Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Macroeconomics – Methodology »
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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Macroeconomics – Methodology"
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Bidabad, Bijan. « Macroeconomics Needs Fresh Methodology of Theorization ». Asian Finance & ; Banking Review 3, no 2 (1 juillet 2019) : 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.46281/asfbr.v3i2.337.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In this paper, we try to analyze the macroeconomic reasoning in different methodological issues. Subsequently, we try to touch some current macroeconomic debates on aggregations, relations, monetary and real sectors analyses. We assess that what we know about the behavior of macroeconomic variables is just our understanding from empiricism, and we have rarely found the laws of linkages among macroeconomic variables. We also conclude that successive theories have an intuitional foundation. It seems that to improve macroeconomic theories and policies, we need to be redirected to basic philosophical thinking about the macroeconomic theoretical foundation and try to rebuild a new concrete base for macroeconomics.
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Sims, Christopher A. « Macroeconomics and Methodology ». Journal of Economic Perspectives 10, no 1 (1 février 1996) : 105–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.10.1.105.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Probabilistic reasoning is essential to discourse in economics. This is true in any discipline in which, as in economics, data collection is constrained and beliefs about the phenomena being studied are crucial to decisions that cannot be delayed. Some economists have recently turned away from form probabilistic inference, in part because of legitimate discontent with the prescriptions of specialized econometricians. However, this turning away has gone in mutually inconsistent directions and is in the long run unsustainable. It should be more widely recognized that careful applied work in macroeconomics, using steadily advancing probabilistic modeling techniques, has been steadily increasing.
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Backhouse, Roger, et Andrea Salanti. « The methodology of macroeconomics ». Journal of Economic Methodology 6, no 2 (juillet 1999) : 159–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13501789900000012.
Texte intégral
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Rahmayuni, Siti, et Ardi Paminto. « Corporate Governance and Macroeconomics on The Financial Stability of Islamic Banks ». IJEBD (International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Business Development) 4, no 4 (31 juillet 2021) : 510–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.29138/ijebd.v4i4.1417.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Purpose: This study discusses the influence of Corporate Governance and macroeconomics on financial stability in the Islamic banking sector.
Design/methodology/approach: This study employed a quantitative and Data analysis uses panel data regression.
Findings: while the independent variable in this study is Corporate Governance and Macroeconomics, with the results showing that Corporate Governance and macroeconomics have no partial effect..
Research limitations/implications: There are only two variables considered in this paper: corporate governance and macroeconomic.
Practical implications: partially corporate governance has no effect and macroeconomics has a negative effect.
Originality/value: TThis study calculates and finds out the truth of corporate governance and macroeconomic variables on financial stability.
Paper type: Research Paper
Keyword: Corporate Governance, Macroeconomics, Financial Stability, Inflation
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Galbács, Peter. « The methodology of contemporary macroeconomics ». Economics and Business Review 3 (17), no 3 (2017) : 3–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2017.3.1.
Texte intégral
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Lodewijks, John. « Macroeconometric Models and the Methodology of Macroeconomics ». History of Economics Society Bulletin 11, no 1 (1989) : 33–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1042771600005767.
Texte intégralRésumé :
“The stimulation given by the General Theory to the construction and testing of aggregative models may well prove to be Keynes's chief contribution to economics in the longer perspective of historical judgement.”
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ROSEN, RICHARD A. « IS THE IPCC’s 5TH ASSESSMENT A DENIER OF POSSIBLE MACROECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE ? » Climate Change Economics 07, no 01 (février 2016) : 1640003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007816400030.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This review summarizes what we know about the macroeconomics of mitigating climate change over the period 2010 to 2100 as presented in the 2014 IPCC Working Group III report. The review finds that little more, if anything, has been learned about the macroeconomics of mitigating climate change over the long run since the 2007 IPCC report. Furthermore, while the 2014 report is quite self-critical about the serious weaknesses in its methodologies, the self-criticisms are not explicitly taken into account when the net macroeconomic costs of mitigation are reported. Nor do the research teams that run the integrated assessment models relied on in the report utilize any systematic methodology for assessing the inherent uncertainty in the macroeconomic results reported. Thus, the basic quantitative “findings” are misleading — and, perhaps, even deceptive — in part because they appear to preclude the possibility of large macroeconomic benefits from mitigating climate change.
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Heinemann, Frank, et Charles Noussair. « Macroeconomic experiments ». Journal of Economic Studies 42, no 6 (9 novembre 2015) : 930–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-09-2015-0171.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to introduce the upcoming symposium on experimental macroeconomics in the November issue. Design/methodology/approach – Experimental, survey of articles in the symposium. Findings – The paper describes how experiments can be used in macroeconomics. Originality/value – The paper discusses the rationale for using behavioral experiments in macroeconomics, and summarizes the papers in the symposium.
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BRESSER-PEREIRA, LUIZ CARLOS, et GILBERTO TADEU LIMA. « The irreducibility of macro to microeconomics : a methodological approach ». Brazilian Journal of Political Economy 16, no 2 (juin 1996) : 175–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0101-31571996-0956.
Texte intégralRésumé :
ABSTRACT This paper criticizes the idea, widespread today, of the need to seek micro-foundations for macroeconomics. The authors argue that these two fields of economics, micro and macroeconomics, use different methodological approaches. Microeconomics deals with economic problems according to a logical-deductive methodology, while macroeconomics is more characterized by a historical-inductive approach. The attempt to reduce macroeconomics to microeconomics, or vice versa, brings only an impoverishment to science and economic debate, in which, ideally, there should be room for a great pluralism of ideas and theoretical currents.
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Marangos, John. « Teaching introductory macroeconomics during the Greek financial crisis ». International Journal of Social Economics 46, no 8 (12 août 2019) : 1032–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-09-2017-0421.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to determine how including the Greek financial crisis in teaching introductory macroeconomics benefits students. Design/methodology/approach The methodology is based on the responses of a recent survey administered to students at a university in Greece. Findings An eclectic approach that distinguishes various economic theories and methodologies, mainly neoclassical and Keynesian, can provide a pedagogical way of teaching introductory macroeconomics, allowing students to use their everyday personal experiences in determining the most “suitable” theory in explaining the crisis. Originality/value To the author’s knowledge, such an exercise of discovering students’ perceptions of teaching an introductory macroeconomics Substitute with course during the global financial crisis has not yet been attempted.
Thèses sur le sujet "Macroeconomics – Methodology"
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MERTENS, Karel. « Essays in applied macroeconomics ». Doctoral thesis, European University Institute, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/10315.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Defence date: 3 December 2007Examining Board: Prof. Giancarlo Corsetti, (EUI) ; Prof. Wouter Den Haan, (University of Amsterdam) ; Prof. Mark Gertler (New York University) ; Prof. Rick Van der Ploeg, (EUI)
First made available online 4 June 2015.
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digital archive of EUI PhD theses
The first chapter, 'How the Removal of Deposit Rate Ceilings Has Changed Monetary Transmission in the US: Theory and Evidence' is concerned with US monetary history and the impact of institutional changes in the late 1970s and early 1980s on the monetary transmission mechanism. The chapter presents evidence on a phenomenon of disintermediation occurring during the major recessions in the 1960s and 1970s, but absent ever since. Using a novel data set, I show that disintermediation is closely linked to the existence of deposit rate ceilings that were imposed under regulation Q of the Federal Reserve System. Disintermediation potentially has real effects if the resulting shortage of loanable funds forces banks to cut back on lending to borrowers that rely on intermediated finance. The main hypothesis of Chapter 1 is that regulation-induced disintermediation affected the monetary transmission mechanism during the 1960s and 1970s and provided the Federal Reserve with greater leverage over real activity than afterwards. In a monetary DSGE model that incorporates deposit rate ceilings as occasionally binding constraints, I show how the regulation alters the behavior of money aggregates and exacerbates the drop in economic activity following a monetary tightening. The results of a threshold VAR lend support to the main theoretical predictions of the model. This chapter contributes to establishing the existence and nature of changes in the conduct and transmission of monetary policy since the mid 1980s, which is key in understanding the remarkable macroeconomic performance of the US since then. Chapter 2, titled 'The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops', studies the abrupt declines in capital inflows, usually accompanied by depression-sized, but short-lived, contractions in economic activity, that have plagued so many countries in the last 25 years. It proposes a new framework for the analysis of these 'Sudden Stops' and applies it to the case of the Korean Crisis in 1998. The chapter presents a flexible-price small open economy model that faces a 'peso problem' in productivity states. Agents rationally adjust their beliefs about future productivity growth after the arrival of news. A downward revision of expectations triggers a Sudden Stop, together with large declines in GDP, employment, consumption and investment. One of the distinctive features of the model is that there need not be any actual change in productivity growth to generate large fluctuations. Quantitatively, the model goes a long way in matching the 1998 Korean Crisis and subsequent swift recovery by considering a sudden deterioration of expectations about the future. The last chapter, 'Business Cycle Analysis and VARMA Models', is joint work with Christian Kascha and is more methodological in nature. We address the question whether long-run identified Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs), which are a popular tool in applied macroeconomics, can in practice discriminate between competing models. Some authors have recently suggested that SVARs may fail to do so partly because they are finiteorder approximations to infinite-order stochastic processes. We estimate VARMA and state space models, which are not misspecified, using simulated data and compare true with estimated impulse responses of hours worked to a technology shock. We find little gain from using VARMA models. However, state space models do outperform SVARs. In particular, subspace methods consistently yield lower mean squared errors, although even these estimates remain too imprecise for reliable inference. Our findings indicate that longrun identified SVARs perform weakly because of small sample problems, not because of the finite-order approximation.
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De, Jager Daniel. « The assessment of improvements made in the freight logistics costing methodology in South Africa from a macroeconomic perspective ». Thesis, Theses -- Logistics, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/1765.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Thesis (MComm (Logistics)) University Of Stellenbosch, 2008.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In 2006 het F.J. Botes, C.G. Jacobs en W.J. Pienaar van die Universiteit van Stellenbosch artikel gepubliseer oor die Logistieke Koste Model getitel “A model to calculate the cost of logistics at a macro level: a case study for South Africa”. Die Logistieke Koste Model was op daardie stadium al baan breek werk gewees in Suid Afrika en het gelei na die publikasie van die eerste “State of Logistics Survey for South Africa” deur die Wetenskaplike en Nywerheidsnavorsingsraad (WNNR). Sedertdien is die metodologie in die Logistieke Koste Model oor die jare verbeter, veral in 2008 toe nuwe metodes van padvervoer koste berekening op baie gedetailleerde vlak toegepas is, asook nuwe metodes van voorraad drakoste. Dit is hierdie en ander verbeteringe in die Logistieke Koste Model sedertdien die vorige publikasie deur Botes et al wat in hierdie tesis uitgelig word. Tekortkominge en moontlike metodes om die model te verbeter word ook uitgewys. Dit is van mening dat hierdie dokumentasie belangrik van aard is aangesien die Logistieke Koste Model deur die Sentrum vir Voorsieningskettingbestuur (Universiteit van Stellenbosch) gebruik word om te konsulteer aan Transnet, die WNNR en ander vragvervoer diens leweransiers. Die “State of Logistics Survey for South Africa” publikasie deur die WNNR word ook deur publieke asook private ondernemings gebruik in die maak van makro-ekonomiese strategiese besluite. Hierdie navorsing lig ook die uitkomste van die 2008 Logistieke Koste Model opdatering uit. Maniere waarop hierdie uitkomste geïnterpreteer kan word deur industrie om wyse strategiese investeringsbesluite te neem van makro-ekonomiese aard word ook uitgewys.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In 2006 F.J. Botes, C.G. Jacobs and W.J. Pienaar from the University of Stellenbosch published an article on the Logistics Cost Model titled “A model to calculate the cost of logistics at a macro level: a case study for South Africa”. Back then already the model proved to be groundbreaking work in South Africa, and led to the publication of the first State of Logistics survey for South Africa through the Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR). Since then the methodology of the Logistics Cost Model has been improving every year, especially during 2008 update when new ways of modelling the road transport costs of the country on a highly detailed level were applied, as well as new ways of modelling inventory carrying costs like never before. It is these and other improvements made in the Logistics Cost Model since the previous publication by Botes et al that is highlighted in this research, as well as the shortcomings in the current methodology, coupled with ways of possibly improving it in future. It is felt that this is important work to document since the Logistics Cost Model outcome is used by the Centre for Supply Chain Management (University of Stellenbosch) for consulting to Transnet, the CSIR, and other freight logistics service providers. The State of Logistics survey for South Africa publication is also read by public and private industry and is used in making strategic business decisions. This research also highlights the outcome of the 2008 Logistics Cost Model update, as well as how the outcome can be interpreted by industry in making key strategic decisions in future on a macroeconomic scale.
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Pinzón, Fuchs Erich. « Economics as a "tooled" discipline : Lawrence R. Klein and the making of macroeconometric modeling : 1939-1959 ». Thesis, Paris 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA01E052/document.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Cette thèse, dont l'objectif est de faire prévaloir l'importance de la macro-économétrie dans l'histoire de la macro-économie, s'articule autour de deux questions centrales : (1) Quelles ont été les forces et les objectif qui ont motivé le développement de la modélisation macro-économétrique et quelle est la nature des outils et des institutions que les macro-économistes ont construit pour observer, comprendre et contrôler l'économie d'après-guerre aux États-Unis , (2) Quels ont été les effets de la construction et de l'utilisation de tels outils dans la production du savoir macro-économique ? En considérant Lawrence R. Klein comme une figure centrale, je parcours la discipline économique des années 1940-1950 en me focalisant sur l'intersection entre l'histoire de la macro-économie et celle de l'économétrie, et ainsi, je propose une nouvelle vision de 'économie du vingtième siècle en tant que discipline "saisie par les outils", dans laquelle la théorie (économique et statistique), l'application, l'expertise et la politique s'incorporent dans un même outil scientifique : un model macro-économétrique. j'expose donc l'histoire de la macro-économie non pas comme le produit des questions idéologiques monolithiques ou purement théoriques, mais plutôt comme le produit des visions épistémologiques et de stratégies de modélisation divergentes qui remontent aux débats entre les approches empiriques de la macro-économie étatunienne et les méthodologies Walrasienne et Marshallienne. Ainsi, je soutiens la thèse que Klein a été le personnage principal dans la création d'une nouvelle manière de produire le savoir macro-économique qui, à travers la construction et l'utilisation d'outils complexes (modèles macro-économétriques) mis en place au sein d'une configuration institutionnelle spécifique (laboratoires économétriques), poursuivait des objectifs explicites de politique économique, et par laquelle les rôles bien définis des experts (équipes scientifiques) étaient intégrées à une nouvelle pratique scientifique : la modélisation macro-économiqueIn this disseration, I place macroeconometric modeling at the center of the history of twentieth century macroeconomics, i. e. as e history of macroeconometrics, and ask two central questions : (1) What exactly were the objectives and the forces driving the development of macroeconometric modeling, and what kind of tools and institutions did macroeconomists build to observe, understand, and control the US postwar economy ? (2) What were the effects that the construction and use of these tools had on the production of macroeconomic knowledge ? Taking Lawrence R. Klein as a vehicle, I travel accross the economics discipline of the 1940s and 1950s, and study the intersection between the history of macroeconomics and the history of econometrics, providing a new understanding of twentieth century economics as a "tooled" discipline, in which theory (economy and statistical), application, expertise, and policy become embedded within one scientific tool : a macroeconometric model. Consequently, I present the history of macroeconomics not as the product of monolithic ideological and purely theoretical issues, but rather of divergent epistemological views and modeling strategies that go back to the debates between US-Walrasian and US-Marshallian approaches to empirical macroeconomics in which macroeconometric modeling from the heart of macroeconometrics. My thesis is that Klein what the most important figure in the creation of a new way to produce scientific knowledge that consisted in the construction and use of compex tools (macroeconometric models) within specific institutional configurations (econometric labotories) and for explicit policy and scientific objectives, in which well-defined roles of experts (scientific teams) were embodied within a new scientific practice (macroeconometric modeling)
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Nasachenko, M. « Modeling the influence of monetary policy on real sector using system dynamics methodology : case of Ukraine ». Thesis, Sumy State University, 2019. https://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/77621.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The use of macroeconomic models in the decision-making process avoids
costly and sometimes impossible practical experiments. In addition, modeling helps
to determine the outcomes of the implementation of various economic programs, the
use of certain monetary policy instruments, etc. The search for the new approaches
and the use of efficient economic and mathematical tools for adequate reproduction
and formalization of dynamic, nonlinear and stochastic interconnections, both
between the elements within individual subsystems of the economic system and
between its subsystems in general, are constantly in progress.
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Сунцова, О. О. « Методологічні засади макроекономічного регулювання розвитку національного господарства ». Thesis, Національна академія управління, 2011. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/51456.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Досліджені методологічні засади макроекономічного регулювання розвитку національного господарства, проаналізовано методології макроекономічного регулювання, оцінено ефективність фінансових регуляторів і у посткризовий період запропоновано комплекс методик для визначення ефективності макроекономічних регуляторів розвитку. Проведено порівняльний аналіз провідних вітчизняних та зарубіжних теорій і концепцій використання важелів макроекономічного регулювання розвитку національного господарства, визначено детермінанти механізму макроекономічного розвитку національного господарства. Проведено ретроспективний аналіз методологічних основ макроекономічного регулювання національного господарства та його фінансового забезпечення, систематизовано елементи різних методологій, які можуть бути адаптовані до нових посткризових умов функціонування світової економіки.
Розроблена концепція і стратегія удосконалення макроекономічного регулювання соціально-економічних процесів держави з урахуванням негативних впливів світової фінансової рецесії. Запропоновано науково-методичні підходи до вимірювання ефективності фінансових регуляторів соціально-економічних процесів, проведена діагностика макроекономічної стабільності національного господарства. Висвітлено шляхи удосконалення інструментів макроекономічного регулювання національного господарства, особливо за його фінансовою складовою.В диссертации комплексно исследованы проблемы методологии макроэкономического развития национального хозяйства, проанализирована методика макроэкономического регулирования, оценена эффективность финансовых регуляторов и в посткризисный период предложен комплекс методик для определения эффективности макроэкономических регуляторов развития. Проведен сравнительный анализ ведущих отечественных и зарубежных теорий и концепций использования рычагов макроэкономического регулирования национального хозяйства, определены детерминанты механизма макроэкономического регулирования национального хозяйства. Проведен комплексный анализ методологических основ макроэкономического регулирования национального хозяйства и его финансового обеспечения, систематизированы элементы разных методологий, которые могут быть использованы в новых посткризисных условиях функционирования мировой экономики. Исследован вопрос определения макроэкономического механизма регулирования развития национального хозяйства, проведен ретроспективный анализ методологических основ макроэкономического регулирования сложных социально-экономических систем, детерминант механизма макроэкономического регулирования национального хозяйства и методологические подходы к набору рычагов финансового обеспечения макроэкономического регулирования развития национального хозяйства. Проанализированы существующие методологии исследования макроэкономических показателей развития национального хозяйства Украины, предложен научно-методический подход к измерению эффективности финансовых регуляторов социально-экономических процессов, проведена диагностика макроэкономической стабильности национального хозяйства состояния финансового обеспечения социально-экономического развития, таких как: финансовое планирование и прогнозирование, бюджетные и налоговые инструменты активизации темпов экономического развития, банковская сфера, акционерный капитал, финансовые рынки. В диссертации комплексно исследованы пути усовершенствования инструментов макроэкономического регулирования национального хозяйства. Предложена стратегия макроэкономического регулирования социально-экономических процессов государства с учетом реалий мировой финансовой рецессии. Выявлена основная ошибка в макрорегулировании экономики, которая привела к системному кризису национального хозяйства Украины. Предложена концепция усовершенствования механизма макроэкономического регулирования развития национального хозяйства по бюджетной составляющей. Сгруппированы теории развития сложных экономических систем, которые раскрывают общие парадигмы макроэкономических систем различного типа развития, которые классифицированы за концепциями. Проведен теоретический анализ существующих концепций и теорий макроэкономического регулирования развития экономики. Предложена и протестирована гипотеза относительно влияния финансового развития на темпы экономического роста; доказано, что уровень финансового развития, рассчитанный как соотношение банковских ликвидных кредитов к уровню ВВП определенной страны, влияет на ускорение темпов экономического роста данной страны.
The thesis is devoted to the development of theoretical and methodological foundations of the macroeconomic regulation of national economy. In thesis was analyzed the methodology of macroeconomic adjustment, evaluated the effectiveness of financial regulators in the aftermath of the crisis and offered a number of methods to determine the effectiveness of macroeconomic controls. It contains the comparative analysis of leading domestic and foreign theories and concepts of levers of macroeconomic control of the national economy. It was defined the macroeconomic determinants of the regulation mechanism of national economy’s growth. It was given the retrospective analysis of the methodological foundations of macroeconomic regulation of the national economy and its financial support; it was systematized elements of different methodologies that can be adapted to the new post-crisis conditions of the global economy. It was proposed the concept and strategy of improving the macroeconomic regulation of state’ socio-economic processes, taking in point the negative impacts of the global financial recession. It was proposed the scientific and systematic approaches to measuring the effectiveness of financial regulators of socio-economic processes, conducted diagnostic macroeconomic stability of the national economy. It was illuminated the ways of improvement of tools of macroeconomic regulation of the national economy, especially its financial component.
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Vischio, Andrew Joseph. « An analysis of methodologies to estimate the economic impacts of freight transportation system disruptions ». Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/37284.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Disruptions to the freight transportation system are costly due to freight's critical relationship to economic productivity. This research will analyze the current methods of estimating the economic impacts of disruptions to the freight transportation system. A review of existing literature will be conducted with the intent of finding methods that address different types of disruptions and impacts. Due to varying economic scopes and disruptions studied, the results will likely indicate a broad range of methodologies and trends. The results will be used to better understand the different approaches taken when quantifying the economic impacts of disruptions and therefore enable more informed policy, regulation and investment.
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WATZKA, Sebastian. « Essays in applied macroeconometrics ». Doctoral thesis, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/7008.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Defence date: 11 May 2007Examining board: Prof. Helmut Lütkepohl, (EUI); Prof. Morten Ravn, (EUI); Prof. Gerhard Illing, (University of Munich) ; Prof. Fabrice Collard, (GREQAM)
First made available online on 24 June 2015.
My thesis consists of three independent chapters. Each of them is an empirical study using time series techniques to learn something about the macroeconomy. Hence the title "Essays in Applied Macroeconometrics". Whilst the first chapter is a rather descriptive analysis of the functioning of European bond markets when public news come out, the second and third chapters are guided by business cycle theory and use this theory in the estimation of the models. The next section gives a very brief overview of the thesis. The first chapter. "Macroeconomic News and the European Bond Market", is an empirical analysis of how the European bond market reacts to macroeconomic announcements and in particular to news in those announcements. The second and third chapters study the causes of the US business cycle and the functioning of the US labor market. The second chapter, "Shocks and Adjustment Costs in an estimated BBC model for the US", takes the simple RBC model and asks which real shocks and which factor adjustment costs matter for the US business cycle in such a model. The third chapter, "Dynamic Beveridge and Phillips curves: A macroeconoinetric analysis of the US labor market", investigates in more detail the frictions in the IJS labor market. Although chapters two and three are empirical in nature, they are firmly grounded in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) theory and make heavy use of this theory in the empirical analysis. The rest of this introduction summarizes each chapter in some more detail.
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Serôdio, Firmino Miguel da Silva Tacão da Costa. « Câmbios YUN/EUR e o seu impacto nas exportações de Portugal para a China ». Master's thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/15552.
Texte intégralRésumé :
A relação entre as exportações de um país e a taxa de câmbio da sua moeda foram desde
sempre alvo de estudo económico, dada a tendência generalizada pela implementação de
medidas de depreciação da moeda para aumentar as exportações. Esta tem sido desde sempre
a principal arma utilizada por países com baixos níveis de desenvolvimento humano e
industrial para forçarem o aumento do seu produto, contudo nem sempre os estudos
comprovam que este comportamento é verdadeiro. Este trabalho tem como objectivo
examinar a hipótese de a taxa de câmbio Yuan/ser um determinante das exportações de
Portugal para a China. Isto será realizado através de um estudo econométrico, efectuando-se
uma análise de estacionariedade e cointegração assim como a estimação de um modelo de
vectores de correcção de erros. A conclusão a que se chega com este estudo é que as
exportações de Portugal para a China são um fenómeno difícil de explicar usando a taxa de
câmbio e que só são mesmo justificadas por acontecimentos comerciais pontuais.Since a long time ago, the relationship between the gross exports of a specific country and his exchange rate have been a target of study, taking into account the monetary measures of depreciation of the currency to create an increase in the global exports amount. This behavior has been used by under-developed countries as a monetary weapon to try to force the increase of their GDP, but the studies not always prove that this behavior can be generalized. The main goal of this thesis is to analyze the hypothesis of the Exchange rate between Yuan/Euro be consider as a key factor to the global export amount of Portugal to China. For that we have used several econometric techniques, as stationarity and cointegration analysis as well as an estimation of vector error-correction model. The main conclusion of this study is that the global exports from Portugal to China are a difficult event to analyze when we use the exchange rate between Yuan/Euro as a key factor, and that can only be explained when we look through specific commercial events.
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Fonseca, Nádia Gabriela Jorge. « Da(s) Crise(s) à Adaptação : famílias com filhos adultos emergentes em contexto de instabilidade macroeconómica ». Doctoral thesis, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10316/96429.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Tese no âmbito do Programa Inter-Universitário de Doutoramento em Psicologia, área de especialização em Psicologia Clínica - área temática: Psicologia da Família e Intervenção Familiar, da Faculdade de Psicologia e de Ciências da Educação da Universidade de Coimbra, em associação com a Faculdade de Psicologia da Universidade de Lisboa, orientada pela Professora Doutora Ana Paula Pais Rodrigues da Fonseca Relvas e pela Professora Doutora Carla Alexandra Mesquita Crespo e apresentada à Faculdade de Psicologia e de Ciências da Educação da Universidade de Coimbra.Introdução: O início do século XXI está a ser profundamente marcado por crises macroeconómicas. Ao longo dos últimos anos, as famílias portuguesas têm vivido num contexto macroeconómico instável na sequência da crise de 2008. Aproximadamente uma década depois, surge uma nova crise com contornos socioeconómicos complexos associada à pandemia de COVID-19. A emergência de circunstâncias macroeconómicas desfavoráveis acarreta desafios psicossociais para os indivíduos e famílias, incluindo declínios na saúde mental e no bem-estar familiar. Nos contextos macroeconómicos contemporâneos, são impostos reptos particularmente complexos às famílias com filhos adultos emergentes (i.e., 18-30 anos), na medida em que o ambiente de instabilidade pode ameaçar o processo de autonomização financeira dos jovens, tarefa desenvolvimental central deste período. Ancorada numa abordagem sistémica, atenta às interfaces entre dimensões contextuais e desenvolvimentais, e partindo de teorias de stress e resiliência familiares, esta investigação procurou desenvolver uma visão mais aprofundada sobre as vivências das famílias com filhos adultos emergentes em contexto de instabilidade macroeconómica. Foram definidos os seguintes objetivos principais: I. conhecer as exigências macroeconómicas que as famílias com filhos adultos emergentes têm enfrentado nos últimos anos e o seu impacto psicossocial; II. compreender como as mesmas se têm adaptado a estas exigências, identificando processos familiares de resiliência neste contexto de adversidade. Metodologia: Esta investigação apresenta um desenho metodológico misto, compreendo a recolha de dados quantitativos em 2016/2017, através de questionários de autorresposta; e de dados qualitativos em 2018/2019, através de entrevistas familiares conjuntas. Foi recolhida informação de múltiplos membros da família (pais, mães, e filho/as adulto/as emergentes), tendo participado um total de 424 famílias (1220 indivíduos) na componente quantitativa e de 14 famílias (48 indivíduos) na componente qualitativa. Na globalidade, esta investigação integra 11 estudos: seis estudos preliminares, quatro estudos conduzidos a partir dos dados quantitativos e um estudo conduzido a partir dos dados qualitativos. O trabalho preliminar envolveu duas revisões da literatura (Estudos 1 e 2), três estudos de adaptação de instrumentos que integraram o protocolo de investigação quantitativa (Estudos 3, 4 e 5); e um estudo adicional que, através de uma análise de dados omissos (missings), permitiu identificar boas práticas na avaliação de exigências macroeconómicas (Estudo 6). Adotando diferentes unidades de análise (individual, diádica, familiar), os Estudos 7, 8, 9, 10 e 11 procuraram responder aos objetivos principais do presente trabalho. Resultados: A partir da análise e integração dos resultados dos diferentes estudos, concluiu-se que, na sequência da crise de 2008, as famílias portuguesas com filhos adultos emergentes enfrentaram permanentemente exigências macroeconómicas – de natureza objetiva, sob a forma de adversidade económica (e.g., perda de rendimentos), sobretudo no início da década passada; e subjetiva, sob a forma de preocupações e receios financeiros (e.g., conseguiremos manter/encontrar emprego?), principalmente no final da década passada – as quais se traduziram num conjunto de custos psicossociais para os membros da família e para a família como um todo. Enquanto o impacto de exigências macroeconómicas objetivas se revelou mais pronunciado para certos grupos (e.g., subsistema parental, famílias de nível socioeconómico mais baixo), as implicações das preocupações financeiras foram transversais para indivíduos e famílias. Identificaram-se três grupos de processos familiares facilitadores da adaptação a exigências macroeconómicas: modus operandi e reajustamentos financeiros, recursos familiares, e significados e crenças familiares. O suporte parental destacou-se como um dos recursos mais significativos para lidar com a incerteza em tempos macroeconómicos difíceis. Conclusões: Não obstante as suas limitações (e.g., desenho transversal, foco nas famílias nucleares intactas), esta investigação contribuiu para o avanço do conhecimento científico sobre as interfaces entre famílias e os seus contextos macroeconómicos, proporcionando um primeiro retrato das vivências das famílias portuguesas com filhos adultos emergentes em instabilidade macroeconómica. Dos resultados deste trabalho decorrem implicações para a investigação futura, cuja pertinência se acentua atendendo à emergência da crise pandémica, bem como implicações práticas de carácter clínico e macrossocial. O mapeamento de custos económicos e psicossociais e de respostas adaptativas a exigências macroeconómicas, realizado nesta investigação, pode informar o desenvolvimento de programas e políticas públicas que visem a redução dos impactos negativos das crises macroeconómicas na vida de indivíduos, famílias e comunidades.
Introduction: The beginning of the 21st century has been deeply marked by macroeconomic crises. Over the last years, Portuguese families have been living in an unstable macroeconomic context in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. Approximately one decade later, a new crisis involving complex socioeconomic features begins due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The emergence of adverse macroeconomic circumstances creates psychosocial challenges for individuals and families, including detrimental effects for mental health and family well-being. Amidst today’s macroeconomic contexts, families with emerging adult children (i.e., 18-30 years) face unique challenges, as macroeconomic instability may threaten the achievement of children’s financial independence, a central developmental task defining this life period. Stemming from a systemic approach, paying attention to the interfaces between contextual and developmental dimensions, and drawing upon family stress and resilience theories, the present research sought to develop an in-depth view of the experiences of families with emerging adult children in the context of macroeconomic instability. The following main aims were defined: I. to identify the macroeconomic demands that these families have been facing over the last years, and its psychosocial impact; II. to understand how they adapt to these demands, mapping the family processes that foster resilience in this context of adversity. Methodology: This research adopted a mixed methodological design, involving the collection of quantitative data in 2016/2017, through self-report questionnaires; and of qualitative data in 2018/2019, through joint family interviews. Data were collected from multiple family members (fathers, mothers and emerging adult children), with a total of 424 families (1220 individuals) participating in the quantitative component and of 14 families (48 individuals) participating in the qualitative component. Overall, this research includes 11 studies: six preliminary studies, four studies conducted with quantitative data and one study conducted with qualitative data. The preliminary work encompassed two literature reviews (Studies 1 and 2), three studies of validation of measures that integrated the quantitative assessment protocol (Studies 3, 4 and 5), and one additional study that allowed the identification of best practices in the assessment of macroeconomic demands, through an inspection of missingness (Study 6). Adopting different units of analysis, Studies 7, 8, 9, 10 e 11 aimed to provide answers to the main goals of the present work.Results: The analysis and integration of the studies’ results showed that, in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, Portuguese families with emerging adult children have been continuously facing macroeconomic demands – objective, in the form of economic hardship (e.g., income loss), mainly during early 2010s; and subjective, in the form of economic strain, worries and fears (e.g., will we be able to maintain/find a job?), mainly in late 2010s – which resulted in psychological costs for family members and for the family as a whole. The impact of objective macroeconomic demands was found to be more pronounced for specific groups (e.g., parental subsystem, families with a lower socioeconomic status), while economic strain appeared to involve transversal consequences within and between families. Three groups of family processes for adaptation to macroeconomic demands were identified: modus operandi and financial readjustments, family resources, and family meanings and belief systems. Parental support was found to be one of the most significant resources to deal with uncertainty during macroeconomic hard times. Conclusions: Despite its limitations (e.g., cross-sectional design, focus on two-parent families), this research contributed to advance the scientific knowledge about the interfaces between families and their macroeconomic contexts, providing a first look into the experiences of Portuguese families with emerging adult children in macroeconomic hard times. Findings from our studies have implications for future research, which takes significant momentum in the wake of the socioeconomic ramifications of the pandemic, as well as practical implications at the clinical and macrosocial levels. The map of economic and psychosocial costs and adaptative responses to macroeconomic demands, resulting from this research, can inform the development of programs and public policies aimed at reducing the negative impacts of macroeconomic crises in the lives of individuals, families and communities.
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Mourão, Letícia da Costa e. Silva. « Determinantes do desempenho das instituições bancárias brasileiras ». Doctoral thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10316/94982.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Tese no âmbito do Doutoramento em Gestão - Ciência Aplicada à Decisão apresentada à Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de CoimbraHá um aumento dos debates académicos sobre o desempenho dos bancos. Alguns estudos argumentam que o desempenho bancário é reforçado por melhorias na organização interna e eficiência na gestão. Argumenta-se também que as novas regulamentações internacionais são parte integrante do desempenho do banco. Outros estudos, mais recentes, incluem a propriedade e factores macroeconómicos como determinantes do desempenho bancário. Esta tese investiga os determinantes do desempenho bancário utilizando variáveis idiossincráticas dos bancos (incluindo regulamentação) e variáveis sistemáticas, isto é, macroeconómicas, além de estruturas de propriedade, crise e diversificação. Foram utilizados painéis dinâmicos (GMM) de 65 bancos brasileiros no período de a 2001-2017. O sector bancário brasileiro se mostrou expressivo economicamente e crescente no período analisado. Os activos no último semestre da amostra chegaram a mais de 8 mil milhões de reais e as captações a cerca de 6 mil milhões de reais. Os lucros líquidos dos bancos cresceram cerca de 14 vezes no período da amostra. Este estudo concluiu que o desempenho passado tem um peso determinante no desempenho futuro. Além disso, descobriu-se que a receita proveniente de comissões bancárias impacta negativamente o desempenho dos bancos, pois aumenta os custos das operações bancárias e causa o efeito fuga. O crescimento económico e inflação impactam positivamente o desempenho, mostrando que o desenvolvimento da economia está relacionado ao mercado bancário. Outros determinantes macroeconómicos são relevantes, tais como: taxa de câmbio, endividamento público e desemprego. E determinantes idiossincráticos relevantes foram: números de agência e incumprimento. Determinantes como: regulamentação, taxa de juros base e custos de pessoal não foram significativos. Descobrimos que a propriedade interfere no desempenho dos bancos. Os bancos estrangeiros apresentam uma NIM mais baixa que os bancos domésticos e públicos, mostrando a postura dos bancos brasileiros em aplicar altas margens de intermediação. Os bancos públicos apresentam menor ROE do que os domésticos. Em uma análise sobre o impacto da crise, verificamos que os bancos públicos são mais resilientes a crise do que os bancos estrangeiros e domésticos. A diversificação na intermediação não impactou no desempenho. Estes modelos geram diversas informações úteis para a tomada de decisão dos gestores bancários e fazedores de políticas públicas.
There is an increasing academic debate about bank performance. Some studies argue that banking performance is reinforced by management improvement, as also argued that new international regulations are an integral part of bank performance. Other recent studies include ownership structure and macroeconomic factors as performance´s determinants. This thesis investigated the determinants of banking performance using idiosyncratic bank variables (including regulation) and systematic (macroeconomic) variables, ownership structures, crisis and diversification. This thesis uses dynamic panels (GMM) from 65 Brazilian banks in the period from 2001-2017. The Brazilian banking sector had an expressive growth in analyzed period. In the last period of the sample reached more than 8 billion reais of assets and around 6 billion reais of funding. Bank net profits grew about 14 times over the sample period. This study concluded that past performance has a major bearing on future performance. In addition, bank commission income was found to negatively impact banks' performance. Economic growth and inflation positively impact performance, showing that economy is related to the banking market. Other macroeconomic determinants are relevant, such as: exchange rate, public debt and unemployment. Idiosyncratic determinants relevant were agency numbers and default. Determinants such as regulation, interest rate and personnel were not significant. We found that ownership affects bank performance. Foreign banks have a lower NIM than domestic and public, showing the trending of Brazilian banks to apply high intermediation margins. Public banks have lower ROE than domestic banks. Analyzing the impact of the crisis, we find that public banks are more resilient to the crisis than foreign and domestic ones. Diversification in intermediation was non-significant for performance. These models generate a variety of useful information for decision making by bank managers and policy makers.
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior e Banco do Brasil
Livres sur le sujet "Macroeconomics – Methodology"
1
Giuseppe, Bertola, dir. Models for dynamic macroeconomics. Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2004.
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Macroeconomic methodology : A post-Keynesian perspective. Cheltenham, UK : Edward Elgar, 2009.
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Akimov, N. I. Politicheskai︠a︡ ėkonomii︠a︡ sovremennogo sposoba proizvodstva. Moskva : Ėkonomika, 2002.
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Makroėkonomicheskoe razvitie : Tendent︠s︡ii i perspektivy. Moskva : Nauka, 2005.
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Voies de la recherche macroéconomique. Paris : Editions O. Jacob, 1991.
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Dow, Sheila C. The methodology of macroeconomic thought : A conceptual analysis of schools of thought in economics. 2e éd. Brookfield, VT : E. Elgar, 1996.
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Applied macroeconometrics. Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2001.
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The representative agent in macroeconomics. London : Routledge, 1997.
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service), SpringerLink (Online, dir. The Evolution of Macroeconomic Theory and Policy. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, 2009.
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Stiglitz, Joseph E. Alternative approaches to macroeconomics : Methodological issues and the new Keynesian economics. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1991.
Trouver le texte intégralChapitres de livres sur le sujet "Macroeconomics – Methodology"
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Ibáñez, Carlos Usabiaga. « Methodology ». Dans The Current State of Macroeconomics, 292–95. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781403915948_21.
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Lavoie, Marc. « Production Functions, the Kaldor-Verdoorn Law and Methodology ». Dans Alternative Approaches in Macroeconomics, 303–30. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-69676-8_12.
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Olesen, Finn. « Does macroeconomics have to deal with ethical considerations ? » Dans Macroeconomic Modelling, Economic Policy and Methodology, 26–36. London : Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003253457-4.
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Wible, James R. « Contested Research Practices in Econometrics, Methodology, and Macroeconomics ». Dans The Economics of Scientific Misconduct, 227–46. London : Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003009252-11.
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Biddle, Jeff E. « On the Attribution of Causality and Responsibility in Macroeconomics ». Dans Essays on the Methodology and Discourse of Economics, 275–87. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-12371-1_16.
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Valdecantos, Sebastian. « The long decay of Argentina ». Dans Macroeconomic Modelling, Economic Policy and Methodology, 143–58. London : Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003253457-11.
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Madsen, Mogens Ove. « Understanding the temporal in Keynesian economics ». Dans Macroeconomic Modelling, Economic Policy and Methodology, 37–47. London : Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003253457-5.
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Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup, Hamid Raza et Finn Olesen. « Introduction – economics at the edge ». Dans Macroeconomic Modelling, Economic Policy and Methodology, 1–8. London : Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003253457-1.
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Byrialsen, Mikael Randrup, Robert Smith et Finn Olesen. « Sectoral balance analysis ». Dans Macroeconomic Modelling, Economic Policy and Methodology, 199–214. London : Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003253457-15.
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Laurentjoye, Thibault. « Foreign exchange accumulation and the advent of the monetary policy quadrilemma ». Dans Macroeconomic Modelling, Economic Policy and Methodology, 171–98. London : Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003253457-14.
Texte intégralActes de conférences sur le sujet "Macroeconomics – Methodology"
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Alekseeva, Natalya A., Zinaida A. Mironova, Elena V. Alexandrova, Vyacheslav A. Sokolov et Marina V. Mironova. « Structural dynamic shifts in the Russian macroeconomics in the period of global challenges ». Dans Sustainable and Innovative Development in the Global Digital Age. Dela Press Publishing House, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.56199/dpcsebm.spjg4935.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The Russian economy is one of the most influential economies in the world, since it is fully capable of self-sufficiency in basic foodstuffs, exporting food, being a global technological leader in many industries. In recent years, the Russian economy has been facing major external economic and political threats, which makes it necessary to restructure the macroeconomics in order to increase its financial stability and efficiency. The main provisions of the Decree of the President of Russia on the goals of national development until 2030 were considered. The research purpose is to study the transition period in the economy to its more progressive structure in 2016-2019 in terms of the most important components of the gross product: intermediate consumption, value added, exports, imports, trade and transport margins. The research objectives are related to the study of the influencing factors on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators, forecasting further changes. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the assessment of progressive changes in the dynamics and structure of the Russian macroeconomics. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of predicting structural changes based on the identified trends. It is also possible to create a new methodology for assessing the contribution of Russia’s real economy to world trade, based on the presence of signs of its more progressive way of life, high financial stability and efficiency.
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SUKHAREV, Oleg, et Vladimir CHAPLYGIN. « ECONOMIC POLICY OF GROWTH : SELECTION OF INSTITUTES AND TECHNOLOGICAL MODELS OF DEVELOPMENT ». Dans Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.006.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Purpose – to study the possibilities of institutional theory to establish a modern theory of economic growth, including the factors of institutions and technologies changes. These factors are a set of rules with high coercive force to the agents’ action form a particular mode/model of their adaptation, together with other institutions. Research Methodology – the neoclassical models of economic growth, which may include institutional factors and to study their impact on the growth and change of the factors, into the business practice are applied. The key scientific problem is to choose the right market Institute for a proper way of technological development. The authors use the micro-level analysis of the agents and institutions’ interaction in the process of new technologies appearance. Morphological and taxonomic analysis in order to highlight the models of technological development and economic growth had been applied. Findings – the research results may enrich an economic theory and practice in the area of business models applicability. The findings may assist a business community to influence the general technological development within the national institutional systems. Research limitations – due to the fact that different institutions, structures and technologies act on the economic dynamics at the same time, separating their influence is an independent scientific problem that is not solved in all cases. However, the set of considered institutional factors forms and provides a kind of “manufacturability” of economic growth. Practical implications – the so-called institutional macroeconomics as a practical discipline (which has a very close connection with behavioural macroeconomics) may assist to explore the economic growth from the point of view of changing institutions (firms, business community), labour markets and information – technical and technological changes. Originality/Value – the value of the research consists in the systematization of institutional factors affecting the economic growth, conducting a morphological structural analysis of growth types, which allow identifying eight main growth trajectories in business activity.
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Algan, Neşe, Erhan İşcan, Duygu Serin Oktay et Duygu Kara. « Impact of Energy Price Volatility on Macroeconomic Performance ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c08.01892.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Last two decades witnessed increasingly volatile international markets with the many financial crises. Concurrently, volatility in energy prices and energy markets cause various adverse impacts on both national and world economies. Especially this volatility affected emerging markets and increased the fragility of the emerging economies. Because of the adverse impacts of this volatility, understanding the price behavior and impact of volatility of energy prices on economy became crucial for every economic agent in the economy including policy makers in the governments, consumers, and producers. The relationship between energy prices and macroeconomic performance has been studied widely as a consequence its long term macroeconomic impacts to world economies. Differently, the aim of this study is analyzing the effect of energy price volatility on macroeconomic indicators of Turkey. For that purpose, we employed a GARCH model to investigate effect of energy price volatility on macroeconomic performance for Turkey from 2002 to 2016. We use various energy prices and macroeconomic indicators data for the period from January 2002 to December 2016, obtained from the IFS and CBRT-EDDS. By applying GARCH methodology to various energy prices and macroeconomic indicators, we contribute to the understanding of price volatility in energy markets, and suggest policies that would be of use to policy makers in the governments, consumers, and producers.
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Tonovska, Jasna, et Predrag Trpeski. « Capital Flows Volatility and the Macroeconomic Performance – Evidence from Emerging and Developing Economies ». Dans 6th International Scientific Conference – EMAN 2022 – Economics and Management : How to Cope With Disrupted Times. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.31410/eman.s.p.2022.13.
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Volatile capital flows pose serious risks to economic growth and financial stability. This paper investigates the link between economic performance and gross capital flows volatility in emerging market and developing economies (EMDE), and specifically, the extent to which macroprudential policy measures can diminish the detrimental effects of capital flows volatility on growth. For that purpose, we start by constructing volatility estimates for gross capital flows and their subcomponents on a sample of 37 EMDEs, following the methodology by Wang (2019). Then we perform panel regression over the period 2000-2018 incorporating the main variables of interest: economic growth, gross capital inflows volatility and macroprudential policy. The results show that the negative effect of gross capital inflows volatility on growth is significantly mitigated by the implementation of macroprudential policy measures. The results are robust against reverse causality and omitted variables bias.
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Robertas VAITKUS, Robertas VAITKUS, et Asta VASILIAUSKAITĖ. « FINANCIAL SECURITY IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMICS WELFARE ». Dans International Scientific Conference „Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering". Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2021.585.
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Abstract. Purpose – to describe financial security assurance models and assess the possibilities of using them to solve problems to ensure economics welfare. Research methodology – analytic, systematic, generalization and comparative methods are used in this article. Findings – the content of the financial security concept is revealed at the microeconomic and macroeconomic levels, while examining how the selection and implementation of appropriate financial security measures can contribute to sustainable economic prosperity. Research limitations – the consequences of the implementation of the financial security models analyzed in this article are commented on assessing the peculiarities of one country’s national legal system. Practical implications – appropriate solutions for maintaining financial security provided in the strategies of creating economics welfare can help to decrease social exclusion, risks and negative effects of economic crises. Originality/Value – in the article was formulated theoretical models of financial security assurance. The use of these models or combinations of models at microeconomic and macroeconomic levels to incorporate financial security instruments allows policy makers to have a universal toolkit in their arsenal. This enables not only to make decisions more quickly, but also to solve the problems of ensuring economics welfare in a more systematic way.
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LAURINAVIČIUS, Alfredas, Antanas LAURINAVIČIUS et Algimantas LAURINAVIČIUS. « MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES INFLUENCING LIFE SATISFACTION IN THE EU, AND ITS IMPACT ON EMIGRATION ». Dans International Scientific Conference „Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering". Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2021.616.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract. Purpose of the research is to analyse what variables influence subjective well-being (which is measured as overall life satisfaction in the EU) and how it affects population’s decisions on emigration. Research methodology – a correlation between several independent variables and overall life satisfaction is calculated. Then, a correlation between overall life satisfaction and emigration rates is measured. Finally, regression equations are constructed showing how some variables affect the other. Findings – analysis helped to identify key variables which influenced overall life satisfaction and its impact on population’s decisions on emigration. Those key variables include GDP per capita, income inequality and unemployment. Research limitations – to analyse more social phenomena and not only the economic ones would contribute to research development in the future. Moreover, analysis of dynamic aspects would provide deeper insight of relationships. Practical implications – the analysis of emigration problem and the identification of its possible links with life satisfaction will allow economists to assess a priori potential of various measures suggested in practice and, consequently, will allow for more targeted formulation of the economic policy. Originality/Value – scientific analysis of life satisfaction enables to have a new look on emigration problem in theory and practice.
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Dranko, O. I., et A. A. Zakharova. « Express Analysis of Economic Indicators on the Example of the Market of Lighting Equipment and Materials ». Dans 32nd International Conference on Computer Graphics and Vision. Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.20948/graphicon-2022-805-814.
Texte intégralRésumé :
It is important to analyze data on both macroeconomic indicators and industries in a comprehensive manner, processing data from different sources. In this paper, using the example of information on the financial and economic situation and export-import operations of lighting equipment in the regions of Russia, a methodology for data collection and analysis using geographic information technology is presented. The results can be scaled up as part of the expansion of groups of goods, services for a wide range of businesses and industries. Clustering and visualization of the results of data processing on the basis of digital vector maps can improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the analysis of such heterogeneous data and become a decision-making tool. Analysis visualization tools allow you to reduce the time of transition to the formulation of measures for the development of organizations, especially in a rapidly changing economic situation.
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Karadjova, Vera, et Aleksandar Trajkov. « Basic Components and Indicators in Assessing Country Risk (Selected CEFTA Countries) ». Dans Seventh International Scientific-Business Conference LIMEN Leadership, Innovation, Management and Economics : Integrated Politics of Research. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31410/limen.2021.13.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Country risk analysis has become extremely important in contemporary conditions. This paper briefly discusses concepts, definitions, basic components, and some quantitative methods used to address various issues related to country risk in selected CEFTA countries. The paper also presents the indicative calculation of some of the elements and indicators for the selected countries, based on relevant available data, and in order to make a comparative analysis. Having in mind that country risk is a specific and complex macroeconomic risk, its determination and analysis is additionally complicated in terms of contemporary global changes. In fact, that is a risk of a country as a whole, its macroeconomic policy and economic balance or unbalance, political stability or instability of a country, political disturbances and democratic processes, political system and legal system, etc. Therefore, country risk involves several kinds of risks, such as political risk, economic risk, foreign payments risk, financial transfers risk, etc. Globally, all those risks can be divided in three biggest groups: risks of macroeconomic unbalance of the country; risks of the political instability of the country; and risks of the system of the country (system risks). Due to its complexity, the paper will elaborate and quantify some of the basic indicators related to country risk, mostly related to trade exchange between selected countries in the CEFTA agreement. The procedures and methods of country risk analysis and measurement have similarities with those used for individual economic entities, but techniques for the country risk analysis are less developed and there was no generally accepted analysis method. The final assessment may be a combination of many external and internal models that are not mutually exclusive, and in that process can be analyzed a number of different factors that determine country risk. Among the factors that condition the country risk and that are necessary to be included in the analyses can be: country’s foreign-financial position; external debt; debt management; assessment of the natural resources; the degree of technique and technology development, industrialization and automation of production, and so on. The paper will stress as most important indicators in assessing country risk: The Debt Service Ratio, Import ratio, Investment Ratio, Domestic Money Supply Growth, etc., which will be calculated using selected macro-economic data such as: GDP, GDP per capita, Real GDP grow, Inflation (CPI), Fiscal balance (% of GDP), Current account balance (% of GDP), Public debt/GDP (%), External debt/Exports of goods & services (%), Debt-service ratio (%), Foreign exchange reserves, Foreign direct investments (% of GDP), Exchange rate etc. The methodology of collecting and processing information and the degree of reliability of collected data greatly depends on the promptness and accuracy of the national institutions that present those data. The goal of the paper is: to point out the importance of country risk assessment, to determine and compute the basic indicators of country risk in some of the Southeastern Europe countries, to determine conditions and trends of country risk in selected countries, and to suggest some strategies for its reduction in conditions of the unstable environment and crisis disturbances.
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Zhabin, Evgeny A., Elena A. Chumachenko, Anastasia E. Malkhasyan et Qi Zhendong. « Investment by Russian real sector corporations in terms of ensuring national security ». Dans Sustainable and Innovative Development in the Global Digital Age. Dela Press Publishing House, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.56199/dpcsebm.hmfm3532.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In modern economic literature, several strategies for the development of corporations are considered at the theoretical level. However, the strategy of domestic economic activity is not considered as an independent form of strategy or insufficient attention is paid to it. The purpose of the article is to identify strategies for the activities of Russian enterprises based on their annual reports and ratings of Russian analytical agencies. Research objectives are, firstly, the development of a methodology for evaluating the results of activity strategies and, secondly, the analysis of activity strategies as a result of their commodity market, resource market, technological, integration and financial investment strategies. The study conducted revealed the features of strategies of corporations in the national market. According to the results of the analysis, the use of traditional theories in the context of the current financial globalization in a country with a developing economy is ineffective for the formation of an investment strategy. Macroeconomic factors have a strong impact, which is most evident during and after the crisis. The financial crisis has a strong impact on the capital structure. The factor that determines the development of the market has a significant impact on the debt burden and plays an important role in making financial decisions after the financial crisis.
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Melnikas, Borisas. « CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN ECONOMICS ENGINEERING : ECONOMIC GROWTH, DYNAMIC MANAGEMENT, AND TECHNOLOGICAL BREAK-THROUGHS ». Dans Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.007.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Purpose – to prepare, disseminate and implement the new concept of economics engineering, the essence of which is an integrated approach to the problems of economic growth, innovation activities, technological progress, and break-throughs. Research methodology – systematic analysis and synthesis of various scientific ideas and approaches, formulation and analysis of new insights. Findings – a new concept of economics engineering is prepared. This concept provides an integrated approach to the so-lution of the problems of economic growth, innovation activities, technological progress, and breakthroughs, as well as of the application of dynamic management tools. The implementation of this concept in the practice of the economic activ-ities and research creates various preconditions for anticipation and realization of new opportunities for economic devel-opment and technological breakthroughs under contemporary conditions of globalization, European integration and the creation of knowledge-based society and knowledge economy. Research limitations – the proposed concept is limited to the cases of the macroeconomic analysis and preparation of the strategic economic decisions. Practical implications – the proposed concept is usable in various cases of economic policy decisions making. Originality/Value – the new insights and perspective ideas provided for the priorities of the economics engineering sci-ence and of the application of the dynamic management tools, are described and analyzed. Orientation to these insights and ideas highlights new significant trends in the scientific research of economic profile
Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Macroeconomics – Methodology"
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Baluga, Anthony, et Masato Nakane. Maldives Macroeconomic Forecasting :. Asian Development Bank, décembre 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/wps200431-2.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This study aims to build an efficient small-scale macroeconomic forecasting tool for Maldives. Due to significant limitations in data availability, empirical economic modeling for the country can be problematic. To address data constraints and circumvent the “curse of dimensionality,” Bayesian vector autoregression estimations are utilized comprising of component-disaggregated domestic sectoral production, price, and tourism variables. Results demonstrate how this methodology is appropriate for economic modeling in Maldives. With the appropriate level of shrinkage, Bayesian vector autoregressions can exploit the information content of the macroeconomic and tourism variables. Augmenting for qualitative assessments, the directional inclination of the forecasts is improved.
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Méndez-Vizcaíno, Juan C., Alexander Guarín, César Anzola-Bravo et Anderson Grajales-Olarte. Characterizing and Communicating the Balance of Risks of Macroeconomic Forecasts : A Predictive Density Approach for Colombia. Banco de la República, octobre 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1178.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Since July 2021, Banco de la República strengthened its forecasting process and communication instruments, by involving predictive densities on the projections of its models, PATACON and 4GM. This paper presents the main theoretical and empirical elements of the predictive density approach for macroeconomic forecasting. This model-based methodology allows to characterize the balance of risks of the economy, and quantify their effects through a joint probability distribution of forecasts. We estimate this distribution based on the simulation of DSGE models, preserving the general equilibrium relationships and their macroeconomic consistency. We also illustrate the technical criteria used to represent the prospective factors of risk through the probability distributions of shocks.
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Gamboa-Estrada, Fredy, et Jose Vicente Romero. Common and idiosyncratic movements in Latin-American Exchange Rates. Banco de la República, avril 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1158.
Texte intégralRésumé :
We propose a simple theoretical and empirical approach to differentiate between common and idiosyncratic exchange rate movements in 5 Latin-American economies: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. Our approach allows us to distinguish the effects on exchange rates of a regional exchange rate common factor and macroeconomic fundamentals differentials. The methodology and estimation strategy are suitable for both low and high frequency settings. We provide evidence that the regional common factor has a significant effect on the dynamics of the Latin-American exchange rates. In our estimations the relation between exchange rates and the common factor is contemporaneous and stable during the studied period.
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Mader, Philip, Maren Duvendack, Adrienne Lees, Aurelie Larquemin et Keir Macdonald. Enablers, Barriers and Impacts of Digital Financial Services : Insights from an Evidence Gap Map and Implications for Taxation. Institute of Development Studies, juin 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/ictd.2022.008.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Digital financial services (DFS) have expanded rapidly over the last decade, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. They have been accompanied by claims that they can alleviate poverty, empower women, help businesses grow, and improve macroeconomic outcomes and government effectiveness. As they have become more widespread, some controversy has arisen as governments have identified DFS revenues and profits as potential sources of tax revenue. Evidence-based policy in relation to taxing DFS requires an understanding of the enablers and barriers (preconditions) of DFS, as well as the impacts of DFS. This report aims to present insights from an Evidence Gap Map (EGM) on the enablers and barriers, and subsequent impacts, of DFS, including any research related to taxation. An EGM serves to clearly identify the gaps in the evidence base in a visually intuitive way, allowing researchers to address these gaps. This can help to shape future research agendas. Our EGM draws on elements from the systematic review methodology. We develop a transparent set of inclusion criteria and comprehensive search strategy to identify relevant studies, and assess the confidence we can place in their causal findings. An extensive search initially identified 389 studies, 205 of which met the inclusion criteria and were assessed based on criteria of cogency, transparency and credibility. We categorised 40 studies as high confidence, 97 as medium confidence, and 68 as low confidence. We find that the evidence base is still relatively thin, but growing rapidly. The high-confidence evidence base is dominated by quantitative approaches, especially experimental study designs. The geographical focus of many studies is East Africa. The dominant DFS intervention studied is mobile money. The majority of studies focus on DFS usage for payments and transfers; fewer studies focus on savings, very few on credit, and none on insurance. The strongest evidence base on enablers and barriers relates to how user attributes and industry structure affect DFS. Little is known about how policy and politics, including taxation, and macroeconomic and social factors, affect DFS. The evidence base on impacts is strongest at the individual and household level, and partly covers the business level. The impact of DFS on the macroeconomy, and the meso level of industry and government, is very limited. We find no high-confidence evidence on the role of taxation. We need more higher quality evidence on a variety of topics. This should particularly look at enablers, constraints and impacts, including the role of taxation, beyond the individual and household level. Research going forward should cover more geographic areas and a wider range of purposes DFS can serve (use cases), including savings, and particularly credit. More methodological variety should be encouraged – experiments can be useful, but are not the best method for all research questions.