Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Law Invariant Risk Measures »

AbstractAone-to-one correspondence is drawnbetween lawinvariant risk measures and divergences,which we define as functionals of pairs of probability measures on arbitrary standard Borel spaces satisfying a few natural properties. Divergences include many classical information divergence measures, such as relative entropy and convex f -divergences. Several properties of divergence and their duality with law invariant risk measures are characterized, such as joint semicontinuity and convexity, and we notably relate their chain rules or additivity properties with certain notions of time consistency for dynamic law risk measures known as acceptance and rejection consistency. The examples of shortfall risk measures and optimized certainty equivalents are discussed in detail.

AbstractIn this paper, we explore several Fatou-type properties of risk measures. The paper continues to reveal that the strong Fatou property,whichwas introduced in [19], seems to be most suitable to ensure nice dual representations of risk measures. Our main result asserts that every quasiconvex law-invariant functional on a rearrangement invariant space X with the strong Fatou property is (X, L1) lower semicontinuous and that the converse is true on a wide range of rearrangement invariant spaces. We also study inf-convolutions of law-invariant or surplus-invariant risk measures that preserve the (strong) Fatou property.

In this paper, we investigate representation results for set-valued law invariant coherent and convex risk measures, which can be considered as a set-valued extension of the multivariate scalar law invariant coherent and convex risk measures studied in the literature. We further introduce a new class of set-valued risk measures, named set-valued distortion risk measures, which can be considered as a set-valued version of multivariate scalar distortion risk measures introduced in the literature. The relationship between set-valued distortion risk measures and set-valued weighted value at risk is also given.

In this paper we study the asymptotic properties of the canonical plugin estimates for law-invariant coherent risk measures. Under rather mild conditions not relying on the explicit representation of the risk measure under consideration, we first prove a central limit theorem for independent and identically distributed data, and then extend it to the case of weakly dependent data. Finally, a number of illustrating examples is presented.

This thesis is organized in two parts: in the first one, we treat risk measures and acceptability indices from a theoretical point of view, while in the second part, we propose two applications of the quasi-convex results. The first contribute of the thesis regards the dual representation of quasi-convex and monotone maps. In particular, we compare the dual representation proposed by Cerreia-Vioglio et al (2011) and Drapeau and Kupper (2010) and we prove that they coincide. On the light of this comparison, we also propose a new representation for the quasi-concave and monotone acceptability indices. In the second part of the thesis we propose two different applications of the quasi- convex analysis to different sectors. The common idea has been to build a quasi-convex risk measure defining a particular family of acceptability sets, taking inspiration from the papers of Cherny and Madan (2009) and Drapeau and Kupper (2010). The first application is to the financial sector. We introduce a new class of law invariant risk measures, directly defined on the set P(R) of probability measures on R, that are monotone and quasi-convex on P(R). We build these maps by an appropriate family of acceptance sets of distribution functions. We study the properties of such maps and we provide some example. In particular, we propose a generalization of the classical notion of the V@R_λ, called ΛV@R, that takes into account not only the probability λ of the losses, but the balance between such probability and the amount of the loss. The V@R_λ and other known law invariant risk measures turn out to be special cases of our proposal. We further prove the dual representation of Risk Measures on P(R). The second application is to the evaluation of the scientific research. We introduce a new family of scientific performance measures, called Scientific Research Measures (SRM). This proposal originates from the recent developments in the theory of quasi-convex risk measures and is an attempt to resolve the many problems of the existing bibliometric indices. The key idea underlying the definition of SRM is the representation of quasi-concave monotone maps in terms of a family of acceptance sets. Through this approach, the SRMs are: flexible to fit peculiarities of different areas and seniorities; inclusive, as they comprehend several popular indices; coherent, as they share the same structural properties; calibrated to the particular scientific community; granular, as they allow a more precise comparison between scientists and are based on the whole scientist’s citation curve. We also provide a dual representation of a SRM, that suggests a new interesting approach to the whole area of bibliometric indices. Finally, we present a method to compute a particular SRM, called φ-index, and some result obtained by the calibration to a specific scientific sector.

The thesis in the first part examines the notion of risk and describes the process of risk management with emphasis on the identification of emerging threats to civil aviation and on the adoption of new risk handling techniques.
In the second part, the role of law into the airlines' management regime is examined especially in the light of two prima facie conflicting trends: liberalization of market access and increased State involvement in war risk, safety and security issues. Furthermore, the contractual and tortious/delictual exposures of airlines are being scrutinized and the ways to handle them are being analyzed.
The main objectives are (i) to demonstrate that risk management is not restricted to insurance, but involves a number of techniques and procedures that have the potential not only to minimize risk but also to turn risk into opportunity and value and (ii) to identify the role of law as a management tool in the oncoming liberalized aviation environment.

The terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001 had a significant impact upon how governments counter terrorism. The UK introduced and implemented an array of measures, each taking a pre-emptive and preventative approach, to tackle terrorism. The change in counter-terrorism law and policy post-9/11 has, as this thesis will show, increasingly become reliant upon fear-based risk and uncertainty rather than evidence-based guilt. This thesis will examine some of those UK measures used post-9/11, which were seen as some of the more controversial measures. When analysing each measure there will be an assessment of the human rights issues associated with those measures, specifically under Article’s 5 and 6 of the European Convention on Human Rights. The assessment of these rights with each measure will provide a legal understanding of the wider academic and legal implication of those measures, these include the right to a fair trial. Having assessed the human rights implications of each measure, a risk assessment is undertaken. This enables further analysis of each measure and holistically identifies the wider risk implications of such counter terrorism measures. Such risks may include negative perceptions of the police, the UK or provide indirect support for the radicalisation of new terrorists. This process is developed within the thesis and becomes known as the ‘tri-relationship'. Throughout, the measures examined will be seen to erode those human rights principles ordinarily guaranteed by the criminal justice system, for example liberty. Instead, the measures give way to a new counter-terrorism justice system which has become increasingly normalised by the measures introduced and accepted by the courts. This is despite the implications on human rights and risks involved. This thesis will show that the measures introduced by the UK to achieve securitization, fail to achieve the long-term protective aims of the UK Counter-Terrorism Strategy.

Classical partial transport barriers govern both classical and quantum dynamics of generic Hamiltonian systems. Chaotic eigenstates of quantum systems are known to localize on either side of a partial barrier if the flux connecting the two sides is not resolved by means of Heisenberg's uncertainty. Surprisingly, in open systems, in which orbits can escape, chaotic resonance states exhibit such a localization even if the flux across the partial barrier is quantum mechanically resolved. We explain this using the concept of conditionally invariant measures by introducing a new quantum mechanically relevant class of such fractal measures. We numerically find quantum-to-classical correspondence for localization transitions depending on the openness of the system and on the decay rate of resonance states. Moreover, we show that the number of long-lived chaotic resonance states that localize on one particular side of the partial barrier is described by an individual fractal Weyl law. For a generic phase space, this implies a hierarchy of fractal Weyl laws, one for each region of the hierarchical decomposition of phase space.

La notion de risque est doublement incertaine : elle contient une part irréductible d’aléa quant à sa concrétisation en dommage d’une part, elle n’est pas définie par la loi d’autre part. Pourtant, cette lacune est en contradiction, tant avec le recours exponentiel à la notion de risque en droit pénal, qu’il soit de fond ou de forme, qu’avec le principe de légalité des délits et des peines, qui implique que le législateur définisse avec clarté et précision les notions et concepts auxquels il fait appel, de sorte que la légitimité de son usage en droit pénal peut être mise en doute. La présence d’une notion aussi incertaine dans une matière qui met en cause les droits fondamentaux de la personne est susceptible de mettre en péril les impératifs de l’État de droit. Au demeurant, ce droit pénal de l’anticipation, qui vise à prévenir la survenance d’une atteinte possible mais incertaine à une valeur protégée, essuie de nombreuses critiques. L’objet de cette démonstration est donc de savoir si le législateur emploie à bon escient ou non la notion de risque en droit pénal. La réponse à cette problématique nécessitera au préalable, de s’assurer que le droit pénal est effectivement légitime à s’intéresser à la notion de risque. Ce n’est pas parce que le législateur consacre une notion que sa prise en compte est forcément légitime. Plus encore, il faut garder à l’esprit que risque et droit pénal sont par nature contradictoires : le risque est incertain, immatériel et relève de la prévention tandis que le droit pénal est le droit de la répression, de la matérialité et de la certitude. Une étude approfondie de leurs natures respectives permettra néanmoins de dépasser la contradiction, attestant alors de ce que le droit pénal est théoriquement légitime à réceptionner la notion de risque. Cette légitimité n’en reste pas moins précaire. Pour la garantir, il ne pourra s’agir que d’un certain risque, c’est-à-dire un risque pourvu d’une certaine qualité, car le législateur, s’il prétend recourir à la notion de risque en droit pénal pour assurer à la société une protection pénale anticipée, ne peut se départir des principes qui y sont applicables. À partir de l’étude des principes fondamentaux du droit pénal, de ses concepts juridiques et de ses sources supralégislatives, cette recherche se proposera alors d’élaborer une définition pénale de la notion de risque, contenant les critères théoriques d’un risque pénalement saisissable en toute légitimité. Leur confrontation, ensuite, avec le droit positif, permettra de révéler si l’exploitation de la notion de risque par le législateur en droit pénal, fait perdre ou non à ce dernier sa légitimité
The notion of risk is doubly uncertain: it contains an irreducible part of hazard as its realization in damage on the one hand, and its lack of definition by the law on the other. However, this gap is at odds, both with the exponential use of the notion of risk in criminal law, whether substantive or form, and with the principle of legality of offences and sentences, which implies that the legislator defines clearly and precisely the notions and concepts to which it refers. That is the reason why the legitimacy of the use of the notion of risk in criminal law can be questionable. The presence of such an uncertain notion in a field involving the fundamental rights of the person is likely to jeopardize the imperatives of the State of laws. Moreover, the criminal law of anticipation, which aims to prevent the occurrence of possible but uncertain interference with a protected right, is criticized. The purpose of this demonstration is therefore to know whether or not the legislature uses wisely the notion of risk in criminal law. The answer to this issue will previously require to ensure that criminal law is actually legitimate to focus on the notion of risk. This is not because the legislature takes into account a notion that its account is necessarily legitimate. Moreover, it is important to keep in mind that risk and the criminal law are inherently contradictory: the risk is uncertain, immaterial and is linked to the concept of prevention while the criminal law is the right of repression, the materiality and the certainty. A deep study of their respective natures will nevertheless make it possible to overcome the contradiction, stating that the criminal law is theoretically legitimate to accept the notion of risk. This legitimacy stays nonetheless quite precarious. To secure this legitimacy, only a certain kind of risk, a risk with a managed level can be taken into account. If the legislator claims using the notion of risk in criminal law for anticipated criminal protection of society, he still cannot ignore the principles that are applicable in criminal law. From the study of the fundamental principles of criminal law, its legal concepts and its supralegislatives sources, this research will then offer a definition of the notion of risk in criminal law, containing the theoretical criteria of a legitimate criminally detectable risk. Its comparison with positive law, will emphasize whether the use of the notion of risk by the legislator in criminal law, makes him lose or not its legitimacy

This thesis deals with the introduction of information security management system in IT enterprise. It includes theoretical knowledge which are necessary for the understanding of this issue and their application for the analysis of the current state of information security, risk analysis and risk management. Last but not least for the actual implementation of information security management system in the company. The implementation of ISMS was divided into two phases. This thesis details the first phase.

The needs of the free trade regime and governments' legitimate regulatory aims in the area of public health protection conflict. Government health measures create barriers to free trade and are thus disciplined by the trade regime. This conflict is addressed in the rules of the World Trade Organization, in the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. This Agreement uses science to mediate the conflict. The reason for the reliance on science is the view that it provides a neutral, universally-valid discipline and that thus the results of testing health measures for scientific validity would be acceptable to both parties in a dispute. This uncritical approach towards science is called into question. An analysis of the relevant science-based disciplines of the SPS Agreement and their interpretation in WTO dispute settlement shows the flaws in this system. A re-evaluation of the WTO rules governing health regulation is called for.
Law
LL.M.

The needs of the free trade regime and governments' legitimate regulatory aims in the area of public health protection conflict. Government health measures create barriers to free trade and are thus disciplined by the trade regime. This conflict is addressed in the rules of the World Trade Organization, in the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures. This Agreement uses science to mediate the conflict. The reason for the reliance on science is the view that it provides a neutral, universally-valid discipline and that thus the results of testing health measures for scientific validity would be acceptable to both parties in a dispute. This uncritical approach towards science is called into question. An analysis of the relevant science-based disciplines of the SPS Agreement and their interpretation in WTO dispute settlement shows the flaws in this system. A re-evaluation of the WTO rules governing health regulation is called for.
Law
LL.M.

Defence date: 04 October 2008
Examining Board: Prof. Ernst-Ulrich Petersmann (EUI/Supervisor) Prof. Francesco Francioni (EUI) Prof. Joanne Scott (UCL) Prof. Thomas Cottier (University of Bern)
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digital archive of EUI PhD theses
No abstract available

The Internet has had and will continue to have a major impact in the way in which banking business is conducted. This dissertation primarily considers the allocation of risks associated with Internet banking and in doing so considers the role of trade usage in Internet banking. The question of what the Internet is and more specifically what constitutes Internet banking is addressed. In order to have an understanding of the allocation of risks in Internet banking a good understanding of the traditional bank-customer relationship is necessary. The contractual basis for this relationship is discussed. The duties of the bank and the customer are discussed. In this regard the duty of a bank to act in terms of its customers mandate, the banks duty of confidentiality and the customers duty to exercise reasonable care are considered. The concept of a customer is briefly discussed. As trade usage plays a significant role in the contract between the bank and its customer, attention is given to the requirement for the recognition of a trade usage generally and more particularly in South Africa. The effect of Internet banking on the traditional bank-customer relationship is considered. The fact that a bank is still required to act in terms of its customer's mandate but is unable to identify is examined. As most Internet banking contracts impose an obligation on the customer to take security precautions and also limit the liability of banks, consideration is finally given to the possibility that the practices of banks in regard to Internet banking may have acquired the status of trade usage in this particular sphere of banking.
LL.M. (Banking Law)

AbstractBy purchasing political risk insurance (PRI), investors can successfully strengthen their position in the host state, allocating the burden of political risk to third parties (insurance agencies). PRI is provided by international organisations, such as the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) and state-sponsored insurance agencies, known as export credit agencies (ECAs) or public insurance agencies. This chapter focuses on the insurance schemes of NEXI, Japan’s officially sponsored ECA, which plays a dominant role in providing PRI to Japanese nationals. The benefits of insurance agencies providing PRI schemes go beyond cash indemnification. PRI mechanisms include various policy requirements, operational conditions, and performance standards that not only influence the engagement of the insured investors, but also shape the regulatory authority of host governments and affect local communities. PRI plays a particularly crucial role in the governance of energy projects due to the complexity of this sector and its importance to states and local communities. However, there are policy and operational implications of PRI provision in the governance of energy projects with an adverse effect on local communities. In response, most insurance agencies like NEXI, have taken measures for socially and environmentally responsible investments, requiring their insured clients to comply with various social and environmental standards and establishing surveillance mechanisms and in-house grievance facilities. Even if these practices are moving in the right direction, their true functionality and effectiveness have not yet been proved.

AbstractThe chapter presents an overview of key labour law institutions, aiming at discussing the importance of the gender perspective in labour law. Therefore, the introductory section of the chapter will put this issue into the context of historical and conceptual framework genesis of regulating employment relationships. These issues are connected with the legal subordination and economic dependence of employees, which produce the need to create and implement norms that protect employees, as a weaker party to the employment relationship. This includes the limitation of employers’ (managerial, normative and disciplinary) prerogatives, in order to create the conditions for effective enjoyment of the right of jobseekers and employees for protection against gender-based discrimination. The labour law is, in this regard, traditionally conceived according to the model of a male worker, who is employed on the basis of a standard employment contract (open-ended full time employment contract). This then results in a failure to recognise or provide sufficient consideration of the specific needs that women have as participants in the labour market. The use of the feminist method, which included the understanding of gender as an analytical category in the field of labour law, opened up a new set of labour law issues. For example, in easing the ban on women working in physically demanding jobs, and the conceptualisation of the need to reconcile the professional and family duties of employees.. On the other hand, contemporary labour law, when creating conditions for achieving gender equality, is aimed primarily at women’s empowerment in the world of work. Persisting with this approach can lead to an oversimplified understanding of the principle of gender equality, ignoring the special needs of men in the world of work, as well as ignoring the importance of their role for consistent implementation of the principle of gender equality and women’s empowerment. The second section of the chapter will provide analysis of gender-based discrimination during the hiring process. Other sections will cover the risk of gender-based discrimination regarding rights, obligations and duties deriving from employment relationship, labour law measures to encourage improvements in the occupational safety and health, work-life balance for parents and caregivers, sexual harassment at work and promotion of gender equality in collective labour law.

AbstractThis chapter examines the complex relationship between social enterprises and taxation. The focus is not on a specific country, although various examples are mentioned. As specific tax measures for social enterprises are a form of tax incentives, the chapter discusses this public finance concept. In addition, an important legal constraint on introducing such incentives for social enterprises in the European Union (EU) is discussed: the prohibition of state aid. From an analysis of the taxation of profits of social enterprises, it turns out that only a few countries have implemented tax incentives to further social enterprise models. Some social enterprises may meet the charity definition and thus benefit from tax incentives for charities. The drawback might be that it may require social enterprises to use next best legal forms. The chapter also discusses the relevant tax aspects for funders of social enterprises. Tax rules can especially be detrimental to the funding of high-risk social enterprises. Social enterprises also encounter value-added tax (VAT) issues. The VAT that applies in the EU has been copied (with variations) by many non-EU Member States. For that reason, this chapter focusses on the EU VAT legislation as included in the VAT. Problems emerging from the impossibility to deduct input VAT can best be solved outside the VAT framework.

AbstractIn the following chapter the author traces the technical improvements in vehicle safety over recent decades, including new sensor technologies with image recognition and Artificial Intelligence, factoring in growing consumer expectations. Through Federal Court of Justice rulings on product liability and economic risks, he depicts requirements that car manufacturers must meet. For proceedings from the first idea until development to sign-off, he recommends interdisciplinary, harmonized safety and testing procedures. He argues for further development of current internationally agreed-upon standards including tools, methodological descriptions, simulations, and guiding principles with checklists. These will represent and document the practiced state of science and technology, which has to be implemented technically suited and economically reasonable. Dilemma situations have always served to clarify ethical and legal principles, such as in the famous example of the so-called “trolley case”. The answer of the law is clear: the killing of a human being with the intention of saving others from certain death may be excused in a concrete case, but it remains illegal in any case. The solution is to avoid accidents at any rate by adapting and forward-looking driving. Relevant maneuvers of driving robots have to be defined and assessed for example using accident data and virtual methods. Further investigation of real driving situations in comparison with system specifications with tests on proving grounds, car clinics, field tests, human driver training or special vehicle studies are recommended. For the required exchange of information, storage of vehicle data and possible criminal attacks protective technical measures are necessary.

This chapter uses the abundance of high frequency data to estimate scaling law models and then apply appropriately scaled measures to provide long-term market risk forecasts. The objective is to analyse extreme price movements from tick-by-tick real-time data to trace the footprints of traders that eventually form the overall movement of market prices (price coastline) and potential bubbles. The framework is applied to empirical limit order book data from the London Stock Exchange. The sample period ranges from June 2007 to June 2008 and covers the start of the subprime crisis that later escalated into the economic crisis. After extracting the scaling exponent and checking its robustness with bootstrap simulations, the authors investigate longer term price movements in more detail, making use of the scale invariance property of the scaling law. In particular, they provide financial risk forecasts for a testing period and compare these with the popular Value-at-Risk and expected tail loss measures, showing the outperformance of the scaling law approach. Finally, a set of simulations are run to explore which scaling exponent is more likely to trigger market turbulence.

Generally speaking, civil liability can be avoided if the exercised care matches potentiality and significance of the risk. Therefore, the greater the risk, the greater care should accordingly be exercised. When determining the level of such required care, the availability and extent of precautionary measures is evaluated. However, it is a common occurrence in Latvian case law that the strict liability is effectively disguised as a fault-based liability. Namely, the courts require that the precautionary measures are taken to such an extent that the tortfeasor‘s general duty of care is in essence transformed into a duty not to cause any damage at all, thus making analysis of the taken precautionary measures hardly relevant. Given that the implementation of precautionary measures usually comes at a price, the existing case law has stepped into a dangerous territory where persons are required to over-invest their resources in order to avoid civil liability. In this article, the author argues that in the fault-based liability model any precautionary measures shall generally be taken only if the cost of their implementation is lower than the cost of the potential risk.

The official report of The Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission concluded that “The TEPCO Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident was the result of collusion between the government, the regulators and TEPCO, and the lack of governance by said parties. They effectively betrayed the nation’s right to be safe from nuclear accidents. Therefore, we conclude that the accident was clearly ‘manmade.’ We believe that the root causes were the organizational and regulatory systems that supported faulty rationales for decisions and actions, rather than issues relating to the competency of any specific individual.” This wakeup call for the nuclear power utilities should require a public review of their relationship with of regulators. However, severe accident related risk reduction is a relatively uncharted territory and given the apparent lack of in-house technical expertise, the regulators are heavily relying on the qualitative and ‘hand waving’ arguments being presented by the utilities inherently disinterested in further investments they are not required to make under original license conditions. As a result, it has accelerated further deterioration of the safety culture and emboldened many within the regulatory staff to undertake or support otherwise questionable decisions in support of the utilities that prefer status quo. Case in point is the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) which mostly accepts any and all requests by the nuclear power industry. After Fukushima, the CNSC took a year to publish a set of ‘Action Items’ for the Canadian Nuclear industry to prepare plans over 3 years and then accepted most if not all submissions that in many cases barely addressed the already watered down recommendations. In some cases the solutions proposed by the industry were economically expedient but technically flawed; and some could even be considered dangerous. CNSC also published a study on consequences of a severe accident with a source term that was limited to the desirable safety goal (100 TBq of Cs-137), which coincidently years later matched the utility ‘calculations’, but orders of magnitude smaller than predicted by independent evaluations. As a result, some well publicized conclusions on the benign nature of consequences of a CANDU severe accident were made and the local and provincial agencies that actually are supposed to prepare off-site emergency measures were left with an incorrect picture of what havoc a severe accident can cause otherwise. CNSC then published a much publicized video highlighting the available operator actions to terminate the accident early and later a report outlining the accident progression for a severe accident without operator action with conclusions that were immediately technically suspect from a variety of aspects. The aim was to claim that a severe core damage accident has no unfavorable off-site consequences. The regulator effectively, in this case, comes across as a promoter for the industry it is legislated to regulate. The paper outlines examples of actions being taken by the regulators that hinder development of effective risk reduction measures by the industry which otherwise would be forced to undertake them if the regulators had not stepped on the plate to bat for them. They vary from letters to editors to silence any safety concerns raised by the public, muzzling of its own staff, trying to silence external specialists who question their wisdom on to blatant disregard for any intervention by public they are required to entertain by law but are accustomed to factually ignore or belittle. The paper also outlines a number of examples of actions that an independent regulator would undertake to reduce the risk and enhance the safety culture. The nuclear regulatory regimes work well generally but in cases where it does not, the results can be disastrous as evident from the events in Japan and as is building up in Canada. The paper also summarizes the disparities between the number of Regulatory Actions instituted by the CNSC against small companies that use nuclear substances for industrial applications and almost none actions against the nuclear power plant utilities it regularly grants a pass in spite of the larger risk their operations pose to public.

Preventing the risk of accidents and fires with hazardous substances limits their consequences for human life and health, as well as for the environment in general. Therefore, an assessment of compliance with the necessary regulatory criteria and documentation of the classification of chemicals and preparations is needed. The purpose of this study is to perform an analysis of regulatory requirements related to chemicals and mixtures and to present a methodology for assessing and managing their compatibility during storage according to their hazard class. The adopted safety measures and requirements are aimed at ensuring the safety of the storage of hazardous chemicals and materials, because they cause many hazards to both human health and the environment. This material is aimed at business operators related to the transport and storage of dangerous goods, as well as companies that use and store chemicals as raw materials for the production of their chemical products.

As large offshore drilling facility, Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) faces with the risk of oil & gas leakage and subsequent effects (e.g. fire and explosion). In order to assess FPSO gas leakage and subsequent chain effects risk scientifically, a FPSO topsides is analyzed, and Failure Model and Effect Analysis (FMEA) method is applied to find out which equipment has high Risk Priority Number (RPN). The results show that gas washing pry of FPSO in operation phase has high RPN and needs significant attention. In this paper, CFD-model of FPSO topsides is established based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) theory. The leak rate of gas with specified hole diameter is calculated based on appropriate leak source model according to the actual operating conditions of gas washing pry. Then based on the simulation results diffusion behavior is analyzed, as well as distribution law of gas and the hazardous area of gas of gas washing pry under the leakage conditions. Furthermore, one explosion model is selected, and then damaging over-pressure of explosion on each equipment surface and the variation trend and influence scope of explosion over-pressure are derived to evaluate personnel and equipment risk. Targeted technical measures will be put forward to reduce risk.

According to the World Health Organization, human safety is based on the development of the individual, understanding the safety of all situations in their daily lives, including safety at school. Consideringthat approximately 80% of school-age children and adolescents attend schools, they have taken on a fundamental role in promoting health and preventing accidents, especially in the school environment. Incidents in the school space occur frequently, most ofthe time, teachers and school employees do not notice risk situations and may even contribute to the aggravation of injured students, since they were not trained to intervene in such emergency demands. The Lucas Law appears in this scenario with the purpose of training teachers and employees, from public and private schools, to provide first aid, avoiding possible accidents. Therefore, this pilot study aimed to train teachers of Kindergarten at a private school in the city of Campos dos Goytacazes-RJ, according to the Lucas Law, on the initial measures of first aid. To carry out this pilot study, training was initially carried out on the Lucas Law, with verbal exposition and demonstration of initial first aid measures, through four theoretical-practical videos with 12 teachers. Soon after, the pre-test questionnaire was applied, with closed and semi-open questions related to the training content, and after 10 days, the post-test questionnaire was applied. Data analysis was performed using descriptive statistics in the SPSS® software, comparing the pre-test and post-test results. It was verified, in the pre-test, 17.5% of correct answers, while in the post-test it reached 83%. Thus, it is concluded that the pilot study made it possible not only to verify the effectiveness of training in the training of teachers, but also the need to carry out training such as this to encourage the autonomy of teachers in cases of accidents and, consequently, favor school safety.

Last year the Europe and world were facing with COVID-19 outbreak that put at the risk lives of the people and capability of healthcare systems to provide their services. To prevent spread of the COVID-19 governments have imposed restrictive measures, while some of them declared state of emergency. The response to the pandemic influenced on the functioning of the criminal justice system and daily operation of courts, but also on the substantive criminal law since some states are applying criminal law to violation of restrictive measures or to criminalizing disinformation on COVID-19 outbreak. Outbreak of COVID-19 revealed new trends in criminal law like accelerated introduction of new crimes during pandemic, extremely flexible interpretation and rapid changes of criminal laws, which tend to be threat for legal stability and human rights protection. In addition, populist governments tend to use that new trend as a tool in suppression of political dissidents. COVID-19 pandemic has posed unprecedent challenges to the functioning of judiciaries. Courts and prosecution services were working with limited capacities to ensure social distancing. Some countries introduced ICT tools and fast-track procedures to organize hearings, which raised question of procedural rights and protection of rights of defendant. In the article authors assessed whether derogation of fair trial rights was in the line with standards of international human rights law and if introduction of state of emergency and restrictions were proportionate, time limited and needed and whether they changed understanding of the fundamental rights protection, especially right to a fair trial. Furthermore, authors explore whether COVID 19 changed perception of criminal law and legal certainty. Authors assessed how restrictions in the organization of judiciary work influenced on human rights protection and citizens trust in judiciary. Consequently, authors assesses whether some of introduces changes, especially use of ICT tools made permanent changes in operation of courts and understanding of access to justice. Finally, authors are assessing whether these changes tend to erode judiciaries or put into the risk access to justice in the EU members states and candidate countries or whether they jeopardized EU principle of mutual trust.

Abstract With the continuous increase of offshore oil and gas exploitation activities, the number of subsea pipelines is becoming larger and larger, which leads to frequent occurrence of subsea pipeline accidents. Long-term safe operation of subsea pipelines can be ensured by regular defect detection. The premise of locating and disposing defects is to accurately measure the geographic coordinates of subsea pipelines. Our research group has put forward a kind of pipeline spherical internal detector (SD), which has the advantages of convenient implementation, low risk to jam. For the SD, this paper has carried out research on the key technology of precise measurement of subsea pipelines’ geographic coordinates using the internal magnetic fields. The main work is as follows: (1) Magnetic tensor invariant calibration method for magnetometer array has been studied and L-M algorithm is taken to solve the parameters, which is efficient and accurate. Field calibration experiment has proved this method is effective and has good robustness. (2) A new method of measuring pipeline’s pitch angle is proposed. Under the experimental condition of using AC servo motor to drive the sensor instead of the SD to rotate, the pitch angle measurement error is less than 0.2°. (3) Magnetic anomaly of spiral weld and buckling pipeline are used as new mark points to calibrate the geographic coordinates of subsea pipelines. Experimental results show that the newly designed SD can successfully identify spiral welds and buckling pipeline.

COVID-19 caught humanity off guard at the turn of 2019/2020. Even when the Chinese government sealed off Wuhan, a city of millions, for weeks to contain the epidemic, no one in other parts of the world had any idea of what specifically was heading for the countries. The ignorant and belittling public statements and tweets of the former US president are still fresh in everyone's memory. Only when the Italian army carried the coffins with the COVID-19 victims in northern Italy, the gravesites spread in the Bergamo region, as well as the intensive care beds filled in the overcrowded hospitals, the countries of the European Union and other parts of the world realised how serious the situation threatened to become. Together with the World Health Organisation (WHO), the terms changed to pandemic. Much of the pandemic evoked reminiscences originating in the Black Death raging between 1346 and 1353 or in the Spanish flu after the First World War. Meanwhile, life went on. The administration of justice in criminal cases could not and should not come to a standstill. Emergency measures, such as those that began to emerge in February 2020, are always the hour of the executive. In their efforts to stop the spread of the virus, in Germany, governments particularly reflected on criminal proceedings. Neither criminal procedural law nor the courts and court administrations applying this procedural law were adequately prepared for the challenges. Deadlines threatened to expire, access to court buildings and halls had to be restricted to reduce the risk of infection, public hearings represented a potential source of infection for both the parties to the proceedings and the public, virtual criminal hearings via conference calls had not yet been tested in civil proceedings, but were legally possible, but not so in criminal cases. The taking of evidence in criminal cases in Germany is governed by the rules of strict evidence and is largely not at the disposal of the parties to the proceedings. Especially in criminal cases, fundamental and human rights guarantees serve to protect the accused, but also the victims and witnesses. Executive measures of pandemic containment might impact these guarantees. Here, an attempt will be made to discuss at some neuralgic points how Germany has attempted to balance the resulting contradictory interests in the conflict between pandemic control and constitutional requirements for criminal court proceedings.

The environmental crisis is increasing risks to security and peace worldwide, notably in countries that are already fragile. Indicators of insecurity such as the number of conflicts, the number of hungry people and military expenditure are rising; so are indicators of environmental decline, in climate change, biodiversity, pollution and other areas. In combination, the security and environmental crises are creating compound, cascading, emergent, systemic and existential risks. Without profound changes of approach by institutions of authority, risks will inevitably proliferate quickly. Environment of Peace surveys the evolving risk landscape and documents a number of developments that indicate a pathway to solutions––in international law and policy, in peacekeeping operations and among non-governmental organizations. It finds that two principal avenues need to be developed: (a) combining peace-building and environmental restoration, and (b) effectively addressing the underlying environmental issues. It also analyses the potential of existing and emerging pro-environment measures for exacerbating risks to peace and security. The findings demonstrate that only just and peaceful transitions to more sustainable practices can be effective––and show that these transitions also need to be rapid.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.