Articles de revues : « Population projection, Italy »

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De Angelis, Roberta, Fulvia Valente, Luisa Frova, Riccardo Capocaccia, Andrea Micheli, Eqidio Chessa et Milena Sant. « Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence of Stomach Cancer in Italian Regions ». Tumori Journal 82, n^o 4 (juillet 1996) : 314–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/030089169608200404.

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The basic descriptive epidemiologic data on stomach cancer occurrence in Italian regions are presented and discussed. Incidence and prevalence were estimated from official mortality and survival data provided by four population-based Italian cancer registries. Age-adjusted mortality, incidence, and prevalence rates are presented by region for the year 1990. Time trends of incidence and their projection for the year 2000 are also presented by region and three broad age classes. Althrough the occurence of stomach cancer has been decreasing in Italy and most western countries over the last decades, a substantial slowing down of this decrease was evidenced in Italy, especially for women under 65 and for the regions of southern Italy. A marked tendency towards a reduction of geographic heterogeneity in stomach cancer occurrence was also shown. Such a phenomenon is consistent with the observed changes of dietary habits in Italian regions. The regions of Umbria and The Marches seem to emerge as new areas at relatively high risk of stomach cancer incidence and mortality. About 45,000 prevalent cases were estimated in Italy by 1990, half of which have been diagnosed before 1984.

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Mehta, Jyotsna, Adeline Abbe, Peter C. Trask, Frank Neumann et Alaa Hamed. « Epidemiology Projection Trends for Hodgkin Lymphoma Patients in the U.S. and Europe ». Blood 120, n^o 21 (16 novembre 2012) : 4782. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood.v120.21.4782.4782.

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Abstract Abstract 4782 Background: Hodgkin lymphoma represents 11.7% of all types of lymphoma diagnosed in 2011. (Leukemia and Lymphoma Society) In 2012, an estimated 9,060 of new HL cases and 1,190 deaths will occur in North America and mostly in either young adults between 15 and 30 years of age, or after the age of 45. (American Cancer Society) The five-year relative survival rate for all patients with HL is 86.3% from 2001 to 2007 and 92.8% for patients less than 45 years at diagnosis. (SEER Review) Initial treatment of HL depends on the stage of the disease at diagnosis. Chemotherapy with or without radiation therapy is the most common treatment approach for HL patients. Stem cell transplantation and chemotherapy are the treatment options for patients with relapse disease. There is lack of published data on the distribution of patients across lines of therapy as well as percentage of relapsed and refractory patients. Understanding the distribution of patients across lines of therapy is critical to identify the unmet need and to help tailor future therapies. Methods: Epidemiological data was obtained for US and EU using the 'epic oncology' 2012 database (Epiphany Partners Inc.). The database includes line of therapy estimations using an advanced patient flow model combining survival by subset and course of treatment, response rates and outcomes, and treatment data from US and EU cancer registries coupled with primary research with a representative sample of physicians and secondary therapeutic reviews. We analyzed projection estimates up to 2020 across US and EU5 countries by line of therapy with specific attention to relapsed/refractory patients. These projection estimates are based on the current treatment options and does not account for introduction of future therapies. Refractory patients are defined as those who do not respond (do not go into remission) following therapy. Relapsed Patients are defined as those who have responded to therapy (enter remission) but re-enter the treatment population at a later stage due to progression of their cancer, recurrence of diagnostic markers, or symptomatology. Results: Projection estimates from 2010 to 2020 by line of therapy varied by country. Among EU countries, the highest number of treated HL patients was in France, followed by Italy and Spain. By 2020, the percentage of patients that are either relapsed or refractory to first, second and third line of therapy will increase by about 25% in US and by about 15% in EU. Regional variation observed across Europe are as follows: an increase by 38% in Spain, 25% in France, 12% in UK and 6% in Italy, while Germany will show a decline of 2%, this is due to a continuous decline in incidence rates since the early 1990s. Drug treated Hodgkin lymphoma population by line of therapy*: Conclusions: Due to the highly chemosensitive nature of the malignancy, only about 25% of Hodgkin lymphoma patients progress to a second line therapy and 30% of those move into third line. Smaller sample sizes, variation in growth rate among US and EU countries, and a bimodal incidence curve could cause differences in projection trends. The creation of a Hodgkin's disease based registry can help in validating emerging trends in therapy through providing up to date global projection estimates across line of therapy. Our results provide a global understanding of the HL patient population distribution across lines of therapy and are critical to identify the unmet need and guide future therapies in HL patients. Disclosures: Mehta: Sanofi: Employment. Abbe:Sanofi: Employment, Equity Ownership. Trask:Sanofi: Employment. Neumann:Sanofi-aventis: Employment. Hamed:Sanofi: Employment.

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Galloway, Patrick R. « A reconstruction of the population of North Italy from 1650 to 1881 using annual inverse projection with comparisons to England, France, and Sweden ». European Journal of Population 10, n^o 3 (septembre 1994) : 223–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf01265303.

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Gazzola, Michele, et Torsten Templin. « Language Competition and Language Shift in Friuli-Venezia Giulia : Projection and Trajectory for the Number of Friulian Speakers to 2050 ». Sustainability 14, n^o 6 (11 mars 2022) : 3319. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14063319.

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This article analyses how the number of speakers of the Friulian language changes over time in the territory where this language is traditionally spoken, that is, the provinces of Udine, Pordenone, and Gorizia, located in the north-east of Italy in the autonomous region of Friuli-Venezia Giulia. The aim of this research is twofold. First, it illustrates how the number of speakers of Friulian evolved over the past 40 years. To this end, we provide an overview of the findings of empirical studies on the Friulian language from 1977, 1998, and 2014. We complement these findings with population figures, birth and death rates, as well as data on migration and language transmission in order to provide a better understanding of the current situation in the three provinces. Second, these data are used to set up a mathematical language dynamic (or language competition) model. With the help of this empirically informed model, we derive projections for the future of the Friulian language in the three provinces. The results show that the number of Friulian speakers will decrease from 600,000 in 2014 to about 530,000 in 2050 (−11%), and that the number of regular Friulian speakers will decreases from 420,000 to 320,000 (−23%). By 2050, about 30% of the population will speak Friulian regularly and about 50% will speak Friulian regularly or occasionally. Only in the province of Udine will Friulian speakers still be in a clear majority. The analysis suggests that a stronger commitment to language policy protecting and promoting Friulian is needed in order to counteract these trends.

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Trask, Peter C., Jyotsna Mehta, Adeline Abbe et Rodrigo RuizSoto. « Epidemiology Projection Trends for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL) and Its Subtypes in the United States (US) and Europe (EU) ». Blood 120, n^o 21 (16 novembre 2012) : 5074. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood.v120.21.5074.5074.

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Abstract Abstract 5074 Background NHL is the 10th most common cancer worldwide, and a major cause of cancer-related deaths despite major advances in therapy (GLOBOCAN 2008). It encompasses a heterogeneous group of hematological malignancies originating in lymphoid tissue, mainly B lymphocytes (B-cell NHL) with an overall 5-year survival of 50–60%. There is lack of published data on the distribution of patients across lines of therapy and by subtype. Method Epidemiological data was obtained for US and EU using the 'epic oncology' 2012 database (Epiphany Partners Inc.). The database includes line of therapy estimations using an advanced patient flow model combining survival by subset and course of treatment, response rates and outcomes, and treatment data from U. S. and EU cancer registries coupled with primary research with a representative sample of physicians and secondary therapeutic reviews. We analyzed projection estimates up to 2020 across US and EU5 countries by subtype and line of therapy with specific attention to relapsed/refractory patients. Refractory patients are those who do not respond (do not go into remission) following therapy. Relapsed patients are defined as those who have responded to therapy (enter remission) who then re-enter the treatment population due to progression of their cancer, recurrence of diagnostic markers, or symptomatology. Result Projection estimates from 2010 to 2020 by line of therapy varied by country. Among EU countries the highest number of treated patients was in Italy followed by Germany and UK. By 2020, the percentage of patients that will have relapsed and/or be refractory to all lines of therapy will increase by about 35% in US and 11% in EU with regional variation observed among France (18%), Italy (15. 2%), Spain (3%), and UK (18%). In both the US and EU, about 30% of patients relapse and 20% are refractory after 1st line treatment. In 2nd as well as 3rd line, about 35% relapse or are refractory after treatment in the respective lines. In the US, the percent increase from 2010 to 2020 by line of therapy (1st, 2nd, 3rd) is greatest for MCL patients (55, 58, 59%) followed by FL (40, 49, 41%) and DLBCL (28, 33, and 36%). Epidemiology projection trends for US and EU by line of therapy and sub type Conclusion Due to the indolent or aggressive nature of NHL, the proportion of patients who will progress from 1st line to 2nd line therapy varies between 35% in US and 29% in EU based on current treatment options. This, along with the high percentage of relapsed and refractory patients in 2nd or higher lines argues for continued efforts to be made for the development of more efficacious treatments for NHL. The observed three fold difference between US and EU increase could be due to an increased incidence in recent historical years or an association between one or more of the risk factors, such as hepatitis C, which is more common in US or autoimmune disorders such as HIV. Real world data and disease based registries can help in validating emerging trends in therapy through providing up to date global projection estimates across line of therapy. Disclosures: Trask: Sanofi: Employment. Mehta:Sanofi: Employment. Abbe:Sanofi: Employment, Equity Ownership. RuizSoto:Sanofi: Employment.

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Focardi, Stefano, Barbara Franzetti et Francesca Ronchi. « Nocturnal distance sampling of a Mediterranean population of fallow deer is consistent with population projections ». Wildlife Research 40, n^o 6 (2013) : 437. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wr12218.

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Context Precise and accurate methods are essential to assess wildlife populations for sound management. We surveyed a managed population of fallow deer (Dama dama) in a Mediterranean environment in Italy, where this non-native ungulate has a negative impact on biodiversity. Aims We compare nocturnal distance-sampling (deer are detected by thermal imagery at night) population estimates with demographic projections of the same population. Methods We estimated natural survival in fawns (0.86), yearlings (0.83), adult males (0.70) and adult females (0.90) using capture–mark–recapture. By integrating survival estimates with population structure, reproductive traits and harvest data, we performed demographic projections. We performed nocturnal distance sampling on foot by using a thermal imagery once a year (in autumn) from 2001 to 2005. We walked 75–77 km (71 transects) per each survey. Key results We showed that our survey design met distance-sampling assumptions. Distance sampling and demographic projections yielded similar and precise (12.6% < CV <24.1%) population estimates, showing a decreasing (–164.64 deer year–1) population trend from 2755 deer in 2001 to 1877 in 2005. Conclusions We showed that nocturnal distance sampling is useful to monitor wild deer populations in forests effectively and that it represents a cost-effective tool to develop sounded management policy for this non-native species. We also provided, for the first time, a comprehensive stochastic population model for fallow deer in a Mediterranean environment. Using these population estimates, managers could reduce fallow deer population size to a level compatible with the conservation of the endangered Italian roe deer and improve forest regeneration. Implications Nocturnal distance sampling can be used to assess ungulate population living in dense forested habitats effectively and efficiently.

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Terra Abrami, Valerio. « Aging and social expenditures in Italy : Some issues associated with population projections ». Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 7, n^o 4 (1 avril 1991) : 221–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/sju-1990-7401.

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Sacco, Giuseppina, et Pietro Sacco. « The Valency Of The Natural And Social Components As Determinants Of A Population’s Future Development ». European Scientific Journal, ESJ 12, n^o 8 (30 mars 2016) : 284. http://dx.doi.org/10.19044/esj.2016.v12n8p284.

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The relation which ties the sociodemographic phenomena to the reference population of a given territory, is the representative essence of every social organism. Hence, there is the statistical need to get as many data as possible, as they become essential when you must make a decision that will influence the future choices of any human aggregation. The goal of the present contribution is to make population projections of the city of Bari (South Italy), studied by sex and age, aimed at knowing the future social effects through the analysis of the natural components (fecundity, mortality) and the social ones (migrations) of the studied population.

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Di Carlo, Antonio, Leonardo Bellino, Domenico Consoli, Fabio Mori, Augusto Zaninelli, Marzia Baldereschi, Alessandro Cattarinussi et al. « Prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the Italian elderly population and projections from 2020 to 2060 for Italy and the European Union : the FAI Project ». EP Europace 21, n^o 10 (6 juin 2019) : 1468–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/europace/euz141.

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Abstract Aims To estimate prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a representative sample of the Italian elderly population, projecting figures for Italy and the European Union. Methods and results A cross-sectional examination of all subjects aged 65+ years from three general practices in Northern, Central, and Southern Italy started in 2016. Participants were administered a systematic and an opportunistic screening, followed by clinical and electrocardiogram confirmation. The study sample included 6016 subjects. Excluding 235 non-eligible, among the remaining 5781 participation was 78.3%, which left 4528 participants (mean age 74.5 ± 6.8 years, 47.2% men). Prevalence of AF was 7.3% [95% confidence intervals (CI) 6.6–8.1], higher in men and with advancing age (6.6% from systematic plus 0.7% from opportunistic screening). Using prevalence figures, Italian elderly having AF in 2016 were estimated at ∼1 081 000 (95% CI 786 000–1 482 000). Considering stable prevalence, this number will increase by 75% to ∼1 892 000 in 2060 (95% CI 1 378 000–2 579 000). European Union elderly having AF in 2016 were estimated at ∼7 617 000 (95% CI 5 530 000–10 460 000), increasing by 89% to ∼14 401 000 in 2060 (95% CI 10 489 000–19 647 000). In 2016, subjects aged 80+ years represented 53.5% of cases in Italy and 51.2% in the European Union; in 2060, 69.6% and 65.2%, respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicate a high burden of AF in coming decades, especially among the oldest-old, who carry the higher AF-related risk of stroke and medical complications.

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Wang, Tianbing, Yanqiu Wu, Johnson Yiu-Nam Lau, Yingqi Yu, Liyu Liu, Jing Li, Kang Zhang, Weiwei Tong et Baoguo Jiang. « A four-compartment model for the COVID-19 infection—implications on infection kinetics, control measures, and lockdown exit strategies ». Precision Clinical Medicine 3, n^o 2 (28 mai 2020) : 104–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pcmedi/pbaa018.

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Abstract Objective To analyse the impact and repercussions of the surge in healthcare demand in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, assess the potential effectiveness of various infection/disease control measures, and make projections on the best approach to exit from the current lockdown. Design A four-compartment model was constructed for SARS-CoV-2 infection based on the Wuhan data and validated with data collected in Italy, the UK, and the US. The model captures the effectiveness of various disease suppression measures in three modifiable factors: (a) the per capita contact rate (β) that can be lowered by means of social distancing, (b) infection probability upon contacting infectious individuals that can be lowered by wearing facemasks, personal hygiene, etc., and (c) the population of infectious individuals in contact with the susceptible population, which can be lowered by quarantine. The model was used to make projections on the best approach to exit from the current lockdown. Results The model was applied to evaluate the epidemiological data and hospital burden in Italy, the UK, and the US. The control measures were identified as the key drivers for the observed epidemiological data through sensitivity analyses. Analysing the different lockdown exit strategies showed that a lockdown exit strategy with a combination of social separation/general facemask use may work, but this needs to be supported by intense monitoring which would allow re-introduction/tightening of the control measures if the number of new infected subjects increases again. Conclusions and relevance Governments should act early in a swift and decisive manner for containment policies. Any lockdown exit will need to be monitored closely, with regards to the potential of lockdown reimplementation. This mathematical model provides a framework for major pandemics in the future.

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Klupt, M. « Centre-Periphery Relations in Europe : Demographic Aspect ». World Economy and International Relations, n^o 2 (2015) : 58–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2015-2-58-67.

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The paper deals with the impact of centre-periphery relations on the demographic change in Europe in the 21st century. The reasons why the projections presented by Statistics Netherlands and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute in 1999 underestimated the future population growth in France, Italy, Spain and UK are analyzed. Current statistics and UN population projections (2012 revision) demonstrate that the idea of the total depopulation coming in Europe, commonly held there over the 20th century, is out of date. In fact, depopulation is far from being total; it is common only in peripheral countries of Europe, not in semi-peripheral and central ones (Germany is an exception). This conclusion is corroborated by the close positive correlation (r=0.754) between per capita GNI and the rate of population increase in 34 European countries between 2000 and 2012. The alarmist perspective of ageing is criticized. It is argued that ageing is often unreasonably blamed for negative effects which, in fact, are caused by other faults of socioeconomic system. So, the recent number of unemployed in Spain (5.7 millions) is four times more than the expected decrease in the number of people aged 20 to 64 between 2010 and 2030 (1.4 millions). The prospective institutional and structural consequences of the post-crisis shifting of immigration flows from Spain to Germany are considered. Given this shifting, the further expansion of the peripheral and semi-peripheral enclaves in German economy seems to be verisimilar. Nevertheless, the centripetal migration maintains, like before, the centre-peripheral differences in Europe. The centre concentrates knowledge-intensive services and attracts the most qualified migrants; semi-periphery receives the less qualified ones; the periphery is the source of labour force for both the centre and the semi-periphery.

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Кашницкий, Илья Савельевич, et Светлана Сергеевна Бирюкова. « Демографический дайджест ». Демографическое обозрение 3, n^o 4 (22 février 2017) : 171–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v3i4.3210.

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Parr N., J. Li, L. Tickle. A cost of living longer: projections of the effects of prospective mortality improvement on economic support ratios for 14 advanced economies (NCD-RisC), N. R. F. C. A century of trends in adult human height Pal I., J. Waldfogel. The family gap in pay: new evidence for 1967 to 2013 Jakobsson N., A. Kotsadam. Does marriage affect men’s labor market outcomes? A European perspective Gershoff E.T., A. Grogan-Kaylor. Spanking and child outcomes: old controversies and new meta-analyses (NCD-RisC), N.R.F.C. Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants Fenge R., B. Scheubel. Pensions and fertility: back to the roots Breschi M., G. Ruiu. Superstitions, religiosity and secularization: an analysis of the periodic oscillations of weddings in Italy

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Culotta, Fabrizio. « Life Expectancy Heterogeneity and Pension Fairness : An Italian North-South Divide ». Risks 9, n^o 3 (18 mars 2021) : 57. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks9030057.

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This work documents a persistent life expectancy heterogeneity by gender and geography in Italy during the period 1995–2019. Based on deviations of life expectancy at age 65, it quantifies the implicit tax/subsidy mechanism triggered when pensions annuities are computed by adopting the same value of longevity for the whole population. The intensity of this transfer mechanism is then measured and projected over the decade 2020–2030. Results show that females are subsidized while males are taxed by around 10%. Differences by geography persist along the Italian territory. Since 1995 the macroarea of Mezzogiorno has been taxed by 2%, Center and North-West macroareas are being subsidized by around 1%, whereas North-East by 2%. The intensity of the mechanism, despite decreases over time, is higher among females since the year 2000. From a geographical perspective, the macroarea of Mezzogiorno shows the lowest intensity, but also the lowest reduction as compared to other macroareas. Projections indicate that the North-South divide in this implicit transfer mechanism will persist over the next decade.

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Tettamanti, Mauro, et Gabriella Marcon. « Cohort profile : ‘Centenari a Trieste’ (CaT), a study of the health status of centenarians in a small defined area of Italy ». BMJ Open 8, n^o 2 (février 2018) : e019250. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-019250.

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PurposeCentenarians, a segment of the population which some 50 years ago comprised only a few individuals, now count thousands in many countries, and demographic projections forecast that this growth will continue. The study of this new population will give us new information on extreme longevity and help prepare for their health and social needs. The aim of the Centenari a Trieste study is to describe the health and health service use by centenarians, with specific focus on cognitive status.ParticipantsThis is a population-based study of centenarians living in the province of Trieste (Italy), a small area with a high prevalence of centenarians and a close network of health and social services, which makes it possible to conduct a study. Consenting individuals were visited by a clinician, tested by neuropsychologists and also gave a sample of their blood. Administrative data were retrieved as well.Findings to dateOf the 163 centenarians, 70 could be contacted and participated in the study. The main reasons for non-participation were impossibility to contact the subject (70) and death (20). Centenarians were mostly women (90%), tended to live in a nursing home (60%) and were generally severely functionally impaired (Barthel Index <50: 61%). Data from the administrative database showed that about one out of five needed hospitalisation in the preceding year and more than three out of four had at least one drug prescription.Future plansIn 2017, we started a new wave of the study enrolling people who had just become centenarian and reassessing subjects already seen; we hope to extend this recruitment in the next years. Subjects are now examined also by cardiologists and dental specialists. We are collecting further different biological specimens to investigate new hypotheses on the cognitive function of the centenarians.

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Iannazzo, Sergio, Lorenzo Pradelli et Orietta Zaniolo. « Pharmacoeconomic analysis of valsartan for the treatment of chronic congestive heart failure in Italy ». Farmeconomia. Health economics and therapeutic pathways 9, n^o 3 (15 septembre 2008) : 125–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.7175/fe.v9i3.225.

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Objective: to evaluate pharmacoeconomic implications of the use of valsartan, an angiotensin II antagonist in addition to standard therapy for the treatment of chronic congestive heart failure (CHF). Methods: the study was conducted performing cost-utility and budget impact (B.I.) analyses by means of a cohort simulation based on a probabilistic Markov model and projecting 23-months follow-up results in the Val-HeFT trial study over a 10-years time horizon. The model included four states (class NYHA I, II and III and death), and had a cycle of 1 year. Two probabilistic simulations (varying first patients parameters and after model parameters) were performed using WinBUGS, a software for bayesian analysis. The distributions of patients parameters (sex, age, use of ACE inhibitors) corresponding to Val-HeFT inclusion criteria in the simulated population were derived from the Italian CHF patients population. Individual mortality was derived from general mortality by adjusting with a NYHA state-specific HR, and the probability of changing NYHA class from Val-HeFT. Costs were calculated in the perspective of the Italian NHS and account for drugs and CHF hospitalizations. Quality of life weights were obtained by elaborating published HRQoL data of CHF patients. A 3.5% annual discount rate was applied; probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed on each parameter using original-source 95% CI, or a ±10% range where it was unavailable. Results: in the 10 years horizon, patients were estimated to live an average of 4.4 years or 3.2 QALYs, with slight increases in the valsartan group. In this group, hospitalizations are predicted to be sensitively reduced and overall costs decreased by about 500 €/pz. In subgroup analysis, valsartan loses dominance in NYHAII and ACE-using patients, for which ICURs are 17,330 and 27,000 €/QALY, respectively. B.I. analysis predicts a saving of about 172 millions €. Conclusions: valsartan in addition to standard therapy is predicted to be a cost/effective strategy for Italian patients with mild-to-severe CHF and cost-saving from the perspective of the NHS.

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DIMITRIADIS, CHARALAMPOS, MARIKA GALANIDI, ARGYRO ZENETOS, MARIA CORSINI-FOKA, IOANNIS GIOVOS, PARASKEVI K. KARACHLE, IVONI FOURNARI – KONSTANTINIDOY et al. « Updating the occurrences of Pterois miles in the Mediterranean Sea, with considerations on thermal boundaries and future range expansion ». Mediterranean Marine Science 21, n^o 1 (28 mars 2020) : 62. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/mms.21845.

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Here we present an update of the Mediterranean distribution of the lionfish Pterois miles, based on a comprehensive list of geo-referenced occurrences up to October 2019. New data were provided by multiple reporting tools and citizen science initiatives. Our findings suggest that well established populations of P. miles exist in the Levantine Sea, in the southern and central Aegean Sea, as well as in the Greek Ionian Sea, whilst so far, only a few individuals were reported from Tunisia and southern Sicily (Italy). We also argue about the future expansion of this invasive species in the Mediterranean region and about the role of climate change by projecting the limits of winter isotherms under different climate change scenarios. Under the assumption that the mean winter sea surface temperature is the main limiting factor of the range expansion of the species (i.e. 15.3oC winter isotherm), P. miles could substantially expand in the Mediterranean Sea, except the coolest northernmost regions, under future climatic scenarios. These results were discussed in comparison to published outcomes of species distribution modelling.

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Saraiva, Miguel, Peter Roebeling, Silvia Sousa, Carla Teotónio, Anna Palla et Ilaria Gnecco. « Dimensions of shrinkage : Evaluating the socio-economic consequences of population decline in two medium-sized cities in Europe, using the SULD decision support tool ». Environment and Planning B : Urban Analytics and City Science 44, n^o 6 (20 juillet 2016) : 1122–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0265813516659071.

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All over Europe, it is a known fact that cities are shrinking. One of the main causes is population decline, but the consequent reduction of urban area is neither immediate nor easy to foresee spatially. Questions arise such as where do cities start to ‘shrink’ first? What are the most fragile areas that face the risk of becoming derelict? What are the most vulnerable social groups? And how does this affect real estate values across the city? Existing models for projecting the effects of shrinkage have been criticized for lacking spatial-explicitness, being excessively data-dependent, and failing to incorporate various socio-economic, urban and environmental aspects in the assessment of attractiveness of urban areas and of decisions by households. In this article, we attempt to overcome this criticism by applying the spatially-explicit Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development decision support tool (SULD), based on hedonic pricing theory, in two cities in southern Europe (Aveiro, Portugal and Imperia, Italy). SULD is used to project, assess and compare changes in land-use, household type distribution, real estate values and household densities, in three different scenarios of population decline (−5%, −10% and −15%). Results quantify the amount of contraction of urban area, housing quantity and living space; highlight the most problematic areas; and uncover low income households as the least affected, whereas the relocation of high income households may cause gentrification of medium income households in some areas of the historical city centre.

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Busca, Francesco, et Roberto Revelli. « Green Areas and Climate Change Adaptation in a Urban Environment : The Case Study of “Le Vallere” Park (Turin, Italy) ». Sustainability 14, n^o 13 (1 juillet 2022) : 8091. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14138091.

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The balance governing the exploitation of resources on Earth is nowadays undermined by different accelerating processes, as population growth, pollution increase and, above all, climate change: the consequences on human well-being and on natural ecosystems health is incontrovertible. Hence, there is the need to undertake mitigation actions aimed at slowing down the uncontrolled development of negative effects. Within this work, the goal is to analyze the role of urban green infrastructures in the complex panorama of the climate change fight, through the ability to restore ecological functions. A quantification study of the Ecosystem Services (ES) offered by “Le Vallere” Park, a green area of about 340 thousand square meters in the Turin metropolitan area (North Italy), was conducted. The project combines the complex ES theme of urban adaptation to climate change, through i-Tree, a software suite born to evaluate the benefits provided by vegetation. Particularly, through i-Tree Hydro, the quantity and quality of runoff rainwater are analyzed considering the comparison between different scenarios: we analyze a present case (2019) and future cases (2071–2100), with reference to climate projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario (considering climate change mitigation actions) and RCP 8.5 scenario (no actions) of the COSMO-CLM regional climate model, produced by the Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC). The discussion focuses on comparing the results obtained in the different scenarios, deepening the role of a medium-sized urban green infrastructure on the surrounding environment as the climate and vegetative conditions vary.

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Di Brino, Eugenio, Michele Basile, Filippo Rumi, Giovanna Elisa Calabrò et Americo Cicchetti. « PP153 The Economic And Fiscal Impact Of Public Health Programs For Diabetic Patients In Italy ». International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 38, S1 (décembre 2022) : S90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266462322002653.

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IntroductionTechnological innovations in the health sector have economic implications that go beyond their effects on health expenditure, expanding into other areas of the state budget (e.g., the social security system). Furthermore, innovation can affect the production of wealth by workers and companies, which in turn affects tax revenues. In addition, the presence of chronic diseases tends to reduce the propensity to consume and changes the allocation of consumption between the different sectors. Allocative decisions in the health system are rarely supported by an analysis that combines the health effects of innovations and their consequences in the economic system.MethodsThe objective of this study was to estimate the value of management programs for patients suffering from type 2 diabetes mellitus that involved different levels of use of innovative technologies and drugs. A tax impact assessment methodology was adopted in the context of chronic conditions to analyze the effect of adopting alternative management models for patients with diabetes on the broader economic system.ResultsAssuming a policy that reduces annual complications by 0.42 percent, there was an increase in tax revenue (cumulative value) of approximately EUR 28,175 and a reduction in productivity losses (cumulative value) of EUR 4,049,890. Projecting the impact on the age trend of the population up to 65 years of age with these estimates, it is possible to have an increase in tax revenue (cumulative value) equal to approximately EUR 7,050,598 and a reduction in productivity losses (cumulative value) equal to EUR 140,235,923.ConclusionsIn light of this work, providing remote patient support (telemedicine) and expanding the provision of innovative oral antidiabetic drugs to family physicians could improve care for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. This study provides decision makers with an immediately usable model to broaden the information base for planning and regulatory choices. In addition, it supports the use of economic evaluations that calculate the entire value of a technological innovation or health program.

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Watt, Michael S., Darren J. Kriticos, Shona L. Lamoureaux et Graeme W. Bourdôt. « Climate Change and the Potential Global Distribution of Serrated Tussock (Nassella trichotoma) ». Weed Science 59, n^o 4 (décembre 2011) : 538–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1614/ws-d-11-00032.1.

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We used the process-oriented niche model CLIMEX to estimate the potential global distribution of serrated tussock under projected future climates. Serrated tussock is a drought-tolerant, wind- and human-dispersed grass of South American origin that has invaded pastures in Australia, Europe, New Zealand, and South Africa. The likely effect of climate change on its potential global distribution was assessed by applying six climate-change scenarios to a previously developed model. The projections of climatic suitability under the current climate revealed considerable scope for spread, with the most suitable areas occurring adjacent to existing naturalized populations in Australia, New Zealand, and Western Europe. Under future climates, projected to the 2080s, the land area suitable for serrated tussock contracts globally between 20 and 27%. Changes in projected potential area under the six scenarios were very similar in all geographical regions apart from North America and New Zealand, where the projections range from little change or contraction under the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Centre for Climate Research (MIROC) global climate models (GCMs) to expansion under the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) GCM. Elsewhere, contractions occur in Australia, Asia, South America, and Africa under all six future climate scenarios. By contrast, for Europe, the area climatically suitable for serrated tussock increases under all six scenarios (average increase 47%) through expansions into eastern European countries that are currently unsuitable and through increases in the suitable area in England, Ireland, and Denmark. Since pastoralism is a dominant land use in these regions of Europe, a prudent biosecurity strategy would be to contain the nascent foci of serrated tussock in southern France, along the west coast of Italy, and in the United Kingdom. This strategy could consist of a set of policies to limit human-assisted dispersal of the species' seeds and to reduce wind-borne spread through cultural control of the plant.

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Gentili, Rodolfo, Roberto Ambrosini, Benno A. Augustinus, Sarah Caronni, Elisa Cardarelli, Chiara Montagnani, Heinz Müller-Schärer, Urs Schaffner et Sandra Citterio. « High Phenotypic Plasticity in a Prominent Plant Invader along Altitudinal and Temperature Gradients ». Plants 10, n^o 10 (9 octobre 2021) : 2144. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants10102144.

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Studies on plant growth and trait variation along environmental gradients can provide important information for identifying drivers of plant invasions and for deriving management strategies. We used seeds of the annual plant invader Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. (common ragweed) collected from an agricultural site in Northern Italy (226 m. a.s.l; Mean Annual Air Temperature: 12.9 °C; precipitations: 930 mm) to determine variation in growth trajectories and plant traits when grown along a 1000-m altitudinal gradient in Northern Italy, and under different temperature conditions in the growth chamber (from 14/18 °C to 26/30 °C, night/day), using a non-liner modeling approach. Under field conditions, traits related to plant height (maximum height, stem height, number of internodes) followed a three-parameter logistic curve. In contrast, leaf traits (lateral spread, number of leaves, leaf length and width) followed non-monotonic double-Richards curves that captured the decline patterns evident in the data. Plants grew faster, reaching a higher maximum plant height, and produced more biomass when grown at intermediate elevations. Under laboratory conditions, plants exhibited the same general growth trajectory of field conditions. However, leaf width did not show the recession after the maximum value shown by plants grown in the field, although the growth trajectories of some individuals, particularly those grown at 18 °C, showed a decline at late times. In addition, the plants grown at lower temperatures exhibited the highest value of biomass and preserved reproductive performances (e.g., amount of male inflorescence, pollen weight). From our findings, common ragweed exhibits a high phenotypic plasticity of vegetative and reproductive traits in response to different altitudes and temperature conditions. Under climate warming, this plasticity may facilitate the shift of the species towards higher elevation, but also the in situ resistance and (pre)adaptation of populations currently abundant at low elevations in the invasive European range. Such results may be also relevant for projecting the species management such as the impact by possible biocontrol agents.

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Amadio, Mattia, Arthur H. Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, Sepehr Marzi, Paolo Mazzoli, Jaroslav Mysiak et Stephen Roberts. « Cost–benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, n^o 1 (1 février 2022) : 265–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022.

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Abstract. The combined effect of global sea level rise and land subsidence phenomena poses a major threat to coastal settlements. Coastal flooding events are expected to grow in frequency and magnitude, increasing the potential economic losses and costs of adaptation. In Italy, a large share of the population and economic activities are located along the low-lying coastal plain of the North Adriatic coast, one of the most sensitive areas to relative sea level changes. Over the last half a century, this stretch of coast has experienced a significant rise in relative sea level, the main component of which was land subsidence; in the forthcoming decades, climate-induced sea level rise is expected to become the first driver of coastal inundation hazard. We propose an assessment of flood hazard and risk linked with extreme sea level scenarios, under both historical conditions and sea level rise projections in 2050 and 2100. We run a hydrodynamic inundation model on two pilot sites located along the North Adriatic coast of Emilia-Romagna: Rimini and Cesenatico. Here, we compare alternative extreme sea level scenarios accounting for the effect of planned and hypothetical seaside renovation projects against the historical baseline. We apply a flood damage model to estimate the potential economic damage linked to flood scenarios, and we calculate the change in expected annual damage according to changes in the relative sea level. Finally, damage reduction benefits are evaluated by means of cost–benefit analysis. Results suggest an overall profitability of the investigated projects over time, with increasing benefits due to increased probability of intense flooding in the near future.

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Hens, Luc, Nguyen An Thinh, Tran Hong Hanh, Ngo Sy Cuong, Tran Dinh Lan, Nguyen Van Thanh et Dang Thanh Le. « Sea-level rise and resilience in Vietnam and the Asia-Pacific : A synthesis ». VIETNAM JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES 40, n^o 2 (19 janvier 2018) : 127–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.15625/0866-7187/40/2/11107.

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Climate change induced sea-level rise (SLR) is on its increase globally. Regionally the lowlands of China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and islands of the Malaysian, Indonesian and Philippine archipelagos are among the world’s most threatened regions. Sea-level rise has major impacts on the ecosystems and society. It threatens coastal populations, economic activities, and fragile ecosystems as mangroves, coastal salt-marches and wetlands. This paper provides a summary of the current state of knowledge of sea level-rise and its effects on both human and natural ecosystems. The focus is on coastal urban areas and low lying deltas in South-East Asia and Vietnam, as one of the most threatened areas in the world. About 3 mm per year reflects the growing consensus on the average SLR worldwide. The trend speeds up during recent decades. The figures are subject to local, temporal and methodological variation. In Vietnam the average values of 3.3 mm per year during the 1993-2014 period are above the worldwide average. Although a basic conceptual understanding exists that the increasing global frequency of the strongest tropical cyclones is related with the increasing temperature and SLR, this relationship is insufficiently understood. Moreover the precise, complex environmental, economic, social, and health impacts are currently unclear. SLR, storms and changing precipitation patterns increase flood risks, in particular in urban areas. Part of the current scientific debate is on how urban agglomeration can be made more resilient to flood risks. Where originally mainly technical interventions dominated this discussion, it becomes increasingly clear that proactive special planning, flood defense, flood risk mitigation, flood preparation, and flood recovery are important, but costly instruments. Next to the main focus on SLR and its effects on resilience, the paper reviews main SLR associated impacts: Floods and inundation, salinization, shoreline change, and effects on mangroves and wetlands. The hazards of SLR related floods increase fastest in urban areas. This is related with both the increasing surface major cities are expected to occupy during the decades to come and the increasing coastal population. In particular Asia and its megacities in the southern part of the continent are increasingly at risk. The discussion points to complexity, inter-disciplinarity, and the related uncertainty, as core characteristics. An integrated combination of mitigation, adaptation and resilience measures is currently considered as the most indicated way to resist SLR today and in the near future.References Aerts J.C.J.H., Hassan A., Savenije H.H.G., Khan M.F., 2000. Using GIS tools and rapid assessment techniques for determining salt intrusion: Stream a river basin management instrument. 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Doi: 10.1007/s00254-007-0951-z. Nguyen Thang T.X., Woodroffe C.D., 2016. Assessing relative vulnerability to sea-level rise in the western part of the Mekong River delta. Sustainability Science, 11, 645-659. Doi: 10.1007/s11625-015-0336-2. Nicholls N.N., Hoozemans F.M.J., Marchand M., Analyzing flood risk and wetland losses due to the global sea-level rise: Regional and global analyses.Global Environmental Change, 9, S69-S87. Doi: 10.1016/s0959-3780(99)00019-9. Phan Minh Thu, 2006. Application of remote sensing and GIS tools for recognizing changes of mangrove forests in Ca Mau province. In Proceedings of the International Symposium on Geoinformatics for Spatial Infrastructure Development in Earth and Allied Sciences, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 9-11 November, 1-17. Reise K., 2017. Facing the third dimension in coastal flatlands.Global sea level rise and the need for coastal transformations. Gaia, 26, 89-93. Renaud F.G., Le Thi Thu Huong, Lindener C., Vo Thi Guong, Sebesvari Z., 2015. 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Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309, 1844-1846. Doi: 10.1126/science.1116448. Were K.O., Dick O.B., Singh B.R., 2013. Remotely sensing the spatial and temporal land cover changes in Eastern Mau forest reserve and Lake Nakuru drainage Basin, Kenya. Applied Geography, 41, 75-86. Williams G.A., Helmuth B., Russel B.D., Dong W.-Y., Thiyagarajan V., Seuront L., 2016. Meeting the climate change challenge: Pressing issues in southern China an SE Asian coastal ecosystems. Regional Studies in Marine Science, 8, 373-381. Doi: 10.1016/j.rsma.2016.07.002. Woodroffe C.D., Rogers K., McKee K.L., Lovdelock C.E., Mendelssohn I.A., Saintilan N., 2016. Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise. Annual Review of Marine Science, 8, 243-266. Doi: 10.1146/annurev-marine-122414-034025.

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Longo, Umile Giuseppe, Giuseppe Salvatore, Laura Risi Ambrogioni, Eleonora Cella, Vincenzo Candela, Arianna Carnevale, Emiliano Schena, Massimo Ciccozzi, Nicola Maffulli et Vincenzo Denaro. « Epidemiology of Achilles tendon surgery in Italy : a nationwide registry study, from 2001 through 2015 ». BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders 21, n^o 1 (17 octobre 2020). http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12891-020-03688-2.

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Abstract Background This study aims (1) to estimate the yearly number of Achilles tendon (AT) surgeries in Italy from 2001 to 2015 based on official hospitalization records; (2) to investigate the eventual presence of geographical variation in equity in access to AT surgery between three macroregions of Italy (North, Center and South); (3) to perform statistical projections of the number of AT procedure volumes and rates based on these data. Methods We analysed the National Hospital Discharge records (SDO) maintained at the Italian Ministry of Health for a 15-year period, from 2001 through 2015. These data are anonymous and include the patient’s age (evaluated in the class of age), sex, census region, the region of hospitalization, length of the hospitalization, public or private reimbursement and diagnosis. Results During the 15-year study period, 118,652 AT repair were performed in Italy, whose peak of incidence was in 2010. More than half of AT repairs was performed in the North of Italy (52.1%), while 27.2% was performed in the South of Italy and 20.6% Center of Italy. The projection model predicted a slight growth of 2.65% in 2025 in comparison with 2015. Conclusion The current study provides detailed information about the national population-weighted incidence of AT surgery, distribution and projection. The peak of average age was 35–45 year. The majority of AT procedures was performed in the North of Italy. The projection model predicts a slight growth of AT surgery by 2025. Furthermore, this 15-year nationwide registry study shows that the age of incidence of AT injuries shifted from 30 to 40 to 35–45 years compared to the available literature. The higher prevalence of AT surgery was found in men during the working age. Moreover, a low rate of procedures in pediatric and elder age classes was observed.

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Ginebri, Sergio, et Carlo Lallo. « Disaggregation of official demographic projections in sub-groups by education level : the neglected “composition effect” in the future path of life expectancy ». Genus 77, n^o 1 (8 février 2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s41118-020-00113-3.

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AbstractWe developed an innovative method to break down official population forecasts by educational level. The mortality rates of the high education group and low education group were projected using an iterative procedure, whose starting point was the life tables by education level for Italy, based on the year 2012. We provide a set of different scenarios on the convergence/divergence of the mortality differential between the high and low education groups. In each scenario, the demographic size and the life expectancy of the two sub-groups were projected annually over the period 2018–2065. We compared the life expectancy paths in the whole population and in the sub-groups. We found that in all of our projections, population life expectancy converges to the life expectancy of the high education group. We call this feature of our outcomes the “composition effect”, and we show how highly persistent it is, even in scenarios where the mortality differential between social groups is assumed to decrease over time. In a midway scenario, where the mortality differential is assumed to follow an intermediate path between complete disappearance in year 2065 and stability at the 2012 level, and in all the scenarios with a milder convergence hypothesis, our “composition effect” prevails over the effect of convergence for men and women. For instance, assuming stability in the mortality differential, we estimated a life expectancy increase at age 65 of 2.9 and 2.6 years for men, and 3.2 and 3.1 for women, in the low and high education groups, respectively, over the whole projection period. Over the same period, Italian official projections estimate an increase of 3.7 years in life expectancy at age 65 for the whole population. Our results have relevant implications for retirement and ageing policies, in particular for those European countries that have linked statutory retirement age to variations in population life expectancies. In all the scenarios where the composition effect is not offset by a strong convergence of mortality differentials, we show that the statutory retirement age increases faster than the group-specific life expectancies, and this finding implies that the expected time spent in retirement will shrink for the whole population. This potential future outcome seems to be an unintended consequence of the indexation rule.

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Trias-Llimós, Sergi, Anastasios Bardoutsos et Fanny Janssen. « Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in France Using a Novel Generalizable Age-Period-Cohort Projection Methodology ». Alcohol and Alcoholism, 21 octobre 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/alcalc/agaa107.

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Abstract Aim To forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015–2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change. Methods For the French national population aged 25–90 years (1979–2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change). Results Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6–14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1–23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7–1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2–2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline). Conclusion Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France’s levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents.

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Giulio, Perrotta. « Clinical evidence in the phenomenon of Alien Abduction ». Annals of Psychiatry and Treatment, 21 décembre 2021, 107–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.17352/apt.000037.

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Purpose: Starting from the classic definition of “alien abduction”, the present research, starting from the study published in 2020 on the proposed clinical classification of this particular phenomenon, is aimed at confirming the theoretical assumption of psychopathological origin. Methods: Clinical interview, based on narrative-anamnestic and documentary evidence and the basis of the Perrotta Human Emotions Model (PHEM) concerning their emotional and perceptual-reactive experience, and administration of the battery of psychometric tests published in international scientific journals by the author of this work: 1) Perrotta Integrative Clinical Interviews (PICI-2), to investigate functional and dysfunctional personality traits; 2) Perrotta Individual Sexual Matrix Questionnaire (PSM-Q), to investigate the individual sexual matrix; 3) Perrotta Affective Dependence Questionnaire (PAD-Q), to investigate the profiles of affective and relational dependence; 4) Perrotta Human Defense Mechanisms Questionnaire (PDM-Q), to investigate the defence mechanisms of the Ego. Results: Preliminary results from the interviews and the anamnestic form would suggest that the phenomenon of alien abductions has a greater tendency to occur in the female group, in the adult and mature group (and tends to diminish but not disappear with advancing age) and in the group geographically originating in central-northern Italy (due to lower religious influences but greater openness to the typical contents of ufological and mystery narratives). Moreover, the subsequent results would lead us to deduce with almost total certainty, concerning the selected sample, that the phenomenon of alien abductions has an absolute prevalence in the believing population concerning the existence of paranormal phenomena per se, even in the absence of objective and/or scientific evidence. It is a phenomenon that is almost completely linked (110/112, 98.2%) to a medium-low or not fully educated cultural level. Based on the PICI-2 it emerged that the primary emerging disorder is alternatively the delusional disorder, the dissociative disorder and the narcissistic disorder; followed, as secondary disorders, by the delusional disorder (if it is not considered as primary disorder), the schizoid disorder, the borderline disorder, the obsessive disorder and the psychopathic disorder. The analysis of functional traits also reported the marked dysfunctional tendency of the classes referring to self-control, sensitivity, Ego-Es comparison, emotionality, ego stability, security and relational functionality, confirming here too the marked dysfunctional tendency of the clinical population. According to the PSM-Q, almost 2/3 of the participants (73/112, 65.2%) present a dysfunctional tendency to sexual behaviour and a marked tendency to chronicle feelings of shame in avoidance behaviour or hyposexuality. Furthermore, 100% of the sample of the population surveyed report having suffered significant or serious psychological or physical abuse at a young age, or intra-parental relational imbalances, or in any case a sexual upbringing that was not open and lacking in free communication. According to the PDM-Q, 27.7% (31/112) are affected by affective dependency, with greater emphasis on types I (neurotic), VI (covert narcissist), V (borderline) and III (histrionic), in that order of descent. Finally, the PDM-Q reveals the widespread psychopathological tendency of the functional ego framework for the mechanisms of isolation, denial, regression, reactive formation, denial, projection, removal, withdrawal, instinct, repression and idealisation. Conclusion: This research confirms the psychopathological nature of the alien abduction phenomenon, which deserves to be treated using a psychotherapeutic approach (preferably cognitive-behavioural and/or strategic) and possibly also pharmacological in serious cases, depending on the symptoms manifested and the severity of the morbid condition.

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ARESU, MAURO, ANDREA ROTTA, ALBERTO FOZZI, ALFONSO CAMPUS, MARCO MUZZEDDU, DIONIGI SECCI, ILARIA FOZZI, DAVIDE DE ROSA et FIAMMETTA BERLINGUER. « Assessing the effects of different management scenarios on the conservation of small island vulture populations ». Bird Conservation International, 16 mars 2020, 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0959270920000040.

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Summary Although the population of Griffon Vulture Gyps fulvus is significantly increasing in Europe, in Italy the species is still on the Red List as ‘Critically Endangered’, with the last natural population persisting on the island of Sardinia. Several episodes of poisoning hampered the success of conservation actions implemented in the years 1987–1995. In 2005 there were estimated to be only 31–32 territorial pairs, with the population occupying the territories of Alghero and Bosa. We used a long-term dataset of reproductive records from the Sardinian Griffon Vulture populations to run a population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate the extinction risk using the Vortex simulation software. The model estimated the probability of extinction over the next five generations (estimated generation time: 11 years, simulation time used: 55 years) as 96.4% for the Alghero population, and near-zero for the Bosa population. We used sensitivity analyses to understand how uncertainty about parameter values affect model outcomes. Population projections were evaluated under different management scenarios tackling the main threats (poisoning and human disturbance) and implementing conservation actions (supplementary feeding and restocking). Our results showed that population size is a critical factor in affecting the projections of population dynamics of Griffon Vultures. Sensitivity analyses highlighted the importance of poisoning events to population persistence and showed that juvenile and adult mortality rates had a secondary impact on population viability. The only conservation measure effective in significantly increasing stochastic growth rates in the Alghero population, whose initial population was set at five individuals, was the complete removal of poisoning events. When targeting the Bosa population (initial population size 94 individuals), supplementary feeding, mitigation of the risk of poisoning episodes, restocking, and mitigation of human disturbance in the reproductive sites significantly increased stochastic growth rate. A cost-effectiveness analysis should be performed to prioritise interventions.

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Borghi, C., J. G. Wang, A. V. Rodionov, M. Rosas, I. S. Sohn, L. Alcocer, W. Valentine, D. Deroche-Chibedi, D. Granados et D. Croce. « Projecting the long-term benefits of single pill combination therapy for patients with hypertension in five countries ». European Heart Journal 41, Supplement_2 (1 novembre 2020). http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ehjci/ehaa946.2781.

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Abstract Background It is well established that single pill combination (SPC) therapies have the potential to improve patient adherence versus multi-pill regimens, thereby improving blood pressure control and clinical outcomes in populations with hypertension. Purpose To develop a microsimulation model, capturing different treatment pathways, to project the impact on clinical outcomes of using single pill combination therapies for the management of hypertension in five countries (Italy, Russia, China, South Korea and Mexico). Methods The model was designed to project health outcomes between 2020 and 2030 for populations with hypertension managed according to four different treatment pathways: current treatment practices [CTP], single drug with dosage titration first then sequential addition of other agents [start low and go slow, SLGS], free choice combination with multiple pills [FCC] and combination therapy in the form of a single pill [SPC]. Model inputs were derived from Global Burden of Disease 2017 dataset, including demographics, health status/risk factors, transition probabilities and treatment attributes/healthcare utilization, and the model incorporated real-world challenges to healthcare delivery such as access to care, SBP measurement error, adherence and therapeutic inertia. Simulated outcomes of mortality, incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD), stroke and ischemic heart disease (IHD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to these conditions were estimated for population of 1,000,000 simulated patients for each treatment pathway and country. Results SPC therapy was projected to improve health outcomes over SLGS, FCC and CTP over 10 years in all five countries. SPC was forecast to reduce mortality by 5.4% (Italy), 4.9% (Russia), 4.5% (China), 2.3% (South Korea) and 3.6% (Mexico) versus CTP and showed greater projected reductions in mortality than SLGS and FCC. DALYs were projected to be reduced with SPC therapy by between 5.7% (Italy) and 2.2% (South Korea) compared with CTP and reductions in the incidence of clinical events were also projected with SPC therapy, with decreases in the range of 11.5% (Italy) to 4.9% (South Korea) versus CTP. Conclusions Ten-year projections of clinical outcomes associated with different anti-hypertensive treatment pathways in five countries indicated that both combination therapies (FCC and SPC) are likely to reduce the disease burden of hypertension compared with conventional management approaches, with SPC showing the greatest overall benefits due to improved adherence. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): Sanofi, Gentilly, France

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Camacho, Oscar M., Andrew Hill, Stacy Fiebelkorn, Aaron Williams et James Murphy. « Investigating the Health Effects of 3 Coexisting Tobacco-Related Products Using System Dynamics Population Modeling : An Italian Population Case Study ». Frontiers in Public Health 9 (16 novembre 2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.700473.

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With the proliferation of tobacco products, there might be a need for more complex models than current two-product models. We have developed a three-product model able to represent interactions between three products in the marketplace. We also investigate if using several implementations of two-product models could provide sufficient information to assess 3 coexisting products. Italy is used as case-study with THPs and e-cigarettes as the products under investigation. We use transitions rates estimated for THPs in Japan and e-cigarettes in the USA to project what could happen if the Italian population were to behave as the Japanese for THP or USA for e-cigarettes. Results suggest that three-product models may be hindered by data availability while two product models could miss potential synergies between products. Both, THP and E-Cigarette scenarios, led to reduction in life-years lost although the Japanese THP scenario reductions were 3 times larger than the USA e-cigarette projections.

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Giulio, Perrotta. « Clinical evidence in the phenomenon of Demonic Possession ». Annals of Psychiatry and Treatment, 18 octobre 2021, 088–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.17352/apt.000035.

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Purpose: Starting from the classic definition of “demonic possession” (as a psychophysical condition in which a person becomes the victim of a supernatural being of demonic origin), the present research, starting from the study published in 2019 on the proposed clinical classification of this particular phenomenon, is aimed at confirming the theoretical assumption of psychopathological origin, refuting the assumptions of the most significant analytical orientations, such as the ethnopsychiatric, the socio-anthropological, the cultural, the religious and the esoteric, to reaffirm the accuracy of the theoretical approach of the multifactorial model proposed in the previous research. Methods: Clinical interview, based on narrative-anamnestic and documentary evidence and the basis of the Perrotta Human Emotions Model (PHEM) concerning their emotional and perceptual-reactive experience, and administration of the battery of psychometric tests published in international scientific journals by the author of this work: 1) Perrotta Integrative Clinical Interviews (PICI-2), to investigate functional and dysfunctional personality traits; 2) Perrotta Individual Sexual Matrix Questionnaire (PSM-Q), to investigate the individual sexual matrix; 3) Perrotta Affective Dependence Questionnaire (PAD-Q), to investigate the profiles of affective and relational dependence; 4) Perrotta Human Defense Mechanisms Questionnaire (PDM-Q), to investigate the defence mechanisms of the Ego. Results: The preliminary results of the interviews and the anamnestic form would suggest that the phenomenon of demonic possession has a greater tendency to manifest itself in the female group, in the juvenile group (and tends to decrease but not to disappear with the advancement of age) and in the group geographically originating in the centre-south of Italy (due to greater religious influences, popular beliefs and ancestral fideistic representations). Moreover, the subsequent findings would lead to deduce with almost total certainty, concerning the selected sample, that the phenomenon of demonic possession has an absolute prevalence in the believing population, faithful or in any case trusting in the existence of paranormal phenomena per se, even in the absence of objective and/or scientific evidence. Based on the PICI-2 it emerged that the primary emerging disorder turns out to be alternatively the delusional disorder, the dissociative disorder and the obsessive disorder; followed, as secondary disorders, by the delusional disorder (if it is not considered as primary disorder), the schizoid disorder, the borderline disorder and the psychopathic disorder. Even the analysis of functional traits has reported the marked dysfunctional tendency of the classes that refer to self-control, sensitivity, Ego-ID comparison, emotionality, ego stability, security and relational functionality, reaffirming here too the marked dysfunctional tendency of the clinical population. According to the PSM-Q, more than 1/4 of participants present a lack of acceptance of their sexual orientation and a marked tendency to chronicle feelings of shame into dysfunctional sexual behaviours of avoidance or hypersexuality. Still, nine in ten reports having experienced severe psychological or physical abuse at a young age, or intraparental relational imbalance, or otherwise a sexual upbringing that was not open and lacked free communication. According to the PDM-Q, 37.2% are affected by affective dependence, with a greater emphasis on types I (neurotic), V (borderline), III (histrionic), and VII (psychotic) in that order of descent. Finally, the PDM-Q reveals the widespread psychopathological tendency of the ego function framework for the mechanisms of isolation, denial, regression, reactive formation, denial, projection, removal, withdrawal, instinct, repression, and idealization. Conclusions: The present research demonstrates beyond any reasonable doubt the psychopathological nature of the phenomenon of demonic possession, which deserves to be treated pharmacologically and with a psychotherapeutic approach (preferably cognitive-behavioural and/or strategic), according to the symptoms manifested and the severity of the morbid condition.

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Francisci, Silvia, Guilia Capodaglio, Anna Gigli, Cristina Mollica et Stefano Guzzinati. « Cancer cost profiles : The Epicost estimation approach ». Frontiers in Public Health 10 (21 septembre 2022). http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.974505.

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Sustainability of cancer burden is becoming increasingly central in the policy makers' debate, and poses a challenge for the welfare systems, due to trends towards greater intensity of healthcare service use, which imply increasing costs of cancer care. Measuring and projecting the economic burden associated with cancer and identifying effective policies for minimising its impact are important issues for healthcare systems. Scope of this paper is to illustrate a novel comprehensive approach (called Epicost) to the estimation of the economic burden of cancer, based on micro-data collected from multiple data sources. It consists of a model of cost analysis to estimate the amount of reimbursement payed by the National Health Service to health service providers (hospitals, ambulatories, pharmacies) for the expenses incurred in the diagnoses and treatments of a cohort of cancer patients; these cancer costs are estimated in various phases of the disease reflecting patients' patterns of care: initial, monitoring and final phase. The main methodological features are illustrated using a cohort of colon cancer cases from a Cancer Registry in Italy. This approach has been successfully implemented in Italy and it has been adapted to other European countries, such as Belgium, Norway and Poland in the framework of the Innovative Partnership for Action Against Cancer (iPAAC) Joint Action, sponsored by the European Commission. It is replicable in countries/regions where population-based cancer registry data is available and linkable at individual level with administrative data on costs of care.

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Hily, Jean-Michel, Veronique Komar, Nils Poulicard, Emmanuelle Vigne, Olivier Jacquet, Nathalie Protet, Anne-Sophie Spilmont et Olivier Lemaire. « Biological evidence and molecular modeling of a grapevine Pinot gris virus outbreak in a vineyard ». Phytobiomes Journal, 28 avril 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/pbiomes-11-20-0079-r.

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Since its identification in 2003, little has been revealed about the spread of grapevine Pinot gris virus (GPGV), an emerging grapevine virus. According to studies from Italy, GPGV transmission in the vineyard can be fast but progressive over the years. To gain new insights into the spread of GPGV infections, we tested 67 grapevines in a single vineyard parcel in southern France. These vines were sampled over eight years (2013-2020) and tested for GPGV by RT-PCR using a new primer pair designed from the recently described genetic diversity of GPGV worldwide. While focusing on a portion of the samples (20), we observed a drastic increase in newly GPGV-infected vines from 2014 (5%, 1 of 20) to 2015 (80%, 16 of 20) and 2016 (90%, 18 of 20). Infected vines were scattered throughout the vineyard with no distinct pattern of distribution and some rare vines remained negative through 2020. Using all available genomic information, we performed Bayesian-based phylogeographic analyses that identified a major intra-vineyard transmission in 2014-2015. To test our model, we analyzed 47 additional grapevines and confirmed the outbreak of GPGV in 2015, validating our in-silico projection. Interestingly, some grapevines remained negative throughout the study, in spite of their close proximity to infected plants. These results raise questions on the dynamic of vector populations and environmental conditions that may be required for virus spread to occur in the vineyard.

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Rasella, Davide, Lorenzo Richiardi, Nicolai Brachowicz, H. Xavier Jara, Mark Hanson, Delia Boccia, Matteo G. Richiardi et Costanza Pizzi. « Developing an integrated microsimulation model for the impact of fiscal policies on child health in Europe : the example of childhood obesity in Italy ». BMC Medicine 19, n^o 1 (30 novembre 2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-02155-6.

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Abstract Background We developed an integrated model called Microsimulation for Income and Child Health (MICH) that provides a tool for analysing the prospective effects of fiscal policies on childhood health in European countries. The aim of this first MICH study is to evaluate the impact of alternative fiscal policies on childhood overweight and obesity in Italy. Methods MICH model is composed of three integrated modules. Firstly, module 1 (M1) simulates the effects of fiscal policies on disposable household income using the tax-benefit microsimulation program EUROMOD fed with the Italian EU-SILC 2010 data. Secondly, module 2 (M2) exploits data provided by the Italian birth cohort called Nascita e Infanzia: gli Effetti dell’Ambiente (NINFEA), translated as Birth and Childhood: the Effects of the Environment study, and runs a series of concatenated regressions in order to estimate the prospective effects of income on child body mass index (BMI) at different ages. Finally, module 3 (M3) uses dynamic microsimulation techniques that combine the population structure and incomes obtained by M1, with regression model specifications and estimated effect sizes provided by M2, projecting BMI distributions according to the simulated policy scenarios. Results Both universal benefits, such as universal basic income (BI), and targeted interventions, such as child benefit (CB) for poorer households, have a significant effect on childhood overweight, with a prevalence ratio (PR) in 10-year-old children—in comparison with the baseline fiscal system—of 0.88 (95%CI 0.82–0.93) and 0.89 (95%CI 0.83–0.94), respectively. The impact of the fiscal reforms was even larger for child obesity, reaching a PR of 0.67 (95%CI 0·50–0.83) for the simulated BI and 0.64 (95%CI 0.44–0.84) for CB at the same age. While both types of policies show similar effects, the estimated costs for a 1% prevalence reduction in overweight and obesity with respect to the baseline scenario is much lower with a more focalised benefit policy than with universal ones. Conclusions Our results show that fiscal policies can have a strong impact on childhood health conditions. Focalised interventions that increase family income, especially in the most vulnerable populations, can help to prevent child overweight and obesity. Robust microsimulation models to forecast the effects of fiscal policies on health should be considered as one of the instruments to reach the Health in All Policies (HiAP) goals.

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Khailaie, Sahamoddin, Tanmay Mitra, Arnab Bandyopadhyay, Marta Schips, Pietro Mascheroni, Patrizio Vanella, Berit Lange, Sebastian C. Binder et Michael Meyer-Hermann. « Development of the reproduction number from coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data in Germany and implications for political measures ». BMC Medicine 19, n^o 1 (28 janvier 2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01884-4.

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Abstract Background SARS-CoV-2 has induced a worldwide pandemic and subsequent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread of the virus. As in many countries, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany has led to a consecutive roll-out of different NPIs. As these NPIs have (largely unknown) adverse effects, targeting them precisely and monitoring their effectiveness are essential. We developed a compartmental infection dynamics model with specific features of SARS-CoV-2 that allows daily estimation of a time-varying reproduction number and published this information openly since the beginning of April 2020. Here, we present the transmission dynamics in Germany over time to understand the effect of NPIs and allow adaptive forecasts of the epidemic progression. Methods We used a data-driven estimation of the evolution of the reproduction number for viral spreading in Germany as well as in all its federal states using our model. Using parameter estimates from literature and, alternatively, with parameters derived from a fit to the initial phase of COVID-19 spread in different regions of Italy, the model was optimized to fit data from the Robert Koch Institute. Results The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) in Germany decreased to <1 in early April 2020, 2–3 weeks after the implementation of NPIs. Partial release of NPIs both nationally and on federal state level correlated with moderate increases in Rt until August 2020. Implications of state-specific Rt on other states and on national level are characterized. Retrospective evaluation of the model shows excellent agreement with the data and usage of inpatient facilities well within the healthcare limit. While short-term predictions may work for a few weeks, long-term projections are complicated by unpredictable structural changes. Conclusions The estimated fraction of immunized population by August 2020 warns of a renewed outbreak upon release of measures. A low detection rate prolongs the delay reaching a low case incidence number upon release, showing the importance of an effective testing-quarantine strategy. We show that real-time monitoring of transmission dynamics is important to evaluate the extent of the outbreak, short-term projections for the burden on the healthcare system, and their response to policy changes.

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Gebremedhin, Berihun, Desalegn Chala, Øystein Flagstad, Afework Bekele, Vegar Bakkestuen, Bram van Moorter, G. Francesco Ficetola, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Christian Brochmann et Nils Chr Stenseth. « Quest for New Space for Restricted Range Mammals : The Case of the Endangered Walia Ibex ». Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 9 (20 juillet 2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.611632.

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Populations of large mammals have declined at alarming rates, especially in areas with intensified land use where species can only persist in small habitat fragments. To support conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models for the Walia ibex (Capra walie), an endangered wild goat endemic to the Simen Mountains, Ethiopia. We calibrated several models that differ in statistical properties to estimate the spatial extent of suitable habitats of the Walia ibex in the Simen Mountains, as well as in other parts of the Ethiopian highlands to assess potentially suitable areas outside the current distribution range of the species. We further addressed the potential consequences of future climate change using a climate model with four emission scenarios. Model projections estimated the potential suitable habitat under current climate to 501–672 km2 in Simen and 6,251–7,732 km2 in other Ethiopian mountains. Under projected climate change by 2,080, the suitable habitat became larger in Simen but smaller in other parts of Ethiopia. The projected expansion in Simen is contrary to the general expectation of shrinking suitable habitats for high-elevation species under climate warming and may partly be due to the ruggedness of these particular mountains. The Walia ibex has a wide altitudinal range and is able to exploit very steep slopes, allowing it to track the expected vegetation shift to higher altitudes. However, this potential positive impact may not last long under continued climate warming, as the species will not have much more new space left to colonize. Our study indicates that the current distribution range can be substantially increased by reintroducing and/or translocating the species to other areas with suitable habitat. Indeed, to increase the viability and prospects for survival of this flagship species, we strongly recommend human-assisted reintroduction to other Ethiopian mountains. Emulating the successful reintroduction of the Alpine ibex that has spread from a single mountain in Italy to its historical ranges of the Alps in Europe might contribute to saving the Walia ibex from extinction.

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Chavdarov, Anatoliy V. « Special Issue No. – 10, June, 2020 Journal > ; Special Issue > ; Special Issue No. – 10, June, 2020 > ; Page 5 “Quantative Methods in Modern Science” organized by Academic Paper Ltd, Russia MORPHOLOGICAL AND ANATOMICAL FEATURES OF THE GENUS GAGEA SALISB., GROWING IN THE EAST KAZAKHSTAN REGION Authors : Zhamal T. Igissinova,Almash A. Kitapbayeva,Anargul S. Sharipkhanova,Alexander L. Vorobyev,Svetlana F. Kolosova,Zhanat K. Idrisheva, DOI : https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.spl.10/2020.06.00041 Abstract : Due to ecological preferences among species of the genus GageaSalisb, many plants are qualified as rare and/or endangered. Therefore, the problem of rational use of natural resources, in particular protection of early spring plant species is very important. However, literary sources analysis only reveals data on the biology of species of this genus. The present research,conducted in the spring of 2017-2019, focuses on anatomical and morphological features of two Altai species : Gagealutea and Gagea minima ; these features were studied, clarified and confirmed by drawings and photographs. The anatomical structure of the stem and leaf blade was studied in detail. The obtained research results will prove useful for studies of medicinal raw materials and honey plants. The aforementioned species are similar in morphological features, yet G. minima issmaller in size, and its shoots appear earlier than those of other species Keywords : Flora,gageas,Altai species,vegetative organs., Refference : I. Atlas of areas and resources of medicinal plants of Kazakhstan.Almaty, 2008. II. Baitenov M.S. Flora of Kazakhstan.Almaty : Ġylym, 2001. III. DanilevichV. G. ThegenusGageaSalisb. of WesternTienShan. PhD Thesis, St. Petersburg,1996. IV. EgeubaevaR.A., GemedzhievaN.G. The current state of stocks of medicinal plants in some mountain ecosystems of Kazakhstan.Proceedings of the international scientific conference ‘”Results and prospects for the development of botanical science in Kazakhstan’, 2002. V. Kotukhov Yu.A. New species of the genus Gagea (Liliaceae) from Southern Altai. Bot. Journal.1989;74(11). VI. KotukhovYu.A. ListofvascularplantsofKazakhstanAltai. Botan. Researches ofSiberiaandKazakhstan.2005;11. VII. KotukhovYu. The current state of populations of rare and endangered plants in Eastern Kazakhstan. Almaty : AST, 2009. VIII. Kotukhov Yu.A., DanilovaA.N., AnufrievaO.A. Synopsisoftheonions (AlliumL.) oftheKazakhstanAltai, Sauro-ManrakandtheZaisandepression. BotanicalstudiesofSiberiaandKazakhstan. 2011;17 : 3-33. IX. Kotukhov, Yu.A., Baytulin, I.O. Rareandendangered, endemicandrelictelementsofthefloraofKazakhstanAltai. MaterialsoftheIntern. scientific-practical. conf. ‘Sustainablemanagementofprotectedareas’.Almaty : Ridder, 2010. X. Krasnoborov I.M. et al. The determinant of plants of the Republic of Altai. Novosibirsk : SB RAS, 2012. XI. Levichev I.G. On the species status of Gagea Rubicunda. Botanical Journal.1997;6:71-76. XII. Levichev I.G. A new species of the genus Gagea (Liliaceae). Botanical Journal. 2000;7 : 186-189. XIII. Levichev I.G., Jangb Chang-gee, Seung Hwan Ohc, Lazkovd G.A.A new species of genus GageaSalisb.(Liliaceae) from Kyrgyz Republic (Western Tian Shan, Chatkal Range, Sary-Chelek Nature Reserve). Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity.2019 ; 12 : 341-343. XIV. Peterson A., Levichev I.G., Peterson J. Systematics of Gagea and Lloydia (Liliaceae) and infrageneric classification of Gagea based on molecular and morphological data. Molecular Phylogenetics and Evolution.2008 ; 46. XV. Peruzzi L., Peterson A., Tison J.-M., Peterson J. Phylogenetic relationships of GageaSalisb.(Liliaceae) in Italy, inferred from molecular and morphological data matrices. Plant Systematics and Evolution ; 2008 : 276. XVI. Rib R.D. Honey plants of Kazakhstan. Advertising Digest, 2013. XVII. Scherbakova L.I., Shirshikova N.A. Flora of medicinal plants in the vicinity of Ust-Kamenogorsk. Collection of materials of the scientific-practical conference ‘Unity of Education, Science and Innovation’. Ust-Kamenogorsk : EKSU, 2011. XVIII. syganovA.P. PrimrosesofEastKazakhstan. Ust-Kamenogorsk : EKSU, 2001. XIX. Tsyganov A.P. Flora and vegetation of the South Altai Tarbagatay. Berlin : LAP LAMBERT,2014. XX. Utyasheva, T.R., Berezovikov, N.N., Zinchenko, Yu.K. ProceedingsoftheMarkakolskStateNatureReserve. Ust-Kamenogorsk, 2009. XXI. Xinqi C, Turland NJ. Gagea. Flora of China.2000;24 : 117-121. XXII. Zarrei M., Zarre S., Wilkin P., Rix E.M. Systematic revision of the genus GageaSalisb. (Liliaceae) in Iran.BotJourn Linn Soc.2007;154. XXIII. Zarrei M., Wilkin P., Ingroille M.J., Chase M.W. A revised infrageneric classification for GageaSalisb. (Tulipeae ; Liliaceae) : insights from DNA sequence and morphological data.Phytotaxa.2011:5. View | Download INFLUENCE OF SUCCESSION CROPPING ON ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF NO-TILL CROP ROTATIONS Authors : Victor K. Dridiger,Roman S. Stukalov,Rasul G. Gadzhiumarov,Anastasiya A. Voropaeva,Viktoriay A. Kolomytseva, DOI : https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.spl.10/2020.06.00042 Abstract : This study was aimed at examining the influence of succession cropping on the economic efficiency of no-till field crop rotations on the black earth in the zone of unstable moistening of the Stavropol krai. A long-term stationary experiment was conducted to examine for the purpose nine field crop rotation patterns different in the number of fields (four to six), set of crops, and their succession in crop rotation. The respective shares of legumes, oilseeds, and cereals in the cropping pattern were 17 to 33, 17 to 40, and 50 to 67 %. It has been established that in case of no-till field crop cultivation the economic efficiency of plant production depends on the set of crops and their succession in rotation. The most economically efficient type of crop rotation is the soya-winter wheat-peas-winter wheat-sunflower-corn six-field rotation with two fields of legumes : in this rotation 1 ha of crop rotation area yields 3 850 grain units per ha at a grain unit prime cost of 5.46 roubles ; the plant production output return and profitability were 20,888 roubles per ha and 113 %, respectively. The high production profitabilities provided by the soya-winter wheat-sunflower four-field and the soya-winter-wheat-sunflower-corn-winter wheat five-field crop rotation are 108.7 and 106.2 %, respectively. The inclusion of winter wheat in crop rotation for two years in a row reduces the second winter wheat crop yield by 80 to 100 %, which means a certain reduction in the grain unit harvesting rate to 3.48-3.57 thousands per ha of rotation area and cuts the production profitability down to 84.4-92.3 %. This is why, no-till cropping should not include winter wheat for a second time Keywords : No-till technology,crop rotation,predecessor,yield,return,profitability, Refference : I Badakhova G. Kh. and Knutas A. V., Stavropol Krai : Modern Climate Conditions [Stavropol’skiykray : sovremennyyeklimaticheskiyeusloviya]. Stavropol : SUE Krai Communication Networks, 2007. II Cherkasov G. N. and Akimenko A. S. Scientific Basis of Modernization of Crop Rotations and Formation of Their Systems according to the Specializations of Farms in the Central Chernozem Region [Osnovy moderniz atsiisevooborotoviformirovaniyaikh sistem v sootvetstvii so spetsi-alizatsiyeykhozyaystvTsentral’nogoChernozem’ya]. Zemledelie. 2017 ; 4 : 3-5. III Decree 330 of July 6, 2017 the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia “On Approving Coefficients of Converting to Agricultural Crops to Grain Units [Ob utverzhdeniikoeffitsiyentovperevoda v zernovyyee dinitsysel’s kokhozyaystvennykhkul’tur]. IV Dridiger V. K., About Methods of Research of No-Till Technology [O metodikeissledovaniytekhnologii No-till]//Achievements of Science and Technology of AIC (Dostizheniyanaukiitekhniki APK). 2016 ; 30 (4) : 30-32. V Dridiger V. K. and Gadzhiumarov R. G. Growth, Development, and Productivity of Soya Beans Cultivated On No-Till Technology in the Zone of Unstable Moistening of Stavropol Region [Rost, razvitiyeiproduktivnost’ soiprivozdelyvaniipotekhnologii No-till v zone ne-ustoychivog ouvlazhneniyaStavropol’skogokraya]//Oil Crops RTBVNIIMK (Maslichnyyekul’turyNTBVNIIMK). 2018 ; 3 (175) : 52–57. VI Dridiger V. K., Godunova E. I., Eroshenko F. V., Stukalov R. S., Gadzhiumarov, R. G., Effekt of No-till Technology on erosion resistance, the population of earthworms and humus content in soil (Vliyaniyetekhnologii No-till naprotivoerozionnuyuustoychivost’, populyatsiyudozhdevykhcherveyisoderzhaniyegumusa v pochve)//Research Journal of Pharmaceutical, Biological and Chemical Sciences. 2018 ; 9 (2) : 766-770. VII Karabutov A. P., Solovichenko V. D., Nikitin V. V. et al., Reproduction of Soil Fertility, Productivity and Energy Efficiency of Crop Rotations [Vosproizvodstvoplodorodiyapochv, produktivnost’ ienergeticheskayaeffektivnost’ sevooborotov]. Zemledelie. 2019 ; 2 : 3-7. VIII Kulintsev V. V., Dridiger V. K., Godunova E. I., Kovtun V. I., Zhukova M. P., Effekt of No-till Technology on The Available Moisture Content and Soil Density in The Crop Rotation [Vliyaniyetekhnologii No-till nasoderzhaniyedostupnoyvlagiiplotnost’ pochvy v sevoob-orote]// Research Journal of Pharmaceutical, Biological and Chemical Sciences. 2017 ; 8 (6) : 795-99. IX Kulintsev V. V., Godunova E. I., Zhelnakova L. I. et al., Next-Gen Agriculture System for Stavropol Krai : Monograph [SistemazemledeliyanovogopokoleniyaStavropol’skogokraya : Monogtafiya]. Stavropol : AGRUS Publishers, Stavropol State Agrarian University, 2013. X Lessiter Frank, 29 reasons why many growers are harvesting higher no-till yields in their fields than some university scientists find in research plots//No-till Farmer. 2015 ; 44 (2) : 8. XI Rodionova O. A. Reproduction and Exchange-Distributive Relations in Farming Entities [Vosproizvodstvoiobmenno-raspredelitel’nyyeotnosheniya v sel’skokhozyaystvennykhorganizatsiyakh]//Economy, Labour, and Control in Agriculture (Ekonomika, trud, upravleniye v sel’skomkhozyaystve). 2010 ; 1 (2) : 24-27. XII Sandu I. S., Svobodin V. A., Nechaev V. I., Kosolapova M. V., and Fedorenko V. F., Agricultural Production Efficiency : Recommended Practices [Effektivnost’ sel’skokhozyaystvennogoproizvodstva (metodicheskiyerekomendatsii)]. Moscow : Rosinforagrotech, 2013. XIII Sotchenko V. S. Modern Corn Cultivation Technologies [Sovremennayatekhnologiyavozdelyvaniya]. Moscow : Rosagrokhim, 2009. View | Download DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING OF AUTONOMOUS PORTABLE SEISMOMETER DESIGNED FOR USE AT ULTRALOW TEMPERATURES IN ARCTIC ENVIRONMENT Authors : Mikhail A. Abaturov,Yuriy V. Sirotinskiy, DOI : https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.spl.10/2020.06.00043 Abstract : This paper is concerned with solving one of the issues of the general problem of designing geophysical equipment for the natural climatic environment of the Arctic. The relevance of the topic has to do with an increased global interest in this region. The paper is aimed at considering the basic principles of developing and the procedure of testing seismic instruments for use at ultralow climatic temperatures. In this paper the indicated issue is considered through the example of a seismic module designed for petroleum and gas exploration by passive seismoacoustic methods. The seismic module is a direct-burial portable unit of around 5 kg in weight, designed to continuously measure and record microseismic triaxial orthogonal (ZNE) noise in a range from 0.1 to 45 Hz during several days in autonomous mode. The functional chart of designing the seismic module was considered, and concrete conclusions were made for choosing the necessary components to meet the ultralow-temperature operational requirements. The conclusions made served for developing appropriate seismic module. In this case, the components and tools used included a SAFT MP 176065 xc low-temperature lithium cell, industrial-spec electronic component parts, a Zhaofeng Geophysical ZF-4.5 Chinese primary electrodynamic seismic sensor, housing seal parts made of frost-resistant silicone materials, and finely dispersed silica gel used as water-retaining sorbent to avoid condensation in the housing. The paper also describes a procedure of low-temperature collation tests at the lab using a New Brunswick Scientific freezing plant. The test results proved the operability of the developed equipment at ultralow temperatures down to -55°C. In addition, tests were conducted at low microseismic noises in the actual Arctic environment. The possibility to detect signals in a range from 1 to 10 Hz at the level close to the NLNM limit (the Peterson model) has been confirmed, which allows monitoring and exploring petroleum and gas deposits by passive methods. As revealed by this study, the suggested approaches are efficient in developing high-precision mobile seismic instruments for use at ultralow climatic temperatures. The solution of the considered instrumentation and methodical issues is of great practical significance as a constituent of the generic problem of Arctic exploration. Keywords : Seismic instrumentation,microseismic monitoring,Peterson model,geological exploration,temperature ratings,cooling test, Refference : I. AD797 : Ultralow Distortion, Ultralow Noise Op Amp, Analog Devices, Inc., Data Sheet (Rev. K). Analog Devices, Inc. URL : https://www.analog.com/media/en/technical-documentation/data-sheets/AD797.pdf(Date of access September 2, 2019). II. Agafonov, V. M., Egorov, I. V., and Shabalina, A. S. Operating Principles and Technical Characteristics of a Small-Sized Molecular–Electronic Seismic Sensor with Negative Feedback [Printsipyraboty I tekhnicheskiyekharakteristikimalogabaritnogomolekulyarno-elektronnogoseysmodatchika s otritsatel’noyobratnoysvyaz’yu]. SeysmicheskiyePribory (Seismic Instruments). 2014 ; 50 (1) : 1–8. DOI : 10.3103/S0747923914010022. III. Antonovskaya, G., Konechnaya, Ya.,Kremenetskaya, E., Asming, V., Kvaema, T., Schweitzer, J., Ringdal, F. Enhanced Earthquake Monitoring in the European Arctic. Polar Science. 2015 ; 1 (9) : 158-167. IV. Anthony, R. E., Aster, R. C., Wiens, D., Nyblade, Andr., Anandakrishnan, Sr., Huerta, Audr., Winberry, J. P., Wilson, T., and Rowe, Ch. The Seismic Noise Environment of Antarctica. Seismological Research Letters. 2015 ; 86(1) : 89-100. DOI : 10.1785/0220150005 V. Brincker, R., Lago, T. L., Andersen, P., and Ventura, C. Improving the Classical Geophone Sensor Element by Digital Correction. In Conference Proceedings : IMAC-XXIII : A Conference & ; Exposition on Structural Dynamics Society for Experimental Mechanics, 2005. URL : https://www.researchgate.net/publication/242452637_Improving_the_Classical_Geophone_Sensor_Element_by_Digital_Correction(Date of access September 2, 2019). VI. Bylaw 164 of the State Committee for Construction of the Russian Federation “On adopting amendments to SNiP 31-01-99 “Construction climatology”. URL : https://base.garant.ru/2322381/(Date of access September 2, 2019). VII. Chao Xu, Junbo Wang, Deyong Chen, Jian Chen, Bowen Liu, Wenjie Qi, XichenZheng, Hua Wei, Guoqing Zhang. The Electrochemical Seismometer Based on a Novel Designed.Sensing Electrode for Undersea Exploration. 20th International Conference on Solid-State Sensors, Actuators and Microsystems &Eurosensors XXXIII (TRANSDUCERS &EUROSENSORS XXXIII). IEEE, 2019. DOI : 10.1109/TRANSDUCERS.2019.8808450. VIII. Chebotareva, I. Ya. New algorithms of emission tomography for passive seismic monitoring of a producing hydrocarbon deposit : Part I. Algorithms of processing and numerical simulation [Novyye algoritmyemissionnoyto mografiidlyapassivnogoseysmicheskogomonitoringarazrabatyvayemykhmestorozhdeniyuglevodorodov. Chast’ I : Algoritmyobrabotki I chislennoyemodelirovaniye]. FizikaZemli. 2010 ; 46(3):187-98. DOI : 10.1134/S106935131003002X IX. Danilov, A. V. and Konechnaya, Ya. V. Analytical comparison of seismic instruments for stationary surveys in the Arctic [Sravnitel’nyyanalizseysmicheskoyapparaturydlyastatsionarnykhnablyudeniy v Arktike]. DSYS. URL : https://dsys.ru/upload/id254_docPDF_FranzJosefLand.pdf(Date of access September 2, 2019). X. Dew point temperature calculator. Maple Tech. International LLC. URL : https://www.calculator.net/dew-point-calculator.html?airtemperature=20&airtemperatureunit=celsius&humidity=0.34&dewpoint=&dewpointunit=celsius&x=51&y=14(Date of access September 2, 2019). XI. Frolov, A. S. Matching of wave fields recorded by different geophysical receivers [Soglasovaniyevolnovykhpoley, poluchennykh s primeneniyemrazlichnoyregistriruyushcheyapparatury]. Abstracts IX International scientific and technical conference competition of young specialists “Geophysics-2013”. Saint-Petersburg : Gubkin University, 2013. URL : https://www.gubkin.ru/faculty/geology_and_geophysics/chairs_and_departments/exploration_geophysics_and_computers_systems/files/2013_SPb_Frolov.pdf. (Date of access September 2, 2019). XII. Gibbons, S. J., Asming, V., Fedorov, A., Fyen, J., Kero, J., Kozlovskaya, E., Kværna, T., Liszka, L., Näsholm, S.P., Raita, T., Roth, M., Tiira, T., Vinogradov, Yu. The European Arctic : A laboratory for seismoacoustic studies. Seism. Res. Letters. 2015 ; 86 (3) : 917–928. XIII. GOST 8.395-80. State system for ensuring the uniformity of measurements. Reference conditions of measurements while calibrating. General requirements [Gosudarstvennayasistemaobespecheniyaedinstvaizmereniy. Normal’nyyeusloviyaizmereniypripoverke. Obshchiyetrebovaniya]. Moscow : Standartinform, 2008. URL : http://gostrf.com/normadata/1/4294821/4294821960.pdf (Date of access September 2, 2019). XIV. Guralp 6TD. Operators’ Guide. Document Number : MAN-T60-0002, Issue J : April, 2017. Guralp Systems Limited. URL : https://www.guralp.com/documents/MAN-T60-0002.pdf (Date of access September 2, 2019). XV. Inshakova, A. S., Barykina, E. S., and Kozlov, V. V. Role of silica gel in adsorption air drying [Rol’ silikagelya v adsorbtsionnoyosushkevozdukha]. AlleyaNauki (Alley of Science). 2017 ; 15. URL : https://www.alley- science.ru/domains_data/files/November2017/ROL%20SILIKAGELYa%20V%20ADSORBCIONNOY%20OSUShKE%20VOZDUHA.pdf(Date of access September 2, 2019). XVI. Ioffe, D. and Pozdnyakov, P. Searching for Hidden Reserves of Modern Microchip Circuits. Part I [Poiskskrytykhrezervovsovremennykhmikroskhem. Chast’ I].Komponenty I tekhnologii (Components and Technologies). 2015 ; 4 : 144-46. XVII. Jiang Xu, Xi Wang, Ningyi Yuan, Jianning Ding, Si Qin, Joselito M. Razal, Xuehang Wang, ShanhaiGe, Gogotsi, Yu. Extending the low temperature operational limit of Li-ion battery to −80 °C. Energy Storage Materials (IF0). Published 2019-04-27. DOI : 10.1016/j.ensm.2019.04.033. XVIII. Kouznetsov, O. L., Lyasch, Y. F., Chirkin, I. A., Rizanov, E. G., LeRoy, S. D., Koligaev, S. O. Long-term monitoring of microseismic emissions : Earth tides, fracture distribution, and fluid content. SEG, APPG Interpretation. 2016 : 4 (2) : T191–T204. XIX. Laverov, N. P., Bogoyavlenskiy, V. I., Bogoyavlenskiy, I. V. Fundamental Aspects of Rational Management of the Petroleum and Gas Resources of the Arctic and the Russian Continental Shelf : Strategy, Prospects, and Problems [Fundamental’nyyeaspektyratsional’nogoosvoyeniyaresursovneftiigazaArktiki I shel’faRossii : strategiya, perspektivyi problem].Arktika : ekologiya I ekonomika [Arctic : Ecology and Economy]. 2016 ; 2 (22) : 4-13. XX. Lee, P. Low Noise Amplifier Selection Guide for Optimal Noise Performance, Analog Devices, Inc., AN-940 Application Note. Analog Devices, Inc. URL : https://www.analog.com/media/en/technical-documentation/application-notes/AN-940.pdf(Date of access September 2, 2019). XXI. 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View | Download COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF RESULTS OF TREATMENT OF PATIENTS WITH FOOT PATHOLOGY WHO UNDERWENT WEIL OPEN OSTEOTOMY BY CLASSICAL METHOD AND WITHOUT STEOSYNTHESIS Authors : Yuriy V. Lartsev,Dmitrii A. Rasputin,Sergey D. Zuev-Ratnikov,Pavel V.Ryzhov,Dmitry S. Kudashev,Anton A. Bogdanov, DOI : https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.spl.10/2020.06.00044 Abstract : The article considers the problem of surgical correction of the second metatarsal bone length. The article analyzes the results of treatment of patients with excess length of the second metatarsal bones that underwent osteotomy with and without osteosynthesis. The results of treatment of patients who underwent metatarsal shortening due to classical Weil-osteotomy with and without osteosynthesis were analyzed. The first group consisted of 34 patients. They underwent classical Weil osteotomy. The second group included 44 patients in whomosteotomy of the second metatarsal bone were not by the screw. When studying the results of the treatment in the immediate postoperative period, weeks 6, 12, slightly better results were observed in patients of the first group, while one year after surgical treatment the results in both groups were comparable. One year after surgical treatment, there were 2.9% (1 patient) of unsatisfactory results in the first group and 4.5% (2 patients) in the second group. Considering the comparability of the results of treatment in remote postoperative period, the choice of concrete method remains with the operating surgeon. Keywords : Flat feet,hallux valgus,corrective osteotomy,metatarsal bones, Refference : I. A novel modification of the Stainsby procedure : surgical technique and clinical outcome [Text] / E. Concannon, R. MacNiocaill, R. Flavin [et al.] // Foot Ankle Surg. – 2014. – Dec., Vol. 20(4). – P. 262–267. II. Accurate determination of relative metatarsal protrusion with a small intermetatarsal angle : a novel simplified method [Text] / L. Osher, M.M. Blazer, S. Buck [et al.] // J. Foot Ankle Surg. – 2014. – Sep.-Oct., Vol. 53(5). – P. 548–556. III. Argerakis, N.G. The radiographic effects of the scarf bunionectomy on rearfoot alignment [Text] / N.G. Argerakis, L.Jr. Weil, L.S. Sr. Weil // Foot Ankle Spec. – 2015. – Apr., Vol. 8(2). – P. 89–94. IV. Bauer, T. Percutaneous forefoot surgery [Text] / T. Bauer // Orthop. Traumatol. Surg. Res. – 2014. – Feb., Vol. 100(1 Suppl.). – P. S191–S204. V. Biomechanical Evaluation of Custom Foot Orthoses for Hallux Valgus Deformity [Text] // J. Foot Ankle Surg. – 2015. – Sep.-Oct., Vol.54(5). – P. 852–855. VI. Chopra, S. Characterization of gait in female patients with moderate to severe hallux valgus deformity [Text] / S. Chopra, K. Moerenhout, X. Crevoisier // Clin. Biomech. (Bristol, Avon). – 2015. – Jul., Vol. 30(6). – P. 629–635. VII. Computer assisted planning and custom-made surgical guide for malunited pronation deformity after first metatarsophalangeal joint arthrodesis in rheumatoid arthritis : a case report [Text] / M. Hirao, S. Ikemoto, H. Tsuboi [et al.] // Comput. Aided Surg. – 2014. – Vol. 19(1-3). – P. 13–19. VIII. Correlation between static radiographic measurements and intersegmental angular measurements during gait using a multisegment foot model [Text] / D.Y. Lee, S.G. Seo, E.J. Kim [et al.] // Foot Ankle Int. – 2015. – Jan., Vol.36(1). – P. 1–10. IX. Correlative study between length of first metatarsal and transfer metatarsalgia after osteotomy of first metatarsal [Text] : [Article in Chinese] / F.Q. Zhang, B.Y. Pei, S.T. Wei [et al.] // Zhonghua Yi XueZaZhi. – 2013. – Nov. 19, Vol. 93(43). – P. 3441–3444. X. Dave, M.H. Forefoot Deformity in Rheumatoid Arthritis : A Comparison of Shod and Unshod Populations [Text] / M.H. Dave, L.W. Mason, K. Hariharan // Foot Ankle Spec. – 2015. – Oct., Vol. 8(5). – P. 378–383. XI. Does arthrodesis of the first metatarsophalangeal joint correct the intermetatarsal M1M2 angle ? Analysis of a continuous series of 208 arthrodeses fixed with plates [Text] / F. Dalat, F. Cottalorda, M.H. Fessy [et al.] // Orthop. Traumatol. Surg. Res. – 2015. – Oct., Vol. 101(6). – P. 709–714. XII. Dynamic plantar pressure distribution after percutaneous hallux valgus correction using the Reverdin-Isham osteotomy [Text] : [Article in Spanish] / G. Rodríguez-Reyes, E. López-Gavito, A.I. Pérez-Sanpablo [et al.] // Rev. Invest. Clin. – 2014. – Jul., Vol. 66, Suppl. 1. – P. S79-S84. XIII. Efficacy of Bilateral Simultaneous Hallux Valgus Correction Compared to Unilateral [Text] / A.V. Boychenko, L.N. Solomin, S.G. Parfeyev [et al.] // Foot Ankle Int. – 2015. – Nov., Vol. 36(11). – P. 1339–1343. XIV. Endolog technique for correction of hallux valgus : a prospective study of 30 patients with 4-year follow-up [Text] / C. Biz, M. Corradin, I. Petretta [et al.] // J. OrthopSurg Res. – 2015. – Jul. 2, № 10. – P. 102. XV. First metatarsal proximal opening wedge osteotomy for correction of hallux valgus deformity : comparison of straight versus oblique osteotomy [Text] / S.H. Han, E.H. Park, J. Jo [et al.] // Yonsei Med. J. – 2015. – May, Vol. 56(3). – P. 744–752. XVI. Long-term outcome of joint-preserving surgery by combination metatarsal osteotomies for shortening for forefoot deformity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis [Text] / H. Niki, T. Hirano, Y. Akiyama [et al.] // Mod. Rheumatol. – 2015. – Sep., Vol. 25(5). – P. 683–638. XVII. Maceira, E. Transfer metatarsalgia post hallux valgus surgery [Text] / E. Maceira, M. Monteagudo // Foot Ankle Clin. – 2014. – Jun., Vol. 19(2). – P.285–307. XVIII. Nielson, D.L. Absorbable fixation in forefoot surgery : a viable alternative to metallic hardware [Text] / D.L. Nielson, N.J. Young, C.M. Zelen // Clin. Podiatr. Med. Surg. – 2013. – Jul., Vol. 30(3). – P. 283–293 XIX. Patient’s satisfaction after outpatient forefoot surgery : Study of 619 cases [Text] / A. Mouton, V. Le Strat, D. Medevielle [et al.] // Orthop. Traumatol. Surg. Res. – 2015. – Oct., Vol. 101(6 Suppl.). – P. S217–S220. XX. Preference of surgical procedure for the forefoot deformity in the rheumatoid arthritis patients–A prospective, randomized, internal controlled study [Text] / M. Tada, T. Koike, T. Okano [et al.] // Mod. Rheumatol. – 2015. – May., Vol. 25(3). – P.362–366. XXI. Redfern, D. Percutaneous Surgery of the Forefoot [Text] / D. Redfern, J. Vernois, B.P. Legré // Clin. Podiatr. Med. Surg. – 2015. – Jul., Vol. 32(3). – P. 291–332. XXII. Singh, D. Bullous pemphigoid after bilateral forefoot surgery [Text] / D. Singh, A. Swann // Foot Ankle Spec. – 2015. – Feb., Vol. 8(1). – P. 68–72. XXIII. Treatment of moderate hallux valgus by percutaneous, extra-articular reverse-L Chevron (PERC) osteotomy [Text] / J. Lucas y Hernandez, P. Golanó, S. Roshan-Zamir [et al.] // Bone Joint J. – 2016. – Mar., Vol. 98-B(3). – P. 365–373. XXIV. Weil, L.Jr. Scarf osteotomy for correction of hallux abducto valgus deformity [Text] / L.Jr. Weil, M. Bowen // Clin. Podiatr. Med. Surg. – 2014. – Apr., Vol.31(2). – P. 233–246. View | Download QUANTITATIVE ULTRASONOGRAPHY OF THE STOMACH AND SMALL INTESTINE IN HEALTHYDOGS Authors : Roman A. Tcygansky,Irina I. Nekrasova,Angelina N. Shulunova,Alexander I.Sidelnikov, DOI : https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.spl.10/2020.06.00045 Abstract : Purpose.To determine the quantitative echogenicity indicators (and their ratio) of the layers of stomach and small intestine wall in healthy dogs. Methods. A prospective 3-year study of 86 healthy dogs (aged 1-7 yrs) of different breeds and of both sexes. Echo homogeneity and echogenicity of the stomach and intestines wall were determined by the method of Silina, T.L., et al. (2010) in absolute values of average brightness levels of ultrasound image pixels using the 8-bit scale with 256 shades of gray. Results. Quantitative echogenicity indicators of the stomach and the small intestine wall in dogs were determined. Based on the numerical values characterizing echogenicity distribution in each layer of a separate structure of the digestive system, the coefficient of gastric echogenicity is determined as 1:2.4:1.1 (mucosa/submucosa/muscle layers, respectively), the coefficient of duodenum and jejunum echogenicity is determined as 1:3.5:2 and that of ileum is 1:1.8:1. Clinical significance. The echogenicity coefficient of the wall of the digestive system allows an objective assessment of the stomach and intestines wall and can serve as the basis for a quantitative assessment of echogenicity changes for various pathologies of the digestive system Keywords : Ultrasound (US),echogenicity,echogenicity coefficient,digestive system,dogs,stomach,intestines, Refference : I. Agut, A. Ultrasound examination of the small intestine in small animals // Veterinary focus. 2009.Vol. 19. No. 1. P. 20-29. II. Bull. 4.RF patent 2398513, IPC51A61B8 / 00 A61B8 / 14 (2006.01) A method for determining the homoechogeneity and the degree of echogenicity of an ultrasound image / T. Silina, S. S. Golubkov. – No. 2008149311/14 ; declared 12/16/2008 ; publ. 09/10/2010 III. Choi, M., Seo, M., Jung, J., Lee, K., Yoon, J., Chang, D., Park, RD. Evaluation of canine gastric motility with ultrasonography // J. of Veterinary Medical Science. – 2002. Vol. 64. – № 1. – P. 17-21. IV. Delaney, F., O’Brien, R.T., Waller, K.Ultrasound evaluation of small bowel thickness compared to weight in normal dogs // Veterinary Radiology and Ultrasound. 2003 Vol. 44, № 5. Р 577-580. V. Diana, A., Specchi, S., Toaldo, M.B., Chiocchetti, R., Laghi, A., Cipone, M. Contrast-enhanced ultrasonography of the small bowel in healthy cats // Veterinary Radiology and Ultrasound. – 2011. – Vol. 52, № 5. – Р. 555-559. VI. Garcia, D.A.A., Froes, T.R. Errors in abdominal ultrasonography in dogs and cats // J. of Small Animal Practice. – 2012. Vol. 53. – № 9. – P. 514-519. VII. Garcia, D.A.A., Froes, T.R. Importance of fasting in preparing dogs for abdominal ultrasound examination of specific organs // J. of Small Animal Practice. – 2014. Vol. 55. – № 12. – P. 630-634. VIII. Gaschen, L., Granger, L.A., Oubre, O., Shannon, D., Kearney, M., Gaschen, F. The effects of food intake and its fat composition on intestinal echogenicity in healthy dogs // Veterinary Radiology and Ultrasound. 2016. Vol. 57. № 5. P. 546-550 IX. Gaschen, L., Kircher, P., Stussi, A., Allenspach, K., Gaschen, F., Doherr, M., Grone, A. Comparison of ultrasonographic findings with clinical activity index (CIBDAI) and diagnosis in dogs with chronic enteropathies // Veterinary radiology and ultrasound. – 2008. – Vol. 49. – № 1. – Р. 56-64. X. Gil, E.M.U. Garcia, D.A.A. Froes, T.R. In utero development of the fetal intestine : Sonographic evaluation and correlation with gestational age and fetal maturity in dogs // Theriogenology. 2015. Vol. 84, №5. Р. 681-686. XI. Gladwin, N.E. Penninck, D.G., Webster, C.R.L. Ultrasonographic evaluation of the thickness of the wall layers in the intestinal tract of dogs // American Journal of Veterinary Research. 2014. Vol. 75, №4. Р. 349-353. XII. Gory, G., Rault, D.N., Gatel, L, Dally, C., Belli, P., Couturier, L., Cauvin, E. Ultrasonographic characteristics of the abdominal esophagus and cardia in dogs // Veterinary Radiology and Ultrasound. 2014. Vol. 55, № 5. P. 552-560. XIII. Günther, C.S. Lautenschläger, I.E., Scholz, V.B. Assessment of the inter- and intraobserver variability for sonographical measurement of intestinal wall thickness in dogs without gastrointestinal diseases | [Inter-und Intraobserver-Variabilitätbei der sonographischenBestimmung der Darmwanddicke von HundenohnegastrointestinaleErkrankungen] // Tierarztliche Praxis Ausgabe K : Kleintiere – Heimtiere. 2014. Vol. 42 №2. Р. 71-78. XIV. Hanazono, K., Fukumoto, S., Hirayama, K., Takashima, K., Yamane, Y., Natsuhori, M., Kadosawa, T., Uchide, T. Predicting Metastatic Potential of gastrointestinal stromal tumors in dog by ultrasonography // J. of Veterinary Medical Science. – 2012. Vol. 74. – № 11. – P. 1477-1482. XV. Heng, H.G., Lim, Ch.K., Miller, M.A., Broman, M.M.Prevalence and significance of an ultrasonographic colonic muscularishyperechoic band paralleling the serosal layer in dogs // Veterinary Radiology and Ultrasound. 2015. Vol. 56 № 6. P. 666-669. XVI. Ivančić, M., Mai, W. Qualitative and quantitative comparison of renal vs. hepatic ultrasonographic intensity in healthy dogs // Veterinary Radiology and Ultrasound. 2008. Vol. 49. № 4. Р. 368-373. XVII. Lamb, C.R., Mantis, P. Ultrasonographic features of intestinal intussusception in 10 dogs // J. of Small Animal Practice. – 2008. Vol. 39. – № 9. – P. 437-441. XVIII. Le Roux, A. B., Granger, L.A., Wakamatsu, N, Kearney, M.T., Gaschen, L.Ex vivo correlation of ultrasonographic small intestinal wall layering with histology in dogs // Veterinary Radiology and Ultrasound.2016. Vol. 57. № 5. P. 534-545. XIX. Nielsen, T. High-frequency ultrasound of Peyer’s patches in the small intestine of young cats / T. Nielsen [et al.] // Journal of Feline Medicine and Surgery. – 2015. – Vol. 18, № 4. – Р. 303-309. XX. PenninckD.G. Gastrointestinal tract. In Nyland T.G., Mattoon J.S. (eds) : Small Animal Diagnostic Ultrasound. Philadelphia : WB Saunders. 2002, 2nd ed. Р. 207-230. XXI. PenninckD.G. Gastrointestinal tract. In : PenninckD.G.,d´Anjou M.A. Atlas of Small Animal Ultrasonography. Blackwell Publishing, Iowa. 2008. Р. 281-318. XXII. Penninck, D.G., Nyland, T.G., Kerr, L.Y., Fisher, P.E. Ultrasonographic evaluation of gastrointestinal diseases in small animals // Veterinary Radiology. 1990. Vol. 31. №3. P. 134-141. XXIII. Penninck, D.G.,Webster, C.R.L.,Keating, J.H. The sonographic appearance of intestinal mucosal fibrosis in cats // Veterinary Radiology and Ultrasound. – 2010. – Vol. 51, № 4. – Р. 458-461. XXIV. Pollard, R.E.,Johnson, E.G., Pesavento, P.A., Baker, T.W., Cannon, A.B., Kass, P.H., Marks, S.L. Effects of corn oil administered orally on conspicuity of ultrasonographic small intestinal lesions in dogs with lymphangiectasia // Veterinary Radiology and Ultrasound. 2013. Vol. 54. № 4. P. 390-397. XXV. Rault, D.N., Besso, J.G., Boulouha, L., Begon, D., Ruel, Y. Significance of a common extended mucosal interface observed in transverse small intestine sonograms // Veterinary Radiology and Ultrasound. 2004. Vol. 45. №2. Р. 177-179. XXVI. Sutherland-Smith, J., Penninck, D.G., Keating, J.H., Webster, C.R.L. Ultrasonographic intestinal hyperechoic mucosal striations in dogs are associated with lacteal dilation // Veterinary Radiology and Ultrasound. – 2007. Vol. 48. – № 1. – P. 51-57. View | Download EVALUATION OF ADAPTIVE POTENTIAL IN MEDICAL STUDENTS IN THE CONTEXT OF SEASONAL DYNAMICS Authors : Larisa A. Merdenova,Elena A. Takoeva,Marina I. Nartikoeva,Victoria A. Belyayeva,Fatima S. Datieva,Larisa R. Datieva, DOI : https://doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.spl.10/2020.06.00046 Abstract : The aim of this work was to assess the functional reserves of the body to quantify individual health ; adaptation, psychophysiological characteristics of the health quality of medical students in different seasons of the year. When studying the temporal organization of physiological functions, the rhythm parameters of physiological functions were determined, followed by processing the results using the Cosinor Analysis program, which reveals rhythms with an unknown period for unequal observations, evaluates 5 parameters of sinusoidal rhythms (mesor, amplitude, acrophase, period, reliability). The essence of desynchronization is the mismatch of circadian rhythms among themselves or destruction of the rhythms architectonics (instability of acrophases or their disappearance). Desynchronization with respect to the rhythmic structure of the body is of a disregulatory nature, most pronounced in pathological desynchronization. High neurotism, increased anxiety reinforces the tendency to internal desynchronization, which increases with stress. During examination stress, students experience a decrease in the stability of the temporary organization of the biosystem and the tension of adaptive mechanisms develops, which affects attention, mental performance and the quality of adaptation to the educational process. Time is shortened and the amplitude of the “initial minute” decreases, personal and situational anxiety develops, and the level of psychophysiological adaptation decreases. The results of the work are priority because they can be used in assessing quality and level of health. Keywords : Desynchronosis,biorhythms,psycho-emotional stress,mesor,acrophase,amplitude,individual minute, Refference : I. Arendt, J., Middleton, B. Human seasonal and circadian studies in Antarctica (Halley, 75_S) – General and Comparative Endocrinology. 2017 : 250-259. (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ygcen.2017.05.010). II. BalandinYu.P. A brief methodological guide on the use of the agro-industrial complex “Health Sources” / Yu.P. Balandin, V.S. Generalov, V.F. Shishlov. Ryazan, 2007. III. Buslovskaya L.K. Adaptation reactions in students at exam stress/ L.K. Buslovskaya, Yu.P. Ryzhkova. Scientific bulletin of Belgorod State University. Series : Natural Sciences. 2011;17(21):46-52. IV. Chutko L. S. Sindromjemocionalnogovygoranija – Klinicheskie I psihologicheskieaspekty./ L.S Chutko. Moscow : MEDpress-inform, 2013. V. Eroshina K., Paul Wilkinson, Martin Mackey. The role of environmental and social factors in the occurrence of diseases of the respiratory tract in children of primary school age in Moscow. Medicine. 2013:57-71. VI. Fagrell B. “Microcirculation of the Skin”. The physiology and pharmacology of the microcirculation. 2013:423. VII. Gurova O.A. Change in blood microcirculation in students throughout the day. New research. 2013 ; 2 (35):66-71. VIII. Khetagurova L.G. – Stress/Ed. L.G. Khetagurov. Vladikavkaz : Project-Press Publishing House, 2010. IX. Khetagurova L.G., Urumova L.T. et al. 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A comparative analysis of the constitutional features of various generations of healthy young men and women in the Rostov Region. Modern problems of science and education. 2017 ; 5:50-59. XIV. Mathias Adamsson1, ThorbjörnLaike, Takeshi Morita – Annual variation in daily light expo-sure and circadian change of melatonin and cortisol consent rations at a northern latitude with large seasonal differences in photoperiod length – Journal of Physiological Anthropology. 2017 ; 36 : 6 – 15. XV. Merdenova L.A., Tagaeva I.R., Takoeva E.A. Features of the study of biological rhythms in children. The results of fundamental and applied research in the field of natural and technical sciences. Materials of the International Scientific and Practical Conference. Belgorod, 2017, pp. 119-123. XVI. Ogarysheva N.V. The dynamics of mental performance as a criterion for adapting to the teaching load. Bulletin of the Samara Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 2014;16:5 (1) : S.636-638. 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The difference between active and passive qualitative comparison is shown, two triadic models of passive and active comparison and models for comparing two and three objects are described. Triadic comparison models are proposed as an alternative to dyadic comparison models. Comparison allows finding the common and the different ; this approach is proposed for the analysis of the nomothetic and ideographic method of obtaining knowledge. The nomothetic method identifies and evaluates the general, while the ideographic method searches for unique in parameters and in combinations of parameters. Triadic comparison is used in systems and methods of argumentation, as well as in the analysis of consistency/inconsistency. Keywords : Comparative analysis,dyad,triad,triadic model,comparability relation,object comparison,attributive comparison,nomothetic method,ideographic method, Refference : I. 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Transit traffic analysis zone delineating method based on Thiessen polygon. Sustainability 6(4) (2014) 1821{1832. View | Download DEVELOPING TECHNOLOGY OF CREATING WEAR-RESISTANT CERAMIC COATING FOR ICE CYLINDER ». JOURNAL OF MECHANICS OF CONTINUA AND MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES spl10, n^o 1 (28 juin 2020). http://dx.doi.org/10.26782/jmcms.spl.10/2020.06.00048.

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