Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « International trade – Europe »
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Articles de revues sur le sujet "International trade – Europe"
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Hamilton, Carl B., L. Alan Winters, Gordon Hughes, and Alasdair Smith. "Opening up International Trade with Eastern Europe." Economic Policy 7, no. 14 (1992): 77. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1344513.
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Frensch, Richard. "International Trade and Restructuring in Eastern Europe." Comparative Economic Studies 38, no. 2-3 (1996): 149–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/ces.1996.22.
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Cieślik, Andrzej, Jan Jakub Michałek, and Jerzy Mycielski. "Social Development and International Trade in Central Europe." Equilibrium 7, no. 2 (2012): 7–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/equil.2012.008.
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In this paper we study the impact of social development on international trade in Central and Eastern Europe using the generalized gravity model. Many previous empirical studies which explored the determinants of trade flows, concentrated only on traditional gravity variables, such as the size of trading partners, factor abundance, technology differences or distance. In our study, in addition to the standard set of gravity variables, we examine the role of aggregate social development indicators such as Human Development Index and its components. Our results show that both aggregate and disaggregate measures of social development affect the volume of international trade flows. In particular, the education indexes seem to be positively related to bilateral trade flows.
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Milner, Susan. "The International Labour Movement and the Limits of Internationalism: the International Secretariat of National Trade Union Centres, 1901–1913." International Review of Social History 33, no. 1 (1988): 1–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020859000008610.
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SummaryDespite an abundance of literature on the Second International relatively little is known about the work of the International Secretariat of National Trade Union Centres (ISNTUC). Foundect in 1901 by the German and Scandinavian labour leaders, this exclusively trade union International (the forerunner of the post-war International Federation of Trade Unions) included representatives of most of the major labour movements of Europe and the USA. Under German leadership it occupied itself with exclusively trade union issues, a limitation which was contested by revolutionary labour federations. Study of the ISNTUC therefore reveals much about conceptions of internationalism within the internationally organized labour movement.
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Pirtskhalava, Nana, and Aleksandr Karpov. "INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN FOREST INDUSTRY." Forestry Engineering Journal 9, no. 4 (2020): 162–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.34220/issn.2222-7962/2019.4/18.
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Russia is the richest country with forest resources. It accounts for 22 % of the world's forest cover and half of the world's coniferous wood reserves. According to forecasts, the demand for commercial wood will increase by about 150 million cubic meters by 2030. There is only one real source – Russia's reserves. Reserves today amount to more than 83 billion cubic meters. For enterprises of the Arkhangelsk region, the main markets for woodworking products are China, the USA, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Egypt. Based on this, the study has formed a logistic export system for three transportation options. In addition, studies have been carried out on the basis of UNCTAD, EUROSTAT and FAO materials, as well as SEARATES technical and economic data. When choosing a logistics system option, an integrated economic assessment of costs by components has been used: material flow, information flow, and logistics intermediaries. The study has examined six potential routes for delivering timber between ports in East Asia (Shanghai) and Europe (Rotterdam). Based on the results of the research, the following conclusions can be drawn. The study has addressed the issue of transportation along the Northern Sea Route (HIAR). Transportation along this route is possible only in the event of global warming and accelerated retreat of the Arctic sea ice. The economic strength for distance savings from Asia to Europe makes the northern route a likely driver of change in transportation networks
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Naghshpour, Shahdad, and Bruno S. Sergi. "The economics of international trade in south-eastern Europe." SEER 11, no. 2 (2008): 199–218. http://dx.doi.org/10.5771/1435-2869-2008-2-199.
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Diebold, William. "American Trade Policy and Western Europe." Government and Opposition 22, no. 3 (1987): 282–301. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0017257x00700066.
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The eve of a major multilateral trade negotiation is a time to meditate. This is not because the atmosphere is beauteous, calm and free. Nor is it about to become so because major governments, after years of haggling, are ready — more or less — to enter the round. Indeed, the Conventions of trade negotiation are antithetical to a calm and clear understanding of what combination of aspiration and realism will do most to improve the conditions of international trade. In such negotiations, the general objective — the reduction of trade barriers — is referred to as a concession to others. ‘Standing firm’ and other forms of negativism are praised. Brinkmanship is encouraged— at least among those strong enough to do damage.
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Anthony, Ian. "The arms trade and Europe." International Affairs 72, no. 2 (1996): 375. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2624384.
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GORINA, Ganna, Yuliia BOCHAROVA, Tetiana KOZHUKHOVA, Natalia IVANOVA, and Galina BOHATYRYOVA. "THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN TOURISM SERVICES IN EUROPE." GeoJournal of Tourism and Geosites 43, no. 3 (2022): 1091–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.30892/gtg.43330-924.
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European tourism suffered the greatest crisis on record in 2020-2021 following an unprecedented health, social and economic emergency with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and quarantine restrictions. Thus, the aim of the article is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on international trade in tourism services in Europe, as well as determining the development trends of international trade in tourism services in the regions of Europe and EU countries in the pre- and post-coronavirus period. To achieve the goal of the scientific research a quantitative research method, literature review method, retrospective analysis, statistical analysis has been used. In the study, secondary data of the international tourist arrivals in Europe, export/import of tourism services by European regions and EU in the pre-coronavirus and post-coronavirus period has been analyzed. The following trends have been identified: 1) an undulating trend in tourism exports in Europe in general, and European regions in particular, characterized by regional differentiation; 2) an alternation of peaks and troughs in the volume of imports of tourism services in Europe and a reversal of the main upward downward trend in all regions of Europe in 2020; 3) a differentiation of the response of European regions to the challenges of 2020 - regions with a passive trade balance showed a reduction in the deficit, while regions with an active trade balance, on the contrary, reduced its surplus; 4) a differentiation of the share of import/export of tourism services of total trade in services by regions of Europe with a gradual upward trend and a rapid downward trend break in 2020.
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DEBAERE, PETER. "Small fish–big issues: the effect of trade policy on the global shrimp market." World Trade Review 9, no. 2 (2010): 353–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s147474561000011x.
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AbstractIt is a well-established theoretical result that the trade policy of a large country can directly affect its own and other countries' welfares by affecting international goods' prices. However, there exist very few empirical studies that analyze the effect of trade policy on international prices. With detailed data on unit values and tariffs, I show how policy actions in Europe disrupted the global shrimp market in a non-negligible way and set the stage for the anti-dumping case in the United States. The loss of Thailand's preferential trade status in Europe and the international differences in food-safety standards during the antibiotics crisis shifted especially Thai, Vietnamese, and Chinese shrimp exports away from Europe toward the United States in the late 1990s and early 2000s. I document how those shifting markets have decreased US prices for shrimp significantly compared to those in Europe.
Thèses sur le sujet "International trade – Europe"
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Thanagopal, Thannaletchimy. "Estimating price and quality elasticities of international trade." Thesis, Paris 1, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PA010070.
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Estimer le prix et la qualité de l'élasticité du commerce international<br>This thesis is a compilation of three essays that estimate the ‘true’ trade price elasticity of demand while adjusting for the effect of quality in the trade models. Quality in this thesis is introduced via our own proxy for quality known as ‘knowledge’. This proxy takes into account not only direct expenditures (and hence stocks) spent on research and development but also indirect expenditures (and stocks) through positive externalities originating from innovation efforts by other countries and other industries. In addition, the main trade database used in this thesis is the WIOD (World Input-Output Database) which provides bilateral trade flows, at the industrial level for 35 industries in manufacturing and services based on the ISIC Rev. 2 (International Standard Industry Classification Revision 2) over a period of 17 years (from 1995 to 2011). The first essay, “Analyzing BRIC Competitiveness in EU-14, Japan, US and Norway” looks at the competitiveness of the emerging nations notably the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) compared to the EU-14 countries (excluding Luxembourg), Japan, the United States and Norway in 15 distinct manufacturing goods industries over a period of 16 years (1996 to 2011). We use the CMSA (Constant Market Share Analysis) econometrically to dissect the competitive effect of the BRICs in terms of price and quality effects. The CMSA is useful in explaining the gain in export market shares of a country through two terms - the structural effect and the competitive effect. However, the model fails to define the type of competitiveness - whether a country is competitive in terms of prices (price competitiveness) or in terms of non-price factors such as quality and variety (non-price competitiveness). This essay attempts to improve this analysis by estimating individual price and non-price competitive effects using an export market share equation. We find evidence of the competitive effect in BRIC exports towards major industrialized countries namely EU-14 (excluding Luxembourg), Japan, United States and Norway. We also find that the gain in BRIC export market share is largely attributed to better price competition rather than non-price competition. The industrial results, however, indicate the presence of non-price competitiveness in selected homogeneous product industries during this period, suggesting the beginning of a shift in BRIC export competitiveness. […]
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Attour, Suleiman I. "International advertising practices of multinational companies in Europe and the Middle-East." Thesis, City University London, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.312905.
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Eeckhout, Piet. "The european internal market and international trade : a legal analysis /." Oxford : Clarendon press, 1994. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb37491371g.
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Binti, Zakaria Noor Aini. "Trade Barriers in Forest Industry between Malaysia and Europe." Phd thesis, AgroParisTech, 2011. http://pastel.archives-ouvertes.fr/pastel-00750922.
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This study analyses the international timber trade between Malaysia and Europe with respect to the importance of environmental issues on trade and the role of Malaysia as a major timber exporter to Europe. It also evaluates the comparative advantage of Malaysian wood products and the willingness of French consumers (to represent European communities) to pay for sustainable forest management. The first part gives an overview the clashes of perception between developed and developing countries on the environmental concerns over trade. It was observed that environmental standards may act as non-tariff barriers to exporting countries. In addition, the stringent requirements posed by importing countries on technical, marking and labelling to some extent provide unnecessary barriers to trade. The second part deals with the role of Malaysia as a key player in the tropical timber trade. This part evaluates the main export market for Malaysian wood products to the world. For the purpose of this thesis, the analysis focuses on the European market. From the observations, it was found that the export of wooden furniture surpassed major timber exports in 2004. However, to penetrate the European market, Malaysia has to compete with the Chinese with their lower cost tropical wood products, and Brazil with their advantage in certification and labelling of tropical wood products. In tandem with that, the commitment towards sustainable forest management at national level causes shortage of raw materials in Malaysia. To a certain extent, the internal and external factors create necessary challenges to enter the European market. In the third part, the Balassa approach was used to classify the comparative advantage of Malaysia's twenty one types of wood products in Europe. It was estimated that Malaysia had high comparative advantage only in five products which were mechanized and intermediary industrial products. The products identified were sawn wood, wooden mouldings, plywood, veneer and builders' joinery and carpentry. The remaining products had lower comparative advantage and disadvantage to export to the European market based on the Balassa index. In the last part, the estimation on the willingness to pay for sustainable forest management attributes was conducted. Besides that, additional attributes such as fair trade and wood origin were included. A questionnaire was set up using all the attributes reflected in the hypothetical wood flooring product in the market. Based on the result, consumers were willing to pay the highest for the presence of fair trade and wood origin (in this study referring to French origin); nevertheless they were still willing to pay for sustainable aspects of forest. However, the willingness to pay for all the attributes was altered depending on the respondents' knowledge of forest labelling, their attitudes towards environmental preservation, living area, education level, type of job and income level. In the overall finding of the thesis, all the results from each part were synthesized in a systemic approach simultaneously deliberating on the macro and microeconomic perspectives as well as the dimensions on demand and supply. Overall, the findings suggest that the challenges and constraints facing the Malaysian timber industry indirectly shaped the export of Malaysian wooden products. Malaysia has adapted by going into value-added products to lessen the impact of environment-related trade barriers and to circumvent the shortage of raw materials supply. Malaysia has successfully customized the wooden products to the sustainability and legality requirements of the European market by pursuing the national certification (Malaysian Timber Certification) and being committed to sustainable forest management objectives.
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Horne, Cynthia Michalski. "Are NMEs our enemies? : non-market economies and western trade policies /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/10703.
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Ko, Man Ching. "Emerging stock markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia." CSUSB ScholarWorks, 2005. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd-project/2894.
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The purpose of this research is to evaluate the performance of the emerging stock markets in three regions. The regions chosen as our testing targets are Europe, The Middle East, and Asia. Performance for 2002 to 2004 will be compared to the U.S. stock market.
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Fink, Gerhard. "New protectionism in Central Europe. Exchange rate adjustment, customs tariffs and non-tariff measures." Forschungsinstitut für Europafragen, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 1999. http://epub.wu.ac.at/970/1/document.pdf.
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Many of the 10 Central European candidate member countries for EU accession entered into the transition period with strongly undervalued exchange rates to stimulate exports and protect domestic industries. However, this policy was not maintained. During 1993-1995 real currency appreciation increased competitive pressure by foreign firms. To protect domestic firms governments applied high third country tariffs, temporary import taxes, and numerous administrative barriers to trade. As countervailing pressure by the EU and the USA increased and current account deficits soared in 1996 and 1997, the CE-10 more and more brought exchange rate policies in line with the changes in purchasing power parity. However, petty protection and harassment of importers prevails. (author's abstract)<br>Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut
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Boodhoo, Niala. "The United States and the politics of trade: the banana war with Europe and the Caribbean." FIU Digital Commons, 2000. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1729.
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This thesis examines the involvement of the United States in the decade-long trade dispute before the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the European Union's preferential banana regime. Washington's justification for bringing this case to the WTO comes from Section 301 of the U.S. trade act, which allows for disputes to be undertaken if U.S. "interests" are violated; however, this is the first case ever undertaken by the United States that does not directly threaten any American banana industry, nor affect any American jobs. Why, then, would the United States involve itself in this European-Caribbean-Latin American dispute?
It is the contention of this thesis that the United States thrust itself headlong into this debate for two reasons: domestically, the United States Trade Representative came under pressure, via the White House and Congress, from Chiquita CEO Carl Lindner, who in the past decade donated more than $7.1 million to American politicians to take the case to the WTO. Internationally, the United States used the case as an opportunity to assert its power over Europe, with the Eastern Caribbean islands being caught in the economic crossfire. According to existing literature, in undertaking this case, the United States did as any nation would: it operated within both domestic and international levels, satisfying at each level key interests, with the overall goal of maintaining the nation's best interests.
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CHOBANOVA, Yordanka. "MNEs in the CEECs : shaping the microeconomic architecture of states in the context of EU integration : the cases of Unilever, Nestlé and InBev." Doctoral thesis, European University Institute, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/10461.
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Defence date: 13 December 2007<br>Examining Board: Prof. Martin Rhodes, (University of Denver/EUI) ; Prof. Colin Crouch, (Warwick Business School) ; Prof. Rajneesh Narula, (Reading Business School) ; Prof. Mladen Velev, (Technical University Sofia)<br>PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digital archive of EUI PhD theses<br>Using Systems of Innovation Approach (SI) and International Business (IB) literature, this dissertation analyzes the level of embeddedness of Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). MNEs are discussed as they link the economy of the host country with the global economy by their regional and global networks. The expansion and successful embeddedness of West European multinational firms is crucial for the industrial integration of CEECs into the EU. The focus of the study is on the largest food processing companies, which invested in the region : namely Nestlé, Unilever and InBev. The dissertation discusses the motives of investment and the entry strategies of food MNEs, outlines their contribution to the local development and stresses the national actors as forces to embedded FDI. The research discovered that EU membership facilitated the processes of global reorganizations of Nestlé, Unilever and InBev in CEE. All of the three MNEs, which form the object of this research, closed partially or completely plants all over CEE (and Western Europe). Hence, in a liberal trade regime it is very difficult to talk about long-term embeddedness of MNEs. It seems that the global strategies of the companies and the size of the market are the factor, which pre-determines the level of embeddedness of food MNEs in a certain economy and not so much the national actors and institutions.
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Colson-Duparchy, Alexia. "Bridges, hoops and pools : international film co-production : the interface between culture and trade." Thesis, McGill University, 2002. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=78210.
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International film co-productions are sometimes thought of by the Americans as a form of financing providing the U.S. with the ability to sell works to its most important export market, Europe. Europe prefers thinking of it as way to provide its market with works that reflect European culture and ideals. This thesis questions the reality of such a statement, using the examples of the EU, the U.S. and Canada.<br>The author first explains the mechanism of co-production within the framework of a presentation of the methods of film financing. Follows a twofold discussion on the current nature of international co-productions, on both the international and national levels.<br>A considerable portion of this work examines the terms of the debate about the interplay between culture and trade. As an instrument used in the audiovisual industry, therefore strongly connected to cultural industries, international co-production is indeed an ideal model to represent the tensions existing between culture and global trade. This thesis sets international co-production up as a symbol of the interface between culture and trade.<br>Follows a debate on the congruity of the existing global and regional trade agreements for the protection of a culture always weaker in its diversity and propagation. With the prospect of the imminent phasing out of the sectoral exemptions allowed by the GATS, the inadequacy of the NAFTA cultural exemption and current quota policy systems, what would be best to calm down the tensions between culture and trade? Three solutions are discussed here: the New International Instrument on Cultural Diversity; a powerful competitor to the American majors such as Vivendi-Universal, and the technique of co-ventures.
Livres sur le sujet "International trade – Europe"
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Gács, János, and Georg Winckler, eds. International Trade and Restructuring in Eastern Europe. Physica-Verlag HD, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-28276-2.
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Hamilton, Carl B. Opening up international trade in Eastern Europe. StockholmUniversity, Institute for International Economic Studies, 1992.
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Ilan, Alon, and Welsh Dianne H. B, eds. International franchising in industrialized markets: Western and Northern Europe. CCH Inc., 2003.
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Csaba, László. The political economy of trade regimes in Central Europe. Centre for Economic Policy Research, 1994.
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Rouffignac, Peter Danton de. Profiting from Europe: How hi-tech companies canbenefit from the EC. Computer Weekly Publications, 1991.
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Rocca, Jim. Latest international institute reflects a changed Europe. Library of Congress, Copyright Office, 1992.
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Henriot, Alain. L' Europe face à la concurrence asiatique. Harmattan, 2001.
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Henriot, Alain. L' Europe face à la concurrence asiatique. L'Harmattan, 2001.
Trouver le texte intégralChapitres de livres sur le sujet "International trade – Europe"
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Mitchell, B. R. "External Trade." In International Historical Statistics Europe 1750–1988. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-12791-7_5.
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Michida, Etsuyo. "Regulatory Diffusion from Europe to Asia." In Regulations and International Trade. Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-55041-1_3.
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Smith, Alan. "International Trade Theory and EU Enlargement." In The Return to Europe. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-62942-8_2.
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Kristjánsdóttir, Helga, Guðmundur Kristján Óskarsson, Jón Þorvaldur Heiðarsson, and Sigurður Guðjónsson. "International trade between the EFTA trade bloc and China." In Asian Trade and Investment in Europe. Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003274933-1.
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Viju, Crina, and William A. Kerr. "Do the Rules of International Trade Constrain Protection? Global Recession and EU Trade Policy." In Economic Crisis in Europe. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137005236_6.
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Bertilorenzi, Marco. "The International Chamber of Commerce." In Free Trade and Social Welfare in Europe. Routledge, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780429023941-6.
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Rosati, Dariusz K. "The CMEA Demise, Trade Restructuring, and Trade Destruction in Eastern Europe: Initial Assessment." In International Studies in Economics and Econometrics. Springer Netherlands, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2206-1_5.
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Togan, Subidey. "An inventory of Turkey’s international trade and investment agreements." In Transition in Central and Eastern Europe. Springer Netherlands, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-1614-2_18.
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Burckhardt, Christian. "The European Union as an Actor in International Trade Relations." In Global Power Europe - Vol. 2. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-32416-1_16.
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Bano, Sayeeda. "International Trade in Services: A World Trade Organization and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Perspective." In Asia and Europe in the New Global System. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230503069_6.
Texte intégralActes de conférences sur le sujet "International trade – Europe"
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ZHANG, QIAN-NAN, XIAO-NA HE, and MIRAJ AHMED BHUIYAN. "AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF TRADE STATUS AND DETERMINANTS BETWEEN CHINA AND "ONE BELT- ONE ROAD" COUNTRIES-BASED ON TRADE GRAVITY MODEL." In 2021 International Conference on Management, Economics, Business and Information Technology. Destech Publications, Inc., 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.12783/dtem/mebit2021/35616.
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“One Road-One Belt”, (Belt and Road Initiative, BRI) reminiscent of the Silk Road, is a massive infrastructure and trade project, initiated by China; that would stretch from East Asia to Europe, somehow recognized by the international community. Despite of criticism of this project, it is considered as an effective tool for promoting regional and bilateral trade deals. In this paper we have pointed out the problems that hindered the bilateral trades among countries along the route. Based on Trade gravity Model; bilateral trade model between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” was empirically tested in the article, followed by some suggestions.
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Artekin, Ayşe Özge, and Mahmut Sami Duran. "DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN TURKEY: TRENDS AND CHANGES." In 12th International Scientific Conference „Business and Management 2022“. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/bm.2022.713.
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Turkey, which is the connection point between Asia and Europe and is in a strategically important position, needs new markets where it can implement an effective commercial policy. According to the data of the Asian Devel-opment Bank, Asian countries, which are expected to meet more than half of the world production in 2050 with their rapid growth, and African countries, which are seen as a virgin market and advantageous in terms of cheap raw mate-rial import, offer Turkey a good market opportunity as an alternative to European region trade. On the other hand, it is expected that the agreements made by Turkey will increase the commercial potential of the country. The aim of this study is to show the cooperation with different international economic integrations, that is, the change in Turkey’s direction in trade, by reducing the risks and disadvantages of being tied to a certain region in terms of trade. The study deals with the Turkish foreign trade policy, competitiveness and trade data from the period of open-ing up after 1980 to the present, in certain periods. At the same time, it is stated in the study that with the change of Turkey’s trade policy, the share of EU countries in total foreign trade has decreased in the last twenty years, and the di-rection of Turkey’s European-intensive foreign trade has expanded to the whole world, especially to Asia. It is predicted that Turkey’s economic and political efficiency will increase with its new policies and strong commercial connections.
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Radulescu, Ionrazvan, Carmen Ghituleasa, Emilia Visileanu, Radu Popescu, Marius Iordanescu, and Ladislava Zaklova. "BRANCH-RELATED TERMS FOR TEXTILE PROFESSIONALS IN BUSINESS AND TRADE." In eLSE 2013. Carol I National Defence University Publishing House, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.12753/2066-026x-13-275.
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Proper adaptation to industry trends represents nowadays one of the key success factors. The textile industry is one of the most dynamic industries, with strong market requirements and links to tradition in Europe. Due to the harsh international competition a shift in the textile industry in Europe has been produced from clothing-apparel sector to technical textiles sector. The technical textiles are meant for various applications (like agriculture, personal protection, medicine, environment etc.) and involve a high level of knowledge in textile machinery and high added value for the finished products. One of the main issues stated in the Strategic Research Agenda of the European Technology Platform for Textiles and Clothing (EURATEX*, 2006) is the move from commodities to specialty products with flexible high-tech processes, which is a development direction for the future of the European textile industry. The strong developments of textile international business bring new demand ? to have a Multilanguage flexible tool for branch-related terms. Businessman are often good in trade but without professional knowledge. They have to describe technical aspects, but do not know the proper expression. In order to help them were accomplished the Leonardo da Vinci-TOI projects Fashion School I and II and a new proposal is in preparation for the 2013 Call ? GUIDETEX. Within the Fashion School projects I and II an on-line explanatory dictionary in 16 European language versions was accomplished (www.texsite.info). This dictionary includes 2000 branch expressions with definitions in the textile-clothing field. A brief summary of the projects results show that after 3 years form the project end, the average visitation of the portal is of 49109 visits each month. As target group of the project were firstly businessman who deal with textiles and clothes, students of vocational education and professionals who export their products. The 2013 GUIDETEX proposal envisages the enlargement of the portal with branch-related terms in technical textiles. Several professionals in the textile industry do need a re-orientation of their business towards high-added-value products in technical textiles, as set by the EURATEX strategy. This is one of the means for supporting the knowledge-based European industry business and trade.
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Ignjatijević, Svetlana, and Jelena Vapa Tankosić. "ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN PERSONAL AND BUSINESS TRAVEL SERVICES." In The Sixth International Scientific Conference - TOURISM CHALLENGES AMID COVID-19, Thematic Proceedings. FACULTY OF HOTEL MANAGEMENT AND TOURISM IN VRNJAČKA BANJA UNIVERSITY OF KRAGUJEVAC, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.52370/tisc21517si.
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The world today is facing one of the worst pandemics in modern history. Around the world, financial markets are in serious difficulties, the consequences of which have begun to spill over into the tourism sector. Covid-19 has caused sharp contractions in economic development, reduced mobility and has contacted tourism flows as the international tourist arrivals in most world sub-regions recorded declines from -60% to -70%. The aim of this paper is to analyze the international travel in the field of personal and business travel in the period of 2010-2019 exported to and imported from the Republic of Serbia. The findings show that the international travel for personal purposes has achieved the greatest value over the years, the second place is taken by travel for business purposes, whereas education-related travel achieved the third place. Exported and imported values of the category Travel, Personal and Travel, Business has the highest value of exports and imports from Serbia to European Union (EU 28), with Germany, Greece, Austria and Italy having the highest flows of exported and imported values. In 2020 Asia and the Pacific, was the region to suffer the hardest impact of Covid-19. On the second place there is Europe, followed by the Americas, Africa and the Middle East.
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Savrul, Mesut, and Ahmet İncekara. "Do Economic Integrations Improve E-Commerce Performance in Member States? A Study on the European Single Market." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c14.02674.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Many of the international trade theories hold the view that reducing the barriers to foreign trade will result in an increase in welfare in all the countries that are party to the trade. The regional integrations established in different parts of the world in the period following the Second World War enabled this theory to be translated into practice, at least on a regional basis. The European Single Market, which was founded in 1993, is significantly different from the economic integrations established in the aforementioned period by incorporating many innovations. One of these innovations is that the Digital Single Market strategy pursues to guarantee better access for customers and enterprises to online goods and services across Europe, which was put into effect in 2015.
 The contribution of economic integrations on e-commerce performance of the member countries has been examined in the context of the European Single Market in this study. In the study, e-commerce statistics of the European Single Market countries covering the years 2010-2021 and the Digital Economy and Society Index covering the years 2017-2022 were used. The data is collected from Eurostat, Benchmarking Digital Europe and European Commission, Digital Scoreboard databases. The results of the study present that the Digital Single Market Strategy has contributed to the less developed countries of the Single Market rather than the developed countries.
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Akbulut, Gizem. "The Role of Extensive and Intensive Margins in Export Growth of Turkey to Central and Eastern European Countries." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c07.01643.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In the recent years, Central and Eastern Europe Countries-10 (CEEC-10) countries are implementing policies for developing in international trade relations and these countries are relatively small and open economies. On the other hand, they increase both provide a dynamic increase in exports and export market share, to facilitate the European Union (EU) and their activities to integrate into world trade.
 The purpose of this study, with CEEC-10 of Turkey’s sectoral export growth rates decomposes into extensive and intensive margins. Also intensive margin decomposes into price and quantity components. By building on the methodology pioneered by Feenstra (1994) and Hummels and Klenow (2005) and then “the decomposition of export growth rates” method developed by Bingzhan (2011). Intensive margin is the growth in products that were exported in both periods. Extensive margin is the growth in product variety or new trade partners. In the empirical part of the study were used the BACI international trade database from CEPII. The database provides the export values and quantities for Turkey to CEEC-10 at the Harmonized System’s (HS96) six-digit level over period 2006 to 2013.
 Foreign trade activities of countries is an important channel both to gain of international qualification and to the realization of economic growths and/ or in terms of sustainability of the current growth rates. According to results of a study, with CEEC-10 Turkey’s export is mainly explained generally by the quantity growth rather than price growth. In other words, export growth carries with the low added value product.
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Storhaug, Gaute, Erlend Moe, and Gabriel Holtsmark. "Measurements of Wave Induced Hull Girder Vibrations of an Ore Carrier in Different Trades." In 25th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2006-92284.
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Currently, the conventional wave loading is the only effect considered in fatigue assessment of ships. DNV has recently confirmed that fatigue damage from wave induced vibrations may be of similar magnitude as from the conventional wave loading (Moe et al. 2005). A 40% contribution to the total fatigue damage in deck amidships is documented through extensive measurements onboard an ore carrier (the reference ship) trading in the North Atlantic. The effect of strengthening the vessel, increasing the natural frequency by 10%, is ineffective to reduce the relative magnitude of the vibration damage. The wave induced vibration, often referred to as whipping and/or springing, does contribute to fatigue damage also for other ship types and trades (Moe et al. 2005). This paper considers the effect of trade. It indicates when the wave induced vibrations should be accounted for in the design phase with respect to fatigue damage. A second ore carrier (the target ship) is monitored with respect to the wave induced hull vibrations and their fatigue effect. Stress records from strain sensors located in the midship deck region are supplemented by wave radar and wind records. Based on the measurements, the vibration stress response and associated vibration induced fatigue damage are determined for varying wind- and wave forces and relative headings. While the reference ship operates in the Canada to Europe ore trade, the target ship trades between Canada and Europe, Brazil and Europe, and South Africa and Europe. A procedure is suggested by Moe et al. (2005) to estimate the long term fatigue damage for different trades by utilizing the measured data from the reference ship. The vibration and wave damage are considered separately. By comparing the measured wave environment and the DNV North Atlantic scatter diagram, the effect of routing indicated a reduction of the fatigue damage by one third. A slightly revised procedure is applied to estimate the effect of trade for the second ore carrier, comparing the long term predicted fatigue damage with the measured fatigue damage. The importance of trade is confirmed. However, the relative contribution of the vibration damage is shown to increase in less harsh environments. The target ship vibrates more than the reference ship for the same trade and Beaufort strength. The vibration damage of the target ship constitutes 56% of the total measured damage, and the high natural frequency is observed to have no significant effect.
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Steinhauser, Dušan, Stanislav Zábojník, and Zuzana Borovská. "Impact of the US Trade Policy on Trade Flows Distortion of Selected Commodity Groups." In The 20th International Joint Conference: Central and Eastern Europe in the Changing Business Environment. Prague University of Economics and Business, Oeconomica Publishing House, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18267/pr.2020.cer.2395.25.
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Aanstoos, Ted A., and Manfred Schmiemann. "Evaluating the Economic Impact of Harmonized Product Standards in the European Union." In ASME 2005 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2005-79257.
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After its 2004 enlargement to 25 member nations, the European Union, with a population of 452 million and a GDP surpassing $10 trillion, represents one of the most powerful economic engines in the world, and is the primary trading and investment partner with the US. However, in spite of the mostly integrated single market in Europe, internal trade between member nations can be hindered by competing national level technical standards. To address such inefficiencies, the European Commission issues standardization directives under the New Approach doctrine, adopted in 1985 to harmonize product standards in Europe. This paper attempts to evaluate the effectiveness of the New Approach by analyzing European production and trade data, internal and external, of certain products governed by New Approach norms, in order to determine if economic activity in those products was significantly impacted by the streamlined standards, while controlling for other socioeconomic factors.
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Cui, Riming, Van Day Dao, and Kieu Oanh Do. "Research on the Impact of Trade Facilitation on Trade Between Vietnam and Europe Empirical Analysis Based on Commercial Gravity Model." In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Economy, Management and Entrepreneurship (ICOEME 2019). Atlantis Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/icoeme-19.2019.36.
Texte intégralRapports d'organisations sur le sujet "International trade – Europe"
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Russo, Margherita, Fabrizio Alboni, Jorge Carreto Sanginés, et al. The Changing Shape of the World Automobile Industry: A Multilayer Network Analysis of International Trade in Components and Parts. Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.36687/inetwp173.
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In 2018, after 25 years of the North America Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the United States requested new rules which, among other requirements, increased the regional con-tent in the production of automotive components and parts traded between the three part-ner countries, United States, Canada and Mexico. Signed by all three countries, the new trade agreement, USMCA, is to go into force in 2022. Nonetheless, after the 2020 Presi-dential election, the new treaty's future is under discussion, and its impact on the automo-tive industry is not entirely defined. Another significant shift in this industry – the acceler-ated rise of electric vehicles – also occurred in 2020: while the COVID-19 pandemic largely halted most plants in the automotive value chain all over the world, at the reopen-ing, the tide is now running against internal combustion engine vehicles, at least in the an-nouncements and in some large investments planned in Europe, Asia and the US. The definition of the pre-pandemic situation is a very helpful starting point for the analysis of the possible repercussions of the technological and geo-political transition, which has been accelerated by the epidemic, on geographical clusters and sectorial special-isations of the main regions and countries. This paper analyses the trade networks emerg-ing in the past 25 years in a new analytical framework. In the economic literature on inter-national trade, the study of the automotive global value chains has been addressed by us-ing network analysis, focusing on the centrality of geographical regions and countries while largely overlooking the contribution of countries' bilateral trading in components and parts as structuring forces of the subnetwork of countries and their specific position in the overall trade network. The paper focuses on such subnetworks as meso-level structures emerging in trade network over the last 25 years. Using the Infomap multilayer clustering algorithm, we are able to identify clusters of countries and their specific trades in the automotive internation-al trade network and to highlight the relative importance of each cluster, the interconnec-tions between them, and the contribution of countries and of components and parts in the clusters. We draw the data from the UN Comtrade database of directed export and import flows of 30 automotive components and parts among 42 countries (accounting for 98% of world trade flows of those items). The paper highlights the changes that occurred over 25 years in the geography of the trade relations, with particular with regard to denser and more hierarchical network gener-ated by Germany’s trade relations within EU countries and by the US preferential trade agreements with Canada and Mexico, and the upsurge of China. With a similar overall va-riety of traded components and parts within the main clusters (dominated respectively by Germany, US and Japan-China), the Infomap multilayer analysis singles out which com-ponents and parts determined the relative positions of countries in the various clusters and the changes over time in the relative positions of countries and their specialisations in mul-tilateral trades. Connections between clusters increase over time, while the relative im-portance of the main clusters and of some individual countries change significantly. The focus on US and Mexico and on Germany and Central Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) will drive the comparative analysis.
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Triakina, Olga O., Olena O. Pavlenko, Nataliia P. Volkova, and Darja Kassim. Usage of E-learning Tools in Self-education of Government Officers Involved in Global Trade Activities. [б. в.], 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.31812/123456789/2670.
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The article concerns the issue of e-learning tools implementation, including the Customs Learning and Knowledge Community electronic platform designed by the World Customs Organization and the Trade Facilitation Implementation Guide case studies collected by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, into the self-education process of current government employees (within in-service training) and future public officers (within master’s programs) connected with international trade transactions. The authors give a description of the content and characteristical features of existing e-learning instruments related to training of professionals in Customs and trade fields as well as of certain tasks developed by the authors. The efficiency of the abovementioned e-learning tools has been experimentally proved in the paper, which has shown that these tools promote the growth of the professional competence of government officers and give a great opportunity for them to be involved in life-long learning to acquire various professional knowledge and skills.
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Gomez Garcia, Olga, Henry Mooney, David Rosenblatt, et al. Caribbean Quarterly Bulletin: Volume 10: Issue 1, May 2021. Inter-American Development Bank, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003265.
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Countries around the world have endured over a year of extreme uncertainty in the context of the COVID-19 crisis, and economies in the Caribbean have suffered more than most. But with the increasing availability of vaccines and prospects for a resumption of international travel, light is emerging at the end of the Pandemic tunnel. With this in mind, The Inter-American Development Bank Caribbean1 Departments most recent Quarterly Bulletin reviews the latest available information regarding the crisis impacts on citizens, their economies, and key factors that will determine the speed and depth of recovery. As also discussed in previous editions, prospects for tourism-dependent economies will depend heavily on vaccine penetration and border normalization in source countries particularly the United States and Western Europe, while commodity-intensive economies could benefit from upward revisions to global demand growth estimates. All countries in the region can do much to support a rapid recovery through forward-looking policies aimed at ensuring they are well positioned to take advantage of post-Pandemic preferences with respect to travel and tourism, services trade, and investment. Our latest report considers these issues, what may lie ahead, and how counties can best position themselves for a recovery in 2021 and beyond.
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Jones, Emily, Beatriz Kira, Anna Sands, and Danilo B. Garrido Alves. The UK and Digital Trade: Which way forward? Blavatnik School of Government, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35489/bsg-wp-2021/038.
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The internet and digital technologies are upending global trade. Industries and supply chains are being transformed, and the movement of data across borders is now central to the operation of the global economy. Provisions in trade agreements address many aspects of the digital economy – from cross-border data flows, to the protection of citizens’ personal data, and the regulation of the internet and new technologies like artificial intelligence and algorithmic decision-making. The UK government has identified digital trade as a priority in its Global Britain strategy and one of the main sources of economic growth to recover from the pandemic. It wants the UK to play a leading role in setting the international standards and regulations that govern the global digital economy. The regulation of digital trade is a fast-evolving and contentious issue, and the US, European Union (EU), and China have adopted different approaches. Now that the UK has left the EU, it will need to navigate across multiple and often conflicting digital realms. The UK needs to decide which policy objectives it will prioritise, how to regulate the digital economy domestically, and how best to achieve its priorities when negotiating international trade agreements. There is an urgent need to develop a robust, evidence-based approach to the UK’s digital trade strategy that takes into account the perspectives of businesses, workers, and citizens, as well as the approaches of other countries in the global economy. This working paper aims to inform UK policy debates by assessing the state of play in digital trade globally. The authors present a detailed analysis of five policy areas that are central to discussions on digital trade for the UK: cross-border data flows and privacy; internet access and content regulation; intellectual property and innovation; e-commerce (including trade facilitation and consumer protection); and taxation (customs duties on e-commerce and digital services taxes). In each of these areas the authors compare and contrast the approaches taken by the US, EU and China, discuss the public policy implications, and examine the choices facing the UK.
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Quak, Evert-jan. The Trend Of “De-Risking” In International Finance and Its Impact on Small Island Developing States. Institute of Development Studies, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/k4d.2022.079.
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This rapid review synthesises the literature from academic sources, knowledge institutions, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and trusted independent media outlets on the challenges small island development states (SIDS) face when they lose correspondent banking relationships (CBRs). The rapid review concludes that, although the loss of CBRs is a global phenomenon, regions with SIDS, such as the Pacific and Caribbean, have seen the highest rates of withdrawals. During the last decade, local and regional banks in SIDS have lost and continue to lose bank accounts at large global banks to a critical level, sometimes having only one or none CBRs with banks in major economies, such as the Unites States, the United Kingdom, the European Union or Australia. This means that local banks have reduced access to financial services related to cross-border financial transactions, impacting on remittances and trade finance.
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Dudoit, Alain, Molivann Panot, and Thierry Warin. Towards a multi-stakeholder Intermodal Trade-Transportation Data-Sharing and Knowledge Exchange Network. CIRANO, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.54932/mvne7282.
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The performance of supply chains used to be mainly the concern of academics and professionals who studied the potential efficiencies and risks associated with this aspect of globalisation. In 2021, major disruptions in this critical sector of our economies are making headlines and attracting the attention of policy makers around the world. Supply chain bottlenecks create shortages, fuel inflation, and undermine economic recovery. This report provides a transversal and multidisciplinary analysis of the challenges and opportunities regarding data interoperability and data sharing as they relate to the ‘Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Seaway Trade Corridor’ (GLSLTC)’s intermodal transportation and trade data strategy. The size and scope of this trade corridor are only matched by the complexity of its multimodal freight transportation systems and growing urbanization on both sides of the Canada-US border. This complexity is exacerbated by the lack of data interoperability and effective collaborations between the different stakeholders within the various jurisdictions and amongst them. Our analytical work relies on : 1) A review of the relevant documentation on the latest challenges to supply chains (SC), intermodal freight transport and international trade, identifying any databases that are to be used.; 2) A comparative review of selected relevant initiatives to give insights into the best practices in digital supply chains implemented in Canada, the United States, and the European Union.; 3) Interviews and discussions with experts from Transport Canada, Statistics Canada, the Canadian Centre on Transportation Data (CCTD) and Global Affairs Canada, as well as with CIRANO’s research community and four partner institutions to identify databases and data that they use in their research related to transportation and trade relevant data availabilities and methodologies as well as joint research opportunities. Its main findings can be summarized as follow: GLSLTC is characterized by its critical scale, complexity, and strategic impact as North America’s most vital trade corridor in the foreseeable further intensification of continental trade. 4% of Canadian GDP is attributed to the Transportation and Logistics sector (2018): $1 trillion of goods moved every year: Goods and services imports are equivalent to 33% of Canada’s GDP and goods and services exports equivalent to 32%. The transportation sector is a key contributor to the achievement of net-zero emissions commitment by 2050. All sectors of the Canadian economy are affected by global supply chain disruptions. Uncertainty and threats extend well beyond the COVID-19 Pandemic. “De-globalization” and increasing supply chains regionalization pressures are mounting. Innovation and thus economic performance—increasingly hinges on the quantity and quality of data. Data is transforming Canada’s economy/society and is now at the center of global trade “Transport data is becoming less available: Canada needs to make data a priority for a national transportation strategy.” * “How the Government of Canada collects, manages, and governs data—and how it accesses and shares data with other governments, sectors, and Canadians—must change.”
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Kira, Beatriz, Rutendo Tavengerwei, and Valary Mumbo. Points à examiner à l'approche des négociations de Phase II de la ZLECAf: enjeux de la politique commerciale numérique dans quatre pays d'Afrique subsaharienne. Digital Pathways at Oxford, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.35489/bsg-dp-wp_2022/01.
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Realities such as the COVID-19 pandemic have expedited the move to online operations, highlighting the undeniable fact that the world is continuing to go digital. This emphasises the need for policymakers to regulate in a manner that allows them to harness digital trade benefits while also avoiding associated risk. However, given that digital trade remains unco-ordinated globally, with countries adopting different approaches to policy issues, national regulatory divergence on the matter continues, placing limits on the benefits that countries can obtain from digital trade. Given these disparities, ahead of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Phase II Negotiations, African countries have been considering the best way to harmonise regulations on issues related to digital trade. To do this effectively, AfCFTA members need to identify where divergencies exist in their domestic regulatory systems. This will allow AfCFTA members to determine where harmonisation is possible, as well as what is needed to achieve such harmonisation. This report analyses the domestic regulations and policies of four focus countries – South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Senegal – comparing their regulatory approaches to five policy issues: i) regulation of online transactions; ii) cross-border data flows, data localisation, and personal data protection; iii) access to source code and technology transfer; iv) intermediary liability; and v) customs duties on electronic transmissions. The study highlights where divergencies exist in adopted approaches, indicating the need for the four countries – and AfCFTA members in general – to carefully consider the implications of the divergences, and determine where it is possible and beneficial to harmonise approaches. This was intended to encourage AfCFTA member states to take ownership of these issues and reflect on the reforms needed. As seen in Table 1 below, the study shows that the four countries diverge on most of the five policy issues. There are differences in how all four countries regulate online transactions – that is, e-signatures and online consumer protection. Nigeria was the only country out of the four to recognise all types of e-signatures as legally equivalent. Kenya and Senegal only recognise specific e-signatures, which are either issued or validated by a recognised institution, while South Africa adopts a mixed approach, where it recognises all e-signatures as legally valid, but provides higher evidentiary weight to certain types of e-signatures. Only South Africa and Senegal have specific regulations relating to online consumer protection, while Nigeria and Kenya do not have any clear rules. With regards to cross border data flows, data localisation, and personal data protection, the study shows that all four focus countries have regulations that consist of elements borrowed from the European Union (EU) General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). In particular, this was regarding the need for the data subject's consent, and also the adequacy requirement. Interestingly, the study also shows that South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria also adopt data localisation measures, although at different levels of strictness. South Africa’s data localisation laws are mostly imposed on data that is considered critical – which is then required to be processed within South African borders – while Nigeria requires all data to be processed and stored locally, using local servers. Kenya imposes data localisation measures that are mostly linked to its priority for data privacy. Out of the four focus countries, Senegal is the only country that does not impose any data localisation laws. Although the study shows that all four countries share a position on customs duties on electronic transmissions, it is also interesting to note that none of the four countries currently have domestic regulations or policies on the subject. The report concludes by highlighting that, as the AfCFTA Phase II Negotiations aim to arrive at harmonisation and to improve intra-African trade and international trade, AfCFTA members should reflect on their national policies and domestic regulations to determine where harmonisation is needed, and whether AfCFTA is the right platform for achieving this efficiently.
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Walker, Randy M. CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS PLANS for Phase I the INTERNATIONAL PILOT FOR Global Radiological source SORTING, Tracking, AND MONITORING (GradSStraM) Using eMERGING RFID AND WEB 2.0 TECHNOLOGIES TO PROVIDE TOTAL ASSET AND INFORMATION VISUALIZATIONA United states- European Union Lighthouse Priority Project for fostering trade and reducing regulatory burden. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/993776.
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Plant Protection and Quarantine: Helping U.S. Agriculture Thrive--Across the Country and Around the World, 2016 Annual Report. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2017.7207241.aphis.
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For Plant Protection and Quarantine (PPQ) and our partners, 2016 was a year of remarkable successes. Not only did we eradicate 10 fruit fly outbreaks, but we also achieved 4 years with zero detections of pink bollworm, moving us one step closer to eradicating this pest from all commercial cotton-growing areas of the continental United States. And when the U.S. corn industry faced the first-ever detection of bacterial leaf streak (Xanthomonas vasicular pv vasculorum), we devised a practical and scientific approach to manage the disease and protect valuable export markets. Our most significant domestic accomplishment this year, however, was achieving one of our agency’s top 10 goals: eliminating the European grapevine moth (EGVM) from the United States. On the world stage, PPQ helped U.S. agriculture thrive in the global market-place. We worked closely with our international trading partners to develop and promote science-based standards, helping to create a safe, fair, and predictable agricultural trade system that minimizes the spread of invasive plant pests and diseases. We reached critical plant health agreements and resolved plant health barriers to trade, which sustained and expanded U.S. export markets valued at more than $4 billion. And, we helped U.S. producers meet foreign market access requirements and certified the health of more than 650,000 exports, securing economic opportunities for U.S. products abroad. These successes underscore how PPQ is working every day to keep U.S. agriculture healthy and profitable.
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Monetary Policy Report - July 2022. Banco de la República, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3-2022.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias