Articles de revues : « Marginal risk »

1

Keel, Simon, et David Ardia. « Generalized marginal risk ». Journal of Asset Management 12, n^o 2 (10 mars 2011) : 123–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/jam.2010.30.

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Chambers, Robert G. « On Marginal‐Risk Behavior ». American Journal of Agricultural Economics 98, n^o 2 (11 juin 2015) : 406–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aav027.

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Venter, Gary G., John A. Major et Rodney E. Kreps. « Marginal Decomposition of Risk Measures ». ASTIN Bulletin 36, n^o 02 (novembre 2006) : 375–413. http://dx.doi.org/10.2143/ast.36.2.2017927.

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The marginal approach to risk and return analysis compares the marginal return from a business decision to the marginal risk imposed. Allocation distributes the total company risk to business units and compares the profit/risk ratio of the units. These approaches coincide when the allocation actually assigns the marginal risk to each business unit, i.e., when the marginal impacts add up to the total risk measure. This is possible for one class of risk measures (scalable measures) under the assumption of homogeneous growth and by a subclass (transformed probability measures) otherwise. For homogeneous growth, the allocation of scalable measures can be accomplished by the directional derivative. The first well known additive marginal allocations were the Myers-Read method from Myers and Read (2001) and co-Tail Value at Risk, discussed in Tasche (2000). Now we see that there are many others, which allows the choice of risk measure to be based on economic meaning rather than the availability of an allocation method. We prefer the term “decomposition” to “allocation” here because of the use of the method of co-measures, which quantifies the component composition of a risk measure rather than allocating it proportionally to something. Risk adjusted profitability calculations that do not rely on capital allocation still may involve decomposition of risk measures. Such a case is discussed. Calculation issues for directional derivatives are also explored.

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4

Sjoberg, Lennart. « Consequences matter, ‘risk’ is marginal ». Journal of Risk Research 3, n^o 3 (juillet 2000) : 287–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13669870050043189.

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Venter, Gary G., John A. Major et Rodney E. Kreps. « Marginal Decomposition of Risk Measures ». ASTIN Bulletin 36, n^o 2 (novembre 2006) : 375–413. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0515036100014562.

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The marginal approach to risk and return analysis compares the marginal return from a business decision to the marginal risk imposed. Allocation distributes the total company risk to business units and compares the profit/risk ratio of the units. These approaches coincide when the allocation actually assigns the marginal risk to each business unit, i.e., when the marginal impacts add up to the total risk measure. This is possible for one class of risk measures (scalable measures) under the assumption of homogeneous growth and by a subclass (transformed probability measures) otherwise. For homogeneous growth, the allocation of scalable measures can be accomplished by the directional derivative. The first well known additive marginal allocations were the Myers-Read method from Myers and Read (2001) and co-Tail Value at Risk, discussed in Tasche (2000). Now we see that there are many others, which allows the choice of risk measure to be based on economic meaning rather than the availability of an allocation method. We prefer the term “decomposition” to “allocation” here because of the use of the method of co-measures, which quantifies the component composition of a risk measure rather than allocating it proportionally to something.Risk adjusted profitability calculations that do not rely on capital allocation still may involve decomposition of risk measures. Such a case is discussed. Calculation issues for directional derivatives are also explored.

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6

Williams, Thomas E., William J. Fanning, W. C. Benton, Gerard S. Kakos, Randall L. Miller, William J. Esterline et Thomas D. Hankins. « What is the marginal cost for marginal risk in cardiac surgery ? » Annals of Thoracic Surgery 66, n^o 6 (décembre 1998) : 1969–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0003-4975(98)00820-0.

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Zhu, Shushang, Duan Li et Xiaoling Sun. « Portfolio selection with marginal risk control ». Journal of Computational Finance 14, n^o 1 (septembre 2010) : 3–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.21314/jcf.2010.213.

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Chen, Tao, Jing Rong Goh, Shinichi Kamiya et Pingyi Lou. « Marginal cost of risk-based capital and risk-taking ». Journal of Banking & ; Finance 103 (juin 2019) : 130–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.03.011.

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9

Tzeng, Larry Y. « Increase in Risk and Weaker Marginal-Payoff-Weighted Risk Dominance ». Journal of Risk and Insurance 68, n^o 2 (juin 2001) : 329. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2678105.

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Bauer, Daniel, et George Zanjani. « The Marginal Cost of Risk, Risk Measures, and Capital Allocation ». Management Science 62, n^o 5 (mai 2016) : 1431–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2190.

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Glasserman, Paul. « Measuring marginal risk contributions in credit portfolios ». Journal of Computational Finance 9, n^o 2 (décembre 2005) : 1–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.21314/jcf.2005.160.

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Siller, Thomas. « Measuring marginal risk contributions in credit portfolios ». Quantitative Finance 13, n^o 12 (décembre 2013) : 1915–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2012.742203.

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Kreps, R. « Reinsurer risk loads from marginal surplus requirements ». Insurance : Mathematics and Economics 12, n^o 1 (février 1993) : 73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0167-6687(93)91028-s.

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14

Wakker, Peter. « Separating marginal utility and probabilistic risk aversion ». Theory and Decision 36, n^o 1 (janvier 1994) : 1–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf01075296.

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15

Jackwerth, Jens, et Grigory Vilkov. « Asymmetric Volatility Risk : Evidence from Option Markets* ». Review of Finance 23, n^o 4 (14 juillet 2018) : 777–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfy025.

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Abstract Asymmetric volatility concerns the relation of returns to future expected volatility. Much is known from option prices about the marginal risk-neutral distributions (RNDs) of S&P 500 returns and of relative changes in future expected volatility (VIX). While the bivariate RND cannot be inferred from the marginals, we propose a novel identification based on long-dated index options. We estimate the risk-neutral asymmetric volatility implied correlation (AVIC) and find it to be significantly lower than its realized counterpart. We interpret the economics of the asymmetric volatility correlation risk premium and use AVIC to predict returns, volatility, and risk-neutral quantities.

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16

Chun, So Yeon, et Miguel A. Lejeune. « Risk-Based Loan Pricing : Portfolio Optimization Approach with Marginal Risk Contribution ». Management Science 66, n^o 8 (août 2020) : 3735–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2019.3378.

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We consider a lender (bank) that determines the optimal loan price (interest rate) to offer to prospective borrowers under uncertain borrower response and default risk. A borrower may or may not accept the loan at the price offered, and both the principal loaned and the interest income become uncertain because of the risk of default. We present a risk-based loan pricing optimization framework that explicitly takes into account the marginal risk contribution, the portfolio risk, and a borrower’s acceptance probability. Marginal risk assesses the incremental risk contribution of a prospective loan to the bank’s overall portfolio risk by capturing the dependencies between the prospective loan and the existing portfolio and is evaluated with respect to the value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk measures. We examine the properties and computational challenges of the formulations. We design a reformulation method based on the concavifiability concept to transform the nonlinear objective functions and to derive equivalent mixed-integer nonlinear reformulations with convex continuous relaxations. We also extend the approach to multiloan pricing problems, which feature explicit loan selection decisions in addition to pricing decisions. We derive formulations with multiple loans that take the form of mixed-integer nonlinear problems with nonconvex continuous relaxations and develop a computationally efficient algorithmic method. We provide numerical evidence demonstrating the value of the proposed framework, test the computational tractability, and discuss managerial implications. This paper was accepted by Chung Piaw Teo, optimization.

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Gerking, Shelby, Wiktor Adamowicz, Mark Dickie et Marcella Veronesi. « Baseline risk and marginal willingness to pay for health risk reduction ». Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 55, n^o 2-3 (décembre 2017) : 177–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-017-9267-x.

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Ji, Ran, et Miguel A. Lejeune. « Risk-budgeting multi-portfolio optimization with portfolio and marginal risk constraints ». Annals of Operations Research 262, n^o 2 (29 octobre 2015) : 547–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-015-2044-9.

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19

Rüschendorf, L. « Risk bounds with additional information on functionals of the risk vector ». Dependence Modeling 6, n^o 1 (6 juin 2018) : 102–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/demo-2018-0006.

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Abstract We consider the problem of determining risk bounds for the Value at Risk for risk vectors X where besides the marginal distributions also information on the distribution or on the expectation of some functionals Tj(X), 1 ≤ j ≤ m, is available. In particular this formulation includes the case where information on subgroup sums or maxima or on the correlations or covariances is available. Based on the method of dual bounds we obtain improved risk bounds compared to the marginal case. In general the explicit calculation of the dual bounds poses a challenge. We discuss various forms of relaxation of these bounds which are accessible and in some cases even lead to sharp bounds.

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20

Morton, Lindsay M., Sophia S. Wang, Wendy Cozen, Martha S. Linet, Nilanjan Chatterjee, Scott Davis, Richard K. Severson et al. « Etiologic heterogeneity among non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes ». Blood 112, n^o 13 (15 décembre 2008) : 5150–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1182/blood-2008-01-133587.

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Abstract Understanding patterns of etiologic commonality and heterogeneity for non-Hodgkin lymphomas may illuminate lymphomagenesis. We present the first systematic comparison of risks by lymphoma subtype for a broad range of putative risk factors in a population-based case-control study, including diffuse large B-cell (DLBCL; N = 416), follicular (N = 318), and marginal zone lymphomas (N = 106), and chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL; N = 133). We required at least 2 of 3 analyses to support differences in risk: (1) polytomous logistic regression, (2) homogeneity tests, or (3) dichotomous logistic regression, analyzing all 7 possible pairwise comparisons among the subtypes, corresponding to various groupings by clinical behavior, genetic features, and differentiation. Late birth order and high body mass index (≥ 35) kg/m2) increased risk for DLBCL alone. Autoimmune conditions increased risk for marginal zone lymphoma alone. The tumor necrosis factor G-308A polymorphism (rs1800629) increased risks for both DLBCL and marginal zone lymphoma. Exposure to certain dietary heterocyclic amines from meat consumption increased risk for CLL/SLL alone. We observed no significant risk factors for follicular lymphoma alone. These data clearly support both etiologic commonality and heterogeneity for lymphoma subtypes, suggesting that immune dysfunction is of greater etiologic importance for DLBCL and marginal zone lymphoma than for CLL/SLL and follicular lymphoma.

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Caprara, Gian Vittorio, Kenneth A. Dodge, Concetta Pastorelli et Arnaldo Zelli. « The Effects of Marginal Deviations on Behavioral Development ». European Psychologist 11, n^o 2 (janvier 2006) : 79–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/1016-9040.11.2.79.

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This investigation was conceptually framed within the theory of marginal deviations ( Caprara & Zimbardo, 1996 ) and sought evidence for the general hypothesis that some children who initially show marginal behavioral problems may, over time, develop more serious problems depending partly on other personal and behavioral characteristics. To this end, the findings of two studies conducted, respectively, with American elementary school children and Italian middle school students are reviewed. These two studies show that hyperactivity, cognitive difficulties, low social preference, and lack of prosocial behavior increase a child's risk for growth in aggressive behavior over several school years. More importantly, they also show that equivalent levels of these risk factors have a greater impact on the development of children who, early on, were marginally aggressive.

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22

Gegax, Douglas, Shelby Gerking et William Schulze. « Perceived Risk and the Marginal Value of Safety ». Review of Economics and Statistics 73, n^o 4 (novembre 1991) : 589. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2109397.

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Ozgur, Gozde Ozyanat, Hakki Oguz Kazancioglu, Nihat Demirtas, Sabire Deger et Gulsum Ak. « Risk Factors Associated With Implant Marginal Bone Loss ». Implant Dentistry 25, n^o 1 (février 2016) : 122–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/id.0000000000000366.

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White, Harry L., et L. Dwayne Barney. « The Marginal Cost of Capital and Shareholder Risk ». Financial Management 18, n^o 4 (1989) : 11. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3665792.

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25

Ball, Simon. « Aggregating Marginal Gains in Posttransplant CMV Risk Stratification ». Transplantation 101, n^o 10 (octobre 2017) : 2273–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/tp.0000000000001869.

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Wang, Qin, Guangyuan Zhang, James D. McCalley, Tongxin Zheng et Eugene Litvinov. « Risk-Based Locational Marginal Pricing and Congestion Management ». IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 29, n^o 5 (septembre 2014) : 2518–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2014.2305303.

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Gollier, C. « Discounting and risk adjusting non-marginal investment projects ». European Review of Agricultural Economics 38, n^o 3 (12 juillet 2011) : 325–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbr028.

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Jouini, Elyès, Clotilde Napp et Diego Nocetti. « The marginal propensity to consume and multidimensional risk ». Economics Letters 119, n^o 2 (mai 2013) : 124–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.02.002.

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Franke, Ulrik, et Amanda Hoxell. « Observable Cyber Risk on Cournot Oligopoly Data Storage Markets ». Risks 8, n^o 4 (12 novembre 2020) : 119. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks8040119.

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With the emergence of global digital service providers, concerns about digital oligopolies have increased, with a wide range of potentially harmful effects being discussed. One of these relates to cyber security, where it has been argued that market concentration can increase cyber risk. Such a state of affairs could have dire consequences for insurers and reinsurers, who underwrite cyber risk and are already very concerned about accumulation risk. Against this background, the paper develops some theory about how convex cyber risk affects Cournot oligopoly markets of data storage. It is demonstrated that with constant or increasing marginal production cost, the addition of increasing marginal cyber risk cost decreases the differences between the optimal numbers of records stored by the oligopolists, in effect offsetting the advantage of lower marginal production cost. Furthermore, based on the empirical literature on data breach cost, two possibilities are found: (i) that such cyber risk exhibits decreasing marginal cost in the number of records stored and (ii) the opposite possibility that such cyber risk instead exhibits increasing marginal cost in the number of records stored. The article is concluded with a discussion of the findings and some directions for future research.

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Just, David R., et Travis J. Lybbert. « Risk Averters that Love Risk ? Marginal Risk Aversion in Comparison to a Reference Gamble ». American Journal of Agricultural Economics 91, n^o 3 (août 2009) : 612–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2009.01273.x.

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Goyal, Anubhav, et Joana Pereira. « Livelihood strategies to address water induced vulnerability on marginal settlements : Lessons from Northern Mozambique and Mumbai ». Cuadernos de Investigación Urbanística, n^o 143 (10 octobre 2022) : 79–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.20868/ciur.2022.143.4999.

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AbstractIncrease in water induced risks are realized with marginal settlements being more vulnerable due to limited adaptive capacity. The challenge put forward by climate change, in absence of adequate formal strategies, has forced the dwellers of marginal settlements, over the years, to adopt local adaptation strategies to survive the risk and live in harmony with water. The highly diverse characteristics based on livelihoods and social networks provide for adaptive capacity of the dwellers. The objective of the paper is to identify these strategies based on livelihoods or the daily activities of the dwellers within the marginal settlements in different territories. Rural marginal communities in Northern Mozambique and urban in Mumbai are assessed by direct observations, interpretation from collected images and literature review to present a framework of strategies based on livelihoods. Result provides for holistic findings that contribute to the lexicon of water-risk adaptation for marginal settlements in developing countries.

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Luu, Andreas Minh, Sina Rabea Vogel, Chris Braumann, Michael Praktiknjo, Philipp Höhn, Sarah Förster, Monika Janot, Waldemar Uhl et Orlin Belyaev. « Risk factors for perforated marginal ulcers following pancreaticoduodenectomy and prospective analysis of marginal ulcer development ». Gland Surgery 10, n^o 2 (février 2021) : 739–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.21037/gs-20-763.

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Hürlimann, Werner. « ON SOME PROPERTIES OF TWO VECTOR-VALUED VAR AND CTE MULTIVARIATE RISK MEASURES FOR ARCHIMEDEAN COPULAS ». ASTIN Bulletin 44, n^o 3 (16 juin 2014) : 613–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/asb.2014.15.

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AbstractWe consider the multivariate Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional-Tail-Expectation (CTE) risk measures introduced in Cousin and Di Bernardino (Cousin, A. and Di Bernardino, E. (2013) Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 119, 32–46; Cousin, A. and Di Bernardino, E. (2014) Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 55(C), 272–282). For absolutely continuous Archimedean copulas, we derive integral formulas for the multivariate VaR and CTE Archimedean risk measures. We show that each component of the multivariate VaR and CTE functional vectors is an integral transform of the corresponding univariate VaR measures. For the class of Archimedean copulas, the marginal components of the CTE vector satisfy the following properties: positive homogeneity (PH), translation invariance (TI), monotonicity (MO), safety loading (SL) and VaR inequality (VIA). In case marginal risks satisfy the subadditivity (MSA) property, the marginal CTE components are also sub-additive and hitherto coherent risk measures in the usual sense. Moreover, the increasing risk (IR) or stop-loss order preserving property of the marginal CTE components holds for the class of bivariate Archimedean copulas. A counterexample to the (IR) property for the trivariate Clayton copula is included.

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LORENZ, ALEXANDER, ELMAR KRIEGLER, HERMANN HELD et MATTHIAS G. W. SCHMIDT. « HOW TO MEASURE THE IMPORTANCE OF CLIMATE RISK FOR DETERMINING OPTIMAL GLOBAL ABATEMENT POLICIES ? » Climate Change Economics 03, n^o 01 (février 2012) : 1250004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007812500042.

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We investigate the importance of explicitly accounting for uncertainty in the determination of optimal global climate policy. We demonstrate that the marginal risk premium determines the importance of adapting the optimal policy to uncertainty. Common integrated assessment models (IAM) of climate change suggest uncertainty has little effect because the marginal risk premium in these models is small. A rigorous investigation of the marginal risk premium and the marginal functional relationships within IAMs allows understanding the non-significance of (thin-tailed) uncertainty as a result of compensating factors in the climate cause-effect chain.

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Augustin, Patrick, et Yehuda Izhakian. « Ambiguity, Volatility, and Credit Risk ». Review of Financial Studies 33, n^o 4 (29 juillet 2019) : 1618–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz082.

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Abstract We explore the implications of ambiguity for the pricing of credit default swaps (CDSs). A model of heterogeneous investors with independent preferences for ambiguity and risk shows that, because CDS contracts are assets in zero net supply, the net credit risk exposure of the marginal investor determines the sign of the impact of ambiguity on CDS spreads. We find that ambiguity has an economically significant negative impact on CDS spreads, on average, suggesting that the marginal investor is a net buyer of credit protection. A 1-standard-deviation increase in ambiguity is estimated to decrease CDS spreads by approximately 6%. (JEL C65, D81, D83, G13, G22) Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

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36

Qin, Xiao, et Chen Zhou. « Systemic risk allocation using the asymptotic marginal expected shortfall ». Journal of Banking & ; Finance 126 (mai 2021) : 106099. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2021.106099.

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Herrera-Araujo, Daniel, Christoph M. Rheinberger et James K. Hammitt. « Valuing non-marginal changes in mortality and morbidity risk ». Journal of Health Economics 84 (juillet 2022) : 102627. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2022.102627.

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38

Eisenberg, Larry. « The marginal price of risk with a VaR constraint ». Journal of Risk 9, n^o 4 (juin 2007) : 21–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.21314/jor.2007.171.

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Hamid, Shahid S., Arun J. Prakash et Michael W. Smyser. « Marginal risk aversion and preferences in a betting market ». Applied Economics 28, n^o 3 (mars 1996) : 371–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/000368496328740.

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Burke, J. Ryan, Ignacio G. Duarte, Vinod H. Thourani et Joseph I. Miller. « Preoperative risk assessment for marginal patients requiring pulmonary resection ». Annals of Thoracic Surgery 76, n^o 5 (novembre 2003) : 1767–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0003-4975(03)00650-7.

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Jackard, Charles R. « Reaching the Under-Challenged, Marginal, or At-Risk Student ». Clearing House : A Journal of Educational Strategies, Issues and Ideas 62, n^o 3 (novembre 1988) : 128–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00098655.1988.10114027.

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Møller, Martin Nue, et Christian Hjort Sørensen. « Risk of marginal mandibular nerve injury in neck dissection ». European Archives of Oto-Rhino-Laryngology 269, n^o 2 (8 mai 2011) : 601–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00405-011-1610-2.

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Li, Qian, et Yanqin Bai. « Optimal trade-off portfolio selection between total risk and maximum relative marginal risk† ». Optimization Methods and Software 31, n^o 4 (26 mai 2015) : 681–700. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10556788.2015.1041946.

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Sameem, Maryam, et Muhammad Arshad. « Preliminary Analysis of PON3 rs2375003 Polymorphism in Pakistani Patients with Coronary Artery Disease ». Folia Biologica 67, n^o 3 (30 septembre 2019) : 141–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.3409/fb_67-3.14.

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Coronary artery disease (CAD) is an inflammatory heart disease characterized by the narrowing of coronary arteries. Paraoxonase 3 (PON3) is a candidate gene for protection against CAD development as it reduces oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation. The present study aimed to explore the association of PON3 rs2375003 polymorphism with CAD development and serum lipid levels in the Pakistani population. Study subjects included 300 CAD patients and 300 age and sex matched healthy individuals. The genotyping of rs2375003 polymorphism was done using an allele specific polymerase chain reaction and serum lipid levels were determined. In this study, the genotype frequencies of rs2375003 polymorphismin in CAD patients were TT (2%), CT (8%), CC (90%) as compared to TT (3%), CT (6%), CC (91%) in the healthy subjects. No association was observed between rs2375003 polymorphism and CAD risk (p>0.05). The CT genotype of rs2375003 polymorphism marginally increased the risk for CAD development (OR: 1.36; 95% CI 0.72-2.56) by causing a marginal rise in total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglyceride levels, and a marginal drop in high density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. The CT genotype of rs2375003 polymorphism and altered lipid levels might act as potential risk factors in the etiology of CAD in the Pakistani population.

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Shao, Hui. « Decomposing aggregate risk into marginal risks under partial information : A top-down method ». Statistics & ; Probability Letters 124 (mai 2017) : 97–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.spl.2017.01.015.

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Parker, Mike. « The Aggregation of Marginal Gains ». Bulletin of the Royal College of Surgeons of England 93, n^o 7 (1 juillet 2011) : 236–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1308/147363511x582239.

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In April 2011, a major paper in Gut analysed data from the National Cancer Intelligence Network (NCIN) and was able to provide for the first time risk-adjusted unit-level mortality rates for colorectal cancer surgery. This breakthrough study identified several outlying units – one of which (The Shrewsbury and Telford Hospital NHS Trust) was found to be doing significantly better than expected. Mike Parker, President of the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, visited the trust to try to learn the secrets of their success.

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Wu, Lin, Jing Lin, Jing Liu, Shuo-Feng Chang, Yuan-Yuan Wang et Zhi-Jun Liu. « Affect Heuristic As a Function of Trust in Risk Communication ». Social Behavior and Personality : an international journal 44, n^o 4 (18 mai 2016) : 619–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2224/sbp.2016.44.4.619.

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We examined whether or not decision makers' level of trust in risk management institutions is an important determinant of their reliance on the affect heuristic for making evaluations and decisions. In Study 1 (N = 419), we examined how the delivery and context of warning information may influence individuals' marginal trust in risk management institutions. In Study 2 (N = 414), we combined marginal trust with message probability to explore (a) how marginal trust and message extremity probability influence public trust in warning information, and (b) how public trust in institutions moderates individuals' reliance on the affect heuristic in risk perceptions. In Study 3 (N = 45), we tested the generalizability of the moderating effect of public trust. Results showed that reliance on affect as a kind of heuristic was more marked among decision makers with a high, vs. low, level of trust in the relevant institutions.

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48

Zubovа, Lyudmila V., Eduard Viktorovich Korovin, Alexey Sergeevich Smirnov, Vladimir N. Kuzmin et Andrey Valerievich Kurakov. « Development of Problem-Oriented Management and Decision-Making System and Optimization of Economic and Social Systems ». Webology 18, SI05 (30 octobre 2021) : 436–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.14704/web/v18si05/web18239.

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The main goal of this study is to develop the theory of risk tolerance in task-oriented processes (using the example of enterprises engaged in research, development, and engineering), which is preceded by an analysis of scientific and methodological provisions for substantiating management decisions when developing promising space rocket technology under economic risks. The complexity of developing the theory of risk tolerance using the example of enterprises involved in the development of military and dual-use equipment lies in the multistructured evaluating system itself, justified by its multicomponent structure and large scale of topological complexity and logic of functioning in various modes and under different conditions, which leads to the need to divide it into a set of subsystems as moving substances in the process of task-oriented processes that have informational, methodological, and algorithmic commonality. That is accompanied by the decentralization of information processing in a structural parametric uncertainty. In this regard, in order to parameterize the uncertainty processes, the authors present a risk tolerance level assessment process diagram in task-oriented processes when developing military and dual-use equipment. Using the algorithm for determining the marginal cost of risk, marginal risk tolerance, and marginal risk level of an economic entity according to the method of L.V. Zubova, the work presents an approach of potentially dangerous risks (PDR) categorization of the financial and economic sphere and suggests ways to minimize risk, taking into account, if possible, risk rejection, determining the "cost of no action" in the face of uncertainty.

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Heron, D. H., et F. A. Jacobs. « THE ECONOMICS OF MARGINAL OFFSHORE OILFIELDS IN AUSTRALIA ». APPEA Journal 26, n^o 1 (1986) : 67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/aj85007.

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Australia's self sufficiency in oil will drop to below 50 per cent by the middle of the next decade unless major discoveries are made within the next few years. There is still a confusing series of permit regimes and fiscal frameworks applicable to exploration and development operations, and no indication of any upturn in offshore activity. If the decline in self sufficiency is to be halted, Industry needs to be assured that it will be allowed to operate under a simple unchanging set of rules such that it is guaranteed a fair return on its risk capital investment.There are many marginal oil discoveries which remain undeveloped for a variety of reasons, but the economics of their development must obviously be the one major limiting factor. A recoverable reserve of 15 million barrels of oil with peak production of about 8000 barrels of oil per day will in most instances provide a base development level with rate of return of 15 + per cent after tax. The new resource rent tax will have only a marginal impact on a development of this size, but the increasing impact of the resource rent tax as reserves and productivity increase above the base level will limit the rate of return on many marginal offshore discoveries to about 21 per cent.It is in marginal discoveries that there is a significant downside risk in development, and producers need to be assured of a reasonable risk loaded rate of return before committing to development. There are many ways of protecting operating companies from the relatively high risks of entering into a marginal offshore development. We have looked at only one of these and suggest that government might consider a lowering of the resource rent tax to 20 per cent for projects with reserves of less than 25 million barrels.

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Vinnem, J. E., S. Haugen et R. Bo̸rresen. « Risk Assessment of Production and Storage Tankers ». Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering 118, n^o 3 (1 août 1996) : 198–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.2828834.

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Production and storage tankers are being evaluated extensively for development of marginal oil and gas fields in the North Sea. The main safety aspects of these vessels are discussed, based on a number of quantitative risk assessments for these vessel concepts. These studies have confirmed the importance of several important safety features, such as a fire-protected, enclosed escape way along one of the sides of the ship. Other important safety features include weather-vaning capability as a function of the turret location, location and configuration of the flare system, protection of cargo tanks by inert gas blanketing, as well as procedures for strict control of tank intervention. The results, show that the production and storage vessels have favorable safety characteristics, and that these concepts represent an acceptable and feasible solution for the marginal fields.

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