Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « High Food Prices »

When adjusting product prices, marketers wish information concerning consumers' price perceptions. The present study aimed to develop an optimal pricing framework for food products by applying Weber's Law and Stevens' Power Law in psychophysics. The first phase attempted to measure the differential thresholds when magnitudes of prices were raised and lowered. The second phase was conducted to establish the psychophysical function representing perceived changes. Analysis showed consumers' differential thresholds were positively correlated with the initial price, consistent with Weber's Law. Further, participants' perceived change differed for increased and decreased prices. Products were perceived as cheaper only when medium-and low-priced products dropped dramatically in price. However, small reductions for the high-priced products were perceived as cheaper. Regardless of price changes, participants perceived products were more expensive when prices dropped by a small amount.

Oil exporting economies were the most hit by the recent oil price shock that spills on the food market in an increasingly volatile macroeconomic environment. This paper examines and compares sub-samples [before crisis <br />(2000 Q1–2013 Q1) and during crisis (2013 Q2–2019 Q4)] as to the impact of oil price on food prices in high- and low-income oil-exporting countries. We found an inverse relationship between oil and food prices in the long run based on full samples and sub-samples in high-income countries. The story is different during the crisis period: in low-income countries and all the countries combined, oil and food prices co-move in the long run as measured by the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). Our findings suggest that economic structure and uncertain events (crises) dictate the behaviour and relationship between food and oil markets. Food and oil prices may drift away in the short-run, but market forces turn them toward equilibrium in the long-run. Moreover, low-income countries are indifferent in both periods due to limited capacity to balance the increasing demand for and supply of food items.

This article investigates the extent to which national brand and private label (store brand) prices behave differently as food price inflation changes. Empirical tests using a range of indices support the hypotheses that rising commodity and fuel prices lead to relatively larger surges in private label prices. When food prices are rising or high, the average price difference between national brands and private labels shrinks. The findings have implications for understanding the welfare effects of private labels. Moreover, they suggest that food price inflation is stronger for low-income households as food prices rise.

AbstractThis study explains volatility as a measure and interaction of the possible movement in a particular economic variable. Prices change rapidly in adjustment to market circumstances. Food prices hike experienced overyears has resulted in widespread menace which led to increase in food price volatility. However, volatility and co-movement had generally been lower for the past two decades than for the previous ones. Wide price movements over a short period of time connote high volatility, rendering the producers and consumers vulnerable. Excess volatility can be subjected to sector ineffectiveness and is commodity specific. Producers and processors are mostly concerned about increased price volatility, which greatly exposed them to unpredictable risks and uncertainty associated with price changes. This study examined the volatility and co-movement of food commodity prices in Nigeria using price series data on rice, maize, sorghum, cassava and yam for the period of 1966 to 2013. The data were analysed using Vector Autoregressive Model to forecast food price volatility and to examine the food commodity prices that Granger cause food price volatility in other food commodities. The GARCH regression model is used to estimate the magnitude of volatility which revealed that, food commodity prices exhibit high volatility and there is persistent increase in prices over the period of study. The Nigerian food commodity prices have experienced high fluctuations over the period; therefore, the study recommends proper storage facilities and infrastructure for the food distribution corporations in Nigeria.

The effects of biofuel production on commodity prices and their transmission to retail food prices are discussed. Factors driving higher commodity prices are tight global supplies and increased demand of corn ethanol in the short term. Evidence suggests that higher corn prices contribute to food price inflation for some food items. These include eggs, poultry, pork, beef and milk. The findings imply that food price inflation for these items is related to increased production of corn ethanol, primarily because of high oil prices. Higher oil prices also increase fuel and energy costs, which increase marketing costs for all food categories.

PurposeEmpirical studies have documented the linkage between exchange rate movement and food prices. However, the purpose of this study is to investigate the degree and direction of returns and volatility spillover transmission between exchange rate and domestic food prices in Nigeria.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses weekly data from January 2010 to January 2019. Also, the study adopts the improved Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) approach to evaluate the return and volatility spillover between food price and naira to dollar exchange rate. The study also account for 2016 exchange rate crash in the interconnectedness between food prices and naira to dollar exchange rate.FindingsThe paper finds evidence of directional interdependence among the considered food prices and exchange rate based on the obtained spillover indexes. In addition, exchange rate returns and volatility transmission to food prices is more than it receives, particularly after the exchange rate crash.Research limitations/implicationsThe high consumption of staple foods requires policies on price stabilisation such as massive investment in local production and reduction in import dependence, in order to cushion the effects of exchange rate depreciation on domestic prices of food.Originality/valueThis study is the first empirical study to investigate the interconnectedness between exchange rate and domestic food prices for a food import–dependent developing country using the Diebold and Yilmaz approach.

During the last decade (2000–2010), we have witnessed an unprecedented rise in food prices, especially from the world and European market viewpoint. The article aims to analyze the development of prices in the food market in the Czech Republic and to identify the influence of global and European prices development on domestic food price development and price development of selected food products. The article focuses primarily on the sensitivity of Czech food price development and especially on sensitivity of the selected commodity aggregations price development on the global and European market price growth. Furthermore, it is analyzed the impact of changes in value added tax rate from 10% to 14% on food prices in general and then on the prices of selected food products in retails network. The results of the analysis are following. The Czech food market reacts sensitively to changes in food prices on the global market as well as on the EU market but the EU price development is determining for the CR. In terms of price response to change in the VAT rate, it appears that the growth rate is not absorbed on the production side but it is largely transferred to consumer prices. The selected food sample also showed high responsiveness in the development of prices to changes in the EU market prices but there are certain variations given by specifics of the Czech market.

The present paper provides a literature review of studies examining the potential causes and consequences of recent surges in food and agricultural commodity prices. Furthermore, this paper uses the structural trend methodology proposed by Koopman et al. (2009) to analyze movements in the IMF monthly commodity food price index for the period 1992(11)–2012(10) and to provide forecasts for the period 2012(11)–2014(12). The empirical results indicate that commodity food prices present seasonality and cyclicality with the longest periodicity of two years. The empirical findings identify certain structural breaks in commodity food price series as well as outliers. These structural breaks seem to capture the trend component of the price series well, while the outliers take account of temporal effects, that is, short-lived spikes. Finally, the presented forecasts show high and volatile commodity food prices.

This paper uses the Breitung and Candelon (2006) causality test to examine the effect of global oil and food price changes on the inflation in Morocco over the period from 1998Q1 to 2018Q1. The results show significant transmission from oil and food prices to domestic inflation. Specifically, the food prices are shown more important than oil prices in explaining inflation in the short-run, which reflects the high weight of food in the consumption basket. However, the effect of oil prices on inflation is much more persistent than the effect of food prices. Furthermore, the impact of commodity price shocks on inflation exhibits asymmetries. The oil price hikes affect more weakly the inflation than oil price decreases, whereas the food price increases are more transmitted to inflation than food price decreases. Our findings may provide useful information to researchers and policymakers in formulating more appropriate monetary policy.

Thesis (M.A.)--University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2006.
Title from electronic title page (viewed Oct. 10, 2007). "... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Arts degree in the School of Journalism and Mass Communication." Discipline: Journalism and Mass Communication; Department/School: Journalism and Mass Communication, School of.

Cette thèse propose trois essais sur les perturbations tout au long de la chaîne de distribution des produits alimentaires à haute valeur nutritionnelle. Elle contribue à notre compréhension des menaces liées à la réalisation des objectifs de sécurité alimentaire dans les pays émergents. Contribuant à l'analyse économique de la chaîne de distribution et des questions agricoles, la thèse est fondée sur différents éléments théoriques relatifs à la chaîne de valeur, la croissance du marché, la transmission des prix et met en œuvre des techniques d'économétrie appliquée (économétrie des données de panel, économétrie des séries temporelles) à partir de base de données originales. L'objectif est d'analyser les sources et l'ampleur des perturbations dans la chaîne de distribution des produits à haute valeur nutritionnelle.La première partie de la thèse analyse les perturbations sur les marchés des produits alimentaires à haute valeur non-transformés et moins transformés. Le Chapitre 2 examine les perturbations en amont et en aval de la chaîne de distribution de ces produits. Le Chapitre 3 étend l’analyse du Chapitre 2 en prenant en compte les perturbations relatives aux produits ayant subi un niveau de transformation élevé. Dans les deux chapitres, les perturbations sont analysées en termes de changement de prix et de quantité, à la fois en amont et en aval. Le changement de quantité est considéré comme une perturbation préliminaire alors que celui de prix est secondaire. Utilisant le marché de São Paulo comme sujet d'étude, le Chapitre 4 analyse les effets du prix du diesel sur les différents segments de la chaîne de distribution des produits alimentaires à haute valeur nutritionnelle. Un modèle à correction d’erreur (MCE) qui prend en considération les effets des prix entre les différents produits est estimé pour vérifier si les chocs provenant du prix du diesel sont plus élevés en amont qu'en aval. Ce chapitre est analytiquement fondé sur la théorie de la transmission des prix.Les résultats des Chapitres 2 et 3 montrent que les désastres climatiques sont des sources dominantes de perturbation de la chaîne de distribution des produits alimentaires à haute valeur nutritionnelle. Leur effet est négatif pour tous les produits analysés, bien que l'ampleur de perturbation varie d’un produit à l’autre. Les résultats du modèle à correction d’erreur (MCE) du Chapitre 4 montrent que les effets du prix du diesel sur les prix des produits alimentaires à haute valeur nutritionnelle sont positifs et significatifs, alors que les effets en aval sont plus élevés que ceux en amont. Les résultats de la thèse ont des implications importantes pour le développement et la mise en œuvre des politiques d’alimentation dans les pays émergents. Le Chapitre 1, introduction générale, justifie l'étude des différences entre l'ampleur de perturbation en amont et celle en aval, et situe la thèse dans les littératures existantes. Une conclusion générale est proposée en Chapitre 5 avec des propositions pour de futurs travaux de recherche
This dissertation presents three essays on disruptions along nutritional high-value food supply chains in emerging countries. It extends our understanding of threats to the attainment of food security in emerging countries. With a contribution to agricultural economics, the dissertation relies on value chain, market growth and price transmission theories and applies both panel data and time series econometric techniques to analyse the sources and magnitudes of the disruption of nutritional high-value food chains.The first part of the dissertation examines disruptions in unprocessed and minimally processed nutritional high-value food markets. Chapter 2 examines upstream and downstream disruptions along these food chains. Chapter 3 extends the analysis in Chapter 2 by assessing how disruptions change when nutritional high-value foods are highly processed. For each of the two chapters, disruptions are studied in terms of changes in upstream and downstream quantities and prices, with the disruption of quantity considered primary while that of prices is secondary.Using the São Paulo food market as a case study, Chapter 4 analyses the effect of diesel price shocks on different segments of the nutritional high-value food supply chain. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) that takes into account upstream and downstream cross-price effects is estimated to ascertain if diesel price shocks are higher downstream based on price transmission theory.The results of Chapters 2 and 3 show that climatological disasters are the most dominant source of disruption of nutritional high-value food supply chains and the direction of impact is negative for all foods under study. The magnitude of disruption, however, varies by food. From the VECM results in Chapter 4, we see that the price of diesel has a positive and significant effect on food prices, while the effects downstream are lower than those upstream. These results have significant implications for the design and implementation of food policies in emerging countries.As a general introduction, Chapter 1 justifies the need to study upstream and downstream differences in the magnitude of supply chain disruption, by situating the dissertation in the existing supply chain and food price transmission literature. Chapter 5 concludes the study and offers suggestions for future research

Staple food prices rose sharply in 2007/2008, dropped slightly after July 2008, and rose again in 2010/2011. Since 2008, food prices have remained high, indicating a structural upward adjustment in food prices amidst excessive price volatility. The 2008 food price increases led to considerable media coverage and alarm among governments who implemented a variety of responses to protect their populations from food insecurity. At the start of the high food price crisis in May 2008, the African Union and New Partnership for Africa’s Development (AU/NEPAD) invited 16 African countries to a workshop in South Africa. The aim of the workshop was to assist selected African countries identify and formulate appropriate plans to mitigate food insecurity and manage rising food prices. This study set out to investigate whether the strategies implemented by national governments at the start of the crisis mitigated high food prices through improved risk management strategies in five African countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda and Uganda) and evaluated these strategies to see if they were included in the national agriculture and food security investment plans. To achieve this, the study set out to explore four sub-problems, namely: What was the impact of high food prices on populations in the five selected countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda and Uganda)? How did the five countries respond to the 2008 food price crisis with regard to providing for immediate needs and protecting vulnerable groups from food insecurity? How many early actions were included in country compacts and agriculture and food investment programmes? Do country investment plans include household risk management programmes that will protect vulnerable groups against high food prices in future? The involvement of the researcher in the AU/NEPAD workshop and his subsequent engagement with national government representatives provided a unique opportunity to analyse the iterative process of Country Investment Plan (CIP) development. This innovative and largely qualitative study integrated comparative, content and thematic analysis approaches, using the four elements of the Comprehensive Africa Agricultural Development Programme’s (CAADP) Framework for African Food Security (FAFS) to analyse the national plans. The study drew on available data from a wide variety of national, regional and international documents. Additional data were collected through a survey questionnaire completed by CAADP country focal persons. Data sourced from documents included Food Price Indices, country policy responses to high food prices, poverty and malnutrition indicators and the types of risk management strategies designed under CAADP. The study found that food prices increased across all five countries between 2007 and 2008, although the effects of the increases varied, being influenced by, among other factors, the proportion of national stocks purchased on the international market (i.e. net importers of staple crops), the availability of substitute staples on the domestic market and the magnitude of the difference between international and domestic market prices. The 2008 food price increases forced populations to spend a higher proportion of their income on food and eroded their purchasing power, impacting on the food security of these populations. Poor people adopted eroding consumption strategies that increased food insecurity. The impact of the high food prices on populations was determined by whether they were net food buyers or producers, the mix of staple commodities in their food basket and the proportion of income spent on food. As poor net food importing countries, imported staple foods became too costly, except in Uganda - a net exporter of food staples consumed in the surrounding countries. High food prices also provoked social unrest in Ethiopia and exacerbated political and economic instability in Kenya. Countries’ early responses to the food price crisis were varied and included responses that can be classified into three main categories, namely: Trade-oriented responses protected domestic stocks, reduced tariffs, restricted exports to reduce prices for consumers or increased domestic supply Consumer-oriented responses provided direct support to consumers and vulnerable groups in the form of, among others, food subsidies, social safety nets, tax reductions and price controls Producer-oriented responses provided incentives for farmers to increase production - using measures such as input subsidies and producer price support. Most responses were aimed at managing prices, suggesting that governments tried to protect citizens from price increases and buffer consumption reduction. Safety net programmes mitigated risks through the provision of food for immediate consumption. As a result, malnutrition levels unexpectedly decreased or remained static in these five countries, despite expectations and media claims that the number of hungry people would increase significantly. The early actions from the food price workshop plans were generally systematically translated into long-term programmes in the Compacts and Country Investment Plans. In Ethiopia, seven of eight early action plans were translated into the CIP, Kenya included three of eight, Malawi’s CIP included four of ten, and Rwanda included six of its ten early actions in their CIP programme, while Uganda included only six of thirteen early actions in their CIP. The study found that CIPs included risk management strategies, but these focused predominantly on improving early warning systems and crisis prevention. The risk management options largely included options for improving crisis prevention, followed by improving emergency responses and strengthening risk management policies and institutions. Only Kenya’s CIP included more risk management options for improving emergency responses – four of six risk management programmes. Despite expectations that programmes developed under CAADP FAFS would include all FAFS elements, CIPs lacked programmes to improve dietary quality. Only Rwanda’s CIP included nutrition programmes - three of six programmes in their CIP. The study concluded that while the proposed risk management strategies could mitigate risks associated with high food prices and offer some buffer for populations from food insecurity, the programmes are not comprehensive. The plans were generally weak regarding improving dietary quality through diversification of food consumption and production. Although the CIPs included risk management strategies, these strategies would not address risks in a comprehensive manner. More effective and coherent actions are still required to help the most food insecure populations cope with increasing high food prices and future price shocks; help developing country farmers respond to the opportunities offered by the rising demand for their products; and bring more stability in prices. The early food price response workshop seems to have influenced the development of programmes in the CAADP compact and CIPs, despite the fact that the workshop did not intend to assist countries with the development of comprehensive national investment plans. The large funding gaps in the CIPs constrain implementation of essential mitigation and development strategies and could leave countries vulnerable to the negative impacts of higher prices for consumers and threaten future household food security. The study recommends that countries invest in agriculture-led growth to boost domestic production and strengthen institutional capacities regarding national food stock reserves to reduce their dependency on imports and ensure food insecurity. National monitoring and evaluation systems need to be strengthened to evaluate and monitor the implementation of CIPs and to warn about future high food prices. Empirical estimation of the impact of price increases on households across all CAADP countries is needed to understand and monitor the impact of price changes and interventions.
Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2012.

博士
南華大學
企業管理系管理科學碩博士班
102
For food sales, the date of manufacture and the date of expiry are two reference indices for consumers in deciding whether to purchase a particular food product and the quantity to be purchased when they are in front of the shelves in a store. This paper looks at pricing of food products from a profit maximization perspective, and considers how a fresh food vendor should determine prices at each point in the sales period. The main content of Model 1 consists of the management implications of the nature and sensitivity analysis of the optimal price function of the model. 　　In the market, the problem of false labeling, where inferior products are passed off as superior products of the same type, is a commonly observed phenomenon. This form of consumer fraud can be generally divided into two types. In the first type, the inferior products are harmful to human health, whereas in the second type, the products pose no harm to human health. This paper refers to the latter as a “pure mislabeling problem” and the products involved as “pure mislabeled products.” This paper proposes a model (Model 2) that can be discussed specifically based on the factors that bring about or affect the problem of pure mislabeling. This model is used to facilitate further understanding of how the vendor’s profit maximizing ratio of mislabeled products affects prices and sales volumes in a cannibalized market at given points in time. Model 2 also shows how the changed product price and sales volume in turn influence the profit-maximizing ratio of mislabeled products at a subsequent point in time. The above mentioned relationship of mutual influence over time facilitates the understanding of whether a governmental health organization’s budget for vendor mislabeling inspection (i.e., the inspection frequency per unit time) is sufficient for preventing the occurrence of illegal mislabeling among vendors.

AbstractUrbanization is one of the major social changes in developing regions. This has influenced urban food insecurity and malnutrition in South Africa where poverty, unemployment and high food prices are dominant and influencing dietary change. The study considered dietary diversities and food security of households in four peri-urban settlements in South Africa through household surveys with 314 randomly selected households. Dietary diversity was generally low with high levels of food insecurity across the peri-urban sites, with male-headed households generally worse off than female-headed households. There was high dependence on food purchasing in all sites, although female-headed households were more likely than male-headed households to supplement food purchases with other food strategies such as urban agriculture, collection from open spaces and receiving donations. Food insecurity was associated with high poverty levels, unemployment and low education levels. A coherent response that effectively addresses food and nutrition insecurity challenges in peri-urban areas is an important component in addressing food insecurity in peri-urban settings of South Africa. Such a response should support localized and diverse “context specific” food systems which are sustainable and healthier and make food more affordable.

AbstractSmallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa produce much of the food consumed across the continent, yet with expected population growth, they will need to double production by 2050. Smallholders could significantly intensify production with the adoption of modern agricultural technologies, but many farmers are unable to find buyers willing to purchase their outputs at profitable prices. Meanwhile, buyers and traders have demand for agricultural goods but face high costs in finding farmers who can consistently supply goods with certified quality. Similarly, there is a lack of investment in food processing infrastructure because processors cannot reliably obtain produce as inputs to operations. These market failures typically manifest in the form of two development challenges: (1) there is a misalignment in the supply of and demand for the agricultural goods produced by smallholder farmers, and (2) smallholder farmers are often at a price disadvantage when it comes to knowledge of prices of their commodities. This case study measures the effect of introducing digital trading and market platforms (including price alerts, mobile phone-based trading platforms, and commodity exchanges) in Ghana, through a series of randomized control trials and quasi-experimental studies. Technologies like mobile price alerts (from Esoko) and a mobile phone-based trading platform (Kudu) are found to increase yam prices by 5%, with benefits for smallholder farmers. This increase declines over time, but there are net benefits for farmers as a result of “bargaining spillover.” The potential impacts of a new commodity exchange in Ghana are also discussed, exploring how this technology can influence the decisions of smallholder farmers, incentivizing them to produce higher-quality products.

AbstractThis chapter recognises that current food consumption patterns, often characterised by higher levels of food waste and a transition in diets towards higher energy, more resource-intensive foods, need to be transformed. Food systems in both developed and developing countries are changing rapidly. Increasingly characterised by a high degree of vertical integration, evolutions in food systems are being driven by new technologies that are changing production processes, distribution systems, marketing strategies, and the food products that people eat. These changes offer the opportunity for system-wide change in the way in which production interacts with the environment, giving greater attention to the ecosystem services offered by the food sector. However, developments in food systems also pose new challenges and controversies. Food system changes have responded to shifts in consumer preferences towards larger shares of more animal-sourced and processed foods in diets, raising concerns regarding the calorific and nutritional content of many food items. By increasing food availability, lowering prices and increasing quality standards, they have also induced greater food waste at the consumer end. In addition, the potential fast transmission of food-borne disease, antimicrobial resistance and food-related health risks throughout the food chain has increased, and the ecological footprint of the global food system continues to grow in terms of energy, resource use, and impact on climate change. The negative consequences of food systems from a nutritional, environmental and livelihood perspective are increasingly being recognised by consumers in some regions. With growing consumer awareness, driven by concerns about the environmental and health impacts of investments and current supply chain technologies and practices, as well as by a desire among new generations of city dwellers to reconnect with their rural heritage and use their own behaviour to drive positive change, opportunities exist to define and establish added-value products that are capable of internalising social or environmental delivery within their price. These forces can be used to fundamentally reshape food systems by stimulating coordinated government action in changing the regulatory environment that, in turn, incentivises improved private sector investment decisions. Achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems is complex and requires a multi-pronged approach. Actions necessary include awareness-raising, behaviour change interventions in food environments, food education, strengthened urban-rural linkages, improved product design, investments in food system innovations, public-private partnerships, public procurement, and separate collection that enables alternative uses of food waste, all of which can contribute to this transition. Local and national policy-makers and small- and large-scale private sector actors have a key role in both responding to and shaping the market opportunities created by changing consumer demands.

AbstractThe development and scaling out of flash-dryer innovations for more efficient, small-scale production of high-quality cassava flour (HQCF) and starch is described. The diagnoses of cassava-processing SMEs (small and medium enterprises) revealed their energy expenditures for drying were considerably higher than those of large-scale industrial companies, which was mostly due to suboptimal design of flash-drying systems. As a result, small-scale production of cassava starch and HQCF often incurs high production costs, incompatible with market prices of final products. Taking stock of this situation, RTB scientists have developed several innovations to optimize energy efficiency and costs, including a longer drying pipe, reengineered heat exchanger, larger blower for higher air velocity, and a higher product/air ratio. This was based on numerical modelling to determine the key design features of energy-efficient flash dryers, followed by construction and demonstration of a pilot-scale prototype. As a result, improved small-scale flash dryers are now being scaled out to the private sector in various countries, using the Scaling Readiness framework and achieving 10–15% gains in productivity and incomes. A method for diagnosis of process efficiency is also described, to identify technical bottlenecks and to document and measure the outcomes and impacts during the implementation of scaling-out projects.

AbstractIn a business, inventory is frequently known as a source of contention. PT Petrokimia Gresik (PKG) is PT Pupuk Indonesia’s (Persero) subsidiary, an agro-industry company that the government always requires to meet national fertilizer supply to ensure food security and perform more efficient and cost-effective cost savings, through more efficient and economical use of facilities and infrastructure, including inventory management. At PKG, one of the most crucial inventory management issues is coal inventories, which have lately experienced a price increase of more than 200%. The trend of global coal prices has climbed to 2 times higher since 2021. The price of coal in Indonesia has risen from Rp. 500,000 per ton to Rp. 1,500,000 per ton, not to mention the world’s current state of war, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has increased fuel prices worldwide, including coal, which is in high demand by utility companies in Indonesia. While PT Petrokimia Gresik must continue to produce despite rising coal prices, inventory must be managed to achieve the lowest possible cost. Adopting the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) method to improve the coal inventory management system needs to be considered. EOQ is an old theory, but we believe it is still relevant today. We will compare the company’s current coal inventory management to the EOQ method regarding efficiency, efficacy, and expenses associated with reordering, storage, and other factors. The study concludes that PKG’s coal supply system is relatively good, although there is still potential for improvement. The inventory management policies that are in place still refer to the prior period’s experience. Several causes contribute to coal overstock and understock issues, including a coal supply planning system that is not yet optimal. The proposed future improvement is to employ the Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) approach, which can save Rp 684,000,000 per year (average) in inventory expenditures. This demonstrates that the EOQ approach can save 6.7% per year in costs.

AbstractRice is a type of food commodity whose demand is constantly increasing because rice is the staple food for the majority of the population of Indonesia. The high demand for rice creates competition among rice-producing companies in Indonesia. Companies need to apply a strategic marketing concept. The marketing concept aims to satisfy customer wants and needs, creating loyalty. The emergence of satisfaction from a customer is based on the marketing mix. The marketing mix includes the 4Ps: product, price, place, and promotion. This study aims to determine: (1) the marketing mix strategy for BerasKita Products Perum Bulog Regional Division North Sumatra and (2) SWOT analysis for the marketing mix strategy (product, price, place, and promotion) on the product of BerasKita Products Perum Bulog Regional Division North Sumatra. This study used a qualitative descriptive approach to collect data from observations, interviews, and documentation. This study will then show marketing strategies to maintain and increase the number of customers and maintain product sales of BerasKita Products Perum Bulog Regional Division North Sumatra.

AbstractIndia’s transformation of its food system from a highly deficient one in the mid-1960s to one that is self-reliant and marginally surplus now is a success story that holds lessons for many smallholder economies in Africa and south and south-east Asia. India has emerged as the largest producer of milk, spices, cotton and pulses; the second largest producer of wheat, rice, fruits and vegetables; the third largest producer of eggs; and the fifth largest producer of poultry meat. It is also the largest exporter of rice, spices and bovine meat. All of this became possible with an infusion of new technologies, innovative institutional engineering, and the right incentives. However, as India looks towards 2030 and beyond, its food system faces many challenges ranging from increasing pressure on natural resources (soils, water, air, forests) to climate change to fragmenting land holdings, increasing urbanisation, and high rates of malnutrition amongst children. To meet these challenges successfully, India needs a proper mix of policies- from the subsidy-driven to the investment-driven, from price policy to income policy, promoting agricultural diversification towards more nutritious food. It also needs to incentivise its private sector to build efficient and inclusive value chains, giving due importance to environmental sustainability. More innovative technologies, from green-to-gene, increasing digitalisation, the Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence, would be needed to ‘produce more from less’ with a goal of feeding the most populous nation on this planet by 2030 in a sustainable manner.

Abstract With the inevitable risk posed by global climate change affecting crop yield and the ever-increasing demands of agricultural produce, crop improvement techniques need to be more precise in developing smart crop varieties. The rice crop, a staple food for the majority of the world population, has a significant role to play in alleviating the global hunger problem. With the world population burgeoning at an unprecedented rate, limited fertile land resources, climate change, emerging new races of pests and diseases and consumer preferences for quality attributes, it is imperative to increase crop diversity, and this requires better selection efficiency addressing the challenges of future rice production. Mutation breeding is a fundamental and very successful tool helping to increase crop diversity and allowing plant breeders to exercise their skill in developing desirable crop varieties. The induction of mutations has been used to enhance yield, improve nutritional quality and widen the adaptability of the world's most important crops such as wheat, rice, pulses, millets and oilseeds. India is considered to be one of the primary centres of origin of crop species with the concomitant very high genetic diversity in traditional landraces for different agronomic traits of economic importance. Plant architecture, such as plant height, branching habit (tiller number), leaf shape and patterns, floral and grain traits and quality traits such as aroma, amylose content and cooking quality are of tremendous importance for rice improvement programmes. Traditional landraces of rice have premium grain quality, fetching a premium price, but their cultivation is being marginalized due to their tall stature, proneness to lodging, late maturity and poor yield. Mutation breeding technology has been successfully implemented in rice improvement programmes, which have resulted in the improvement of aromatic rice varieties, such as 'Pusa Basmati 1', 'Dubraj and Jawaphool'. Two high-yielding mutant rice varieties, TCDM-1 ('Trombay Chhattisgarh Dubraj Mutant-1') and TKR Kolam ('Trombay Karjat Rice Kolam'), have been released for cultivation in Chhattisgarh and the Konkan region of Maharashtra. Both these varieties possess dwarf plant stature (110 cm), medium maturity (130 days), premium grain quality and resistance to major pests and diseases. Improvement of other traditional rice varieties is underway which will bring these varieties back into cultivation and help in improving the tribal and marginal farmers' economy.

When did high food prices become a political issue? Most recently high food prices became an intense political issue in 2007–2008, when international market prices for rice, wheat, and corn all spiked sharply upward at the same time. By April 2008, the price of maize...

Main purpose of this research is trying to understand food likeliness of Taiwan college students, and probe whether these food are healthy. Three survey steps are taken as: step 1, market survey for what kind of foods are selling around the campuses; step 2, questionnaire investigation for students food preference; step 3, analyzing whether these favorite foods are healthy or not. The result shows: major consideration for students food selection are “taste” and “price”; 63% of students are taking food or snacks late at night at least once a week. Top three most favorite foods are: Taiwanese fries (yan su ji), carbon grilled chicken and fried fish steaks. Quantities of these foods are small, prices are low, and easy access from roadside food stands. Problems of them are high calories, easy to accumulate free radical in human body, plus insanitary food processing environment. They are harmful to student health. We suggest Taiwan government take it seriously.

Today, more than 70% of people live in and around cities. Existing urban and regional food systems are unsustainable and society expects and demands change. In order to help prevent and reduce food waste, reduce the environmental impact of food production and food waste, and promote access to healthy food for all, it is essential to design and develop smart, food-oriented food chains. Therefore, the involvement of local entrepreneurs, municipalities and citizens in the development of the food security ecosystem of cities and regions is important. Involvement in local food supply chains allows businesses to increase the added value of their products and make farmers less vulnerable to market risks by reducing the number of intermediaries through diversification and better price control, guaranteeing less asymmetric relationships with customers. Municipalities promote the consumption of quality products through green public procurement of food and thus reduce the risk of obesity and chronic diseases, but in the long run the costs of health care. In Latvia, according to the data of 2019, only 3% of biologically certified farms sold their products through public procurement, incl. purchase of school catering. The aim of this study is to identify barriers and possible solutions for increasing the share of local organic food purchased by mainstream schools. The study finds that the role of local organic food in green public procurement and its impact on territorial development is linked to environmental, social and economic benefits. The main obstacles to participating in GPP tenders and winning the tender were: 1) the quantity and range of products required (division of goods into lots), as well as the purchase prices of organic products; 2) high bureaucratic burden for “small” producers, complex Electronic Procurement System and tender submission criteria; 3 cal organic food is more expensive than imported; 4) limited financial resources; 5) insufficient amount of food produced. There were significant communication gaps between stakeholders regarding GPP, as well as a lack of knowledge about the organic market and how to implement GPP.

Madagascar has a population of over 28,000,000 people, of which 48% are food insecure, and 80% are involved in agriculture (reliefweb.int, 2022). Madagascar's prevalence of stunting in children under 5 years is 41.5% (Global-nutrition report, 2018). Additionally, UNICEF reports that drought in the southern region will increase acute childhood malnutrition fourfold over their 2020 assessment. Soybean, a nutrient dense ingredient for human and animal consumption, may ameliorate undernutrition in Madagascar. Traditionally, soybean meal and oil were imported at an annual rate of approximately 50,000 metric tons of meal, and 75,000 liters of edible oil. More recent hikes in transportation costs and 30% tariffs, make production of quality feed, and edible oil from imported oilseeds impractical. To improve nutrition and farmer livelihoods, soybean must be locally cultivated and processed. Madagascar is suited to grow soybean with 8 million HA of cultivable land (FAO 2016) and average rainfall of 1,500 mm during a 6-month rainy season. AGRIVAL is a Malagasy animal feed company, serving smallholder poultry growers. In reaction to increasing prices for imported soybean, the company created a 5-year strategy to strengthen its feed production capacity, expand processing to edible oils, and purchase locally grown soybean from Malagasy smallholder farmers. Contracts for new equipment include an oil expeller. Agrival partnered with Cultivating New Frontiers in Africa (CNFA) and the Soybean Innovation Lab (SIL) to grow soybeans and requests technical assistance with meal and oil production from their partnership with AOCS, under the Farmer-to-Farmer USAID program. To date, farmers have been trained and are growing soybeans in Madagascar. Agrival requests technical assistance from oilseed industry professionals, to better incorporate newly arriving equipment, and ramp up high-quality production. This Project will produce high-quality, lower priced animal and human food for the Malagasy people and create thousands of jobs in agriculture and industry.

The existence of fried onion processing SMEs has a very important role in the community's economy, this is because of the integration of the upstream and downstream sectors. Fried onion SMEs in Nganjuk Regency have two basic problems, namely limited production capacity and inconsistent quality of fried onions produced. The limited production capacity of fried onion SMEs is due to the fact that SMEs do not yet have adequate frying equipment and the quality inconsistency of fried onions is caused by an imperfect drying process. The purpose of this study is to analyze the internal and external conditions of Fried Onion SMEs in Nganjuk Regency. The method used in this research is SWOT analysis. Fried onion SMEs in Nganjuk Regency with their fried onion products have strengths including Strategic Business Locations, Regional Food Products, Product Prices According to Market, and Affordable Prices. This Fried Onion UKM has the opportunity to increase its competitiveness by optimizing opportunities such as Production Capacity Capable of Meeting the Market, Sufficient Manpower Available, Public Purchasing Power for Relatively High Products, Aid Programs from the Government, and Training Provided by the Local Government in collaboration. Meanwhile, the threats from SMEs are Fluctuating Raw Material Prices, Quite A Number of Competitors for Similar Products, and Differences in Pricing with Competitors.

Abstract Three-dimensional (3D) food printing has grown exponentially in recent years due to its capabilities for customized food designs, minimal food waste, and personalized nutrition. A current challenge in 3D food printing is the design of extrudable food materials that enable customized shape fabrication and retention due to the complexity of food matrices. Additives such as starches and gums have been employed to improve food mechanical properties and thus printability, however, few studies have investigated further food additives that may affect the manufacturability and lifecycle of printed foods. This study investigates the effect of pea protein, corn starch, citric acid, and butter powder when added in different concentrations on the firmness, total work, and shape stability of mashed potato and pumpkin. Results suggest that pea protein addition increases the firmness and total work, citric acid decreases them, while butter powder and corn starch affect mechanics differently depending on the base material. Overall, the addition of butter powder had the best results for printability and shape retention, with a complete design space analysis suggesting prints should have firmness of at least 150g for high shape stability. Knowledge of food additive effects on texture and shape retention of foods can positively influence the design and manufacturing of personalized foods by reducing reliance on trial-and-error design processes to design new food products.

This paper reviews the change in energy efficiency of lighting technology during the 30-year period between the energy crises of the 1970’s oil embargo and last year’s de-regulated wholesale market, electricity price spikes. Lighting power requirements have been cut in half for new commercial buildings, dropping from 3 to 1.5 watts or less per square foot of conditioned space. Fluorescent lighting technology has changed from four-foot T-12 lamps requiring 40 watts, to high-lumen, 32-watt T-8 lamps. Copper intensive and noisy magnetic ballasts have been replaced with lightweight, high frequency electronic ballasts lowering power from 10 to one watt per fixture. Today this trend continues with the movement away from Edison’s incandescent lamp to compact fluorescent lamps (CFL) that save 70% of the electrical energy. In response to the wholesale electricity prices spikes, the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance partnered with regional electric utilities and retail stores to offer CFL discount coupons. As a result, CFL sales rose from about 500,000 in 2000 to over 8 million in 2001. This is one more example of how energy efficiency programs sponsored by the nation’s electric utilities have driven both technology and the market to change.

Covid-19 pandemic is a global health issue that adversely affected every sector of the world’s economy. Fruits are known to be a source of vitamins providing the body with necessary defense against infections (inclusive of Coronaviruses). Nigerians prefer to buy ready-to-eat (RTE) fruits than whole fruits due to their high prices. Consumer perception of RTE fruits sold in Ogun and Lagos, Nigeria during the Covid-19 pandemic months in 2020 and within January and March 2021 via an online survey were compared. Ogun and Lagos states were selected because they represent major entry routes for land and air travel into Nigeria respectively. 500 respondents were obtained with 49.7% each as male and female respectively in Ogun state while Lagos had 49.5% and 50.5% of the male and female gender. In addition, the predominant age group that responded to the questionnaire falls within 21 – 30 with 49.7% in Ogun state and 54.1% in Lagos state. 96.1% of the respondents in Ogun state had a tertiary education while 99% was recorded to possess tertiary education in Lagos state. 34% respondents took RTE fruits 2- 3 times a week, 31.2% less than once a week while only 2.8% took RTE fruits 4 – 5 times a week. From the survey, 84% of the respondents were aware that fruits possess needed vitamins to fight infections while only 87.4% of the respondent were aware of fruit borne poisoning and have knowledge of fruit borne pathogens like Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiellaspp, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Penicilliumspp, Aspergillusnigerand Rhizopusstolonifer. This study shows that fruit consumers neglected health consciousness in the purchase of RTE fruits in Ogun and Lagos in the first 3 months of 2021 compared to 2020. This negligence may result in a spike of another Covid-19 wave in Ogun and Lagos if the necessary food and health regulatory authorities fail to act timely. Also, the application of an effective hazard analysis and critical control point (HACCP) application reduces the chance of contamination of ready- to- eat fruits.

Abstract 3D food printing has received high attention in personalized meal production and customized food designs in recent years due to its potential advantages over traditional food manufacturing methods. A current challenge in 3D food printing is the design of extrudable food materials that enable customized shape fabrication and retention. Additives such as starches and gums have been employed to improve food printability, however, these often detrimentally affect taste, texture, and nutrients. Our study explores the printability and shape fidelity of mashed potatoes when adding protein-rich cricket and pea protein powders. Different percentages of these additives (5%, 15%, and 30%) with varied water to protein ratios (0, 1, 2, and 3) were added to 100g of mashed potatoes. Mashed potatoes with the addition of cricket powder and pea powder provided the highest fidelity prints for water to additive ratios of 2 and 3, respectively. Rheological testing demonstrated these high-fidelity prints had complex modulus values ranging from 15Pa to 25Pa. Trade-offs were explored between print fidelity, complex modulus, and protein content for mashed potatoes with cricket protein that highlighted the relative trade-offs in 3D food printing recipes. These findings demonstrate that a design space including shape fidelity, printability, and nutritional profile provides rich trade-offs for promoting user satisfaction and health, thereby providing designers new opportunities to leverage 3D food printing to provide value for consumer needs and health.

Fruits and vegetables have a high importance from two points of view: for the consumer it represents a healthy and nutritious food and for the national economy it represents a key sector that gives added value to the agricultural sector. The importance of the paper comes from the dominant position of the fruit and vegetable in agriculture, but also their need to be consumed daily, so a comprehensive statistical analysis was performed to identify the evolution and main qualitative aspects that describe the state of this market. The purpose of the paper is to determine the level of the fruit and vegetable market, both in quantitative and value terms. The study focuses on the available quantities that address to human consumption, to which are added the imports necessary to cover the constant needs of consumers throughout the year, considering the seasonal aspect of Romanian agriculture. The applicative part of the paper involves a statistical analysis to determine the evolution and size of fruit and vegetable categories on the Romanian and international agricultural trade. The main conclusions aim that the sector is characterized by volatility, production and price fluctuate, and supply stability is achieved through imports that have increased annually

The depletion of global crude oil reserves, increases in fossil fuel prices and environmental issues have encouraged the search for and study of bio-derived fuels. For years, fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) have already been used successfully. High-quality hydrogenated vegetable oil and Fischer-Tropsch biofuels have also been developed. Fuel refining processes, however, consume energy increasing CO2 emissions. For profitability reasons, large-scale industrial production is also required. Several distributed energy producers are instead willing to utilize various local waste materials as fuel feedstock. The target is local fuel production without any complicated manufacturing processes. Crude bio-oils are therefore also interesting fuel options, in particular for medium-speed diesel engines capable of burning such bio-oils without any major problems. Nevertheless, waste-derived crude bio-oils have also been studied in Finland in high-speed non-road diesel engines. One option has been mustard seed oil (MSO). Mustard has been cultivated in fallow fields. Non-food mustard seeds have been used for fuel manufacturing. In the performed studies with MSO, the exhaust smoke and HC emissions decreased, NOx remained approximately constant, and the thermal efficiency was competitive compared with operation on ordinary diesel fuel oil (DFO). The number of exhaust particles tended, however, to increase and deposits were formed in the combustion chamber, particularly if the engine was also run at low loads with MSO. On the whole, the results were so promising that deeper analyses of engine operation with MSO were considered reasonable. The kinematic viscosity of crude bio-oils is much higher than that of FAMEs or DFO. Consequently, the injection pressure tends to increase especially at the injection pump side of an in-line injection pump system. The flow characteristics of crude bio-oil also differ from those of DFO in the high-pressure pipe. With bio-oil, the flow seems to be laminar. The bulk modulus of bio-oils is also different from that of DFO affecting the rate of the injection pressure rise. In the present study, a turbocharged, inter-cooled direct-injection non-road diesel engine was driven with a mixture of MSO (95%) and rape seed methyl ester (RME, 5%), and standard DFO. The engine was equipped with an in-line injection pump. First, the injection pressures at pump and injector ends of the high-pressure injection pipe were measured for both fuels as a function of crank angle. Furthermore, a model was created for the injection system based on the method of characteristics. Free software called Scilab was adopted for numerical simulation of the model. Despite a few limitations in the built model, the results showed clear trends and the model can be used to predict changes in the fuel injection process when the fuel is changed.

Given the importance of climate change and the increase of its severity under extreme weather events, we analyze the main drivers of high food prices in Colombia between 1985 and 2020 focusing on extreme weather shocks like a strong El Ni˜no.We estimate a non-stationary extreme value model for Colombian food prices. Our findings suggest that perishable foods are more exposed to extreme weather conditions in comparison to processed foods. In fact, an extremely low precipitation level explains only high prices in perishable foods. The risk of high perishable food prices is significantly larger for low rainfall levels (dry seasons) compared to high precipitation levels (rainy seasons). This risk gradually results in higher perishable food prices. It is non linear and is also significantly larger than the risk related to changes in the US dollar-Colombian peso exchange rate and fuel prices. Those covariates also explain high prices for both perishable and processed foods. Finally, we find that the events associated with the strongest El Ni˜no in 1988 and 2016 are expected to reoccur once every 50 years.

This report from the Foodprint Melbourne research project presents a roadmap of strategies and policy approaches for strengthening the resilience of Melbourne’s food system to shocks and stresses. It focuses particularly on shocks and stresses related to climate change and pandemic, but also considers underlying food system stresses, such as high levels of food waste and declining supplies of the natural resources that underpin food production. The combined effects of these shocks and stresses undermine the resilience of food systems, drive up food prices and increase food insecurity. The report identifies six key areas of opportunity for action to strengthen the resilience of Melbourne’s food system to future shocks and stresses.

Malawi has made significant progress in improving nutrition outcomes in the past decades. Despite this, the rates of stunting and anaemia remain high and overweight and obesity amongst women is rising. Malawi remains one of the most committed countries to nutrition, ranking 3rd out of 45 African countries on the Hunger and Nutrition Commitment Index, but effective implementation of policies is still challenging. Progress is being inhibited by a lack of dedicated budget lines for nutrition at district level, over reliance on external donors, poor coordination and competing priorities for limited resources within sectoral budgets. The pandemic, climate change and the Ukraine war have disrupted food systems, increased prices of fuel, fertilizer, and food, and caused loss of harvest and livelihoods, threatening to reverse decades of progress. Positive and coordinated action is needed to increase financial commitment to food and nutrition security, ensure nutrition is prioritised in the nation’s economic and development agenda, and continue Malawi’s progress to reducing malnutrition.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Protein has a singularly prominent place in discussions about food. It symbolises fitness, strength and masculinity, motherhood and care. It is the preferred macronutrient of affluence and education, the mark of a conscientious diet in wealthy countries and of wealth and success elsewhere. Through its association with livestock it stands for pastoral beauty and tradition. It is the high-tech food of science fiction, and in discussions of changing agricultural systems it is the pivotal nutrient around which good and bad futures revolve. There is no denying that we need protein and that engaging with how we produce and consume it is a crucial part of our response to the environmental crises. But discussions of these issues are affected by their cultural context—shaped by the power of protein. Given this, we argue that it is vital to map that cultural power and understand its origins. This paper explores the history of nutritional science and international development in the Global North with a focus on describing how protein gained its cultural meanings. Starting in the first half of the 19th century and running until the mid-1970s, it covers two previous periods when protein rose to singular prominence in food discourse: in the nutritional science of the late-19th century, and in international development in the post-war era. Many parallels emerge, both between these two eras and in comparison with the present day. We hope that this will help to illuminate where and why the symbolism and story of protein outpace the science—and so feed more nuanced dialogue about the future of food.

The overall theme of this project was to increase the speed of analysis for monitoring pesticide residues in food. Traditionally, analytical methods for multiple pesticides are time-consuming, expensive, laborious, wasteful, and ineffective to meet critical needs related to food safety. Faster and better methods were needed to provide more cost-effective detection of chemical contaminants, and thus provide a variety of benefits to agriculture. This overarching goal to speed and improve pesticide analysis was successfully accomplished even beyond what was originally proposed by the investigators in 1998. At that time, the main objectives of this project were: 1) to further develop a direct sample introduction (DSI) device that enables fast sampling and introduction of blended-only agricultural products for analysis by gas chromatography (GC); 2) to evaluate, establish, and further develop the method of simultaneous pulsed flame photometric detector (PFPD) and mass spectrometry (MS) detection for enhanced pesticide identification capabilities; and 3) to develop a new and novel MS pesticide analysis method, based on the use of supersonic molecular beams (SMB) for sampling and ionization. The first and third objectives were successfully accomplished as proposed, and the feasibility of the second objective was already demonstrated. The capabilities of the GC/SMB-MS approach alone were so useful for pesticide analysis that the simultaneous use of a PFPD was considered superfluous. Instead, the PFPD was investigated in combination with an electron-capture detector for low-cost, simultaneous analysis of organophosphorus and organochlorine pesticides in fatty foods. Three important, novel research projects not originally described in the proposal were also accomplished: 1) development of the quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe (QuEChERS) method for pesticides in foods; 2) development and optimization of a method using low-pressure (LP) GC/MS to speed pesticide residue analysis; and 3) innovative application of analyte protectants to improve the GC analysis of important problematic pesticides. All of the accomplishments from this project are expected to have strong impact to the analytical community and implications to agriculture and food safety. For one, an automated DSI approach has become commercially available in combination with GC/MS for the analysis of pesticide residues. Meanwhile, the PFPD has become the selective detector of choice for the analysis of organophosphorus pesticides. Great strides were made in SMB-MS through the manufacture of a prototype "Supersonic GC/MS" instrument, which displayed many advantages over commercial GC/MS instruments. Most notably, the QuEChERS method is already being disseminated to routine monitoring labs and has shown great promise to improve pesticide analytical capabilities and increase lab productivity. The implications of these developments to agriculture will be to increase the percentage of food monitored and the scope of residues detected in the food, which will serve to improve food safety. Developed and developing countries alike will be able to use these methods to lower costs and improve results, thus imported/exported food products will have better quality without affecting price or availability. This will help increase trade between nations and mitigate certain disputes over residue levels in imported foods. The improved enforcement of permissible residue levels provided by these methods will have the effect to promote good agricultural practices among previously obstinate farmers who felt no repercussions from illegal or harmful practices. Furthermore, the methods developed can be used in the field to analyze samples quickly and effectively, or to screen for high levels of dangerous chemicals that may intentionally or accidentally appear in the food supply.

Bread consumption has a stable increase in the territory of Russia and in particular in the Ulyanovsk and Samara regions. Bread, as a fairly low-priced product, is in high demand among consumers, but this product is not biologically saturated with useful substances, therefore, in modern production, a number of techniques are used to increase the nutritional and biological value of these types of products. In our work, one of these methods will be considered - the introduction of lentil flour into dough preparations. The problem is that the state policy regarding import substitution, aimed at replacing food additives produced abroad, necessitates the use of food additives or raw materials of natural origin produced in the territory of the Russian Federation, and the lack of development of regulatory and technological documentation in this direction is a significant problem for public enterprises. nutrition. Purpose - to carry out the development of a recipe for a test semi-finished product produced with the addition of lentil flour, as a product with a preventive purpose Results: based on the results of the study, a recipe for a test semi-finished product was developed, produced with the addition of lentil flour, as a product with a preventive purpose.