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Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Foreign exchange rates – Spain – Econometric models »

Auteur : Grafiati

Publié le 10 mars 2023

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Foreign exchange rates – Spain – Econometric models"

Chen, An-Sing, et Mark T. Leung. « Dynamic Foreign Currency Trading Guided by Adaptive Forecasting ». Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 01, n^o 03 (septembre 1998) : 383–418. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219091598000247.

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The difficulty in predicting exchange rates has been a long-standing problem in international finance as most standard econometric methods are unable to produce significantly better forecasts than the random walk model. Recent studies provide some evidence for the ability of multivariate time-series models to generate better forecasts. At the same time, artificial neural network models have been emerging as alternatives to predict exchange rates. In this paper we propose a nonlinear forecast model combining the neural network with the multivariate econometric framework. This hybrid model contains two forecasting stages. A time series approach based on Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) models is applied to the first stage of forecasting. The estimates from BVAR are then used by the nonparametric General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) to generate enhanced forecasts. To evaluate the economic impact of forecasts, we develop a set of currency trading rules guided by these models. The optimal conditions implied by the investment rules maximize the expected profits given the expected changes in exchange rates and the interest rate differentials between domestic and foreign countries. Both empirical and simulation experiments suggest that the proposed nonlinear adaptive forecasting model not only produces better forecasts but also results in higher investment returns than other types of models. The effect of risk aversion is also considered in the investment simulation.

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ZIMMERMANN, GEORG, RALPH NEUNEIER et RALPH GROTHMANN. « MULTI-AGENT MARKET MODELING OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES ». Advances in Complex Systems 04, n^o 01 (mars 2001) : 29–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s021952590100005x.

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A market mechanism is basically driven by a superposition of decisions of many agents optimizing their profit. The macroeconomic price dynamic is a consequence of the cumulated excess demand/supply created on this micro level. The behavior analysis of a small number of agents is well understood through the game theory. In case of a large number of agents one may use the limiting case that an individual agent does not have an influence on the market, which allows the aggregation of agents by statistic methods. In contrast to this restriction, we can omit the assumption of an atomic market structure, if we model the market through a multi-agent approach. The contribution of the mathematical theory of neural networks to the market price formation is mostly seen on the econometric side: neural networks allow the fitting of high dimensional nonlinear dynamic models. Furthermore, in our opinion, there is a close relationship between economics and the modeling ability of neural networks because a neuron can be interpreted as a simple model of decision making. With this in mind, a neural network models the interaction of many decisions and, hence, can be interpreted as the price formation mechanism of a market.

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Ahmed, KHATTAB, et SALMI Yahya. « Modeling Sources of Asymmetry in the Volatility of the Moroccan Dirham Exchange Rate ». Applied Economics and Finance 8, n^o 4 (26 juillet 2021) : 31. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/aef.v8i4.5232.

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The main objective of this paper is to study the sources of asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral exchange rates of the Moroccan dirham (MAD), against the EUR and the USD using the asymmetric econometric models of the ARCH-GARCH family. An empirical analysis was conducted on daily central bank data from March 2003 to March 2021, with a sample size of 4575 observations. Central bank intervention in the foreign exchange (interbank) market was found to affect the asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral EUR/MAD and USD/MAD exchange rates. Specifically, sales of foreign exchange reserves by the monetary authority cause a fall in the exchange rate, which means that the market response to shocks is asymmetric. Finally, the selection criterion (AIC) allowed us to conclude that the asymmetric model AR(1)-TGARCH(1,1) is adequate for modeling the volatility of the exchange rate of the Moroccan dirham.

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Panda, Ajaya Kumar, Swagatika Nanda, Vipul Kumar Singh et Satish Kumar. « Evidence of leverage effects and volatility spillover among exchange rates of selected emerging and growth leading economies ». Journal of Financial Economic Policy 11, n^o 2 (7 mai 2019) : 174–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfep-03-2018-0042.

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Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the evidences of leverage effects on the conditional volatility of exchange rates because of asymmetric innovations and its spillover effects among the exchange rates of selected emerging and growth-leading economies. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis uses the sign bias test and asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to capture the leverage effects on conditional volatility of exchange rates and also uses multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) model to address volatility spillovers among the studied exchange rates. Findings The study finds substantial impact of asymmetric innovations (news) on the conditional volatility of exchange rates, where Russian Ruble is showing significant leverage effect followed by Indian Rupee. The exchange rates depict significant mean spillover effects, where Rupee, Peso and Ruble are strongly connected; Real, Rupiah and Lira are moderately connected; and Yuan is the least connected exchange rate within the sample. The study also finds the assimilation of information in foreign exchanges and increased spillover effects in the post 2008 periods. Practical implications The results probably have the implications for international investment and asset management. Portfolio managers could use this research to optimize their international portfolio. Policymakers such as central banks may find the study useful to monitor and design interventions strategies in foreign exchange markets keeping an eye on the nature of movements among these exchange rates. Originality/value This is one of the few empirical research studies that aim to explore the leverage effects on exchange rates and their volatility spillovers among seven emerging and growth-leading economies using advanced econometric methodologies.

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Bozhechkova, A. V., S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev et P. V. Trunin. « Factors of the Russian ruble exchange rate dynamics in the 2000s and 2010s ». Voprosy Ekonomiki, n^o 8 (3 août 2020) : 5–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2020-8-5-22.

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The article discusses the key factors of the ruble exchange rate dynamics, analyzes the features of Russian currency market in the context of inflation targeting and the application of the budget rule. The basic theoretical approaches to modeling the dynamics of real and nominal exchange rates are presented, including behavioral models of the exchange rate, the monetary model of the exchange rate, and the hypothesis of uncovered interest parity. The most important factors of long-term and short-term dynamics of the exchange rate are revealed. The results of an econometric evaluation of the models of the real and nominal ruble exchange rates using dynamic least squares method (DOLS) are presented. It is shown that the key factors shaping the dynamics of the nominal ruble exchange rate are the terms of trade, the interest rate spread, the VIX volatility index, and the operations of the Russian Ministry of Finance under the budget rule. The long-term trajectory of the real exchange rate is formed by the terms of trade conditions, the Balassa—Samuelson effect, the dynamics of net foreign assets of the private sector.

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Hacioglu, Umit, Hasan Dincer et Ismail Erkan Celik. « Conflict Risk and Its Implication on Economy and Financial System ». International Journal of Finance & ; Banking Studies (2147-4486) 2, n^o 2 (16 novembre 2016) : 109. http://dx.doi.org/10.20525/ijfbs.v2i2.638.

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<p>Considering the impacts of the conflict on the economic parameters in terms of macroeconomics, the following factors might affect the profitability of the company: foreign capital outflows, decrease in exports, increase in the interest rates, disruption of the investment climate, increase in the exchange rates, increase in the costs of import entry etc. Due to the expectable decrease in profit shares as to the investors, the contraction in the risk appetite will cause volatility in the prices of equity securities markets based on the impacts of the conflict, and the equity securities will depreciate. In this study, the main contributions on conflict risk and related econometric models have been discussed.</p>

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SALİHOĞLU, Esengül. « The Effects Of The Exchange Rate On Foreign Trade Performance In Countries With Foreign Trade Deficit ». İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi 11, n^o 3 (30 septembre 2022) : 1712–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1143215.

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Exchange rates have become increasingly important as the rise of free trade has been supported by globalization and technological developments. In flexible exchange rate systems, the exchange rate is expected to affect the volume of foreign trade and thus aggregate output. In this context, it is important to understand the relationship between the exchange rate and foreign trade in economic policy implementation. The aim of this study is to contribute to the literature by comparatively analyzing the relationship between exchange rates and foreign trade volumes in selected countries. Accordingly, the relationship between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and import and export volumes of the eight countries with the largest foreign trade deficits in 2020 (USA, UK, India, France, Turkiye, Egypt, Philippines, and Pakistan) is estimated using monthly data for the period January 2003–January 2022. By including the REER as a proxy for the exchange rate in the analysis, domestic prices and prices in the trading countries, which are important determinants of foreign trade, are also considered. The heterogeneous structure of the countries and the horizontal cross-sectional dependence between the series are taken into account in the choice of the analysis method. In the analysis using new generation econometric methods compatible with the characteristics of the series, CADF and CIPS unit root tests are followed by Westerlund's (2008) Durbin-Hausman Cointegration Test, then Pesaran's (2006) Common Correlated Effects (CCE) Estimator and Emirmahmutoglu and Kose's (2011) Panel Causality Test are applied.The findings of the analysis are listed as follows. According to the results of the cointegration test, a cointegration relationship was found between the REER and import and export volume in all countries included in the analysis. Then, the long-run coefficients of the models were estimated. According to the CCE estimation results, export volume is negatively affected by the REER in the long run, while import and export volumes are positively affected by each other. According to the Panel Fisher test statistics of the Panel Causality Test, there is a bidirectional causality relationship between export volume and the REER. The bidirectional relationship between the REER and foreign trade volumes in the short run indicates that the interaction between the variables is cyclical.

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Pluskota, Anna. « Makroekonomiczne determinanty ryzyka kredytowego w Polsce ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem kursów walut obcych ». Finanse i Prawo Finansowe 3, n^o 31 (30 septembre 2021) : 107–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.18778/2391-6478.3.31.07.

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The purpose of the article. The aim of the study is to show the impact of the key macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk of the banking sector in Poland in 2011–2020. This aim was achieved by analysis of the Pearson correlation coefficient and econometric models allowing to determine the impact of individual variables on the NPL index. Methodology: The empirical part includes the presentation and description of basic descriptive statistics, as well as the calculation of the Pearson correlation coefficient with the interpretation of the obtained results. The dynamic econometric model describing the variability of the NPL ratio was built using mainly macroeconomic variables. Results of the research: Research has shown the impact of changes in the unemployment rate and the inflation rate on credit risk. On the other hand, the impact of economic growth on the NPL ratio in the analyzed period was not statistically significant. The relationship between credit risk and changes in foreign exchange rates (CHF, USD, EUR) turned out to be negative in the analyzed period, which means that the increases in exchange rates of these currencies did not result in a significant burden of credit risk in the banking sector in Poland.

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Van der Geest, Willem. « Peter J. Montiel, Pierre-Richer Agenor, and Nadeem ul Haque. Informal Financial Markets in Developing Countries : A Macroeconomic Analysis. Published in the "Advances in Theoretical and Applied Economics" series edited by Homa Motamen-Scobie. Oxford : Blackwell. 1992. i-xi + 212 pp., including appendices. Hardbound. £40.00. » Pakistan Development Review 32, n^o 3 (1 septembre 1993) : 332–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v32i3pp.332-335.

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This volume reviews the nature and scope of informal financial markets in developing countries and elaborates on the theoretical and conceptual models which analyse 'financial repression' and other aspects of government intervention in financial markets. It also focuses on the consequences which the prevalence of informal financial markets in developing countries may have for monetary and exchange rate policy. In particular, it attempts to capture the functioning of informal, unregulated markets into macroeconomic models, working towards a general eqUilibrium model with informal financial markets. Two types of informal markets are analysed. The first are for informal lending at terms and conditions which differ greatly from those prevailing in the official banking system. The second are the 'parallel' markets for foreign exchange which tend to emerge in response to quantity restrictions on trade and administered allocation of foreign exchange to certain users at official rates, which are well below those on the parellel markets. The key question is whether these informal markets change the efficacy of monetary and credit policy-and, if they do, to what extent and in what direction? Two supporting appendices present econometric analyses of the efficiency of parallel currency markets and the degree of capital mobility in developing countries.

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Rana Shahid Imdad Akash, Muhammad Mudasar Ghafoor et Navid Ahmed. « Testing the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Theory and Dynamics of Exchange Rate Behavior (Pakistan, China, Iran and Turkey) ». Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies 6, n^o 1 (31 mars 2020) : 127–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.26710/jafee.v6i1.1059.

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Purpose: This study is aimed at to observe the purchasing power parity (PPP) Theory. The purchasing power parity (PPP) is the most enduring debate of literature in international macroeconomics. It is most controversial due to various puzzles and tested with different econometric models for certain group of countries. Therefore, the PPP is valid assumption while international comparison due to use of common exchange rate and the prevalence of Law of One price. Design/Methodology/Approach: The validity of PPP for relative countries (Pakistan, China, Iran and Turkey) was tested and analyzed for the sample period 2001 to 2018. Findings: It is observed that exchange rates of Pakistan, China, Iran and Turkey are not consistent and constant. The deviations of PPP through structural changes identified and are not persistence over long period. Overall results reflected that there is an existence of long run equilibrium relation in between Pakistan and China as well as in between Iran and Turkey. The error correction model has confirmed the adjustment speed of short run disequilibrium to long term disequilibrium level. Implications/Originality/Value: The expected differential level of inflation has significant positive impact to exchange rate shift to Pakistan and trading activity patterns. The changes in foreign exchange market and commodity market due to economic integration are important implications for economic globalization.

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Thèses sur le sujet "Foreign exchange rates – Spain – Econometric models"

Hillman, Robert J. T. « Econometric modelling of nonlinearity and nonstationarity in the foreign exchange market ». Thesis, University of Southampton, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.264846.

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Yuen, Wai-kee, et 袁偉基. « A historical event analysis of the variability in the empirical uncovered interest parity (UIP) coefficient ». Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2006. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B36424201.

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Marshall, Peter John 1960. « Rational versus anchored traders : exchange rate behaviour in macro models ». Monash University, Dept. of Economics, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/9048.

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李寶昇 et Po-sing Li. « The study of the combination of technical analysis and qualitative model in financial forecasting ». Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1998. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31269035.

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Forrester, David Edward Economics Australian School of Business UNSW. « Market probability density functions and investor risk aversion for the australia-us dollar exchange rate ». Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Economics, 2006. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/27199.

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This thesis models the Australian-US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate with particular attention being paid to investor risk aversion. Accounting for investor risk aversion in AUD/USD exchange rate modelling is novel, so too is the method used to measure risk aversion in this thesis. Investor risk aversion is measured using a technique developed in Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004), which makes use of Probability Density Functions (PDFs) extracted from option markets. More conventional approaches use forward-market pricing or Uncovered Interest Parity. Several methods of estimating PDFs from option and spot markets are examined, with the estimations from currency spot-markets representing an original application of an arbitrage technique developed in Stutzer (1996) to the AUD/USD exchange rate. The option and spot-market PDFs are compared using their first four moments and if estimated judiciously, the spot-market PDFs are found to have similar shapes to the option-market PDFs. So in the absence of an AUD/USD exchange rate options market, spot-market PDFs can act as a reasonable substitute for option-market PDFs for the purpose of examining market sentiment. The Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) attached to the AUD/USD, the US Dollar-Japanese Yen, the US Dollar-Swiss Franc and the US-Canadian Dollar exchange rates is measured using the Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique. Amongst these exchange rates, only the AUD/USD exchange rate demonstrates a significant level of investor RRA and only over a weekly forecast horizon. The Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique is also used to approximate a time-varying risk premium for the AUD/USD exchange rate. This risk premium is added to the cointegrating vectors of fixed-price and asset monetary models of the AUD/USD exchange rate. An index of Australia???s export commodity prices is also added. The out-of-sample forecasting ability of these cointegrating vectors is tested relative to a random walk using an error-correction framework. While adding the time-varying risk premium improves this forecasting ability, adding export commodity prices does so by more. Further, including both the time-varying risk premium and export commodity prices in the cointegrating vectors reduces their forecasting ability. So the time-varying risk premium is important for AUD/USD exchange rate modelling, but not as important as export commodity prices.

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Mnjama, Gladys Susan. « Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Kenya ». Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002709.

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In 1993, Kenya liberalised its trade policy and allowed the Kenyan Shillings to freely float. This openness has left Kenya's domestic prices vulnerable to the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. One of the objectives of the Central Bank of Kenya is to maintain inflation levels at sustainable levels. Thus it has become necessary to determine the influence that exchange rate changes have on domestic prices given that one of the major determinants of inflation is exchange rate movements. For this reason, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices in Kenya. In addition, it takes into account the direction and size of changes in the exchange rates to determine whether the exchange rate fluctuations are symmetric or asymmetric. The thesis uses quarterly data ranging from 1993:Ql - 2008:Q4 as it takes into account the period when the process of liberalization occurred. The empirical estimation was done in two stages. The first stage was estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) co integration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage entailed estimating the impulse response and variance decomposition functions as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. In determining the asymmetric aspect of the analysis, the study followed Pollard and Coughlin (2004) and Webber (2000) frameworks in analysing asymmetry with respect to appreciation and depreciation and large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results obtained showed that ERPT to Kenya is incomplete but relatively low at about 36 percent in the long run. In terms of asymmetry, the results showed that ERPT is found to be higher in periods of appreciation than depreciation. This is in support of market share and binding quantity constraints theory. In relation to size changes, the results show that size changes have no significant impact on ERPT in Kenya.

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Walker, Sébastien. « Essays in development macroeconomics ». Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.712398.

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Senzangakhona, Phakama. « The impact of oil price volatility on unemployment : a case study of South Africa ». Thesis, University of Fort Hare, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10353/1697.

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This study analyses and investigates the impact of crude oil price vitality on unemployment in South Africa. This is done by firstly surveying theoretical and empirical literature on the crude oil price-unemployment relationship before relating it to South Africa. Secondly, crude oil and unemployment trends with their causes are overviewed. The study employs a Johansen co-integration technique based on VAR to model unemployment against crude oil prices, real effective exchange rate, real interest rates and real gross domestic product. Using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010, econometric results show that crude oil prices are positively related to unemployment in the long run while the opposite is true in the short run. Parameter estimates and variables are statistically significant; hence there are also policy recommendations which are related to both empirical and theoretical literature. Lastly, impulse response functions show that unemployment returns to equilibrium in the long run when crude oil price changes whereas real interest rates followed by crude oil prices explain most of unemployment changes compared to other variables in the long run.

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Malek, Mansour Jeoffrey H. G. « Three essays in international economics ». Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210878.

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This thesis consists in a collection of research works dealing with various aspects of International Economics. More precisely, we focus on three main themes: (i) the existence of a world business cycle and the implications thereof, (ii) the likelihood of asymmetric shocks in the Euro Zone resulting from fluctuations in the euro exchange rate because of differences in sector specialization patterns and some consequences of such shocks, and (iii) the relationship between trade openness and growth influence of the sector specialization structure on that relationship.

Regarding the approach pursued to tackle these problems, we have chosen to strictly remain within the boundaries of empirical (macro)economics - that is, applied econometrics. Though we systematically provide theoretical models to back up our empirical approach, our only real concern is to look at the stories the data can (or cannot) tell us. As to the econometric methodology, we will restrict ourselves to the use of panel data analysis. The large spectrum of techniques available within the panel framework allows us to utilize, for each of the problems at hand, the most suitable approach (or what we think it is).
Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

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Ajagbe, Stephen Mayowa. « An analysis of the long run comovements between financial system development and mining production in South Africa ». Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002689.

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This study examines the nature of the relationship which exists between mining sector production and development of the financial systems in South Africa. This is particularly important in that the mining sector is considered to be one of the major contributors to the country’s overall economic growth. South Africa is also considered to have a very well developed financial system, to the point where the dominance of one over the other is difficult to identify. Therefore offering insight into the nature of this relationship will assist policy makers in identifying the most effective policies in order to ensure that the developments within the financial systems impact appropriately on the mining sector, and ultimately on the economy. In addition to using the conventional proxies of financial system development, this study utilises the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct an index for the entire financial system. The multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) was then used to estimate the relationship between the development of the financial systems and the mining sector production for the period 1988-2008. The study reveals mixed results for different measures of financial system development. Those involving the banking system show that a negative relationship exists between total mining production and total credit extended to the private sector, while liquid liabilities has a positive relationship. Similarly, with the stock market system, mixed results are also obtained which reveal a negative relationship between total mining production and stock market capitalisation, while a positive relationship is found with secondary market turnover. Of all the financial system variables, only that of stock market capitalisation was found to be significant. The result with the financial development index reveals that a significant negative relationship exists between financial system development and total mining sector production. Results on the other variables controlled in the estimation show that positive and significant relationships exist between total mining production and both nominal exchange rate and political stability respectively. Increased mining production therefore takes place in periods of appreciating exchange rates, and similarly in the post-apartheid era. On the other hand, negative relationships were found for both trade openness and inflation control variables. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses showed that total mining production explains the largest amount of shocks within itself. Overall, the study reveals that the mining sector might not have benefited much from the development in the South African financial system.

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Livres sur le sujet "Foreign exchange rates – Spain – Econometric models"

Obstfeld, Maurice. Risk and exchange rates. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1998.

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Hans, Dewachter, et Embrechts Marc, dir. Exchange rate theory : Chaotic models of foreign exchange markets. Oxford, UK : Blackwell, 1993.

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Exchange rate economics. Cambridge [England] : Cambridge University Press, 1995.

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Edwards, Sebastian. Exchange rates as nominal anchors. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1992.

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Pavlova, Anna. Asset prices and exchange rates. Cambridge, Mass : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003.

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Dornbusch, Rudiger. Real exchange rates and macroeconomics : A selective survey. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1988.

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Duarte, Margarida. Rational speculation and exchange rates. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2001.

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Knetter, Michael. Exchange rates and corporate pricing strategies. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1992.

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P, Dooley Michael. Interest rates, exchange rates and international adjustment. Cambridge, Mass : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005.

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P, Dooley Michael. Interest rates, exchange rates and international adjustment. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005.

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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Foreign exchange rates – Spain – Econometric models"

Hacıoğlu Deniz, Müjgan, et Kutluk Kağan Sümer. « The Effects of Oil Price Volatility on Foreign Trade Revenue and National Income : A Comparative Analysis on Selected Eurasian Economies ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01362.

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The aim of this study is to identify the effects of the volatility of oil prices and exchange rates on foreign trade revenue of a few selected Eurasian Economies. These countries are oil and natural gas exporting countries and getting most of their trade revenue from exporting these commodities. The effects of sharply falling oil prices since June 2014 and depreciating exchange rates on these countries’ external trade were analyzed by using alternative econometric models. The sample of this analysis covered the period from June 2014 when oil prices has started falling sharply – till June 2015 in which still world oil price is lower than the price of 140-150 dollars for per gallon in the previous years. Decreasing prices basically destabilize the revenues of these states since approximately two third (2/3) of their export revenue and substantial part of their budget revenue that comes from oil and natural gas. In Russian economy falling prices of oil depreciates both public revenue and economic activity. This means predominantly depending on one commodity for export and foreign trade makes these countries’ economies in dependence of that commodity’s price and makes these economies so vulnerable to global crisis and price volatilities. In order to avoid from this situation, these countries should divert their production and increase in variety for exporting goods.

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