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Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Macroeconomics – Models »

Auteur : Grafiati
Publié le 10 mars 2023

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Macroeconomics – Models"

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Talavyrya, М., et B. Dorosh. « Development of macroeconomic models based on behavioral economics : issues and further research ». Zemleustrìj, kadastr ì monìtorìng zemelʹ, no 4 (27 octobre 2021) : 2. http://dx.doi.org/10.31548/zemleustriy2021.04.02.

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The article analyzes the formation, spread and development of behavioral economics in microeconomic research, as well as its development in macroeconomic research over the past two decades. The key shortcomings of neoclassical macroeconomic models and their critique based on existing research and practical application by central bankers are highlighted. The key stages in the formation of behavioral macroeconomics, elements of which began to appear in the works of neoclassical macroeconomists, have been identified. The main arguments in favor of replacing neoclassical macroeconomic models with new behavioral macroeconomic models are presented, as well as key issues of behavioral macroeconomics and prospects for its further adoption as a basic concept for decision-making for governments. Key studies of behavioral economists on behavioral macroeconomic models, most of which are agents-based (microfoundations-based), have been identified and systematized. Based on the results of testing various behavioral models by world-renowned scientists, as well as our analysis, it is proposed to focus further macroeconomic research on behavioral models based on the activities of agents (microfoundations).
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Moiseev, S. « The Formalization of Macroeconomics and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy ». Voprosy Ekonomiki, no 2 (20 février 2007) : 46–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2007-2-46-58.

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While early macroeconomists were engineers trying to solve practical problems, modern macroeconomists have focused on developing mathematic tools and establishing models. These analytic instruments, however, have been slow to find their way into practical applications. This paper reviews the influence of modern macroeconomics on realities of monetary policy. The author concludes that the effect of formalization of macroeconomic theory on central banking is close to zero.
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Fair, Ray C. « Trade models and macroeconomics ». Economic Modelling 94 (janvier 2021) : 296–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.10.007.

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Saes, Beatriz Macchione, et Ademar Ribeiro Romeiro. « Ecological macroeconomics : a methodological review ». Economia e Sociedade 28, no 2 (août 2019) : 365–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1982-3533.2019v28n2art04.

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Abstract The paper aims to analyse and provide an overview of the emerging ecological macroeconomic approach from a methodological point of view. As with ecological economics, this emerging approach is being constituted by a methodologically plural set of studies. We identify and classify three main macroeconomic strands developed from ecological economic concerns. Firstly, we present the conventional macroeconomic IS-LM model adapted to a sustainable scale of production. Secondly, we discuss a fundamentalist post-Keynesian view on ecological economics that criticises the use of models more heavily. Finally, we describe the attempts to build ecological macroeconomic models based on the post-Keynesian approach. For each model, theories, methods, and assumptions are discussed and evaluated in light of ecological economic foundations. We conclude by reinforcing the role of methodological criticism in the consolidation of relevant ecological macroeconomics.
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Praščević, Aleksandra. « Macroeconomics and political misuse : Interpreting economic policy ». Revija Kopaonicke skole prirodnog prava 3, no 2 (2021) : 171–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/rkspp2102171p.

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The paper focuses the impact of political abuse of economic policy on macroeconomic results, as well as the macroeconomic models that investigate this impact. The paper also presents the development of modern macroeconomics, along with main changes in the way of creating economic policy. Two key political motives - opportunistic (to stay in power as long as possible) and partisan - to achieve ideological goals in the field of economics, are considered in the context of traditional models that assume naive voters and adaptive expectations, but also in the context of rational models that include rational voters and expectations. The paper also gives certain recommendations for overcoming the politically motivated behavior of economic policymakers.
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Fisher, P. G., S. K. Tanna, D. S. Turner, K. F. Wallis et J. D. Whitley. « Comparative Properties of Models of the Uk Economy ». National Institute Economic Review 125 (août 1988) : 69–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795018812500107.

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This paper describes the overall properties of six major macroeconomic models, through dynamic multiplier analysis of a number of standard simulation exercises. The models are those of the London Business School (LBS), the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), HM Treasury (HMT), the Bank of England (BE), the City University Business School (CUBS) and the Liverpool University Research Group in Macroeconomics (LPL), as deposited with the ESRC Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau in late 1987. The simulations demonstrate the response of the models to changes in key policy instruments and to exogenous shocks; they are conducted, as far as possible, in a consistent manner across the models.
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Olesen, Finn. « Macroeconomics – developments and modern trends ». Journal of Behavioural Economics and Social Systems 4, no 1 (29 mai 2022) : 64–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.54337/ojs.bess.v4i1.7296.

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Ever since the publication of Keynes’ The General Theory in 1936, both the theoretical and methodological content of macroeconomics, and the role of economic policy, have seen continued change. In contemporary times, macroeconomics is dominated by the New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) and the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. However, since the Great Recession, the modern mainstream has been increasingly exposed to criticism from various alternatives of a more heterodox nature. The aims of this article are threefold. First, to give a selected presentation on the development of modern macroeconomics. Second, to address why and how the NNS has become the dominant (and, for most mainstreamers, the only) way of analysing macroeconomic phenomena. Third, to present two alternatives to the mainstream that might challenge the future dominance of this thinking.
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Achdou, Yves, Francisco J. Buera, Jean-Michel Lasry, Pierre-Louis Lions et Benjamin Moll. « Partial differential equation models in macroeconomics ». Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A : Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 372, no 2028 (13 novembre 2014) : 20130397. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0397.

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The purpose of this article is to get mathematicians interested in studying a number of partial differential equations (PDEs) that naturally arise in macroeconomics. These PDEs come from models designed to study some of the most important questions in economics. At the same time, they are highly interesting for mathematicians because their structure is often quite difficult. We present a number of examples of such PDEs, discuss what is known about their properties, and list some open questions for future research.
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ROSEN, RICHARD A. « IS THE IPCC’s 5TH ASSESSMENT A DENIER OF POSSIBLE MACROECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE ? » Climate Change Economics 07, no 01 (février 2016) : 1640003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007816400030.

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This review summarizes what we know about the macroeconomics of mitigating climate change over the period 2010 to 2100 as presented in the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report. The review finds that little more, if anything, has been learned about the macroeconomics of mitigating climate change over the long run since the 2007 IPCC report. Furthermore, while the 2014 report is quite self-critical about the serious weaknesses in its methodologies, the self-criticisms are not explicitly taken into account when the net macroeconomic costs of mitigation are reported. Nor do the research teams that run the integrated assessment models relied on in the report utilize any systematic methodology for assessing the inherent uncertainty in the macroeconomic results reported. Thus, the basic quantitative “findings” are misleading — and, perhaps, even deceptive — in part because they appear to preclude the possibility of large macroeconomic benefits from mitigating climate change.
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Aoki, Masanao, et Hiroshi Yoshikawa. « Non-self-averaging in macroeconomic models : a criticism of modern micro-founded macroeconomics ». Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination 7, no 1 (26 janvier 2012) : 1–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11403-012-0088-3.

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Thèses sur le sujet "Macroeconomics – Models"

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Silvestre, Joao Alexandre Parreira. « Agent-Based models in macroeconomics ». Doctoral thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20604.

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Doutoramento em Economia
A crise financeira de 2007/2008 desencadeou uma onda de críticas à teoria económica. Ataques baseados em quatro críticas principais: os economistas não terem previsto a maior crise desde a Grande Depressão; as autoridades deixarem formar bolhas sem controlo; o falhanço da supervisão bancária; e os modelos usados serem desfasados da realidade. No caso dos modelos, o alvo principal são os modelos DSGE (dinâmicos, estocásticos e de equilíbrio geral) e duas das suas hipóteses simplificadoras: o agente representativo e a racionalidade. As economias são realidades complexas, não-lineares e heterogéneas, e o recurso a métodos computacionais pode ser uma alternativa para ultrapassar as limitações dos modelos tradicionais. O objectivo desta tese é alargar a aplicação dos modelos de agentes em Macroeconomia com três exemplos distintos. O primeiro é um modelo de crescimento endógeno, de gerações sobrepostas, em que a decisão dos agentes sobre estudar é baseada na satisfação e na influência dos seus pares. É usado para testar os efeitos de longo prazo do paradoxo de Easterlin, que sugere que a satisfação e o rendimento não têm uma relação linear. Verifica-se que, no cenário de Easterlin, o crescimento é menor do que no cenário base onde os agentes atribuem igual importância ao rendimento absoluto e relativo. O segundo modelo visa avaliar o contágio dos defaults da dívida pública e a forma como as estratégias dos governos afetam o seu aparecimento e propagação. As simulações mostram que os países mais gastadores e com menor aversão ao risco tendem a entrar mais vezes em default e que políticas monetárias muito expansionistas podem originar fenómenos de risco moral. No terceiro modelo, estudamos o fenómeno da ‘fuga de cérebros’ e as consequências no crescimento económico. Concluímos que o efeito positivo do brain drain na acumulação de capital humano depende fortemente da probabilidade de emigrar.
The 2007/2008 financial crisis triggered a wave of criticism of the economic theory. These attacks are based in four main critics: economists had not foreseen the biggest crisis since the Great Depression; authorities let bubbles form without control; weak banking supervision; and the models used in macroeconomic policy being out of touch with reality. In the particular case of the macroeconomic models, the target are the DSGE models (dynamic, stochastic and general equilibrium) and their two simplifying hypotheses: the representative agent and rationality. Economies are complex realities, with nonlinearities and heterogeneities, and computational economics can be an advantageous alternative to overcome the shortcomings of the traditional models. The aim of this thesis is to extend the application of agent-based models to macroeconomic topics in three distinct models. The first one is an endogenous growth model, in an overlapping generations environment, in which the agents' individual decision to study is based on the satisfaction of their peers. It is used to evaluate the long-term effects of the Easterlin paradox, which states that satisfaction and income have a non-linear relation. The second model is used to study sovereign default contagion in order to assess how different government strategies affect default and propagation across countries. Simulations showed that high spending and low risk aversion levels are associated to a high prevalence of default and that monetary stimulus can create moral hazard problems. In the third model, we study the brain drain phenomenon and its economic growth effects. We conclude that beneficial brain hypothesis depend heavily on emigration probability.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Dmitriev, Mikhail. « Essays in International Macroeconomics ». Thesis, Boston College, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:103536.

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Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi
Thesis advisor: Susanto Basu
My dissertation develops a set of tools for thinking about heterogeneity in economic models in an analytically tractable way. Many models use the representative agent framework, which greatly simplifies macroeconomic aggregation but abstracts from the heterogeneity we see in the real world. Models with heterogeneity in general equilibrium have too many moving parts, so that it is hard to disentangle cause and effect. First, my work in international macroeconomics incorporates heterogeneity via idiosyncratic shocks across countries in a simple and analytical way. Second, my work on financial frictions helps to understand the role of asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers in different contractual environments. Crucially, these insights can be incorporated into the models currently used by academics and central banks for policy analysis
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2014
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
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Steinbach, Max Rudibert. « Essays on dynamic macroeconomics ». Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/86196.

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Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the first essay of this thesis, a medium scale DSGE model is developed and estimated for the South African economy. When used for forecasting, the model is found to outperform private sector economists when forecasting CPI inflation, GDP growth and the policy rate over certain horizons. In the second essay, the benchmark DSGE model is extended to include the yield on South African 10-year government bonds. The model is then used to decompose the 10-year yield spread into (1) the structural shocks that contributed to its evolution during the inflation targeting regime of the South African Reserve Bank, as well as (2) an expected yield and a term premium. In addition, it is found that changes in the South African term premium may predict future real economic activity. Finally, the need for DSGE models to take account of financial frictions became apparent during the recent global financial crisis. As a result, the final essay incorporates a stylised banking sector into the benchmark DSGE model described above. The optimal response of the South African Reserve Bank to financial shocks is then analysed within the context of this structural model.
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De, Antonio Liedo David. « Structural models for macroeconomics and forecasting ». Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210142.

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This Thesis is composed by three independent papers that investigate

central debates in empirical macroeconomic modeling.

Chapter 1, entitled “A Model for Real-Time Data Assessment with an Application to GDP Growth Rates”, provides a model for the data

revisions of macroeconomic variables that distinguishes between rational expectation updates and noise corrections. Thus, the model encompasses the two polar views regarding the publication process of statistical agencies: noise versus news. Most of the studies previous studies that analyze data revisions are based

on the classical noise and news regression approach introduced by Mankiew, Runkle and Shapiro (1984). The problem is that the statistical tests available do not formulate both extreme hypotheses as collectively exhaustive, as recognized by Aruoba (2008). That is, it would be possible to reject or accept both of them simultaneously. In turn, the model for the

DPP presented here allows for the simultaneous presence of both noise and news. While the “regression approach” followed by Faust et al. (2005), along the lines of Mankiew et al. (1984), identifies noise in the preliminary

figures, it is not possible for them to quantify it, as done by our model.

The second and third chapters acknowledge the possibility that macroeconomic data is measured with errors, but the approach followed to model the missmeasurement is extremely stylized and does not capture the complexity of the revision process that we describe in the first chapter.

Chapter 2, entitled “Revisiting the Success of the RBC model”, proposes the use of dynamic factor models as an alternative to the VAR based tools for the empirical validation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) theories. Along the lines of Giannone et al. (2006), we use the state-space parameterisation of the factor models proposed by Forni et al. (2007) as a competitive benchmark that is able to capture weak statistical restrictions that DSGE models impose on the data. Our empirical illustration compares the out-of-sample forecasting performance of a simple RBC model augmented with a serially correlated noise component against several specifications belonging to classes of dynamic factor and VAR models. Although the performance of the RBC model is comparable

to that of the reduced form models, a formal test of predictive accuracy reveals that the weak restrictions are more useful at forecasting than the strong behavioral assumptions imposed by the microfoundations in the model economy.

The last chapter, “What are Shocks Capturing in DSGE modeling”, contributes to current debates on the use and interpretation of larger DSGE

models. Recent tendency in academic work and at central banks is to develop and estimate large DSGE models for policy analysis and forecasting. These models typically have many shocks (e.g. Smets and Wouters, 2003 and Adolfson, Laseen, Linde and Villani, 2005). On the other hand, empirical studies point out that few large shocks are sufficient to capture the covariance structure of macro data (Giannone, Reichlin and

Sala, 2005, Uhlig, 2004). In this Chapter, we propose to reconcile both views by considering an alternative DSGE estimation approach which

models explicitly the statistical agency along the lines of Sargent (1989). This enables us to distinguish whether the exogenous shocks in DSGE

modeling are structural or instead serve the purpose of fitting the data in presence of misspecification and measurement problems. When applied to the original Smets and Wouters (2007) model, we find that the explanatory power of the structural shocks decreases at high frequencies. This allows us to back out a smoother measure of the natural output gap than that

resulting from the original specification.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

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Silva, Thiago Cordeiro da. « Exploiting diversity in macroeconomic modeling : a comparative study between Agent-Based and DSGE macroeconomic models / ». Araraquara, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11449/180819.

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Orientador: Mario Augusto Bertella
Banca: Alexandre Sartoris Neto
Banca: Roseli da Silva
Resumo: A modelagem macroeconômica tem estado sob intenso escrutínio desde a Crise Financeira de 2007-2008, quando graves deficiências foram expostas na metodologia DSGE. Embora muitas dessas críticas tenham sido injustas ou desinformadas, elas enfatizaram a necessidade de considerar formas alternativas de modelagem macroeconômica e aprimorar abordagens estabelecidas, a fim de torná-las mais úteis para a compreensão de um mundo em recessão. Nesse sentido, argumentamos que explorar a diversidade na modelagem macroeconômica pode beneficiar a profissão e produzir resultados importantes em relação à formulação de políticas macroeconômicas. Uma maneira de explorar a diversidade na macroeconomia é investigar sistematicamente tanto os modelos DSGE quanto os modelos baseados em agentes, revelando suas forças e limitações relativas, e combinando essas duas abordagens diferentes, a fim de que possamos aprender uma com a outra e talvez produzir um modelo híbrido. Este trabalho dá o primeiro passo rumo a esse desafio. Acreditamos que uma abordagem interdisciplinar pode ajudar não só toda a agenda da pesquisa macroeconômica, mas também beneficiar a sociedade como um todo, permitindo a implementação de medidas políticas mais eficazes e aumentando a capacidade dos economistas em modelar a heterogeneidade social em um mundo complexo e em constante evolução.
Abstract: Macroeconomic modelling has been under intense scrutiny since the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, when serious shortcomings were exposed in the DSGE methodology. Although many of these criticisms were unfair or uninformed, they did highlight the need of considering alternative forms of macroeconomic modelling and enhancing established approaches in order to make them more useful for understanding a world in recession. In this sense, we argue that exploiting diversity in macroeconomic modelling can benefit the profession and yield more fruitful developments regarding the formulation of macroeconomic policy. One way of exploring diversity in macroeconomics is by investigating systematically both the DSGE and the Agent-Based models, revealing their relative strengths and limitations, and combining these two different approaches, so that we can explore what one can learn from the other and perhaps yield a hybrid model. This work takes the first step towards this ultimate achievement. We believe that an interdisciplinary approach may help not only the entire macroeconomic research agenda, but also benefit society as a whole, allowing the implementation of more effective policy measures and by increasing the ability of economists to model social heterogeneity in a complex-evolving world.
Mestre
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Rua, Sandra Cristina Camacho Gomes. « Essays in macroeconomics with general equilibrium models ». Doctoral thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/7543.

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Doutoramento em Economia
Modelos de equilíbrio geral são largamente usados na academia e em instituições internacionais. Aqui, questões relacionadas com reformas estruturais, o limite inferior das taxas de juro e sua relação com opções de política são analisadas com um modelo de larga escala. Os principais resultados são: reformas estruturais unilaterais são benéficas e coordenação nacional tem vantagens; com as taxas de juro no limite inferior, políticas orçamentais e estruturais podem aliviar uma recessão e reduzir o tempo em que esse limite é activo. Mas a eficácia depende do instrumento orçamental e das características das reformas. Seguidamente, modelos estimados de media-escala são usados para avaliar a importância de choques antecipados nos EUA. Primeiro, avalia-se o papel destes choques na dinâmica do mercado habitacional e conclui-se que são importantes nas flutuações deste mercado e em particular nos ciclos de boom-bust. Expectativas de inquéritos sao usadas como validação externa do modelo. Depois, o papel de choques antecipados de politica monetária e analisado num modelo de ciclo económico. Conclui-se que melhoram a desempenho do modelo sem causar problemas de identificação; explicam uma percentagem maior das flutuações das variáveis observadas que choques não antecipados de politica monetária; e ajudam a melhor replicar covariâncias de algumas variáveis.
General equilibrium models are widely used in academia and policy institutions. Here, issues related to structural reforms, the zero lower bound and its interaction with policy options are analysed with a large-scale calibrated model of the euro area. The main find- ings are: unilateral structural reforms are beneficial and cross-country coordination has advantages; at the zero bound, fiscal and structural policies can alleviate a recession and reduce the time spent at the bound but their effectiveness depends on the fiscal instrument and the design of the reforms. Then, medium-scale estimated models are used to assess the importance of news shocks in the US. First, the role of news in housing market dynamics is investigated. Results show that news shocks are important for housing market fiuctua- tions, and in particular boom-busts cycles. Survey-based expectations are used as external validation of the model. Then, the role of monetary policy news shocks is analysed in a business cycle model. Results show they improve the performance of the model without leading to identification problems; they account for a larger fraction of the fiuctuations in observables than the unanticipated monetary policy shock; and they help to achieve a better matching of the covariances of some observables.
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Dallari, Pietro. « DSGEs and PVARs : applications to macroeconomics ». Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/146249.

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This thesis adopts DSGE and PVAR models to examine three questions in macroeconomics. The first chapter singles out some pitfalls that DSGE models face when a fraction of rule-of-thumb consumers is assumed in order to replicate the positive response of consumption to government spending shocks observed in SVAR models. The second chapter quantifies the importance of the tourism channel for the international transmission of cyclical fluctuations to the Mediterranean basin. We show that, absent tourism flows, the output effects in a typical destination country would be one-fourth smaller. The third chapter examines the impact of austerity shocks on labor markets in the euro area. We find that the cross-country responses of labor market variables differ, notwithstanding similar output multipliers, as institutional reforms and dedicated policy plans foster the link between fiscal impulses and the domestic labor market.
Esta tesis adopta modelos DSGE y PVAR para examinar tres preguntas de macroeconomía. El primer capítulo identifica algunas dificultades que enfrentan los modelos DSGE cuando se supone que una fracción de consumidores sea de tipo rule-of-thumb con el fin de replicar la respuesta positiva del consumo a los shocks de gasto público que se observa en los modelos SVAR. El segundo capítulo cuantifica la importancia del canal de turismo para la transmisión internacional de las fluctuaciones cíclicas en la cuenca mediterránea. Se demuestra que, ausentes los flujos de turismo, los efectos sobre el producto en un país mediterráneo sería un cuarto menor. El tercer capítulo examina el impacto de los shocks de austeridad en los mercados laborales de la zona Euro. Encontramos que las respuestas de las variables del mercado laboral difieren entre los países, no obstante multiplicadores de producción similares. Las cuasas parecen estar relacionadas con reformas institucionales y planes de política económica dedicados que fomentan el vínculo entre los impulsos fiscales y del mercado laboral nacional.
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Faustino, Rui Alexandre Rodrigues Veloso. « Essays in macroeconomics ». Doctoral thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/20576.

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Doutoramento em Economia
This thesis has as its object of study the way consumer preferences affect structure and market power, measured through the markups of the firms that compete in it. By modifying the way consumer preferences are defined, it is possible to generate endogenous markups that significantly alter the responses of macroeconomic variables generated by different shocks. The thesis consists of three essays, the first of which analyzes the dynamics of markups in durable and nondurable consumption over the economic cycle and their response to shocks. For this, I take a New Keynesian model with durable goods and modified to include the habit formation at both types of goods. Depending on how the habit formation over durable consumption is defined, the model is able to replicate the responses of consumption variables, markups and prices observed in the data.The second essay deals with the effort made by consumers to compare prices between various sellers over the economic cycle. From microdata for the US, it is shown that increases in individuals’ hourly compensation translate into reductions in time spent comparing prices. From this, a mechanism is presented to generate countercyclical responses of the time spent in price comparison by consumers. When incorporated into general equilibrium models, this mechanism is capable of generating an amplifying effect on the responses of the main macroeconomic variables. Finally, a general equilibrium model is presented where the number of firms, varieties and quality of the consumed products are determined endogenously. Through the model, it is possible to analyze the dynamics of product creation and destruction, as well as the changes in their quality during the economic cycle, and their impact on the dynamics of the main macroeconomic variables.
Esta tese tem como objeto de estudo a forma como as preferências dos consumidores afetam a estrutura e o poder de mercado, medido através de markups, das empresas que nele concorrem. Modificando a forma como são definidas as preferências dos consumidores, é possível gerar markups endógenos e alterar significativamente as respostas de variáveis macroeconómicas a diferentes choques. A tese é composta por três ensaios, sendo que no primeiro são analisadas as dinâmicas dos markups nos bens de consumo duradouros e não duradouros ao longo do ciclo económico e a sua resposta a choques. Para isso, é apresentado um modelo Novo-Keynesiano com bens duradouros e não duradouros, modificado de forma a incluir a formação de hábitos nos dois tipos de bens. Dependendo da forma como é definida a formação de hábitos de consumo de bens duradouros, o modelo permite replicar as respostas observadas para o consumo, markups e preços. O segundo ensaio aborda o esforço despendido pelos consumidores na comparação de preços ao longo do ciclo económico. Partindo de microdados para os EUA, demonstro que aumentos da remuneração horária dos indivíduos traduzem-se em reduções no tempo despendido na comparação de preços. Em seguida, é apresentado um mecanismo capaz de gerar respostas contracíclicas do tempo despendido pelos consumidores na comparação de preços. Quando incorporado em modelos DSGE, é capaz de gerar um efeito amplificador das repostas das principais variáveis dos modelos. Por fim, é apresentado um modelo DSGE onde o número de empresas e a qualidade dos produtos consumidos são determinados de forma endógena. Através do modelo, é possível analisar as dinâmicas de criação e destruição de variedades, bem como das variações na sua qualidade durante o ciclo económico, e o seu impacto na dinâmica das principais variáveis macroeconómicas.
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Emiris, Marina. « Essays on macroeconomics and finance ». Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210764.

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Walker, Sébastien. « Essays in development macroeconomics ». Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.712398.

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Livres sur le sujet "Macroeconomics – Models"

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Giuseppe, Bertola, dir. Models for dynamic macroeconomics. Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2004.

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Felderer, B. Macroeconomics and new macroeconomics. Berlin : Springer-Verlag, 1987.

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Felderer, B. Macroeconomics and new macroeconomics. 2e éd. Berlin : Springer-Verlag, 1992.

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Macroeconomics : Models, debates, and developments. Oxford, UK : B. Blackwell, 1986.

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Macroeconomic models and controversies. New York : St. Martin's Press, 1994.

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1924-, Hickman Bert G., Huntington Hillard G et Sweeney James L, dir. Macroeconomics [i.e. Macroeconomic] impacts of energy shocks. Amsterdam : North-Holland, 1987.

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Benhabib, Jess. Homework in macroeconomics. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1990.

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Heilemann, Ullrich. Understanding macroeconomic models : Structural sensitivity analysis of a medium-sized model. Essen : Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, 1991.

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Helge, Brink, dir. Themes in modern macroeconomics. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire : Macmillan Press, 1992.

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D, McNelis Paul, dir. Computational macroeconomics for the open economy. Cambridge, MA : MIT Press, 2008.

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Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Macroeconomics – Models"

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Chirichiello, Giuseppe. « Macroeconomics of Aggregate Supply and New Classical Macroeconomics ». Dans Macroeconomic Models and Controversies, 132–78. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230371064_5.

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Chirichiello, Giuseppe. « Neoclassical Macroeconomics Reproposed ». Dans Macroeconomic Models and Controversies, 93–131. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230371064_4.

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Carlberg, Michael. « Simple Models of a Stationary Economy ». Dans Intertemporal Macroeconomics, 13–20. Heidelberg : Physica-Verlag HD, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-47023-3_3.

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Chirichiello, Giuseppe. « Macroeconomics of Rationing Equilibria ». Dans Macroeconomic Models and Controversies, 179–215. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230371064_6.

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MacDonald, Ronald. « Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models : Which does the Empirical Evidence Support ? » Dans International Macroeconomics, 217–44. London : Macmillan Education UK, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-24295-5_11.

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Pikoulakis, Emmanuel. « The Asset Approach to the Exchange Rate : Monetary Models of the Exchange Rate ». Dans International Macroeconomics, 32–59. London : Macmillan Education UK, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-24295-5_3.

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Chrystal, K. Alec. « Overshooting Models of the Exchange Rate ». Dans Current Issues in Macroeconomics, 214–30. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-20286-7_10.

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Pikoulakis, Emmanuel. « The Asset Approach to the Exchange Rate : Portfolio Balance Models of the Exchange Rate and the Current Account ». Dans International Macroeconomics, 60–84. London : Macmillan Education UK, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-24295-5_4.

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Wagner, Richard E. « Models of Social Order : Mechanical vs. Creative ». Dans Macroeconomics as Systems Theory, 35–63. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-44465-5_2.

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Weeks, John. « Logically Consistent Money-neutral Models ». Dans A Critique of Neoclassical Macroeconomics, 80–99. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-20296-6_6.

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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Macroeconomics – Models"

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Gisin, V. B., et E. S. Volkova. « Fuzzy linear regression in models of micro and macroeconomics ». Dans 2015 XVIII International Conference on Soft Computing and Measurements (SCM). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/scm.2015.7190475.

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SUKHAREV, Oleg, et Vladimir CHAPLYGIN. « ECONOMIC POLICY OF GROWTH : SELECTION OF INSTITUTES AND TECHNOLOGICAL MODELS OF DEVELOPMENT ». Dans Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.006.

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Purpose – to study the possibilities of institutional theory to establish a modern theory of economic growth, including the factors of institutions and technologies changes. These factors are a set of rules with high coercive force to the agents’ action form a particular mode/model of their adaptation, together with other institutions. Research Methodology – the neoclassical models of economic growth, which may include institutional factors and to study their impact on the growth and change of the factors, into the business practice are applied. The key scientific problem is to choose the right market Institute for a proper way of technological development. The authors use the micro-level analysis of the agents and institutions’ interaction in the process of new technologies appearance. Morphological and taxonomic analysis in order to highlight the models of technological development and economic growth had been applied. Findings – the research results may enrich an economic theory and practice in the area of business models applicability. The findings may assist a business community to influence the general technological development within the national institutional systems. Research limitations – due to the fact that different institutions, structures and technologies act on the economic dynamics at the same time, separating their influence is an independent scientific problem that is not solved in all cases. However, the set of considered institutional factors forms and provides a kind of “manufacturability” of economic growth. Practical implications – the so-called institutional macroeconomics as a practical discipline (which has a very close connection with behavioural macroeconomics) may assist to explore the economic growth from the point of view of changing institutions (firms, business community), labour markets and information – technical and technological changes. Originality/Value – the value of the research consists in the systematization of institutional factors affecting the economic growth, conducting a morphological structural analysis of growth types, which allow identifying eight main growth trajectories in business activity.
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Liu, Xinghua, Yu Xia et Hongsheng Xi. « Macroeconomic control in improved Metzler's model ». Dans 2011 International Conference on Electronics, Communications and Control (ICECC). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icecc.2011.6066363.

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Lourenço, Nuno, J. Manuel Colmenar, J. Ignacio Hidalgo et Sancho Salcedo-Sanz. « Evolving energy demand estimation models over macroeconomic indicators ». Dans GECCO '20 : Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference. New York, NY, USA : ACM, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3377930.3390153.

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David, S. A., D. D. Quintino et J. Soliani. « Fractional-order in a macroeconomic dynamic model ». Dans 11TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS 2013 : ICNAAM 2013. AIP, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4825961.

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Suslov, Victor, Alexandr Baranov et Boris Lavrovsky. « Macroeconomic model of the scientific-technological progress ». Dans 2017 Tenth International Conference Management of Large-Scale System Development (MLSD). IEEE, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/mlsd.2017.8109692.

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Kovalchuk, Olha, et Mykola Shynkaryk. « The Macroeconomic Model of Modern Global Terrorism ». Dans 2020 10th International Conference on Advanced Computer Information Technologies (ACIT). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/acit49673.2020.9208963.

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Chernyak, Oleksandr, Yevgen Chernyak et Yurii Horobets. « The influence of remittances on macroeconomical figures in Ukraine ». Dans Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Strategies, Models and Technologies of Economic Systems Management (SMTESM 2019). Paris, France : Atlantis Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/smtesm-19.2019.5.

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Qiuling, Hu, et Zhou Qifeng. « An Empirical Research of Effect on Term Structure by Macroeconomic Factors ». Dans 2020 2nd International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering (ICEMME). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icemme51517.2020.00124.

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Zhang, Jing, et Jinjie Zhang. « Relative Stability of Solution for Hua's Macroeconomic Model ». Dans 2011 Seventh International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Security (CIS). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cis.2011.343.

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Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Macroeconomics – Models"

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Hansen, Gary, et Lee Ohanian. Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, mars 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w22122.

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Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús, et Juan Rubio-Ramírez. Macroeconomics and Volatility : Data, Models, and Estimation. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, décembre 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w16618.

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Taylor, John. The Staying Power of Staggered Wage and Price Setting Models in Macroeconomics. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, juin 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w22356.

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Pompeu, Gustavo, et José Luiz Rossi. Real/Dollar Exchange Rate Prediction Combining Machine Learning and Fundamental Models. Inter-American Development Bank, septembre 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004491.

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The study of the predictability of exchange rates has been a very recurring theme on the economics literature for decades, and very often is not possible to beat a random walk prediction, particularly when trying to forecast short time periods. Although there are several studies about exchange rate forecasting in general, predictions of specifically Brazilian real (BRL) to United States dollar (USD) exchange rates are very hard to find in the literature. The objective of this work is to predict the specific BRL to USD exchange rates by applying machine learning models combined with fundamental theories from macroeconomics, such as monetary and Taylor rule models, and compare the results to those of a random walk model by using the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. We show that it is possible to beat the random walk by these metrics.
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De Castro-Valderrama, Marcela, Santiago Forero-Alvarado, Nicolás Moreno-Arias et Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga. Unraveling the Exogenous Forces Behind Analysts' Macroeconomic Forecasts. Banco de la República, décembre 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1184.

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Modern macroeconomics focuses on the identification of the primitive exogenous forces generating business cycles. This is at odds with macroeconomic forecasts collected through surveys, which are about endogenous variables. To address this divorce, our paper uses a general equilibrium model as a multivariate filter to infer the shocks behind market analysts' forecasts and thus, unravel their implicit macroeconomic stories. By interpreting all analysts' forecasts through the same lenses, it is possible to understand the differences between projected endogenous variables as differences in the types and magnitudes of shocks. It also allows to explain market's uncertainty about the future in terms of analysts' disagreement about these shocks. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated by adapting the canonical SOE semi-structural model in Carabenciov et al. (2008a) to Colombia and then using it to filter forecasts of its Central Bank's Monthly Expectations Survey during the COVID-19 crisis.
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Leeper, Eric, et Christopher Sims. Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, juin 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w4761.

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Waggoner, Daniel, et Tao Zha. Confronting Model Misspecification in Macroeconomics. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, janvier 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w17791.

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Kocherlakota, Narayana. Fragility of Purely Real Macroeconomic Models. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, janvier 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w21866.

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Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus, et Juan Rubio-Ramirez. Estimating Macroeconomic Models : A Likelihood Approach. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, février 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/t0321.

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Stiglitz, Joseph. Where Modern Macroeconomics Went Wrong. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, septembre 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w23795.

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