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1
Sujono, Joko. « Hydrological Analysis of the Situ Gintung Dam Failure ». Journal of Disaster Research 7, no 5 (1 octobre 2012) : 590–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2012.p0590.
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Early on the morning ofMarch 27, 2009, the Situ Gintung dam, located near Jakarta, Indonesia, and with an catchment area of 3.1 km2, failed and flooded the area below it. This disaster has awakened most of the Indonesian people, especially those who are concerned about hydraulic structures, natural disasters and sustainable water resources management. During the disaster, about 100 people died and a number of people went missing. There are hundreds of dams like the Situ Gintung dam and other big dams have been built in Indonesia. Most of these dams pose a high potential hazard to life and property if a failure or levee breach occurs. Dam failures may occur at different locations such as spillway, embankments and foundations. The failure may occur as a result of a number of problems such as overtopping, surface erosion, and piping. Dam failures due to spillway problems may occur, for instance, as a result of inadequate spillway capacity (overtopping) or spillway loss by erosion (surface erosion). In this study, the Situ Gintung dam failure has been analyzed based on hydrology analysis. Results show that heavy monsoon rainfall was not the main cause of the situ Gintung dam failure. The daily rainfall on March 26, 2009, was 113 mm that equal to a 10 year return period. Reservoir routing shows that there was no overtopping during March 27, 2009, flood, the maximum water depth on the spillway is 0.63 m. Assuming that maintenance was done well, the spillway was still safe under a 100 year return period with the maximum water level is +98.95 m. It means that the embankment was still safe with 1.05 m freeboard. Due to high water flow velocity, however, surface erosion may occur at the end of a chute spillway that consists of silt, clay and sand. Continuous scoring/erosion happened throughout the spill over the spillway, which started at around 06:00 pm and lasted until 03.00 am, resulting in a big pond at the chute spillways and surrounding areas. This phenomenon adversely affected the instability of the spillway structure. As a result, the spillway failure occurring resulted high flow discharge that reached more than 425 m3/s.
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Li, Qi, Yimin Wang et Kunbiao Zhang. « Failure Mechanism of Weak Rock Slopes considering Hydrological Conditions ». KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering 26, no 2 (28 octobre 2021) : 685–702. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12205-021-1198-z.
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Heinke, Jens, Christoph Müller, Mats Lannerstad, Dieter Gerten et Wolfgang Lucht. « Freshwater resources under success and failure of the Paris climate agreement ». Earth System Dynamics 10, no 2 (2 avril 2019) : 205–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-205-2019.
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Abstract. Population growth will in many regions increase the pressure on water resources and likely increase the number of people affected by water scarcity. In parallel, global warming causes hydrological changes which will affect freshwater supply for human use in many regions. This study estimates the exposure of future population to severe hydrological changes relevant from a freshwater resource perspective at different levels of global mean temperature rise above pre-industrial level (ΔTglob). The analysis is complemented by an assessment of water scarcity that would occur without additional climate change due to population change alone; this is done to identify the population groups that are faced with particularly high adaptation challenges. The results are analysed in the context of success and failure of implementing the Paris Agreement to evaluate how climate mitigation can reduce the future number of people exposed to severe hydrological change. The results show that without climate mitigation efforts, in the year 2100 about 4.9 billion people in the SSP2 population scenario would more likely than not be exposed to severe hydrological change, and about 2.1 billion of them would be faced with particularly high adaptation challenges due to already prevailing water scarcity. Limiting warming to 2 ∘C by a successful implementation of the Paris Agreement would strongly reduce these numbers to 615 million and 290 million, respectively. At the regional scale, substantial water-related risks remain at 2 ∘C, with more than 12 % of the population exposed to severe hydrological change and high adaptation challenges in Latin America and the Middle East and north Africa region. Constraining ΔTglob to 1.5 ∘C would limit this share to about 5 % in these regions.
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Nakaya, Junko, Kazunari Sako, Shunsuke Mitsutani et Ryoichi Fukagawa. « Hydrological Environment in Subsurface Steep Slope - Groundwater Flow Passageway on Slope Behind Kiyomizudera - ». Journal of Disaster Research 6, no 1 (1 février 2011) : 80–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2011.p0080.
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The hydrological environment must be understood before water flow can be adequately controlled to prevent slope failure without impacting unduly on the hydrological mountain slope environment. We conducted field studies to determine current sites and measurement of ground temperature 1 meter deep to clarify groundwater flow passageways on the slope behind the cultural heritage temple Kiyomizudera in Kyoto. Results showed anomalous temperature 1 meter deep bands on the slope and several springs that are extensions of these bands. Several of these bands coincide with terrain deformations such as gullies and slope failure scars indicating the probability of relationships between groundwater flow and topological deformation.
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Chinkulkijniwat, Avirut, Somjai Yubonchit, Suksun Horpibulsuk, Chatchai Jothityangkoon, Cholticha Jeeptaku et Arul Arulrajah. « Hydrological responses and stability analysis of shallow slopes with cohesionless soil subjected to continuous rainfall ». Canadian Geotechnical Journal 53, no 12 (décembre 2016) : 2001–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cgj-2016-0143.
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Understanding the hydrological and physical responses of shallow slopes subject to rainfall events is vital for the efficiency of a warning system setup. In this research, a series of experiments were undertaken to evaluate the hydrological responses of shallow slopes of varying steepness and when subjected to varying intensities, periods, and inter-storm periods of rainfall. An analysis of infinite slopes was also undertaken to develop a fundamental understanding of rainfall-induced shallow slope failure characteristics. The hydrological and physical responses were characterized in the infiltration and saturation phases. During the infiltration phase, the maximum magnitude of water content was found behind the wetting front, termed as the water content behind the wetting front (θwb). For a certain soil type, the magnitude of θwb was found to be dependent on the magnitude of rainfall intensity, regardless of the slope gradient and initial water content. Based on the relative depth of the failure plane, the failure can be categorized by three prime modes: (i) along the impervious layer mode, (ii) shallow depth mode, and (iii) transitional mode. These modes can be characterized by the magnitude of a stability index termed as [Formula: see text] ratio. An infiltration index, termed as i/ks ratio, was found to play a role in the depth of the failure plane only for the transitional mode.
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Isola, Matteo, Enrica Caporali et Luis Garrote. « River Levee Overtopping : A Bivariate Methodology for Hydrological Characterization of Overtopping Failure ». Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 25, no 6 (juin 2020) : 04020026. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0001929.
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Allias Omar, Siti Mariam, Wan Noorul Hafilah Wan Ariffin, Lariyah Mohd Sidek, Hidayah Basri, Mohd Hazri Moh Khambali et Ali Najah Ahmed. « Hydrological Analysis of Batu Dam, Malaysia in the Urban Area : Flood and Failure Analysis Preparing for Climate Change ». International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no 24 (9 décembre 2022) : 16530. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192416530.
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Extensive hydrological analysis is carried out to estimate floods for the Batu Dam, a hydropower dam located in the urban area upstream of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The study demonstrates the operational state and reliability of the dam structure based on hydrologic assessment of the dam. The surrounding area is affected by heavy rainfall and climate change every year, which increases the probability of flooding and threatens a dense population downstream of the dam. This study evaluates the adequacy of dam spillways by considering the latest Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) values of the concerned dams. In this study, the PMP estimations are applied using comparison of both statistical method by Hershfield and National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM) Envelope Curve as input for PMF establishments. Since the PMF is derived from the PMP values, the highest design flood standard can be applied to any dam, ensuring inflow into the reservoirs and limiting the risk of dam structural failure. Hydrologic modeling using HEC-HMS provides PMF values for the Batu dam. Based on the results, Batu Dam is found to have 200.6 m3/s spillway discharge capacities. Under PMF conditions, the Batu dam will not face overtopping since the peak outflow of the reservoir level is still below the crest level of the dam.
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Al-Fugara, A’kif, Ali Nouh Mabdeh, Saad Alayyash et Awni Khasawneh. « Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Flash Flood and Embankment Dam Break Scenario : Hazard Mapping of Extreme Storm Events ». Sustainability 15, no 3 (17 janvier 2023) : 1758. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15031758.
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Simulation of dam breach scenarios can help in the preparation of emergency action plans for real dam breaks or flash flooding events. The purpose of this study was to identify flood-prone areas in the Al Wala Valley in the governorate of Madaba in Jordan through analysis of the Al Wala Dam. Modelling of dam breaches was conducted under two scenarios: a Clear Day scenario and a Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) scenario. The former scenario does not address the various dam failure modes; rather, it addresses the formation and development of a breach as a result of structural failures like the sliding of dam blocks in the case of a concrete dam or piping failures in the case of embankment dams. The PMF scenarios, however, simulate unsteady flow in pipes and overtopping failure via consideration of runoff hydrography. In the PMF scenario, flood-prone areas can be identified by in-depth analysis of data from previous extreme rainfall events. The related hydrologic and hydraulic data can then be modelled using intensity-duration-frequency curves applied to an hour-by-hour simulation to discover the areas most at risk of flooding in the future. In the present study, data were collected from inlet of flow to Al Wala Valley on 10 January 2013. The collected data, which included rainfall and discharge data, were fed to the HEC-HMS software in order to calibrate the hydrological parameters of the watershed of the Al Wala Dam. Additionally, the HEC-RAS tool was employed to determine the breach outflow hydrography and hydraulic conditions across various critical downstream locations, which were determined by use of dynamic flood wave-routing models. The simulations revealed that, in the case of the Clear Day scenario, downstream inundation would cover an area of 5.262 km2 in the event of a pipe failure. However, in the event of a six-hour storm, a twelve-hour storm, and a twenty-four-hour storm, the flooded area would rise to 6837 km2, 8518 km2, and 9390 km2, respectively. In the event of an overtopping failure, 13,171 km2 would be inundated, according to the Clear Day scenario. On the other hand, in the event of a six-hour storm, a twelve-hour storm, and a twenty four-hour storm, the flooded area would rise to 13,302 km2, 14,249 km2, and 14,594 km2, respectively.
9
Polemio, M., et P. Lollino. « Failure of infrastructure embankments induced by flooding and seepage : a neglected source of hazard ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11, no 12 (22 décembre 2011) : 3383–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3383-2011.
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Abstract. The risk of failure of transportation embankments due to seepage induced by temporary and occasional impoundments taking place on the upstream side as a consequence of exceptional rainfalls is frequently underestimated. These failure events result from a combination of three main factors, i.e. the flooding event, the hydraulic weakness and the geotechnical weakness of the embankment. Based on the case study of a railway embankment in Southern Italy that collapsed in 2005 due to an upstream impoundment that occurred after few hours of a very intense rainfall, the paper describes a methodological approach aimed at assessing hazard of failure of transportation embankments induced by flooding and seepage. In particular, according to hydrological, hydraulic and geotechnical studies performed to define the factors affecting the process of the embankment failure, three subsequent activities are proposed: the historical analysis of flood damages at the watershed scale; and the assessment of the upstream peak impoundment based on hydrological analysis and the embankment stability analysis, these latter to be carried out at the site specific scale. The approach here proposed is planned to be further validated and improved by means of the application to other case studies, characterised by different contexts and embankment structures.
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Harris, Charles, et Antoni G. Lewkowicz. « Form and internal structure of active-layer detachment slides, Fosheim Peninsula, Ellesmere Island, Northwest Territories, Canada ». Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences 30, no 8 (1 août 1993) : 1708–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/e93-149.
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Three recent shallow landslides over permafrost are described. Slides occur in low- to medium-plasticity clays containing some bands of silts and fine sands. Slope failure results from rapid thaw at the base of the active layer of soil that is ice-rich due to antecedent two-sided freezing. Displaced slide blocks retain their integrity because of hardening of the active layer by cryodesiccation and summer evaporation. Blocks move over a soft basal shear zone a few millimetres to several centimetres thick. Compression in the toe zone of slides is low at sites where runout is possible, but in other locations causes emergent shears and complex folding. Failure histories are varied and range from simple unitary slides to complex sequential failures in which active-layer segments are mobilized progressively higher up the slope. This study demonstrates the importance of active-layer thermal and hydrological regimes, in addition to material properties, in determining the mode of slope failure.
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Andréassian, Vazken, Charles Perrin, Eric Parent et Andras Bárdossy. « The Court of Miracles of Hydrology : can failure stories contribute to hydrological science ? » Hydrological Sciences Journal 55, no 6 (20 août 2010) : 849–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.506050.
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Klimenko, D. E., et D. N. Eponchintseva. « Experimental hydrological studies of processes of failure of beaver dams and pond draining ». Biology Bulletin 42, no 10 (décembre 2015) : 882–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1134/s1062359015100064.
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Arrojo, Pedro. « Spanish National Hydrological Plan : Reasons for its Failure and Arguments for the Future ». Water International 28, no 3 (septembre 2003) : 295–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02508060308691702.
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Kiss, Tímea, István Fehérváry et Károly Fiala. « Modelling the Hydrological Effects of a Levee Failure on the Lower Tisza River ». Journal of Environmental Geography 8, no 1-2 (1 juillet 2015) : 31–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jengeo-2015-0004.
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Abstract Along the Lower Tisza River (Hungary) the water level of the floods reached new record stages in 1998 and 2006, resulting in 80 cm increase in the peak flood level since the “great flood of 1970”. Due to the gradual weakening of the levee-system caused by the several long-lasting floods, the question has arisen, that as in case of a levee breach or failure how would it modify the hydrological parameters of the river. The aim of the research is to create a hydrological model to analyse the effects (as stage reduction, slope and stream power) of two different levee breaches: one happening before the peak of the flood and another at the time of the flood level. The simulated levee breaching happened on the Tisza River at Mindszent, and the data-set of the 2006 flood was used for the modelling (at that time no levee failure happened in Hungary, and it was the greatest flood in history). In the simulation the levee was broken at a point, where the channel is very close and intensively eroding, thus there is a real risk of a levee failure. If the levee would be broken a well defined area (reservoir) would be flooded, surrounded by the secondary levees and the rim of the high floodplain. During the simulation the HEC-RAS 4.1. ArcGIS 10.1 and HEC-GeoRAS software were applied. The greatest changes in the hydrology of Tisza occurred in the cross section where the levee breached, though the effects propagated upstream and downstream too. Due to the water outflow from the Tisza the greatest stage reduction effect was 1.54±0.1 m. The slope conditions changed too, as it increased from 4 cm/km to 6.5 cm/km in the upstream reach, while downstream of the failure point it decreased from 3.5 cm/km to 1.9 cm/km. At the same time the stream power increased from 4 W/m to 5.5 W/m in the upstream section, while it decreased from 3.5 W/m to 1.5 W/m in the downstream reach. Comparing the results of the simulations at different stages (one at the highest stage and one at 1.0 m lower stage) it seems that the hydrological parameters did not change considerably (1%), though in a case of a levee failure at higher the reservoir reached the maximal water level sooner, though less water was stored in it, as the fall of the river was continuous
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Tedla, Mihretab G., Younghyun Cho et Kyungsoo Jun. « Flood Mapping from Dam Break Due to Peak Inflow : A Coupled Rainfall–Runoff and Hydraulic Models Approach ». Hydrology 8, no 2 (6 juin 2021) : 89. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8020089.
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In this study, we conducted flood mapping of a hypothetical dam break by coupling the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) models under different return periods of flood inflow. This study is presented as a case study on the Kesem embankment dam in Ethiopia. Hourly hydrological and meteorological data and high-resolution land surface datasets were used to simulate the design floods for piping dam failure with empirical dam breach methods. Based on the extreme inflows and the dam physical characteristics, the dam failure was simulated by a two-dimensional, unsteady flow hydrodynamic model. As a result, the dam will remain safe for up to 50-year return-period inflows, but it breaks for 100- and 200-year return periods and floods the downstream area. For the 100-year peak inflow, a 208 km2 area will be inundated by a maximum depth of 20 m and for a maximum duration of 46 h. The 200-year inflow will inundate a 240 km2 area with a maximum depth of 31 m for a maximum duration of 93 h. The 2D flood map provides satisfactory spatial and temporal resolution of the inundated area for evaluation of the affected facilities.
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Hirpessa, Yerosan Abera, et Ing Dereje Hailu. « ASSESSMENT OF FAILURE ON DRAINAGE STRUCTURES ALONG THE ETHIOPIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY LINE OF SEBETA-MIESO (CASE STUDY OF AKAKI RIVER CROSSING DRAINAGE STRUCTURE) ». International Journal of Research -GRANTHAALAYAH 7, no 9 (30 septembre 2019) : 123–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.29121/granthaalayah.v7.i9.2019.568.
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A railway drainage system gives vital role for effective, efficient operation of rail track. This study worked on an assessment of railway drainage system problem along the Addis Ababa- Mieso railway line, specifically on Akaki rives crossing. It was done to check adequacy of hydraulic structure provided on Akaki River crossing by undertaking hydrologic and hydraulic analysis.
Hydrologic modeling of the Akaki catchment area was developed by HEC-GeoHMS program with the help of Arc-GIS and hydrologic analysis was computed by HEC-HMS program. The catchment land use, soil type, rainfall data, Akaki river stream flow data, etc were used to develop hydrological model. SCS unit hydrograph and flood frequency analysis methods were used to estimate instantaneous peak design discharge for 50 and 100 year return period. Model input parameters were calibrated and verified with observed flow data of the river at Akaki gauging station.
Hydraulic models were developed by HEC-RAS step-backwater to determine water-surface profiles for the bridge. Cross-sectional elevation data, hydraulic-structure geometries, roughness coefficients along with peak-discharge esti¬mated were used as input for the model.
Finally, adequacy of the bridge was evaluated where the bridge was hydraulically efficient over its design period.
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Kang, Sinhang, Seung-Rae Lee et Sung-Eun Cho. « Slope Stability Analysis of Unsaturated Soil Slopes Based on the Site-Specific Characteristics : A Case Study of Hwangryeong Mountain, Busan, Korea ». Sustainability 12, no 7 (2 avril 2020) : 2839. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12072839.
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Shallow slope failures occur almost every year during the rainy season. Continuous observation of the meteorological parameters and hydrological characteristics is required to more clearly understand the triggering mechanisms of shallow slope failure. In addition, influential factors, such as type of relative permeability models, air flow, and variation of hydraulic conductivity associated with stress–strain behavior of soil, have significant effects on the actual mechanism of rainfall infiltration. Real-time data including hourly rainfall and pore water pressure in response to rainfall was recorded by devices; then, the change in pore pressure from the devices was compared to the results from the infiltration analysis with applications of three relative permeability models, air flow, and the coupled hydro-mechanical analysis to examine an appropriate site-specific approach to a rainfall infiltration analysis. The infiltration and stability analyses based on the site-specific hydrologic characteristics were utilized to create maps of safety factors that depend on the cumulative rainfall. In regions vulnerable to landslides, rainfall forecast information and safety factor maps built by applying various rainfall scenarios can be useful in preparing countermeasures against disasters during the rainy season.
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Herbozo, Jorge Enrique, Luis Eduardo Muñoz, María José Guerra, Veronica Minaya, Patricia Haro, Veronica Carrillo, Carla Manciati et Lenin Campozano. « Non-Stationary Hydrological Regimes Due to Climate Change : The Impact of Future Precipitation in the Spillway Design of a Reservoir, Case Study : Sube y Baja Dam, in Ecuador ». Atmosphere 13, no 5 (18 mai 2022) : 828. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050828.
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Changes in flood loads and reservoir levels, produced by climate change (CC), represent an increasing concern for dam safety managers and downstream populations, highlighting the need to define adaptation strategies based on the dam failure risk management framework. Currently, thousands of dams worldwide, varying in use, age, and maintenance, may represent a threat to downstream cities in the case of structural failure. Several studies relate the failure of dams to several issues in the spillway, which may be even more vulnerable in CC conditions. This study provides a review of dam safety threats due to CC and approaches for the design/redesign of the spillway to cope with CC. A general four-stage methodology is proposed: data gathering and hydro-climatic, hydrological, and hydraulic analyses. Afterward, this methodology is applied to the spillway design for the Sube y Baja dam in Ecuador. The Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) increases around 20% considering CC under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Such an increment derived a 25% increase in the spillway maximum flow. These results show that the non-stationary hydrological regimes related to CC require a revision of engineering design criteria for hydraulic structures in general, and call for a consensus on design variables under CC.
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Hariri-Ardebili, Mohammad Amin. « Analytical failure probability model for generic gravity dam classes ». Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O : Journal of Risk and Reliability 231, no 5 (19 juin 2017) : 546–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1748006x17712663.
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Risk analysis of concrete dams and quantification of the failure probability are important tasks in dam safety assessment. The conditional probability of demand and capacity is usually estimated by numerical simulation and Monte Carlo technique. However, the estimated failure probability (or the reliability index) is dam-dependent which makes its application limited to some case studies. This article proposes an analytical failure model for generic gravity dam classes which is optimized based on large number of nonlinear finite element analyses. A hybrid parametric–probabilistic–statistical approach is used to estimate the failure probability as a function of dam size, material distributional models and external hydrological hazard. The proposed model can be used for preliminary design and evaluation of two-dimensional gravity dam models.
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Mallakpour, Iman, Amir AghaKouchak et Mojtaba Sadegh. « Climate‐Induced Changes in the Risk of Hydrological Failure of Major Dams in California ». Geophysical Research Letters 46, no 4 (25 février 2019) : 2130–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081888.
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Muntohar, Agus Setyo, et Hung-Jiun Liao. « Analysis of rainfall-induced infinite slope failure during typhoon using a hydrological–geotechnical model ». Environmental Geology 56, no 6 (7 février 2008) : 1145–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00254-008-1215-2.
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Gutierrez-Lopez, Alfonso. « Methodological Guide to Forensic Hydrology ». Water 14, no 23 (27 novembre 2022) : 3863. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14233863.
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In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region, geophysical, meteorological and hydrological disasters are increasing every year. With significantly limited resources, these countries are naturally forced to absorb lessons from these disasters. One of the fundamental activities during this learning task remains the need to standardize the forensic reporting process. Like all academic disciplines, engineering is exceptional in its application to the forensic field. This feature makes it a unique input to the investigation of hydrological and environmental catastrophes. Based on the fundamental concepts of forensic investigation, ten principles for properly conducting forensic hydrology studies are proposed. The ten principles proposed are: (i) Principle of use, (ii) production, (iii) principle of exchange, (iv) recognition, (v) correspondence, (vi) reconstruction, (vii) principle of probability, (viii) uncertainty, (ix) principle of certainty, and (x) conclusion principle. A hypothetical case of urban infrastructure failure is used to explain, in detail, each of the proposed principles. This paper proposes a methodology to be considered as a reference point for a forensic hydrological analysis to be used at the LAC region.
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Ignjatović, Lazar, Milan Stojković, Damjan Ivetić, Miloš Milašinović et Nikola Milivojević. « Quantifying Multi-Parameter Dynamic Resilience for Complex Reservoir Systems Using Failure Simulations : Case Study of the Pirot Reservoir System ». Water 13, no 22 (9 novembre 2021) : 3157. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13223157.
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The objective of this research is to introduce a novel framework to quantify the risk of the reservoir system outside the design envelope, taking into account the risks related to flood-protection and hydro-energy generation under unfavourable reservoir element conditions (system element failures) and hazardous situations within the environment (flood event). To analyze water system behavior in adverse conditions, a system analysis approach is used, which is founded upon the system dynamics model with a causal loop. The capability of the system in performing the intended functionality can be quantified using the traditional static measures like reliability, resilience and vulnerability, or dynamic resilience. In this paper, a novel method for the assessment of a multi-parameter dynamic resilience is introduced. The multi-parameter dynamic resilience envelops the hydropower and flood-protection resilience, as two opposing demands in the reservoir operation regime. A case study of a Pirot reservoir, in the Republic of Serbia, is used. To estimate the multi -parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system, a hydrological model, and a system dynamic simulation model with an inner control loop, is developed. The inner control loop provides the relation between the hydropower generation and flood-protection. The hydrological model is calibrated and generated climate inputs are used to simulate the long-term flow sequences. The most severe flood event period is extracted to be used as the input for the system dynamics simulations. The system performance for five different scenarios with various multi failure events (e.g., generator failure, segment gate failure on the spillway, leakage from reservoir and water supply tunnel failure due to earthquake) are presented using the novel concept of the explicit modeling of the component failures through element functionality indicators. Based on the outputs from the system dynamics model, system performance is determined and, later, hydropower and flood protection resilience. Then, multi-parameter dynamic resilience of the Pirot reservoir system is estimated and compared with the traditional static measures (reliability). Discrepancy between the drop between multi-parameter resilience (from 0.851 to 0.935) and reliability (from 0.993 to 1) shows that static measure underestimates the risk to the water system. Thus, the results from this research show that multi-parameter dynamic resilience, as an indicator, can provide additional insight compared to the traditional static measures, leading to identification of the vulnerable elements of a complex reservoir system. Additionally, it is shown that the proposed explicit modeling of system components failure can be used to reflect the drop of the overall system functionality.
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Pradhan, Samprada, David G. Toll, Nick J. Rosser et Matthew J. Brain. « Field monitoring of soil-moisture to understand the hydrological response of a road-cut slope ». E3S Web of Conferences 195 (2020) : 01029. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202019501029.
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Rainfall and slope-cutting for road construction are two key landslide causative factors in Nepal, but how they interact to cause failures is poorly understood. To improve understanding of the effects of cut slopes during rainfall, geotechnical investigations and field monitoring were conducted in a mountainous district, Sindhupalchowk, located in central Nepal. This paper presents the results of the field-investigations and the measurements of volumetric water content obtained from the sensors installed in the study-site. Field-based evidence suggests that the slope that was cut for road construction during the dry period remained stable due to the presence of soil suction, which imparted additional strength to the soil. At the start of the monsoon, infiltration of rainwater caused saturation of the soil at shallow depth, consequently causing loss of suction and reduction of the soil strength. The presence of the road-cut in the hillslope resulting in steeper slopes then promoted the failure. These observations suggest that the presence of road-cuts in the hillslopes can cause landslides even during non-exceptional rainfall events.
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Marton, Daniel, Miloš Starý et Pavel Menšík. « Analysis of the influence of input data uncertainties on determining the reliability of reservoir storage capacity ». Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics 63, no 4 (1 décembre 2015) : 287–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/johh-2015-0036.
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Abstract The paper contains a sensitivity analysis of the influence of uncertainties in input hydrological, morphological and operating data required for a proposal for active reservoir conservation storage capacity and its achieved values. By introducing uncertainties into the considered inputs of the water management analysis of a reservoir, the subsequent analysed reservoir storage capacity is also affected with uncertainties. The values of water outflows from the reservoir and the hydrological reliabilities are affected with uncertainties as well. A simulation model of reservoir behaviour has been compiled with this kind of calculation as stated below. The model allows evaluation of the solution results, taking uncertainties into consideration, in contributing to a reduction in the occurrence of failure or lack of water during reservoir operation in low-water and dry periods.
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Chung, M. C., C. H. Chen, T. L. Tai et M. M. Chen. « FAILURE MECHANISM ANALYSIS CONSIDERS THE HYDROLOGICAL AND SEISMIC CONDITIONS AT CHASHAN SITE IN CENTRAL TAIWAN ». ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-3/W4 (6 mars 2018) : 159–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-3-w4-159-2018.
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<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The investigation results of large-scale landslides in the central part of Taiwan from Central Geologic Survey identified a new, largescale landslide in the Chashan Village of Alishan Township, Chiayi County (ID: D160) which has the potential to influence the safety of Chashan Village residents. In coordination with the surface geological survey, Chashan site can be divided into three potential sliding areas (zones A, B and C). The paper uses GeoStudio for evaluating the stability of different hydrological and seismic scenarios. The results of scenario simulation show that: (1) In the normal and high water level scenarios, the safety factor obtained in zone A is greater than 1.0, and the initial judgment belongs to the stable state; (2) In the earthquake scenarios, the A4 potential sliding mass in zone A will be collapsed; (3) Through the scenario simulation, when the water level in zone A rises more than 25 meters or the PGA exceeds 160 gal, it is possible to cause the collapse of A4 potential sliding mass. The result of the study will contribute that the complex phenomenon between the stability of landslides and hydrogeological conditions can be revealed and clarified through the detailed study on the hydrogeological investigation, observation and the numerical simulation.</p>
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Leshchinsky, Ben, Michael J. Olsen, Curran Mohney, Matt O'Banion, Michael Bunn, Jonathan Allan et Reilly McClung. « Quantifying the Sensitivity of Progressive Landslide Movements to Failure Geometry, Undercutting Processes and Hydrological Changes ». Journal of Geophysical Research : Earth Surface 124, no 2 (février 2019) : 616–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018jf004833.
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Yacouba, Yira, Bossa Y. Aymar, Keita Amadou, Fusillier J. -Louis, Serpantié Georges, Yaméogo B. Thomas, Idrissou Mouhamed et Lidon Bruno. « Failure of inland valleys development : a hydrological diagnosis of the Bankandi valley in Burkina Faso ». Modeling Earth Systems and Environment 5, no 4 (19 août 2019) : 1733–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40808-019-00628-5.
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Grillakis, M. G., I. K. Tsanis et A. G. Koutroulis. « Application of the HBV hydrological model in a flash flood case in Slovenia ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10, no 12 (22 décembre 2010) : 2713–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2713-2010.
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Abstract. An atmospheric depression passed over northwest Slovenia on 18 September 2007 producing precipitation that exceeded 300 mm/d and a 100-year return period runoff in Zelezniki tributary. The resultant flash flood in the study area, which consisted of five basins, was simulated with the conceptual distributed hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning). The model was calibrated and validated with past rainfall – runoff events with satisfactory results producing values of Nash – Sutcliffe coefficient between 0.82 and 0.96. The validated model was applied to the flash flood case with stream gauge failure, driven by spatiotemporal precipitation produced by a set of rain gauges and radar data. The model delivered satisfactory results on three out of five basin outlets while the other two had stream gauge failure during the event. The internal basin dynamics of the most affected area in Zelezniki, was successfully tested in eight of its sub-basins by comparing the peak discharges with the ones evaluated by the slope-conveyance method during a detailed intensive post event campaign. The added value of this method is in the reduced uncertainty in peak discharge estimation and event interpretation and in an effective flash flood warning system for the study area when it is combined with radar nowcasts and operational high resolution short range weather forecast models.
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Rossi, G., F. Catani, L. Leoni, S. Segoni et V. Tofani. « HIRESSS : a physically based slope stability simulator for HPC applications ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13, no 1 (25 janvier 2013) : 151–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-151-2013.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract. HIRESSS (HIgh REsolution Slope Stability Simulator) is a physically based distributed slope stability simulator for analyzing shallow landslide triggering conditions in real time and on large areas using parallel computational techniques. The physical model proposed is composed of two parts: hydrological and geotechnical. The hydrological model receives the rainfall data as dynamical input and provides the pressure head as perturbation to the geotechnical stability model that computes the factor of safety (FS) in probabilistic terms. The hydrological model is based on an analytical solution of an approximated form of the Richards equation under the wet condition hypothesis and it is introduced as a modeled form of hydraulic diffusivity to improve the hydrological response. The geotechnical stability model is based on an infinite slope model that takes into account the unsaturated soil condition. During the slope stability analysis the proposed model takes into account the increase in strength and cohesion due to matric suction in unsaturated soil, where the pressure head is negative. Moreover, the soil mass variation on partially saturated soil caused by water infiltration is modeled. The model is then inserted into a Monte Carlo simulation, to manage the typical uncertainty in the values of the input geotechnical and hydrological parameters, which is a common weak point of deterministic models. The Monte Carlo simulation manages a probability distribution of input parameters providing results in terms of slope failure probability. The developed software uses the computational power offered by multicore and multiprocessor hardware, from modern workstations to supercomputing facilities (HPC), to achieve the simulation in reasonable runtimes, compatible with civil protection real time monitoring. A first test of HIRESSS in three different areas is presented to evaluate the reliability of the results and the runtime performance on large areas.
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Hakro, M. R., et I. S. H. Harahap. « Laboratory experiments on rainfall-induced flowslide from pore pressure and moisture content measurements ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 3, no 2 (24 février 2015) : 1575–613. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-1575-2015.
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Abstract. During or immediately after rainfall many slope failures have been observed. The slope failure occurred due to rainfall infiltration that rapidly increase the pore pressure and trigger the slope failure. Numerous studies have been conducted to investigate the rainfall-induced slope failure, but the mechanism of slope failure is still not well clarified. To investigate mechanism of rainfall-induced slope failure laboratory experiments have been conducted in flume. The slope was prepared with sandy soil in flume with constant inclination of 45°, because most of rainfall-induced slope failure occurred in sandy soil and on steep slope. The hydrological parameters such as pore pressure and moisture content were measured with piezometers and advanced Imko TDRs respectively. The slope failure occurred due to increase in moisture content and rise in pore pressure. During the flowslide type of slope failure the sudden increase in pore pressure was observed. The higher moisture content and pore pressure was at the toe of the slope. The pore pressure was higher at the toe of the slope and smaller at the upper part of the slope. After the saturation the run-off was observed at the toe of the slope that erodes the toe and forming the gullies from toe to upper part of the slope. In the case antecedent moisture conditions the moisture content and the pore pressure increased quickly and producing the surface runoff at the horizontal part of the slope. The slope having less density suffer from flowslide type of the failure, however in dense slope no major failure was occurred even at higher rainfall intensity. The antecedent moisture accompanied with high rainfall intensity also not favors the initiation of flowslide in case of dense slope. The flowslide type of failure can be avoided by controlling the density of soil slope. Knowing such parameters that controls the large mass movement helpful in developing the early warning system for flowslide type of failure.
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Rianna, Guido, Luca Comegna, Luca Pagano, Luciano Picarelli et Alfredo Reder. « The Role of Hydraulic Hysteresis on the Hydrological Response of Pyroclastic Silty Covers ». Water 11, no 3 (26 mars 2019) : 628. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w11030628.
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A significant part of the recent geotechnical literature concerning pyroclastic soils is focused on the characterization of the hydrological effects of precipitations and their implications for the stability conditions of unsaturated sloping covers. Recent experience shows that suction-induced strength reduction is influenced by various factors including hydraulic hysteresis. A deeper insight into the hysteretic water retention behavior of these materials and its effects upon their response to dry/wetting conditions is a major goal of this paper, which exploits the data provided by the monitoring of a volcanic ash. Based on the parameters retrieved from data calibration, the hydrological response of a virtual slope subject to one-dimensional rainfall infiltration is investigated by numerical analyses and compared with the results obtained through the usually adopted non-hysteretic approaches. The analysis demonstrates that considering the hysteretic behavior may be crucial for a proper evaluation of the conditions leading to slope failure.
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Kleidorfer, M., M. Möderl, S. Fach et W. Rauch. « Optimization of measurement campaigns for calibration of a conceptual sewer model ». Water Science and Technology 59, no 8 (1 avril 2009) : 1523–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2009.154.
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To simulate hydrological models of combined sewer systems an accurate calibration is indispensable. In addition to all sources of uncertainties in data collection due to the measurement methods itself, it is a key question which data has to be collected to calibrate a hydrological model, how long measurement campaigns should last and where that data has to be collected in a spatial distributed system as it is neither possible nor sensible to measure the complete system characteristics. In this paper we address this question by means of stochastic modelling. Using Monte Carlo Simulation different calibration strategies (selection of measurement sites, selection of rainfall-events) and different calibration parameters (overflow volume, number of overflows) are tested, in order to evaluate the influence on predicting the total overflow volume of the entire system. This methodology is applied in a case study with the aim to calculate the combined sewer overflow (CSO) efficiency. It can be shown that a distributed hydrological model can be calibrated sufficiently when calibration is done on 30% of all existing CSOs based on long-term observation. Event based calibration is limited possible to a limited extend when calibration events are selected carefully as wrong selection of calibration events can result in a complete failure of the calibration exercise.
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Mirus, Benjamin, Michael Morphew et Joel Smith. « Developing Hydro-Meteorological Thresholds for Shallow Landslide Initiation and Early Warning ». Water 10, no 9 (18 septembre 2018) : 1274. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10091274.
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Consistent relations between shallow landslide initiation and associated rainfall characteristics remain difficult to identify, due largely to the complex hydrological and geological processes causing slopes to be predisposed to failure and those processes that subsequently trigger failures. Considering the importance of hillslope hydrology for rainfall-induced landsliding, we develop and test a method for identifying hybrid hydro-meteorological thresholds to assess landslide initiation potential. We outline a series of steps for using a landslide inventory in combination with triggering rainfall and antecedent wetness to identify empirical thresholds that can inform landslide early warning systems. The method is semi-automated but remains flexible enough to allow threshold developers to consider data inputs and various performance metrics with different priorities for balancing failed versus false alarms. We demonstrate the utility of our approach for two monitoring sites near Seattle, Washington and in Portland, Oregon, USA, to develop daily bilinear thresholds within a two-dimensional parameter space, which rely on accurate 24 h forecasts, measured recent rainfall and in situ soil saturation. Although there were no prior landslide thresholds for Portland, our new hybrid threshold for the Seattle area outperforms established rainfall-only thresholds for the same region. Introducing subsurface hydrologic monitoring into landslide initiation thresholds has the potential to greatly improve early warning capabilities and help reduce losses.
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Muntohar, Agus Setyo, et Hung-Jiun Liao. « Erratum to : Analysis of rainfall-induced infinite slope failure during typhoon using a hydrological–geotechnical model ». Environmental Geology 56, no 6 (20 mars 2008) : 1161. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00254-008-1285-1.
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Lackowska, Marta, Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin et Mirosław Grochowski. « Lakes sensitivity to climatic stress – a sociological assessment ». Miscellanea Geographica 20, no 4 (1 décembre 2016) : 38–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/mgrsd-2016-0025.
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AbstractOne of the conditions for effective water resources management in protected areas is local decision makers’ knowledge about potential threats caused by climate changes. Our study, conducted in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve of Tuchola Forest in Poland, analyses the perception of threats by local stakeholders. Their assessments of the sensitivity of four lakes to the extreme weather events are compared with hydrological studies. The survey shows that the lakes’ varying responses to extreme weather conditions is rarely noticed by ordinary observers. Their perception is usually far from the hydrological facts, which indicates a lack of relevant information or a failure in making it widely accessible and understandable. Moreover, it is rather the human impact, not climate change, which is seen as the biggest threat to the lakes. Insufficient environmental knowledge may hinder the effective protection and management of natural resources, due to bad decisions and lack of the local communities’ support for adaptation and mitigation policies.
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Trambauer, P., M. Werner, H. C. Winsemius, S. Maskey, E. Dutra et S. Uhlenbrook. « Hydrological drought forecasting and skill assessment for the Limpopo River basin, southern Africa ». Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19, no 4 (13 avril 2015) : 1695–711. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1695-2015.
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Abstract. Ensemble hydrological predictions are normally obtained by forcing hydrological models with ensembles of atmospheric forecasts produced by numerical weather prediction models. To be of practical value to water users, such forecasts should not only be sufficiently skilful, they should also provide information that is relevant to the decisions end users make. The semi-arid Limpopo Basin in southern Africa has experienced severe droughts in the past, resulting in crop failure, economic losses and the need for humanitarian aid. In this paper we address the seasonal prediction of hydrological drought in the Limpopo River basin by testing three proposed forecasting systems (FS) that can provide operational guidance to reservoir operators and water managers at the seasonal timescale. All three FS include a distributed hydrological model of the basin, which is forced with either (i) a global atmospheric model forecast (ECMWF seasonal forecast system – S4), (ii) the commonly applied ensemble streamflow prediction approach (ESP) using resampled historical data, or (iii) a conditional ESP approach (ESPcond) that is conditional on the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) signal. We determine the skill of the three systems in predicting streamflow and commonly used drought indices. We also assess the skill in predicting indicators that are meaningful to local end users in the basin. FS_S4 shows moderate skill for all lead times (3, 4, and 5 months) and aggregation periods. FS_ESP also performs better than climatology for the shorter lead times, but with lower skill than FS_S4. FS_ESPcond shows intermediate skill compared to the other two FS, though its skill is shown to be more robust. The skill of FS_ESP and FS_ESPcond is found to decrease rapidly with increasing lead time when compared to FS_S4. The results show that both FS_S4 and FS_ESPcond have good potential for seasonal hydrological drought forecasting in the Limpopo River basin, which is encouraging in the context of providing better operational guidance to water users.
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Stefanyshyn, Dmytro V. « Probability assessment of the Kyiv reservoir overflow ». Environmental safety and natural resources 40, no 4 (24 décembre 2021) : 73–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.32347/2411-4049.2021.4.73-99.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Reservoirs are an integral part of the world’s hydraulic infrastructure and form the basis of modern water management in most countries including Ukraine. However, reservoirs are also sources of an essential danger to the environment, infrastructure, and population. The potential danger and risks to the population living near reservoirs especially downstream may be no less than to people living near nuclear facilities or chemical plants, with which experts and the public usually associate problems of technogenic safety. Moreover, statistics show that about a third of all accidents on dams and levees occurred due to overflow of reservoirs when upstream water levels exceeded allowable values.There are 1103 reservoirs in Ukraine with a total water volume of about 55,500 million m3. The Kyiv reservoir is the third one by volume and water surface area in the country. In addition, the reservoir is created by one of the longest dams in the world; the total dam length of the reservoir reaches 70 km.Admittedly, the overflow of a reservoir can be caused by an extreme flood with inflow parameters exceeding the capacity of hydraulic structures. The challenge is that the capacity of water passage structures may be insufficient both due to the inaccuracy of the hydrological forecast and because of faults, poor functioning, or failures of the hydraulic structures during a design flood. In particular, long-term forecasts of floodwater discharges maxima of the inflow into the Kyiv reservoir based on using various probability distribution functions show the essential divergence of the obtained results. As well, as practice shows, the unavailability of some water passage tracts of the reservoir can reach several months in a year. Sometimes repair works were performed even during floods.The aim of the study consisted of probabilistic forecasting the emergency situation on the Kyiv reservoir as a result of its uncontrolled overflow through the possible inaccuracy of the hydrological forecast concerning an actual water inflow into the reservoir and due to failures of water passage hydraulic structures during floods. To achieve the study aim the following tasks were solved: (1) there was proposed a method of hydrological forecasting, which allows taking into account results of long-term forecasts of floodwater discharges maxima based on using various probability distribution functions and fuzzy modelling; (2) there was performed hydrological forecasting of floodwater discharges maxima of the Dnieper affecting the condition of the Kyiv reservoir based on the actual data collected the Vyshgorod water level gauge; (3) there was assessed the probability of the Kyiv reservoir overflow taking into account the occurrence possibility of a shortage of the capacity of water passage structures with using the failure and fault tree method. Totally, six incompatible hypothetical emergency situations at the Kyiv reservoir were considered. The calculations showed the total probability of the Kyiv reservoir overflow equal to 3.84*10–4 (year–1), which is acceptable to guarantee the hydrological safety of infrastructure and the population.
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Hingray, B., E. Monbaron, I. Jarrar, A. C. Favre, D. Consuegra et A. Musy. « Stochastic generation and disaggregation of hourly rainfall series for continuous hydrological modelling and flood control reservoir design ». Water Science and Technology 45, no 2 (1 janvier 2002) : 113–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2002.0035.
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In the urban environment, stormwater detention basins are a powerful means to limit the frequency of sewer system failures and consecutive urban flooding. To design such waterworks or to check their efficiency, it is possible to carry out continuous rainfall-runoff modelling. A long-term discharge series obtained from a long-term rainfall series is used as input for a storage model describing the detention basin behaviour: the basin behaviour may be consequently studied over a long period. The provided statistical information on the working state frequency, failure frequency, … of the detention basin is of high interest for the basin diagnostic or for its design. This paper presents the whole methodology which leads to production of such statistical information and especially: the models used to generate long term rainfall series with a short time step, the rainfall-runoff model used to transform the later series into a long term discharge series, and the model used to describe the behaviour of the detention basin. This methodology was applied to evaluate the efficiency of 4 detention basins built for stormwater control and flood mitigation. They are situated on a Swiss urban catchment (Chamberonne catchment – 40 km2) collecting water from the Mèbre and Sorge rivers.
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Mite, Habtamu Washe, et Maschal Tilahun Zenebe. « Assessing on the Geotechnical Problems Which Causes for the Road Failure from Gilgel Beles to Bahir Dar Road Segment ». International Journal of Scientific & ; Engineering Research 11, no 10 (25 octobre 2020) : 714–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.14299/ijser.2020.10.01.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Geotechnical problems such as problematic soils (expansive soil, organic soil, natural collapsible soils, etc.), problematic rock (shale, weathered limestone), soil slope instability and rock slope instability or rock fall (landslide) which damaged civil engineering structures, such as roads, buildings, dams, railway, and other related structures in Ethiopia. The research was conducted by identifying the geotechnical problems and its effects on road segments in the north west part of Ethiopia, specifically along Gilgel Belles – Bahir Dar road segments. Gilgel Beles – Bahirdar road segment which passes on the hilly and mountainous terrain are characterized by variable topographical, geological, hydrological and land-use condition.
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Hakro, Muhammad Rehan, et Indra Sati Hamonangan Harahap. « Type of Slope Failure Identified from Pore Water Pressure and Moisture Content Measurements ». Applied Mechanics and Materials 744-746 (mars 2015) : 690–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.744-746.690.
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Rainfall-induced landslides occur in many parts of the world and causing a lot of the damages. For effective prediction of rainfall-induced landslides the comprehensive understanding of the failure process is necessary. Under different soil and hydrological conditions experiments were conducted to investigate and clarify the mechanism of slope failure. The failure in model slope was induced by sprinkling the rainfall on slope composed of sandy soil in small flume. Series of tests were conducted in small scale flume to better understand the failure process in sandy slopes. The moisture content was measured with advanced Imko TDR (Time Domain Reflectrometry) moisture sensors in addition to measurements of pore pressure with piezometers. The moisture content increase rapidly to reach the maximum possible water content in case of higher intensity of rainfall, and higher intensity of the rainfall causes higher erosion as compared to smaller intensity of the rainfall. The controlling factor for rainfall-induced flowslides was density of the slope, rather than intensity of the rainfall and during the flowslide the sudden increase in pore pressure was observed. Higher pore pressure was observed at the toe of the slope as compared to upper part of the slope.
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van Asch, Theo, Bin Yu et Wei Hu. « The Development of a 1-D Integrated Hydro-Mechanical Model Based on Flume Tests to Unravel Different Hydrological Triggering Processes of Debris Flows ». Water 10, no 7 (17 juillet 2018) : 950. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w10070950.
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Many studies which try to analyze conditions for debris flow development ignore the type of initiation. Therefore, this paper deals with the following questions: What type of hydro-mechanical triggering mechanisms for debris flows can we distinguish in upstream channels of debris flow prone gullies? Which are the main parameters controlling the type and temporal sequence of these triggering processes, and what is their influence on the meteorological thresholds for debris flow initiation? A series of laboratory experiments were carried out in a flume 8 m long and with a width of 0.3 m to detect the conditions for different types of triggering mechanisms. The flume experiments show a sequence of hydrological processes triggering debris flows, namely erosion and transport by intensive overland flow and by infiltrating water causing failure of channel bed material. On the basis of these experiments, an integrated hydro-mechanical model was developed, which describes Hortonian and saturation overland flow, maximum sediment transport, through flow and failure of bed material. The model was calibrated and validated using process indicator values measured during the experiments in the flume. Virtual model simulations carried out in a schematic hypothetical source area of a catchment show that slope angle and hydraulic conductivity of the bed material determine the type and sequence of these triggering processes. It was also clearly demonstrated that the type of hydrological triggering process and the influencing geometrical and hydro-mechanical parameters may have a great influence on rainfall intensity-duration threshold curves for the start of debris flows.
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Lindenschmidt, K. E., K. Fleischbein, T. Petrow, S. Vorogushyn, S. Theobald et B. Merz. « Model system development and uncertainty for the provisionary management of extreme floods in large river basins ». Advances in Geosciences 5 (16 décembre 2005) : 99–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-5-99-2005.
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Abstract. A research project is introduced in which a modelling system is being developed to quantify risks of extreme flooding in large river basins. In the system, computer models and modules are coupled to simulate the functional chain: hydrology - hydraulics - polder diversion - dyke failure - flooding - damage estimate - risk assessment. In order to reduce uncertainty in flood frequency analyses, data sets are complimented with information from historical chronicles and artwork. Probable maximum precipitation and discharge are calculated to indicate upper bounds of meteorological and hydrological extremes. Uncertainty analysis is investigated for different degrees of model complexity and compared at different basin scales.
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Arnold, S., et E. R. Williams. « Quantification of the inevitable : the influence of soil macrofauna on soil water movement in rehabilitated open-cut mine land ». SOIL Discussions 2, no 2 (14 août 2015) : 853–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/soild-2-853-2015.
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Abstract. Recolonisation of soil by macrofauna (especially ants and termites) in rehabilitated open-cut mine sites is inevitable. In these highly disturbed landscapes, soil invertebrates play a major role in soil development (macropore configuration, nutrient cycling, bioturbation, etc.) and can influence hydrological processes such as infiltration and seepage. Understanding and quantifying these ecosystem processes is important in rehabilitation design, establishment and subsequent management to ensure progress to the desired end-goal, especially in waste cover systems designed to prevent water reaching and transporting underlying hazardous waste materials. However, soil macrofauna are typically overlooked during hydrological modelling, possibly due to uncertainties on the extent of their influence, which can lead to failure of waste cover systems or rehabilitation activities. We propose that scientific experiments under controlled conditions are required to quantify (i) macrofauna – soil structure interactions, (ii) functional dynamics of macrofauna taxa, and (iii) their effects on macrofauna and soil development over time. Such knowledge would provide crucial information for soil water models, which would increase confidence in mine waste cover design recommendations and eventually lead to higher likelihood of rehabilitation success of open-cut mining land.
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Mohite, Mahesh Mahadev, et G. B. Bangal. « Life of Different Soil and Water Conservation Structures ». International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences 11, no 10 (10 octobre 2022) : 168–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2022.1110.020.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The soil and water conservation hold the key position in agricultural position and watershed development. The expenditure incurred in construction is of high magnitude and hence structure need to last for longer duration in the field. The study was undertaken to study and compare the existing design procedures used in Department of Agriculture and reported in literature for various temporary and permanent soil and water conservation structures and to estimate the expected life of different soil and water conservation structures based on hydrological approach. It was revealed that the design return period considered in the design procedures adopted by Department of Agriculture are very less and hence the expected life of structure is less. This means that there is risk of failure of these structures due to unexpected high flows. The design return period for temporary, semi-permanent and permanent structures should be worked out by assigning certain risks of failure.
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Tamagnone, Paolo, Luis Cea, Elena Comino et Maurizio Rosso. « Rainwater Harvesting Techniques to Face Water Scarcity in African Drylands : Hydrological Efficiency Assessment ». Water 12, no 9 (22 septembre 2020) : 2646. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12092646.
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The sub-Saharan climate is experiencing a marked increase in temperature and intensification of precipitation intensity and variability. Besides, longer dry spells are compromising the reliability of local agricultural practices. The present study provides a comprehensive investigation about the benefits induced by using indigenous rainwater harvesting techniques (RWHT) against hydrometeorological threats affecting the Sahelian areas. Different RWHT have been tested in term of runoff retention, infiltration increase into the root zone, and soil water stress mitigation. To achieve these purposes, hydrological processes at the field scale have been investigated using a two-dimensional distributed hydrological model. To make the study representative of the whole Sahelian areas, several simulations were carried out adopting a wide range of input parameters based on conventional values of those areas. The results reveal that RWHT may lead to a runoff retention up to 87% and to double the infiltration. Intercepting and storing runoff, RWHT increase the water content in the root zone and the right design can diminish the crop water stress. Furthermore, the results show that adopting RWHT makes it possible to extend the growing season up to 20 days, enhancing the yield. These benefits contribute to the reduction of the climate-related water stress and the prevention of crop failure.
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Fluixá-Sanmartín, Javier, Adrián Morales-Torres, Ignacio Escuder-Bueno et Javier Paredes-Arquiola. « Quantification of climate change impact on dam failure risk under hydrological scenarios : a case study from a Spanish dam ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 19, no 10 (1 octobre 2019) : 2117–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2117-2019.
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Abstract. Dam safety is increasingly subjected to the influence of climate change. Its impacts must be assessed through the integration of the various effects acting on each aspect, considering their interdependencies, rather than just a simple accumulation of separate impacts. This serves as a dam safety management supporting tool to assess the vulnerability of the dam to climate change and to define adaptation strategies under an evolutive dam failure risk management framework. This article presents a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on the safety of a Spanish dam under hydrological scenarios, integrating the various projected effects acting on each component of the risk, from the input hydrology to the consequences of the outflow hydrograph. In particular, the results of 21 regional climate models encompassing three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used to calculate the risk evolution of the dam until the end of the 21st century. Results show a progressive deterioration of the dam failure risk, for most of the cases contemplated, especially for the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Moreover, the individual analysis of each risk component shows that the alteration of the expected inflows has the greater influence on the final risk. The approach followed in this paper can serve as a useful guidebook for dam owners and dam safety practitioners in the analysis of other study cases.
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Pisaniello, John D. « Helping farmers and regulators manage and assure the cumulative flood safety of agricultural dams : a cost-effective regionalised review/design tool from Australia ». Hydrology Research 47, no 5 (19 décembre 2015) : 996–1013. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2015.230.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In Australia and other countries, small private dams in agricultural catchments pose both disastrous individual and cumulative dam failure flood threats to downstream communities; threats that can be exacerbated by increased rainfall intensities caused by climate change. This paper addresses the need for a low cost, scientifically acceptable mechanism and policy guidance to help dam owners and governments better understand and manage these risks and assure community safety. To this end an innovative, cost-effective farm dam flood safety review/design tool is developed and tested in Australia, including hydrology-diverse Tasmania, to complement best practice dam safety assurance policy. The tool's development involved generating complex catchment data to represent hydrologically homogenous regions using best practice water engineering methods, to derive simple regionalised dam flood capability prediction relationships of acceptable accuracy. Results demonstrate the tool's successful development and potential transferability to different hydrological regions; how the relationships can be refined by future research and potentially made to account for climate change; and how the tool can be applied within a best practice dam safety assurance policy which includes additional farmer-friendly elements. The findings are potentially transferable to any region to assure communities that cumulative safety threats posed by rural catchment dams are minimised.
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Pandey, Bindhy Wasini, et Abhay Shankar Prasad. « Slope vulnerability, mass wasting and hydrological hazards in himalaya : a case study of Alaknanda Basin, Uttarakhand ». Terrae Didatica 14, no 4 (30 novembre 2018) : 395–404. http://dx.doi.org/10.20396/td.v14i4.8654111.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Himalayan geosystem is highly vulnerable and susceptible to various kinds of Geo-hydrological vulnerability. Anthropogenic activities are continuously disturbing the natural system and its impact on the hydrological behavior of river. The important factor causing a flood and also accelerate several hydrological hazards during monsoon periods are heavy rainfall, cloud burst, GLOF, landslides, Slope failure, deforestation, drainage congestion due to urbanization. The Geospatial technique has been used to find out the relief, slope distribution and landslide hazard zonation and secondary data is taken to carry the analysis work. Primary data from each hotspot has been collected through a questionnaire survey and a Participatory Research Approach (PRA) and Livelihood options, Institutional participation in adaptation policy design and implementation, food security and Empowerment parameters like health and education (LIFE) approach. Present research highlights that most of the slope cutting and construction of roads are parallel to course of rivers, consequently slopes and roads have become highly vulnerable to landslides. Landslides vulnerability is increasing at an alarming rate due to unplanned and uncontrolled construction and other types of tourism based infrastructural development. Alaknanda river basin is an in-route gateway to millions of pilgrimages and religious as well as nature tourism movements. Hence, encroachments of the river side’s and constructions of houses have increased the risk and vulnerability. Study also examines the possible ways to improve the living standards of the local community through ecotourism, sustainable development and disaster risk reduction techniques. This paper also provides various mitigation processes for the challenges faced in the Alaknanda river basin, Uttarakhand and attempts to formulate sustainable development strategy for the development of Alaknanda river basin.
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Rybnikov, Petr, et Alexander Smirnov. « Quality analysis of the Earth remote sensing data in the surface runoff modeling for failure prediction at the tailing dumps ». E3S Web of Conferences 177 (2020) : 06002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202017706002.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The tailing dump operation periodically leads to the failures. A number of failures that have occurred is related to the underestimation of the exposure to atmospheric precipitations (heavy rains, heavy snowmelt, etc.) on the tailings dams. The studies performed during the previous 50 years indicate the need to consider the climate change when calculating both the long-term average and storm runoff and substantiating the engineering solutions in the tailing dump design. The digital elevation models (DEMs) can be used as a basis for solving the problems of hydrological and hydrogeological modeling. Due to the diversity of such models, it is necessary to develop a methodology for its preparation, evaluate the necessary degree of the material post-processing, and determine the time frame for research.