Bibliographies thématiques / Hydrologic flood risk

Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Hydrologic flood risk »

Auteur : Grafiati
Publié le 10 mars 2023

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Hydrologic flood risk"

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Lee, Jin-Young, Ho-Jun Son, Dongwook Kim, Jae-Hee Ryu et Tae-Woong Kim. « Evaluating the Hydrologic Risk of n-Year Floods According to RCP Scenarios ». Water 13, no 13 (29 juin 2021) : 1805. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13131805.

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Recent climate change has brought about irregular rainfall patterns along with an increased frequency of heavy rainfall, and flood damage in Korea is increasing accordingly. The increased rainfall amount and intensity during the rainy season lead to flood damage on a massive scale every year in Korea. In order to reduce such flood damage and secure the stability of hydraulic structures, evaluation of hydrologic risk corresponding to design floods is necessary. As Korea’s current climate change scenarios are generally applied to mid-sized watersheds, there is no practical application method to calculate the hydrologic risk of local floods corresponding to various future climate change scenarios. Using the design flood prediction model, this study evaluated the hydrologic risks of n-year floods according to 13 climate change scenarios. The representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario resulted in the 100-year floods increasing 134.56% on average, and 132.30% in the Han River, 132.81% in the Nakdong River, 142.42% in the Gum River, and 135.47% in the Seomjin-Youngsan River basin, compared with the RCP 4.5. The 100-year floods at the end of the 21st century increased by +3% and +13% according to the RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The corresponding hydrologic flood risk increased by 0.53% and 8.68% on average according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, compared with the current level of hydrologic risk of a 100-year flood.
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Lohani, A. K., Gopal Krishan et Surendra Chandniha. « Hydrological Disasters Management and Risk Assessment ». Current World Environment 12, no 3 (24 décembre 2017) : 520–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/cwe.12.3.05.

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In India, floods and droughts are recurrent hydrological phenomenon causing huge losses to lives, livelihood, properties and infrastructure due to non-uniformly distributed rainfall both in time and space leading to the dimensionally opposite problems of flood and drought in different parts of the country. Out of 3290 lakh hectares geographical area, 40 million hectares is prone to floods which show high risk, vulnerability and is one of the most common hydrologic extremes frequently experienced by our country. On the other hand drought has a varying frequency from once in two years to once in fifteen years. It has been observed that there is flood in one part of country and severe drought in the other part. Various short term and long term measures should be adopted to prevent and mitigate the consequences of floods and drought rather than causing damages and losses due to interfering of the natural processes. In this paper, drought and flood problems in India are highlighted along with some of the important management issues requiring immediate attention. Furthermore, it presents the recently developed non-structural techniques for flood forecasting, flood plain zoning, glacial lake outburst modeling and decision support system.
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Zhang, Qi, Wei Jian et Edmond Yat Man Lo. « Assessment of Flood Risk Exposure for the Foshan-Zhongshan Region in Guangdong Province, China ». Water 12, no 4 (18 avril 2020) : 1159. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12041159.

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Floods have caused 20% of the worldwide economic losses resulting from catastrophe events over 2008 to 2018. In China, the annual flood economic losses have exceeded CNY 100 billion from 1990 to 2010, which is equivalent to 1% to 3% of China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This paper presents a rainfall-runoff model coupled with an inundation estimation to assess the flood risk for a basin within the Foshan-Zhongshan area of the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in China. A Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model was constructed for the crisscrossing river network in the study basin where the West and North Rivers meet, using publicly accessible meteorological, hydrological and topographical datasets. The developed model was used to analyze two recent flood events, that in July 2017 with large upstream river inflows, and in June 2018 with high local rainfall. Results were further used to develop the needed river rating curves within the basin. Two synthetic events that consider more severe meteorological and hydrological conditions were also analyzed. These results demonstrate the capability of the proposed model for quick assessment of potential flood inundation and the GDP exposure at risk within the economically important PRD region.
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Latif, Shahid, et Firuza Mustafa. « Bivariate Hydrologic Risk Assessment of Flood Episodes using the Notation of Failure Probability ». Civil Engineering Journal 6, no 10 (1 octobre 2020) : 2002–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.28991/cej-2020-03091599.

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Floods are becoming the most severe and challenging hydrologic issue at the Kelantan River basin in Malaysia. Flood episodes are usually thoroughly characterized by flood peak discharge flow, volume and duration series. This study incorporated the copula-based methodology in deriving the joint distribution analysis of the annual flood characteristics and the failure probability for assessing the bivariate hydrologic risk. Both the Archimedean and Gaussian copula family were introduced and tested as possible candidate functions. The copula dependence parameters are estimated using the method-of-moment estimation procedure. The Gaussian copula was recognized as the best-fitted distribution for capturing the dependence structure of the flood peak-volume and peak-duration pairs based on goodness-of-fit test statistics and was further employed to derive the joint return periods. The bivariate hydrologic risks of flood peak flow and volume pair, and flood peak flow and duration pair in different return periods (i.e., 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years) were estimated and revealed that the risk statistics incrementally increase in the service lifetime and, at the same instant, incrementally decrease in return periods. In addition, we found that ignoring the mutual dependency can underestimate the failure probabilities where the univariate events produced a lower failure probability than the bivariate events. Similarly, the variations in bivariate hydrologic risk with the changes of flood peak in the different synthetic flood volume and duration series (i.e., 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years return periods) under different service lifetimes are demonstrated. Investigation revealed that the value of bivariate hydrologic risk statistics incrementally increases over the project lifetime (i.e., 30, 50, and 100 years) service time, and at the same time, it incrementally decreases in the return period of flood volume and duration. Overall, this study could provide a basis for making an appropriate flood defence plan and long-lasting infrastructure designs. Doi: 10.28991/cej-2020-03091599 Full Text: PDF
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Jha, Manoj, et Sayma Afreen. « Flooding Urban Landscapes : Analysis Using Combined Hydrodynamic and Hydrologic Modeling Approaches ». Water 12, no 7 (14 juillet 2020) : 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12071986.

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The frequency and severity of floods have been found to increase in recent decades, which have adverse effects on the environment, economics, and human lives. The catastrophe of such floods can be confronted with the advance prediction of floods and reliable analyses methods. This study developed a combined flood modeling system for the prediction of floods, and analysis of associated vulnerabilities on urban infrastructures. The application of the method was tested on the Blue River urban watershed in Missouri, USA, a watershed of historical significance for flood impacts and abundance of data availability for such analyses. The combined modeling system included two models: hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center—River Analysis System) and hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The SWAT model was developed for the watershed to predict time-series hydrograph data at desired locations, followed by the setup of HEC-RAS model for the analysis and prediction of flood extent. Both models were calibrated and validated independently using the observed data. The well-calibrated modeling setup was used to assess the extent of impacts of the hazard by identifying the flood risk zones and threatened critical infrastructures in flood zones through inundation mapping. Results demonstrate the usefulness of such combined modeling systems to predict the extent of flood inundation and thus support analyses of management strategies to deal with the risks associated with critical infrastructures in an urban setting. This approach will ultimately help with the integration of flood risk assessment information in the urban planning process.
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Gabriel, Rosemary Kiama, et Yurui Fan. « Multivariate Hydrologic Risk Analysis for River Thames ». Water 14, no 3 (27 janvier 2022) : 384. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14030384.

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This study analyzed the multivariate flood risk for the river Thames at Kingston based on historical flood data from the National River Flow Archive (NRFA) website. The bivariate risk analysis framework was prepared from the joint return periods of the peak flow (m3/s) and 3-day annual maximum flow (m3/s) flood pair. A total of 137 samples of flood pairs from 1883 to 2019 were adopted for risk analysis. The multivariate return periods were characterized depending on the quantification of the bivariate flood frequency analysis of the pair through copulas methods. The unknown parameter of each copula was estimated using the method-of-moment (MOM) estimator based on Kendall’s tau inversion, in which the Clayton copula performed best to model the dependence of the two flood variables. Then, the bivariate hydrologic risk was characterized based on the joint return period in AND, established from the Clayton copula method. The results reveal that the flood pair would keep a constant hydrologic risk value for some time then moderately decrease as the 3-day AMAX flow increases from 700 m3/s. This hydrologic risk indicator was analyzed under four service time scenarios and three peak flows whose return periods were positioned at 50, 100, and 150 years. The outcomes from the bivariate risk analysis of the flood pairs can be used as decision support during the design of flood defenses and hydraulic facilities.
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Harkat, N., S. Chaouche et M. Bencherif. « Flood Hazard Spatialization Applied to The City of Batna : A Methodological Approach ». Engineering, Technology & ; Applied Science Research 10, no 3 (7 juin 2020) : 5748–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.48084/etasr.3429.

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Flood flows can cause destruction to properties and infrastructure or even cost human lives. Batna is an Algerian city that is highly exposed to the risk of flooding, with an average of one flood every three to four years. The current methods utilized to analyze flood hazards are limited to the hydrology of the watershed. Limiting the analysis of flood hazards could mislead the decision-makers from proper management of such risks. The objective of the current study is to propose a simplified flood hazard model called HEC RAS-DTM (Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC RAS)-Digital Terrain Model (DTM)) and to evaluate it utilizing data gathered from the hydrological context and the hydraulic modeling of Batna city. The model entails two distinct phases. Initially, it attempts to use descriptive statistical methods based mainly on frequency analysis, which consists of studying flood flows in order to determine the probability of future flood occurrence. The analysis of the hydrological context of the city of Batna has revealed that peak flows from stream floods have been predicted at various return periods. Subsequently, HEC RAS was deployed to produce hydraulic modeling in order to extract the water heights and speeds corresponding to these expected flows. These data, along with DTM, are crucial for the spatialization of flood hazards. The hydraulic modeling and simulation using HEC-RAS and Geographic Information System (ArcGIS) of water flow at the two main valleys, Oued Batna and Oued El Gourzi, allowed predicting the extent of flooding that could occupy a large part of the city. The mapping of the flood hazard revealed the sectors that would be most exposed. The results obtained from the suggested model confirm that a significant portion of the city of Batna remains vulnerable to floods in relevance with the predicted flood return periods. The suggested model has indicated significant growth in flood locality. Additionally, the model was proved to be efficient for the analysis of flood flows, and it could easily substitute conventional analysis methods. Further studies or investigations are advised in order to replicate the study in different contexts. The article entails suggestions for properly managing flood risks. Future studies on flood risk alleviation in Batna city could be likewise considered.
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Chai, Fu Xin, Dong Mei Chai, Hui Ran Dai et Shi Feng Huang. « 3D-GIS System Research and Development for Emergency Hydrologic Analysis ». Applied Mechanics and Materials 641-642 (septembre 2014) : 3–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.641-642.3.

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In view of the present situation of frequent flood and drought disaster in China, and lacking of technology for emergency hydrologic monitoring system and emergency response analysis. Face to emergency hydrologic forecast, this paper study on hydrologic information extraction and flood inundation risk emergency, and set up emergency hydrologic analysis system with the function of emergency hydrologic information extraction, flood simulation, flood analysis and hazard evaluation and so on. The system provided technical support and analysis platform for emergency hydrologic monitoring, forecasting and decision making.
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Ghaith, Maysara, Ahmed Yosri et Wael El-Dakhakhni. « Synchronization-Enhanced Deep Learning Early Flood Risk Predictions : The Core of Data-Driven City Digital Twins for Climate Resilience Planning ». Water 14, no 22 (10 novembre 2022) : 3619. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14223619.

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Floods have been among the costliest hydrometeorological hazards across the globe for decades, and are expected to become even more frequent and cause larger devastating impacts in cities due to climate change. Digital twin technologies can provide decisionmakers with effective tools to rapidly evaluate city resilience under projected floods. However, the development of city digital twins for flood predictions is challenging due to the time-consuming, uncertain processes of developing, calibrating, and coupling physics-based hydrologic and hydraulic models. In this study, a flood prediction methodology (FPM) that integrates synchronization analysis and deep-learning is developed to directly simulate the complex relationships between rainfall and flood characteristics, bypassing the computationally expensive hydrologic-hydraulic models, with the City of Calgary being used for demonstration. The developed FPM presents the core of data-driven digital twins that, with real-time sensor data, can rapidly provide early warnings before flood realization, as well as information about vulnerable areas—enabling city resilience planning considering different climate change scenarios.
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Udom, Nuon, Istiarto Istiarto et Adam Pamudji Rahardjo. « Evaluation of Flood Risk Reduction Project at Tenggang River, Semarang City, Central Java Province, Indonesia ». Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum 4, no 2 (13 mai 2018) : 159. http://dx.doi.org/10.22146/jcef.34035.

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Evaluation of flood risk reduction at Tenggang River is needed to reduce the urban and coastal flood from high-intensity rainfall and sea level rise. This paper mainly discusses rainfall frequency analysis, simulation of hydraulic structure performed by HEC-RAS 5.0.3, and the proposed alternative flood mitigation for 25-year flood return period. Hydrology and hydraulic was analyzed to investigate the flooding risk. The result of simulation illustrated the improvement channel condition by normalization the riverbed and the increase of levee to solve flood inundation at Tenggang River using the designated flood return period (25 years of return period, Q25 = 119 m3/s). The result of simulation showed that the hydrologic-hydraulic modeling is acceptable compared to the report from the office of public work in Semarang City.
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Thèses sur le sujet "Hydrologic flood risk"

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Smemoe, Christopher M. « Floodplain Risk Analysis Using Flood Probability and Annual Exceedance Probability Maps ». Diss., CLICK HERE for online access, 2004. http://contentdm.lib.byu.edu/ETD/image/etd379.pdf.

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Benini, Rubens de Miranda. « Cenários de ocupação urbana e seus impactos no ciclo hidrológico na bacia do córrego do Mineirinho ». Universidade de São Paulo, 2005. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/18/18139/tde-08112005-195241/.

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Este trabalho teve por objetivo principal estabelecer e comparar diferentes cenários de ocupação urbana e seus efeitos no ciclo hidrológico. Buscou-se avaliar os riscos de enchentes à jusante, causados pelo crescimento urbano e aumento das áreas de impermeabilização que ocorrerão com a implantação do novo campus da USP – São Carlos – SP e a conseqüente ocupação da bacia devido à especulação imobiliária. Dessa forma, a bacia do córrego do Alto Mineirinho foi dividida em sub-bacias, utilizando a abordagem de bacias embutidas. Foram estudados 4 cenários de ocupação urbana: cenário pré-urbanização (1972); cenário atual (2000), cenário 2025 com plano diretor (CPD) que inclui recuperação ambiental; e cenário 2025 sem plano diretor (SPD). Foram necessárias aerofotografias para demarcação do uso e ocupação do solo. Além disso, esse trabalho iniciou o monitoramento experimental de parâmetros hidrológicos e ambientais. Para avaliação e comparação dos diferentes cenários realizaram-se simulações hidrológicas com uso do modelo hidrológico IPH II. Com as análises hidrológicas foi possível verificar que a bacia, com apenas 18,6 % de urbanização (2000), apresenta qualidade hídrica inferior à recomendada para os corpos d’água classe 2 (CONAMA 357/05). Em relação às simulações hidrológicas, pôde-se observar que no cenário 2025 SPD, a vazão máxima cresceu 388,0 % quando comparada ao cenário 1972 e 319,4 % quando comparada ao cenário 2000. Entre os cenários 2025 CPD e 2025 SPD há diminuição de 22,3 % na vazão máxima e o aumento no tempo de pico é de 50 minutos. Porém, os riscos de enchente, analisados pelo método de curvas de permanência, mostraram-se que mesmo com aplicação de diretrizes do PD os riscos de inundações continuam altos, o que indica a necessidade de integrar medidas estruturais e medidas não-estruturais para amenizar os efeitos de enchentes à jusante
This work aims to establish and to compare different scenarios of urban occupation and its hydrologic effects. It evaluates downstream flood risks caused from upstream urban growth increased due to impervious areas and housing speculation surrounding the implantation of the new campus of University of Sao Paulo in Sao Carlos city, SP. The Mineirinho river basin was studied through nested sub-basin approach. Four scenarios of urban occupation have been depicted: pre-urbanization (year 1972), current situation (year 2000), prospective scenario with master plan (until year 2025; CPD), and expected situation without master plan (until year 2025; SPD). Aerial photos were used to help on the evolution of land occupation between past and current situation. The comparison of different scenarios was outlined with use of hydrologic model IPH II. Moreover, this work set the monitoring and record of hydrologic time series. Through experimental analyses it was verified that with 18,6 % of urban areas the water quality of sub-basins decreased significantly. Hydrologic modeling simulations showed that maximum streamflow discharges of scenario 2025 SPD would rise up to 388,0 % higher than scenario 1972 and 319,4 % higher than scenario 2000 respectively. Maximum stream discharges and peak timing of scenario with master plan of year 2025 (CPD) would have respectively a reduction of 22,3 % and a increase of 50 minutes in comparison to scenario without master plan of year 2025 (SPD). Permanency curves revealed with the application of master plan guidelines flood risks however continue high, thereby pointing the needs of integrate structural and non-structural measures to cope with floods downstream
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Mohammed, Abdel-Fattah Sayed Soliman. « Integrated Hydro-geomorphological Approach to Flash Flood Risk Assessment and Mitigation Strategies in Wadi Systems ». Kyoto University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/227604.

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Dixon, Simon. « Investigating the effects of large wood and forest management on flood risk and flood hydrology ». Thesis, University of Southampton, 2013. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/365560/.

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The changes to catchment scale flood risk following river restoration works, including the addition of large wood logjams to the channel, are poorly quantified in the literature. Key concerns following river restoration for river managers and other stakeholders are changes to flood hydrology at the reach and catchment scale and changes in the mobility of large wood pieces. The effects of accumulations of large wood (logjams) on local flood hydrology have been documented in the literature, showing logjams slow flood wave travel time and increase the duration and extent of local overbank inundation. Modelling studies conducted at a reach scale have shown that these local effects can slow flood wave travel time through a reach and delay the timing of flood peak discharge at the reach outflow. How these local and reach scale effects translate to the catchment scale remains to be illustrated in the literature. In this thesis a combination of field and modelling studies are used to; elucidate the link between logjam form and function, to quantify the mobility of pieces of large wood relative to their physical characteristics, to predict the changes in floodplain forest restoration over time and to provide predictions of changes to catchment scale flood hydrology following river restoration at a range of scales and locations. It is shown that logjams inducing a step in the water profile are most effective at creating diverse geomorphology and habitats. Logjams were found to account for 65% of flow resistance in forested river channels, rising to 75-98% of flow resistance where the logjam was inducing a step in the water profile. Large wood in small forested river channels was found to be highly mobile with 75% of pieces moving, with the longest transport length of 5.6km. Large wood mobility is governed primarily by the length of a piece of wood with wood in excess of 1.5x channel width a threshold for a lower probability of movement. Hydrological modelling using OVERFLOW shows that reach scale river restoration can lead to modest changes in catchment scale flood hydrology. It is concluded that flood risk management can incorporate river restoration, but that results are likely to be unpredictable if engineered logjams are used alone. Substantial benefits in reducing catchment outflow peak discharge (up to 5% reduction) are modelled for floodplain forest restoration at the sub-catchment scale (10-15% of catchment area), rising to up to 10% reductions as the forest matures and becomes more complex.
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Ghani, Abdul Aziz Abdul. « Spectral estimation of flood risks ». Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1988. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.360137.

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A model for estimating seasonal flood risks which uses flow readings which are equally spaced in time is presented in this thesis. The model is referred to as the Spectral Model. This model can be used to estimate the probability of at least 1 exceedance of given critical levels. The model is based on the Rice distribution for peaks of a Gaussian stochastic process, whose parameters are associated with the spectral moments of the process. In the simpler form of the model, peaks are assumed independent. Simulation results obtained using realisation of Gaussian AR(1) processes indicated that the estimates of the risks using Spectral Model are less biased than those obtained from the EV1 and the POT Model, especially for higher critical levels. A modification which removes the assumption that peaks are independent using the multi-fold integrals of Gupta and Moran is also considered. Gupta's method assumes that the correlation between peaks at any lag are equal to the first autocorrelation. The Monte Carlo simulation of Moran has no such restriction on the autocorrelations but may not converge. The Model was applied to River Greta, a small catchment in County Durham in the North of England.
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Atan, Ismail Bin. « Stochastic modelling of streamflow for predicting seasonal flood risk ». Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.242379.

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Hydrological time series are often asymmetric in time, insomuch as rises are more rapid than recessions, as well as having highly skewed marginal distributions. A two-stage transformation is proposed for deseasonalised daily average flow series. Rises are stretched, and recessions are squashed until the series is symmetric over time. An autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is then fitted to the natural logarithms of this new series The residuals from the ARMA model are represented by Weibull distributions. Seasonal flood risks, as daily average flows, are estimated by simulation. However, floods are often measured as peak flows rather than daily average flows, although both measures are relevant, and the use of growth factors to allow for this is demonstrated. The method is demonstrated with 24 years of daily flows from River Cherwell in the south of England, a 40-years record from the upper reaches of the Thames and 21-years record from the River Coquet in the north-east of England. Seasonal estimates of flood risk are given, and these can be conditioned on catchment wetness at the time of prediction. Comparisons with other methods which allow for time irreversibility are also made. One is ARMA models with exogenous input, in this case rainfall, which will, because of its intermittent nature, impact a natural time irreversibility to the streamflow series. A disadvantage of these models is that they require rainfall data in addition to the streamflow record. A second is the development of a class of shot noise models, which naturally generate highly time irreversibility series. This is the Neyman-Scott model. But, despite its attractive physical interpretation it is inevitably less flexible than the two stage transformation because it has fewer parameters. Although it was found to provide a good fit to daily data it is less convincing for the extremes. Overall the two stage transformation (TST) compared favourably with both models.
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Miranda, Olga Lopes. « Comparação dos modelos hidráulicos HEC-RAS e LISFLOOD-FP na avaliação do risco de inundação num troço do rio Lis ». Master's thesis, Universidade de Évora, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10174/15037.

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A avaliação do risco de inundação surge como medida de mitigação da vulnerabilidade da comunidade à ocorrência de eventos hidrológicos extremos. Os objectivos principais do presente estudo são a apresentação e âmbito de aplicação de seis modelos hidráulicos, disponíveis no mercado, e a comparação da aplicação dos modelos LISFLOOD-FP e HEC-RAS na avaliação do risco de inundação, num troço de 4 km do Rio Lis, entre a ponte de Miguel e a ponte da Bajanca. Na aplicação ao troço do Rio Lis foi efectuada a caracterização fisiográfica da bacia hidrográfica, com recurso aos sistemas de informação geográfica. No cálculo do caudal centenário aplicou-se o modelo hidrológico HEC-HMS. Após a preparação dos dados de entrada nos modelos escolhidos foram obtidas as zonas inundáveis para o troço em estudo e comparados os resultados. A avaliação do risco de inundação efectuada teve em atenção os termos do Decreto-Lei n.º 115/2010, de 22 de Outubro; ABSTRACT:Flood risk assessment comes up as a mitigation measure of the community vulnerability to the occurrence of extreme hydrological events. The main aims of the current study are the presentation and scope of six hydraulic models available in the market and the comparison of application of the models LISFLOOD-FP and HEC-RAS in a 4 km reach of the River Lis, between bridge of Miguel and bridge of Bajanca. It was made a description of the physiographic features of the River Lis watershed with the support of geographic information systems. To estimate the discharge for a storm event of 100 years it was applied the model HEC-HMS. After preparing the input data of the two models the delineation of the study area was obtained and the results were compared. The flood risk assessment took into account the terms of Portuguese law.
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Fridolf, Tina. « Dam safety in a hydrological perspective-Case study of the historical water system of Sala Silver Mine ». Licentiate thesis, KTH, Land and Water Resources Engineering, 2004. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-1780.

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The old water system in Sala, formerly belonging to thesilver mine, is analysed with regard to dam safety focusing onthe hydrological aspects. The hydrological safety of the riskclass I dams in the area, built in the 16th century, is notconsidered adequate according to the Swedish guidelines fordesign flood determination. A review is made of internationalprinciples for design flood determination. The overview showsthat there is no common principle used internationally whendealing with design flood for dams. In some countries there isan ambition to implement risk assessment for evaluation ofhydrological safety. However, at present Australia is the onlycountry that has fully integrated risk assessment in theirdesign flood guidelines. A risk assessment of the water systemin Sala shows that neither increasing the spillway capacity norimplementing flood mitigation measures in the watershed haveany significant effect on dam safety in the area. Nothingindicates that watersheds with a high presence of mires, likein the Sala case, should be particularly well suited forimplementing flood mitigation in the watershed as a dam safetymeasure. In order to safely handle the design flood in Sala andavoid dam failure due to overtopping the flood needs to bediverted from the water system.

Key words:dam safety; design flood; flood mitigation;hydrological; risk assessment

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Thorsteinsson, Russell. « WATER CONTAMINATION RISK DURING URBAN FLOODS : Using GIS to map and analyze risk at a local scale ». Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Avdelningen för Industriell utveckling, IT och Samhällsbyggnad, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-18183.

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Water contamination during urban flood events can have a negative impact on human health and the environment. Prior flood studies lack investigation into how GIS can map and analyze this at a large scale (cadastral) level. This  thesis  focused on how GIS can  help map and analyze water contamination risk in urban  areas  using  LiDAR  elevation  data,  at  a  large-scale  (cadastral)  level,  and  symbology  and  flood classification  intervals  specifically  selected  for  contamination  risk.  This  was  done  by  first  completing a literature review about past research and studies  of similar scope. Based on  the findings, a method to map and analyze water contamination risk during sea-based flood scenarios was tested in the Näringen district of Gävle, Sweden. This study area was investigated and flood contamination risk maps were produced  for two different  flood scenarios which illustrated  which properties are vulnerable to flooding and at what depth, what their contamination risk is, and if they are hydrologically connected to the ocean.  The findings from this investigation  are that this method of examining water contamination risk could be useful to planning officials who are in charge of policies relating to land-use. These findings could help guide landuse  or  hazardous  material  storage  regulations  or  restrictions.  To  further  research  in  this  topic,  it  is recommended  that  similar  studies  are  performed  that  use  a  more  detailed  land-use  map  which  has information  on  what  type  and  quantity  of  possible  contaminants  are  stored  on  individual  properties. Furthermore, flood modeling should be employed in place of the flood mapping which was conducted in this thesis.
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Bastviken, Paulina. « Flood Risk Mapping in Africa : Exploring the Potentials and Limitations of SRTM Data in the Lower Limpopo, Mozambique ». Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-303910.

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Many regions in Africa are presently faced with an increasing flood risk due to impending climate change and population growth. One useful mitigation strategy to decrease this risk would be to map it, so that urban planning, warnings systems and emergency response subsequently could be designed to reduce societal vulnerability. This is, however, not widely feasible on the African continent, as developing countries often lack access to the topography and discharge data required to produce high- quality flood risk maps. To seek a way around this problem, on-going research is investigating the possibility of obtaining alternative model inputs, by using global datasets of elevation, derived from remote sensing, and methods to estimate flood flows. This thesis presents a case study within this context where the aim was to determine the accuracy of an African catchment-scale flood map, produced with the satellite product SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) as topography input, and to explore the potentials and limitations of such a model scheme. Two high-magnitude floods, occurring in year 2000 and 2013 in the Lower Limpopo Basin (Mozambique), were modelled for inundation extent, using a no-channel 2D model built for the LISFLOOD-FP flood modelling software. Flood water levels were also simulated to assess the models vertical performance. Model outcomes were evaluated against satellite imagery and recordings of high watermarks, adjusting the value representing the roughness of the floodplain to optimize flood extent correspondence. Due to different hydrograph dynamics, simulations of the two floods required different values of roughness (0.02 and 0.09 s m-1/3) to reach maximum accuracy (F = 0.59 and 0.64, respectively). However, the results also indicated that a model calibrated with a flood of relatively low return period potentially could be used to map rare flood events. Simulation inaccuracies were mainly attributed to (1) reservoirs and streams, temporarily connecting to the river system during high flow conditions, (2) limitations of the topography data, in terms of recognizing riverbed geometry and floodplain micro-topography, and (3) cloud cover, reducing the accuracy of flood extent reference data. The vertical simulation accuracy, with an average error of ± 2 m, was well within the uncertainty bounds of input data. Errors were in this case ascribed the SRTM’s representation of high slope terrain and possible radar speckles in urban areas. The findings of this study indicate that there is high potential in using SRTM data for mapping of high-magnitude flood risk in Africa, but also that consideration to river system complexity is crucial.
Många  områden  i  Afrika  står  för  närvarande  inför  en  ökad  översvämningsrisk  på  grund  avklimatförändringar och befolkningstillväxt. En användbar strategi att minska denna risk skulle vara att kartlägga den, så att stadsplanering, varningssystem och respons vid nödsituationer därefter skulle kunna utformas till att begränsa samhällets sårbarhet. Detta är dock inte möjligt på bred front över Afrikas kontinent, då utvecklingsländer ofta saknar det data av topografi och vattenflöde som behövs för producera högkvalitativa översvämningsriskkartor. För att försöka hitta ett sätt att kringgå detta problem undersöker pågående forskning möjligheten att generera alternativ modelleringsinput, från globalt tillgängligt höjddata, insamlat av satelliter, och metoder att uppskatta översvämningsflöden. Denna uppsats presenterar en fallstudie inom denna kontext där syftet var att bestämma kvalitén hos en översvämningskarta över ett Afrikanskt avrinningsområde, producerad med satellitprodukten SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) som topografiinput, och att utforska möjligheterna och begränsningarna med en sådan karteringsmodell. Två stora översvämningar, vilka inträffade år 2000 och 2013 i Nedre Limpopobassängen (Mocambique), simulerades för utbredning med hjälp av en 2D- model utan flodfåra byggd för modelleringsprogrammet LISFLOOD-FP. Vattennivåer simulerade också för att kunna bedöma modellens vertikala prestation. Resultaten jämfördes med satellitbilder och dokumenterade höga vattenmärken (observerade på t ex. husfasader), samtidigt som flodplanets flödesmotstånd justerades för att optimera överensstämmelsen. Då översvämningarna var av olika karaktär behövdes olika flödesmotstånd (0.02 and 0.09 s m-1/3) för att maximal kvalité på respektive översvämningskarta skulle uppnås. Denna kvalité beräknades till 0.59 och 0.64, på en index-skala (F) där 1.00 motsvarar en perfekt simulering. Trots olika optimala flödesmotstånd antydde resultaten även att en modell kalibrerad med en relativt frekvent återkommande översvämning möjligtvis kan användas till att kartlägga sällsynta översvämningar. Avvikelserna mellan dokumenterad och simulerad översvämningsutbredning tillskrevs i huvudsak: (1) sjöar och vattendrag som temporärt ansluter till flodsystemet under höga flöden, (2) begränsningar i topografidatat gällande att fånga flodens geometri och flodplanets mikro-topografi samt (3) moln som skymmer översvämningarna i referensdatat och minskar dess sanningshalt. Vattennivåer simulerades med ett genomsnittligt fel av±2 m, vilket med marginal ligger inom inputdatats totala osäkerhetsram. Avvikelserna troddes i detta fall bero på SRTM-datats representation av sluttande terräng och möjliga radarfläckar (reflektioner) i urbana områden. Resultaten i denna studie indikerar att det ligger stor potential i att använda SRTM- data för att kartlägga risken för stora översvämningar i Afrika, men belyser också vikten av attuppmärksamhet ges till flodsystems komplexitet.
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Livres sur le sujet "Hydrologic flood risk"

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International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses (1986 Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge). Hydrologic frequency modeling : Proceedings of the International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses, 14-17 May 1986, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, U.S.A. Dordrecht : D. Reidel Pub. Co., 1987.

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Simonović, Slobodan P. Floods in a changing climate : Risk management. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2012.

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Frequency and risk analyses in hydrology. Littleton, Colo., U.S.A : Water Resources Publications, 1988.

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Kelln, Duane E. Assiniboine River at Brandon flood risk : Computation of the 100 year flood discharge. Winnipeg, Man : Manitoba Water Stewardship, 2006.

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5

Vecchia, Aldo V. Climate simulation and flood risk analysis for 2008-40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota. Reston, Va : U.S. Geological Survey, 2008.

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European Commission. Directorate-General XII, Science, Research, and Development. Floodaware final report : Programme Climate and environment 1994-1998, area 2.3.1, hydrological and hydrogeological risks, contract ENV4-CT96-0293. Antony : Cemagref Editions, 2000.

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Schumann, Anne. Flood Risk Assessment and Management : How to Specify Hydrological Loads, Their Consequences and Uncertainties. Dordrecht : Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2011.

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International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses (1986 Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge). Flood hydrology : Proceedings of the International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses, 14-17 May 1986, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, U.S.A. Dordrecht : D. Reidel Pub. Co., 1987.

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Singh, V. P. Hydrologic Frequency Modeling : Proceedings of the International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses, 14–17 May 1986, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, U.S.A. Springer, 2012.

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P, Singh V. Hydrologic Frequency Modeling : Proceedings of the International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses, 14-17 May 1986, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, U. S. A. Springer London, Limited, 2012.

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Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Hydrologic flood risk"

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Correia, Francisco Nunes. « Multivariate Partial Duration Series in Flood Risk Analysis ». Dans Hydrologic Frequency Modeling, 541–54. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3953-0_38.

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Chow, K. C. Ander, Deborah H. Lee et David Fay. « Hydrologic Impact of Regulation Scenarios on Flood Risk Levels on the Great Lakes ». Dans Stochastic and Statistical Methods in Hydrology and Environmental Engineering, 245–58. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3081-5_18.

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Kreibich, Heidi, et Nivedita Sairam. « Dynamic Flood Risk Modelling in Human–Flood Systems ». Dans Springer Climate, 95–103. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4_12.

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AbstractEffective flood risk management is highly relevant for advancing climate change adaptation. It needs to be based on risk modelling that considers the dynamics, complex interactions and feedbacks in human–flood systems. In this regard, we review recent advancements in understanding, quantifying and modelling changes in risk and its drivers. A challenge for integrating human behaviour in dynamic risk assessments and modelling is the combined consideration of qualitative and quantitative data. Advancements in this respect are (1) the compilation and analysis of comprehensive qualitative and quantitative data on flood risk changes in case studies following the paired event concept; (2) the integration of qualitative and quantitative data into socio-hydrological models using Bayesian inference; and (3) the coupling of hydrological flood risk models with behaviour models in socio-hydrological modelling systems. We recommend to further develop these approaches and use more such process-based, dynamic modelling also for large-scale flood risk analyses. These approaches are increasingly feasible due to significant improvements in computational power and data science.
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Schumann, Andreas H. « Introduction – Hydrological Aspects of Risk Management ». Dans Flood Risk Assessment and Management, 1–10. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9917-4_1.

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Austin, Geoff, Barney Austin, Luke Sutherland-Stacey et Paul Shucksmith. « Coupling Meteorological and Hydrological Models for Real-Time Flood Forecasting ». Dans Flood Risk Science and Management, 196–207. Oxford, UK : Wiley-Blackwell, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781444324846.ch10.

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Icyimpaye, Gisele, et Chérifa Abdelbaki. « GIS-Based Hydrological and Hydraulic Models to Forecast River Flood Risks and Proposition of Management Measures ». Dans Spatial Modelling of Flood Risk and Flood Hazards, 143–59. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-94544-2_9.

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Neal, Jeffrey. « Recent Innovations in Flood Hazard Modelling Over Large Data Sparse Regions ». Dans Springer Climate, 121–27. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4_15.

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AbstractThis opinion piece summarises recent progress in the development of global flood models (GFMs) in support of flood impact modelling and identifies potential areas for model improvement over the next 5–10 years. In many parts of the world, flood hazard data are absent or lack the accuracy and precision required for most practical applications, including climate change impact assessment. With the hydrological cycle expected to intensify due to climate change, better modelling of flood hazard is needed as a prerequisite to understanding how flood risk might change in the future with climate. The past decade has seen substantial advances in the modelling of flood inundation in data scarce areas along with the emergence of global flood models that could form the foundation of global impact assessments. In summarising these advances, four key themes emerge linked to topography, extreme flow estimation, river network parameterisation and numerical modelling of inundation. Progress in each of these themes will be needed to deliver the next generation of global flood hazard data.
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Vargas, Rafael B., et Philippe Gourbesville. « Deterministic Hydrological Model for Flood Risk Assessment of Mexico City ». Dans Advances in Hydroinformatics, 59–73. Singapore : Springer Singapore, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-287-615-7_5.

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Futter, Martyn. « Commentary : A (Mostly) Hydrological Commentary on the Small Retention Programs in the Polish Forests ». Dans Nature-Based Flood Risk Management on Private Land, 39–43. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-23842-1_4.

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Pacheco, Dina, Sandra Mendes et Raquel Cymbron. « Azores Assessment and Management of Flood Risks ». Dans Advances in Natural Hazards and Hydrological Risks : Meeting the Challenge, 133–36. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-34397-2_26.

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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Hydrologic flood risk"

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Pol, Joost, Hermjan Barneveld, Ralph Schielen, Guus Rongen et Joost Stenfert. « Effectiveness of flood retention basins under hydrologic uncertainty ». Dans FLOODrisk 2020 - 4th European Conference on Flood Risk Management. Online : Budapest University of Technology and Economics, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3311/floodrisk2020.12.8.

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Balabanova, Snezhanka, Silviya Stoyanova, Vesela Stoyanova, Georgy Koshinchanov et Valeriya Yordanova. « HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING AND ACTIVITIES IN BULGARIA IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE DAREFFORT PROJECT ». Dans 22nd SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference 2022. STEF92 Technology, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgem2022/3.1/s12.13.

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Floods are the most frequent and widespread natural disasters worldwide (WMO, 2013). In 2006 for instance, exceptionally high river levels caused loss of lives and considerable economic losses in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania. Thus risk prevention strategies were reconsidered and the need for common solutions for the Danubian countries was outlined. Non-structural measures to mitigate flood risk as is the improvement of forecasting capabilities on a basin-wide scale are known to be highly effective. The DAREFFORT project is a horizontal initiative to implement a flood risk mitigation measure in a joint and sustainable way on catchment level. The main output was the Danube Region Enhanced Flood Forecasting Cooperation that was a step towards creating the basis of ICPDR Danube Hydrologic Information System (HIS). This was only reached through a standardized data format utilized by the responsible national organizations and improved data exchange between the participating countries as reliable and comprehensive hydrologic data is the basis of sound forecasting in any country. In this paper the Bulgarian experience and contribution to the DAREFFORT project is presented. This study is aimed at overviewing the present status of the national forecasting capabilities and main topics are the process of the hydrological forecasting, data flow, data processing and data exchange.
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Zlatunova, Daniela. « FLOOD FORMATION MECHANISM OF THE DEVASTATING FLOOD IN THE TOWN OF SVILENGRAD, REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA IN JUN� 2012 ». Dans 22nd SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference 2022. STEF92 Technology, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgem2022/2.1/s11.46.

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The purpose of the paper is to clarify the formation mechanism of the devastating flood in the town of Svilengrad, in the Republic of Bulgaria, in June 2012. The systemic approach is used to analyze flood formation mechanisms and improve under-standing of the complex interactions between the factors determining the formation and manifestation of floods. The spatial analysis method takes a central place in the examination of the flood formation mechanisms, using GIS as a tool for analysis. Hydraulic model for the 9 km long river section has been adapted and for this purpose a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) has been generated. Taking into account the specifics of the riverbed and the results of previous research on the design and investment process in the river area, a one-dimensional model is applied (Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System, version 5.0.3, developed by the US Corps of Military Engineers) to determine the flooded areas during the flood. The main result of the study is the clarified flood formation mechanism in the town of Svilengrad, which occurred on 06.02.2012. Information on the flood formation mechanism is of particular importance for the institutions responsible for flood risk assessment and management. It will allow them to formulate adequate measures for reduction of the floods risk in this part of the Maritsa River. The popularization of the results of the survey among the population of Svilengrad is a prerequisite for raising its awareness and preparedness for a more adequate response in case of a new disaster/flood.
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Zhang, Jing, Linrui Song, Fan Feng et Huili Gong. « Hydrologic information extraction for flood disaster risk assessment in Pearl River Basin and Luan River Basin, China ». Dans 2011 19th International Conference on Geoinformatics. IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/geoinformatics.2011.5981166.

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Yordanova, Valeriya, Silviya Stoyanova, Snezhanka Balabanova, Georgy Koshinchanov et Vesela Stoyanova. « FLASH FLOOD FORECASTING USING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SYSTEM PRODUCTS ». Dans 22nd SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference 2022. STEF92 Technology, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgem2022/3.1/s12.11.

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Flash floods are defined as rapidly developing extreme events caused by heavy or excessive amounts of rainfall. Flash floods usually occur over a relatively small area within six hours or less of the extreme event with quite a rapid streamflow rise and fall. Increased occurrence of flash flood events is expected due to climate change and increase in extreme precipitation events [1]. Flash flood forecasting is still a challenge for hydrologists and water professionals due to the complex nature of the event itself. Besides having sufficient background in hydrological and meteorological forecasting as well as information about local conditions yet an adequate approach for flash flood forecasting is needed. The Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) is widely recognized for enhancing the capacity to issue timely and accurate flash flood warnings by providing hydrological and meteorological forecasters with real-time information and products. FFGS is based on global data as well as national hydrometeorological data and analyses. In this paper the use of the Black Sea Middle East Flash Flood Guidance System (BSMEFFGS) products for flash flood forecasting by the hydrologists at the Hydrological Forecasting department at the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (NIMH) in Bulgaria is presented. An overview of the FFGS for Bulgaria with closer attention paid to the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG), Flash Flood Risk (FFR) and the Flash Flood Threat Products is introduced. Two case studies are also presented � a flash flood in the town of Shumen and another one in the area of the village of Popovitsa on September 28th 2015.
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Barry, Jeff, Rafael G. Mora et Brian Carlin. « An Approach for Prioritizing Pipeline Water Crossings (WC) for Effective Mitigation and Monitoring ». Dans 2014 10th International Pipeline Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2014-33656.

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This paper provides an approach for assessing and classifying riverine pipeline crossings to prioritize effective mitigation and monitoring. These processes require understanding of and accounting for channel processes, river dynamics, geomorphic principals and soil mechanics to estimate bed scour and bank erosion degradation mechanisms at water crossings and their potential effects on the pipeline. The intent of this paper is to share generic experiences in ranking water crossings based on their susceptibility to and identification of integrity threats under multiple existing and future hydrologic scenarios causing potential for pipeline exposure, spanning or damage. The intent is not to present or provide an analysis or review of the various methods for estimating channel bed or bank erosion. The details of such calculations are highly site specific and a variety of both qualitative and quantitative methods can be applied depending upon available site data, and as such, are outside the scope of the work presented here. Pipelines are static features within a dynamic environment with rivers and floodplains representing some of the most active areas within a landscape. Rivers can change course, migrate, deepen, and widen slowly over time or suddenly during large flood events. These hydrologic effects can impact existing pipelines thereby putting pipelines at risk for damage or failure. Understanding how rivers alter the landscape and transport water and sediment from the mountains to the sea provides a framework for realizing the potential toll that riverine changes can have on pipeline infrastructure. Further, integrating analysis of how rivers at specific pipeline crossing locations are likely to change can increase the effectiveness in protecting the environment during the design, construction, operation and integrity management of pipelines at river crossings. The paper provides an approach comprised of five (5) stages: 1. WC Inventory and Desktop Data Gathering 2. Screening Process: Preliminary WC Classification 3. Detailed Assessment 4. Final WC Classification, Prioritization, and Risk Assessment 5. Development of Mitigation and Monitoring Strategies This paper also presents two (2) case studies illustrating how assessing the geomorphic condition and processes of the river system being crossed by pipelines provides for a better understanding of susceptibility to existing hydro-geotechnical threats to the pipeline as well as the susceptibility for flood-related forces in the future. The first case study illustrates how changes to a river’s cross section as a result of construction activities upstream of a pipeline water crossing can cause significant and potentially damaging impacts, downstream. The second case study reinforces the importance of understanding the history of watershed and channel changes over time, both at the specific water crossing location, but also both upstream and downstream from the crossing itself to be able to identify and understand all potential threats to pipelines located within rivers and floodplains. A method for assessing and classifying the magnitude and probability of flood related risk at each case study is discussed. These cases are presented as generic examples for educational purposes only as every pipeline has its own specific characteristics conditions with jurisdiction-specific regulatory requirements requiring process customization and enhancements.
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McEwen, Lindsey, Franz Krause, Joanne Hanson et Owain Jones. « Flood histories, flood memories and informal flood knowledge in the development of community resilience to future flood risk ». Dans BHS 11th National Hydrology symposium. British Hydrological Society, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.7558/bhs.2012.ns34.

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Álvarez, César, Eduardo García, Jorge Rojo, Beatriz Tejerina, Cristina Prieto et David Fariña. « A simple conceptual model for coupled hydrological-hydraulic simulation in large basins with significant flood-propagation effects. » Dans FLOODrisk 2020 - 4th European Conference on Flood Risk Management. Online : Budapest University of Technology and Economics, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3311/floodrisk2020.17.6.

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McIntyre, Neil. « The potential for reducing flood risk through changes to rural land management : outcomes from the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium ». Dans BHS 11th National Hydrology symposium. British Hydrological Society, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.7558/bhs.2012.ns36.

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Heron, E., R. Chadderton et S. Surrendran. « Future research needs in flood hydrology for flood risk management ». Dans BHS 3rd International Conference. British Hydrological Society, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.7558/bhs.2010.ic28.

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Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Hydrologic flood risk"

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Giovando, Jeremy, Chandler Engel, Steven Daly, Michael Warner, Daniel Hamill et Evan Heisman. Wintertime snow and precipitation conditions in the Willow Creek watershed above Ririe Dam, Idaho. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), mai 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/40479.

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The Ririe Dam and Reservoir project is located on Willow Creek near Idaho Falls, Idaho, and is important for flood risk reduction and water supply. The current operating criteria is based on fully storing a large winter runoff event. These winter runoff events are generally from large storm events, termed atmospheric rivers, which produce substantial precipitation. In addition to the precipitation, enhanced runoff is produced due to frozen soil and snowmelt. However, the need for additional water supply by local stakeholders has prompted the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to seek to better understand the current level of flood risk reduction provided by Ririe Dam and Reservoir. Flood risk analysis using hydrologic modeling software requires quantification of the probability for all of the hydrometeorologic inputs. Our study develops the precipitation, SWE, and frozen ground probabilities that are required for the hydrologic modeling necessary to quantify the current winter flood risk.
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Howard, Adam, Jang Pak, David May, Stanford Gibson, Chris Haring, Brian Alberto et Michael Haring. Approaches for assessing riverine scour. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), mai 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/40702.

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Calculating scour potential in a stream or river is as much a geomorphological art as it is an exact science. The complexity of stream hydraulics and heterogeneity of river-bed materials makes scour predictions in natural channels uncertain. Uncertain scour depths near high-hazard flood-risk zones and flood-risk management structures lead to over-designed projects and difficult flood-risk management decisions. This Regional Sediment Management technical report presents an approach for estimating scour by providing a decision framework that future practitioners can use to compute scour potential within a riverine environment. This methodology was developed through a partnership with the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Hydrologic Engineering Center, and St. Paul District in support of the Lower American River Contract 3 project in Sacramento, CA.
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Perera, Duminda, Ousmane Seidou, Jetal Agnihotri, Mohamed Rasmy, Vladimir Smakhtin, Paulin Coulibaly et Hamid Mehmood. Flood Early Warning Systems : A Review Of Benefits, Challenges And Prospects. United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health, août 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.53328/mjfq3791.

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Floods are major water-related disasters that affect millions of people resulting in thousands of mortalities and billiondollar losses globally every year. Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) - one of the floods risk management measures - are currently operational in many countries. The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction recognises their importance and strongly advocates for an increase in their availability under the targets of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, despite widespread recognition of the importance of FEWS for disaster risk reduction (DRR), there’s a lack of information on their availability and status around the world, their benefits and costs, challenges and trends associated with their development. This report contributes to bridging these gaps by analyzing the responses to a comprehensive online survey with over 80 questions on various components of FEWS (risk knowledge, monitoring and forecasting, warning dissemination and communication, and response capabilities), investments into FEWS, their operational effectiveness, benefits, and challenges. FEWS were classified as technologically “basic”, “intermediate” and “advanced” depending on the existence and sophistication of FEWS` components such as hydrological data = collection systems, data transfer systems, flood forecasting methods, and early warning communication methods. The survey questionnaire was distributed to flood forecasting and warning centers around the globe; the primary focus was developing and least-developed countries (LDCs). The questionnaire is available here: https://inweh.unu.edu/questionnaireevaluation-of-flood-early-warning-systems/ and can be useful in its own right for similar studies at national or regional scales, in its current form or with case-specific modifications. Survey responses were received from 47 developing (including LDCs) and six developed countries. Additional information for some countries was extracted from available literature. Analysis of these data suggests the existence of an equal number of “intermediate” and “advanced” FEWS in surveyed river basins. While developing countries overall appear to progress well in FEWS implementation, LDCs are still lagging behind since most of them have “basic” FEWS. The difference between types of operational systems in developing and developed countries appear to be insignificant; presence of basic, intermediate or advanced FEWS depends on available investments for system developments and continuous financing for their operations, and there is evidence of more financial support — on the order of USD 100 million — to FEWS in developing countries thanks to international aid. However, training the staff and maintaining the FEWS for long-term operations are challenging. About 75% of responses indicate that river basins have inadequate hydrological network coverage and back-up equipment. Almost half of the responders indicated that their models are not advanced and accurate enough to produce reliable forecasts. Lack of technical expertise and limited skilled manpower to perform forecasts was cited by 50% of respondents. The primary reason for establishing FEWS, based on the survey, is to avoid property damage; minimizing causalities and agricultural losses appear to be secondary reasons. The range of the community benefited by FEWS varies, but 55% of FEWS operate in the range between 100,000 to 1 million of population. The number of flood disasters and their causalities has declined since the year 2000, while 50% of currently operating FEWS were established over the same period. This decline may be attributed to the combined DRR efforts, of which FEWS are an integral part. In lower-middle-income and low-income countries, economic losses due to flood disasters may be smaller in absolute terms, but they represent a higher percentage of such countries’ GDP. In high-income countries, higher flood-related losses accounted for a small percentage of their GDP. To improve global knowledge on FEWS status and implementation in the context of Sendai Framework and SDGs, the report’s recommendations include: i) coordinate global investments in FEWS development and standardise investment reporting; ii) establish an international hub to monitor the status of FEWS in collaboration with the national responsible agencies. This will support the sharing of FEWS-related information for accelerated global progress in DRR; iii) develop a comprehensive, index-based ranking system for FEWS according to their effectiveness in flood disaster mitigation. This will provide clear standards and a roadmap for improving FEWS’ effectiveness, and iv) improve coordination between institutions responsible for flood forecasting and those responsible for communicating warnings and community preparedness and awareness.
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Alt, Jonathan, Willie Brown, George Gallarno, John Richards et Titus Rice. Risk-based prioritization of operational condition assessments : Jennings Randolph case study. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), avril 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/43862.

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The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates, maintains, and manages over $232 billion worth of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. Using Operational Condition Assessments (OCA), the USACE allocates limited resources to assess asset condition in efforts to minimize risks associated with asset performance degradation, but decision makers require a greater understanding of those risks. The analysis of risk associated with Flood Risk Management assets in the context of its associated watershed system includes understanding the consequences of the asset’s failure and a determination of the likelihood that the asset will perform as expected given the current OCA ratings of critical components. This research demonstrates an application of a scalable methodology to model the probability of a dam performing as expected given the state of its subordinate gates and their components. The research team combines this likelihood with consequences generated by the application of designed simulation experiments with hydrological models to develop a measure of risk. The resulting risk scores serve as an input for an optimization program that outputs the optimal set of components to conduct OCAs on to minimize risk in the watershed. Proof-of-concept results for an initial case study on the Jennings Randolph Dam are provided.
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Alt, Jonathan, Willie Brown, George Gallarno et John Richards. Risk-based prioritization of operational condition assessments : stakeholder analysis and literature review. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), mars 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/40162.

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The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates, maintains, and manages more than $232 billion worth of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. Using the Operational Condition Assessment (OCA) system, the USACE allocates limited resources to assess conditions and maintain assets in efforts to minimize risks associated with asset performance degradation. Currently, OCAs are conducted on each component within a facility every 5 years, regardless of the component’s risk contribution. The analysis of risks associated with Flood Risk Management (FRM) facilities, such as dams, includes considering how the facility contributes to its associated FRM watershed system, understanding the consequences of degradation in the facility’s performance, and calculating the likelihood that the facility will perform as expected given the current OCA condition ratings of critical components. This research will develop a scalable methodology to model the probability of failure of components and systems that contribute to the performance of facilities in their respective FRM systems combined with consequences derived from hydrological models of the watershed to develop facility risk scores. This interim report documents the results of the first phase of this effort, stakeholder analysis and literature review, to identify candidate approaches to determine the probability of failure of a facility.
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Alt, Jonathan, Willie Brown, George Gallarno, John Richards, Jennifer Olszewski et Titus Rice. Risk-based prioritization of operational condition assessments : methodology and case study results. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), novembre 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/46123.

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USACE operates, maintains, and manages more than $232 billion of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. USACE uses the Operational Condition Assessment (OCA) to allocate limited resources to assess condition of this infrastructure in efforts to minimize risks associated with performance degradation. The analysis of risk associated with flood risk management (FRM) assets includes consideration of how each asset contributes to its associated FRM watershed system, understanding the consequences of the asset’s performance degradation, and a determination of the likelihood that the asset will perform as expected given the current OCA condition ratings of critical components. This research demonstrates a proof-of-concept application of a scalable methodology to model the probability of a dam performing as expected given the state of its gates and their components. The team combines this likelihood of degradation with consequences generated by the application of designed simulation experiments with hydrological models to develop a risk measure. The resulting risk scores serve as an input for a mixed-integer optimization program that outputs the optimal set of components to conduct OCAs on to minimize risk in the watershed. This report documents the results of the application of this methodology to two case studies.
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CORPS OF ENGINEERS WASHINGTON DC. Planning : Risk-Based Analysis for Evaluation of Hydrology/Hydraulics, Geotechnical Stability, and Economics in Flood Damage Reduction Studies. Fort Belvoir, VA : Defense Technical Information Center, mars 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada404390.

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Weissinger, Rebecca, et Dana Witwicki. Riparian monitoring of wadeable streams at Courthouse Wash, Arches National Park : Summary report, 2010–2019. Sous la direction de Alice Wondrak Biel. National Park Service, novembre 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.36967/nrr-2287907.

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The goal of Northern Colorado Plateau Network (NCPN) riparian monitoring is to determine long-term trends in hydrologic, geomorphic, and vegetative properties of wadeable streams in the context of changes in other ecological drivers, stressors, and processes. This information is intended to provide early warning of resource degradation and determine natural variability of wadeable streams. This report summarizes NCPN monitoring of Courthouse Wash in Arches National Park (NP) from 2010 to 2019. The focus of this report is to (1) present geomorphology and vegetation data from five reaches monitored in Courthouse Wash from 2010 to 2015, and (2) examine patterns in water availability at one monitoring reach from November 2010 to December 2019. Vegetation sampling and geomorphology surveys were suspended in 2016 due to budget cuts; this report presents baseline data for future comparisons. The NCPN has five monitoring reaches located between the inflow of Sevenmile Canyon, a major tributary, and the terminus of Courthouse Wash, at the Colorado River. Two reaches (2, 5) are located in Upper Courthouse Wash, and three (1, 4, 7) in Lower Courthouse Wash. Hydrologic monitoring wells are installed only at Reach 1. During our monitoring period, which included drought years in 2012 and 2018 and a wetter-than-average period from fall 2013 to 2014, groundwater levels showed steep declines corresponding to the start of the growing season each year. Hot, dry summers and falls in 2012, 2018, and 2019 showed the deepest troughs in groundwater levels. Active monsoon years helped elevate summer and fall groundwater levels in 2013 and 2014. Continued monitoring will help us better understand the relationship of climate and water availability at this reach. A geomorphic survey was completed once for reaches 2, 4, and 7, and twice for reaches 5 and 1. Powerful floods during our monitoring period resulted in aggradation of the channel in reaches 5 and 1, which were first surveyed in March 2013. Flooding in September 2013 resulted in an average of 0.24 meters of deposition found in the channel thalweg at Reach 1 in March 2014. Storm events in May 2014 caused additional aggradation. In March 2015, an average of 0.41 meters of deposition was recorded in the channel thalweg at Reach 5, with 0.32 meters of deposition between the vegetation transect headpins compared to the 2013 data. The riparian vegetation recorded at our monitoring reaches is consistent with an open-canopy Fremont cottonwood woodland with a diverse understory. Canopy closure ranged from 29% to 52%. Measurements were sensitive enough to detect a 10% reduction in canopy closure at Reach 5 during a pest infestation in June 2013. Canopy closure subsequently rebounded at the reach by 2015. Total obligate and facultative wetland cover ranged from 7% to 26%. Fremont cottonwood seedlings, saplings, and overstory trees were present at all reaches, indicating good potential for future regeneration of the canopy structure. These data can serve as a baseline for comparison with future monitoring efforts. One area of management concern is that exotic-plant frequency and cover were relatively high in all monitoring reaches. Exotic cover ranged from 2% to 30%. High exotic cover was related to years with high cover of annual brome grasses. High cover of exotic grasses is associated with increased wildfire risk in southwestern riparian systems, which are not well-adapted to fire. Managers should be prepared for this increased risk following wet winters that promote annual brome grass cover. Beaver activity was noted throughout bedrock-constrained reaches in Courthouse Wash. Beaver activity can reduce adjacent woody riparian vegetation cover, but it also contributes to maintaining a higher water table and persistent surface water. Climate change is likely to be an increasingly significant stressor in Courthouse Wash, as hotter, drier conditions decrease water levels and increase drought stress...
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ERDC : Where Science and Engineering Meet. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), mars 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/43462.

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For nearly a century, the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) has been at the forefront of tackling our nation's toughest engineering challenges, providing innovative solutions in the areas of civil works and military engineering, and offsetting the negative effects of climate change. From its earliest days of hydrology experiments along the Mississippi River in 1929, ERDC's R&D has grown, along with its buildings and capabilities. Today, ERDC's facilities, combined with its people, have created one of the world's premier R&D organizations supporting the delivery of projects and programs for federal, state and local agencies as well as private, academic and international partners. ERDC's ongoing R&D, aligned with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) R&D portfolios, allows key investments to be targeted to strategic areas that can benefit multiple interests. ERDC's R&D enhances USACE's ability to execute its Civil Works (CW) missions to support commercial navigation, manage ecosystems and reduce flood risk, while our research in Installations and Operational Environments (IOE) is improving the reliability, efficiency and effectiveness of military infrastructure and on the battlefield. ERDC conducts scientific R&D to improve all aspects of mission planning, preparation, execution and sustainment, including innovations to protect the Warfighter. Sustained, multiyear support for ERDC R&D is critical to institutionalize successes and magnify benefits, enabling the nation to take a proactive approach to meeting the complex challenges of both today and tomorrow.
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