Bibliographies thématiques / Impact scenarios

Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Impact scenarios »

Auteur : Grafiati
Publié le 10 mars 2023

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Impact scenarios"

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Wiederhielm, Curt A., R. Monastersky et Georgianna Henry. « Impact Scenarios ». Science News 141, no 14 (4 avril 1992) : 211. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3976408.

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&NA;. « AIDS impact scenarios ». Aids 4, no 11 (novembre 1990) : 1166–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/00002030-199011000-00025.

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Wang, D., W. Jia, S. C. Olsen, D. J. Wuebbles, M. K. Dubey et A. A. Rockett. « The impact of a future H<sub>2</sub>-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 2 : Stratospheric ozone ». Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 12, no 8 (6 août 2012) : 19423–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-19423-2012.

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Abstract. The prospective future adoption of hydrogen to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question whether the adoption would have adverse effects on stratospheric ozone. The possibility of these undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART chemical transport model. Since future growth is highly uncertain we evaluate the impact for two world evolution scenarios, one based on a high emitting scenario (IPCC A1FI) and the other on a low emitting scenario (IPCC B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario the world evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the same world evolution scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two bounding scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is much smaller than the increases in 2050 stratospheric ozone expected as stratospheric ozone recovers due to the limits in ozone depleting substance emissions imposed in the Montreal Protocol.
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Gunasekara, N. K., S. Kazama, D. Yamazaki et T. Oki. « The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change ». Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9, no 8 (3 août 2012) : 9239–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-9239-2012.

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Abstract. The effectiveness of population policy scenarios in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest Representative Concentration Pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that in combination with a more heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world, a more convergent, environmentally friendly emissions scenario, such as B1, can result in a high-impact climate scenario, similar to A2, for the already water-stressed low latitudes. However, the effect of population change supersedes the changes in the climate scenarios. In 2100, Africa, Middle-East and parts of Asia are in extreme water-stress under all scenarios. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario and the scenario with fertility- reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective at reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.
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Martin, C. Dianne. « Some surprising social impact scenarios ». ACM Inroads 3, no 3 (septembre 2012) : 16–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2339055.2339059.

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Wang, D., W. Jia, S. C. Olsen, D. J. Wuebbles, M. K. Dubey et A. A. Rockett. « Impact of a future H<sub>2</sub>-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 2 : Stratospheric ozone ». Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13, no 13 (1 juillet 2013) : 6139–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6139-2013.

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Abstract. The prospective future adoption of molecular hydrogen (H2) to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question of whether the adoption would have adverse effects on the stratospheric ozone. The possibility of undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on the stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers) model. Since future growth is highly uncertain, we evaluate the impact of two world evolution scenarios, one based on an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) high-emitting scenario (A1FI) and the other on an IPCC low-emitting scenario (B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the evolution growth scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two boundary scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is much smaller than the increases in 2050 stratospheric ozone projected, as stratospheric ozone is expected to recover due to the limits in ozone depleting substance emissions imposed in the Montreal Protocol.
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khademi Jolgeh Nejad, Afsaneh, Reza Ahmadi Kahnali et Ali Heyrani. « Developing Hospital Resilient Supply Chain Scenario through Cross-Impact Analysis Method ». Depiction of Health 12, no 4 (3 novembre 2021) : 310–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/doh.2021.30.

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Background and Objectives The hospital and its supply chain must be resilient in the critical situations. Developing scenario is an important tool for planning and decision-making process in these situations. Therefore, this study intended to develop possible scenarios for hospital supply chain resilience. Material and Methods This research study is applied in terms of purpose and is based the scenario method and the probabilistic trends approach. The participants of the study were 14 experts from two hospitals who were selected through a purposeful sampling method. The data obtained in the first phase of the semi-structured interviews, were coded and analyzed through using MAXQDA Software. In the next phase, the cross impact analysis questionnaire was used to develop the scenario and the analysis of the data was performed through Scenario Wizard software. Results The results of combining 35 states for 12 factors affecting hospital resilience which also included all possible future states, showed that 7 scenarios with high adaptation and 467 scenarios with poor adaptation can be considered. Strong scenarios were divided into three groups of scenarios as "optimistic", "intermediate" and "pessimistic" based on similarity and degree of desirability. Conclusion The Findings revealed that the strength of the impact of unfavorable states was more than that of favorable states. Therefore, for the resilience of the hospital supply chain, it is necessary to pay more attention to unfavorable scenarios to provide the necessary preparation to face those states, and with proper planning, the desired states can be achieved. Extended Abstract Background and Objectives The complexity and intensity of environmental fluctuations combined with unexpected accidents and dangers have increased the probability of hospital supply chain disruptions. The hospital and its supply chain must be intelligent to resist unforeseen events, so that in different situations, there is no work stoppage in their activities. Scenarios are an important tool for improving the planning and decision-making process in these situations. The purpose of this paper is to develop a scenario for hospital supply chain resilience. Material and Methods This research is based on the scenario method, and it is applied in terms of purpose. In addition, in the category of normative scenarios and based on the probabilistic modified trends (PMT) school. The Participants were 14 experts from two hospitals who were purposefully selected. The data obtained in the first phase from interviews, were coded and analyzed through MAXQDA Software. In the second phase, based on the participants' viewpoints, the possible states of each of the identified factors in the previous stage were defined, and the cross impact questionnaire was designed. The cross impact questionnaire is in the form of a matrix in which respondents determine the effect of each state on other states. Finally, cross impact analysis method and Scenario Wizard software were used to compile the scenario and compatibility coefficients and total impact score indices were used to examine compatible scenarios. Results Based on analysis results of the semi-structured interviews, 30 drivers of hospital supply chain resilience were identified. These factors were clustered in the form of 12 main components including: "staff preparedness and accountability in the event of a disaster", "safety of infrastructure and equipment", "recovery of infrastructure after disaster", "cooperation and participation of various organizations and communication systems among them", "support systems and potential hospital capacity", "coordination and flexibility of suppliers", "planning and management of disaster", "nature of accidents", "government policies", "sanctions on drugs and equipment", "people's culture at the time of the accident", and "funding". The output of Scenario Wizard software showed 7 strong scenarios that were divided into three groups of scenarios as "Optimistic", "pessimistic" and "interstitial" based on their rank and degree of desirability. The Optimistic scenarios include ideal resilient and hard resilient scenarios, the interstitial scenarios comprise high-capacity and troublesome challenging scenarios, and the pessimistic scenarios consist of vulnerable, defenseless and fragmented scenarios. Conclusion The results showed that the strength of the impact of undesirable situations was more than that of desirable situations. Hence, for the resilience of the hospital supply chain, it is necessary to pay more attention to undesirable scenarios in comparison to desirable ones in order to provide the necessary preparation to face those situations and to reach the desirable situations through proper planning. Practical Implications of Research Due to the challenges of traditional planning in the face of the future, in this study, the scenario developing approach was used as a tool to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of planning in the hospital supply chain. Managers and planners can substitute alternative futures for a single future and plan to take advantage of favorable future situations and avoid or reduce the effects of unfavorable future situations to be better prepared to face the future. Ethical Considerations In the present study, all ethical considerations have been observed based on the recommendations and regulations. Conflict of Interest The authors stated that there is no conflict of interest. Aknowledgment This article is based on the result of Afsaneh Khademi-Jolgehnejad’s Master thesis submitted to the University of Hormozgan and received approval code Under 11130.Authors are grateful to the consultants of the Clinical Research Development Center of Shahid Mohammadi Hospital and Bandar Abbas Children's Hospital for their cooperation and guidances.
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Sevindik, Selman, Catalina Spataru, Teresa Domenech Aparisi et Raimund Bleischwitz. « A Comparative Environmental Assessment of Heat Pumps and Gas Boilers towards a Circular Economy in the UK ». Energies 14, no 11 (24 mai 2021) : 3027. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14113027.

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This research compares the potential environmental impacts of heat pumps with gas boilers and scenario analysis through utilising the life cycle approach. The study analyses the current situation with the baseline model and assesses future applications with Circular Economy (CE), Resource Efficiency (RE) and Limited Growth (LG) scenarios. Then, hybrid applications of low-carbon technologies and different manufacturing scenarios are investigated according to baseline and CE scenarios. Our results show that the use and manufacturing phases are responsible for 74% and 14% of all environmental impacts on average as expected. Even though the electricity mix of the UK has decarbonised substantially during the last decade, heat pumps still have higher lifetime impacts than gas boilers in all environmental categories except climate change impact. The carbon intensity of heat pumps is much lower than gas boilers with 0.111 and 0.097 kg CO2e for air source heat pumps and ground source heat pumps, whereas the boiler stands as 0.241 kg CO2e. Future scenarios offer significant reductions in most of the impact categories. The CE scenario has the highest potential with a 44% reduction for heat pumps and 27% for gas boilers on average. RE and LG scenarios have smaller potential than the CE scenario, relatively. However, several categories expect an increase in future scenarios such as freshwater ecotoxicity, marine ecotoxicity and metal depletion categories. High deployment of offshore wind farms will have a negative impact on these categories; therefore, a comprehensive approach through a market introduction programme should be provided at the beginning before shifting from one technology to another. The 50% Hybrid scenario results expect a reduction of 24% and 20% on average for ASHP and GSHP, respectively, in the baseline model. The reduction is much lower in the CE scenario, with only a 2% decrease for both heat pumps because of the reduction in heat demand in the future. These results emphasise that even though the importance of the use phase is significant in the baseline model, the remaining phases will play an important role to achieve Net-Zero targets in the future.
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Yapıcıoğlu, Pelin Soyertaş. « Environmental impact assessment for a meat processing industry in Turkey : wastewater treatment plant ». Water Practice and Technology 13, no 3 (1 septembre 2018) : 692–704. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2018.051.

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Abstract The meat processing industry has many unfavorable impacts to the environment in Turkey. One of these impacts is wastewater treatment. Meat processing wastewater contains large amounts of proteins, fats, nutrients such as nitrogen, and pathogenic and non-pathogenic microorganisms and viruses. The high organic and hazardous content of wastewater causes environmental challenges for the flora and fauna in receiving water bodies unless it is treated adequately. Due to these reasons, the treatment process to be implemented should be the least damaging to the environment. In this study, three treatment scenarios that include a UASB (upflow anaerobic sludge bed) reactor (Scenario-1), an advanced oxidation process that includes UV/H2O2 treatment (Scenario-2) and a membrane bioreactor (Scenario-3) have been studied for a meat processor's wastewater treatment plant. For these three scenarios, an environmental impact assessment was undertaken using the Fine-Kinney method. The evaluation results revealed that Scenario-2 has the smallest environmental impact value with 475. Scenario-1 has the highest total environmental impact value as 765. Scenario-3's environmental impact value is 637. According to the evaluation results, the UV/H2O2 process is the most applicable technology for wastewater treatment in Turkey's meat industry.
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Abubakar Jumare, Ismail, Ramchandra Bhandari et Abdellatif Zerga. « Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Grid-Integrated Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems in Northern Nigeria ». Sustainability 11, no 21 (23 octobre 2019) : 5889. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11215889.

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Life cycle assessment is a crucial tool in evaluating systems performances for sustainability and decision-making. This paper provided environmental impact of integrating renewable energy systems to the utility-grid based on a baseline optimized energy production data from “HOMER” for renewable systems modelling of a site in northern Nigeria. The ultimate goal was to ascertain the best hybrid option(s) in sustaining the environment. Different assumptions and scenarios were modelled and simulated using Ganzleitlichen Bilanz (GaBi). Uncertainty analysis was ensured to the impact data based on pedigree-matrix and Excel-program, as well as overall policy relevance. The results of the impact categories revealed first scenario (i.e., conventional path-based) with the highest impacts on global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), human toxicity potential (HTP), and abiotic depletion potential (ADPfossils). The lowest impacts arise in the renewable-based scenarios for all the considered categories except the Ozone-layer depletion potential Category where the highest contribution falls in the third scenario (i.e., photovoltaic (PV)/biomass-biogas system) although all values being infinitesimal. In quantitative terms, the reduction in the GWP from the highest being the first scenario to the lowest being the fourth scenario (i.e., wind/biomass-biogas system) was 96.5%. Hence, with the outstanding contributions of the hybrid renewable systems, adopting them especially the lowest impact scenarios with expansions is relevant for environmental sustainability.
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Thèses sur le sujet "Impact scenarios"

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Arikoglu, Emine Serap. « The impact of scenarios and personas on requirement elicitation : an experimental study ». Thesis, Grenoble, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011GRENI033/document.

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La problématique centrale de la thèse est l'évaluation de l'impact de démarches utilisant la formulation de scénarios et de personnages sur les phases d'expression des besoins en conception innovante. La méthodologie de recherche mise en œuvre est une démarche empirique qui s'appuie sur l'analyse de situations de conception. Au cours du doctorat, un protocole expérimental mis en œuvre a été dupliqué trois fois dans des laboratoires partenaires. Cette recherche aboutit à un mémoire de thèse qui présente plusieurs contributions : La première contribution se situe autour de la méthodologie de recherche proposée. Le protocole d'étude empirique mis en place est original, il s'appuie sur l'état de l'art des réflexions de la communauté et sur ces démarches de recherche, et proposes des éléments nouveaux à cette réflexion en conciliant approches quantitatives et qualitatives. La seconde contribution porte sur la caractérisation de l'impact des méthodologies étudiées sur la construction d'une représentation partagée du problème de conception et de la formalisation des exigences de conception. Enfin la troisième contribution porte sur l'analyse des interactions dans les activités de conception étudiées. Les analyses identifient et qualifient les impacts des méthodes étudiées sur le contenu des interactions dans les phases amont de la conception
In this study, we are more concerned with the early stages of the new product design: the product definition phase. The fundamental purpose of this phase is to gather right kind of information in a way that allows the formalization of stakeholder needs into a set of requirements. Literature review on this phase shows the difficulty to elicit needs of so called intended users and have a shared understanding of their requirements between design actors. To overcome these obstacles, support methods can be used. However, the appropriateness and effectiveness of the various methods is unknown. Our assumption in this research project is that scenarios and personas can be used as support methods to handle above-mentioned obstacles. An experiment is designed and conducted in a laboratory environment in order to test this assumption. The question of whether they have an impact on the creation of shared understanding between design actors is discussed under two sub-categories: perspective clarification and convergence to a common perspective. On the other hand, their impact on the elicitation of the intended user requirements is observed under three sub-categories: requirement elicitation, capture of the design rationale and creation of the empathy. Some qualitative and quantitative indicators are proposed to evaluate these impacts. Based on the analysis of seven observed collaborative design sessions, the findings of research study are discussed. The results points out that the major impact of these methods is that they evoke empathy for the intended users. In the groups that these methods are used the discussions are also richer regarding to the number of different needs are addressed. Moreover, these methods are also promising to keep the trace of design rationale. However design actors have tendency to accept them just as communication support, rather than documentation one. As a communication support they help design actors to clarify their arguments, to negotiate and to take decisions. However, the findings were not adequate to conclude that they have a significant impact on the perspective clarification and convergence. Hence, the main contribution of this research lies from one part in the evaluation of the impacts of these methods in requirement elicitation activity. And, in other part description of a research approach, which guides the experimental study in engineering design
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Zanette, Alberto <1997&gt. « The impact of Quantum Computing on business models : possible scenarios ». Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/20843.

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The "quantum race" and the quantum computer, a type of computational architecture based on principles of quantum physics, are about to get to the heart. Thanks to the research at the Digital Innovation Observatories of the Politecnico di Milano, I got to know this new technology that promises to redesign the concept of computers, guaranteeing a computational power unreachable by traditional computers. Probably we can think that the quantum computer is futuristic, still a hypothesis, the reality says something else: we can already develop applications and algorithms on (though primitive) quantum architectures. What will be the effect of the Quantum Computer? On which sectors? And how could it impact the business models of companies in these sectors? These are some questions that I would like to investigate in this work.
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Ali, Azhar. « End of life scenarios for the Re-load pallets-how different waste scenarios impacts the life cycle environmental impact comparison with other pallet type ». Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, Sektionen för ekonomi och teknik (SET), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-15578.

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Increasing consumption and transportation gears the use of transport utilities which cause environmental effects over the globe. Environmental performance of three different types of pallets such as Re-load, plastic and corrugated fibreboard pallets are evaluated in this project. LCA tool is used to assess and compare their environmental performance in all phase of their life cycle but more focusing on end of life phase.   This study gives more emphasis to waste treatment options such as incineration, landfilling and recycling. Three different end of life scenarios have been used in this study such as 100% incineration, 100% landfilling and 100% recycling.   This study includes results of all the phases of all three types of pallets which are analysed in this report. More detailed results could be seen in excel sheets. Results of impact analysis tells that landfilling contributes to 14793 Kg CO2 of global warming potential in case of corrugated pallets. Incineration contributes to 12148.6 Kg CO2 of global warming potential. Recycling contributes to 7136 Kg CO2 of global warming. Re-load pallets show the major contribution of global warming is from landfilling approx 813.2 Kg CO2 of global warming potential. Recycling and incineration contribute to 438 Kg CO2 and 726.7 Kg CO2 of global warming potential respectively. In plastic case incineration contributes the most to global warming approximate 1183.8 Kg CO2 of global warming potential. Landfilling and recycling contribute almost the same approximate 932.6 Kg CO2 of global warming potential and 924.5 Kg CO2 of global warming potential respectively. Acidification impact show corrugated pallets cause high emissions when they are treat with landfilling and give negative values of incineration. In Eutriphication impact corrugated pallets are considered better in a sence they are inbetween 150 and 100 kg of PO-4. Re-load pallets give the least values when they are applied to different end of life scenarios.   According to the results recycling could be replace other waste treatment options because of less impact through out the end of life. Secondly, Reload pallets represent a environmental friendly product which can be improved more after this study. Lack of LCI data is the major problem in this study because it is not easily accessible and it is very time consuming part of this study. Results might be different if more data is available.   This study can be helpful for further study, for instance more replaceable scenarios will show different results for all three types of pallets. Moreover, it helps to compare more pallet types which are already in the market or propose to come in the market.
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Weston, Antonia-Jane Sarah. « Earthquake impact scenarios : a GIS-based case study for Colchester, UK ». Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.410077.

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Ashok, Akshay. « The air quality impact of aviation in future-year emissions scenarios ». Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/68168.

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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2011.
This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 104-112).
The rapid growth of aviation is critical to the world and US economy, and it faces several important challenges among which lie the environmental impacts of aviation on noise, climate and air quality. The first objective of this thesis addresses the requirements of section 753 of the US Energy Policy Act, and entails the quantification of present and future-year regional air quality impacts of US Landing and Take-Off (LTO) aviation emissions. In addition, this thesis characterizes the sensitivity of these impacts to variations in the projection of non-aviation anthropogenic emissions (referred to as background emissions). Finally, the implication of a future-year background emissions scenario on the current policy analysis tool, the response surface model (RSMv2), is discussed. Aviation emissions for 2006 are generated using the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), while future-year aviation emissions are developed for 2020 and 2030 using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP/8) NOx Stringency scenario #6. Background emissions for the year 2005 and 2025 are generated from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emissions Inventory (NEI), and two additional sensitivity scenarios are derived from the emissions forecasts. Uncertainties in present and forecast aviation and background emissions are also characterized. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is evaluated to quantify its performance in predicting ambient PM2.5 and ozone concentrations, and it is used to estimate aviation air quality impacts of aviation. Future-year aviation particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are found to increase by a factor of 2 and 2.4 by 2020 and 2030, and are dominated by nitrate and ammonium PM. Aviation 8-hour daily maximum ozone is seen to grow by a factor of 1.9 and 2.2 by 2020 and 2030, with non-homogeneous spatial impacts. Aviation PM2.5 varies by +/-25% with a +/-50% variation of the forecast change in background emissions, while changes in ozone impacts are less symmetric at +34%/-21%. The RSMv2 is shown to under-predict future-year aviation nitrate and ammonium PM2.5. Finally, the implications of these results on the aviation industry and on aviation policy are discussed.
by Akshay Ashok.
S.M.
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Bergström, Sofia. « The Impact of Antennas on Radiolink Performance in Frequency Hopping Scenarios ». Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Signaler och System, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-371812.

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This paper investigates how the communication performance of frequency hopping systems are affected by the antenna parameters. The data are generated from Antenna Toolbox in Matlab for the case of two dipole antennas is free space. Non-orthogonal and orthogonal frequency hopping are used and the statistical impact from the antenna on the SINR is investigated. The results can be used to see the wave propagation margin and also see the effects of out-of-bands emissions in frequency hopping systems. The numerical generated model is compared to two isotropic antenna models and it shows that the isotropic models are relatively good despite its simplicity in this case. It does however not capture the spread caused by the directivity. Another model is created which mimic the numerical generated statistical distribution. This model uses the theoretical probability of a collision for both orthogonal and non-orthogonal frequency hopping. The model also uses mean values of directivity, s-parameters and the spread of the gain to calculate a statistical antenna model. This model is better than the isotropic for the tested cases and shows that it is possible to generate a statistical model.
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Mayberry, Timothy A. « Analysis and modeling of relative brain motion for various head impact scenarios ». Connect to resource, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1811/32066.

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Arikoglu, Serap. « The impact of scenarios and personas on requirement elicitation : an experimental study ». Phd thesis, Université de Grenoble, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00625785.

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La problématique centrale de la thèse est l'évaluation de l'impact de démarches utilisant la formulation de scénarios et de personnages sur les phases d'expression des besoins en conception innovante. La méthodologie de recherche mise en œuvre est une démarche empirique qui s'appuie sur l'analyse de situations de conception. Au cours du doctorat, un protocole expérimental mis en œuvre a été dupliqué trois fois dans des laboratoires partenaires. Cette recherche aboutit à un mémoire de thèse qui présente plusieurs contributions : La première contribution se situe autour de la méthodologie de recherche proposée. Le protocole d'étude empirique mis en place est original, il s'appuie sur l'état de l'art des réflexions de la communauté et sur ces démarches de recherche, et proposes des éléments nouveaux à cette réflexion en conciliant approches quantitatives et qualitatives. La seconde contribution porte sur la caractérisation de l'impact des méthodologies étudiées sur la construction d'une représentation partagée du problème de conception et de la formalisation des exigences de conception. Enfin la troisième contribution porte sur l'analyse des interactions dans les activités de conception étudiées. Les analyses identifient et qualifient les impacts des méthodes étudiées sur le contenu des interactions dans les phases amont de la conception.
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Calado, Zettergren Carl Alexander. « Watching Scenarios Of Undue Influence : Impact On Emotional Reaction Depends On Viewing Technology ». Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-300445.

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The Swedish police authority is currently undertaking projects to strengthen the safety of the working environment for police employees. An issue identified in audits related to these projects is that police employees are facing what is called undue influence: events that affect on an emotional level and can induce a social-anxiety-like mindset of self-censorship. This project explores the use of 360-degree video as material for preparing for undue influence and for facilitating discussion about definitions of undue influence among police employees and across regional departments. This involves production of 360-degree video-material and a comparative study. The video-production is an example of both how a scenario of undue influence can be portrayed, and of what resources are needed to capture such a scenario. The study explored differing effects on feelings of presence and emotional reactions towards the scenario depending on the viewing technology. The compared viewing technologies were flat-screen monitors and a head mounted display. Results indicate that viewing with the head mounted display prompted stronger reactions on some emotion-subscales and on self-location related feelings of presence.
Den svenska Polismyndigheten genomför för närvarande projekt för att stärka säkerheten i arbetsmiljön för polisanställda. En fråga som identifierats i interna granskningar relaterade till dessa projekt är att polisanställda möter det som kallas otillbörlig påverkan: händelser som påverkar på en emotionell nivå och kan framkalla det social ångest-liknande fenomenet självcensur. Detta projekt utforskar användningen av 360-graders video som material för att förbereda sig för otillbörlig påverkan och för att underlätta diskussioner om definitioner av otillbörlig påverkan bland polisanställda och mellan polisregioner. Detta innefattar framställning av 360-graders videomaterial och utförande av en jämförande studie. Videoproduktionen är ett exempel på både hur ett scenario av otillbörlig påverkan kan porträtteras och vilka resurser som behövs för att skapa ett sådant scenario. Studien undersökte olika effekter på känslor av närvaro samt känslomässiga reaktioner gentemot scenariot beroende på visningstekniken. De jämförda visningsteknikerna var platta skärmar och en “head-mounted display”. Resultaten indikerar att visning med “head-mounted display” producerade starkare reaktioner på vissa av de uppmätta känsloskalorna och platsillusions-relaterade känslor av närvaro.
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Surendrababu, Jayashree. « Modeling the Impact of Projected Land Cover on Lyme Disease Emergence ». Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/64242.

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Lyme disease is a common tick borne disease in the US. Lyme disease emerged from the Northeast and in the past decade, Virginia has been witnessing a rapidly increasing trend in incidence. This thesis uses land cover projection data as a basis to look at the potential future trend of Lyme disease incidence in Virginia for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change) scenarios of A1B and A2, which indicate a global and regional focus respectively. This study is a continuation of previous work done by an NSF funded research team at Virginia Tech, in exploring the variables affecting Lyme disease in Virginia. A Poisson point process is implemented in this thesis with land cover parameters (implemented land, water bodies, and edge metrics) and demographic parameters (population percentage and per capita income) as the spatial covariates. Lyme disease incidence data obtained from the Virginia Department of Health was used for model validation. The overall model was implemented using Python and its associated libraries while ArcGIS software was used for preliminary covariate analysis and data visualization. This thesis generates risk maps for A1B and A2 scenarios for each decade from 2010 through 2060. Spatial occurrence of disease incidence has been generated by the Poisson point process and the risk level of each county in Virginia has been calculated based on the incidence count predicted for it. Population and area at risk under each scenario for each decade was calculated. Results show that in A1B scenario 22.1% and 42.9% of the total population of Virginia are under high risk and in the A2 scenario, 21% and 33% of the total population of Virginia are under high risk of Lyme disease in 2010 and 2060 respectively. In terms of the area, A1B scenario has 28% under high risk in 2010 and 66% of the total area under high risk in 2060, while A2 scenarGIS, Lyme disease, Land cover projections, IPCC scenariosio has 22.4% under high risk of Lyme disease in 2010 62.7% of the total area in Virginia is under high risk in 2060.
Master of Science
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Livres sur le sujet "Impact scenarios"

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Teresa, Ribeiro, et European Environment Agency, dir. Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessments. Luxembourg : Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2001.

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Cheong, Inkyo. Impact of trade liberalization under alternative scenarios. Seoul : Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, 1997.

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University of Sussex. Science Policy Research Unit., Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment., University of East Anglia. Climatic Research Unit. et Policy Studies Institute, dir. Socio-economic futures : Scenarios for climate impact assessment. Brighton : University of Sussex, Science Policy Research Unit, 1999.

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Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu (Netherlands) et United Nations Environment Programme, dir. Four scenarios for Europe : Based on UNEP's third Global environment outlook. Nairobi, Kenya : UNEP, 2003.

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Alcamo, Joseph. Scenarios as tools for international environmental assessment. Copenhagen, Denmark : European Environment Agency, 2001.

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Robinson, P. J. Strategies for the development of climate scenarios for impact assessment : Phase I final report. Research Triangle Park, NC : U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Atmospheric Research and Exposure Assessment Laboratory, 1990.

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Programme, UK Climate Impacts, dir. Socio-economic scenarios for climate change impact assessment : A guide to their use in the UK Climate Impacts Programme. Oxford : UK Climate Impacts Programme, 2001.

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Associazione studi e ricerche per il Mezzogiorno. Italian logistics system : Impact on the economic development : scenarios, analysis of infrastructures and case studies. Soveria Mannelli (Catanzaro) : Rubbettino, 2014.

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Sutherland, Ronald J. The impact of high energy price scenarios on energy-intensive sectors : Perspectives from industry workshops. Argonne, Ill : Argonne National Laboratory, 1997.

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Sumaila, Ussif Rashid. Impact of management scenarios and fishing gear selectivity on the potential economic gains from Namibian hake. Bergen : Chr. Michelsen Institute, 1999.

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Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Impact scenarios"

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Schlüter, Franz-Hermann. « Impact Scenarios ». Dans The Risks of Nuclear Energy Technology, 249–59. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-55116-1_13.

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Jungermann, Helmut. « Psychological Aspects of Scenarios ». Dans Environmental Impact Assessment, Technology Assessment, and Risk Analysis, 325–46. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-70634-9_13.

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Parry, Martin L., Timothy R. Carter et Nicolaas T. Konijn. « Development of the Climatic Scenarios ». Dans The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture, 751–72. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-2943-2_29.

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Parry, Martin L., Timothy R. Carter et Nicolaas T. Konijn. « Selection of the Climatic Scenarios ». Dans The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture, 399–412. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-2965-4_17.

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Parry, Martin L., Timothy R. Carter et Nicolaas T. Konijn. « Selection of the Climatic Scenarios ». Dans The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture, 399–412. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-2967-8_17.

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Arnell, Nigel W. « Scenarios for Hydrological Climate Change Impact Studies ». Dans The Role of Water and the Hydrological Cycle in Global Change, 389–407. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-79830-6_14.

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Selle, Per, Kristin Strømsnes et Stein Kuhnle. « Scenarios for Civil Society Impact in Norway ». Dans Civil Society : Concepts, Challenges, Contexts, 397–412. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-98008-5_28.

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Parry, Martin L., Timothy R. Carter et Nicolaas T. Konijn. « Background to the Methods, Models and Scenarios ». Dans The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture, 593–611. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-2965-4_30.

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Parry, Martin L., Timothy R. Carter et Nicolaas T. Konijn. « Background to the Methods, Models and Scenarios ». Dans The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture, 593–611. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-2967-8_30.

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Parry, Martin L., Timothy R. Carter et Nicolaas T. Konijn. « Drought Climatology and Development of the Climatic Scenarios ». Dans The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture, 149–73. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1988. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-2965-4_5.

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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Impact scenarios"

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Chapman, Clark. « NEO Impact Scenarios ». Dans 2004 Planetary Defense Conference : Protecting Earth from Asteroids. Reston, Virigina : American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.2004-1416.

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Kerr, G. L., et H. Bjornlund. « Case study, scenarios and the exploration of humans’ subjectivity for market-based instrument success : an integrated framework ». Dans ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT 2012. Southampton, UK : WIT Press, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/eid120371.

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Woelke, Pawel, Eric Hansen, Chad McArthur, Najib Abboud, Darren Tennant et James Wesevich. « Investigation of Ship Impact Scenarios and Mitigation Measures ». Dans ASME 2015 34th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2015-42296.

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Ship impact is an important loading scenario for analysis and design of bridges, oil platforms, and other marine structures. Ships collision is also a very important design consideration for ship hulls. Designing structures to resist both accidental and intentional ship impact requires characterization of the impact loading history. Standard design practice relies on simplified methods to determine the impact loads, which typically consider only speed and mass of the vessel. However, ship impact is a complicated non-linear structural dynamic event that depends not just on the size and mass of the vessel, but also local stiffening pattern, location and function of the bulkheads, possible ice-strengthening classification, draft, presence of the bulbous bow, and many other factors. Neglecting these factors can lead to overestimation or underestimation of the loads, depending on a specific scenario. The discrepancies between simplified load estimates and detailed finite element analyses are investigated in this paper.
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Remy, Guillaume, Sidi-Mohammed Senouci, Francois Jan et Yvon Gourhant. « LTE4V2X - impact of high mobility in highway scenarios ». Dans 2011 Global Information Infrastructure Symposium (GIIS). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/giis.2011.6026706.

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Llana, Patricia G. « Structural Crashworthiness Standards Comparison : Grade-Crossing Collision Scenarios ». Dans ASME 2009 Rail Transportation Division Fall Technical Conference. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/rtdf2009-18030.

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In support of the Federal Railroad Administration’s (FRA) Railroad Equipment Safety Program, American and European grade-crossing collision scenarios were evaluated and compared. Finite element analyses (FEA) were employed to subject an FRA-compliant passenger car to grade-crossing collision scenarios defined in both the proposed FRA Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) and European Standard (EN) 15227. The proposed FRA collision scenario involved a single car impacted by a cart. The cart had a punch mounted to it to hit a specific post of the end frame of the car. The EN 15227 collision scenario involved a complete train consist impacting a large deformable obstacle that approximates a lorry. The analyses show that these collision scenarios, while both grade-crossing scenarios, are very different not only in terms of the impact object and the amount of initial kinetic energy involved, but also in terms of how the car is loaded and deformed during impact. The FRA scenario is shown to be easier to analyze as well as easier to test than the EN 15227 scenario. Additionally, the FRA scenario is safer to test because of the levels of initial energy involved. The FRA scenario also provides clearer metrics of success. The FRA-compliant car utilized in the analyses and test conducted for this paper passed both FRA and EN 15227 grade-crossing collision scenarios according to the requirements for each respective standard. However, the analyses show that despite both scenarios providing for energy absorption in a grade-crossing collision, because the manner in which the car is loaded and deformed (concentrated vs. distributed) is different, the FRA performance standard and EN 15227 grade-crossing collision scenarios are not equivalent and mutual compliance is not guaranteed.
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Tien, Shin-Lai (Alex), Christine P. Taylor et Craig R. Wanke. « Identifying Representative Weather-Impact Scenarios for Flow Contingency Management ». Dans 2013 Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference. Reston, Virginia : American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.2013-4216.

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Tien, Shin-Lai, Christine P. Taylor et Craig R. Wanke. « Representative Weather-Impact Scenarios for Strategic Traffic Flow Planning ». Dans 14th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference. Reston, Virginia : American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.2014-2714.

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Pandolfi, Stefania. « Impact of general reionization scenarios on extracting inflationary parameters ». Dans 25th Texas Symposium on Relativistic Astrophysics. Trieste, Italy : Sissa Medialab, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.22323/1.123.0263.

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Kabbes, Karen C., Stephen McCracken et John W. Hood. « Determining Cost Effective Pollution Reduction BMP Scenarios for Low Impact Redevelopment and a Watershed Plan Using WinSLAMM ». Dans International Low Impact Development Conference 2008. Reston, VA : American Society of Civil Engineers, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/41009(333)57.

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Jacobsen, Karina. « Fuel Tank Crashworthiness : Loading Scenarios ». Dans 2011 Joint Rail Conference. ASMEDC, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/jrc2011-56077.

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The Federal Railroad Administration’s Office of Research and Development is conducting research into fuel tank crashworthiness. The breaching of fuel tanks during passenger rail collisions and derailments increases the potential of serious injury and fatality due to fire. This paper identifies and describes common collision loading scenarios for locomotive fuel tanks on the U.S. general railroad system. Developing scenarios that characterize this situation is the first step in crashworthiness research methodology for improving rail equipment safety. A survey of accidents within the U.S. between 1995 and present was used to identify fuel tank impact scenarios as follows: impact with adjacent railcar component; oblique impact with another railcar; rollover leading to impact with another railcar; derailment or rollover leading to grounding; and impact with rail. These collision scenarios are further categorized by the types of collision modes experienced by the fuel tank, i.e. impact type and impact location. These loading conditions establish targets for evaluating current levels of fuel tank integrity and potentially developing improved strategies for enhancing fuel tank integrity.
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Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Impact scenarios"

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Tieszen, S. R. Fuel dispersal modeling for aircraft-runway impact scenarios. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), novembre 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/155780.

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Tieszen, S. R., et S. W. Attaway. Fuel dispersal in high-speed aircraft/soil impact scenarios. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), janvier 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/188568.

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Haddad, Eduardo A., Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte, Inácio F. Araújo-Junior et Vinicius A. Vale. Impact Assessment of Scenarios of Interregional Transfers in Colombia. Bogotá, Colombia : Banco de la República, octobre 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/dtseru.272.

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Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, et Kuishuang Feng. The labor impact of coal phase down scenarios in Chile. Inter-American Development Bank, octobre 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0001961.

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Napier, B. A., B. L. Harper, N. K. Lane, D. L. Strenge et R. B. Spivey. Human scenarios for the screening assessment. Columbia River Comprehensive Impact Assessment. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), mars 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/212503.

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Althibah, Amir M., Tarek Al Kebsi, Clemens Breisinger, Wilfried Engelke, Sharad A. Tandon, Mariam Raouf et Manfred Wiebelt. Yemen : Economy-wide impact of conflict and alternative scenarios for recovery. Washington, DC : International Food Policy Research Institute, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.133418.

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Bergin, Adele. Ireland and Brexit : modelling the impact of deal and no-deal scenarios. ESRI, mars 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.26504/qec2019spr_sa_bergin.

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Aftandilian, Gregory. Presidential Succession Scenarios in Egypt and Their Impact on U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations. Fort Belvoir, VA : Defense Technical Information Center, septembre 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada552046.

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Poyer, D., A. Teotia, R. Hemphill, L. Hill, J. Marinelli, K. Rose et D. Santini. An economic assessment of the impact of two crude oil price scenarios on households. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), février 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/7162763.

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Paul, C., et J. F. Cassidy. Seismic hazard investigations at select DND facilities in Southwestern British Columbia : subduction, in-slab, and crustal scenarios. Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/331199.

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Southwest British Columbia has some of the highest seismic hazard in Canada and is home to facilities owned by the Department of National Defence which support operations on the west coast of Canada. The potential impact of seismic hazards on these government facilities are investigated here. The hazard is from three primary sources: subduction interface, crustal and in-slab earthquakes. NRCan, in consultation with DRDC have produced representative earthquake scenarios for each of these sources. The subduction scenario we constructed was an M8.9 earthquake extending along the entire Cascadia Subduction Zone from 4 to 18 km depth. We used an M6.8 earthquake occurring along a 30 km fault at between 52 and 60 km depth below Boundary Bay to represent in-slab events. The final scenario, representing a crustal source, was an M6.4 along the central 47 km of the Leech River Valley-Devil's Mountain Fault system. We found that the Cascadia subduction scenario dominated the shaking hazard over much of the study region. Meanwhile, the in-slab and crustal scenarios have higher but more localized hazards in Vancouver and Victoria. In addition to the primary ground motion hazard, we also examined secondary seismic hazards: secondary amplification effects, landslides, liquefaction, surface ruptures, tsunami, flooding, fire, and aftershocks. Each of the secondary hazards had varying impacts depending on the scenario and locations within the region.
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