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Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Marginal risk »

Auteur : Grafiati

Publié le 9 mars 2023

Mis à jour le 10 mars 2023

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Marginal risk"

Keel, Simon, et David Ardia. « Generalized marginal risk ». Journal of Asset Management 12, n^o 2 (10 mars 2011) : 123–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/jam.2010.30.

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Chambers, Robert G. « On Marginal‐Risk Behavior ». American Journal of Agricultural Economics 98, n^o 2 (11 juin 2015) : 406–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aav027.

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Venter, Gary G., John A. Major et Rodney E. Kreps. « Marginal Decomposition of Risk Measures ». ASTIN Bulletin 36, n^o 02 (novembre 2006) : 375–413. http://dx.doi.org/10.2143/ast.36.2.2017927.

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The marginal approach to risk and return analysis compares the marginal return from a business decision to the marginal risk imposed. Allocation distributes the total company risk to business units and compares the profit/risk ratio of the units. These approaches coincide when the allocation actually assigns the marginal risk to each business unit, i.e., when the marginal impacts add up to the total risk measure. This is possible for one class of risk measures (scalable measures) under the assumption of homogeneous growth and by a subclass (transformed probability measures) otherwise. For homogeneous growth, the allocation of scalable measures can be accomplished by the directional derivative. The first well known additive marginal allocations were the Myers-Read method from Myers and Read (2001) and co-Tail Value at Risk, discussed in Tasche (2000). Now we see that there are many others, which allows the choice of risk measure to be based on economic meaning rather than the availability of an allocation method. We prefer the term “decomposition” to “allocation” here because of the use of the method of co-measures, which quantifies the component composition of a risk measure rather than allocating it proportionally to something. Risk adjusted profitability calculations that do not rely on capital allocation still may involve decomposition of risk measures. Such a case is discussed. Calculation issues for directional derivatives are also explored.

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Sjoberg, Lennart. « Consequences matter, ‘risk’ is marginal ». Journal of Risk Research 3, n^o 3 (juillet 2000) : 287–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13669870050043189.

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Venter, Gary G., John A. Major et Rodney E. Kreps. « Marginal Decomposition of Risk Measures ». ASTIN Bulletin 36, n^o 2 (novembre 2006) : 375–413. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0515036100014562.

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The marginal approach to risk and return analysis compares the marginal return from a business decision to the marginal risk imposed. Allocation distributes the total company risk to business units and compares the profit/risk ratio of the units. These approaches coincide when the allocation actually assigns the marginal risk to each business unit, i.e., when the marginal impacts add up to the total risk measure. This is possible for one class of risk measures (scalable measures) under the assumption of homogeneous growth and by a subclass (transformed probability measures) otherwise. For homogeneous growth, the allocation of scalable measures can be accomplished by the directional derivative. The first well known additive marginal allocations were the Myers-Read method from Myers and Read (2001) and co-Tail Value at Risk, discussed in Tasche (2000). Now we see that there are many others, which allows the choice of risk measure to be based on economic meaning rather than the availability of an allocation method. We prefer the term “decomposition” to “allocation” here because of the use of the method of co-measures, which quantifies the component composition of a risk measure rather than allocating it proportionally to something.Risk adjusted profitability calculations that do not rely on capital allocation still may involve decomposition of risk measures. Such a case is discussed. Calculation issues for directional derivatives are also explored.

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Williams, Thomas E., William J. Fanning, W. C. Benton, Gerard S. Kakos, Randall L. Miller, William J. Esterline et Thomas D. Hankins. « What is the marginal cost for marginal risk in cardiac surgery ? » Annals of Thoracic Surgery 66, n^o 6 (décembre 1998) : 1969–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0003-4975(98)00820-0.

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Zhu, Shushang, Duan Li et Xiaoling Sun. « Portfolio selection with marginal risk control ». Journal of Computational Finance 14, n^o 1 (septembre 2010) : 3–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.21314/jcf.2010.213.

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Chen, Tao, Jing Rong Goh, Shinichi Kamiya et Pingyi Lou. « Marginal cost of risk-based capital and risk-taking ». Journal of Banking & ; Finance 103 (juin 2019) : 130–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.03.011.

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Tzeng, Larry Y. « Increase in Risk and Weaker Marginal-Payoff-Weighted Risk Dominance ». Journal of Risk and Insurance 68, n^o 2 (juin 2001) : 329. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2678105.

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Bauer, Daniel, et George Zanjani. « The Marginal Cost of Risk, Risk Measures, and Capital Allocation ». Management Science 62, n^o 5 (mai 2016) : 1431–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2190.

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Thèses sur le sujet "Marginal risk"

Bassoli, Elena <1991&gt. « The effect of health on the marginal utility of consumption expenditures and on attitudes towards risk ». Doctoral thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/17804.

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This thesis focuses on the effect of health on the risk attitudes and on the marginal utility of consumption. In the first chapter we explore the effect of health deterioration on the risk tolerance as people get older. In the second chapter we assess how health decline impact on the marginal utility of consumption when agents are hit by a shock. Finally, in the third chapter we exploit innovative elicited risk attitude measures in different domains and their behavioural validity in predicting risky behaviours.

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Bakker, Rinke. « The influence of consolidation and internationalization on systemic risk in the financial sector ». Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-347180.

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This paper analyses the impact of banking mergers on systemic risk, with in particular if internationalization prior to acquisition increases systemic risk. By using the marginal expected shortfall methodology for an international sample of mergers, a significant increase in systemic risk is found as a result of mergers in the financial sector. Moreover, if a bank is operating internationally prior to acquisition, this increases systemic risk. Additionally, there is evidence of a too-big-to-fail motive for relatively smaller banks to use mergers to become systemically important. The results confirm that consolidation in the financial sector increases fragility of the financial system.

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Antunes, Tiago André Cardoso. « Análise de risco de crédito : modelação de distribuições baseada em cópulas ». Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/4981.

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Mestrado em Finanças
O risco de crédito é definido pela relação de incerteza em receber numa data futura o valor emprestado. Devido ao crescente volume de perdas de capital assim como ao maior rigor por parte das instituições reguladoras, a gestão do risco de crédito assume actualmente um papel fundamental na actividade bancária. A teoria de Cópulas surge como um modelo matemático que permite ajustar e compreender a relação de dependência entre diferentes distribuições marginais ou de variáveis. Os resultados obtidos confirmam a existência de relações de dependência entre perda de crédito e as diferentes variáveis de risco, demonstrando a possibilidade de modelação através da sua cópula.
The credit risk is defined as the ratio of uncertainty in receiving at a future date the amount borrowed. Due to the increasing volume of loss of capital, as well as the greater rigor on the part of regulatory entities, the management of credit risk plays currently a key role in banking activity. The Copula's theory appears such as a mathematical model that allows you to adjust and understand the relationship of dependence between different marginal distributions or risk variables. It is therefore expected that a multivariate distribution still that composed by different marginal distributions can have their dependence relations modeled by the Copula’s families that best fit to each specific case.

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Meyer, Albrecht H. H. [Verfasser]. « Transformation and additional malignancies are leading risk factors for an adverse course of disease in marginal zone lymphoma / Albrecht H.-H. Meyer ». Berlin : Medizinische Fakultät Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1079841113/34.

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Börsum, Jakob. « Estimating Causal Effects Of Relapse Treatment On The Risk For Acute Myocardial Infarction Among Patients With Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma ». Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-447241.

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This empirical register study intends to estimate average causal effects of relapse treatment on the risk for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) among patients with Diffuse B-Cell Lymphoma (DLBCL) within the potential outcome framework. The report includes a brief introduction to causal inference and survival anal- ysis and mentions specific causal parameters of interest that will be estimated. A cohort of 2887 Swedish DLBCL patients between 2007 and 2014 were included in the study where 560 patients suffered a relapse. The relapse treatment is hypothesised to be cardiotoxic and induces an increased risk of heart diseases. The identifiability assumptions need to hold to estimate average causal effects and are assessed in this report. The patient cohort is weighted using inverse probability of treatment and censoring weights and potential marginal survival curves are estimated from marginal structural Cox models. The resulting point estimate indicates a protective causal effect of relapse treatment on AMI but estimated bootstrap confidence intervals suggest no significant effect on the 5% significance level.

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Cordeiro, Fabio Nunez Barja. « Aplicação da teoria de cópulas para o cálculo do value at risk ». reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/4306.

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Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T21:00:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 4 Fabio Nunes Barja.pdf.jpg: 2268 bytes, checksum: 3ff1d834aa6bf6835efe6dd07835326c (MD5) Fabio Nunes Barja.pdf.txt: 144718 bytes, checksum: 86d161817200706186fc58ff0c7b1cd4 (MD5) license.txt: 4712 bytes, checksum: 4dea6f7333914d9740702a2deb2db217 (MD5) Fabio Nunes Barja.pdf: 920446 bytes, checksum: 547cbd04aa1355d329be524b2fe94b1d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-11-30T00:00:00Z
Este trabalho aplica a teoria de cópulas à mensuração do risco de mercado, através do cálculo do Value at Risk (VaR). A função de cópula oferece uma maior flexibilidade para a agregação de riscos quando comparada com abordagens tradicionais de mensuração de risco. A teoria de cópulas permite a utilização de distribuições de probabilidade diferentes da normal para a modelagem individual dos fatores de risco. Além disso, diferentes estruturas de associação entre eles podem ser aplicadas sem que restrições sejam impostas às suas distribuições. Dessa forma, premissas como a normalidade conjunta dos retornos e a linearidade na dependência entre fatores de risco podem ser dispensadas, possibilitando a correta modelagem de eventos conjuntos extremos e de assimetria na relação de dependência. Após a apresentação dos principais conceitos associados ao tema, um modelo de cópula foi desenvolvido para o cálculo do VaR de três carteiras, expostas aos mercados brasileiros cambial e acionário. Em seguida, a sua precisão foi comparada com a das metodologias tradicionais delta-normal e de simulação histórica. Os resultados mostraram que o modelo baseado na teoria de cópulas foi superior aos tradicionais na previsão de eventos extremos, representados pelo VaR 99%. No caso do VaR 95%, o modelo delta-normal apresentou o melhor desempenho. Finalmente, foi possível concluir que o estudo da teoria de cópulas é de grande relevância para a gestão de riscos financeiros. Fica a sugestão de que variações do modelo de VaR desenvolvido neste trabalho sejam testadas, e que esta teoria seja também aplicada à gestão de outros riscos, como o de crédito, operacional, e até mesmo o risco integrado.
This study applies the theory of copulas to the measurement of market risk by doing the Value at Risk (VaR) calculation. The copula function offers a greater flexibility to aggregate the risks as compared to traditional approaches of risk measurement. The theory of copulas enables the use of probability distributions different from the normal to the individual modeling of risk factors. Furthermore, different association structures between them can be applied with no restrictions being imposed to its distributions. Thus, premises such as joint normality of returns and linearity in the dependence between risk factors can be dismissed, what enables the correct modelling of extreme joint events and of asymmetry in the dependence relation. After presenting the main concepts associated to the theme, a copula model was developed in order to calculate the VaR for three portfolios which are exposed to the Brazilian foreign exchange and stock markets. Afterwards, its accuracy was compared with that of traditional methodologies, i.e., delta-normal and historic simulation. The results showed that the model based on the theory of copulas was superior to the traditional ones at forecasting extreme events, which are represented by VaR 99%. When it comes to VaR 95%, the delta-normal model presented the best results. Finally, it was possible to conclude that the theory of copulas study is of great relevance to financial risks management. For further research, a suggestion is testing variations of the VaR model developed in this work, as well as applying this theory to managing other risks, such as credit, operational or even integrated risk.

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LOREGIAN, ANGELA. « Multivariate Lèvy models : estimation and asset allocation ». Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10281/49727.

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Multidimensional asset models based on Lévy processes have been introduced to meet the necessity of capturing market shocks using more refined distribution assumptions compared to the standard Gaussian framework. In particular, along with accurately modeling marginal distributions of asset returns, capturing the dependence structure among them is of paramount importance, for example, to correctly price derivatives written on more than one underlying asset. Most of the literature on multivariate Lévy models focuses in fact on pricing multi-asset products, which is also the case of the model introduced in Ballotta and Bonfiglioli (2014). Believing that risk and portfolio management applications may benefit from a better description of the joint distribution of the returns as well, we choose to adopt Ballotta and Bonfiglioli (2014) model for asset allocation purposes and we empirically test its performances. We choose this model since, besides its flexibility and the ability to properly capture the dependence among assets, it is simple, relatively parsimonious and it has an immediate and intuitive interpretation, retaining a high degree of mathematical tractability. In particular we test two specifications of the general model, assuming respectively a pure jump process, more precisely the normal inverse Gaussian process, or a jump-diffusion process, precisely Merton’s jump-diffusion process, for all the components involved in the model construction. To estimate the model we propose a simple and easy-to-implement three-step procedure, which we assess via simulations, comparing the results with those obtained through a more computationally intensive one-step maximum likelihood estimation. We empirically test portfolio construction based on multivariate Lévy models assuming a standard utility maximization framework; for the exponential utility function we get a closed form expression for the expected utility, while for other utility functions (we choose to test the power one) we resort to numerical approximations. Among the benchmark strategies, we consider in our study what we call a ‘non-parametric optimization approach’, based on Gaussian kernel estimation of the portfolio return distribution, which to our knowledge has never been used. A different approach to allocation decisions aims at minimizing portfolio riskiness requiring a minimum expected return. Following Rockafellar and Uryasev (2000), we describe how to solve this optimization problem in our multivariate Lévy framework, when risk is measured by CVaR. Moreover we present formulas and methods to compute, as efficiently as possible, some downside risk measures for portfolios made of assets following the multivariate Lévy model by Ballotta and Bonfiglioli (2014). More precisely, we consider traditional risk measures (VaR and CVaR), the corresponding marginal measures, which evaluate their sensibility to portfolio weights alterations, and intra-horizon risk measures, which take into account the magnitude of losses that can incur before the end of the investment horizon. Formulas for CVaR in monetary terms and marginal measures, together with our approach to evaluate intra-horizon risk, are among the original contributions of this work.

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Bångman, Gunnel. « Equity in welfare evaluations : The rationale for and effects of distributional weighting ». Doctoral thesis, Örebro University, Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics, 2006. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-309.

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This thesis addresses the issue of weighted cost-benefit analysis (WCBA). WCBA is a welfare evaluation model where income distribution effects are valued by distributional weighting. The method was developed already in the 1970s. The interest in and applications of this method have increased in the past decade, e.g. when evaluating of global environmental problems. There are, however, still unsolved problems regarding the application of this method. One such issue is the choice of the approach to the means of estimating of the distributional weights. The literature on WCBA suggests a couple of approaches, but gives no clues as to which one is the most appropriate one to use, either from a theoretical or from an empirical point of view. Accordingly, the choice of distributional weights may be an arbitrary one. In the first paper in this thesis, the consequences of the choice of distributional weights on project decisions have been studied. Different sets of distributional weights have been compared across a variety of strategically chosen income distribution effects. The distributional weights examined are those that correspond to the WCBA approaches commonly suggested in literature on the topic. The results indicate that the choice of distributional weights is of importance for the rank of projects only when the income distribution effects concern target populations with low incomes. The results also show that not only the mean income but also the span of incomes, of the target population of the income distribution effect, affects the result of the distributional weighting when applying very progressive non-linear distributional weights. This may cause the distributional weighting to indicate an income distribution effect even though the project effect is evenly distributed across the population.

One rational for distributional weighting, commonly referred to when applying WCBA, is that marginal utility of income is decreasing with income. In the second paper, this hypothesis is tested. My study contributes to this literature by employing stated preference data on compensated variation (CV) in a model flexible as to the functional form of the marginal utility. The results indicate that the marginal utility of income decreases linearly with income.

Under certain conditions, a decreasing marginal utility of income corresponds to risk aversion. Thus the hypothesis that marginal utility of income is decreasing with income can be tested by analyses of individuals’ behaviour in gambling situations. The third paper examines of the role of risk aversion, defined by the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility function, for people’s concern about the problem of ‘sick’ buildings. The analysis is based on data on the willingness to pay (WTP) for having the indoor air quality (IAQ) at home examined and diagnosed by experts and the WTP for acquiring an IAQ at home that is guaranteed to be good. The results indicate that some of the households are willing to pay for an elimination of the uncertainty of the IAQ at home, even though they are not willing to pay for an elimination of the risks for building related ill health. The probability to pay, for an elimination of the uncertainty of the indoor air quality at home, only because of risk aversion is estimated to 0.3-0.4. Risk aversion seems to be a more common motive, for the decision to pay for a diagnosis of the IAQ at home, among young people.

Another rationale for distributional weighting, commonly referred to, is the existence of unselfish motives for economic behaviour, such as social inequality aversion or altruism. In the fourth paper the hypothesis that people have altruistic preferences, i.e. that they care about other people’s well being, is tested. The WTP for a public project, that ensures good indoor air quality in all buildings, have been measured in three different ways for three randomly drawn sub-samples, capturing different motives for economic behaviour (pure altruism, paternalism and selfishness). The significance of different questions, and different motives, is analysed using an independent samples test of the mean WTPs of the sub-samples, a chi-square test of the association between the WTP and the sample group membership and an econometric analysis of the decision to pay to the public project. No evidence for altruism, either pure altruism or paternalism, is found in this study.

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Facundo, Francisco Rafael Guzman. « Fatores de risco e o significado do consumo de drogas em adolescentes e jovens marginais de bandos juvenis ». Universidade de São Paulo, 2007. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/22/22131/tde-18102007-161851/.

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O abuso no consumo de drogas constitui problema social e de saúde pública na maioria dos países pelas múltiplas conseqüências negativas que provocam sobre o desenvolvimento emocional e físico das pessoas. Grupos reconhecidos como de maior risco para consumir drogas são os grupos marginais e, dentro destes, estão os adolescentes e jovens pertencentes aos bandos juvenis. Os objetivos do presente estudo foram: analisar o efeito dos fatores de risco pessoais (idade, sexo, problemas de saúde mental, baixo nível educacional, ter trabalho remunerado, anos de escolaridade) e interpessoais (relação com amigos sob condutas desajustadas e relação inapropriada com pais) sobre o consumo de drogas lícitas (álcool e tabaco) e ilícitas (maconha, cocaína e inalantes) e, num segundo momento, desenvolver modelo teórico representativo dos significados do consumo de droga em adolescentes e jovens marginais de bandos juvenis. Para tal efeito, realizou-se estudo com metodologia quanti-qualitativa, onde se consideraram 175 sujeitos para o primeiro objetivo. Estimou-se a amostra para uma regressão linear múltipla com sete variáveis, com potência de 0,90, nível de significância de 0,05, para variância estimada de 20% e, para o segundo objetivo, utilizou-se o referencial metodológico da Teoria Fundamentada nos Dados à luz do Interacionismo Simbólico, com amostra de 16 sujeitos. Os resultados dos modelos de regressão logística mostraram efeito significativo dos fatores pessoais sobre o consumo de álcool (x2=30,19; p<0,05), maconha (x2=47,78; p<0,001), cocaína (x2=55,54; p<0,001) e inalantes (x2= 41,79; p<0,001), os fatores de risco pessoais que mostraram maior contribuição nos modelos foram: o sexo (ser homem), idade, problemas de saúde mental e baixo nível educacional; e, os fatores interpessoais: relações com amigos sob condutas desajustadas e relação inapropriada com pais, mostraram um efeito positivo sobre o consumo de álcool (x2=11,96; p=0,003), maconha (x2= 22,56; p<0,001), cocaína (x2=12,44; p=0,002) e inalantes (x2= 14,80; p<0,001). Os fatores de risco pessoais e interpessoais não mostraram efeitos significativos para o consumo de tabaco. Depois de transcrever as entrevistas dos 16 sujeitos, codificou-se em três etapas: codificação aberta, axial e seletiva. Da análise comparativa dos dados resultou a categoria central A GLÓRIA DO PRAZER SOBRE AS CONSEQÜÊNCIAS em relação ao significado do consumo de drogas, e representa as vantagens dos efeitos prazerosos, emocionais, de bemestar, relaxamento, desinibição e, conseqüentemente, risos, denotando sentimentos de felicidade sobre as possíveis conseqüências do consumo de drogas. Esses resultados possibilitaram a reflexão de que, em um futuro próximo, há a necessidade de elaboração de programas adequados direcionados à prevenção nesse grupo de jovens marginais.
Abuse in drugs consumption constitutes a social and public health problem in most countries, due to the multiple negative consequences they provoke for people\'s emotional and physical development. Acknowledged risk groups for drugs consumption are marginal groups, which include adolescents and young people from youth gangs. This study aimed to: analyze the effect of personal (age, gender, mental health problems, low education level, having a paid job, years of education) and interpersonal risk factors (relation with friends with badly adapted conducts and inappropriate relation with parents) on the consumption of legal (alcohol and tobacco) and illegal drugs (marihuana, cocaine and inhalants) and, next, to develop a theoretical model that represents the meanings of drugs consumption in marginal adolescents and young people from youth gangs. Thus, a study was carried out with a quantitative-qualitative methodology. For the first objective, 175 subjects were considered. The sample was estimated for a multiple linear regression with seven variables, with a .90 power and a .05 significance level, for an estimated variance of 20%. For the second objective, the methodological framework of Grounded Theory was used in the light of Symbolic Interactionism, using a sixteen-subject sample. The results of the logistic regression models showed that personal factors exert a significant effect on alcohol consumption (x2=30.19; p<.05), marihuana (x2=47.78; p<.001), cocaine (x2= 55.54; p<.001) and inhalants (x2=41.79; p<.001). The personal risk factors that demonstrated a larger contribution in the models were: gender (being a man), age, mental health problems and low education level; and the interpersonal factors relations with friends with badly adapted conducts and inappropriate relation with parents revealed a positive effect on the consumption of alcohol (x2 =20.65 p<.05), marihuana (x2=22.56; p<.001), cocaine (x2=18.5 p<.05) and inhalants (x2=14.80; p<.001). The personal and interpersonal risk factors did not show significant effects for tobacco consumption. After transcribing the interviews of the 16 subjects, they were coded in three steps: open, axial and selective coding. Comparative data analysis resulted in the central category THE GLORY OF PLEASURE OVER THE CONSEQUENCES with respect to the meaning of drugs consumption, which represents the advantages of the pleasant emotional effects of well-being, relaxation, disinhibition, and, consequently, provoked laughing, indicating feelings of happiness about the possible consequences of drugs consumption. These results allowed for the reflection that, in the near future, there is a need to elaborate adequate prevention programs in this group of marginal young people.

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Thureson, Disa. « Cost-Benefit Analysis of climate policy and long term public investments ». Doctoral thesis, Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-48241.

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This compilation dissertation consists of four essays with the common theme of welfare analysis of long-term public investments. The first two essays focus on analysis of climate change mitigation, i.e., the social cost of carbon dioxide. The third essay focuses on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of transport investment projects, while the last essay takes a broader perspective on welfare analysis. Essay 1: The Temporal Aspects of the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases. The purpose of Essay 1 is to investigate the temporal aspects of the social cost of greenhouse gases. I find that the calculation period should ultimately be modeled to be consistent with the discount rate and that the “global-warming potential” concept is unsuitable for calculation of the social cost of GHGs other than carbon dioxide. Essay 2: Avoiding path dependence of distributional weights: Lessons from climate change economic assessments. In Essay 2, I explore shortcomings in income weighting in evaluation of climate change policy. In short, in previous versions of two of the most important existing models, regional economic growth is double counted. The proposed alternative approaches yield about 20–40% higher values of SCCO2 than the old approach. Essay 3: Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless? In Essay 3, the aim is to investigate to what extent CBA improves the selection decision of projects when uncertainties are taken into account, using a simulation-based approach on real data of infrastructure investments. The results indicate that, in line with previous literature, CBA is a rather robust tool and considerably increases the quality of decision making compared with a random selection mechanism, even when high levels of uncertainty are considered. Essay 4: Household Production and the Elasticity of Marginal Utility of Consumption. In Essay 4, I develop a new model to show that omission of household production in a previous model leads to bias when the elasticity of marginal utility of consumption, EMUC, is estimated. I further offer new, unbiased estimates based on current evidence of the included parameters, suggesting a lower bound of EMUC at about 0.9.

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Livres sur le sujet "Marginal risk"

Flood, Robert P. Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution : Exploiting idiosyncratic risk. Cambridge, Mass : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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Flood, Robert P. Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution : Exploiting idiosyncratic risk. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.

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Kimball, Miles S. Precautionary saving and the marginal propensity to consume. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1990.

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Kaplow, Louis. The value of a statistical life and the coefficient of relative risk aversions. Cambridge, Mass : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003.

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India. Central Pollution Control Board. Computation of societal risk abatement cost and long run marginal financial cost with regard to dioxin and furan emission standards for common hazardous waste incinerator. Delhi : Central Pollution Control Board, Ministry of Environment & Forests, Govt. of India, 2011.

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The rise of the marginal utility school, 1870-1889. New York : Columbia University Press, 1989.

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Statham, Anne. The rise of marginal voices : Gender balance in the workplace. Lanham : University Press of America, 1996.

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Adjusting margin and risk : Tips and tricks to reduce margin requirements and alleviate margin calls. Upper Saddle River, N.J : FTPress Delivers, 2010.

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Business Risk Mitigation and Price Stabilization Act of 2011 : Report (to accompany H.R. 2682) (including cost estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). [Washington, D.C : U.S. G.P.O., 2011.

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Aiyagari, S. Rao. "Overreaction" of asset prices in general equilibrium. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1998.

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Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Marginal risk"

Saenger, Michael. « “Dead for a Ducat” : Tragedy and Marginal Risk ». Dans Shakespeare and the French Borders of English, 147–69. New York : Palgrave Macmillan US, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137357397_7.

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Bahraoui, Zuhair, Catalina Bolancé et Ramon Alemany. « Estimating Risk with Sarmanov Copula and Nonparametric Marginal Distributions ». Dans Modeling and Simulation in Engineering, Economics, and Management, 91–98. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-38279-6_10.

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Meacci, Ferdinando. « The Principle of Increasing Risk versus the Marginal Efficiency of Capital ». Dans Kalecki’s Relevance Today, 231–45. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-10376-8_14.

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Rahman, Mohammad Mahbubur, et Mizanur Rahman Bijoy. « Assessing Loss and Damage of Low-Exposed Sudden-Onset Disasters : Evidence from the Marginal Salt Cultivators of Kutubdia Island, Bangladesh ». Dans Disaster Risk Reduction for Resilience, 21–44. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08325-9_2.

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Lejeune, Miguel. « Chapter 32 : Stochastic Optimization Investment Models with Portfolio and Marginal Risk Constraints ». Dans Advances and Trends in Optimization with Engineering Applications, 427–35. Philadelphia, PA : Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611974683.ch32.

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Harr, Patrick A., Antoni Jordi et Luke Madaus. « Analysis of the Future Change in Frequency of Tropical Cyclone-Related Impacts Due to Compound Extreme Events ». Dans Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate, 87–120. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08568-0_5.

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AbstractTropical cyclone-related hazards are often comprised of compound, connected events that individually amplify the total impacts. Often, hazard risk assessments focus on one factor rather than the compound nature of multiple forcing mechanisms. It is possible that extreme event analysis in a univariate context may underestimate the probabilities and impacts of extreme events. In this study, a framework addresses multivariate analysis of risk due to compound hazards related to tropical cyclone characteristics. Combinations of observations and simulations are used to identify possible frequencies of annual chance extreme events forced via connected individual events. The framework emphasizes the statistical dependence of multiple physical variables that contribute to extreme compound events when individual events are not extreme.To make the analysis clear, specific locations are analyzed using both univariate and a joint analysis. The joint analysis is conducted using copula functions to remove the restriction that marginal distributions need come from the same family of probability functions. The primary results suggest that univariate and joint return periods for key tropical cyclone-related hazards could shorten in the future and univariate frequency analysis may underestimate the magnitude of the extreme events because the univariate analyses do not account for the dependence structure between the paired environmental factors.

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Stetter, Chris, Jan-Hendrik Piel, André Koukal et Michael H. Breitner. « Enhancing Strategic Bidding Optimization for Renewable Energy Auctions : A Risk-Adequate Marginal Cost Model ». Dans Operations Research Proceedings, 217–23. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-18500-8_28.

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Huang, Pei-Hua. « Uncertainty, Vaccination, and the Duties of Liberal States ». Dans Philosophy of Engineering and Technology, 97–110. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-08424-9_5.

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AbstractIt is widely accepted that a liberal state has a general duty to protect its people from undue health risks. However, the unprecedented emergent measures against the COVID-19 pandemic taken by governments worldwide give rise to questions regarding the extent to which this duty may be used to justify suspending a vaccine rollout on marginal safety grounds. In this chapter, I use the case of vaccination to argue that while a liberal state has a general duty to protect its people’s health, there is a limit to the measures this duty can be used to justify. First, I argue that since every available option involves different risks and benefits, the incommensurability of the involved risks and benefits forbids the prioritisation of a particular vaccine. Second, I argue that given epistemic limitations and uncertainty, policies that favour certain vaccines are not only epistemically ill-founded but also morally unacceptable. I conclude that in a highly uncertain situation such as the unfolding pandemic, the duty a liberal state ought to uphold is to properly communicate the knowns and unknowns to the general public and help people decide which option to choose for themselves. I call this duty the duty to facilitate risk-taking.

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Salgaonkar, Hrishikesh, Alistair Sharples, Kanagaraj Marimuthu, Vittal Rao et Nagammapudur Balaji. « One Anastomosis Gastric Bypass (OAGB) ». Dans Mastering Endo-Laparoscopic and Thoracoscopic Surgery, 297–304. Singapore : Springer Nature Singapore, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-3755-2_43.

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AbstractOne-anastomosis gastric bypass is an attractive option in the armament of a Bariatric surgeon. A relatively simple procedure, it has been effective in inducing weight loss and resolution of obesity-associated comorbidities. Easy technique, shorter operative times, and low complication rates make it an attractive alternative option, particularly in super-obese individuals. While concerns remain regarding the long-term safety profile with regards to biliary reflux, risk of esophagogastric malignancies, and marginal ulcer. For the scope of this chapter, our focus will be on the advent of the concept, the surgical technique, and tips and tricks.

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Hagihara, Kiyoko, Chisato Asahi et Yoshimi Hagihara. « Marginal Willingness to Pay for Public Investment Under Urban Environmental Risk : The Case of Municipal Water Use ». Dans New Frontiers in Regional Science : Asian Perspectives, 133–50. Tokyo : Springer Japan, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55169-0_8.

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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Marginal risk"

Wu, Liyu, Minyu Shen et Ruijie Li. « A Marginal Utility Day-to-day Flow Dynamics for Boundedly Rational User Equilibrium ». Dans Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Reliability Engineering and Risk Management. Singapore : Research Publishing Services, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.3850/978-981-11-2726-7_cmta02.

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Stripling, Travis E., et Jochen Schneider. « Pipeline Project Implementation and Management Risk Analysis ». Dans 2002 4th International Pipeline Conference. ASMEDC, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2002-27051.

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There currently exist documented project implementation risk analysis and management processes that can be applied to pipeline projects [1]. The more macro type methodology of Reference [1] can be combined with the more detailed analysis presented in this paper to achieve better management of project cost and schedule, and presents an opportunity for the pipeline industry to reduce overall project cost and schedule overruns. Given the significant number of very large, prospective pipeline projects in the world today, many with challenging economic viabilities, effective risk analysis and management may very well make the marginal difference if a particular project proceeds or not.

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Syed Abd Rahim, Syarifah Puteh Mariah, Mohd Fairuz Azman, Zaidi Awang@Mohamed et Mior Yusni Ahmad. « Defining the Optimum Well Completion for Marginal Field Development – An Approach ». Dans Offshore Technology Conference Asia. OTC, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4043/31552-ms.

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Abstract Marginal field development commonly face setback when it comes to an investment decision, which makes it technically and commercially very challenging to be developed. Technologies that usually applied in big fields may not be economically relevant to the marginal fields, despite require the same assurance and functionality. Well completion cost itself can take up to 50% of the total well cost, especially for fields that potentially must deal with sand production, high CO2 and/or H2S content, artificial lift, and multilayer zonal completion and isolation. This paper demonstrates an integrated approach to identify and define the optimum well completion strategy for such conditions in a Malaysian oilfield. The first step is to list all the operational issues and challenges of producing from the neighboring fault block and other analogue fields experience. Leveraging on the available data and types of completion that have been installed, a set of scoring is given to different completion type, considering the sand production control effectiveness, good well performance, and long well life span. The shortlisted completion types were further evaluated based on the following criteria: Production flexibility Early monetization Operation complexity (drilling and completion) Sand production management Sand control failure probability Associated Risks Stand-alone economic As a result, eight (8) completion strategies were investigated namely Monobore, Monobore wih resin, Cased & Perf, Cased & Perf with resin, Open Hole Stand Alone Screen (OHSAS), Cased-Hole Stand Alone Screen (CHSAS), Cased-Hole Gravel Pack (CHGP); using circulating method or frac pack. Different completion has its own advantages and disadvantages. Structured scoring system was again applied to guide the decision-making process. The key elements in the decision thought process are the associated cost of each option, the skin factor that affect the production and reserve estimation, and ultimately the Net Present Value (NPV) indicator. In conclusion, identifying the optimum well completion will never give a single solution answer. However, the most important thing is to consider all the decisive factors and properly evaluate all options. In our own real example, the option that gives the best NPV coupled with tolerable risk (HSE risk i.e. less issue at surface) was selected as the optimum well completion strategy to be used in the development plan.

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Khalid, Aizuddin, Norashikin Hamza, Mas Rizal A Rahim, Amir Ridzwan A Rahman, Thanavathy Patma Nesan et Norhayati M Sahid. « Application of Key Deepwater Lessons Learned in Marginal Deepwater Development, Offshore Malaysia ». Dans SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition. SPE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/210393-ms.

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Abstract L & B fields offshore Sabah, Malaysia will be the next deepwater development in Malaysia after Kikeh, Siakap North-Petai, Gumusut-Kakap & Malikai. However, in comparison, L & B are considered marginal in terms of recoverable volumes and size of project, making it crucial to design and execute the project sharply to ensure value delivery. 5 key deepwater lessons learned areas are discussed in this paper as applied to L & B Field Development Plan (FDP) to ensure technical robustness based on experience of surrounding deepwater fields. The first key area is subsea production stability and flow assurance. Among critical evaluations conducted were techno-commercial comparison of dual-loop pipe-in-pipe against heated pipe-in-pipe, upfront artificial lift plans, and water injectors design to avoid hydrates formation as observed in another field. The second critical area is in drilling where key lessons were to conduct thorough geohazard analysis for hazard identification and avoid wellhead subsidence. Thorough geomechanics and fracture gradient were also assessed to identify requirements for managed-pressure drilling and for backup designs. The third key area is well integrity, productivity and injectivity where sand production and fines migration risks need to be addressed through well completion strategy. The reservoir management plan must also reflect realistic production and injection plans and data crucial for monitoring. The fourth key issue is with regards to subsurface complexity in deepwater turbidite environment with risks to production attainability vis-à-vis reservoir connectivity and compartmentalization issues. A no-stones-unturned approach was taken integrating available static and dynamic data to estimate a robust recoverable volume. The fifth critical area is well startup and unloading procedures, which is important for well productivity. Model iterations were needed to conduct methodical well bean-up to eliminate risk of fines movement. Application of lessons learned in these 5 key areas led to robust development plans with mitigations for risks common to deepwater developments offshore north Borneo. For flow assurance strategy, the evaluation led to dual-loop design, proactive artificial lift strategy and optimum water injector locations. Drilling requirements are identified for MPD and backup slim-hole designs. To ensure productivity and injectivity, long highly deviated wells, with downhole sand mitigations, are designed for maximum contact and reduced required drawdown. Skin factors were applied in subsurface modeling as observed in other fields to risk the production targets. The model was also calibrated with dynamic data gained from well tests and pressure points to provide realistic production estimates, with a well sequence plan to observe actual performance and optimize next well locations if necessary. For well startup procedures, model iterations guided by analogue fields’ experiences led to optimum startup designs for L & B. These 5 key lessons learned areas are critical in deepwater development plans to ensure technical robustness during development stage to protect high investment value.

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Fowlow, D. Chad. « Wellhead Protection Concepts for Subsea Marginal Developments – Grand Banks of Newfoundland ». Dans SNAME 7th International Conference and Exhibition on Performance of Ships and Structures in Ice. SNAME, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.5957/icetech-2006-128.

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A study has been undertaken to enable evaluation of wellhead protection concepts for subsea marginal developments located on the Grand Banks (Newfoundland, Canada). The study has focused mainly on concepts that maintain the probability of well blowout as a result of freely floating and scouring icebergs below accepted levels of risk. The investigation provides a framework from which intelligent decisions can be made regarding the relative benefits and costs of different protection concepts.

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Bestman, Somiari, Bandar I. I. Ghassal, Ahmed Attar et Akim Kabir. « Integrating PVT, Stable Isotope and Biomarker Geochemistry and Pressure Data to Characterise the Continuity of a Geologically Complex Gas Condensate Reservoir ». Dans International Petroleum Technology Conference. IPTC, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2523/iptc-21428-ms.

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Abstract Characterizing reservoir continuity is a critical part of the field appraisal and delineation process and it carries an inherent risk for all stakeholders as well as significant implications for field development planning. The risk becomes even more substantial when planning the development of a geologically complex marginal field. Uncertainty and risk analyses are carried out in order to assess the potential impact of various parameters including geological uncertainties. However, the efficacy of the uncertainty and risk analyses processes are dictated by the quality and quantity of the available data. Thorough and extensive data collection and analysis, incorporating channels such as insitu reservoir fluid sampling, reservoir fluid characterization, molecular geochemistry, stable isotope geochemistry as well as pressure data will improve the outcomes of the uncertainty and risk analyses while minimizing reservoir continuity mischaracterization risks.

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Mubarok, Rudi Syahru, Monica Andriana et Albertino Prabowo. « SNB AOI Topside Design Optimization : Solution for Marginal Resources ». Dans SPE/IATMI Asia Pacific Oil & Gas Conference and Exhibition. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/205554-ms.

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Abstract Sisi Nubi Area of Interest (SNB AOI) is an ongoing project to develop the marginal resources located in Sisi Nubi offshore field operated by Pertamina Hulu Mahakam (PHM). As the resources being developed are small and scattered, low cost solution platform design is required to develop these marginal resources. Therefore, design optimization is a must. Fit-for-purpose design concept is used as the basis to develop process and safety facilities in new SNB AOI platforms while maintaining the compliance with government regulations and international codes and standards. Various exercises were performed in order to ensure optimized process, safety and operating philosophy requirement. Lesson learnt and benchmarking from various established platforms design including PHM's minimalist offshore/swamp platform were performed. The previous designs are reviewed, adopted and SNB AOI platform design is adjusted as per operating philosophy requirement. Based on the available basis of design and operating parameters, fully rated topside facilities design is considered feasible to be applied for new SNB AOI platforms. With this design, relief system size (i.e. vent stack and vent knock-out drum) can be further optimized. In addition, closed drain drum and LP (low pressure) vent knock-out drum is also combined in one single vessel after careful safety verification. Other optimization is externalizing equipment that could be managed with Operating Expenditure (e.g. well offloading activity by using external facility). As for process safety design, preliminary reviews based on international codes and standards showed that the following designs are considered feasible: portable Gas Detector by operator during platform visit (in lieu of permanent Gas Detection system), Fusible Plug loop installation only (instead of redundant protection using Flame Detector system), non-provision of dry fire water mains, application of Passive Fire Protection (PFP) only after confirmation from fire risk study (risk-based approach), and considering not permanently manned installation, 1 (one) stair & 1 (one) ladder combination on each platform deck (instead of dual stairs). Overall, the proposed design maintains the safety of installation with minimum impacts to future platform operation. This optimization has contributed to reduction of dimension and weight of topside installation (i.e. 32% less compared to PHM's latest Offshore Minimalist Platform design) and also weight of the structure. Design of SNB AOI project could become a good reference for other Pertamina affiliate and other companies and could open a further way forward to economically develop the "marginal resources", especially in offshore area, by implementing the "fit for purpose" design concept.

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Perrett, T. L., et I. M. Garven. « Blackback Field Development - An Example of Technical and Commercial Risk Mitigation in a Deepwater Marginal Field ». Dans SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition. Society of Petroleum Engineers, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/50070-ms.

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Gregorio Mamani, Mauricio, Mario Bernabe Chauca, Edward Filomeno Huamani et Susy Del Pilar Sipan. « Retrospective Analysis of Multidrug-resistant Pulmonary Tuberculosis Associated with Risk Factors in a Marginal Urban District ». Dans ICMHI 2021 : 2021 5th International Conference on Medical and Health Informatics. New York, NY, USA : ACM, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3472813.3473199.

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Skjong, Rolf, et Elzbieta M. Bitner-Gregersen. « Cost Effectiveness of Hull Girder Safety ». Dans ASME 2002 21st International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2002-28494.

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The paper presents a cost effectiveness assessment of the safety in a design code for oil tankers. The marginal cost to safety improvements is based on code calibration studies for different target reliabilities. This allows basing the actual target reliability indices on risk acceptance criteria derived from cost effectiveness of the marginal change in scantling requirements. This approach is in agreement with the criteria defined in IMO submissions and used in the ongoing IMO coordinated Formal Safety Assessment studies on bulk carriers. The documentation that cost effectiveness criteria may be applied has previously been submitted to IMO. It is concluded that the method works quite well in the examples that are presented, and that the current codes are in close agreement with decision criteria used for other risk control options. As probabilities calculated by structural reliability methods are notional, it is also advantageous to use marginal costs to safety improvement instead of absolute numbers of probabilities as acceptance criterion. It is indicated that a cost effectiveness criterion may replace the current practice of basing target reliabilities on calibration against previous best practices. Although the basic safety philosophy is changed radically, the study does not indicate that the change in criteria would result in much change in design. The advantage of using the suggested approach is the consistency with ongoing FSA development at IMO.

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Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Marginal risk"

Flood, Robert, et Andrew Rose. Estimating the Expected Marginal Rate of Substitution : Exploiting Idiosyncratic Risk. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, octobre 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w10805.

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Almond, Douglas, Joseph Doyle, Amanda Kowalski et Heidi Williams. Estimating Marginal Returns to Medical Care : Evidence from At-Risk Newborns. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, décembre 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w14522.

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Bishop, Kelly, Nicolai Kuminoff, Sophie Mathes et Alvin Murphy. The Marginal Cost of Mortality Risk Reduction : Evidence from Housing Markets. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, décembre 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w29622.

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Kindermann, Fabian, et Dirk Krueger. High Marginal Tax Rates on the Top 1% ? Lessons from a Life Cycle Model with Idiosyncratic Income Risk. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, octobre 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w20601.

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Arteaga, Felipe, Gregory Elacqua, Thomas Krussig, Carolina Méndez et Christopher Neilson. Can Information on School Attributes and Placement Probabilities Direct Search and Choice ? Evidence from Choice Platforms in Ecuador and Peru. Inter-American Development Bank, novembre 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004672.

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This paper evaluates how new information influences families applica- tions and assignment outcomes in elementary school choice settings. Specifi- cally, using a multi-country RCT based in Tacna, Peru and Manta, Ecuador, we examine the effect of providing personalized information on schooling alternatives and placement risk. We find that applicants who received feed- back on placement risk and a suggestion of new schools add more schools to their applications and were more likely to include recommended schools than other alternatives available. Interestingly, the project implemented in Manta, Ecuador had only marginal effects for all outcomes. The main differ- ence across implementations was the inclusion of outreach and information provision through an additional WhatsApp “warning” in Peru, which was not realized in Ecuador. A lower school density seems to have also been a contributing factor to the results observed in the Ecuadorian context.

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Bruce, Judith, et Shelley Clark. Including married adolescents in adolescent reproductive health and HIV/AIDS policy. Population Council, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.31899/pgy22.1002.

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The majority of sexually active girls aged 15–19 in developing countries are married, and married adolescent girls tend to have higher rates of HIV infection than their sexually active, unmarried peers. Married adolescent girls represent a sizable fraction of adolescents at risk and experience some of the highest rates of HIV prevalence of any group. Nonetheless, married adolescents have been marginal in adolescent HIV/AIDS policies and programs and have not been the central subjects for programs aimed at adult married women. This paper offers a partial explanation for why married adolescents have so often been overlooked, the reasons why marriage might bring elevated risk of HIV, initial analytic tools to assist policymakers in determining how to accord appropriate levels of priority to the marriage process, five brief case studies, and a menu of potential policy interventions and actions to make married adolescents an integral part of reproductive health and HIV-prevention initiatives.

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Nadal-Caraballo, Norberto, Madison Yawn, Luke Aucoin, Meredith Carr, Jeffrey Melby, Efrain Ramos-Santiago, Fabian Garcia-Moreno et al. Coastal Hazards System–Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands (CHS-PR). Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), décembre 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/46200.

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The South Atlantic Coastal Study (SACS) was completed by the US Army Corps of Engineers to quantify storm surge and wave hazards allowing for the expansion of the Coastal Hazards System (CHS) to the South Atlantic Division (SAD) domain. The goal of the CHS-SACS was to quantify coastal storm hazards for present conditions and future sea level rise (SLR) scenarios to aid in reducing flooding risk and increasing resiliency in coastal environments. CHS-SACS was completed for three regions within the SAD domain, and this report focuses on the Coastal Hazards System–Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands (CHS-PR). This study applied the CHS Probabilistic Coastal Hazard Analysis (PCHA) framework for quantifying tropical cyclone (TC) responses, leveraging new atmospheric and hydrodynamic numerical model simulations of synthetic TCs developed explicitly for the CHS-PR region. This report focuses on documenting the PCHA conducted for CHS-PR, including the characterization of storm climate, storm sampling, storm recurrence rate estimation, marginal distributions, correlation and dependence structure of TC atmospheric-forcing parameters, development of augmented storm suites, and assignment of discrete storm weights to the synthetic TCs. As part of CHS-PR, coastal hazards were estimated for annual exceedance frequencies over the range of 10 yr⁻¹ to 10⁻⁴ yr⁻¹.

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Zhang, Hongbin, Ronaldo H. Szilard, Stephen Hess et Rosemary Sugrue. A Strategic Approach to Employ Risk-Informed Methods to Enable Margin Recovery of Nuclear Power Plants Operating Margins. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), septembre 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1514992.

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Nadal-Caraballo, Norberto C., Madison C. Yawn, Luke A. Aucoin, Meredith L. Carr, Jeffrey A. Melby, Efrain Ramos-Santiago, Victor M. Gonzalez et al. Coastal Hazards System–Louisiana (CHS-LA). US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, août 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/45286.

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The US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory (CHL) expanded the Coastal Hazards System (CHS) to quantify storm surge and wave hazards for coastal Louisiana. The CHS Louisiana (CHS-LA) coastal study was sponsored by the Louisiana Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) and the New Orleans District (MVN), US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to support Louisiana’s critical coastal infrastructure and to ensure the effectiveness of coastal storm risk management projects. The CHS-LA applied the CHS Probabilistic Coastal Hazard Analysis (PCHA) framework to quantify tropical cyclone (TC) responses, leveraging new atmospheric and hydrodynamic numerical model simulations of synthetic TCs developed explicitly for the Louisiana region. This report focuses on documenting the PCHA conducted for the CHS-LA, including details related to the characterization of storm climate, storm sampling, storm recurrence rate estimation, marginal distributions, correlation and dependence structure of TC atmospheric-forcing parameters, development of augmented storm suites, and assignment of discrete storm weights to the synthetic TCs. As part of CHS-LA, coastal hazards were estimated within the study area for annual exceedance frequencies (AEFs) over the range of 10 yr-1 to 1×10-4 yr-1.

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Smith, Curtis L., Zhegang Ma, Tom Riley, Diego Mandelli, Joseph W. Nielsen, Andrea Alfonsi et Cristian Rabiti. Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Methods Development Work. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), septembre 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1169248.

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