Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Multi-hazard flooding scenarios »
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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Multi-hazard flooding scenarios"
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Hadipour, Vahid, Freydoon Vafaie et Kaveh Deilami. « Coastal Flooding Risk Assessment Using a GIS-Based Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Approach ». Water 12, no 9 (25 août 2020) : 2379. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12092379.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Coastal areas are expected to be at a higher risk of flooding when climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) is combined with episodic rises in sea level. Flood susceptibility mapping (FSM), mostly based on statistical and machine learning methods, has been widely employed to mitigate flood risk; however, they neglect exposure and vulnerability assessment as the key components of flood risk. Flood risk assessment is often conducted by quantitative methods (e.g., probabilistic). Such assessment uses analytical and empirical techniques to construct the physical vulnerability curves of elements at risk, but the role of people’s capacity, depending on social vulnerability, remains limited. To address this gap, this study developed a semiquantitative method, based on the spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (SMCDA). The model combines two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, and factors triggering coastal flooding in Bandar Abbas, Iran. It also employs an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model to weight indicators of hazard, exposure, and social vulnerability components. Under the most extreme flooding scenario, 14.8% of flooded areas were identified as high and very high risk, mostly located in eastern, western, and partly in the middle of the City. The results of this study can be employed by decision-makers to apply appropriate risk reduction strategies in high-risk flooding zones.
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Bhola, Punit K., Jorge Leandro et Markus Disse. « Building hazard maps with differentiated risk perception for flood impact assessment ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20, no 10 (6 octobre 2020) : 2647–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2647-2020.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract. In operational flood risk management, a single best model is used to assess the impact of flooding, which might misrepresent uncertainties in the modelling process. We have used quantified uncertainties in flood forecasting to generate flood hazard maps that were combined based on different exceedance probability scenarios. The purpose is to differentiate the impacts of flooding depending on the building use, enabling, therefore, more flexibility for stakeholders' variable risk perception profiles. The aim of the study is thus to develop a novel methodology that uses a multi-model combination of flood forecasting models to generate flood hazard maps with differentiated exceedance probability. These maps take into account uncertainties stemming from the rainfall–runoff generation process and could be used by decision makers for a variety of purposes in which the building use plays a significant role, e.g. flood impact assessment, spatial planning, early warning and emergency planning.
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Fabris, Massimo. « Monitoring the Coastal Changes of the Po River Delta (Northern Italy) since 1911 Using Archival Cartography, Multi-Temporal Aerial Photogrammetry and LiDAR Data : Implications for Coastline Changes in 2100 A.D. » Remote Sensing 13, no 3 (2 février 2021) : 529. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13030529.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Interaction between land subsidence and sea level rise (SLR) increases the hazard in coastal areas, mainly for deltas, characterized by flat topography and with great social, ecological, and economic value. Coastal areas need continuous monitoring as a support for human intervention to reduce the hazard. Po River Delta (PRD, northern Italy) in the past was affected by high values of artificial land subsidence: even if at low rates, anthropogenic settlements are currently still in progress and produce an increase of hydraulic risk due to the loss of surface elevation both of ground and levees. Many authors have provided scenarios for the next decades with increased flooding in densely populated areas. In this work, a contribution to the understanding future scenarios based on the morphological changes that occurred in the last century on the PRD coastal area is provided: planimetric variations are reconstructed using two archival cartographies (1911 and 1924), 12 multi-temporal high-resolution aerial photogrammetric surveys (1933, 1944, 1949, 1955, 1962, 1969, 1977, 1983, 1990, 1999, 2008, and 2014), and four LiDAR (light detection and ranging) datasets (acquired in 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2018): obtained results, in terms of emerged surfaces variations, are linked to the available land subsidence rates (provided by leveling, GPS—global positioning system, and SAR—synthetic aperture radar data) and to the expected SLR values, to perform scenarios of the area by 2100: results of this work will be useful to mitigate the hazard by increasing defense systems and preventing the risk of widespread flooding.
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Gallegos Reina, Antonio, et María Jesús Perles Roselló. « Relationships between Peri-Urbanization Processes and Multi-Hazard Increases : Compared Diachronic Analysis in Basins of the Mediterranean Coast ». ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 10, no 11 (10 novembre 2021) : 759. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10110759.
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This paper analyzes the relationships between the peri-urbanization process in the surroundings of cities and the increase in the synergistic dangers of flooding and water erosion. An analysis and an evaluation of the conditions causing the flooding in peri-urban basins are carried out, comparing the conditions before and after the peri-urbanization process. For this purpose, a diachronic analysis of the morphological and functional conditions of the territory that conditions flooding and associated dangers is provided. The conditions for the generation of runoff, the incorporation of solids into the flood flow, and the characteristics of urban planning are evaluated in 1956 (date before the peri-urbanization process) and 2010 (the peak of the urbanization process in the area) in order to analyze the changes in the land use model and their consequences on the increase in risk. The study is applied to four river basins (44 km2 in total) with varied land use models, in order to collect representative scenarios of the peri-urban coastal basins of the Spanish Mediterranean region. The results show that the risk factors that undergo the most significant changes are the runoff threshold, the vegetation cover, and the soil structure. It is concluded that peri-urbanization constitutes a territorial risk-causing process, and attention is drawn to the convenience of going beyond the sectoral approach in the study of hazards, coming to understand them as a multi-hazard process in which causes have a direct relationship with the underlying territorial model.
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Mesta, Carlos, Gemma Cremen et Carmine Galasso. « Quantifying the potential benefits of risk-mitigation strategies on future flood losses in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 23, no 2 (21 février 2023) : 711–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-711-2023.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract. Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions worldwide due to rapid urbanization and climate change if adequate risk-mitigation (or climate-change-adaptation) measures are not implemented. However, the exact benefits of these measures remain unknown or inadequately quantified for potential future events in some flood-prone areas such as Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, which this paper addresses. This study examines the present (2021) and future (2031) flood risk in Kathmandu Valley, considering two flood occurrence cases (with 100-year and 1000-year mean return periods) and using four residential exposure inventories representing the current urban system (Scenario A) or near-future development trajectories (Scenarios B, C, D) that Kathmandu Valley could experience. The findings reveal substantial mean absolute financial losses (EUR 473 million and 775 million in repair and reconstruction costs) and mean loss ratios (2.8 % and 4.5 %) for the respective flood occurrence cases in current times if the building stock's quality is assumed to have remained the same as in 2011 (Scenario A). Under a “no change” pathway for 2031 (Scenario B), where the vulnerability of the expanding building stock remains the same as in 2011, mean absolute financial losses would increase by 14 %–16 % over those of Scenario A. However, a minimum (0.20 m) elevation of existing residential buildings located in the floodplains and the implementation of flood-hazard-informed land-use planning for 2031 (Scenario C) could decrease the mean absolute financial losses of the flooding occurrences by 9 %–13 % and the corresponding mean loss ratios by 23 %–27 %, relative to those of Scenario A. Moreover, an additional improvement of the building stock's vulnerability that accounts for the multi-hazard-prone nature of the valley (by means of structural retrofitting and building code enforcement) for 2031 (Scenario D) could further decrease the mean loss ratios by 24 %–28 % relative to those of Scenario A. The largest mean loss ratios computed in the four scenarios are consistently associated with populations of the highest incomes, which are largely located in the floodplains. In contrast, the most significant benefits of risk mitigation (i.e., largest reduction in mean absolute financial losses or mean loss ratios between scenarios) are experienced by populations of the lowest incomes. This paper's main findings can inform decision makers about the benefits of investing in forward-looking multi-hazard risk-mitigation efforts.
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Mladineo, Nenad, Marko Mladineo, Elena Benvenuti, Toni Kekez et Željana Nikolić. « Methodology for the Assessment of Multi-Hazard Risk in Urban Homogenous Zones ». Applied Sciences 12, no 24 (14 décembre 2022) : 12843. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app122412843.
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The multi-hazard risk assessment of urban areas represents a comprehensive approach that can be used to reduce, manage and overcome the risks arising from the combination of different natural hazards. This paper presents a methodology for multi-hazard risk assessment based on Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Making. The PROMETHEE method was used to assess multi-hazard risks caused by seismic, flood and extreme sea waves impact. The methodology is applied for multi-hazard risk evaluation of the urban area of Kaštel Kambelovac, located on the Croatian coast of the Adriatic Sea. The settlement is placed in a zone of high seismic risk with a large number of old stone historical buildings which are vulnerable to the earthquakes. Being located along the low-lying coast, this area is also threatened by floods due to climate change-induced sea level rises. Furthermore, the settlement is exposed to flooding caused by extreme sea waves generated by severe wind. In the present contribution, the multi-hazard risk is assessed for different scenarios and different levels, based on exposure and vulnerability for each of the natural hazards and the influence of additional criteria to the overall risk in homogenous zones. Single-risk analysis has shown that the seismic risk is dominant for the whole pilot area. The results of multi-hazard assessment have shown that in all combinations the highest risk is present in the historical part of Kaštel Kambelovac. This is because the historical part is most exposed to sea floods and extreme waves, as well as due to the fact that a significant number of historical buildings is located in this area.
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Fan, An, Li, Li, Deng et Li. « An Approach Based on the Protected Object for Dam-Break Flood Risk Management Exemplified at the Zipingpu Reservoir ». International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no 19 (8 octobre 2019) : 3786. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16193786.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Dam-break flooding is a potential hazard for reservoirs that poses a considerable threat to human lives and property in downstream areas. Assessing the dam-break flood risk of the Zipingpu Reservoir in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China, is critically important because this reservoir is located on the Longmen Shan fault, which experiences high seismic activity. In this paper, we develop an approach based on the protected object for dam-break flood risk management. First, we perform a numerical simulation of dam-break flooding in four possible dam break scenarios. Next, the flood areas are divided into 71 analysis units based on the administrative division. Based on the numerical simulation results and the socio-economic demographic data affected by a flood, the importance and risk level of each analysis unit is confirmed, and the flood risk map is established according to the classification results. Finally, multi-level flood risk management countermeasures are proposed according to the results of the unit classification shown in the map.
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Anzidei, Marco, Giovanni Scicchitano, Giovanni Scardino, Christian Bignami, Cristiano Tolomei, Antonio Vecchio, Enrico Serpelloni et al. « Relative Sea-Level Rise Scenario for 2100 along the Coast of South Eastern Sicily (Italy) by InSAR Data, Satellite Images and High-Resolution Topography ». Remote Sensing 13, no 6 (15 mars 2021) : 1108. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13061108.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The global sea-level rise (SLR) projections for the next few decades are the basis for developing flooding maps that depict the expected hazard scenarios. However, the spatially variable land subsidence has generally not been considered in the current projections. In this study, we use geodetic data from global navigation satellite system (GNSS), synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements (InSAR) and sea-level data from tidal stations to show the combined effects of land subsidence and SLR along the coast between Catania and Marzamemi, in south-eastern Sicily (southern Italy). This is one of the most active tectonic areas of the Mediterranean basin, which drives accelerated SLR, continuous coastal retreat and increasing effects of flooding and storms surges. We focus on six selected areas, which show valuable coastal infrastructures and natural reserves where the expected SLR in the next few years could be a potential cause of significant land flooding and morphological changes of the coastal strip. Through a multidisciplinary study, the multi-temporal flooding scenarios until 2100, have been estimated. Results are based on the spatially variable rates of vertical land movements (VLM), the topographic features of the area provided by airborne Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of SLR in the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. In addition, from the analysis of the time series of optical satellite images, a coastal retreat up to 70 m has been observed at the Ciane river mouth (Siracusa) in the time span 2001–2019. Our results show a diffuse land subsidence locally exceeding 10 ± 2.5 mm/year in some areas, due to compacting artificial landfill, salt marshes and Holocene soft deposits. Given ongoing land subsidence, a high end of RSLR in the RCP 8.5 at 0.52 ± 0.05 m and 1.52 ± 0.13 m is expected for 2050 AD and 2100 AD, respectively, with an exposed area of about 9.7 km2 that will be vulnerable to inundation in the next 80 years.
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Gigović, Ljubomir, Dragan Pamučar, Zoran Bajić et Siniša Drobnjak. « Application of GIS-Interval Rough AHP Methodology for Flood Hazard Mapping in Urban Areas ». Water 9, no 6 (24 mai 2017) : 360. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w9060360.
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Floods are natural disasters with significant socio-economic consequences. Urban areas with uncontrolled urban development, rapid population growth, an unregulated municipal system and an unplanned change of land use belong to the highly sensitive areas where floods cause devastating economic and social losses. The aim of this paper is to present a reliable GIS multi-criteria methodology for hazard zones’ mapping of flood-prone areas in urban areas. The proposed methodology is based on the combined application of geographical information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The methodology considers six factors that are relevant to the hazard of flooding in urban areas: the height, slope, distance to the sewage network, the distance from the water surface, the water table and land use. The expert evaluation takes into account the nature and severity of observed criteria, and it is tested using three scenarios: the modalities of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The first of them uses a new approach to the exploitation of uncertainty in the application of the AHP technique, the interval rough numbers (IR’AHP). The second one uses the fuzzy technique for the exploitation of uncertainty with the AHP method (F’AHP), and the third scenario contemplates the use of the traditional (crisp) AHP method. The proposed methodology is demonstrated in Palilula Municipality, Belgrade, Serbia. In the last few decades, Palilula Municipality has been repeatedly devastated by extreme flood events. These floods severely affected the transportation networks and other infrastructure. Historical flood inundation data have been used in the validation process. The final urban flood hazard map proves a satisfactory agreement between the flood hazard zones and the spatial distribution of historical floods that happened in the last 58 years. The results indicate that the scenario in which the IR’AHP methodology is used provides the highest level of compatibility with historical data on floods. The produced map showed that the areas of very high flood hazard are located on the left Danube River bank. These areas are characterized by lowland morphology, gentle slope, sewage network, expansion of impermeable locations and intense urbanization. The proposed GIS-IR’AHP methodology and the results of this study provide a good basis for developing a system of flood hazard management in urban areas and can be successfully used for spatial city development policy.
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Schlumberger, Julius, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini et Sandra Fatorić. « Developing a framework for the assessment of current and future flood risk in Venice, Italy ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no 7 (19 juillet 2022) : 2381–400. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract. Flooding causes serious impacts on the old town of Venice, its residents, and its cultural heritage. Despite this existence-defining condition, limited scientific knowledge on flood risk of the old town of Venice is available to support decisions to mitigate existing and future flood impacts. Therefore, this study proposes a risk assessment framework to provide a methodical and flexible instrument for decision-making for flood risk management in Venice. We first use a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic urban model to identify the hazard characteristics inside the city of Venice. Exposure, vulnerability, and corresponding damage are then modeled by a multi-parametric, micro-scale damage model which is adapted to the specific context of Venice with its dense urban structure and high risk awareness. Furthermore, a set of individual protection scenarios are implemented to account for possible variability in flood preparedness of the residents. This developed risk assessment framework was tested for the flood event of 12 November 2019 and proved able to reproduce flood characteristics and resulting damage well. A scenario analysis based on a meteorological event like 12 November 2019 was conducted to derive flood damage estimates for the year 2060 for a set of sea level rise scenarios in combination with a (partially) functioning storm surge barrier, the Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico (MOSE). The analysis suggests that a functioning MOSE barrier could prevent flood damage for the considered storm event and sea level scenarios almost entirely. A partially closed MOSE barrier (open Lido inlet) could reduce the damage by up to 34 % for optimistic sea level rise prognoses. However, damage could be 10 % to 600 % higher in 2060 compared to 2019 for a partial closure of the storm surge barrier, depending on different levels of individual protection.
Thèses sur le sujet "Multi-hazard flooding scenarios"
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Martinengo, Marta. « Improving some non-structural risk mitigation strategies in mountain regions : debris-flow rainfall thresholds, multi-hazard flooding scenarios and public awareness ». Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Trento, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/11572/353702.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Hydrogeological hazards are quite diffuse rainfall-induced phenomena that affect mountain regions and can severely impact these territories, producing damages and sometimes casualties. For this reason, hydrogeological risk reduction is crucial. Mitigation strategies aim to reduce hydrogeological risk to an acceptable level and can be classified into structural and non-structural measures. This work focuses on enhancing some non-structural risk mitigation measures for mountain areas: debris-flow rainfall thresholds, as a part of an Early Warning System (EWS), multivariate rainfall scenarios with multi-hazard mapping purpose and public awareness. Regarding debris-flow rainfall thresholds, an innovative calibration method, a suitable uncertainty analysis and a proper validation process are developed. The Backward Dynamical Approach (BDA), a physical-based calibration method, is introduced and a threshold is obtained for a study area. The BDA robustness is then tested by assessing the uncertainty in the threshold estimate. Finally, the calibrated threshold's reliability and its possible forecast use are assessed using a proper validation process. The findings set the stage for using the BDA approach to calibrate debris-flow rainfall thresholds usable in operational EWS. Regarding hazard mapping, a multivariate statistical model is developed to construct multivariate rainfall scenarios with a multi-hazards mapping purpose. A confluence between a debris-flow-prone creek and a flood-prone river is considered. The multivariate statistical model is built by combining the Simplified Metastatistical Extreme Value approach and a copula approach. The obtained rainfall scenarios are promising to be used to build multi-hazard maps. Finally, the public awareness within the LIFE FRANCA (Flood Risk ANticipation and Communication in the Alps) European project is briefly considered. The project action considered in this work focuses on training and communication activities aimed at providing a multidisciplinary view of hydrogeological risk through the holding of courses and seminars.
Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Multi-hazard flooding scenarios"
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Kwag, Shinyoung, et Abhinav Gupta. « Bayesian Network Technique in Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Multiple Hazards ». Dans 2016 24th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone24-60723.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independent mutually exclusive event can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) that uses logic gates to express the causative relationship between events. Furthermore, the basic events in an FTA are considered as independent. Therefore, conducting a multi-hazard PRA using a Fault Tree is quite impractical. In some cases using an FTA to conduct a multi-hazard PRA can even be inaccurate because an FTA cannot account for uncertainties in events and the use of logic gates limits the consideration of statistical correlations or dependencies between the events. An additional limitation of an FTA based PRA is embedded in its inability to easily accommodate newly observed data and calculation of updated risk or accident scenarios under the newly available information. Finally, FTA is not best suited for addressing beyond design basis vulnerabilities. Therefore, in this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider general relationships among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and evaluate scenarios for vulnerabilities due to beyond design bases events.
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Bodda, Saran Srikanth, Harleen Kaur Sandhu et Abhinav Gupta. « Fragility of a Flood Defense Structure Subjected to Multi-Hazard Scenario ». Dans 2016 24th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone24-60508.
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The March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster has highlighted the significance of maintaining the integrity of flood protection systems in the vicinity of a nuclear power plant. In the US, Oyster Creek nuclear plant was shut down when high storm surge during hurricane Sandy threatened its water intake and circulation systems. A gravity dam located upstream of a power plant can undergo seismic failure or flooding failure leading to flooding at the nuclear plant. In this paper, we present the results from a study on evaluating the fragilities for failure of a concrete gravity dam under both the flooding and the seismic events. Finite element analysis is used for modeling the seismic behavior as well as the seepage through foundation. A time-dependent analysis is considered to account for appropriate nonlinearities. Failure of dam foundation is characterized by rupture, and the failure of dam body is characterized by excessive deformation for the flooding and seismic loads respectively. The study presented in this paper has focused on a concrete gravity dam because of the need of validation of models which exist in prior studies only for concrete gravity dams. However, the concepts are directly applicable to any concrete flood defense structure.