Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Food – Safety measures – European Union countries »

Abstract Under the Novel Food Regulation (258/97/EC), a novel food is defined as a food or food ingredientthat does not have a significant history of consumption within the European Union prior to 15May 1997. Novel foods are required to undergo a pre-market safety assessment and must beauthorised before they can legally be marketed in the EU. A proposal to revise and update the EUNovel Food Regulation was published in 2008. This proposed a definition for nanomaterials, acentralised and faster authorisation procedure and specific measures for traditional foods fromthird countries. As a result of disagreement on the inclusion of foods from cloned animals, theEuropean Parliament and Council were unable to reach agreement on the new regulation beforethe deadline of 30 March 2011. New discussions on the updated Regulation are expected to takeplace in 2012. So far 66 novel foods and food ingredients have been authorised for use in the EU.The most popular products are Noni juice (juice of the fruits of Morinda citrifolia) and phytosterolsin a number of foodstuffs

The market internationalisation, free trading of products and the transport of services within and between the European Union Member States, more and more is based on their quality and integrity. In this particularly exigent environment, in markets that are rapidly altered with fast rythms and within the frames of an intensive worldwide competition, it is obvious the need for "quality". A term, which, in order to become reality, requires patience and insistence, collective efforts, systemisation and a spirit of collaboration. It should become a way of life I could say. But nothing could be done if personally ourselves, collectively and with collaboration, do not realise that the quality begins, continues, but never ends. Questions that are directly related to health, safety, environment, food and other factors come daily in the topicality. In order to be answered, industries and control laboratories should daily be in the position to prove their supremacy, their reliability and technical competence with the application of a suitable quality control system (QA/QC). With this assumption, from the moment that the European Union initiated the European Integrated Market, it became clear that the commercial barriers between the countries can be revoked, only when a country entrusts the quality of the trials of the other country or more generally it's "Quality Level". For all the above and because as much the measurements as the quality of foods considerably affect us, Community or National rules have been established in order to assure us that the controls are reliably executed to guarantee the quality of foods for our protection. In this framework, the European Union, following the entire process "from the farm to the fork" by applying internationally acceptable quality standards, very recently established the new legislation regime named "Hygiene Package". This legislation includes a series of regulations which are directly related to hygiene, control and food enterprises monitoring, in order to control the processes kept of the Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points (HACCP) (Regulation 852/2004), special hygiene rules for the food of animal origin (Regulation 853/2004), special rules for the organisation of official controls (Regulation 854/2004), general rules for the execution of official controls for food and feed trade (Regulation 882/2004) and finally the determination of general legislation principles for foods, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and the food safety processes and traceability towards the human health protection (Regulation 178/2002). Coming to modern production and focusing to food production safety from the point of view of chemical residues (veterinary drugs and environmental pollutants), we find out that an enormous number of chemical exogenic agents of a varied activity often constitute the main cause of a complicated situation of a food deteriorated with chemical residues and their quality level reduction, which finally leads, not only to the reduction of consumers' confidence, but also to their final rejection. In this issue and after a series of food crises like that in old days with hormones as well as recently with BSE, dioxins and the detection of several other residues in animal and plant products exported from our country, but also recently with the Avian influenza, consumers' confidence was shaken. Thus, the European Union concluded to establish a new scientific institution to provide it with independent scientific advices on food safety issues in the whole length of the food chain. The outcome was, as it had been initially decided with the White Book on Food Safety, the establishment of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Finally, in order the complete safeguard process of high quality foods to be concluded, of health and of good animal and plant management by taking suitable functioning measures of the internal market, the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) was created. The aim of this system is to provide the Competent Authorities with an effective way of information exchange for the measures which should be taken in order to safeguard food safety.

Abstract Globalization has created a dynamic market, which has dramatically intensified interchanges of goods and information as well as the flow of people among nations. This international phenomenon offers the consumer a choice between a wide variety of foods from diverse locations. However, there are challenges to improving food security and safety on a global scale; the major question is how food safety can be guaranteed while increasing the complexity of food supply chains. A food produced in a certain location usually contains ingredients, additives, and preservatives from different and distant origins. Although countries take several food control measures, their institutional and regulatory frameworks diverge widely, as do the definitions of food crisis, food incidents, and risk management approaches. The present review discusses some past food safety issues and lessons learned. Convergences and differences in the regulatory framework of food control agencies in different regions of the world are herein revealed. Emerging risks are also discussed, particularly the spread of antibiotic resistance in the food chain and the environment, as well as the rise of new antibiotic-resistant pathogenic strains with broader tolerance to environmental factors.

The article presents the results of the analysis of legal acts and substantiates the advantages of implementing product safety management systems at enterprises, food producers, based on the principles of HACCP. Ukraine's desire to enter international food markets and the latest trends in cooperation with the European Union and other countries will encourage the country's leadership to harmonize Ukrainian food legislation with European ones. The obligation to approximate national legislation to the legislation of European countries, including in the field of sanitary and phytosanitary measures, is a guarantee of the creation and implementation of an effective control system in Ukrainian industries. The article presents normative-legal and legislative acts that determine the procedure for ensuring the safety of food products that are produced, are in circulation, imported or shipped to the customs territory of Ukraine, or, conversely, are exported and shipped from it. The introduction of food safety systems based on HACCP principles helps to optimize technological and ancillary processes, and, ultimately, to obtain a consistently safe, high-quality food product, which is an important step to meet these requirements. Confirmation of the implementation of an effective safety system based on HACCP principles is to ensure that the measures for the production of safe food products carried out by manufacturers are adequate and meet the goal - the production of products that do not harm the consumer, provided the correct method of consumption. In Ukraine there are changes in national legislation and its approximation to the legislation of European countries, relating to the implementation of official control by the state for the full implementation of the HACCP system in enterprises. The key reason for implementing the HACCP system is effective food quality and safety management, it is a tool to protect the reputation of the producer and in the long run, all players in the food chain - from producers to consumers - receive significant benefits.

This study describes the results of an on-line survey of fresh produce supply chain experts who work with producers from the Global North (n =41, 20 countries) and the Global South (n =63, 29 countries). They expressed their opinion using 1 to 5 Likert scales on several items related to four types of food safety and quality standards and legislation: Codex Alimentarius standards, European Union legislation, national legislation, and private standards. The results reflect the different circumstances under which the Southern and Northern producers operate in relation to the local organization, regulation, and support of the sector; but they also indicate similar challenges, in particular, the challenge of private standards, which were perceived to demand a higher implementation effort than the other three types of standards. Private standards were also strongly perceived to exclude Southern and Northern small- and medium-scale producers from high-value markets, whereas European Union legislation was perceived to strongly exclude, in particular, small- and medium-scale Southern producers. The results further highlight concerns about costly control measures and third-party certification that are required by downstream buyers but that are mostly paid for by upstream suppliers. Food standards are seen in their dual role as a catalyst for implementation of structured food safety management systems on the one hand and as a nontariff barrier to trade on the other hand. The results of the survey also pointed up the advantages of enforcing food safety and food quality standards in terms of knowledge spillover to noncertified activities, increased revenues, and improved food safety of delivered produce. Survey results highlight the importance of technical assistance and support of producers by governments and producer cooperatives or trade associations in the implementation and certification of food standards, along with increased awareness of and training of individuals in food protection practices to ensure food safety.

ABSTRACT Standards and regulations related to spirit drinks have been established by different countries and international organizations to ensure the safety and quality of spirits. Here, we introduce the principles of food safety and quality standards for alcoholic beverages and then compare the key indicators used in the distinct standards of the Codex Alimentarius Commission, the European Union, the People's Republic of China, the United States, Canada, and Australia. We also discuss in detail the “maximum level” of the following main contaminants of spirit drinks: methanol, higher alcohols, ethyl carbamate, hydrocyanic acid, heavy metals, mycotoxins, phthalates, and aldehydes. Furthermore, the control measures used for potential hazards are introduced. Harmonization of the current requirements based on comprehensive scope analysis and the risk assessment approach will enhance both the trade and quality of distilled spirits. This review article provides valuable information that will enable producers, traders, governments, and researchers to increase their knowledge of spirit drink safety requirements, control measures, and research trends.

The review is devoted to the problems of legislative regulation of genetically modified organisms in European Union. EU legislation in this field is more strict than that in the other countries. It is based on the difference between natural organisms and those created artificially through genetic engineering. The core of the GMO legislation is the precautionary principle which aims at protecting environment and human health. This principle is not compatible with the principle of presumed safety of the product which underpins legislation of many countries-EU trade partners. Asymmetry in regulation leads to complications in trade and to noncompliance with EU legislation. A control of GMO non-authorized for use on the territory of EU in imported food and feed is realized through inspections, conducted on the level of EU states. Undertaken measures, however, can not guarantee consumer’s freedom of choice. All the mentioned problems in the field of GMO regulation dictate the necessity to update the relevant legislation.

Abstract. Introduction. A modern necessity and values of humanity, based on the synergy of the commercial orientation of producers and social requirements in agricultural raw materials and food, are closely linked to the latest trends in building a socially oriented economy. Besides this, the experience of the world shows that most economically developed countries already have an effective and multilevel system of quality control and food safety. Nowadays, our country is only at the initial stage of forming the concept of food quality and safety. An analysis of management processes shows some problems, both regulatory and organizational, and economics, the solution of which determined the relevance of the research topic. Purpose. The article aims to study the organizational and economic conditions of the organization and the implementation of the quality management system also the safety of agricultural products at domestic enterprises. Finally, this will increase the level of competitiveness of the enterprise.Results. The European Union is usually the most exemplary in food security and safety. It is the best in the food standardization and technical regulation of their quality. Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union provides for the transformation of food policy in general, in particular, the implementation of the strategy �From farm to fork� (�Farm to Fork�). The reform aims to create a healthy and more sustainable food system in the European Union. The HACCP concept is the basis of the standards of the food safety management system, so to increase the level of competitiveness of agricultural enterprises, it is advisable to take the following organizational measures: to create a department to ensure safety and product quality; to introduce the HACCP system in the production process; to improve training and advanced training of enterprise personnel. In addition, companies should use block chain technologies in their practice to quickly identify shortcomings and the causes of their occurrence, as well as take the necessary measures to prevent its further spread. Conclusions. Analysis of global trends' necessity for the sustainability of human life shows that the population has the right to receive a quality product that is safe for consumption. However, cases of food poisoning due to the risk of biological, chemical, physical, and other contamination still occur, and quite often, regardless of whether they occurred naturally due to environmental reasons or due to disruption of the production process. Therefore, to avoid them, the block diagram of the technological process of growing products (for example, winter wheat) identified ten critical points and proposed to pay more attention to traceability or block chain technologies to minimize risks. The HACCP system is an effective regulatory method and maintenance which take everything into account in all stages of the food product life cycle - from the receipt of raw materials to the use of products by the final consumer. The overall advantage is that HACCP is a very effective method of curtailment the risk of failure and maximizing product quality and safety.

For consumer protection across borders, the European Union has established the rapid alert system for dangerous non-food products (RAPEX), with the overarching goal of preventing or limiting the sale and use of non-food products that present a serious risk for the health and safety of consumers. In our study, we comprehensively analyzed RAPEX notifications associated with products posing a microbiological risk from 2005 through 2017. Additional information was retrieved from national laboratory reports. A total of 243 microbiologically harmful consumer products triggered notifications in 23 out of 31 participating countries. About half of the products were reported by Spain, Germany, and Italy. Notifications mainly included contaminated toys, cosmetics, and chemical products. Depending on the notifying country, measures taken to prevent the spread of dangerous products were predominantly ordered either by public authorities or economic operators. The interval between microbiological diagnosis and the date of RAPEX notifications considerably varied between RAPEX member states, ranging between a few days and 82 weeks. The nature and extent of RAPEX usage substantially differed among member states, calling for harmonization and optimization. Slight modifications to RAPEX could help to systematically record microbiological hazards, which may improve the assessment of potential health risks due to contaminated non-food products.

The coronavirus pandemic, which started in late 2019, is one of the devastating crises that has affected human lives and the economies of many countries across the globe. Though economies have been affected, some sectors (such as food and fisheries sectors) are more vulnerable and prone to the deleterious impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper highlights the various disruptions (safety at workplace, loss of harvest and processing activity, loss of export opportunities and income) faced by the Newfoundland and Labrador fisheries due to several restrictive measures (especially on mobility, social distancing, quarantine, and, in extreme cases, lockdown) to curtail the spread of the virus. Additionally, this paper makes a case that Newfoundland and Labrador fisheries can be managed sustainably during and after the pandemic by suggesting practical recommendations borrowed from two sustainability frameworks (Canadian Fisheries Research Network and the EU Setting the Right Safety Net framework) for managing fisheries in Canada and the European Union.

Si le droit connaît les médicaments et les denrées alimentaires, il ne reconnaît pas les alicaments. Or, ces dernières années ont vu l’apparition et le développement, sur le marché de l’Union européenne, de « produits-frontière » c'est-à-dire de produits se trouvant à la frontière entre les médicaments et les aliments. Confrontées à un vaste conflit de qualification causé par l’ambivalence conceptuelle des « produits-frontière », les institutions de l’Union ont, au nom de la libre circulation des marchandises ainsi que de la nécessité d’une protection accrue des consommateurs et de la santé publique, entamé, dès le début des années 2000, une large harmonisation des dispositions nationales relatives à ces produits. Considérés comme aliments, leur nature particulière nécessite cependant une approche adaptative de la part du législateur européen. Cette nouvelle approche de l’aliment par le droit, favorable à la reconnaissance d’une santé alimentaire, tant convoitée par la société contemporaine, ne résout toutefois pas l’ambiguïté quant à la place à accorder aux « produits-frontière » dans le corpus juridique de l’Union européenne.
Doctorat en Sciences juridiques
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Defence date: 25 June 2010
Examining Board: Mads Andenas (University of Oslo); Marise Cremona (EUI); Christian Joerges (Supervisor, former EUI and University of Bremen); Ellen Vos (University of Maastricht)
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digital archive of EUI PhD theses
This thesis aims to present a critical legal perspective on the current direction of European Union (EU) food safety regulation. Through an analysis of three regulatory mechanismsmutual recognition, scientific risk analysis and standardisation-combined with a study of the evolution of food legislation in the EU, I seek to show how the current framework fails to face new challenges, such as the globalization of world trade and the last two enlargements. In particular, the thesis focuses upon the case of a newly acceded EU member state, namely Poland. The main argument presented in the thesis is that an enlarged and more diversified Europe must not disregard the numerous socio-economic implications of market regulation. If not properly acknowledged and reflected in the regulatory scheme, the mismatch between market regulation and socio-economic factors can lead to a kind of gradual "disembedding" of the regulatory framework, in the Polanyian sense of the term. This is of critical importance as the EU project is not one-dimensionally geared towards securing greater European unity, but equally concerned with preserving unique European diversity-in the field of food as well as in other aspects. I am thus suggesting that the existing regulatory approach can be opened up to include a wider set of relevant socio-economic implications, allowing for protection of diversity while aiming for greater homogeneity. The legal system for the regulation of food can be rebalanced to become more flexible and responsive by shifting the use of existing regulatory mechanisms, in order to diversify regulatory intervention. First, this would require improvement of application of the risk analysis model, in order to guarantee inclusion of valid socio-economic concerns in the decision-making process. Second, it would also entail reliance on managed mutual recognition in those areas where protection of diversity does not collide with protection of consumers (for example, where either longstanding trust has been available or national codes have provided sufficient safety guarantees), and where consequently imposition of strict standardization is not necessary. Due to legitimate concerns with crisis, the regulatory framework for food in Europe has generated a bias against diversity leading to unforeseen and unintended consequences. This thesis argues that this need not be so.

Defence date: 20 May 1997
Examining board: Prof. R. Barents (Luxembourg/Maastricht) ; Prof. R. Dehousse (Florence), co-supervisor ; Prof. Ch. Joerges (Bremen/Florence), supervisor ; Judje P.J.G. Kapteyn (Luxembourg)
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digitised archive of EUI PhD theses completed between 2013 and 2017

AbstractSince 1997, traditional foods coming from Third Countries and not regularly consumed in the European territory before 1997 are included in the definition of Novel Foods provided by the EC Legislator. This peculiar category of ‘new’ foods has raised significant issues, also at the international level, due to the important and strict link between the marketing of such foods and the promotion of sustainable development. The chapter aims at deeply analysing the legislative debate, as well as the regulatory solutions finally approved by the EU legislator, by highlighting the persistent challenges, paying particular attention to the difficult balance-point determined—or still to be determined—among the free circulation of goods, food safety, food security and sustainability.

Abstract In this chapter the authors first briefly show how early activation, intensive service provision, and access to active labor market policies (ALMPs) in the first six months of a job seeker’s unemployment spell gained increasing important in the years following the Great Recession in the countries of the European Union. They then go on to review the evidence on these instruments, with special attention paid to experimental studies. While the evidence on timing of participation in active measures is weak and inconclusive, the authors show that intensive meetings between job seekers and employment counselors speeds up return to work. It seems that this approach is cost-efficient but is no panacea because it might lead to negative spillover effects in slack local labor markets.

This study covers an investigation into occupational exposure to benzene emitted from gasoline during refuelling in Greater Georgetown. Pump attendants are particularly vulnerable as they are constantly exposed to gasoline vapour during their work day. Two mathematical models were used to determine a concentration of benzene to which gasoline pump attendants could potentially be exposed. Then the potential health implications of this exposure were examined. The benzene exposure concentrations were found to be 1.5mg/m3 and 0.4mg/m3 for Shell and Guyoil Service Stations respectively, which are within the permissible exposure limits set by the developed world (e.g. by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health in the United States of America and countries of the European Union). Due to certain limitations of this research, future research using more accurate methods is required to determine a general occupational exposure for all pump attendants in Greater Georgetown at any given time, and measures to reduce exposure should be considered.

The mandatory requirements for the fishery and aquaculture products, their production and sale in force in the territory of the Customs Union of the Eurasian Economic Union (CU EAEU) arise from the regulatory and legal acts of the Eurasian Economic Union and its predecessor - the Customs Union - and apply in a package approach similar to the law of the European Union pertaining to the food safety area. The requirements of the EAEU technical regulations have been analysed taking into account that European exporting enterprises are first of all obliged to comply with the requirements of the listed EU regulatory and legal acts applicable to their production process and products. The aim of this paper was to run a comparative analysis on the mandatory requirements of the food legislation of the European and Customs Unions regarding fishery and aquaculture products, their production and sale. The issues of certification of certain product categories are analysed separately, the requirements for canned fish being highlighted. The analysis is relevant for all fish processing companies which may consider the possibility of starting export to the countries of the CU EAEU and are intended to reduce costs associated with products’ entry into these markets.

The area of OSH is currently widely debated issue in the European Union and also in other countries of the world. It is a given fact that the level of development of OSH standards and their application in daily life of a human is directly related to the quality of life and economic development of society. In that connection there must be interest in the educational system that perform the task of preparing the public perception of the importance of OSH in the lives of individuals and the acquisition of respect the OHS rules in work and non-work activities.Legal norms and OSH measures are very precisely elaborated. However daily experience of real life shows the low level of perception, understanding and respect for the principles of safe work and human health protection at the workplace and during free time.Authors of the report analyzes the state educational program and the curriculum framework to answer the question, whether the current education system in the Slovak Republic in relation to current legal standards and rules adequately prepares graduates of particular types of schools, to show an interest for safe conditions of work and life in healthy environment.

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias