Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Fertility – Econometric models »

This study aims to analyse the socio and macroeconomic determinants of fertility in 108 countries across the globe. Focusing on the variables of inflation, income, education level and urbanization, this study employs the cross-sectional econometrics technique of Ordinary Least Squares to analyse the causal relationship between these variables and fertility. The empirical results reveal a significant and negative relationship between income and fertility in the overall model of the 108 countries, as well as in the models involving developing countries, and countries in the African, American and Asian regions. Education was found to also have a significant and negative relationship with fertility in the overall model and the developing countries. Urbanisation, on the other hand, was found to have a significant and positive relationship with fertility in the overall model, developing countries and in countries in the African and Asian regions. Inflation was the only predictor found to be not significant in all the models. As far as the least developed countries, developed countries and the countries in the European region were concerned, none of the independent variables were significant predictors of fertility. The study concludes with an examination of policy implications of the findings

AbstractIndia has gradually progressed into fertility transition over the last few decades. However, the timing and pace of this transition has varied notably in terms of both its geography and the demographic groups most affected by it. While much literature exists on the relationships between fertility level and its influence on demographic, economic, socio-cultural and policy-related factors, the potential spatial variations in the effects of these factors on the fertility level remain unaddressed. Using the most recent district-level census data (of 2011) for India, this nationwide study has identified plausible spatial dependencies and heterogeneities in the relationships between the district-wise Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) and their respective demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors. After developing a geocoded database for 621 districts of India, spatial regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were used to decipher location-based relationships between the district-level TFR and its driving forces. The results revealed that the relationships between the district-level TFR and the considered selected predictors (percentage of Muslims, urbanization, caste group, female mean age at marriage, female education, females in the labour force, net migration, sex ratio at birth and exposure to mass media) were not spatially invariant in terms of their respective strength, magnitude and direction, and furthermore, these relationships were conspicuously place- and context-specific. This study suggests that such locality-based variations and their complexities cannot be explained simply by a single narrative of either socioeconomic advancement or government policy interventions. It therefore contributes to the ongoing debate on fertility research in India by highlighting the spatial dependence and heterogeneity of the impacts made by demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors on local fertility levels. From a methodological perspective, the study also discerns that the GWR local model performs better, in terms of both model performance and prediction accuracy, compared with the conventional global model estimates.

Competent demographic policy implies an understanding by the state of the economic, social, and demographic processes taking place in society. In earlier Russian and foreign studies, the authors found a number of fertility factors, however, the direction of influence of such determinants could be opposite. Aware of the special influence of sociocultural attitudes and values of the population on the number of children in a family, the author made an attempt to identify the determinants of fertility based on an empirical study of the World Values Survey. Using statistical and econometric methods, models that reflect the determinants of fertility in modern Russia were constructed. This work revealed a positive effect on the birth rate of religiosity, traditional views and the importance of the family for the respondent. Inversely related to the number of children in a family such factors as the level of education of the population and the value of leisure.

Despite the wealth of micro–macro data on short-term demographic dynamics, the impact of metropolitan growth and economic downturns on local fertility is still under-investigated in advanced economies. Recent studies in low-fertility contexts have assumed suburban birth rates as being systematically higher than urban and rural rates. This assumption (hereafter, known as the ‘suburban fertility hypothesis’) was grounded on stylized facts and spatial regularities that imply a significant role of both macro (contextual) and micro (behavioral) factors positively influencing fertility in suburban locations. To verify such a hypothesis from a macro (contextual) perspective, the present study compares the general fertility rate of urban, suburban, and rural settlements of the Athens’ metropolitan region (Greece) at various observation years between 1860 and 2020. Long-term Athens’ growth represented a sort of ‘quasi-experiment’ for Mediterranean Europe, linking sequential urban stages and distinctive waves of economic expansion and recession. Using multivariate exploratory analysis and global/local econometric models, a dominant ‘rural’ fertility regime was recorded for 1860 and 1884. A characteristic ‘urban’ fertility regime was, instead, found over a relatively long, intermediate period between 1956 and 1990. Higher fertility in suburban settlements (10 km away from downtown Athens, on average) was, finally, observed since 2000. Considering a sufficiently long-time interval, the existence of multiple fertility regimes along the distance gradient has demonstrated how fertility dynamics are intrinsically bonded with metropolitan growth, economic downturns, and social transformations in Mediterranean Europe.

In 1972 the United Nations Fund for Population Activities initiated support for a programme of research within the International Labour Organization on population and employment. Determinants of fertility have been a major theme in this research programme, as is evident in an earlier Progress Report on the programme [3]. The book here reviewed is an attempt to distil some general conclusions from this research, and to present ideas and evidence not included in the 1982 publication. The first section of the book contains a summary of theories of fertility determination; a brief description of the findings of empirical research on fertility, and of the problems of empirical research on the economics of fertility; some comments on the relevance for policy of research on the economics of fertility; and some suggestions for more fruitful research strategies. The second part deals with selected methodological problems: the definition and measurement of fertility; econometric problems of analysing cross-sectional and time-series data; estimation and interpretation of aggregate data; specification and estimation of models fertility; and the uses of simulation techniques in studying the effects of economic policy on fertility. As this list of topics indicates, the emphasis in this section (and in most of the book) is on research on fertility by economists. The last chapter in the second section, however, describes anthropological approaches to the study of fertility. The final section contains six case studies on Kenya, Nigeria, rural India, rural Turkey, Yugoslavia, and a comparative study of Costa Rica and Mexico.

The aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants of employment decisions (entry and exit from employment) of married or cohabiting women in Spain. We use the Fertility, Family and Values Survey of 2006, conducted by the Sociological Research Centre in 2006. The econometric technique deployed consists in different discrete-time duration models using Meyer’s application (Meyer, 1990) to Prentice-Gloeckler model (1978) that enables control for unobserved heterogeneity. The results show, among other things, that highly educated women and women from more recent cohorts are more likely to (re-)enter the labour market after marriage. Mothers of small children are more likely to exit employment than non-mothers.

The study aims to explain the relationship between economic development measured by GDP per capita on PPP and female labor force participation rate (FLFPR) in Bangladesh. Using Time series data from (1991-2019), extracted from secondary data sources; the study develops three models to test the U-shape hypothesis. The study uses control variables such as Female Unemployment rate, Fertility rate, and Urbanization. The Ordinary Least Square Regression Analysis is used to run the regression by using Econometric Software STATA (version12.0). The regression result indicates that the Female unemployment rate has a positive impact on FLFPR. Fertility rate and Urbanization have a negative effect. There is a significant impact of the quadratic GDP per capita PPP on FLFPR. The overall results of this paper suggest that a U-shape does not exist in Bangladesh. The research investigates an upward pattern in the female labor force participation rate by measuring the relationship between economic growth and female labor force participation rate in Bangladesh.

Purpose. The purpose of this paper was to highlight the results of the study of the influence of the soil fertility and financial support on the formation of sustainable competitiveness of Ukrainian agricultural enterprises. Methodology / approach. To achieve the purpose, we used such methods: correlation analysis (to identify and assess the close relationship between the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils, financial support per hectare, and the sustainable competitiveness); econometric modeling (to develop a mathematical model of the dependence of the subindex of competitiveness by the yield on the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and the financial support per hectare); economic-statistical and monographic (for the assessment and analysis of the influence of the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and financial support per hectare on the formation of sustainable competitiveness); abstract-and-logical (for generalization and analysis of the research results); graphical (for the visual representation of the revealed dependencies). The study was performed on a selected sample of agricultural enterprises of districts of Kharkiv, Volyn and Chernihiv region, which represent all the soil-climatic zones of Ukraine. The time range of this research covers the years 2010–2016. The database of the 189 observations in Kharkiv region, 93 – in Volyn region and 88 – in Chernihiv region was as the empirical basis. Results. This paper presents empirical evidence for the impact of the soil fertility and financial support on the formation of sustainable competitiveness of enterprises. The obtained results prove the hypothesis of a positive relationship between the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils, financial support per hectare, and the sustainable competitiveness of subjects, however, the level of impact of soil fertility differs significantly in different soil-climatic conditions. It is shown that soil fertility and financial support can sometimes act as substitutes, for example, in a zone of insufficient moisture or low soil fertility. Increasing the financial support for agricultural production per hectare may be a strategy to increase productivity when soils are less fertile. Originality / scientific novelty. For the first time, one- and two-factor linear and quadratic econometric models were developed, which made it possible to carry out quantitative assessment of the impact of the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and the financial support per hectare on the formation of the subindex of competitiveness by the yield in various soil-climatic zones of Ukraine. The provision on the formation of the subindex of competitiveness by the yield under the conditions of the economic law of diminishing returns, was further developed. Practical value / implications. The main results of the study can be used for (i) estimation and forecasting of the level of competitiveness depending on the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and the financial support per hectare; (ii) determining the effect of measures to improve the soil fertility on the competitiveness; (iii) determining the impact of soil degradation on competitiveness of agribusiness entities; (iv) identification of reserves to improve competitiveness.

At present Russian Federation in a whole and most of its regions face the problem of justifying the social and economic policy, that ensures the shift from prolonged depopulation to the regime of expanded reproduction of the population. The proposed methodology for such a justification is based on the designing the econometric models, that describe the patterns of objective indicators of population’s natural movement intensity, depending on the main “material” factors, determining the characteristics of its demographic behavior (standard of living, health care expenditures, payments for children, etc.). As such indicators, it is proposed to use the marginal growth rate or its refined modifications, which are calculated only on the basis of sex-age-specific fertility and mortality rates and do not depend on changes in age structures. Such marginal indicators more reliably characterize the potential of self-reproduction of the population in comparison to the total and standardized fertility and mortality rates, commonly used in demography and corresponding to them population growth rates. The paper presents estimates of the marginal rates of natural movement of the Russian population in 1990—2017, which indicate, that the decline in the potential of demographic self-reproduction in the last decade of the 20th century in Russia was quite significant, and the rate of its recovery in the 21st century was not high enough, thus, as a consequence, by 2017 the country had not yet shifted to the regime of expanded reproduction, although in some of its regions such a regime had already been established in 2007—2012. The econometric model, presented in the work, reflecting the dependence of the marginal growth rate of Russian population on the standard of living and the expenditures on demographic policy measures, shows that the shift of the country as a whole to the regime of sustainable extended demographic self-reproduction is possible by 2025—2030, subject to a 2—3% annual increase in the levels of these factors.

Defence date: 10 June 2022
Examining Board: Prof. Thomas Crossley (EUI, Supervisor); Prof. Alessandro Tarozzi (EUI, Co-Supervisor); Prof. Nadia Campaniello (University of Torino and Collegio Carlo Alberto); Prof. Emilia Del Bono (ISER, University of Essex)
This thesis is composed of three independent essays in applied microeconomics. The first contributes to the field of labor and health economics and analyzes the effect of local unemployment rates on fertility rates, abortion rates, and the abortions to pregnancies ratio. The second chapter speaks to health and development economics literature, evaluating the impact of agricultural price spikes on farmers’ nutrition, considering the case study of quinoa in Peru. The topic of the final chapter lies within the fields of gender and political economics and discusses the effect of gender representation within local governments on expenditure in social services. Even though the three chapters seem separate, all of them share my interest in gender and health economics, as well as causal estimation. In Chapter 1, I analyze the effect of local unemployment rates on fertility rates, abortion rates, and the abortions to pregnancies ratio, combining population statistics and administrative data on induced abortions performed in Italy between 2004 and 2016. This is the first paper to causally investigate the effect of local economic conditions on abortion choice. Using a shift-share instrument measuring labor demand, I exploit demand-driven shocks to unemployment. A one standard deviation (sd) increase in unemployment induces a 0.9 sd decrease in the fertility rate, a 0.27 sd increase in the abortion rate, and a 0.35 sd increase in the abortion ratio. In percentage terms, these changes mean that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate brings about a 1.7% decrease in the general fertility rate, a 1.4% increase in the abortion rate, and a 1.8% increase in the abortion ratio. These effects are driven by women above 25 years old, and are particularly large in the 35-49 age group. In Chapter 2, I consider the impact of food price changes on farmers’ particular nutrition, as part of a discussion of the effect of preference shifts in the global North on welfare in the global South. Previous research has yielded contrasting results, while this question is increasingly relevant. The case of quinoa provides an ideal event study, where quinoa prices steeply increased from 2008 onwards, led by increasing international demand. I study the effect of this price shock on the nutrition of Peruvian households in a difference in differences framework. Results point to a limited effect on nutritional outcomes: in the short- term, neither caloric intake nor diet quality significantly increases in quinoa-farming households and districts. Chapter 3 investigates the effect of executive female representation on the provision of different social services, in the context of Italy. While Italy is a high-income country, many families still rely on women to take care of children, the elderly, and family members in need of assistance. We exploit a 2014 reform that mandated 40% gender quotas in the executive committees of municipalities with more than 3000 inhabitants. To account for confounding policies introduced at the same cutoff, we employ a difference-in-discontinuities empirical strategy. We find that while the policy was effective in increasing female representation, it did not have an impact on any category of social services expenditures.
1 Not the right time for children: unemployment, fertility, and abortion 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Institutional framework 1.3 Data and descriptive statistics 1.3.1 Data and construction of the sample 1.3.2 Dependent variables 1.3.3 Descriptive statistics 1.4 Empirical strategy 1.5 Results 1.5.1 Age heterogeneity 1.6 Robustness checks 1.7 Conclusion -- References -- Appendix 1.A Additional results 1.A.1 Age heterogeneity - response to the aggregate unemployment rate 1.A.2 Geographic heterogeneity 1.A.3 Robustness checks -- Appendix 1.B Bartik instrument 1.B.1 Industry sectors 1.B.2 First stage relationship 1.B.3 Alternative Bartik instruments -- Appendix 1.C Descriptive analysis of the recessio 1.C.1 The recession in Italy . 1.C.2 North and South -- Appendix 1.D Data appendix 2 Do food price shocks affect farmers’ nutrition? A study on rising quinoa prices in Peru 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Quinoa: history, characteristics, production 2.3 Data and sample selection 2.4 Empirical strategy and sample selection 2.4.1 Pre-treatment characteristics 2.4.2 Parallel trends 2.5 Results 2.6 Conclusion -- References -- Appendix 2.A Descriptives 2.A.1 Summary statistics 2.A.2 Sample selection - balance of characteristics 2.A.3 Quinoa - production and consumption -- Appendix 2.B Parallel trends -- Appendix 2.C Other results -- Appendix 2.D Nutrition estimation 2.D.1 Estimation of food and nutrient consumption 2.D.2 Estimation of diet quality 2.D.3 Diet index and caloric intake -- Appendix 2.E Institutional initiatives 3 Executive Gender Quotas and Social Services: Evidence from Italy 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Institutions and Data 3.2.1 Institutional Framework 3.2.2 Data Sources and Sample Selection 3.2.3 Descriptive Statistics 3.3 Conceptual Framework 3.4 Empirical Strategy 3.4.1 Confounding Policies and Treatments’ Definition 3.4.2 Potential Outcomes, Assumptions, and Estimator 3.4.3 Estimation 3.5 Results 3.5.1 Share and Number of Women in Municipal Executive 3.5.2 Effect on Social Spending 3.5.3 Internal Validity 3.6 Robustness 3.7 Conclusion -- References -- Appendix 3.A Empirical Strategy: Diff-in-disc in Our Setting 3.A.1 Local Parallel Trends, Expenditure Subgroups 3.A.2 Results on Total Accrued Expenses Appendix 3.B Pre-existing policies and potential confounders 3.B.1 Changes in Council and Executive Size 3.B.2 Joint Provision of Childcare

Defence date: 12 May 2003
Examining board: Prof. Andrea Ichino, EUI, Supervisor ; Prof. Frank Vella, EUI ; Prof. Daniela Del Boca, Università di Torino ; Prof. John Ermisch, ISER, Essex
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digitised archive of EUI PhD theses completed between 2013 and 2017

This study investigates what socioeconomic factors determine the varying fertility rates among developed and developing nations and the implications of this information. Social and economic variables are analyzed using a panel of 20 nations with annual data from 1991-2015 to determine the most sizable and significant variables that impact fertility rates. A one-way fixed effects model is utilized. This study includes an aggregate model as well as two models isolating the fertility rates of developed nations and of developing nations, in accordance with Chow-Test results. The results find that there is a divergence between the determinants of fertility rates, based upon the development level. It is clear from these results that fertility and population control issues are specific to the state of a nation's development; thus, blanket policies will not fully address the issue of excessive population growth.

This concluding chapter discusses the progress that has been made with matching models on both the theoretical and the empirical front. Regarding theory, the power and the limits of the transferable utility (TU) model are now better understood. The TU framework can (admittedly under specific assumptions on preferences) encompass most aspects of family economics, including fertility, domestic production, risk sharing, and the consumption of public commodities. On the empirical side, the econometrics of matching models have seen several major advances, with the Choo-Siow model as a prime example. The chapter also considers what matching models teach us about reality, such as the asymmetry between male and female demand for higher education, and the relationship between assortative matching and inequality. Furthermore, a host of social issues can only be analyzed from a general equilibrium perspective; this is evident in the case of Roe v. Wade.

The aim of this article is to explore the relationship between refugees and the host country’s economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean using a simulation modeling approach. There is a large body of work on the topic using statistics. However, one big challenge of conducting econometrics methods to unveil any correlation is that regressions are data dependent. Since the current available refugee data doesn’t truly represent the reality as there has been a quite substantial number of unregistered Venezuelan refugees in Latin America and Caribbean region since 2015. Using agent-based simulation modeling approach overcomes the challenges of data issue and passes by strict assumptions for an OLS regression to produce BLUE outcomes. In our ABM model, agents represent labors, defined as age between 16 and 65, and Venezuelan refugees. To evaluate the impact on gender inequality on employment in the host country, despite of age, agents also carry the attributes of gender, work capability, average education years, birth (matured female only), and death. Three countries Venezuela, Colombia, and Chile are modeled as patches in Netlogo . Countries own the attributes of GDP and GDP per capita at macro level. The simulated result based on the initial values suggests that in Latin America and the Caribbean, refugee growth and host country’s economy are positively correlated. In contrast, the simulated results suggest that the higher fertility rate negatively affects the labor value added outcomes. It could imply the more female refugees in the host country, the lower GDP will be. We also found that the life expectancy is correlated to economic growth, labor’s work capacity, and education years. Life expectancy could be an indicator of the overall quality of human capital. In brief, the findings might imply labor value added output or labor capacity is the driver of economic growth.