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1
CHENG, WENLI, et DINGSHENG ZHANG. « DOES TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE GOODS INCREASE OR DECREASE WAGE INEQUALITY ? » Singapore Economic Review 52, no 02 (août 2007) : 201–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590807002658.
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This paper develops two models to study the impact of trade in intermediate goods on wage inequality between skilled and unskilled labor in a developed country and a developing country. The first model assumes symmetric production technologies in the intermediate good. It predicts that trade in the intermediate good will increase wage inequality in the developed country, but decrease wage inequality in the developing country. The second model assumes asymmetric technologies in the intermediate good. It predicts that trade in the intermediate good can lead to an increase in wage inequality in both the developed country and the developing country.
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Eyquem, Aurélien, et Güneş Kamber. « A NOTE ON THE BUSINESS CYCLE IMPLICATIONS OF TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE GOODS ». Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, no 5 (11 mars 2013) : 1172–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100512000892.
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Trade in intermediate goods is an important feature of trade in developed small open economies. We show that a model that assumes trade in intermediate goods brings the dynamics of an otherwise standard small open economy closer to what is observed in the data. With trade in intermediate goods, movements of international relative prices affect the economy through an additional channel, denoted the “cost channel.” A model embedding this channel comes closer to business cycle data in several dimensions compared to models with trade in final goods only. It increases the share of output variance explained by foreign shocks, lowers the exchange rate pass-through, and delivers a positive international correlation of outputs. In addition, the matching of other business cycle moments is at least as good as in a model with trade in final goods only.
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Moon, Soojae. « The “Backus-Smith” puzzle, non-tradable output, and international business cycles ». Studies in Economics and Finance 33, no 4 (3 octobre 2016) : 532–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/sef-01-2015-0033.
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Purpose This paper aims to examine the effects of adding non-tradable sector and trade in intermediate goods sector and their impact on the “Backus-Smith” (BS) puzzle and the features of the non-tradable output. Conventional international real business cycle models show that the real exchange rate and the terms of trade are positively correlated to the relative consumption movement between the home and foreign economies when there is a total factor productivity shock, whereas the correlation in the data is negative. The author develops a two-country, dynamic, stochastic and general equilibrium (DSGE) model with staggered price setting in the non-tradable sector and international trade in intermediate goods sector because of product differentiation in a high-asset market frictions situation. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, DGSE simulation and calibration are performed using Matlab with Dynare. Findings When the world economy has positive country-specific productivity shock, the benchmark model with non-tradable sector and intermediate goods sector successfully solves the BS puzzle and is able to match several features of the data. The dynamic responses to productivity shock show that integrating product differentiation is necessary to generate a more volatile and counter-cyclical non-tradable output. Originality/value The paper investigates the effects of incorporating non-tradable sector and trade in interemediate goods sector to standard two-country DSGE model through simulation and calibration.
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Aguirre, Iñaki. « On the Economics of the “Meeting Competition Defense” Under the Robinson–Patman Act ». B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & ; Policy 16, no 3 (1 juillet 2016) : 1213–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/bejeap-2015-0146.
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Abstract This paper studies the welfare effects of third-degree price discrimination when competitive pressure varies across markets. In particular, we study the economic aspects of the Robinson–Patman Act associated with the “meeting competition defense.” Using equilibrium models, the main result we find is that this defense might be used successfully in cases of primary line injury precisely when it should not be used, namely when price discrimination reduces social welfare. This result obtains both when discrimination appears in the final good market and when it is used in the intermediate goods market. We also find that these results may maintain under secondary line injury.
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Goldar, Bishwanath, Isha Chawla et Smruti Ranjan Behera. « Trade liberalization and productivity of Indian manufacturing firms ». Indian Growth and Development Review 13, no 1 (12 juin 2019) : 73–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/igdr-10-2018-0108.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of India’s trade liberalization during the late 1990s and 2000s on productivity of manufacturing firms and verify whether the productivity-enhancing impact of reductions in input tariffs was greater than that of output tariff cuts, as found in some earlier studies. Design/methodology/approach Firm-level (company-level) data drawn from Prowess database are used for the estimation of total factor productivity (TFP) at the firm level, done by using the Levinsohn–Petrin methodology. Econometric models are estimated to explain firm-level TFP. The explanatory variables used are output and input tariff rates and quantitative restrictions on imports at the industry level and firm characteristics such as firm size, export intensity and import intensity. Firm-level panel data for 2002-2010 or for a longer period 1998-2010 are used for the estimation of econometric models. Model estimation is done by applying the fixed-effects model and IV-2SLS, 3SLS estimators and EC2SLS estimators. Findings Trade liberalization had a significant positive effect on the productivity of Indian manufacturing firms. The lowering of output tariff had a greater beneficial impact on TFP of Indian manufacturing firms than the lowering of tariff on intermediate inputs. Originality/value Good deal of care has been taken in the measurement of output and inputs for the purpose of TFP measurement. Two alternative frameworks, gross output and value added, are used. This helps in making a better estimate of the impact of trade liberalization on TFP.
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Choi, Myoung Shik, et Hun Dae Lee. « The Value-Added Effects of Exchange Rates on Global Trade ». Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 10, no 1 (17 janvier 2021) : 184. http://dx.doi.org/10.36941/ajis-2021-0016.
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This study is an investigation of view about the gross, bilateral, and value-added trades adjusting to exchange rate and income within global value chains. Various difference between aggregate and value-added trade flows is introduced. We adopt the traditional trade models and test them using time-series analysis on value-added exports and imports. We find that currency depreciation has negative effects on gross exports in the US and Korea due to intermediate goods imports, but positive effects on value-added exports in Japan and Korea. On the other hand, currency appreciation has negative effects on gross imports in the US, China, Japan and Korea due to intermediate goods exports, but positive effects on value-added imports in Japan. All income effects are positive as we expect. Also, we find the similar effects of exchange rate on bilateral trade flows. On the whole, depreciation has negative effects on gross exports but positive effects on value-added exports while appreciation has negative effects on gross imports but positive effects on value-added imports. With this study, the main contribution is further evidence on the value-added trade analysis. Practical implications reducing uncertainty could be an important policy objective to achieve higher growth.
Received: 23 October 2020 / Accepted: 16 December 2020 / Published: 17 January 2021
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Coyle, Diane, et David Nguyen. « Cloud Computing, Cross-Border Data Flows and New Challenges for Measurement in Economics ». National Institute Economic Review 249 (août 2019) : R30—R38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795011924900112.
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When economists talk about ‘measurement’ they tend to refer to metrics that can capture changes in quantity, quality and distribution of goods and services. In this paper we argue that the digital transformation of the economy, particularly the rise of cloud computing as a general-purpose technology, can pose serious challenges to traditional concepts and practices of economic measurement. In the first part we show how quality-adjusted prices of cloud services have been falling rapidly over the past decade, which is currently not captured by the deflators used in official statistics. We then discuss how this enabled the spread of data-driven business models, while also lowering entry barriers to advanced production techniques such as artificial intelligence or robotic-process-automation. It is likely that these process innovations are not fully measured at present. A final challenge to measurement arises from the fragmentation of value chains across borders and increasing use of intangible intermediate inputs such as intellectual property and data. While digital technologies make it very easy for these types of inputs to be transferred within or between companies, existing economic statistics often fail to capture them at all.
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Perry, Bryan, Kerk Phillips et David E. Spencer. « Real wages and monetary policy : a DSGE approach ». Journal of Economic Studies 42, no 5 (12 octobre 2015) : 734–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-01-2014-0008.
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Purpose – Studies of the cyclical behavior of real wages have identified monetary shocks and examined the response of real wages and output or employment. A finding that real wages are procyclical in response to a positive monetary policy shock is taken as evidence that prices are stickier than wages. The purpose of this paper is to show that factors other than wage and price stickiness affect the response of real wages to a monetary policy shock. Design/methodology/approach – The authors simulate two prominent dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models under a variety of parameter values and examine the cyclicality of the real wage. Findings – The authors offer robust evidence that the real wage response to monetary policy is affected in important ways by properties of the economy other than stickiness of wages and prices, such as the importance of intermediate goods in the production process and the size of key elasticities. Consequently, the authors cannot appropriately infer the relative stickiness of wages and prices from examining only the response of real wages to a monetary policy shock. Originality/value – The authors show in this study that examining the response of real wages is not enough to sort out the relative stickiness of prices and wages.
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Ivashchenko, S. M. « Long -term growth sources for sectors of Russian economy ». Journal of the New Economic Association 48, no 4 (2020) : 86–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2020-48-4-4.
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Theoretical models suggest stationary structure of sectors. Sometimes this suggestion is hidden (balanced growth). The ratio of variables for 2 sectors is unit root at the most cases (for 14 Russian sectors and 6 variables per sector). The lowest share of stationary ratios is 5/91 for real value added with ADF test (KPSS test for the same variable leads to 38/91 stationary ratios). The cointegration rank differs across sectors in wide ranges (from 1 for trade (G) or government administration (L) till 5 for agriculture (AB)). The dynamic stochastic partial equilibrium (DSPE) model is created. It is model of firms in DSGE-style and description of the rest economy by exogenous rules. The model is estimated for each of 14 sectors. The model includes 5 sources of stochastic trends: TFP; labor supply; investments efficiency; investments prices; prices of intermediate goods. Any 2 sectors significantly differ by key parameters (production function shares, capital depreciation, and demand elasticity). The drift of unit root sources differs across sectors (including sign). Only few pairs of sectors differ insignificantly (3/182 or 8/91 depending on test specification). The variance decomposition of trends (for various variables) is computed. It varies in wide ranges across sectors and variables. Thus, usage of aggregate data in theoretical model leads to loose of large amount of information.
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Somwaru, Agapi, Francis Tuan et Sun Ling Wang. « Assessing China’s Long Term Export and Income Growth in the Global Markets ». International Journal of Economics and Finance 10, no 9 (25 août 2018) : 98. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v10n9p98.
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This paper delves into China’s differential growth in exports with high income and developing countries by focusing on bilateral content of China’s trade and particular exports over the time period 1979-2015. In the last 30 plus years, China has specialized in upstream capital goods and exhibited rapid diversification in consumer goods. Performing causality tests reveals a strong evidence of causality from the export growth of capital goods and consumer non-durable goods to gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. There is also evidence that the causality is bi-directional for consumer durable goods, intermediate goods, and primary non-energy goods with income. Econometric analysis shows a positive and statistical significant relationship between income and export growth of capital goods, consumer non-durable goods, intermediate goods, and primary non-energy goods. Trade openness allows stimulation of growth and efficiency as producers in China are exploiting areas in which they have a comparative advantage.
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Islam, Tamanna, Ashfaque A. Mohib et Shahnaz Zarin Haque. « Econometric Models for Forecasting Remittances of Bangladesh ». Business and Management Studies 4, no 1 (13 décembre 2017) : 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/bms.v4i1.2860.
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At present, the remittance of Bangladesh (RB) is the largest source of foreign exchange earning of the country. The RB plays a critical role in alleviating the foreign-exchange constraint and supporting the balance of payments, enabling imports of capital goods and raw materials for industrial development. Remittance from overseas migrant workers certainly increases the income disparity between classes of the rural society. Therefore forecasting plays an important role to know the future situation of economic condition. This paper employed the prospective data on RB to derive a unique and suitable forecasting model. The data were collected from Bangladesh Bank (BB) during January, 1998 to December, 2003. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models were used to find out the best one. The findings indicated that the ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,2,1)12 and the GARCH (2,1) models were appropriate for our data and the GARCH (2,1) model appeared to be the best one between these.
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Shakkaliyev, Arman A. « Econometric Modeling of the Markets Boundaries ». Journal of Modern Competition 16, no 4 (31 août 2022) : 133–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.37791/2687-0657-2022-16-4-133-143.
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The relevance of the study is due to the special importance of correctly determining the product boundaries of the cross-border markets of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in the process of antimonopoly regulation. An erroneous definition of such parameters leads to an incorrect definition of the product, and, as a result, to a narrowing or expansion of the scope and geography of its circulation, an increase or blurring of the shares of entities operating in the markets, a false level of concentration, as well as a distortion of the criteria for delineating the competence of the EEC and national authorities in terms of abuse of dominance. This process can be much more complicated when it comes to goods that are subject to technical regulations, and due to their specificity, there are a significant number of types of goods that are generally similar in some respects, but differ in others. In this regard, within the framework of the study, an attempt was made to assess the possibilities of using certain methods of econometric modeling when establishing product boundaries for cross-border markets for such goods using the example of non-electric initiation systems. The research hypothesis is based on the following assumptions. First: technical regulations and standards not only act as market entry barriers, but also have a decisive influence on the definition of a market within which goods equivalent to each other circulate. Second: when determining the product boundaries of markets operating in the system of technical regulation, along with traditional and normatively fixed approaches, multiple regression models can be used and a correlation between the cost of a product and its characteristics, as well as empirical analysis data that allows segmenting goods according to specific boundaries, can be used.
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Maune, Alexander. « Trade in Services-Economic Growth Nexus : An Analysis of the Growth Impact of Trade in Services in SADC Countries ». Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 11, no 2(J) (13 mai 2019) : 58–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v11i2(j).2819.
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The article analysed the trade in services led growth in ten selected countries in the Southern African Development Community region using econometric regression models. Panel data obtained from the World Bank and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development databases for the period 1992 to 2015 was analysed. Five variables were used in the econometric analysis. The marginal effects of service and goods exports were positive while those of goods and service imports were negative and highly significant as was expected from literature. Service exports registered an impact that was almost threefold that of service imports and greater than goods exports. Policy-makers are encouraged to, clearly define their trade in service strategy and reduce or remove trade restrictions. The study is of importance to researchers, the private sector and government policymakers.
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Tsvil, Mariya, et O. Abramova. « ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF INDIVIDUAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE ACTIVITY OF CUSTOMS AUTHORITIES ». Science & ; World 2022, no 4 (16 décembre 2022) : 26–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.26526/2307-9401-2022-4-26-30.
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The article represents the theoretical, regulatory consolidated information on the effectiveness indicesof the performance of the customs authorities, as well as an econometric modeling of the separate parameters of such economic indicators as customs payments, namely weight and cost. The developed models according to the given parameters are based on the monthly data of the Customs statistics for commodity group 23 «Residues and wastes of the food industry; prepared animal feed» for 2018-2021. By means of the constructed econometric models, the values of the customs value and weight for this category of goods for January 2022 have been predicted.
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Dorosz, Aleksandra, et Hanna Dudek. « SPOŻYCIE OWOCÓW W POLSCE – ANALIZA NA PODSTAWIE JEDNORÓWNANIOWYCH NIELINIOWYCH MODELI EKONOMETRYCZNYCH ». Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych 21, no 1 (4 janvier 2021) : 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/mibe.2020.21.1.1.
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The article dealt with an assessment of the fit of typical non-linear demand models for fruit. The power function, the exponential function with the inverse and the Törnquist function for the basic goods were used in the econometric analysis. The models were estimated on the basis of income quintile groups’ data published by the Central Statistical Office. Based on the estimated model parameters, income elasticities of demand were calculated. It was found that the models described by the power function and the Törnquist function for basic goods were characterized by a better goodness of fit than the models using the exponential function with the inverse.
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Xiang, Yu, Jing Zheng et Xunhua Tu. « The Impact of Intermediate Goods Imports on Energy Efficiency : Empirical Evidence from Chinese Cities ». International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no 20 (11 octobre 2022) : 13007. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192013007.
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Improving energy efficiency is a critical way to solve energy shortage and environmental problems and achieve the goal of “double carbon”. As China expands imports and integrates into global value chains, can import trade improve energy efficiency? This topic is extremely important for solving current energy problems and promoting sustainable economic development. Based on panel data of prefecture-level cities in China, this paper uses the Super-SBM model to measure the total factor energy efficiency of cities and investigates the impact of intermediate goods imports on energy efficiency with fixed effects models and instrumental variable method (IV). The study finds that: (1) intermediate goods imports contribute to the increase of urban energy efficiency, and the mechanism test indicates that intermediate goods imports affect energy efficiency through the technology spillover effect and intermediate goods type diversification effect. (2) According to the heterogeneity analysis, the effect of intermediate goods imports on energy efficiency is more evident in eastern China and cities with low topographic relief, medium population scale, and high absorption capability. (3) Analysis of the spatial spillover effect with the SDM model shows that importing intermediate goods promotes energy efficiency in local cities and radiates energy efficiency improvement in neighboring cities.
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Afanasiev, Kirill, et Ekaterina Stepanova. « Initiative Improvement in Saint-Petersburg : from Local Community Art towards Tactical Urbanism ». Inter 14, no 3 (30 septembre 2022) : 124–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.19181/inter.2022.14.3.6.
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The article summarizes the preliminary results of the analysis of public initiatives in the field of landscaping in St. Petersburg. In order to systematize the variety of research approaches and assessments of interested persons authors used the methods of source analysis and generalization (grouping) of assessments and analogies in relation to the objects and phenomena under consideration.The practical part of the study consisted in the formation of an array of data and a bank of cases in the field of grassroots initiatives to improve the urban environment and the formation of public spaces. Based on the data obtained, there was created a map of the activity of urban communities, as well as a heat map, illustrating the foci of concentration of the social capital of the city. As the analytical tools authors used models of joint actions and cooperation, research methods of the theory of public goods and behavioral economics, as well as the method of geoinformation analysis.As a unifying term for the phenomena under consideration, the authors propose the term “initiative improving”, meaning a spontaneously emerging and developing form of civic activity at the place of residence using self-organization and self-financing tools. The range of revealed facts of initiative landscaping varies from negatively perceived ‘local community art’ (a form of naive and artisanal improvement of the space around a residential building) to initiatives of residents to restore and form public facilities approved by the majority (restoration of entrances of historical buildings, lost historical elements, green spaces). Intermediate forms in this regard are initiatives within the framework of territorial public self-government, festive events and temporary facilities. The concept that allows us to describe the most constructive format is M. Lydon's “tactical urbanism” — the theory of “small affairs” in the field of urban development.The novelty of the presented approach consists in the systematization of the facts of initiative improvement (including negative ones) and their integration into the general logic of modern urban development against the background of currently prevailing approaches based on the allocation of the decisive role of professionals and experts in this process.
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Arrieta Padilla, Gabriel Lewis. « Trade Creation and Diversion Effects under the Free Trade Agreement between Peru and the United States : A Gravitational Analysis ». Economia 44, no 88 (31 décembre 2021) : 1–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.18800/economia.202102.001.
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This paper is oriented to quantify the trade creation and diversion effects in the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Peru and the United States. For that purpose, using a disaggregated database at the 10-digit level for Peruvian goods with intervals of 3-years between 2002 and 2018, this article adopts a three-dummy variable methodology that allows the identification of intra-bloc and extra-bloc effects. In addition, a theoretically-founded gravity equation is employed with the incorporation of country-time and time-invariant fixed effects in order to solve common econometric specification problems, such as lack of multilateral resistance terms in modelling, heteroscedasticity of trade data, inclusion of zero trade flows, and endogeneity of trade policy. Estimating with the PPML method for the complete sample and among types of goods (group 1: raw materials and intermediate goods, and group 2: consumer and capital goods), the main results show that the Peru-US FTA generates intra-bloc trade creation for the entire sample and two groups of goods separately. In addition, the FTA produces export trade diversion for the complete sample and group 2, while import trade creation for both groups. In overall, the Peru-USA FTA is an “intra-bloc trade creation agreement” that boosted bilateral trade flows. These effects are considered in order to formulate some policy recommendations for improving the results of this Peruvian FTA.
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Majewski, Sebastian, Waldemar Tarczynski et Malgorzata Tarczynska-Luniewska. « Measuring investors’ emotions using econometric models of trading volume of stock exchange indexes ». Investment Management and Financial Innovations 17, no 3 (30 septembre 2020) : 281–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(3).2020.21.
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Traditional finance explains all human activity on the ground of rationality and suggests all decisions are rational because all current information is reflected in the prices of goods. Unfortunately, the development of information technology and a growth of demand for new, attractive possibilities of investment caused the process of searching new, unique signals supporting investment decisions. Such a situation is similar to risk-taking, so it must elicit the emotional reactions of individual traders.The paper aims to verify the question that the market risk may be the determinant of traders’ emotions, and if volatility is a useful tool during the investment process as the measure of traders’ optimism, similarly to Majewski’s work (2019). Likewise, various econometric types of models of estimation of the risk parameter were used in the research: classical linear using OLS, general linear using FGLS, and GARCH(p, q) models using maximum likelihood method. Hypotheses were verified using the data collected from the most popular world stock exchanges: New York, Frankfurt, Tokyo, and London. Data concerned stock exchange indexes such as SP500, DAX, Nikkei, and UK100.
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Basovskiy, Leonid, et Elena Basovskaya. « The Elasticity of Labor Productivity by Factors of Production in Modern Russia ». Scientific Research and Development. Economics 8, no 4 (17 août 2020) : 22–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/2587-9111-2020-22-25.
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The correlation between labor productivity and indicators reflecting the influence of socio-economic and innovative factors in the regions of Russia for 2015-2018 were evaluated. For each year, according to statistics from 82 regions of Russia, econometric models are constructed that allow obtaining elasticity coefficients of labor productivity by capital-labor ratio, foreign investment, average monthly wage, income inequality, producer price index of industrial goods, export share in gross regional product. The prospects of economic policy aimed at increasing labor productivity were estimated.
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Arruda, Elano Ferreira, Antônio Clécio de Brito et Pablo Urano de Carvalho Castelar. « Exchange Rate and Trade Balances in Brazil : A Disaggregated Analysis by Major Economic Categories ». International Journal of Economics and Finance 14, no 6 (30 mai 2022) : 62. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v14n6p62.
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This work investigates the repercussions of real devaluations in the exchange rate on the trade balance for Brazil, when considering major economic categories, i.e., capital goods, durable consumer goods, semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, intermediate goods, and fuels and lubricants. To this end, monthly data are used for the period January 2000 and July 2019, and vector error correction (VEC) models. The results suggest that, in the long run, real devaluations in the exchange rate have positive and elastic impacts on the trade balance in all sectors, except for fuels and lubricants. Only the durable consumer goods and fuels and lubricants sectors do not show the occurrence of the J curve. Domestic income has a negative impact on the trade balance in most models analyzed, while foreign income has a positive impact on all sectors, except for fuels and lubricants.
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Plaskon, Svitlana, Halina Seniv, Ivan Novosad et Vadym Masliy. « APPLICATION OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING IN THE EVALUATION OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF UKRAINE ». Economic Analysis, no 30(3) (2020) : 25–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/econa2020.03.025.
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Introduction. Foreign trade operations significantly affect the development of each country's economy, in particular the value of gross domestic product, which is one of the main indicators of economic development and welfare of population. Therefore, it is necessary to study and model the impact of exports, imports and net exports on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to analyze publications that consider export-import operations of Ukraine, study of statistical information in this area, construction and analysis of econometric models of the dynamics of foreign trade operations of Ukraine and their impact on gross domestic product. Method. The article uses regression-correlation analysis as one of the main research methods; time series theory; methods of mathematical modeling. Results. The dynamics of foreign economic operations and gross domestic product of Ukraine are researched and analyzed. It is revealed that the balance of export-import operations has a significant impact on the gross domestic product of Ukraine. An econometric model of the dependence of the nominal gross domestic product on the value of exports of goods and services (coefficient of determination 0.9795) is calculated, using statistical information for 2005-2019 years. It is substantiated that with the increase in exports of goods and services by UAH 1 billion Ukraine's nominal GDP grows by an average of UAH 2.2642 billion. The value of coefficients of import dependence and coverage of import by export in foreign economic operations of Ukraine are analyzed. It is noted that the coefficient of import dependence significantly exceeds the allowable level in the study period, due to certain imbalances in foreign trade relations. The coefficient of coverage of imports by exports only in 2005 was greater than one, and during 2006-2019 it became less than one. In this regard, it is necessary to increase export operations, obtain a positive balance of payments, make effective economic and political decisions to increase exports of Ukrainian goods and services, reduce import dependence, using and implementing innovative methods of production and management.
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Yang, Xiaojun, Ping Qin et Jintao Xu. « Positional concern, gender, and household expenditures : a case study in Yunnan province ». China Agricultural Economic Review 8, no 4 (7 novembre 2016) : 572–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/caer-07-2015-0076.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to attempt to investigate farmer’s positional concerns in rural China, and how the positional concerns correlate with household expenditures on visible goods. Design/methodology/approach The authors conduct a survey-based experiment to measure farmers’ positional concerns, and employ econometric models to examine the determinants of the degree of positional concern and how the positional concern affects household expenditures on visible goods. Findings The authors find that Chinese farmers have strong positional concerns for income, and high-income households are more concerned with relative position. Furthermore, there is a significant difference between males and females with respect to correlation between degree of positionality and household expenditures on visible goods. For females, there is a positive correlation between degree of positionality and household expenditures on clothes, restaurants, and mobile phones, respectively. For males, there is a positive correlation between degree of positionality and household expenditures on mobile phones. Social implications The government policy thus should pay attention to the positional goods, and the relevant consumption tax by increasing the prices of visible goods could be considered or suggested in the future even in the rural areas. Originality/value This paper provides complementary evidence on Chinese farmers’ positional concerns, and how the degree of positional concern relates to household expenditures on visible goods.
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Czech, Artur, et Jerzy Lewczuk. « Taxonomic and Econometric Analysis of Road Transport Development in Poland – The Voivodship Approach ». Ekonomia i Zarzadzanie 8, no 3 (1 septembre 2016) : 79–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/emj-2016-0026.
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Abstract Transport is considered one of the basic aspects of the movement of people, raw materials as well as goods from the place of origin to the destination. Moreover, in the wider sense, transport includes economic bodies that aim to achieve goals similar to those of businesses that produce a wide range of goods required by customers. Hence, the efficient operations of basic branches of the transportation system determine the entire national economy. Furthermore, transport is considered a basic factor of development, both on the macro- and microeconomic scales. The aim of the paper is to attempt the assessment of the road transport in Poland as an important element of macro logistics. Furthermore, one of the aims of the investigation was the explanation of its influence on the level of economic development in Poland. As the source of information, the research used the data drawn from the Central Statistical Office of Poland. The main methods implemented in this study were both classic and order synthetic measure construction. Further, these measures were used in econometric models as well as for the prediction of their values. The main result of the analysis indicates that the development level of the widely considered infrastructure is strictly correlated with the socio-economic development of particular voivodships. The study on the level of road transport development can lead to a better understanding of the socio-economic development of particular areas of Poland as well as the more efficient use of the support funds.
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Dobronravova, E. P. « Industry effects of monetary policy in Russia : Econometric analysis ». Journal of the New Economic Association 55, no 3 (2022) : 45–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-3.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This paper presents the econometric analysis of the heterogenous effects of monetary policy on industrial output and producer prices in manufacturing sector in Russia. The estimation of the differences in the impulce responses to the interest rate shock is conducted using structural VAR-models, the analysis of key industrial characteristics, explaining differences through monetary transmission channes, is based on principal components and correlations. Our findings reveal the strongest response to monetary policy in such industries as manufacture of rubber and plastic products, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products, manufacture of pulp and paper, manufacture of machinery nd equipment, manufacture of electrical, electronic and optical equipment and manufacture of motor vehicles and equipment. Besides, in these industries the response is usually deffered to 2–3 months after the shock. Our findings also show that the impact of monetary shocks on output is particulary strong in industries producing capital goods and supplies for construction but particularly weak in industries with high concentration and high profits. That means that differences in industrial responses to monetary policy can be described by two key channels of monetary transmission — interest rate channel (due to high demand sensitivity to interest rate changes) and bank lending channel (due to important role of bank loans in fi rms’ financing).
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Abdić, Ademir, Emina Resić, Adem Abdić et Adnan Rovčanin. « Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina : A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models ». South East European Journal of Economics and Business 15, no 2 (1 décembre 2020) : 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2020-0011.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract The paper explores the possibilities of creating an econometric model for making short-term forecasts of the Gross Domestic Product of Bosnia and Herzegovina (GDP of B&H). Its aim is to determine the most representative and most efficient model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H. This is the first paper that simultaneously compares ARIMA models, bridge models and factor models in three different time periods. All variables are available for the period of 2006q1-2016q4. The final choice of the model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H was selected on the basis of a comparative analysis of the predictive efficiency of the analysed models. Based on the obtained results, the most efficient model for forecasting quarterly GDP of B&H is the bridge model, which includes four variables as regressor: Retail sale of other goods, Total loans, Manufacturing and Manufacture of food products.
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Avila-Foucat, Veronique Sophie, Karla J. Rodriguez-Robayo, Kelly W. Jones, Erin C. Pischke, David Torrez, Jacob Salcone, Theresa Selfa et Kathleen E. Halvorsen. « Household’s Allocation of Payment for Ecosystem Services in “La Antigua” Watershed, Veracruz, México ». Journal of Environment & ; Development 30, no 2 (5 avril 2021) : 191–213. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/10704965211003148.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Payment for ecosystem services (PES) is an environmental policy looking to improve ecosystem conservation and well-being. Assets have been used to evaluate socioeconomic outcomes of the program; however, the allocation of PES at a household level and its explaining variables have not been addressed. Thus, the aim of this article is to study the allocation of PES in nondurable and durable goods and the determinants of this household decision. Results from the La Antigua watershed located in Mexico indicate that the PES program is primarily used in durable goods, mainly on health, house infrastructure, agricultural inputs, and reforestation. Econometric models show that this allocation to one or several assets depends on the average age of the household head, on participation in a community organization, and on the average income. In contrast, government transfers are not significant. Based on this, policy recommendations are made related to the program’s socioeconomic outcomes and alignment with other conditional cash transfer.
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Benada, Luděk. « Comparison of the Impact of Econometric Models on Hedging Performance by Crude Oil and Natural Gas ». Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 66, no 2 (2018) : 423–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201866020423.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The paper examines the performance of hedging spot prices in crude oil and natural gas. The subject of the research are spot prices of West Texas Intermediate and Henry Hub. The risk protection is provided by the application of futures contracts of underlying assets. In our analysis three econometric models (OLS, Copula, GARCH) and a naive portfolio are applied to obtain the optimal hedge ratio. Afterwards, the calculated weights for futures are verified for the ability to reduce the spot price risk over twelve months. The success of each model in risk reduction is measured over the test period by a conventional tool and across the models by proper metric. The results of the analysis confirm high level of risk reduction by crude oil across models. On the contrary, the results of hedging in natural gas significantly lag in comparison to crude oil. In addition, the analysis confirms a strong variability over the tested period and models.
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Wesselbaum, Dennis. « Price Bargaining and the Business Cycle ». Applied Economics Quarterly : Volume 66, Issue 1 66, no 1 (1 janvier 2020) : 1–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.3790/aeq.66.1.1.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This paper models a segmented production sector with price bargaining between the intermediate good firm and the final good firm. We show how to incorporate price bargaining in an otherwise standard New Keynesian model and discuss its macroeconomic implications. Estimating the model on U.S. data using Bayesian methods, we find that the intermediate good firm has 50 percent of the bargaining power. We find that the size of the bargaining power determines the quantitative and qualitative macroeconomic effects. Further, we quantify the size of switching costs: they are equal to about two percent of output. Shocks to switching costs are specific to this model and generate sizable macroeconomic fluctuations.
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Basovskiy, Leonid, et Elena Basovskaya. « Production Functions of Labor Productivity in Modern Russia ». Scientific Research and Development. Economics 8, no 3 (17 juin 2020) : 18–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/2587-9111-2020-18-22.
Texte intégralRésumé :
To identify determinants of labor productivity, correlation relationships of productivity of various indicators was evaluated, reflecting the influence of a wide range of socio-economic and innovative factors in the regions of Russia for 2015-2017. It has been established that many indicators characterizing socio-economic and innovative factors do not have a significant relationship with labor productivity and are multicollenarity (they have correlation relationships among themselves). For each year, according to statistics of 82 regions of Russia, econometric models in the form of a well-known standard internal linear function - an analog of the Cobb-Douglas production function are constructed. The obtained models indicate a positive impact on labor productivity, capital-labor ratio, foreign investment, wage levels, income inequality, inflation in industrial goods and export markets. The obtained simulation results showing a significant positive effect on labor productivity exerted by income inequality and the inflation rate on the industrial goods market, which indicates the action of economic mechanisms in the country in developed countries. When performing research, it was found that the positive impact of capital-labor ratio on productivity in 2015-2017 was reduced. This indicates a decrease in the efficiency of use of fixed capital in countries, about the crisis in the country's economy.
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Campos, Octávio Valente, Wagner Moura Lamounier et Rafael Morais de Souza. « The composition of firms' indebtedness and the macroeconomy of capital ». Revista Catarinense da Ciência Contábil 21 (9 septembre 2022) : e3296. http://dx.doi.org/10.16930/2237-7662202232962.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The objective of this research is to analyze the influence that monetary policies exert on the composition of the indebtedness of Brazilian corporations. From this objective, 2 hypotheses derive. The first analyzes the sample aggregate and the second directs the tests to the productive sectors. The study sample is composed of 220 companies: 84 of consumer goods, 89 of capital goods and 47 of public utility. The data collected refer to the years 2009 to 2019. The methodology used for data analysis is through panel data models, using the GMM approach. According to the results, it can be concluded - in the light of the macroeconomics of capital - that the composition of the firms' indebtedness can be determined by the market moments defined by the monetary policies, so that such influence is different depending on the sector to which the companies are located in the production chain. These results complement the literature that studies the impacts of monetary policies and macroeconomic variables on corporate finance, mainly through econometric modeling based on accounting data.
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Mosalev, A. I. « Optimal Spatial Models of Interregional Economic Cooperation in the Field of Innovative Economy ». Economy of Region 18, no 3 (2022) : 638–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-2.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Domestic cooperation of companies in the field of innovative economy seems to be a promising research area in Russia, especially considering recent macroeconomic events caused by sanctions, in particular, restrictions on the import of high-tech goods. Thus, the present study examines the optimal spatial scale of interregional innovation cooperation. The article presents an analysis of approaches to determining the optimal number of k-matrices of relations between innovation active regions. It is hypothesised that the innovative activity of the business sector in one region does not influence the innovative activity of its neighbours and vice versa. Stepwise regression was applied to identify the core explanatory variable. Based on the spatial weights matrices, a spatial econometric model was constructed using the least squares method. Further, the global Moran’s I was employed to test the spatial correlation, in particular, local indicators of spatial association (LISA) using the queen criterion of contiguity were utilised to determine the dependencies of innovative activity between neighbouring regions. The analysis used panel data from all Russian regions for the period from 2010 to 2019, as well as spatial econometric modelling to identify the side effects of the optimal spatial scale. As a result, the study revealed the presence of spatial correlation in the levels of regional innovative activity, the size of markets, as well as institutional support for enterprises in individual regions. Additionally, the research identified factors positively affecting the scale of innovative activity of the regions and adjacent territories, such as regional domestic income, the number of participants in innovation processes and infrastructure facilities. It has been established that the neighbourhood of regions characterised by the presence of many participants in innovation processes (at least 100 units), as well as innovation infrastructure facilities (at least 810 units) will be seen as the optimal scale of regional cooperation.
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Bernard, Jean-Thomas, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian et Clement Yelou. « OIL PRICE FORECASTS FOR THE LONG TERM : EXPERT OUTLOOKS, MODELS, OR BOTH ? » Macroeconomic Dynamics 22, no 3 (6 juin 2017) : 581–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516001279.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Little is known about the accuracy of expert outlooks, so heavily relied upon by industry participants and policy makers, regarding the future path of oil prices. Using the regular publications by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), we examine the accuracy of annual recursive oil price forecasts generated by the National Energy Modeling System model of the Agency for forecast horizons of up to 15 years. Our results reveal that the EIA model outperforms the benchmark random walk model around the two ends of the forecast horizon spectrum. Additionally, at the longer horizons, simple econometric forecasting models often produce similar, if not better accuracy than the EIA model. Time varying such specifications generally also exhibit stability in their forecast performance. Finally, although combining forecasts does not change the overall patterns, some additional accuracy gains are obtained at intermediate horizons, and in some cases, forecast performance stability is also achieved.
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Le Roux, P., et B. Ismail. « Modelling the impact of changes in the interest rates on the economy : An Austrian perspective ». South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences 7, no 1 (23 juillet 2004) : 132–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v7i1.1433.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Even though econometric models and yield curve analysis are useful in assessing the impact of interest rate changes on the economic structure, their power to predict the magnitude and direction of swings in the business cycle is often restricted to the use of short-term interest rates. From an Austrian school perspective on interest rates, empirical evidence suggests that the profitability of heavy industries further downstream outperforms that of light industries in the initial stages of monetary easing, due to a rising demand for investment goods and a rise in capacity utilisation levels. This paper assesses the impact of interest rates changes on the productive structure of the economy by taking into account the effect thereof on sector earnings and ultimately share prices.
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Bereskin, C. Gregory. « Estimating Maintenance-of-Way Costs for U.S. Railroads After Deregulation ». Transportation Research Record : Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1707, no 1 (janvier 2000) : 13–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1707-02.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The movement of freight on railroads, like most transportation services, is subject to a number of restrictions that make costing of specific traffic a complex process. Among these restrictions are conditions of joint production; economies of scale, scope, and density; and a lack of data on specific expenditures as related to individual freight movements. Yet costing of specific movements is a desirable activity for shippers, railroads, and regulatory bodies. Traditionally, movement costing has involved the use of accounting-based allocative costing models such as the Uniform Rail Costing System developed by the Interstate Commerce Commission for use in regulatory hearings. Most econometric studies have aimed at characterizing the underlying economic nature of costs with little or no application to the cost of providing a specific service, and as such they may be of little use in costing specific traffic. Moving beyond the historic econometric costing models’ application of economic analysis, cost behavior is evaluated for a single sector of railroad activity. The process involves four steps. First, a consistent econometric model of total railroad expenditures is developed by applying a translog function within a multidimensional definition of railroad output. Second, the model is decomposed into individual partial-elasticity estimates relative to each of the several related intermediate output measures within the framework of a total differential of the cost function. Next, specific traffic movements are defined relative to the measures of rail output. Finally, the total differential is applied using several simplifying assumptions to yield estimates of incremental (marginal) costs for the specific traffic definition.
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Nikolaychuk, Sergiy, et Yurii Sholomytskyi. « Using Macroeconomic Models for Monetary Policy in Ukraine ». Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, no 233 (29 septembre 2015) : 54–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.26531/vnbu2015.233.054.
Texte intégralRésumé :
An important precondition for successful implementation of inflation targeting is the ability of the central bank to forecast inflation given the fact that the inflation forecast has become an intermediate target. Certainly, this means there should be clear understanding of the monetary policy transmission mechanism functioning within the bank, because it is precisely through transmission channels that a central bank has to ensure convergence of its inflation forecast to the target. And it is almost impossible to pursue inflation targeting without a set of macroeconomic models that describes the monetary policy transmission mechanism and helps to analyse the current state of the economy as well as forecast (simulate) short- and medium-term macroeconomic scenarios. This article provides a review of the current state of macroeconomic modelling at central banks and describes the history of development and actual stance of the National Bank of Ukraine’s system of macroeconomic models. The existing system provides quite reliable support for the current monetary policy decision-making process, but it has to be improved by implementing a more sophisticated model (such as a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model) and enhancing the set of econometric models for shortterm forecast purposes in the future.
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Romanyuk, Kirill. « Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the US Credit Default Swap Market ». Complexity 2021 (30 novembre 2021) : 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/1656448.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The COVID-19 pandemic affected the US economy at different levels. Since credit default swaps can be viewed as a default probability indicator, the article shows the credit default swap market perspective on how the US economy was hit by the pandemic. Forecasting models are built to estimate the predictability of the CDS market sectors during the pandemic, i.e., manufacturing, energy, banks, consumer goods, and services and financial sector excluding banks. Econometric tests are applied to check the uniqueness of credit default swap market sectors after the declaration of the pandemic. The results indicate that the financial sector excluding banks performed uniquely during the pandemic; i.e., the predictability of this sector dropped significantly, and the Chow breakpoint test and Wald coefficient test can identify the shift in the data after declaration of the pandemic.
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Barrientos Seborga, Carmen Inés. « La EDUCACIÓN. BIEN PÚBLICO IMPURO QUE PROMUEVE EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO INCLUSIVO ». Investigación & ; Negocios 13, no 21 (1 mai 2020) : 122. http://dx.doi.org/10.38147/invneg.v13i21.88.
Texte intégralRésumé :
El trabajo se ubica en el área de la política social, particularmente en el impacto del bien público impuro “Educación” en el crecimiento económico. Su propósito consiste en revelar la importancia de la dotación de los bienes públicos como componente de la política social en el crecimiento económico. Se realizó bajo el enfoque cuantitativo. El principal resultado evidencia que los recursos destinados por los gobiernos al bien público impuro “Educación” generaron una oportunidad en el crecimiento económico inclusivo en la región andina en el periodo 2000-2015.Palabras clave: Crecimiento económico, política social, bienes públicos, modelos econométricos, panel de datos.
AbstractThe work is located in the area of social policy, particularly in the impact of the impure public good “Education” on economic growth. Its purpose is to reveal the importance of the endowment of public goods as a component of social policy in economic growth. It was performed under the quantitative approach. The main result shows that the resources allocated by governments to the impure public good “Education” generated an opportunity for inclusive economic growth in the Andean region in the period 2000-2015.Key words: Economic growth, social policy, public goods, econometric models, data panel.
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Işığıçok, Erkan, Ramazan Öz et Savaş Tarkun. « Forecasting and Technical Comparison of Inflation in Turkey With Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Models and the Artificial Neural Network ». International Journal of Energy Optimization and Engineering 9, no 4 (octobre 2020) : 84–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijeoe.2020100106.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Inflation refers to an ongoing and overall comprehensive increase in the overall level of goods and services price in the economy. Today, inflation, which is attempted to be kept under control by central banks or, in the same way, whose price stability is attempted, consists of continuous price changes that occur in all the goods and services used by the consumers. Undoubtedly, in terms of economy, in addition to the realized inflation, inflation expectations are also gaining importance. This situation requires forecasting the future rates of inflation. Therefore, reliable forecasting of the future rates of inflation in a country will determine the policies to be applied by the decision-makers in the economy. The aim of this study is to predict inflation in the next period based on the consumer price index (CPI) data with two alternative techniques and to examine the predictive performance of these two techniques comparatively. Thus, the first of the two main objectives of the study are to forecast the future rates of inflation with two alternative techniques, while the second is to compare the two techniques with respect to statistical and econometric criteria and determine which technique performs better in comparison. In this context, the 9-month inflation in April-December 2019 was forecast by Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), using the CPI data which consist of 207 data from January 2002 to March 2019 and the predictive performance of both techniques was examined comparatively. It was observed that the results obtained from both techniques were close to each other.
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Rakovitis, Nikolaos, Nan Zhang, Jie Li et Liping Zhang. « A new approach for scheduling of multipurpose batch processes with unlimited intermediate storage policy ». Frontiers of Chemical Science and Engineering 13, no 4 (7 novembre 2019) : 784–802. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11705-019-1858-4.
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Abstract The increasing demand of goods, the high competitiveness in the global marketplace as well as the need to minimize the ecological footprint lead multipurpose batch process industries to seek ways to maximize their productivity with a simultaneous reduction of raw materials and utility consumption and efficient use of processing units. Optimal scheduling of their processes can lead facilities towards this direction. Although a great number of mathematical models have been developed for such scheduling, they may still lead to large model sizes and computational time. In this work, we develop two novel mathematical models using the unit-specific event-based modelling approach in which consumption and production tasks related to the same states are allowed to take place at the same event points. The computational results demonstrate that both proposed mathematical models reduce the number of event points required. The proposed unit-specific event-based model is the most efficient since it both requires a smaller number of event points and significantly less computational time in most cases especially for those examples which are computationally expensive from existing models.
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Zaimen, Brahim, et Saed Tabri. « The effectiveness of exchange rate regimes in controlling inflation : an econometric study using dynamic threshold panel models (Arabic) ». les cahiers du cread 38, no 4 (27 février 2023) : 215–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/cread.v38i4.9.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This paper aims primarily at the economic measurement of the effect of exchange rate regimes on domestic inflation, in addition to other explanatory variables such as money supply and the inflation lags, imported inflation, wherein this latter is supposed to have a non-linear effect that varies according to the trade openness, the growth rate of the gross domestic product, and the oil price. We selected for the analysis the period from 1999 to 2019; By applying the Dynamic Panel Threshold models to a sample of 19 countries in the Middle East and North African region in addition to Turkey, Pakistan and Azerbaijan. The obtained results revealed that the exchange rate regimes have an important role in determining the levels of inflation, and the nature of relationship in the study sample doesn’t differ from what is in the developing countries, but it differs from the emerging and developed countries according to previous studies, where the fixed regimes achieved the best performance in term of inflation, followed by the intermediate and then the floating. Moreover, the imported inflation has a positive effect on the domestic, the trade openness and GDP incite the increase of this effect, the oil price is also important in noting the non-linearity of this relationship.
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Mehrara, Mohsen, et Sadeq Rezaei. « The Determinants of Economic Growth in Iran Based on Bayesian Model Averaging ». International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 49 (mars 2015) : 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.18052/www.scipress.com/ilshs.49.1.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This paper identifies the key determinants of economic growth in Iran, using annual time series data from 1974 to 2010. There is a very large literature on determinants of economic growth and several studies have included a large number of explanatory variables. Empirical models of economic growth are therefore plagued by problems of model uncertainty concerning the choice of explanatory variables and model specification. We utilize Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to resolve these model uncertainties. The results of this study indicate that the ratio of oil revenue to GDP is the most important variable affecting economic growth in the Iranian economy. Also the second and third effective variables on growth are respectively the ratio of imported capital and intermediate goods to GDP and labor force which lead to an increase in growth. Endogenous growth factors which are the factors contributing to the formation of human capital, not possess a large role in growth process. Therefore, the nature of Iran's economy has not endogenous and dynamic features and predominantly, economic growth has been made by injecting of exogenous sources (oil revenue, imported capital and intermediate goods, and labor force).
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Supic, Novica. « On the multiplier concept in regional analysis ». Panoeconomicus 53, no 1 (2006) : 89–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/pan0601089s.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Major aim of the paper is to explain how Keynesian multiplier model can be used to estimate the effect of expenditure changes on regional economy especially regional income and employment. Among many factors, marginal propensity to consume locally produced goods plays a crucial role in determining regional multiplier effects. A critical feature of the regional multiplier is an extent to which expenditure injections leak out of a region and special attention has therefore been paid to identifying the nature of this leakage. Regional multiplier analysis has undoubtedly proved to be of a substantial value not only for defining and operating regional policy but also in providing an explanation of how regional economies actually function. It nevertheless has its weaknesses, the primary one being that it does not provide detailed information of economic effects of the expenditure injections. As a response to this criticism, regional econometric models which provide far greater details have been developed.
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Fierro, Alvaro, et Ibon Aranburu. « Airbnb Branding : Heritage as a Branding Element in the Sharing Economy ». Sustainability 11, no 1 (23 décembre 2018) : 74. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11010074.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The cultural heritage of cities has been proven to be a generator of economic activity and a singular place branding/marketing tool for territories. In addition, in recent times, there has been a boom in the collaborative economy in urban destinations, epitomized by accommodation companies, such as Airbnb. The main objective of this article was to analyze how cultural heritage adds value to the collaborative economy. To this end, a method was proposed that analyzed Airbnb host descriptions, detecting the cultural and heritage goods mentioned, therein, which are used as marketing elements. From these cultural assets, various econometric models were generated that aimed to assess the number of guest reviews, which were used as a proxy for the number of guests. To evaluate this method, a case study was developed in the city of Bilbao. In view of the results, it can be concluded that cultural heritage and spatial location positively influence the activity of the collaborative economy, increasing the number of guests and their economic value.
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Rieländer, Jan, et Bakary Traoré. « Explaining Diversification in Exports Across Higher Manufacturing Content — What is the Role of Commodities ? » Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy 07, no 02 (4 mai 2016) : 1650007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793993316500071.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This paper adds new empirical evidence to the recent literature about the ways countries develop strong productive capacities by analyzing the patterns of export diversification across different levels of manufacturing content. In addition to the measures commonly used to study diversification, such as the number of active export lines and measures of “discoveries in exports”, we propose two new filters based on the concept of revealed comparative advantage (RCA). We use trade data at the 4-digit level for 176 countries from 1992 until 2011, and we classify all the products into three manufacturing categories (unprocessed, semi processed and finished goods). Data confirms that growing countries continue to add new commodities to their exports basket until they reach around US$ 25,000 of GDP per capita. More interestingly, we found that for many countries expanding the spectrum of commodities exported with comparative advantage (RCA) actually contribute to boosting new productive capacities in manufacturing sectors. This finding is robust to different econometric models and different country groups.
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Iyer, Sriya. « The New Economics of Religion ». Journal of Economic Literature 54, no 2 (1 juin 2016) : 395–441. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.54.2.395.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The economics of religion is a relatively new field of research in economics. This survey serves two purposes—it is backward-looking in that it traces the historical and sociological origins of this field, and it is forward-looking in that it examines the insights and research themes that are offered by economists to investigate religion globally in the modern world. Several factors have influenced the economics of religion: (1) new developments in theoretical models including spatial models of religious markets and evolutionary models of religious traits; (2) empirical work that addresses innovatively econometric identification in examining causal influences on religious behavior; (3) new research in the economic history of religion that considers religion as an independent, rather than a dependent, variable; and (4) more studies of religion outside the Western world. Based on these developments, this paper discusses four themes— first, secularization, pluralism, regulation, and economic growth; second, religious markets, club goods, differentiated products, and networks; third, identification including secular competition and charitable giving; and fourth, conflict and cooperation in developing societies. In reviewing this paradoxically ancient yet burgeoning field, this paper puts forward unanswered questions for scholars of the economics of religion to reflect upon in years to come. (JEL D64, D72, L31, O43, Z12, Z13)
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Mgadmi, Nidhal, Azza Béjaoui, Wajdi Moussa et Tarek Sadraoui. « The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Cryptocurrency Market ». Scientific Annals of Economics and Business 69, no 3 (12 septembre 2022) : 343–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.47743/saeb-2022-0014.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The purpose of our paper is to analyze the main factors which influence fiscal balance’s evolution and thereby identify solutions for configuring a sustainable fiscal policy. We have selected as independent variables some of the main macroeconomic measures, respectively public debt, unemployment rate, economy openness degree, population, consumer goods’ price index, current account balance, direct foreign investments and economic growth rate. Our research method uses two econometric models applied on a sample of 22 countries, respectively 14 developed and 8 emergent. The first model is a multiple regression and studies the connection between the fiscal balance and selected independent variables, whereas the second one uses first order differences and introduces economic freedom as a dummy variable to catch the dynamic influences of selected measures upon fiscal result. The time interval considered was 1999-2013. The results generated using the two models revealed that public debt, current account balance and economic growth significantly influence the fiscal balance. As a consequence, the governments need to plan and implement a fiscal policy which resonates with economy priorities and the phase of the economic cycle, as well as ensure a proper management of the public debt, stimulate sustainable economic growth and employment.
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Dinca, Gheorghita, Marius Sorin Dinca et Catalina Popione. « Analyzing Fiscal Balance Evolution for Developed and Emerging Countries ». Scientific Annals of Economics and Business 63, no 3 (2016) : 299–310. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/saeb-2016-0123.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The purpose of our paper is to analyze the main factors which influence fiscal balance’s evolution and thereby identify solutions for configuring a sustainable fiscal policy. We have selected as independent variables some of the main macroeconomic measures, respectively public debt, unemployment rate, economy openness degree, population, consumer goods’ price index, current account balance, direct foreign investments and economic growth rate. Our research method uses two econometric models applied on a sample of 22 countries, respectively 14 developed and 8 emergent. The first model is a multiple regression and studies the connection between the fiscal balance and selected independent variables, whereas the second one uses first order differences and introduces economic freedom as a dummy variable to catch the dynamic influences of selected measures upon fiscal result. The time interval considered was 1999-2013. The results generated using the two models revealed that public debt, current account balance and economic growth significantly influence the fiscal balance. As a consequence, the governments need to plan and implement a fiscal policy which resonates with economy priorities and the phase of the economic cycle, as well as ensure a proper management of the public debt, stimulate sustainable economic growth and employment.
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Dobre-Baron, Oana, Alina Nițescu, Dorina Niță et Cătălin Mitran. « Romania’s Perspectives on the Transition to the Circular Economy in an EU Context ». Sustainability 14, no 9 (28 avril 2022) : 5324. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14095324.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The main objective of the paper is to highlight Romania’s perspectives on the transition process towards the circular economy, in respect with the tendencies registered at the level of the European Union. To this end, our methodology involved the selection of four indicators, each one being viewed as representative for one area of interest specified in the circular economy monitoring framework established by the European Commission, namely: Generation of waste excluding major mineral wastes per domestic material consumption; Recycling rate of municipal waste; Circular material use rate; Gross investment in tangible goods—percentage of gross domestic product. On the basis of data series provided by the Eurostat database, our study employed a quantitative approach, by using the econometric analysis of time series. For each selected indicator, time series-specific approximation and prediction models were constructed; against this background, we were able to reveal accurate forecasts of the analysed variables, with respect to different time horizons. Detailed analysis of the data series resulting from the research proved that on the long run, there are favourable premises for improving Romania’s performance in adopting the circular economic model, on the basis of low values for the indicator “Generation of waste excluding major mineral wastes per domestic material consumption”, of an ascending trend for the indicator ”Circular material use rate” and of maintaining the values of the “Gross investment in tangible goods—percentage of gross domestic product” indicator above the EU-27 average.
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Díaz Carreño, Miguel Ángel, Pablo Mejía Reyes et Liliana Rendón Rojas. « EFECTOS DE LA PANDEMIA COVID-19 EN LA PRODUCCIÓN ESTATAL DE MÉXICO ». Investigación Económica 81, no 322 (29 septembre 2022) : 110. http://dx.doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2022.322.82267.
Texte intégralRésumé :
<p>Este artículo presenta un análisis de la caída de la producción de los estados de México en el segundo trimestre de 2020 como consecuencia de la pandemia de COVID-19. Estimamos modelos econométricos de corte transversal (ante la ausencia de efectos espaciales) y encontramos que las variables asociadas al contexto internacional, como las remesas, el grado de integración internacional y el sector básico, no tienen efectos estadísticamente significativos en la profunda contracción de la producción estatal, en tanto que la producción manufacturera, en particular de la bienes durables, las actividades turísticas y de esparcimiento resultaron significativas en su explicación.</p><p> </p><p align="center">EFFECTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON MEXICO’S STATES PRODUCTION</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>This paper develops an analysis of the deep production contraction of Mexico’s 32 states in the second quarter of 2020 as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Cross-section econometric models are estimated (in the absence of spatial effects); the main results suggest that variables associated to the international context, such as remittances, degree of international integration and basic tradeable goods production do not have statistically significant effects on the drop of production, while manufacturing production, particularly that of durable goods, and touristic and leisure activities are significant in explaining it.</p>