Thèses sur le sujet « Financial crises – Europe, Southern »

Defence date: 13 June 2019
Examining Board: Prof. Hanspeter Kriesi, European University Institute (Supervisor); Prof. Elias Dinas, European University Institute; Prof. Eva Anduiza, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; Prof. Kenneth M. Roberts, Duke University
The Great Recession constituted a breaking point in several aspects of the cultural, economic and political life of southern European countries (i.e. Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain). This dissertation aims to shed light on the political consequences of the economic crisis in this region —with a specific focus on Spain as a paradigmatic case— by analysing different aspects of the political transformations that took place during the period of crisis. The underlying argument is that, albeit some relevant differences, the four countries experienced a common pattern: the incapacity of national politics to offer differentiated recipes to the deteriorating economic situation triggered a widespread crisis of representation that introduced new issues in the political agenda and drove the political transformations in these countries. The combination of a political and economic crisis at the national and European levels opened new political spaces that new parties capitalised by appealing to the need for democratic renewal and opposition to austerity politics. Furthermore, as illustrated by the Spanish case, and in particular the Catalan experience, the political crisis had far-reaching consequences beyond economic grievances, leading to the activation of different types of conflicts. Overall, the findings suggest that the transformations in the structure of political conflict in southern Europe in the aftermath of the Great Recession are not the by-product of a growing cultural divide —as is the case in several other continental and north-European countries—, but instead respond to the loss of credibility in the political system. Methodologically, the dissertation relies on an original dataset of media content as well as on several sources of survey data to test the empirical validity of the claims.
Chapter 2 'From Boom to Bust : A Comparative Analysis of Greece and Spain under Austerity' of the PhD thesis draws upon an earlier version published as chapter 'From boom to bust : a comparative analysis of Greece and Spain under austerity' (2018) in the book Living under austerity : Greek society in crisis.
Chapter 3 'Old versus new politics: The political spaces in Southern Europe in times of crisis' of the PhD thesis draws upon an earlier version published as an article 'Old versus new politics : the political spaces in Southern Europe in times of crises' (2018) in the journal 'Party politics'
Chapter 4 'Out with the Old: Restructuring Spanish Politics' of the PhD thesis draws upon an earlier version published as an article 'Challenging business as usual? : the rise of new parties in Spain in times of crisis' (2017) in the journal 'West European politics'

Mestrado em Finanças
O presente estudo analisa as melhores variáveis para prever uma crise bancária na União Europeia, focando-se especialmente no crescimento do crédito bancário a particulares e empresas. A amostra é constituída por dados anuais de 1960 até 2016 de onze países, todos pertencentes à UE antes da Crise Financeira de 2007-2009. Os modelos logit e OLS linear probability foram utilizados para avaliar que variáveis influenciam a probabilidade de ocorrência de uma crise bancária e, posteriormente, para analisar as variáveis mais impactantes na evolução do crédito a sociedades não financeiras. Os resultados evidenciam que quando o crédito bancário está a crescer há quatro anos, a probabilidade de ocorrência de uma crise bancária, no ano seguinte, aumenta. Estes resultados assemelham-se ao que foi encontrado por Bordo & Meissner (2012) e Schularick & Taylor (2012), pois também argumentam que o crescimento exponencial do crédito é uma boa variável para estimar uma crise.
This study examines the variables that are more appropriated to predict a banking crisis in the European Union, with a special focus on private credit growth. The sample is composed by annual data from 1960 until 2016 from eleven countries, all belonging to the EU prior to the Global Financial Crisis. It is used the logit and the OLS linear probability models to assess what variables influence the likelihood of a banking crisis and, afterwards, to analyze which variables influence the evolution of private credit. The results provide evidence that when credit is growing for four years, the probability of facing a banking crisis, in the following year, increases. This finding is similar to what was found by Bordo & Meissner (2012) and Schularick & Taylor (2012), as they also argue that credit booms are good estimators of financial crisis.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The economic crisis in Europe is often articulated as a direct consequence of Lehman Brothers’ collapse. Yet it was only in Europe that the real economic crisis was sustained in a peculiar, prolonged way. In this comparative study of the EU-27, I examine the different manifestations of the crisis with an emphasis on employment, marginalisation and inequality. Questions: How to locate the crisis and the people the most affected by it; how can different policy responses (stimulation, social investment, active labour market policies) be viewed in connection with the crisis? Methods: Using multilevel methods I analyse how individual experiences are linked to and explained by national differences. Multiple correspondence analysis is used to model subjective experiences. Results: First, there is no correlation between fiscal, financial and welfare-related aspects of the crisis. Therefore, the imbalances of the public economy do not straightforwardly justify the recent cuts to social protection. Second, and coincidently, in countries where expenditure on social protection has been maintaned, economic difficulties have been less emphatic. Non-social stimulation bears no similar benefits. Third, in the so-called post-Fordist, education-intensive economies the subjective effects of the crisis are systematically stronger. These effects are the most emphatic among the young, indicating vast sustained consequences into adulthood. However, the attitudes of young adults are straying further. The unemployed young and those working in fixed-term contracts relate differently to insecurity, lacking shared, generation-wide experiences and representations of conflict. Conclusions: Qualitative changes in the conditions of work make the crisis present everywhere in Europe, including Protestant countries where the effects of the banking crisis were limited. As a possible alternative explanation my thesis then frames the crisis as a crisis of ‘post-Fordist’ work, asking whether it is primarily ‘financial’ except as a rhetorical construct. I then discuss its broad implications to welfare and inter-generational equity.

Cette thèse étudie quelques aspects de la contagion financière en Europe, pendant la crise des subprimes et celle des dettes souveraines européennes. Ainsi, dans le premier chapitre, nous étudions la transmission du stress financier de la zone euro aux pays de l’Europe Orientale, et centrale (PECO). Notre objectif est d’examiner empiriquement le lien entre la dégradation de l’environnement financier de la zone euro -pendant ces deux crises- et les variations de la volatilité sur les marchés boursiers des PECO. Dans le deuxième chapitre, notre objectif est d’étudier la contagion entre les marchés boursiers des PECO et de la zone euro. Pour ce faire, nous optons pour la méthodologie de Flavin et al. (2008) fondée sur une approche unifiée qui permet de tester à la fois la shift et la pure contagion. Enfin, dans le troisième chapitre, nous nous intéressons aux effets des crises financières récentes sur les rendements des actions bancaires de 15 pays. Notre contribution à la littérature est double. Tout d’abord, nous utilisons un modèle multifactoriel des rendements des actions bancaires augmenté par un facteur de risque souverain. En outre, nous optons pour un modèle de régression avec transition douce (STR) qui permet une définition endogène des périodes de crises et capte les changements de paramètres associés à la shift contagion
This thesis examines some aspects of the financial contagion in Europe during the subprime crisis and the European sovereign debt. The aim of the first chapter is to study the transmission of financial stress in the Eurozone to Central and Eastern European countries (CEE). Our goal is to empirically examine the relationship between the degradation of the financial environment of the Eurozone -during these two crises- and the variations of volatility on the CEE’s stock markets. In the second chapter, we investigate contagion between pairs of Eurozone and CEE’s stock market. For this purpose, we opt for the methodology of Flavin et al. (2008) based on a unified approach that allows for testing both shift and bi-directional pure contagion. In the third chapter, we analyze the influence of the recent European sovereign debt crisis on banks’ equity returns for 15 countries. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, we use an explicit multifactor model of equity returns extended with a sovereign risk factor. Second, we adopt a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) framework that allows for an endogenous definition of crisis periods and captures the changes in parameters associated with shift contagion

At global level there is a growing interest towards forest plantations as investment opportunities for profit generation, for building strategic assets, but also to address sustainable development challenges with the production of essential goods and services. These are the reasons why plantation investments are attracting new investors and expanding outside the traditional regions and markets. In southern Europe, forest plantations represent a consolidated segment of investment for landowners. In future years, the increasing demand for timber and fibres driven by bioeconomy and bioenergy policies, might boost the interest towards forest plantations investments in this region, with an increasingly important role played by financial investors as well as by strategic partnerships between landowners, industrial companies and external investors. In the light of this evolution, there is an urgent need for more information and valuation studies on forest plantations to support better investment and policy-making decisions. Recent research by Sedjo (1983; 2001) and Cubbage et al. (2007; 2010; 2014) estimated investment returns for the main species and contexts at global level. In this study, we used a similar approach to estimate and analyse, on a comparative perspective, investment returns for productive forest plantation species in the southern European context, focusing in some regions of Italy, Spain and Portugal. Our main interest involved forest plantations of private nature with the primary purpose of wood and fibers production. We carried out a financial analysis before-tax, using capital budgeting indicators to estimate returns at aggregate level, based on representative stand management regimes. Indicators were calculated according to a baseline scenario as well as in alternative scenarios, analyzing how the main policy and market factors are influencing returns. We also carried out a trend analysis – which represents the most original methodological contribution of this research – estimating how returns have changed in recent years as a result of the evolution of the key economic variables. Overall, our results indicate that in southern Europe there are some opportunities for reasonably interesting returns for sectorial investors, i.e. landowners and forest-based industry, and in some cases also for financial investors. Nevertheless, the dynamicity of the regional timber market and the small-scale fragmented forest holdings are structural factors that new investors would have to take into consideration. More in specific, hybrid poplar plantations in northern Italy and Castile and León (Spain) are estimated to provide on average the potentially highest returns, but the large range of variability and the high land and opportunity costs are unlikely to make them an attractive investment for non-landowners. Eucalyptus plantations in Portugal are estimated to be the only investment where non-landowners could expect to get relatively interesting and stable returns, although a recent law reform in the country could limit new investments. Maritime pine and radiata pine plantations in Portugal and Spain present lower returns, suffering the situation of depressed stumpage prices after the 2008 economic crisis, which strongly affected the sawmilling sector. We also extended our analysis to mixed and multipurpose plantations, i.e. polycyclic plantations, in the context of the Po valley (northern Italy); these showed potentially competitive profitability performances and advantages, in spite of the experimental character and technology transfer limitations. From a more general perspective, our research provided valuable results to improve the knowledge on the potential investment returns from forest plantation in the region, offering means to compare the status and trends of investments, markets and policies. For example, it has emerged from our research that the current subsidy policies are not effective in providing a clear, balanced and stable framework for investments in forest plantations, and that a more strategic coordination at regional level is urgently needed in order to support the competitive position of the sector in front of the challenges posed by the bioeconomy strategy. Moreover, the methodological design and approach of this research could provide the basis for establishing a permanent observatory on forestry investments in southern Europe, allowing a better market monitoring, business analysis and policy-making in the future.
A livello globale, vi è una crescita d’interesse verso le piantagioni forestali come opportunità d’investimento per generare profitto, per costruire assets strategici, ma anche per affrontare le sfide di sviluppo sostenibile attraverso la produzione di beni e servizi essenziali. Queste sono le principali ragioni per le quali gli investimenti in piantagioni stanno attraendo nuovi investitori e si stanno espandendo al di fuori delle regioni e dei mercati tradizionali. Nell'Europa meridionale, le piantagioni forestali rappresentano un segmento d’investimento consolidato, soprattutto per i proprietari terrieri. Nei prossimi anni, la crescente domanda di legname spinta dalle attuali politiche per la bio-economia potrebbe stimolare ulteriormente l'interesse verso gli investimenti in piantagioni in questa regione, con un ruolo sempre più importante svolto da investitori finanziari e da partnership strategiche tra proprietari terrieri, imprese industriali ed investitori esterni. Alla luce di quest’evoluzione, vi è un'urgente necessità di maggiori informazioni e studi di valutazione degli investimenti in piantagioni per sostenere migliori decisioni d’investimento e di politiche. I recenti lavori di Sedjo (1983; 2001) e Cubbage et al. (2007; 2010; 2014) hanno stimato i rendimenti degli investimenti per le principali specie e contesti a livello mondiale. In questo studio, abbiamo utilizzato un approccio simile per stimare e analizzare, in una prospettiva comparativa, i rendimenti degli investimenti in piantagioni produttive nel contesto dell'Europa meridionale, concentrandoci in alcune regioni di Italia, Spagna e Portogallo. Il nostro interesse principale si è indirizzato sulle piantagioni forestali di natura privata e aventi come obbiettivo primario la produzione di legname. Abbiamo effettuato un'analisi di tipo finanziario al lordo delle imposte, utilizzando indicatori di convenienza per stimare i rendimenti a livello aggregato sulla base di modelli gestionali rappresentativi. Tali indicatori sono stati calcolati prima sulla base di uno scenario base, e poi di scenari alternativi, analizzando l’effetto delle principali variabili esterne derivanti dal mercato e dalle politiche settoriali. Inoltre, abbiamo effettuato un'analisi degli andamenti, la quale rappresenta il contributo metodologico più originale di questo lavoro, dove abbiamo analizzato come sono cambiati, nel corso degli ultimi anni, i margini d’investimento a fronte dell’evoluzione delle principali variabili economiche. In generale, i risultati della ricerca indicano che, nell'Europa meridionale esistono alcune opportunità di rendimenti finanziari interessanti per gli investitori settoriali (cioè i proprietari terrieri e le industrie forestali) e in alcuni casi potenzialmente d’interesse anche per gli investitori finanziari. Ciononostante, è emerso che il contesto regionale è caratterizzato da fattori strutturali, legati alla dinamica del mercato del legname e dalla struttura fondiaria forestale, che devono essere presi in esame accuratamente dai nuovi investitori. Nello specifico, le piantagioni di pioppo nell'Italia settentrionale e Castiglia e León (Spagna) sono state stimate essere potenzialmente le più redditizie, ma è improbabile che gli ampi margini di variabilità e gli elevati costi di uso dei terreni li rendano un investimento interessante per non proprietari terrieri. Le piantagioni di eucalipto in Portogallo sono state stimate essere l'unico investimento in cui anche i non-proprietari possono aspettarsi livelli di redditività relativamente interessanti e stabili, anche se una recente riforma legislativa nel Paese potrebbe limitare nuovi investimenti. Le piantagioni di pino marittimo e pino radiata in Portogallo e Spagna presentano rendimenti sensibilmente inferiori, risentendo della situazione di prezzi bassi causata della crisi economica del 2008 che ha colpito pesantemente il settore delle segherie. Abbiamo anche esteso la nostra analisi a piantagioni miste e multifunzionali, ovvero le piantagioni policicliche nel contesto della pianura padana (Italia settentrionale); queste hanno dimostrato di poter offrire rendimenti finanziari e vantaggi potenzialmente competitivi, anche se è da tenere presente il loro carattere sperimentale e i limiti legati al trasferimento tecnologico. Da un punto di vista più generale, la nostra ricerca ha fornito risultati preziosi per migliorare la conoscenza dei potenziali rendimenti degli investimenti delle piantagioni forestali nell’Europa meridionale, fornendo strumenti per analizzare e confrontare lo stato e l’andamento degli investimenti, dei mercati e delle politiche. Ad esempio, è emerso che le attuali politiche di sussidio non si rivelano efficaci nel fornire un quadro chiaro, equilibrato e stabile per stimolare gli investimenti in piantagioni forestali, e che è urgente un maggiore coordinamento strategico a livello europeo per sostenere la posizione competitiva del settore di fronte alle sfide che la strategia per la bio-economia pone. Inoltre, l’approccio e la metodologia di questa ricerca potrebbero fornire le basi per la creazione di un osservatorio permanente sugli investimenti forestali in Europa, consentendo in prospettiva un migliore monitoraggio del mercato, analisi settoriali e sviluppo di politiche.

Cette thèse a pour objet de revisiter, à la lumière de données financières historiques inédites, certains résultats de la littérature en histoire économique concernant la propagation de la Grande Dépression vers l’Europe, et plus particulièrement vers la France. Nous cherchons notamment à étudier les différents canaux de transmission à l’échelle internationale -boursiers, bancaires et monétaires- de cette crise et évaluons le rôle respectif qu’ils ont pu exercer dans la propagation de cette crise aux marchés financiers français. Les différentes contributions, que nous proposons dans cette thèse, sont avant tout empiriques et s’appuient sur un travail important effectué en amont de collecte et de traitement de données financières originales, provenant principalement des archives de la Bourse de Paris.Plusieurs résultats importants émergent de notre travail. Notre analyse sur les marchés boursiers montre, tout d’abord, que le krach boursier américain de 1929 a eu un faible impact sur la bourse de Paris, De même, le système bancaire français a, dans son ensemble, plutôt bien résisté à la crise bancaire du début des années 1930, en raison notamment de la forte spécialisation qui le caractérisait à cette époque. Enfin, nous montrons que le niveau d’intégration financière entre les États-Unis, la France et la Belgique, à travers l’étude des relations bilatérales entre les marchés actions de ces trois pays, a eu tendance à se renforcer avec l’adoption par ces pays du système de l’étalon "de change" or. Cette forte intégration financière, couplée aux contraintes en matière de politique économique liées à ce système monétaire, pourraient ainsi expliquer comment la Grande Dépression s’est propagée en Europe et pourquoi la crise économique s’est prolongée dans des pays comme la France ou la Belgique, comparativement à d’autres grandes économies
The aim of this thesis is to shed new light on how the Great Depression spread to Europe, and more particularly to France by relying on new historical financial data compiled from original source documents. In particular, we analyze the different transmission channels - stock markets, banking sector and international monetary system - of this crisis, in order to assess the respective role they have played in the impact of this crisis on French financial markets. We contribute empirically to this larger literature by providing evidence based on original historical data hand-collected from the archives of the Paris Stock Exchange.Several important results emerge from our work. Our analysis based on the stock markets shows, first, that the American stock market crash of 1929 had a low impact on the Paris stock exchange. Similarly, the French banking system, as a whole, remained quite resilient to the banking crisis of the beginning of the 1930s, mainly due to its strong specialization of the sector at that time. Finally, we show that the level of financial integration between the United States, France and Belgium - proxied by bilateral relationships between their equity markets - has tended to increase with the adoption by these countries of the Gold Exchange Standard. This high financial integration, coupled with economic policies constrained by the exchange rate regime, could explain how the Great Depression spread to Europe and why the economic crisis lasted longer in countries such as France or Belgium, compared to other major economies

Orientador: Rachel Meneguello
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas
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Resumo: Este trabalho tem como objetivo demonstrar os posicionamentos partidários das duas maiores agremiações e grupos transnacionais do Parlamento Europeu em relação à crise europeia, que se refletiu na área econômica, financeira, social e de emprego, no período entre 2009 e 2011. Para isto, esta dissertação analisou os programas partidários do S&D e do PPE-DC e seus documentos produzidos em quatro comissões do Parlamento Europeu. A principal conclusão dessa dissertação é que a ideologia foi importante para definir posicionamentos observados no âmbito das agremiações transnacionais. A partir desta descoberta, identificou-se também que a agremiação transnacional de esquerda e seu respectivo grupo no Parlamento Europeu produziram respostas políticas relacionadas a elementos da Terceira Via. Com referência à direita, descobriu-se que ainda persiste a defesa de políticas neoliberais. Outro achado importante foi que embora ambos os grupos apresentassem respostas e soluções diferenciadas para a crise, votaram em conjunto em muitos relatórios finais, mostrando que em âmbito transnacional os grupos tendem a cooperar mais do que competir
Abstract: This research aims to demonstrate the party positions of the two major parties and transnational groups in the European Parliament in relation to the European crisis, which was reflected in the economic, financial, social and employment areas in the period between 2009 and 2011. To this end, this dissertation analyzed the party programs of the S&D and EPP-CD and their documents produced in four Parliamentary Committees of the European Parliament. The main conclusion is that the ideology was important to define positions observed in the context of transnational parties. From this finding, we also identified that the transnational leftist party and its respective group party in the EP produced political responses related to elements of the Third Way. In regards the right wing, it still defends neoliberal responses to the crisis. Another important finding was that although both groups presented different answers and solutions to the crisis, they voted together on many final reports, showing that at transnational dimension they tend to cooperate more than compete
Mestrado
Ciencia Politica
Mestre em Ciência Política

L’interdépendance entre les différents métiers de la banque s’est considérablement renforcée au cours des deux dernières décennies. En effet, la globalisation financière a accru la porosité entre les différents métiers bancaires notamment lors de chocs qui bien qu’initialement circonscrits sur un segment de l’activité des banques contaminent maintenant rapidement la santé financière globale des banques. Cet état de fait est étayé par la crise des subprimes. L’échec de la réglementation bancaire révélé à travers la crise financière globale nous oblige à réexaminer le régime réglementaire en vigueur et à accorder une grande importance aux réformes réglementaires dans le système bancaire. Cette thèse a pour objectif d’identifier les carences de la réglementation bancaire et d’analyser les pistes de réforme réglementaire pour remédier à ces lacunes du régime réglementaire actuel. Ce travail de thèse fournit des évidences empiriques sur le fait que la mise en œuvre conjointe d’une stratégie de levier élevé et d’une stratégie de liquidité risquée a déstabilisé les banques au cours des années récentes. Les réglementations futures doivent donc s’orienter vers la complémentarité entre la réglementation de la capitalisation et la réglementation de la liquidité. En accord avec ces résultats empiriques, ce travail de thèse propose finalement un cadre théorique pour montrer que la prise en compte de la réglementation de la liquidité en tant que le complément de la réglementation de capitalisation est socialement optimale
The interdependence between different banking businesses has significantly increased over the past two decades. In fact, financial globalization increased the porosity between banking businesses in the case of shocks that rapidly infects the global financial health of banks, although they were initially limited to one segment of banking activities. That was shown by the Subprime crisis. The failure of banking regulation, as the global financial crisis demonstrated, is forcing us to review the existing regulatory regime and to pay attention to regulatory reforms in the banking system. This thesis aims to identify the flaws in the banking regulation and to analyze possible reform avenues. In this study, we provide empirical evidence on the joint use of risky leverage strategy and risky liquidity strategy by banks over the past years. Consequently, the future regulatory reforms have to shift towards the complementarity between capitalization regulation and liquidity regulation. In line with our empirical results, we finally propose a theoretical framework in order to establish that implementing liquidity regulation, as complement to the actual capitalization regulation is socially optimal

Bien que les pays de l’Europe Centrale et Orientale montrent de plus en plus des similitudes structurelles avec des pays développés, leurs économies restent vulnérables aux facteurs d’instabilité financière caractéristiques aux pays en développement. La présence de ces vulnérabilités a conduit aux débats sur les avantages de l’adhésion rapide à l’Union Economique et Monétaire (UEM). Traditionnellement, selon de la Théorie des Zones Monétaires Optimales, l’adoption de l’euro peut être bénéfique éliminant le risque du taux de change, donnant un meilleur accès au financement externe et atténuant l’impact des crises financières. De l’autre côté, l’abandon de l’autonomie de la politique monétaire et du taux de change prive les autorités nationales d’une marge de manœuvre dans le cas où le pays soit touché par les chocs asymétriques (d’offre) ou sa réponse aux chocs symétriques diverge de celle de la zone monétaire. L’objective de cette thèse est de déterminer les vulnérabilités financières des PECO et le degré d’asymétrie de leurs économies afin de participer aux débats sur la stratégie d’adhésion à l’euro
Although the Central and Eastern European countries show in many respects increasing similarities to developed economies they still present some characteristics pointing to potential sources of increased financial vulnerability. The presence of these vulnerabilities has raised the discussion about whether early euro adoption could represent an effective policy remedy for the CEECs’ economies. Traditionally, in the sense of the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) Theory, the arguments vary between two points of view. On the one side, the EMU adhesion would have a beneficial effect eliminating exchange rate risks, giving a better access to external financing and attenuating the impact of financial crises. On the other side, EMU membership may not protect these countries against asymmetric shocks. In fact, in the case of (real) asymmetric shocks or asymmetric response to common (real and nominal) shocks, the output and employment costs of the euro adoption could be very high. The objective of this dissertation is to study these issues, focusing first on potential source of financial vulnerabilities, and then to assess the degree of the CEECs’ shock asymmetry to participate in debates on the euro adoption

Depuis les quarante dernières années, toutes les régions du monde ont été traversées par des événements majeurs d’instabilité économique et financière. L’un des traits caractéristiques de ces manifestations est qu’elles ont non seulement eu un impact sur la santé économique financière et sociale de leur pays d’origine, mais aussi sur les économies étrangères. Cette thèse retrace l’évolution de la crise financière mondiale, démontre comment la plupart des pays de l’OCDE ont été affectés par la contagion, et met en lumière le rôle de la politique monétaire dans la propagation de la crise. Elle se compose en six essais. Le premier chapitre s’attache à étudier les corrélations dynamiques entre différents actifs et certaines variables économiques et financières durant la bulle internet de 2000 et la crise financière mondiale. Dans le deuxième essai, nous nous intéressons aux changements de transmission internationale des chocs de politique monétaire américaine. Le troisième essai adopte une approche plus économique. Nous y étudions la synchronisation des cycles, la composante stochastique de la volatilité de l’inflation, du produit et des taux d’intérêts. Dans le 4ème essai, nous abordons l’existence d’un éventuel «shift-contagion» lors de la crise financière mondiale et lors de la crise de la dette souveraine en Europe. Le cinquième essai aborde la dynamique intra-journalière ainsi que la transmission de volatilité entre Allemagne, France, et Royaume-Uni lors de la crise financière mondiale. Enfin le dernier cherche à analyser la volatilité de 12 marchés d’action
Depuis les quarante dernières années, toutes les régions du monde ont été traversées par des événements majeurs d’instabilité économique et financière. L’un des traits caractéristiques de ces manifestations est qu’elles ont non seulement eu un impact sur la santé économique financière et sociale de leur pays d’origine, mais aussi sur les économies étrangères. Cette thèse retrace l’évolution de la crise financière mondiale, démontre comment la plupart des pays de l’OCDE ont été affectés par la contagion, et met en lumière le rôle de la politique monétaire dans la propagation de la crise. Elle se compose en six essais. Le premier chapitre s’attache à étudier les corrélations dynamiques entre différents actifs et certaines variables économiques et financières durant la bulle internet de 2000 et la crise financière mondiale. Dans le deuxième essai, nous nous intéressons aux changements de transmission internationale des chocs de politique monétaire américaine. Le troisième essai adopte une approche plus économique. Nous y étudions la synchronisation des cycles, la composante stochastique de la volatilité de l’inflation, du produit et des taux d’intérêts. Dans le 4ème essai, nous abordons l’existence d’un éventuel «shift-contagion» lors de la crise financière mondiale et lors de la crise de la dette souveraine en Europe. Le cinquième essai aborde la dynamique intra-journalière ainsi que la transmission de volatilité entre Allemagne, France, et Royaume-Uni lors de la crise financière mondiale. Enfin le dernier cherche à analyser la volatilité de 12 marchés d’action

Nearly four decades of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-European Union (EU) relationship have witnessed the importance of ideas and identity alongside the economic interests in shaping the behaviour of the two sides. The study takes interest in understanding the EU’s actorness and the EU as a normative actor with and within Southeast Asia through a reflectivist lens. The thesis is an attempt to provide a new perspective on a relationship commonly assessed from an economic angle. It outlines the opportunity of non-traditional security (NTS) challenges to enhance EU actorness and normative influence in Southeast Asia. Against this backdrop, the study explores the dialogue and cooperative initiatives of two regions, which attach relatively little salience to each other. The study employs a NTS lens and draws upon the case of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98, the haze in relation to forest governance, the Bali bombings of 2002 and the political conflict in Aceh. The study assumes that these NTS issues can stimulate processes of threat convergence as well as threat ‘othering’. It argues that these processes enhance European engagement in Southeast Asia and contribute to shaping regional stability in Southeast Asia. Furthermore, NTS crises present situations, where norms can become unstable, contested and substituted. This allows us to better examine the EU as a normative actor. To establish an understanding of the EU’s actorness and the EU as a normative actor, the empirical evidence will focus on the threat perceptions, motivations of action and activities of the EU and its member states. For the purpose of differentiating the EU as a normative actor, the study will also include the discussion of the normative objectives and behaviours of the EU and its member states and apply a reflectivist theoretical framework. Hypothetically, NTS crises trigger external assistance and normative influence and thus, they offer an opportunity to establish a more nuanced picture of the EU in the region. At the same time, the study acknowledges that there are a variety of constraints and variables that complicate the EU’s actorness. The thesis seeks to identify and discuss these. So far, scholarly publications have failed to apply the NTS perspective systematically. This thesis provides the first monograph-length treatment of the EU in Southeast Asia through a NTS and reflectivist lens.

Southern European Countries have been hit by a crisis which has implied deep and fast mutations of the social and economical reality surrounding consumers. Therefore, the consumer himself has changed his vision, behavior, habits, values and beliefs towards the external environment. Thus, it is of crucial importance for companies’ marketing to understand and respond to the crisis correctly, not only focusing on the reorganization of the structural costs most are conducting, but also in the modifications on consumers’ attitude. This article allows us to understand more deeply the new consumer and how guilty appeals can reply in fulfilling their necessities. More precisely, it will focus on and discuss the use of financial guilt during crisis periods and how companies can take advantage of it. For this purpose, the results of an international research in Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece will be discussed.

Defence date: 30 April 2014
Examining Board: Professor Sven Steinmo, European University Institute (Supervisor) Professor Pepper Culpepper, European University Institute Professor Peter Englund, Stockholm School of Economics Professor Gunnar Trumbull, Harvard Business School.
Do nations learn from their financial crises? In addressing this question, this dissertation explores whether politicians, supervisors and bankers change their preferences towards financial markets when they recognize they have made significant mistakes in the recent past. It also asks whether such recognition of failure leads to a process of change in rules, policies and institutions, in different national contexts. In addressing this broader theoretical question, the dissertation focuses on the mortgage credit markets in advanced capitalist economies. Challenging the conventional approaches in political science and financial economics, it shows that the longitudinal and cross-sectional variations in mortgage credit markets can best be explained with reference to nations' different experiences of financial crisis. Borrowing insights from learning theory in political economy and public policy analysis, it argues specifically that those nations (i) that had severe financial crises in their recent past and (ii) that have coordinative institutions and elites, are more likely to draw lessons from their mistakes, and to change their policies, in order to avoid similar asset bubbles and financial crises in the future. This dissertation adopts a multi-method approach in examining the role of learning in the evolution of mortgage credit markets. A significant part traces the history of mortgage credit and financial crises in three countries, from a comparative perspective. Stressing a comparison between two institutionally similar countries, Sweden and Denmark, the dissertation shows how differences in the severity of crises may yield opposite outcomes in elite perceptions toward financial stability, and how they explain the differences in policy and market outcomes. On the other hand, comparing Sweden to Britain -two countries with similar crisis history but with different institutions- it stresses the positive role of coordinative institutions and coherent elites in translating the crisis experience into actual policy and institutional change. In addition to the comparative-historical analysis, the econometric parts of dissertation show that the inferences drawn from three cases can be generalized to a sample of 19 OECD countries. The results indicate that the countries with a negative experience of financial crisis in the early 1990s are more likely to have smaller mortgage markets in comparison to other countries, and that this effect is stronger in countries with coordinative economic and policy institutions.

In this dissertation, we study the relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) performance and Financial Distress, between 2007 and 2017 in a Southern European context. In order to assess this association, ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) Scores are used as proxies for CSR performance, while three different measures are employed in representation of Financial Distress levels, including Altman-Z Score. Based on sample of 115 publicly listed Southern European companies we find that firms with higher levels of positive CSR performance are less likely to fall into situations of Financial Distress. In addition, the results also remain robust after mitigating endogeneity through the use of the instrumental variable technique. Finally, the results evidence that three dimensions of ESG (Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance) have similar significant relationships with Financial Distress. Environmental and Corporate Governance performance are negatively linked with Financial Distress, however the contradictory results for Social Performance indicate that is not possible to establish a well-defined relationship between this ESG dimension and Financial Distress. In our context, we are able to conduct an investigation in a European region known for experiencing high levels of Financial Distress but also low levels of Corporate Social Responsibility, when compared with other European regions.
Nesta dissertação, estudamos a relação entre o desempenho da Responsabilidade Social Empresarial (RSE) e as Dificuldades Financeiras, entre 2007 e 2017 em um contexto Sul Europeu. Para avaliar esta associação as pontuações de ESG (Ambiental, Social e Governança Corporativa) são utilizados como representativos para o desempenho da RSE, enquanto três medidas diferentes são empregadas em representação dos níveis de Dificuldades Financeiras, incluindo o Altman-Z Score. Com base em uma amostra de 115 empresas Sul Europeias listadas publicamente, descobrimos que empresas com níveis mais altos de desempenho positivo em RSE têm menor probabilidade de cair em situações de Dificuldades Financeiras. Adicionalmente, os resultados permanecem robustos após mitigar a endogeneidade através do uso da técnica da variável instrumental. Por fim, os resultados evidenciam que as três dimensões de ESG revelam relações significativas semelhantes com as Dificuldades Financeiras. O desempenho Ambiental e o da Governança Corporativa estão negativamente relacionados com as Dificuldades Financeiras, porém os resultados contraditórios do desempenho Social indicam que não é possível estabelecer uma relação bem definida entre esta dimensão de ESG e as Dificuldades Financeiras. Neste contexto, somos capazes de realizar uma investigação em uma região Europeia, conhecida por altos níveis de Dificuldades Financeiras, como também, baixos níveis de Responsabilidade Social Empresarial, quando comparada com outras regiões europeias.

This paper explains the profitability gap between the better performing Nordic banks and their Southern European counterparts. The research, focused on the 2010-2017 period, ascertains that there are substantial differences in corporate governance mechanisms between the groups’ largest banks, but these either are non-significant or show mixed results when correlated with profitability. Additionally, the gap is partially explained by the higher Southern effective tax rates coupled with an increased focus on retail banking activity in the Nordics, but liquidity, proxied by total deposits over total assets, was found to positively influence profitability and to be higher in the South.