Articles de revues : « Invasion probability »

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ZHOU, PENG, XIONG ZHAO HE, CHEN CHEN et QIAO WANG. « Effect of age and density on dispersal probability and distance in Tetranychus ludeni Zacher ». Zoosymposia 22 (30 novembre 2022) : 122. http://dx.doi.org/10.11646/zoosymposia.22.1.74.

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Dispersal strategies of species can affect its invasion success. Investigation into the dispersal strategies of invasive species in relation to different factors facilitates our understanding of the invasion mechanisms and provides knowledge for population management and invasion evaluation.

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Coufal, Oldřich, Iveta Selingerová, Pavlína Vrtělová, Petr Krsička, Lucie Gabrielová, Pavel Fabian, Kateřina Stískalová, Monika Schneiderová, Alexandr Poprach et Ivan Justan. « A Simple Model to Assess the Probability of Invasion in Ductal Carcinoma In Situ of the Breast Diagnosed by Needle Biopsy ». BioMed Research International 2014 (2014) : 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/480840.

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Objectives. The aim of the study was to develop a clinical prediction model for assessing the probability of having invasive cancer in the definitive surgical resection specimen in patients with biopsy diagnosis of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast, to facilitate decision making regarding axillary surgery.Methods. In 349 women with DCIS, predictors of invasion in the definitive resection specimen were identified. A model to predict the probability of invasion was developed and subsequently simplified to divide patients into two risk categories. The model’s performance was validated on another patient population.Results. Multivariate logistic regression revealed four independent predictors of invasion: (i) suspicious (micro)invasion in the biopsy specimen; (ii) visibility of the lesion on ultrasonography; (iii) size of the lesion on mammography >30 mm; (iv) clinical palpability of the lesion. The actual frequency of invasion in the high-risk patient group in the test and validation population was 52.6% and 48.3%, respectively; in the low-risk group it was 16.8% and 7.1%, respectively.Conclusion. The model proved to have good performance. In patients with a low probability of invasion, an axillary procedure can be omitted without a substantial risk of additional surgery.

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Neri, Franco M., Francisco J. Pérez-Reche, Sergei N. Taraskin et Christopher A. Gilligan. « Heterogeneity in susceptible–infected–removed (SIR) epidemics on lattices ». Journal of The Royal Society Interface 8, n^o 55 (14 juillet 2010) : 201–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2010.0325.

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The percolation paradigm is widely used in spatially explicit epidemic models where disease spreads between neighbouring hosts. It has been successful in identifying epidemic thresholds for invasion, separating non-invasive regimes, where the disease never invades the system, from invasive regimes where the probability of invasion is positive. However, its power is mainly limited to homogeneous systems. When heterogeneity (environmental stochasticity) is introduced, the value of the epidemic threshold is, in general, not predictable without numerical simulations. Here, we analyse the role of heterogeneity in a stochastic susceptible–infected–removed epidemic model on a two-dimensional lattice. In the homogeneous case, equivalent to bond percolation, the probability of invasion is controlled by a single parameter, the transmissibility of the pathogen between neighbouring hosts. In the heterogeneous model, the transmissibility becomes a random variable drawn from a probability distribution. We investigate how heterogeneity in transmissibility influences the value of the invasion threshold, and find that the resilience of the system to invasion can be suitably described by two control parameters, the mean and variance of the transmissibility. We analyse a two-dimensional phase diagram, where the threshold is represented by a phase boundary separating an invasive regime in the high-mean, low-variance region from a non-invasive regime in the low-mean, high-variance region of the parameter space. We thus show that the percolation paradigm can be extended to the heterogeneous case. Our results have practical implications for the analysis of disease control strategies in realistic heterogeneous epidemic systems.

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Gordon, Doria R., S. Luke Flory, Aimee L. Cooper et Sarah K. Morris. « Assessing the Invasion Risk ofEucalyptusin the United States Using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment ». International Journal of Forestry Research 2012 (2012) : 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/203768.

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Many agricultural species have undergone selection for traits that are consistent with those that increase the probability that a species will become invasive. However, the risk of invasion may be accurately predicted for the majority of plant species tested using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA). This system has been tested in multiple climates and geographies and, on average, correctly identifies 90% of the major plant invaders as having high invasion risk, and 70% of the noninvaders as having low risk. We used this tool to evaluate the invasion risk of 38Eucalyptustaxa currently being tested and cultivated in the USA for pulp, biofuel, and other purposes. We predict 15 taxa to have low risk of invasion, 14 taxa to have high risk, and 9 taxa to require further information. In addition to a history of naturalization and invasiveness elsewhere, the traits that significantly contribute to a high invasion risk conclusion include having prolific seed production and a short generation time. Selection against these traits should reduce the probability that eucalypts cultivated in the USA will become invasive threats to natural areas and agricultural systems.

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Petsinis, Petros, Andreas Pavlogiannis et Panagiotis Karras. « Maximizing the Probability of Fixation in the Positional Voter Model ». Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 37, n^o 10 (26 juin 2023) : 12269–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v37i10.26446.

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The Voter model is a well-studied stochastic process that models the invasion of a novel trait A (e.g., a new opinion, social meme, genetic mutation, magnetic spin) in a network of individuals (agents, people, genes, particles) carrying an existing resident trait B. Individuals change traits by occasionally sampling the trait of a neighbor, while an invasion bias δ ≥ 0 expresses the stochastic preference to adopt the novel trait A over the resident trait B. The strength of an invasion is measured by the probability that eventually the whole population adopts trait A, i.e., the fixation probability. In more realistic settings, however, the invasion bias is not ubiquitous, but rather manifested only in parts of the network. For instance, when modeling the spread of a social trait, the invasion bias represents localized incentives. In this paper, we generalize the standard biased Voter model to the positional Voter model, in which the invasion bias is effectuated only on an arbitrary subset of the network nodes, called biased nodes. We study the ensuing optimization problem, which is, given a budget k, to choose k biased nodes so as to maximize the fixation probability of a randomly occurring invasion. We show that the problem is NP-hard both for finite δ and when δ → ∞ (strong bias), while the objective function is not submodular in either setting, indicating strong computational hardness. On the other hand, we show that, when δ → 0 (weak bias), we can obtain a tight approximation in O(n^2ω ) time, where ω is the matrix-multiplication exponent. We complement our theoretical results with an experimental evaluation of some proposed heuristics.

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Wang, Hsiao-Hsuan, et William E. Grant. « Determinants of Chinese and European Privet (Ligustrum sinense and Ligustrum vulgare) Invasion and Likelihood of Further Invasion in Southern U.S. Forestlands ». Invasive Plant Science and Management 5, n^o 4 (décembre 2012) : 454–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1614/ipsm-d-12-00038.1.

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AbstractChinese and European privets are among the most aggressive invasive shrubs in forestlands of the southern United States. We analyzed extensive field data collected by the U.S. Forest Service covering 12 states to identify potential determinants of invasion and to predict likelihood of further invasion under a variety of possible management strategies. Results of multiple logistic regression, which classified 75% of the field plots correctly with regard to species presence and absence, indicated probability of invasion is correlated positively with elevation, adjacency (within 300 m) to waterbodies, mean extreme maximum temperature, site productivity, species diversity, natural regeneration, wind disturbance, animal disturbance, and private land ownership and is correlated negatively with slope, stand age, site preparation, artificial regeneration, distance to the nearest road, fire disturbance, and public land ownership. Habitats most at risk to further invasion (likelihood of invasion > 10%) under current conditions occur throughout Mississippi, with a band stretching eastward across south-central Alabama, and in eastern Texas and western Louisiana. Invasion likelihoods could be reduced most by conversion to public land ownership, followed by site preparation, fire disturbance, artificial regeneration, and elimination of animal disturbance. While conversion of land ownership may be neither feasible nor desirable, this result emphasizes the opportunity for reducing the likelihood of invasions on private lands via increased use of selected management practices.

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Barasa, Bernard, Cosmas Walyaula Watsusi, Paul Makoba Gudoyi, Noah Lutaaya, Loy Turyabanawe Gumisiriza et John Paul Magaya. « Desert Locust Invasion in Uganda : Effects on Household Food Consumption and Effective Control Interventions ». Sustainability 15, n^o 19 (5 octobre 2023) : 14496. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su151914496.

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Desert locust invasions are still a danger to the well-being of natural and man-made ecosystems in the tropics. This study examined desert locust invasion duration, survival probability, and control as well as their effects on household food item consumption in the drylands of Uganda. Primary socioeconomic data were collected using various methods (household survey, focus group discussion, and key informant interviews) in May/June 2020 to document the perceptions of households regarding locusts. Our findings reveal that the most significant drivers of desert locust invasions were rainfall, surface temperature, strong winds, soil moisture, soil type, and vegetation type (p ≤ 0.05). The locusts lasted between 3 and 4 weeks. The survival probability of locusts beyond 1 week was 90%. There were significant differences in the day’s food items consumed before and after the locust invasion, except for ground nuts and cashew nuts (p ≤ 0.05). The number of days per month the food items were consumed decreased after the locust invasion. The most effective locust control measure undertaken was the use of ground and aerial pesticide spraying. The major sources of desert locust control information were radio and television. This information is a prerequisite in desert locust invasion preparedness, response, and recovery but can also strengthen sustainable green economy efforts, especially in fragile semi-arid ecosystems.

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Roloson, Scott D., Kyle M. Knysh, Michael R. S. Coffin, Karen L. Gormley, Christina C. Pater et Michael R. van den Heuvel. « Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) habitat overlap with wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in natural streams : do habitat and landscape factors override competitive interactions ? » Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 75, n^o 11 (novembre 2018) : 1949–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2017-0342.

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The purpose of this study was to update rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) invasion status, delineate factors that increase the invasion probability, and quantify habitat overlap between invasive rainbow trout and native Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) on Prince Edward Island, Canada. Analysis of landscape-level variables in 26 watersheds (14 with and 12 without rainbow trout) demonstrated that watershed slope, percent agricultural land use, and distance to the nearest rainbow trout population significantly increased the probability of rainbow trout establishment. Two independent reach-level fish community surveys were conducted by electrofishing in combination with habitat surveys. Reaches with rainbow trout had higher stream slope, Atlantic salmon were found in wider reaches with larger substrate, and brook trout were typically dominant in headwater reaches with finer substrate. Findings at multiple ecological scales illustrated that rainbow trout invasion success is positively influenced by the presence of high-slope habitat. Habitat separation of the three salmonid species indicates that competition with introduced rainbow trout may not be the most significant threat to native salmonid populations.

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Najafi, M. N., Z. Moghaddam, M. Samadpour et Nuno A. M. Araújo. « Invasion sandpile model ». Journal of Statistical Mechanics : Theory and Experiment 2020, n^o 7 (9 juillet 2020) : 073205. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/ab96b4.

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Liu, Zhuo, Liwei Li, Peng Hong, Guodong Zhu, Shiying Tang, Xun Zhao, Qiming Zhang et al. « A Predictive Model for Tumor Invasion of the Inferior Vena Cava Wall Using Multimodal Imaging in Patients with Renal Cell Carcinoma and Inferior Vena Cava Tumor Thrombus ». BioMed Research International 2020 (6 octobre 2020) : 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/9530618.

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Purpose. Developed a preoperative prediction model based on multimodality imaging to evaluate the probability of inferior vena cava (IVC) vascular wall invasion due to tumor infiltration. Materials and Methods. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 110 patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) with level I-IV tumor thrombus who underwent radical nephrectomy and IVC thrombectomy between January 2014 and April 2019. The patients were categorized into two groups: 86 patients were used to establish the imaging model, and the data validation was conducted in 24 patients. We measured the imaging parameters and used logistic regression to evaluate the uni- and multivariable associations of the clinical and radiographic features of IVC resection and established an image prediction model to assess the probability of IVC vascular wall invasion. Results. In all of the patients, 46.5% (40/86) had IVC vascular wall invasion. The residual IVC blood flow (OR 0.170 [0.047-0.611]; P = 0.007 ), maximum coronal IVC diameter in mm (OR 1.203 [1.065-1.360]; P = 0.003 ), and presence of bland thrombus (OR 3.216 [0.870-11.887]; P = 0.080 ) were independent risk factors of IVC vascular wall invasion. We predicted vascular wall invasion if the probability was >42% as calculated by: Ln Pre / 1 − pre = 0.185 × maximum cornal IVC diameter + 1.168 × bland thrombus – 1.770 × residual IVC blood flow – 5.857 . To predict IVC vascular wall invasion, a rate of 76/86 (88.4%) was consistent with the actual treatment, and in the validation patients, 21/26 (80.8%) was consistent with the actual treatment. Conclusions. Our model of multimodal imaging associated with IVC vascular wall invasion may be used for preoperative evaluation and prediction of the probability of partial or segmental IVC resection.

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Junaedi, Decky Indrawan, et Zaenal Mutaqien. « Predicting Invasion Probability from Botanic Gardens using Exotic Species Traits ». Biosaintifika : Journal of Biology & ; Biology Education 10, n^o 3 (19 décembre 2018) : 539–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/biosaintifika.v10i3.15500.

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Preventative management, such as framework-based assessment, considered as the best option for invasive species management. Alternatively, risk assessment can be conducted based on traits of occurred invasive species to build prediction system for invasive risk assessment. This study aimed to test whether trait-based assessment system can differentiate the escaped from non-escaped exotic collections of botanic gardens and to compare the reliability of trait-based versus framework-based risk assessment on differentiating these escaped from non-escaped exotics. In this study, Bayesian logistic regression analysis was conducted to assess the reliability of framework-based and trait-based risk assessment systems. For trait-based system, clear effect of leaf trait, height, and dispersal method to escape probability was detected. For framework-based system, clear effect of Tropical Weed Risk Assessment Protocol on escape probability was detected. Leaf trait, dispersal method and height are reliable predictors for escaped probability of botanic gardens exotic collection. The fact that the reliability of trait-based assessment systems is better than the commonly used framework-based system is the main novel finding in this study. This finding implies that trait-based is better than framework-based for invasive species risk assessment approach in Indonesian botanic gardens. Trait-based assessment also a relevant tool to support management with limited resources to conduct adequate early risk assessment.

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Angel, Omer, Jesse Goodman, Frank den Hollander et Gordon Slade. « Invasion percolation on regular trees ». Annals of Probability 36, n^o 2 (mars 2008) : 420–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-aop346.

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Zhou, Peng, Xiong Z. He, Chen Chen et Qiao Wang. « Age and Density of Mated Females Affect Dispersal Strategies in Spider Mite Tetranychus ludeni Zacher ». Insects 15, n^o 6 (27 mai 2024) : 387. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/insects15060387.

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The dispersal strategies of a species can affect its invasion success. Investigations into the dispersal strategies of invasive species in relation to different factors help improve our understanding of invasion mechanisms and provide knowledge for population management and invasion evaluation. Tetranychus ludeni Zacher (Acari: Tetranychidae) is an invasive species which is native to Europe but is now cosmopolitan. Here, we examined the effects of age and density on dispersal in mated females. Our results show that older females that are capable of producing more eggs within 24 h were more likely to disperse and moved longer distances than younger ones with fewer eggs. Older females spread most of their eggs out of their natal habitats and over longer distances, which reduced competition and increased offspring fitness. Females exhibited significantly increased dispersal probability and distances with an increase in population density to avoid crowding. The synchronization of dispersal and reproduction, along with the positive density-dependent dispersal strategy, may facilitate the habitat colonization and invasion speed of T. ludeni.

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Chiou, Chyi-Rong, Hsiao-Hsuan Wang, Yen-Jui Chen, William E. Grant et Ming-Lun Lu. « Modeling Potential Range Expansion of the Invasive Shrub Leucaena leucocephala in the Hengchun Peninsula, Taiwan ». Invasive Plant Science and Management 6, n^o 4 (décembre 2013) : 492–501. http://dx.doi.org/10.1614/ipsm-d-13-00010.1.

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AbstractPrediction of invasive species distributions from survey data is widely recognized as a significant component of forest management and conservation planning. Leucaena leucocephala is the most aggressive invasive shrub and tree in the Hengchun peninsula in southern Taiwan. We analyzed geo-referenced data to identify potential variables of invasion and to predict likelihood of further invasion using boosted regression trees. Our results, which classified 92% of the cells correctly with regard to species presence and absence, indicated probability of invasion is correlated with climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation), landscape features (altitude; slope ratio and aspect; percentages of natural or secondary forest, agriculture land, developed area, and water bodies; and distances to the nearest forest edge and river), and anthropogenic factors (length of forest edge, and distances to the nearest road and agriculture land). The most influential variables are average annual temperature, altitude, precipitation, and slope. Continued range expansion by L. leucocephala is most likely to proceed (1) from the eastern and western portions toward the central portion of Hengchun township and (2) throughout the southern and toward the eastern portions of Manjhou township. Our model should provide useful information to aid forest managers in the development of long term monitoring and control strategies for L. leucocephala, in the early detection and eradication of newly established invasions, and also a framework for the integration and analysis of new presence and absence field data as they become available.

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Urziceanu, Mariana Mihaela, Alina Georgiana Cîșlariu, Eugenia Nagodă, Alma Lioara Nicolin, Dragoș Ștefan Măntoiu et Paulina Anastasiu. « Assessing the Invasion Risk of Humulus scandens Using Ensemble Species Distribution Modeling and Habitat Connectivity Analysis ». Plants 11, n^o 7 (23 mars 2022) : 857. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/plants11070857.

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Given the rapid spread of invasive alien plant species in Europe and limited information regarding their distribution and dispersion patterns, we analyzed the invasive risk of Humulus scandens, a species with an increased invasive potential. We collected occurrence records from Romania within an EU funded project and literature data, in order to perform an ensemble distribution model. Environmental variables varied from downscaled topoclimatic continuous entries to categorical ones, such as soil class, texture, or land use. Results showed potential core areas of the species within the study region. By inverting the probability output of the models, we have created a resistance surface which helped us model its dispersion patterns. Further, we assessed the probability of invasion for each resulted corridor using the species dispersion ecology and created an invasion risk map. H. scandens is highly influenced by milder climates and areas with constant flooding events, thus we found that the Tisa basin and its tributaries can be under a high invasion risk, spreading through the entire catchment, in Central, Western, and Northern Romania, towards the Eastern Carpathians. The Danube acted as a dispersion corridor for major river systems in southern Romania, but the dispersion capability of the species dropped in steppe areas with higher aridity and limited water course network. This approach is useful for creating adequate action plans in relation to invasive alien plant species, and should urgently be regarded, as results show a potentially large distribution of H. scandens across entire water catchment areas, with devastating effects on natural ecosystems.

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Bower, Michael J., Clare E. Aslan et Marcel Rejmánek. « Invasion Potential of Chinese Tallowtree (Triadica sebifera) in California's Central Valley ». Invasive Plant Science and Management 2, n^o 4 (octobre 2009) : 386–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1614/ipsm-09-030.1.

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AbstractThe ecological effects of Chinese tallowtree are well documented in the southeastern United States, yet this known invasive plant continues to be planted extensively in California's Central Valley, where it has recently naturalized in several locations. Climate modeling suggests that most of California's lowland riparian habitat is susceptible to invasion by Chinese tallowtree; however, no field tests are available to corroborate this result for California or to identify local environmental constraints that might limit potential habitats. We used observational and experimental methods to evaluate invasion potential of Chinese tallowtree in riparian habitats in California's Central Valley. High invasion potential, indicated by an intersection of the maxima of dispersal probability, germination, and survivorship of seedlings, occurred at low elevations immediately next to perennial waters. The main factor limiting Chinese tallowtree invasion potential in more elevated habitats appears to be lack of seedling drought tolerance. These findings suggest that California's riparian habitats are vulnerable to invasion by Chinese tallowtree, especially downstream of current naturalized populations where water or bird dispersal will deposit seeds in environments ideal for germination and growth.

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Clout, Mick N., et James C. Russell. « The invasion ecology of mammals : a global perspective ». Wildlife Research 35, n^o 3 (2008) : 180. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wr07091.

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Of the extant species of land mammals, 124 (2.6%) can be classed as ‘successful invaders’, whereas 1038 (21.6%) are classed as threatened, according to the 2006 IUCN Red List. Relatively high proportions of successful invaders are found among Artiodactyla, Carnivora, Lagomorpha and Perissodactyla. Compared with other organisms, mammals seem relatively likely to become established when introduced outside their natural range. Studies of determinants of invasion success indicate that the number of individuals released, the size of the natural range of the introduced species, and the temperateness of climate in the new range can all increase the probability of establishment of introduced mammals. Negative impacts of invasive mammals on native biodiversity include direct effects such as predation, browsing and competition, but can extend to disruption of patterns of nutrient flow, and trophic cascades. Eradication of several species of invasive mammals from increasingly large areas is now possible. In this context, it is important to better understand ecological interactions between such mammals (and between them and other species) to avoid unwanted consequences such as mesopredator or competitor release, after the removal of particular species. Finally, it is increasingly apparent that research is needed on the behaviour of dispersing and invading individuals, to improve the early detection of new mammal invasions or reinvasions.

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Wu, Zheng, fei-Fei Lin, Lin Zhang, Qian He, Feiping Li, Hui Wang, Yaqian Han, wen-Jing Yin et Bin Qi. « Characteristics of local extension based on tumor distribution in nasopharyngeal carcinoma and proposed clinical target volume delineation. » Journal of Clinical Oncology 41, n^o 16_suppl (1 juin 2023) : e18068-e18068. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2023.41.16_suppl.e18068.

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e18068 Background: to summarize the characteristics of local extension of the eccentric and central nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to improve clinical target volume (CTV) delineation. Methods: MRIs of 870 newly diagnosed NPC patients were reviewed. According to the tumor distribution feature, the NPCs were divided into eccentric and central lesions. Results: All local invasions presented as continuous invasion from gross lesions and structures adjacent to the nasopharynx are more likely to be invaded. There were 240 (27.6%) and 630 (72.4%) cases with central and eccentric lesions, respectively. The spread of eccentric lesions centered on the ipsilateral Rosenmüller’s fossa; and most anatomic sites had significantly higher invasion rates in ipsilateral side than the contralateral side ( P < 0.05); however, they were at low risk of concurrent bilateral tumor invasion ( < 10%) except the prevertebral muscle (15.4%) and nasal cavity (13.8%). The extension of central NPCs centered on the nasopharyngeal superior-posterior wall and was more common in superior-posterior direction; furthermore, the bilateral tumor invasion into the anatomical sites was common. Conclusions: Local invasion of NPC was characterized by continuous invasion from proximal to distal sites. The eccentric and central lesions showed different invasion features. Individual CTV delineation should be based on the distribution characteristics of tumors. The eccentric lesion had very low probability of invasion into the contralateral tissue, thus routine prophylactic radiation of contralateral parapharyngeal space and skull base foramina may not be necessary.

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Lütz, Alessandra F., Marco Antonio Amaral, Ian Braga et Lucas Wardil. « Invasion of Optimal Social Contracts ». Games 14, n^o 3 (15 mai 2023) : 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/g14030042.

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The stag-hunt game is a prototype for social contracts. Adopting a new and better social contract is usually challenging because the current one is already well established and stable due to sanctions imposed on non-conforming members. Thus, how does a population shift from the current social contract to a better one? In other words, how can a social system leave a locally optimum configuration to achieve a globally optimum state? Here, we investigate the effect of promoting diversity on the evolution of social contracts. We consider group-structured populations where individuals play the stag-hunt game in all groups. We model the diversity incentive as a snowdrift game played in a single focus group where the individual is more prone to adopting a deviant norm. We show that a moderate diversity incentive is sufficient to change the system dynamics, driving the population over the stag-hunt invasion barrier that prevents the global optimum being reached. Thus, an initial fraction of adopters of the new, better norm can drive the system toward the optimum social contract. If the diversity incentive is not too large, the better social contract is the new equilibrium and remains stable even if the incentive is turned off. However, if the incentive is large, the population is trapped in a mixed equilibrium and the better social norm can only be reached if the incentive is turned off after the equilibrium is reached. The results are obtained using Monte Carlo simulations and analytical approximation methods.

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Rauber, Ruth B., Pablo A. Cipriotti, Marta B. Collantes, Juan P. Martini et Enrique Frers. « Regional Suitability Assessment for the Mouseear Hawkweed (Hieracium pilosella) Invasion in Patagonian Rangelands ». Invasive Plant Science and Management 9, n^o 4 (décembre 2016) : 242–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1614/ipsm-d-16-00037.1.

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Several studies have been carried out to evaluate the main drivers behind biological invasions and their ecological consequences. Nevertheless, it is still extremely difficult to acquire a full understanding of the invasion process due to its high level of complexity. The problems that complicate invasion studies are low detection during the early stages of invasion, and the high survey cost of working over large, inaccessible, and rugged areas. The studies that develop efficient tools to reduce costs and time will help to control or mitigate the invaders' damaging effects. Hieracium pilosella is an aggressive invader of grasslands worldwide. The aim of this work was to conduct a regional assessment for the suitability of H. pilosella invasion in the Fuegian Steppe by combining field surveys, spatial modeling, and geographic information system tools. We recorded the invader cover in 167 sample sites and we determined the relationship between environmental variables and the probability of invasion. This was carried out by the selection of alternative generalized linear models. The best model indicates that disturbance and plant community were the main drivers to predict invasion suitability on a regional scale. Therefore, these two variables were used as main inputs to construct a regional invasion suitability map, which identifies the most critical areas for prevention, control, and further monitoring. This approach corresponds to a tool that permits us to evaluate the suitability of invasion even over large and inaccessible areas. The results especially warn about soil disturbance associated with usual management practices in Fuegian rangelands.

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Yu, Guo, Haitao Li, Yanru Chen, Linqing Liu et Dongming Zhang. « Risk Decision-Making Technology in Gas Reservoir Development at Sichuan Basin ». Shock and Vibration 2021 (20 novembre 2021) : 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/4890871.

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During the development of complex gas reservoirs, the risk decision-making problem often emerges. Thus, the study on risk assessment is an important tool used to identify potential hazards and create appropriate avoidance measures accordingly. Based on the analysis of seven types of risk factors in gas reservoir development planning, this paper aims to clarify the logical relationship between the risk factors in the strategic planning of natural gas development. The comprehensive research on target risks in the gas reservoir development planning based on stochastic simulation was carried out. The “probability curve scanning method” was used to evaluate objective risk factors, while the decision-making risk factors were evaluated using the “probability curve displacement method.” According to the realization probability and dispersion degree of the planned target combined with the risk grade evaluation matrix, the planning target evaluation risk grade was implemented. Moreover, the planning unit risk grade evaluation was obtained at different stages. Regarding the specific production capacity conditions in gas wells (horizontal and vertical wells) and gas reservoir water invasion, the probability method with Monte Carlo stochastic simulation was used to calculate the production and water invasion volumes. The established decision-making risk technology for gas reservoir development, along with the associated supporting procedures, can be used to evaluate the risks of reservoir development planning, production, and water invasion.

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Duncan, Richard P., Tim M. Blackburn, Silvia Rossinelli et Sven Bacher. « Quantifying invasion risk : the relationship between establishment probability and founding population size ». Methods in Ecology and Evolution 5, n^o 11 (novembre 2014) : 1255–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12288.

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Barbieri, Rafael F., Philip J. Lester, Alexander S. Miller et Ken G. Ryan. « A neurotoxic pesticide changes the outcome of aggressive interactions between native and invasive ants ». Proceedings of the Royal Society B : Biological Sciences 280, n^o 1772 (7 décembre 2013) : 20132157. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.2157.

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Neurotoxic pesticides, such as neonicotinoids, negatively affect the cognitive capacity and fitness of non-target species, and could also modify interspecific interactions. We tested whether sublethal contamination with neonicotinoid could affect foraging, colony fitness and the outcome of behavioural interactions between a native ( Monomorium antarcticum ) and an invasive ant species ( Linepithema humile ). The foraging behaviour of both ants was not affected by neonicotinoid exposure. Colonies of the invasive species exposed to the neonicotinoid produced significantly fewer brood. In interspecific confrontations, individuals of the native species exposed to the neonicotinoid lowered their aggression towards the invasive species, although their survival probability was not affected. Exposed individuals of the invasive species interacting with non-exposed native ants displayed increased aggression and had their survival probability reduced. Non-exposed individuals of the invasive species were less aggressive but more likely to survive when interacting with exposed native ants. These results suggest that non-target exposure of invaders to neonicotinoids could either increase or decrease the probability of survival according to the exposure status of the native species. Given that, in any community, different species have different food preferences, and thus different exposure to pesticides, non-target exposure could potentially change the dynamics of communities and influence invasion success.

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Lishchynskyi, Pavlo, Volodymyr Palamarchuk, Oleh Mazur, Volodymyr Kuts, Sergii Zemskov, Oleksandr Tovkai et Olexii Dronov. « Clinical Predictors of Minimal Extrathyroid Invasion of Papillary Thyroid Cancer ». Ukrainian Scientific Medical Youth Journal 131, n^o 2 (23 juin 2022) : 14–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.32345/usmyj.2(131).2022.14-22.

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extrathyroidal invasion (ETI) of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is a risk factor for locoregional metastasis. The clinical significance of minimal ETI depending on the primary tumor size has not been studied thoroughly. The combination of tumor diameter and minimal ETI can be used as a reliable prognostic factor for persistence of the disease. Given that the identification of the minimal ETI is possible only during the final histopathological study, there is a need to assess the existing preoperative clinical predictors that increase the probability of minimal ETI of PTC. The aim of the study is to assess preoperative clinical predictors that increase the probability of minimal extrathyroidal invasion of papillary thyroid cancer. A retro-prospective single-center study of preoperative clinical predictors that increase the probability of extrathyroidal invasion of thyroid cancer was conducted. Data from 514 patients aged 5 to 81 years were processed. Patients underwent surgery for papillary thyroid cancer for the first time. Scope of the operation: extrafascial thyroidectomy. Central neck dissection. Lymphadenectomy. All patients had clinical signs of low risk of recurrence. The mean age of patients was 44.4 ± 14.5 years. There were 91 men (17.7%) and 423 women (82.3%). Patients were divided into two groups: group 1 with 169 patients with minimal extraorganic invasion aged 5 to 71 years, group 2 with 345 patients without invasion aged 10 to 81 years. The following features were taken into account for the analysis: 1) age of patients; 2) their sex; 3) the size of the dominant tumor. The results were statistically processed using a specialized statistical program StatPlus Pro v.7 (AnalystSoft Inc.) and Epitools statistical calculators (Ausvet, https://epitools.ausvet.com.au/). According to the results, both by age (mean age of patients in group 1 - 44.7 ± 14.4 years; mean age of patients in group 2 - 44.3 ± 14.6 years) and by sex (in group 1 – 30 men (17.8%), 139 women (82.2%), in group 2 – 61 men (17.7%), 284 women (82.3%), the groups were almost identical, both groups were significantly (p <0.01) dominated by women. The size of the primary tumor in group 1 - 15.0 (10.0; 20.0) mm - was statistically significantly higher (p <0.001) than in the second - 10.0 (7.0; 15.0) mm. Most of patients (71.0%) with invasion had a primary tumor size > 10 mm, while in group 2 there were only 42.6% of such patients. Within the size ranges up to 10 mm, the probability of detection of invasion is 14.0% - 21.6%, while within the size ranges over 10 mm, it may be 41.9% - 50.0%. A tumor size of PTC over 10 mm, with a diagnostic strength of 61.9%, increases the risk of minimal extrathyroidal invasion. The average size of the primary tumor in the group of patients with minimal ETI is 15.0 (10.0; 20.0) mm, which is statistically significantly higher (p <0.001) than the same value in the group of patients without EIT - 10.0 (7.0; 15.0) mm. In patients with a PTC tumor size of less than 10 mm, the probability of minimal ETI ranges from 14.0% to 21.6%, while the probability of minimal ETI in patients with a tumor size over 10 mm ranges from 41.9% to 50.0%. Given that minimal ETI may be one of the factors of increased risk of PTC locoregional metastasis, surgery for PTC patients with a tumor size over 10 mm should be supplemented with central neck dissection, lymphadenectomy. A tumor size of PTC over 10 mm, with a diagnostic strength of 61.9%, increases the risk of minimal extrathyroidal invasion, which is also an argument in favor of central neck dissection, lymphadenectomy during surgery for patients with tumor size over 10 mm. The patients’ age and sex cannot be the factors that increase the risk of minimal extrathyroidal invasion of papillary thyroid cancer.

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Mantle, Ross E., Boleslaw Lach, Mauricio R. Delgado, Salleh Baeesa et Gerard Bélanger. « Predicting the probability of meningioma recurrence based on the quantity of peritumoral brain edema on computerized tomography scanning ». Neurosurgical Focus 7, n^o 1 (juillet 1999) : E2. http://dx.doi.org/10.3171/foc.1999.7.1.2.

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Object The goal of this study was to determine whether the quantity of peritumoral brain edema displayed on computerized tomography (CT) scanning could be correlated with brain invasion and subsequent recurrence of meningiomas. Methods One hundred thirty-five patients who underwent resection of intracranial meningiomas at the Ottawa Civic Hospital were followed during the period 1980 to 1998. A complete resection was defined as one in which tumor, invaded bone, and involved dura were removed. Tumors were examined microscopically for evidence of brain invasion. The mean follow-up period was 9 years (± 4 years, standard deviation [SD]) and the mean time to recurrence was 5 years (± 4 years, SD). The authors used a simple grading system based on the average thickness (in centimeters) of edema seen on an axial CT slice showing the most tumor. Edema grade was linearly related to edema volume determined by digitizing the scans (r = 0.96; 29 cases). The chance of brain invasion increased by 20% for each centimeter of edema (rs = 1, p < 0.0001; 124 cases). The presence of brain invasion was predictive of recurrence after complete resection with an accuracy of 83%, a sensitivity of 89%, and a specificity of 82%. The chance of recurrence within 10 years after complete resection was given by the equation: percentage chance of recurrence = (centimeter of edema)3 X 0.7, which can be used to predict the chance of recurrence based on findings on CT scans (rs = 1.00, p < 0.0001; 86 patients). Statistical significance was confirmed using Kaplan-Meier and univariate and multivariate analyses. Completeness of resection was the most powerful predictor of recurrence (p < 0.00001, r = 0.6), followed by edema grade and brain invasion (both p = 0.02, r = 0.1). Patient age and gender and tumor location, size, and histological subtype were nonsignificant factors. Conclusions Brain invasion causes peritumoral edema. Invaded brain tissue is also the source of residual cells in cases of tumor recurrence after gross-total resection.

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Mantle, Ross E., Boleslaw Lach, Mauricio R. Delgado, Salleh Baeesa et Gerard Bélanger. « Predicting the probability of meningioma recurrence based on the quantity of peritumoral brain edema on computerized tomography scanning ». Journal of Neurosurgery 91, n^o 3 (septembre 1999) : 375–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.3171/jns.1999.91.3.0375.

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Object. The goal of this study was to determine whether the quantity of peritumoral brain edema displayed on computerized tomography (CT) scanning could be correlated with brain invasion and subsequent recurrence of meningiomas.Methods. One hundred thirty-five patients who underwent resection of intracranial meningiomas at the Ottawa Civic Hospital were followed during the period 1980 to 1998. A complete resection was defined as one in which tumor, invaded bone, and involved dura were removed. Tumors were examined microscopically for evidence of brain invasion. The mean follow-up period was 9 ± 4 years (standard deviation [SD]) and the mean time to recurrence was 5 ± 4 years (SD). The authors used a simple grading system based on the average thickness (in centimeters) of edema seen on an axial CT slice showing the most tumor.Edema grade was linearly related to edema volume determined by digitizing the scans (r = 0.96; 29 cases). The chance of brain invasion increased by 20% for each centimeter of edema (rs = 1, p < 0.0001; 124 cases). The presence of brain invasion was predictive of recurrence after complete resection with an accuracy of 83%, a sensitivity of 89%, and a specificity of 82%. The chance of recurrence within 10 years after complete resection was given by the equation: percentage chance of recurrence = (centimeter of edema)3 × 0.7, which can be used to predict the chance of recurrence based on findings on CT scans (rs = 1, p < 0.0001; 86 patients). Statistical significance was confirmed using Kaplan—Meier and univariate and multivariate analyses. Completeness of resection was the most powerful predictor of recurrence (p < 0.00001, r = 0.6), followed by edema grade and brain invasion (both p = 0.02, r = 0.1). Patient age and gender and tumor location, size, and histological subtype were nonsignificant factors.Conclusions. Brain invasion causes peritumoral edema. Invaded brain tissue is also the source of residual cells in cases of tumor recurrence after gross-total resection.

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Haase, Silvia, Ana Cabrera, Christine Langer, Moritz Treeck, Nicole Struck, Susann Herrmann, Pascal W. Jansen et al. « Characterization of a Conserved Rhoptry-Associated Leucine Zipper-Like Protein in the Malaria Parasite Plasmodium falciparum ». Infection and Immunity 76, n^o 3 (3 janvier 2008) : 879–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/iai.00144-07.

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ABSTRACT One of the key processes in the pathobiology of the malaria parasite is the invasion and subsequent modification of the human erythrocyte. In this complex process, an unknown number of parasite proteins are involved, some of which are leading vaccine candidates. The majority of the proteins that play pivotal roles in invasion are either stored in the apical secretory organelles or located on the surface of the merozoite, the invasive stage of the parasite. Using transcriptional and structural features of these known proteins, we performed a genomewide search that identified 49 hypothetical proteins with a high probability of being located on the surface of the merozoite or in the secretory organelles. Of these candidates, we characterized a novel leucine zipper-like protein in Plasmodium falciparum that is conserved in Plasmodium spp. This protein is expressed in late blood stages and localizes to the rhoptries of the parasite. We demonstrate that this Plasmodium sp.-specific protein has a high degree of conservation within field isolates and that it is refractory to gene knockout attempts and thus might play an important role in invasion.

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Hagan, Donald L., Elena A. Mikhailova, Timothy M. Shearman, Patrick T. Ma, Jedidah S. Nankaya, Samantha K. Hart, Hillary E. Valdetero, William C. Bridges et He Yun. « The Role of Soil and Landscape Factors in Chinese Privet (Ligustrum sinense) Invasion in the Appalachian Piedmont ». Invasive Plant Science and Management 7, n^o 3 (septembre 2014) : 483–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1614/ipsm-d-14-00002.1.

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AbstractThere is a limited understanding about the ecological mechanisms that enable certain plant species to become successful invaders of natural areas. This study was conducted to determine the soil and landscape characteristics that correlate with invasion of Chinese privet (CHP), and to develop a model to predict the probability of CHP invasion in Piedmont forests. A landscape ecosystem classification (LEC) system—based on the percentage of clay in the B horizon, depth to maximum clay (cm), exposure, terrain shape, and aspect (degrees)—was used to determine the soil moisture characteristics of invaded and uninvaded plots. Additional measurements included the cover classes of CHP and other species, litter depth (cm), slope (degrees), overstory basal area (m2 ha−1), and soil chemical properties. CHP invasion was negatively correlated with overstory basal area and slope and positively with litter depth and pH. A stepwise logistic regression model containing these four variables was highly sensitive, with an overall accuracy of 78%. Given the accuracy of this model, we propose that it can be used to calculate the probability of invasion in a given area, provided that some basic, readily obtainable site characteristics are known.

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Fukagawa, Eri, Shinya Yamamoto, Sachiko Ohde, Kasumi Kaneko Yoshitomi, Kosuke Hamada, Yusuke Yoneoka, Motohiro Fujiwara et al. « External validation of the Briganti 2019 nomogram to identify candidates for extended pelvic lymph node dissection among patients with high-risk clinically localized prostate cancer ». International Journal of Clinical Oncology 26, n^o 9 (12 juin 2021) : 1736–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10147-021-01954-4.

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Abstract Background We aimed to establish an external validation of the Briganti 2019 nomogram in a Japanese cohort to preoperatively evaluate the probability of lymph node invasion in patients with high-risk, clinically localized prostate cancer. Methods The cohort consisted of 278 patients with prostate cancer diagnosed using magnetic resonance imaging-targeted biopsy who underwent radical prostatectomy and extended pelvic lymph node dissection from 2012 to 2020. Patients were rated using the Briganti 2019 nomogram, which evaluates the probability of lymph node invasion. We used the area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic analysis to quantify the accuracy of the nomogram. Results Nineteen (6.8%) patients had lymph node invasion. The median number of lymph nodes removed was 18. The area under the curve for the Briganti 2019 was 0.71. When the cutoff was set at 7%, 84 (30.2%) patients with extended pelvic lymph node dissection could be omitted, and only 1 (1.2%) patient with lymph node invasion would be missed. Sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive values at the 7% cutoff were 94.7, 32.0, and 98.8%, respectively. Conclusion This external validation showed that the Briganti 2019 nomogram was accurate, although there may still be scope for individual adjustments.

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Poggi, S., F. M. Neri, V. Deytieux, A. Bates, W. Otten, C. A. Gilligan et D. J. Bailey. « Percolation-Based Risk Index for Pathogen Invasion : Application to Soilborne Disease in Propagation Systems ». Phytopathology® 103, n^o 10 (octobre 2013) : 1012–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/phyto-02-13-0033-r.

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Propagation systems for seedling growth play a major role in agriculture, and in notable cases (such as organic systems), are under constant threat from soil and seedborne fungal plant pathogens such as Rhizoctonia solani or Pythium spp. Yet, to date little is known that links the risk of disease invasion to the host density, which is an agronomic characteristic that can be readily controlled. We introduce here, for the first time in an agronomic system, a percolation framework to analyze the link. We set up an experiment to study the spread of the ubiquitous fungus R. solani in replicated propagation systems with different planting densities, and fit a percolation-based epidemiological model to the data using Bayesian inference methods. The estimated probability of pathogen transmission between infected and susceptible plants is used to calculate the risk of invasion. By comparing the transmission probability and the risk values obtained for different planting densities, we are able to give evidence of a nonlinear relationship between disease invasion and the inter-plant spacing, hence to demonstrate the existence of a spatial threshold for epidemic invasion. The implications and potential use of our methods for the evaluation of disease control strategies are discussed.

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Willoughby, Janna R., Benjamin A. McKenzie, Jordan Ahn, Todd D. Steury, Christopher A. Lepzcyk et Sarah Zohdy. « Assessing and managing the risk of Aedes mosquito introductions via the global maritime trade network ». PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 18, n^o 4 (10 avril 2024) : e0012110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012110.

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The global shipping network (GSN) has been suggested as a pathway for the establishment and reintroduction of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus primarily via the tire trade. We used historical maritime movement data in combination with an agent-based model to understand invasion risk in the United States Gulf Coast and how the risk of these invasions could be reduced. We found a strong correlation between the total number of cargo ship arrivals at each port and likelihood of arrival by both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Additionally, in 2012, 99.2% of the arrivals into target ports had most recently visited ports likely occupied by both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, increasing risk of Aedes invasion. Our model results indicated that detection and removal of mosquitoes from containers when they are unloaded effectively reduced the probability of mosquito populations establishment even when the connectivity of ports increased. To reduce the risk of invasion and reintroduction of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, surveillance and control efforts should be employed when containers leave high risk locations and when they arrive in ports at high risk of establishment.

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Demetrius, Lloyd, Volker Matthias Gundlach et Gunter Ochs. « Invasion exponents in biological networks ». Physica A : Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 388, n^o 5 (mars 2009) : 651–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2008.10.048.

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Panetta, F. Dane. « Weed Eradication—An Economic Perspective ». Invasive Plant Science and Management 2, n^o 4 (octobre 2009) : 360–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1614/ipsm-09-003.1.

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AbstractThere has been recent interest in determining the upper limits to the feasibility of weed eradication. Although a number of disparate factors determine the success of an eradication program, ultimately eradication feasibility must be viewed in the context of the amount of investment that can be made. The latter should reflect the hazard posed by an invasion, with greater investment justified by greater threats. In simplest terms, the effort (and hence investment) to achieve weed eradication comprises the detection effort required to delimit an invasion plus the search and control effort required to prevent reproduction until extirpation occurs over the entire infested area. The difficulty of estimating the required investment at the commencement of a weed eradication program (as well as during periodic reviews) is a serious problem. Bioeconomics show promise in determining the optimal approach to managing weed invasions, notwithstanding ongoing difficulties in estimating the costs and benefits of eradication and alternative invasion management strategies. A flexible approach to the management of weed invasions is needed, allowing for the adoption of another strategy when it becomes clear that the probability of eradication is low, owing to resourcing or intractable technical issues. Whether the considerable progress that has been achieved towards eradication of the once massive witchweed invasion can be duplicated for other weeds of agricultural systems will depend to a large extent upon investment (> $250 million over 50 yr in this instance). Weeds of natural ecosystems seem destined to remain more difficult eradication targets for a variety of reasons, including higher impedance to eradication, more difficulty in valuing the benefits arising from eradication, and possibly less willingness to pay from society at large.

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Hess, Katharina, Dorothee Cäcilia Spille, Alborz Adeli, Peter B. Sporns, Caroline Brokinkel, Oliver Grauer, Christian Mawrin, Walter Stummer, Werner Paulus et Benjamin Brokinkel. « Brain invasion and the risk of seizures in patients with meningioma ». Journal of Neurosurgery 130, n^o 3 (mars 2019) : 789–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.3171/2017.11.jns172265.

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OBJECTIVEIdentification of risk factors for perioperative epilepsy remains crucial in the care of patients with meningioma. Moreover, associations of brain invasion with clinical and radiological variables have been largely unexplored. The authors hypothesized that invasion of the cortex and subsequent increased edema facilitate seizures, and they compared radiological data and perioperative seizures in patients with brain-invasive or noninvasive meningioma.METHODSCorrelations of brain invasion with tumor and edema volumes and preoperative and postoperative seizures were analyzed in univariate and multivariate analyses.RESULTSTotals of 108 (61%) females and 68 (39%) males with a median age of 60 years and harboring totals of 92 (52%) grade I, 79 (45%) grade II, and 5 (3%) grade III tumors were included. Brain invasion was found in 38 (22%) patients and was absent in 138 (78%) patients. The tumors were located at the convexity in 72 (41%) patients, at the falx cerebri in 26 (15%), at the skull base in 69 (39%), in the posterior fossa in 7 (4%), and in the ventricle in 2 (1%); the median tumor and edema volumes were 13.73 cm3 (range 0.81–162.22 cm3) and 1.38 cm3 (range 0.00–355.80 cm3), respectively. As expected, edema volume increased with rising tumor volume (p < 0.001). Brain invasion was independent of tumor volume (p = 0.176) but strongly correlated with edema volume (p < 0.001). The mean edema volume in noninvasive tumors was 33.0 cm3, but in invasive tumors, it was 130.7 cm3 (p = 0.008). The frequency of preoperative seizures was independent of the patients’ age, sex, and tumor location; however, the frequency was 32% (n = 12) in patients with invasive meningioma and 15% (n = 21) in those with noninvasive meningioma (p = 0.033). In contrast, the probability of detecting brain invasion microscopically was increased more than 2-fold in patients with a history of preoperative seizures (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.13–5.88; p = 0.025). In univariate analyses, the rate of preoperative seizures correlated slightly with tumor volume (p = 0.049) but strongly with edema volume (p = 0.014), whereas seizure semiology was found to be independent of brain invasion (p = 0.211). In multivariate analyses adjusted for age, sex, tumor location, tumor and edema volumes, and WHO grade, rising tumor volume (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00–1.03; p = 0.042) and especially brain invasion (OR 5.26, 95% CI 1.52–18.15; p = 0.009) were identified as independent predictors of preoperative seizures. Nine (5%) patients developed new seizures within a median follow-up time of 15 months after surgery. Development of postoperative epilepsy was independent of all clinical variables, including Simpson grade (p = 0.133), tumor location (p = 0.936), brain invasion (p = 0.408), and preoperative edema volume (p = 0.081), but was correlated with increasing preoperative tumor volume (p = 0.004). Postoperative seizure-free rates were similar among patients with invasive and those with noninvasive meningioma (p = 0.372).CONCLUSIONSBrain invasion was identified as a new and strong predictor for preoperative, but not postoperative, seizures. Although also associated with increased peritumoral edema, seizures in patients with invasive meningioma might be facilitated substantially by cortical invasion itself. Consideration of seizures in consultations between the neurosurgeon and neuropathologist can improve the microscopic detection of brain invasion.

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Hannunen, Salla, et Juha Tuomola. « Assessing the probability of freedom from pine wood nematode based on 19 years of surveys ». NeoBiota 58 (8 juillet 2020) : 75–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.58.38313.

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Many quarantine pests, such as the pine wood nematode (PWN, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus), are surveyed annually in all EU countries. Although a lot of resources are spent in the surveys, the confidence in pest freedom achieved with them is not commonly analysed. We assessed the probability that Finland is free from PWN, based on the surveys done in 2000–2018. We used the methods employed in the risk-based estimate of system sensitivity tool (RiBESS), which has recently been recommended for quarantine pest applications. We considered two scenarios: 1) the surveys aimed to justify phytosanitary import requirements and to facilitate exports and 2) the surveys aimed to detect invasions early to enable eradication of outbreaks. These differed only in the pest prevalence that the surveys were expected to detect. The surveys appeared to support the assumption that PWN is not present in Finland, but they did not seem extensive enough to ensure early detection of invasions. The sensitivity of the import-export surveys was greater than 0.6 in 13 years, whereas that of the early detection surveys was always below 0.25. The probability of freedom achieved in 2018 following 19 years of surveys increased asymptotically with the mean time between invasions. For the import-export surveys, this probability was at least 0.95 unless the mean time between invasions was less than 13 years. For the early detection surveys, the probability of freedom was less than 0.73 unless the mean time between invasions was 63 years or more. The results were rather robust with respect to the parameters for which exact information was lacking. To improve the assessment, a quantitative estimate of the probability of PWN invasion to Finland and a thorough assessment of the maximum area of an eradicable infestation would be needed. To gain an understanding about the true impact of quarantine pest surveys on biosecurity, more assessments, like the one presented in this paper, are needed.

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Strona, Giovanni, Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Pedro Cardoso, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Frédéric Guillaume, Federica Manca, Ville Mustonen et Luis Zaman. « Time-travelling pathogens and their risk to ecological communities ». PLOS Computational Biology 19, n^o 7 (27 juillet 2023) : e1011268. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011268.

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Permafrost thawing and the potential ‘lab leak’ of ancient microorganisms generate risks of biological invasions for today’s ecological communities, including threats to human health via exposure to emergent pathogens. Whether and how such ‘time-travelling’ invaders could establish in modern communities is unclear, and existing data are too scarce to test hypotheses. To quantify the risks of time-travelling invasions, we isolated digital virus-like pathogens from the past records of coevolved artificial life communities and studied their simulated invasion into future states of the community. We then investigated how invasions affected diversity of the free-living bacteria-like organisms (i.e., hosts) in recipient communities compared to controls where no invasion occurred (and control invasions of contemporary pathogens). Invading pathogens could often survive and continue evolving, and in a few cases (3.1%) became exceptionally dominant in the invaded community. Even so, invaders often had negligible effects on the invaded community composition; however, in a few, highly unpredictable cases (1.1%), invaders precipitated either substantial losses (up to -32%) or gains (up to +12%) in the total richness of free-living species compared to controls. Given the sheer abundance of ancient microorganisms regularly released into modern communities, such a low probability of outbreak events still presents substantial risks. Our findings therefore suggest that unpredictable threats so far confined to science fiction and conjecture could in fact be powerful drivers of ecological change.

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Chen, Yin-Ju, Joseph T. Chang, Guo-Rung You, Chun-Yu Huang, Kang-Hsing Fan et Ann-Joy Cheng. « Panel biomarkers associated with cancer invasion and prognostic prediction for head–neck cancer ». Biomarkers in Medicine 15, n^o 11 (août 2021) : 861–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.2217/bmm-2021-0213.

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Aim: Cell invasion leading to metastasis is a major cause of treatment failure in head–neck cancers (HNCs). Identifying prognostic molecules associated with invasiveness is imperative for clinical applications. Materials & methods: A systemic approach was used to globally survey invasion-related genes, including transcriptomic profiling, pathway analysis, data mining and prognostic assessment using TCGA-HNSC dataset. Results: Six functional pathways and six hub molecules (LAMA3, LAMC2, THBS1, IGF1R, PDGFB and TGFβ1) were identified that significantly contributed to cell invasion, leading to poor survival in HNC patients. Combinations of multiple biomarkers substantially increased the probability of accurately predicting prognosis. Conclusion: Our six defined invasion-related molecules may be used as a panel signature in precision medicine for prognostic indicators or molecular therapeutic targets for HNC.

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Lafond, Valentine, Federico Lingua, Stefanie Lumnitz, Gregory Paradis, Vivek Srivastava et Verena C. Griess. « Challenges and opportunities in developing decision support systems for risk assessment and management of forest invasive alien species ». Environmental Reviews 28, n^o 3 (septembre 2020) : 218–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/er-2019-0024.

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Biological invasions represent an increasing threat to ecosystems worldwide, with negative ecological and socio-economic impacts, whereas risk assessment and management remain challenging. The development of decision support systems (DSS) has the potential to help decision-makers and managers mitigate invasive species, but few DSS exist for forest invasive alien species (FIAS). The use of DSS in forestry is not new but they represent an asset in decision making in times of increasing complexity of issues foresters face and factors to consider. Yet, few forest DSS address the problem of FIAS. In this review, we identify key elements of the FIAS risk-assessment and management decision-making process, discuss these elements with a model-based DSS development perspective, and summarize outstanding challenges and opportunities for FIAS DSS development. FIAS DSS should not only estimate the probability of FIAS invasion but also consider forest vulnerability and quantify exposure (i.e., value at risk), while allowing different threat scenarios and possible solutions to be compared. Such a complete risk assessment and management calls for integrative modelling approaches that explicitly link different components of FIAS invasion, management, and impact assessment into a DSS. Such integrative modelling is challenging and may require collaboration among experts of different domains. International collaboration is also needed to facilitate data exchange, as the lack of data is one of the main challenges. In many cases, data and ecological knowledge of invasive species are too limited (in quantity or quality) to constitute useful input to DSS or their components (e.g., species distribution model). Another challenge is to better consider the multiple sources of uncertainties inherent to modelling invasions (e.g., host preferences and behavior, forest vulnerability, potential impacts, and cost and benefits of mitigation actions) when assessing FIAS risk and communicating results from risk assessment. Communication with stakeholders and DSS end-users, in fact, appears as one of the keys to successful DSS development and appropriation, not only to ensure that they correspond to end-users’ needs but also to ensure ease of use, functionality, and good visualization of DSS outputs.

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Kim, Y., S. Ahn, S. Jeun, Y. Lee et J. Park. « P11.40.A Clinicopathological Analysis of High risk Pituitary Adenomas According to the 2017 WHO Classification System for Pituitary Neuroendocrine Tumors (PitNET) ». Neuro-Oncology 24, Supplement_2 (1 septembre 2022) : ii66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/neuonc/noac174.229.

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Abstract Background The 2017 WHO classification of pituitary tumors has revealed “high-risk pituitary neuroendocrine tumors (PitNETs)”, which were known to have high probability for recurrence. Tumor invasion was not included in the pathological grading and classification due to frequent lack of proper pathologic assessment. However, it mentioned tumor invasion as an important prognostic feature in identifying clinically aggressive adenomas. Material and Methods We performed a retrospective review of a prospectively collected dataset from January 2018 to March 2021. Patient’s clinical presentation, radiologic features, pathologic findings, and clinical outcome were gathered. Inter-group analysis was performed for high-risk versus low-risk tumors, and invasive versus non-invasive tumors. Results Among total 116 cases of PitNETs, high-risk and low-risk tumors were identified in 32 and 84 cases, respectively. The inter-group comparison showed no differences in clinical presentation, radiologic features, pathologic findings, and clinical outcomes.Invasive and non-invasive tumors were identified in 49 and 67 cases, respectively. The invasive group tumors were more symptomatic ( 29 (59.2%) vs. 30 (44.8%), p= 0.031), with larger tumor size over 40mm (9 (18.4%) vs. 1 (1.5%), p = 0.002), and more likely to have Knosp grade higher than 3. The gross-total resection was less achievable (7 (14.3%) vs 26 (38.8%), p = 0.007) However, Ki-67 index showed no significantly difference between the invasive group and non-invasive group (2.0 vs 2.0 , p= 0.556). Conclusion According to our study results, the pathologic diagnosis of a high-risk tumor does not necessarily seem to properly reflect the clinical aggressiveness. Tumor invasion, however, seems to better represent the aggressive tumors that requires proper and active treatment.

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Engström-Öst, Jonna, Ivana Savatijevic Rasic, Andreas Brutemark, Romi Rancken, Gordana Subakov Simić et Ane T. Laugen. « Can Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii invade the Baltic Sea ? » Environmental Reviews 23, n^o 2 (juin 2015) : 161–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/er-2014-0062.

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Management actions against invasive species are usually most efficient during early stages of invasion. Monitoring for early detection is therefore part of many management plans. However, if monitoring efforts do not match suitable habitat areas, detecting the initial stages of an invasion may fail. We highlight this mismatch by assessing which areas have suitable habitats for an invasion of the cyanobacterium Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in the Baltic Sea, and compare these with the areas that are currently monitored for algal blooms. Establishment of this potential toxin-producer in the Baltic Sea could have serious socio-economic consequences for tourism and recreation, as well as fisheries and aquaculture in the coastal regions. We estimate the coastal areas of the eastern Gulf of Finland as the most suitable area for establishment because of low salinity and high summer seawater surface temperatures. The species is not yet reported in the Baltic Sea, but in the suitable-habitat areas indicated by our assessment, very little monitoring is currently being done. We suggest several lines of research and monitoring to increase the probability of early detection and better predictions for the future distribution of the species.

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Wang, Ke, Jing Jing Tan et Ning Pan. « Application of Improved Ant Colony Algorithm in the Network Cloud Data Clustering and Intrusion Detection ». Applied Mechanics and Materials 713-715 (janvier 2015) : 2431–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.713-715.2431.

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The traditional network intrusion data detection brings a lot of problems, like congestion control, leading to poor clustering effect. An improved intrusion detection algorithm based on ant guide data clustering is proposed, the accuracy of the output probability is determined by the size of the gene-bit random number, updating status categories sufficient statistics to obtain invasion characteristics observation probability and initial probability, and performing cluster center update rules. Simulation results show that the algorithm has better application performance in data clustering and network intrusion detection.

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Linnebjerg, Jannie Fries, Dennis M. Hansen, Nancy Bunbury et Jens M. Olesen. « Diet composition of the invasive red-whiskered bulbul Pycnonotus jocosus in Mauritius ». Journal of Tropical Ecology 26, n^o 3 (30 mars 2010) : 347–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266467409990617.

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Disruption of ecosystems is one of the biggest threats posed by invasive species (Mack et al. 2000). Thus, one of the most important challenges is to understand the impact of exotic species on native species and habitats (e.g. Jones 2008). The probability that entire ‘invasive communities’ will develop increases as more species establish in new areas (Bourgeois et al. 2005). For example, introduced species may act in concert, facilitating one another's invasion, and increasing the likelihood of successful establishment, spread and impact. Simberloff & Von Holle (1999) introduced the term ‘invasional meltdown’ for this process, which has received widespread attention since (e.g. O'Dowd 2003, Richardson et al. 2000, Simberloff 2006). Positive interactions among introduced species are relatively common, but few have been studied in detail (Traveset & Richardson 2006). Examples include introduced insects and birds that pollinate and disperse exotic plants, thereby facilitating the spread of these species into non-invaded habitats (Goulson 2003, Mandon-Dalger et al. 2004, Simberloff & Von Holle 1999). From a more general ecological perspective, the study of interactions involving introduced and invasive species can contribute to our knowledge of ecological processes – for example, community assembly and indirect interactions.

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Zara, Reginaldo A., et Roberto N. Onody. « The N-steps invasion percolation model ». Physica A : Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 277, n^o 1-2 (mars 2000) : 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0378-4371(99)00477-x.

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Damron, Michael, Artëm Sapozhnikov et Bálint Vágvölgyi. « Relations between invasion percolation and critical percolation in two dimensions ». Annals of Probability 37, n^o 6 (novembre 2009) : 2297–331. http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-aop462.

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Righetto, Ana J., Thiago G. Ramires, Luiz R. Nakamura, Pedro L. D. B. Castanho, Christel Faes et Taciana V. Savian. « Predicting weed invasion in a sugarcane cultivar using multispectral image ». Journal of Applied Statistics 46, n^o 1 (19 mars 2018) : 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2018.1450362.

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Duncan, Richard P., et David M. Forsyth. « Modelling population persistence on islands : mammal introductions in the New Zealand archipelago ». Proceedings of the Royal Society B : Biological Sciences 273, n^o 1604 (22 août 2006) : 2969–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3662.

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Islands are likely to differ in their susceptibility to colonization or invasion due to variation in factors that affect population persistence, including island area, climatic severity and habitat modification. We tested the importance of these factors in explaining the persistence of 164 introductions of six mammal species to 85 islands in the New Zealand archipelago using survival analysis and model selection techniques. As predicted by the theory of stochastic population growth, extinction risk was the greatest in the period immediately following introduction, declining rapidly to low probability by ca 25 years. This suggests that initially small populations were at greatest risk of extinction and that populations which survived for 25 years were likely to persist subsequently for much longer. Islands in the New Zealand archipelago become colder and windier with increasing latitude, and the probability of mammal populations persisting on islands declined steeply with increasing latitude. Hence, our results suggest that climatic suitability was an important determinant of the outcome of these invasions. The form of the relationship between latitude and persistence probability differed among species, emphasizing that the outcome of colonization attempts is species-environment specific.

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Heier, Lise, Geir O. Storvik, Stephen A. Davis, Hildegunn Viljugrein, Vladimir S. Ageyev, Evgeniya Klassovskaya et Nils Chr Stenseth. « Emergence, spread, persistence and fade-out of sylvatic plague in Kazakhstan ». Proceedings of the Royal Society B : Biological Sciences 278, n^o 1720 (23 février 2011) : 2915–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2010.2614.

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Predicting the dynamics of zoonoses in wildlife is important not only for prevention of transmission to humans, but also for improving the general understanding of epidemiological processes. A large dataset on sylvatic plague in the Pre-Balkhash area of Kazakhstan (collected for surveillance purposes) provides a rare opportunity for detailed statistical modelling of an infectious disease. Previous work using these data has revealed a host abundance threshold for epizootics, and climatic influences on plague prevalence. Here, we present a model describing the local space–time dynamics of the disease at a spatial scale of 20 × 20 km 2 and a biannual temporal scale, distinguishing between invasion and persistence events. We used a Bayesian imputation method to account for uncertainties resulting from poor data in explanatory variables and response variables. Spatial autocorrelation in the data was accounted for in imputations and analyses through random effects. The results show (i) a clear effect of spatial transmission, (ii) a high probability of persistence compared with invasion, and (iii) a stronger influence of rodent abundance on invasion than on persistence. In particular, there was a substantial probability of persistence also at low host abundance.

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Spence, Laura A., Joshua V. Ross, Susan K. Wiser, Robert B. Allen et David A. Coomes. « Disturbance affects short-term facilitation, but not long-term saturation, of exotic plant invasion in New Zealand forest ». Proceedings of the Royal Society B : Biological Sciences 278, n^o 1711 (27 octobre 2010) : 1457–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2010.1738.

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We investigate the spread of an exotic herb, Hieracium lepidulum , into a New Zealand Nothofagus forest with the aim of understanding how stand-development of tree populations, propagule pressure and invader persistence, affect invasion across the landscape and within communities. Using data repeatedly collected over 35 years, from 250 locations, we parametrize continuous-time Markov chain models and use these models to examine future projections of the invasion under a range of hypothetical scenarios. We found that the probability of invasion into a stand was relatively high following canopy disturbance and that local abundance of Hieracium was promoted by minor disturbances. However, model predictions extrapolated 45 years into the future show that neither the rate of landscape-level invasion, nor local population growth of Hieracium , was affected much by changing the frequency of canopy disturbance events. Instead, invasion levels were strongly affected by the ability of Hieracium to persist in the understorey following forest canopy closure, and by propagule supply from streams, forest edges and plants already established within the stand. Our results show that disturbance frequency has surprisingly little influence on the long-term trajectory of invasion, while invader persistence strongly determines invasion patterns.

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Machado, Carolina Libório, Denis Valle, Mauricio Claudio Horta, Ana Yoko Ykeuti Meiga et Anaiá da Paixão Sevá. « Patterns and drivers of Human Visceral Leishmaniasis in Pernambuco (Brazil) from 2007 to 2018 ». PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 17, n^o 2 (8 février 2023) : e0011108. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0011108.

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Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the second most common protozoosis that affects people around the world. The aim of this study is to understand how environmental and socioeconomic factors, as well as VL control and surveillance interventions, influence the spread and detection of VL cases in Pernambuco state (Brazil). A novel model was developed to analyze cases of VL between 2007 and 2018, enabling the quantification of the association of these variables with two processes: the probability of “invasion” (emergence of new cases) at municipalities by VL, and the probability of detecting cases not reported in municipalities that have already been invaded. Pernambuco state identified 1,410 cases of VL between 2007 and 2018, with an average of 128 cases per year and average incidence of 1.28/100 thousand people. These cases were distributed in 77.1% (142/184) of the municipalities, and 54.8% (773/1,410) of them were autochthonous. Our model reveals that the proportion of agriculture was positively associated with VL invasion probability. We also find that municipalities that are closer to notification centers and/or that have received technical training and support tend to have higher detection rates of VL cases. Taken together, these results suggest that a municipality with almost no agriculture and that received technical training, located close to a notification center, is unlikely to be invaded if no cases have ever been detected. On the other hand, a municipality that is far from the notification center, with no technical training, with a large agricultural area might have already been invaded but the surveillance system might have routinely failed to detect VL cases due to low detection probability. By disentangling the processes of invasion and detection, we were able to generate insights that are likely to be useful for the strategic allocation of VL prevention and control interventions.

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Custer, Gordon F., et Linda T. A. van Diepen. « Plant Invasion Has Limited Impact on Soil Microbial α-Diversity : A Meta-Analysis ». Diversity 12, n^o 3 (20 mars 2020) : 112. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/d12030112.

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Plant invasion has proven to be a significant driver of ecosystem change, and with the increased probability of invasion due to globalization, agricultural practices and other anthropogenic causes, it is crucial to understand its impact across multiple trophic levels. With strong linkages between above and belowground processes, the response of soil microorganisms to plant invasion is the next logical step in developing our conceptual understanding of this complex system. In our study, we utilized a meta-analytical approach to better understand the impacts of plant invasion on soil microbial diversity. We synthesized 70 independent studies with 23 unique invaders across multiple ecosystem types to search for generalizable trends in soil microbial α-diversity following invasion. When possible, soil nutrient metrics were also collected in an attempt to understand the contribution of nutrient status shifts on microbial α-diversity. Our results show plant invasion to have highly heterogenous and limited impacts on microbial α-diversity. When taken together, our study indicates soil microbial α-diversity to remain constant following invasion, contrary to the aboveground counterparts. As our results suggest a decoupling in patterns of below and aboveground diversity, future work is needed to examine the drivers of microbial diversity patterns following invasion.

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