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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Fertility, Human – Econometric models"
1
Elgin, Ceyhun. « A THEORY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WITH ENDOGENOUS FERTILITY ». Macroeconomic Dynamics 16, no 5 (2 juin 2011) : 686–705. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100510000842.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In this paper I build a unified model of economic growth to account for the time-series evolution of output, fertility, and population in the industrialization of an economy. Specifically, I merge the unified growth models of Galor and Weil [American Economic Review 90 (2000), 806–828] and Hansen and Prescott [American Economic Review 92 (2002), 1205–1217] to capture the importance of human capital formation, fertility decline, and the transition from agriculture to industry in transition from stagnation to growth. Moreover, I also incorporate young adult mortality into the model. Initially, the aggregate human capital and return to education are low and the mortality rate is high; therefore parents invest in quantity of children. Once sufficient human capital is accumulated and mortality rates are reduced, thanks to increasing life expectancy, with the activation of the modern human capital–intensive sector, parents start to invest in the quality of their children. The simulation of the model economy improves upon the quantitative performance of the existing literature and successfully captures the evolution of fertility, population, and GDP in the British economy between 1750 and 2000.
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Keane, Michael P. « Labor Supply and Taxes : A Survey ». Journal of Economic Literature 49, no 4 (1 décembre 2011) : 961–1075. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.49.4.961.
Texte intégralRésumé :
I survey the male and female labor supply literatures, focusing on implications for effects of wages and taxes. For males, I describe and contrast results from three basic types of model: static models (especially those that account for nonlinear taxes), life-cycle models with savings, and life-cycle models with both savings and human capital. For women, more important distinctions are whether models include fixed costs of work, and whether they treat demographics like fertility and marriage (and human capital) as exogenous or endogenous. The literature is characterized by considerable controversy over the responsiveness of labor supply to changes in wages and taxes. At least for males, it is fair to say that most economists believe labor supply elasticities are small. But a sizable minority of studies that I examine obtain large values. Hence, there is no clear consensus on this point. In fact, a simple average of Hicks elasticities across all the studies I examine is 0.31. Several simulation studies have shown that such a value is large enough to generate large efficiency costs of income taxation. For males, I conclude that two factors drive many of the differences in results across studies. One factor is use of direct versus ratio wage measures, with studies that use the former tending to find larger elasticities. Another factor is the failure of most studies to account for human capital returns to work experience. I argue that this may lead to downward bias in elasticity estimates. In a model that includes human capital, I show how even modest elasticities—as conventionally measured—can be consistent with large efficiency costs of taxation. For women, in contrast, it is fair to say that most studies find large labor supply elasticities, especially on the participation margin. In particular, I find that estimates of “long-run” labor supply elasticities—by which I mean estimates that allow for dynamic effects of wages on fertility, marriage, education and work experience—are generally quite large. (JEL D91, J13, J16, J22, J31, H24)
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Topalli, Margerita, Meri Papavangjeli, Silvester Ivanaj et Blerta Ferra. « The Impact of Foreign Direct Investments on Poverty Reduction in the Western Balkans ». Economics 15, no 1 (1 janvier 2021) : 129–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/econ-2021-0008.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract This article empirically examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on poverty in six Western Balkan countries and also considers other country characteristics, such as the human development index (HDI), corruption, investment freedom, economic freedom, trade openness, and fertility. The work presents estimations based on a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator for panel data models with fixed effects during the period from 2002 to 2021. Our results show that FDI has significantly contributed to poverty reduction in the Western Balkan countries. However, attention should be paid to where and how FDI takes place as these investments should be directed at the productive sectors of the economy, thus leading to a higher impact on poverty and inequality. The study also finds that policies and institutions that support a country’s economic freedom and openness are imperative for poverty reduction. In addition, poverty reduction in the Western Balkan region can be achieved through measures that contribute to the improvement of HDI and strengthen institutions to combat corruption. Nevertheless, the empirical results of the paper are subject to a number of drawbacks, such as the limited number of observations and the considerable amount of missing data, some of which is probably questionable, a phenomenon that is quite common for developing countries.
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Kim Yen, Wun, Ratneswary Rasiah et Jason James Turner. « An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility : International Evidence ». Journal of International Business, Economics and Entrepreneurship 3, no 1 (30 juin 2018) : 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.24191/jibe.v3i1.14434.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This study aims to analyse the socio and macroeconomic determinants of fertility in 108 countries across the globe. Focusing on the variables of inflation, income, education level and urbanization, this study employs the cross-sectional econometrics technique of Ordinary Least Squares to analyse the causal relationship between these variables and fertility. The empirical results reveal a significant and negative relationship between income and fertility in the overall model of the 108 countries, as well as in the models involving developing countries, and countries in the African, American and Asian regions. Education was found to also have a significant and negative relationship with fertility in the overall model and the developing countries. Urbanisation, on the other hand, was found to have a significant and positive relationship with fertility in the overall model, developing countries and in countries in the African and Asian regions. Inflation was the only predictor found to be not significant in all the models. As far as the least developed countries, developed countries and the countries in the European region were concerned, none of the independent variables were significant predictors of fertility. The study concludes with an examination of policy implications of the findings
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Hozer, Józef, et Mariusz Doszyń. « Econometric Models of Propensities ». Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia 6, no 1 (1 janvier 2007) : 15–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10031-007-0008-1.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Econometric Models of Propensities Human being is one of the most important sources of causative forces of events that assemble economical processes. Working out the effective tools that enable measurement of the impact of people on socio-economic processes is necessary in analyzing, troubleshooting and forecasting. In the article the issues of calculating propensities by means of properly specified econometrics models were presented. The definition of propensity was introduced. Questions connected with topic of propensities were presented in context of concepts promoted by Szczecin school of econometrics (pentagon of sources of causative forces, types of relationships in economics, geometric interpretation of personality, broom of events). Econometric models, useful in analyzing propensities, were classified on primary models, econometrics models of average propensities and econometrics models of marginal propensities. Connections between the models were described. Settlement of analytical shapes of characterized models was mentioned. In an empirical example the presented methods were used to analyze average and marginal propensity to consumption of alcoholic beverages and tobacco in the households of employees in manual labour positions in Poland in years 1993-2005.
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Barbieri, Laura. « Causality and interdependence analysis in linear econometric models with an application to fertility ». Journal of Applied Statistics 40, no 8 (août 2013) : 1701–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2013.793660.
Texte intégral
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Haque, Ismail, Dipendra Nath Das et Priyank Pravin Patel. « Reading the geography of India’s district-level fertility differentials : a spatial econometric approach ». Journal of Biosocial Science 51, no 5 (8 août 2019) : 745–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021932019000087.
Texte intégralRésumé :
AbstractIndia has gradually progressed into fertility transition over the last few decades. However, the timing and pace of this transition has varied notably in terms of both its geography and the demographic groups most affected by it. While much literature exists on the relationships between fertility level and its influence on demographic, economic, socio-cultural and policy-related factors, the potential spatial variations in the effects of these factors on the fertility level remain unaddressed. Using the most recent district-level census data (of 2011) for India, this nationwide study has identified plausible spatial dependencies and heterogeneities in the relationships between the district-wise Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) and their respective demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors. After developing a geocoded database for 621 districts of India, spatial regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were used to decipher location-based relationships between the district-level TFR and its driving forces. The results revealed that the relationships between the district-level TFR and the considered selected predictors (percentage of Muslims, urbanization, caste group, female mean age at marriage, female education, females in the labour force, net migration, sex ratio at birth and exposure to mass media) were not spatially invariant in terms of their respective strength, magnitude and direction, and furthermore, these relationships were conspicuously place- and context-specific. This study suggests that such locality-based variations and their complexities cannot be explained simply by a single narrative of either socioeconomic advancement or government policy interventions. It therefore contributes to the ongoing debate on fertility research in India by highlighting the spatial dependence and heterogeneity of the impacts made by demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors on local fertility levels. From a methodological perspective, the study also discerns that the GWR local model performs better, in terms of both model performance and prediction accuracy, compared with the conventional global model estimates.
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Sakhbetdinova, Kamilya. « Determinants of fertility in Russian families ». Moscow University Economics Bulletin 2020, no 6 (30 décembre 2020) : 104–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.38050/01300105202066.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Competent demographic policy implies an understanding by the state of the economic, social, and demographic processes taking place in society. In earlier Russian and foreign studies, the authors found a number of fertility factors, however, the direction of influence of such determinants could be opposite. Aware of the special influence of sociocultural attitudes and values of the population on the number of children in a family, the author made an attempt to identify the determinants of fertility based on an empirical study of the World Values Survey. Using statistical and econometric methods, models that reflect the determinants of fertility in modern Russia were constructed. This work revealed a positive effect on the birth rate of religiosity, traditional views and the importance of the family for the respondent. Inversely related to the number of children in a family such factors as the level of education of the population and the value of leisure.
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Shankar Singh, Ajay. « Human Fertility Behavior Through Birth Interval Models : Overview ». American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics 5, no 3 (2016) : 132. http://dx.doi.org/10.11648/j.ajtas.20160503.18.
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Ismagilova, Larisa, et Elvira Arylbaeva. « Labor productivity management : cognitive models of contradictions ». Vestnik BIST (Bashkir Institute of Social Technologies), no 2(55) (30 juin 2022) : 154–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.47598/2078-9025-2022-2-55-154-161.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The analysis of the research, demonstrating the interrelation between the efficiency of human resources management and economic results of the enterprise has been conducted. Causal relationship between human resource management and productivity is shown. Contradictions in the formation of human and labor resources are revealed. The defining role of human capital in the structure of intangible resources. The procedure of substantiation of the choice of HR-practices that involves the construction of a generalized cognitive model of the impact of intangible resources on productivity was formed. The structure of the system of labor productivity management is developed. The structure of the blocks of imitation model on the basis of econometric research data, the procedure of selection of the most important HR-factors is proposed. The possibility of substantiating the choice of control actions based on modeling results is shown. Causal scheme of labor productivity management through intangible resources of industrial enterprise is proposed. A set of econometric models built on the basis of generalization of empirical research and statistical data of specific enterprises was used to develop the model.
Thèses sur le sujet "Fertility, Human – Econometric models"
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CAVALLINI, Flavia. « Essays in applied microeconometrics : fertility, nutrition, and gender representation ». Doctoral thesis, European University Institute, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/74600.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Defence date: 10 June 2022Examining Board: Prof. Thomas Crossley (EUI, Supervisor); Prof. Alessandro Tarozzi (EUI, Co-Supervisor); Prof. Nadia Campaniello (University of Torino and Collegio Carlo Alberto); Prof. Emilia Del Bono (ISER, University of Essex)
This thesis is composed of three independent essays in applied microeconomics. The first contributes to the field of labor and health economics and analyzes the effect of local unemployment rates on fertility rates, abortion rates, and the abortions to pregnancies ratio. The second chapter speaks to health and development economics literature, evaluating the impact of agricultural price spikes on farmers’ nutrition, considering the case study of quinoa in Peru. The topic of the final chapter lies within the fields of gender and political economics and discusses the effect of gender representation within local governments on expenditure in social services. Even though the three chapters seem separate, all of them share my interest in gender and health economics, as well as causal estimation. In Chapter 1, I analyze the effect of local unemployment rates on fertility rates, abortion rates, and the abortions to pregnancies ratio, combining population statistics and administrative data on induced abortions performed in Italy between 2004 and 2016. This is the first paper to causally investigate the effect of local economic conditions on abortion choice. Using a shift-share instrument measuring labor demand, I exploit demand-driven shocks to unemployment. A one standard deviation (sd) increase in unemployment induces a 0.9 sd decrease in the fertility rate, a 0.27 sd increase in the abortion rate, and a 0.35 sd increase in the abortion ratio. In percentage terms, these changes mean that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate brings about a 1.7% decrease in the general fertility rate, a 1.4% increase in the abortion rate, and a 1.8% increase in the abortion ratio. These effects are driven by women above 25 years old, and are particularly large in the 35-49 age group. In Chapter 2, I consider the impact of food price changes on farmers’ particular nutrition, as part of a discussion of the effect of preference shifts in the global North on welfare in the global South. Previous research has yielded contrasting results, while this question is increasingly relevant. The case of quinoa provides an ideal event study, where quinoa prices steeply increased from 2008 onwards, led by increasing international demand. I study the effect of this price shock on the nutrition of Peruvian households in a difference in differences framework. Results point to a limited effect on nutritional outcomes: in the short- term, neither caloric intake nor diet quality significantly increases in quinoa-farming households and districts. Chapter 3 investigates the effect of executive female representation on the provision of different social services, in the context of Italy. While Italy is a high-income country, many families still rely on women to take care of children, the elderly, and family members in need of assistance. We exploit a 2014 reform that mandated 40% gender quotas in the executive committees of municipalities with more than 3000 inhabitants. To account for confounding policies introduced at the same cutoff, we employ a difference-in-discontinuities empirical strategy. We find that while the policy was effective in increasing female representation, it did not have an impact on any category of social services expenditures.
1 Not the right time for children: unemployment, fertility, and abortion 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Institutional framework 1.3 Data and descriptive statistics 1.3.1 Data and construction of the sample 1.3.2 Dependent variables 1.3.3 Descriptive statistics 1.4 Empirical strategy 1.5 Results 1.5.1 Age heterogeneity 1.6 Robustness checks 1.7 Conclusion -- References -- Appendix 1.A Additional results 1.A.1 Age heterogeneity - response to the aggregate unemployment rate 1.A.2 Geographic heterogeneity 1.A.3 Robustness checks -- Appendix 1.B Bartik instrument 1.B.1 Industry sectors 1.B.2 First stage relationship 1.B.3 Alternative Bartik instruments -- Appendix 1.C Descriptive analysis of the recessio 1.C.1 The recession in Italy . 1.C.2 North and South -- Appendix 1.D Data appendix 2 Do food price shocks affect farmers’ nutrition? A study on rising quinoa prices in Peru 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Quinoa: history, characteristics, production 2.3 Data and sample selection 2.4 Empirical strategy and sample selection 2.4.1 Pre-treatment characteristics 2.4.2 Parallel trends 2.5 Results 2.6 Conclusion -- References -- Appendix 2.A Descriptives 2.A.1 Summary statistics 2.A.2 Sample selection - balance of characteristics 2.A.3 Quinoa - production and consumption -- Appendix 2.B Parallel trends -- Appendix 2.C Other results -- Appendix 2.D Nutrition estimation 2.D.1 Estimation of food and nutrient consumption 2.D.2 Estimation of diet quality 2.D.3 Diet index and caloric intake -- Appendix 2.E Institutional initiatives 3 Executive Gender Quotas and Social Services: Evidence from Italy 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Institutions and Data 3.2.1 Institutional Framework 3.2.2 Data Sources and Sample Selection 3.2.3 Descriptive Statistics 3.3 Conceptual Framework 3.4 Empirical Strategy 3.4.1 Confounding Policies and Treatments’ Definition 3.4.2 Potential Outcomes, Assumptions, and Estimator 3.4.3 Estimation 3.5 Results 3.5.1 Share and Number of Women in Municipal Executive 3.5.2 Effect on Social Spending 3.5.3 Internal Validity 3.6 Robustness 3.7 Conclusion -- References -- Appendix 3.A Empirical Strategy: Diff-in-disc in Our Setting 3.A.1 Local Parallel Trends, Expenditure Subgroups 3.A.2 Results on Total Accrued Expenses Appendix 3.B Pre-existing policies and potential confounders 3.B.1 Changes in Council and Executive Size 3.B.2 Joint Provision of Childcare
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Chowdhury, Mohammed. « A Bayesian analysis of a conception model ». Virtual Press, 2008. http://liblink.bsu.edu/uhtbin/catkey/1398705.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Fecundability is regarded as one of the important parameters of fertility performance of the married women. Due to the complex nature of fecundability, we have attempted to estimate mean fecundability from the first conception interval. The first conception intervals have been obtained utilizing the data extracted from the 1999-2000 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey(BDHS). The purpose of the study is to estimate mean fecundability by various classical and non classical methods of estimation. Since the cohort of women is not homogeneous, we have attempted to estimate the mean natural fecundability from the Beta Distribution with parameters a and b. For the classical method, the parameters are estimated by the method of moments and method of maximum likelihood. For the non classical methods, standard, hierarchical, and empirical Bayes were used to estimate the mean fecundability. By using the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey(1999-2000) Data, the mean conception delay of the Bangladeshi women has been found to be 21.31 months after their first marriage and mean fecundability is 0.04692. This mean fecundability is computed as the reciprocal of mean conception delay. The theoretical arithmetic mean fecundabilities were found to be 0.058 and 0.066 employing the method of moments and method of maximum likelihood. The standard Bayes estimate of fecundability is 0.04696 while the Hierarchical and Empirical Bayes estimate of fecundability are 0.04694 and 0.04692. To compute the Hierarchical Bayes estimate, we used the Gibbs Sampler technique. In the case of Hierarchical Bayes method, we model the prior in terms of another random variable but in Empirical Bayes method, we estimate the parameter instead of attempting to model the parameter from the data. In this study, we have observed that the variation in mean fecundability is negligible whatever the methods of estimation be.Department of Mathematical Sciences
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David, Quentin. « Five essays on human and social capital ». Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210298.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Chapter 1: The Determinants of the Production of Research by US UniversitiesChapter 2: Investment in Vocational and General Human Capital: A Theoretical Approach
Chapter 3: Urban Migrations and the Labor Market
Chapter 4: Local social capital and geographical mobility
Chapter 5: Social Supervision and Electoral Stability on the Geographical Scale in Belgium
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
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VURI, Daniela. « Fertility and divorce ». Doctoral thesis, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/5107.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Defence date: 12 May 2003Examining board: Prof. Andrea Ichino, EUI, Supervisor ; Prof. Frank Vella, EUI ; Prof. Daniela Del Boca, Università di Torino ; Prof. John Ermisch, ISER, Essex
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digitised archive of EUI PhD theses completed between 2013 and 2017
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« Agricultural productivity, human capital, and economic growth ». 2013. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5549257.
Texte intégralRésumé :
本文在分析不同改革運動中的成敗關鍵，文中分析日本明治維新、中國大躍進、文化大革命及改革開放中不同經濟因素之相互影響。文中從歷史中歸納出兩種對工業化及經濟發展最重要的因素：農業生產力及教育水平。日本明治維新及中國文化大革命時農業生產力及教育水平不斷上升，導至社會工業化及經濟發展加速；大躍進時則只有教育水平上升，農業生產力提高，故此工業化最後失敗及經濟水平低下。而把這模型套在改革開放亦同樣有效： 在改革開放時，農業生產力、教育水平、工業化及經濟發展四個指標同時上升。Inspired by the Meiji Restoration in Japan and Cultural Revolution in China, we constructed a theoretical model that explained economic performance of both historical episodes. We argued that the two elements: agricultural productivity and human capital are vital for industrialization and hence important for economic growth. In Meiji Restoration and Cultural Revolution, agricultural productivity and human capital both increase. The employment share moving from agricultural sector to non-agricultural sector and positive economic growth were recorded during those two periods of time. The model can also be used to explain the post-reform economic performance in China. We also find qualitative evidence that the lack of one element - agricultural productivity - will not contribute to a successful industrialization and may have adverse effect in economic growth.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Cheung, Ting Yuen Terry.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2013.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 40-45).
Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Abstracts also in Chinese.
English Abstract --- p.i
Chinese Abstract --- p.ii
Acknowledgement --- p.iii
Chapter I. --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter II. --- Historical Facts --- p.7
Chapter A. --- Two Historical Episodes with Both Elements --- p.7
Meiji Restoration --- p.7
Cultural Revolution --- p.11
Chapter B. --- A Historical Episode Lack of one Element --- p.14
Chapter C. --- Summary Note and Application --- p.17
Chapter III. --- Model --- p.19
Chapter A. --- Model without Capital --- p.19
The Environment --- p.19
Optimization --- p.21
Comparative Statics --- p.25
Chapter B. --- Model with Capital --- p.28
Closed Economy --- p.28
Small Open Economy --- p.34
Chapter IV. --- Conclusion and Further Research --- p.35
Remark for Further Research --- p.37
Reference --- p.39
Appendix --- p.45
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« An economic analysis of birth behavior in Hong Kong ». 2000. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5890400.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Lai Tak Chi.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2000.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 69-72).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Acknowledgments --- p.ii
English Abstract --- p.iii
Chinese Abstract --- p.iv
Table of Contents --- p.v
List of Tables --- p.vii
List of Figures --- p.viii
List of Appendices --- p.ix
Chapter Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter Chapter 2. --- Literature Reviews --- p.8
Chapter 2.1 --- Theoretical Approach of Household Fertility Decision --- p.8
Chapter 2.2 --- Modeling of Household Fertility Decision --- p.17
Chapter 2.2a. --- Linear Regression Model --- p.17
Chapter 2.2b. --- Count Data Models --- p.18
Chapter 2.2c. --- Goodness of Fit --- p.23
Chapter 2.3 --- Summary and Limitations --- p.25
Chapter Chapter 3. --- Data Sources and Limitations --- p.26
Chapter 3.1 --- Data Sources of the Cross-Section Analysis --- p.26
Chapter 3.2 --- Data Sources of the Time-Series Analysis --- p.26
Chapter 3.3 --- Data Limitations of the Cross-Section Analysis --- p.27
Chapter 3.4 --- Data Limitations of the Time-Series Analysis --- p.27
Chapter Chapter 4. --- Decision of Birth --- p.29
Chapter 4.1 --- Variable Definitions and Explanations --- p.29
Chapter 4.2 --- Statistical Framework --- p.33
Chapter 4.3 --- Results and Explanations for the Regression of the Decision of Birth --- p.33
Chapter 4.4 --- Summary --- p.36
Chapter Chapter 5. --- Fertility Behavior --- p.38
Chapter 5.1 --- Variable Definitions and Explanations --- p.38
Chapter 5.2 --- Statistical Framework --- p.40
Chapter 5.3 --- Empirical Results --- p.42
Chapter 5.4 --- Summary --- p.54
Chapter Chapter 6. --- Time Series Analysis --- p.56
Chapter Chapter 7. --- Conclusions --- p.63
Appendices --- p.65
Bibliography --- p.69
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Ofosu, Dickson Yaw. « Hazard models analysis of birth intervals : a study based on West African data ». Phd thesis, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/117105.
Texte intégral
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« Measurement and determinants of China's missing girls ». 2010. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5894377.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Yang, Ling.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2010.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 76-79).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Abstract --- p.i
Abstract in Chinese --- p.ii
Acknowledgments --- p.iii
Contents --- p.iv
Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.5
Chapter 3 --- Review of Major Findings --- p.9
Chapter 3.1 --- "Estimation of ""Missing Females""" --- p.9
Chapter 3.2 --- "Estimation of ""Missing Girls""" --- p.11
Chapter 3.2.1 --- Reverse Survival Methods --- p.12
Chapter 3.2.2 --- Reconstruction of Birth Cohort --- p.13
Chapter 3.2.3 --- Reported Death and Surviving Children --- p.14
Chapter 3.2.4 --- Projection Based on Fertility Level --- p.15
Chapter 4 --- "Decomposition of ""Missing Girls""" --- p.17
Chapter 5 --- Empirical Analysis --- p.20
Chapter 5.1 --- Choice of Variables --- p.20
Chapter 5.1.1 --- Choice of Model Life Table: xq*m0 and xq*f0 --- p.20
Chapter 5.1.2 --- Choice ofNatural Level of SRB: SRB* --- p.21
Chapter 5.1.3 --- "Determining the Reporting Ratio and Cohort Size: sm,x(x),sf,x(x), lm,x(x) and lf,x(x)" --- p.21
Chapter 5.2 --- Empirical Results --- p.26
Chapter 5.2.1 --- National-level Estimates --- p.26
Chapter 5.2.2 --- Provincial-Level Estimates --- p.28
Chapter 6 --- Regression Analysis --- p.35
Chapter 6.1 --- Model --- p.35
Chapter 6.2 --- Discussion of Explanatory Variables --- p.37
Chapter 6.2.1 --- Policy Implementation --- p.37
Chapter 6.2.2 --- Demographic Characters --- p.38
Chapter 6.2.3 --- Social-economic Development --- p.41
Chapter 6.3 --- Data and Descriptive Statistics --- p.42
Chapter 6.4 --- Estimation Results --- p.45
Chapter 6.4.1 --- Future Extension --- p.48
Chapter 7 --- Conclusion --- p.49
Appendix --- p.50
Chapter A.l --- "Calculating Number of ""Missing Grils"": Procedures and Assumptions" --- p.50
Chapter A.2 --- Census Questionnaire --- p.55
Chapter A.3 --- Assumptions and Procedures to Derive Prefectural-level Estimates --- p.61
Chapter A.4 --- Questionnaire of Death Event in Census 2000 --- p.63
Chapter A.5 --- Size of Migration Population --- p.64
Chapter A.6 --- Previous Fertility Outcomes and Reporting Behavior --- p.72
References --- p.76
Figures --- p.80
Tables --- p.83
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Day, Creina. « Essays in population, R&D and economic growth ». Phd thesis, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/147707.
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Kim, Sung-Ju. « The impact of federal government welfare expenditures on state government expenditures and philanthropic giving to human service organizations (HSOs) : 2005-2006 ». Thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1805/4523.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)A sizeable body of research has attempted to examine the interaction between government spending and private giving known as the crowd-out effect. Most researchers reported that increases of government spending cause decreases of philanthropic giving to different types of nonprofits. However, few studies have attempted to indicate the interaction between government welfare expenditures and private giving to human service organizations even though human service organizations are the most sensitive to the changes of government spending. Additionally, the estimated crowd-out effects with a simple crowd-out model have been criticized for potential endogeneity bias. This paper investigates the total effect of federal government welfare spending on state government expenditures and philanthropic giving to human service organizations (known as joint crowd-out). I used the 2005 wave of the Center on Philanthropy Panel Study (COPPS) to estimate the effect of federal human service grants on state government spending on, and donations to human services. From these reduced-form estimates I infer the levels of simple and joint crowd-out. I found that indicate federal spending on public welfare crowds out private giving to human service organizations while holding control variables constant in the donations equation. However, federal government spending on public welfare crowds in state government spending on public welfare.
Livres sur le sujet "Fertility, Human – Econometric models"
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C, Gulati S. Fertility in India : An econometric analysis of a metropolis. New Delhi : Sage Publications, 1988.
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Bilsborrow, Richard E. Community and institutional influence on fertility : Analytical issues. Geneva : International Labour Office, 1987.
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Day, Creina. Will fertility rebound in Japan ? Canberra, A.C.T : Australia-Japan Research Centre, 2012.
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Benefo, Kofi Darkwa. Determinants of fertility and child mortality in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 1994.
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Adolf, Wagner, dir. Fertilitätsentscheidungen und Bevölkerungsentwicklung : Beiträge zur mikroökonomischen Fertilitätstheorie und Untersuchung ihrer Relevanz unter den ordnungspolitischen Gegebenheiten der DDR. Tübingen : Francke, 1991.
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Rose, Andrew. Fertility and the real exchange rate. Cambridge, Mass : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2007.
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Arroyo, Cristino R. Economic approaches to modeling fertility determinants : A selective review. Washington, D.C. (1818 H St. NW Washington, DC 20433) : Population and Human Resources Dept., World Bank, 1993.
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Alesina, Alberto. Divorce, fertility and the shot gun marriage. Cambridge, Mass : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.
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Jones, Larry E. An economic history of fertility in the U.S. : 1826-1960. Cambridge, Mass : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.
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Ökonomische Wirkungen eines Geburtenrückgangs : Eine theoretische Analyse unter besonderer Berücksichtigung aussenwirtschaftlicher Aspekte und der Situation in Deutschland. Frankfurt am Main : P. Lang, 1997.
Trouver le texte intégralChapitres de livres sur le sujet "Fertility, Human – Econometric models"
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Kutchy, Naseer A., Sule Dogan, Abdullah Kaya, Arlindo Moura et Erdogan Memili. « Sperm Chromatin Dynamics Associated with Male Fertility in Mammals ». Dans Animal Models and Human Reproduction, 427–34. Hoboken, NJ, USA : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118881286.ch16.
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Mossa, Francesca, Siobhàn W. Walsh, Alex C. O. Evans, Fermin Jimenez-Krassel et James J. Ireland. « Early Developmental Programming of the Ovarian Reserve, Ovarian Function, and Fertility ». Dans Animal Models and Human Reproduction, 91–108. Hoboken, NJ, USA : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118881286.ch4.
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Miranda, Alfonso. « Econometric models of fertility ». Dans Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Microeconomics, 113–54. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4337/9781788976480.00012.
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Good, Kayla M., et Anthony M. Maticic Jr. « Socioeconomic Influences on Fertility Rate Fluctuations in Developed and Developing Economies ». Dans Applied Econometric Analysis, 141–63. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-1093-3.ch007.
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This study investigates what socioeconomic factors determine the varying fertility rates among developed and developing nations and the implications of this information. Social and economic variables are analyzed using a panel of 20 nations with annual data from 1991-2015 to determine the most sizable and significant variables that impact fertility rates. A one-way fixed effects model is utilized. This study includes an aggregate model as well as two models isolating the fertility rates of developed nations and of developing nations, in accordance with Chow-Test results. The results find that there is a divergence between the determinants of fertility rates, based upon the development level. It is clear from these results that fertility and population control issues are specific to the state of a nation's development; thus, blanket policies will not fully address the issue of excessive population growth.
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Goldberger, Arthur S. « Structural Equation Models in Human Behavior Genetics ». Dans Identification and Inference for Econometric Models, 11–26. Cambridge University Press, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511614491.003.
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Masson, Puneet, Sarah M. Lambert, Peter N. Schlegel et Harry Fisch. « Fertility and Aging Men : An Introduction to the Male Biological Clock ». Dans Handbook of Models for Human Aging, 631–39. Elsevier, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-012369391-4/50052-7.
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Sissoko, Yaya, et Brian W. Sloboda. « Does Regional Variation in Startup Concentration Predict Employment Growth in Rural Areas of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia ? » Dans Applied Econometric Analysis, 214–42. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-1093-3.ch010.
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Measures of entrepreneurship, such as average establishment size and the prevalence of start-ups, correlate strongly with employment growth across and within urban areas. Is it possible for entrepreneurship to occur outside of urban areas and be active in rural areas such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia? There are causal links of entrepreneurial finance to industry or city growth but little link of the evidence of entrepreneurship outside of urban areas overall. This chapter examines the regional variation in startup concentration used to predict employment in the rural areas of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia by metropolitan statistical area (MSA)/micropolitan areas for the year 2017. The authors find significant differences in new firm formation rates from industrial regions to technologically progressive regions using the generalized linear models (GLM). Variations in firm birth rates are explained by industrial size, population growth, the number of startups, human capital variables, and establishments.
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Sengupta, Ramprasad. « Interdependence among Stages of Economic Development, Human Development, and the Natural Environment ». Dans Entropy Law, Sustainability, and Third Industrial Revolution, 124–50. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190121143.003.0006.
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Chapter 5 points to the interactive nature of the different aspects of development sustainability and investigates the interrelations among the different components of the overall development index using cross-country data with the help of simple econometric model of quadratic single equation type. The chapter further makes deeper analysis of the dynamic links among human development, the natural environment, and economic growth using simultaneous equation econometric models (mostly of two-stage least square type) with global cross-country data of the different time periods. The models and analysis of the chapter are based on the data of all the concerned variables presented in Chapter 4.
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Chu, C. Y. Cyrus. « Income-Specific Population Models : Steady States and Comparative Dynamics ». Dans Population Dynamics. Oxford University Press, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195121582.003.0008.
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I mentioned in chapter 1 that the standard new household economics model of fertility, derived and modified by Becker (1960), DeTray (1973), Willis (1973), and later followers, emphasized the parental choices and tradeoffs between the quantity and the quality of their children. As Becker (1960) pointed out, one motivation for the new household economics approach to fertility decisions is to construct a demand-side household-decision structure to replace Malthus’s out-of-date supply-side population theory. The fertility decision theory along these lines has been called by Schultz (1981, 1988) and Dasgupta (1995) the demand-side demography theory. One difference between the demand-side demography theory and the classical Malthusian theory is that the former approach emphasized the static decision of a micro agent, whereas the Malthusian theory described the macro dynamic pattern of the population. Thus, from a theoretical point of view, the development of the demand-side demography lacks a macro dynamic counterpart. In this chapter I shall establish a macro dynamic population theory based on a fairly general version of Becker’s and others’ static setup of fertility demand. Once we shift our focus to the household fertility decision, it is natural that the household economic variables that affect female fertility decisions, such as her wages, family income, or the opportunity cost of babysitting, will become important explanatory variables of aggregate demographic patterns. Given that the fluctuation of mortality is no longer significant in recent years and that human fertility decisions are largely affected by the above-mentioned household economic variables, then in order to explain the aggregate pattern of population movement, it is natural to classify people by these economic variables rather than by ages. This is another motivation for the derivation of a non-age-specific stable population theory. As we focus upon the macro dynamic implications of Becker’s micro static fertility decision model, it is convenient to ignore sex differences and suppress the age structure of a person by assuming that everyone lives two periods, young and old. This is very much the same as the one-sex Samuelsonian (1958) overlapping-generation model: individuals who remain in the parental household are called young; they become old when they form their own families.
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Chu, C. Y. Cyrus. « Demographic Models and Branching Processes ». Dans Population Dynamics. Oxford University Press, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195121582.003.0006.
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All models describing the dynamic pattern of human population have two common features. First, the human population is usually divided into several types, and second, each type has a type-specific stochastic reproduction rate. The traditional literature of demography has been dominated by the age-specific models of Lotka (1939) and Leslie (1945,1948), where the type refers to the age of an individual and the type-specific reproduction rates refer to the age-specific vital rates in a life table, It has been shown that, mathematically, these age-specific models can be analyzed in a more general framework, namely, the multitype branching process. Most demography researchers, however, do not bother to pursue properties of the general branching process. They prefer to follow Lotka’s (1939) age-specific renewal equation approach in proceeding with their analysis because that renewal equation is technically convenient, whereas the steady-state and dynamic properties of a general branching process are usually much more difficult to derive. Although the analytical convenience of the age-specific models has facilitated the research on age-related topics, it also tends to obscure the fact that the age-specific model is merely a special kind of branching process. When female fertility becomes a decision variable of the family and the fertility-related family decision problems expand, these age-specific models are often unworkable. Despite the difficulties inherent in applying the traditional age-specific models to these decision dimensions, researchers still hesitate to go back to the general, but more difficult, branching process for solutions. This is perhaps why, as we mentioned in chapter 1, the demand-side theory of demography has not made much progress in describing the macro aggregate pattern of the population. In this chapter, I separate the discussion into the age-specific branching process and general branching processes. I show that the steady states and ergodic properties of these models can both be established under some regularity conditions. Although the material in this chapter is mostly a reorganization of previously established mathematical results, I believe that my summary is systematic and will be helpful to most readers. All the results summarized will be used in later chapters, but aspects of branching processes that are irrelevant to our purposes will not be discussed.
Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Fertility, Human – Econometric models"
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Shubat, Oksana, et Anna Bagirova. « The Use Of Econometric Models In The Study Of Demographic Policy Measures (Based On The Example Of Fertility Stimulation In Russia) ». Dans 31st Conference on Modelling and Simulation. ECMS, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2017-0047.
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Kowarsch, Dandan, et Jingyu Wang. « The Impact of Refugees on Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean ». Dans 13th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE 2022). AHFE International, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1002294.
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The aim of this article is to explore the relationship between refugees and the host country’s economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean using a simulation modeling approach. There is a large body of work on the topic using statistics. However, one big challenge of conducting econometrics methods to unveil any correlation is that regressions are data dependent. Since the current available refugee data doesn’t truly represent the reality as there has been a quite substantial number of unregistered Venezuelan refugees in Latin America and Caribbean region since 2015. Using agent-based simulation modeling approach overcomes the challenges of data issue and passes by strict assumptions for an OLS regression to produce BLUE outcomes. In our ABM model, agents represent labors, defined as age between 16 and 65, and Venezuelan refugees. To evaluate the impact on gender inequality on employment in the host country, despite of age, agents also carry the attributes of gender, work capability, average education years, birth (matured female only), and death. Three countries Venezuela, Colombia, and Chile are modeled as patches in Netlogo . Countries own the attributes of GDP and GDP per capita at macro level. The simulated result based on the initial values suggests that in Latin America and the Caribbean, refugee growth and host country’s economy are positively correlated. In contrast, the simulated results suggest that the higher fertility rate negatively affects the labor value added outcomes. It could imply the more female refugees in the host country, the lower GDP will be. We also found that the life expectancy is correlated to economic growth, labor’s work capacity, and education years. Life expectancy could be an indicator of the overall quality of human capital. In brief, the findings might imply labor value added output or labor capacity is the driver of economic growth.
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Lee, Ming-Hsin, et Chun-Juei Chou. « Exploring the Innovation Application of Web Camera Based on Business Models - Taking Parent-Baby Communication as an Example ». Dans Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics Conference. AHFE International, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.54941/ahfe100548.
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In the high technique modern society, there are many ways to communicate with others. People anticipate the technology could not only connect to others but also help to sustain the relationship of family or friends. Recently, people turn to take internet as the main way to communicate. On the other side, in the phenomena of low fertility, the market in babies and children will be important in the future. This research wants to start from the existing web-video and web-communication technology and figures out the new ways to apply this technology in parent-baby communication or interaction. As one of the device in web-vision technology, web-camera is the device that being chosen to use in this research. Apply this technology in parent-baby communication. Let family realistically use this device, and have an interview to understand the experience that family use this device. After the interview, analyze the result and find possible way that applying this web-vision technology in parent-baby communication. Finally, use existing business models to think new application, and explore the innovation application of web-camera in parent-baby communication.
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De La Fuente-Mella, Hanns, Claudio Elórtegui Gómez et Ignacio Milies Valdivia. « Analysis of the Variables that Affect China's Presence in International News in the Context of Coronavirus ». Dans 13th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE 2022). AHFE International, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1002288.
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Western media coverage of Covid19 had a focus of special interest in China during 2020, due to globalization and the pandemic nature of the crisis. The news agendas deepened and debated the responsibility of the Asian power in the spread of the disease. However, China's international attitude and diplomatic actions based on donations of medical supplies and vaccine development also began to spread. The research uses econometric models in linear probability to determine which are the main variables that explain Chinese public diplomacy in the news of 24 countries. The investigation shows that the western media give China a high level of interference in the origin of the pandemic. However, the results indicate that certain features of Chinese public diplomacy entered significantly in the news that mentioned the Asian giant, spreading a type of international leadership that disputes positions with the global hegemony of the United States.
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Elórtegui Gómez, Claudio, et Hanns De La Fuente-Mella. « Analysis of Political Debate Programs to Identify the Elements of Political Transition Process in Chile ». Dans 13th International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE 2022). AHFE International, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.54941/ahfe1002296.
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The Chilean political transition has experienced strong questioning in recent years, especially at the level of the younger generations. These aspects have been made visible in the social mobilizations that took place in Chile in 2019 and in a growing context of political polarization, perception of corruption towards institutions and criticism of the media, spaces conceived from an agreed or semi-sovereign democracy. As a way of analyzing the political communication experienced in these original contexts of the return of Chilean democracy, the research will take a series of programs of political debates, broadcast on television between 1989 and 1991, that is, at the very beginning of the transition as historical process. The objective is through the use of probabilistic econometric models to measure the characteristics of the political debate, through the political identification of the panelists, types of participation of the participants in these programs and the dominant topics between the interactions, as a way of putting in perspective the critics towards that moment.
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Bagirova, Anna, et Oksana Shubat. « Models For Forecasting The Number Of Russian Grandparents ». Dans 35th ECMS International Conference on Modelling and Simulation. ECMS, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2021-0063.
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Russian demographic statistics does not provide information about the number of grandparents. The aim of our study is to present models for forecasting their number. We used data from the Human Fertility Database to estimate the average age of a mother at the birth of her first child. Based on the simulated age of Russian women’s entry into grandparenthood, the time series of the number of Russian grandmothers was created. To obtain prospective estimates of the number of Russian grandmothers, we tested various models used in demography to forecast population size – mathematical (based on exponential and logistic functions) and statistical (based on statistical characteristics of time series). To estimate the number of grandmothers who are significantly involved in caring for grandchildren, we used data from the Federal statistical survey. Our results are as follows: 1) there is an increase in the age of entry into grandparenthood; 2) we estimated the size of potential grandmothers in different years and we found two models which are more appropriate for forecasting: linear trend model and average absolute growth model; 3) using these models, we predicted an increase in the number of both potential and active grandmothers in the next 5 years.
Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Fertility, Human – Econometric models"
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Quak, Evert-jan. The Link Between Demography and Labour Markets in sub-Saharan Africa. Institute of Development Studies (IDS), janvier 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/k4d.2021.011.
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This rapid review synthesises the literature from academic, policy, and knowledge institution sources on how demography affects labour markets (e.g. entrants, including youth and women) and labour market outcomes (e.g. capital-per-worker, life-cycle labour supply, human capital investments) in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. One of the key findings is that the fast-growing population in sub-Saharan Africa is likely to affect the ability to get productive jobs and in turn economic growth. This normally happens when workers move from traditional (low productivity agriculture and household businesses) sectors into higher productivity sectors in manufacturing and services. In theory the literature shows that lower dependency ratios (share of the non-working age population) should increase output per capita if labour force participation rates among the working age population remain unchanged. If output per worker stays constant, then a decline in dependency ratio would lead to a rise in income per capita. Macro simulation models for sub-Saharan Africa estimate that capital per worker will remain low due to consistently low savings for at least the next decades, even in the low fertility scenario. Sub-Saharan African countries seem too poor for a quick rise in savings. As such, it is unlikely that a lower dependency ratio will initiate a dramatic increase in labour productivity. The literature notes the gender implications on labour markets. Most women combine unpaid care for children with informal and low productive work in agriculture or family enterprises. Large family sizes reduce their productive labour years significantly, estimated at a reduction of 1.9 years of productive participation per woman for each child, that complicates their move into more productive work (if available). If the transition from high fertility to low fertility is permanent and can be established in a relatively short-term period, there are long-run effects on female labour participation, and the gains in income per capita will be permanent. As such from the literature it is clear that the effect of higher female wages on female labour participation works to a large extent through reductions in fertility.