Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Price revision »

We document several factors that help explain cross-sectional variations in the post-revision price drift associated with analyst forecast revisions. First, the market does not make a sufficient distinction between revisions that provide new information (“high-innovation” revisions) and revisions that merely move toward the consensus (“low-innovation” revisions). Second, the price adjustment process is faster and more complete for “celebrity” analysts (Institutional Investor All-Stars) than for more obscure yet highly accurate analysts (Wall Street Journal Earnings-Estimators). Third, controlling for other factors, the price adjustment process is faster and more complete for firms with greater analyst coverage. Finally, a substantial portion of the delayed price adjustment occurs around subsequent earnings-announcement and forecast-revision dates. Collectively, these findings show that more subtle aspects of an earnings revision signal can hinder the efficacy of market price discovery, particularly in firms with relatively low analyst coverage, and that subsequent earnings-related news events serve as catalysts in the price discovery process.

In this study I analyse the correlation between stock returns before and after analyst recommendation revisions. I hypothesise that if a recommendation revision for a given stock takes place after a short period when the stock?s price moves in the opposite direction, it may indicate that the fundamentals that caused the analyst to revise their recommendation are less completely (if at all) incorporated in the stock price, significantly increasing the probability of subsequent post-event price drift. Analysing a large sample of recommendation revisions, I document that both recommendation upgrades and downgrades are followed by significant one-tosix-month price drifts (reversals) if they are preceded by the opposite-sign (same-sign) short-term cumulative abnormal returns. The effect remains significant after accounting for additional relevant company specific (size, Market Model beta, historical volatility) and event-specific (stock?s return and trading volume on the event day, brokerage firm size, analyst experience, recommendation category before the revision, number of categories changed in the revision) factors.

ObjectivesThe European Commission has formally opened a process of revision of its tobacco tax directive. The purpose of this study is to analyse the evolution of cigarette and roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco prices in order to identify avenues for the improvement of public health goals.MethodsPooled cross-sectional data on prices and taxes on cigarettes and RYO tobacco in the Member States over 2004–2015 is used to track the distributions of the most popular price category and the weighted average price of these products and to relate them to the underlying tax structure.ResultsThe inflation-adjusted prices for the two products have increased over the period, but the dispersion of prices across Member States has remained constant. Throughout the period, there was a pervasive price gap between cigarettes and RYO tobacco within the Member States. Such features are explained by the underlying tax design.DiscussionThe current tax stance has been successful at increasing both cigarette and RYO tobacco prices. To further enhance the public health impact of the European Union tax directive, the revision should promote the convergence of prices across Member States and aim at closing the price gap between cigarettes and RYO tobacco. These objectives call for increasing the mandatory minimum levels of excise duty on the two products, preferably linking them to the evolution of a European weighted average price. The pace of increase should be faster for RYO tobacco in order to close the gap with respect to cigarette prices.

This work utilizes the Taiwanese data primarily focused on retailing investor behavior to examine whether Taiwanese brokerage analysts issue target price revisions, whether implicit information connotation exists and whether their own brokerages use the market reaction brought about by target price revisions to conduct conflict of interest operations. The event study is used to verify whether the above results exist. The empirical results show that analysts may publish information that includes investment recommendations, earnings forecasts, or price target forecasts. Whether investors with immediate and post-event media coverage revise their relevant investment strategies and avoid serious losses caused by this news is established. The research results show that the target price revision has implicit information content no matter the target price being revised. In addition, a conflict of interest between dealers’ trading behavior and analysts’ target price revisions exists. The major contribution of this work is to fill the research gaps concerning which retail investors are easily influenced by social media and herding behavior, as well as target price forecasting. The most efficient use of resources relates to the satisfaction of everyone’s interests on a fair basis, and thus greater contribution. The governance mechanism and check and balance function can help maximize the value of the company, not only by enhancing the competitiveness of the enterprise, but also by increasing the value of shareholders’ rights and interests and better fulfilling corporate social responsibility.

ABSTRACT We study the information content and determinants associated with voluntary management disclosures of going concern (GC) uncertainties by IPO issuers. In terms of information content, we examine IPO price revision and initial return and find robust support that management GC disclosures are associated with downward revisions in the IPO offer price and, upon considering the mediating effects of the price revision, also associated with lower initial returns. In terms of determinants, and after controlling for other factors (e.g., issuer distress, start-up status, size, cash burn), we find that the presence of a management GC disclosure is negatively associated with a proxy for issuer financial incentives to withhold “bad news” and positively associated with the extent of risk factors disclosure. Overall, our results provide support for the information content of voluntary management disclosures of GC uncertainties by IPO issuers, the presence of which is associated with agency and risk motivations. JEL Classifications: G24; G32; M13; M41.

Many papers estimate the price elasticity of water demand. However, heterogeneity and temporal variation of price elasticity of residential water use are still unclear. We analyze these issues by applying the latent class analysis and t-test using disaggregated data of approximately 30,000 households recorded over five years: Two years before and three years after a tariff revision. As a result, the households are divided into three (heterogeneous) groups: About 5% of them responded to the price change sensitively, 40–60% slightly, and 35–55% not at all. Households with high water use prior to the revision had higher price elasticity. In addition, the price elasticity in the first and third years after the revision was the same.

China and Japan are the two largest importers of natural gas in the world. Both countries have accelerated the reform of domestic natural gas markets and the establishment of domestic natural gas trading centers (natural gas hubs) in order to achieve carbon neutrality goals and ensure the security of domestic natural gas supplies. The conclusion of short- and medium-term contracts for the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) affected the execution of long-term contracts, the prices of which were tied to JCC. As a result, Chinese and Japanese natural gas buyers began to demand that international natural gas sellers, including Russia, use hub market prices. The article analyzes measures to ensure the security of natural gas supplies and reforms of domestic natural gas markets in China and Japan. The interrelations, advantages and disadvantages of long-term, short-term and spot contracts are highlighted. Based on the analysis of the court decision in the case of GNA v. Atlantic LNG, the conclusions of international arbitration practice on price revision clauses are summarized. The following conclusions are drawn： 1. Arbitration proceedings on the revision of prices contributes to the transition from a formula for calculating prices linked to the oil price index to a pricing mechanism based on various indices of natural gas hubs.2. When concluding a new long-term contract, it is proposed to comprehensively use the price index of the emerging shopping center, the spot price and the price formula calculated by JCC.3. A long-term contract still plays an integral role in ensuring safe natural gas supplies in extreme events (for example: a similar COVID-19 epidemic).

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the application of robust techniques to the estimation of hedonic house price indexes. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use simulation analysis to compare an index estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) with several indexes estimated using robust techniques. The analysis uses sales transactions data from a US city. The authors then explore how robust methods can correct for omitted variables under some circumstances and how they affect the revision problem that occurs when longitudinal hedonic indexes are updated. Findings – Robust methods can resolve missing variable problems in some circumstances and also can substantially reduce the revision problem in longitudinal hedonic indexes. Practical implications – Robust techniques may be preferable to OLS when constructing longitudinal hedonic indexes. Originality/value – This is the first paper to undertake a systematic analysis of the applicability of robust techniques in constructing hedonic house price indexes.

Price review arbitration remains a prevalent feature of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry. Contractual pricing schemes may require periodical adjustment to realign them with prevailing commercial realities or market conditions. Price review clauses may provide for the review and potential revision of the contract price, by agreement, at specific times and on the occurrence and fulfillment of certain conditions.Where agreement cannot be reached, disputes will often be settled by international arbitration. Some of the more commonly seen characteristics of price review clauses are explored below, together with the associated processes by which parties may seek to agree revision of the contract price, and failing agreement, the referral of that dispute to arbitration.

Il presente elaborato ha ad oggetto la disciplina delle variazioni nel contratto di appalto e l’applicabilità analogica dell’istituto della revisione del prezzo, disciplinato dall’art. 1664 del codice civile. La tesi è strutturata in tre differenti capitoli. Il primo capitolo è stato interamente dedicato all’analisi degli elementi essenziali del contratto di appalto che apparivano maggiormente connessi all’oggetto della trattazione. Nello specifico, si è dato risalto a tematiche quali la natura commutativa del contratto di appalto e il suo inquadramento nella categoria dei contratti a esecuzione prolungata. È stata inoltre data una primaria rilevanza alla definizione dell’oggetto del contratto di appalto e ai requisiti che questo deve avere affinché sia ottemperato il disposto dell’art. 1346 c.c. Nel secondo capitolo ci si è concentrati sull’analisi della disciplina delle variazioni nel contratto di appalto prevista agli artt. 1659, 1660 e 1661 del codice civile. Si sono quindi affrontate tutte le principali questioni interpretative relative all’applicazione di tali disposizioni, cercando sempre di qualificare, in termini giuridici, la natura della singola variazione considerata. Tale disamina è stata inoltre compiuta evidenziando come le disposizioni in materia di variazioni, oltre a garantire un’indiscutibile elasticità al contratto di appalto, individuino come obiettivo primario il soddisfacimento dell’interesse del committente, al quale è sempre garantito il controllo sull’esecuzione del contratto. Nel secondo capitolo è stato altresì analizzato l’art. 1664 del codice civile che, disciplinando l’ipotesi in cui nel corso dell’esecuzione sopraggiungano eventi imprevedibili in grado di incidere sull’onerosità o sulla difficoltà delle prestazioni oggetto di appalto, individua come unico rimedio azionabile l’adeguamento del contratto concluso. Nello specifico, è stato rilevato come tale disposizione costituisca una norma speciale rispetto all’art. 1467 c.c., il quale disciplina l’eccessiva onerosità sopravvenuta della prestazione nei contratti di durata. Infine, nel terzo capitolo si è rilevato come una delle criticità che la dottrina rileva in relazione alla tematica delle sopravvenienze riguarda l’impossibilità di individuare strumenti manutentivi di portata generale in grado di garantire la conservazione del rapporto contrattuale a fronte di un’eccessiva onerosità sopravvenuta della prestazione; una questione che si pone principalmente in relazione a quei contratti definiti di lunga durata che richiedono per la loro esecuzione, al pari dell’appalto, il compimento di una serie di atti prodromici all’adempimento. Dopo aver illustrato le critiche mosse nei confronti della modifica secondo equità disciplinata dal terzo comma dall’art. 1467 c.c., sono stati analizzati i limiti delle diverse tipologie di clausole diffuse nella prassi commerciale e impiegate al fine di garantire la conservazione del vincolo contrattuale. Inoltre, sono stati evidenziate le ragioni per cui non risulta neppure sostenibile la possibilità di configurare un obbligo legale di rinegoziazione. Si sono quindi affrontate, senza alcuna pretesa di completezza, le disposizioni elaborate in materia di eccessiva onerosità sopravvenuta nei principali orientamenti europei e nei sistemi di soft law. In conclusione, si è accolta la tesi che vede come una possibile soluzione alla necessità di individuare un rimedio manutentivo applicabile ai contratti di lunga durata il ricorso all’applicazione analogica dell’art. 1664 c.c., il quale costituirebbe norma speciale, ma non eccezionale, e quindi non rientrante nel divieto di cui all’art. 14 delle disposizioni sulla legge in generale.
This resarch is aimed, on the one hand, to address the many complexties arising from the "changes to the contracts" legal discipline envisioned under articles 1659, 1660 and 1661 of the Italian Civil Code and, on the other hand, to explore whether it is possible to apply by analogy article 1664 of the same Italian Civil Code. More specifically, chapter I provides for a definition of the research field and, precisely, highlights and describes the specific elements of the "procurmement contract" envisioned under article 1655 of the Civil Code. Chapter II focuses on the possibility to amend "procurement contracts" pursuant to articles 1659, 1660 and 1661, as well as on the notion of "unexpected occurences" envisioned under article 1664 of the Italian Civil Code. Finally, chapter III is aimed to demonstrate that article 1664 of the Italian Civil Code may be employed (by analogy) in order to avoid the termination of long-term contract whenever "unexpected occurences" arise during the duration of the contract.

Revision används som ett medel för att utomstående intressenter, exempelvis aktieägare, ska få en kvalitetsstämpel på den information som förmedlas av ett företags ledning. Om revisorerna vill påpeka någonting angående företagets redovisning eller förvaltning utfärdar de en så kallad oren revisionsberättelse. I denna studie undersöker vi om denna orena revisionsberättelse får någon effekt på företagets aktiekurs. Den problemformulering som besvaras är: Har en oren revisionsberättelse någon effekt på svenska publika företags aktiekurser? Tidigare forskning på området har nästan enbart genomförts i utlandet. Denna forskning har dock inte kommit fram till något entydigt resultat. Viss forskning hävdar att en oren revisionsberättelse har en negativ effekt på aktiekursen medan annan gör gällande att den inte påverkar. Ytterligare forskning menar att effekten en oren revisionsberättelse har på aktiekursen beror på faktorer som exempelvis informationsmiljö eller vilken typ av revisorsanmärkning det rör sig om. De teorier vi använder oss av berör främst förhållandet mellan aktieägarna och företagsledningen. Bland dessa teorier kan nämnas agentteorin och teorin om informationsasymmetri. Vi använder oss av en kvantitativ metod och gör en händelsestudie. En händelsestudie går förenklat ut på jämföra en akties verkliga avkastning med dess förväntade avkastning under en tidsperiod runt en specifik händelse. Händelsen i vår studie är offentliggörandet av den orena revisionsberättelsen. Vårt slutliga urval består av 101 observationer av orena revisionsberättelser från 64 svenska börsnoterade aktiebolag som fått minst en oren revisionsberättelse mellan 2004-2013. Vi testar först om det finns någon signifikant effekt på aktiekursen för samtliga observationer. Därtill testar vi även om det finns effekt på aktiekursen för olika branscher, börslistor, typer av orena revisionsberättelser och om den orena revisionsberättelsen inträffar för första gången. Resultaten visar att den orena revisionsberättelsen generellt inte har någon signifikant effekt på svenska publika företags aktiekurser. Vi finner en viss nedåtgående trend under dagarna efter händelsen. Trenden är dock inte statistiskt signifikant. Det väcks därmed ett visst tvivel kring om revisionsberättelsen uppfyller sitt syfte för aktieägarna. Resultaten visar också att effekten på aktiekursen inte nämnvärt skiljer sig åt mellan upprepade orena revisionsberättelser och de som kommer första gången. Inga andra test av hela händelseperioden rörande exempelvis bransch visar på statistisk signifikanta negativa effekter på aktiekursen. Dock finns det enskilda dagar under händelseperioden som visar på signifikans. Några direkta slutsatser av detta är emellertid svåra att dra utan vidare undersökning.

Background. Due to prevailing technological development, telecommunication and computers have become very advanced. This has had a tremendous effect on the financial markets as well, various facilitating financial means have become much more common. One of such is passively managed index funds which does not only use index as a benchmark but also trade the stocks in the index. Thus, guaranteeing the fund a return equal to the market return and to a lower cost than an equally good actively managed fund. Index funds have in recent times increased in popularity, which has left its mark. The price of the stocks included to and excluded from an index has been observed to respectively increase and decrease in value.   Research on the price effects caused by index revision, or the effects that inclusion and exclusion have on the price of underlying shares, has been around since the 1980s. In the literature, it is generally accepted that inclusion to an index results in a positive price development, while exclusion results in a negative price development. However, the literature does not agree on whether the price effects are long-term or short-term. The disagreement began with the first studies in the field, where one author found that the price effects were long-lasting, even permanent. The others, on the other hand, found that the price effects were short-lived and returned to their original value when the trading ceased. Subsequent research is equally inconsistent. Some studies have found temporary changes, and some have found permanent ones. In this uncertainty, different theories of explanation have also been presented for the different outcomes, but these do not agree either. Objectives. To bring some clarity to the problems within the literature, the purpose of this study is to investigate the stock price effects from the reconstruction of a Swedish market index, with consideration of whether the effects are temporary or permanent. Methods. This study applied the event study methodology and the market model to examine the abnormal return found around the announcement day and the changing day. The study is based on 195 stocks that were included to and excluded from the OMX Stockholm Benchmark Index between the years 2009 and 2019.  Results. This study did not find any statistically significant price change in the period before the announcement date. However, there were indications that the announcement day did have a positive effect on the included stocks and a negative effect on the excluded stocks. But the time after the announcement day and prior to the changing day did not show any statistically significant price changes. The changing day and the period after were both found to be negatively significant for inclusions. Thus, indicating a negative price effect on the day of inclusion and the period that followed. These results are consistent with previous studies that have found a price drop on the changing day and the following period. A further test of the relationship between the abnormal return found on the announcement day and the changing day revealed that the price increase was concentrated to the announcement day. A possible explanation for this outcome may be that index funds that trade on the Swedish exchange have recognized the opportunity to trade closer to the announcement day without incurring any losses and acted accordingly. Regarding the exclusions, the changing days were not found to be statistically significant. Neither did the period following the changing day show any statistical significance. This result could be due to a delayed reaction to the changing day, given that this group showed a slow reaction to the announcement day as well. Both the announcement day and the day after the announcement day were statistically significant at the 1% level. Other possible causes for the deviating results are errors in execution or data. Conclusions. The result of this study is consistent with other studies that find a temporary price reaction to the index reconstruction.

This thesis examines the impact of FTSE 100 index revisions on the various aspects of stock market quality and the cost of equity capital. Our study spans over the period 1986¿2009. Our analyses indicate that the index membership enhances all aspects of liquidity, including trading continuity, trading cost and price impact. We also show that the liquidity premium and the cost of equity capital decrease significantly after additions, but do not exhibit any significant change following deletions. The finding that investment opportunities increases after additions, but do not decline following deletions suggests that the benefits of joining an index are likely to be permanent. This evidence is consistent with the investor awareness hypothesis view of Chen et al. (2004, 2006), which suggests that investors¿ awareness improve when a stock becomes a member of an index, but do not diminish after it is removal from the index. Finally, we report significant changes in the comovement of stock returns with the FTSE 100 index around the revision events. These changes are driven mainly by noise-related factors and partly by fundamental-related factors.
International Fellows Program, USA, (IFP) and American-Mideast-Educational and Training Services, Inc. (AMIDEAST).

This thesis examines the impact of FTSE 100 index revisions on the various aspects of stock market quality and the cost of equity capital. Our study spans over the period 1986-2009. Our analyses indicate that the index membership enhances all aspects of liquidity, including trading continuity, trading cost and price impact. We also show that the liquidity premium and the cost of equity capital decrease significantly after additions, but do not exhibit any significant change following deletions. The finding that investment opportunities increases after additions, but do not decline following deletions suggests that the benefits of joining an index are likely to be permanent. This evidence is consistent with the investor awareness hypothesis view of Chen et al. (2004, 2006), which suggests that investors' awareness improve when a stock becomes a member of an index, but do not diminish after it is removal from the index. Finally, we report significant changes in the comovement of stock returns with the FTSE 100 index around the revision events. These changes are driven mainly by noise-related factors and partly by fundamental-related factors.

À partir d'un modèle d’analyse alliant les apports théoriques des sociologies de l'aide familiale et des émotions, nous analysons l'expérience de la prise en charge familiale de la maladie d’Alzheimer à travers trois dilemmes : l’exercice de la toilette du malade, le recours aux structures d'accueil et d’hébergement et l’intervention dans sa vie privée. Ces dilemmes sont appréhendés au prisme de trois registres d'interprétation, d'action et de justification : un registre principiel, un registre relationnel et un registre émotionnel. Nos analyses éclairent ainsi la singularité plurielle des expériences et des implications des proches familiaux des malades
From an analytical model, combining the theoretical contributions of the sociology of family support and the sociology of emotions, we analyze the experience of family care of Alzheimer’s disease through three dilemmas: the exercise of the patient’s toilet, the use of reception and housing structures by families and intervention in the patient’s private life. Theses dilemmas are understood through the prism of three registers of interpretation, action and justification: a register of principles, a relational register and an emotional register. Our analysis light up the plural singularity of experiences and implications of relatives of Alzheimer’s patients
A partir de un modelo analítico que combina las contribuciones teóricas de las sociologías del apoyo familiar y de las emociones, se analiza la experiencia de la atención familiar de la enfermedad de Alzheimer a través de tres dilemas: el ejercicio del baño del enfermo, el uso de centros de día y residencias, y la intervención en su vida privada. Estos dilemas se entienden bajo el prisma de tres registros de interpretación, acción y justificación: un registro de principios, un registro relacional y un registro emocional. Nuestros análisis aclaran la singularidad plural de las experiencias e implicaciones de los familiares de los enfermos

This paper extends the scope of Earnings per share ("EPS") studies by incorporating Bushman et al. (2004)'s conceptual framework of corporate transparency to illustrate how the disclosure requirement of an accounting rule governing EPS could have far-reaching effects on the information environment in US. Informed participants are having a keener edger over average investors in using EPS as a guide to investment value. EPS signals a summary measure of firm performance to market participants. The market reactions to EPS and change in per share earnings provide a distinct opportunity to gauge the informativeness of earnings. The information role will nevertheless derail whenever there is an equity change. The accounting rule stipulates the use of a theoretical construct, the weighted average number of shares, in the denominator for EPS, which the average investor is unable to interpret as the number of shares at the reporting date is the actual, not average number of shares. Relative to the actual-share EPS, the average-share EPS will either inflate or deflate the per share earnings. The informed investors, who can substitute actual number of shares for the theoretical construct, are hence bestowed by the accounting rule an information advantage over the average investors. Earnings response coefficient is significant with denominator of EPS substituted while the explanatory power of theoretical-denominator EPS abates when it is contemporary with the denominator substituted EPS. Financial analysts' expertise in the provision of idiosyncratic information to the market has been compromised by the average-share EPS, which is reflected heretofore in proforma earnings forecasts errors. Proforma earnings use a numerator different from accounting rules and to further temper the denominator with the actual number of shares will make pro-forma EPS forecast unintelligible to users. The unintended consequence of inflating or deflating the per share earnings misleads average investors in their decision-making process. Analysts should not issue proforma earnings forecast while researchers should abstain from using theoretical-denominator EPS for sample firms with equity change as their policy prescriptions may further aggravate the problem. A simple remedy to change the accounting rule, SFAS No. 128 is eminently anticipated, if not warranted.

AbstractThis paper shows the effect of a series of system revisions of judicial real estate auction in the 2000s on three factors: bid acceptance ratio, number of bidders, and highest bid. Using multiyear data of auctions from multiple district courts, I estimate the improvement of the three factors by the revision.Furthermore, comparing real estate auction data with voluntary sale and general real estate trading data, I find that the selling price in auction was greatly lower than the price in voluntary sale even after the system revisions. Based on the empirical results, I suggest about necessity of further system revisions.

AbstractIn this chapter the most famous writer of (female) affective individualism, Jane Austen, and her canonical third published novel Mansfield Park featuring her supposedly most unpopular heroine Fanny Price is juxtaposed with orator Robert Wedderburn’s much more obscure pamphlet The Horrors of Slavery. The chapter also revisits Edward Said’s famous theory of counterpoint in his reading of Austen and proposes instead a focus on entanglement. By contrasting the two texts and their relation to the abolition of the slave trade in 1807, readers get a better understanding of how writers used the affective means of prose writing to introduce more resistant entangled tonalities of familial feeling. Austen presents wilful female subjectivity in a family that invested in slavery and Wedderburn, the unruly planter son, claims familiarity with both his enslaved mother and his slave-owning father, challenging the formula of the “horrors of slavery”. Via internal focalization and incendiary rhetoric respectively both texts tonally also create a more intimate familiarity with their readers. They thus aesthetically resist writing conventions and introduce more ambivalent nuance: pushing the limits of the genre of the country-house novel in Austen and refuting the demure tone of abolitionist writing in Wedderburn.

Social networks on the Internet have seen an enormous growth recently and play a crucial role in different aspects of today's life. They have facilitated information dissemination in ways that have been beneficial for their users but it is also a common belief that they are often used strategically in order to spread information that only serves the objectives of particular users. These properties have inspired a revision of classical opinion formation models from sociology using game-theoretic notions and tools. We follow the same modeling approach, focusing on scenarios where the opinion expressed by each user is a compromise between her internal belief and the opinions of a small number of neighbors among her social acquaintances. We formulate simple games that capture this behavior and quantify the inefficiency of equilibria using the well-known notion of the price of anarchy. Our results indicate that compromise comes at a cost that strongly depends on the neighborhood size.

Abstract Main Electrical Equipment Supplier (MEES) concept has been adopted on mega projects to facilitate overall electrical power system integration and standardization of items/systems within an EPC package as well as across multiple EPC packages and to avoid interface issues. A gap analysis has been performed in this paper based on experience on recent projects and recommendations are proposed as mitigation measures which will benefit Clients, Suppliers as well as FEED/EPC CONTRACTORs. Challenges faced during execution are categorized based on type as well as execution stages. Paper focusses on the major items to be defined as part of the frame agreement during MEES selection to minimize conflicts and issues later on. MEES package pricing (including material, non-material items and services) is done based on agreed Price Book. Gaps are identified as part of this paper including the methodology for change management. Scope limitation is also discussed in detail with clear objective of minimal risk to all stakeholders. Timing and responsibility of MEES selection, that is critical on mega projects with multiple packages, has also been analyzed. Concept of MEES is highly recommended on projects that have complex electrical power system, projects involving multiple EPC CONTRACTORs and also on the projects that are fast track in nature. It has been observed that most projects these days fall into one of these two categories which makes this paper even more relevant. However, execution of MEES package has vast scope for improvement. As part of MEES selection, the following shall be agreed and established, as a minimum: Selected make & model list of all the components along with the unit rates as part of MEES frame agreement that acceptable on project. Price book including all the main equipment envisaged on the project fully complying with project requirements. Comprehensive technical deviations acceptance list as part of MEES frame agreement. Technical compliance certificate indicating Vendor's compliance on the latest revision of Specifications/Data Sheets/ drawings associated with MEES Material Requisition (MR). Price Book should be sufficiently comprehensive without gaps to avoid variations after award. Most common gaps are identified and discussed in detail in the paper. It is highly recommended to select MEES during FEED stage (prior to bidding stage) in order to take advantages in terms of project schedule, change management and overall cost optimization. MEES concept, if managed with recommendations in this paper, can benefit all stakeholders.

The proliferation of new codes & standards for power generation equipment procurement, and their increased frequency of revision, contributes to an atmosphere of increasingly rapid change in global trade considerations. This dynamic environment has amplified intensely with each year, to an extent that the life cycle of a given standard is in many instances appreciably less than the delivery cycles of heavy machinery. Other issues are created by the slower pace of harmonization of codes & standards in the European Union (EU), US and elsewhere. These codes & standards cover requirements that include emissions, acoustics, and safety that exert pronounced effects on the design, manufacture, and integration of power plant components. Conformity assessment partnering and the importance of other expert interpretation services are a key component to successfully meeting evolving compliance requirements. Delivering Customer Fulfillment for the Order to Remittance (OTR) phase of a project must be circled back to the Inquiry to Order (ITO) front end of the business cycle for new proposals. Another interesting arena is the relationship of advanced prime mover design balanced with the need for standardization to meet these regulatory challenges in the face of high production volume. The typical power generation project cycle, measured in terms of years, coupled with the present high demand worldwide results in orders for equipment that in many cases can’t foresee regulatory requirements 2 to 3 years into the future. Examples include projects in the EU where the Pressure Equipment Directive (PED) and Atmospheres Explosive (ATEX) Directive have mandatory compliance dates of May 2002 and June 2003 respectively. Electric power generation Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and their suppliers must plan for and price into contracts compliance with these laws years before the equipment is built and shipped. This is further complicated by the interpretation of specific requirements and the definition of the OEM conformity assessment strategy. To rectify this situation, it is recommended that steps be initiated to accelerate the worldwide harmonization of technical standards. In addition, consideration for the delivery cycles and commissioning of new power plants must be included in the regulatory process and in setting the dates for mandatory compliance with regional law.

In the field of Power Generation, Operators — Plant Owners, Utilities, IPPs … — have had to face severe constraints linked not only with price of electricity and cost of fuel, but also with more and more demanding environmental constraints. It appears that the next atmospheric emission coming under scrutiny is CO2. Some small scale laboratory size experiments and pilot scale tests demonstrating the ability to capture CO2 before it reaches the atmosphere have already been conducted, and some industrial scale demonstrators are already at the permitting stage and will soon reach construction. In order to anticipate the needs of Performance Tests within this coming market, ASME decided to form a new committee in order to prepare and deliver ASME Performance Test Code – PTC 48 “Overall Plant Performance with Carbon Capture” test code. This new code may be seen as an evolution of ASME PTC 46 “Performance Test Code on Overall Plant Performance” 1996 (currently under revision), which goes beyond the sole verification of components to provide guidelines for testing a full Plant. Capturing CO2 from fuel–fired power plants will have a significant impact on net capacity and net heat rate of the plant. Such plants will, in addition to the Power Block and Steam Generator, also include systems not commonly included in non-CO2 capture power plants. The addition of an ASU (Air Separation Unit, for oxy-combustion with CO2 capture) and/or CPU (CO2 Purification Unit, for oxy-combustion or post-combustion CO2 capture) has made necessary the preparation of a dedicated test code based upon same guiding principle than PTC 46, i.e. treating the plant globally as a “Black Box”. This approach allows correction of output and efficiency at the plant interfaces, but at the exclusion of internal parameters. It is anticipated that the code can inform development of regulations that define the rules and obligations of Operators. Currently, the proposed PTC 48 aims at fossil fuel fired Steam-electric power plants using either post-combustion CO2 capture or oxy-combustion with CO2 capture technologies. Combined cycles and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycles — IGCCs — are not addressed.

The Brazilian Rail Regulatory Framework was reviewed in 2011 by the National In Land Transport Agency (ANTT), with the edition of a package of Regulatory Resolutions (Resolution nº. 3,694 - Regulation of General Rules for Shippers and Rail Companies, Resolution nº. 3,695 - Regulation of Trackage and Haulage Rights, and Resolution nº. 3,696 - Regulation for Stretch Production Targets and Safety Targets Procedure Agreements) with the basic objectives of: i) create incentives for rail interoperability, ii) promote intra sector competition and, hence, enhance rail role in the national transport sector, and iii) establish new funding sources for the rail sector, in order to support investments needed for increasing rail system capacity. These, together with other structural measures already adopted by ANTT, such as the regulation of investments made by rail concessionaires and the revision of rail price cap rates, complemented the package of rail regulatory measures. For the effective implementation of the principles set out in the mentioned rail regulatory framework review, however, it was necessary to develop a sort of tools to allow regulatory control and reduce asymmetric information within the actors of this important industry. Among these tools, it is highlighted the Rail Network Statement, established by Resolution ANTT nº. 3,695/2011, basically composed of a compilation of the existing rail network main operational and technical data, such as rail gauges, load capacities, operational speeds, clearances, location of locomotives and wagons repair facilities as well as fuel stations, including an inventory of traffic capacity, with a survey of available capacity in all sections of the national rail network. This dataset was intended to reduce asymmetric information between rail industry players - Regulatory Authority, Rail Carriers and Shippers, and, so, enhance the negotiation processes for interoperability operations and investments agreements. Rail Network Statement must be filed annually by Concessionaires, and after a critical analysis and data review by the regulatory agency, it is released on its website for public access to support rail interoperability planning and negotiation process. This work is supposed to present an overview of Brazilian Rail Network Statement structure, with a Case Study Analysis of 2013 Edition, the first issued, with a strong focus on rail capacity analysis, an essential requirement for rail interoperability.

Abstract This paper presents a quantitative approach, using disclosed annual revisions of proved reserves, to judge the reasonable certainty of the underlying proved reserves. We identified issues that affect proper categorization of annual reserves changes in a previous SPE publication (SPE 209695) and incorporated them in this paper to quantify the technical revisions of disclosed proved reserves (and their reasonable certainty) during the period 2010 to 2020. Both over- and under-stated certainty of reserves estimates can impact a company's relative valuation, asset impairment, internal depreciation, profit/loss, standardized measure, unit development costs, and other indicators based on proved reserves. We analyzed 141 companies and extracted annual proved reserves changes disclosed from 2010 to 2020 in their SEC 10-K and 20-F forms or from comment letters for total, developed, and undeveloped reserves (in barrels of oil equivalent). As described in SPE 209695, we excluded, when available, (1) the impact due to changes in commodity prices and (2) other factors that distort the estimated technical revisions. We present, with examples based on actual data, the importance of separately analyzing developed and undeveloped proved reserves and the key drivers of the significant differences in average annual revisions between them. If these drivers are not carefully considered, results will lead to incorrect conclusions. Of the 141 companies analyzed, only 70 provided disclosures for five or more consecutive years of revisions for their total and undeveloped reserves during the 2010 to 2020 period. Of these, only 31 (or 22% of the 141) also disclosed revisions due to price changes in their total and undeveloped reserves. Other non-technical revisions are also required to estimate the technical revisions and judge the reasonable certainty of the disclosed developed and undeveloped reserves. However, the number of companies providing sufficient information to estimate technical revisions decreased to only 27 (or 19% of the 141) when we also considered the issues raised in our previous publication. Results indicate that, for many companies that provide the information required for proper analysis, the certainty level of their disclosed developed and undeveloped proved reserves can be significantly different, and appears to be much lower than the reasonable certainty, or high degree of confidence, required for proved developed and undeveloped reserves quantities, pointing towards an apparent over-estimation of historically disclosed proved reserves for many companies. We also highlight the issues that may still affect the estimated technical revisions, which may limit the validity of any conclusions drawn using the disclosed information. Our analysis shows the dubious quality and lack of reliability and consistency of some proved reserves revisions disclosed and highlights the limited value of current practices in disclosures of revisions in annual proved reserves. We provide evidence that call for FASB and/or SEC to provide complementary guidance in critical areas that currently limit the value and reliability of revisions to proved reserves disclosed.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Radiation Protection Division is the portion of EPA (or the Agency) that develops environmental standards for radioactive waste disposal in the United States. One current issue of concern is the disposal of low activity radioactive waste (LAW), including wastes that would be produced by a radiological dispersal device (RDD), for which current disposal options may be either inconsistent with the hazard presented by the material or logistically problematic. Another major issue is related to the resurgence in uranium mining. Over the past several years, demand for uranium for nuclear power plant fuel has increased as has the price. The increase in price has made uranium mining potentially profitable in the US. EPA is reviewing its relevant regulations, developed primarily in the 1980s, for potential revisions. For example, in-situ leaching (also known as in-situ recovery) is now the technology of choice where applicable, yet our current environmental standards are focused on conventional uranium milling. EPA has two actions in process, one related to the Clean Air Act, the other related to revising the environmental standards that implement the Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act of 1978 (UMTRCA). Separately, but related, EPA has developed over the last several years uranium mining documents that address technologically enhanced natural occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) from abandoned uranium mines, and wastes generated by active uranium extraction facilities. Lastly, in 1977 EPA developed environmental standards that address nuclear energy, fuel fabrication, reprocessing, and other aspects of the uranium fuel cycle. In light of the increased interest in nuclear power and the potential implementation of advanced fuel cycle technologies, the Agency is now reviewing the standards to determine their continued applicability for the twenty-first century.

This study re-investigates the price discovery dynamics of selected stocks cross-listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX) during a bear trading phase from January 2008 to December 2011. A differing price discovery dynamic in a bear market versus a bull market may occur because of variations in investor sentiments and disparities in the role of the stock prices. Using intraday data, we employ the vector error correction mechanism, Hasbrouck’s (1995) information share and Grammig et al.’s (2005) conditional information share methods. Consistent with previous research, we find that price discovery takes place mostly on the home market for the Australian firms and for all but one of the New Zealand firms. However, not seen in existing studies, we show that the NZX has grown in importance for both the Australian and New Zealand firms. This suggests that the NZX is deviating from being a pure satellite market.

This study re-investigates the price discovery dynamics of selected stocks cross-listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX) during a bear trading phase from January 2008 to December 2011. A differing price discovery dynamic in a bear market versus a bull market may occur because of variations in investor sentiments and disparities in the role of the stock prices. Using intraday data, we employ the vector error correction mechanism, Hasbrouck’s (1995) information share and Grammig et al.’s (2005) conditional information share methods. Consistent with previous research, we find that price discovery takes place mostly on the home market for the Australian firms and for all but one of the New Zealand firms. However, not seen in existing studies, we show that the NZX has grown in importance for both the Australian and New Zealand firms. This suggests that the NZX is deviating from being a pure satellite market.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

This paper studies volatility spillovers in credit default swaps (CDS) between the corporate sectors and Latin American countries. Daily data from October 14, 2006, to August 23, 2021, are employed. Spillovers are computed both for the raw data and for filtered series which factor out the effect of global common factors on the various CDS series. Results indicate that most spillovers occur within groups that is, within the series of sovereign CDS contracts and the price contracts of CDS issued by global corporations. However, considerable spillovers are also registered between LAC sovereigns and corporations. Interesting differences are encountered between filtered and unfiltered data. Specifically, spillovers from countries to corporations are overestimated (by about 4.3 percentage points) and spillovers from corporations to sovereigns are underestimated (by about 5.8 percentage points) when unfiltered data are used. This result calls for a revision of results obtained from studies that do not consider the role played by global common factors in system spillovers. Like in most related studies, spillovers show considerable time variation, being larger during times of financial or economic distress. When looking at total system spillovers over time, those corresponding to unfiltered series are always larger than those corresponding to filtered series. The difference between the two time series is largest in times of distress, indicating that global factors play a major role in times of crisis. Similar conclusions are derived from network analysis.

Since 2016, Nigerians have experienced a stable fuel supply even if prices have continued to rise. This supply stability came to a sudden halt in January 2022, bringing back memories of long queues and harsh living conditions witnessed since 2007. To explore the implications of this change we revisit our study on demanding power and accountability in the Nigerian energy sector. The study conducted from 2019–21 as part of the Action for Empowerment and Accountability (A4EA) research programme found a significant lack of accountability in fuel subsidy management in Nigeria.

- The UK is less exposed to the direct effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than its European neighbours. However, the indirect and longer-term effects of the war on UK trade could still be significant. - Inflationary pressure worldwide will contribute to price rises in the UK, particularly for food and energy. The ongoing effects of both Brexit – which has caused cross-border supply frictions and worker shortages – and the COVID-19 pandemic – which led to pent-up domestic demand and further reduced the labour force – will only increase this upward pressure. - The war has prompted increased scrutiny of London’s role as a centre for kleptocratic wealth from Russia and elsewhere, and has lead the UK government to impose sanctions against Russian-linked individuals and companies. This could impact inward investment directly, through legal restrictions on business activities, or indirectly, by indicating that the UK is no longer open to trade with certain countries. - In the longer term, post-war Ukraine’s future status and trading relationship with the EU could affect the UK, as the process of defining Ukraine’s position with regard to the EU may encourage Brussels to revisit its relations with the UK or even to explore alternative models for other non-member countries on the EU’s periphery. - A renewed focus on European security could also encourage the UK and EU to improve trade, security and political ties. The need to enhance security closer to home may also cause the UK to rethink the ‘Indo-Pacific tilt’ outlined in the 2021 Integrated Review.

The convergence of a favorable macroeconomic environment and high prices of primary commodities between 2000 and 2011 contributed to the best performance of agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) since the 1980s, with steady growth of total factor productivity (TFP) and output per worker and a reduction in the use of input per worker. The end of the upward phase of the commodity cycle in 2011 together with less favorable external markets and a deterioration of the policy environment in several countries, motivates us to revisit the situation of agriculture in LAC in recent years to analyze how these changes have affected its performance. This study applies a framework that uses index numbers together with data envelopment analysis (DEA) to estimate levels of productivity and efficiency, incorporating technical change together with technical (TE) and environmental efficiency (EE) into the decomposition of TFP. The EE index adjusts the TFP measure for pollution, treating GHG emissions as a by-product of the desired crop or livestock outputs. TFP and efficiency of crop and livestock sub-sectors was calculated for 24 LAC countries from 2000 to 2016. Our results show that the period of fast agricultural growth in LAC, driven by technical change and resource reallocation, transformed agriculture in the region leaving it in a better position to cope with the more unfavorable regional macroeconomic environment and the less dynamic global markets observed after 2011.