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Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Hourly forward price curve »

Auteur : Grafiati

Publié le 9 mars 2023

Mis à jour le 10 mars 2023

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Hourly forward price curve"

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Kiesel, Rüdiger, Florentina Paraschiv et Audun Sætherø. « On the construction of hourly price forward curves for electricity prices ». Computational Management Science 16, n^o 1-2 (28 février 2018) : 345–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10287-018-0300-6.

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MAISANO, J., A. RADCHIK et T. LING. « A LOGNORMAL MODEL FOR DEMAND FORECASTING IN THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET ». ANZIAM Journal 57, n^o 3 (janvier 2016) : 369–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1446181115000322.

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Many electricity market participants have a requirement to calculate the probabilistic risk measures, such as earnings at risk (EaR) and value at risk (VaR), for compliance reporting purposes. This requirement is currently hindered by the lack of analytical representations for forecasts of demand (load) and price curves; this motivates numerical simulation and models that need extensive calibration. In this paper, we derive an analytical representation of a state demand forecast which is the aggregated usage of all electricity consumers in a particular region (such as New South Wales or Victoria). We have used two probabilistic benchmarks from the Australian energy market operator as input, which are expressed as forecasted probability of exceedance.Due to a number of considerations, including asymmetry of these quantiles with respect to the median, we have selected a series of truncated lognormal distributions with two parameters. The procedure of finding these parameters has been reduced to solving (for every half-hour) a single nonlinear equation. As a result, the two-year half-hourly forecast (expected curve) and demand volatility are found by explicit integration with the set of derived distributions. We have also tested an alternative method based on simplifying assumptions; using a nontruncated lognormal distribution, we found that under the test conditions this method produces an identical forward load and volatility curve.

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Michelfelder, Richard A., et Eugene A. Pilotte. « Information in Electricity Forward Prices ». Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 55, n^o 8 (29 octobre 2019) : 2641–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022109019000930.

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We examine forward prices in a market where nonstorable inventory exacerbates the influence of seasonal and hourly variation in supply and demand, expected and unexpected, on the level and volatility of spot prices. We find strong evidence, unusual for a commodity, that the difference between contemporaneous forward and spot prices has power to forecast both the spot price change and the risk premium realized at delivery. Our evidence of a time-varying risk premium is consistent with expected hourly and seasonal variation in the needs of producers and retailers of electricity to hedge against extreme spot price decreases and increases, respectively.

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Haugom, Erik, et Carl J. Ullrich. « Forecasting spot price volatility using the short-term forward curve ». Energy Economics 34, n^o 6 (novembre 2012) : 1826–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.017.

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AIHARA, SHIN ICHI, et ARUNABHA BAGCHI. « IDENTIFICATION OF AFFINE TERM STRUCTURES FROM YIELD CURVE DATA ». International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance 13, n^o 02 (mars 2010) : 259–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219024910005760.

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We consider a slight perturbation of the Hull-White short rate model and the resulting modified forward rate equation. We identify the model coefficients by using the martingale property of the normalized bond price. The forward rate and the system parameters are then estimated by using the maximum likelihood method.

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Eberlein, Ernst, Christoph Gerhart et Zorana Grbac. « Multiple curve Lévy forward price model allowing for negative interest rates ». Mathematical Finance 30, n^o 1 (14 mars 2019) : 167–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/mafi.12210.

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Eberlein, Ernst, et Christoph Gerhart. « A multiple-curve Lévy forward rate model in a two-price economy ». Quantitative Finance 18, n^o 4 (20 novembre 2017) : 537–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14697688.2017.1384558.

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Pontiggia, Dario. « Phillips curve and long-run inflation under commitment ». Journal of Economic Studies 47, n^o 1 (1 janvier 2020) : 21–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-06-2018-0229.

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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to study the optimal long-run rate of inflation in the presence of a hybrid Phillips curve, which nests a purely backward-looking Phillips curve and the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) as special limiting cases.Design/methodology/approachThis paper derives the long-run rate of inflation in a basic New Keynesian (NK) model, characterized by sticky prices and rule-of-thumb behavior by price setters. The monetary authority possesses commitment and its objective function stems from an approximation to the utility of the representative household.FindingsCommitment solution for the monetary authority leads to steady-state outcomes in which inflation, albeit small, is positive. Rising from zero under the purely forward-looking NKPC, the optimal long-run rate of inflation reaches its maximum under the purely backward-looking Phillips curve. In this case, inflation bias arises, while, under the hybrid Phillips curve, positive long-run inflation is associated with an output gain.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper serves as a clarification against the misperception that log-linearized models take as given the steady-state inflation rate rather than being capable of determining it. Analysis is sensitive to the basic NK setting, with the assumed rule-of-thumb behavior by price setters and price staggering.Originality/valueThe results are the first to quantify the optimal long-run rate of inflation in a fully microfounded model that nests different Phillips curves.

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Menyhért, B. « Estimating the Hungarian New-Keynesian phillips curve ». Acta Oeconomica 58, n^o 3 (1 septembre 2008) : 295–318. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/aoecon.58.2008.3.3.

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This paper estimates the hybrid New-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) for Hungary with different techniques. Because of weak instruments, single-equation GMM estimations yield very unreliable results. More robust methods show that basically no statistical inference is possible as to the true specification of the inflation dynamics. However, a more efficient simultaneous-equations method, the full information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimator provides identified parameters. Furthermore, coefficient estimates on the driving variable are positive and significant for the first time, lending much-needed empirical support in favour of the New-Keynesian model. Inflation appears to be determined to an equal extent by past inflation and forward-looking expectations. Structural analysis yields realistic estimates for the frequency of price adjustments and suggests that the dominant price setting behaviour is backward-looking.

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Fedorenko, I., G. Chornous et V. Pylypchuk. « EVALUATION OF THE HYBRID NEW KEYNESIAN PHILLIPS CURVE FOR UKRAINE ». Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics, n^o 216 (2021) : 64–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.17721/1728-2667.2021/216-3/8.

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The Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (HNKPC) was developed as a response to the apparent inertia in inflation the baseline New Keynesian Phillips curve leaved unexplained. Thus, the hybrid model combines two extreme cases – the traditional Phillips curve, and the purely forward-looking NKPC. The HNKPC also based on theoretical micro-foundations that aim to explain price stickiness and nominal rigidities. The paper is devoted to econometric testing and investigation the validity of the HNKPC (Calvo pricing model) for Ukraine. We use both the output gap and the marginal cost as the relevant indicators of real economic activity to determine the most appropriate one for Ukraine. Using the monthly data for the period 2016–2020, the main object is to compare the impact of both forward- and backward-looking components on inflation dynamic. Results of estimation by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) show that inflation possess resistant backward inertia due to domination of backwardlooking behaviour. Our findings indicate that the degree of price stickiness in Ukraine is found to be quite low, while the fraction of firms using the backward-looking rule in price setting is rather high. These estimates seem plausible from an economic point of view but not optimistic in terms of inflation targeting. The results provide useful insights for inflation dynamics and can be useful for improving monetary policy efficiency in Ukraine

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Thèses sur le sujet "Hourly forward price curve"

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Saethero, Audun Sviland [Verfasser], et Rüdiger [Akademischer Betreuer] Kiesel. « Hourly Price Forward Curves for Electricity Markets / Audun Sviland Saethero ; Betreuer : Rüdiger Kiesel ». Duisburg, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1151446769/34.

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Saethero, Audun Sviland Verfasser], et Rüdiger [Akademischer Betreuer] [Kiesel. « Hourly Price Forward Curves for Electricity Markets / Audun Sviland Saethero ; Betreuer : Rüdiger Kiesel ». Duisburg, 2018. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:hbz:464-20180115-110447-5.

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CALDANA, RUGGERO. « Spread and basket option pricing : an application to interconnected power markets ». Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10281/39422.

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An interconnector is an asset that gives the owner the right, but not the obligation, to transmit electricity between two locations each hour of the day over a prefixed time period. The financial value of the interconnector is given by a series of options that are written on the price differential between two electricity markets, that is, a strip of European options on an hourly spread. Since the hourly forward price is not directly observable on the market, Chapter 1 proposes a practical procedure to build an hourly forward price curve, fitting both base load and peak load forward quotations. One needs a stochastic model, a valuation formula, and a calibration method to evaluate interconnection capacity contracts. To capture the main features of the electricity price series, we model the energy price log-returns for each hour with a non-Gaussian mean-reverting stochastic process. Unfortunately no explicit solution to the spread option valuation problem is available. Chapter 2 develops a method for pricing the generic spread option in the non-Gaussian framework by extending the Bjerksund and Stensland (2011) approximation to a Fourier transform framework. We also obtain an upper bound on the estimation error. The method is applicable to models in which the joint characteristic function of the underlying assets is known analytically. Since an option on the difference of two prices is a particular case of a basket option, Chapter 3 extends our results to basket option pricing, obtaining a lower and an upper bound on the estimated price. We propose a general lower approximation to the basket option price and provide an upper bound on the estimation error. The method is applicable to models in which the joint characteristic function of the underlying assets and the geometric average is known. We test the performance of these new pricing algorithms, considering different stochastic dynamic models. Finally, in Chapter 4, we use the proposed spread option pricing method to price interconnectors. We show how to set up a calibration procedure: A market-coherent calibration is obtained, reproducing the hourly forward price curve. Finally, we present several examples of interconnector capacity contract valuation between European countries.

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Addor, Antonin. « Decomposition of Hourly Prices Forward Curves into Load Blocks ». St. Gallen, 2008. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/04809687001/$FILE/04809687001.pdf.

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Gerhart, Christoph [Verfasser], et Ernst [Akademischer Betreuer] Eberlein. « A multiple-curve Lévy forward rate model in a two-price economy ». Freiburg : Universität, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1122647689/34.

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Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Hourly forward price curve"

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Schnorr, Stephan. « Price Forward Curve ». Dans essentials, 53–54. Wiesbaden : Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-15431-8_10.

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Bose, Sumit Kumar, Janardhanan Sethuraman et Sadhalaxmi Raipet. « Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using Neural Networks ». Dans Artificial Neural Networks in Finance and Manufacturing, 124–38. IGI Global, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-59140-670-9.ch007.

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The term structure of interest rates holds a place of prominence in the financial and economic world. Though there is a vast array of literature on the issue of modeling the yield curve, there is virtually no mention of the issue of forecasting the yield curve. In the current chapter, we apply neural networks for the purpose of forecasting the zero-coupon yield curve. First the yield curve is modeled from the past data using the famous Nelson-Siegel model. Then, forecasting of the various parameters of the Nelson-Siegel yield curve is done using two different techniques: the multilayer perceptron and the feed-forward network. The forecasted Nelson-Siegel parameters are then used to predict the yield and the price of the various bonds. Results show the superiority of the feed-forward network over the multilayer perceptron for the purposes of forecasting the term structure of interest rates.

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Goldsmith, Oliver. « Two ladies of great distinction introduced. Superior finery ever seems to confer superior breeding ». Dans The Vicar of Wakefield, sous la direction de Robert L. Mack et Arthur Friedman. Oxford University Press, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/owc/9780199537549.003.0009.

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Mr. Burchell had scarce taken leave, and Sophia consented to dance with the chaplain, when my little ones came running out to tell us that the ‘Squire was come, with a crowd of company. Upon our return, we found our landlord, with a couple of under gentlemen and two young ladies richly drest, whom he introduced as women of very great distinction and fashion from town. We happened not to have chairs enough for the whole company; but Mr. Thornhill immediately proposed that every gentleman should sit in a lady’s lap. This I positively objected to, notwithstanding a look of disapprobation from my wife. Moses was therefore dispatched to borrow a couple of chairs; and as we were in want of ladies to make up a set at country dances, the two gentlemen went with him in quest of a couple of partners. Chairs and partners were soon provided. The gentlemen returned with my neighbour Flamborough’s rosy daughters, flaunting with red top-knots,* but an unlucky circumstance was not adverted to; though the Miss Flamboroughs were reckoned the very best dancers in the parish, and understood the jig and the roundabout to perfection; yet they were totally unacquainted with country dances.* This at first discomposed us: however, after a little shoving and dragging, they at last went merrily on. Our music consisted of two fiddles, with a pipe and tabor. The moon shone bright, Mr. Thornhill and my eldest daughter led up the ball, to the great delight of the spectators; for the neighbours hearing what was going forward, came flocking about us. My girl moved with so much grace and vivacity, that my wife could not avoid discovering the pride of her heart, by assuring me, that though the little chit* did it so cleverly, all the steps were stolen from herself. The ladies of the town strove hard to be equally easy, but without success. They swam, sprawled, languished, and frisked; but all would not do: the gazers indeed owned that it was fine; but neighbour Flamborough observed, that Miss Livy’s feet seemed as pat to the music as its echo. After the dance had continued about an hour, the two ladies, who were apprehensive of catching cold, moved to break up the ball. One of them, I thought, expressed her sentiments upon this occasion in a very coarse manner, when she observed, that by the living jingo, she was all of a muck of sweat.* Upon our return to the house, we found a very elegant cold supper, which Mr. Thornhill had ordered to be brought with him. The conversation at this time was more reserved than before. The two ladies threw my girls quite into the shade; for they would talk of nothing but high life, and high lived company; with other fashionable topics, such as pictures, taste, Shakespear, and the musical glasses.* ‘Tis true they once or twice mortified us sensibly by slipping out an oath; but that appeared to me as the surest symptom of their distinction, (tho’ I am since informed that swearing is perfectly unfashionable.) Their finery, however, threw a veil over any grossness in their conversation. My daughters seemed to regard their superior accomplishments with envy; and what appeared amiss was ascribed to tip-top quality breeding. But the condescension of the ladies was still superior to their other accomplishments. One of them observed, that had miss Olivia seen a little more of the world, it would greatly improve her. To which the other added, that a single winter in town* would make her little Sophia quite another thing. My wife warmly assented to both; adding, that there was nothing she more ardently wished than to give her girls a single winter’s polishing. To this I could not help replying, that their breeding was already superior to their fortune; and that greater refinement would only serve to make their poverty ridiculous, and give them a taste for pleasures they had no right to possess.—’And what pleasures,’ cried Mr. Thornhill, ‘do they not deserve to possess, who have so much in their power to bestow? As for my part,’ continued he, ‘my fortune is pretty large, love, liberty, and pleasure, are my maxims; but curse me if a settlement of half my estate could give my charming Olivia pleasure, it should be hers; and the only favour I would ask in return would be to add myself to the benefit.’ I was not such a stranger to the world as to be ignorant that this was the fashionable cant to disguise the insolence of the basest proposal; but I made an effort to suppress my resentment. ‘Sir,’ cried I, ‘the family which you now condescend to favour with your company, has been bred with as nice a sense of honour as you. Any attempts to injure that, may be attended with very dangerous consequences. Honour, Sir, is our only possession at present, and of that last treasure we must be particularly careful.’—I was soon sorry for the warmth with which I had spoken this, when the young gentleman, grasping my hand, swore he commended my spirit, though he disapproved my suspicions. ‘As to your present hint,’ continued he, ‘I protest nothing was farther from my heart than such a thought. No, by all that’s tempting, the virtue that will stand a regular siege was never to my taste; for all my amours are carried by a coup de main.’*

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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Hourly forward price curve"

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Hildmann, Marcus, Goran Andersson, Gregoire Caro, Donnacha Daly et Sebastiano Rossi. « What makes a good Hourly Price Forward Curve ? » Dans 2013 10th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM 2013). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2013.6607349.

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Adam, Alexandra, Marcus Hildmann et Goran Andersson. « Hourly Price Forward Curve calculation for market coupling ». Dans 2014 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting. IEEE, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/pesgm.2014.6938905.

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Hildmann, M., E. Kaffe, Y. He et G. Andersson. « Combined estimation and prediction of the Hourly Price Forward Curve ». Dans 2012 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting. New Energy Horizons - Opportunities and Challenges. IEEE, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/pesgm.2012.6345333.

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Ettlin, Adrian. « Improved Hourly Price Forward Curve Forecasting Based on Future Prices for Hydropower Production ». Dans 2019 16th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2019.8916338.

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Skopal, Robert. « Short-term hourly price forward curve prediction using neural network and hybrid ARIMA-NN model ». Dans 2015 International Conference on Information and Digital Technologies (IDT). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/dt.2015.7222993.

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Grgic, David, Victor Francisco Guada Escalona, Jus Pogacar, Jan Bohinec, Ludvik Bartelj et Gasper Rugelj. « State of the Art Price Forward Curve Calculation for Power and Gas Markets ». Dans 2022 18th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem54602.2022.9921114.

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Chesser, Noel P. « Options and Strategies for Waste to Energy Facility Energy Sales in Deregulated Markets ». Dans 16th Annual North American Waste-to-Energy Conference. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/nawtec16-1913.

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Many US Municipal Waste to Energy (WTE) plants entered into long term electric sales contracts with their local utilities for the electricity generated. These legacy contracts will be expiring over the next few years. With the advent of electric deregulation, the energy markets are vastly different and WTEs now have many more options to optimize the value of the energy generated from their facilities. There are even some options available for WTE’s located in regulated markets. A well developed energy sales strategy and execution can make a significant difference in the value realized from the WTE energy generated. To understand the options available to WTE’s it is first helpful to have a basic understanding of the power markets. In markets that are deregulated, there exists two primary markets, the hourly market were prices are set by the regional independent system operator (ISO) such as PJM or NYISO and the forward markets which offer fix rates for energy delivered some time in the future. The hourly market prices are highly transparent (posted on ISO’s web site) and are based on the marginal cost of fuel used to meet the last increment of demand during that hour. In the Mid-Atlantic, New York and New England prices are typically driven by the price of natural gas and to a lesser extent fuel oil and coal. The forward markets are driven by counterparties who are willing to offer fixed prices in return for risk premiums added to the price to cover their price risk. Forward market pricing is not as transparent and requires knowledge of the market, knowledge and experience with the major buyers and sellers and multiple price bids. Options for WTEs facilities now include sales directly to the ISO, sales to wholesale buyers (generally 1–5 years), sales to local utilities and power authorities, sales directly to the local municipality and sales to large local commercial/industrial users of energy. The option selected should be consistent with a well defined energy sales strategy. The strategy should incorporate a price risk profile, budget and funding requirements/objectives, facility operating risk profile, credit risk, local considerations, and risk management timeframe. The mechanisms required to execute the above options vary and involve different approaches, contract structures, licenses, memberships, risks and rewards. There are qualified independent energy consultants that can assist WTEs in understanding the markets, developing energy sales strategies and execution thereof to help ensure the value of the energy generated is optimized.

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Nanadagopal, Pugalenthi, Matthias Duerr, Ole Fahrendorf, Dan Haid et Hubert Paprotna. « Influence of Degradation, Fuel Cost and Electricity Price Factors on Combine Cycle Power Plant Cost Analysis ». Dans ASME 2021 Gas Turbine India Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gtindia2021-75952.

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Abstract Gas turbine-based combine cycle (GT-CC) economic evaluation is very important to bring together own equipment manufacturing companies (OEM’s) and power plant owners. The fuel cost & cost of electricity play the major role in economic evaluation which drives the decision during the bidding. The first portion of this paper encompasses the different cost analysis methods like Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) and Pay Back Period (PBP) for different fuel costs and electricity prices. The second portion of the paper covers the delta cost benefits due to improvement in the combined cycle degradation GT-CC operators or customers are looking for the opportunities to control and minimize the degradation of the gas turbine power plant which directly impact the profitability. The customer or operator always monitor the plant performance to understand the life cost impact on performance degradation. This paper will help the customers & GT-CC OEM companies to focus on different area to reduce the unit cost of generating electricity, decide to move forward with the project during the proposal and improve the business at various regions based on fuel cost and global geographical political situations. Also, the reader can digest the benefits of improved degradation curve over the normal curve.

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Gorbea, Carlos, Ernst Fricke et Udo Lindemann. « The Design of Future Cars in a New Age of Architectural Competition ». Dans ASME 2008 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2008-49722.

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This paper presents how complex system architecture lifecycles, such as that of cars, follow a similar S-curve shaped path as that of individual technological innovations. By applying this theory we show that today’s automotive industry has started a new chapter of architectural competition with similarities to its early history from 1885–1915 when steam, electric and internal combustion engine cars were competing to dominate the automotive market. Taking a historical perspective, we find that firms that organize their development activities to focus on bringing about architectural innovation are better placed in succeeding in the future market until a new dominant architecture emerges. The architecture lifecycle framework used in this study is constructed by means of a performance index. The index scores the performance of 91 cars of various architectures based on five overall system variables: power, weight, maximum velocity, fuel efficiency and the manufacturer’s suggested retail price. Depicting architectural performance over time helps identify periods of architecture competition and dominance where historical agents to change can be identified. The key factors that brought about architectural competition in the early 1900’s involved a series of innovation breakthroughs in engine and fuel technologies. Today, a new wave of power train innovations is being triggered primarily by environmental regulatory demands to reduce vehicle emissions. Future research lies in presenting a methodology for selecting vehicle architectures early on in the product development cycle that are best suited for the market going forward based on a manufacturer’s goals and a cost-benefit analysis.

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Mhd Yusof, M. Hatta, M. Zarkashi Sulaiman, Rahimah A. Halim, Nurfaridah Ahmad Fauzi, Ahgheelan Sella Thurai, Masseera Mahictin, Tg Zuhaili Tg Yahya et Fadli Adlan Muslim. « Delivering Low Cost Wells at Matured Field with Enhanced Statistical Approach ». Dans Offshore Technology Conference. OTC, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4043/30994-ms.

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Abstract This paper discusses the Case study of Field A in offshore Sarawak, Malaysia which focus on re-thinking development based on statistical analysis of the fields. Conventionally, well design is driven by subsurface requirement by targeting the high-reserve sand and well is designed to meet subsurface objectives. However, the conventional way may not be efficient to develop matured field environment due to the high CAPEX and the inconsistencies among well design especially in current volatile oil price period. The objective of this fit-for-purpose approach which is called "Cone Concept Statistical Approach" is to steer away from the conventional way of targeting only sweet spots whilst leaving the remaining potential resources undeveloped. Based on the statistical analysis and subsurface fields pattern, the "Cone Concept Statistical Approach" in which standardizing well design and trajectories was developed to extract the whole fields’ reserve at maximum. Well design boundaries were introduced to ensure this approach can be replicated throughout the field. Not only this study covers drilling perspective, completion perspective was also taken into consideration by exploring a cheaper and fit for purpose sand control method, considering it is a matured field with relatively short remaining field life. The Well Cost Catalogue for this field-specific was also developed which contains different types of design and completion, in order to holistically evaluate sand control method and identify the best option for the project moving forward. This "Cone Concept Statistical Approach" aims to enable operator to drill more simple wells within the same allocated budget in which poses low-to-none risk in the design and execution phase, promoting learning curve to improve operation & HSE, and ultimately to get positive project economics. Since this simple approach can be implemented early on even during the pre-FEL stage, the FDP team & host authority can come together to jointly discuss the targets/platform ranking and segregate them into various phases. Hence, the number of platforms or drilling centers, and its location also can be optimized early on with this concept, and again, translating into further reduction in overall project cost. This paper will help other operators and host authority to understand better on how a specific development concept on statistical approach can result and turn the matured-challenging fields into more economically attractive projects – low overall development cost and maximizing the recovery.

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