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1
de Sa, Paul. « European energy to 2020 : A scenario approach ». Energy Policy 25, no 12 (octobre 1997) : 1039–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0301-4215(97)00087-6.
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Nagy, Orsolya. « Renewable energy resources in the EU (Policy scenario) ». Acta Agraria Debreceniensis, no 51 (10 février 2013) : 143–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.34101/actaagrar/51/2079.
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The use of renewable energies has a long past, even though its share of the total energy use is rather low in European terms. However, the tendencies are definitely favourable which is further strengthened by the dedication of the European Union to sustainable development and combat against climate change. The European Union is on the right track in achieving its goal which is to be able to cover 20% its energy need from renewable energy resources by 2020. The increased use of wind, solar, water, tidal, geothermal and biomass energy will reduce the energy import dependence of the European Union and it will stimulate innovation.
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Criqui, Patrick, et Silvana Mima. « European climate—energy security nexus : A model based scenario analysis ». Energy Policy 41 (février 2012) : 827–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.061.
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Bórawski, Piotr, Lisa Holden, Marek Bartłomiej Bórawski et Bartosz Mickiewicz. « Perspectives of Biodiesel Development in Poland against the Background of the European Union ». Energies 15, no 12 (13 juin 2022) : 4332. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15124332.
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Biofuels are becoming more important in the renewable energy sources mix. Liquid biofuels are products of agriculture. Bioethanol can be prepared from corn, beetroot and other plants. Biodiesel is mainly made from rapeseed. This paper presents information about biodiesel development in Poland, as well as some background information about its development in the European Union (EU). We analyzed the data about biofuels in the literature, and provide statistical data about liquid biofuel in Poland and other countries of the EU. The aim of the study is to assess the viability of liquid biofuel development in Poland. The base for biodiesel production in Poland and the EU is rapeseed. The production yields and sown area of rapeseed increased in Poland from 2005–2020. This was due to integration and European Union policies which aim to supply clean energy. The energy mix in Poland differs from that of the EU. Solid biofuels have made up the biggest share of renewable energy sources in Poland (73.4%) and the EU (40.1%). Poland has smaller share of wind energy, biogas, heat pump, water energy, solar anergy, municipal waste and geothermal energy in its renewable energy sources compared to the rest of the EU. Only with solid and liquid biofuels is the share of renewable energy sources larger in Poland compared to the EU averages. Poland has decreased its share of solid biofuels and water energy among its renewable energy sources, while other sources have increased. Poland is investing to increase its renewable energy sources. To analyze the opportunities for biodiesel production in Poland, we used the scenario method of analysis. We outlined three scenarios. The first is increasing the production of biodiesel by 3% each year for the next three years. The second is production remains unchanged, i.e., at the 2020 level. The last scenario is decreasing production by 3% each year. According to the first scenario, the total demand for rapeseed for energy and food purposes will be 375 thousand tons in 2025. Such a scenario is very likely to occur because of the growing demand for biodiesel and edible oil. The current situation with Ukraine and the Russian Federation will create an increase in demand for rapeseed, leading to higher prices.
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Kigle, Stephan, Michael Ebner et Andrej Guminski. « Greenhouse Gas Abatement in EUROPE—A Scenario-Based, Bottom-Up Analysis Showing the Effect of Deep Emission Mitigation on the European Energy System ». Energies 15, no 4 (12 février 2022) : 1334. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15041334.
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Greenhouse gas emissions need to be drastically reduced to mitigate the environmental impacts caused by climate change, and to lead to a transformation of the European energy system. A model landscape consisting of four final energy consumption sector models with high spatial (NUTS-3) and temporal (hourly) resolution and the multi-energy system model ISAaR is extended and applied to investigate the transformation pathway of the European energy sector in the deep emission mitigation scenario solidEU. The solidEU scenario describes not only the techno-economic but also the socio-political contexts, and it includes the EU27 + UK, Norway, and Switzerland. The scenario analysis shows that volatile renewable energy sources (vRES) dominate the energy system in 2050. In addition, the share of flexible sector coupling technologies increases to balance electricity generation from vRES. Seasonal differences are balanced by hydrogen storage with a seasonal storage profile. The deployment rates of vRES in solidEU show that a fast, profound energy transition is necessary to achieve European climate protection goals.
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Bairrão, Diego, João Soares, José Almeida, John F. Franco et Zita Vale. « Green Hydrogen and Energy Transition : Current State and Prospects in Portugal ». Energies 16, no 1 (3 janvier 2023) : 551. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en16010551.
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Hydrogen is a promising commodity, a renewable secondary energy source, and feedstock alike, to meet greenhouse gas emissions targets and promote economic decarbonization. A common goal pursued by many countries, the hydrogen economy receives a blending of public and private capital. After European Green Deal, state members created national policies focused on green hydrogen. This paper presents a study of energy transition considering green hydrogen production to identify Portugal’s current state and prospects. The analysis uses energy generation data, hydrogen production aspects, CO2 emissions indicators and based costs. A comprehensive simulation estimates the total production of green hydrogen related to the ratio of renewable generation in two different scenarios. Then a comparison between EGP goals and Portugal’s transport and energy generation prospects is made. Portugal has an essential renewable energy matrix that supports green hydrogen production and allows for meeting European green hydrogen 2030–2050 goals. Results suggest that promoting the conversion of buses and trucks into H2-based fuel is better for CO2 reduction. On the other hand, given energy security, thermoelectric plants fueled by H2 are the best option. The aggressive scenario implies at least 5% more costs than the moderate scenario, considering economic aspects.
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Oghenekaro, Ruseh Elohor, et Shashi Kant. « Interactions between proposed energy-mix scenarios and non-energy Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) : a Sub-Sahara African perspective ». Environmental Research Communications 4, no 3 (1 mars 2022) : 035002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ac5764.
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Abstract Sub- Sahara Africa (SSA) has the lowest access to energy globally which is partly responsible for its dismal socio-economic indices. The continent, however, has the unique opportunity to fuel its sustainable development using clean and sustainable energy. Given the continent’s aspirations, as well as its position and peculiarities within the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as its hosting up to 90% of the world’s poorest countries, and generally lagging behind in development as most countries in Africa are not on track to meet the SDGs with the exception of the SDG on climate action, an assessment of the interactions and implications between the goal to provide access to clean, reliable, affordable, sustainable, and modern energy (SDG 7) and the other non-energy related SDGs is important for coherent cross-sectoral sustainable development planning and decision-making. This paper analyzes the interactions between SDG 7 and selected non-energy SDGs for three energy-mix scenarios—the current (2018), 2040 energy mix scenario proposed by International Energy Agency (IEA), and 2065 energy mix scenario proposed by Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. The analyses are done for two countries - Nigeria and Ethiopia—that capture the wide variation in economic growth and energy sources across SSA. The analyses were carried out by adapting a seven-point scoring typology proposed by Nilsson et al (2016). The results indicate that in the case of Nigeria, the interactions between SDG 7 and many non-energy SDGs, such as SDGs 2, 6, and 13, become negative for the IEA 2040 scenario while they were positive for 2018 scenario. For the same two scenarios (IEA 2040 and the current), for Ethiopia, there are some negative influences on selected non-energy SDGs, but the direction of overall interactions does not change from positive to negative. In the case of JRC 2065 scenario, there are marginal negative influences on some non-energy SDGs, but neither in Nigeria nor in Ethiopia, there is no complete reverse change from positive to negative for any non-energy SDGs. Hence, JRC 2065 scenario is preferred. The study concludes with recommendations for policy interventions that would prevent the change of the interactions that move from positive in the 2018 scenario towards negative in the 2065 scenario (such as those that protect the rights of local communities to natural resources), as well as policies that may reduce the influence of negative interactions seen in both scenarios (such as reduction of air pollution).
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KNOPF, BRIGITTE, YEN-HENG HENRY CHEN, ENRICA DE CIAN, HANNAH FÖRSTER, AMIT KANUDIA, IOANNA KARKATSOULI, ILKKA KEPPO, TIINA KOLJONEN, KATJA SCHUMACHER et DETLEF P. VAN VUUREN. « BEYOND 2020 — STRATEGIES AND COSTS FOR TRANSFORMING THE EUROPEAN ENERGY SYSTEM ». Climate Change Economics 04, supp01 (novembre 2013) : 1340001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007813400010.
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The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) study systematically explores the energy system transition required to meet the European goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050. The 80% scenario is compared to a reference case that aims to achieve a 40% GHG reduction target. The paper investigates mitigation strategies beyond 2020 and the interplay between different decarbonization options. The models present different technology pathways for the decarbonization of Europe, but a common finding across the scenarios and models is the prominent role of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. In particular, wind power and bioenergy increase considerably beyond current deployment levels. Up to 2030, the transformation strategies are similar across all models and for both levels of emission reduction. However, mitigation becomes more challenging after 2040. With some exceptions, our analysis agrees with the main findings of the "Energy Roadmap 2050" presented by the European Commission.
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Hundertmark, Stephan, et Daniel Lancelle. « A Scenario for a Future European Shipboard Railgun ». IEEE Transactions on Plasma Science 43, no 5 (mai 2015) : 1194–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tps.2015.2403863.
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Kravchenko, Y. B. « European energy transition : what are the perspectives ? » Mezhdunarodnaja jekonomika (The World Economics), no 9 (30 août 2022) : 655–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.33920/vne-04-2209-04.
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The article analyzes the prerequisites and prospects of the energy transition in the EU. The author identifi es two key factors that dictate the need to transform the European energy system –requirement to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels and desire to tackle the climate crisis. Special attention is paid to the REPowerEU plan, which is a comprehensive response to the hardships and global energy market disruption caused by Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. The main idea of the plan is that Europe potentially gets more opportunities to abandon Russian fuel faster by acting as a Union. It is found that the measures in the Plan can help to respond to this ambition, through energy savings, diversifi cation of energy supplies, and accelerated rollout of renewable energy to replace fossil fuels in homes, industry and power generation. The green transformation may not only strengthen economic growth and security in Europe and its partner countries, but also make a significant contribution to the fi ght against climate change. The ways of implementing the energy transition and scenarios for the development of European energy are considered in detail. It is concluded that regardless of the development scenario, the main need of the EU will be covered by renewable energy sources in a long-term perspective. Because they include biomass, biomethane, biofuels, wind, solar and geothermal energy, the demand will de facto be covered by diff erent sources. In practice, this means redefi ning the structure of the European energy market towards diversifi cation. Since there used to be a dominant energy carrier, it is a unique phenomenon in the history of the European energy industry.
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Artyukhova, Nadiia, Inna Tiutiunyk, Sylwester Bogacki, Tomasz Wołowiec, Oleksandr Dluhopolskyi et Yevhen Kovalenko. « Scenario Modeling of Energy Policies for Sustainable Development ». Energies 15, no 20 (19 octobre 2022) : 7711. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15207711.
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The article deals with the impacts of economic, ecological, and social development scenarios in ensuring sustainable energy development. EU countries were the statistical bases of the study; the assessment period was from 2000 to 2019. The information bases of the research were the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the European Commission data. Based on the generalized method of moments, the authors investigated the dependence of energy consumption on economic, environmental, and social development factors. The results confirm the positive relationship between renewable energy consumption and GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, and energy depletion. A negative relationship between the consumption of renewable energy, CO2 emissions, and domestic gas emissions was proved. Based on intelligent data analysis methods (methods involving one-dimensional branching CART and agglomeration), countries were clustered depending on the nature of the energy development policy; portraits of these clusters were formalized. The study results can be useful to authorized bodies when determining the most effective mechanisms for forming and implementing sustainable energy development policies.
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Wałdykowski, Piotr, Joanna Adamczyk et Maciej Dorotkiewicz. « Sustainable Urban Transport—Why a Fast Investment in a Complete Cycling Network Is Most Profitable for a City ». Sustainability 14, no 1 (23 décembre 2021) : 119. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14010119.
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The development of safe cycling as a mode of transport is an important objective of the transformation towards sustainable mobility in European cities. A significant number of European cities are faced with the need to implement the assumptions of the European Green Deal, of which the promotion of sustainable urban transport is a part. The article presented a simulation of the Perfect Cycling City Model in real conditions that inspired the design of two scenarios for the fast development of bicycle routes in a key transport network area in Warsaw. Scenario 1 assumes building subsidiary bicycle routes and links between the main routes. In Scenario 2, the development of all optimal cycling links at the local level is assumed. An increase in cycling participation is expected in both scenarios. The comparison of projected costs of each scenario indicated that building a complete network of connections is more profitable in terms of increased cycling participation and could counter the dominance of private car use. For this to happen, measures encouraging individuals combined with improved safety and convenience of cycling around the city must be undertaken.
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Kavals, Edgars, et Julija Gusca. « Life Cycle Assessment-Based Approach to Forecast the Response of Waste Management Policy Targets to the Environment ». Environmental and Climate Technologies 25, no 1 (1 janvier 2021) : 121–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/rtuect-2021-0008.
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Abstract Inadequate municipal waste management, associated with a dominance of waste landfilling and low efficiency of resource and energy recovery, is the major challenge towards circular economy targets for some European Union countries, including Latvia. The aim of the study is to evaluate environmental performance from implementation of waste management policy goals in waste management systems of Latvia applying life cycle assessment methodology. The waste management system in Latvia was evaluated for two scenarios: baseline situation (based on statistical data from 2016) and future scenario – 2030. Baseline scenario assessment results show the existing material and energy recovery potential from municipal solid waste generated in Latvia. Meanwhile, results obtained from the 2030 scenario demonstrated that boosting recovery rates of plastic by 20 % and organic waste by 20 % can contribute to the minimization of life cycle environmental impacts (human health, resources, climate change, ecosystems) by 1.8 % and organic by 3.6 % correspondingly.
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Kenworthy, Jeffrey R., et Helena Svensson. « Exploring the Energy Saving Potential in Private, Public and Non-Motorized Transport for Ten Swedish Cities ». Sustainability 14, no 2 (14 janvier 2022) : 954. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14020954.
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Transport energy conservation research in urban transport systems dates back principally to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) “Arab Oil Embargo” (1973–1974) and the Iranian revolution (1979), when global oil supplies became threatened and costs rose steeply. Two subsequent Gulf Wars (1991 and 2003) highlighted the dangerous geo-political dimensions of Middle-Eastern oil. In latter times, the urgency to reduce global CO2 output to avoid catastrophic climate change has achieved great prominence. How to reduce passenger transport energy use therefore remains an important goal, which this paper pursues in ten Swedish cities, based on five scenarios: (1) increasing the relatively low public transport (PT) seat occupancy in each Swedish city to average European levels (buses 35%, light rail 48%, metro 60% and suburban rail 35%); (2) doubling existing PT seat occupancy in each Swedish city; (3) increasing existing car occupancy in each Swedish city by 10%; (4) decreasing existing energy use per car vehicle kilometer by 15%; (5) increasing existing modal split for daily trips by non-motorized modes to 50% in each city. A sixth “best-case scenario” is also explored by simultaneously combining scenarios 2 to 5. The data used in the paper come from systematic empirical research on each of the ten Swedish cities. When applied individually, scenario 2 is the most successful for reducing passenger transport energy use, scenarios 1 and 4 are next in magnitude and produce approximately equal energy savings, followed by scenario 5, with scenario 3 being the least successful. The best-case, combined scenario could save 1183 million liters of gasoline equivalent in the ten cities, representing almost a 60% saving over their existing 2015 total private passenger transport energy use and equivalent to the combined 2015 total annual private transport energy use of Stockholm, Malmö and Jönköping. Such findings also have important positive implications for the de-carbonization of cities. The policy implications of these findings and the strategies for increasing public transport, walking and cycling, boosting car occupancy and decreasing vehicular fuel consumption in Swedish cities are discussed.
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Luksta, Ilze, Pauls Asaris, Maksims Feofilovs et Dagnija Blumberga. « Bioresource Value Model : Case of Crop Production ». Environmental and Climate Technologies 26, no 1 (1 janvier 2022) : 1128–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/rtuect-2022-0085.
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Abstract The future of sustainable development is the bioeconomy with both global and local renewable energy solutions. The updated Bioeconomy Strategy and the Green Deal serves as prove of European Commission commitment for transformation towards a sustainable and climate-neutral European Union. This process is characterized with an enormous complexity and should be studied thoroughly for designing transition pathways. Scientifically sound methods can support policymaking in dealing with uncertainty and complexity taking place within definition of transition pathways. This article reviews the existing bioeconomy development models, and presents a novel model, which focus on agriculture – one of the main directions of the national economy. The concept of model is tested within a case study of crop production sector in Latvia. The results of case study show economically viable scenario for added value target set for 2030. In the crop sector, the baseline scenario and three alternative scenarios were analysed. The highest added value and the most advantageous alternative scenario is for fibre powder produced from cereal bran (in the bioeconomy sector, food provides the highest added value).
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Tsantili, Angeliki, Irene Koronaki et Vasilis Polydoros. « Maximizing Energy Performance of University Campus Buildings through BIM Software and Multicriteria Optimization Methods ». Energies 16, no 5 (27 février 2023) : 2291. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en16052291.
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University buildings have high energy requirements due to their size, numerous users, and activities, which considerably contribute to environmental contamination. Implementing energy-saving solutions in these structures has a favorable influence on the economics and the conservation of energy resources. A higher education building’s energy behavior can be simulated using software to identify the optimal strategies that result in energy savings. In this research, Autodesk Revit, Autodesk Insight, and Green Building Studio are among the programs utilized to examine the energy efficiency of the university building in four European cities. Following the development of several energy-saving scenarios for the building, the offered solutions are evaluated based on their annual energy consumption, energy costs, and CO2 emissions. Finally, multicriteria analysis techniques such as the AHP and PROMETHEE are applied to choose the best scenario for each instance. The study’s findings indicate that the ASHRAE Terminal Package Heat Pump scenario performed well in all of the cities examined, reducing yearly energy usage by 43.75% in Wien and annual energy costs by 47.31% in Mallorca. In comparison, the scenario utilizing a high-efficiency VAV system with a gas boiler and chiller came in last in all situations, resulting in a decrease of 12.67% in Mallorca’s annual energy usage and a reduction of 17.57% in Palermo’s annual energy expenses.
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Koch, Katharina, Bastian Alt et Matthias Gaderer. « Dynamic Modeling of a Decarbonized District Heating System with CHP Plants in Electricity-Based Mode of Operation ». Energies 13, no 16 (10 août 2020) : 4134. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13164134.
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The targets of global CO2 reduction outline the importance of decarbonizing the heating and cooling sector, which consume half of the final energy in the European Union (EU). Consequently, heating network operators must adapt to growing requirements for carbon neutrality. Energy system modeling allows the simulation of individual network compositions and regulations, while considering electricity market signals for a more efficient plant operation. The district heating model, programmed for this work, covers a measured heat demand with peak load boiler, biomass-fired combined heat and power (CHP) plant, and biomass heating plant supply. The CHP plant reacts to electricity prices of the European Power Exchange market and uses a long-term heat storage to decouple heat and electricity production. This paper presents the results of three annual simulation scenarios aimed at carbon neutrality for the analyzed heating network. Two scenarios achieve a climate-neutral system by replacing the peak load boiler generation. The exclusive storage capacity expansion in the first scenario does not lead to the intended decarbonization. The second scenario increases the output of the CHP plant, while the third simulation uses the biomass heating plant supply. This additional heat producer enables a significant reduction in storage capacity and a higher CHP plant participation in the considered electricity market.
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Beccarello, Massimo, et Giacomo Di Foggia. « Economic Impact of Energy Efficiency Policies : A Scenario Analysis ». International Journal of Economics and Finance 14, no 12 (15 octobre 2022) : 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v14n12p1.
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The number of countries that have pledged to uphold the 2050 decarbonization targets is constantly growing, and many have established strategies and planned related investments for the coming years. The economic impact of decarbonization and energy efficiency policies has become a major topic of discussion in the global effort to mitigate climate change and contain the temperature rise to less than 2 degrees. Previous literature has identified the risks and opportunities of decarbonization policies, especially concerning the rebound effects and the situation that may arise if, due to persistent biases and the costs of fulfilling climate policies, industries were to transfer production to countries where laxer emission constraints are in force. At the core of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is the Sustainable Development Goals, which are a global call for action regardless of countries’ level of economic development. With Goal 12 on sustainable production and consumption and Goal 14 on climate change mitigation in mind, we provide an economic impact analysis of decarbonization and energy efficiency policies. We compare two scenarios based on the Italian context. The reference scenario is a simulation that shows the development of energy-efficient technologies if the targets set in the national energy strategy were to be met without additional binding targets being added. The policy scenario sees energy efficiency as the principal driver of decarbonization in the presence of a national emissions constraint lasting until 2030, as envisaged by the European Commission. The results confirm that certain risks and opportunities arise from effective policymaking. The effects of decarbonization and energy efficiency policies in the reference scenario would increase final demand by approximately €278.34 billion and the policy scenario would increase it by approximately €380.36 billion by 2030.
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Lazovic, Ivan, Valentina Turanjanin, Biljana Vucicevic, Marina Jovanovic et Rastko Jovanovic. « Influence of the building energy efficiency on indoor air temperature : The case of a typical school classroom in Serbia ». Thermal Science, no 00 (2022) : 67. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/tsci220125067l.
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Greenhouse gases emission as well as total energy consumption in buildings of public importance, such as schools, municipal buildings, health care centers, can be significantly reduced by increasing buildings? energy efficiency. Buildings? energy consumption adds up to 37% of total energy consumption in the European Union countries. In the Republic of Serbia this amount is significantly higher, about 50%. School buildings are considered as one of the most diverse structures from the point of energy-efficient design and construction. The main aim of this paper is to determine the most appropriate settings for possible improvements in energy efficiency and temperature comfort inside a typical primary school classroom in Serbia. The energy efficiency analysis was performed during the heating season for the naturally ventilated primary school classroom located in the Eastern Serbia region. The analysis was performed using novel computational fluid dynamics model, suggested in this paper. The suggested model was used to solve two hypothetical scenarios. The first scenario simulates the temperature field in classroom with current energy characteristic envelope of the school building. The calculated numerical data from the first scenario were compared with in-situ measurements values of temperature and wall heat fluxes and showed satisfying accuracy. The second scenario was simulated to indicate possible improvements, which would allow energy consumption decrease and thermal quality enhancement. The analyzed results, calculated using the suggested numerical model under the second scenario conditions, showed that using appropriate set of measures, it is possible to obtain desired temperature comfort levels without need for increase in the building energy consumption.
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Díaz-Cuevas, Pilar. « GIS-Based Methodology for Evaluating the Wind-Energy Potential of Territories : A Case Study from Andalusia (Spain) ». Energies 11, no 10 (17 octobre 2018) : 2789. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en11102789.
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In recent years, Spain, in an effort to meet European Union (E.U.) targets, has been developing different strategies to promote the installation of renewable energy plants. In this regard, evaluating territories to assess their potential and thus identify optimum sites for the installation of energy-generating facilities is a crucial task. This paper presents a comprehensive geographic information system (GIS)-based site-selection methodology for wind-power plants in the province of Córdoba, which has hitherto been regarded as unsuitable for this sort of facility owing to the lack of wind resources. Three scenarios have been set out, each of which presents a different set of restrictions. Scenario 2 applies the most stringent restrictions in the specialized literature, and finds no suitable areas for the installation of wind-energy plants. However, Scenario 1, which applies the least stringent restrictions, and Scenario 3, which applies the same restrictions currently in force for other wind turbines already in operation in Andalusia, have led to the identification of several areas that could a priori be considered suitable and now need more detailed analysis. The results illustrate the convenience of undertaking multiscenario analyses.
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Ritter, Meyer, Koch, Haller, Bauknecht et Heinemann. « Effects of a Delayed Expansion of Interconnector Capacities in a High RES-E European Electricity System ». Energies 12, no 16 (12 août 2019) : 3098. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12163098.
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In order to achieve a high renewable share in the electricity system, a significant expansion of cross-border exchange capacities is planned. Historically, the actual expansion of interconnector capacities has significantly lagged behind the planned expansion. This study examines the impact that such continued delays would have when compared to a strong interconnector expansion in an ambitious energy transition scenario. For this purpose, scenarios for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 are examined using the electricity market model PowerFlex EU. The analysis reveals that both CO2 emissions and variable costs of electricity generation increase if interconnector expansion is delayed. This effect is most significant in the scenario year 2050, where lower connectivity leads roughly to a doubling of both CO2 emissions and variable costs of electricity generation. This increase results from a lower level of European electricity trading, a curtailment of electricity from a renewable energy source (RES-E), and a corresponding higher level of conventional electricity generation. Most notably, in Southern and Central Europe, less interconnection leads to higher use of natural gas power plants since less renewable electricity from Northern Europe can be integrated into the European grid.
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Martins, Florinda F., et Hélio Castro. « Raw material depletion and scenario assessment in European Union – A circular economy approach ». Energy Reports 6 (février 2020) : 417–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2019.08.082.
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José, R. S., J. L. Pérez, L. Pérez, R. M. Gonzalez Barras, J. Pecci et M. Palacios. « CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON URBAN LEVEL : CITIZEN HEALTH AND BUILDING ENERGY DEMAND ». ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-3/W2 (15 novembre 2017) : 83–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-3-w2-83-2017.
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The future impacts of climate change on citizen health and building energy demand have been researched considering two possible IPCC global climate scenarios: RCP 4.5 (stabilization emission scenario) and RCP 8.5 (little effort to reduce emissions). The climate scenarios have been dynamically downscaled from 1° to 50 meters of spatial resolution over three European cities: Madrid, Milan and London. Air quality has also been simulated up to streets levels. Climate and air pollution information are used as input to the health impact and building energy demand assessment tools. The impacts are calculated as future (2030, 2050 and 2100) minus present (2011). The short term health impact assessment includes mortality and morbidity related with changes in the temperature and air pollution concentrations. The larger increase of costs of mortality and morbidity was noted in the increasing scenario (RCP8.5) for year 2100, because RCP 8.5 is characterized by temperature increments. Maps of the spatial distribution of the costs of the climate change have showed Building energy demand simulations have been achieved with the EnergyPlus model using specific prototype buildings based on ASHRAE 90.1 Prototype Building Modeling Specifications and urban climate information by each building. .The results show an increase in cooling demand with RCP 8.5 because future will be cooler that the present.
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Shemeikka, Jari, Teemu Vesanen, Ala Hasan et Teemu Mätäsniemi. « Early Stage Energy Refurbishment Assessment Tool for Buildings Using High-End BIM Data : Benefits and Challenges ». Proceedings 65, no 1 (13 janvier 2021) : 28. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/proceedings2020065028.
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It is important to assess the effectiveness of different energy refurbishment scenarios in the early design stages of apartment buildings. This paper demonstrates the main features of a new tool BIMeaser (BIM Early Stage Energy Scenario - a product of the European Union Horizon 2020 project BIM4EEB), which supports the decision-making process in the early stage of design. The tool uses the BIM and linked data from the BIM Management System (BIMMS) for faster initialisation of the actual state, resulting in more accurate building models. The tool finds solutions in accordance with the client’s requirements while also aiming to minimize energy use and maximize the occupant’s indoor climate comfort.
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Crippa, Monica, Greet Janssens-Maenhout, Frank Dentener, Diego Guizzardi, Katerina Sindelarova, Marilena Muntean, Rita Van Dingenen et Claire Granier. « Forty years of improvements in European air quality : regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts ». Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16, no 6 (22 mars 2016) : 3825–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-3825-2016.
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Abstract. The EDGARv4.3.1 (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) global anthropogenic emissions inventory of gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon) air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emissions scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in energy consumption and efficiency, technology progress and end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields at European and global scale. The reference EDGARv4.3.1 emissions include observed and reported changes in activity data, fuel consumption and air pollution abatement technologies over the past 4 decades, combined with Tier 1 and region-specific Tier 2 emission factors. Two further retrospective scenarios assess the interplay of policy and industry. The highest emission STAG_TECH scenario assesses the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe reduction measures in the European Union, by considering historical fuel consumption, along with a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors since 1970, and assuming no further abatement measures and improvement imposed by European emission standards. The lowest emission STAG_ENERGY scenario evaluates the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy consumption since the year 1970, but assuming the technological development, end-of-pipe reductions, fuel mix and energy efficiency of 2010. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject to multi-pollutant European Union Air Quality regulations. Stagnation of technology and air pollution reduction measures at 1970 levels would have led to 129 % (or factor 2.3) higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions in Europe (EU27), demonstrating the large role that technology has played in reducing emissions in 2010. However, stagnation of energy consumption at 1970 levels, but with 2010 fuel mix and energy efficiency, and assuming current (year 2010) technology and emission control standards, would have lowered today's NOx emissions by ca. 38 %, SO2 by 50 % and PM2.5 by 12 % in Europe. A reduced-form chemical transport model is applied to calculate regional and global levels of aerosol and ozone concentrations and to assess the associated impact of air quality improvements on human health and crop yield loss, showing substantial impacts of EU technologies and standards inside as well as outside Europe. We assess that the interplay of policy and technological advance in Europe had substantial benefits in Europe, but also led to an important improvement of particulate matter air quality in other parts of the world.
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PALTSEV, SERGEY, et PANTELIS CAPROS. « COST CONCEPTS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION ». Climate Change Economics 04, supp01 (novembre 2013) : 1340003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007813400034.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Major cost concepts used for evaluation of carbon policy are considered, including change in GDP, change in consumption, change in welfare, energy system cost, and area under marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve. The issues associated with the use of these concepts are discussed. We use the results from the models that participated in the European Energy Modeling Forum (EMF28) study to illustrate the cost concepts. There is substantial variability in the estimates of costs between the models, with some models showing substantial costs and some models reporting benefits from mitigation in some scenarios. Because impacts of a policy are evaluated as changes from a reference scenario, it is important to define a reference scenario. MAC cost measures tend to exclude existing distortions in the economy, while existing energy taxes and subsidies are substantial in many countries. We discuss that carbon prices are inadequate measures of the policy costs. We conclude that changes in macroeconomic consumption or welfare are the most appropriate measures of policy costs.
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Oldenbroek, Vincent, Gilbert Smink, Tijmen Salet et Ad J. M. van Wijk. « Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle as a Power Plant : Techno-Economic Scenario Analysis of a Renewable Integrated Transportation and Energy System for Smart Cities in Two Climates ». Applied Sciences 10, no 1 (23 décembre 2019) : 143. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10010143.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Renewable, reliable, and affordable future power, heat, and transportation systems require efficient and versatile energy storage and distribution systems. If solar and wind electricity are the only renewable energy sources, what role can hydrogen and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have in providing year-round 100% renewable, reliable, and affordable energy for power, heat, and transportation for smart urban areas in European climates? The designed system for smart urban areas uses hydrogen production and FCEVs through vehicle-to-grid (FCEV2G) for balancing electricity demand and supply. A techno-economic analysis was done for two technology development scenarios and two different European climates. Electricity and hydrogen supply is fully renewable and guaranteed at all times. Combining the output of thousands of grid-connected FCEVs results in large overcapacities being able to balance large deficits. Self-driving, connecting, and free-floating car-sharing fleets could facilitate vehicle scheduling. Extreme peaks in balancing never exceed more than 50% of the available FCEV2G capacity. A simple comparison shows that the cost of energy for an average household in the Mid Century scenario is affordable: 520–770 €/year (without taxes and levies), which is 65% less compared to the present fossil situation. The system levelized costs in the Mid Century scenario are 71–104 €/MWh for electricity and 2.6–3.0 €/kg for hydrogen—and we expect that further cost reductions are possible.
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Clemens, Marcel, et Torsten Clemens. « Scenarios to Decarbonize Austria’s Energy Consumption and the Role of Underground Hydrogen Storage ». Energies 15, no 10 (19 mai 2022) : 3742. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15103742.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The European Union is aiming at reaching greenhouse gas (GHG) emission neutrality in 2050. Austria’s current greenhouse gas emissions are 80 million t/year. Renewable Energy (REN) contributes 32% to Austria’s total energy consumption. To decarbonize energy consumption, a substantial increase in energy generation from renewable energy is required. This increase will add to the seasonality of energy supply and amplifies the seasonality in energy demand. In this paper, the seasonality of energy supply and demand in a Net-Zero Scenario are analyzed for Austria and requirements for hydrogen storage derived. We looked into the potential usage of hydrogen in Austria and the economics of hydrogen generation and technology and market developments to assess the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH). Then, we cover the energy consumption in Austria followed by the REN potential. The results show that incremental potential of up to 140 TWh for hydropower, photovoltaic (PV), and wind exists in Austria. Hydropower generation and PV is higher in summer- than in wintertime, while wind energy leads to higher energy generation in wintertime. The largest incremental potential is PV, with agrivoltaic systems significantly increasing the area amenable for PV compared with PV usage only. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCV) use energy more efficiently than Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) cars; however, the use of hydrogen for electricity generation significantly decreases the efficiency due to electricity–hydrogen–electricity conversion. The increase in REN use and the higher demand for energy in Austria in wintertime require seasonal storage of energy. We developed three scenarios, Externally Dependent Scenario (EDS), Balanced Energy Scenario (BES) or Self-Sustained Scenario (SSS), for Austria. The EDS scenario assumes significant REN import to Austria, whereas the SSS scenario relies on REN generation within Austria. The required hydrogen storage would be 10.82 bn m3 for EDS, 13.34 bn m3 for BES, and 18.69 bn m3 for SSS. Gas and oil production in Austria and the presence of aquifers indicates that sufficient storage capacity might be available. Significant technology development is required to be able to implement hydrogen as an energy carrier and to balance seasonal energy demand and supply.
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Bartholdsen, Hans-Karl, Anna Eidens, Konstantin Löffler, Frederik Seehaus, Felix Wejda, Thorsten Burandt, Pao-Yu Oei, Claudia Kemfert et Christian Hirschhausen. « Pathways for Germany’s Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050 ». Energies 12, no 15 (2 août 2019) : 2988. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12152988.
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Like many other countries, Germany has defined goals to reduce its CO2-emissions following the Paris Agreement of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP). The first successes in decarbonizing the electricity sector were already achieved under the German Energiewende. However, further steps in this direction, also concerning the heat and transport sectors, have stalled. This paper describes three possible pathways for the transformation of the German energy system until 2050. The scenarios take into account current climate politics on a global, European, and German level and also include different demand projections, technological trends and resource prices. The model includes the sectors power, heat, and transportation and works on a Federal State level. For the analysis, the linear cost-optimizing Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) is used to calculate the cost-efficient paths and technology mixes. We find that a reduction of CO2 of more than 80% in the less ambitious scenario can be welfare enhancing compared to a scenario without any climate mitigating policies. Even higher decarbonization rates of 95% are feasible and needed to comply with international climate targets, yet related to high effort in transforming the subsector of process heat. The different pathways depicted in this paper render chances and risks of transforming the German energy system under various external influences.
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Marseglia, Guido, Elisa Rivieccio et Carlo Maria Medaglia. « The dynamic role of Italian energy strategies in the worldwide scenario ». Kybernetes 48, no 3 (4 mars 2019) : 636–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/k-04-2018-0199.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to set out ideas regarding a systematic approach that defines the Italian National energy strategies, considering the standards imposed from European Union. Design/methodology/approach A conceptual framework to estimate a model to define the energy policies for different sectors in the Italian case is underlined. The aims of Italian energy strategy in the worldwide scenario are discussed. The authors have considered the relations between the environment and the human impact on the energy conversion process by means of a conceptual method. Findings The actions considered to reach the aims of energy policies objectives are highlighted. This research aims to inform future development in the topic area, considering future perspectives and socio-economical implications for Italy. Originality/value The paper will be of interest to firm managers, ecologists and policymakers with a particular interest in energy policies, considering socio-technical implications. The framework can be applied for facilitating discussions or for scenario planning.
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Fambri, Gabriele, Marco Badami, Dimosthenis Tsagkrasoulis, Vasiliki Katsiki, Georgios Giannakis et Antonis Papanikolaou. « Demand Flexibility Enabled by Virtual Energy Storage to Improve Renewable Energy Penetration ». Energies 13, no 19 (1 octobre 2020) : 5128. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13195128.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The increasing resort to renewable energy distributed generation, which is needed to mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions, leads to challenges concerning the proper operation of electric distribution systems. As a result of the intrinsic nature of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs), this generation shows a high volatility and a low predictability that make the balancing of energy production and consumption difficult. At the same time, the electrification of new energy-intensive sectors (such as heating) is expected. This complex scenario paves the way for new sources of flexibility that will have more and more relevance in the coming years. This paper analyses how the electrification of the heating system, combined with an electric flexibility utilisation module, can be used to mitigate the problems related to the fluctuating production of RES. By using Power-to-Heat (P2H) technologies, buildings are able to store the overproduction of RES in the form of thermal energy for end-use according to the principle of the so-called Virtual Energy Storage (VES). A context-aware demand flexibility extraction based on the VES model and the flexibility upscale and utilisation on district-level through grid simulation and energy flow optimisation is presented in the paper. The involved modules have been developed within the PLANET (PLAnning and operational tools for optimising energy flows and synergies between energy NETworks) H2020 European project and interact under a unified co-simulation framework with the PLANET Decision Support System (DSS) for the analysis of multi-energy scenarios. DSS has been used to simulate a realistic future energy scenario, according to which the imbalance problems triggered by RES overproduction are mitigated with the optimal exploitation of the demand flexibility enabled by VES.
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Dolge, Kristiana, Girts Bohvalovs, Vladimirs Kirsanovs, Andra Blumberga et Dagnija Blumberga. « Bioeconomy in the Shade of Green Deal : The System Dynamic Approach ». Environmental and Climate Technologies 26, no 1 (1 janvier 2022) : 1221–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/rtuect-2022-0092.
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Abstract At the end of 2019, the European Commission launched a new growth strategy called ‘The European Green Deal’ (GD), which aims to ‘transform the European Union (EU) into a fair and prosperous society with a modern, resource-efficient a competitive economy with no net greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 and where economic growth is decoupled from resource use’. This study present developed system dynamic (SD) tool for determining bioeconomy development until 2030 and impact of different GD strategy activities on achieved progress. The bioeconomy index the created and used to measure bioeconomy progress for all scenarios. The optimal scenario was identified between reaching climate goals and adding value to the agricultural, forestry and fisheries resources.
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Ángel Gimeno, José, Eva Llera Sastresa et Sabina Scarpellini. « Determinants and barriers of PV self-consumption in Spain from the perception of the installers for the promotion of distributed energy systems ». ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, no 1 (novembre 2020) : 153–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/efe2020-001007.
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Currently, self-consumption and distributed energy facilities are considered as viable and sustainable solutions in the energy transition scenario within the European Union. In a low carbon society, the exploitation of renewables for self-consumption is closely tied to the energy market at the territorial level, in search of a compromise between competitiveness and the sustainable exploitation of resources. Investments in these facilities are highly sensitive to the existence of favourable conditions at the territorial level, and the energy policies adopted in the European Union have contributed positively to the distributed renewables development and the reduction of their costs in the last decade. However, the number of the installed facilities is uneven in the European Countries and those factors that are more determinant for the investments in self-consumption are still under investigation. In this scenario, this paper presents the main results obtained through the analysis of the determinants in self-consumption investments from a case study in Spain, where the penetration of this type of facilities is being less relevant than in other countries. As a novelty of this study, the main influential drivers and barriers in self-consumption are classified and analysed from the installers' perspective. On the basis of the information obtained from the installers involved in the installation of these facilities, incentives and barriers are analysed within the existing legal framework and the potential specific lines of the promotion for the effective deployment of self-consumption in an energy transition scenario.
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Tarín-Carrasco, Patricia, Ulas Im, Camilla Geels, Laura Palacios-Peña et Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero. « Reducing future air-pollution-related premature mortality over Europe by mitigating emissions from the energy sector : assessing an 80 % renewable energies scenario ». Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 22, no 6 (28 mars 2022) : 3945–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3945-2022.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract. Overall, European air quality has worsened in recent decades as a consequence of increased anthropogenic emissions, in particular from the power generation sector. The evidence of the effects of atmospheric pollution (and particularly fine particulate matter, PM2.5) on human health is now unquestionable; it is mainly associated with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, along with morbidity and even mortality. These effects may even strengthen in the future as a consequence of climate penalties and future changes in the projected population. For all these reasons, the main objective of this contribution is the estimation of the annual excess premature deaths (PD) associated with PM2.5 in the present (1991–2010) and future (2031–2050) European population using non-linear exposure–response functions. The endpoints included are lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), low respiratory infections (LRI), ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) and other non-communicable diseases (other NCD). PM2.5 concentrations come from coupled chemistry–climate regional simulations under present and future (RCP8.5) scenarios. The cases assessed include the estimation of the present incidence of PD (PRE-P2010), the quantification of the role of a changing climate in PD (FUT-P2010) and the importance of changes in the population projected for the year 2050 in the incidence of excess PD (FUT-P2050). Two additional cases (REN80-P2010 and REN80-P2050) evaluate the impact on premature mortality rates of a mitigation scenario in which 80 % of European energy production comes from renewable sources. The results indicate that PM2.5 accounts for nearly 895 000 (95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 725 000–1 056 000) annual excess PD over Europe, with IHD being the largest contributor to premature mortality associated with fine particles in both present and future scenarios. The case that isolates the effects of a climate penalty (FUT-P2010) estimates a variation of +0.2 % in mortality rates over the whole domain. However, under this scenario, the incidence of PD over central Europe will benefit from a decrease in PM2.5 (−2.2 PD/100 000 inhabitants), while in eastern (+1.3 PD/100 000 inhabitants) and western (+0.4 PD/100 000 inhabitants) Europe, PD will increase due to increased PM2.5 levels. The changes in the projected population (FUT-P2050) will lead to a large increase in annual excess PD (1 540 000, 95 % CI 1 247 000–1 818 000; +71.96 % with respect to PRE-P2010 and +71.67 % with respect to FUT-P2010) due to the ageing of the European population. Last, the mitigation scenario (REN80-P2050) demonstrates that the effects of a mitigation policy of increasing the ratio of renewable sources in the energy mix could lead to a decrease of over 60 000 (95 % CI 48 500–70 900) annual PD for the year 2050 (a decrease of −4 % in comparison with the no-mitigation scenario FUT-P2050). In spite of the uncertainties inherent in future estimations, this contribution reveals the need of governments and public entities to take action and choose air pollution mitigation policies.
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De Tommasi, Luciano, Sotiris Papadelis, Ruchi Agrawal et Padraig Lyons. « Analysis of business models for delivering energy efficiency through smart energy services to the European commercial rented sector ». Open Research Europe 2 (28 novembre 2022) : 131. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.15240.1.
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In this paper, we perform a comparative analysis of business models used by Energy Service Companies (ESCOs), suitable for the deployment of energy efficiency measures in the commercial rented sector across Europe. These models can effectively contribute to solving the split-incentive issue that arises in the rented building scenario. Some of them are obtained from their “traditional” counterparts, which do not consider the rented scenario, but just a bipartite agreement between an Energy Service Company and its client. The EU Horizon 2020 project SmartSPIN (Smart energy services to solve the SPlit INcentive problem in the commercial rented sector) targets delivery of enhanced energy services for commercial rented sector. These enhanced energy services (a) combine demand management services and energy efficiency interventions, (b) facilitate the adoption of renewables, (c) optimize the balance between demand and supply, (d) alleviate the split incentive issue. The pilot implementation of project will be performed in a business park in Greece, in an office building in Ireland and in two shopping centers in Spain. Key recommendations toward the implementation of such a smart energy service are provided in this paper. They have been obtained from a detailed analysis of ten interviews of key stakeholders of the energy efficiency section and of the commercial rented sector, along with an analysis of a selection of the most relevant technical literature.
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Kunttu, Janni, Venla Wallius, Martti Kulvik, Pekka Leskinen, Jussi Lintunen, Timokleia Orfanidou et Diana Tuomasjukka. « Exploring 2040 : Global Trends and International Policies Setting Frames for the Finnish Wood-Based Economy ». Sustainability 14, no 16 (12 août 2022) : 9999. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14169999.
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Global trends influence the approaches and mindset for using natural resources and technological capacities. Participatory scenario methods have proven useful in long-term foresight. However, country-level foresight studies often ignore the broader trends affecting international markets and setting frames for economic development. This study envisions which global trends could occur and how the resulting European policies might affect the Finnish forest sector’s development in 2040. We applied a Futures Wheel approach, where stakeholder groups consisting of policy-, economic- and social sustainability-, technology-, and climate sustainability -experts in the field of forestry and interlinking industries created three future scenarios in a workshop: (1) biodiversity and regulated economy, (2) circular economy, and (3) era of social connection. The scenarios assumed growing resource scarcity as a result of climate change, as well as over-consumption and increasing inequality problems globally. Thus, European-level policies focused on the circular economy and resource-use restrictions. Finnish industries should invest in wood-based side stream and waste utilization to increase added value and decrease virgin wood uses to succeed in these scenarios. However, this would require investments in non-wood energy sources to release these secondary wood flows from energy uses.
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Brożyna, Jacek, Grzegorz Mentel, Eva Ivanová et Gennadii Sorokin. « Classification of Renewable Sources of Electricity in the Context of Sustainable Development of the New EU Member States ». Energies 12, no 12 (13 juin 2019) : 2271. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12122271.
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Climate change and awareness of the need to care for the environment have resulted in a global increase in the interest in renewable energy sources. The European Union (EU) is active in this respect and requires Member States to fulfill specific plans in the transformation of their energy systems. We employed hierarchical cluster analysis in an attempt to distinguish those countries among the new EU Member States that increased their electrical capacity from renewable energy sources to the greatest extent while paying attention to their energy intensity. The analyses were conducted in two scenarios for both 2004 and 2016. The first scenario assumed an analysis of all known renewable energy sources, whereas in the second scenario, only renewable energy sources from wind and solar power plants were included. The division of analyses into these two variants showed the importance of the differences in the energy assessment of individual countries, depending on classification of renewable energy sources. We identified groups of countries where electrical capacity from renewable energy sources increased the most. Conducting analyses using two variants allowed distinguishing countries that based most of their renewable energy on modern renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power plants. The inclusion of gross domestic product in the analyses allowed us to identify countries with the worst energy efficiency value.
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Jareño Escudero, Cristina Isabel, Miriam Navarro Escudero, César Damián Mifsut García, María Flores Fillol et José Manuel Salmerón Lissen. « Potential of Energy Savings in the Public Housing Stock of Comunitat Valenciana Region by Applying the MedZEB Cost-Optimal Methodology ». Applied Sciences 12, no 1 (23 décembre 2021) : 138. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12010138.
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Improving energy efficiency in buildings has a key role to play in achieving the ambitious goal of EU-wide climate neutrality by 2050, set out in the European Green Deal. This paper describes a cost-optimal analysis of residential buildings of Valencian Community, Spain. Thus, an assessment of the contribution of total primary energy savings per year (MW/h) of the social dwellings managed by EVha, Entitat Valenciana d’Habitatge i Sòl (eng. Valencian entity for dwelling and ground) towards the national contribution is presented in this paper. To assess it, the MedZEB cost-optimal methodology has been applied to optimise the performance of the building’s envelope. This means that Optimal Renovation Strategies through Life-Cycle Analysis have been applied to obtain the Packages of Optimal Solutions of the different reference buildings in a reference climate. First, the renovation scenario with 100% of the building stock being renovated has been calculated. Then, the renovation scenario of 1%, being the current European rate of renovation and, finally the renovation scenario of 2%, given that the objective of the Renovation Wave is to at least double the annual energy renovation rate of residential and non-residential buildings by 2030 and to foster deep energy renovations.
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Santos, Hugo R. R., et Vítor M. S. Leal. « Energy vs. ventilation rate in buildings : A comprehensive scenario-based assessment in the European context ». Energy and Buildings 54 (novembre 2012) : 111–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2012.07.040.
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Costa, Henrique Silva Pacini. « Solar Power in the European Context : Conversion Efficiency and the Issue of Carbon ». Journal of Contemporary European Research 5, no 1 (24 avril 2009) : 114–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.30950/jcer.v5i1.84.
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The European Union is committed to increasing the use of renewable energies across Europe. One of the ways this is to be done is through the promotion of solar photovoltaics (PV), a method with significant environmental benefits. However, the high costs of electricity generated through PV have constrained the market reach of this option. This paper takes the form of a policy discussion, analyzing the fundamental issues concerning this type of energy, and its place in the European alternative energy market. Furthermore, a scenario is drafted to estimate how efficient solar panels should ideally be to make electricity produced by them cost-competitive with conventional, grid-tied energy sources. The study considers both a conventional scenario and another, with carbon capture costs incorporated into the final electricity prices. It is observed that in order to be competitive with conventional fossil-based electricity, photovoltaic conversion efficiencies should be around 34%. Incorporating carbon costs would further help promote solar PV, making it more price-attractive compared to emission-intensive electricity generation based on fossil fuels. The final part of the paper sheds light on the new developments on European PV, mainly in regards to the 2008 European Commission Climate Change Package, its implications and reactions from the industry.
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JEWELL, JESSICA, ALEH CHERP, VADIM VINICHENKO, NICO BAUER, TOM KOBER, DAVID McCOLLUM, DETLEF P. VAN VUUREN et BOB VAN DER ZWAAN. « ENERGY SECURITY OF CHINA, INDIA, THE E.U. AND THE U.S. UNDER LONG-TERM SCENARIOS : RESULTS FROM SIX IAMs ». Climate Change Economics 04, no 04 (novembre 2013) : 1340011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007813400113.
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This paper assesses energy security in three long-term energy scenarios (business as usual development, a projection of Copenhagen commitments, and a 450 ppm stabilization scenario) as modeled in six integrated assessment models: GCAM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, ReMIND, TIAM-ECN and WITCH. We systematically evaluate long-term vulnerabilities of vital energy systems of four major economies: China, the European Union (E.U.), India and the U.S., as expressed by several characteristics of energy trade, resource extraction, and diversity of energy options. Our results show that climate policies are likely to lead to significantly lower global energy trade and reduce energy imports of major economies, decrease the rate of resource depletion, and increase the diversity of energy options. China, India and the E.U. would derive particularly strong benefits from climate policies, whereas the U.S. may forego some opportunities to export fossil fuels in the second half of the century.
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Colette, A., B. Bessagnet, R. Vautard, S. Szopa, S. Rao, S. Schucht, Z. Klimont et al. « European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios ». Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 13, no 3 (11 mars 2013) : 6455–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-6455-2013.
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Abstract. To quantify changes in air pollution in Europe at the 2050 horizon, we designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors considered to be most relevant and relies on up-to-date and consistent sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this century. This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional scale based on CMIP5 (5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project) climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant emissions, rather than climate change or long range transport. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" bearing upon ozone over Europe is confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature: such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling of each contributing factor shows that the magnitude of the ozone climate penalty has been overstated in the past while on the contrary the contribution of the global ozone burden is overlooked in the literature.
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Colette, A., B. Bessagnet, R. Vautard, S. Szopa, S. Rao, S. Schucht, Z. Klimont et al. « European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios ». Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13, no 15 (2 août 2013) : 7451–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-7451-2013.
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Abstract. To quantify changes in air pollution over Europe at the 2050 horizon, we designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors considered to be most relevant, and that relies on up-to-date and consistent sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent representative concentration pathways (RCP) produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this century. This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional scale based on CMIP5 (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant emissions, rather than climate change or intercontinental transport of pollution. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" that weights upon ozone (increase of ozone pollution with global warming) over Europe is confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature, such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling of external factors shows that, while several published studies focused on the climate penalty bearing upon ozone, the contribution of the global ozone burden is somewhat overlooked in the literature.
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Philippidis, George, Heleen Bartelings, John Helming, Robert M’barek, Edward Smeets et Hans van Meijl. « The Good, the Bad and the Uncertain : Bioenergy Use in the European Union ». Energies 11, no 10 (11 octobre 2018) : 2703. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en11102703.
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As the EU is moving towards a low carbon economy and seeks to further develop its renewable energy policy, this paper quantitatively investigates the impact of plausible energy market reforms from the perspective of bio-renewables. Employing a state-of-the-art biobased variant of a computable general equilibrium model, this study assesses the perceived medium-term benefits, risks and trade-offs which arise from an advanced biofuels plan, two exploratory scenarios of a more ‘sustainable’ conventional biofuels plan and a ‘no-mandate’ scenario. Consistent with more recent studies, none of the scenarios considered present significant challenges to EU food-security or agricultural land usage. An illustrative advanced biofuels plan simulation requires non-trivial public support to implement whilst a degree of competition for biomass with (high-value) advanced biomass material industries is observed. On the other hand, it significantly alleviates land use pressures, whilst lignocellulose biomass prices are not expected to increase to unsustainable levels. Clearly, these observations are subject to assumptions on technological change, sustainable biomass limits, expected trends in fossil fuel prices and EU access to third-country trade. With these same caveats in mind, the switch to increased bioethanol production does not result in significant market tensions in biomass markets.
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Connolly, D., H. Lund et B. V. Mathiesen. « Smart Energy Europe : The technical and economic impact of one potential 100% renewable energy scenario for the European Union ». Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 60 (juillet 2016) : 1634–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.02.025.
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Pepe, Luigi Maria, et Aldo Arcangioli. « The Scenario of Renewable Energy Sources in Italy and the Effects of COVID-19 ». Global Energy Law and Sustainability 1, no 2 (août 2020) : 200–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/gels.2020.0028.
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The crisis caused by COVID 19 has raised many doubts and questions about the present and the future. The Italian renewable energy target of 2030 has suffered one of the most significant impacts. The global pandemic, however, has also presented opportunities for Italian government to reframe the renewable institutional framework with a sharper focus on the European obligations and the general trend of decarbonisation and energy transition. Now, with the effects of the global pandemic fading away and the ease of trade restrictions, the RES sector requires immediate re-examination, attention and focus on preventing Italy from failing to achieve the Renewable Energy target of 2030.
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Rečka, Lukáš, Vojtěch Máca et Milan Ščasný. « Green Deal and Carbon Neutrality Assessment of Czechia ». Energies 16, no 5 (23 février 2023) : 2152. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en16052152.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The European Green Deal declares climate neutrality as a goal for the year 2050. It establishes an EU binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990. The market, through the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, will determine how EU member states contribute to this target. The Effort Sharing Regulation defines binding national targets to reduce the remaining GHG emissions not covered by the EU ETS. In this paper, an energy optimization model is applied to analyze the capability of Czechia to meet the climate change targets by 2030 and 2050. We define a baseline scenario derived from the National Energy and Climate Plan and three policy scenarios to assess impacts of the extension of the EU ETS to buildings and transport (EU ETS 2) and the coal phase-out on the Czech energy system. One of the policy scenarios aims at approaching climate neutrality in 2050. In addition, another scenario does not assess the impacts of the EU ETS 2 and coal phase-out but searches for the optimal path to achieve climate neutrality in 2050. Given the high level of GHG emissions in 1990 and the significant reduction in GHG emissions in the 1990s, Czechia could achieve a 55% reduction by 2030. However, further decarbonization will be quite challenging.
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Syranidou, Chloi, Jochen Linssen, Detlef Stolten et Martin Robinius. « Integration of Large-Scale Variable Renewable Energy Sources into the Future European Power System : On the Curtailment Challenge ». Energies 13, no 20 (20 octobre 2020) : 5490. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13205490.
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The future European power system is projected to rely heavily on variable renewable energy sources (VRES), primarily wind and solar generation. However, the difficulties inherent to storing the primary energy of these sources is expected to pose significant challenges in terms of their integration into the system. To account for the high variability of renewable energy sources VRES, a novel pan-European dispatch model with high spatio-temporal resolution including load shifting is introduced here, providing highly detailed information regarding renewable energy curtailments for all Europe, typically underestimated in studies of future systems. which also includes modeling of load shifting. The model consists of four separate levels with different approaches for modeling thermal generation flexibility, storage units and demand as well as with spatial resolutions and generation dispatch formulations. Applying the developed model for the future European power system follows the results of corresponding transmission expansion planning studies, which are translated into the desired high spatial resolution. The analysis of the “large scale-RES” scenario for 2050 shows considerable congestion between northern and central Europe, which constitutes the primary cause of VRES curtailments of renewables. In addition, load shifting is shown to mostly improve the integration of solar energy into the system and not wind, which constitutes the dominant energy source for this scenario. Finally, the analysis of the curtailments time series using ideal converters shows that the best locations for their exploitation can be found in western Ireland and western Denmark.
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Zvěřinová, Iva, Vojtěch Máca, Milan Ščasný, Rosa Strube, Sibila Marques, Diana Dubová, Martin Kryl et al. « How to Achieve a Healthier and More Sustainable Europe by 2040 According to the Public ? Results of a Five-Country Questionnaire Survey ». International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no 17 (20 août 2020) : 6071. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176071.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The aim of this paper is to understand public preferences for several future scenarios of achieving a healthier, more equitable and sustainable Europe, which differ in the way the society is organized (individualistically vs. collectively) and in the driving sector (public vs. private). To achieve this aim, we conducted a questionnaire survey using representative samples for five European countries in 2018. About three thousand respondents chose among the four scenarios presented within four different contexts (green spaces, active mobility, energy-efficient housing, food consumption) or none of them. A majority of people in the five European countries were ready to accept one of the scenarios. We found significant differences in preferences according to socioeconomic backgrounds and values of respondents. People above 35 years old, those who were less educated, and those in the lowest household income tertile were less supportive of all scenarios. The heterogeneity in preferences associated with differences in socioeconomic backgrounds was larger for the scenario in which society is organized individualistically and driven by the private sector. Smaller distinctions were found in case of the scenario in which society is organized collectively and is driven by the public sector. Departing from social psychological theories, we examine the role of altruistic, biospheric, egoistic, hedonic, and security values. People with stronger biospheric values were more likely to accept scenarios, particularly those which are driven by the public sector and where there is more collective organisation. Those with a more egoistic value orientation were more likely to have higher preferences for scenarios where the private sector had a dominant role. The policy implications, in terms of the selection and framing of policy measures to enhance public support, are discussed.
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Mette, Tobias, Susanne Brandl et Christian Kölling. « Climate Analogues for Temperate European Forests to Raise Silvicultural Evidence Using Twin Regions ». Sustainability 13, no 12 (8 juin 2021) : 6522. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13126522.
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Climate analogues provide forestry practice with empirical evidence of how forests are managed in “twin” regions, i.e., regions where the current climate is comparable to the expected future climate at a site of interest. As the twin regions and their silvicultural evidence change with each climate scenario and model, we focus our investigation on how the uncertainty in future climate affects tree species prevalence. We calculate the future climate from 2000 to 2100 for three ensemble variants of the mild (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5) and hard (RCP 8.5) climate scenarios. We determine climatic distances between the future climate of our site of interest ‘Roth’ and the current climate in Europe, generating maps with twin regions from 2000 to 2100. From forest inventories in these twin regions we trace how the prevalence of 23 major tree species changes. We realize that it is not the ‘how’ but the ‘how fast’ species’ prevalence changes that differs between the scenario variants. We use this finding to develop a categorization of species groups that integrates the uncertainty in future climate. Twin regions provide further information on silvicultural practices, pest management, product chains etc.