Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Financial markets – European Union countries »

Stock market comovements between developed (represented in the article by markets of Austria, France, Germany, and the UK) and developing stock markets (represented here by three Central and Eastern European (CEE) markets of Slovenia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) are of great importance for the financial decisions of international investors. From the point of view of portfolio diversification, short-term investors are more interested in the comovements of stock returns at higher frequencies (short-term movements), while long-term investors focus on lower frequencies comovements. As such, one has to resort to a time-frequency domain analysis to obtain insight about comovements at the particular time-frequency (scale) level. The empirical literature on the CEE and developed stock markets interdependence predominantly apply simple (Pearsons) correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, cointegration analysis, and GARCH modeling. None of the existent empirical studies examine time-scale comovements between CEE and developed stock market returns. By applying a maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform correlation estimator and a running correlation technique, we investigated the dynamics of stock market return comovements between individual Central and Eastern European countries and developed European stock markets in the period from 1997-2010. By analyzing the time-varying dynamics of stock market comovements on a scale-by-scale basis, we also examined how major events (financial crises in the investigated time period and entrance to the European Union) affected the comovement of CEE stock markets with developed European stock markets. The results of the unconditional correlation analysis show that the developed European stock markets of France, the UK, Germany and Austria were more interdependent in the observed period than the CEEs stock markets. The later group of countries exhibited a lower degree of comovement between themselves as well as with the developed European stock markets during all the observed time period. The Slovenian stock market was the least correlated with other stock markets. By using the rolling wavelet correlation technique, we wanted to answer the question as to how the correlation between CEE and developed stock markets changed over the observed period. In particular, we wanted to examine whether major economic (financial) and political events in the world and European economies (the Russian financial crisis, the dot-com financial crisis, the attack on the WTC, the CEE countries joining the European union, and the recent global financial crisis) have influenced the dynamics of CEE stock market comovements with developed European stock markets. The results show that stock market return comovements between CEE and developed European stock markets varied over time scales and time. At all scales and during the entire observed time period the Hungarian and Czech stock markets were more interconnected to developed European stock markets than the Slovenian stock market was. The highest comovement between the investigated CEE and developed European stock market returns was normally observed at the highest scales (scale 5, corresponding to stock market return dynamics over 32-64 days, and scale 6, corresponding to stock market return dynamics over 32-64 and 64-128 days). At all scales the Hungarian and Czech stock markets were more connected to developed European stock markets than the Slovenian stock market. We found that European integration lead to increased comovement between CEE and developed stock markets, while the financial crises in the observed period led only to short-term increases in stock market return comovements.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.23.1.1221

This study aims to measure the institutional features of residential mortgage markets in the European Union (EU) countries. The institutional features of the mortgage markets include access to credit information, protection of creditor rights, and enforcement of contracts among others, and attributes that define the evolution and functioning of mortgage markets. Differences among these features lead to institutional variations in mortgage markets among countries. In this study, we measure the institutional features along four dimensions (financial, legal, openness and cultural), and compare them to a benchmark. To achieve this, composite indices (overall index and its sub-indices) are developed with the use of a factor analysis. The findings show that the institutional features of the EU mortgage markets are diverse; northern European countries and the United Kingdom (UK) take the lead with respect to the institutional environment of their mortgage markets and have markets with higher institutional quality than the others. That is, these countries have mortgage markets with a more efficient legal framework, more government transparency in policymaking, easier access to financial services and credit information, etc.

AbstractIn this article, stability of fiscal policy and its impact on fiscal market have been analyzed. The issue appears especially important in times of the financial crisis which has affected all the European Union countries, although to a different extent. To achieve this, the author presented the aims, the tools and the aspects of financial stability to confront them with the situation that has occurred in the EU countries. To present the issue profoundly, the scientific research related to fiscal policy and its impact on financial markets were used in two opening units. In the third unit, the statistic data was cited to show the condition of the EU countries, the changes to it and the attempts aimed at improving the state of the public finance and therefore stabilizing financial markets.

AbstractThis study compares the development of insurance markets in countries such as Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain to mature markets in countries such as the UK and Germany during the 2007 financial crisis. Markets are examined from the product innovation perspective. The market in a country is assessed using taxonomic measures, such as distance and similarity. Markets are described by a set of features divided into five groups: market structure, technical sphere, finance and investment, effectiveness, and product. The measures are calculated at two points in time, 1997 and 2010. The data were gathered from publications of the World Bank, European Union Commission (statistics offices), National Polish Bank and insurance associations. The financial crisis has slowed the speed of market development and influenced other spheres. In countries like Greece and Portugal, progress was even slower than in post-Soviet states, like Poland. The crisis has not imposed structural changes within the selected markets and the influence of the crisis is visible. The sectors were not very innovative, particularly in the product sphere. The literature on the influence of the crisis on insurance is contradictory. This study’s novelty is that it applies multidimensional analysis when comparing insurance-market innovativeness and development.

Purpose The purpose of this study is to modify the gravity model to identify the main determinants of the European Union (EU) bank lending to the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries during 1994-2012. Design/methodology/approach This study uses both two-stage least squares and dynamic generalized method of moments to estimate the modified gravity model. Findings This study finds that the CEE countries with more developed stock markets have received the higher EU bank lending inflows. The EU banks have greater access to additional financing in the stock markets. Second, the higher stock market difference between the CEE and EU countries has boosted the EU bank lending. Compared to the developed EU stock markets, the less developed CEE stock markets have become more favorable to the EU banks seeking to earn higher profits. Research limitations/implications The CEE countries can further boost the EU bank lending inflows through deepening capital liberalization. They should facilitate easy foreign bank entry by reducing excessive bank legislations and regulations. Moreover, they can promote the EU bank lending through substantial EU bank integration. This can accelerate the major bank reform which would facilitate better bank supervision and regulations. Originality/value Most previous studies have primarily used the macroeconomic and institutional factors to explain the EU bank lending. In contrast, this study explores the growing importance of the CEE financial development and bilateral trade in explaining the EU bank lending.

This paper analyses the link between exchange rates and stock markets in four Central and Eastern European countries. We simultaneously explore the comovements of foreign exchange markets and stock markets at the cross-country level and the link between these two markets within each country while employing a Dynamic Conditional Correlation Mixed Data Sampling (DCC-MIDAS) model. Such an approach to financial markets conveys a much more visible picture of the existing patterns of financial integration between these markets that would otherwise be neglected. The estimates reveal significant differences between the patterns of correlation in our sample countries. First, the paper finds a quite low degree of convergence between foreign exchange markets, with rising correlations during some of the crisis episodes. Second, both the 2004 European Union enlargement and the European sovereign debt crisis underpin the stock market comovements in the Central and Eastern European countries. Third, the correlations between the exchange rate returns and stock markets rise mostly during the European sovereign debt crisis and to a lesser extent during the global financial crisis, revealing signs of contagion and lower portfolio diversification opportunities. These results are of utmost relevance for the process of financial integration and they also have important implications for policy makers, risk management, and investors.

In the early nineties, parallel to the increasing integration processes of the European Union, realized through the formation of a uniform common internal market and the conclusion of the treaty of Maastricht of the formation of the European Union, systemic reforms were also taking place in Poland and the other countries of Middle-East Europe. Their substance was transformation of the economies - which up to the present were guided centrally - into market economies. At the same time Poland and the other countries of Middle-East Europe made efforts to come into closer economic cooperation with European Union. An important role in speeding up the economic growth of Poland and the other countries of Middle-East Europe, besides internal financial means, play such sources as external financing, in the form of profitable credits, and also the opening of ready markets.

In 2015, the European Commission (EC) launched its action plan for the creation of a European Capital Markets Union. The EC aims to return the European economy to sustainable growth and to enhance its shock-absorbing capacity by reducing the reliance on bank finance and stimulating financial deepening and cross-border integration of Europe’s capital markets. Financial diversification and integrated European capital markets are expected to improve risk sharing among households, supporting economic stability. However, the economic literature reveals a lack of theoretical and empirical consensus on the superiority of either a bank-based or a market-based financial system in promoting growth or reducing macroeconomic volatility. This article is the first to include bond markets in its financial structure indicators, besides stock markets and bank lending. Using panel data on 55 countries between 1975 and 2014 and three different measures of financial structure, we investigate the effect of the structure of the financial system on the volatility of output and investment growth as well as their cyclical components. We do not find evidence that market-based financial structures dampen volatility of output or overall investment. Increase of the stock market size relative to that of the banking sector has a significant positive effect on the business cycle volatility of investments.

Public financial markets are crucial in the access to the funding and as a platform for investments to the investors in today’s world. Nordic European Union countries such as Sweden, Finland and Denmark are considered to have advanced and well-developed stock markets, while neighboring three Baltic States have rather small stock market. Backbone of the stock market are there listed companies. In this analysis authors attempt to analyze 510 Nordic countries listed companies’ absolute value indicators using factor and cluster analysis and to compare results with similar analysis of the Baltic States. Factor and cluster analysis revealed the homogeneity of Nordic countries stock market listed companies’ absolute values, authors obtained three complex factors, explaining 89% of dispersion within the indicators, which in turn resulted in being able to obtain the portrait of Nordic States stock market listed company. Similar results were obtained for Baltic States listed companies, though on different scale. Authors have not seen as detailed analysis of Nordic Stock market on the level of listed companies financial statement analysis. Time period covered in this research of the financials are from 2004 to 2018. The analysis could be beneficial for other researchers focusing on the Nordic region stock market companies and also to the policy makers in the Baltic States, how the neighboring well-developed countries indicators could be interpreted and obtained results used for the enhancement of Baltic States stock market. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2020-01244 Full Text: PDF

Abstract As the economy develops, self-financed capital investments are less frequent, being replaced by financing through banking intermediation and later through capital markets. The development of financial systems has a positive effect on the mobilization of resources, improving corporate governance and risk management, leading to economic growth. The preponderance of previous research papers shows a positive relationship between financial development and economic growth. Studies using cross-sectional methodologies discover almost unanimously a positive link between financial development and economic growth, while studies with methodologies based on time series, panel data or case studies reach different conclusions depending on the period considered, the countries’ initial level of development and the structure of the financial systems. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of financial systems on economic growth using panel regressions based on annual data regarding measures of financial development for the member countries of the European Union, for the period 1990-2020. The findings show that the development of the financial systems, through the activity of banks and capital markets, has a positive effect on the allocation of resources, the mobilization of savings and the efficient management of risks, leading in turn to economic growth if there is a correlation between the funds invested and the output of the real sector. The paper’s contribution to the field refers to the study of the long-term relations between the financial systems and the economic growth using data for all European Union countries, the findings helping to formulate public policies.

Defence date: 11 September 2020 (Online)
Examining Board: Professor Stefan Grundmann (EUI, Supervisor); Professor Mathias Siems (EUI); Professor Nicoletta Rangone (LUMSA University); Professor Danny Busch (Radbound University)
The thesis examines whether the existing European retail investor protection legislation can be interpreted to be taking into account behavioural heuristics, biases, and norms that the average individual exhibits in their decision-making. In doing so, the thesis observes a clear general shift towards behaviourism in the interventions underpinning the retail investor legislation. The thesis aids this behavioural turn in investor protection legislation by compiling insights from studies on effective behavioural change interventions that can render behavioural investor protection more effective in influencing behaviour. The underlying argument is that the more effective the interventions the legislation incorporates for influencing behaviour, the more likely it is that such behaviourally-informed legislation can be effective in attracting more median retail consumer participation in the financial markets, helping in turn to mobilise retail investors’ cash savings into financial assets in Europe in light of the Capital Markets Union. The thesis concludes that this observed shift towards behaviourally-informed retail investor protection regulation is conducive to a functional, market-building, perspective in investor protection regulation. This is because market-building and market efficiency are not just pursued from the trust-conferring function of investor protection regulation, but also from a directly behavioural perspective, through nudging, biasing, and de-biasing. Thus, the thesis argues that in the behavioural turn of investor protection regulation the three main theoretical foundations for regulating for investor protection cited in the literature, namely: appeal to fairness; the pursuit of efficiency; and the acknowledgement of cognitive errors and limitations, are not only interlinked as the literature holds, but they also follow a hierarchical ordering with appeal to fairness and acknowledgement of cognitive limitations being functions of the pursuit of efficiency rather than self-standing foundations for regulating for investor protection. Such prioritization of market efficiency can potentially carry dangerous implications in the absence of a thoughtful moral examination.

This dissertation examines the interaction between European Emerging markets including cointegration, volatility, correlation and spillover effects. This study is also concerned with the process of the enlargement of the European Union and how this affects the emerging markets of newcomers. The twelve emerging markets studied are Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungry, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, which are all progressing very rapidly in their reforms and domestic economic stability. The majority of prior studies on stock market comovements and integration have concentrated on mature developed markets or the advanced emerging markets of the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland whilst the behaviour and interrelationship of other Central and Eastern European equity markets has been neglected. This study fills that gap. There are two key aspects investigated in this study. Firstly the cointegration between studied emerging markets and secondly the volatility and spillover effects. The cointegration analysis examines the short and long run behaviour of the twelve emerging stock markets and assesses the impact of the EU on stock market linkages as revealed by the time series behaviour of their stock market indices. The adopted time- series framework incorporates the Johansen procedure, Granger Causality tests, Variance Decompositions and Impulse Response analyses. The cointegration results for both pre- and post- EU periods confirm the existence of long run relationships between markets. Granger Causality relationships are indentified among the most advanced emerging markets. The Variance Decomposition analyses find evidence of regional integration amongst the markets. Furthermore, the Impulse Response function illustrates that the shocks in returns for all twelve markets persist for very short time periods. The volatility and spillover analysis applies several univariate models of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, including GARCH, GJR and EGARCH. The models used in the analysis of cross market effects include CCC, diagonal BEKK, VARMA GARCH and VARMA AGARCH. Overall, the econometric analysis using these models shows stock market integration during the pre-EU period, however interdependence of the markets is established for the post-EU period. The results provide important information on the impact of the accession of new countries to the EU, with clear evidence of stability in Central and Eastern Europe markets and integration within the region. This study has important implications for investors wishing to diversify across national markets, such as the implications of growing asset correlations, if they are displayed, and whether investors should diversify outside the Central and Eastern European countries. It could be argued that the former Eastern block economies constitute emerging markets which typically offer attractive risk adjusted returns for international investors. Moreover, stock market comovement is of considerable interest to policy makers from a perspective of the effects on the macroeconomy, the planning of monetary policy and impact of the degree of stock market comovements on the stability of international monetary policy.

Over the last years, the growing availability of large datasets and the improvements in the computational speed of computers have further fostered the research in the fields of both macroeconomic modeling and forecasting analysis. A primary focus of these research areas is to improve the models performance by exploiting the informational content of several time series. Increasing the dimension of macro models is indeed crucial for a detailed structural understanding of the economic environment, as well as for an accurate forecasting analysis. As consequence, a new generation of large-scale macro models, based on the micro-foundations of a fully specified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium set-up, has became one of the most flourishing research areas of interest both in central banks and academia. At the same time, there has been a revival of forecasting methods dealing with many predictors, such as the factor models. The central idea of factor models is to exploit co-movements among variables through a parsimonious econometric structure. Few underlying common shocks or factors explain most of the co-variations among variables. The unexplained component of series movements is on the other hand due to pure idiosyncratic dynamics. The generality of their framework allows factor models to be suitable for describing a broad variety of models in a macroeconomic and a financial context. The revival of factor models, over the recent years, comes from important developments achieved by Stock and Watson (2002) and Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2000). These authors find the conditions under which some data averages become collinear to the space spanned by the factors when, the cross section dimension, becomes large. Moreover, their factor specifications allow the idiosyncratic dynamics to be mildly cross-correlated (an effect referred to as the 'approximate factor structure' by Chamberlain and Rothschild, 1983), a situation empirically verified in many applications. These findings have relevant implications. The most important being that the use of a large number of series is no longer representative of a dimensional constraint. On the other hand, it does help to identify the factor space. This new generation of factor models has been applied in several areas of macroeconomics and finance as well as for policy evaluation. It is consequently very likely to become a milestone in the literature of forecasting methods using many predictors. This thesis contributes to the empirical literature on factor models by proposing four original applications.

In the first chapter of this thesis, the generalized dynamic factor model of Forni et. al (2002) is employed to explore the predictive content of the asset returns in forecasting Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and the growth rate of Industrial Production (IP). The connection between stock markets and economic growth is well known. In the fundamental valuation of equity, the stock price is equal to the discounted future streams of expected dividends. Since the future dividends are related to future growth, a revision of prices, and hence returns, should signal movements in the future growth path. Though other important transmission channels, such as the Tobin's q theory (Tobin, 1969), the wealth effect as well as capital market imperfections, have been widely studied in this literature. I show that an aggregate index, such as the S&P500, could be misleading if used as a proxy for the informative content of the stock market as a whole. Despite the widespread wisdom of considering such index as a leading variable, only part of the assets included in the composition of the index has a leading behaviour with respect to the variables of interest. Its forecasting performance might be poor, leading to sceptical conclusions about the effectiveness of asset prices in forecasting macroeconomic variables. The main idea of the first essay is therefore to analyze the lead-lag structure of the assets composing the S&P500. The classification in leading, lagging and coincident variables is achieved by means of the cross correlation function cleaned of idiosyncratic noise and short run fluctuations. I assume that asset returns follow a factor structure. That is, they are the sum of two parts: a common part driven by few shocks common to all the assets and an idiosyncratic part, which is rather asset specific. The correlation

function, computed on the common part of the series, is not affected by the assets' specific dynamics and should provide information only on the series driven by the same common factors. Once the leading series are identified, they are grouped within the economic sector they belong to. The predictive content that such aggregates have in forecasting IP growth and CPI inflation is then explored and compared with the forecasting power of the S&P500 composite index. The forecasting exercise is addressed in the following way: first, in an autoregressive (AR) model I choose the truncation lag that minimizes the Mean Square Forecast Error (MSFE) in 11 years out of sample simulations for 1, 6 and 12 steps ahead, both for the IP growth rate and the CPI inflation. Second, the S&P500 is added as an explanatory variable to the previous AR specification. I repeat the simulation exercise and find that there are very small improvements of the MSFE statistics. Third, averages of stock return leading series, in the respective sector, are added as additional explanatory variables in the benchmark regression. Remarkable improvements are achieved with respect to the benchmark specification especially for one year horizon forecast. Significant improvements are also achieved for the shorter forecast horizons, when the leading series of the technology and energy sectors are used.

The second chapter of this thesis disentangles the sources of aggregate risk and measures the extent of co-movements in five European stock markets. Based on the static factor model of Stock and Watson (2002), it proposes a new method for measuring the impact of international, national and industry-specific shocks. The process of European economic and monetary integration with the advent of the EMU has been a central issue for investors and policy makers. During these years, the number of studies on the integration and linkages among European stock markets has increased enormously. Given their forward looking nature, stock prices are considered a key variable to use for establishing the developments in the economic and financial markets. Therefore, measuring the extent of co-movements between European stock markets has became, especially over the last years, one of the main concerns both for policy makers, who want to best shape their policy responses, and for investors who need to adapt their hedging strategies to the new political and economic environment. An optimal portfolio allocation strategy is based on a timely identification of the factors affecting asset returns. So far, literature dating back to Solnik (1974) identifies national factors as the main contributors to the co-variations among stock returns, with the industry factors playing a marginal role. The increasing financial and economic integration over the past years, fostered by the decline of trade barriers and a greater policy coordination, should have strongly reduced the importance of national factors and increased the importance of global determinants, such as industry determinants. However, somehow puzzling, recent studies demonstrated that countries sources are still very important and generally more important of the industry ones. This paper tries to cast some light on these conflicting results. The chapter proposes an econometric estimation strategy more flexible and suitable to disentangle and measure the impact of global and country factors. Results point to a declining influence of national determinants and to an increasing influence of the industries ones. The international influences remains the most important driving forces of excess returns. These findings overturn the results in the literature and have important implications for strategic portfolio allocation policies; they need to be revisited and adapted to the changed financial and economic scenario.

The third chapter presents a new stylized fact which can be helpful for discriminating among alternative explanations of the U.S. macroeconomic stability. The main finding is that the fall in time series volatility is associated with a sizable decline, of the order of 30% on average, in the predictive accuracy of several widely used forecasting models, included the factor models proposed by Stock and Watson (2002). This pattern is not limited to the measures of inflation but also extends to several indicators of real economic activity and interest rates. The generalized fall in predictive ability after the mid-1980s is particularly pronounced for forecast horizons beyond one quarter. Furthermore, this empirical regularity is not simply specific to a single method, rather it is a common feature of all models including those used by public and private institutions. In particular, the forecasts for output and inflation of the Fed's Green book and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) are significantly more accurate than a random walk only before 1985. After this date, in contrast, the hypothesis of equal predictive ability between naive random walk forecasts and the predictions of those institutions is not rejected for all horizons, the only exception being the current quarter. The results of this chapter may also be of interest for the empirical literature on asymmetric information. Romer and Romer (2000), for instance, consider a sample ending in the early 1990s and find that the Fed produced more accurate forecasts of inflation and output compared to several commercial providers. The results imply that the informational advantage of the Fed and those private forecasters is in fact limited to the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. In contrast, during the last two decades no forecasting model is better than "tossing a coin" beyond the first quarter horizon, thereby implying that on average uninformed economic agents can effectively anticipate future macroeconomics developments. On the other hand, econometric models and economists' judgement are quite helpful for the forecasts over the very short horizon, that is relevant for conjunctural analysis. Moreover, the literature on forecasting methods, recently surveyed by Stock and Watson (2005), has devoted a great deal of attention towards identifying the best model for predicting inflation and output. The majority of studies however are based on full-sample periods. The main findings in the chapter reveal that most of the full sample predictability of U.S. macroeconomic series arises from the years before 1985. Long time series appear

to attach a far larger weight on the earlier sub-sample, which is characterized by a larger volatility of inflation and output. Results also suggest that some caution should be used in evaluating the performance of alternative forecasting models on the basis of a pool of different sub-periods as full sample analysis are likely to miss parameter instability.

The fourth chapter performs a detailed forecast comparison between the static factor model of Stock and Watson (2002) (SW) and the dynamic factor model of Forni et. al. (2005) (FHLR). It is not the first work in performing such an evaluation. Boivin and Ng (2005) focus on a very similar problem, while Stock and Watson (2005) compare the performances of a larger class of predictors. The SW and FHLR methods essentially differ in the computation of the forecast of the common component. In particular, they differ in the estimation of the factor space and in the way projections onto this space are performed. In SW, the factors are estimated by static Principal Components (PC) of the sample covariance matrix and the forecast of the common component is simply the projection of the predicted variable on the factors. FHLR propose efficiency improvements in two directions. First, they estimate the common factors based on Generalized Principal Components (GPC) in which observations are weighted according to their signal to noise ratio. Second, they impose the constraints implied by the dynamic factors structure when the variables of interest are projected on the common factors. Specifically, they take into account the leading and lagging relations across series by means of principal components in the frequency domain. This allows for an efficient aggregation of variables that may be out of phase. Whether these efficiency improvements are helpful to forecast in a finite sample is however an empirical question. Literature has not yet reached a consensus. On the one hand, Stock and Watson (2005) show that both methods perform similarly (although they focus on the weighting of the idiosyncratic and not on the dynamic restrictions), while Boivin and Ng (2005) show that SW's method largely outperforms the FHLR's and, in particular, conjecture that the dynamic restrictions implied by the method are harmful for the forecast accuracy of the model. This chapter tries to shed some new light on these conflicting results. It

focuses on the Industrial Production index (IP) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and bases the evaluation on a simulated out-of sample forecasting exercise. The data set, borrowed from Stock and Watson (2002), consists of 146 monthly observations for the US economy. The data spans from 1959 to 1999. In order to isolate and evaluate specific characteristics of the methods, a procedure, where the

two non-parametric approaches are nested in a common framework, is designed. In addition, for both versions of the factor model forecasts, the chapter studies the contribution of the idiosyncratic component to the forecast. Other non-core aspects of the model are also investigated: robustness with respect to the choice of the number of factors and variable transformations. Finally, the chapter performs a sub-sample performances of the factor based forecasts. The purpose of this exercise is to design an experiment for assessing the contribution of the core characteristics of different models to the forecasting performance and discussing auxiliary issues. Hopefully this may also serve as a guide for practitioners in the field. As in Stock and Watson (2005), results show that efficiency improvements due to the weighting of the idiosyncratic components do not lead to significant more accurate forecasts, but, in contrast to Boivin and Ng (2005), it is shown that the dynamic restrictions imposed by the procedure of Forni et al. (2005) are not harmful for predictability. The main conclusion is that the two methods have a similar performance and produce highly collinear forecasts.

Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

The objective of the study is to analyze the effects of two breakpoints on the relationships of Istanbul Stock Exchange with the European stock markets and on the relationships among these European stock markets to increase the economic integration. The breakpoints are the execution of the Customs Union Agreement of Turkey with the European Union in 1/1/1996 and the introduction of the Euro in 1/1/1999. While both breakpoints have effects on Turkey&rsquo
s economic relations, the European Union countries are expected to be influenced by only the introduction of the Euro. Stock market indices provided by DataStream is utilized. The statistical techniques used include the correlation and cointegration analysis. Results indicate that when examined on pair wise basis Turkish stock market has more liaisons with the European stock markets, in general, after the Customs Union
but less liaisons after the conversion to Euro. However, when examined as a group, the cointegration result finds the Euro as influential as the Customs Union. Alternatively, the European stock markets have decreasing integrations as a result of correlation analysis after the Euro, but it is an influential breakpoint according to cointegrating structures.

This Master Thesis in General Management aims on defining the relationship between a country's degree of development and household asset management in the European Union. Both of the variables are defined by relevant sub-variables where the relationships are being observed. There were used datasets gathered by respected European Statistical Agency Eurostat for 2019. Master Thesis focuses on the European Union area and it aims at defining the crucial relationships between the variables in order to draw the conclusions that would help in pursuing the degree of development in different countries. In the Master Thesis, we were using quantitative research reflecting on the statistically expressed relationships using the correlation pattern. There were used 29 numbers for each of the variables representing the total number of European Union members in 2019 (28) plus the European Union average. There were found statistically significant relationships based on which we were able to define a proper generalization together with the causation pattern for the European Union countries and households.

Defence date: 27 February 2019
Examining Board: Prof. Dr. Heike Schweitzer, LL.M. (Yale), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin; Prof. Giorgio Monti, European University Institute; Prof. Dr. Rupprecht Podszun, Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf; Prof. Lorenzo Federico Pace, Università degli studi del Molise
The thesis contributes to the debate on the EU’s approach to the business practice of resale price maintenance (RPM), which is widely criticized as too strict and in conflict with what is considered to be the consensus in the economic literature. The thesis critically dissects the economic consensus, on which the critique against the EU’s approach is based, by analyzing the empirical evidence that is cited to support the claim that RPM can frequently be explained by the service-based RPM models and shows that there is no convincing evidence that would support the significance of these positive RPM models that predict positive effects on welfare. To support this finding the thesis collects new evidence by surveying the marketing literature and shows that not only is there no convincing evidence that the positive RPM models frequently apply, but to the contrary there is evidence that these models are inconsistent with the real world phenomenon of RPM. Having refuted the service-based models the thesis takes up the scientific challenge that “it takes a theory to beat a theory” and proposes to fill the gap with three price-based models. The thesis offers an analysis of the three price-based RPM models, first from the perspective of welfare effects and then from a broader economic perspective in an attempt to ultimately show that the EU approach to RPM can be justified based on these economic models. All three models explain the situation in which RPM is used by a branded good manufacturer to create the perception of high quality, which is used either as a credible quality signal, becomes a component of the product or is used to bias the consumer decision; they thus enter the difficult terrain of consumer preference formation and of markets for the intangible components of a product.

This thesis investigates relationships between the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and energy markets. A special focus is given to fuel switching, the main shortterm abatement measure within the EU ETS. This consists in substituting Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGTs) for hard-coal plants in off-peak power generation. Thereby coal plants run for shorter periods, which allows power producers to reduce their CO2 emissions. In Chapter 1, we outline different approaches explaining relationships between carbon and energy markets. We also review the literature relating to these issues. Next, we further describe the fuel switching process and, in particular, we analyze the influence of energy and environmental efficiency of thermal power plants (coal and gas) on fuel switching. In Chapter 2, we provide a theoretical analysis that shows how differences in the efficiency of CCGTs can rule interactions between gas and carbon prices. The main result shows that the allowance price becomes more sensitive to the gas price when the level of CO2 emissions increases. In Chapter 3, we examine interactions between carbon, coal, gas and electricity prices in an empirical study. Among the main results, we find that there is a significant link between carbon and gas prices in the long-run equilibrium.In Chapter 4, we analyze the cross-market price discovery process between gas and CO2 markets. We identified in previous chapters that there is a robust significant link between gas and CO2 markets. They are linked commodities, and their prices are affected by the same information. In an empirical analysis, we find that the carbon market is the leader in cross-market price discovery process.

AbstractThis Chapter shows that there still exist urgent actions possible with existing tools and procedures for breaking the prisoner dilemma through modalities of solidarity leading to more responsibility. These feasible solutions are simple recipes based upon past experiences for opening again the European Union (EU) win–win game by activating conditional incentives able to enhance channelled financial market reactions favourable to adjusting countries, preventing self-fulfilling speculation and benefiting the whole EU.

With the end of cold war, Central and Eastern European countries who had not participated in the integration of Europe, have applied to become members of European Union. Hungary, a Central European country; applied for membership on December 16, 1991, started full membership negotiations in 1998 and joined the Union on May 1, 2004. Turkey on the other hand, was granted candidacy status during Helsinki European Council Summit Meeting of December 1999, after a 40 years long relationship that started with Turkey’s application to join European Economic Community on July 31, 1959. Negotiations for full membership of Turkey were finally started on October 3, 2005 and country entered a new era to adapt EU Acquis. Within this context, this study aims to compare financial markets of EU member state Hungary and candidate state Turkey for the period of 1998 - 2015; to evaluate risks and fragilities related to financial development levels and stability of banking sectors for both countries based on generally accepted financial indicators. In conclusion; Hungary was observed to have significantly less developed capital market compared Turkey over the years, despite having similar ratios in financial deepening during recent years. Findings of this assessment point out an increasing credit risk for banking sector of Hungary, enhanced by the economic crisis of 2008. In comparison, credit risk in banking sector of Turkey has been decreasing over the years. High credit/deposit ratio, is a sign of degradation and can be observed in Hungary's balance sheets, raised for Turkey as well.

The crisis that arose in Greece at the last quarter of 2009 affected the countries that have heavily government debt like Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland as soon as 2008 Global Financial Crisis originating from USA Mortgage Markets affect European Union (EU) countries under heavily debt burden. The effects of that crisis in the short run are demand shrinking and decrease in export. Turkey, which has important economic relations with EU countries in the last fifty years, is the primary country that can be negatively affected from demand shrinking in Europe. Turkey that indirectly experience 2008 global financial crisis because of the decrease in export volume in Europe also seem fatefully affected in this crisis. This article aims to determine the effects of the crisis to Turkey’s export ampirically in the EU countries that have the lion’s share in the Turkey’s export markets. As well, it is trying to explain whether this crisis affects over-all Europe or not.

The Common Organization of the Market for Agricultural Prod­ucts in the European Union is part of the common agricultural policy, which ensures both stable and predictable markets and resilient purchase prices, which in turn safeguards farmers’ stable earnings and provides constant supply of quality food to consumers. The aim of this study is to analyze the applicability and adaptability of the mechanism of the common organization of markets in the EU, including: its internal aspect, mainly related to interventions in the market for agricultur­al products, and its external aspect related to the trade with third countries, import and export licenses, refund of part of costs associated with exporting agricultural products produced in the Community, etc. The Common Organization of Markets, as a basis for implementing the EU Common Agricultural Policy, operates within a financial framework period­ically updated by the European Commission in order to adequately imple­ment the principle of subsidiarity, allowing EU Member States to play a key role in terms of interventions in the agricultural sector.

During the development process, particularly Middle and Eastern European Countries have increasingly integrated into the Union economy while parliaments, governments, public and private sectors have put forth significant effort to prepare for membership to European Union. European Union, on the other hand, prepared a financial framework in 1989 to actively support such efforts. Thus the Union financial and institutional regulations were realized to finance the process of transition to market economy. In this regard, Poland has quickly completed the necessary steps for harmonization and accelerated its efforts towards this goal. Following the radical change Poland experienced after 1989, the process of democratization and transition to open market economy. In our study we compared and investigated Poland economic and political situation before joining European Union, with the developments during the harmonization process and its economic structure today. In this process, it will be appropriate to take a look at Poland recent political and economic life as well as the reasons as to why Poland is an important state for Europe.

Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) are increasingly being used in the business world, and this process plays an important role in economic theory and lays the foundations for sustainable business development. The global recovery in foreign direct investment (FDI) was strong in 2015, with global FDI flows jumping by 38%, their highest level since the global economic and financial crisis of 2008–2009. A surge in cross-border M&As to $721 billion, from $432 billion in 2014, was the principal factor behind the global rebound. These M&As were partly driven by very large corporate reconfigurations by multinational enterprises (MNEs), i.e. changes in legal or ownership structures, including shifting their headquarters for strategic reasons and tax inversions. This paper examines the key M&As stimulating strategic objectives and causes, and ways of this process, as well as the cross-border M&As market activity. The objective of this paper is to identify ways, purposes and reasons of M&As transactions, and to present the factors influencing this process and market activity. The object of this research is the M&As transactions market. Research methodology of this paper is based on scientific literature and statistical information systematic, comparative, logical and econometric analysis.

Credit risk as a risk in basic, traditional, and most important banking business – the bank loan, is one of the biggest financial risks, considering that borrowers (debtors) defaults, directly affect the bank’s financial result and capital, and thus its competitiveness in the market. The impact of problematic loans on banking operations will be discussed for 2019-2021 on the example of OTP banking Group operating in 11 countries, to find out if there is a relation between NPL volume and the banking competitiveness. A comparative analysis method has been applied, comparing the profit, the NPL rate and the market position within the banking sector of the country to which each Group member belongs. Results has shown that the reduction in the volume of non-performing loans affected the increase in the competitiveness of banks, as well as that member banks located in European Union countries have a lower percentage of non-performing loans in relation to the member banks of the group operating in countries outside the European Union. The reduction of the percentage of bad loans is certainly in harmonization with the regulations of the European Union, but also in their better implementation.

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union has generated a great deal of attention and controversy among research community, practitioners and the wider population. The aim of this study is to overview and to discuss the thoughts and comments on the CAP which have been addressed by both its proponents and its opponents in the scientific publications, political commentaries, official reports, pubic opinion surveys and social-media-based public forums. While on the one hand, recent public opinion poll (Eurobarometer 2016) indicated broad support among EU citizens for the CAP; on the other hand, other sources give some strong arguments in favour of reducing or even scrapping the CAP. The CAP supporters (including European Commission itself) highlight, among others, the benefits of this policy (environmental; cultural; social vitality; food variety, quality and security; maintaining of rural employment, etc.) for all European citizens and not only for farmers, while CAP opponents stress its unfairness both to non-farmers (e.g. huge financial costs of its policy for taxpayers) and small farmers (large farmers benefit most), heavy administrative burden for farmers as well as the CAP’s destructing impact both on the EU states’ agriculture systems and developing countries’ agricultural markets. The CAP is basically the same for all EU member states but the EU countries differ considerably in terms of their rural development. According to some views, the CAP does not fit the Central and Eastern European countries. It represents a failure of the EU to adjust adequately from an exclusively Western European institution into a proper pan-European organization.

Purpose − this study investigates the stock market co-movements among three countries to observe the contagion which can be increased during Brexit. Research methodology – Wavelet method used in this study to illustrate exciting dynamics of the coherence between the UK, German and Hungarian stock markets since 2012. Findings – the results show that the connection of the Budapest Stock Exchange and London Stock Exchange Market Indices is increasing recently. The coherence between DAX and FTSE appears to be very high lately. This supports the idea that may affect Hungarian markets. Research limitations – because of the nonstationary of the time series such as stock exchange market data, it is essential to have a measure of correlation or coherence such as wavelet. The days on which both markets were open could be used to see the co-movements better. Practical implications – this paper aims to show if there is a particular sign for a co-movement between markets and therefore warns the investors about a dramatic change which might appear after Brexit. After the decision of Brexit, investors in many markets do not know what their future position should be. Although it is still unknown how FTSE will react when Britain leaves the EU, as a major country of the Union it may create some sanctions. These sanctions may harm many stock markets as it may create new fluctuations. Originality/Value – this study used a technique called wavelet to search the possible effects of Brexit in an Eastern economy. The novelty of this paper is coming from the application of the wavelet method by using financial market data, that enables us to understand the relations among stock markets during no crisis time. Because many studies focus on big markets in Europe such as British, German and French stock markets, the main contribution of this study fills the gap in the literature on the effects of Brexit in an Eastern Europe Economy

In recent years, the rule of law and, especially, its “proper” implementation has become one of the most debated topics in Europe in recent years. The “Big Bang Enlargement” marked the beginning of dilemmas whether the new EU Member States fulfil the necessary rule of law criteria and opened the way for divergent views on how to implement TEU Article 2 values in practice. Furthermore, constant problems and difficulty of the candidate countries to fulfil the necessary rule of law criteria added to the complexity of the problem. In turn, the European institutions have tried to introduce a series of mechanisms and procedures to improve the oversight and make the states follow the rules - starting from the famous Treaty on the European Union (TEU) Article 7, the Rule of Law Mechanism, annual reports on the rule of law and the most recent Conditionality Regulation. The Conditionality Regulation was finally adopted in December 2020 after much discussion and opposition from certain EU Member States. It calls for the suspension of payments, commitments and disbursement of instalments, and a reduction of funding in the cases of general deficiencies with the rule of law. On the other hand, similar provisions were laid out in the February 2020 enlargement negotiation methodology specifying that in the cases of no progress, imbalance of the overall negotiations or regression, the scope and intensity of pre-accession assistance can be adjusted downward thus descaling financial assistance to candidate countries. The similarities between the two mechanisms, one for the Member States, the other for candidate countries shows an increased sharing of experiences and approaches to dealing with possible deficiencies or breaches of the rule of law through economic sanctioning, in order to resolve challenges to the unity of the European union. The Covid-19 pandemic and the crisis it has provoked on many fronts has turned the attention of the Member States (i.e. the Council) away from the long running problematic issues. Consequently, the procedures against Poland and Hungary based on the Rule of Law Mechanism have slowed down or become fully stalled, while certain measures taken up by some European states have created concerns about the limitations of human rights and liberties. This paper, therefore, analyses the efforts the EU is making in protecting the rule of law in its Member States and the candidate countries. It also analyses the new focus of the EU in the financial area where it has started to develop novel mechanisms that would affect one of the most influential EU tools – the funding of member and candidate countries through its structural and enlargement policy. Finally, it attempts to determine and provide conclusions on the efficiency of new instruments with better regulated criteria and timing of activities will be and how much they would affect the EU and its current and future member states.

Solidarity as one of the cornerstone values of the European Union has been once again seated on the red chair and intensively discussed within the European Union and broader. After the economic recession and migrant crisis that marked the last two decades, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has once again harshly tested the fundamental objectives and values of the European Union and the responsiveness and effectiveness of its governance system on many fronts. In April, 2020 several EU Member States were among the worst affected countries worldwide and this situation soon became similar in their closest neighbourhood. It put a huge pressure on the EU to act faster, while at the same time placing this sui generis community to the test that led to revealing its strengths and weaknesses. As it happened in the previous crises, the Union launched policies and various programmes that were meant to lessen the burden of the Member States and aspiring countries caused by the crises. The objectives of the mentioned soft law instruments that the EU adopted during the COVID-19 crisis has been not only to show that EU law is equipped to react to health and economic crises rapidly but to deliver its support in terms of solidarity to its Member States and its closest neighbours facing the unprecedented health and economic crisis. This article will explore the value and implication of the solidarity principle in times of Covid-19 in its various manifestations. A special focus will be on the financial and material aspects of the EU instruments created to combat the negative consequences of the pandemic and their further impact on shaping the solidarity principle within the EU system. While examining the character and types of these mechanisms a special focus will be placed on those available to Western Balkan countries, whereas Montenegro as the “fast runner” in the EU integration process will be taken as a case study for the purpose of more detailed analyses. One of the major conclusions of the paper will be that although the speed of the EU reactions due to highly complex structure of decision making was not always satisfying for all the actors concerned, the EU once again has shown that it is reliable and that it treats the Western Balkan countries as privileged partners all for the sake of ending pandemic and launching the socio-economic recovery of the Western Balkans. Analytical and comparative methods will be dominantly relied upon throughout the paper. This will allow the authors to draw the main conclusions of the paper and assess the degree of solidarity as well as the effectiveness of the existing EU instruments that are available to Montenegro and aimed at diminishing negative consequences of the crisis.

This paper employs a panel data econometric approach in order to empirically ascertain the role of the phenomenon of financialisation in the deceleration of labour productivity in the European Union (EU) countries from 1980 to 2019. During that time, the EU countries suffered a huge structural transformation based on Reaganomics and Thatcherism and their financial systems have experienced strong liberalisation and deregulation, which have contributed to poor evolution of labour productivity and have revived fears around a new ‘secular stagnation’ in the era of financialisation. Grounded in post-Keynesian literature, the slowdown of labour productivity in the majority of developed economies in the last decades cannot be separated from the phenomenon of financialisation, which has occurred through four different channels, namely the weak economic performance, the decline in the labour income share, the increase in personal income inequality, and strengthening of the degree of financialisation. Our findings confirm that lagged labour productivity, economic performance, and labour income share have a positive impact on labour productivity in the EU countries, while personal income inequality and the degree of financialisation impact it negatively. Our findings also reveal that labour productivity in the EU countries in the last decades would have grown more if there had been a stronger economic performance, a smaller decline (or even a rise) of the labour income share, a smaller increase (or even a decrease) of personal income inequality, and a weakening of the degree of financialisation.

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias

Banco de la República provides a comprehensive overview of Colombia’s finan¬cial infrastructure in its Payment Systems Report, which is an important product of the work it does to oversee that infrastructure. The figures published in this edition of the report are for the year 2020, a pandemic period in which the con¬tainment measures designed and adopted to alleviate the strain on the health system led to a sharp reduction in economic activity and consumption in Colom¬bia, as was the case in most countries. At the start of the pandemic, the Board of Directors of Banco de la República adopted decisions that were necessary to supply the market with ample liquid¬ity in pesos and US dollars to guarantee market stability, protect the payment system and preserve the supply of credit. The pronounced growth in mone¬tary aggregates reflected an increased preference for liquidity, which Banco de la República addressed at the right time. These decisions were implemented through operations that were cleared and settled via the financial infrastructure. The second section of this report, following the introduction, offers an analysis of how the various financial infrastructures in Colombia have evolved and per¬formed. One of the highlights is the large-value payment system (CUD), which registered more momentum in 2020 than during the previous year, mainly be¬cause of an increase in average daily remunerated deposits made with Banco de la República by the General Directorate of Public Credit and the National Treasury (DGCPTN), as well as more activity in the sell/buy-back market with sovereign debt. Consequently, with more activity in the CUD, the Central Securi¬ties Depository (DCV) experienced an added impetus sparked by an increase in the money market for bonds and securities placed on the primary market by the national government. The value of operations cleared and settled through the Colombian Central Counterparty (CRCC) continues to grow, propelled largely by peso/dollar non-deliverable forward (NDF) contracts. With respect to the CRCC, it is important to note this clearing house has been in charge of managing risks and clearing and settling operations in the peso/dollar spot market since the end of last year, following its merger with the Foreign Exchange Clearing House of Colombia (CCDC). Since the final quarter of 2020, the CRCC has also been re¬sponsible for clearing and settlement in the equities market, which was former¬ly done by the Colombian Stock Exchange (BVC). The third section of this report provides an all-inclusive view of payments in the market for goods and services; namely, transactions carried out by members of the public and non-financial institutions. During the pandemic, inter- and intra-bank electronic funds transfers, which originate mostly with companies, increased in both the number and value of transactions with respect to 2019. However, debit and credit card payments, which are made largely by private citizens, declined compared to 2019. The incidence of payment by check contin¬ue to drop, exhibiting quite a pronounced downward trend during the past last year. To supplement to the information on electronic funds transfers, section three includes a segment (Box 4) characterizing the population with savings and checking accounts, based on data from a survey by Banco de la República con-cerning the perception of the use of payment instruments in 2019. There also is segment (Box 2) on the growth in transactions with a mobile wallet provided by a company specialized in electronic deposits and payments (Sedpe). It shows the number of users and the value of their transactions have increased since the wallet was introduced in late 2017, particularly during the pandemic. In addition, there is a diagnosis of the effects of the pandemic on the payment patterns of the population, based on data related to the use of cash in circu¬lation, payments with electronic instruments, and consumption and consumer confidence. The conclusion is that the collapse in the consumer confidence in¬dex and the drop in private consumption led to changes in the public’s pay¬ment patterns. Credit and debit card purchases were down, while payments for goods and services through electronic funds transfers increased. These findings, coupled with the considerable increase in cash in circulation, might indicate a possible precautionary cash hoarding by individuals and more use of cash as a payment instrument. There is also a segment (in Focus 3) on the major changes introduced in regulations on the retail-value payment system in Colombia, as provided for in Decree 1692 of December 2020. The fourth section of this report refers to the important innovations and tech¬nological changes that have occurred in the retail-value payment system. Four themes are highlighted in this respect. The first is a key point in building the financial infrastructure for instant payments. It involves of the design and im¬plementation of overlay schemes, a technological development that allows the various participants in the payment chain to communicate openly. The result is a high degree of interoperability among the different payment service providers. The second topic explores developments in the international debate on central bank digital currency (CBDC). The purpose is to understand how it could impact the retail-value payment system and the use of cash if it were to be issued. The third topic is related to new forms of payment initiation, such as QR codes, bio¬metrics or near field communication (NFC) technology. These seemingly small changes can have a major impact on the user’s experience with the retail-value payment system. The fourth theme is the growth in payments via mobile tele¬phone and the internet. The report ends in section five with a review of two papers on applied research done at Banco de la República in 2020. The first analyzes the extent of the CRCC’s capital, acknowledging the relevant role this infrastructure has acquired in pro¬viding clearing and settlement services for various financial markets in Colom¬bia. The capital requirements defined for central counterparties in some jurisdic¬tions are explored, and the risks to be hedged are identified from the standpoint of the service these type of institutions offer to the market and those associated with their corporate activity. The CRCC’s capital levels are analyzed in light of what has been observed in the European Union’s regulations, and the conclusion is that the CRCC has a scheme of security rings very similar to those applied internationally and the extent of its capital exceeds what is stipulated in Colombian regulations, being sufficient to hedge other risks. The second study presents an algorithm used to identify and quantify the liquidity sources that CUD’s participants use under normal conditions to meet their daily obligations in the local financial market. This algorithm can be used as a tool to monitor intraday liquidity. Leonardo Villar Gómez Governor