Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « National Policy of Labour »

Following formal economic liberalisation in 1991, business, in particular big business, has gained increasing access to and influence over policy decision-making in India. Industry has been an outspoken critic of national labour laws and has lobbied extensively for greater labour market flexibility. While business has not been successful in influencing “official” labour reform at the national level, it was able to influence labour policy within the National Manufacturing Policy 2011, which curtailed labour protections and implemented “hire and fire” policies. Utilising qualitative data from 40 face-to-face interviews with policy stakeholders in New Delhi, India, this paper aims to explore how business was able to influence labour reform within this policy as well as underscore the wider social welfare implications that may follow. It will be argued that the ability of business to dictate labour reform, while strong, is somewhat variable as competing factors serve to constrain business influence. Furthermore, the extent to which labour laws are hindering manufacturing investment is widely debatable. Nevertheless, curtailment of labour protections, as afforded in this policy, will have a widespread and damaging impact on workers. While the policy promises to empower rural youth, provide gainful employment, and enable growth to become more sustainable and inclusive for its citizens, it is questionable whether these goals can be achieved alongside the curtailment of labour protections.

Under the Government's New Deal proposals to help create jobs for the young unemployed, employers are offered marginal employment subsidies. Such interventions involve relative changes in the firm's fixed and variable labour costs. In turn, cost changes have implications for both employment and hours of work. This study examines possible strengths and weaknesses of employment policies that are designed to price young unemployed into jobs by reducing related labour costs. It focuses on one such intervention, the major restructuring of employers' National Insurance Contributions (NICs) in the 1985 Budget. This is then linked to the New Deal measures.

This article introduces the concept of the cultural public sphere to examine public debate around national government policy in the cultural field when the nation-state is said to be of diminishing significance. The election of New Labour in Britain and the cultural politics of its first six months in office are taken as a case study. A distinction is made between cultural policy proper and cultural policy as display. New Labour is especially notable for its symbolic politics and manipulation of cultural policy as display, much more so than its program for cultural policy proper, which remained little developed during the first year of office. The New Labour project is nothing less than a redefinition of Britishness — largely reduced, however, to the ‘rebranding’ of Britain as a ‘Young Nation’ or ‘Cool Britannia’, in the wake of Thatcherism's lengthy period of ‘regressive modernisation’. The May 1997 general election itself, the death and funeral of Diana, Princess of Wales and intense controversy over the New Millennium Experience all occurred within the first six months of Labour government. The article analyses the relations between these events and concludes that the New Labour project, symbolised by the Millennium Dome, articulates a national hubris that reproduces Britain's historical problem of coming to terms with its declining significance in the world. New Labour's virtual politics and its adherence to an accentuated public relations and marketing model of politics are at odds with the democratic principles of the public sphere in general, illustrated in the article by the particular operations and limitations of the cultural public sphere.

In this report the Labour Party gives its view of the current status of the British National Health Service (NHS), and outlines its plans for the NHS under a Labour government. The values underlying the NHS—comprehensive health care, free at the point of use, based on need rather than ability to pay—have been betrayed. The truly national health service, created by a Labour government in 1948, has been replaced by a market-based service led by accountants. Patients are suffering, health care professionals are dissatisfied, some of the nation's finest hospitals are closing, community care is in chaos, and NHS dentistry has all but been privatized. Under the Tories, the NHS faces a future of privatization, competition, and markets, money wasted on bureaucracy, and the unfairness of a two-tier system. Under Labour, the NHS faces modernization, planned progress, money spent on frontline services, and excellence for all. Labour will follow a model of health care that is patient centered and community led, a properly coordinated and efficient public service.

AbstractJobBridge, the Irish National Internship Scheme, was a labour activation measure launched in July 2011, during a period of extreme economic crisis, and was marketed as a chance for young people to gain career experience in quality work placements. Over 60 per cent of participants found employment after leaving the scheme but it suffered from high deadweight losses and was widely criticised as exploitative during its existence. This was quite predictable, which leaves the puzzle as to why JobBridge was designed without more regulations to protect the entry-level jobs market and the interests of the unemployed? This paper will trace the processes behind this suboptimal decision-making. First, it will show the institutional factors influencing poor policy decisions on labour activation. Then it will explain the main incentives behind an under-regulated programme, which were the need to develop a workable scheme as quickly as possible and to do this without significant funding. Finally, it will show how the decision-making process prioritised the interests of the Labour Party, government, business and the concerned parents of unemployed youth over the interests of the unemployed.

The article is concerned with the analysis of the transformations in the labour market taking place in the Kyrgyz Republic (KR), which cause a great resonance in society, but continue to remain unexplored in the legal literature. Consequently, the purpose of the article is to identify the general trend in the legal labour reform policy and to determine the main directions of legal policy to improve the mechanism of legal regulation of labor. In the article, the objectives of classifying the main periods of the implementation of labor reforms (begun in 2005) are solved, analysis and assessment of the means of implementing reforms in terms of their compliance with national and international labor standards are carried out based on dialectical and logical methods, as well as the use of the systemic method. The article reveals serious inconsistencies between the deregulation policy and prohibitions in the labour market with the ILO Conventions No. 81, 87, 150, 155, which were ratified by the Kyrgyz Republic (except for the ILO Convention No. 155). In particular, the negative consequences of the deregulation policy for the field of labor safety and protection were noted, especially in the context of the onset of the COVID-19 coronavirus. Based on the analysis of the problems of the labor regulation reform policy, it is concluded that it is necessary to develop a unified state program for the development of the labour market, containing a system of strategic priorities, conceptual ideas, goals and measures that determine the prospects for improving the labor legislation of the Kyrgyz Republic on the basis of intensifying the processes of monitoring labor legislation and the practice of its enforcement in the Kyrgyz Republic. The provisions and conclusions of this article are of practical importance for the executive authorities implementing state policy in the field of labor.

The British Labour Party claims that its policies are based on a “third way,” new and distinct from both the old left and the new right. This article critically examines this claim with respect to health policy. After examining the Conservative legacy in the National Health Service and the evolution of Labour's health policy, the author introduces the concept of the “third way” and discusses the extent to which Labour's health policy can be seen in these terms, using the themes of spending, competition, accountability, and public health. There are many differences between the health policies of New and Old Labour, and some differences between those of New Labour and the Conservatives. Indeed, to a large extent Labour's health policy is built on the legacy of the Conservatives and is characterized by evolution. It is difficult to find any “big idea” or coherent philosophy behind the third way. Rather than being a new and distinctive approach rejecting both the old left and the new right, it seems to be a pragmatic pick and mix, attempting to combine the best from the market approach of the Conservatives and the hierarchical approach of Old Labour.

This study aims to examine the impact of green transition and globalization processes on changes in the labour share. The study covers 76 national economies diversified in development, global production share and energy transition stage from 2000 to 2018. Based on the Total Economy Database data, panel models of the relationship between green transition, globalization and the labour share in the national income were estimated. The conducted Breusch–Pagan and Hausman tests proved the validity of using fixed-effects models. We confirmed the research hypothesis that the openness of the economy contributes to a decline in the labour share. The openness of the economy resulting from globalization reduces the labour share in the national income. We do not confirm hypotheses that suggest energy transition contributes to a reduction in the labour share and that the labour share will decline in the post-crisis period due to the lower bargaining power of workers. Changes in the labour share should be of interest to government representatives who influence the shape and implementation of economic policy, especially in employment policy, education, and investment policy, mainly aimed at the green transformation.

The article discusses problems and contradictions associated with the attempt of the Labour Party under the leadership of Tony Blair to start a 'new era' in international relations by putting the 'ethical dimension' into the heart of their foreign policy. Indeed, having come to power and possessing great credibility among the British society, New Labour undertook a number of actions, which marked the formal break with the practices of the previous governments. Thus, they shifted the focus from the foreign trade interests to human rights considerations on the international arena, introduced innovations in the field of international aid and development of poor countries, declared the priority of so-called 'advanced' national interests. These solutions, however, have led to some ambiguous results. The author argues that, on the one hand, the Labour Party 'new' foreign policy was a tribute to the historical tradition and continuity and on the other - the spirit of the times, as other Western countries leaders claimed similar statements, and that, in fact, it contributed to the moral authority of the government in the eyes of the British society. The article contains examples proving how ambiguity and contradictoriness of certain decisions have been the conscious choice made by politicians, when declared altruistic goals actually proved to protect interests of certain business structures and direct opposite of the stated ethical principles. It is suggested that the divergence between word and deed had been initially present in the New Labour international doctrine and that the 'ethical foreign policy' can be considered as one of the tools of Realpolitik. The author concentrates on such aspects of the New Labour foreign policy as development, aid, debt relief, and arms trade, rather than on Blair’s just wars’ that are widely discussed in the Russian language historical literature and press.

The main theme of this thesis is an examination of Labour Party policies regarding public housing, 1951-64. In order to explore fully the varied and changing Party policy towards public housing, this thesis moves between a national and local level, drawing upon examples of policy and politics from London local government. SpeCifically it takes as its focus four Labour Partyrun councils; the London County Council and Islington, st. Pancras and Lambeth. These local authorities differed significantly in their housing policies, regarding both whom they housed and how this choice related to the authorities' financial position and political priorities. Such local variation requires exploration. An investigation and comparison of Labour's housing policies provides a location from which to examine the ideology of the Labour Party. During this period, there was much debate within the Party over issues of rents, rate subsidies, race and municipalisation. These debates offer a window into the broader political divisions within the Labour Party. Specifically, an examination of Labour's housing agenda has allowed this thesis to examine the twin considerations of finance and politics at both a local and national level. The two strands of this thesis - housing and Labour Party ideology - allow this thesis to isolate two important areas of investigation. The first of these is the existing gap in the historiography of the Labour Party and local politics. Specifically, making a case study of St. Pancras borough council, this thesis starts to explore the nature of the Labour Party within local government and the relationship and tension between local and national Party. Generally, moving between the national and local level allows the thesis to discuss, with regards to housing policy and finance, the issue of local authority autonomy from central government and national party. The second area of investigation of this thesis is an exploration of the competing pressures of principles and pragmatism in the Labour Party's political consciousness, or policy decisions. Therefore, the thesis explores how far the pragmatic demands of governance were in conflict with, for instance, policies such as municipalisation that many Labour Party members saw as furthering socialism.

Thesis (MA)-- Stellenbosch University, 2013.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The role and influence of interest groups and non-state actors in the foreign policy process remains an interesting topic for debate. This study explores the role of three South African trade union organisations, COSATU, FEDUSA and Solidariteit, in the foreign policy process of South Africa. It asks what role these trade union organisations played between 1999 and 2012 in the South African foreign policy process and what factors had a bearing on that role. The core argument of this study is that trade union organisations participate in creating public awareness of foreign policy issues among its members and the broader population. Through this role they, in turn, get involved in the foreign policy debate by promoting the participation of the masses. The dual approach of quantitative and qualitative content analysis of online news articles, statements and policy documents produced interesting results about the factors that motivate trade union interests in the South African foreign policy process. The main findings show that South African trade union organisations attempt to influence or engage in the economic and foreign policy processes when it affects their members. Their economic focus is on the extent to which economic factors have a bearing on how the macro-economic policy of the state favours the wealth and development of its citizens over the financial gain of international investors. Interesting findings are presented by the political factors that have a bearing on trade union organisations‟ roles in the foreign policy process of South Africa. The results show that trade union organisations have an inherent interest in the strengthening of democratic values, governance and the protection of human rights. Similar to the analysis of economic factors, it was found that South African trade unions show a greater interest in foreign policy events or issues that affect trade unions or workers domestically or in other states. This can be attributed to the strong sense of solidarity among trade union organisations for greater representation in political and policy processes. The findings of this study imply that South African trade union organisations are part of a growing trend among non-state actors and domestic interest groups that take an interest in issues and events beyond national borders. The results of this study correspond with arguments made in existing literature that South Africa trade union organisations play a minimal role in the making of foreign policy.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die rol en invloed van belangegroepe en niestaatsrolspelers in die vorming van buitelandse beleid bly 'n interessante onderwerp vir bespreking. Hierdie studie verken die rol van drie Suid-Afrikaanse vakbondorganisasies – Cosatu, Fedusa en Solidariteit – in die ontwikkeling van die land se buitelandse beleid. Dit ondersoek die rol wat hierdie organisasies tussen 1999 en 2012 in buitelandse beleid gespeel het, en die faktore wat daardie rol beïnvloed het. Die kernargument van hierdie studie is dat vakbondorganisasies hul lede sowel as die groter publiek van kwessies met betrekking tot buitelandse beleid help bewus maak. Deurdat hulle massadeelname aanmoedig, word die organisasies op hulle beurt by die debat oor buitelandse beleid betrek. Die dubbele benadering van kwantitatiewe én kwalitatiewe inhoudsontleding van aanlyn nuusberigte, verklarings en beleidsdokumente bring interessante resultate oor die redes vir vakbondbelangstelling in Suid-Afrikaanse buitelandse beleid aan die lig. Die hoofbevindinge toon dat Suid-Afrikaanse vakbondorganisasies die vorming van ekonomiese en buitelandse beleid probeer beïnvloed of daaraan deelneem wanneer dit hul lede raak. Ekonomies konsentreer hulle veral op die mate waarin die makro-ekonomiese beleid van die staat die welvaart en ontwikkeling van sy burgers bo finansiële gewin vir internasionale beleggers stel. Dit is egter veral die politieke beweegredes vir vakbonddeelname aan die land se buitelandse beleid wat insiggewende resultate oplewer. Die studie bevind dat vakbonde 'n inherente belang het by die versterking van demokratiese waardes en bestuur, en die beskerming van menseregte. Soos met die ekonomiese faktore, dui die ontleding van die politieke faktore ook daarop dat Suid-Afrikaanse vakbonde 'n groter belangstelling toon in gebeure of kwessies insake buitelandse beleid wat vakbonde of hul lede binnelands sowel as in ander state raak. Dít kan toegeskryf word aan die sterk samehorigheidsgevoel onder vakbondorganisasies om gesamentlik beter verteenwoordiging in politieke en beleidsprosesse te bekom. Die bevindinge van hierdie studie impliseer dat Suid-Afrikaanse vakbondorganisasies deel uitmaak van 'n toenemende tendens onder niestaatsrolspelers en binnelandse belangegroepe om al hoe meer in kwessies en gebeure buite landsgrense belang te stel. Die resultate van die studie ooreenstem met die argumente gestel in bestaande literatuur dat Suid-Afrikaanse vakbond organisasies ʼn beperkte rol binne buitelandse-beleidsmaking speel.

The two decades preceding the global financial crisis of 2008 saw an increase in international migration flows. This development was accompanied by the relaxation of immigration entry controls for select categories of foreign workers across the developed world. The scale of labour immigration, and the categories of foreign workers granted entry, varied considerably across states. To some extent, these developments transcended the traditional classifications of comparative immigration politics. This thesis examines the reform process in two states with contrasting policy legacies that adopted liberal labour immigration selection and control policies during the abovementioned period. The instrumental role that immigration has played in the process of nation-building in Australia has led it to be classified as a 'traditional destination state' with a positive immigration policy legacy. By contrast, immigration has not been significant in the formation of national identity in the United Kingdom. It has a more negative immigration policy legacy and is generally regarded as a 'reluctant state'. Examining the reasons for liberal shifts in labour immigration policy in two states with different immigration politics allows insights to be gained into the processes of policy-making and the dynamics that underpin it. In Australia, labour immigration controls were relaxed incrementally and through a deliberative process. Reform was justified on the grounds that it fulfilled economic needs and objectives, and was consistent with an accepted definition of the national interest. In the UK, liberal shifts in labour immigration policy were the incidental consequence of the pursuit of objectives in other policy areas. Reform was implemented unilaterally, and in an uncoordinated manner characterised by an absence of consultation. The contrast in the manner in which reform was managed by the various actors, institutions and stakeholders involved in the process both reflected, and served to reinforce, the immigration policy legacies of the two states. Moreover, the Howard government used Australia's positive legacy to construct a coherent narrative to justify the implementation of liberal reform. This generated greater immediate and lasting support for its reforms among stakeholders and the broader community. By contrast, lacking a similarly positive legacy, the Blair government in the UK found it difficult to create such a narrative, which contributed to the unpopularity of its reforms. This thesis therefore argues that policy legacies had a significant impact on the processes and dynamics that shaped labour immigration selection and control decisions during the recent wave of international migration. The cases demonstrate that a nation's past immigration policy experiences shape its policy-making structures, as well as institutional and stakeholder policy preferences, which are core constituent components of a nation's immigration politics. The UK case shows that even when reluctant states implement liberal labour immigration policies, these characteristics tend to create feedback effects that make it difficult for reform to be durable. The relationship between immigration policy and politics thus becomes self-reinforcing. But this does not necessarily mean that states' immigration politics are rigid, since the institutions that help to make a nation's immigration policy and shape its politics will inevitably undergo a process of adaptation in response to changing contexts.

The Accord was a political exchange whereby the labour leadership participated in the wage restraint programme in return for consultative rights and specific quid pro quo policies, including countercyclical measures to offset fiscal austerity. The President subsequently sustained a policy of fiscal and monetary restraint despite the approaching election and the increasing protests of organized labour. However, in the face of strong opposition from some of Carter's senior economists, the labour leaders secured significant modifications to the second year of the pay standard. The 1980 presidential election renewed incentives for continuing cooperation when economic policy otherwise jeopardized relations.

Partnership has enjoyed fresh attention since the 1990s and consequently is a growing yet increasingly fragmented area of research. With the incoming Labour Government in 1997, policy has aimed to replace conflict with co-operation in employee relations. Partnership is an approach to managing the employment relationship based on the search for common ground between management, employees and their representatives and involves the development of long-term relationships built on high levels of trust and respect. Approaches to, and models of, partnership are still at a formative stage with no consensus on how partnership develops effectively. Despite the recognition that to understand partnership fully the study of the processes involved is necessary, little is known about these processes involved. Furthermore, the current body of literature on partnership in a UK context is limited in terms of its theoretical basis. The research set out to identify through which theoretical mechanisms partnership works. Informed by social exchange theory, the study examines the viability of partnership within the NHS and attempts to understand the conditions for its successful development. Two stages of empirical research using a mainly qualitative design were conducted. The first stage of fieldwork involved a preliminary investigation of the introduction of partnership in the National Health Service. The aim of this stage was to trace the introduction of partnership and to understand its antecedents and what had set out to achieve using data from eleven in depth interviews with key players at national, regional and local levels throughout the service. Stage two followed a case study approach and investigated the development of partnership in four NHS Acute Trusts. This stage involved a range of techniques (i.e. semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and documentation) examining the views of fifty five respondents from management and trade union representatives across the four Trusts and used data from 543 questionnaires to investigate employee's experiences of partnership. The study contributes to the partnership literature on the developmental processes of partnerships by utilising social exchange theory to better understand the viability of partnership. In particular, examining partnership from a social exchange perspective enabled a deeper understanding of the decision processes involved when deciding whether to co-operate. The study demonstrates that the theory (and its related concepts) can be helpful in examining the viability of partnership in understanding the mechanisms that lead to its successful development and the maintenance of the relationship over time. In assessing the viability of partnership, the thesis identifies the conditions under which partnership produces its effects and demonstrates how these differed in terms of changes in both the climate and the behaviour and attitudes of participants. In sum, the idea of social exchange would seem to provide an underpinning rationale for partnership. Some support for a new and expanding role for the trade union involving jOint work in developing policies was found. Trade unions appear to have a legitimate role in the relationship which is on the whole accepted by key management and trade union players. However, the union role has a low profile amongst managers and employees and trade unions lacked the organisation needed for partnership to be effective. Moreover, if trade unions are going to reap the potential rewards of partnership there should be a continuing effort to address the problems of capacity and capability (by increasing the numbers and capability of union representatives) in order to raise the profile and acceptance of the union among management and employees. In addition, there is a requirement for adequate training and support to ensure that these representatives have the attitude, skills and confidence to become effective representatives of the workforce.

This thesis explores the influence of the Australian Labor Party's (ALP's) national factions on Party policy. The specific emphasis is on policy development during Labor's 1996-2004 period in opposition. Through a total of 88 interviews, predominantly with members of Caucus including Kim Beazley, Simon Crean and Mark Latham, this thesis has been able to examine not only the formal policy development processes but, significantly, also the informal processes within the Party. The thesis begins with an overview of the national factions' organisation and operations in relation to policy development in both the organisational and parliamentary wings. It concentrates on exploring how the informal processes of the faction system dominate the formal Party structures, and demonstrates how the factional elite control these decision-making forums. The thesis then concentrates on analysing in-depth the factional influences on policies developed within the Immigration, Trade and Family and Community Services portfolios. These case studies were selected because they provoked debate, to varying degrees, in the Party. An understanding of how consensus was reached among the diverse perspectives, particularly between the factions, within the Party is critical to exploring the relationship between the national factions and policy development. The case studies cover a range of policy development modes, and therefore provide ample opportunity to explore factional dynamics in relation to policy formulation under different circumstances throughout the 1996-2004 period. This thesis utilises Arend Lijphart's theory of the Politics of Accommodation, which was originally developed to explain inter-party negotiations within the Dutch coalition government during the twentieth century. This theory is relevant to the study of the ALP's modern factions because, similar to the Dutch political system, the faction system operates on the power-sharing principle of proportional representation (PR). By applying Lijphart's theoretical framework, this thesis provides a rigorous and comprehensive analysis of the ALP's factional dynamics in relation to policy. It gives an in-depth analysis of the elite control of the faction system in the domain of policy development. It demonstrates that faction leaders resolve contentious policy issues by negotiating in a 'spirit of accommodation' and when the factions adopt a policy position, the unwritten rules of the 'factional game' are applied to ensure the national factions reach a consensus on Party policy. Given that the national factions compete for power and sometimes pursue a different set of policy objectives, this 'spirit of accommodation' appears to be paradoxical; this palliative application of factional power is arguably in contrast to the general perception of faction politics. Through the presentation and analysis of original primary data this thesis makes a valuable contribution to the study of the ALP and factions in general, significantly advancing existing knowledge.

This thesis explores the influence of the Australian Labor Party's (ALP's) national factions on Party policy. The specific emphasis is on policy development during Labor's 1996-2004 period in opposition. Through a total of 88 interviews, predominantly with members of Caucus including Kim Beazley, Simon Crean and Mark Latham, this thesis has been able to examine not only the formal policy development processes but, significantly, also the informal processes within the Party. The thesis begins with an overview of the national factions' organisation and operations in relation to policy development in both the organisational and parliamentary wings. It concentrates on exploring how the informal processes of the faction system dominate the formal Party structures, and demonstrates how the factional elite control these decision-making forums. The thesis then concentrates on analysing in-depth the factional influences on policies developed within the Immigration, Trade and Family and Community Services portfolios. These case studies were selected because they provoked debate, to varying degrees, in the Party. An understanding of how consensus was reached among the diverse perspectives, particularly between the factions, within the Party is critical to exploring the relationship between the national factions and policy development. The case studies cover a range of policy development modes, and therefore provide ample opportunity to explore factional dynamics in relation to policy formulation under different circumstances throughout the 1996-2004 period. This thesis utilises Arend Lijphart's theory of the Politics of Accommodation, which was originally developed to explain inter-party negotiations within the Dutch coalition government during the twentieth century. This theory is relevant to the study of the ALP's modern factions because, similar to the Dutch political system, the faction system operates on the power-sharing principle of proportional representation (PR). By applying Lijphart's theoretical framework, this thesis provides a rigorous and comprehensive analysis of the ALP's factional dynamics in relation to policy. It gives an in-depth analysis of the elite control of the faction system in the domain of policy development. It demonstrates that faction leaders resolve contentious policy issues by negotiating in a 'spirit of accommodation' and when the factions adopt a policy position, the unwritten rules of the 'factional game' are applied to ensure the national factions reach a consensus on Party policy. Given that the national factions compete for power and sometimes pursue a different set of policy objectives, this 'spirit of accommodation' appears to be paradoxical; this palliative application of factional power is arguably in contrast to the general perception of faction politics. Through the presentation and analysis of original primary data this thesis makes a valuable contribution to the study of the ALP and factions in general, significantly advancing existing knowledge.
Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
Full Text

This thesis examines how New Labour policymakers and Black and Minority Ethnic (BME)-led race equality organisations articulated and connected themes of nation, multiculture and ‘race’ equality in policy discourse and discussions over the New Labour period. My study extends previous accounts of New Labour and multicultural discourses by incorporating the significant, but not always influential, role of BME civil society actors in such policy discussions. My research draws on documents and archival material from and interviews with policymakers and race equality actors. I analyse this data using a qualitative thematic approach to discern changing policy discourses and claims about the state of the multicultural nation and the place of race equality within it. In the study I suggest that, after a promising start, New Labour policymakers came to understand the relationship between nation, multiculture and race equality as a troubled and troubling one. At the same time, the three BME-led race equality organisations that I focus on in my research struggled to counter government discourses of parallel lives, community cohesion and Britishness that were detrimental to efforts to combat race inequality. Policy and policy discursive interventions of BME-led race equality organisations were thrown off course not only by New Labour but also by ‘new ethnicities’, and the idea of complex and diverse BMEness’. BME-led organisations have struggled to engage with this latter destabilisation, let alone develop a politics capable of overcoming such issues. I therefore end my thesis by suggesting that, if BME-led race equality organisations are to shape policy debates on race equality, there is much hard labour and re-thinking about BMEness and re-organising for them still to do.

AbstractIn wake of the 1970s energy crisis, labour markets in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries changed considerably: deindustrialisation, low economic growth, and high structural unemployment challenged the standard employment relationship (SER), and a flexibilisation of employment was promoted. Tertiarisation and increasing female labour market participation fuelled the spread of non-standard forms of employment (NSER) such as part-time and temporary work. Since the 1990s, EU member countries aligned their NSER regulation to that of the SER, while in other OECD countries, NSERs remained un(der)regulated. The chapter illustrates the transformation of labour markets and the development of NSER regulation for selected countries, relying on national Labour Force Surveys and the Cambridge Labour Regulation Index. It tells the story of how membership in a supranational organisation has shaped national labour legislation.

AbstractSince the beginning of modern social policy in Argentina in the early 20th century, concerns about the loss of economic competitiveness of domestic industries had been an important argument against the introduction of labour policies. In the 1930s, however, the Argentinean government acceded to some important international labour conventions while business leaders promoted their own projects to improve labour safety and better working conditions at their facilities. This turnaround by the ruling conservative political elites and economic liberals can only be understood by considering transnational influences, particularly the triangular relationship between Argentina, the US, and the International Labour Organisation. Using the example of occupational accident legislation, this chapter shows how a social policy flagship was used as a tool to project the image of a modern, progressive nation that complied with international labour standards.

AbstractOne cornerstone of the economic miracle China experienced after 1978 was domestic migrant labour. Through the incremental liberalisation of migration control, rural residents had been allowed to move to urban coastal areas. This chapter is centred on the issue of social protection for migrant workers. First, we look at the origins of the problem, which lie in the household registration system. Second, we describe how during the first phase of economic reform, migrant workers were precluded from participating in urban welfare, and were inadequately protected by rudimentary rural welfare. Third, we then show how, under national and international pressure to alleviate the situation for migrant workers, social protection for this group has been expanded to a certain degree.

AbstractThis chapter presents a critical analysis of the capacity of the nation-state to develop and implement effective policy interventions on behalf of national labour interests in highly globalized industries. This follows the consistent observation that, under neoliberal capitalism, governments have lacked the power and/or will to implement pro-labour legislation in the same way as they have done for capital (Fourcades-Gourinchas and Babb 2002; Peck 2004; Kotz 2015). This discussion is developed with reference to the Tonnage Tax policy, introduced by the UK government in 2000, as the key policy strategy to revitalize the ailing shipping industry (Department for Transport 1998). In the broadest terms, the strategy is a tax concession designed to attract British ship owners to re-flag their ships to the UK national register, retain the majority of their ship management in the UK and train British seafarer cadets (Selkou and Roe 2002; Brownrigg et al. 2001; Gekara 2010). The core of the strategy, i.e. the tax element, represents an alternative system of calculating corporation tax for shipping companies based on fixed rates and with reference to a shipping company’s total operating tonnage per year rather than its total income, which represents a highly reduced rate of taxation. To specifically address the decline in the British national seafarer labour market and the supply of British officers, a Minimum Training Obligation (MTO) was included for all British-registered ships, which simultaneously incentivized and compelled shipping companies to increase their cadet recruitment and training activities (Selkou and Roe 2002).

The number of the country's population has significantly decreased in the Baltic States over the last fifteen years, experiencing the highest wave of emigration in the years of the economic crisis, when many residents went to other countries to ensure higher incomes and material well-being in general. In the Baltic States, emigrants are mainly people of working age. This has an impact on the labour market and the national economy as a whole. As the role of the labour force in the formation of the national economy is very high, it is important to make correct and balanced decisions about the measures aimed at returning the labour force to the country, forming the remigration policy. The aim of the study is to analyse the remigration policy in the Baltic States in the context of general migration trends. The current study proposes the following hypothesis - the remigration policy in the Baltic States has been developed according to similar principles and includes a similar set of measure. The following research methods support the study: logicalconstructive method, scientific induction method, statistical data analysis method and graphical data processing method.

The publication is dedicated to considering the features of social policy and mechanisms of social protection in the event of unemployment in the developed countries of the world, which have undergone changes as a result of the slowdown in economic growth and the strengthening of the influence of institutional factors. The consequences of the liberalization of reforms in the labour market are studied, with the identification of priorities for the institutionalization of national social policy, especially in the case of unemployment. In connection with the extractive nature of the national labour market in Ukraine, inclusive development with an emphasis on the formation of an inclusive employment policy and social protection of the population is of particular importance. This approach corresponds to modern world concepts of economic development and is relevant in connection with the further search for ways to restore the economy and the social sphere after military operations. The author's approach to overcoming the problems of unemployment and informal employment consists in expanding the coverage of the population by social protection with the development of stimulating the exit from the state of the beneficiary, which consists in reducing the barriers of social and labour inclusion of women, single parents, young people, persons with disabilities, transition from informal employment to formal, increased dependence between employment and access to social benefits.

Abstract The regulation of Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) in Nigeria, which is currently seeing some progress in the formal sector, has been short of impressive in the informal sector of the economy. Con- sidering it is the role of every government to ensure that all sectors of the economy operate in a manner that guarantees and ensures the safety and well-being of its citizens, Article 4 of International Labour Organization (ILO) Convention No. 155- Occupational Safety and Health Convention was ratified by the Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (FRN) in 1994, which led to the development of a coherent National Policy on Occupational Safety and Health in 2006. This, inter alia, failed to address the informal sector; hence the Revised National Policy on OSH 2020 was introduced by the Govern- ment, through the office of the Honorable Minister of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment, as a framework for bridging the existing gap. In a bid to ensure the success of the Policy document, the Department of Occupational Safety and Health of the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment was designated the Competent Authority by the Government. This paper takes a look at the stakeholders in the informal sector of the economy, focusing on the south- south part of Nigeria, and identifies some of the challenges hampering the effective implementation of Occupational Safety and Health systems needed for the promotion of safety and health at workplaces. It concludes by providing a practical tool that can be a guide for the policy users, especially in the in- formal sector of the Nigerian economy, in alignment with the second of the three determinants of the future of energy, as captured in the theme for NAICE 2021: "The Future of energy – a trilogy of de- terminants; Climate Change, Public Health, and the Global Oil Market".

The article discusses the importance of the employment policy and directions for the improvement of higher education in Georgia. Employment policy can be defined as a set of programs and opportunities through which the state tries to increase the employment rate in the country. Ensuring the effective employment of the population is extremely important for accelerating the economic development in the country and solving existing social problems. It is important to focus on the formation of human capital when conducting employment policy. Human capital is the main factor in the formation of innovative economy and knowledge economy as a post-development high level. It is influenced by education, knowledge, skills, competencies, attitudes, health and well-being. Investing in human capital, as well as investing in physical capital, increases the labor productivity of individuals, it has a significant impact on the quantitative and qualitative development of working capacity. The availability of qualified workforce ensures both the increase of labor productivity and the attraction of investments in production. Keywords: employment policy, human capital, learning outcomes, higher education, investments.

The efficiency wage theory states that the workers’ productivity depends on their wages, thus firms find beneficial to pay higher than the market clearing wages by expecting an increase in labour productivity. Hence, this alterative approach to orthodox economic theory assumes a reversed causality established between wages and labour productivity. The efficiency wage models take into account the potential influence of institutional arrangements. For instance, the ICT industry characteristics such as possibility for platform work affect wage levels and contribute to paying wage premium (exposure to the global competition). The evolution of real wages in North Macedonia over the last decade shows an outstanding inter-industry wage differentials, where Information and communication; and Finance and insurance appear as sectors with constantly high average real wages compared to the national average level. In order to explore the possible reversed causation between labour productivity and real wages, we estimate a homogeneous panel vector autoregression (VAR) model by fitting a multivariate panel regression of each dependent variable on lags of itself and on lags of other dependent variables using generalized method of moments (GMM). The results confirm the efficiency wage theory assumption since we found statistically significant impact of real wages on labour productivity and not vice-versa. This conclusion opens a wide room for justifying the policies that favour increases of real wages by tying them to increases in productivity. The identified wage premium, particularly from working in the ICT sector, suggests that the policy need to focus on stimulating widespread adoption of digital technologies across other sectors through education and training.

The pandemic has caused the near collapse of the already weak Indian public education system. Prolonged school closures along with caste, gender, and economic marginalisation are forcing children to endure malnutrition, physical and mental health challenges, child labour, and early marriages, in addition to learning deprivation. The system’s response has not reached the grassroots. NGOs across the country provide services at the ground level, but national-level coordination is insufficient. This paper studies the National Coalition on the Education Emergency (NCEE), established by individuals and groups from across India, as a case of building macro-resilience, emphasising principles of equity, universal access, humane education, decentralised decision-making, and public investment. Through a critical examination of the work done by the NCEE on curating curricular resources (OERs), conducting and compiling research studies, developing policy tracking tools, networking with partners and collaborators, creating larger awareness, social mobilisation, advocacy and interacting with governments to inform their programs and policies, the paper will discuss challenges in the Indian education system and the attempts to address them within a federal state structure. It looks at why an integrated nationwide response to the crisis is necessary.

Productivity is one of the main factors for economic growth and competitiveness and is widely used in national performance assessments and international comparisons. Human capital is one of the most important factors in increasing productivity. Investment in human capital is needed to increase productivity. From the government side, this can be achieved through tax policy, which include not only personal income taxes, but also tax rebates and refunds, as well as tax credits. To find the most efficient action model, it is necessary to find a tool to assess the impact of tax initiatives on productivity. The aim of this study is to assess whether and how tax policy could further improve productivity, particularly by development of human capital. The study’s authors used multiple non-linear regression method to evaluate impact of tax initiatives to labour productivity. The objective of the study is to assess the impact of taxes on productivity and possible tax credits or other more optimal tax solutions, to assess the potential personal income tax initiatives for professional growth. The study’s findings indicate that personal income tax rebates should be modified more economically than socially to encourage the professional development of human capital and increase labour productivity. The results for the Baltic States indicate that by granting a tax credit and lowering taxes by one percent, productivity might increase by two to three percent, while in countries with higher initial productivity levels, the impact is significantly smaller or even neutral.

Purpose – to study the possibilities of institutional theory to establish a modern theory of economic growth, including the factors of institutions and technologies changes. These factors are a set of rules with high coercive force to the agents’ action form a particular mode/model of their adaptation, together with other institutions. Research Methodology – the neoclassical models of economic growth, which may include institutional factors and to study their impact on the growth and change of the factors, into the business practice are applied. The key scientific problem is to choose the right market Institute for a proper way of technological development. The authors use the micro-level analysis of the agents and institutions’ interaction in the process of new technologies appearance. Morphological and taxonomic analysis in order to highlight the models of technological development and economic growth had been applied. Findings – the research results may enrich an economic theory and practice in the area of business models applicability. The findings may assist a business community to influence the general technological development within the national institutional systems. Research limitations – due to the fact that different institutions, structures and technologies act on the economic dynamics at the same time, separating their influence is an independent scientific problem that is not solved in all cases. However, the set of considered institutional factors forms and provides a kind of “manufacturability” of economic growth. Practical implications – the so-called institutional macroeconomics as a practical discipline (which has a very close connection with behavioural macroeconomics) may assist to explore the economic growth from the point of view of changing institutions (firms, business community), labour markets and information – technical and technological changes. Originality/Value – the value of the research consists in the systematization of institutional factors affecting the economic growth, conducting a morphological structural analysis of growth types, which allow identifying eight main growth trajectories in business activity.

A number of state and public organizations take part in pursuing cultural policy and protection of rights of compatriots in the countries of the Caspian region. Russian-speaking communities abroad are regarded as components of " the Russian World" - a civilizational community that unites them around Russia as a historical and cultural centre. The preservation of the Russian language in the post-Soviet states is focused on the studying of the language by the titular peoples of sovereign states as the language of interstate communication with Russia and to ensure favourable conditions for labour migration to Russia. In the Caspian states the status of the Russian-speaking community is constantly declining and decreasing, as well as its cultural role in the life of the independent national states. In a long run, this reduces the base of the functioning of the Russian language in the Caspian countries. The Russian World state project is officially presented as a project on preserving the Russian language in the countries where Russian communities exist. At the same time the analysis of documents and information portals, related to the Russian World program, demonstrates that the policy of the Russian Federation focused on the repatriation of ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking people to Russia lines up with their migration activity.

This policy brief answers three main questions with respect to the no-user-fee policy adopted across public health centres in Jamaica: (i) Has the policy improved health status among working age adults? (ii) Has the policy influenced labour market dynamics? (iii) Has the policy had differential effects by age groups? Evidence suggests that the policy improved overall health status, as the likelihood of suffering illnesses associated with inability to carry out normal activities decreased by 28.6 percent. In addition, the number of days where people were unable to perform normal activities due to illnesses suffered within the previous four weeks decreased by 34 percent. Regarding labour market dynamics, no effects are found on the likelihood of being employed or contributing to the National Insurance Scheme. However, consistent with a reduced number of days lost due to illnesses, we find a positive effect of 2.15 additional weekly labour hours. Finally, we find that all of these positive effects are concentrated within adults in the 40-64 year-old age range. Overall, these effects suggest that the policy added a yearly average of US$PPP 26.6 million worth of net real production to the Jamaican economy during the period 2008-12.

The Gender-Sensitive Risks and Options Assessment for Decision Making (ROAD) to Support WiF-2 (ROAD migration project), a partnership coordinated by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Australian National University, American University Beirut, Lincoln University, and University of Dhaka, evaluated the ILO-DFID Partnership Programme on Fair Recruitment and Decent Work for Women Migrant Workers in South Asia and the Middle East (Work in Freedom, Phase 2 project [WiF-2]), which operated from 2018 to 2023. The WiF-2 project specifically aimed “to reduce vulnerability to trafficking and forced labour of women and girls across migration pathways leading to the care sector and textiles, clothing, leather and footwear industries (TCLFI) of South Asia and Arab States” (ToC WiF-2).

Despite the significant impact of the pandemic’s fourth wave, Vietnam’s overall strategy was seen as well planned with one of the lowest infection rates globally in 2020–2021. In June 2019, an estimated 540,000 Vietnamese migrant workers were recorded working legally in 40 countries and territories, making Vietnam a major labour exporter and one of the top ten countries to receive international remittances. Our research shows how Vietnam’s Covid-19 policy response has influenced Vietnamese migrant workers and counter-trafficking work, particularly in border areas. The research discussed four main findings. Firstly, border closures left many overseas migrant workers vulnerable and led them to rely on people smugglers. Secondly, the suspension of commercial international flights and a lack of transparency and favouritism in allocating seats on repatriation flights left many stranded. Thirdly, the national pandemic response plan suffered from limitations. Lastly, Covid-19 policies have led to new trafficking trends and challenges. Based on this evidence, the research suggests that digitalising and modernising social services could strengthen the inclusion of vulnerable groups, simplify the administrative and management process, save costs, and reduce corruption. Participation of vulnerable groups, especially ethnic minorities and overseas migrant workers, including fishers, should be ensured in national policy design and local implementation. Additionally, improving transparency and accountability of support systems could help gain citizens’ trust in the government, which would be beneficial for future crisis responses.

Traditionally, labour concerns have not been top-of-mind when considering competition policy, but the current approach to wage-fixing, anti-poaching, and anti-mobility agreements between firms has been one of the main reasons behind recent Parliamentary attention to competition policy and labour markets. Key stakeholders in academic and policy circles have called for more robust enforcement regarding monopsony / oligopsony power in labour markets, when assessing mergers and acquisitions for example, as well as regarding market power in labour representation (unions) and certification as entry barriers in labour markets. The objective here is to identify the numerous challenges and pitfalls in assessing the level of competition on labour markets, both supply and demand, and in addressing remedies if necessary.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

This presentation was commissioned by the Environment Network of the Regional Policy Dialogue for the III Hemispheric Meeting celebrated on March 9th and 10th, 2004. There are very productive shrimp stocks in the surrounding gulf waters. They support a large fishery which produces valuable food for national consumption and export. In 1991 it employed 13% of Campeche's total labor force.