Thèses sur le sujet « Individual fertility »

This thesis contributes to enhance our knowledge on fertility decisions by addressing two major issues. First, it contributes to the understanding of the factors behind the differences in fertility levels among European countries by adopting a holistic perspective. Second, it adds to the fertility topic by examining the whole fertility decision-making process using a dyadic and a life-course perspective to address the ‘fertility gap’ that exists between desired family size and the actual number of children. In order to provide these contributions, this thesis is structured as follows. After a detailed review of the literature, major attention is dedicated to the analysis of the differences in terms of fertility levels between the European countries (Chapter 2). Chapter 3 investigates the fertility decision-making process exploiting the unique information of HILDA, which allows for a dyadic as well as longitudinal analysis of the overall process. The last chapter examines in-depth the transition to parenthood among couples of diverse ethnic origins in Australia.

Background Fertility transition has yet to accumulate a large set of studies withindividual level data to allow to make wide generalizations. Recently theavailability of data has become better. The current thesis is one step in thedirection of looking into the fertility transition as a whole with individuallevel data and by using event-history methods on the case of Estonia. Objective The study takes the cohort perspective to find out which birth cohorts at whichparities started the fertility transition, what were the different paths takenby urban and rural populations and how did birth spacing change over time. Methods We use register data collected by the First Estonian Republic, which has thefertility histories of birth cohorts of Estonian women born between 1845 and 1919,and fertility processes lasting until the year 1949. We analyse these withpiece-wise constant survival models separately for each parity; having birth cohort,urban-rural residency and piece-wise constant durations since previous birth asthe main variables. Results We find that that probability to next birth starts to decline earlier for thehigher parities and moves to lower parities for later cohorts. For parities 3-7women born in 1873-1880 are first with significantly lower hazard to next birth.For parity 2 the 1880-1887 birth cohort starts the transition. All paritiescontribute to the fertility decline. For the urban population the fertilitydecline is greater in proportion and also lasts less in birth cohorts, while forthe rural population the decline is more gradual and lasts longer. In the birthspacing dimension we find that the average interval between births becameshorter over time across all parities, and for both the urban and the ruralpopulation.

This thesis consists of three papers that explore variation in individual fertility and fertility preference. The setting for all three papers is the contemporary UK, though the conclusions have utility for a general understanding of human fertility. All three papers are motivated by theories arising from evolutionary biology, principally inclusive fitness theory and life history theory. The first two papers investigate actualised fertility and whether patterns of fertility in contemporary Britain are consistent with inclusive fitness theory. Both papers conduct secondary data analysis of the British Household Panel Study. Inclusive fitness theory predicts that because relatives share genes an individual may obtain fitness benefits by increasing the reproduction of a relative. Results support this hypothesis showing that for contemporary British women kin having more opportunities to influence reproductive decision-making is associated with pro-fitness fertility outcomes. In the first paper I find kin accelerate the transition to first birth, and the second paper shows kin also accelerate the transition to second birth. The final paper tests a different hypothesis derived from evolutionary theory. Life history theory predicts that reproductive strategy should have ‘plasticity’ and be liable to alter as perceived environmental risk changes. This paper uses primary data collected from University students using an internet experiment and finds that priming respondents using preceding questions on mortality does alter reported fertility preferences, though the effects depend upon the priming, fertility preference measure and the sex of the respondent. The paper also has methodological relevance as it demonstrates the potential for ‘context effects’ from preceding questions to influence the reporting of fertility preferences. All three papers present evidence that the incorporation of theories from evolutionary biology have utility in the understanding of contemporary fertility patterns and processes.

The fertility transition in nineteenth century Europe is one of economic history’s greatest puzzles. There is no consensus in the literature on the causes of this ‘fertility revolution’. Following a critical review of the empirical and theoretical literature, this thesis re-examines the economic correlates of the fertility decline through the analysis of two new datasets from England and France. For the first time, the relationship between wealth and fertility can be studied over the period of the fertility transition. Clear patterns are discovered, namely a strong positive relationship pre-transition which switches to a strongly negative relationship during the onset of the transition. Family limitation is initiated by the richest segments of society. I then introduce a simple model which links fertility and social mobility to levels of economic inequality. I argue that parents are motivated by relative status concerns and the fertility transition is a response to changes in the environment for social mobility, where increased mobility becomes obtainable through fertility limitation. This hypothesis is tested with the new micro data in England and France. Fertility decline is strongly associated with decreased levels of inequality and increased levels of social mobility. The analysis finds strong support for the role of changes in inequality and the environment for social mobility as central factors in our understandings of Europe’s fertility transition.

Increasing shares of European women are making large investments in their human capital. Whether and to what extent these investments are in conflict with reproductive behaviour are issues that have repercussions for fertility levels. Using two Eurobarometer survey data (2006 and 2011) on individuals clustered in the 27 EU countries, I investigate the relationship between women's education and lifetime fertility intentions. Results suggest that a positive association between women's level of education and lifetime fertility intentions exists at both the individual and country levels, as well as in a micro-macro integrated framework. The main explanation for these findings - which remains to be proven by future research - is that, in institutional contexts allowing highly educated women to have large families, women of reproductive ages are more prone to make investments in both human capital and family size, because these choices are not seen as incompatible alternatives. (author's abstract)

Master of Science
Department of Psychological Sciences
Gary Brase
An evolutionary perspective suggests that changes in resource availability produce changes in fertility decisions and desires, and that these adaptive mechanisms are sensitive to sociocultural factors that act more proximally to the decision-maker. The current work systematically investigates several factors as potential predictors of fertility decisions at the level of the individual decision-maker in a three-study design, adding to an existing literature of fertility decision-making that has focused on demographic-level shifts. In study 1 (N=228, 69.3% female, average age=25.6), study 2 (N=232, 72.4% female, average age=24.7), and study 3 (N=333, 67% female, average age=25.1) data was collected from a general Internet sample and a student sample. Findings suggest that high resource variability produces insecure romantic attachment, which is associated with increased fertility plans and desires. Further, this work indicates that fertility decision making mechanisms are sensitive to sociocultural factors, particularly gender roles and identities, cultural pressures to become a parent, mothering expectations, and relationship status. These findings suggest that demographic-level changes in fertility can be understood, with strong predictive models, at the individual-level of analysis.

In this dissertation, I examine individual decisions in occupational choice, labor supply, and health care utilization. Occupational choice decisions of female college graduates on whether to teach or not are analyzed to understand the role of fertility and relative wages using a panel estimation method. I also compare the behavioral changes in the labor force participation among teachers and non-teachers conditional on the presence of a new-born baby. Using the human capital model where a worker decides her hours of work responding to wages, and her human capital is accumulated proportional to her hours of work, I predict that the positive relationship between entry wages and post wages. Empirical evidence suggests that the shock in entry wages may be attributed to post wage differentials. I examine individuals?? choice of health insurance plan and utilization of health care services. Empirical evidence shows that there is favorable self-selection into health maintenance organizations (HMOs) plans and that HMO members use more of office-based and hospital outpatient services. It suggests ineffectiveness of HMO plans in reducing utilization.

Dans l’hémisphère Nord, les populations de grands herbivores ont connu ces dernières décennies des modifications environnementales majeures, liées d’une part à l’augmentation importante de leur densité, et d’autre part aux changements globaux qui affectent leur habitat (notamment réchauffement climatique, modification des activités humaines, et fragmentation de l’habitat). Mieux comprendre comment ces espèces vont adapter leurs stratégies d’histoire de vie pour répondre à ces modifications est une question majeure de l’écologie des populations, et une étape nécessaire pour pouvoir adapter leur gestion aux enjeux environnementaux et sociétaux actuels. C’est dans ce contexte que nous avons étudié quelles étaient les sources de variation des tactiques de survie et de reproduction chez trois espèces de grands herbivores de montagne (l’isard Rupicapra pyreneica, le chamois Rupicapra rupicapra, et le mouflon méditerranéen Ovis gmelini musimon × Ovis sp.). A partir de suivis longitudinaux par capture-marquage-recapture (CMR) nous nous sommes plus particulièrement focalisés sur le rôle de l’hétérogénéité individuelle latente, de la variabilité climatique et de la structuration spatiale sur les paramètres démographiques.Ce travail s’est appuyé sur l’utilisation de modèles de mélange et d’une combinaison innovante du robust-design et des modèles multi-événements pour analyser des données démographiques collectées à différentes échelles spatio-temporelles. L’hétérogénéité individuelle s’est avérée être une composante majeure de la démographie des 3 espèces étudiées, avec l’identification chez le mouflon et l’isard de femelles aux performances reproductives contrastées, et l’existence chez le chamois de différences de survie entre individus liées à la qualité de l‘habitat occupé. Ces modèles ont aussi permis de révéler une augmentation de l’investissement reproducteur en fin de vie chez les femelles de mouflon au détriment de leur survie et d’étudier chez les femelles d’isard les différentes phases de l’effort reproducteur, de la gestation au sevrage, pour mettre en évidence que seule la lactation a un coût sur la reproduction suivante. Nos résultats ont également mis en exergue le rôle prépondérant du climat hivernal et printanier sur les paramètres démographiques des 3 espèces, tout en confirmant que ces effets sont souvent spécifiques à la population et au site étudiés. Cette étude montre également que l’isard et le mouflon, bien que relativement comparables en termes de taille, de traits écologiques, et de position phylogénétique, adoptent des stratégies d’histoire de vie contrastées.Au final, nos résultats soulignent donc l’importance des études démographiques comparatives à plusieurs niveaux d’organisation (inter-espèces, inter-population, intra-population), pour mieux comprendre le devenir des espèces de grands herbivores face aux perturbations environnementales
In Northern hemisphere, populations of large herbivores have to cope with major environmental modifications linked to the increase of their density and to global change which strongly impacts their habitat (climate change, modification of human activities and habitat fragmentation). Understanding how these species adjust their life history strategies in response to such modifications is central for population ecology and for management issues. In this context, this work aimed to identify the sources of variation of survival and reproductive tactics in 3 species of mountain ungulate (Pyrenean chamois Rupicapra pyreneica, Alpine chamois Rupicapra rupicapra, and Mediterranean mouflon Ovis gmelini musimon × Ovis sp.). Using capture-mark-recapture monitoring we specifically investigated the role of individual heterogeneity, climate change, and spatial heterogeneity in shaping vital rates.This work relied on mixture models and an innovative combination of robust-design into a multi-events framework to explore demographic data collected at different spatio-temporal scales. Fixed heterogeneity appeared as a major demographic component in the 3 studied species by highlighting in mouflon and Pyrenean chamois two groups of females with contrasted reproductive performance, and by providing evidence in chamois of among-females differences in survival rates linked to the quality of their habitat. These models allowed us to provide evidence for the terminal investment hypothesis in female mouflon and to decompose reproductive effort in females of Pyrenean chamois from gestation to weaning, to unveil that lactation only led to cost on subsequent reproduction. Our results also highlighted the major influence of winter and spring climatic conditions on demographic parameters in the 3 studied species, and confirmed the general trend that climate effects are often species- and site-specific. Our findings provided evidence that Pyrenean chamois and mouflon evolved contrasted life history strategies, although both species share strong similarities in terms of body mass, ecological traits and phylogenetic position.Finally, our work stresses the importance of conducting comparative demographic studies, based on longitudinal monitoring of marked individuals, at inter-specific, inter-population and within population levels, to better understand and predict the future of large herbivores populations in the current context of global changes

This thesis studies the effects of import competition from China and Eastern Europe on the health and fertility decisions of German individuals working in manufacturing. Individuals are matched with separate measures of exposure to competition from China and Eastern Europe, respectively. To isolate exogenous supply shocks from the origin, instrumental variables for competition from each of China and Eastern Europe are constructed. Results in Chapter 1 suggest that higher import competition worsens individual health via job displacement, wage decline, shortened employment duration, increased reliance on welfare and less future orientation, with Chinese import competition affecting individuals twice as much. Health declines as individuals increase their visits to the doctor, exercise less frequently and have a higher probability of developing chronic illness. Also, there is some evidence that individuals do not tend to become disabled but may be slowly pushed into chronic illness. Findings in Chapter 2 show that import competition negatively affects the individual’s probability of having children via reduced earnings, lower satisfaction with personal income and shortened employment duration. The chapter then investigates effects of import exposure by gender. Results show that male and female fertility choices differ upon rising import competition. Higher import exposure lowers female earnings and job autonomy, which in turn generates a lower opportunity cost of work, to the point where having children would become a more rewarding alternative for female workers. By contrast, increased import exposure negatively affects male workers’ fertility through reduced earnings and employment duration.

In the context of population ageing and its consequences for future welfare state support, the issue of low fertility in Europe has become very topical over the past two decades. The role of policy and gender equality in explaining fertility behaviour has gained a prominent position in the literature and even today represents two streams that are believed to be important predictors of the current fertility outcomes in Europe. When building arguments regarding the policy effects on fertility behaviour, authors often implicitly assume that everyone living in a given country is entitled to support from particular statutory policy and/or that each individual is entitled to the same amount of support. However, although everyone of reproductive age is likely to make a decision about having children, the policy support does not mean the same thing for each one of them. Instead the set of rules on eligibility conditions clearly states who is entitled to welfare state support and how extensive this support is going to be. These rules consequently mediate the impact a child is going to have on an individual’s circumstances and therefore may influence the decision of whether or when to start a family and how big this family is going to be. The issue of within-country variation in the distribution of entitlements to policy support has been largely ignored in the comparative welfare state literature and has not been sufficiently acknowledged in fertility research. By focusing on the birth-related leave schemes in Europe, this thesis aims to address this gap. It does so by linking the individual-level survey data from EU-SILC with legislative rules from 27 European countries. Such an approach allows the identification of individuals that would be entitled to birth-related leave and compares how their socio-economic situation would change if they were to have a child. Apart from that the thesis is set into a wider context of contemporary fertility research that examines the role of gender issues in fertility behaviour. As such the thesis is particularly interested in the distribution of entitlements to birth-related leave between men and women and in the analyses pays special attention to the policy designs that strengthen traditional gender roles and whether they are associated with fertility behaviour.

The diploma thesis deals with the phenomenon singles and its development after 1989 in the territory of the Czech Republic. The implications of the phenomenon singles began gradually to appear after 2000. Theoretical part of the thesis contains explanation of concepts, possible causes of formation of this phenomenon, which in the recent past influenced the demographic indicators closely related to singles. Following practical part describes demographic indicators connected with phenomenon singles using graphs and carto diagrams based on data from the Czech Statistical Office. Also, the socio-economic data from research agency Median, s.r.o. and their research MML-TGI, which better capture the current development of phenomenon singles are shown. The conclusion is whether the hypotheses have been confirmed or refuted.

La presente tesi è un contributo allo studio delle implicazioni economiche delle intenzioni di fecondità e all’analisi degli aspetti economici legati ai processi decisionali riproduttivi. Precisamente la tesi, composta da tre capitoli indipendenti e basata su dati Italiani, si focalizza su donne, su individui che vivono in coppia e sulle coppie. In particolare lo studio mira a comprendere: i) l'interazione esistente tra il mercato del lavoro (con un focus particolare sul ruolo del settore occupazionale femminile) e le preferenze per la formazione della famiglia; ii) le influenze della ripartizione dei ruoli domestici all’interno della coppia sulle intenzioni riproduttive; iii) le determinanti (all’interno delle coppie) dell’accordo/disaccordo circa l'intenzione di diventare genitori una seconda volta, e -per coppie che registrano un disaccordo- iv) le determinanti che spingono una donna a contrastare l’intenzione positive del suo partner per un secondo figlio. La tesi utilizza il mixed-method design, una strategia basata sull’analisi quantitativa dei dati nonché sull’analisi approfondita di interviste: questo approccio consente di studiare l'argomento da diverse prospettive e -grazie ai due metodi di ricerca -quantitativo e qualitativo- di approfondire le conoscenze del fenomeno di interesse.
The thesis is a contribution to the study of the economic implications of fertility intentions and desires and of the economic aspects of the fertility decision making process. Precisely, it is based on three autonomous chapters and it aims at understanding: a) for women and for individuals within the couples the interplay between fertility and labour market preferences (with a particular focus on the role of women's sector of employment), and the influences that the (un)balanced division of domestic duties play on the intentions of becoming parents for another time in Italy; b) for couples living together the determinants of their (dis)agreement about the intention of becoming parents again; and c) for couples that disagree on future fertility plans, the determinants of female’s contrasting attitude towards her partners’ positive fertility intention. The dissertation uses a mixed-method design- a strategy based on survey data analysis as well as in-depth interviews analysis: this approach allows investigating the topic from different perspectives, by means of both quantitative and qualitative research methods in order to provide new insights into the phenomenon of interest.

The main subject of this thesis is examining the current state of marital behavior of young people in the Czech Republic and it's development after 1989, focusing on the growing number of single households and the related phenomenon singles. The work is based on the first part of the empirical data, particularly demographic data on family behavior. It highlights the impact of the second demographic transition on the current state of family life of young people and indicates a historical development of nuptality and fertility. In the practical part the focus is mainly on the analysis of the fundamental characteristics of family behavior after 1989. An integral part of my work is the research on the topic.

碩士
國立中正大學
社會福利研究所
104
Many researches that study the decline in fertility emphasize the importance of women's participation in labor. The studies indicate that there is not only a conflict between female employment and parenting, but also a fertility decline due to work. Some previous empirical studies have also shown that there is a negative correlation between female labor participation and fertility. According to literature reviews, the data analysis which were done by the OECD member countries find that there is a negative correlation between female labor rate and fertility before 1970.It consists with the theoretical expectation that employment is incompatible with the role of mothers. However, since 1990 the data analysis indicates that the negative correlation has turned to a significant positive correlation; therefore, this change leads to the question and discussion of whether women's labor participation has a negative impact on fertility. Based on this consideration, this research use the individual data of “Women’s Marriage, Fertility and Employment Survey, 2013” to analyze the relationship between women's labor participation and fertility in Taiwan. Specifically, this study is to explore the differences of the number of births between women who are employed and unemployed； the correlation between the working hours and the number of births; the differences of the number of births between women who are doing housework and not doing housework. the correlation between the hours of housework and the number of births; The impact of the number of housework hours on the number of births in the presence or absence of work.