Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Food supply – Statistics – Periodicals »

This study examines the disruptions in the operations of state trade enterprises and consumer cooperatives in providing food to the population of Bashkortostan during the Great Patriotic War. The article is based on unpublished documents from the National Archives of the Republic of Bashkortostan, as well as materials from periodicals. It is revealed that the weakening of the state’s control functions led to an increase in embezzlement and theft in trade and public catering enterprises. The combination of reduced trade turnover and the rise in abuses within the supply system resulted in severe food shortages. Supply disruptions affected workers, officials, evacuated populations, children, and medical institutions. Various abuses are discussed, including food ration card counterfeiting, different forms of self-supply, and instances of double provisioning. Attention is given to violations in accounting for population groups and inflated supply norms. It is established that combating abuses in the supply system was complicated by the involvement of enterprise leaders, shop workers, accountants, and representatives of auditing bodies in criminal activities. The conclusion is drawn that despite numerous violations, the supply system only minimally provided essential food items to the population of Bashkortostan with interruptions and not in full.

Value-added food supply chains are chains that maintain positive social, environmental, and community values which are integrated into the production process from the primary producer to the final consumer, ensuring economic, social, and environmental sustainability, thus forming a sustainable agricultural and food production system. The evaluation of the value added in each chain is based on indicators, which are a tool to measure changes in the actual situation or to show performance trends in achieving the progress set by the objectives. The presented indicators are based on publicly available statistics and foreign literature that allow measuring value added in specific livestock chains at aggregate level (beef production, pork production and dairy production) and are based on publicly available statistics in the Republic of Slovenia. The need to produce indicators of value added in livestock food supply chains arises from the large differences in structural changes in the sector itself and in the development and economic performance of the various livestock industries.

The purpose of the article is to reveal the current state and trends in domestic trade development in Ukraine and to identify problem areas in the food supply chains. Research methods. The following methods were used such in the research: dialectical methods of processes and phenomena cognition; monographic method for assessing scientific achievements in the domestic trade study; empirical method for a comprehensive assessment of the study object current state; the method of expert assessments for the activity areas analysis that are not sufficiently provided with official statistics; index method for the pace of development analysis and abstract-logical for generalizations and formulation of conclusions. Research results. The current state of domestic trade development in Ukraine and problems in food supply chains are revealed, such as: "gray schemes" of trade, increase in grain resale, lack of full reporting by holding structures and other market participants, etc.; ways to solve the identified problems are outlined. Scientific novelty. Theoretical provisions on the domestic trade development in Ukraine were further developed, the real growth rates (falls) of wholesale and retail trade, taking into account inflationary processes and the constrain factors, were revealed. Practical significance. The arguments presented in the article regarding the objective and subjective domestic trade development factors, official statistics limited data, supply chain problems are the evidence base for a number of measures implementation to improve the situation. Figs.: 5. Refs.: 13.

The application of global indices of nutrition and food sustainability in public health and the improvement of product profiles has facilitated effective actions that increase food security. In the research reported here we develop index measurements further so that they can be applied to food categories and be used by food processors and manufacturers for specific food supply chains. This research considers how they can be used to assess the sustainability of supply chain operations by stimulating more incisive food loss and waste reduction planning. The research demonstrates how an index driven approach focussed on improving both nutritional delivery and reducing food waste will result in improved food security and sustainability. Nutritional improvements are focussed on protein supply and reduction of food waste on supply chain losses and the methods are tested using the food systems of Kenya and India where the current research is being deployed. Innovative practices will emerge when nutritional improvement and waste reduction actions demonstrate market success, and this will result in the co-development of food manufacturing infrastructure and innovation programmes. The use of established indices of sustainability and security enable comparisons that encourage knowledge transfer and the establishment of cross-functional indices that quantify national food nutrition, security and sustainability. The research presented in this initial study is focussed on applying these indices to specific food supply chains for food processors and manufacturers.

COVID-19 has had a significant impact on food supply chains at both domestic and global levels. At the same time, Indonesia's food security index experienced a significant decline. This study presents an exploratory approach-based research review aiming at identifying problems occurring along food supply chain post COVID-19 pandemic, and at examining possible policies, studies and research needed to improve food security. In addition to relevant previous studies, the authors analysed data from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and Bank of Indonesia (BI). A number of problems and issues pertinent to Indonesia’s food supply chain that may adversely affect food security are identified and a post COVID-19 “exit strategy” to strengthen food supply chain is explored.

The article discusses the theory and practice of optimizing the supply of perishable food products in the context of the concept of supply chain management, taking into account the harmonization of the economic positions of supply chain companies. The purpose of the study is to develop a method of managing the efficiency of supply chain systems of perishable food products, taking into account the variability of the logistics cycle. Object of study – the processes of managing the supply of perishable foodstuffs in the respective supply chains. The subject of the study are methods and models of managing the supply of perishable food. Research methods – systematic approach, probability theory and mathematical statistics, optimization. As a result of the conducted researches the method of managing the efficiency of supply chains of perishable foodstuffs taking into account the variability of the logistic cycle is proposed, which allows to evaluate the effectiveness of measures for the improvement of logistic, and considered in its structure of transport, servicing of supply chains of perishable foodstuffs in the context of development perishable food supplies. KEYWORDS: QUALIFIED SUPPLY PRODUCTS, SUPPLY CHAIN, LIKELY-STATISTICAL MODEL, SUPPLY MANAGEMENT, VARIABILITY.

Although food supply statistics are commonly used in ecological studies of diet and disease, little information is available on how they compare with reported intakes of foods. The objective of the present study was to compare fruit and vegetable availability with estimates of national mean intakes derived from national food consumption surveys. Food availability statistics from the FAO were used. For each country, mean national supply, based on at least 3 years of FAO data, was calculated. National estimates of mean fruit and vegetable intakes were derived from population-based surveys from fifteen countries, gathered for the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study revision for 2000. Extrapolations were made when survey data did not cover all age groups. For each country, the FAO:survey estimate ratio was calculated. This ratio ranged from 0·93 to 2·70 (median value=1·39). Although there was a tendency for FAO data to overestimate intakes (fourteen out of fifteen countries), the degree of overestimation varied greatly among the countries included in this study (5–270 %). As food supply statistics are the only source of information on dietary patterns in most countries of the world, further information on how they reflect food intakes is needed. Obtaining detailed and valid estimates of dietary intakes in more countries around the world will be essential for such comparisons.

The present article intends to scrutinize the role of the Class Association of the Bakery Industrialists of Oporto in the course of the Livelihoods Crisis as a consequence of the First World War. It is an enquiry into the activity of a class association that was heavily involved in the daily life of its community and also in the instability caused by that conflict. Previous studies have mostly referred only to the consumer, his role and his difficulties, neglecting the producers’ association, which for obvious reasons has considerable importance in food supply. With the help of a vast bibliography, periodicals and the funds of the Arquivo Distrital do Porto, we will try to understand how the association dealt with the countless difficulties in the supply of raw materials to the bakeries of the city, which obviously strangled the commercial circuits, and above all, how it faced the enormous pressure from ordinary citizens seeking to guarantee the fundamental pillar of their diet.

Supply chain management (SCM) has been well-known to strongly influence the company performance. in food manufacturing industries. In this study quality, time, information, flexibility, and integration have been selected as variables to predict their influence on Kuwait food industries. The methodology of the study was developed where five hypotheses have been proposed on the relationship among the selected factors and the performance. To evaluate the hypotheses, an examination through a questionnaire was conducted, followed by its analysis with Statistics Packaging for Social Science (SPSS) and Minitab applications. The findings were found to be in support of two hypotheses only. Oher three hypotheses were rejected. This study showed the ways in which order the factors should be prioritized to improve the performance of an organization.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Achieving food security and reducing hunger requires comprehensive measurement for proper identification of the food insecure, the severity of food insecurity, its causes, and progress in reducing food insecurity. Measuring food security is challenging due to its multidimensional nature as all four dimensions (availability, access, utilisation, and stability) need to be achieved simultaneously. Comprehensive measurement has not been achieved as most existing indicators have a unidimensional focus and efforts to find a ‘composite indicator’ (a catch all measurement tool) have thus far been unsuccessful. This study therefore identified how the three most widely used indicators of food security, the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), Dietary Diversity Score (DDS) and the Coping Strategies Index (CSI), can complement one other in capturing the multiple dimensions of food security. The study brought them together in one cross-sectional household survey of 409 randomly selected households in Taraba State, Nigeria. The results show that 69 percent of households in Taraba had a very low food security status, 23 percent had low food security, and 8 percent had high or marginal food security. About 34 percent of the households used very erosive coping strategies. Very low food security status was found to be associated with: a household head who is a farmer, less educated, or divorced; low household income and expenditure; large household size; and not owning large plots of land. The survey revealed that most households that obtain the greater proportion of their food from own production, and spend most of their income on the purchase of starchy staples were in the very low food security category. Those that sourced their food mainly through purchase, and spent more on fresh fruit and vegetables, meat, fish, eggs, and processed foods were in the high or marginal food security category. The study showed that the key indicators followed a clear complementary pattern. The bivariate analysis showed a significant difference (P<0.01) in DDS and CSI across HFIAS categories. The HFIAS very low food security category is characterised by the lowest food diversity and highest CSI, revealing that the depth of food insecurity is intense among the extreme group. The study demonstrated that these three indicators can be used together for a fuller understanding of the relationships between the different dimensions of food security, and recommended more studies in using complementary indicators to measure food security. This thesis is presented as the two academic articles option: the first article reviews the measurement of food security and complementarity of the three measures, while the second article discusses the findings of the survey.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die bereiking van voedselsekerheid en die bekamping van hongersnood vereis omvattende meting vir die korrekte identifikasie van voedselonsekerheid, die erns daarvan, die oorsake daarvan, en die proses van voedselonsekerheidvermindering. Die meting van voedselsekerheid is ʼn uitdaging as gevolg van die multidimensionele aard daarvan, aangesien die onderskeie dimensies (beskikbaarheid, toegang, benutting, en stabiliteit) tegelyktydig bereik moet word. Omvattende meting is nog nie bereik nie, aangesien bestaande aanwysers ʼn eendimensionele fokus het, en aangesien pogings om ʼn ‘saamgestelde aanwyser’ (‘n allesomvattende metingsinstrument) te vind, tot dusver onsuksesvol was. Hierdie studie het dus geïdentifiseer hoe die drie mees algemene aanwysers vir voedselsekerheid, naamlik die Huishoudelike Voedselonsekerheid Toegangskaal (HFIAS), die Dieetkundige Diversiteitstelling (DDS) en die Hanteringstrategieë Indeks (CSI), mekaar kan aanvul om die verskeie dimensies van voedselsekuriteit vas te vang. Die studie het die bogenoemde instrumente saam geïmplementeer in ʼn deursnee-huishoudelike opname van 409 ewekansig-geselekteerde huishoudings in Taraba Staat, Nigerië. Die resultate het 69 persent van huishoudings in Taraba met ‘n baie lae voedselsekerheid-status getoon, 23 persent met ʼn lae voedselsekerheid-status, en 8 persent met ʼn hoë of geringe voedselsekerheid-status. Ongeveer 34 persent van die huishoudings het baie verwerende hanteringsstrategieë gebruik. Baie lae voedselsekerheid-status is bevind om meer geassosieer te word met: ʼn huishoudelike hoof wat ʼn boer is, minder opgevoed is, of geskei is; waar daar lae huishoudelike inkomste en uitgawes teenwoordig is; ʼn groot huishoudelike grootte; en die nie-besitting van eiendom. Die opname het geopenbaar dat die meeste huishoudings wat die grootter proporsie van hulle voedsel vanaf eie produksie verkry, en die meeste van hulle inkomste op die aankoop van styselagtige stapelvoedsel spandeer, in die baie lae voedselsekerheid-kategorie geval het. Diegene wat hulle voedsel hoofsaaklik deur aankope verkry het, en meer spandeer het op vars vrugte, groente, vleis, vis, eiers en geprosesseerde kosse, was in die hoë/ geringe voedselsekerheid kategorie. Die studie het bevind dat die sleutelaanwysers ʼn duidelike aanvullende patroon gevolg het. Die tweeveranderlike ontleding het ʼn beduidende verskil (P<0.01) in DDS en CSI oor HFIAS-kategorieë getoon. Die HIFIAS baie lae voedselsekerheidkategorie word gekenmerk deur die laagste voedseldiversiteit en hoogste CSI, wat openbaar dat die diepte van voedselonsekerheid intensief is onder die uiterste groep. Die studie het gedemonstreer dat hierdie drie aanwysers saam gebruik kan word om ʼn beter begrip van die verhoudings tussen die verskillende dimensies van voedselsekuriteit te verkry, en daar is aanbeveel dat meer navorsing onderneem word aangaande die gebruik van aanvullende aanwysers om voedselsekuriteit te meet. Hierdie tesis word aangebied as die twee-akademiese-artikels opsie: die eerste artikel bied ʼn oorsig van die meting van voedselsekerheid en die aanvullendheid van die drie instrumente, terwyl die tweede artikel die bevindinge van die studie bespreek.

Abstract The study aimed at exploring perceived impacts of climate variability on coffee and banana farming and community responses in the highlands of Moshi Rural District. A socio-economic survey employing qualitative and quantitative research approaches was used. Data were collected using questionnaires, key informant interviews, focus group discussions as well as field observation. A total of 96 farmers were involved in the study. SPSS Statistics software package and Microsoft Excel were used for data processing and analysis. Findings showed that communities are knowledgeable about climate variability. Their knowledge is based on perceptions of the impacts already felt and attributed to climate variability, including unpredictable patterns of rainy seasons. Climate variability is associated with decrease in household food supply, unpredictable farming calendar and drying of water sources for irrigation and domestic use. Coffee yields showed a decreasing trend (at the rate of R² = -0.494) during the years 1990-2016. This was contrary to bananas, which indicated an increasing trend (R² = 0.036) of production during the same period. Communities were responding to impacts of climate variability in various ways, including intercropping, planting early maturing and drought-resistant varieties and gravity canal irrigation. Projected climate changes showed that the future was uncertain for farmers depending on rain-fed farming. Therefore, further research on viable options would help farmers adapt to current and future climatic stresses. Options may include intensified irrigation of crops and conservation farming which have the potential to increase banana and coffee production, thereby improving productivity and food security for communities.

New measurement technologies are facilitating new approaches to the improvement of safety and quality in agri-food supply chains. However, measurement uncertainty and choice of sampling strategy can influence the outcomes of assessment programmes. This chapter provides a sampler of calculations of population statistics, required sample sizes and approaches to developing and implementing a sampling strategy. While examples from the fresh produce sector are given, the sampler is of relevance to both the student and the practitioner operating in agri-supply chains more generally.

The study assessed training needs of palm oil processors in Ogun State, Nigeria. A well-structured questionnaire was used to elicit information from 90 palm oil processors. The data was analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. Majority of the respondents were young, married, and experienced in palm oil processing. Women are mostly involved in palm oil processing using manual method of processing with oil palm fruits sourced more from family farms. Respondents require training for manual and mechanized processing methods. Socioeconomic factors have significant influence on different stages of palm oil processing. Poor extension service, high cost of labour, and processing machine were the most perceived constraints to palm oil processing in the study area. The study therefore concludes that there is need for training in oil palm processing. Extension service providers should intensify efforts in this regard so as to boost the palm oil supply both within and outside the country.

Design of Experiments as a subfield of statistics has its origins trying to understand systems and making decisions. In the context of food supply chains where agricultural and farm systems, packaging and processing plants, cold chains and food logistics, product design, warehousing, retailing, among many other steps and actors, come together to produce safe, healthy, nutritious, reliable, affordable, and sustainable food products. At each stage, many problems have to be solved and decisions have to be made from agricultural practices, scheduling, land use, costing, and pricing, at the farm and orchard level. A general outline is presented on the general workflow; illustrated through examples and a current review of some of the applications of design of experiments in the context of food production help provide some directives and guidelines. Global trends and challenges that influence both the food industry and the practice of design of experiments are discussed.

We live in a sea of numbers. surrounded by a culture of statistics—IQs, grade point averages, gross domestic products, batting aver­ages, Dow-Jones Industrial Averages, probabilities of precipitation—it is not easy to imagine a world just awakening to the meaning of numbers. Statistics, in the sense of numbers representing data, first appeared in the eighteenth century and became a regular feature of the cultural landscape in the early nineteenth century. Nothing illustrates better the transformative power of numbers than the changing views of one of the era’s most influential thinkers, Thomas Robert Malthus. Malthus (1766 –1834) will always be remembered for his lapidary statements such as: “Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence only increases in an arithmetical ratio.” This statement sounds mathematical, as if it were a law of nature, yet ominous: “if unchecked,” disaster will surely strike. That is how Malthusians, then and now, have always read it. Malthus wrote these words in 1798 to refute giddy optimists like the Marquis de Condorcet and William Godwin, who believed in the inevitability of progress. Though sincere, he wrote his Essay on Population without benefit of data. It aroused a passionate debate and encouraged the government to undertake the first census in British history in 1801. Armed with census data, Malthus revisited his ideas. He published a second edition in 1803 and, in later years, four more revised editions; they bore the same title but a different subtitle, for they were really a different work: many times longer, full of information, and much more refined. In the course of his life, Malthus changed his thinking about population and subsistence. He no longer predicted an inevitable demographic disaster but instead realized that “in no state that we have yet known, has the power of population been left to exert itself with perfect freedom.” Unlike North Americans and “uncivilized” peoples, Europeans kept their numbers under control by preventive checks, rather than waiting for famines to bring populations in line with the food supply: “An infrequency of the marriage union from the fear of a family . . . may be considered . . . as the most powerful of the checks, which in modern Europe, keep down the population to the level of the means of subsistence.”

Purpose: The chapter describes the economic impact of Covid-19 on the agri-food market in Poland and its influence along food supply chains by discussing demand accommodation and alterations in supply channels. Design/methodology/approach: The study delivers a critical literature review, analyzes secondary data, and utilizes available statistics. Findings: The chapter shows the impact of Covid-19 on the various branches of agri-food sector like cattle meat, cereal, poultry, pork, milk, and horticulture. It shows quantitative information, time period, the level of sales decreases and increases, and price fluctuations caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Furthermore, the study scrutinizes consumer reactions to the first and latter period of economy lockdown in respect to the food products. Food demand adjustments were shown in respect to types of food product, shopping frequency, and the use of alternative delivery channels. Practical implications: The analysis of the agri-food market reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic allows us to find bottlenecks in the system and design support programs to help farmers, intermediaries, and delivery channels of food to build resistance to similarly extreme situations. Originality and value: The chapter presents in a short and complex manner the Polish agri-food market’s reaction to the coronavirus pandemic. The reactions of particular branches and the entire agri-food sector can be of interest to academics, governmental institutions, administration officials, and students.

In modern economic conditions, which are characterized by an increase in the impact on the environment, an increase in its pollution, the issue of introducing fundamentally new approaches to the implementation of the production process is extremely relevant.A significant place in the processes of eco-destructive impact on the environment is occupied by pollution of atmospheric air, water basins and soils due to the formation and storage of agricultural waste. At present, the problem of accumulation of agricultural waste is becoming extremely important. It is agricultural waste that generates the largest amount of greenhouse gases that have a significant eco-destructive impact on the environment.According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) [1], agriculture and livestock in particular is the second largest sector emitter by emissions of greenhouse gases. Thus, livestock production produces about 18% of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in the world, in particular, methane emissions from this industry account for about 16% of the total annual emissions in the world, nitrous oxide – 17% of the total annual volume; as well as a number of other environmentally harmful substances and compounds.For Ukraine, the issue of pollution from agriculture is extremely relevant, given the role of the agro-industrial complex in the country’s economy. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, in 2020 Ukraine exported agricultural products worth $18.8 billion, which is almost 40% of all national exports. Among the livestock products, the largest part in Ukraine’s exports is occupied by poultry products. According to the Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business, in the first half of 2021, 51 thousand tons of chicken were imported, which is 18% more than in the same period last year. In value terms, chicken imports amount to about $22 million [2].As a result of the activities of poultry farms, there is a powerful pollution of atmospheric air, water and soil. During the life of one chicken, 0.2-0.3 kg of litter is produced daily, a significant accumulation of waste from this industry without rational approaches to their disposal leads to an increase in the environmental burden on the environment.

Fruit and vegetables are an important sector of agricultural production in Uzbekistan, because they provide the population with sufficient food, as well as income for rural households. Despite this, there are a number of problems in terms of storage, harvesting, processing, and transportation dealing with supply chain management of fruits and vegetables. This article examines the existing mechanism of fruit and vegetables supply chain, as well as offers optimal solutions concerning these issues. In this research there were used secondary data collected from official statistics and professional literatures. As methods of research were used analysis and synthesis, comparison. By practicing improved supply chain management mechanism, there will be significant reduction in the wastages of fruits and vegetables which in turn will benefit both the farmers also the consumers by means of increased returns and decrease in prices respectively.

The application of global container logistics to high mobility children, such as those in foster care, asks designers to consider an empathic, human-centered approach to an institutionalized system of involuntary mobility, which can result in as many as 3-4 family “placements” per year for some children. In spite of grim statistics for youth in foster care related to graduation, teen pregnancy, drug use and imprisonment, these children develop many positive resiliencies around adaptability, emotional intelligence, empathy and efficiency. Working with a non-profit serving youth in foster care in Watts, Los Angeles, called Peace4Kids, whose motto is “community as family,” the concept of a “mobile village” was born. Following their lead, paired with a deep understanding of consumer culture’s collective intelligence around moving goods through cities, an innovative strategy was used to create a literal delivery platform for educational programming, in partnership with other non-profits, around food equity, social justice and eventually other vocational skills such as apparel arts, machine arts, fine arts and early education.

Achieving food security and resources sustainability have a high priority in agrarian policy that universal for all economies. Today modern agriculture has many complex challenges, so a sustainable agriculture approach is needed. Agriculture now must produce more food, using available natural resources efficiently and sustainably, including a reduction of post-harvest losses and waste, and developing agriculture more resilient to climate change. The Republic of Serbia has a good quality of agricultural land, favorable ratio of available land per capita, and favorable climate conditions for agricultural production. However, Serbia has a large number of small farms with fragmented property, family workforce, low level of technical equipment and capital, which have a high production costs and irrational use of resources. The aim of this paper is to examine the impact ofresource use on the level of food security in the Republic of Serbia. The survey data were taken from the FAOSTAT database, World Bank, as well as the national statistics of the Republic of Serbia and hierarchical regression analysis was used. The results of the research have shown that resource supply has a statistically significant impact on the level of food security in the Republic of Serbia.

Food supply chains are becoming increasingly more complex, contributing to emergence of new threats and risks for the involved stakeholders. Additionally, the information technology accelerated development of new and more productive ways of collaboration among organizations (members of supply chains) and helped to optimize their processes. Tighter collaboration among those companies is only possible if sufficient level of trust is established among them, which is often an obstacle that is not easily overcome. Since individual companies (which are part of supply chain) are unable to verify and rely on the data that is provided by third parties, the potential advantages are not fully realized. In this article we try to identify a possibility to remove one important element of this obstacle by using Benford’s law as the basis for general-purpose verification tool that is additionally enhanced by statistics based methods of machine learning algorithms that can be implemented in IT supported business operations. The potential usefullness of those methods lies in the fact that they are able to identify the patterns and correlations without explicit users’ input.

Human activities like fossil fuel retrieval, biomass burning, waste disposal, and residential and commercial use of energy are continuing to effect the Earth’s energy budget by changing the emissions and resulting atmospheric concentrations of radioactively important gases, aerosols, and by changing land surface properties. These activities negatively contribute to Earth’s greenhouse gases including water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and ozone (O3). Approximately 82% of greenhouse gases are developed from the United States, Asia, and Europe alone. Food and their extraction processes, including transportation of those extracts, account for about 35% of those greenhouse gases. This includes wasted, rotten, and uneaten food. About 40% of food in the United States today goes uneaten, resulting in more than 20 pounds of food per person every month. Not only does this mean that Americans are throwing out upwards of $165 billion each year, amounting to $1,350 to more than $2,275 annually in waste per family of four, but also 25 percent of all freshwater and huge amounts of unnecessary chemicals, energy, and land. Moreover, almost all of that uneaten food ends up rotting in landfills. This number has increased, in regards to organic matter, from approximately 16 percent of U.S. methane emissions in 2010 upwards to 25 percent in 2012. With the increase in supply and demand of food, in addition to the lower consumer cost, the statistics of wasted feedstocks are rapidly increasing. The purpose of this research is to utilize wasted food to extract natural hydrocarbon oils through thermal depolymerization in order to develop an alternative fuel. Thermal depolymerization is a hydrous pyrolysis process that breaks down long chained polymers into simpler compounds and light hydrocarbons, much of which can be separated and used for fuel. Polymers include essentially all organic matter i.e. matter made of living or once-living things, which include petroleum products like plastic, styro-foam, and nylon, as well as plant and animal material, and manure. Potatoes and corn starch were used as feedstocks for this research and thermal depolymerization was conducted on the feedstocks for analysis and fuel collection. With optimum use and a mature thermal depolymerization technology, the Earth might comfortably support 10 times its current population at a high standard of living. There is enough biomass existing now accessible on the surface of the earth to provide 100 years of human energy use.

The dramatic change in various spheres of daily life caused by the COVID-19 virus epidemic has had many ambiguous effects on the Latvian fisheries sector. As part of a national research program project reCOVery-LV to study the virus’s effect on the supply chain, LLU researchers concluded that Latvian fish processing demonstrates a multidirectional effect. The interpretation of statistics and the interviews conducted confirmed the hypothesis that the virus has had negative and positive effects within one sector of the economy. This industry heterogeneity places high demands on support criteria, making them more targeted for successful risk management. The research aims to analyze the fishery sector and identify the COVID-19 pandemic effect on Latvia’s fish sector. As part of the study, all stages of the fish food chain were studied, risks were identified, their relative relevance was determined, and measures were proposed to neutralize these risks. This article summarizes the results of the study, prioritizes the implementation of countermeasures that reduce risks and are recommended by the results of the risk assessment, and complement the results of the study, identifies measures aimed at the long-term and sustainable development of the industry, based on the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.