Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Holt-Winter method »
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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Holt-Winter method"
Andriani, Novita, Sri Wahyuningsih et Meiliyani Siringoringo. « Application of Double Exponential Smoothing Holt and Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter with Golden Section Optimization to Forecast Export Value of East Borneo Province ». Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi 18, no 3 (15 mai 2022) : 475–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.20956/j.v18i3.17492.
Texte intégralSeptiana, Dian. « Forecasting Rice Prices with Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Model ». Hanif Journal of Information Systems 1, no 2 (17 février 2024) : 62–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.56211/hanif.v1i2.17.
Texte intégralJaber, Abobaker M., Mohd Tahir Ismail et Alsaidi M. Altaher. « Application of Empirical Mode Decomposition with Local Linear Quantile Regression in Financial Time Series Forecasting ». Scientific World Journal 2014 (2014) : 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/708918.
Texte intégralUtami, Ruli, et Suryo Atmojo. « Perbandingan Metode Holt Eksponential Smoothing dan Winter Eksponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Penjualan Souvenir ». Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Informasi Asia 11, no 2 (1 août 2017) : 123. http://dx.doi.org/10.32815/jitika.v11i2.191.
Texte intégralSalamiah, Mia, Sukono Sukono et Eddy Djauhari. « Prediction of the Number of Visitors to Tourism Objects in the Ujung Genteng Coastal Area of Sukabumi Using the Holt-Winter Method ». Operations Research : International Conference Series 2, no 4 (5 décembre 2021) : 109–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.47194/orics.v2i4.184.
Texte intégralFauzi, Nur Fatihah, Nurul Shahiera Ahmadi, Nor Hayati Shafii et Huda Zuhrah Ab Halim. « A Comparison Study on Fuzzy Time Series and Holt-Winter Model in Forecasting Tourist Arrival in Langkawi, Kedah ». Journal of Computing Research and Innovation 5, no 1 (2 octobre 2020) : 34–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.24191/jcrinn.v5i1.138.
Texte intégralSetiawan, Dwi, Eko Sediyono et Irwan Sembiring. « Pemanfaatan Metode Association Rules dan Holt-Winter Multiplicative untuk Meningkatkan Peluang Penjualan Obat Pertanian ». JURNAL SISTEM INFORMASI BISNIS 10, no 1 (25 mars 2020) : 46–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.21456/vol10iss1pp46-55.
Texte intégralLê, Đức Đạo, et Linh Chi Phạm. « Forecasting market demand using ARIMA and Holt - Winter method : A case study on canned fruit production company ». TẠP CHÍ KHOA HỌC TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC QUỐC TẾ HỒNG BÀNG 4 (24 juin 2023) : 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.59294/hiujs.vol.4.2023.380.
Texte intégralSucipto, Lalu, et Syaharuddin Syaharuddin. « Konstruksi Forecasting System Multi-Model untuk pemodelan matematika pada peramalan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat ». Register : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Sistem Informasi 4, no 2 (1 juillet 2018) : 114. http://dx.doi.org/10.26594/register.v4i2.1263.
Texte intégralPertiwi, Dewi Darma. « Applied Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter Method for Predict Rainfall in Mataram City ». Journal of Intelligent Computing and Health Informatics 1, no 2 (30 septembre 2020) : 45. http://dx.doi.org/10.26714/jichi.v1i2.6330.
Texte intégralThèses sur le sujet "Holt-Winter method"
Tengborg, Sebastian, et Joakim Widén. « Prognostisering av försäkringsärenden : Hur brytpunktsdetektion och effekter av historiska lag– och villkorsförändringar kan användas i utvecklingen av prognosarbete ». Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Statistik, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-96377.
Texte intégralCifonelli, Antonio. « Probabilistic exponential smoothing for explainable AI in the supply chain domain ». Electronic Thesis or Diss., Normandie, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023NORMIR41.
Texte intégralThe key role that AI could play in improving business operations has been known for a long time, but the penetration process of this new technology has encountered certain obstacles within companies, in particular, implementation costs. On average, it takes 2.8 years from supplier selection to full deployment of a new solution. There are three fundamental points to consider when developing a new model. Misalignment of expectations, the need for understanding and explanation, and performance and reliability issues. In the case of models dealing with supply chain data, there are five additionally specific issues: - Managing uncertainty. Precision is not everything. Decision-makers are looking for a way to minimise the risk associated with each decision they have to make in the presence of uncertainty. Obtaining an exact forecast is a advantageous; obtaining a fairly accurate forecast and calculating its limits is realistic and appropriate. - Handling integer and positive data. Most items sold in retail cannot be sold in subunits. This simple aspect of selling, results in a constraint that must be satisfied by the result of any given method or model: the result must be a positive integer. - Observability. Customer demand cannot be measured directly, only sales can be recorded and used as a proxy. - Scarcity and parsimony. Sales are a discontinuous quantity. By recording sales by day, an entire year is condensed into just 365 points. What’s more, a large proportion of them will be zero. - Just-in-time optimisation. Forecasting is a key function, but it is only one element in a chain of processes supporting decision-making. Time is a precious resource that cannot be devoted entirely to a single function. The decision-making process and associated adaptations must therefore be carried out within a limited time frame, and in a sufficiently flexible manner to be able to be interrupted and restarted if necessary in order to incorporate unexpected events or necessary adjustments. This thesis fits into this context and is the result of the work carried out at the heart of Lokad, a Paris-based software company aiming to bridge the gap between technology and the supply chain. The doctoral research was funded by Lokad in collaborationwith the ANRT under a CIFRE contract. The proposed work aims to be a good compromise between new technologies and business expectations, addressing the various aspects presented above. We have started forecasting using the exponential smoothing family which are easy to implement and extremely fast to run. As they are widely used in the industry, they have already won the confidence of users. What’s more, they are easy to understand and explain to an unlettered audience. By exploiting more advanced AI techniques, some of the limitations of the models used can be overcome. Cross-learning proved to be a relevant approach for extrapolating useful information when the number of available data was very limited. Since the common Gaussian assumption is not suitable for discrete sales data, we proposed using a model associatedwith either a Poisson distribution or a Negative Binomial one, which better corresponds to the nature of the phenomena we are seeking to model and predict. We also proposed using Monte Carlo simulations to deal with uncertainty. A number of scenarios are generated, sampled and modelled using a distribution. From this distribution, confidence intervals of different and adapted sizes can be deduced. Using real company data, we compared our approach with state-of-the-art methods such as DeepAR model, DeepSSMs and N-Beats. We deduced a new model based on the Holt-Winter method. These models were implemented in Lokad’s work flow
Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Holt-Winter method"
Elmunim, N. A., M. Abdullah, A. M. Hasbi et S. A. Bahari. « Short-term forecasting ionospheric delay over UKM, Malaysia, Using the Holt-Winter method ». Dans 2013 International Conference on Space Science and Communication (IconSpace). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iconspace.2013.6599443.
Texte intégralElmunim, N. A., M. Abdullah, A. M. Hasbi et A. Zaharim. « Forecasting ionospheric delay during quiet and disturbed days using the Holt-Winter method ». Dans 2015 International Conference on Space Science and Communication (IconSpace). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iconspace.2015.7283758.
Texte intégralMauricio, Ciprian Charles, et Conrado F. Ostia. « Cuckoo Search Algorithm Optimization of Holt-Winter Method for Distribution Transformer Load Forecasting ». Dans 2023 9th International Conference on Control, Automation and Robotics (ICCAR). IEEE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iccar57134.2023.10151700.
Texte intégralGinkala, Venkateswarlu, Shoeb Mohammad et A. D. Sarma. « Forecasting of ionospheric time delay using Holt-winter method for GPS applications in low latitude region ». Dans 2013 International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communications and Informatics (ICACCI). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icacci.2013.6637274.
Texte intégralSwamy, K. C. T., et S. Towseef Ahmed. « A Statistical Approach based on Holt-Winter Method for Forecasting of Global Positioning System Satellite L1 Band Signal (1575.42 MHz) Scintillations ». Dans 2020 2nd International Conference on Innovative Mechanisms for Industry Applications (ICIMIA). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icimia48430.2020.9074923.
Texte intégralSabrina, Dira Amanda, Desi Arisandi et Janson Hendryli. « Dashboard visualization and forecasting of the air pollutant standard index (ISPU) in DKI Jakarta using the holt-winter triple exponential smoothing method ». Dans SIXTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES (ICMS 2022). AIP Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0148306.
Texte intégralRojas Garcia, José Antonio, María Fernanda Huanca Van Heurck, Nicole Caroline Tello Barrios et Jon Arambarri. « Methodology to increase the level of service and the Profitability in a shoe trading SME imported using the forecast method of the Holt-Winter demand and inventory management in the era POST-COVID ». Dans 21st LACCEI International Multi-Conference for Engineering, Education and Technology (LACCEI 2023) : “Leadership in Education and Innovation in Engineering in the Framework of Global Transformations : Integration and Alliances for Integral Development”. Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.18687/laccei2023.1.1.525.
Texte intégralVenkateswarlu, G., et A. D. Sarma. « Performance of holt-winter and exponential smoothing methods for forecasting ionospheric TEC using IRNSS data ». Dans 2017 Second International Conference on Electrical, Computer and Communication Technologies (ICECCT). IEEE, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icecct.2017.8117892.
Texte intégralArini, Hendra Bayu Suseno, Fahmi Nur Maulana et Iik Muhamad Malik Matin. « Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing And Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Methods in Sales Commercial Business ». Dans 2023 11th International Conference on Cyber and IT Service Management (CITSM). IEEE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/citsm60085.2023.10455673.
Texte intégralUnal, Yusuf Ziya, Umar Mustafa Al-Turki, Selim Zaim, Omer Fahrettin Demirel et Rifat Gorener. « Developing spreadsheet models of Holt-Winter methods and solving with Microsoft Excel solver and differential evaluation technique : An application to tourism sector ». Dans 2015 International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management (IEOM). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ieom.2015.7093786.
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