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1
Elgin, Ceyhun. « A THEORY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WITH ENDOGENOUS FERTILITY ». Macroeconomic Dynamics 16, no 5 (2 juin 2011) : 686–705. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100510000842.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In this paper I build a unified model of economic growth to account for the time-series evolution of output, fertility, and population in the industrialization of an economy. Specifically, I merge the unified growth models of Galor and Weil [American Economic Review 90 (2000), 806–828] and Hansen and Prescott [American Economic Review 92 (2002), 1205–1217] to capture the importance of human capital formation, fertility decline, and the transition from agriculture to industry in transition from stagnation to growth. Moreover, I also incorporate young adult mortality into the model. Initially, the aggregate human capital and return to education are low and the mortality rate is high; therefore parents invest in quantity of children. Once sufficient human capital is accumulated and mortality rates are reduced, thanks to increasing life expectancy, with the activation of the modern human capital–intensive sector, parents start to invest in the quality of their children. The simulation of the model economy improves upon the quantitative performance of the existing literature and successfully captures the evolution of fertility, population, and GDP in the British economy between 1750 and 2000.
2
Keane, Michael P. « Labor Supply and Taxes : A Survey ». Journal of Economic Literature 49, no 4 (1 décembre 2011) : 961–1075. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.49.4.961.
Texte intégralRésumé :
I survey the male and female labor supply literatures, focusing on implications for effects of wages and taxes. For males, I describe and contrast results from three basic types of model: static models (especially those that account for nonlinear taxes), life-cycle models with savings, and life-cycle models with both savings and human capital. For women, more important distinctions are whether models include fixed costs of work, and whether they treat demographics like fertility and marriage (and human capital) as exogenous or endogenous. The literature is characterized by considerable controversy over the responsiveness of labor supply to changes in wages and taxes. At least for males, it is fair to say that most economists believe labor supply elasticities are small. But a sizable minority of studies that I examine obtain large values. Hence, there is no clear consensus on this point. In fact, a simple average of Hicks elasticities across all the studies I examine is 0.31. Several simulation studies have shown that such a value is large enough to generate large efficiency costs of income taxation. For males, I conclude that two factors drive many of the differences in results across studies. One factor is use of direct versus ratio wage measures, with studies that use the former tending to find larger elasticities. Another factor is the failure of most studies to account for human capital returns to work experience. I argue that this may lead to downward bias in elasticity estimates. In a model that includes human capital, I show how even modest elasticities—as conventionally measured—can be consistent with large efficiency costs of taxation. For women, in contrast, it is fair to say that most studies find large labor supply elasticities, especially on the participation margin. In particular, I find that estimates of “long-run” labor supply elasticities—by which I mean estimates that allow for dynamic effects of wages on fertility, marriage, education and work experience—are generally quite large. (JEL D91, J13, J16, J22, J31, H24)
3
Topalli, Margerita, Meri Papavangjeli, Silvester Ivanaj et Blerta Ferra. « The Impact of Foreign Direct Investments on Poverty Reduction in the Western Balkans ». Economics 15, no 1 (1 janvier 2021) : 129–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/econ-2021-0008.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract This article empirically examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on poverty in six Western Balkan countries and also considers other country characteristics, such as the human development index (HDI), corruption, investment freedom, economic freedom, trade openness, and fertility. The work presents estimations based on a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator for panel data models with fixed effects during the period from 2002 to 2021. Our results show that FDI has significantly contributed to poverty reduction in the Western Balkan countries. However, attention should be paid to where and how FDI takes place as these investments should be directed at the productive sectors of the economy, thus leading to a higher impact on poverty and inequality. The study also finds that policies and institutions that support a country’s economic freedom and openness are imperative for poverty reduction. In addition, poverty reduction in the Western Balkan region can be achieved through measures that contribute to the improvement of HDI and strengthen institutions to combat corruption. Nevertheless, the empirical results of the paper are subject to a number of drawbacks, such as the limited number of observations and the considerable amount of missing data, some of which is probably questionable, a phenomenon that is quite common for developing countries.
4
Kim Yen, Wun, Ratneswary Rasiah et Jason James Turner. « An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility : International Evidence ». Journal of International Business, Economics and Entrepreneurship 3, no 1 (30 juin 2018) : 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.24191/jibe.v3i1.14434.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This study aims to analyse the socio and macroeconomic determinants of fertility in 108 countries across the globe. Focusing on the variables of inflation, income, education level and urbanization, this study employs the cross-sectional econometrics technique of Ordinary Least Squares to analyse the causal relationship between these variables and fertility. The empirical results reveal a significant and negative relationship between income and fertility in the overall model of the 108 countries, as well as in the models involving developing countries, and countries in the African, American and Asian regions. Education was found to also have a significant and negative relationship with fertility in the overall model and the developing countries. Urbanisation, on the other hand, was found to have a significant and positive relationship with fertility in the overall model, developing countries and in countries in the African and Asian regions. Inflation was the only predictor found to be not significant in all the models. As far as the least developed countries, developed countries and the countries in the European region were concerned, none of the independent variables were significant predictors of fertility. The study concludes with an examination of policy implications of the findings
5
Hozer, Józef, et Mariusz Doszyń. « Econometric Models of Propensities ». Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia 6, no 1 (1 janvier 2007) : 15–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10031-007-0008-1.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Econometric Models of Propensities Human being is one of the most important sources of causative forces of events that assemble economical processes. Working out the effective tools that enable measurement of the impact of people on socio-economic processes is necessary in analyzing, troubleshooting and forecasting. In the article the issues of calculating propensities by means of properly specified econometrics models were presented. The definition of propensity was introduced. Questions connected with topic of propensities were presented in context of concepts promoted by Szczecin school of econometrics (pentagon of sources of causative forces, types of relationships in economics, geometric interpretation of personality, broom of events). Econometric models, useful in analyzing propensities, were classified on primary models, econometrics models of average propensities and econometrics models of marginal propensities. Connections between the models were described. Settlement of analytical shapes of characterized models was mentioned. In an empirical example the presented methods were used to analyze average and marginal propensity to consumption of alcoholic beverages and tobacco in the households of employees in manual labour positions in Poland in years 1993-2005.
6
Barbieri, Laura. « Causality and interdependence analysis in linear econometric models with an application to fertility ». Journal of Applied Statistics 40, no 8 (août 2013) : 1701–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2013.793660.
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7
Haque, Ismail, Dipendra Nath Das et Priyank Pravin Patel. « Reading the geography of India’s district-level fertility differentials : a spatial econometric approach ». Journal of Biosocial Science 51, no 5 (8 août 2019) : 745–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021932019000087.
Texte intégralRésumé :
AbstractIndia has gradually progressed into fertility transition over the last few decades. However, the timing and pace of this transition has varied notably in terms of both its geography and the demographic groups most affected by it. While much literature exists on the relationships between fertility level and its influence on demographic, economic, socio-cultural and policy-related factors, the potential spatial variations in the effects of these factors on the fertility level remain unaddressed. Using the most recent district-level census data (of 2011) for India, this nationwide study has identified plausible spatial dependencies and heterogeneities in the relationships between the district-wise Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) and their respective demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors. After developing a geocoded database for 621 districts of India, spatial regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were used to decipher location-based relationships between the district-level TFR and its driving forces. The results revealed that the relationships between the district-level TFR and the considered selected predictors (percentage of Muslims, urbanization, caste group, female mean age at marriage, female education, females in the labour force, net migration, sex ratio at birth and exposure to mass media) were not spatially invariant in terms of their respective strength, magnitude and direction, and furthermore, these relationships were conspicuously place- and context-specific. This study suggests that such locality-based variations and their complexities cannot be explained simply by a single narrative of either socioeconomic advancement or government policy interventions. It therefore contributes to the ongoing debate on fertility research in India by highlighting the spatial dependence and heterogeneity of the impacts made by demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors on local fertility levels. From a methodological perspective, the study also discerns that the GWR local model performs better, in terms of both model performance and prediction accuracy, compared with the conventional global model estimates.
8
Sakhbetdinova, Kamilya. « Determinants of fertility in Russian families ». Moscow University Economics Bulletin 2020, no 6 (30 décembre 2020) : 104–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.38050/01300105202066.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Competent demographic policy implies an understanding by the state of the economic, social, and demographic processes taking place in society. In earlier Russian and foreign studies, the authors found a number of fertility factors, however, the direction of influence of such determinants could be opposite. Aware of the special influence of sociocultural attitudes and values of the population on the number of children in a family, the author made an attempt to identify the determinants of fertility based on an empirical study of the World Values Survey. Using statistical and econometric methods, models that reflect the determinants of fertility in modern Russia were constructed. This work revealed a positive effect on the birth rate of religiosity, traditional views and the importance of the family for the respondent. Inversely related to the number of children in a family such factors as the level of education of the population and the value of leisure.
9
Shankar Singh, Ajay. « Human Fertility Behavior Through Birth Interval Models : Overview ». American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics 5, no 3 (2016) : 132. http://dx.doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20160503.18.
Texte intégral
10
Ismagilova, Larisa, et Elvira Arylbaeva. « Labor productivity management : cognitive models of contradictions ». Vestnik BIST (Bashkir Institute of Social Technologies), no 2(55) (30 juin 2022) : 154–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.47598/2078-9025-2022-2-55-154-161.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The analysis of the research, demonstrating the interrelation between the efficiency of human resources management and economic results of the enterprise has been conducted. Causal relationship between human resource management and productivity is shown. Contradictions in the formation of human and labor resources are revealed. The defining role of human capital in the structure of intangible resources. The procedure of substantiation of the choice of HR-practices that involves the construction of a generalized cognitive model of the impact of intangible resources on productivity was formed. The structure of the system of labor productivity management is developed. The structure of the blocks of imitation model on the basis of econometric research data, the procedure of selection of the most important HR-factors is proposed. The possibility of substantiating the choice of control actions based on modeling results is shown. Causal scheme of labor productivity management through intangible resources of industrial enterprise is proposed. A set of econometric models built on the basis of generalization of empirical research and statistical data of specific enterprises was used to develop the model.
11
Oaxaca, Ronald L., et Michael Ransom. « Using Econometric Models for Intrafirm Equity Salary Adjustments ». Journal of Economic Inequality 1, no 3 (décembre 2003) : 221–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/b:joei.0000004588.24934.81.
Texte intégral
12
Nickayin, Samaneh Sadat, Francesco Chelli, Rosario Turco, Bogdana Nosova, Chara Vavoura et Luca Salvati. « Economic Downturns, Urban Growth and Suburban Fertility in a Mediterranean Context ». Economies 10, no 10 (12 octobre 2022) : 252. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies10100252.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Despite the wealth of micro–macro data on short-term demographic dynamics, the impact of metropolitan growth and economic downturns on local fertility is still under-investigated in advanced economies. Recent studies in low-fertility contexts have assumed suburban birth rates as being systematically higher than urban and rural rates. This assumption (hereafter, known as the ‘suburban fertility hypothesis’) was grounded on stylized facts and spatial regularities that imply a significant role of both macro (contextual) and micro (behavioral) factors positively influencing fertility in suburban locations. To verify such a hypothesis from a macro (contextual) perspective, the present study compares the general fertility rate of urban, suburban, and rural settlements of the Athens’ metropolitan region (Greece) at various observation years between 1860 and 2020. Long-term Athens’ growth represented a sort of ‘quasi-experiment’ for Mediterranean Europe, linking sequential urban stages and distinctive waves of economic expansion and recession. Using multivariate exploratory analysis and global/local econometric models, a dominant ‘rural’ fertility regime was recorded for 1860 and 1884. A characteristic ‘urban’ fertility regime was, instead, found over a relatively long, intermediate period between 1956 and 1990. Higher fertility in suburban settlements (10 km away from downtown Athens, on average) was, finally, observed since 2000. Considering a sufficiently long-time interval, the existence of multiple fertility regimes along the distance gradient has demonstrated how fertility dynamics are intrinsically bonded with metropolitan growth, economic downturns, and social transformations in Mediterranean Europe.
13
Coale, Ansley. « G. M. Farooq and G. B. Simmons (eels.). Fertility in Developing Countries. London : The MacMillan Press (for the International Labour Office). 1985. xXiii + 533 pp. » Pakistan Development Review 26, no 1 (1 mars 1987) : 119–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v26i1pp.119-120.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In 1972 the United Nations Fund for Population Activities initiated support for a programme of research within the International Labour Organization on population and employment. Determinants of fertility have been a major theme in this research programme, as is evident in an earlier Progress Report on the programme [3]. The book here reviewed is an attempt to distil some general conclusions from this research, and to present ideas and evidence not included in the 1982 publication. The first section of the book contains a summary of theories of fertility determination; a brief description of the findings of empirical research on fertility, and of the problems of empirical research on the economics of fertility; some comments on the relevance for policy of research on the economics of fertility; and some suggestions for more fruitful research strategies. The second part deals with selected methodological problems: the definition and measurement of fertility; econometric problems of analysing cross-sectional and time-series data; estimation and interpretation of aggregate data; specification and estimation of models fertility; and the uses of simulation techniques in studying the effects of economic policy on fertility. As this list of topics indicates, the emphasis in this section (and in most of the book) is on research on fertility by economists. The last chapter in the second section, however, describes anthropological approaches to the study of fertility. The final section contains six case studies on Kenya, Nigeria, rural India, rural Turkey, Yugoslavia, and a comparative study of Costa Rica and Mexico.
14
Kolk, Martin, Daniel Cownden et Magnus Enquist. « Correlations in fertility across generations : can low fertility persist ? » Proceedings of the Royal Society B : Biological Sciences 281, no 1779 (22 mars 2014) : 20132561. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.2561.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Correlations in family size across generations could have a major influence on human population size in the future. Empirical studies have shown that the associations between the fertility of parents and the fertility of children are substantial and growing over time. Despite their potential long-term consequences, intergenerational fertility correlations have largely been ignored by researchers. We present a model of the fertility transition as a cultural process acting on new lifestyles associated with fertility. Differences in parental and social influences on the acquisition of these lifestyles result in intergenerational correlations in fertility. We show different scenarios for future population size based on models that disregard intergenerational correlations in fertility, models with fertility correlations and a single lifestyle, and models with fertility correlations and multiple lifestyles. We show that intergenerational fertility correlations will result in an increase in fertility over time. However, present low-fertility levels may persist if the rapid introduction of new cultural lifestyles continues into the future.
15
Davia, María A., et Nuria Legazpe. « Decisiones laborales de las mujeres casadas o cohabitantes en España ». Studies of Applied Economics 30, no 3 (7 juin 2020) : 1065. http://dx.doi.org/10.25115/eea.v30i3.3618.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants of employment decisions (entry and exit from employment) of married or cohabiting women in Spain. We use the Fertility, Family and Values Survey of 2006, conducted by the Sociological Research Centre in 2006. The econometric technique deployed consists in different discrete-time duration models using Meyer’s application (Meyer, 1990) to Prentice-Gloeckler model (1978) that enables control for unobserved heterogeneity. The results show, among other things, that highly educated women and women from more recent cohorts are more likely to (re-)enter the labour market after marriage. Mothers of small children are more likely to exit employment than non-mothers.
16
Басовский, Leonid Basovskiy, Басовская et Elena Basovskaya. « Russian Regions’ Economy Research : Econometric Approach ». Economics 2, no 2 (17 avril 2014) : 13–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/3648.
Texte intégralRésumé :
It is proposed a research program related to studying of economic development
of regions and country as a whole. It is suggested to build econometric models
of influence of factors which are able to affect indicators characterizing the
economic development. For this purpose it is proposed to use cross-sectional
data of the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia by region .On the basis of
obtained models it is possible to get partial regression equations. From these
equations it has been obtained equations for partial coefficients of influence of
studied factors by region. A use of described techniques has allowed estimate
an influence of capital-labor ratio, human capital, new technologies and private
property institution on labor efficiency in Russia. A higher education expansion
influence on salary level in Russia has been estimated. Estimates of private
property expansion influence on labor efficiency in the regions of Russia have
been obtained. Using these estimates it is possible to accomplish a costeffectiveness
analysis related to management of factors affecting the economic
development of country regions.
17
Dhar, Soma. « Economic Development and Female Labor Force Participation in Bangladesh : A Test of the U-Shaped Hypothesis ». Journal of South Asian Studies 8, no 3 (23 décembre 2020) : 99–111. http://dx.doi.org/10.33687/jsas.008.03.3826.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The study aims to explain the relationship between economic development measured by GDP per capita on PPP and female labor force participation rate (FLFPR) in Bangladesh. Using Time series data from (1991-2019), extracted from secondary data sources; the study develops three models to test the U-shape hypothesis. The study uses control variables such as Female Unemployment rate, Fertility rate, and Urbanization. The Ordinary Least Square Regression Analysis is used to run the regression by using Econometric Software STATA (version12.0). The regression result indicates that the Female unemployment rate has a positive impact on FLFPR. Fertility rate and Urbanization have a negative effect. There is a significant impact of the quadratic GDP per capita PPP on FLFPR. The overall results of this paper suggest that a U-shape does not exist in Bangladesh. The research investigates an upward pattern in the female labor force participation rate by measuring the relationship between economic growth and female labor force participation rate in Bangladesh.
18
Комарова et Anna Komarova. « Human Capital Influence on Labor Productivity in Far Eastern Federal District ». Economics 3, no 1 (16 février 2015) : 48–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/7812.
Texte intégralRésumé :
A technique based on development of econometric models related to labor
productivity in regions of the Far Eastern Federal District of Russia has been
realized. It has been shown that such a factor as an employed population’s
education level is the important one in determining the labor productivity in the
regions of the Far Eastern Federal District of Russia.
19
Rodgers, Joseph Lee, David E. Bard et Warren B. Miller. « Multivariate Cholesky Models of Human Female Fertility Patterns in the NLSY ». Behavior Genetics 37, no 2 (5 janvier 2007) : 345–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10519-006-9137-9.
Texte intégral
20
Комарова et Anna Komarova. « Human Capital and Labor Productivity in the North-West Federal District of Russia ». Economics 2, no 6 (17 décembre 2014) : 12–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/6728.
Texte intégralRésumé :
A technique based on implementing of labor productivity’s econometric models
in regions of the North-West Federal District of Russia has been realized. It has
been shown that such a factor as employed population’s education level is
significant in labor productivity determining in the regions of the North-West
Federal District of Russia.
21
Zheng, Xing You, et Peng Wang. « Research on the Effects of the Geographical Adjacency and Informatization Level on Input and Output of Regional Innovation - Based on a Spatial Econometrical Analysis of the 21 Cities in Guangdong Province ». Advanced Engineering Forum 6-7 (septembre 2012) : 459–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/aef.6-7.459.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Based on the diffusing theories of knowledge, this paper uses the data between 2006-2008 of the 21 cities in Guangdong province to conduct the exploratory data analysis, constructs the input-output model of innovation which take the informatization level of a region into account, and uses the common econometric model and spatial econometric models based on geographical adjacency between two regions, then compared the estimation results of these models. The systematic analysis shows that the innovation output of the 21cities is spatially correlated to each other, the result of the econometric model considered about the adjacency element is more precise than the common one, the accumulation of capital for innovation is the domain engine of innovation creating, the input of human and the enhancement of informatization level stimulate innovation weakly. However, when take the informatization level into account, the results of the new model are more precise. Based on the empirical research, this paper proposes several policy recommendations.
22
Gonul, Dilcu, et Gulden Erkut. « Why do Skilled People Migrate to Cities ? A Spatial Econometric Analysis for Understanding the Impact of the Social Environment on the Attraction of Human Capital to Cities in Turkey ». European Spatial Research and Policy 26, no 1 (11 juillet 2019) : 127–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.18778/1231-1952.26.1.07.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The main focus of this study is on understanding the importance of social dynamics of cities for attracting human capital to urban regions. The principal research question of the article is “if there is a spatial dependency on neighbouring provinces’ social environmental qualities in human capital attraction for Turkey.” It is believed that developmental disparities among regions can be overcome with a balanced distribution of human capital. In this article, first the concept and importance of human capital and its evolution throughout economic history are explained in order to emphasize the relationship between development and human capital for urban regions. The literature review consists of migration models developed and used in previous studies and recent literature that together consider human capital and its flow with spatial analysis. A review of migration models helps structure the quantitative models’ building blocks, or the concepts to be quantified. Literature that discusses human capital and spatial analysis, at the same time, guides the study in implementing the most appropriate analysis technique. The literature discussed in the paper is focused on human capital migration and urban attractiveness. Its similarity with the current study work is the focus on the relationship between urban environment components and human capital. However, the cited studies lack the “spatial/relational” approach to urban regions which means that the effects of developments in settlements neighbouring the region were ignored. The contribution which we intend to make with the current study is to adapt the spatial econometric analysis to the problem of human capital attraction. Literature review is followed by data used in the empirical part of the study, and brief information on spatial econometric analysis. Next, findings of the empirical spatial econometric analysis of Turkey’s 81 urban regions are provided. Overall, the analysis indicated that undergraduate and post-graduate migrants care about the social prosperity of the neighbouring environment of destination province. The last part concludes with an interpretation of empirical study findings and discusses relevant urban and regional policy instruments.
23
Langhammer, Martina, Marten Michaelis, Andreas Hoeflich, Alexander Sobczak, Jennifer Schoen et Joachim M. Weitzel. « High-fertility phenotypes : two outbred mouse models exhibit substantially different molecular and physiological strategies warranting improved fertility ». REPRODUCTION 147, no 4 (avril 2014) : 427–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1530/rep-13-0425.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Animal models are valuable tools in fertility research. Worldwide, there are more than 400 transgenic or knockout mouse models available showing a reproductive phenotype; almost all of them exhibit an infertile or at least subfertile phenotype. By contrast, animal models revealing an improved fertility phenotype are barely described. This article summarizes data on two outbred mouse models exhibiting a ‘high-fertility’ phenotype. These mouse lines were generated via selection over a time period of more than 40 years and 161 generations. During this selection period, the number of offspring per litter and the total birth weight of the entire litter nearly doubled. Concomitantly with the increased fertility phenotype, several endocrine parameters (e.g. serum testosterone concentrations in male animals), physiological parameters (e.g. body weight, accelerated puberty, and life expectancy), and behavioral parameters (e.g. behavior in an open field and endurance fitness on a treadmill) were altered. We demonstrate that the two independently bred high-fertility mouse lines warranted their improved fertility phenotype using different molecular and physiological strategies. The fertility lines display female- as well as male-specific characteristics. These genetically heterogeneous mouse models provide new insights into molecular and cellular mechanisms that enhance fertility. In view of decreasing fertility in men, these models will therefore be a precious information source for human reproductive medicine.Translated abstractA German translation of abstract is freely available athttp://www.reproduction-online.org/content/147/4/427/suppl/DC1.
24
Kuzmin, Peter, Vitaliy Kalashnikov, Natalyia Kalashnykova et Junzo Watada. « The Great Depression : Econometric Analysis and Fuzzy Regression ». Journal of Advanced Computational Intelligence and Intelligent Informatics 24, no 6 (20 novembre 2020) : 785–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jaciii.2020.p0785.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The study examines the period of the Great Depression and analyzes several measures taken by the US President Roosevelt’s government that allowed the country to get out of the crisis. An analysis and proof of the correctness of the measures chosen to exit from the crisis was conducted using econometric models and the use of statistics. Techniques for overcoming crises are relevant for all countries. This study adapts an innovative perspective in that it used the sequence of the Cobb–Douglas type function including different types of factors, and applied fuzzy regression methods.
25
Lawson, David W., et Ruth Mace. « Parental investment and the optimization of human family size ». Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B : Biological Sciences 366, no 1563 (12 février 2011) : 333–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0297.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Human reproductive behaviour is marked by exceptional variation at the population and individual level. Human behavioural ecologists propose adaptive hypotheses to explain this variation as shifting phenotypic optima in relation to local socioecological niches. Here we review evidence that variation in fertility (offspring number), in both traditional and modern industrialized populations, represents optimization of the life-history trade-off between reproductive rate and parental investment. While a reliance on correlational methods suggests the true costs of sibling resource competition are often poorly estimated, a range of anthropological and demographic studies confirm that parents balance family size against offspring success. Evidence of optimization is less forthcoming. Declines in fertility associated with modernization are particularly difficult to reconcile with adaptive models, because fertility limitation fails to enhance offspring reproductive success. Yet, considering alternative measures, we show that modern low fertility confers many advantages on offspring, which are probably transmitted to future generations. Evidence from populations that have undergone or initiated demographic transition indicate that these rewards to fertility limitation fall selectively on relatively wealthy individuals. The adaptive significance of modern reproductive behaviour remains difficult to evaluate, but may be best understood in response to rising investment costs of rearing socially and economically competitive offspring.
26
Комарова, Anna Komarova, Кальянов et Aleksandr Kalyanov. « Human Capital and Labor Productivity in North Caucasian Federal District of Russia ». Economics 3, no 1 (16 février 2015) : 31–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/7810.
Texte intégralRésumé :
A technique based on Russia regions’ economic development analysis (on the
example of human capital and labor productivity in the North Caucasian Federal
District of Russia) by means of creation of econometric models related to labor
productivity in regions of the North Caucasian Federal District of Russia has
been realized. It has been shown that such a factor as an employed population’s
education level is the important one in determining the labor productivity in the
regions of the North Caucasian Federal District of Russia.
27
Lawson, David W., Alexandra Alvergne et Mhairi A. Gibson. « The life-history trade-off between fertility and child survival ». Proceedings of the Royal Society B : Biological Sciences 279, no 1748 (3 octobre 2012) : 4755–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2012.1635.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Evolutionary models of human reproduction argue that variation in fertility can be understood as the local optimization of a life-history trade-off between offspring quantity and ‘quality’. Child survival is a fundamental dimension of quality in these models as early-life mortality represents a crucial selective bottleneck in human evolution. This perspective is well-rehearsed, but current literature presents mixed evidence for a trade-off between fertility and child survival, and little empirical ground to evaluate how socioecological and individual characteristics influence the benefits of fertility limitation. By compiling demographic survey data, we demonstrate robust negative relationships between fertility and child survival across 27 sub-Saharan African countries. Our analyses suggest this relationship is primarily accounted for by offspring competition for parental investment, rather than by reverse causal mechanisms. We also find that the trade-off increases in relative magnitude as national mortality declines and maternal somatic (height) and extrasomatic (education) capital increase. This supports the idea that socioeconomic development, and associated reductions in extrinsic child mortality, favour reduced fertility by increasing the relative returns to parental investment. Observed fertility, however, falls considerably short of predicted optima for maximizing total offspring survivorship, strongly suggesting that additional unmeasured costs of reproduction ultimately constrain the evolution of human family size.
28
Kucher, Anatolii. « Soil fertility, financial support, and sustainable competitiveness : evidence from Ukraine ». Agricultural and Resource Economics : International Scientific E-Journal 6, no 2 (20 juin 2020) : 5–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.51599/are.2020.06.02.01.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Purpose. The purpose of this paper was to highlight the results of the study of the influence of the soil fertility and financial support on the formation of sustainable competitiveness of Ukrainian agricultural enterprises.
Methodology / approach. To achieve the purpose, we used such methods: correlation analysis (to identify and assess the close relationship between the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils, financial support per hectare, and the sustainable competitiveness); econometric modeling (to develop a mathematical model of the dependence of the subindex of competitiveness by the yield on the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and the financial support per hectare); economic-statistical and monographic (for the assessment and analysis of the influence of the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and financial support per hectare on the formation of sustainable competitiveness); abstract-and-logical (for generalization and analysis of the research results); graphical (for the visual representation of the revealed dependencies). The study was performed on a selected sample of agricultural enterprises of districts of Kharkiv, Volyn and Chernihiv region, which represent all the soil-climatic zones of Ukraine. The time range of this research covers the years 2010–2016. The database of the 189 observations in Kharkiv region, 93 – in Volyn region and 88 – in Chernihiv region was as the empirical basis.
Results. This paper presents empirical evidence for the impact of the soil fertility and financial support on the formation of sustainable competitiveness of enterprises. The obtained results prove the hypothesis of a positive relationship between the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils, financial support per hectare, and the sustainable competitiveness of subjects, however, the level of impact of soil fertility differs significantly in different soil-climatic conditions. It is shown that soil fertility and financial support can sometimes act as substitutes, for example, in a zone of insufficient moisture or low soil fertility. Increasing the financial support for agricultural production per hectare may be a strategy to increase productivity when soils are less fertile.
Originality / scientific novelty. For the first time, one- and two-factor linear and quadratic econometric models were developed, which made it possible to carry out quantitative assessment of the impact of the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and the financial support per hectare on the formation of the subindex of competitiveness by the yield in various soil-climatic zones of Ukraine. The provision on the formation of the subindex of competitiveness by the yield under the conditions of the economic law of diminishing returns, was further developed.
Practical value / implications. The main results of the study can be used for (i) estimation and forecasting of the level of competitiveness depending on the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and the financial support per hectare; (ii) determining the effect of measures to improve the soil fertility on the competitiveness; (iii) determining the impact of soil degradation on competitiveness of agribusiness entities; (iv) identification of reserves to improve competitiveness.
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Majewski, Sebastian, Waldemar Tarczynski et Malgorzata Tarczynska-Luniewska. « Measuring investors’ emotions using econometric models of trading volume of stock exchange indexes ». Investment Management and Financial Innovations 17, no 3 (30 septembre 2020) : 281–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(3).2020.21.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Traditional finance explains all human activity on the ground of rationality and suggests all decisions are rational because all current information is reflected in the prices of goods. Unfortunately, the development of information technology and a growth of demand for new, attractive possibilities of investment caused the process of searching new, unique signals supporting investment decisions. Such a situation is similar to risk-taking, so it must elicit the emotional reactions of individual traders.The paper aims to verify the question that the market risk may be the determinant of traders’ emotions, and if volatility is a useful tool during the investment process as the measure of traders’ optimism, similarly to Majewski’s work (2019). Likewise, various econometric types of models of estimation of the risk parameter were used in the research: classical linear using OLS, general linear using FGLS, and GARCH(p, q) models using maximum likelihood method. Hypotheses were verified using the data collected from the most popular world stock exchanges: New York, Frankfurt, Tokyo, and London. Data concerned stock exchange indexes such as SP500, DAX, Nikkei, and UK100.
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BARANOVA, Nina M., Sergei N. LARIN et Dar'ya S. LOGINOVA. « Modeling the influence of intellectual potential on innovative development of PAO Aeroflot – Russian Airlines ». Economic Analysis : Theory and Practice 20, no 10 (29 octobre 2021) : 1897–913. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/ea.20.10.1897.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Subject. The article investigates the innovative development of Aeroflot Group and analyzes the impact of factors of intellectual potential. Objectives. The purpose is to investigate the development of intellectual potential of Aeroflot Group by selected indicators, determine their impact on the innovative development of the company, and increase its competitiveness. Methods. We studied the works of Russian and foreign scientists, performed a regression analysis and econometric modeling on the basis of statistical data from the annual reports of Aeroflot Group for 2005–2020. To create econometric models, we applied the tools of the EViews 12 software package. Results. We built econometric models to study and forecast the innovative development of Aeroflot Group, given the influence of intellectual potential factors. The analysis of these models showed that the linear model is adequate and can be used in the practical activities of Aeroflot Group. The exponential model parameters and estimates proved to be insignificant, so it cannot be used for the research. Conclusions. The long-term economic growth of the country and its innovative development depend directly on such factors of intellectual potential as human capital, personnel skills (number and quality of labor force), increase in expertise and labor productivity, availability of social incentives. Therefore, the focus of national projects implementation in Russia is on accelerated innovative development of the country, using the factors of intellectual potential of enterprises and creating conditions for the growth of its quality and social incentives.
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Tkach, E. S., M. A. Firsova et D. A. Fedotov. « Assessment of the Impact of Local Budgets on Regional Human Capital:Historical and Contemporary Aspects ». Economy of regions 18, no 1 (2022) : 237–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-1-17.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Considering the need for sustainable human capital development in Russia, as well as interdisciplinary research challenges, the present study examines historical and contemporary aspects of the impact of the budget on regional human capital. For this purpose, budgetary mechanisms implemented in the period from 1969 to 2020 were retrospectively analysed. Based on archival materials and data from statistical collections of the Soviet period, the dynamics and structure of budget revenues and expenditures in the 1970s were compared with those in the period from 2000 to 2017. A quantitative assessment was performed to test a hypothesis about a relationship between the volume of social budget expenditures and increase in the return on human capital in the form of tax revenues to the budget. The study employed methods of comparative, structural, correlation and econometric analysis and statistical grouping. Constructed econometric models demonstrated the nature and degree of influence of various social expenditures on the resulting indicator of human capital development. Then, comparative analysis was conducted to interpret the econometric modelling results and data on the state of local budgets in the Soviet and post-Soviet period. Taking into account the established relationship between social expenditures and the indicator of human capital development, public authorities can most efficiently allocate budget funds, ensuring the maximum socio-economic effect from their investment. The research findings can be used for creating socio-economic development strategies of particular regions, as well as for comparing their social development in the historical and geographical context. In this regard, future studies can systematically assess the impact of local budgets of the largest Russian regions on the resulting indicators of human capital.
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Barbosa, Natália. « Portuguese farming firms´ growth : do human capital and managerial capabilities matter ? » New Medit 19, no 1 (10 avril 2020) : 101–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.30682/nm2001g.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This paper examines the underlying factors that might shape firm’s growth in the farming sector. In par-ticular, we investigate the effects of human capital and managerial capabilities on growth of Portuguese farming firms during 2003-2007. Relying on econometric models that control for survivorship bias, the results indicate that younger and top-educated employees are likely to foster farming firm’s growth. On the other hand, the effect of managerial capabilities appears to be somewhat weak on firms without separation between ownership and management. The flexibility to hire specialised and multidisciplinary management teams with managerial capabilities appears to yield economic payoffs on the farming sector.
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Sánchez-Cubo, Francisco, José Mondéjar-Jiménez, Alejandro García-Pozo et Mauro Maltagliati. « Keep It Simple : A Methodological Discussion of Wage Inequalities in the Spanish Hospitality Industry ». Mathematics 11, no 5 (27 février 2023) : 1163. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math11051163.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Human capital in hospitality has been widely addressed by applying sophisticated econometric methods. However, for the Spanish case, there was a gap in the analyses as the crucial importance of collective agreements was undervalued. This paper redesigns the conceptualisation of the variables and applies a subsequent new classification to job positions, as it deals with the outliers at different levels of rigorousness. Then, linearised and quantile regressions were run for each case, obtaining an outcome of thirty values for each variable. The analyses and comparisons show the high importance of collective agreements on salaries, the noticeable low values of human capital variables, and provides additional information for the nationality and gender gaps, the latter strikingly high in upper professional categories. Overall, this paper demonstrates the importance of a proper study design to prevent advanced econometric models from falling into bias and it minimises the differences between methods.
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Tikhomirov, N. P., et T. M. Tikhomirova. « ASSESSING AND MANAGING THE REPRODUCTION POTENTIAL OF RUSSIA ». Federalism, no 3 (16 septembre 2019) : 51–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.21686/2073-1051-2019-3-51-71.
Texte intégralRésumé :
At present Russian Federation in a whole and most of its regions face the problem of justifying the social and economic policy, that ensures the shift from prolonged depopulation to the regime of expanded reproduction of the population. The proposed methodology for such a justification is based on the designing the econometric models, that describe the patterns of objective indicators of population’s natural movement intensity, depending on the main “material” factors, determining the characteristics of its demographic behavior (standard of living, health care expenditures, payments for children, etc.). As such indicators, it is proposed to use the marginal growth rate or its refined modifications, which are calculated only on the basis of sex-age-specific fertility and mortality rates and do not depend on changes in age structures. Such marginal indicators more reliably characterize the potential of self-reproduction of the population in comparison to the total and standardized fertility and mortality rates, commonly used in demography and corresponding to them population growth rates. The paper presents estimates of the marginal rates of natural movement of the Russian population in 1990—2017, which indicate, that the decline in the potential of demographic self-reproduction in the last decade of the 20th century in Russia was quite significant, and the rate of its recovery in the 21st century was not high enough, thus, as a consequence, by 2017 the country had not yet shifted to the regime of expanded reproduction, although in some of its regions such a regime had already been established in 2007—2012. The econometric model, presented in the work, reflecting the dependence of the marginal growth rate of Russian population on the standard of living and the expenditures on demographic policy measures, shows that the shift of the country as a whole to the regime of sustainable extended demographic self-reproduction is possible by 2025—2030, subject to a 2—3% annual increase in the levels of these factors.
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Gaweł, Krzysztof. « The amount of fair remuneration determined on the basis of the theory of measuring human capital ». INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH AND REVIEW 17 (30 décembre 2018) : 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.52756/ijerr.2018.v17.001.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The aim of the article is to compare the amount of remuneration expected by employees with the salary determined on the basis of the economic constant of potential growth. Using the theory of human capital, we are able to carry out a research consisting in a combination of remuneration resulting from the minimum wage. To achieve this, an econometric model containing three variables is introduced – the experience factor [Q(T)], the component of maintenance costs [K] and the cost element of education [E]. For the sake of clarity, individual measurement models of human capital are presented along with models of fair remuneration. The obtained results prove that the model of human capital presented in the study can be used to determine the level of fair wage.
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Cosma, Ioana Gabriela, Katalin Gabriela David, Daniela Antonescu, Florin Cornel Dumiter et Ștefania Amalia Jimon. « The Correlation Between CO2 Emissions and GDP in a Sustainable Development Framework Using Kuznets Environment Curve ». Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series 30, no 4 (1 décembre 2020) : 1–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/sues-2020-0022.
Texte intégralRésumé :
AbstractAfter 1990, the problem of finding econometric models to assess the influence of economic development on the environment becomes a global goal, a central element of regional, national and Community policies. A perception on the evolution of global climate change and on the impact of human activity on them has been determined by the hypothesis that in the early stages of economic development, pollution and incomes are growing almost simultaneously, and beyond a certain level of incomes, the trend is reversing, therefore at high levels of incomes and economic growth occur improvements in environmental conditions. In this paper, we aim to analyze the relationship between the level of pollution (CO2 emissions) and revenues (GDP per capita) using the Kuznets Environmental Curve (EKC). To apply the econometric model, two indicators were used: CO2 emissions and GDP per capita, using a panel analysis for the period 2000 - 2016, which included 31 European countries and 527 observations. The article contributes to the development of econometric applications based on panel data and the Kuznets Environmental Curve.
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Mohammadi, Hosein, Samira Shayanmehr et Juan D. Borrero. « Does Freedom Matter for Sustainable Economic Development ? New Evidence from Spatial Econometric Analysis ». Mathematics 11, no 1 (28 décembre 2022) : 145. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math11010145.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Achieving sustainable economic development is always considered one of the main economic goals of countries. Therefore, researchers are interested in presenting new econometric models for more accurate identification of factors affecting economic growth. The current study evaluates the impact of various aspects of freedom (economic freedom, press freedom, civil freedom, and political rights) and an aggregated freedom index on economic growth in European countries from 2000 to 2019 using spatial panel econometric techniques. In addition, the effects of variables such as FDI, financial development (FD), human capital (HC), and capital stock on economic growth are examined. The findings of this research confirm the existence of spatial autocorrelation in economic growth. The results reveal that civil liberties, economic and press freedom, and aggregated freedom boost economic growth, whereas political rights have no significant effect on economic growth. Furthermore, the econometric model results indicate that FDI, FD, HC, and capital stock are positively and significantly associated with economic growth. This research is expected to provide policymakers with a thorough understanding of how to implement the best policies in European countries to achieve sustainable economic development.
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SKHVEDIANI, Angi E., Diana A. MAKSIMENKO et Anastasiya A. MAIKOVA. « Econometric analysis of relationship between intellectual capital and gross profit margin of Russian IT companies from 2017 to 2020 ». Economic Analysis : Theory and Practice 21, no 12 (28 décembre 2022) : 2272–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.24891/ea.21.12.2272.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Subject. The article addresses relationship between intellectual capital and operating efficiency of IT companies. Objectives. Our aim is to conduct econometric analysis of the impact of intellectual capital and its individual elements on the profit margin of Russian IT companies. Methods. We employ methods of econometric analysis. The sample comprised 323 IT companies operating in Russia from 2016 to 2020. Results. We built two blocks of linear regression models with random and fixed annual and panel effects. For models of the first block, were selected indicators of structural (SCE), human (HCE), relational (RCE) capital efficiency and capital employed efficiency (CEE) as exogenous variables. The regression analysis showed that CEE and SCE have a significant positive effect on profit marginality. For models of the second block, we used a complex indicator, combining SCE, HCE, and RCE. We established that intellectual capital in general is positively associated with gross profit marginality of Russian IT companies. Conclusions. The study revealed that Russian IT companies effectively use the supporting intangible infrastructure and total assets. However, human capital, being the most significant resource of this industry, is used inefficiently and provides no potential for profit. Relationships with counterparties (consumers, suppliers, and other stakeholders), expressed in RCE, did not show a significant relationship with profitability either. Practical application of the findings may help improve business processes and management of intangible resources of IT companies.
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Melich-Iwanek, Krystyna. « ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF THE POPULATION IN POLAND – SELECTED PROBLEMS AND CONDITIONS ». Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Humanitas Zarządzanie 22, no 3 (30 septembre 2021) : 9–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0015.4216.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The aim of the article is to analyze, from statistical and econometric perspectives, the dynamics of Poles’ economic activity, in particular, an attempt at a statistical measurement of the impact of select phenomena conditioning the labor market. Key considerations are preceded by a presentation the historical and current demographic situation in Poland. Problems of foreign migration and the aging of the Polish society were investigated. Moreover, impact of social policies on the labor market was analyzed, including the “Family 500+” program as well as regulations concerning retirement age. The study utilizes quantitative methods of time series analysis, including the time series models taking into account the occurrence of turning points. The results of research show, that: in the near future the Polish demographic situation will not improve, the lowering of retirement age is a threat to the labor market, the “500+” program not only did not influence a rise in fertility rate but lowered the rate of economic activity of women.
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Telfer, Evelyn E. « FERTILITY PRESERVATION : Progress and prospects for developing human immature oocytes in vitro ». Reproduction 158, no 5 (novembre 2019) : F45—F54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1530/rep-19-0077.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Ovarian cryopreservation rapidly developed from basic science to clinical application and can now be used to preserve the fertility of girls and young women at high risk of sterility. Primordial follicles can be cryopreserved in ovarian cortex for long-term storage and subsequently autografted back at an orthotopic or heterotopic site to restore fertility. However, autografting carries a risk of re-introducing cancer cells in patients with blood-born leukaemias or cancers with a high risk of ovarian metastasis. For these women fertility restoration could only be safely achieved in the laboratory by the complete in vitro growth (IVG) and maturation (IVM) of cryopreserved primordial follicles to fertile metaphase II (MII) oocytes. Culture systems to support the development of human oocytes have provided greater insight into the process of human oocyte development as well as having potential applications within the field of fertility preservation. The technology required to culture human follicles is extremely challenging, but significant advances have been made using animal models and translation to human. This review will detail the progress that has been made in developing human in vitro growth systems and consider the steps required to progress this technology towards clinical application.
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Rzymowski, Witold, et Agnieszka Surowiec. « Modelling Population Growth with Difference Equation Method ». Przegląd Statystyczny 64, no 3 (30 septembre 2017) : 339–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.0826.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In this paper, we present a new method of the econometric model construction: the difference equation method. We illustrate the proposed approach using an application example from human population dynamic study. We find out that proposed method is very useful to find one of the three forms of proposed models of human population satisfying the small maximal relative errors. The maximal relative error is a measure to verify the model of human population. The proposed method is tested for all available data referring to the human population in the OECD countries as well as in selected non-OECD countries.
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Doszyń, Mariusz. « Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Propensities on Economic Occurrences : A Macroeconomic Perspective ». Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia 10, no 2 (1 janvier 2012) : 138–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10031-011-0021-2.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Propensities on Economic Occurrences: A Macroeconomic PerspectiveThe main aim of this article was the specification of problems connected with analysis of impact of human propensities on economic occurrences and also a proposition of econometric tools enabling the identification of this impact. According to the meaning of propensities in economics the current state of knowledge is mostly an effect of considerations presented by J.M. Keynes in his famous book "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" where J.M. Keynes proposed such economic categories as the average and marginal propensities. One of the goals of the presented deliberations was to specify problems related with economic theory of propensities. Such propensities as a propensity to consume, to save, to invest and thesaurisation were particularly carefully analysed. The impact of these propensities on basic macroeconomic variables was considered with respect to the classical model, the neoclassical Solow-Swan model and theIS-LMscheme. In case of spatial data the effects of the impact of propensities could be analysed by means of models with dummy variables showing presence of given propensities. A procedure enabling the construction of such variables was proposed. In case of time series, conceptions delivered by the integration and cointegration theory could be applied. Especially such models as VAR and VECM could be useful. Models for panel data enable direct (models with fixed effects) or indirect (models with random effects) consideration of the impact of propensities on the analysed processes.
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Басовская et Elena Basovskaya. « Impact of Human Capital, Science and Innovation on Labour Productivity in Russia ». Economics 3, no 4 (10 août 2015) : 37–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/12777.
Texte intégralRésumé :
A program and methodology of the empirical study of the effect of human
capital, science and innovation on productivity and economic growth are
exemplified on modern Russian economy. To identify and quantify the impact of
factors related to human capital, innovation, science, labor productivity in the
country and its regions the author proposes to build econometric models using
cross-sectional data of regional statistics. It makes possible to obtain data and
forecast sizes of elasticity of labor productivity on the factors connected with
the human capital, science and innovations, the country and its regions. This
will generate a reasonable economic policy, policy of education and science
aimed at economic growth.
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Kelsey, Thomas W., Chia-Ho Hua, Amber Wyatt, Danny Indelicato et W. Hamish Wallace. « A predictive model of the effect of therapeutic radiation on the human ovary ». PLOS ONE 17, no 11 (18 novembre 2022) : e0277052. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0277052.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Radiation to the female pelvis as part of treatment for cancer predisposes young women to develop Premature Ovarian Insufficiency (POI). As the human female is born with their full complement of non-growing follicles which decline in an exponential fashion until the menopause, the age at which POI occurs is dependent on the age of the patient at treatment and the dose received by the ovary. A model that predicts the age at which POI occurs for a known dose at a known age will aid counselling patients on their fertility risk. Patients deemed to be at high risk of POI may be considered to be good candidates for established fertility preservation techniques. An updated and externally validated model of the age-related decline in human ovarian reserve was combined with the best available estimate of the median lethal dose LD50 for the human ovary. Using known age at diagnosis and posited radiotherapy treatment plan to estimate the dose to the least-affected ovary, we use an age-related model of the decline in ovarian reserve to generate a personalized age prediction of premature ovarian insufficiency. Our algorithm is available as an online calculator which graphs model outputs to inform discussions around survivor fertility. We report four example cases across different ages and diagnoses, each with two carefully designed photon and proton treatment plans. The treatment options are compared in terms of remaining fertile lifespan for the survivor. International oncology guidelines now mandate the consideration of later fertility when reviewing treatment options for children diagnosed with cancer. Our calculator (https://sites.cs.st-andrews.ac.uk/radiosensitivity), and the underlying algorithm and models, allow detailed predictions of the impact of various radiotherapy plans on fertility. These patient-specific data enhance pre-treatment discussions around post-treatment fertility and fertility preservation.
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Alex, Anu P., V. S. Manju et Kuncheria P. Isaac. « Modelling of travel behaviour of students using artificial intelligence ». Archives of Transport 51, no 3 (30 septembre 2019) : 7–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0013.6159.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Travel demand models are required by transportation planners to predict the travel behaviour of people with different socio-economic characteristics. Travel behaviour of students act as an essential component of travel demand modelling. This behaviour is reflected in the educational activity travel pattern, the timing, sequence and mode of travel of students. Roads in the vicinity of schools are adversely affected during the school opening and closing hours. It enhances the traffic congestion, emission and safety problems around schools. It is necessary to improve the safety of school going children by understanding the present travel behaviour and to develop efficient sustainable traffic management measures to reduce congestion in the vicinity of schools. It is possible only if the travel behaviour of educational activities are studied. This travel behaviour is complex in nature and lot of uncertainty exists. Selection of modelling technique is very important for modelling the complex travel behaviour of students. This leads to the importance of application of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in this area. AI techniques are highly developed in twenty first century due to the advancements in computer, big data and theoretical understanding. It is proved in the literature that these techniques are suitable for modelling the human behaviour. However, it has not been used in behaviourally oriented activity based modelling. This study is aimed to develop a model system to predict the daily travel behaviour of students using artificial intelligence technique, ANN. These ANN models were then compared with the conventional econometric models developed. It was observed that artificial intelligence models provide better results than econometric models in predicting the activity-travel behaviour of students. These models were further applied to study the variation in activity-travel behaviour, if short term travel-demand management measures like promoting walking for educational activities are implemented. Thus the study established that artificial intelligence can replace the conventional econometric methods for modelling the activity-travel behaviour of students. It can also be used for analysing the impact of short term travel demand management measures.
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Комарова, Anna Komarova, Басовский et Leonid Basovskiy. « Analysis of Labour Efficiency and Human Capital Assessment in the Russian Federation on the Example of Siberian Federal District ». Economics 4, no 1 (18 février 2016) : 57–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/17722.
Texte intégralRésumé :
With the use of regression analysis, we calculated the elasticity of labor efficiency
by education level of the employed population. The analysis included regional
data from the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia.
The implemented methodology is based on econometric models of labour
productivity in the regions of the Siberian Federal District of Russia. It is shown
that the level of education of the working population is a significant factor
in determining the productivity of labour in the regions of the Siberian Federal
District of Russia.
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Mukai, Shiro. « Combined Agronomic and Economic Modeling in Farmers’ Determinants of Soil Fertility Management Practices : Case Study from the Semi-Arid Ethiopian Rift Valley ». Agriculture 13, no 2 (23 janvier 2023) : 281. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture13020281.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Studies on smallholders’ determinants of soil fertility management practices have become increasingly important for boosting agricultural productivity, particularly in cereal-based farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa. In these parts of Africa, farmers preferentially apply organic and inorganic fertilizers to the fields close to their housing compounds (infields). In addition, they prefer to use more fertilizers to grow cash crops rather than food crops. Many researchers suggested that farmers use limited nutrient resources in their hot-spot fields, e.g., infields and/or cash-crop fields. Recent econometric case studies have suggested using a model that considers a complementarity or substitutability between organic and inorganic fertilizers use. This study employed bivariate probit models to analyze 524 plot data collected from the northern semi-arid Ethiopian Rift Valley. A K-means cluster analysis divided the sample data into two subdatasets, representing food-crop-based cropping system (FCCS) and cash-crop-based cropping system (CCCS). Based on narrative inquiry interviews and the cluster analysis, this study considered reflecting the structure of the local farming system in modeling: a data segmentation approach and dummy variable method. Bivariate and univariate probit analyses showed that, first, the farmers’ determinants differed between the FCCS and CCCS. Second, the correlation between organic and inorganic fertilizers use was independent. Farmers’ determinants were primarily governed by the biophysical features of the plots (commuting distance to the plot, plot size, type of the plot, etc.), which narrowed down the feasible soil fertility management options in the plot to one or two; farmers’ more specific decisions on soil fertility management practices depend on individual farmers’ socioeconomic endowments (farm holding, livestock ownership, etc.).
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Basovskiy, Leonid, et Elena Basovskaya. « The problem of the formation of human capital in Russia by the education system ». Scientific Research and Development. Economics 10, no 5 (29 septembre 2022) : 24–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/2587-9111-2022-10-5-24-29.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The purpose of the work was to assess the trends in the formation of human capi-tal in Russia by the education system. Trends in returns to education in contemporary Russia assessed by constructing econometric models of education premiums. We used data from the Russian Monitoring of the Health and Economic Situation of the Popula-tion (HSE RLMS) and data from the Survey of Wages by Occupation (OSS) of Rosstat. The obtained characteristics of the models showed that the main trend of change is a decrease in the level of return from higher, secondary vocational and secondary (full) education. Forecasting carried out using the characteristics of the obtained models. It has been established that secondary vocational and secondary (general) education will cease to bring any return, will cease to form the human capital of modern Russia in 2022-2024, higher education will cease to bring any return, will cease to form human capital modern Russia in 2040-2050. The problem of the education system losing the function of forming human capital is due to the problems of economics and education management.
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Wodarz, Dominik, Shaun Stipp, David Hirshleifer et Natalia L. Komarova. « Evolutionary dynamics of culturally transmitted, fertility-reducing traits ». Proceedings of the Royal Society B : Biological Sciences 287, no 1925 (15 avril 2020) : 20192468. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2019.2468.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Human populations in many countries have undergone a phase of demographic transition, characterized by a major reduction in fertility at a time of increased resource availability. A key stylized fact is that the reduction in fertility is preceded by a reduction in mortality and a consequent increase in population density. Various theories have been proposed to account for the demographic transition process, including maladaptation, increased parental investment in fewer offspring, and cultural evolution. None of these approaches, including formal cultural evolutionary models of the demographic transitions, have addressed a possible direct causal relationship between a reduction in mortality and the subsequent decline in fertility. We provide mathematical models in which low mortality favours the cultural selection of low-fertility traits. This occurs because reduced mortality slows turnover in the model, which allows the cultural transmission advantage of low-fertility traits to outrace their reproductive disadvantage. For mortality to be a crucial determinant of outcome, a cultural transmission bias is required where slow reproducers exert higher social influence. Computer simulations of our models that allow for exogenous variation in the death rate can reproduce the central features of the demographic transition process, including substantial reductions in fertility within only one to three generations. A model assuming continuous evolution of reproduction rates through imitation errors predicts fertility to fall below replacement levels if death rates are sufficiently low. This can potentially explain the very low preferred family sizes in Western Europe.
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AGUIRREGABIRIA, VICTOR, et PEDRO MIRA. « A HYBRID GENETIC ALGORITHM FOR THE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF MODELS WITH MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA : A FIRST REPORT ». New Mathematics and Natural Computation 01, no 02 (juillet 2005) : 295–303. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793005705000160.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This paper presents a hybrid genetic algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of parameters in structural econometric models with multiple equilibria. The algorithm combines a pseudo maximum likelihood (PML) procedure with a genetic algorithm (GA). The GA searches globally over the large space of possible combinations of multiple equilibria in the data. The PML procedure avoids the computation of all the equilibria associated with every trial value of the structural parameters.