Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Nonparametric, Volatility, Options pricing, High Frequency Data »

Technological innovation has changed the financial market significantly with the increasing application of high-frequency data in research and practice. This study examines the performance of intraday implied volatility (IV) in estimating currency options prices. Options quotations at a different trading time, such as the opening period, midday period and closing period of a trading day with one-month, two months’ and three months’ maturity, are employed to compute intraday IV for pricing currency options. We use the Mincer–Zarnowitz regression test to analyse the volatility forecast power of IV for three different forecast horizons (within a week, one week and one month). Intraday IV’s capability in estimating currency options price is measured by the mean squared error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error measure. The empirical findings show that intraday IV is the key to accurately forecasting volatility and estimating currency options prices precisely. Moreover, IV at the closing period of the beginning of the week contains crucial information for options price estimation. Furthermore, the shorter maturity intraday IV is suitable for pricing options for a shorter horizon. In comparison, the intraday IV based on the longer maturity options subsumes appropriate information to price options with higher accuracy for the longer horizon. Our paper proposes a new approach to accurately pricing currency options using high-frequency data.

This study investigates the volatility risk premium on the emerging financial market. We also consider the expected return and ESG sentiment. Based on the SSE 50 ETF 5-minute high-frequency spots and daily options data from 2016 to 2021, we adopt nonparametric model-free approaches to calculate realized and implied volatilities. And the volatility risk premium is constructed by subtracting these volatility series. We examine the relations between the volatility risk premium and future excess returns as well as ESG sentiment through multifactor specifications. We find that the volatility risk premium also exists in the Chinese market and is significantly negative. In addition, the statistically positive correlation between the volatility risk premium and aggregate returns is an outlier compared to the empirically negative pattern in developed markets. At last, ESG sentiment is positively associated with the volatility risk premium, especially the impact of environmental and social. This evidence supports the agency theory, which indicates that investors perceive ESG investments as waste resources in a short term and become potentially risky.

We present a new theory for the conduct of nonparametric inference about the latent spot volatility of a semimartingale asset price process. In contrast to existing theories based on the asymptotic notion of an increasing number of observations in local estimation blocks, our theory treats the estimation block size k as fixed. While the resulting spot volatility estimator is no longer consistent, the new theory permits the construction of asymptotically valid and easy‐to‐calculate pointwise confidence intervals for the volatility at any given point in time. Extending the theory to a high‐dimensional inference setting with a growing number of estimation blocks further permits the construction of uniform confidence bands for the volatility path. An empirically realistically calibrated simulation study underscores the practical reliability of the new inference procedures. An empirical application based on intraday data for the S&P 500 equity index reveals highly significant abrupt changes, or jumps, in the market volatility at FOMC news announcement times, validating recent uses of various high‐frequency‐based identification schemes in asset pricing finance and monetary economics.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between option’s implied volatility smirk (IVS) and excess returns in the Germany’s leading stock index Deutscher-Aktien Index (DAX) 30. Design/methodology/approach – The study defines the IVS as the difference in implied volatility derived from out-of-the-money put options and at-the-money call options. This study employs the ordinary least square regression with Newey-West correction to analyse the relationship between IVS and excess DAX 30 index returns in Germany. Findings – The authors find that the German market adjusts information in an efficient way. Consequently, there is no information linkage between option volatility smirk and market index returns over the nine years sample period after considering the control variables, global financial crisis dummies, and the subsample test. Research limitations/implications – This study finds that the option market and the DAX 30 index are informationally efficient. Implications of the findings are that the investors cannot profit from the information contained in the IVS since the information is simultaneously incorporated into option prices and the stock index prices. The findings of this study are applicable to other markets with European options and for market participants who seek to exploit short-term market divergence from efficiency. Originality/value – The relationship between IVS and stock price changes has not been investigated sufficiently in academic literature. This study looks at this relationship in the context of European options using high-frequency transactions data. Prior studies look at this relationship for only American options using daily data. Pricing efficiency of the European option market using high-frequency data have not been studied in the prior literature. The authors find different results for the German market based on this high-frequency data set.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to understand that option pricing is the response of option implied volatility (IV) to macroeconomic announcements. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use high-frequency data on ASX SPI 200 index options to examine the response of option IV, as well as higher moments of the underlying return distribution, to macroeconomic announcements. Additionally, the authors identify the response of the moments as a function of moneyness of the options. Findings – The findings suggest that in-the-money and out-of-the money options have difference characteristics in their responses, leading to the conclusion that heterogeneity in investor beliefs and preferences affect option IV through the state price density (SPD) function. Originality/value – The research contributes to the literature that examines whether IV captures the beliefs of market participants about the likelihood of future states together with the preferences of market participants towards these states. In particular, the authors relate changes in option IV to changes in macroeconomic announcements, through the impact of these announcements on the moments of the SPD function.

Purpose The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to an option buyer and results in a substantial capital loss, even with a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most volatility plays are for option sellers, but the profit they can achieve is limited and the sellers carry unlimited risk. This paper aims to demonstrate the dynamics of implied volatility (IV) as being influenced by effects of persistence, leverage, market sentiment and liquidity. From the exploratory factor analysis (EFA), they extract four constructs and the results from the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) indicated a good model fit for the constructs. Design/methodology/approach This section describes the methodology used for conducting the study. This includes the study area, study approach, sources of data, sampling technique and the method of data analysis. Findings Although there is extensive literature on methods for estimating IV dynamics during earnings announcement, few researchers have looked at the impact of expected market maker move, IV differential and IV Rank on the IV path after the earnings announcement. One reason for this research gap is because of the recent introduction of weekly options for equities by the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) back in late 2010. Even then, the CBOE only released weekly options four individual equities – Bank of America (BAC.N), Apple (AAPL.O), Citigroup (C.N) and US-listed shares of BP (BP.L) (BP.N). The introduction of weekly options provided more trading flexibility and precision timing from shorter durations. This automatically expanded expiration choices, which in turned offered greater access and flexibility from the perspective of trading volatility during earnings announcement. This study has demonstrated the impact of including market sentiment and liquidity into the forecasting model for IV during earnings. This understanding in turn helps traders to formulate strategies that can circumvent the undefined risk associated with trading options strategies such as writing strangles. Research limitations/implications The first limitation of the study is that the firms included in the study are relatively large, and the results of the study can therefore not be generalized to medium sized and small firms. The second limitation lies in the current sample size, which in many cases was not enough to be able to draw reliable conclusions on. Scaling the sample size up is only a function of time and effort. This is easily overcome and should not be a limitation in the future. The third limitation concerns the measurement of the variables. Under the assumption of a normal distribution of returns (i.e. stock prices follow a random walk process), which means that the distribution of returns is symmetrical, one can estimate the probabilities of potential gains or losses associated with each amount. This means the standard deviation of securities returns, which is called historical volatility and is usually calculated as a moving average, can be used as a risk indicator. The prices used for the calculations are usually the closing prices, but Parkinson (1980) suggests that the day’s high and low prices would provide a better estimate of real volatility. One can also refine the analysis with high-frequency data. Such data enable the avoidance of the bias stemming from the use of closing (or opening) prices, but they have only been available for a relatively short time. The length of the observation period is another topic that is still under debate. There are no criteria that enable one to conclude that volatility calculated in relation to mean returns over 20 trading days (or one month) and then annualized is any more or less representative than volatility calculated over 130 trading days (or six months) and then annualized, or even than volatility measured directly over 260 trading days (one year). Nonetheless, the guidelines adopted in this study represent the best practices of researchers thus far. Practical implications This study has indicated that an earnings announcement can provide a volatility mispricing opportunity to allow an investor to profit from a sudden, sharp drop in IV. More specifically, the methodology developed by Tan and Bing is now well supported both empirically and theoretically in terms of qualifying opportunities that can be profitable because of the volatility crush. Conventionally, the option strategy of shorting strangles carries unlimited theoretical risk; however, the methodology has demonstrated that this risk can be substantially reduced if followed judiciously. This profitable strategy relies on a set of qualifying parameters including liquidity, premium collection, volatility differential, expected market move and market sentiment. Building upon this framework, the understanding of the effects of persistence and leverage resulted in further reducing the risk associated with trading options during earnings announcements. As a guideline, the sentiment and liquidity variables help to qualify a trade and the effects of persistence and leverage help to close the qualified trade. Social implications The authors find a positive association between the effects of market sentiment, liquidity, persistence and leverage in the dynamics of IV during earnings announcement. These findings substantiate further the four factors that influence IV dynamics during earnings announcement and conclude that just looking at persistence and leverage alone will not generate profitable trading opportunities. Originality/value The impact of volatility crush can be devastating to the option buyer with substantial capital loss, even for a directionally correct strategy. As a result, most volatility plays are for option sellers; however, the profit is limited and the sellers carry unlimited risk. The authors demonstrate the dynamics of IV as being influenced by effects of persistence, leverage, market sentiment and liquidity. From the EFA, they extracted four constructs and the results from the CFA indicated a good model fit for the constructs. Using EFA, CFA and Bayesian analysis, how this model can help investors formulate the right strategy to achieve the best risk/reward mix is demonstrated. Using Bayesian estimation and IV differential to proxy for differences of opinion about term structures in option pricing, the authors find a positive association among the effects of market sentiment, liquidity, persistence and leverage in the dynamics of IV during earnings announcement.

This thesis studies the efficiency of some estimators of the spot and integrated volatilities proposed in the recent literature and uses high frequency data. It is well known that financial high frequency data evidence microstructure effects which render the classics estimator of the volatility inappropriate, namely the “realized volatility”. Therefore, it is necessary to use volatility estimate which is robust in the presence of those effects. The dissertation examines some of those estimates comparing their performance first using statistic-econometrics technics and successively with pure financial criteria or in term of their ability for working out the price of options written on the S&P 500. Precisely, the use of the studied estimators of the spot volatilty permits by means of a Nadayara and Watson regression type, of estimating the functional form of the diffusion coefficient in a local volatility model and we successively used it for the pricing of the derivative with Dupire's equation. This approach is based on the estimation of the underlying asset which is different from the classical technics of derivatives pricing based exclusively on the PDE (partial differencial equation). Furthermore, this allows to take into account high information available in the high frequency data contained in the underlying asset which are generally neglected and can be of higher interest when pricing “out of the money” options or when less information is available for options similar to those we want to evaluate. The principal contributions of this article are: firstly, the study of the consistency and asymptotically normally distribution fo the errors for the new proposed estimators, secondly, the comparison of diffeerent estimators of the spot volatility in term of option pricing. Finally, we have compared the result of this approach with those of classical (parametric) approach obtained by PDE, and successively, with the prices estimated using only daily data (low frequency).

This thesis studies the use of nonparametric econometric methods to reconcile the empirical behaviour of financial asset prices with theoretical valuation models. The confrontation of economic theory with asset price data requires various functional form assumptions about the preferences and beliefs of investors. Nonparametric methods provide a flexible class of models that can prevent misspecification of agents’ utility functions or the distribution of asset returns. Evidence for potential nonlinearity is seen in the presence of non-Gaussian distributions and excessive volatility of stock returns, or non-monotonic stochastic discount factors in option prices. More robust model specifications are therefore likely to contribute to risk management and return predictability, and lend credibility to economists’ assertions. Each of the chapters in this thesis relaxes certain functional form assumptions that seem most important for understanding certain asset price data. Chapter 1 focuses on the state-price density in option prices, which confounds the nonlinearity in both the preferences and the beliefs of investors. To understand both sources of nonlinearity in equity prices, Chapter 2 introduces a semiparametric generalization of the standard representative agent consumption-based asset pricing model. Chapter 3 returns to option prices to understand the relative importance of changes in the distribution of returns and in the shape of the pricing kernel. More specifically, Chapter 1 studies the use of noisy high-frequency data to estimate the time-varying state-price density implicit in European option prices. A dynamic kernel estimator of the conditional pricing function and its derivatives is proposed that can be used for model-free risk measurement. Infill asymptotic theory is derived that applies when the pricing function is either smoothly varying or driven by diffusive state variables. Trading times and moneyness levels are modelled by marked point processes to capture intraday trading patterns. A simulation study investigates the performance of the estimator using an iterated plug-in bandwidth in various scenarios. Empirical results using S&P 500 E-mini European option quotes finds significant time-variation at intraday frequencies. An application towards delta- and minimum variance-hedging further illustrates the use of the estimator. Chapter 2 proposes a semiparametric asset pricing model to measure how consumption and dividend policies depend on unobserved state variables, such as economic uncertainty and risk aversion. Under a flexible specification of the stochastic discount factor, the state variables are recovered from cross-sections of asset prices and volatility proxies, and the shape of the policy functions is identified from the pricing functions. The model leads to closed-form price-dividend ratios under polynomial approximations of the unknown functions and affine state variable dynamics. In the empirical application uncertainty and risk aversion are separately identified from size-sorted stock portfolios exploiting the heterogeneous impact of uncertainty on dividend policy across small and large firms. I find an asymmetric and convex response in consumption (-) and dividend growth (+) towards uncertainty shocks, which together with moderate uncertainty aversion, can generate large leverage effects and divergence between macroeconomic and stock market volatility. Chapter 3 studies the nonparametric identification and estimation of projected pricing kernels implicit in the pricing of options, the underlying asset, and a riskfree bond. The sieve minimum-distance estimator based on conditional moment restrictions avoids the need to compute ratios of estimated risk-neutral and physical densities, and leads to stable estimates even in regions with low probability mass. The conditional empirical likelihood (CEL) variant of the estimator is used to extract implied densities that satisfy the pricing restrictions while incorporating the forwardlooking information from option prices. Moreover, I introduce density combinations in the CEL framework to measure the relative importance of changes in the physical return distribution and in the pricing kernel. The nonlinear dynamic pricing kernels can be used to understand return predictability, and provide model-free quantities that can be compared against those implied by structural asset pricing models.