Thèses sur le sujet « Morte a credito »
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Bourque, Réjean. « Style, narration et communication dans Mort à credit / ». Thèse, Trois-Rivières : Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, 1986. http://theses.uqac.ca.
Texte intégralCe mémoire a été réalise à l'Université du Québec à Chicoutimi dans le cadre du programme de maîtrise en études littéraires de l'Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières extentionné a l'Université du Québec à Chicoutimi. CaQCU Document électronique également accessible en format PDF. CaQCU
Johansson, Sam. « Efficient Monte Carlo Simulation for Counterparty Credit Risk Modeling ». Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-252566.
Texte intégralI denna rapport undersöks Monte Carlo-simuleringar för motpartskreditrisk. En jump-diffusion-modell, Bates modell, används för att beskriva prisprocessen hos en tillgång, och sannolikheten att motparten drabbas av insolvens beskrivs av en stokastisk intensitetsmodell med konstant intensitet. Tillsammans med Monte Carlo-simuleringar används variansreduktionstekinken importance sampling i ett försök att effektivisera simuleringarna. Importance sampling används för simulering av både tillgångens pris och, för estimering av CVA (Credit Valuation Adjustment), tidpunkten för insolvens. CVA simuleras för både europeiska optioner och Bermuda-optioner. Det visas att en signifikant variansreduktion kan uppnås genom att använda importance sampling för simuleringen av tillgångens pris. Det visas även att en signifikant variansreduktion för CVA-simulering kan uppnås för motparter med små sannolikheter att drabbas av insolvens genom att använda importance sampling för simulering av tidpunkter för insolvens. Detta gäller både europeiska optioner och Bermuda-optioner. Vidare, används regressionsmetoden least squares Monte Carlo för att estimera priset av en Bermuda-option, vilket resulterar i CVA-estimat som ligger inom ett intervall av rimliga värden. Slutligen föreslås några ämnen för ytterligare forskning.
Kolman, Marek. « Portfolio Credit Risk Modeling ». Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-75474.
Texte intégralWendin, Jonathan Erik Purvis. « Bayesian methods in portfolio credit risk management ». Zürich : ETH, 2006. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/ecol-pool/diss/abstracts/p16481.pdf.
Texte intégralLiu, Xinjia. « Pricing of multi-name credit derivatives using copulas ». Worcester, Mass. : Worcester Polytechnic Institute, 2008. http://www.wpi.edu/Pubs/ETD/Available/etd-010808-160914/.
Texte intégralKeywords: first-to-default baskets; multi-name credit derivatives; copula functions. Includes bibliographical references (leaf 29 ).
Järnberg, Emelie. « Dynamic Credit Models : An analysis using Monte Carlo methods and variance reduction techniques ». Thesis, KTH, Matematisk statistik, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-197322.
Texte intégralI den här uppsatsen modelleras kreditvärdigheten hos ett företag med hjälp av en stokastisk process. Två kreditmodeller betraktas; Merton's modell, som modellerar värdet av ett företags tillgångar med geometrisk Brownsk rörelse, och "distance to default", som drivs av en två-dimensionell stokastisk process med både diffusion och hopp. Sannolikheten för konkurs och den förväntade tidpunkten för konkurs simuleras med hjälp av Monte Carlo och antalet scenarion som behövs för konvergens i simuleringarna undersöks. Vid simuleringen används metoden "probability matrix method", där en övergångssannolikhetsmatris som beskriver processen används. Dessutom undersöks två metoder för variansreducering; viktad simulering (importance sampling) och antitetiska variabler (antithetic variates).
Sauter, Dawn Adell. « Estimating swap credit risk : significance of the volatility input using Monte-Carlo simulation / ». Thesis, This resource online, 1993. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-12052009-020238/.
Texte intégralNeier, Mark. « Pricing of collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps using Monte Carlo simulation ». Thesis, Manhattan, Kan. : Kansas State University, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/2308.
Texte intégralSacramento, Junior Luiz Claudio Ferreira. « More than words : broader information sharing and access to the formal credit market ». reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18293.
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This paper shows how information sharing mechanisms might enable Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) to increase their access to formal credit markets. Using a unique dataset provided by the Brazilian Central Bank and Ministry of Labor, a change is applied in the threshold of loans that must be reported and shared by all active financial institutions as a gradual increase in the available information on MSEs. Results suggest that borrowers that benefited by this change obtained more loans and smaller interest rates, and by building a good client pool ended up receiving smaller maturities. Firms were also less likely to delay repayments and present smaller loan losses. This evidence sheds light on information asymmetry and literature on financial inclusion by showing that information sharing mechanisms can improve the decision to offer credit, and MSEs can become less dependent of relationship lending to obtain loans.
Esse estudo mostra como mecanismos de compartilhamento de informação podem permitir Micro e Pequenas Empresas (MPEs) podem melhorar seu acesso a mercados de crédito formais. Utilizando uma base de dados única obtida junto ao Banco Central do Brasil e Ministério do Trabalho, uma mudança é aplicada no limite do valor de empréstimos que precisam ser reportados e compartilhados por todas as instituições financeiras ativas como uma mudança gradual na informação disponível sobre MPEs. Os resultados indicam que tomadores de empréstimo que se beneficiaram dessa mudança obtiveram mais empréstimos e menores taxas de juros, e por constituir um bom grupo de clientes acabam por receber menores vencimentos. As empresas são ainda menos prováveis de atrasar seus pagamentos e apresentam menores perdas aos bancos. As consequências desse estudo lançam luz sobre a literatura de assimetria de informação e inclusão financeira ao mostrar que mecanismos de compartilhamento de informação podem auxiliar na decisão de oferecer crédito e MPEs podem se tornar menos dependentes de empréstimos de relacionamento para obter empréstimos.
Lundström, Love, et Oscar Öhman. « Backtesting of simulated method for Counterparty Credit Risk ». Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-173284.
Texte intégralWebster, Gregg. « Bayesian logistic regression models for credit scoring ». Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1005538.
Texte intégralBRIGNONE, RICCARDO. « Moment based approximations for arithmetic averages with applications in derivative pricing, credit risk and Monte Carlo simulation ». Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10281/262926.
Texte intégralIn this thesis we consider three different financial problems whose solution is related to the arithmetic average of some mean reverting stochastic process, whose distribution is unknown, precluding explicit and exact computations. We propose moment based approximations and examine applications in exotic derivatives pricing, credit risk and Monte Carlo simulation and show that this kind of solution can be very useful as able to reduce the computational cost with respect to alternative numerical methods, which are used as benchmark throughout this work. The first chapter of this thesis is devoted to provide some theoretical background on moment based approximations, including some basic facts on the so-called \textit{moment problem}, common approximations techniques, together with a literature review on the usage of moments in finance and numerical illustrations. In the second chapter, we propose accurate moment based approximation formulas for the price of Asian options in the case where the underlying's price is a mean reverting (with jumps) stochastic process. In the third chapter we introduce an efficient methodology, based on moment matching, for the calibration of the default intensity, which is modeled through an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and apply this result to the calculation of Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) in presence of wrong way risk for interest rates derivatives. In the fourth chapter, we consider the problem of simulating stochastic volatility models. Exact simulation schemes have been proposed in literature for various models, but are computationally inefficient due to their dependence on the integral of the variance process, which is generally assumed to be mean reverting and whose distribution is unknown. In this case, we show how to compute the moments of such unknown distribution and develop a new simulation methodology which turns out to be much faster, from a computational point of view, than exact schemes, for a similar level of accuracy. The final chapter is different from the others as moments find only marginal application. We consider a double exponential jump diffusion model where the jump intensity is a stochastic process of Hawkes type. This kind of dynamics has been introduced in literature in order to model jump clustering phenomenon, widely observed in financial and commodity markets. We derive the characteristic function of the integral of log-returns and price geometric Asian options under such model.
Hager, Svenja. « Pricing portfolio credit derivatives by means of evolutionary algorithms ». Wiesbaden : Gabler, 2008. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=016575308&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.
Texte intégralCamacho, Valle Alfredo. « Credit risk modeling in a semi-Markov process environment ». Thesis, University of Manchester, 2013. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/credit-risk-modeling-in-a-semimarkov-process-environment(ad56ed0b-047f-44df-be68-6accef7544ff).html.
Texte intégralCedeno, Yaxum, et Rebecca Jansson. « Modelling Credit Risk : Estimation of Asset and Default Correlation for an SME Portfolio ». Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-149281.
Texte intégralNär banker lånar ut kapital till motparter tar de en risk, mer känt som kreditrisk som traditionellt har varit den största risken för banker. För att skydda sig mot potentiella förluster vid utlåning måste banker ha ett reglerat kapital som bygger på en formel för beräkning av riskvägda tillgångar (RWA). Denna formel ingår i Basels regelverk och är implementerad i rättssystemet i alla EU-länder. De viktigaste parametrarna för RWA-formeln är sannolikheten att fallera, förlustgivet fallissemang och tillgångskorrelation. Bankerna har idag möjlighet att beräkna de två variablerna sannolikheten att fallera och förlustgivet fallissemang med interna modeller men tillgångskorrelation måste bestämmas med hjälp av en standardformel givet från regelverket. Detta projekt är ett första tillvägagångssätt för Handelsbanken att studera vad som skulle hända om banker fick beräkna tillgångskorrelation med interna modeller. Vi analyserar två modeller för att skatta tillgångskorrelation i en portfölj av Små och Medelstora Företag (SME). Uppskattningarna jämförs sedan med den tillgångskorrelation som ges av regelverket och jämförs även mot en parameter som kallas fallissemangskorrelation. Modellerna som används för att beräkna korrelationerna valideras med hjälp av estimerat data och Monte-Carlo Simuleringar. För den studerade SME portföljen ges liknande uppskattningar för de båda tillgångskorrelationsmodellerna, samt visar det sig att de är lägre än den korrelationen som ges av regelverket. Detta skulle innebära ett lägre kapitalkrav om bankerna fick använda sig av interna modeller för att estimera tillgångskorrelation som används i RWA-formeln. Om fallissemangskorrelation inte används synonymt till tillgångskorrelation, visar det sig att fallisemangskorrelation är en annan mätning än tillgångskorrelation och bör inte användas i RWA-formeln.
Papanastasiou, Dimitrios. « 3 essays on credit risk modeling and the macroeconomic environment ». Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/22014.
Texte intégralVogliotti, Rodrigo. « Mensuração da exposição no momento do default (EAD) para derivativos de balcão através da simulação de Monte Carlo ». Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, 2012. http://tede.mackenzie.br/jspui/handle/tede/627.
Texte intégralThe difficulty in developing a statistical model that includes random variables and the need for intensive data processing capacity are the main challenges for the measurement of counterparty credit risk. The need to know the exposure value at the time of default (EAD) on a derivative instrument is a decisive factor for pricing, portfolio management and capital allocation. Recent events such as the creation of innovative products, coming from the new Basel Accord (Basel II) and the credit crisis of 2007/08 reinforce the importance of knowing what the actual credit risk exposure in a particular transaction. The aim of this study was to develop models for measuring credit risk of the counterparty from the estimation of counterparty exposure to bonds, equities and forward contract through the use of Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that certain parameters such as the interest rate, the mean and standard deviation show strong linear correlation with exposure (EAD) and this issue can be an important driver for the decision-making process. In the model of forward contract was found that correlated random variables can potentiate the exposure value.
A dificuldade em desenvolver um modelo estatístico que contemple variáveis aleatórias e a necessidade de intensa capacidade para processamento de dados são os principais desafios para a mensuração do risco de crédito de contraparte. A necessidade em conhecer o valor da exposição no momento do default (EAD) em um instrumento derivativo é fator decisivo para a precificação, gestão do portfólio e alocação de capital. Recentes acontecimentos como a criação de produtos inovadores, o advindo do novo acordo de Basileia (Basileia II) e a crise de crédito de 2007/08 reforçaram a importância de se saber qual o risco de crédito efetivo que cada contraparte está exposta em uma determinada transação. O objetivo deste estudo foi desenvolver modelos para mensuração do risco de crédito da contraparte a partir da estimação da exposição da contraparte para títulos, ações e contrato a termo de ações através da utilização da simulação de Monte Carlo. Os resultados da análise de sensibilidade indicam que certos parâmetros como a taxa de juro, a média e o desvio padrão apresentam forte correlação linear com a exposição (EAD) calculada e podem ser importantes direcionadores para o processo decisório. No modelo de contrato a termo de ações foi verificado que variáveis aleatórias correlacionadas potencializam o valor da exposição.
Callegaro, Giorgia. « Credit risk models under partial information ». Doctoral thesis, Scuola Normale Superiore, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/11384/85658.
Texte intégralSmith, Dorace F. « A study of characteristics that contribute to persistence of adult commuter students who earn 60 or more hours of college credit ». Virtual Press, 1999. http://liblink.bsu.edu/uhtbin/catkey/1117654.
Texte intégralDepartment of Educational Leadership
Montes, Juan Miguel. « Aspects of Affine Models in the Pricing of Exotic Options and in Credit Risk ». Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3423536.
Texte intégralLe strutture a termine affine con diffusione a salti (AJTSMs) stanno recentemente ricevendo molta attenzione in finanza matematica, perché spesso è semplice analizzare le funzioni di distribuzione ad esse associate. Questa tesi riguarda tre diversi aspetti della finanza matematica, applicati su certe classi di AJTSMs. Il primo aspetto riguarda il problema del prezzaggio, nel caso particolare in cui il processo sottostante Xt sia una Catena Markoviana a Tempo Continuo (CTMC). Per opzioni esotiche, dove il “claim”, cioè il “payoff” del derivato è dipende dal tempo oppure dalle traiettorie, solitamente i prezzi devono essere stimati attraverso simulazioni di tipo Monte Carlo. Mostriamo che, quando si condiziona prima sul numero Nt,T=k dei salti della catena, il calcolo di questa stima si semplifica. Viene proposta una ricorsione per calcolare il valore atteso del “payoff” scontato, dato Nt,T=k; in seguito si calcola il valore atteso del “payoff” rispetto alla distribuzione di Nt,T=k attraverso un metodo Monte Carlo. Questo condizionamento comporta una riduzione della varianza. Presentiamo i risultati di vari test numerici, che indicano che, per diversi tipi di “claims”, il metodo proposto supera spesso un semplice “vanilla” Monte Carlo. Il secondo aspetto riguarda la calibrazione, cioè la stima dei parametri di un modello finanziario, dove il processo sottostante (una Catena Markoviana finita) è solo parzialmente osservabile tramite i prezzi corrotti del titolo. In questo lavoro, assumiamo che anche i salti del prezzo del titolo corrispondenti ai tempi dei salti della catena Markoviana siano osservabili. Questo è un caso particolare della classe di modelli trattati in [FR10b]. I loro parametri possono essere stimati mediante l’algoritmo “expectation-maximization” (EM), seguendo l’approccio di [EAM08], che, nel caso delle catene a tempo discreto, coinvolge il filtro di Kalman. Estendiamo questo approccio al caso CTMC, usando invece il filtro di Wonham. Il contributo principale di questa parte della tesi è l’approssimazione numerica dei filtri e degli “smoothers” dell’algoritmo EM. Confrontiamo i classici metodi di Eulero e di Milstein con una nuova strategia, simile a [PR10a], che chiamiamo “soluzione quasi-esatta” e che è anche collegata al metodo di “splitting-up” di [BGR90] e [Gla92]. Dimostriamo che tale schema ha un ordine di convergenza forte di almeno 0.5 e che pertanto è almeno tanto efficace quanto lo schema di Eulero. Presentiamo alcuni risultati numerici che indicano che, di fatto, in certi casi il nuovo metodo converge più velocemente di entrambi i metodi di Eulero e di Milstein. Il terzo aspetto riguarda un quadro unificato per la modellazione del rischio di “equity” e “credit”, con applicazioni alla gestione del rischio. Trattiamo un AJTSM di un’azione con un’unica discontinuità (“jump-to-default”), dove il tempo di fallimento dell’azione è un tempo aleatorio doppiamente stocastico con intensità determinata da un sottostante processo affine. Questo approccio permette una piena trattabilità analitica pur lasciando flessibilità nel definire le interazioni tra il prezzo dell’azione fallibile, la volatilità stocastica e l’intensità del fallimento. Infine caratterizziamo tutte le misure di rischio neutrale che conservano la struttura affine del modello e mostriamo che sia la gestione del rischio che i problemi del prezzaggio possono essere trattati in modo efficiente passando a misure di sopravivenza appropriate. Come esempio, estendiamo il modello di volatilità stocastica di Heston considerando la possibilità di un “jump-to-default”. [FR10b] R. Frey and W. J. Runggaldier, Pricing credit derivatives under incomplete information: a nonlinear filtering approach., Finance and Stochastics 14 (2010), no. 4, 495–526. [PR10a] E. Platen and R. Rendek, Quasi-exact approximation of hidden markov chain filters., Communications on Stochastic Analysis 4 (2010), 129–142. [BGR90] A. Bensoussan, R. Glowinski, and A. Rascanu, Approximation of the zakai equation by the splitting up method, SIAM Journal of Control and Optimization 28 (1990), no. 6, 1420–1431. [Gla92] F. Le Gland, Splitting-up approximation for spde’s and sde’s with application to non-linear filtering, in: Stochastic Partial Differential Equations and Their Applications, Charlotte 1991, B. L. Rozovskii and R. B. Sowers, editors, Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences 176 (1992), 177–187.
Oliveira, Adriano Dinis. « Aplicação da estatística bayesiana ao risco de crédito ». Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/7712.
Texte intégralO cálculo de probabilidade de incumprimento de uma carteira de crédito é essencial para o cálculo dos requisitos de fundos mínimos dos bancos. No entanto, existem diversas circunstâncias em que a informação bancária não é suficiente, ou fiável, fazendo com que uma análise baseada apenas em dados históricos não seja apropriada. O objetivo principal deste projeto é o de desenvolver e implementar um modelo que seja capaz de incorporar a informação fornecida por um perito com a informação histórica de uma carteira de crédito. Para atingir o objetivo recorreu-se à estatística Bayesiana que permite incorporar, de forma coerente, as duas fontes de informação. O estudo recai sobre uma carteira de crédito de empresas de um banco português. Os resultados do projeto apontam para que o valor médio da probabilidade de incumprimento da função a priori e a posteriori sejam semelhantes, no entanto a função a posteriori tem uma menor dispersão. É também constatado que existe uma correlação temporal positiva apesar de não ser muito forte.
The calculation of probability of default of a loan portfolio is essential for computing the minimum capital requirements that banks need to keep. However, there are several circumstances in which bank data is scarce or not reliable, making historical data analysis not appropriate. The main goal of this project is to develop and implement a model able to incorporate information given by an expert and historical data. To pursue the main goal, we have used Bayesian statistics which allows coherent incorporation of both kinds of information (subjective and objective). This study analyses a commercial loan portfolio of a portuguese bank. The results indicate that the expected probability of default given by the expert is similar to the expected probability of default computed using the posteriori function. However, the posteriori function has lower dispersion than the priori. It is also found a weak positive correlation between time periods.
Larsson, Julia, et Tyra Strandberg. « Optimization of Subscription Lines of Credit in Private Equity : An extensive analysis containing several Investment-, Bridge Facility- and Installment Strategies using Monte Carlo Simulations ». Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-184679.
Texte intégralBujok, Karolina Edyta. « Numerical solutions to a class of stochastic partial differential equations arising in finance ». Thesis, University of Oxford, 2013. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:d2e76713-607b-4f26-977a-ac4df56d54f2.
Texte intégralLI, MIN. « TWO ESSAYS IN BAYESIAN PENALIZED SPLINES ». University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2002. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1029342150.
Texte intégralZamboni, Sofia <1995>. « Chinese Social Credit System : the more we are watched, the better we behave (?) An analysis of the system’s historical evolution, regulatory framework and current implementation ». Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/16700.
Texte intégralSchneider, Paul, Leopold Sögner et Tanja Veza. « The Economic Role of Jumps and Recovery Rates in the Market for Corporate Default Risk ». Cambridge University Press, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0022109010000554.
Texte intégralNgoma, Wilson. « Towards a more flexible approach to the fraud exception in letters of credit under South African law : a comparative analysis with select common law approaches and the UNCITRAL Convention ». Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/15192.
Texte intégralSak, Halis. « Efficient Simulations in Finance ». Department of Statistics and Mathematics, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2008. http://epub.wu.ac.at/1068/1/document.pdf.
Texte intégralSeries: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics
Rezende, Gustavo de Magalhães. « Estimativas de LGD em portfólios de crédito simulados : análises comparativas ». Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, 2011. http://tede.mackenzie.br/jspui/handle/tede/537.
Texte intégralFundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa
Basel II Accord will allow banks in Brazil to calculate their capital requirements using internal ratings based on the advanced IRB (Internal Rating-Based) approach, depending on their credit risk exposure. The main modeling components that must be estimated are the probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD) and exposure at default (EAD). The aim of this dissertation is to estimate the parameter LGD using different models found in the literature in order to compare the obtained results. For that, the credit portfolios within this study will be simulated via Monte Carlo simulation, due to the difficulty in getting real losses data.
O acordo de Basileia II no Brasil vai permitir que os bancos utilizem modelos internos, na abordagem IRB avançada (Internal Rating-Based), que sirvam de base para o cálculo dos requisitos mínimos de capital em função do nível de exposição ao risco de crédito. Dentre os principais componentes estimados estão a probabilidade de default (PD probability of default), a perda dado o default (LGD loss given default) e a exposição no default (EAD exposure at default). Esta dissertação tem como objetivo realizar estimativas de LGD utilizando alguns modelos descritos na literatura e comparando os resultados obtidos. Para tanto, os portfólios de crédito do estudo serão simulados através de técnicas de Monte Carlo, dada a escassez de dados de perdas reais.
Rahman, Dima. « The fragility of financial institutions : dependence structure, extremal behaviour and contagion ». Thesis, Paris 10, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011PA100128.
Texte intégralThis thesis examines the credit dependence structure and dynamics of financial institutions in the U.S. and Europe amid the recent financial crisis. A first chapter presents a survey of multi-name models of credit risk and econometric models of financial contagion with the purpose of guiding both the analytical and conceptual assumptions and econometric modelling techniques we use in the subsequent chapters. We show that if contagion has become a central cornerstone of multi-name models of credit risk, there is nonetheless a lack of consensus on the way to both define and measure it. A second chapter presents the results of an empirical analysis of U.S. and European banks and insurance companies’ CDS return extreme co-movements. By uncovering financial institutions' linear as well as extremal dependence structures, we provide evidence that their credit dependence has strengthened during the crisis, thereby effectively conveying, in the face of extreme tail events, potential systemic risks. A third and last chapter provides an economic rationale of the results presented in our second chapter. In particular, we examine the impact of common risk factors and contagion on the dynamics of financial institutions' extremal credit dependence. We demonstrate the role of counterparty risk and liquidity risk, as well the repricing by market participants since July 2007 of their jump-to-default premia as additional channels driving financial institutions' increased dependence and amplifying contagion on the CDS market
Guerra, Renata Rojas. « MODELO BETA AUTORREGRESSIVO DE MÉDIAS MÓVEIS : CRITÉRIOS DE SELEÇÃO E APLICAÇÕES ». Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, 2015. http://repositorio.ufsm.br/handle/1/8336.
Texte intégralA modelagem e a previsão de séries temporais é um campo de ampla aplicabilidade em diversas áreas científicas e tecnológicas. No âmbito específico de variáveis restritas ao intervalo (0; 1), como taxas e proporções, a utilização de modelos clássicos, que supõem normalidade da variável de interesse, pode não ser adequada. Neste contexto, Rocha e Cribari-Neto (2009) propuseram o modelo beta autorregressivo de médias móveis (β ARMA). Por assumir que a variável de interesse possui distribuição beta, que é uma distribuição mais flexível que a normal e com suporte restrito ao intervalo (0; 1), o βARMA possibilita modelagens e previsões mais condizentes com a natureza desses dados. Contudo, apenas a escolha do modelo paramétrico mais adequado não garante a acurácia do modelo ajustado. A identificação das defasagens a serem incluídas também exerce um papel de relevância neste sentido. É neste propósito que foram desenvolvidos os critérios de seleção de modelos, ou critérios de informação. Estes comparam as capacidades de explicação entre um grupo de modelos candidatos e selecionam, dentro deste grupo, o modelo que minimiza a perda de informações. Diante do exposto, este trabalho tem o objetivo de avaliar, via simulações de Monte Carlo, o desempenho de diferentes critérios de seleção no modelo βARMA. Por meio de um extenso estudo de simulação, considerando diversos cenários e tamanhos amostrais, foram avaliados os desempenhos em amostras de tamanho finito dos critérios AIC, BIC, HQ, AICc, BICc e HQc. Como resultados numéricos gerais, destaca-se que os critérios HQ, BICc e HQc foram os que alcançaram os melhores níveis de identificação do modelo verdadeiro. Utilizando os critérios de seleção sugeridos no estudo de simulação também foram ajustados modelos βARMA a dados reais. Para isso, foram considerados o índice de inadimplência de crédito e a relação entre o crédito consignado e o crédito total pessoa física, ambos do Sistema Financeiro Nacional. Também foram ajustados os clássicos modelos ARIMA comparativamente ao modelo βARMA na realização de previsões e posterior comparação entre os resultados de ambas as aplicações. Para as duas variáveis há um grau razoável de proximidade entre os dados originais e previstos, com superioridade do βARMA tanto dentro quanto fora do conjunto de observações utilizado para estimação dos modelos.
Bourgey, Florian. « Stochastic approximations for financial risk computations ». Thesis, Institut polytechnique de Paris, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020IPPAX052.
Texte intégralIn this thesis, we investigate several stochastic approximation methods for both the computation of financial risk measures and the pricing of derivatives.As closed-form expressions are scarcely available for such quantities, %and because they have to be evaluated daily, the need for fast, efficient, and reliable analytic approximation formulas is of primal importance to financial institutions.We aim at giving a broad overview of such approximation methods and we focus on three distinct approaches.In the first part, we study some Multilevel Monte Carlo approximation methods and apply them for two practical problems: the estimation of quantities involving nested expectations (such as the initial margin) along with the discretization of integrals arising in rough forward variance models for the pricing of VIX derivatives.For both cases, we analyze the properties of the corresponding asymptotically-optimal multilevel estimatorsand numerically demonstrate the superiority of multilevel methods compare to a standard Monte Carlo.In the second part, motivated by the numerous examples arising in credit risk modeling, we propose a general framework for meta-modeling large sums of weighted Bernoullirandom variables which are conditional independent of a common factor X.Our generic approach is based on a Polynomial Chaos Expansion on the common factor together withsome Gaussian approximation. L2 error estimates are given when the factor X is associated withclassical orthogonal polynomials.Finally, in the last part of this dissertation, we deal withsmall-time asymptotics and provide asymptoticexpansions for both American implied volatility and American option prices in local volatility models.We also investigate aweak approximations for the VIX index inrough forward variance models expressed in termsof lognormal proxiesand derive expansions results for VIX derivatives with explicit coefficients
Turnour, Matthew Dwight. « The stewardship paradigm : an enquiry into the ethical obligation associated with being in control of resorces ». Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 1999. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/35810/1/35810.pdf.
Texte intégralValeria, Ferretti, Yves Masson Jean, Bernsen Michael et MICHELA LANDI. « La traduzione di un'oralità popolare mitica : Louis-Ferdinand Céline in italiano ». Doctoral thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/2158/1002420.
Texte intégralHavelka, Robert. « Monte Carlo simulation of Counterparty Credit Risk ». Master's thesis, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-332617.
Texte intégralLee, Yi-hsi, et 李宜熹. « Monte Carlo Methods for Multifactor Portfolio Credit Risk ». Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/76349278397107737529.
Texte intégral國立中山大學
財務管理學系研究所
98
This study develops a dynamic importance sampling method (DIS) for numerical simulations of rare events. The DIS method is flexible, fast, and accurate. The most importance is that it is very easy to implement. It could be applied to any multifactor copula models, which conduct by arbitrary independent random variables. First, the key common factor (KCF) is determined by the maximum value among the coefficients of factor loadings. Second, searching the indicator by the order statistics and applying the truncated sampling techniques, the probability of large losses (PLL) and the expected excess loss above threshold (EELAT) can be estimated precisely. Except for the assumption that the factor loadings of KCF do not exit zero elements, we do not impose any restrictions on the composition of the portfolio. The DIS method developed in this study can therefore be applied to a very wide range of credit risk models. Comparison of the numerical experiment between the method of Glasserman, Kang and Shahabuddin (2008) and the DIS method developed in this study, under the multifactor Gaussian copula model and the high market impact condition (the factor loadings of marketwide factor of 0.8), both variance reduction ratio and efficient ratio of the DIS model are much better than that of Glasserman et al. (2008)’s. And both results approximate when the factor loadings of marketwide factor decreases to the range of 0.5 to 0.25. However, the DIS method is superior to the method of Glasserman et al. (2008) in terms of the practicability. Numerical simulation results demonstrate that the DIS method is not only feasible to the general market conditions, but also particularly to the high market impact condition, especially in credit contagion or market collapse environments. It is also noted that the numerical results indicate that the DIS estimators exit bounded relative error.
Bourque, Réjean. « Style, narration et communication dans Mort à credit ». Thèse, 1986. http://constellation.uqac.ca/1656/1/1445771.pdf.
Texte intégralPearlston, Karen. « For the more easy recovery of debts in His Majesty’s plantations : credit and conflict in Upper Canada, 1788-1809 ». Thesis, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/9305.
Texte intégralChen, Ya-Hui, et 陳雅惠. « Application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo to Structural Credit Risk Model ». Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/7746cq.
Texte intégral銘傳大學
財務金融學系碩士班
96
In the recent years, many companies in Taiwan face financial distress, and therefore the early-warning ability of credit risk becomes the key determinant of operational performance of financial institutions. However, the prior studies about the structural credit risk models typically calibrating asset volatility from the observed volatility of equity always ignored time-variation in equity volatility, and could result in unrealistic parameter estimates and asset mispricing. Some subsequent studies incorporating pricing errors and parameter uncertainty in maximum likelihood method are feasible. Nevertheless, the maximum likelihood method is computationally slow as it relies on high-dimensional optimization, and resorts to asymptotic approximations for standard errors and can also suffer from unrealistic in practice. Based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, this study can easily obtain the parameters from posterior distributions without resorting to asymptotic approximations, and prices on multiple securities for state variable dynamics can be simultaneously estimated leading to tighter parameter estimates. In short, this study can provide an easier computation process and more accurate results in the field of empirical research. Furthermore, the KMV(1995) model with exogeneous default point and Leland(1994) with endogeneous bankruptcy threshold are two popular credit risk models today. This study therefore will employ MCMC methods estimate the parameters of Leland model, and then compare the two expected default probabilities. Finally, the optimal credit risk model for Taiwan listed-stock firms will be found. Our empirical results indicate that Leland model think that tax and bankruptcy cost will influence the market value of the firm’s assets and employ MCMC method estimate the parameters. Leland model combine with MCMC method will provide more powerful ability to discriminate high default risk firms from low default risk firms, and also can signal the early warning signs before the credit events effectively.
Ye, Shang Shin, et 葉尚鑫. « Pricing American credit default swap options with least-square monte carlo simulation ». Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/76515671584425459378.
Texte intégral國立政治大學
金融研究所
96
The most liquid European CDS options are usually of short maturities. This may result from that options with longer maturity have to bear more default risk of the reference company. American CDS options allow the holders to exercise options before option matures so that they can focus on spread movements without worrying about default risk. In this paper, we price American CDS options with one-period CDS spread model presented by Brigo (2004). The primary advantage of this model is that it is similar to LIBOR market model in interest rate theory. Therefore, path-dependent CDS-related products can be easily priced with familiar ideas.
Liu, Chao-yuan, et 劉兆袁. « The Study of the Counterparty Credit Risk Exposure -- Quantifying Potential Future Exposure by Monte Carlo Simulation Method and Compiling Credit Convention Factors ». Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/437mc3.
Texte intégral國立臺灣科技大學
財務金融研究所
100
Due to the blooming development in the international financial derivatives market and the more complex transactions, the range of the influence from the counterparty credit risk became more extensive. In 2007~2008 the global financial crisis wreaked havoc through financial markets worldwide, and many well-known large financial institutions such as Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and AIG with the investment rating also have had to file for bankruptcy or asked for the bailout. And let international financial market participants and supervisory authorities gradually pay more attention on counterparty credit risk management issues. This study focuses on understanding the method of the counterparty credit risk management and analyzing the evaluation of the counterparty credit risk exposure as well as setting a more efficient mechanism to manage the counterparty credit risk. First, we collect the historical market data of the risk factors that will influence the exposure of the OTC derivatives and make choice of models for the risk factors. We use Monte Carlo simulation method and choose an appropriate probability distribution of the risk factor to quantify the worst exposure (The worst-case gain) of the OTC derivatives (quantify maximum potential future exposure, Maximum PFE). Then, according to the maturity of the contracts, we summarize the outcome of the Maximum PFE simulation and compile the credit convention factor tables which are typically generic tables that can be used for derivatives trading purpose or risk controlling purpose. In this study, we have simulated the Maximum PFE of several types of OTC derivatives and compiled the credit convention factor tables listed as below: 1.Foreign exchange rate derivatives:(1) FX Forward:13 different currency pairs, (2) FX Option Call / Put (at the money):15 different currency pairs. 2.Interest rate derivatives:(1) Interest Rate Swap:6 different currency interest rate indexes, (2) Cross Currency Swap:3 different currency pairs. 3. Equity derivatives:8 major market indices. Finally, we illustrate the add-on method for estimating the contract-level PFE and exposure using examples of the OTC derivatives contracts and demonstrate how to manage and control counterparty credit risk exposure with a specific counterparty. Then, we compare the exposure estimates under the CCF tables of the BaselⅡ clause and the compiled CCF tables of this study to the same contract of derivatives in current exposure method (CEM). The results do however give some insight into the dynamics of the two different CCF tables for calculating exposure at default (EAD). The conclusion of the study can provide the financial institutions which trades in the OTC derivatives market with a simple approximation in an attempt to measure their exposure to counterparty credit risk more easily and efficiently. In addition, by updating the market data and simulating the PFE of the OTC derivatives frequently (quarterly or semi-yearly), the financial institutions which have adopted the mechanism can enhance their assessment of counterparty credit risk exposure much closer to the current financial market trends.
Lin, Uei, et 林蔚. « Which Method Is More Powerful in Predicting Crisis Company in Taiwan ? Re-comparing Credit Scoring & ; Option Pricing ». Thesis, 2005. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/51616215903369562782.
Texte intégral國立中正大學
財務金融所
93
According to the policy of authority, there were more and more M&A between financial institutions in past few years which were never happened before. In the end, there were fourteen financial holding companies. However, the competition between financial institutions is still heat. At this situation, the profit margin of the practitioners is going thinner and thinner. To overcome it, practitioners need to put emphasis on evaluating credit risk of their customers. Predicting crisis companies is one important issue of evaluating credit risk. Keep improving model of predicting crisis companies comes an never stopping work for practitioners. Our research is focus on model of predicting crisis companies. In this research we try to find out which model is more powerful on predicting crisis companies through comparing credit-scoring method and option-pricing method. We use Altman Z-score model to represent credit-scoring method and the EDF of Moody’s KMV Credit Monitor to represent option-pricing method. Then we use intra-cohort analysis to inspect the relative predicting power of these two indexes and logit regressions to find out which index is the much more efficiency equipment on predicting crisis companies. For the companies which are filed to crisis companies in the coming year, we couldn’t identify which index is the relative powerful predictor through the empirical result of intra-cohort analysis. Even we control one of them, the other one still contributes its predicting information. The result of logit regressions point that EDF could file the companies correctly at 86.4% better than that of Z-Score at 70.1%. We would like to say that EDF is a new and powerful index of option-pricing method which consists with the research of Miller(1998)and Kealhofer and Kurbat(2001)and also effect in Taiwan area.
Naji, Almassi Ali. « Credit Value Adjusted Real Options Based Valuation of Multiple-Exercise Government Guarantees for Infrastructure Projects ». Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1807/35736.
Texte intégralЮ, Кирилова І. « Управління кредитним ризиком комерційного банку з використанням VaR-моделі (на прикладі ПАТ «УкрСиббанк») ». Thesis, 2019. http://dspace.oneu.edu.ua/jspui/handle/123456789/11162.
Texte intégralThe paper considers theoretical aspects of managing a bank's credit portfolio, in particular, the nature and classification of credit risk; the methodology, risk management tools of the bank loan portfolio and the peculiarities of the credit activity of the bank has been investigated. The quality and structure of the bank’s loan portfolio has been analyzed and credit portfolio has been assessed using VaR model via Monte Carlo; The paperwork is proposing the following recommendations regarding credit risk assessment in the commercial bank: credit risk measuring via VaR model through Monte Carlo and taking into account the system of possible risks in the process of developing credit policy of the bank.