Thèses sur le sujet « Forecasting – Research »
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Bruno, Jack H. « Evaluating the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Fidelity for Forecasting Lake Breezes ». Ohio University Honors Tutorial College / OhioLINK, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ouhonors1556189524538244.
Texte intégralNissan, Hannah. « Modelling rainfall erosivity using the Weather Research and Forecasting model ». Thesis, Imperial College London, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/24681.
Texte intégralMcCarty, Laura Smith. « Evaluation and recommendation of storage space forecasting model(s) ». Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/24250.
Texte intégralMehalic, Charles J. « Multiparameter forecasting techniques for the Marine Corps officer rate generator ». Thesis, Monterey, California : Naval Postgraduate School, 1990. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA241453.
Texte intégralThesis Advisor(s): Read, Robert R. Second Reader: Whitaker, Lyn R. "September 1990." Description based on title screen as viewed on March 19, 2010. DTIC Identifier(s): Forecast, Seasonality, Attrition Estimation, Harrison, Winters, Bayesian, Expotential Smoothing, Shrinkage, Aggregation. Author(s) subject terms: Forecast, Attrition Estimation, Harrison, Winters, Bayesian, Seasonality, Expotential smoothing, Shrinkage, Aggregation. Includes bibliographical references (p. 100-101). Also available in print.
Hong, Tao. « Long-Term Spatial Load Forecasting Using Human-Machine Co-construct Intelligence Framework ». NCSU, 2008. http://www.lib.ncsu.edu/theses/available/etd-10212008-105450/.
Texte intégralInman, Oliver Lane. « Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis ». PDXScholar, 2004. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/2682.
Texte intégralFreixieiro, Gomes de Mello Rafael. « Design-led future forecasting model for mobile communications ». Thesis, Brunel University, 2016. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/13142.
Texte intégralCalmon, André du Pin. « Reverse logistics for consumer electronics : forecasting failures, managing inventory, and matching warranties ». Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/98720.
Texte intégralCataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 147-150).
The goal of this thesis is to describe, model, and optimize reverse logistics systems commonly used in the Consumer Electronics industry. The context and motivation for this work stem from a collaboration with an industrial partner, a Fortune 500 company that sells consumer electronics and is one of the top retailers in its sector. The thesis is divided into three parts. In the first part of the thesis we model and analyze the problem of forecasting failures of new products. When a new device is introduced to the market there is limited information available about its failure time distribution since most devices have yet to fail. However, there is extensive failure time data for prior devices, as well as evidence that the failure time distribution for new devices can be forecast from the data for prior devices. In this setting, we propose two strategies for forecasting the failure distribution of new products that leverages the censored failure observations for the new devices as well as this massive amount of data collected for prior devices. We validate these strategies using data from our industrial partner and using data from a social enterprise located in the Boston area. The second part of the thesis concerns inventory management in a reverse logistics system that supports the warranty returns and replacement for a consumer electronic device. This system is a closed-loop supply chain since failed devices are refurbished and are kept in inventory to be used as replacement devices or are sold through a side-sales channel. Furthermore, managing inventory in this system is challenging due to the short life-cycle of this type of device and the rapidly declining value for the inventory that could potentially be sold. We propose a stochastic model that captures the dynamics of inventory of this system, including the limited life-cycle and the declining value of inventory that can be sold off. We characterize the structure of the optimal policy for this problem. In addition, we introduce two heuristics: (i) a certainty-equivalent approximation, which leads to a simple closed form policy; and (ii) a dual balancing heuristic, which results in a more tractable newsvendor type model. We also develop a robust version of this model in order to obtain bounds for the overall performance of the system. The performance of these heuristics is analyzed using data from our industrial partner. The final part of the thesis concerns the problem faced by a consumer electronics retailer when matching devices in inventory to customers. More specifically, we analyze a setting where there are two warranties in place: (i) the consumer warranty, offered by the retailer to the consumer, and (ii) the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) warranty, offered by the OEM to the retailer. Both warranties are valid for a limited period (usually 12 months), and once warranties expire, the coverage to replace or repair a faulty device ends. Thus, a customer does not receive a replacement if he/she is out of consumer warranty, and the retailer cannot send the device to the OEM for repairs if it is out of OEM warranty. The retailer would ideally like to have the two warranties for a device being matched, i.e., the customer would have the same time left in his consumer warranty as the device would have left in the OEM warranty. A mismatch between these warranties can incur costs to the retailer beyond the usual processing costs of warranty requests. Namely, since a device can fail multiple times during its lifecycle the replacement device sent to customers that file warranty requests can lead to out-of-OEM-warranty returns. In order to mitigate the number of out-of-OEM-warranty returns, we propose an online algorithm to match customers that have filed warranty claims to refurbished devices in inventory. The algorithm matches the oldest devices in inventory to the oldest customers in each period. We characterize the competitive ratio of this algorithm and, through numerical experiments using historical data, demonstrate that it can significantly reduce out of warranty returns compared to our partner's current strategy.
by Andre du Pin Calmon.
Ph. D.
Chan, San-wing Frederick. « Developing inquiry based learning in secondary geography education topic weather forecast : an action research / ». Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 2003. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B3984870X.
Texte intégralConatser, Dean G. « Forecasting U.S. Marine Corps reenlistments by military occupational specialty and grade ». Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2006. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/06Sep%5FConatser.pdf.
Texte intégralThesis Advisor(s): Ronald D. Fricker. "September 2006." Includes bibliographical references (p. 49-50). Also available in print.
Boyer, Christopher A. (Christopher Andrew). « Statistical methods for forecasting and estimating passenger willingness-to-pay in airline revenue management ». Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/61191.
Texte intégralPage 170 blank. Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 167-169).
The emergence of less restricted fare structures in the airline industry reduced the capability of airlines to segment demand through restrictions such as Saturday night minimum stay, advance purchase, non-refundability, and cancellation fees. As a result, new forecasting techniques such as Hybrid Forecasting and optimization methods such as Fare Adjustment were developed to account for passenger willingness-to- pay. This thesis explores statistical methods for estimating sell-up, or the likelihood of a passenger to purchase a higher fare class than they originally intended, based solely on historical booking data available in revenue management databases. Due to the inherent sparseness of sell-up data over the booking period, sell-up estimation is often difficult to perform on a per-market basis. On the other hand, estimating sell-up over an entire airline network creates estimates that are too broad and over-generalized. We apply the K-Means clustering algorithm to cluster markets with similar sell-up estimates in an attempt to address this problem, creating a middle ground between system-wide and per-market sell-up estimation. This thesis also formally introduces a new regression-based forecasting method known as Rational Choice. Rational Choice Forecasting creates passenger type categories based on potential willingness-to-pay levels and the lowest open fare class. Using this information, sell-up is accounted for within the passenger type categories, making Rational Choice Forecasting less complex than Hybrid Forecasting. This thesis uses the Passenger Origin-Destination Simulator to analyze the impact of these forecasting and sell-up methods in a controlled, competitive airline environment. The simulation results indicate that determining an appropriate level of market sell-up aggregation through clustering both increases revenue and generates sell-up estimates with a sufficient number of observations. In addition, the findings show that Hybrid Forecasting creates aggressive forecasts that result in more low fare class closures, leaving room for not only sell-up, but for recapture and spill-in passengers in higher fare classes. On the contrary, Rational Choice Forecasting, while simpler than Hybrid Forecasting with sell-up estimation, consistently generates lower revenues than Hybrid Forecasting (but still better than standard pick-up forecasting). To gain a better understanding of why different markets are grouped into different clusters, this thesis uses regression analysis to determine the relationship between a market's characteristics and its estimated sell-up rate. These results indicate that several market factors, in addition to the actual historical bookings, may predict to some degree passenger willingness-to-pay within a market. Consequently, this research illustrates the importance of passenger willingness-to-pay estimation and its relationship to forecasting in airline revenue management.
by Christopher A. Boyer.
S.M.
Lou, Mei Meng. « Weather simulation in Macao using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model ». Thesis, University of Macau, 2009. http://umaclib3.umac.mo/record=b1943035.
Texte intégralDamauskaitė, Jovita. « Research And Application Of Hard Cosmic Ray Flux For Forecasting Meteorological Conditions ». Doctoral thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2010. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2010~D_20101222_130615-72153.
Texte intégralDisertacijoje nagrinėjama kosminė spinduliuotė ir jos sklaida atmosferoje bei jos intensyvumo kaita, kurią lemią meteorologinių reiškinių dažnumas. Pagrindinis tyrimo objektas yra kietosios kosminės spinduliuotės ir atmosferos slėgio pokyčiai bei jų sąryšio įvertinimas. Kosminės spinduliuotės duomenų detali analizė ir interpretacija leidžia papildyti meteorologinę informaciją orų prognozei.
Zhai, Yusheng. « Time series forecasting competition among three sophisticated paradigms / ». Electronic version (Microsoft Word), 2005. http://dl.uncw.edu/etd/2005/zhaiy/yushengzhai.html.
Texte intégralMontornès, Torrecillas Alex. « A study of the shortwave schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting model ». Doctoral thesis, Universitat de Barcelona, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/401501.
Texte intégralL’objectiu principal d’aquesta tesi ´es la identificaci´o i quantificaci´o de les fonts d’error que tenen una contribuci´o directa o indirecta en la precisi´o dels esquemes solars, particularment en aquells disponibles en el model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW), `ampliament emprat en el sector de l’energia solar. Les fonts d’error s´on limitacions en la representaci´o del transport radiatiu com a consequ¨`encia del conjunt d’aproximacions assumides per cada esquema. En aquesta tesi hi ha tres fonts d’error que s´on analitzades: i) l’error degut a la discretitzaci´o vertical de l’atmosfera en un conjunt d’estrats que s’assumeixen homogenis (error de truncament, Etrun), ii) l’error com a resultat d’una repre- sentaci´o insuficient de l’estrat entre el cim del model (TOM) i el cim de l’atmosfera (TOA), anomenat error de TOM Etom, i iii) l’error degut a les simplificacions i a les parametritzacions f´ısiques de l’RTE, definit com a error físic, Ephys. Per tal d’evitar la incertesa introdu¨ıda pels altres components del model, el codi font de cadas- cun dels sis esquemes solars ha estat separat del model i adaptat per treballar amb perfils verticals 1-dimensionals. Mitjan¸cant aquest m`etode, les habilitats dels esquemes solars poden ´esser anal- itzades sota condicions d’entrada id`entiques. D’una banda l’error de TOM i el de truncament s’analitzen a partir de perfils ideals. De l’altra, l’error f´ısic s’evalua prenent dades de radiosondatge com a perfil vertical i comparant les sortides dels esquemes radiatius amb mesures en superf´ıcie. Els resultats d’aquesta tesi mostren que l’Etom esdev´e negligible per la majoria d’aplicacions de mesoscala. Per configuracions t´ıpiques del model, l’Etrun en condicions de cel ser`e es troba al voltant de l’1.1%, el 0.9% i el 4.9% per la GHI, DHI i DIF, respectivament. En el cas amb nu´vols augmenta de forma significativa. L’estudi de l’Ephys mostra una relaci´o significativa amb el contingut de vapor d’aigua i els aerosols.
Hou, Qingchuan. « Two essays on empirical accounting research / ». View abstract or full-text, 2007. http://library.ust.hk/cgi/db/thesis.pl?ACCT%202007%20HOU.
Texte intégralSee, Mei Eng Elaine. « How to detect the location and time of a covert chemical attack a Bayesian approach ». Thesis, Monterey, California : Naval Postgraduate School, 2009. http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2009/Dec/09Dec%5FSee.pdf.
Texte intégralThesis Advisor: Kress, Moshe. Second Reader: Johnson, Rachel. "December 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on February 1, 2010. Author(s) subject terms: Bayesian updating model, Atmospheric Threat and Dispersion model, estimation of location and time of a chemical attack, sensor placement. Includes bibliographical references (p. 99). Also available in print.
Hartmann, Holly Chris. « Stakeholder driven research in a hydroclimatic context ». Diss., FIND on the Web, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191254.
Texte intégralTsang, Kwan-ming, et 曾坤明. « Application of operation research techniques for forecasting transportation demand, planning train services and station facilitiesof the MTRC ». Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1998. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B42574717.
Texte intégralJones, Mark Benjamin. « A cost-benefit forecasting framework for assessment of advanced manufacturing technology development ». Thesis, Cranfield University, 2014. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/9247.
Texte intégralPan, Xinwei. « FORECASTING THE WORKLOAD WITH A HYBRID MODEL TO REDUCE THE INEFFICIENCY COST ». UKnowledge, 2017. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/me_etds/91.
Texte intégralNoble, Gregory Daniel. « Application of Modern Principles to Demand Forecasting for Electronics, Domestic Appliances and Accessories ». Wright State University / OhioLINK, 2009. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=wright1245278595.
Texte intégralLim, Dong-Joon. « Technological Forecasting Based on Segmented Rate of Change ». PDXScholar, 2015. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/2220.
Texte intégralSmallman, Thomas Luke. « Atmospheric profiles of CO₂ as integrators of regional scale exchange ». Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/8886.
Texte intégralPatoka, Markus. « Improving Order Picking Processes through Proper Storage Assignment : Using results from previous mathematical research to simplify solving real life problems ». Thesis, Högskolan i Borås, Akademin för textil, teknik och ekonomi, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-11107.
Texte intégralCukrowski, Jacek, et Manfred M. Fischer. « European Integration : Strategic Market Research and Industry Structures ». WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2000. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3962/1/SSRN%2Did1435350.pdf.
Texte intégralSilva, Ana Raquel Lucas e. « Equity Research - Altri SGPS S.A ». Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/9113.
Texte intégralO objetivo deste estudo é saber se o valor da empresa no mercado está correcto ou está sobre ou subvalorizado. A informação obtida do mercado e da empresa neste estudo proporcionará a um investidor um maior conhecimento da indústria, ponderar riscos e ter uma perspectiva se deve comprar ou vender uma acção. Neste sentido estudou-se os principais métodos de avaliação recorrendo à literatura existente. Também se fez um estudo dirigido à industria da polpa de forma a entender as principais características da mesma, adoptando-se o estudo do passado ainda que recente e perspectivas futuras. Seguiu-se depois um estudo dos indicadores principais e a performance operacional da Altri. Estas análises contribuirão para assumir pressupostos relativamente ao cálculo do valor da Altri. Os resultados obtidos indicam um mercado com cash flow voláteis com um grau de incerteza elevado, ainda que tendo em conta o pouco conhecimento que existe da indústria.
In this project the ultimate objective is to value Altri SGPS, S.A. The information disclosed in this report will permit a wide knowledge about the industry and also consider risk involved. In order to do a good work it was conducted a study in the main methods to value a company using the literature existing which will support the work throughout the project. The analysis of the pulp industry contribute to perceive some opportunities in this market, to understand the cyclical behavior as a feature, and a massive contribute to make assumptions when forecasting the value of Altri SGPS, SA. The results indicate that the price of the share in a cyclical company is volatile and it has high values of uncertainty. If there is no perfect foresight about the industry cycles it is most likely to obtain a value that will not describe what might happen. Thus who has information will have an accurate price value.
Tsang, Kwan-ming. « Application of operation research techniques for forecasting transportation demand, planning train services and station facilities of the MTRC ». Hong Kong : The University of Hong Kong, 1998. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B42574717.
Texte intégralThoe, Wai, et 陶煒. « A daily forecasting system of marine beach water quality in Hong Kong ». Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2010. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B46289100.
Texte intégralKummerow, Max F. « A paradigm of inquiry for applied real estate research : integrating econometric and simulation methods in time and space specific forecasting models : Australian office market case study ». Thesis, Curtin University, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/1574.
Texte intégralEguasa, Uyi Harrison. « Strategies to Improve Data Quality for Forecasting Repairable Spare Parts ». ScholarWorks, 2016. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/3155.
Texte intégralShepherd, Tristan James. « A Numerical Modelling Study of Tropical Cyclone Sidr (2007) : Sensitivity Experiments Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model ». Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geography, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/2611.
Texte intégralDern, Dean, et 鄧之昌. « Taiwan stock index research and forecasting ». Thesis, 1999. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/96268592853669288991.
Texte intégral國立政治大學
統計學系
87
The article utilizes the transfer function model in time series to make prediction on closing volume with closing value of the stock market, the American Dow Jones average index with the index of Taiwan stock market index, NASDAQ index with Taiwan electronic stock. In additional to discovering the appropriate prediction model, we can simultaneously see the influence of America with great economic power on Taiwan and how the concept that the volume determines the value is verified. During the process of this research, the outcome of the analysis indicates the closing volume is two times ahead of the closing value while the volume and value of the electronic and glamour stocks are changing in the same time and the American stock value and NASDAQ index are one time ahead of Taiwan electronic stock value. Besides the analysis based on the whole data, we can predict the possible futuristic stock trend. On the other hand, we can get pretty good result based on this theory, which accounts for the fact that America has some influence on Taiwan stock market and verifies the concept that the volume determines the value.. In addition, these three phenomenon can serve as the references for the prediction on the Taiwan stock index.
Day, Min-Yuh, et 戴敏育. « Research Of Applying Genetic Algorithms To Fuzzy Forecasting-Focus On Sales Forecasting ». Thesis, 1995. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98418171464602711307.
Texte intégral淡江大學
資訊管理研究所
83
The major purpose of this study is applying Genetic Algorithms(GAs) to developing fuzzy forecasting in order to increase the accuracy of forecasting. Genetic algorithm is a parallel goal-oriented search technique for optimization and can be used to easily find out the global or nearly global optima for optimization problems. In this study, we focus on sales forecasting and propose a dynamic forecasting model by using Genetic Algorithms in searching the optimal linguistic variables and partition intervals, and finding out the most fitness model basis w of fuzzy time series in different cases. Finally, we propose adding the expert opinions served as leading indicators in the fuzzy time series for forecsting value. Results show that the accuracy of the forecasting results is significantly improved, it proved the effectiveness of the fuzzy forecasting model we proposed.
Monahan, Kayla M. « Aircraft Demand Forecasting ». 2016. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/masters_theses_2/329.
Texte intégralYeh, Chih-Ming, et 葉志明. « Research on the Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting ». Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/xg65cb.
Texte intégral國立臺北科技大學
電機工程系研究所
99
Since the the signing of the Kyoto Protocol and the global efforts in reducing carbon emission, the green energy industry has been developing with great vitality in recent years. Taiwan in particular boasts a well-established solar energy industry. Characterized by advantages like easy installation and integration into buildings, low pollution, and the capability of lowering fossil fuel consumption, Solar energy relies on capturing and converting solar radiation into electricity. However, subject to the changes in season, time, weather, cloud amount and other external factors, solar radiation is marked with uncertainty as it is difficult to predict the energy output in the even the next hour. This inherent instability renders the prediction of energy output an especially crucial issue in the effective operation of solar power systems. This paper uses prediction methods including Time series analysis aims at measuring the correlation between data and identifying the special features of data to facilitate prediction. Back-propagation neural network is capable of performing effective prediction by analyzing nonlinear statistical data; The main essence of the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems solution is the use of fuzzy theory and neural network learning characteristics and thus enhance the prediction accuracy. The forecast data are historical data in Taichung, Penghu and Malaysia, and the solar energy capacities are respectively 72kW, 70kW and 45.36kW. The predicted results show that Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems prediction error and low frequency high, because it can effectively be done for each input variable fuzzy classification, and learning by neural networks, fuzzy features that not only has the characteristics of neural networks, and strengthen the overall predicted structure. This will increase the forecast accuracy is relatively many, with the predicted structure, when the capacity increases to more accurately predict when the document generation. Simulation results show that in these five cases, ANFIS is more accurate the prediction error is about 3.8% accurate forecasts for the industry not only provides reference for the development towards a greater capacity, can also provide this information as an economic Taipower scheduling.
Liu, Yu-Te, et 劉昱德. « The Research on Flood Forecasting Based on Landmarks ». Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/47278725109800838340.
Texte intégral國立臺灣海洋大學
資訊工程學系
102
The disaster brought by heavy rain has become more and more serious in Taiwan, and it has been an important research issue to provide warning messages before flood. In the past research, we have built a flood forecasting system based on the TwoFD module developed by hydraulic experts, but directly displaying all the flooded cells on maps might take a lot of time. Therefore, we propose to summarize flooded cells based on landmarks. Such messages will be short and clear, and we can evaculate the persons within the landmark in advance. To do this, the main research issue is how to find the effective warning message rapidly. We propose two methods. The VC method uses Voronoi diagram and R-tree to perform spatial join between flooded cells and the minimum bounding rectangle of landmarks' Voronoi cells, and then find the landmarks nearby flooded cells. We also propose the C2L method to pre-calculate the distance between cells and landmarks to preclude those cells whose distances are more than a given threshold. At the end, we have performed a series of experiments and used a variety of data sets to examine the effectiveness and the efficiency of our two methods. Experimental results show that although the C2L method requires more space for the pre-built indices, it performs better in terms of effectiveness and efficiency.
Lin, Ping-wen, et 林品妏. « Research on Tourism Demand Forecasting Using Grey Theory ». Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/43274383524302654729.
Texte intégral國立雲林科技大學
全球運籌管理研究所碩士班
99
In recent years, the exchanges between cross-strait has been frequently as cross-strait relations develop peacefully. The People''s Republic of China (PRC) government encourages its people to make a tour to Taiwan also accelerate the number of Chinese tourists. This research uses Grey Theory to construct prediction model to the number of Chinese tourists to Taiwan. Taking the statistical data from February 2009 to January 2011 as samples, prediction of the number Chinese tourists to Taiwan is conducting. GM(1,1), grey seasonal model, grey markov residual modification model and exponential smoothingto do prediction. The results reveal that the combination of grey seasonal model and markov residual modification model has the highest accuracy. Base on the result of this research, related suggestions are given.
Lin, Chih-hao, et 林志豪. « Research on Grey Forecasting Model with Acceleration Characteristics ». Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/74408483106238019927.
Texte intégral義守大學
工業工程與管理學系碩士班
97
From the past to now, human being is curious about the unknown future. Subsequently, numerous methods are developed to predict the future, from “Bagua (The Eight Diagrams)” of ancient China and “Astrology” of Babylon to the “Tarot” which is most popular in the present time. All the efforts are devoted to predict the future and try to avoid the disaster and get the fortune. Due to the development of mathematics and statistics, the forecasting science is a fast growing subject. In the recent years, there is an emerging forecasting method which is called “Grey Theory” proposed by Prof. Deng. The characteristics of the Grey theory are easy mathematics, less data needed and high prediction precision. Among the Grey theory, the Grey forecasting is one of the most popular subjects. The general case is GM(m,n) which m represents the order of differentiation and n represents the number of influencing factors. The GM(1,1) is the basic model and is applied to numerous research fields. The GM(2,1) is the research interest in this study because of its controversy in existence. In order to show its existence, the interpretation of GM(2,1) is introduced by considering physical point of view. And it is believed that GM(2,1) indeed exists and is suitable for system with acceleration or deceleration because of second differentiation appeared in the original equation. To prove our deduction correct, a set of raw data with periodical change is chosen and collected. The international cruel oil price obtains the characteristic of periodical change and its future trend is forecast both by GM(1,1) and GM(2,1) respectively. The result shows that GM(2,1) holds higher forecasting accuracy than GM(1,1) because of the periodical change essence in cruel oil price. Futhermore, the GM(2,1) is applied to forecast the domestic oil price and the result is also satisfactory.
沈高毅. « The research of forecasting Taiwan stock index future ». Thesis, 1998. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/84493255954398268484.
Texte intégral陳至尚. « Gray system theory research in the rice price forecasting ». Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/08189981099958546135.
Texte intégralAI, SUN, et 孫艾. « Research on Exchange Rate Forecasting Based on Information System Algorithm ». Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/65v4u5.
Texte intégral國立高雄應用科技大學
國際企業研究所
105
Abstract Along with the rapid development of financial globalization, our country faces complicated financial risks and foreign exchange risks. The subprime mortgage crisis, the sovereign debt crisis in areas with the euro, etc., spurred a global financial crisis and an economic recession and hence caused exchange rate prediction to evolve into an important economic issue, drawing wide attention. However, the foreign exchange market is a non-linear system with multiple variables, in which correlations between all factors are perplexing, exacerbating the difficulty of exchange rate prediction. As a complex non-linear system, exchange rate prediction methods have developed into a time series prediction from a parametric regression. However, in real applications, exchange rate fluctuations and varying trends are very complex, and the execution speed of the algorithm must surpass the variation speed of exchange rate at the same time as the exchange rate is precisely predicted. Although numerous studies pertaining to exchange rate prediction methods are currently available, the majority of the algorithms have been constrained by their complexity, and relevant research analysis has not been conducted on the applicability to data sets of the algorithms commonly used in exchange rate prediction. On account of this, three major method types are selected in this dissertation as the methodological basis of the research: the algorithm based on the empirical risk minimization principle, the algorithm based on the structural risk minimization principle, and the statistical filtering algorithm. Methods representative of algorithms theoretically applicable to exchange rate prediction are separated from the three major methods, namely, the Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN), the Least Squares-Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM), and the Kalman Filter (KF). The three methods mentioned above are selected in this dissertation to represent the three major methods, and explore their precision, efficiency, and applicability concerning exchange rate prediction. In addition, we contrast the three major types of algorithms according to test results, analyze the applicability of the different algorithms to data sets, and offer a novel train of thought and technological research on solving the problem of exchange rate prediction. The main sections of the dissertation are as follows: 1. The widely-used type of neural network, RBFNN, is introduced into the field of exchange rate prediction based upon the empirical risk minimization principle. This method both inherits the empirical risk minimization principle and introduces the kernel functions of RBF, has a higher prediction accuracy, simple structure, fast training speed, and different from the ordinary feedforward neural networks, with the best approximation performance and overall optimization. 2. This dissertation takes LS-SVM to represent the methods based on the structural risk minimization principle used for exchange rate prediction, since the methods based on the empirical risk minimization principle have lower prediction accuracy in circumstances of insufficient data. Addressing the issue of slower computation and convergence speeds of the traditional SVM algorithm, this method solved the problem of quadratic programming with LS on the premise of ensured minimal structural risks. Therefore, adopting this method may ensure the accuracy of the algorithm in cases of small sample size, as well as completing the prediction faster. 3. Addressing the deviation existing in both the prediction results from each type of method and in the exchange rate data, this dissertation proposes an exchange rate method based on the Kalman Filter. This method is representative of statistical filtering algorithms and may internally reduce noise in the two models to acquire more accurate prediction values. Therefore, adopting this method may effectively utilize the accuracy of the two models and allow the acquisition of more precise prediction values by statistical means.
Fan, Chich-Kai, et 范智凱. « Research of a Fault Forecasting System for Wind Power Generation ». Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/82177291510882172448.
Texte intégral國立勤益科技大學
電機工程系
101
This paper propose a new method to forecast wind power generation fault, it is able to diagnose the fault omen of wind power system before accident, and change the operating status of the wind power system in advance, so it would effectively avoid serious destruction in the system. First, the proposed scheme uses a series of sensor to derive important characteristic data from the wind power system, and then stored in the database. To detect small change, we propose using chaos synchronism-based detect method to form chaos error spreading figures, and use the key point of spreading figure to be the characteristic of fault diagnosis, so that it would reduce the amount of characteristics. Second, we use gray prediction method to predict change trajectory of characteristics, it can predict the next cycle of characteristic data. We use extension identified method to diagnose the fault of wind power system, to change the operating status of the wind power system in advance and to implement emergency action, so it would effectively avoid serious destruction in the system, and highly reduce the repairing time and operating cost.
Yang, Ching-Wen, et 楊靜汶. « The Research of Forecasting Model of Global IC Industry Supply ». Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/90554048844916134717.
Texte intégral清雲科技大學
國際企業管理研究所
97
A procedure is The production forecasting of high technology industries is an important issue for entrepreneurs and governments, but it suffers from the situation of fast growth and frequent fluctuation. This article provides forecasting performance by using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) forecasts. The BVAR model possesses the superiority of Bayesian statistics in small sample forecasting and holds the dynamic property of VAR (Vector autoregression) model. We examined the production value/sales annual growth rate of global semiconductor industry from 1979 to 2002 by using some leading indicators. In our methodology processing, first, we divide our data into some cycles and use them to test our model by using the twelve-steps ahead forecasting. Second, according to the history data, we forecast the production value/sales of global semiconductor industry for the next two years. Our results show that, the non-informative prior BAVR model can approximately match each trend of these cycles. We also show that we could exactly find the inflection point of the trend and give a promising forecasting. From these trends, we conclude that the production value/sales of global semiconductor industry will grow over the next two years.
Yang, Ssu Hui, et 楊斯惠. « The research on travel time forecasting of freeway freight vehicle ». Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/36687513081722365291.
Texte intégral德明財經科技大學
經貿運籌管理研究所
98
Due to the Electronic Toll Collection and Traffic Control System has been constructed in Taiwan; Freeway Bureau has already provided travel time prediction data which be calculated from the traffic speed collected by these two systems. The better utilization of this information could improve freight vehicle company efficiency in time, reduce the travel cost and make the right route choices. The methodology of Freeway Bureau prediction model is linear regression. However, its weight values were assigned by rule of thumb and without validating. So, this research wants to validating this empirical model and calculating its weight values. The traffic speed and travel time data of Freeway No.1 northbound, from 35 KM to 71 KM, dated from February 2 to February 27, 2009 which be collected from electronic toll system and vehicle detectors were used for analysis. The MAPE value of the reconstructed model is about 11% , when using the data of freight vehicles to estimate travel time. This research would be helpful for the government and freight vehicle companies to predicting the freeway travel time.
Liao, Fan-Yu, et 廖凡宇. « The Research of Stock Price Forecasting Based on Neural Network ». Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/7md3bp.
Texte intégral國立虎尾科技大學
資訊管理研究所
98
In this era, information is easily acquired. In recent years, moving towards liberalization and internationalization on the domestic stock market attracts more investors. Due to fast change in economic environment, the risk to invest in the stock market is getting higher. As the trend of the stock price is difficult to predict, investors must consider the following four points: 1. How to properly select stock is one of the goals that investors pay attention to 2. What is the correct timing to buy stock 3. Prepare a transaction tactics for stock purchase and sell 4. Set up the options for stock investment. In the past, many researches were undertaken by utilizing neural networks, like: junk email filtering, agricultural products sales prediction, including stock market prediction. There still remains space for improvement and we continue to carry on research in this respect. This research focuses on Taiwan 50 (ETF50) for historical database of the stock, and employs neural network with the eight technological analysis indicator of investment (KD, RSI, MA, MACD, William''s indicator, AR&BR, MTM, TAPI) to build the intelligent prediction of stock market trend. Hopefully this will help investors to make correct judgment in stock market sales and reduce the investment risk.
De, Wet A. J. C. « Investigating fashion forecasting approaches in South Africa : proposed way forward ». Thesis, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10210/5211.
Texte intégralThis study is an investigation into current local and international fashion forecasting approaches and procedures, as well as to discover whether intuition has relevance in the forecasting process. South African fashion is currently in the process of transformation; discovering and establishing a fashion identity, after decades of unquestioningly following international fashion trends (Chang, 2005:20; Cohen, 2005:27; Levin, 2005a: 75-78). The emergence of local fashion/trend forecasting practices in recent years is part of this transformation process. An underlying assumption of this study is that South African fashion will continue to develop, resulting in an increasing demand for fashion forecasting in the country. As there are currently no guidelines available, the study aims to provide insight into a way forward for this practice in South Africa. The study is grounded within a qualitative research paradigm, and the research design and data collection methods have accordingly been selected. The chosen research design falls largely within the framework of an ethnographic study. A comprehensive analysis of existing literature was conducted in order to provide a theoretical grounding to the study and to acquire a global perspective on forecasting procedures. This was followed by semi-structured interviews to obtain primary data from a South African perspective. The participants were purposely selected according to set criteria. The first criteria for selection required the participants to be leading role-players in their particular fields. Secondly, individuals who are trend forecasters by profession, as well as those who may use forecasting material in their businesses. Thirdly, the sample of participants represents specified sectors within the South African fashion/lifestyle industries. Namely, editors at leading trend magazines, in-house trend forecasters/analysts at leading fashion retailers, designers and independent trend analysts/forecasters. In order to construct the findings of the study qualitative content analysis was used as the method for data analysis. Through this process, the descriptions of the participants were interpreted to establish commonalities in practice, so as to identify viable threads of relevance regarding trend forecasting within a South African context. The research findings narrate the participants’ experiences within the field of trend/fashion forecasting, their knowledge frameworks being key to the study (Henning, van Rensburg & Smit, 2004:19). It is evident from the findings that the practice of fashion forecasting in South Africa is at an early stage of development and therefore at present, limited procedural IV structures seem to be in place. The findings further indicate that intuition indeed plays a significant role in the forecasting process, and is often associated with insightful trend/fashion forecasting. South African fashion, although facing several challenges, is perceived to have enormous potential for growth and to be a successful international marketing commodity in the future. In order for the practice of fashion forecasting to be successful in the country, though, it needs to be approached with insight and integrity, and with a true intention to add value.
Lin, Tsang-Long, et 林倉龍. « The Research of Forecasting Tourists in National Scenic Area in Taiwan ». Thesis, 2004. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/5qp23d.
Texte intégral朝陽科技大學
休閒事業管理系碩士班
92
The government promote domestic tourism actively in recent years. Among the 2008-challenge the future plan, the domestic tourism development plan hope by submitting tourist double plan, package travel and new developing scenic area to Increase domestic tourists from 74 million to 1.5 hundred million. This study utilize Box-Jenkins’s ARIMA model and Ordinary Least Square Model to establish practical forecasting model for four area, north, central, south and east. Then assembly by forecasting combination method to evaluate the forecasting accuracy. The result shows that forecasting combination can improve the accuracy because it combine two models’ merit. In this study, unfortunately, due to the OLS shortcoming, it becomes barely outcomes. The North, Central and South area still remain more accuracy in ARIMA model forecasting value, only East area acquire more accuracy by the forecasting combination B. The result also shows the Tourists of National Scenic Area increase but slowly. The total tourist of National Scenic Area will reach 20 million in 2005 which is only 10% progress by 2003.
HUANG, CHIEN-LUNG, et 黃建隆. « Research on Estimating and Forecasting Models of PV Power Generating System ». Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/9dg26f.
Texte intégral國立高雄應用科技大學
電機工程系博碩士班
105
The capacity of PV Power Generating system has increased in the past years, but meanwhile 95% of the real time operation status information for the PV Power Generating system was never used for the power coordination Taiwan Power Company. However, for extremely low operating reserve, this information will be the key factor for stabilizing the system. Also according to current promoted policy and forecast, the PV Power Generating system will be expanded to 20GW; while if most of the private PV Power Generating system can’t share the real time generation status with control center, the cost and risk for the whole power net system would be high. This thesis will establish a simulation model, based on limited PV Power Generating generator sets to estimate the capacity of whole PV Power Generating system. In this way, the reserve could be monitored in real time and help Dispatch center of Taiwan Power Company to manage the whole solar system. Meanwhile, the PV Power Generating generation data will be collected in hour base. And an analysis will be performed and compared with those parameters for PV Power Generating system. Liner regression analysis will be applied with Least Square approach to establish the model for prediction, and by various verification processes, the reliability for this model can be confirmed. Finally, the prediction based on this model will be compared to the actual load from the system to identify the accuracy and effectiveness.
Yao, Jau Chang, et 姚朝昶. « The Research on the Design of Earnings Forecasting Decision pport System ». Thesis, 1993. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/42305371405396187891.
Texte intégral