contributed the most to the model performance, namely, mean diurnal range (bio2), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) PGDs of H. zea under the current climate covered 418.15 × 104 km2, and were large in China; and (3) future climate change will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in both the 2030s and 2050s. The conversion of unsuitable to low suitability habitat and moderately to high suitability habitat increased by 8.43% and 2.35%, respectively. From the present day to the 2030s, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the centroid of the suitable habitats of H. zea showed a general tendency to move eastward; from 2030s to the 2050s, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, it moved southward, and it moved slightly northward under SSP2-4.5. According to bioclimatic conditions, H. zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to host plants and containers of H. zea and should exchange information to strengthen plant quarantine and pest monitoring, thus enhancing target management.
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Ye, Xingzhuang, Mingzhu Zhang, Qianyue Yang, Liqi Ye, Yipeng Liu, Guofang Zhang, Shipin Chen et al. « Prediction of Suitable Distribution of a Critically Endangered Plant Glyptostrobus pensilis ». Forests 13, no 2 (7 février 2022) : 257. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f13020257.
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Glyptostrobus pensilis is a critically endangered living fossil plant species of the Mesozoic era, with high scientific research and economic value. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of climate change on the potential habitat area of G. pensilis in East Asia. The MaxEnt (maximum entropy) model optimized by the ENMeval data package was used to simulate the potential distribution habitats of G. pensilis since the last interglacial period (LIG, 120–140 ka). The results showed that the optimized MaxEnt model has a high prediction accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.9843 ± 0.005. The Current highly suitable habitats were found in the Northeast Jiangxi, Eastern Fujian and Eastern Guangdong; the main climatic factors affecting the geographic distribution of G. pensilis are temperature and precipitation, with precipitation as the temperature factor. The minimum temperature of coldest month (Bio6) may be the key factor restricting the northward distribution of G. pensilis; during the LIG, it contracted greatly in the highly suitable habitat area. Mean Diurnal Range (Bio2), Minimum Temperature of Coldest Month (Bio6), Annual Precipitation (Bio12) and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) may be important climatic factors causing the changes in geographic distribution. In the next four periods, the suitable areas all migrated southward. Except for the RCP2.6-2070s, the highly suitable areas in the other three periods showed varying degrees of shrinkage. The results will provide a theoretical basis for the management and resource protection of G. pensilis.
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Zhao, Haoxiang, Xiaoqing Xian, Te Liang, Fanghao Wan, Juan Shi et Wanxue Liu. « Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change ». Insects 14, no 1 (13 janvier 2023) : 84. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/insects14010084.
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Phoracantha semipunctata is a destructive invasive alien forest pest worldwide. It primarily damages the eucalyptus via adults, affecting almost all parts of the eucalyptus. Its larvae develop in almost all major tissues of the plant. Phoracantha semipunctata spreads both via the migration of adults and global trade in intercontinental translocation. Currently, this pest has spread to six continents worldwide, except Antarctica, resulting in substantial economic losses. Based on global occurrence data and environmental variables, the potential global geographical distribution of P. semipunctata was predicted using an ensemble model. The centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion scheme were selected to assess niche dynamics during the global invasion process. Our results indicated that the AUC and TSS values of the ensemble model were 0.993 and 0.917, respectively, indicating the high prediction accuracy of the model. The distribution pattern of P. semipunctata is primarily attributed to the temperature seasonality (bio4), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), and human influence index variables. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata is primarily in western and southwestern Asia, western Europe, western and southern North America, southern South America, southern Africa, and eastern and southern Oceania. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata showed a downward trend in the 2030s and the 2050s. The distribution centroid showed a general tendency to shift southward from the near-current to future climate. Phoracantha semipunctata has largely conserved its niche during the global invasion process. More attention should be paid to the early warning, prevention, and control of P. semipunctata in the countries and regions where it has not yet become invasive.
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Van den Bergh, G. N. « ‘n Evolusie van die kern sakebuurt van Potchefstroom in 1880 ». New Contree 55 (30 mai 2008) : 22. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/nc.v55i0.407.
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Due to the British employing an extensive administrative policy concerning commerce and property tax, coupled with the attention focussed on Potchefstroom by the Transvaal War, a large and varied number of sources are available from which a detailed picture of the central commercial area of the town in 1880 can be reconstructed to indicate the evolution of this part of Potchefstroom. As no provision was made for a business area in the original planning of Potchefstroom one developed organically after the settlement of foreign traders after the Sand River Convention of 1852. From the original trading focal point around the Old Market it spread southwards towards the New Market Square when that was established in 1855. This resulted in a commercial quarter comprising the Old and New Market Squares and the stretch of Kerk Street connecting them. By 1880 the demand for stands for the building of shops and offices had resulted in the sub-division of the large original erven and the proliferation of purpose built structures. By then some 67 different commercial undertakings fronting on the indicated streets and squares can be identified. Their value varying between £250 and £5000. A detailed directory of the buildings comprising the central commercial area is given in this article as indicators of the evolution of the core commercial area of Potchefstroom in 1880 due to British activity
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Enkin, Randolph J., Judith Baker et Peter S. Mustard. « Paleomagnetism of the Upper Cretaceous Nanaimo Group, southwestern Canadian Cordillera ». Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences 38, no 10 (1 octobre 2001) : 1403–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/e01-031.
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The Baja B.C. model has the Insular Superterrane and related entities of the Canadian Cordillera subject to >3000 km of northward displacement with respect to cratonic North America from ~90 to ~50 Ma. The Upper Cretaceous Nanaimo Group (on and about Vancouver Island, British Columbia) is a prime target to test the model paleomagnetically because of its locality and age. We have widely sampled the basin (67 sites from seven islands spread over 150 km, Santonian to Maastrichtian age). Most samples have low unblocking temperatures (<450°C) and coercivities (~10 mT) and strong present-field contamination, forcing us to reject three quarters of the collection. Beds are insufficiently tilted to provide a conclusive fold test, and we see evidence of relative vertical axis rotations. However, inclination-only analysis indicates pretilting remanence is preserved for many samples. Both polarities are observed, and reversals correlate well to paleontological data, proving that primary remanence is observed. The mean inclination, 55 ± 3°, is 13 ± 4° steeper than previously published results. Our new paleolatitude, 35.7 ± 2.6° is identical to that determined from the slightly older Silverquick and Powell Creek formations at Mount Tatlow, yet the inferred displacement is smaller (2300 ± 400 km versus 3000 ± 500 km) because North America was drifting southward starting around 90 Ma. The interpreted paleolatitude conflicts with sedimentologic and paleontologic evidence that the Nanaimo Basin was deposited near its present northern position.
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Han, Chengcheng, Rui Yan, Dedalo Marchetti, Weixing Pu, Zeren Zhima, Dapeng Liu, Song Xu, Hengxin Lu et Na Zhou. « Study on Electron Density Anomalies Possibly Related to Earthquakes Based on CSES Observations ». Remote Sensing 15, no 13 (30 juin 2023) : 3354. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs15133354.
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This research examines the correlation between seismic activity and variations in ionospheric electron density (Ne) using the data from the Langmuir probe (LAP) onboard the China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES) during nighttime. Statistical analysis of Ms ≥ 6.8 earthquakes that occurred globally between August 2018 and March 2023 is conducted, as well as Ms ≥ 6.0 earthquakes in China during the same period, using the quartile analysis method for fixed revisiting orbits. The main conclusions are that: (1) the larger the magnitude of the earthquake, the more anomalous the phenomena that appear; (2) the anomalies on the east side of the epicenter are significantly higher than those on the west side, and the anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere are mostly distributed southward from the epicenter, while those in the Southern Hemisphere are mostly distributed northward from the epicenter; (3) anomalies appear with a higher frequency on several specific time intervals, including the day of the earthquake (likely co-seismic effect) and 2, 7, and 11 days before the earthquake (possible precursor candidates); and (4) for the 15 earthquakes of Ms ≥ 6.0 in China over the past five years, anomalous Ne mainly occurred southwest of the epicenter, with the highest frequency observed 5 days before the earthquake, and there were continuous anomalous phenomena between 9 days and 5 days before the earthquake. This study concludes that Ne, measured by CSES, can play a fundamental role in studying earthquake-related ionospheric disturbances.
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Viale, Maximiliano, et Mario N. Nuñez. « Climatology of Winter Orographic Precipitation over the Subtropical Central Andes and Associated Synoptic and Regional Characteristics ». Journal of Hydrometeorology 12, no 4 (1 août 2011) : 481–507. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jhm1284.1.
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Abstract Winter orographic precipitation over the Andes between 30° and 37°S is examined using precipitation gauges in the mountains and adjacent lowlands. Because of the limited number of precipitation gauges, this paper focuses on the large-scale variation in cross-barrier precipitation and does not take into account the fine ridge–valley scale. The maximum amount of precipitation was observed on the windward slope of the mountain range below the crest, which was twice that observed on the low-windward side between 32.5° and 34°S. Toward the east of the crest, precipitation amounts drop sharply, generating a strong cross-barrier gradient. The rain shadow effect is greater in the north (32°–34.5°S) than in the south (35°–36.5°S) of the low-lee side, which is probably due to more baroclinic activity in southernmost latitudes and a southward decrease in the height of the Andes enabling more spillover precipitation. The effect of the Andes on winter precipitation is so marked that it modifies the precipitation regimes in the adjacent windward and leeward lowlands north of 35°S. Based on the fact that ~75% of the wintertime precipitation accumulated in the fourth quartile, through four or five heavy events on average, the synoptic-scale patterns of the heavy (into fourth quartile) orographic precipitation events were identified. Heavy events are strongly related to strong water vapor transport from the Pacific Ocean in the pre-cold-front environment of extratropical cyclones, which would have the form of atmospheric rivers as depicted in the reanalysis and rawinsonde data. The composite fields revealed a marked difference between two subgroups of heavy precipitation events. The extreme (100th–95th percentiles) events are associated with deeper cyclones than those for intense (95th–75th percentiles) events. These deeper cyclones lead to much stronger plumes of water vapor content and cross-barrier moisture flux against the high Andes, resulting in heavier orographic precipitation for extreme events. In addition, regional airflow characteristics suggest that the low-level flow is typically blocked and diverted poleward in the form of an along-barrier jet. On the lee side, downslope flow dominates during heavy events, producing prominent rain shadow effects as denoted by the domain of downslope winds extending to low-leeward side (i.e., zonda wind).
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Tam, Chi-Yung, et Tim Li. « The Origin and Dispersion Characteristics of the Observed Tropical Summertime Synoptic-Scale Waves over the Western Pacific* ». Monthly Weather Review 134, no 6 (1 juin 2006) : 1630–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr3147.1.
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Abstract The origin, initiation, and dispersion behavior of the observed summertime synoptic-scale disturbances in the tropical western Pacific are studied. These westward-propagating disturbances have the strongest growth rate over the region of ∼130°–160°E off the equator. The three-dimensional wave activity flux associated with a wave packet in the vicinity of this region is computed. In general, wave activity is directed westward. There is accumulation of activity flux, which gives rise to the amplification of waves. In the low levels, such accumulation can be attributed to the convergence of both the mean flow and the intrinsic group velocity. Diabatic forcing also contributes to the growth of disturbances and is most important in the 500–600-hPa layer. Along the east–west-oriented “storm tracks” of the synoptic-scale disturbances, there are two different dynamical regimes. West of ∼150°E, enhanced convection is associated with increased specific humidity at the top of the planetary boundary layer and is in phase with positive low-level vorticity anomalies. To the east of 150°E the vorticity leads the convection by about one-quarter of a wavelength. This phase relationship can be explained by adiabatic dynamics and is related to the positive vertical shear of the mean zonal flow in the latter region. Near and to the east of the date line where disturbances are initiated in the low levels, the heat flux associated with the synoptic-scale eddies is negative (i.e., υ′T ′ < 0) from about 300 to 700 hPa. This implies downward-directed wave activity. In the upper troposphere at the same geographical location, there is southward wave activity from the extratropics penetrating into the Tropics. These findings suggest that summertime synoptic-scale disturbances may originate from extratropical forcing. This hypothesis is supported by a case study. Intrusion of high potential vorticity into the Tropics was seen to be followed by downward development, resulting in low-level disturbances that subsequently moved westward in the western Pacific and grew.
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Elsiofy, Amro, Mahmoud Elsherif, Moawed F. Eladawy, Tarek Mahmoud et Ahmed F. Sakr. « How Safe and Technical Is Modified Dunn Osteotomy in the Management of Patients with SCFE : A Clinical Trial with Short-Term Follow-Up ». Advances in Orthopedics 2023 (7 décembre 2023) : 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/2742083.
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Objective. Over the last decade, modified Dunn osteotomy has been widely used in the management of slipped capital femoral epiphysis (SCFE) with varying degrees of complications. Different conclusions have been adopted. Our study represented our experience in using such a technique in stable and unstable SCFE and tried to determine its safety and applicability for routine practice. Methods. Our study adopted an interventional prospective design performed on 24 hips divided evenly between both sexes with a mean age of 13.25. On the Southwick classification, the cases were distributed between moderate and severe, which constituted 41.7% and 58.33%, respectively. Three quarters of the study subjects were stable according to the Loder classification. Each underwent modified Dunn osteotomy after a safe surgical hip dislocation. Results. Over the period of about 1-year follow-up, clinical evaluation was performed by examining the surgical site and assessing the legs’ length, range of hip movement, Harris hip score, and iHOT-12 score. Radiological assessment was performed by calculation of slip angle from the frog lateral view, assessment of union, and occurrence of any complications. The study showed that there was significant improvement in patients in terms of radiological and clinical outcomes, with the occurrence of AVN in 16.7% of cases (4 out of 24). All cases of AVN occurred in unstable hips. Conclusion. Despite the complication of AVN, we believe the results of this study add to the current literature which suggests that modified Dunn osteotomy is an effective and safe technique for the management of moderate and severe SCFE. This trial is registered with PACTR202312819351504.
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M. Sabra, Sherifa Mostafa. « A Wild-plant extract could eliminate infectious-pathogens, Ranyah, KSA ». Journal of Biotechnology and Biomedical Science 3, no 1 (20 février 2023) : 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.14302/issn.2576-6694.jbbs-22-4418.
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Saudi Arabia is rich in Juniperusprocera Hochst. ex Endl (Cupressaceae) as a medicinal plant. Its known as Arar, its present southwards, KSA. It's used as traditional medicine in the southwestern, KSA. The aim was according to "Saudi Arabian Customs" in using wild-plant extract for treatment and prevention of infectious-pathogens. That was to use Juniperusprocerafrom Ranyah, KSA to eliminate infectious-pathogens that were isolated from patients in the same area. This was the use may reduce the use of chemicals, as well it may be an alternative to chemotherapy. Practice included preparation of wild-plant extract, preparation of infectious-pathogens, interaction to wild-plant extract, and direct total cell count by "Bread Test". Juniperusprocera one crude concentration killed all infectious-pathogens during one day. Lower Juniperusprocera crude extract concentrations eliminated infectious-pathogens within more than one day. The mean number of dead sells / mL of Staphylococcus sp., Streptococcus sp, and Streptococcus pyogenes were (84.9 / mL, 87.0 / mL, and 77.8 / mL). The mean percent of dead cells were (80.0%, 82.0%, and 73.4%). The meannumber of dead sells / mL of Salmonella sp., Shigella sp, and Escherichia coli were (72.6 / mL, 76.1 / mL, and 79.0 / mL). The mean percent of dead cells were (68.5%, 71.8%, and 74.5%). The mean number of Candida albicans dead sells / mL was 69.3 / mL, the mean percent of dead cells was 65.4%. It was concluded that found from the results, the Juniperusprocera extract was preferred "Saudi Arabian Customs" to be used in three quarter and one crude concentration, as the infectious-pathogens eliminating within one day. It was recommended that the Juniperusprocera extract will be used for herbal treatment according to "Saudi Arabian Customs". That will be remark and follow-up through the "Official Herbal Treatment Dept.". That will appropriate the doses will estimate for each patient to eliminate and protect against the infectious-pathogens.
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Kim, Hyung-Jin, Bin Wang et Qinghua Ding. « The Global Monsoon Variability Simulated by CMIP3 Coupled Climate Models* ». Journal of Climate 21, no 20 (15 octobre 2008) : 5271–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2041.1.
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Abstract The global monsoon climate variability during the second half of the twentieth century simulated by 21 coupled global climate models (CGCMs) that participated in the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) is evaluated. Emphasis was placed on climatology, multidecadal trend, and the response of the global monsoon precipitation to volcanic aerosols. The impact of the atmospheric model’s horizontal resolution on the group ensemble mean (GEM; obtained from the three resolution groups) simulations of global monsoon climate is also examined. The CMIP3 CGCMs’ multimodel ensemble simulates a reasonably realistic climatology of the global monsoon precipitation and circulation. The GEMs are also able to capture the gross features of the global monsoon precipitation and westerly domains. However, the spreading among the rainfall GEMs is large, particularly at the windward side of narrow mountains (e.g., the western coast of India, the Philippines, Mexico, and the steep slope of the Tibetan Plateau). Main common biases in modeling rainfall climatology include a northeastward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the tropical North Pacific and a southward migration of the North Atlantic ITCZ during boreal winter. The trend in the Northern Hemisphere land monsoon index (NHMI) detected in the CMIP3 models is generally consistent with the observations, albeit with much weaker magnitude. The significant decreasing NHMI trend during 1951–85 and 1951–99 occurs mainly in the models with volcanic aerosols (VOL models). This volcanic signal is detectable by comparison of the forced and free runs. It is estimated that from about one-quarter to one-third of the drying trend in the Northern Hemisphere land monsoon precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century was likely due to the effects of the external volcanic forcings. On the other hand, the significant increasing trend in the global ocean monsoon index (GOMI) during 1980–99 appears chiefly in those models that are free of volcanic aerosols (No-VOL models). The exclusion of the volcanic aerosols is significant in simulating the positive GOMI trend against the internal variability of each model. These results suggest the climatic importance of the volcanic forcings in the global monsoon precipitation variability.
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Berberian, Manuel. « The 2003 Bam Urban Earthquake : A Predictable Seismotectonic Pattern along the Western Margin of the Rigid Lut Block, Southeast Iran ». Earthquake Spectra 21, no 1_suppl (décembre 2005) : 35–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.2127909.
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“…King Ardeshir Babakan Sassanid [r. AD 224-241], by conquering Kerman and Bam, killed the ‘Kerm-e-Haftvad’ [the Haftvad Silk Worm] at the Bam Citadel. The gigantic worm burst with a big bang noise, which rocked the area, completely destroyed the Bam Citadel, and killed most of the inhabitants of the Citadel. King Ardeshir put an end to the rule of governor Haftvad, built the new village of Kolalan/Kojaran [Kurzan; the old Deh Shotor quarter in west Bam], and brought the ‘seven sacred fires of Bahram’ to the new village…”[Book of Deeds of Ardashir Pabagan 1878 (English Tr., original version ca. AD 272); Tabari 915; Ferdowsi Tusi 1010; & Mostaufi Qazvini 1340. The entire episode rests on the rationalization of historical events of unknown nature, and perhaps the legendary element could be a possible, mixed metaphoric reference to a ‘destructive earthquake’ or even a ‘conquering battle’ against the ancient city of Bam and its Parthian governor, Haftvad!]The impact of the Bam urban earthquake of 26 December 2003 (Mw6.6) was far more devastating than that which would be expected from a moderate-magnitude earthquake. The event followed a predictable geological/seismological pattern of a specially clustered sequence of medium- to large- magnitude earthquakes on tectonically related active faults in a region with historic slip deficits along the western margin of the rigid Lut block. The earthquake was accompanied by the coseismic rupture of sub-parallel strike-slip faults in a zone revealing a pattern of temporal clustering of seismicity, loading of adjacent faults, and a southwards progressing trend of earthquakes from the Kuh Banan to the Gowk and the Bam fault systems. As with the Agadir, Morocco, earthquake of 1960, and the great Tangshan, China, earthquake of 1976, the Bam urban earthquake painfully demonstrated the growing vulnerability of a city built on or adjacent to a seismic fault, unprepared to be tested by the severe ground motion triggered by a medium magnitude earthquake. The absence of historical seismic records regarding the occurrence of earthquakes in the region or the lengthy time spans between such disasters has been erroneously interpreted as a lack of any potential threat for the last 2,500 years in the city of Bam.
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Carbutt, Clinton. « The Greater Midlands—A Mid-Elevation Centre of Floristic Endemism in Summer-Rainfall Eastern South Africa ». Diversity 15, no 11 (9 novembre 2023) : 1137. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d15111137.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The Midlands region of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Province in South Africa was hitherto a putative centre of floristic endemism (CFE) based on conjecture. The aim of this study was to empirically explore this concept by delineating unambiguous boundaries for this CFE and documenting the endemic spermatophytes within a conservation framework. The Greater Midlands Centre of Floristic Endemism (GMCFE), a more expanded study area than the parochial Midlands region of KZN, is formally described as southern Africa’s 20th CFE. It is a mid-elevation region occupying the greater Midlands of KZN, with extensions of contiguous grasslands extending northwards into southern Mpumalanga and southwards into north-eastern Eastern Cape. This “foothills” CFE covers ca. 77,000 km2 of predominantly mesic C4 grassland, ranging in elevation from ca. 700–2200 m a.s.l. It is congruent with the “sub-escarpment ecoregion,” essentially a composite of the Sub-escarpment Grassland and Savanna Bioregions and the sub-escarpment grasslands of southern Mpumalanga and northern KZN. The GMCFE hosts at least 220 endemic spermatophytes, of which almost a fifth belong to the family Apocynaceae. Families Asteraceae, Asphodelaceae, Fabaceae, and Iridaceae also contribute significantly. Genera Ceropegia, Aloe, Dierama, Kniphofia, Helichrysum, and Streptocarpus contribute the most endemics. More than half are forbs, and almost three-quarters are confined to the Grassland Biome. Endemic radiations are attributed to geodiversity and geological complexity (especially the strong lithological influence of dolerite); physiographic heterogeneity (particularly elevation gradients and variable terrain units); strategic proximity to hyper-diverse temperate and subtropical “border floras”; and localized pollinator-driven adaptive radiations. Of alarming concern is the high number of threatened plant taxa, with ca. 60% of the endemic flora Red Listed in threat categories (CE, E, and VU) or considered “rare”. Extremely low levels of formal protection and poor ecological connectivity, coupled with high levels of land transformation and intensive utilization, render the GMCFE one of the most imperilled CFE in South Africa. Urgent conservation action is required to safeguard this unique and highly threatened “rangeland flora” and stem the biodiversity crisis gripping the region.
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Rogers, James P., et Mark W. Longman. « Reservoir Characterization of the Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Lower Bartlesville Sandstone in Big Sandy and Clinesmith Fields, Southeast Kansas ». Mountain Geologist 56, no 2 (1 mai 2019) : 185–226. http://dx.doi.org/10.31582/rmag.mg.56.2.185.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Big Sandy and Clinesmith oil fields are located about five miles apart along the boundary between Woodson and Wilson counties in southeast Kansas. They are located on the Pennsylvanian Cherokee Platform and were discovered almost 60 years apart in 1923 and 1982 respectively. Both fields produce from Desmoinesian lower Bartlesville sandstone reservoirs at shallow depths (1,100 to 1,200 ft) from reservoirs that have been interpreted as “shoestring sandstones.” However, if Big Sandy is restricted just to the area of Section 23 and the southeast quarter of Section 22, T26S, R14E where it offers the best wireline log control, the two fields have different orientations. Big Sandy has a southwest/northeast trend almost perpendicular to Clinesmith Field, which trends from north-northwest to southward. Big Sandy Field has a more elliptical shape with a length-to-width ratio of 3:1, vs. 10:1 for the very linear Clinesmith Field. Another major difference between the two fields is that the gamma-ray logs in and along the Clinesmith reservoir trend generally have a fairly well-defined fining-upward trend characteristic of a fluvial channel system. Big Sandy logs, in contrast, show much more variability from well to well. Petrographically the two fields have characteristics that are both consistent and strikingly different. Both reservoirs have a consistent very-fine to fine sand grain size with fair to well-sorted grains. Both also have texturally immature grains that are angular to subrounded with nearly identical compositions of abundant quartz, and associated plagioclase, biotite, muscovite, plant debris, and metamorphic rock fragments. Thus, the Bartlesville Sandstone in both fields had the same nearby sediment source terrain comprised mainly of granites and metamorphic rocks. Each field also produces mainly from primary interparticle porosity in sandstones with loosely packed grains where total porosity locally exceeds 20%. A difference is that, although both fields contain common shale clasts, those in Big Sandy Field tend to be much larger and occur with common siderite (iron carbonate) nodules. Siderite is rare in Clinesmith Field although a few small nodules occur in the associated floodplain shales, along with carbonaceous partings. Also present in Big Sandy’s reservoir are other iron-bearing minerals such as glauconite, pyrite, and chlorite, although all of these are far less common than the siderite. Such an abundance of iron-rich minerals can occur in marginal marine environments such as estuaries where a reducing diagenetic environment forms just below the sediment/water interface. In contrast, well-oxygenated fluvial systems generally contain any iron in highly oxidized forms such as hematite and limonite. From these observations, it appears that Big Sandy’s reservoir interval was deposited in an estuarine (coastal marine) setting with diverse localized depositional environments whereas the Clinesmith reservoir represents a nearly straight, south-flowing fluvial channel and adjacent floodplain, with no marine influence on deposition.
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Busse, Przemysław. « The European Autumn Migration Pattern of the Blackcap, Sylvia atricapilla – From Faunistic Observations to a Basic Analysis of Orientation Cage Field Data ». Ring 43, no 1 (1 décembre 2021) : 3–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/ring-2021-0001.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract Presentation of a general pattern of migration is very difficult in the case of small passerines, especially nocturnal migrants, as the few accepted methods are inefficient here. It is difficult to follow migration visually (by visual field observations or moon watching). Classic ringing must be extremely intensive due to low or very low recovery rates, especially in Africa, Eastern Europe and Asia, which additionally rule out any reasonable estimation of the intensity of migration towards different destinations. Radar studies tell us nothing about the migration of individual species. Even the most modern methods, such as geolocation and radio tracking, are of very limited use for population studies. For these reasons, in most cases our knowledge in this area is fragmentary and insufficient for a satisfactory description of migration. In many cases only the breeding areas have been faunistically described in detail, while the winter-quarters and areas where the species is observed during migration are frequently described with less precision. The introduction of an effective method for studying local headings of migrants, using ‘orientation cages’, has made it possible to study the migration patterns of small passerine nocturnal migrants. The presented work is a case study on the migration pattern of the Blackcap, using data from orientation tests collected in autumn as part of the work of SEEN (SE European Bird Migration Network), consisting of 5,392 tests performed at 28 ringing sites in Central/Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The paper continues the discussion of the problem of applying the method to presentation of migration patterns in a geographically wide territory (Busse 2018, 2019, 2020). The hypothesis put forth by Busse (2019) that the arrival/departure heading axes are generally linear is accurate to within about one 10° sector was confirmed earlier. Here it was confirmed at the level of local patterns for the study sites. In general, the average deviation from the straight line is below 1°. However, there is some geographical variation, and this problem could be discussed when many more results of this kind become available for a few more species. Eight headings/streams of migrants are defined for the Blackcap within the area. Southward and south-eastern streams dominate in most of the study area. However, a very special, nearly longitudinal heading was found in southern Europe and the Middle East, which requires further study. Comparison of the patterns obtained from three different procedures strongly suggests that the general picture of Blackcap migration in Central/Eastern Europe and the Middle East is clear and coherent. Some variation in migration stream parameters (linearity and reversed heading share) suggests that further research in this direction should be conducted using data from other species.
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Karamiani, Rasoul, et Nasrullah Rastegar-Pouyani. « The effect of climate change on habitat suitability and a distribution model of the Iranian fat-tailed gecko, Eublepharis angramainyu Anderson and Leviton, 1966 (Sauria : Eublepharidae) since the Last Interglacial to 2050 ». Zoology and Ecology, 10 septembre 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35513/21658005.2021.1.5.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Surveying the role of climate changes on the species distributions in the past, present and future, and correlating these with changes in distribution ranges have attracted considerable research interest. The leopard geckos of the genus Eublepharis Gray, 1827 (family Eublepharidae), as a vicariate group, comprises six valid species distributed from Turkey through the Iranian Plateau to India, of which E. angramainyu, E. macularius and E. turcmenicus occur in Iran. In this study, we modelled the potential distribution areas for E. angramainyu and determined the suitable habitats in the past (the last interglacial [LIG] and mid-Holocene [MH]), present (1950–2000), and also predicted four scenarios in the future (2050) by using the maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt). The obtained models indicated very good values of the area under curve (AUC): LIG = 0.996 ± 0.003, MH = 0.996 ± 0.004, contemporary period = 0.995 ± 0.004, and the future = 0.997 ± 0.002. Precipitation of the coldest quarter and precipitation of the warmest quarter were the most important factors shaping the distribution of E. angramainyu. As it seems, climatic changes have been responsible for a southward shift in distribution and suitable habitats of E. angramainyu from the LIG (~150,000–120,000 years ago) to the future. The representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario model of the future predicted a much more restricted distribution and less suitable habitats due to radiation of the forcing level which reaches a value of around 3.1 W/m² by mid-century and returns to 2.6 W/m² by 2100.
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Nilsson, Leif, et Hakon Kampe-Persson. « Changes in migration and wintering patterns of Greylag Geese Anser anser from southernmost Sweden during three decades ». Ornis Svecica 28, no 1 (1 janvier 2018). http://dx.doi.org/10.34080/os.v28.19521.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The recent increase of the Greylag Goose Anser anser population has caused complaints about crop damage. In response to this, the Nordic Collegium for Wildlife Research started a neck-banding program to elucidate the migration and movement patterns. During 1984–2009, 2,639 Greylag Geese were marked in a breeding area in SW Scania, southernmost Sweden. Up to and including 2012, 15,296 re-sightings were reported from outside the breeding area (in addition to more than 100 000 from the breeding area). In the early years of the study, the majority of the geese migrated to winter in southernmost Spain, staging in The Netherlands. In later years, hardly any individuals migrated to Spain, the majority staying in The Netherlands with an increasing proportion wintering in southern Sweden. From 1986 to 2017, the mean latitude for re-sightings changed ten degrees to the north. About 13% of the geese changed winter quarters between two consecutive winters. Moreover, the southward migration occurred much later in the autumn and the geese returned to the breeding areas about one month earlier in spring.
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Salomon, Amit, Giorgi Kozhoridze, Eyal Shochat et Ofer Ovadia. « The desert exploiter : An overabundant crow species exhibits a neighborhood diffusion pattern into the southern region of Israel ». Ornithological Applications 123, no 3 (20 mai 2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ornithapp/duab021.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract Understanding the causes of spread of overabundant species plays a key role in deciphering their invasion mechanisms, while providing managers with targeted management actions to control their spread. The objective of this research was to quantify the spread of Hooded Crow (Corvus cornix) in Israel and to elucidate the causes of its spread. Long-term occurrence data of Hooded Crow sightings were used to analyze the species range expansion rate. This dataset was analyzed with a range of climatic, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and land-use variables. Analysis of opportunistic presence-only data, corrected for possible sampling biases, illustrated traveling waves of eastward expansion, from the Mediterranean coast into Israel’s central mountain range, and a star-like pattern of spread southward into the northwestern Negev desert. A diffusion equation model revealed an expansion rate of 1.60 km year–1. Land-use analysis revealed an affinity of sighted individuals toward urban and low vegetation land types. Hooded Crow sightings were positively correlated with annual precipitation, with the remaining variation being negatively correlated with precipitation during the wettest quarter. Species distribution modeling suggested that the species has established new populations and is currently expanding its range. The slow rate of dispersal is consistent with a neighborhood diffusion pattern, corresponding to the species life-history traits. Human-managed environments, including low-cover agricultural fields, provide constant available food and nesting trees, allowing the Hooded Crow to thrive all year-round. Precipitation may aid in enhancing Hooded Crow tolerance toward other unfavorable physical conditions. In light of these new findings, management plans ought to recognize centers of Hooded Crow activity as indicators of highly disturbed native wildlife communities. Also, our findings emphasize the need to establish agri-environmental schemes (AES) in such areas, which would raise community resistance to overabundant species. As AES are currently not in place on a national scale, and since their creation has the power to improve landscape connectivity of native species, this last component is especially necessary.
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Søreide, Janne E., Rolf Gradinger, Marti Amargant-Arumí, Rita Amundsen, Julie Blitz-Thorsen, Yasemin V. Bodur, Maria G. Digernes et al. « Seasonal cruise Q4 2019 ». Nansen Legacy Report Series, no 36 (31 octobre 2022). http://dx.doi.org/10.7557/nlrs.6750.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This cruise was the second of in total four seasonal cruises with RV Kronprins Haakon in 2019/20 focusing on biology in the project Arven etter Nansen (AeN). This seasonal cruise was named Q4 (Q4= 4th quarter of the year) investigating in total 17 stations of the established AeN transect along 34 E in the Northern Barents Sea and adjacent Arctic Basin from 76 to 82°N (see Fig. 1 below). The cruise addressed objectives of the research foci in RF1 on Physical drivers, RF2 on Human drivers, RF3 on the living Barents Sea and RA-C Technology and method development, and collected a multitude of data along the Nansen Legacy transect which was ice covered except the southernmost station P1. In addition to in situ sampling, on board experiments were conducted to quantify biological processes, rates and interactions that will also be important feeds into modeling work and projections in RF4 The future Barents Sea.
The cruise took a variety of continuous ship measurements (Weather station, EK80, EM203, ADCP, thermosalinograph, pCO2 underway) as well as station measurements such as CTD with water samples, biological sampling of the benthos (box corer, benthic trawl), water column (multinet, MIK net, macrozooplankton trawl and many other smaller nets) and sea ice (snow, ice cores, water just underneath sea ice). In addition, experimental work (respiration, grazing and egg production) was conducted in the ship’s laboratories. The chemistry team onboard measured oxygen, nutrients and pH from standard depths on most CTD stations and sea ice samples.
The cruise started in Longyearbyen and ended in Tromsø (28.11.-17.12.2019). The sampling began at the deep (>3000 m) northernmost station of the transect, Stn. P7, and continued along the southward transect until station P1, in open water and Atlantic dominated water masses. During the expedition the Barents Sea was characterized by a relatively large sea ice cover with consolidated sea ice all the way from P7 to P2. The Polar Front was located just north of P1. All process stations were sampled (P7-P1) as well as two ice stations: one close to P7 ad one close to P5. At the southernmost station P1, stormy weather challenged sampling, but most tasks were in the end accomplished except of deploying the box corer, sediment trap and the AUV. These operations were considered too challenging due to strong drift and ship movement, and it was not safe to conduct small boat operations. Challenges with the box corer was also experienced at the deep station P7 due to technical issues. In the end, most work was accomplished despite challenging weather, sea ice conditions and some technical issues making this cruise successful in gaining new important knowledge about the Northern Barents Sea in the polar night season which is extremely poorly studied. The overall high biological activity and biomass at this time of the year, November-December, was surprising for most of us.