Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Political science – European Union countries »
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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Political science – European Union countries"
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Jeannet, Anne-Marie, Tobias Heidland et Martin Ruhs. « What asylum and refugee policies do Europeans want ? Evidence from a cross-national conjoint experiment ». European Union Politics 22, no 3 (23 avril 2021) : 353–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/14651165211006838.
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The protection of asylum seekers and refugees has become one of the most politically divisive issues in the European Union, yet there has been a lack of research on public preferences for asylum and refugee policies. This article analyzes which policies Europeans prefer and why. We advance a theoretical framework that explains how asylum and refugee policies that use limits and conditions enable individuals to resolve conflicting humanitarian and perceived national interest logics. Using an original conjoint experiment in eight countries, we demonstrate that Europeans prefer policies that provide refugee protection but also impose control through limits or conditions. In contrast to the divisive political debates between European Union member states, we find consistent public preferences across European countries.
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Economou, Athina, et Christos Kollias. « Terrorism and Political Self-Placement in European Union Countries ». Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy 21, no 2 (1 avril 2015) : 217–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/peps-2014-0036.
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AbstractStudies have shown that citizens’ risk-perceptions and risk-assessment are affected by large scale terrorist acts. Reported evidence shows that individuals are often willing to trade-off civil liberties for enhanced security particularly as a post-terrorist attack reaction as well as adopting more conservative views. Within this strand of the literature, this paper examines whether terrorism and in particular mass-casualty terrorist attacks affect citizens’ political self-placement on the left-right scale of the political spectrum. To this effect the Eurobarometer surveys for 12 European Union countries are utilized and ordered logit models are employed for the period 1985–2010 with over 230,000 observations used in the estimations. On balance, the findings reported herein seem to be pointing to a shift in respondents’ self-positioning towards the right of the political spectrum.
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Gregor, Jiří. « Political Budget Cycles in the European Union ». Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 64, no 2 (2016) : 595–601. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201664020595.
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This paper provides research on the theme of the political budget cycles. The goal is to find out whether or not the government tries to manipulate the state budget and its components for the purpose of re-election across the countries of the European Union. In order to verify this theory a dynamic panel data model was used. The results were significant, but only if predetermined elections were not counted into the estimations. In that case, the theory of the political budget cycles could be accepted as valid for the EU countries. The main driving force of the political budget cycles across the countries of the European Union is fluctuation of the government expenditures. During the election year, the government expenditures are higher, and a year after the election, government expenditures are lower. This is reflected into the state budget balance.
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Elbashir, Rania. « LIBYA'S FOREIGN TRADE WITH EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES ». MEST Journal 10, no 2 (15 juillet 2022) : 64–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.12709/mest.10.10.02.07.
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The subject of this empirical and theoretical work is the exchange of foreign trade in Libya with the countries of the European Union. The scientific objective of the research is to make a scientific classification of the volume of foreign trade between Libya and the European Union countries and to discover the factors that hinder foreign trade and explain them scientifically. European countries also support this cooperation and contribute significantly to the formulation of future cooperation policies with Libya in various social, political, and economic fields. However, this cooperation takes place in light of objective difficulties arising from the conflicting interests of Western countries in North Africa and Libya. Since these relations are burdened with many problems of different nature, we started this paper from two assumptions: The first premise is that in the trade relations between Libya and the European Union, there are common interests for foreign trade that are more feasible. The second premise is that more encouragement and protection for investments by the countries of the European Union helps in new qualitative development and economic growth in Libya, which will significantly improve trade relations between Libya and the countries of the European Union.
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Doronina, Olha. « LIFELONG LEARNING STRATEGIES IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ». Grail of Science, no 16 (11 juillet 2022) : 471–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.36074/grail-of-science.17.06.2022.074.
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A traditional definition of lifelong learning is “all learning activity conducted throughout life with the goal of enhancing knowledge, skills, and competences within a personal, civic, societal, or employment-related viewpoint” (European Commission, 2001). Over the years, the European Union has placed a strong emphasis on the development of the knowledge triangle "education, innovation, and research," as well as the development of skills. Lifelong learning has been deemed a high political priority by numerous EU organizations with a series of decisions and resolutions (European Commission, 2021). It has been acknowledged that to ensure an individual's life development and self-fulfillment, it is vital to regularly update knowledge and competences as a result of increasing skill differentiation and globalization.
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Mejlgaard, Niels. « Science’s disparate responsibilities : Patterns across European countries ». Public Understanding of Science 27, no 3 (12 août 2017) : 262–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0963662517724645.
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It is a distinctive feature of European science policy that science is expected to meet economic and broader societal objectives simultaneously. Science should be governed democratically and take significant responsibilities towards the economy, the political system and civil society, but the coherency of these multiple claims is underexplored. Using metrics that emerge from both quantitative and qualitative studies, we examine the interrelatedness of different responsibilities at the level of countries. A total of 33 European Union member states and associated countries are included in the analysis. We find no trade-off between economic and broader societal contributions. Europe is, however, characterised by major divisions in terms of the location of science in society. There is a significant East–West divide, and Europe appears to be far from accomplishing an integrated European Research Area.
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Marrese, Michael. « CMEA : effective but cumbersome political economy ». International Organization 40, no 2 (1986) : 287–327. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020818300027156.
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The Council for Mutual Economic Assistance is primarily a forum for bilateral bargaining between the Soviet Union and each of the other CMEA countries. The bilateral negotiations are conducted with tremendous concern for Soviet long-term preferences and for the short-term economic-political stability of East European countries. The CMEA provides the Soviet Union with an effective but cumbersome politico-economic policy-making apparatus that is becoming less effective and increasingly cumbersome over time. From the East European perspective, the CMEA tends to solidify the positions of the East European leaders yet generate long-term economic costs. What are the preferences upon which the CMEA is constructed? How are CMEA characteristics related to these preferences? What are the economic costs and benefits to member countries in static and dynamic terms? Why have costs for all member countries risen over time? How is intra-CMEA trade likely to change during the next decade?
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Lodge, Juliet. « European Union and the EFTA countries : enlargement and integration ». International Affairs 71, no 1 (janvier 1995) : 169. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2624064.
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Gänzle, Stefan, Dominic Stead, Franziska Sielker et Tobias Chilla. « Macro-regional Strategies, Cohesion Policy and Regional Cooperation in the European Union : Towards a Research Agenda ». Political Studies Review 17, no 2 (13 juin 2018) : 161–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1478929918781982.
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Since 2009, the European Union has developed strategies for the Baltic Sea, Danube, Adriatic-Ionian and Alpine macro-regions. These macro-regional strategies represent a new tool of European Union governance that seeks to combine the community’s territorial cooperation and cohesion policy repertoire with intergovernmental ‘regional cooperation’ involving European Union member and partner countries. By establishing comprehensive governance architectures for cross-sectoral and trans-boundary policy coordination in areas such as transport infrastructure and environmental protection, macro-regional strategies seek to mobilise European Union member and non-member states alike in promoting and harmonising territorial and trans-governmental cooperation. Both the macro-regional strategies and the macro-regions themselves have been met with increasing interest across several disciplines, including geography, regional planning, political science and public administration, triggering questions and debates on issues such as their impacts on existing practices of territorial cooperation and their relation to previously established forms of regional cooperation. Authored by scholars based in the above-mentioned fields of study, this contribution seeks to take stock of research on the subject to date, reflect on conceptual starting points and highlight new directions for future research in the political sciences.
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Tikhova, VLADLENA V. « DEVELOPMENT OF MILITARY AND POLITICAL COOPERATION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION (1945-1992) ». Journal of Law and Administration 17, no 1 (29 avril 2021) : 3–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.24833/2073-8420-2021-1-58-3-12.
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Introduction. This paper analyzes the history of development of the European Union’s political and military cooperation. The author gives an in-depth review of the origins of the European integration, its reasons and key political figures who played the crucial role in this process. The author shows that the establishment of cooperation between West European countries right after 1945 dealt with projects that were not implemented. Much attention is paid to the activities of the Western European Union (WEU) that played a considerable role in shaping the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union. The article also presentshow different the members of the European Union are, how the views of the European countries vary in many areas and how difficult it is to coordinate the positions of the member-states on important issues concerning the foreign, security and defense policy of the European Union.Materials and methods. Building on the system analysis of the theories of international relations, international integration and the materials of related sciences such as political and conflict resolution studies the author considers the development stages of the European countries’ political and military collaboration from the establishment of the EuropeanDefense Community to the European Political Cooperation.Results. Proceeding from the results of the analysis the author concludes that the activities aimed to build military and political collaboration of the European states had laid a solid foundation to establish the second pillar of the EU - the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) by the time the Maastricht Treaty was signed in 1992.Discussion and conclusions. The materialsof this paper describe the stages and historicalroots of the development of the military and political collaboration of the European countries. Complexities and contradictions that are inherent in this process explain the challenges the EU’s current foreign, security and defense policies have to face.
Thèses sur le sujet "Political science – European Union countries"
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Bubpasiri, Tipparat. « The fifth enlargement of the European Union : the accession of Central and Eastern European countries ». Thesis, University of Exeter, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.302543.
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Prosser, Christopher. « Rethinking representation and European integration ». Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:1f596c7e-bfb9-43ff-b3e8-2de716f234ec.
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In representative democracy the chain of political legitimacy runs from voters to governments through votes cast at elections. In order for representation to occur, political parties must offer distinct policy platforms that citizens consider in their vote choices. This thesis examines whether citizens are adequately represented within the European Union. It finds that although representation on left-right issues occurs, it does not occur for European integration preferences. Over the course its history, European integration has changed from being primarily an economic issue to a social issue. This separation from the primary axis of political competition has increased the need for representation on EU issues directly. Political parties have polarised over European integration providing increased choice, but voters have not engaged with the issue. Examining how voters process party signals about policy positions shows that very few are affected by signals on the EU. Accounting for voters' cognitive biases suggests that the influence of EU issues in European Parliament elections has been overestimated and is non-existent in most member-states. As direct democracy might offer an alternative to inadequate representation this thesis examines why referendums have been held on the EU but finds that they are largely driven by governments' desire to contain the threat of EU issues at national elections, further undermining representation. However, as a result of institutional differences between national and European Parliament elections rather than the emergence of the EU as an electoral issue, the size of party systems at European Parliament elections has grown considerably over successive elections in many member-states, a change that has fed into national party systems. Although representation on EU issues is inadequate, the expansion of European party systems and the redrawing of the lines of political competition offers some hope that representation on EU issues might improve in the future.
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Bjugan, Ketil. « Europe's divided north : a comparative analysis of the conflict over European Union membership in four Nordic countries ». Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1999. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1516/.
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This thesis is a comparative analysis of how the conflict over membership in the European Union (EU) affected people and parties in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden) between 1985 and 1997. The purpose of the thesis is to analyse how and why a) the people, and b) the political parties in these four countries have reacted to the prospect of membership - or, in the case of Denmark, continued membership - in the EU. The thesis is divided into two main sections. Section one consists of three theoretical chapters. Chapter one explains why European integration has conflict potential in the Nordic countries, and why this conflict has increased in salience since the mid-1980's. Chapter two outlines and develops a political cleavage model. This has two purposes; firstly, to explain the nature of the Nordic party systems; secondly, to outline social, ideological and institutional limitations to the effect of the conflict over EU membership on the party systems of these countries. Chapter three develops two models derived from rational choice theory. The first assesses how EU membership might be expected to affect the utility of individual citizens. The second focuses on how political parties might be expected to react to the prospect of (continued) EU-membership. Chapters four to seven (section two) assess the explanatory power of the models developed in chapters two and three for each of the countries concerned, by analysing the hypothesised effects of the EU-conflict on individual utility and on the party systems. Chapter eight compares the results of chapters four to seven. Finally, the conclusion assesses the heuristic value of the methods employed, and the implications for theory. In summary, it is argued that, firstly, expected consequences for individual economic utility and left-right ideological position are the most important variables for explaining differences in attitude to membership, both within each country and between the four countries. Secondly, for the majority of parties the increased salience of this conflict complicates their strategy, in particular with regard to the ability to pursue vote maximisation and office maximisation simultaneously. A partial solution is to off-load the EU-conflict away from national elections. This explains in large part why in each of the countries the EU-conflict has been off-loaded from the arena of national elections to that of referendums and elections to the European Parliament.
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Palmer, James Robert. « Science and politics in European energy and environmental policy : the wicked problem of biofuels and indirect land-use change (ILUC) ». Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2013. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.608217.
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Teusch, Jonas. « Supranational assurance : how European Union membership clears the way for political decentralization in countries with secessionist potential ». Thesis, McGill University, 2011. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=103773.
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Political decentralization is in vogue. However, it is not clear what political incentives central governments should have to give up authority. Thus, the question guiding this thesis is under what conditions and why central governments shift authority to subunits. The existing literature does not specify the cost-benefit calculus that could underlie such a decision, merely viewing decentralization as a reaction to increased demands for sub-national authority, which are believed to be the result of international trends such as Europeanization or globalization. Working with a sample of 42 industrial democracies that have been observed over a period of up to 40 years, I demonstrate that central governments pursue institutional reforms only under the condition that they are sufficiently reassured that granting autonomy to subunits will not threaten the territorial integrity of the nation-state. When this necessary condition is met, as is shown to be the case for European Union member states, state agents are mainly motivated by reaping the political benefits associated with reforming a malfunctioning political system or with accommodating sub-national demands.La décentralisation politique est en vogue. Toutefois, il n'apparait pas clairement quels incitatifs politiques motivent les gouvernements centraux à déléguer leur autorité. Par conséquent, ce mémoire de maîtrise se penche sur la question de savoir dans quelles conditions et pourquoi les gouvernements centraux cèdent de leur autorité aux gouvernements sous-nationaux. La littérature existante ne précise pas quel calcul coûts-bénéfices sous-tend une telle décision. Les recherches antérieures suggèrent plutôt que la décentralisation est une réaction à des demandes sous-nationales accrues qui sont censées être le résultat de tendances internationales comme l'européanisation ou la mondialisation. À partir d'un échantillon de 42 démocraties industrialisées observées sur une période allant jusqu'à 40 ans, je démontre que les gouvernements centraux poursuivent des réformes institutionnelles uniquement s'ils perçoivent que l'octroi d'autonomie aux gouvernements sous-nationaux ne menace pas l'intégrité territoriale de l'État-nation. Lorsque cette condition nécessaire est atteinte, comme c'est le cas dans les États membres de l'Union Européenne, les agents de l'État voient un intérêt dans la collecte des bénéfices politiques liés soit à la réforme d'un système politique dysfonctionnel, soit aux concessions accordées aux paliers gouvernementaux sous-nationaux.
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Blew, Dennis Jan. « The Europeanization of Political Parties : A Study of Political Parties in Poland 2009-2014 ». PDXScholar, 2015. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/2567.
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On May 1st 2004, Poland entered the European Union (EU), introducing new variables into the domestic politics of the Polish Republic. Since gaining its independence from Soviet control in 1989, Poland’s political landscape can be described as a dynamic and ever changing force towards democratic maturation. With the accession of Poland to the EU, questions of European integration and Europeanization have arisen, most specifically with how these two processes effect and shape the behaviors of domestic political actors.
With Poland entering its second decade of EU membership, this study attempts to explain how, and if, further European integration has had any effect on the Europeanization of political parties in Poland. Building upon the work of various scholars, most notably Aleks Szczerbiak, this study examines the years 2009-2014, and examines Poland’s political parties through Robert Ladrech’s framework of Europeanization.
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Aldrich, Andrea Stephanie. « "Ignorant and Confused?" Knowledge and Awareness as Determinants of Euroskepticism ». unrestricted, 2009. http://etd.gsu.edu/theses/available/etd-04152009-143419/.
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Thesis (M.A.)--Georgia State University, 2009.Title from file title page. William Downs, committee chair ; Jelena Subotic, Charles Hankla, committee members. Description based on contents viewed Sep. 28, 2009. Includes bibliographical references (p. 54-56).
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DAVITER, Falk. « The power of initiative : framing legislative policy conflicts in the European Union ». Doctoral thesis, European University Institute, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/7044.
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Defence date: 13 July 2007Examining Board: Prof. Adrienne Héritier, (European University Institute/SPS/RSCAS) ; Prof. Stefano Bartolini, (European University Institute/RSCAS) ; Prof. Ellen M. Immergut, (Humboldt University Berlin) ; Prof. Claudio Radaelli, (University of Exeter)
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digital archive of EUI PhD theses
This thesis asks how the framing of policy issues in EU legislative politics influences the way issues are processed, how it affects which interests play a role during policy drafting and deliberation, and what type of political conflicts and coalitions emerge as a result. Focusing in particular on the European Commission’s role in EU policy-making, this thesis goes on to investigate how actors in EU politics define and redefine the issues at stake according to their shifting policy agendas and in doing so attempt to shore up support and marginalise political opposition. Drawing on the empirical investigation of two decades of EU biotechnology policy-making, the thesis finds that the framing of policy issues systematically affects how the complex and fragmented EU political decision-making process involves or excludes different sets of actors and interests from the diverse political constituencies of the Union. It argues that the Commission’s role in structuring the EU policy space can at times be substantial. Yet the longitudinal perspective adopted in this study also reveals how the structuring and restructuring of the biotechnology policy space led to the increasing politicisation of the EU decision-making process. Eventually, the empirical investigation concludes, the Commission was unable to control the political dynamics set off by the reframing of the policy choices, and the resulting revision of the EU biotechnology policy framework ran counter to the Commission’s original policy objectives. This study thus provides fresh insights into the dynamics of policy-level politicisation and its effects on political conflict and competition in the EU. The framing perspective allows students of EU politics to trace how political agents and institutions interact to shape and at times exploit the complexities of EU policy-making in pursuit of their often conflicting agendas. Finally, the findings suggest that the key to conceptualising the scope of Commission agency in terms of systematic policy dynamics lies in exploring the interlocking effects of policy framing and EU politicisation in the political construction of interests at the supranational level.
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Hengari, Alfredo Tjiurimo. « A regional economic partnership agreement between SADC and the European Union within the Cotonou framework : opportunities and challenges for the political economy of regional integration in SADC ». Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/49851.
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Thesis (MA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2004.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: One of the most notable features of the relations between the European Union and SADC is the current reconfiguration of their trading architecture as encapsulated in the Cotonou Agreement. Such a process of change can be shown to have inevitably been the result of policy shifts, which are salient characteristics of a global political economy, whose ontology is embedded theoretically in neo-liberalism. Nevertheless, any process of change in the structure of global trading relations has the logical outcome of systemically imposing either challenges or opportunities, and in some cases both, on the participants of that structure. This study represents a scholarly attempt at creating a lucid and descriptive embodiment of the challenges and opportunities involved for SADC in the negotiation and implementation of a Regional Economic Partnership Agreement (REPA) with the European Union. These challenges and opportunities, obligatory within a REPA framework are theoretically pronounced in as far as they shape the political economy of regional integration in SADe. The process of negotiating such a multifaceted agreement with a sophisticated partner, calls for institutional and negotiating capacity. Undoubtedly, such capacity is beyond the membership of SADe. The point is also emphasized that the process of trade liberalization, ingrained in a REPA will create a complex and difficult interface with the current SADC initiatives underway to deepen regional integration. Tellingly, these would contradict the cautious developmental and bottom up approach taken by SADC in its drive for regional integration. Conversely, this study concedes that a REPA with the EU holds a number of novel opportunities for SADC because such a process would provide scope for the fundamental restructuring of the SADC economies. The competitive pressures through decreased levels of protection within a REPA can create an upward convergence of low performing industries in the region. These, amongst others are important aspects if the political economy of SADC is to move into a virtuous cycle of deeper integration and ultimate insertion in the global economy.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Een van die mees opvallende kenmerke van verhoudinge tussen die Europese Unie (EU) en Suider-Afrikaanse Ontwikkelingsgemeenskap (SAOG) is die huidige rekonjigurasie van handelsbetrekkinge, soos vervat in die Cotonou Ooreenkoms. Hierdie proses is die onafwendbare gevolg van beleidsveranderinge in die internasionale politieke ekonomie, met 'n. ontologie wat teoreties in neo-liberalisme gewortel is. Sodanige veranderinge in die struktuur van internasionale handelsverhoudinge. bied uitdagings sowel as geleenthede, en soms beide, aan deelnemers van sodanige struktuur. Hierdie studie is 'n akademiese poging om 'n helder en deskriptiewe blik te werp op die uitdagings en geleenthede vir die SAOG met betrekking tot die onderhandeling en implimentering van die Regionale Ekonomiese Venootskapsooreenkoms (REVO) met die EU Hierdie uitdagings en geleenthede, wat verpligtend is binne die REVO struktuur, is teoreties belangrik in soverre as wat dit die politeke ekonomie van regionale integrasie in SADC beinvloed. Die onderhandelingsproses van so 'n komplekse dokument met gesofistikeerde vennote vereis intitusionele en onderhandelingskapasiteit. Hierdie kapasiteit is nie in SAOG te vinde nie. Die punt word ook benadruk dat die proses van handelsliberalisering, wat deel uitmaak van REVO, botsend kan wees met SAOG inisiatiewe om regionale integrasie te versterk. In essensie sal dit die huiwerige ontwikkelings en 'onder na ba' benadering, wat die SAOG tans volg, weerspreek. Aan die ander kant, gee die studie toe dat 'n REVO met die EU 'n hele aantal voordele inhou, aangesien so 'n proses momentum kan voorsien vir verreikende herstrukturering van SAOG ekonomieë. Die kompeterende druk a.g. v. 'n afname in beskermingsvlakke onder die REVO, kan lei tot 'n opwaartse neiging onder tradisionele swakpresterende nywerhede in die streek. Hierdie is onder andere belangrike aspekte wat SADC in gedagte moet hou, ten einde deel te word van die deugsame kringloop van dieper integrasie, en uiteindelike deelwording van die internasionale ekonomie.
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Bertelsmann-Scott, Talitha. « The SA-EU trade, development and co-operation agreement : democratising South Africa's trade policy ». Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/52573.
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Thesis (MA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2001.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis examines the democratisation of South Africa's foreign trade policy, by evaluating the negotiations surrounding the establishment of a free trade area between South Africa and the European Union (EU). Democracy here is defined as a form of government that rests on three components namely, public participation in and public debate over policy formulation and a governing elite that is responsive to the needs of the majority of the population. The thesis firstly outlines the process of negotiation itself, looking at the developments that shaped the years of talks. It examines the nature of the final agreement, called the Trade, Development and Co-operation Agreement (TDCA). It focuses on the Co-operation Agreements that were concluded, South Africa's partial accession to the Lomé Convention and the details of the free trade agreement. It finds that although the negotiations took very long to complete and the EU proved to be a tough negotiator, there are a number of opportunities for South Africans in the TDCA. In the second section the internal process in developing a South African negotiating mandate is examined. This is done to conclude whether or not South Africa's foreign trade policy is being formulated in a democratic manner. However, first of all the question why the democratisation of foreign trade policy formulation is important is addressed. Two possible theories are advanced. Firstly, globalisation has forced countries to lure foreign direct investment (FDI) as a matter of urgency. Seeing as FDI is mostly tied up with western nations that prefer democracies, states are opting to democratise. The focus is to a large extent on satisfying international actors. Or alternatively, the very survival of the nascent democracy today depends on the consultative nature of domestic economic and international economic policy formulation. This is not a question of choice with an external focus, but rather a matter of urgency with purely an internal focus. Four actors in foreign policy formulation, namely parliament, government, the bureaucracy and civil society, are examined in order to understand whether they had access to the process and whether these institutions themselves have been democratised since 1994. The thesis finds that the process was to a large extent democratic in nature. However, the thesis also finds that no matter how democratic policy formulation is in South Africa, the options for policy are limited by a number of international elements. These include globalisation, regional trading blocs like the European Union, and international organisations like the World Trade Organisation.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die tesis evalueer die demokratisering van Suid-Afrika se buitelandse handelsbeleid deur die onderhandelingsproses tussen die Europese Unie (EU) en Suid-Afrika rakende die sluiting van 'n vryhandelsooreenkoms te ontleed. Demokrasie word in die tesis definieer as 'n tipe regering wat rus op drie komponente, naamlik deelname in en debat oor beleidsformulering en 'n regerende elite wat die behoeftes van die meerderheid van die burgers in ag neem in beleidsformulering. Eerstens omskryf die tesis die gebeure wat die onderhandelingsproses beïnvloed het. Die finale ooreenkoms word oorweeg teen die agtergrond van die samewerkingsooreenkomste wat tussen die partye gesluit is, Suid-Afrika se gedeeltelike deelname aan die Lomé Konfensie en die vryhandelsooreenkoms. Die gevolgtrekking word bereik dat ten spyte van die feit dat die onderhandelings oor 'n hele aantal jare gestek het, en alhoewel die EU 'n uitgeslape onderhandelaar was, die orreenkoms talle geleenthede vir Suid-Afrikaners skep. In die tweede instansie word die interne proses wat tot Suid-Afrika se onderhandelingsmandaat gelei het, ondersoek. Dit is gedoen om vas te stel of die beleid op 'n demokratiese manier geformuleer is. Daar word egter eers bepaal waarom die demokratisering van buitelandse handelsbeleid belangrik is. Twee moontlike teorie word geformuleer. Die eerste stel dit dat globalisering lande forseer om direkte buitelandse beleggings aan te lok. Siende dat buitelandse beleggings van westerlike state afkomstig is, wat verkies om met demokratiese state sake te doen, word ontwikkelende lande as te ware geforseer om veral hulle buitelandse beleidsformulering te demokratiseer. In die alternatief kan dit betoog word dat die voortbestaan van die demokrasie self afhang van 'n ekonomiese beleidsformulering wat beide binnelandse en internasionale prosesse insluit. Dit is nie 'n kwessie van keuse met 'n eksterne fokus nie, maar 'n noodsaaklikheid met 'n interne fokus. Vier groeperinge wat buitelandse beleidsformulering beïnvloed word ondersoek, naamlik die Parlament, the regering, die burokrasie en die burgerlike samelewing, om vas te stelof hierdie instansies toegang tot die proses gehad het en of hierdie instansies self sedert 1994 gedemokratiseer is. Die tesis kom tot die gevolgtrekking dat al is die formulering van buitelandse beleid hoé demokraties, word die moontlikehede vir beleidsformulering beperk deur globalisering, streeksorganisasies soos die EU, en internasionale organisasies soos the Wêreld Handelsorganisasie. Vir Chris, Gitti, Thomas en my ouers, sonder wie hierdie nooit klaar sou gekom het nie. Baie dankie ook aan Prof Philip Nel vir sy hulp, leiding en ondersteuning.
Livres sur le sujet "Political science – European Union countries"
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1950-, Gaffney John, dir. Political parties and the European union. London : Routledge, 1996.
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Policy framing in the European Union. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, UK : Palgrave Macmillan, 2011.
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Sociology of the European Union. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, UK : Palgrave Macmillan, 2011.
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Christiansen, Thomas. Constitutionalizing the European Union. Basingstoke : Palgrave Macmillan, 2009.
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1976-, Doidge Mathew, dir. Development policy of the European Union. New York : Palgrave Macmillan, 2012.
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Greenwood, Justin. Interest representation in the European Union. 3e éd. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire : Palgrave Macmillan, 2011.
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Nathalie, Tocci, dir. Turkey and the European Union. London : Palgrave Macmillan, 2015.
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Democratization and the European Union : Comparing Central and Eastern European post-Communist countries. London : Routledge, 2010.
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1941-, Suleiman Ezra N., dir. Bureaucratic autonomy and the European Commission : Europe's custodians. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2012.
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1969-, Miles Lee, dir. The European Union and the Nordic countries. London : Routledge, 1996.
Trouver le texte intégralChapitres de livres sur le sujet "Political science – European Union countries"
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Santos, Victor. « European Structural and Investment Funds 2021–2027 : Prediction Analysis Based on Machine Learning Models ». Dans Springer Proceedings in Political Science and International Relations, 167–75. Cham : Springer Nature Switzerland, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-18161-0_11.
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ABSTRACTThis research presents several machine learning algorithms and prediction models to anticipate the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) application in different European Union (EU) countries. These analyses start with data training from 2014 to 2020 ESIF, to test and predict the application of the future ESI Funds for 2021–2027. We deliver an analysis focused on the priorities of each fund, highlighting the differences between the programs in different time periods. In the framework of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), we will specifically address the assessment of the following themes: support innovation of small and medium-sized businesses, to greener, low-carbon, and resilient projects with enhanced mobility. In what concerns the European Social Fund (ESF), we will evaluate projects that promote and increase the EU’s employment, social, education, and skills policies, including structural reforms in these areas. Regarding the cohesion funds (CF), we will be targeting the improvements between the two ESIFs, looking at projects in the field of environment and trans-European networks in the area of transport infrastructure (TEN-T). In summary, we will be looking at the future of ESIF through the glasses of artificial intelligence.
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Henriques, Carla, et Clara Viseu. « Are ERDF Devoted to Boosting ICT in SMEs Inefficient ? Insights Through Different DEA Models ». Dans Springer Proceedings in Political Science and International Relations, 29–42. Cham : Springer Nature Switzerland, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-18161-0_2.
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AbstractWe evaluated the execution of operational programs (OPs) targeted at increasing the adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) in small and midsize enterprises (SMEs). As a result, we employed two different data envelopment analysis (DEA) models to evaluate 51 OPs from 16 countries, contemplating data provided to the European Union (EU). All in all, we observed that almost 20% of the OPs (10) achieved efficient procedural outcomes, with the slack-based method (SBM) and with the weighted Russel Directional Distance model (WRDDM), respectively. Two of the OPs most frequently viewed as benchmarks were in Spain (the country that uses “vouchers” simplifying processes), remaining robustly efficient for data perturbations of 5% and 10%. The ‘number of operations supported’ is the metric that necessitates more consideration according to both models. Overall, these findings show the robustness of results with both methods, highlighting a higher discriminatory power of the second method, particularly for inefficient OPs. Finally, the unsuccessful findings attained might be linked to bureaucratic procedures and SMEs’ incapacity to deal with the complicated processes involved in obtaining and implementing European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) proposals. As a result, it is critical to provide the extra help that reduces managerial requirements while also meeting the demands of SMEs.
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Kauppi, Niilo. « European Political Science and Global Knowledge ». Dans Toward a Reflexive Political Sociology of the European Union, 149–63. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71002-0_9.
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Mérő, Katalin. « The Banking Union and the Central and Eastern European countries ». Dans The Political Economy of the Eurozone in Central and Eastern Europe, 116–36. London : Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780429261411-8.
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Alavi, Hamed. « The European Union and Protection of Environment in Eastern Partnership Countries ». Dans Political and Legal Perspectives of the EU Eastern Partnership Policy, 137–51. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-27383-9_9.
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Koralun-Bereźnicka, Julia. « Analysis of the Corporate Performance Diversity in the Selected European Union Countries ». Dans Contributions to Management Science, 53–81. Heidelberg : Springer International Publishing, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-00345-0_3.
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Matthes, Claudia-Y. « Safeguarding Democracy and the Rule of Law by Civil Society Actors ? The Case of Poland ». Dans Palgrave Studies in European Union Politics, 263–81. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54674-8_11.
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Abstract A growing body of literature examines the EU’s reactions to illiberal trends in ECE countries. These studies predominantly focus on political instruments such as Article 7 and the Commission’s new rule of law mechanism, and there is a broad consensus on the view that these tools are too weak to combat breaches of liberal principles. This chapter therefore explores the potential of alternative strategies, namely the involvement of civil society actors in backsliding countries. By looking at the Polish case, it explores how much Polish civil society interacts with the European institutions in order to address violations of the rule of law and which strategies these actors unfold. It examines whether this cooperation may help to safeguard democracy in a bottom-up manner. The overall goal of the chapter is to investigate how much the EU’s instruments against democratic backsliding could and should be accompanied effectively by strategies aiming at collaboration with liberal forces within the backsliding member states.
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Sobczak, Elżbieta, et Beata Bal-Domańska. « Smart Growth Path as the Basis for the European Union Countries Typology ». Dans Data Science, Learning by Latent Structures, and Knowledge Discovery, 513–24. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-44983-7_45.
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Abromeit, Heidrun. « The Constitutionalisation and Democratisation of the European Union : Political Science between Interpretation and Prescription ». Dans European and Transatlantic Studies, 175–97. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-59443-4_8.
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Camanho, Ana, Mafalda C. Silva, Isabel M. Horta et Flávia Barbosa. « Benchmarking the Metabolism of European Union Countries to Promote the Continuous Improvement of Service Ecosystems ». Dans Exploring Service Science, 319–33. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38724-2_23.
Texte intégralActes de conférences sur le sujet "Political science – European Union countries"
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Macerinskiene, Irena. « INTANGIBLES ASSESSMENT IN EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES ». Dans SGEM 2014 Scientific SubConference on POLITICAL SCIENCES, LAW, FINANCE, ECONOMICS AND TOURISM. Stef92 Technology, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgemsocial2014/b24/s7.050.
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Montvilaite, Kristina. « ASSESSMENT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT CONVERGENCE POSSIBILITIES IN THE COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ». Dans SGEM 2014 Scientific SubConference on POLITICAL SCIENCES, LAW, FINANCE, ECONOMICS AND TOURISM. Stef92 Technology, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgemsocial2014/b22/s6.009.
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Zemguliene, Jolanta. « THE PRODUCTIVITY SPILLOVERS AS THE SOURCE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH � AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS WITH EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES� DATA ». Dans SGEM 2014 Scientific SubConference on POLITICAL SCIENCES, LAW, FINANCE, ECONOMICS AND TOURISM. Stef92 Technology, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgemsocial2014/b23/s7.084.
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Nuhanović, Amra, et Jasmila Pašić. « United Europe – Yes, or no ? » Dans 7th International e-Conference on Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences. Center for Open Access in Science, Belgrade, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32591/coas.e-conf.07.05043n.
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In recent years, the European Union has been facing a number of challenges that it is finding it increasingly difficult to overcome. Most EU member states are facing a crisis of confidence in Europe and its institutions, and at the same time nationalist political parties and ideas are developing more and more, leading to a weakening of European solidarity. Eastern European countries weakened awareness of the collective interest. The common values that existed until then have become “diluted”, because different understandings of the nature of the state have emerged, as well as different views on international politics. At the same time, support for European integration among citizens has been declining, and fewer and fewer have seen membership as good and can bring significant benefits. Today, the idea of a united EU is in crisis and that is precisely the cause of the crisis the Union is facing.
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Başeğmez, Nergiz, et Kerem Toker. « A Crossroad For Turkey : European Union Or Eurasian Economic Union ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c07.01668.
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With a long and complicated history with Turkey's EU relations began in 1963 with Ankara Agreement. Turkey has been engaged the full membership since 2005 but nevertheless it could not have achieved results during the negotiations. Behind the slow pace of Turkey's membership, many political and cultural barriers can be shown. The events showed that reveals Turkey cannot be an EU member as soon as possible. This case may cause the Turkey have different pursuits in the political world arena. Turkey moved away from the EU, it can be motivated to participate in different political and economic union at the same time. Because, the world is constantly changing in terms of economic and political conditions and Turkey is hard to question the position in these new conditions. Founded in 2015 Eurasian Union has similar cultural and historical heritage alongside the geographical closely EAEU with Turkey. This common history may create opportunities for both sides. In this study, economic, social and political relations between Turkey and the EAEU countries are briefly discussed. Datas about this issue were gathered by Eurostat, europa.eu, wto.org and eurasiancommission.org etc. official data sources. The findings were compared with similar indicators between Turkey and the EU. So the EAEU is evaluated likely to be an alternative political and economic union to Turkey. Such a vision changes in Turkey will revise its economic and political stability of the region. This paper may contribute to further studies by providing a solid base.
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Petrishchev, Vyacheslav. « ETHNO-CULTURAL ASPECTS OF GLOBALIZATION : EXPERIENCE OF EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ». Dans Globalistics-2020 : Global issues and the future of humankind. Interregional Social Organization for Assistance of Studying and Promotion the Scientific Heritage of N.D. Kondratieff / ISOASPSH of N.D. Kondratieff, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.46865/978-5-901640-33-3-2020-340-349.
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The article deals with the ethno-cultural aspects of globalization on the example of European countries, members of the European Union. The influence of the ethno-cultural factor on political, economic and cultural relations within the EU member-states, between the EU member-states and relations with immigrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East is shown. The forecast for the further development of the European Union as a major factor of globalization is given.
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Bir iakova, Na a., Jana Stavkova et Veronika Anto ova. « Income Poverty in Selected Countries of the European Union ». Dans 2013 International Conference on the Modern Development of Humanities and Social Science. Paris, France : Atlantis Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/mdhss-13.2013.124.
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Cheba, Katarzyna, et Iwona Bak. « Diagnosis of socio-economic development of the European Union countries ». Dans 20th International Scientific Conference "Economic Science for Rural Development 2019". Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies. Faculty of Economics and Social Development, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.22616/esrd.2019.057.
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Savoyska, Svitlana. « POLITICAL OR POLITICAL CONTEXT OF THE LANGUAGE POLICY MODEL : TO DEFINITION ». Dans Relevant Issues of the Development of Science in Central and Eastern European Countries. Publishing House “Baltija Publishing”, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.30525/978-9934-588-11-2_59.
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Grosse, Ingrid. « Trade Union Representativeness in Vietnam, China and Sweden How different are trade unions in communist and liberal-democratic countries ? » Dans Annual International Conference on Political Science, Sociology and International Relations. Global Science & Technology Forum (GSTF), 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.5176/2251-2403_pssir15.23.
Texte intégralRapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Political science – European Union countries"
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Fairlie, Alan. New challenges for the European Union's Multiparty Trade Agreement with Peru, Colombia and Ecuador. Fundación Carolina, février 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.33960/issn-e.1885-9119.dtff02en.
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This document analyses the trade and cooperation relations between the European Union and the Andean countries with which the Multiparty Trade Agreement was signed (Peru, Ecuador and Colombia). It also examines the progress and challenges in terms of the sustainable development agenda, political dialogue and cooperation within the framework of the agreement. From there, it explores the different technical difficulties that have arisen in the implementation of the agreement and the role of the monitoring bodies. The aim is to study the strategic importance of the agreement in relations between the European Union and Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, and its contribution to the post-pandemic economic recovery and the promotion of new development models.
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Morsy, Ahmed. Towards a renewed local social and political covenant in Libya, Syria and Yemen. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, décembre 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.55163/ofgn2229.
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This SIPRI Insights Paper examines the domestic and external factors at play in Libya, Syria and Yemen and their impact on negotiating post-war peaceful settlements and shaping prospective social contracts.The paper’s argument is two-fold. Firstly, policymaking must move beyond a static approach to understanding these conflicts. Despite apparent stalemates, the three countries should be approached as ever-evolving simmering conflicts. Secondly, policymakers have to move below the national level in order to achieve various forms of localized social peace. Given the nature of these conflicts and the varied sub-national segmentation, the analysis concludes that community-level social and political covenants may offer a first building block towards nationwide social contracts and sustainable conflict resolution.The role of external actors, particularly the European Union (EU), is critical in paving the way for these local-level dialogues and negotiations in Libya, Syria and Yemen. In short, external powers, including the EU, should adopt policies that push for long-term resolution to achieve post-conflict stabilization rather than the opportunistic taking of sides.
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Zhytaryuk, Marian. Ukraine in the international press in 1930 (on the materials of the Lviv newspaper «Dilo»). Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, février 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.30970/vjo.2022.51.11413.
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In the article of Professor Maryan Zhytaryuk, it is implemented the systematization of publications in the international press of 1930 about Ukraine on the materials of the Lviv newspaper «Dilo». Important political issues, in particular: Bolshevism in Soviet Ukraine, the massacre of the Ukrainian intelligentsia (Union for the Liberation of Ukraine), the interpretation of the «Ukrainian political problem» in European countries were singled out and generalized. The topicality of the article subject follows from the need to supplement the materials on the study of the «Ukrainian question», from the understanding that the interwar period, mainly in the 30s of the twentieth century, is a concentrated historical and political period, that is represented on newspaper and magazine columns. During the decade (30s of the twentieth century) – there were thousands of them. For example, in the newspaper «Dilo» only in the first three months of 1930 we can find more than 100 publications on international subjects. Therefore, the author narrowed the research materials to translated materials in the genres of press round-up, review, digest of publications in the foreign press. The purpose of the article is to focus on Ukrainian issues in the international press based on translations and comments on foreign publications in the newspaper «Dilo» in 1930. The task of the publication is to comprehend the identified texts in the context of geopolitical construction on the eve of World War II; to supplement the history of Ukrainian and foreign journalism and its source base. In the article the author uses the method of scientific study of primary sources found in the special funds of the Scientific Library of LNU. I. Franko, in particular, the bundles of the newspaper «Dilo» for 1930. 252 publications were processed, some of which - in several submissions. Based on scientific summarizing, 15 publications on political issues with the keyword «Ukraine» were selected on the basis of translated sources from foreign media (scientific research method). Actually with the purpose of understanding the raised issues (conceptual analysis) and of preparing some certain conclusions and generalizations (methods of synthesis, induction and deduction) the problem-thematic analysis was used.
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Monetary Policy Report - July 2022. Banco de la República, octobre 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3-2022.
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In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias