Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Population projection, Italy »

The basic descriptive epidemiologic data on stomach cancer occurrence in Italian regions are presented and discussed. Incidence and prevalence were estimated from official mortality and survival data provided by four population-based Italian cancer registries. Age-adjusted mortality, incidence, and prevalence rates are presented by region for the year 1990. Time trends of incidence and their projection for the year 2000 are also presented by region and three broad age classes. Althrough the occurence of stomach cancer has been decreasing in Italy and most western countries over the last decades, a substantial slowing down of this decrease was evidenced in Italy, especially for women under 65 and for the regions of southern Italy. A marked tendency towards a reduction of geographic heterogeneity in stomach cancer occurrence was also shown. Such a phenomenon is consistent with the observed changes of dietary habits in Italian regions. The regions of Umbria and The Marches seem to emerge as new areas at relatively high risk of stomach cancer incidence and mortality. About 45,000 prevalent cases were estimated in Italy by 1990, half of which have been diagnosed before 1984.

Abstract Abstract 4782 Background: Hodgkin lymphoma represents 11.7% of all types of lymphoma diagnosed in 2011. (Leukemia and Lymphoma Society) In 2012, an estimated 9,060 of new HL cases and 1,190 deaths will occur in North America and mostly in either young adults between 15 and 30 years of age, or after the age of 45. (American Cancer Society) The five-year relative survival rate for all patients with HL is 86.3% from 2001 to 2007 and 92.8% for patients less than 45 years at diagnosis. (SEER Review) Initial treatment of HL depends on the stage of the disease at diagnosis. Chemotherapy with or without radiation therapy is the most common treatment approach for HL patients. Stem cell transplantation and chemotherapy are the treatment options for patients with relapse disease. There is lack of published data on the distribution of patients across lines of therapy as well as percentage of relapsed and refractory patients. Understanding the distribution of patients across lines of therapy is critical to identify the unmet need and to help tailor future therapies. Methods: Epidemiological data was obtained for US and EU using the 'epic oncology' 2012 database (Epiphany Partners Inc.). The database includes line of therapy estimations using an advanced patient flow model combining survival by subset and course of treatment, response rates and outcomes, and treatment data from US and EU cancer registries coupled with primary research with a representative sample of physicians and secondary therapeutic reviews. We analyzed projection estimates up to 2020 across US and EU5 countries by line of therapy with specific attention to relapsed/refractory patients. These projection estimates are based on the current treatment options and does not account for introduction of future therapies. Refractory patients are defined as those who do not respond (do not go into remission) following therapy. Relapsed Patients are defined as those who have responded to therapy (enter remission) but re-enter the treatment population at a later stage due to progression of their cancer, recurrence of diagnostic markers, or symptomatology. Results: Projection estimates from 2010 to 2020 by line of therapy varied by country. Among EU countries, the highest number of treated HL patients was in France, followed by Italy and Spain. By 2020, the percentage of patients that are either relapsed or refractory to first, second and third line of therapy will increase by about 25% in US and by about 15% in EU. Regional variation observed across Europe are as follows: an increase by 38% in Spain, 25% in France, 12% in UK and 6% in Italy, while Germany will show a decline of 2%, this is due to a continuous decline in incidence rates since the early 1990s. Drug treated Hodgkin lymphoma population by line of therapy*: Conclusions: Due to the highly chemosensitive nature of the malignancy, only about 25% of Hodgkin lymphoma patients progress to a second line therapy and 30% of those move into third line. Smaller sample sizes, variation in growth rate among US and EU countries, and a bimodal incidence curve could cause differences in projection trends. The creation of a Hodgkin's disease based registry can help in validating emerging trends in therapy through providing up to date global projection estimates across line of therapy. Our results provide a global understanding of the HL patient population distribution across lines of therapy and are critical to identify the unmet need and guide future therapies in HL patients. Disclosures: Mehta: Sanofi: Employment. Abbe:Sanofi: Employment, Equity Ownership. Trask:Sanofi: Employment. Neumann:Sanofi-aventis: Employment. Hamed:Sanofi: Employment.

This article analyses how the number of speakers of the Friulian language changes over time in the territory where this language is traditionally spoken, that is, the provinces of Udine, Pordenone, and Gorizia, located in the north-east of Italy in the autonomous region of Friuli-Venezia Giulia. The aim of this research is twofold. First, it illustrates how the number of speakers of Friulian evolved over the past 40 years. To this end, we provide an overview of the findings of empirical studies on the Friulian language from 1977, 1998, and 2014. We complement these findings with population figures, birth and death rates, as well as data on migration and language transmission in order to provide a better understanding of the current situation in the three provinces. Second, these data are used to set up a mathematical language dynamic (or language competition) model. With the help of this empirically informed model, we derive projections for the future of the Friulian language in the three provinces. The results show that the number of Friulian speakers will decrease from 600,000 in 2014 to about 530,000 in 2050 (−11%), and that the number of regular Friulian speakers will decreases from 420,000 to 320,000 (−23%). By 2050, about 30% of the population will speak Friulian regularly and about 50% will speak Friulian regularly or occasionally. Only in the province of Udine will Friulian speakers still be in a clear majority. The analysis suggests that a stronger commitment to language policy protecting and promoting Friulian is needed in order to counteract these trends.

Abstract Abstract 5074 Background NHL is the 10th most common cancer worldwide, and a major cause of cancer-related deaths despite major advances in therapy (GLOBOCAN 2008). It encompasses a heterogeneous group of hematological malignancies originating in lymphoid tissue, mainly B lymphocytes (B-cell NHL) with an overall 5-year survival of 50–60%. There is lack of published data on the distribution of patients across lines of therapy and by subtype. Method Epidemiological data was obtained for US and EU using the 'epic oncology' 2012 database (Epiphany Partners Inc.). The database includes line of therapy estimations using an advanced patient flow model combining survival by subset and course of treatment, response rates and outcomes, and treatment data from U. S. and EU cancer registries coupled with primary research with a representative sample of physicians and secondary therapeutic reviews. We analyzed projection estimates up to 2020 across US and EU5 countries by subtype and line of therapy with specific attention to relapsed/refractory patients. Refractory patients are those who do not respond (do not go into remission) following therapy. Relapsed patients are defined as those who have responded to therapy (enter remission) who then re-enter the treatment population due to progression of their cancer, recurrence of diagnostic markers, or symptomatology. Result Projection estimates from 2010 to 2020 by line of therapy varied by country. Among EU countries the highest number of treated patients was in Italy followed by Germany and UK. By 2020, the percentage of patients that will have relapsed and/or be refractory to all lines of therapy will increase by about 35% in US and 11% in EU with regional variation observed among France (18%), Italy (15. 2%), Spain (3%), and UK (18%). In both the US and EU, about 30% of patients relapse and 20% are refractory after 1st line treatment. In 2nd as well as 3rd line, about 35% relapse or are refractory after treatment in the respective lines. In the US, the percent increase from 2010 to 2020 by line of therapy (1st, 2nd, 3rd) is greatest for MCL patients (55, 58, 59%) followed by FL (40, 49, 41%) and DLBCL (28, 33, and 36%). Epidemiology projection trends for US and EU by line of therapy and sub type Conclusion Due to the indolent or aggressive nature of NHL, the proportion of patients who will progress from 1st line to 2nd line therapy varies between 35% in US and 29% in EU based on current treatment options. This, along with the high percentage of relapsed and refractory patients in 2nd or higher lines argues for continued efforts to be made for the development of more efficacious treatments for NHL. The observed three fold difference between US and EU increase could be due to an increased incidence in recent historical years or an association between one or more of the risk factors, such as hepatitis C, which is more common in US or autoimmune disorders such as HIV. Real world data and disease based registries can help in validating emerging trends in therapy through providing up to date global projection estimates across line of therapy. Disclosures: Trask: Sanofi: Employment. Mehta:Sanofi: Employment. Abbe:Sanofi: Employment, Equity Ownership. RuizSoto:Sanofi: Employment.

Context Precise and accurate methods are essential to assess wildlife populations for sound management. We surveyed a managed population of fallow deer (Dama dama) in a Mediterranean environment in Italy, where this non-native ungulate has a negative impact on biodiversity. Aims We compare nocturnal distance-sampling (deer are detected by thermal imagery at night) population estimates with demographic projections of the same population. Methods We estimated natural survival in fawns (0.86), yearlings (0.83), adult males (0.70) and adult females (0.90) using capture–mark–recapture. By integrating survival estimates with population structure, reproductive traits and harvest data, we performed demographic projections. We performed nocturnal distance sampling on foot by using a thermal imagery once a year (in autumn) from 2001 to 2005. We walked 75–77 km (71 transects) per each survey. Key results We showed that our survey design met distance-sampling assumptions. Distance sampling and demographic projections yielded similar and precise (12.6% < CV <24.1%) population estimates, showing a decreasing (–164.64 deer year–1) population trend from 2755 deer in 2001 to 1877 in 2005. Conclusions We showed that nocturnal distance sampling is useful to monitor wild deer populations in forests effectively and that it represents a cost-effective tool to develop sounded management policy for this non-native species. We also provided, for the first time, a comprehensive stochastic population model for fallow deer in a Mediterranean environment. Using these population estimates, managers could reduce fallow deer population size to a level compatible with the conservation of the endangered Italian roe deer and improve forest regeneration. Implications Nocturnal distance sampling can be used to assess ungulate population living in dense forested habitats effectively and efficiently.

The relation which ties the sociodemographic phenomena to the reference population of a given territory, is the representative essence of every social organism. Hence, there is the statistical need to get as many data as possible, as they become essential when you must make a decision that will influence the future choices of any human aggregation. The goal of the present contribution is to make population projections of the city of Bari (South Italy), studied by sex and age, aimed at knowing the future social effects through the analysis of the natural components (fecundity, mortality) and the social ones (migrations) of the studied population.

Abstract Aims To estimate prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a representative sample of the Italian elderly population, projecting figures for Italy and the European Union. Methods and results A cross-sectional examination of all subjects aged 65+ years from three general practices in Northern, Central, and Southern Italy started in 2016. Participants were administered a systematic and an opportunistic screening, followed by clinical and electrocardiogram confirmation. The study sample included 6016 subjects. Excluding 235 non-eligible, among the remaining 5781 participation was 78.3%, which left 4528 participants (mean age 74.5 ± 6.8 years, 47.2% men). Prevalence of AF was 7.3% [95% confidence intervals (CI) 6.6–8.1], higher in men and with advancing age (6.6% from systematic plus 0.7% from opportunistic screening). Using prevalence figures, Italian elderly having AF in 2016 were estimated at ∼1 081 000 (95% CI 786 000–1 482 000). Considering stable prevalence, this number will increase by 75% to ∼1 892 000 in 2060 (95% CI 1 378 000–2 579 000). European Union elderly having AF in 2016 were estimated at ∼7 617 000 (95% CI 5 530 000–10 460 000), increasing by 89% to ∼14 401 000 in 2060 (95% CI 10 489 000–19 647 000). In 2016, subjects aged 80+ years represented 53.5% of cases in Italy and 51.2% in the European Union; in 2060, 69.6% and 65.2%, respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicate a high burden of AF in coming decades, especially among the oldest-old, who carry the higher AF-related risk of stroke and medical complications.

Abstract Objective To analyse the impact and repercussions of the surge in healthcare demand in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, assess the potential effectiveness of various infection/disease control measures, and make projections on the best approach to exit from the current lockdown. Design A four-compartment model was constructed for SARS-CoV-2 infection based on the Wuhan data and validated with data collected in Italy, the UK, and the US. The model captures the effectiveness of various disease suppression measures in three modifiable factors: (a) the per capita contact rate (β) that can be lowered by means of social distancing, (b) infection probability upon contacting infectious individuals that can be lowered by wearing facemasks, personal hygiene, etc., and (c) the population of infectious individuals in contact with the susceptible population, which can be lowered by quarantine. The model was used to make projections on the best approach to exit from the current lockdown. Results The model was applied to evaluate the epidemiological data and hospital burden in Italy, the UK, and the US. The control measures were identified as the key drivers for the observed epidemiological data through sensitivity analyses. Analysing the different lockdown exit strategies showed that a lockdown exit strategy with a combination of social separation/general facemask use may work, but this needs to be supported by intense monitoring which would allow re-introduction/tightening of the control measures if the number of new infected subjects increases again. Conclusions and relevance Governments should act early in a swift and decisive manner for containment policies. Any lockdown exit will need to be monitored closely, with regards to the potential of lockdown reimplementation. This mathematical model provides a framework for major pandemics in the future.

The demographic projections have recently become a crucial issue of the demographers’ work, due to the increase of requests, due to the usefulness for the decision-makers and for planning purposes and due to the possibility for them to be used like inputs for other models that study particular aspects related to the population’s structure and to changes in the composition and size of households (pollution, housing, water and food demand…). The knowledge of the future population structure is unavoidable for planning purpose, but is not sufficient. In our society, households constitute a crucial unit of demand for a variety of goods and services, such as housing, transportation and consumption. They represent an essential statistical unit of analysis when dealing with some issues such as the migration projects, the child care and elderly care needs, the per capita greenhouse gas emissions, etc. (Wilson, 2013). In this perspective, both the projected number and the types of household are often required for the purposes of planning and policy making. The aim of this thesis is the review of the forecasting models and a critical analysis of past experiences in order to analyse the international state of the art to define a specific household projection model for Italy.

Water is the driving force in nature. We use water for washing cars, doing laundry, cooking, taking a shower, but also to generate energy and electricity. Therefore water is a necessary product in our daily lives (USGS. Howard Perlman, 2013). The model that we created is based on the urban water demand computer model from the Pacific Institute (California). With this model we will forecast the future urban water use of Emilia Romagna up to the year of 2030. We will analyze the urban water demand in Emilia Romagna that includes the 9 provinces: Bologna, Ferrara, Forli-Cesena, Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Ravenna, Reggio Emilia and Rimini. The term urban water refers to the water used in cities and suburbs and in homes in the rural areas. This will include the residential, commercial, institutional and the industrial use. In this research, we will cover the water saving technologies that can help to save water for daily use. We will project what influence these technologies have to the urban water demand, and what it can mean for future urban water demands. The ongoing climate change can reduce the snowpack, and extreme floods or droughts in Italy. The changing climate and development patterns are expected to have a significant impact on water demand in the future. We will do this by conducting different scenario analyses, by combining different population projections, climate influence and water saving technologies. In addition, we will also conduct a sensitivity analyses. The several analyses will show us how future urban water demand is likely respond to changes in water conservation technologies, population, climate, water price and consumption. I hope the research can contribute to the insight of the reader’s thoughts and opinion.

This work performs a counterfactual analysis on unemployment dynamics in Italy during the year 2020. In doing so, ARIMA models are estimated and used to make projections for the 2020 quarters. This exercise is performed at population level and for each gender, age and educational groups. Data are from the Italian Labor Force Survey covering the years 2015-2019 at quarterly frequency. Over the quarters of the year 2020, i.e. a time period covered by the Covid-19 pandemic and related restrictions, actual and counterfactual unemployment dynamics are compared. Overall, this work tries to answer to the following question: what would have happened to unemployment dynamics if Covid-19 pandemic and related restrictions would not arise as they did? Results can be informative to policymakers if the ARIMA projections can represent a reference for the aftermath of the pandemic.