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1
Doyle, John R. « Survey of time preference, delay discounting models ». Judgment and Decision Making 8, no 2 (mars 2013) : 116–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500005052.
Texte intégralRésumé :
AbstractThe paper surveys over twenty models of delay discounting (also known as temporal discounting, time preference, time discounting), that psychologists and economists have put forward to explain the way people actually trade off time and money. Using little more than the basic algebra of powers and logarithms, I show how the models are derived, what assumptions they are based upon, and how different models relate to each other. Rather than concentrate only on discount functions themselves, I show how discount functions may be manipulated to isolate rate parameters for each model. This approach, consistently applied, helps focus attention on the three main components in any discounting model: subjectively perceived money; subjectively perceived time; and how these elements are combined. We group models by the number of parameters that have to be estimated, which means our exposition follows a trajectory of increasing complexity to the models. However, as the story unfolds it becomes clear that most models fall into a smaller number of families. We also show how new models may be constructed by combining elements of different models.The surveyed models are: Exponential; Hyperbolic; Arithmetic; Hyperboloid (Green & Myerson, Rachlin); Loewenstein and Prelec Generalized Hyperboloid; quasi-Hyperbolic (also known as β-δ discounting); Benhabib et al’s fixed cost; Benhabib et al’s Exponential / Hyperbolic / quasi-Hyperbolic; Read’s discounting fractions; Roelofsma’s exponential time; Scholten and Read’s discounting-by-intervals (DBI); Ebert and Prelec’s constant sensitivity (CS); Bleichrodt et al.’s constant absolute decreasing impatience (CADI); Bleichrodt et al.’s constant relative decreasing impatience (CRDI); Green, Myerson, and Macaux’s hyperboloid over intervals models; Killeen’s additive utility; size-sensitive additive utility; Yi, Landes, and Bickel’s memory trace models; McClure et al.’s two exponentials; and Scholten and Read’s trade-off model.For a convenient overview, a single “cheat sheet” table captures the notation and essential mathematics behind all but one of the models.
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Angeletos, George-Marios, David Laibson, Andrea Repetto, Jeremy Tobacman et Stephen Weinberg. « The Hyperbolic Consumption Model : Calibration, Simulation, and Empirical Evaluation ». Journal of Economic Perspectives 15, no 3 (1 août 2001) : 47–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.15.3.47.
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Laboratory and field studies of time preference find that discount rates are much greater in the short run than in the long run. Hyperbolic discount functions capture this property. This paper presents simulations of the savings and asset allocation choices of households with hyperbolic preferences. The behavior of the hyperbolic households is compared to the behavior of exponential households. The hyperbolic households borrow much more frequently in the revolving credit market. The hyperbolic households exhibit greater consumption income comovement and experience a greater drop in consumption around retirement. The hyperbolic simulations match observed consumption and balance sheet data much better than the exponential simulations.
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Glautier, Steven, Hedwig Eisenbarth et Anne Macaskill. « In Search of the Preference Reversal Zone ». Experimental Psychology 69, no 1 (janvier 2022) : 46–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/1618-3169/a000542.
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Abstract: A preference reversal is observed when a preference for a larger-later (LL) reward over a smaller-sooner (SS) reward reverses as both rewards come closer in time. Preference reversals are common in everyday life and in the laboratory and are often claimed to support hyperbolic delay-discounting models which, in their simplest form, can model reversals with only one free parameter. However, it is not clear if the temporal location of preference reversals can be predicted a priori. Studies testing model predictions have not found support for them, but they overlooked the well-documented effect of reinforcer magnitude on discounting rate. Therefore, we directly tested hyperbolic and exponential model predictions in a pre-registered study by assessing individual discount rates for two reinforcer magnitudes. We then made individualized predictions about pairs of choices between which preference reversals should occur. With 107 participants, we found (1) little evidence that hyperbolic and exponential models could predict the temporal location of preference reversals, (2) some evidence that hyperbolic models had better predictive performance than exponential models, and (3) in contrast to many previous studies, that exponential models generally produced superior fits to the observed data than hyperbolic models.
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Andrich, David, et Guanzhong Luo. « A Law of Comparative Preference : Distinctions Between Models of Personal Preference and Impersonal Judgment in Pair Comparison Designs ». Applied Psychological Measurement 43, no 3 (2 novembre 2017) : 181–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0146621617738014.
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The pair comparison design for distinguishing between stimuli located on the same natural or hypothesized linear continuum is used both when the response is a personal preference and when it is an impersonal judgment. Appropriate models which complement the different responses have been proposed. However, the models most appropriate for impersonal judgments have also been described as modeling choice, which may imply personal preference. This leads to potential confusion in interpretation of scale estimates of the stimuli, in particular whether they reflect a substantive order on the variable or reflect a characteristic of the sample which is different from the substantive order on the variable. Using Thurstone’s concept of a discriminal response when a person engages with each stimulus, this article explains the overlapping and distinctive relationships between models for pair comparison designs when used for preference and judgment. In doing so, it exploits the properties of the relatively new hyperbolic cosine model which is not only appropriate for modeling personal preferences but has an explicit mathematical relationship with models for impersonal judgments. The hyperbolic cosine model is shown to be a special case of a more general form, referred to in parallel with Thurstone’s Law of Comparative Judgment, as a specific law of comparative preference. Analyses of two real data sets illustrate the differences between the models most appropriate for personal preferences and impersonal judgments in a pair comparison design.
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Halawachy, Huda, et Nawar Alobaidy. « “Let us call it a truthful hyperbole!” A Semantic Perspective on Hyperbole in War Poetry on Iraq (2003) ». International Journal of Language and Literary Studies 2, no 4 (26 décembre 2020) : 151–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.36892/ijlls.v2i4.439.
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As has long been known, though prevalent in everyday discourse across cultures, hyperbole is a neglected figurative language in the linguistic and/or literary sphere. In this talk, we propose a semantic taxonomy of hyperbole in American and British modern war poetry showing how this taxonomy helps readers figure out the poet’s meaning on a deeper level via a variety of hyperboles. The main objectives are to (1) identify the elements of such a trope in the corpora, (2) approach a semantic taxonomy of hyperbolic elements, and (3) come up with the true hidden messages and nature of the trope in accordance with the typology of the semantic field under which the trope is embraced. The corpora consist of two impressive poems – ‘Abu Ghraib’ by Curtis D. Bennett (American), and ‘A Message from Tony Blair to the People of Iraq by David Roberts (British). Findings indicate that both the evaluative and the quantitative dimensions are key characteristics that often coincide and should, therefore, be included in every interpretation of the figurative hyperbolic language in war poetry. A strong preference is also observed for negative effects, auxesis, and absolute savage in the corpora, though the trope sounds positive on the surface.
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Chen, Shou, Richard Fu, Lei Wedge et Ziran Zou. « Non-hyperbolic discounting and dynamic preference reversal ». Theory and Decision 86, no 2 (9 janvier 2019) : 283–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11238-018-09683-3.
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Grammatikopoulou, Ioanna, Janne Artell, Turo Hjerppe et Eija Pouta. « A Mire of Discount Rates : Delaying Conservation Payment Schedules in a Choice Experiment ». Environmental and Resource Economics 77, no 3 (19 septembre 2020) : 615–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10640-020-00511-3.
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Abstract Studies on the public’s implicit discount rate in the willingness to pay for environmental amenities have mostly employed contingent valuation surveys. We investigate respondents’ time preferences using choice experiments with four payment schedules in a split-sample design in the context of mire conservation. We first examine preference and taste heterogeneity among respondents, finding them to a large extent independent of payment schedules. Next we use an endogenous approach to jointly estimate the implicit discount rates and preferences using choice experiments data. We explore exponential and hyperbolic discounting model specifications. We find insensitivity to the length of the payment period and support for hyperbolic discounting. Furthermore, we provide policy relevant valuation results concerning mire conservation.
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Chen, Shou, et Guangbing Li. « Time-Inconsistent Preferences, Retirement, and Increasing Life Expectancy ». Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2019 (10 janvier 2019) : 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/8681471.
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We study consumption behavior, retirement decisions, and endogenous growth within a dynamic equilibrium when individuals have present-biased preferences. Compared to individual with exponential preferences, individual with hyperbolic preferences will choose to retire early for present-biased preferences but to delay retirement for the initial time preference rate. We extend the benchmark equilibrium model to age-dependent survival law and solve numerically the equilibrium effects. It shows that, at the same age, the consumption-capital ratio may have slightly positive effect on increasing life expectancy before retirement but has a significantly positive effect on it after retirement.
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Brahmana, Rayenda, Widyana Verawaty Siregar et Arnawan Hsb. « Too early to execute the strategic scenario planning : hyperbolic discounting and psychological biases of Indonesian SMEs' managers ». Business Strategy Series 14, no 2/3 (8 mars 2013) : 50–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/17515631311325105.
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PurposeUsing the hyperbolic discounting approach in qualitative manner, the purpose of this paper is to explore the linkage of the time preference bias towards the too early execution of strategic focused planning. The paper also investigates the role of psychological bias in explaining the early execution.Design/methodology/approachThis research use qualitative methods to explore the role of hyperbolic discounting in driving the psychological bias towards too early strategic scenario planning, and its rationalization. The authors conducted a face‐to‐face survey going door‐to‐door of the small to medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs). The samples in this research are Indonesian SMEs from the northern part of Sumatra.FindingsThis research found most of the SMEs' managers are time preference biased due to hyperbolic discounting. This hyperbolic discounting awoke manager's psychological bias and resulted in too early decision making. This psychological bias might be due to prospect theory, or the representative effect, or framing bias, or the adaptive bias.Research limitations/implicationsThe sample is only taken from Northern part of Indonesia. To have a robust generalization, the research should be conducted in the whole of Indonesia.Practical implicationsThis paper can be used by practitioners to understand their behaviour towards strategic decision making. Further, practitioners will know if their time preference bias will not generate better result.
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Andreoni, James, et Charles Sprenger. « Risk Preferences Are Not Time Preferences ». American Economic Review 102, no 7 (1 décembre 2012) : 3357–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.7.3357.
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Risk and time are intertwined. The present is known while the future is inherently risky. This is problematic when studying time preferences since uncontrolled risk can generate apparently present-biased behavior. We systematically manipulate risk in an intertemporal choice experiment. Discounted expected utility performs well with risk, but when certainty is added common ratio predictions fail sharply. The data cannot be explained by prospect theory, hyperbolic discounting, or preferences for resolution of uncertainty, but seem consistent with a direct preference for certainty. The data suggest strongly a difference between risk and time preferences. (JEL C91 D81 D91)
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Arló-Costa, Horacio. « Models of preference reversals and personal rules : Do they require maximizing a utility function with a specific structure ? » Behavioral and Brain Sciences 28, no 5 (octobre 2005) : 650–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x05220113.
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One of the reasons for adopting hyperbolic discounting is to explain preference reversals. Another is that this value structure suggests an elegant theory of the will. I examine the capacity of the theory to solve Newcomb's problem. In addition, I compare Ainslie's account with other procedural theories of choice that seem at least equally capable of accommodating reversals of preference.
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Abdul Ghaffar, Abdul Razzaq, Md Gulzarul Hasan, Zubair Ashraf et Mohammad Faisal Khan. « Fuzzy Goal Programming with an Imprecise Intuitionistic Fuzzy Preference Relations ». Symmetry 12, no 9 (19 septembre 2020) : 1548. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/sym12091548.
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Fuzzy goal programming (FGP) is applied to solve fuzzy multi-objective optimization problems. In FGP, the weights are associated with fuzzy goals for the preference among them. However, the hierarchy within the fuzzy goals depends on several uncertain criteria, decided by experts, so the preference relations are not always easy to associate with weight. Therefore, the preference relations are provided by the decision-makers in terms of linguistic relationships, i.e., goal A is slightly or moderately or significantly more important than goal B. Due to the vagueness and ambiguity associated with the linguistic preference relations, intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs) are most efficient and suitable to handle them. Thus, in this paper, a new fuzzy goal programming with intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations (FGP-IFPR) approach is proposed. In the proposed FGP-IFPR model, an achievement function has been developed via the convex combination of the sum of individual grades of fuzzy objectives and amount of the score function of IFPRs among the fuzzy goals. As an extension, we presented the linear and non-linear, namely, exponential and hyperbolic functions for the intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations (IFPRs). A study has been made to compare and analyze the three FGP-IFPR models with intuitionistic fuzzy linear, exponential, and hyperbolic membership and non-membership functions. For solving all three FGP-IFPR models, the solution approach is developed that established the corresponding crisp formulations, and the optimal solution are obtained. The validations of the proposed FGP-IFPR models have been presented with an experimental investigation of a numerical problem and a banking financial statement problem. A newly developed distance measure is applied to compare the efficiency of proposed models. The minimum value of the distance function represents a better and efficient model. Finally, it has been found that for the first illustrative problem considered, the exponential FGP-IFPR model performs best, whereas for the second problem, the hyperbolic FGP-IFPR model performs best and the linear FGP-IFPR model shows worst in both cases.
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Yoon, Haewon. « Impatience and Time Inconsistency in Discounting Models ». Management Science 66, no 12 (décembre 2020) : 5850–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2019.3496.
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Extant theories of intertemporal choice entangle two aspects of time preference: impatience and time inconsistency. Impatient people focus on present consumption without worrying too much about the future; they may spend freely and avoid exercise. An outsider might question their choices, but impatient people do not experience conflict over those choices. By contrast, people who are time-inconsistent intend to save and exercise, but they fail to do so when temptation is proximate. Such individuals are conflicted; their preferences today differ from their preferences tomorrow. I characterize the interaction between impatience and time inconsistency in three leading models of temporal discounting that go beyond the exponential model, which does not predict time inconsistency at any level of impatience. The quasi-hyperbolic model predicts that time inconsistency increases with patience, whereas the hyperbolic model makes the opposite prediction. The constant-sensitivity model predicts that time inconsistency peaks at a moderate level of impatience. The results of an experiment using real monetary consequences with delays of up to one year align most closely with the prediction of the constant-sensitivity model. This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, judgment and decision making.
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Ahmadini, Abdullah Ali H., et Firoz Ahmad. « A novel intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations for multiobjective goal programming problems ». Journal of Intelligent & ; Fuzzy Systems 40, no 3 (2 mars 2021) : 4761–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/jifs-201588.
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This paper investigates novel intuitionistic fuzzy preferences relations to determine the imprecise linguistic terms with fuzzy goals. The proposed intuitionistic fuzzy goal programming (IFGP) considers the degree of vagueness and hesitations simultaneously. Different sorts of membership functions such as linear, exponential, parabolic, and hyperbolic have been introduced to depict the linguistic importance term. The overall satisfaction level is achieved by maximizing the convex combination of each fuzzy goals and the preference relations simultaneously. To verify and validate the proposed IFGP model, a numerical example is presented with the comparative study. Further, it is also applied to a banking financial statement management system problem. The proposed IFGP approach outperforms over others. At last, the conclusion and future research direction are suggested based on the performed study.
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Anderhub, Vital, et Werner Güth. « On the Interaction of Risk and Time Preferences : An Experimental Study ». German Economic Review 2, no 3 (1 août 2001) : 239–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0475.00036.
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Abstract Experimental studies of risk and time preference typically focus on one of the two phenomena. The goal of this paper is to investigate the (possible) correlation between subjects' attitude to risk and their time preference. For this sake we ask 61 subjects to price a simple lottery in three different scenarios. At the first, the lottery premium is paid `now'. At the second, it is paid `later'. At the third, it is paid `even later'. By comparing the certainty equivalents offered by the subjects for the three lotteries, we test how time and risk preferences are interrelated. Since the time interval between `now' and `later' is the same as between `later' and `even later', we also test the hypothesis of hyperbolic discounting. The main result is a statistically significant negative correlation between subjects' degrees of risk aversion and their (implicit) discount factors. Moreover, we show that the negative correlation is independent of the method used to elicit certainty equivalents (willingness to pay versus willingness to accept).
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Antonides, Gerrit, et Sophia R. Wunderink. « Subjective Time Preference and Willingness to Pay for an Energy-Saving Durable Good ». Zeitschrift für Sozialpsychologie 32, no 3 (septembre 2001) : 133–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1024//0044-3514.32.3.133.
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Summary: Different shapes of individual subjective discount functions were compared using real measures of willingness to accept future monetary outcomes in an experiment. The two-parameter hyperbolic discount function described the data better than three alternative one-parameter discount functions. However, the hyperbolic discount functions did not explain the common difference effect better than the classical discount function. Discount functions were also estimated from survey data of Dutch households who reported their willingness to postpone positive and negative amounts. Future positive amounts were discounted more than future negative amounts and smaller amounts were discounted more than larger amounts. Furthermore, younger people discounted more than older people. Finally, discount functions were used in explaining consumers' willingness to pay for an energy-saving durable good. In this case, the two-parameter discount model could not be estimated and the one-parameter models did not differ significantly in explaining the data.
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Stein, Jeffrey S., et Gregory J. Madden. « Choice bundling, unpacked : Observed and predicted effects on intertemporal choice in an additive model of hyperbolic delay discounting ». PLOS ONE 16, no 11 (12 novembre 2021) : e0259830. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259830.
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One method known to increase preference for larger, later rewards (LLRs) over smaller, sooner rewards (SSRs) is choice bundling, in which a single choice produces a series of repeating consequences over time. The present study examined whether effects of choice bundling on preference for LLRs: (1) increase with the number of rewards in the bundle (i.e., bundle size); (2) are independent of differences in reward magnitude between conditions; and (3) accord with predictions of an additive model of hyperbolic delay discounting, in which the value of a bundle of rewards can be expressed as the summed discounted value of all rewards in that bundle. Participants (N = 252) completed a choice task to assess valuation of monetary LLRs at bundle sizes of 1 (control), 3, and 9 rewards per choice (ascending/descending order counterbalanced). To control for the magnitude effect, the total reward amounts were held constant across conditions. Choice bundling significantly increased LLR preference (p < .001), with the largest effect observed at the largest bundle size. The descending bundle-size order produced significantly greater LLR preference than the ascending order (p < .05), although order did not significantly interact with bundle size. Difference scores between observed measures and those predicted by an additive model of hyperbolic discounting were small and not significantly different than zero, but were not equivalent to zero. Future research should investigate the clinical utility of choice bundling for reducing the maladaptive health behavior (e.g., substance use) with which delay discounting is associated.
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Prelec, Drazen. « Decreasing Impatience : A Criterion for Non-stationary Time Preference and “Hyperbolic” Discounting ». Scandinavian Journal of Economics 106, no 3 (octobre 2004) : 511–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0347-0520.2004.00375.x.
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Philipp Steinhorst, Martin, et Enno Bahrs. « Agricultural investors valuing sequences of monetary rewards – results of an experiment ». Agricultural Finance Review 74, no 3 (26 août 2014) : 379–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/afr-06-2013-0026.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to quantify the differences between the classical normative investment theory and alternative investment models of agricultural stakeholders’ choices. Design/methodology/approach – Farmers (n=1,024) and agricultural commodity traders (n=509) were asked to rank investment alternatives. Non-linear regressions were integrated into a Monotonic Analysis of Variance algorithm to analyze the investment rankings. The results reveal coefficients for classical constant discounting, hyperbolic discounting and a preference for a sequence model. Two information criteria indicate the models’ goodness of fit and allow a comparison of the investment rankings of different age groups. Findings – Agribusiness stakeholders have preferences for sequences and could be willing to accept lower internal rates of return for monotone-distributed rewards. Practical implications – The results are useful for state-aided agricultural investment policies and contractual relations within agribusiness. Originality/value – To the author's knowledge, this paper is the first paper to analyze agricultural stakeholders’ preferences for sequences.
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Ma, Zhen Ming, et Ze Shui Xu. « Hyperbolic scales involving appetites-based intuitionistic multiplicative preference relations for group decision making ». Information Sciences 451-452 (juillet 2018) : 310–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2018.04.040.
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Wu, Tian, Zhe Shang, Xin Tian et Shouyang Wang. « How hyperbolic discounting preference affects Chinese consumers’ consumption choice between conventional and electric vehicles ». Energy Policy 97 (octobre 2016) : 400–413. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.07.004.
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Wang, Hao, Defu Lian, Hanghang Tong, Qi Liu, Zhenya Huang et Enhong Chen. « HyperSoRec : Exploiting Hyperbolic User and Item Representations with Multiple Aspects for Social-aware Recommendation ». ACM Transactions on Information Systems 40, no 2 (30 avril 2022) : 1–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3463913.
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Social recommendation has achieved great success in many domains including e-commerce and location-based social networks. Existing methods usually explore the user-item interactions or user-user connections to predict users’ preference behaviors. However, they usually learn both user and item representations in Euclidean space, which has large limitations for exploring the latent hierarchical property in the data. In this article, we study a novel problem of hyperbolic social recommendation, where we aim to learn the compact but strong representations for both users and items. Meanwhile, this work also addresses two critical domain-issues, which are under-explored. First, users often make trade-offs with multiple underlying aspect factors to make decisions during their interactions with items. Second, users generally build connections with others in terms of different aspects, which produces different influences with aspects in social network. To this end, we propose a novel graph neural network (GNN) framework with multiple aspect learning, namely, HyperSoRec. Specifically, we first embed all users, items, and aspects into hyperbolic space with superior representations to ensure their hierarchical properties. Then, we adapt a GNN with novel multi-aspect message-passing-receiving mechanism to capture different influences among users. Next, to characterize the multi-aspect interactions of users on items, we propose an adaptive hyperbolic metric learning method by introducing learnable interactive relations among different aspects. Finally, we utilize the hyperbolic translational distance to measure the plausibility in each user-item pair for recommendation. Experimental results on two public datasets clearly demonstrate that our HyperSoRec not only achieves significant improvement for recommendation performance but also shows better representation ability in hyperbolic space with strong robustness and reliability.
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Zhou, Yongwu, et Zhaozhan Lin. « Impacts of Hyperbolic Discounting on Inventory Replenishment Policy Under Inflation ». Journal of Systems Science and Information 4, no 1 (25 février 2016) : 24–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jssi-2016-0024.
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AbstractConsidering time inconsistency and inter-temporal preference of the decision maker who is facing inter-temporal choices, this paper employs hyperbolic discounting to reflect these characteristics in governing inventory replenishment policy under inflation. The authors take the subjective perception of the decision maker and the objective indicator from the capital market into consideration. The decision maker’s subjective perception includes confidence towards future value of money and anxiety to return the money, while the objective indicator is represented by the compounded discount rate. The results suggest that over the given planning horizon, with more confidence, inventory policy of larger order quantity and smaller order frequency should be adopted; with more anxiety within a threshold, inventory policy of smaller order quantity and larger order frequency should be adopted, and with more anxiety beyond this threshold, inventory policy keeps unchanged; with a larger discount rate, inventory policy of smaller order quantity and larger order frequency should be adopted.
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Chang, Hao, et Xi-min Rong. « Legendre Transform-Dual Solution for a Class of Investment and Consumption Problems with HARA Utility ». Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2014 (2014) : 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/656438.
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This paper provides a Legendre transform method to deal with a class of investment and consumption problems, whose objective function is to maximize the expected discount utility of intermediate consumption and terminal wealth in the finite horizon. Assume that risk preference of the investor is described by hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility function, which includes power utility, exponential utility, and logarithm utility as special cases. The optimal investment and consumption strategy for HARA utility is explicitly obtained by applying dynamic programming principle and Legendre transform technique. Some special cases are also discussed.
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Bernheim, B. Douglas, Jonathan Skinner et Steven Weinberg. « What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth Among U.S. Households ? » American Economic Review 91, no 4 (1 septembre 2001) : 832–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.4.832.
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Even among households with similar socioeconomic characteristics, saving and wealth vary considerably. Life-cycle models attribute this variation to differences in time preference rates, risk tolerance, exposure to uncertainty, relative tastes for work and leisure at advanced ages, and income replacement rates. These factors have testable implications concerning the relation between accumulated wealth and the shape of the consumption profile. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the Consumer Expenditure Survey, we find little support for these implications. The data are instead consistent with “rule of thumb,” “mental accounting,” or hyperbolic discounting theories of wealth accumulation. (JEL D1, D91, E21)
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Hampton, Steve, et Matthew Zafonte. « DISCOUNTING, RISK, AND UNCERTAINTY IN NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS ». International Oil Spill Conference Proceedings 2008, no 1 (1 mai 2008) : 1157–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.7901/2169-3358-2008-1-1157.
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ABSTRACT Restoration-based scaling methods, such as Habitat or Resource Equivalency Analysis (HEA or REA), quantify lost resource services from an injury and gained resource services from a restoration project into the future. In many cases, the injury and/or the restoration project are projected to last several decades or even into perpetuity. Following economic theory and federal guidelines, resources provided (or lost) in the future are discounted at some specified rate, usually 3%. This paper reviews the role and significance of discounting in restoration scaling. We review time preference, inter generational concerns, risk, and uncertainty as rationales for discounting, and examine various discounting formulations (e.g. constant and hyperbolic). We present several quantitative examples in a restoration-scaling context regarding different discounting approaches. We conclude that, while the specification of the discount rate can have a large effect on restoration scaling calculations with long time horizons, incorporation of risk and uncertainty of restoration project benefits over time can overwhelm the effect of alternative specifications of time preference.
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Heidhues, Paul, et Philipp Strack. « Identifying Present Bias from the Timing of Choices ». American Economic Review 111, no 8 (1 août 2021) : 2594–622. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191258.
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A (partially naïve) quasi-hyperbolic discounter repeatedly chooses whether to complete a task. Her net benefits of task completion are drawn independently between periods from a time-invariant distribution. We show that the probability of completing the task conditional on not having done so earlier increases towards the deadline. Conversely, we establish nonidentifiability by proving that for any time-preference parameters and any dataset with such (weakly increasing) task-completion probabilities, there exists a stationary payoff distribution that rationalizes the agent’s behavior if she is either sophisticated or fully naïve. Additionally, we provide sharp partial identification for the case of observable continuation values. (JEL C14, D11, D15, D90, D91)
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Kyncl, Martin, et Jaroslav Pelant. « Analysis of the Boundary Problem with the Preference of Mass Flow ». Applied Mechanics and Materials 821 (janvier 2016) : 70–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.821.70.
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We work with the numerical solution of the turbulent compressible gas flow, and we focus on the numerical solution of these equations, and on the boundary conditions, particularly on the outlet boundary condition with the preference of given mass flow. Usually, the boundary problem is being linearized, or roughly approximated. The inaccuracies implied by these simplifications may be small, but it has a huge impact on the solution in the whole studied area, especially for the non-stationary flow. The boundary condition with the preference of mass flow is sometimes being implemented with the use of some iterative process, guessing the correct values (for the pressure, density, velocity) in order to match the given mass flow through the boundary. In our approach we try to be as exact as possible, using our own original procedures. We follow the exact solution of the initial-value problem for the system of hyperbolic partial differential equations. This complicated problem is modified at the close vicinity of boundary, where the conservation laws are supplied with the additional boundary conditions. We complement the boundary problem suitably, and we show the analysis of the resulting uniquely-solvable modified Riemann problem.The resulting algorithm was coded and used within our own developed code for the solution of the compressible gas flow (the Euler, NS, and RANS equations). The examples show good behaviour of the analyzed boundary condition.
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Poirot, Jordan, Paolo De Luna et Gregor Rainer. « Neural coding of image structure and contrast polarity of Cartesian, hyperbolic, and polar gratings in the primary and secondary visual cortex of the tree shrew ». Journal of Neurophysiology 115, no 4 (1 avril 2016) : 2000–2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1152/jn.01000.2015.
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We comprehensively characterize spiking and visual evoked potential (VEP) activity in tree shrew V1 and V2 using Cartesian, hyperbolic, and polar gratings. Neural selectivity to structure of Cartesian gratings was higher than other grating classes in both visual areas. From V1 to V2, structure selectivity of spiking activity increased, whereas corresponding VEP values tended to decrease, suggesting that single-neuron coding of Cartesian grating attributes improved while the cortical columnar organization of these neurons became less precise from V1 to V2. We observed that neurons in V2 generally exhibited similar selectivity for polar and Cartesian gratings, suggesting that structure of polar-like stimuli might be encoded as early as in V2. This hypothesis is supported by the preference shift from V1 to V2 toward polar gratings of higher spatial frequency, consistent with the notion that V2 neurons encode visual scene borders and contours. Neural sensitivity to modulations of polarity of hyperbolic gratings was highest among all grating classes and closely related to the visual receptive field (RF) organization of ON- and OFF-dominated subregions. We show that spatial RF reconstructions depend strongly on grating class, suggesting that intracortical contributions to RF structure are strongest for Cartesian and polar gratings. Hyperbolic gratings tend to recruit least cortical elaboration such that the RF maps are similar to those generated by sparse noise, which most closely approximate feedforward inputs. Our findings complement previous literature in primates, rodents, and carnivores and highlight novel aspects of shape representation and coding occurring in mammalian early visual cortex.
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Kable, Joseph W., et Paul W. Glimcher. « An “As Soon As Possible” Effect in Human Intertemporal Decision Making : Behavioral Evidence and Neural Mechanisms ». Journal of Neurophysiology 103, no 5 (mai 2010) : 2513–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1152/jn.00177.2009.
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Many decisions involve a trade-off between the quality of an outcome and the time at which that outcome is received. In psychology and behavioral economics, the most widely studied models hypothesize that the values of future gains decline as a roughly hyperbolic function of delay from the present. Recently, it has been proposed that this hyperbolic-like decline in value arises from the interaction of two separate neural systems: one specialized to value immediate rewards and the other specialized to value delayed rewards. Here we report behavioral and functional magnetic resonance imaging results that are inconsistent with both the standard behavioral models of discounting and the hypothesis that separate neural systems value immediate and delayed rewards. Behaviorally, we find that human subjects do not necessarily make the impulsive preference reversals predicted by hyperbolic-like discounting. We also find that blood oxygenation level dependent activity in ventral striatum, medial prefrontal, and posterior cingulate cortex does not track whether an immediate reward was present, as proposed by the separate neural systems hypothesis. Activity in these regions was correlated with the subjective value of both immediate and delayed rewards. Rather than encoding only the relative value of one reward compared with another, these values are represented on a more absolute scale. These data support an alternative behavioral–neural model (which we call “ASAP”), in which subjective value declines hyperbolically relative to the soonest currently available reward and a small number of valuation areas serve as a final common pathway through which these subjective values guide choice.
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Wang, Chunfeng, Hao Chang et Zhenming Fang. « Optimal Consumption and Portfolio Decision with Heston’s SV Model Under HARA Utility Criterion ». Journal of Systems Science and Information 5, no 1 (8 juin 2017) : 21–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.21078/jssi-2017-021-13.
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Abstract This paper studies the optimal consumption-investment strategy with Heston’s stochastic volatility (SV) model under hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility criterion. The financial market is composed of a risk-less asset and a risky asset, whose price process is supposed to be driven by Heston’s SV model. The risky preference of the individual is assumed to satisfy HARA utility, which recovers power utility, exponential utility and logarithm utility as special cases. HARA utility is of general framework in the utility theory and is seldom studied in the existing literatures. Legendre transform-dual technique along with stochastic dynamic programming principle is presented to deal with our problem and the closed-form solution to the optimal consumption-investment strategy is successfully obtained. Finally, some special cases are derived in detail.
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Vieira, Pedro Gabrielle, João Paulo Machado de Sousa et Jerome Baron. « Contrast response functions in the visual wulst of the alert burrowing owl : a single-unit study ». Journal of Neurophysiology 116, no 4 (1 octobre 2016) : 1765–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1152/jn.00505.2015.
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The neuronal representation of luminance contrast has not been thoroughly studied in birds. Here we present a detailed quantitative analysis of the contrast response of 120 individual neurons recorded from the visual wulst of awake burrowing owls ( Athene cunicularia). Stimuli were sine-wave gratings presented within the cell classical receptive field and optimized in terms of eye preference, direction of drift, and spatiotemporal frequency. As contrast intensity was increased from zero to near 100%, most cells exhibited a monotonic response profile with a compressive, at times saturating, nonlinearity at higher contrasts. However, contrast response functions were found to have a highly variable shape across cells. With the view to capture a systematic trend in the data, we assessed the performance of four plausible models (linear, power, logarithmic, and hyperbolic ratio) using classical goodness-of-fit measures and more rigorous statistical tools for multimodel inferences based on the Akaike information criterion. From this analysis, we conclude that a high degree of model uncertainty is present in our data, meaning that no single descriptor is able on its own to capture the heterogeneous nature of single-unit contrast responses in the wulst. We further show that the generalizability of the hyperbolic ratio model established, for example, in the primary visual cortex of cats and monkeys is not tenable in the owl wulst mainly because most neurons in this area have a much wider dynamic range that starts at low contrast. The challenge for future research will be to understand the functional implications of these findings.
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Patiño, David, et Francisco Gómez-García. « Do Quasi-Hyperbolic Preferences Explain Academic Procrastination ? An Empirical Evaluation ». Revista Hacienda Pública Española 230, no 3 (septembre 2019) : 95–124. http://dx.doi.org/10.7866/hpe-rpe.19.3.4.
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Wallace, Nicholas. « Behavioral Economics and Obesity : An Analysis of Fitness-Based Tax Incentives ». Policy Perspectives 23 (2 mai 2016) : 76. http://dx.doi.org/10.4079/pp.v23i0.16247.
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B oth federal and state governments have experimented with policy proposals aimed at decreasing obesity rates, mostly through the regulation of unhealthy foods. There has been little research, however, on the impact of fitness-based policy initiatives on obesity rates. To address these issues, this paper first outlines previous policies aimed at preventing obesity and provides justification in favor of government intervention. In particular, this paper argues that hyperbolic discounting, a specific type of time-inconsistent preference where individuals make decisions that favor instant gratification rather than long-term benefits, provides economic justification for government intervention to combat obesity. It then uses Canada as a case study to demonstrate the effect that fitness-based tax credits have on physical activity, obesity, and long-term healthcare costs, and highlights a current pending piece of legislation in the 114th US Congress that would bring a similar program to the United States. More research is needed to confirm the effectiveness of fitness tax incentives on increasing physical activity among currently sedentary individuals. Nonetheless, this paper concludes by suggesting that fitness-based tax incentives are more politically viable than food regulations.
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Schüller, Canan Beate, Ben Jonathan Wagner, Thomas Schüller, Juan Carlos Baldermann, Daniel Huys, Julia Kerner auch Koerner, Eva Niessen et al. « Temporal discounting in adolescents and adults with Tourette syndrome ». PLOS ONE 16, no 6 (18 juin 2021) : e0253620. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253620.
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Tourette syndrome is a neurodevelopmental disorder associated with hyperactivity in dopaminergic networks. Dopaminergic hyperactivity in the basal ganglia has previously been linked to increased sensitivity to positive reinforcement and increases in choice impulsivity. In this study, we examine whether this extends to changes in temporal discounting, where impulsivity is operationalized as an increased preference for smaller-but-sooner over larger-but-later rewards. We assessed intertemporal choice in two studies including nineteen adolescents (age: mean[sd] = 14.21[±2.37], 13 male subjects) and twenty-five adult patients (age: mean[sd] = 29.88 [±9.03]; 19 male subjects) with Tourette syndrome and healthy age- and education matched controls. Computational modeling using exponential and hyperbolic discounting models via hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation revealed reduced temporal discounting in adolescent patients, and no evidence for differences in adult patients. Results are discussed with respect to neural models of temporal discounting, dopaminergic alterations in Tourette syndrome and the developmental trajectory of temporal discounting. Specifically, adolescents might show attenuated discounting due to improved inhibitory functions that also affect choice impulsivity and/or the developmental trajectory of executive control functions. Future studies would benefit from a longitudinal approach to further elucidate the developmental trajectory of these effects.
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Kabašinskas, Audrius, Kristina Šutienė, Miloš Kopa, Kęstutis Lukšys et Kazimieras Bagdonas. « Dominance-Based Decision Rules for Pension Fund Selection under Different Distributional Assumptions ». Mathematics 8, no 5 (4 mai 2020) : 719. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math8050719.
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The pension landscape is changing due to the market situation, and technological change has enabled financial innovations. Pension savers usually seek financial advice to make a personalised decision in selecting the right pension fund for them. As such, decision rules based on the assumed risk profile of the decision maker could be generated by making use of stochastic dominance (SD). In the paper, the second-pillar pension funds operating in Lithuania and Slovakia are analysed according to SD rules. The importance of the distributional assumption is explored while comparing the results of empirical, student-t, Hyperbolic and Normal Inverse Gaussian distributions to generate SD-based rules that could be integrated into an advisory solution. Moreover, due to the differences in SD results under different distributional assumptions, a new SD ratio is proposed that condenses the dominance-based relations for all considered dominance orders and probability distributions. The empirical results indicate that this new SD ratio efficiently characterises not only the preference of each fund individually but also of a group of funds with the same attributes, thus enabling multi-risk and multi-country comparisons.
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Cann, Tristan J. B., Iain S. Weaver et Hywel T. P. Williams. « Is it correct to project and detect ? How weighting unipartite projections influences community detection ». Network Science 8, S1 (17 avril 2020) : S145—S163. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/nws.2020.11.
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AbstractBipartite networks represent pairwise relationships between nodes belonging to two distinct classes. While established methods exist for analyzing unipartite networks, those for bipartite network analysis are somewhat obscure and relatively less developed. Community detection in such instances is frequently approached by first projecting the network onto a unipartite network, a method where edges between node classes are encoded as edges within one class. Here we test seven different projection schemes by assessing the performance of community detection on both: (i) a real-world dataset from social media and (ii) an ensemble of artificial networks with prescribed community structure. A number of performance and accuracy issues become apparent from the experimental findings, especially in the case of long-tailed degree distributions. Of the methods tested, the “hyperbolic” projection scheme alleviates most of these difficulties and is thus the most robust scheme of those tested. We conclude that any interpretation of community detection algorithm performance on projected networks must be done with care as certain network configurations require strong community preference for the bipartite structure to be reflected in the unipartite communities. Our results have implications for the analysis of detected community structure in projected unipartite networks.
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Rosillon, Dominique. « Food preference and relative influence of temperature and food quality on life history characteristics of a grazing mayfly, Ephemerella ignita (Poda) ». Canadian Journal of Zoology 66, no 6 (1 juin 1988) : 1474–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/z88-214.
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In choice experiments, starved larvae of Ephemerella ignita (Poda) moved preferentially to compartments with a diatom-rich diet rather than to those with a detritus diet. Growth rate, mortality rate, larval developmental time, adult size, and fecundity of E. ignita were assessed in response to rearing on two diets (diatoms and detritus) at four constant temperatures (4.5 – 18 °C). On each diet, growth rate (range 0.30 – 6.2% length/d) increased with increasing temperature according to a power law (Y = axb). At any temperature, growth rate was significantly higher on the diatom diet than on the detritus diet. Mortality rate (range 0.2 – 6.5%/d) increased with increasing temperature and was higher on the detritus diet than on the diatom diet. Developmental time varied significantly with temperature for animals fed diatoms according to a hyperbolic relationship. The thermal requirement for completing larval growth from hatching to emergence on a diatom diet was estimated at about 950 degree-days above a threshold of 3.5 °C (range 9.5 – 18 °C). Very few larvae reared on detritus achieved the adult stage and their developmental time seemed longer. Subimago weight did not vary significantly with temperature, but fecundity (range 435 – 1320 eggs per female) was significantly lower at 9.5 °C than at 14.5 and 18 °C in larvae fed diatoms. Fecundity of females from larvae fed detritus was very low (range 5 – 150 eggs). The reproductive effort (number of eggs per milligram of subimago weight; range 66 – 125) followed a clear linear increasing relationship with temperature (9.5 to 18 °C) for animals reared on diatoms. Poor food quality could probably restrict distribution of E. ignita by reducing fecundity. In conclusion, these results show that the thermal equilibrium hypothesis must be extended to other environmental factors. They also support the hypothesis of a bivoltine cycle of E. ignita under favorable thermic and food conditions.
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Sedlinská, Terezie, Lena Brückner, Magdalena Hübner, Colin Rentsch, Dorothea Falke, Christiane Mühle, Jasmina Suc et al. « 40 Temporal discounting and male depression ». Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery & ; Psychiatry 93, no 12 (14 novembre 2022) : e3.35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jnnp-2022-bnpa.40.
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Male depression is an attempt to extend the definition of depression to address an atypical cluster of symptoms that have been associated with suicide completion in community-dwelling populations. These include externalizing behaviour, avoidance, emotional suppression, irritability, substance misuse, and risk-seeking behaviour. Temporal discounting is a measure of economic impulsivity and a possible transdiagnostic neurocognitive domain that plays an essential role in everyday decision-making. Previous studies have found mixed results relating economic impulsivity to depression. We hypothesized that this divergence could be attributed to the heterogeneity of depression and contrasted temporal discounting between general ICD-10 depression and the specific, and possibly more impulsive male depression.We administered a temporal discounting task to 170 in-ward psychiatric patients and 176 healthy controls (HC). All patients fulfilled the ICD-10 criteria for moderate to severe depression. The patients were separated into a male-depressed group (MD) and a general major depression group (MDD) using median split of the Male Depression Risk Score (MDRS-22). HC had subthreshold scores for depression and had no neuropsychiatric history.We used the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to compare 3 models of delay discounting. All models were based on the hyperbolic discounting model Q(R,D,k)=R/(1+k*D) where R =reward, k=discounting rate, and D=delay, comparing the subjective value of the immediate option Qi=Q(Ri,0,k) against the delayed option Qd=Q(Rd,D,k). Models differed in their treatment of noise in generating the probability piof making the impulsive choice of the immediate option (withσ(z) = 1/(1 + exp(−z))):(1) preference-temperature model (k, β): pi=σ(β(Qi– Qd))(2) preference-uncertainty model (μ, σ): draw log ks~N(μ, σ):if Qi> Q(Rd,D, ks), pi=1; otherwise pi=0(3) trembling-hand model (k, β, lapse):λ = (3/56)* σ(lapse)+1e-4 pi=(1–2λ(σ(β(Qi– Qd))+λThe preference-temperature model yielded the best fit (BIC(1)=3.817, BIC(2)=3.893, BIC(3)=7.001). There was no significant group difference in the model-specific parameters: discount ratekand inverse temperatureβ. There was a correlation between choosing the immediate reward and MDRS-22 (r=0.234, p<0.001), as well as with Beck’s Depression Inventory (BDI-II) (r=0.191, p<0.001), but no significant group differences (ANOVA: F=0.454, p=0.501).We could not find any model-based differences between the three groups. However, model- agnostic results suggested that male depressiveness, but also ICD-10 depressiveness, were associated with more impulsive choices. A noteworthy limitation was a strong correlation between BDI-II and MDRS-22 in our sample.
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Pennesi, Daniele. « Uncertain discount and hyperbolic preferences ». Theory and Decision 83, no 3 (16 mai 2017) : 315–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11238-017-9603-2.
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Molchanova, E. I., E. N. Korzhova, V. V. Fedorov et A. D. Portnyagin. « Assessment of the possibility of modeling nonlinear multivariable calibration function using artificial neural networks ». Industrial laboratory. Diagnostics of materials 87, no 10 (18 octobre 2021) : 12–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.26896/1028-6861-2021-87-10-12-17.
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The use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is considered justified when studying the problems that do not have a generally accepted solution algorithm. One of such problems in X-ray fluorescence analysis (XRF) is a control of the metal content in atmospheric air and air of the working area. Determination of the calibration characteristics is raveled by the lack of standard samples of the composition of aerosols collected on the filter. To solve this problem, synthetic calibration samples (CS) were manufactured as a thin organic film containing a powder material of the known chemical composition. The weight of the film samples varied within a range of 40 – 155 mg to simulate different aerosol loading of the filters and the content of components in them changed 20 – 200 times which corresponds to the samples of real aerosols. The possibility of modeling a nonlinear calibration multivariable function using artificial neural networks was evaluated in analysis of 38 film calibration samples (from 40 to 100 mg). The structure of the neural network, activation functions, learning algorithms have been investigated. Modeling was performed using an academic version of the BaseGroup Deductor analytical platform. It is shown that implementation of the back propagation of errors leads to much higher values of the error of analysis compared to the error of the regression calibration functions, whereas the Resilient Propagation algorithm provides the smallest values of the error of vanadium determination (Sr) in the calibration samples of aerosols. The range of low content of the elements in the training set is determined with a greater error compared to high content range, and therefore, the sigmoid activation function leads to unsatisfactory accuracy of the analysis results, and preference should be given to hyperbolic tangent (tanh).
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Zauberman, Gal, B. Kyu Kim, Selin A. Malkoc et James R. Bettman. « Discounting Time and Time Discounting : Subjective Time Perception and Intertemporal Preferences ». Journal of Marketing Research 46, no 4 (août 2009) : 543–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1509/jmkr.46.4.543.
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Consumers often make decisions about outcomes and events that occur over time. This research examines consumers' sensitivity to the prospective duration relevant to their decisions and the implications of such sensitivity for intertemporal trade-offs, especially the degree of present bias (i.e., hyperbolic discounting). The authors show that participants' subjective perceptions of prospective duration are not sufficiently sensitive to changes in objective duration and are nonlinear and concave in objective time, consistent with psychophysical principles. More important, this lack of sensitivity can explain hyperbolic discounting. The results replicate standard hyperbolic discounting effects with respect to objective time but show a relatively constant rate of discounting with respect to subjective time perceptions. The results are replicated between subjects (Experiment 1) and within subjects (Experiments 2), with multiple time horizons and multiple descriptors, and with different measurement orders. Furthermore, the authors show that when duration is primed, subjective time perception is altered (Experiment 4) and hyperbolic discounting is reduced (Experiment 3).
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Holmes, Craig. « Quasi-hyperbolic preferences and retirement : A comment ». Journal of Public Economics 94, no 1-2 (février 2010) : 129–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2009.10.008.
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Kosse, Fabian, et Friedhelm Pfeiffer. « Quasi-hyperbolic time preferences and their intergenerational transmission ». Applied Economics Letters 20, no 10 (juillet 2013) : 983–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2013.767974.
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Loughran, Thomas A., Ray Paternoster et Douglas Weiss. « Hyperbolic Time Discounting, Offender Time Preferences and Deterrence ». Journal of Quantitative Criminology 28, no 4 (20 janvier 2012) : 607–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10940-011-9163-5.
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Ventre, Viviana, et Roberta Martino. « Quantification of Aversion to Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice through Subjective Perception of Time ». Mathematics 10, no 22 (17 novembre 2022) : 4315. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math10224315.
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Intertemporal choices are those decisions structured over several periods in which the effects only manifest themselves with the passage of time. The main mathematical reference for studying the behavior of individuals with respect to this type of decision is the Discounted Utility Model which hypothesizes completely rational individuals. The empirical evidence that deviates from normative expectations has motivated the formulation of alternative models with the aim of better describing the behavior of individuals. The present paper investigates the characteristics behind hyperbolic discounting starting from the phenomenon of decision inconsistency, i.e., when individuals’ preferences vary over time. The mechanisms of inconsistency will be explored through the physical concept of relative time, proving the importance of uncertainty aversion in the hyperbolic trend of the discount function. The analysis of the mathematical characteristics of hyperbolic discounting and the relationship between decision inconsistency and subjective perception of time defines the maximum distance between rational and non-rational preferences. An experimental part empirically proves the relationship between uncertainty aversion and time inconsistency. The present paper contributes to the literature by defining a new characteristic of hyperbolic discounting and quantifying the impact of the subjective perception of time in the decision-making process.
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LOVE, DAVID, et GREGORY PHELAN. « Hyperbolic discounting and life-cycle portfolio choice ». Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 14, no 4 (octobre 2015) : 492–524. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1474747215000220.
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AbstractThis paper studies how hyperbolic discounting affects stock market participation, asset allocation, and saving decisions over the life cycle in an economy with Epstein–Zin preferences. Hyperbolic discounting affects saving and portfolio decisions through at least two channels: (1) it lowers desired saving, which decreases financial wealth relative to future earnings; and (2) it lowers the incentive to pay a fixed cost to enter the stock market. We find that hyperbolic discounters accumulate less wealth relative to their geometric counterparts and that they participate in the stock market at a later age. Because they have lower levels of financial wealth relative to future earnings, hyperbolic discounters who do participate in the stock market tend to hold a higher share of equities, particularly in the retirement years. We find that increasing the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, holding risk aversion constant, greatly magnifies the impact of hyperbolic discounting on all of the model's decision rules and simulated levels of participation, allocation, and wealth. Finally, we introduce endogenous financial knowledge accumulation and find that hyperbolic discounting leads to lower financial literacy and inefficient stock market investment.
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Hutchison, Bruce L. « The Transverse Plane Motions of Ships ». Marine Technology and SNAME News 28, no 02 (1 mars 1991) : 55–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.5957/mt1.1991.28.2.55.
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A detailed exposition of the kinematics of the transverse plane motions of ships is provided, with particular attention to the important process of total transverse acceleration in vessel coordinates. The loci of sway, sway velocity and sway acceleration are shown to follow hyperbolic distributions with respect to elevation in both regular and irregular waves. In regular waves the transverse acceleration in earth-fixed and vessel-fixed coordinates are shown to be congruent with a vertical shift in elevation of g/ω2 = λ/(2π). Expressions are given for the elevations minimizing transverse plane processes in regular and irregular waves. In long waves the elevation minimizing total transverse acceleration in vessel coordinates is shown to be g/ωn2 = g[Tn/ /(2π)]2 below the waterline. This is the roll center, which should be used in the traditional analysis of foundation loads. Its location, far below the keel for most vessels, is surprising. The elevation (OP) of the roll axis, which must be used when solving the one-degree-of-freedom equation for roll, is given and is shown to require hydrodynamic coefficients for sway as well as roll. In general, OP does not correspond to an elevation that minimizes any of the transverse plane processes. The effect of hull form, transverse stability and natural roll period on transverse plane motions are examined in an attempt to resolve the dichotomy of views between those who favor ships with low GMT and long natural roll periods and those who favor high GMT with short natural roll periods. It is demonstrated that large values of the beam-to-draft ratio (6/7) with low natural roll periods are advantageous at modest elevations above the waterline. This explains the favorable offshore experience in vessels meeting this description, such as tugs, supply vessels and fishing vessels. At higher elevations long natural periods are shown to present a clear advantage, which supports the preference for low GMT for large passenger vessels, containerships and ships with deck-loads of logs. The trends identified would seem to support the conjecture that, with regard to natural roll period, there is a "forbidden middle" that should be avoided in design.
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Montiel Olea, José Luis, et Tomasz Strzalecki. « Axiomatization and Measurement of Quasi-Hyperbolic Discounting * ». Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, no 3 (12 mai 2014) : 1449–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qju017.
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Abstract This article provides an axiomatic characterization of quasi-hyperbolic discounting and a more general class of semi-hyperbolic preferences. We impose consistency restrictions directly on the intertemporal trade-offs by relying on what we call “annuity compensations.” Our axiomatization leads naturally to an experimental design that disentangles discounting from the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. In a pilot experiment we use the partial identification approach to estimate bounds for the distributions of discount factors in the subject pool. Consistent with previous studies, we find evidence for both present and future bias.
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Fernández, Julio A. « The formation and dynamical survival of the comet cloud ». International Astronomical Union Colloquium 83 (1985) : 45–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0252921100083792.
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AbstractThe theory of a huge reservoir of comets (the “comet cloud”) extending to almost interstellar distances is analyzed, paying special attention to its dynamical stability, formation process and orbital properties of the incoming cloud comets. The perturbing influence of passing stars and giant molecular clouds is considered. Giant molecular clouds may be an important perturbing element of the comet cloud, although they do not seem to change drastically former studies including only stellar perturbations. The more tightly bound inner portions of the comet cloud, say within 104 AU, would have withstood the disrupting forces over the age of the solar system. The theory of a primordial comet origin in the outer planetary region close to Neptune’s orbit is specially analyzed. A primordial comet origin is consistent with the cosmogonic view that a large amount of residual material was ejected during the last stage in the formation of the Jovian planets. The smooth diffusion in the energy space of bodies scattered by Neptune guarantees that most of them will fall in the narrow range of energies close to zero (near-parabolic orbits) where passing stars and GMCs can act effectively on them. The long time scales of ~109 yr required for bodies scattered by Neptune to reach near-parabolic orbits would indicate that the buildup of the comet cloud was an event that took place long after the planets formed. Depending on the field of perturbing galactic objects, it is possible to conceive that most scattered comets were stored in rather tightly bound orbits (a ~l04 AU), favoring the concept of their dynamical survival over several billion yr. Alternative theories of comet cloud formation, e.g. in-situ origin or interstellar capture, are also discussed. The main difficulty of the in-situ theory is to explain how comets could accumulate at large heliocentric distances where the density of the nebular material was presumably very low. The interstellar capture theory also meets severe dynamical objections as, for instance, the lack of observed comets with original strongly hyperbolic orbits and the extremely low probability of capture under most plausible conditions. Since our knowledge of the structure of giant molecular clouds and their frequency of encounters with the solar system is still very uncertain, the concept of capture of transient comet clouds during such encounters can be advanced very little beyond the speculative stage. Some other dynamical properties of relevance to theories of origin and structure of the comet cloud are also reviewed. We mention, for instance, the distribution of perihelion points on the celestial sphere. There seems to be here a well established deviation from randomness, although the debate on whether or not there is a preference of the perihelion clustering for the vicinity of the apex of the solar motion is still unsettled. The alleged correlation with the solar apex may be biased by the preference of comet discoveries in the northern hemisphere. Deviations from randomness might be caused by very close stellar passages in the recent past. The excess of retrograde orbits among the observed “new” and young comets - mainly those with q ≳ 2 AU - is another well known dynamical feature. Such an excess may probably be accounted for by the combined action of planetary and stellar perturbations. Because of the decreasing action of planetary perturbations with increasing heliocentric distances, a significant increase in the rate of passages of long-period comets is predicted for the outer planetary region.