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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Intermediate goods – Econometric models"
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CHENG, WENLI, et DINGSHENG ZHANG. « DOES TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE GOODS INCREASE OR DECREASE WAGE INEQUALITY ? » Singapore Economic Review 52, no 02 (août 2007) : 201–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590807002658.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This paper develops two models to study the impact of trade in intermediate goods on wage inequality between skilled and unskilled labor in a developed country and a developing country. The first model assumes symmetric production technologies in the intermediate good. It predicts that trade in the intermediate good will increase wage inequality in the developed country, but decrease wage inequality in the developing country. The second model assumes asymmetric technologies in the intermediate good. It predicts that trade in the intermediate good can lead to an increase in wage inequality in both the developed country and the developing country.
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Eyquem, Aurélien, et Güneş Kamber. « A NOTE ON THE BUSINESS CYCLE IMPLICATIONS OF TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE GOODS ». Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, no 5 (11 mars 2013) : 1172–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100512000892.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Trade in intermediate goods is an important feature of trade in developed small open economies. We show that a model that assumes trade in intermediate goods brings the dynamics of an otherwise standard small open economy closer to what is observed in the data. With trade in intermediate goods, movements of international relative prices affect the economy through an additional channel, denoted the “cost channel.” A model embedding this channel comes closer to business cycle data in several dimensions compared to models with trade in final goods only. It increases the share of output variance explained by foreign shocks, lowers the exchange rate pass-through, and delivers a positive international correlation of outputs. In addition, the matching of other business cycle moments is at least as good as in a model with trade in final goods only.
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Moon, Soojae. « The “Backus-Smith” puzzle, non-tradable output, and international business cycles ». Studies in Economics and Finance 33, no 4 (3 octobre 2016) : 532–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/sef-01-2015-0033.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Purpose This paper aims to examine the effects of adding non-tradable sector and trade in intermediate goods sector and their impact on the “Backus-Smith” (BS) puzzle and the features of the non-tradable output. Conventional international real business cycle models show that the real exchange rate and the terms of trade are positively correlated to the relative consumption movement between the home and foreign economies when there is a total factor productivity shock, whereas the correlation in the data is negative. The author develops a two-country, dynamic, stochastic and general equilibrium (DSGE) model with staggered price setting in the non-tradable sector and international trade in intermediate goods sector because of product differentiation in a high-asset market frictions situation. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, DGSE simulation and calibration are performed using Matlab with Dynare. Findings When the world economy has positive country-specific productivity shock, the benchmark model with non-tradable sector and intermediate goods sector successfully solves the BS puzzle and is able to match several features of the data. The dynamic responses to productivity shock show that integrating product differentiation is necessary to generate a more volatile and counter-cyclical non-tradable output. Originality/value The paper investigates the effects of incorporating non-tradable sector and trade in interemediate goods sector to standard two-country DSGE model through simulation and calibration.
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Aguirre, Iñaki. « On the Economics of the “Meeting Competition Defense” Under the Robinson–Patman Act ». B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & ; Policy 16, no 3 (1 juillet 2016) : 1213–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/bejeap-2015-0146.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract This paper studies the welfare effects of third-degree price discrimination when competitive pressure varies across markets. In particular, we study the economic aspects of the Robinson–Patman Act associated with the “meeting competition defense.” Using equilibrium models, the main result we find is that this defense might be used successfully in cases of primary line injury precisely when it should not be used, namely when price discrimination reduces social welfare. This result obtains both when discrimination appears in the final good market and when it is used in the intermediate goods market. We also find that these results may maintain under secondary line injury.
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Goldar, Bishwanath, Isha Chawla et Smruti Ranjan Behera. « Trade liberalization and productivity of Indian manufacturing firms ». Indian Growth and Development Review 13, no 1 (12 juin 2019) : 73–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/igdr-10-2018-0108.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of India’s trade liberalization during the late 1990s and 2000s on productivity of manufacturing firms and verify whether the productivity-enhancing impact of reductions in input tariffs was greater than that of output tariff cuts, as found in some earlier studies. Design/methodology/approach Firm-level (company-level) data drawn from Prowess database are used for the estimation of total factor productivity (TFP) at the firm level, done by using the Levinsohn–Petrin methodology. Econometric models are estimated to explain firm-level TFP. The explanatory variables used are output and input tariff rates and quantitative restrictions on imports at the industry level and firm characteristics such as firm size, export intensity and import intensity. Firm-level panel data for 2002-2010 or for a longer period 1998-2010 are used for the estimation of econometric models. Model estimation is done by applying the fixed-effects model and IV-2SLS, 3SLS estimators and EC2SLS estimators. Findings Trade liberalization had a significant positive effect on the productivity of Indian manufacturing firms. The lowering of output tariff had a greater beneficial impact on TFP of Indian manufacturing firms than the lowering of tariff on intermediate inputs. Originality/value Good deal of care has been taken in the measurement of output and inputs for the purpose of TFP measurement. Two alternative frameworks, gross output and value added, are used. This helps in making a better estimate of the impact of trade liberalization on TFP.
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Choi, Myoung Shik, et Hun Dae Lee. « The Value-Added Effects of Exchange Rates on Global Trade ». Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 10, no 1 (17 janvier 2021) : 184. http://dx.doi.org/10.36941/ajis-2021-0016.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This study is an investigation of view about the gross, bilateral, and value-added trades adjusting to exchange rate and income within global value chains. Various difference between aggregate and value-added trade flows is introduced. We adopt the traditional trade models and test them using time-series analysis on value-added exports and imports. We find that currency depreciation has negative effects on gross exports in the US and Korea due to intermediate goods imports, but positive effects on value-added exports in Japan and Korea. On the other hand, currency appreciation has negative effects on gross imports in the US, China, Japan and Korea due to intermediate goods exports, but positive effects on value-added imports in Japan. All income effects are positive as we expect. Also, we find the similar effects of exchange rate on bilateral trade flows. On the whole, depreciation has negative effects on gross exports but positive effects on value-added exports while appreciation has negative effects on gross imports but positive effects on value-added imports. With this study, the main contribution is further evidence on the value-added trade analysis. Practical implications reducing uncertainty could be an important policy objective to achieve higher growth.
Received: 23 October 2020 / Accepted: 16 December 2020 / Published: 17 January 2021
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Coyle, Diane, et David Nguyen. « Cloud Computing, Cross-Border Data Flows and New Challenges for Measurement in Economics ». National Institute Economic Review 249 (août 2019) : R30—R38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795011924900112.
Texte intégralRésumé :
When economists talk about ‘measurement’ they tend to refer to metrics that can capture changes in quantity, quality and distribution of goods and services. In this paper we argue that the digital transformation of the economy, particularly the rise of cloud computing as a general-purpose technology, can pose serious challenges to traditional concepts and practices of economic measurement. In the first part we show how quality-adjusted prices of cloud services have been falling rapidly over the past decade, which is currently not captured by the deflators used in official statistics. We then discuss how this enabled the spread of data-driven business models, while also lowering entry barriers to advanced production techniques such as artificial intelligence or robotic-process-automation. It is likely that these process innovations are not fully measured at present. A final challenge to measurement arises from the fragmentation of value chains across borders and increasing use of intangible intermediate inputs such as intellectual property and data. While digital technologies make it very easy for these types of inputs to be transferred within or between companies, existing economic statistics often fail to capture them at all.
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Perry, Bryan, Kerk Phillips et David E. Spencer. « Real wages and monetary policy : a DSGE approach ». Journal of Economic Studies 42, no 5 (12 octobre 2015) : 734–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-01-2014-0008.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Purpose – Studies of the cyclical behavior of real wages have identified monetary shocks and examined the response of real wages and output or employment. A finding that real wages are procyclical in response to a positive monetary policy shock is taken as evidence that prices are stickier than wages. The purpose of this paper is to show that factors other than wage and price stickiness affect the response of real wages to a monetary policy shock. Design/methodology/approach – The authors simulate two prominent dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models under a variety of parameter values and examine the cyclicality of the real wage. Findings – The authors offer robust evidence that the real wage response to monetary policy is affected in important ways by properties of the economy other than stickiness of wages and prices, such as the importance of intermediate goods in the production process and the size of key elasticities. Consequently, the authors cannot appropriately infer the relative stickiness of wages and prices from examining only the response of real wages to a monetary policy shock. Originality/value – The authors show in this study that examining the response of real wages is not enough to sort out the relative stickiness of prices and wages.
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Ivashchenko, S. M. « Long -term growth sources for sectors of Russian economy ». Journal of the New Economic Association 48, no 4 (2020) : 86–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2020-48-4-4.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Theoretical models suggest stationary structure of sectors. Sometimes this suggestion is hidden (balanced growth). The ratio of variables for 2 sectors is unit root at the most cases (for 14 Russian sectors and 6 variables per sector). The lowest share of stationary ratios is 5/91 for real value added with ADF test (KPSS test for the same variable leads to 38/91 stationary ratios). The cointegration rank differs across sectors in wide ranges (from 1 for trade (G) or government administration (L) till 5 for agriculture (AB)). The dynamic stochastic partial equilibrium (DSPE) model is created. It is model of firms in DSGE-style and description of the rest economy by exogenous rules. The model is estimated for each of 14 sectors. The model includes 5 sources of stochastic trends: TFP; labor supply; investments efficiency; investments prices; prices of intermediate goods. Any 2 sectors significantly differ by key parameters (production function shares, capital depreciation, and demand elasticity). The drift of unit root sources differs across sectors (including sign). Only few pairs of sectors differ insignificantly (3/182 or 8/91 depending on test specification). The variance decomposition of trends (for various variables) is computed. It varies in wide ranges across sectors and variables. Thus, usage of aggregate data in theoretical model leads to loose of large amount of information.
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Somwaru, Agapi, Francis Tuan et Sun Ling Wang. « Assessing China’s Long Term Export and Income Growth in the Global Markets ». International Journal of Economics and Finance 10, no 9 (25 août 2018) : 98. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v10n9p98.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This paper delves into China’s differential growth in exports with high income and developing countries by focusing on bilateral content of China’s trade and particular exports over the time period 1979-2015. In the last 30 plus years, China has specialized in upstream capital goods and exhibited rapid diversification in consumer goods. Performing causality tests reveals a strong evidence of causality from the export growth of capital goods and consumer non-durable goods to gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. There is also evidence that the causality is bi-directional for consumer durable goods, intermediate goods, and primary non-energy goods with income. Econometric analysis shows a positive and statistical significant relationship between income and export growth of capital goods, consumer non-durable goods, intermediate goods, and primary non-energy goods. Trade openness allows stimulation of growth and efficiency as producers in China are exploiting areas in which they have a comparative advantage.
Thèses sur le sujet "Intermediate goods – Econometric models"
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Shu, Hui. « Disequilibrium Transition of the Consumer Goods Market in China, 1954-1991 ». PDXScholar, 1995. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/1161.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This is an in-depth study of the structural change and transition of the Chinese consumer goods market from 1954 to 1991 using disequilibrium econometric methodology. The model for the Chinese consumer goods market is based on the Portes-Winter disequilibrium model for centrally planned economies (1980). The demand function is derived from the Houthakker-Taylor savings function. The supply function is composed of approximations to the government's long-term and short-term plans. The transaction quantity in the market is defined as the smaller of effective demand and supply. Using the traditional global fitting method, three models are evaluated: one model that assumes no structural change, and two models that assume structural change. The estimations show that the structures of the demand and supply functions of the Chinese consumer goods market have changed since the economic reform in 1980. An innovative non-parametric method of locally weighted optimization is applied to further test the variations in model parameters during the period between 1954 and 1991 without assuming explicit functional forms of demand and supply. The estimation results show that the Chinese consumer goods market fits the Portes-Winter model well in the earlier years. The results confirm that the structures of demand and supply functions have changed since the economic reform. In the late 1980's, the Chinese consumer goods market is shown to have shifted away from a pure centrally planned system. Other main conclusions of this study include, first, that chronic shortage does not exist in the Chinese consumer goods market from 1954 to 1991. Second, a rigid price level has not caused the market to be persistently in disequilibrium. Third, the classical disequilibrium model of consumer goods market in centrally planned economies does not fit the Chinese consumer goods market in the later years.
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Pundit, Madhavi. « Essays on Business Cycle Models ». Thesis, Boston College, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/2170.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Thesis advisor: Susanto BasuThesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi
Empirical studies highlight that countries that trade intermediate goods exhibit more synchronized business cycles. This positive correlation raises the question of causality. Traditional theoretical mechanisms propose the direction where higher bilateral trade in intermediate goods causes increased business cycle correlations. However, the data shows that trade is positively correlated with comovements in GDP as well as total factor productivity (TFP) and the current work in the literature explains only the first relation. I build a small open economy model that makes two contributions -- first, it predicts both positive correlations as seen in the data. Second, it explains potential causality in the reverse direction, i.e. countries might choose trade partners based on the properties of their business cycles. Specifically, the model predicts that when the elasticity of substitution between domestic capital and intermediate imports is low, i.e. the country is constrained by domestic technology, there is greater benefit from trading with a positively correlated source and self-insuring through capital accumulation. I provide empirical evidence of this condition in the data by estimating the elasticity of substitution between capital and intermediates by industry using a panel of countries. We use annual time series data and filtering methods to document the key statistics of the India business cycle. Output, consumption and investment are more volatile than in developed economies. Like in developed countries, consumption is less volatile and investment is more volatile than output in the Indian data. Unlike in the former, investment is not highly correlated with output. We test whether a standard real business cycle model with technology and fiscal shocks, with parameters calibrated for the Indian economy can replicate the features of the business cycle
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2011
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
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Chung, Wanyu. « Three essays in international economics : invoicing currency, exchange rate pass-through and gravity models with trade in intermediate goods ». Thesis, University of Warwick, 2014. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/66297/.
Texte intégralRésumé :
A large proportion of international trade is in intermediate goods. The implications of this empirical regularity, however, have not been exhaustively explored in several aspects. The main objective of the thesis is to fill in the gap by introducing trade in intermediate goods into several strands of literature in international economics. This thesis is a collection of three essays studying the implications of trade in intermediate goods for the degree of exchange rate pass-through (Chapter 2), firms invoicing currency choice (Chapter 3) and the performance of the gravity models (Chapter 4). In Chapter 2 I present a theoretical framework and show that back-and-forth trade between two countries is associated with low degrees of aggregated exchange rate pass-through. In Chapter 3 I focus instead on firm heterogeneity in the dependence on imported inputs. I show theoretically that exporters more dependent on foreign currency-denominated inputs are more likely to price in the foreign currency. I then test the theoretical prediction using an innovative and unique dataset that covers all UK trade transactions with non-EU partners from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). Overall the results strongly support the theoretical prediction. Chapter 4 is a theoretical piece of work showing how the underlying trade structure alters the predictions of the gravity models. I relate gravity equations to labour shares of income. Given that these parameters are industry-specific, the results suggest that it is crucial to take them into account when the main research interest lies in sectoral differences in bilateral trade.
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BONGARDT, Annette. « Coordination between customers and suppliers in intermediate goods markets and associated patterns of R and D collaboration : market power and efficency ». Doctoral thesis, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/4872.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Defence date: 17 December 1990Examining board: Prof. Alexis Jacquemin, Université Catholique de Louvain and Commission of the European Communities, Brussels ; Prof. Daniel Jones, Cardiff Business School ; Prof. Neil Kay, University of Strathclyde ; Prof. Stephen Martin, thesis supervisor, European University Institute, Flroence ; Prof. Joachim Schwalbach, Freie Univeristät Berlin
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digitised archive of EUI PhD theses completed between 2013 and 2017
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PASI, Luciano. « An essay on some aspects of the economic theory of public goods ». Doctoral thesis, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/5031.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Defence date: 21 June 1993Examining Board: Pierre Dehez, Université Catholique de Louvain, supervisor ; Peter Hammond, Stanford University, supervisor ; Alan Kirman, EUI ; Michel Le Breton, GREQE, Marseille ; Ignazio Musu, Università di Venezia
First made available online on 15 July 2013.
The first part of this thesis is a discussion about the core and public goods, as well as a review of the relevant literature, which is mainly aimed to show the progression of the field. Part 2 deals with the game theoretic approach to economic behaviour: it provides -beside other things a discussion of the notion of domination that offers a clear explanation of the relation between the core and stable sets. I elaborate the idea that the usual characteristic function is not adequate to describe the process of coalition formation: the presence of public goods makes this task impossible. Informally, it is based on excessively pessimistic assumptions about the behaviour of the complementary coalition. Moreover, it seems to pay too much attention to the simple dialectic between one coalition and its complement: a more complex structure of coalitions is typically stable in the real world and 1 argue that the outcome described by a game in characteristic form -or some alternative description- should be able to explain it fully. Part 3 contains some basic notions on taxes and analyse the properties of tax allocation systems that have been proposed in the literature. Moreover, it studies the problem of voting as a way to provide legitimated choices of tax systems. In Part 4 1 am concerned with a particular allocation mechanism, that finds its theoretical environment in the literature on collective choices: the determination of the level and of the composition of public good bundles by means of voting systems. I consider existing voting models, and in particular, the relevance of the needed restrictions on the choice domain and on the distribution of preferences to assure the existence of an equilibrium outcome. I also prove that there is a simple way to avoid the non-egalitarian characteristics of the majority rule without altering its "good" properties. Since its presentation by Bowen (1943), the median voter theorem influenced many researches on spatial models of the electoral process. In Part 5 I give a slight generalization of the original theorem. Part 6 is devoted to the study of strategic voting: its main outcome is that tee act of voting strategically is very difficult and information-demanding in all relevant situations. The properties of the Borda rule are studied and a modification is proposed in order to further its stability against strategic actions. From my point of view the quite massive adjoined bibliography deserves the right to be presented as Part 8: it lists most of the relevant literature in the field of public economies appeared before 1993.
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Lin, Dan 1975. « Exploration of role of market in perishable goods ». Thesis, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/3533.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Firms face a big challenge in matching the supply of perishable goods with uncertain demand in real time. In practice, the traditional supply chain models are proved not efficiently enough to lower firms' risk exposure. The purpose of the dissertation is to provide the theoretical framework of roles of several stylized markets in firms' risk management. In particular, we explore the influence of the spot business-to-business exchange market, forward contract market and credit-default swap market respectively. The dissertation is divided into the following three chapters. In chapter 1, we show that when the exchange market lacks perfect liquidity, a firm's capital structure has a greater influence on its output-level decisions, then the market is perfectly liquid. The impact may be even greater than that without an exchange market. This is primarily because the introduction of the exchange market causes firms to act strategically in absence of perfect liquidity. In chapter 2, we study the essential relationship between producers' forward contracts and their supply strategies in business-to-business exchange market. Specifically, we focus on the application of the electricity power exchange market in the US. Our model reveals that the strategic incentive makes producers to join in forward contract market voluntarily and increases social welfare. We show in chapter 1 that even when firms' risks are independent of each other, there is a chance that the realization of market uncertainty turns out to be the same. As a result, there is no exchange market as a platform to help firms hedge their risks. Therefore, we need other instruments in firms' risk management portfolio. In chapter 3, we propose a financial market, credit-default swap market, in which firm s can temporarily transfer default risks to outside investors. However, the "lemon" problem may cause social cost.
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« Effect of inequality on cooperation : heterogeneity and hegemony in public goods dilemma ». 2010. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5894472.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Fung, Mang Yan.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 48-55).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Abstract --- p.4
Chinese Abstract --- p.5
Introduction --- p.6
Study 1 --- p.16
Method --- p.16
Results --- p.21
Discussion --- p.26
Study 2 --- p.26
Method --- p.28
Results --- p.33
Discussion --- p.41
General Discussion --- p.42
References --- p.48
Appendix A --- p.56
Appendix B --- p.58
Appendix C --- p.63
Appendix D --- p.65
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Cornes, Richard. « [Collection of publications]/Richard Cornes ». Phd thesis, 1993. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/116975.
Texte intégral
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« Essays on open-economy macroeconomics ». 2014. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b6115860.
Texte intégralRésumé :
本論文集收錄了三篇有關開放經濟宏觀經濟學的文章。第一篇文章研究了中國從1978年到2010年實際經濟週期。本文首先詳細記錄了中國實際經濟週期三十多年來經驗特征, 我們發現中國的實際經濟週期表現出不同于其他新興市場國家和發達國家的獨特的實際經濟週期經驗特征。再則，我們通過建立實際經濟週期模型和貝葉斯估計方法來檢驗現有新興市場實際經濟週期理論能夠在多大程度上解釋中國實際經濟週期。在我們的估計結果中，我們發現一個包含持久性生產力衝擊的基準模型不能很好的解釋中國實際經濟週期。而在基準模型的基礎上添加了國際金融摩擦的擴展模型（我們稱之為金融摩擦模型）能夠較好的解釋中國實際經濟週期。國際金融摩擦替代了持久性生產力衝擊的作用并優化了模型擬合。
第二篇文章研究了發展中國家廣泛使用的財政性油價穩定政策的福利影響。一些評論認為作為發展中國家的主要貿易對象的發達國家，特別是美國，能夠從發展中國家的油價穩定政策中獲利。我們的文章研究了這個論題，我們建立了一個具有美元非對稱性定價特征的兩國家模型。我們發現發展中國家的最優油價補貼率以及它的全球福利影響關鍵性的取決於是否貨幣政策能夠有效的應對油價衝擊。當貨幣政策能夠完全有效並且能夠央行使用最優貨幣政策時， 發展中國家則不需要財政性的油價穩定政策。然而當貨幣政策不能夠完全有效時，即使能夠使用最優貨幣政策，發展中國家還是需要油價補貼來穩定油價。而對美國來說，由於存在非對稱性的美元定價，美國反而受到福利損失。
第三篇文章研究了進口中間產品價格衝擊的福利影響和傳遞機制。隨著垂直貿易的快速發展，世界中間產品價格的波動成為了小型開放經濟體國家的主要不確定性衝擊之一。我們建立並且估計了一個兩部門的價格粘性的模型來解釋中間產品價格衝擊如何通過垂直貿易途徑對小型開放經濟體產生影響。我們發現其影響關鍵性的取決于垂直貿易結構和匯率制度。再次，其影響也顯著取決于國際金融市場准入的程度。
This thesis consists of three essays on Open-Economy Macroeconomics.
The first essay studies real business cycle in Chinese economy. During the past three decades, Chinas economy experienced sizable economic fluctuations along with rapid economic growth. However, the research on Chinese real business cycle is limited. In this paper, we document some stylized facts of Chinese real business cycle from 1978 to 2010. We find that Chinese real business cycle exhibits a mixed pattern that is not consistent with those of developed economies or emerging market economies. Moreover, we investigate to what extent the existing theories of emerging market real business cycle can explain Chinese data using Bayesian estimation of small open economy real business cycle models. Our results show that a benchmark model with permanent pro-ductivity shocks cannot account for stylized facts of Chinese real business cycle very well. Instead, a Financial-Friction model that augments the benchmark with inter-national financial friction significantly improves the model fitness. And international financial friction dominates the role of permanent productivity shocks.
The second essay studies oil price stabilization polices that are adopted extensively in developing countries. Some argue that developed economies, especially the US, may gain from these policies through trade. This paper studies this issue in a two-country model with dollar currency pricing. We find that the optimal level of oil price stabilization chosen by developing countries and its implications for global welfare depend critically on whether monetary policy can eectively respond to oil shocks. In an environment without monetary shocks, when optimal monetary policies are considered, there is no role for oil price stabilization in developing countries. However, to make the oil price stabilization policy redundant, optimal monetary policy is not necessary. Some non-optimal endogenous monetary policies satisfying certain conditions can also make the developing countries choose zero oil price stabilization. The results change when there are monetary shocks. Even with optimal monetary policies, the developing countries will choose a positive level of oil price stabilization. However, due to dollar currency pricing, the US actually loses from the stabilization policy. Our results are well supported by the quantitative analysis in a full-fledged dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.
The third essay studies the welfare implication and transmission mechanism of imported intermediate goods price shock. With the rapid growth of vertical trade in small open economies, the world price fluctuation of intermediate goods has increasingly become one of major uncertainties faced by these economies. This paper develops and estimates a two-sector sticky-price model to show how intermediate goods price shock affects small open economies through vertical trade. We find that the effects depend critically on the structure of vertical trade and exchange rate policy regime. Furthermore, the quantitative eects of intermediate goods price shock also change significantly with the degree of financial integration.
1. Real business cycle in Chinese economy -- 2. Oil price stabilization and global welfare -- 3. The effects of intermediate good price shocks on small open economy.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Wu, Zhouheng.
Thesis (Ph.D.) Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2014.
Includes bibliographical references.
Abstracts also in Chinese.
Livres sur le sujet "Intermediate goods – Econometric models"
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National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (India), dir. Comovement in business cycles and trade in intermediate goods. New Delhi : National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, 2013.
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Ishikawa, Jota. Rent-shifting export subsidies with an imported intermediate product. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1996.
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Ishikawa, Jota. Rent-shifting export subsidies with an imported intermediate product. Cambridge, Mass : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1996.
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Basu, Susanto. Intermediate goods and business cycles : Implications for productivity and welfare. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1994.
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Naho, Alexis M. Unanticipated money, intermediate imported goods, and outputs : The experience of Tanzania. [Dar es Salaam] : University of Dar es Salaam, Economic Research Bureau, 1996.
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Fuller, Frank. The location of marginal production for value-added and intermediate goods : Optimal policies and trade volumes. Ames, Iowa : Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, 1997.
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Huang, Kevin X. D. Specific factors meet intermediate inputs : Implications for strategic complementarities and persistence. Kansas City [Mo.] : Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2004.
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Huang, Kevin X. D. Specific factors meet intermediate inputs : Implications for strategic complementarities and persistence. Philadelphia, PA : Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, 2004.
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Spencer, Barbara J. Trade and protection in vertically related markets. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1989.
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Mazumdar, Joy. Trade and the skill premium in developing countries : The role of intermediate goods and some evidence from Peru. [Atlanta, Ga.] : Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 2002.
Trouver le texte intégralChapitres de livres sur le sujet "Intermediate goods – Econometric models"
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Myles, Gareth D. « Welfare Loss with Intermediate Goods ». Dans Models and Measurement of Welfare and Inequality, 821–40. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-79037-9_43.
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Çakır, Mustafa. « The Impact of Exchange Rates on Stock Markets in Turkey : Evidence from Linear and Non-Linear ARDL Models ». Dans Linear and Non-Linear Financial Econometrics -Theory and Practice. IntechOpen, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.96068.
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In this chapter we investigate the asymmetric impact of exchange rates on three major stock market indices in Turkey using four different ARDL models between 2003M1 and 2018M12. This chapter also attempts to differentiate the short-run and the long-run relationship between exchange rates and stock market indices namely BIST All shares, BIST National 100 index, and BIST National 30 index. Our motivating question is whether the relationship between exchange rates and three major stock market indices are symmetric or asymmetric in Turkey? To answer this, we first use the linear bivariate and multivariate models assuming the effects are symmetric. We then use the non-linear bivariate and multivariate models to examine whether exchange rate have symmetric or asymmetric effects on selected stock stock market indices in Turkey. The findings show that exchange rates have asymmetric effects on all three major stock market indices both in the short and long run. When we look at the long-run, the currency appreciation has positive and significant impact on selected stock markets but currency depreciation does not have an effect. This finding is in line with the understanding that Turkish sectors heavily depends on the import of raw and intermediate goods. The results also show that the economic activity has positive and significant effects on all stock markets implying that it is the main determinant in the long-run. Moreover, interest rates and volatility index were negative and significant in all markets. Thus, it has important implications for policy makers to provide stable prices and diverse investors.
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Tanaka, Migiwa. « Deflation in Durable Goods Markets : An Empirical Model of the Tokyo Condominium Market ». Dans Structural Econometric Models, 337–86. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/s0731-9053(2013)0000032011.
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Işığıçok, Erkan, Ramazan Öz et Savaş Tarkun. « Forecasting and Technical Comparison of Inflation in Turkey With Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Models and the Artificial Neural Network ». Dans Research Anthology on Artificial Neural Network Applications, 1194–216. IGI Global, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-6684-2408-7.ch057.
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Inflation refers to an ongoing and overall comprehensive increase in the overall level of goods and services price in the economy. Today, inflation, which is attempted to be kept under control by central banks or, in the same way, whose price stability is attempted, consists of continuous price changes that occur in all the goods and services used by the consumers. Undoubtedly, in terms of economy, in addition to the realized inflation, inflation expectations are also gaining importance. This situation requires forecasting the future rates of inflation. Therefore, reliable forecasting of the future rates of inflation in a country will determine the policies to be applied by the decision-makers in the economy. The aim of this study is to predict inflation in the next period based on the consumer price index (CPI) data with two alternative techniques and to examine the predictive performance of these two techniques comparatively. Thus, the first of the two main objectives of the study are to forecast the future rates of inflation with two alternative techniques, while the second is to compare the two techniques with respect to statistical and econometric criteria and determine which technique performs better in comparison. In this context, the 9-month inflation in April-December 2019 was forecast by Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) models and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), using the CPI data which consist of 207 data from January 2002 to March 2019 and the predictive performance of both techniques was examined comparatively. It was observed that the results obtained from both techniques were close to each other.
Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Intermediate goods – Econometric models"
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Ersungur, Ş. Mustafa, Mehmet Barış Aslan et Ömer Doru. « The Econometric Analysis in the Sectorial Basis of Income and Price Effects on the Foreign Trade Deficits : The Case of Turkey ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c08.01864.
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In Turkey which is one of the countries whose current account deficit has been chronic from the 1980s until today, the most important reason for the current account deficit is foreign trade deficit. The aim of our study in this context is to shed light on policies oriented foreign trade deficits by examining foreign trade of intermediate and capital goods which are one of the most important causes of foreign trade deficits in Turkey, in terms of income and exchange rate indicators. In the study in which the Marshall-Lerner condition and the foreign and domestic income elasticities were tested separately for each model, the Econometric method and quartile data between 1998 to 2014 were used. The results of the study showed that Marshall-Lerner condition is not valid in foreign trade of any goods group, and domestic and foreign income variable coefficients are strong effect on both imports and exports. In the direction of these results, we think that the economic policies to be developed for domestic and foreign revenues will be more effective than the real exchange rate policies for being decreased the foreign trade deficits of both intermediate and capital goods in Turkey.
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Hacıoğlu Deniz, Müjgan, et Kutluk Kağan Sümer. « The Effects of Oil Price Volatility on Foreign Trade Revenue and National Income : A Comparative Analysis on Selected Eurasian Economies ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01362.
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The aim of this study is to identify the effects of the volatility of oil prices and exchange rates on foreign trade revenue of a few selected Eurasian Economies. These countries are oil and natural gas exporting countries and getting most of their trade revenue from exporting these commodities. The effects of sharply falling oil prices since June 2014 and depreciating exchange rates on these countries’ external trade were analyzed by using alternative econometric models. The sample of this analysis covered the period from June 2014 when oil prices has started falling sharply – till June 2015 in which still world oil price is lower than the price of 140-150 dollars for per gallon in the previous years. Decreasing prices basically destabilize the revenues of these states since approximately two third (2/3) of their export revenue and substantial part of their budget revenue that comes from oil and natural gas. In Russian economy falling prices of oil depreciates both public revenue and economic activity. This means predominantly depending on one commodity for export and foreign trade makes these countries’ economies in dependence of that commodity’s price and makes these economies so vulnerable to global crisis and price volatilities. In order to avoid from this situation, these countries should divert their production and increase in variety for exporting goods.
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Koşan, Naime İrem, et Sudi Apak. « Trade Openness and Macroeconomic Policy in OECD Countries ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01373.
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Trade openness has been subject to an important issue many studies in literature. It allows us to analyze potential trade as a percentage of gross domestic product. Total value of international trade in goods and services shows the countries’ integration into the world economy. Generally, small countries are more integrated because of their dependency on imports. On the other hand, there many variables which effects trade integration. Our study focuses on to analyze the effects on trade openness and make inferences for OECD countries.
In this paper we aim to examine the relationship between trade openness and macro-economic indicators in OECD countries. To analyze the relationship, we used panel data regression analysis. Data obtained from World Bank, The Heritage Foundation and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The panel data covers 2000-2013 periods and 33 countries. The analysis made through the Stata econometric packet program. We predicted pooled, fixed effects and random effects panel data models and analyzed them.
It has been found that gross domestic savings, investment freedom, and unemployment rate are statistically significant. The results found in this paper show that investment freedom and gross domestic savings have positive effect on trade openness as we expected. On the other hand, unemployment rate has positive effect on trade openness. These findings have important policy implications for OECD countries. Our interpretation of these findings is that, integration to world economy has generally positive effects for macroeconomic factors in OECD countries, but it should be limited.