Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Food consumption – Statistics – Periodicals »

Adam Matthew Digital’s historical, primary source-focused Food and Drink in History will amply support not only food studies programs, but multiple disciplines across academia including historical research, gender studies, business and marketing programs, health and nutrition programs, technology programs, social science and education programs, and interdisciplinary studies. Its extensive and international collection of cookbooks represent ethnicities and cultures across the globe and time, as well as rarities like multiple versions of the Apicus Cookbooks; it contains historical videos, video interviews and cooking demonstrations, government documents, menus, periodicals, and ephemera, with the bulk of the material being from the sixteenth to twenty-first century, and all of it dealing with either the production and/or consumption of food and drink.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of China’s urban segregation caused by hukou restrictions on food consumption. Design/methodology/approach Based on the 2007–2009 Urban Household Survey data from six China provinces conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the authors adopt a propensity score matching (PSM) method to correct for potential selection bias. A Rosenbaum bounds test is applied to evaluate the sensitivity of the PSM results to unobserved variables. Findings The results show that holding rural hukou (RHs) reduces the consumption of livestock products and vegetables and fruit by 8.8 and 4.8 percent, respectively. The status of hukou does not affect the consumption of grain and edible oil. Hukou impacts on food consumption are heterogeneous across income levels, with low-income and middle-income households more vulnerable to urban segregation and hukou discriminations. A stronger motivation for precautionary saving and higher welfare expenditures that not compensated by social security lead to the lower food consumption by migrant households with RHs. Originality/value This paper advances the research frontier by investigating the impacts of hukou system on the structure of food consumption, which accurately reflects the household welfare.

Current dietary patterns contribute negatively to greenhouse gas emissions and to the increased prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Earlier research on sustainable food consumption mainly focuses on diets, rather than single meals. Diets are difficult to measure, which is usually executed through self-reporting. This paper aims to identify frequently prepared dishes in a home setting through sales statistics, and how they can be altered to reduce climate impact and increase nutritional value. Commonly prepared food dishes in a home setting among customers of a major food retailer in Sweden were identified through sales statistics. The dishes were altered to reach nutritional and climate impact guidelines. Commonly prepared food dishes exceeded goals for climate boundaries by more than threefold and were not in line with nutritional guidelines. The content of fat, including saturated fat, was too high. Vegetables, fruits, wholegrains and fiber need to be increased. To reduce climate impact and increase nutritional value, the amount of animal-based product need to be reduced and/or exchanged to plant-based alternatives. This research contributes empirically to understandings of how portfolio management decisions influence food consumption based on sales statistics and how nutritional and climate impact guidelines can be applied from a single meal perspective.

Over the past decades, industrial development, urbanization, globalization, as well as economic development and socio-economic crises have caused rapid changes in diet and lifestyle of the population of Yakutia. According to existing international statistics, quality of diet has a significant impact on health and life expectancy of population. The article is concerned with specific features of food consumption patterns in Yakutia as a region, as well as with compliance of energy and nutritional value of the food consumed with the recommended standards. The study is based on a summary of state statistics data starting from the mid-1990s, which allowed to compare behavior and structure of food consumption with the key socio-economic indicators of living standards. Standard statistical methods were used for the analysis.

The score of the expected food pattern, the quantity, variety, and quality of food consumed, can be used to assess a person's eating quality. The fact that Pekanbaru City's PPH score for 2020 is only 84.7 points below the optimal value demonstrates that its citizens' food consumption is not yet varied and nutritionally balanced. This study examines PPH scores for household food consumption among P2L participants and elements that affect the caliber of food consumed in P2L-participating families. This study used a survey methodology, with the respondent number being 65-person total sample chosen via stratified random selection. Analysis of PPH scores for household food consumption in P2L participants used descriptive statistics. In contrast, inferential statistics and multiple linear regression are used to analyze the variables that affect the P2L household food intake PPH score. The results showed that the P2L participant's household food consumption PPH score was 85.4. P2L program increases PPH score in Pekanbaru. The P2L household food consumption PPH score is primarily influenced by age, educational attainment, and family size.

The essence of this paper is to highlight the cultural differences between two geographically separate cultures. Two aspects are examined: food culture and tourism. In general, as will be shown later in some figures, tourism in Bali and in general will increase steadily. There will be growing new problems and consequences, which I will explain in order to make their dimensions known. Of course, there is also the question of what opportunities this will bring. There will also be insights into the opinions of local Germans and Balinese. I will use the empirical method, i.e. I will look for suitable sources on the basis of my research question. I will use the university network ProQuest and search for keywords, as listed below. I will also search the WordWideWeb for appropriate statistics on the development of tourism to support my theses. My results show that tourism development has two sides, one positive and one negative. It can come to networks between the different nations, continents and cultures, which is naturally a large enrichment on both sides. On the other hand, mass tourism destroys large parts of indigenous nature and culture. The aim is that more and more tourists will be able to come and, little by little, the actual cultural heritage, such as traditional architecture, will be lost. Index Terms— Cultural heritage, cultural differences, food culture, tourism development, traditional archi-tecture

The study aims to provide food businesses’ guide in formulating green food marketing campaigns. The study is anchored in the theory of planned behavior. The study used awareness of green foods as an extension variable. The research design is quantitative with descriptive, exploratory, and explanatory nature. It used descriptive statistics, exploratory factor analysis, Pearson r correlation, and multiple linear regression for data analysis. The Generation Z of Laguna, Philippines was highly aware of the features of green foods as healthy, quality, and environmentally safe foods. The attitude was found to be the most significant predictor of participants’ green food consumption behavioral intention. Managers are suggested to draw insights from the study in formulating a green food marketing campaign to encourage Generation Z consumers to consume green foods. Though convenience sampling limits the generalizability of the results, managers are still expected to benefit from the analytical generalizations that can be generated from the study.

The research aimed to assess the impact of human economic activities on the Yesil River Basin based on the observational data contained in Kazhydromet’s (Republic State Enterprise, RSE) hydrometeorological periodicals of 1933-2019. The additional analysis of numerous sources – statistics digests, online data of the Bureau of National Statistics under the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan (RK), monographs and scientific papers also allowed to reliably evaluate the overall water consumption in the country. The analysis of the available materials permitted identifying the indicators of irretrievable water consumption (IWC) by sectors of the national economy, including utilities, industry, and agriculture (irrigation). As the result, in terms of water use the IWC in the target watershed turned out to range between 3-29% of the total irretrievable water consumption (TIWC), with the corresponding highest value registered in 2007. It was also established that large reservoirs – Astaninskoye (Vyacheslavskoye) and Sergeyevskoye – have been exerting a regulating pressure on the long-term flow of the rivers comprising the basin. The review of the data obtained likewise indicates that, compared to the conditionally natural phase, their runoff reduction during the disturbed phase is caused not only by reservoir related but also agrotechnical and climate change impacts. The study findings can serve water management purposes, aid the design of hydraulic facilities, as well as expand regional theoretical and applied hydrological research.

Abstract Natural resources, namely land and water, as the main input factors for food production have undergone degradation in quantity and quality. On the other hand, demand for food has been growing due to population increase, which requires to intensify the use of natural resources that may harm environment. One of the solutions to this problem is by managing household food consumption pattern. This study aimed to analyze current and eco-friendly household consumption behavior in Indonesia to overcome the above problem. A technical review was conducted to various nationally representative publications, mainly from Statistics Indonesia, Indonesian Ministry of Health and Ministry of Agriculture. Results of this study indicated that in 2020 the Indonesian average daily energy and protein intake has met the recommendation. However, based on Desirable Dietary Pattern score, food consumption pattern was not balanced, dominated by cereals as carbohydrate food sources, while consumption of tubers, legumes, animal protein sources, vegetables, and fruits were still inadequate. Among high income households, consumption of animal products exceeded the recommendation whereas production of this food requires the highest environmental resources. Meanwhile, a large proportion of food waste are produced by household, mostly in the form of vegetables and fruits. Driving factors of household food selection were mainly based on social, economic, and cultural aspects rather than environmental consideration. Therefore, to reduce environmental damage, environmentally friendly food consumption behavior should be promoted. Government together with nutritionist and agronomists should create a grand design of food system which balances productivity, sustainability, and community nutrition fulfillment.

Food insecurity remains a critical issue globally, as highlighted by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 2). In 2023, nearly 25 million Nigerians faced food insecurity due to factors like insurgency affecting agricultural activities. This, therefore, worsens the food insecurity in the country. Thus, this study investigates the dynamics between household consumption expenditure patterns and food security in Nigeria over a decade (2010-2019). This was done by analysing four waves of secondary panel data of 4,000 nationally representative households of the Nigeria General Household Survey GHS - Panel collected by the National Bureau of Statistics in four waves over ten years from 2010 to 2019. Analytical tools used were descriptive statistics and the Food Security Index. The results of the consumption patterns of the respondents showed that the majority of the respondents were in the lowest band of per capita total expenditure and sectoral expenditures. The ratio of food secure to food insecure averages around 30% to 70% with a food security (surplus) index of 1.26 and food insecurity (shortfall) index of 0.53. Nigeria was food insecure during the period. The analysis concludes that boosting agricultural productivity, improving infrastructure, and addressing corruption are essential to enhance food security in Nigeria. The government is recommended to prioritize long-term strategies for food production, support vulnerable households, and leverage technological advancements to increase agricultural productivity. This study underscores the need for comprehensive policies to address the multifaceted challenges of food insecurity in Nigeria.

Thesis (MBA) -- Stellenbosch University, 2002.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The role of the Global Environment Monitoring System / Food Contamination Monitoring and Assessment Programme (GEMS/Food) is to assess and inform governments, the Codex Alimentarius Commission and other relevant institutions, as well as the public, on levels and trends of contaminants in food, their contribution to total human exposure, and their significance with regard to public health and trade. The primary objective of this study is to generate a reference list of “most commonly” consumed food items and average intakes of these items in the diet of South Africans, using GEMS/Food specifications. The list is required to be representative of foods eaten by children and adults from all age and ethnic groups in South Africa. The list will serve as a reference for the Department of Health who will undertake analyses of (a) toxic chemicals, such as pesticides, heavy metals and environmental contaminants; (b) naturally occurring toxins; and (c) food additives in the commonly consumed food items, as required by the Codex Alimentarius Commission. A secondary objective of the study is to derive average (mean) weights of South Africans in different age groups in order for the calculation of dietary exposure of selected contaminants. Secondary data-analysis was conducted on existing dietary databases (raw data) obtained from surveys undertaken in South Africa between 1983 and 2000. The National Food Consumption Survey (NFCS) served as a framework for compiling data on children since this was a national representative survey of 1 to 9 year-old children in South Africa. However there has never been a national dietary survey on adults in South Africa. Consequently the data had to be extrapolated from existing isolated surveys on adults. The dietary intake for the groups 1 to 5 years and 6 to 9 years was calculated only from the NFCS, and was not supplemented by other databases. The substantiation for treating age 10+ as a unit (and calling it an adult group), was the finding that average consumption of adolescents (10 – 15 years) did not differ significantly from that of adults when comparing mean energy intakes and mean quantities consumed, of age groups in the studies analysed. Data were analysed in terms of the percentage of the group consuming specific food main groups / subgroups / food items and on average per capita portion size. Factor analyses were done to analyse the inter-relationships among the food consumption patterns of NFCS 6-9 year-olds in 9 provinces, urban and rural separately, and the inter-relationships among food consumption patterns of these children and other children and adults in other independent food consumption studies. Two methods of estimating adult consumption were derived. The results from Method 1 corresponded with results from the NFCS, which was over-sampled for lower socio-economic areas, whereas the results from Method 2 ignored relationships with NFCS data and were based on the ethnic proportions of the population in South Africa. A final list, validated against international data, is included, which provides the per capita consumption per food item, average amount consumed (consumers only), the 97,5th percentile of the consumption figures (consumers only), as well as the corresponding gram per kilogram body weight consumed. These figures represent food items consumed by 3% or more of the South African population, for the following age groups: 1-5 years, 6-9 years and age 10+ (adults). Also, average weights of South Africans for the corresponding age groups are provided, which is calculated similarly to the methods used to calculate dietary intake.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die rol van die “Global Environment Monitoring System / Food Contamination Monitoring and Assessment Programme”, of (GEMS/Food), is om regerings, die “Codex Alimentarius”, ander relevante instellings en die publiek, op hoogte te hou (en selfs te monitor), ten opsigte van vlakke en neigings van kontaminasie in voedsel, die omvang van blootstelling aan die mens, en die beduidendheid hiervan vir openbare gesondheid en handel. Die doel van hierdie studie is om ‘n lys van voedselitems wat meestal deur die Suid- Afrikaanse bevolking geëet word, op te stel. Die lys moet hoeveelhede wat ingeneem word reflekteer, en moet aan die GEMS/Food spesifikasies voldoen. Dit moet verteenwoordigend wees van kos wat kinders en grootmense, van alle ouderdomsgroepe en rassegroepe in Suid- Afrika eet. Hierdie lys sal as verwysing vir die Departement van Gesondheid dien, om sodoende dan die berekenings van (a) toksiese chemikalië, soos plaagbeheermiddels, swaar metale en omgewingsbesoedelingsagente; (b) toksine wat natuurlik voorkom; en (c) voedselaanvullings in kossoorte, soos voorgeskryf deur die “Codex Alimentarius Commission”, te bereken. ‘n Sekondêre doel van hierdie studie is om die gemiddelde gewig van Suid-Afrikaners vir verskillende ouderdomsgroepe te bereken, om gebruik te word vir die berekenings van blootstelling aan geselekteerde toksine en besoedelingsagente. Sekondêre data-analise is op bestaande diëetkundige databasisse (oorspronklike data), wat opnames in Suid-Afrika vir die tydperk 1983 tot 2000 verteenwoordig, uitgevoer. Die Nasionale Voedselverbruikersopname, “National Food Consumption Survey” (NFCS), dien as raamwerk om die verbruik van kinders saam te stel, want hierdie opname was ‘n nasionaalverteenwoordigende opname van kinders van die ouderdom 1-9 jaar in Suid-Afrika. Daar was egter tot nou toe nog nie ‘n nasionaal-verteenwoordigende opname van voedselverbruik vir volwassenes in Suid-Afrika nie. Gevolglik moet hierdie data vanuit geïsoleerde opnames op volwassenes onttrek word. Voedselinname van kinders van ouderdomsgroepe 1-5 jaar en 6-9 jaar is dus bereken deur van die NFCS data gebruik te maak sonder aanvulling van enige ander databasisse. Die motivering om kinders van die ouderdomsgroep 10+ te hanteer in dieselfde groep as volwassenes, was die bevinding dat gemiddelde verbruik van adolessente (10 – 15 jaar) nie beduidend verskil het van die van volwassenes nie, veral as daar na die kilojoule inname en die hoeveelheid (gemeet in gram) inname, gekyk word. Die data van die verskeie opnames is ge-analiseer in terme van die persentasie verbruikers en die per kapita inname per voedselsoort, gegroepeerd en ongegroepeerd. Verbande tussen NFCS 6-9 jaar data in die 9 provinsies, landelike en stedelike gebiede afsonderlik beskou, asook verbande tussen hierdie kinders en kinders en volwassenes in onafhanklike ander opnames is met behulp van faktorontledings vasgestel. Twee metodes waarmee die voedselinnames van volwassenes voorspel kan word, is afgelei. Die resultate van Metode 1 stem met die resultate van die NFCS ooreen, waar die aanname is dat daar in die steekproefneming meer op kinders van laer sosio-ekonomiese areas gekonsentreer is. Metode 2 se resultate is gebaseer op die etniese verspreiding van die rassegroepe in Suid-Afrika, en voedselinnames van die blankes, byvoorbeeld, word meer in ag geneem. Die finale lys van voedselsoorte, wat gevalideer is teenoor ander internasionale studies, sluit die volgende veranderlikes in: die per kapita verbruik van die items, die gemiddelde verbruik per item (deur net die verbruikers van die spesifieke item in ag te neem), die 97,5de persentiel van voedselitems wat bereken is vir die groep wat die voedselitem verbruik, en ook die gram (gebaseer op die 97,5de persentiel verbruikers) per kilogram ligaamsgewig verbruik vir hierdie items. Hierdie syfers is vir voedselitems wat deur 3% of meer van die verbruikers in Suid-Afrika geneem word, en vir die volgende ouderdomsgroepe: 1-5 jaar, 6-9 jaar vir die ouderdom 10+ . Die gemiddelde gewig van Suid-Afrikaners vir die ooreenstemmende ouderdomsgroepe is ook bereken deur van dieselfde tegnieke gebruik te maak as die waarmee die voedselinnames bereken is.

Os guias alimentares orientam o público quanto às práticas alimentares saudáveis. As indústrias de alimentos têm desenvolvido produtos com redução de gorduras (PRG) para atender a demanda que encontra dificuldade em seguir as orientações propostas. Este trabalho objetivou caracterizar o padrão alimentar dos domicílios consumidores de PRG. A população foi composta por 2337 domicílios que participaram da POF/FIPE/USP 1998-1999, que estudou uma amostra probabilística da área metropolitana de São Paulo. Foram considerados domicílios consumidores de PRG aqueles que apresentaram consumo de produtos desnatado, semi-desnatado e light com redução de gordura (n=445 19,1%). Foi investigado o perfil demográfico, socioeconômico e de escolaridade. O consumo alimentar domiciliar foi obtido pela média per capita/dia da unidade domiciliar, ajustada para gênero e idade, para 14 grupos de alimentos. A Análise de Componentes Principais foi utilizada para a obtenção do padrão alimentar, a Regressão Logística Múltipla e a Análise Discriminante foram utilizadas para identificar as diferenças entre os grupos. Os domicílios consumidores de PRG apresentaram escolaridade, renda familiar, idade dos integrantes da família, disponibilidade de frutas, hortaliças, produtos industrializados, lipídios de adição e açúcares superiores aos não consumidores. O padrão alimentar dos domicílios consumidores de PRG se caracterizou como \"tradicional\" e entre os não consumidores se caracterizou como \"misto\". Os resultados sugerem que os domicílios consumidores de PRG não apresentam estrutura de alimentar homogênea e o padrão alimentar adotado pode não atender as recomendações nutricionais.
The Food Guides orientate the public to healthy practices concerning food. The food industry has developed low-fat products to attend the demand from those who have difficulties to follow the proposed instructions. This work focused on describing the food standard at low-fat consumers\' domiciles. The .population was composed by 2,337 domiciles, which participated in a research - realized by POF/FIPE/USP in 1998-1999 - about a probabilistic sample from a metropolitan area in São Paulo. We considered low-fat consumers\' domiciles; those who presented skim, semi-skim and Light products consumption (#445 19.1 %). Herein, the demographical, socioecohomical and scholarity level profiles, were also investigated. The housing food consumption was obtained by the per capita/day average at the unity of domicile, tailored to gender and age, for 14 aliments groups. The Principal Components Analyze was used to obtain the food standard as the Multiple Logistical Regression and Discriminat Analyse were used to identify the differences among the groups. The housing low-fat consumers presented scholarity level, the revenue, age of the family members, availability of fruit and greens, industrial products, addition of lipids and sugars higher than those who were not consumers. The food standard at the low-fat consumers was characterized as \"traditional\" and among those who were nor consumers it was characterized as \"mix\". The results suggest that the low-fat consumers have not presented a homogeneous food structure and the food standard adopted by then may not consider nutritional recommendations.

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 289-319).
xxiv, 378 leaves : ill. (some col.) ; 30 cm.
Explores the link between cultural, social and individual factors and the structure and content of food perceptions. The aims of the thesis were to investigate the content of taste and nutrition perceptions within Korea and Australia and to assess how shared these perceptions were using Q-methodology. Within-country differences between younger and older males and females were examined and the relationships of food perceptions to food use explored.
Thesis (Ph.D.(Sc.))--Adelaide University, Dept. of Psychology, 2001

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 289-319).
xxiv, 378 leaves : ill. (some col.) ; 30 cm.
Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library.
Explores the link between cultural, social and individual factors and the structure and content of food perceptions. The aims of the thesis were to investigate the content of taste and nutrition perceptions within Korea and Australia and to assess how shared these perceptions were using Q-methodology. Within-country differences between younger and older males and females were examined and the relationships of food perceptions to food use explored.
Thesis (Ph.D.(Sc.))--Adelaide University, Dept. of Psychology, 2001

O excesso de peso e a obesidade são fatores de risco para um conjunto de doenças crónicas, diabetes, alguns tipos de cancro, entre outras. Muitos destes problemas de saúde advêm do consumo excessivo de alimentos menos saudáveis e de um consumo insuficiente de alimentos saudáveis. Para além do papel determinante da autorregulação, tem vindo a ser demonstrado que a justiça e o merecimento podem ser relevantes no estudo do consumo. Este trabalho tem como objetivos testar o efeito causal da exposição à injustiça no consumo de alimentos e o possível papel mediador da autorregulação nessa relação. Estudantes de licenciatura (N = 175; 89% mulheres; MIdade = 24.28, DP = 7.36) foram expostos aleatoriamente a um cenário justo ou injusta e, posteriormente, mediu-se a intenção de consumo de alimentos mais e menos saudáveis, bem como a autorregulação. Verificou-se que a intenção de consumo de alimentos menos saudáveis foi superior na condição injusta. O modelo de mediação revelou que a injustiça tem efeito na intenção de consumo de alimentos menos saudáveis por si só, enquanto que apenas teve efeito nos alimentos mais saudáveis através da autorregulação. Conclui-se que existiu uma relação causal entre injustiça e a intenção de consumo de alimentos através da autorregulação. Estes resultados são relevantes para a escassa investigação em justiça social e consumo, apoiam os profissionais de marketing na publicidade de alimentos e contribui para compreender outro fator na complexidade do processo de adoção de uma alimentação saudável. São ainda discutidas limitações e sugestões para estudos futuros.
Overweight and obesity are risk factors for a range of chronic diseases, diabetes, some types of cancer, among others. Many of these health problems come from excessive consumption of less healthy foods and insufficient consumption of healthy foods. In addition to the determining role of self-regulation, it has been shown that justice and deservingness may be a relevant factor in the study of consumption. This paper aims to test the causal effect of exposure to injustice in food consumption and the possible mediating role of self-regulation in this relation. Bachelor’s students (N = 175; 89% women; Mage = 24.28, SD = 7.36) were randomly exposed to a fair or unfair scenario, and after that was measured the intention to consume more and less healthy foods, as well as self-regulation. It was found that the intention to consume less healthy food was higher in the unfair condition. The mediation model revealed that injustice influenced the intention of consuming less healthy food on its own, while it only influenced healthier food through self-regulation. It is concluded that there was a causal relation between injustice and the intention of food consumption through self-regulation. These results are relevant to the scarce research into social justice and consumption, support marketeers in food advertising, and contribute to understanding another factor in the complexity of the process of adoption of healthy eating. Limitations and suggestions for future research are also discussed.

AbstractThis chapter takes as its starting point theorizing around nutrition and food system transitions thought to be increasingly occurring in urban Africa, and how this may be linked to a growing non-communicable disease burden. We focus specifically on the secondary city context by analysing household survey data gathered from six cities across Ghana, Kenya and Uganda during 2013–2015. We asked how diet composition and diversity, food sources and food security varied by socio-economic status, using expenditure and demographic data to create a proxy for household well-being. In this way, we investigate one of the claimed keystones affecting urban food systems and dietary health in sub-Saharan Africa—that of obesogenic urban food environments. Our findings indicate that the socio-economic status of a household was the most important factor influencing household dietary diversity and food security status, i.e. better-off households were more likely to feel food secure and eat from a greater variety of food groups. In addition, the number of income sources was additionally associated with higher dietary diversity. We also found that a household’s involvement in agriculture had only a small positive effect on food security in one city and was associated with a reduction in dietary diversity scores. Our findings emphasize the importance of supporting aggregated national and international statistics on agricultural production and trade with detailed local analyses that focus on actual household food access and consumption. We also see reasons to be cautious about making causal claims regarding consumption change and obesogenic urban environments as the major contributor to a rising obesity and non-communicable disease burden in Africa.

AbstractClimate change has the potential to disrupt sustainable development initiatives, particularly in developing economies. A substantial body of literature reveals that developing economies are vulnerable to climate change, due to high dependency on climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture. In Ghana, a growing body of literature has revealed multiple adaptation strategies adopted by smallholder farmers to respond to and reduce climate change impacts. However, there is a dearth of literature on the effectiveness of adaptation strategies. This chapter explores the adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers and analyzed the predictors of effective adaptation. Through the technique of simple random sampling, 378 smallholder farmers were selected, and data was collected using a questionnaire survey. Descriptive and inferential statistics were performed using the SPSS software. The findings indicate that smallholder farmers adopt multiple adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change. In addition, it is revealed that marital status, years of farming experience, knowledge of climate change, and education are significant predictors of adaptation. Moreover, the chapter found that marital status, weedicide application, change in staple food consumption, and planting of early-maturing crops are good predictors of effective adaptation. The chapter recommends the need to intensify adaptation strategies through agricultural extension programs and interventions that improve rural food security and livelihood. In addition, the chapter recommends strengthening the capacity of farmer organizations and rural institutions, particularly agricultural extension and advisory services.

AbstractClimate change has the potential to disrupt sustainable development initiatives, particularly in developing economies. A substantial body of literature reveals that developing economies are vulnerable to climate change, due to high dependency on climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture. In Ghana, a growing body of literature has revealed multiple adaptation strategies adopted by smallholder farmers to respond to and reduce climate change impacts. However, there is a dearth of literature on the effectiveness of adaptation strategies. This chapter explores the adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers and analyzed the predictors of effective adaptation. Through the technique of simple random sampling, 378 smallholder farmers were selected, and data was collected using a questionnaire survey. Descriptive and inferential statistics were performed using the SPSS software. The findings indicate that smallholder farmers adopt multiple adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change. In addition, it is revealed that marital status, years of farming experience, knowledge of climate change, and education are significant predictors of adaptation. Moreover, the chapter found that marital status, weedicide application, change in staple food consumption, and planting of early-maturing crops are good predictors of effective adaptation. The chapter recommends the need to intensify adaptation strategies through agricultural extension programs and interventions that improve rural food security and livelihood. In addition, the chapter recommends strengthening the capacity of farmer organizations and rural institutions, particularly agricultural extension and advisory services.

Abstract As is so often the case, an economist’s notion of preferences differs from common usage. In consumer theory, observed behaviour says as much about prices and access to resources as it does about preferences. This is not merely an academic quibble, although theorists debate whether tastes are fixed or not (Stigler and Becker 1977). Both the level and the trend of food consumption patterns in Egypt reflect the influence of government pricing policies as well as habits. Consequently, it is necessary to delve into such policies if one is interested in understanding current consumption, or in speculating on what may occur were changes in price policy to occur. This chapter, then, will begin with a section discussing statistics of average levels of food consumption with reference to changes in recent years. It will then devote attention to subsidy and distribution policies before concluding with a discussion of indicators of nutritional status.

This essay considers two texts that engage with common foodstuffs from markedly different perspectives: Friedrich Accum’s 1820 Treatise on Adulterations of Food and Culinary Poisons and William Cobbett’s 1821 Cottage Economy. It analyses the pivotal moment in nutrition and perceptions of eating and the wider social unrest that these texts engaged with at the beginning of the 1820s. Accum’s treatise was one of the first widely-read exposés of food adulteration, paving the way for public unrest surrounding consumption and new means of food production. Meanwhile, Cobbett’s text argues for a return to pastoral self-sufficiency as an act of resistance in the face of governmental control. Utilising an examination of the language used in Cottage Economy and Adulterations, as well as in contemporary reactions to them from newspapers and periodicals, the essay demonstrates that the public’s responses to these texts highlight some principal concerns of the age – both those encoded in food specifically and those that extended outwards from consumption, relating to areas such as political reform and poverty. Both texts play with nostalgia and fear, enlisting food as a vehicle through which to question the position of 1820s Britain in history.

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on agricultural production both locally and globally. High temperatures and irregular precipitation projected by the IPCC could lead to a decline in agricultural production, which would require significant changes in agricultural practices. A concomitant factor to climate change will be the increase in population and its distribution and level of consumption, which also influences agricultural production strategies, the conversion of agricultural land, and the type of irrigation. Determining the impacts of these forcings on land use will depend on our understanding of past changes in the agricultural sector (cereal) and how future climate change will occur. It is proposed to develop an innovative methodology that will integrate agricultural production, socio-economic statistics, demographic trends, and patterns of agricultural land use caused by climate change and human development.

Currently the world is facing a viral contingency that has exposed the vulnerability in which the human being is in the face of the alarming statistics of obesity at all ages, increasing the numbers of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer mainly. But not only health has suffered a deterioration worldwide but also the environment with impacts on the availability and quality of water, air pollution and soil deterioration. In México, the food culture has undergone changes derived from greater accessibility to industrialized foods, less physical activity, stress, replacement of consumption and the use of local foods. Currently in Mexico actions are being implemented to rescue agroecology, gastronomy, and food culture. Therefore, this chapter will have the purpose of integrating a historical, ecological and health impacts analysis with what food means and its source or origin for people.

Vegetable growing is one of the most intensive branches of agriculture, which is characterized by a high level of consumption of inputs, primarily fertilizers and pesticides. However, vegetable production can also be successfully achieved with reduced use of agrochemicals, actually in a more ecologically acceptable way. The aim of this paper was to examine the attitudes of vegetable producers in the area of eight local government units about ecologically acceptable cultivation practices for these crops. For the purpose of the research, one hundred and sixty vegetable producers were surveyed by questionnaire, and the collected data were processed in the SPSS statistical package, using the descriptive statistics method. The results showed that for 66% of farmers the priority in production is controlled and reduced application of agrochemicals in relation to high yield of vegetables, and also even 90% of producers are ready to shift from conventional to the ecologically acceptable production of vegetables, with the condition of certain benefits, meaning greater incentives for that kind of production. On the other side, direct payments and rural development measures are used by about 60% of surveyed, which may indicate that for expanding the concept of ecologically acceptable production, encompassing greater incentives from the national level, it is necessary to improve knowledge of this concept of production, as well as better applying of existing incentives.

In the modern world, sustainable consumption is developing as one of the most influential areas in economic theory and practice. The concept of sustainability is gaining particular importance for economies and their future development. In sustainability research, the focus on food consumption, and specifically fruit consumption, is a relatively new approach. The main objective of the present study is to systematize and interpret the basic determinants of the behavior of consumers of food products, as well as of fruits, through the focus of the fundamental principle of sustainability and on this basis to deduce the manifesting dependencies. To clarify the determinants, it helps to consider various economic concepts - Engel's, Keynesian theory and other empirical works in the studied subject. Respondents of the study are households from Bulgaria. The analysis of fruit consumption in the context of sustainability is based on data on the budgets of Bulgarian households in the period 2009-2021, released by the National Statistical Institute. The specified twelve-year period ensures the tracking of the dynamics and trends in the studied economic phenomenon. The formulated hypothesis is tested using the method of linear regression and correlation using the statistical software - IBM SPSS Statistics. The results help reveal the relationships between household fruit expenditure and their income as economic determinants. On the basis of the obtained results, the importance of the change to sustainable patterns of consumption, specifically of fruits, for the economic well-being of households and for the future development of the economy is assessed.

The aim of the article is to assess the dynamics of the development of biofuels production from agricultural raw materials and the share of biofuels in the consumption of the most important agricultural raw materials with particular regard to the situation in Poland. Data used in the study are derived from OECD statistics as well as CSO statistics. The analysis covered the period from 2005 to 2016. The biofuel production on a global scale is increasingly competing with food production. Between 2002 and 2004, about 2% of harvested cereals were allocated to biofuels, and in 2016 it was almost 8%. For oil plants, this level reached 15%. Following a dynamic growth in biofuel production between 2005 and 2010, the growth slowed down considerably - to the level of 7% annually for biodiesel and 4.6% annually for bioethanol production. For the years 2017-2025, a growth rate of about 1% per year is anticipated. The slowdown in production growth is due to the reduction of political support for the development of the production of biofuels from first generation raw materials. Their production leads to competition for land resources with food production, but it has also been found to be characterized by relatively low environmental performance, including a low impact on the reduction of CO2 emissions. It is necessary to develop the production of second generation biofuels which now account for only about 7% of the production of liquid biofuels. Biofuels in Poland are produced from cereals and rapeseed oil. The production of biofuels in Poland increased from 180 million litres in 2005 to 1.2 billion litres in 2015. 1.3% of arable land was used for bioethanol production and 3.5% for biodiesel production. Total production of raw materials for biofuels was conducted on 5% of arable land in Poland. 2% of cereals and 60% of the rape crop were consumed for the production of biofuels. Under Polish agriculture conditions, biofuels production does not compete with food production yet.

Kenya is grappling with many public health problems; one of the most critical is childhood malnutrition. Underweight rates are 11%, stunting at 26%, and wasting at 4%. In Obunga slums, stunting was 40.2% for children below sixty months, underweight at 10.2%, and wasting at 9%. Globally, children between 6-24 months have the highest contribution to malnutrition among under-fives. Nevertheless, after 24 months, stunting, an indicator of chronic malnutrition, is irreversible. Obunga slums, compared to other slums in Kenya, registered the highest levels of stunting at 40.5%, despite various interventions. Some of the risk factors that recurrently exist as determinants of nutritional status in urban slums are socio-demographic factors. Other potential factors which seem to be ignored are the food systems-related socio-demographics, which seem to be in constant aetiology. This study determined the relationship between food systems, socio-demographic factors, and the nutritional status of children between 6-24 months. Specifically, to assess the nutritional status and determine the relationship between the community food system and nutritional status. A cross-sectional design was adopted, and households with a child aged 6-24 months in Obunga slums were included. A sample of 189 children was selected through a simple random sampling technique. A questionnaire was used to collect data on community food systems. The anthropometric assessment was used to collect data on the nutritional status of the children. Data analysis was done through descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression. The results reveal that the study had 189 children, 108 males and 81 females. Prevalence of wasting was at 3.2%, overweight at 6.9%, stunting at 27.0%, and underweight at 7.4%. Community Food Systems; wasting was associated with the frequency of buying foods from hotels/restaurants (O.R. = 0.32, C.I. =0.219 – 0.934) and consumption of food from restaurants and hotels (A.O.R = 14.522, C.I. =1.390 -151.712). Stunting was associated with purchasing food from restaurants/hotels (O.R. 0.0134, C.I. =0.020 -0.904. This study enumerated insight that may allow appropriate intervention programs to help align community food systems and mitigate child malnutrition in Obunga slums and other urban slums. Keywords: Community Food Systems, Nutritional Status, Urban Slums, Stunting

The dairy industry is one of the important branches of the agri-food sector. This branch aims to provide the population with safe, harmless and high quality dairy products. However, the dairy industry has declined steadily in recent decades. Official statistics for the last 10 years show a significant decrease in milk production: from 575 thousand tons in 2009 to 367 thousand tons in 2019 (-38%). During the same period, milk imports rose by 405%. On the other hand, dairy exports have decreased significantly in the last 4 years - by about 17%. Currently, the range of dairy products is very varied and mostly corresponds to the needs of the population. According to statistical information, at present, the dairy industry in the Republic of Moldova is represented by over 20 units for the industrialization of milk and dairy products, located in all geographical areas of the country. The aim of the paper is: studying of the current situation regarding the production, trade and conformity of dairy products. The research is performed using the methods: comparative analysis, expertise, etc. So this paper contains the results of production, consumption, trade and compliance of dairy products, as well as organoleptic, physico-chemical and microbiological research on the quality of domestic and imported whole milk (6 varieties). The research was conducted based on sensory and laboratory methods accepted in commodity science. The research results show that only 3 products out of 6 fully meet the prescribed requirements. The winner products of this competition are: Seven Mountains, Zuzu and Agronatura SRL. We also studied consumers' preferences through the sensory analysis of whole milk (20 points)."Zuzu" and "Seven Mountains" milks - products imported from Romania have accumulated the maximum score. In addition, we checked the correctness of the mandatory information presented on the product labels. In this respect, all 6 analyzed products correspond to the requirements of Law 279 on consumer information on food.

The relevance of the topic is due to the fact that the problem of the quality of life occupies an important place in the documents that determine the medium and long-term prospects for the development of the Republic of Moldova. The adopted National Development Strategy „European Moldova-2030” (LEGE, 2022) sets strategic goals arising from the modern concept of quality of life. In this context, the problem of the quality of life of rural residents, whose number makes up more than half of the total population, and whose level and conditions of life are significantly inferior to the national average, is of particular importance. The purpose of the study is to assess the quality of life of the rural population and, on this basis, to identify the most acute problems in this area. The following research methods were used: analysis and synthesis, monographic, statistical, comparison, analogues, etc. The information base of the study is the data from the household budget survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics, as well as materials from domestic and international organizations. Results of the study - the assessment of the quality of life of the rural population of the Republic of Moldova was carried out according to the following parameters: disposable income, consumer spending, absolute poverty, demographic situation, food consumption, access to quality education, health status, living comfort, self-assessment of their standard of living. The most acute problems of the quality of life of the rural population of the Republic of Moldova have been identified. Научная статья подготовлена и профинансирована в рамках проекта Государственной программы (2020-2023 г.г.), зарегистрированной в Государственном реестре проектов в области науки и инноваций Республики Молдова 20.80009.0807.29 ”Perfecționarea mecanismelor de aplicare a instrumentelor inovaționale orientate spre creșterea durabilă a bunăstării populației Republicii Moldova”.

Around one third of the weight of food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted, and around a third of crop calories are lost to the food system during livestock production. Meanwhile, the global food system causes significant environmental impacts and around 800 million people are undernourished. This building block examines the following aspects of food loss and waste: mainstream definitions and alternative understandings, global statistics, and ‘hierarchies’ for prevention and treatment.

This human campylobacteriosis sentinel surveillance project was based at two sites in Oxfordshire and North East England chosen (i) to be representative of the English population on the Office for National Statistics urban-rural classification and (ii) to provide continuity with genetic surveillance started in Oxfordshire in October 2003. Between October 2015 and September 2018 epidemiological questionnaires and genome sequencing of isolates from human cases was accompanied by sampling and genome sequencing of isolates from possible food animal sources. The principal aim was to estimate the contributions of the main sources of human infection and to identify any changes over time. An extension to the project focussed on antimicrobial resistance in study isolates and older archived isolates. These older isolates were from earlier years at the Oxfordshire site and the earliest available coherent set of isolates from the national archive at Public Health England (1997/8). The aim of this additional work was to analyse the emergence of the antimicrobial resistance that is now present among human isolates and to describe and compare antimicrobial resistance in recent food animal isolates. Having identified the presence of bias in population genetic attribution, and that this was not addressed in the published literature, this study developed an approach to adjust for bias in population genetic attribution, and an alternative approach to attribution using sentinel types. Using these approaches the study estimated that approximately 70% of Campylobacter jejuni and just under 50% of C. coli infection in our sample was linked to the chicken source and that this was relatively stable over time. Ruminants were identified as the second most common source for C. jejuni and the most common for C. coli where there was also some evidence for pig as a source although less common than ruminant or chicken. These genomic attributions of themselves make no inference on routes of transmission. However, those infected with isolates genetically typical of chicken origin were substantially more likely to have eaten chicken than those infected with ruminant types. Consumption of lamb’s liver was very strongly associated with infection by a strain genetically typical of a ruminant source. These findings support consumption of these foods as being important in the transmission of these infections and highlight a potentially important role for lamb’s liver consumption as a source of Campylobacter infection. Antimicrobial resistance was predicted from genomic data using a pipeline validated by Public Health England and using BIGSdb software. In C. jejuni this showed a nine-fold increase in resistance to fluoroquinolones from 1997 to 2018. Tetracycline resistance was also common, with higher initial resistance (1997) and less substantial change over time. Resistance to aminoglycosides or macrolides remained low in human cases across all time periods. Among C. jejuni food animal isolates, fluoroquinolone resistance was common among isolates from chicken and substantially less common among ruminants, ducks or pigs. Tetracycline resistance was common across chicken, duck and pig but lower among ruminant origin isolates. In C. coli resistance to all four antimicrobial classes rose from low levels in 1997. The fluoroquinolone rise appears to have levelled off earlier and among animals, levels are high in duck as well as chicken isolates, although based on small sample sizes, macrolide and aminoglycoside resistance, was substantially higher than for C. jejuni among humans and highest among pig origin isolates. Tetracycline resistance is high in isolates from pigs and the very small sample from ducks. Antibiotic use following diagnosis was relatively high (43.4%) among respondents in the human surveillance study. Moreover, it varied substantially across sites and was highest among non-elderly adults compared to older adults or children suggesting opportunities for improved antimicrobial stewardship. The study also found evidence for stable lineages over time across human and source animal species as well as some tighter genomic clusters that may represent outbreaks. The genomic dataset will allow extensive further work beyond the specific goals of the study. This has been made accessible on the web, with access supported by data visualisation tools.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.