Bibliographies thématiques / European energy scenario

Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « European energy scenario »

Auteur : Grafiati
Publié le 10 mars 2023

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "European energy scenario"

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de Sa, Paul. « European energy to 2020 : A scenario approach ». Energy Policy 25, no 12 (octobre 1997) : 1039–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0301-4215(97)00087-6.

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Nagy, Orsolya. « Renewable energy resources in the EU (Policy scenario) ». Acta Agraria Debreceniensis, no 51 (10 février 2013) : 143–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.34101/actaagrar/51/2079.

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The use of renewable energies has a long past, even though its share of the total energy use is rather low in European terms. However, the tendencies are definitely favourable which is further strengthened by the dedication of the European Union to sustainable development and combat against climate change. The European Union is on the right track in achieving its goal which is to be able to cover 20% its energy need from renewable energy resources by 2020. The increased use of wind, solar, water, tidal, geothermal and biomass energy will reduce the energy import dependence of the European Union and it will stimulate innovation.
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Criqui, Patrick, et Silvana Mima. « European climate—energy security nexus : A model based scenario analysis ». Energy Policy 41 (février 2012) : 827–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.11.061.

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Bórawski, Piotr, Lisa Holden, Marek Bartłomiej Bórawski et Bartosz Mickiewicz. « Perspectives of Biodiesel Development in Poland against the Background of the European Union ». Energies 15, no 12 (13 juin 2022) : 4332. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15124332.

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Biofuels are becoming more important in the renewable energy sources mix. Liquid biofuels are products of agriculture. Bioethanol can be prepared from corn, beetroot and other plants. Biodiesel is mainly made from rapeseed. This paper presents information about biodiesel development in Poland, as well as some background information about its development in the European Union (EU). We analyzed the data about biofuels in the literature, and provide statistical data about liquid biofuel in Poland and other countries of the EU. The aim of the study is to assess the viability of liquid biofuel development in Poland. The base for biodiesel production in Poland and the EU is rapeseed. The production yields and sown area of rapeseed increased in Poland from 2005–2020. This was due to integration and European Union policies which aim to supply clean energy. The energy mix in Poland differs from that of the EU. Solid biofuels have made up the biggest share of renewable energy sources in Poland (73.4%) and the EU (40.1%). Poland has smaller share of wind energy, biogas, heat pump, water energy, solar anergy, municipal waste and geothermal energy in its renewable energy sources compared to the rest of the EU. Only with solid and liquid biofuels is the share of renewable energy sources larger in Poland compared to the EU averages. Poland has decreased its share of solid biofuels and water energy among its renewable energy sources, while other sources have increased. Poland is investing to increase its renewable energy sources. To analyze the opportunities for biodiesel production in Poland, we used the scenario method of analysis. We outlined three scenarios. The first is increasing the production of biodiesel by 3% each year for the next three years. The second is production remains unchanged, i.e., at the 2020 level. The last scenario is decreasing production by 3% each year. According to the first scenario, the total demand for rapeseed for energy and food purposes will be 375 thousand tons in 2025. Such a scenario is very likely to occur because of the growing demand for biodiesel and edible oil. The current situation with Ukraine and the Russian Federation will create an increase in demand for rapeseed, leading to higher prices.
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Kigle, Stephan, Michael Ebner et Andrej Guminski. « Greenhouse Gas Abatement in EUROPE—A Scenario-Based, Bottom-Up Analysis Showing the Effect of Deep Emission Mitigation on the European Energy System ». Energies 15, no 4 (12 février 2022) : 1334. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15041334.

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Greenhouse gas emissions need to be drastically reduced to mitigate the environmental impacts caused by climate change, and to lead to a transformation of the European energy system. A model landscape consisting of four final energy consumption sector models with high spatial (NUTS-3) and temporal (hourly) resolution and the multi-energy system model ISAaR is extended and applied to investigate the transformation pathway of the European energy sector in the deep emission mitigation scenario solidEU. The solidEU scenario describes not only the techno-economic but also the socio-political contexts, and it includes the EU27 + UK, Norway, and Switzerland. The scenario analysis shows that volatile renewable energy sources (vRES) dominate the energy system in 2050. In addition, the share of flexible sector coupling technologies increases to balance electricity generation from vRES. Seasonal differences are balanced by hydrogen storage with a seasonal storage profile. The deployment rates of vRES in solidEU show that a fast, profound energy transition is necessary to achieve European climate protection goals.
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Bairrão, Diego, João Soares, José Almeida, John F. Franco et Zita Vale. « Green Hydrogen and Energy Transition : Current State and Prospects in Portugal ». Energies 16, no 1 (3 janvier 2023) : 551. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en16010551.

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Hydrogen is a promising commodity, a renewable secondary energy source, and feedstock alike, to meet greenhouse gas emissions targets and promote economic decarbonization. A common goal pursued by many countries, the hydrogen economy receives a blending of public and private capital. After European Green Deal, state members created national policies focused on green hydrogen. This paper presents a study of energy transition considering green hydrogen production to identify Portugal’s current state and prospects. The analysis uses energy generation data, hydrogen production aspects, CO2 emissions indicators and based costs. A comprehensive simulation estimates the total production of green hydrogen related to the ratio of renewable generation in two different scenarios. Then a comparison between EGP goals and Portugal’s transport and energy generation prospects is made. Portugal has an essential renewable energy matrix that supports green hydrogen production and allows for meeting European green hydrogen 2030–2050 goals. Results suggest that promoting the conversion of buses and trucks into H2-based fuel is better for CO2 reduction. On the other hand, given energy security, thermoelectric plants fueled by H2 are the best option. The aggressive scenario implies at least 5% more costs than the moderate scenario, considering economic aspects.
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Oghenekaro, Ruseh Elohor, et Shashi Kant. « Interactions between proposed energy-mix scenarios and non-energy Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) : a Sub-Sahara African perspective ». Environmental Research Communications 4, no 3 (1 mars 2022) : 035002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ac5764.

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Abstract Sub- Sahara Africa (SSA) has the lowest access to energy globally which is partly responsible for its dismal socio-economic indices. The continent, however, has the unique opportunity to fuel its sustainable development using clean and sustainable energy. Given the continent’s aspirations, as well as its position and peculiarities within the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as its hosting up to 90% of the world’s poorest countries, and generally lagging behind in development as most countries in Africa are not on track to meet the SDGs with the exception of the SDG on climate action, an assessment of the interactions and implications between the goal to provide access to clean, reliable, affordable, sustainable, and modern energy (SDG 7) and the other non-energy related SDGs is important for coherent cross-sectoral sustainable development planning and decision-making. This paper analyzes the interactions between SDG 7 and selected non-energy SDGs for three energy-mix scenarios—the current (2018), 2040 energy mix scenario proposed by International Energy Agency (IEA), and 2065 energy mix scenario proposed by Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. The analyses are done for two countries - Nigeria and Ethiopia—that capture the wide variation in economic growth and energy sources across SSA. The analyses were carried out by adapting a seven-point scoring typology proposed by Nilsson et al (2016). The results indicate that in the case of Nigeria, the interactions between SDG 7 and many non-energy SDGs, such as SDGs 2, 6, and 13, become negative for the IEA 2040 scenario while they were positive for 2018 scenario. For the same two scenarios (IEA 2040 and the current), for Ethiopia, there are some negative influences on selected non-energy SDGs, but the direction of overall interactions does not change from positive to negative. In the case of JRC 2065 scenario, there are marginal negative influences on some non-energy SDGs, but neither in Nigeria nor in Ethiopia, there is no complete reverse change from positive to negative for any non-energy SDGs. Hence, JRC 2065 scenario is preferred. The study concludes with recommendations for policy interventions that would prevent the change of the interactions that move from positive in the 2018 scenario towards negative in the 2065 scenario (such as those that protect the rights of local communities to natural resources), as well as policies that may reduce the influence of negative interactions seen in both scenarios (such as reduction of air pollution).
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KNOPF, BRIGITTE, YEN-HENG HENRY CHEN, ENRICA DE CIAN, HANNAH FÖRSTER, AMIT KANUDIA, IOANNA KARKATSOULI, ILKKA KEPPO, TIINA KOLJONEN, KATJA SCHUMACHER et DETLEF P. VAN VUUREN. « BEYOND 2020 — STRATEGIES AND COSTS FOR TRANSFORMING THE EUROPEAN ENERGY SYSTEM ». Climate Change Economics 04, supp01 (novembre 2013) : 1340001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2010007813400010.

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The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) study systematically explores the energy system transition required to meet the European goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% by 2050. The 80% scenario is compared to a reference case that aims to achieve a 40% GHG reduction target. The paper investigates mitigation strategies beyond 2020 and the interplay between different decarbonization options. The models present different technology pathways for the decarbonization of Europe, but a common finding across the scenarios and models is the prominent role of energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. In particular, wind power and bioenergy increase considerably beyond current deployment levels. Up to 2030, the transformation strategies are similar across all models and for both levels of emission reduction. However, mitigation becomes more challenging after 2040. With some exceptions, our analysis agrees with the main findings of the "Energy Roadmap 2050" presented by the European Commission.
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Hundertmark, Stephan, et Daniel Lancelle. « A Scenario for a Future European Shipboard Railgun ». IEEE Transactions on Plasma Science 43, no 5 (mai 2015) : 1194–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tps.2015.2403863.

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Kravchenko, Y. B. « European energy transition : what are the perspectives ? » Mezhdunarodnaja jekonomika (The World Economics), no 9 (30 août 2022) : 655–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.33920/vne-04-2209-04.

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The article analyzes the prerequisites and prospects of the energy transition in the EU. The author identifi es two key factors that dictate the need to transform the European energy system –requirement to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels and desire to tackle the climate crisis. Special attention is paid to the REPowerEU plan, which is a comprehensive response to the hardships and global energy market disruption caused by Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. The main idea of the plan is that Europe potentially gets more opportunities to abandon Russian fuel faster by acting as a Union. It is found that the measures in the Plan can help to respond to this ambition, through energy savings, diversifi cation of energy supplies, and accelerated rollout of renewable energy to replace fossil fuels in homes, industry and power generation. The green transformation may not only strengthen economic growth and security in Europe and its partner countries, but also make a significant contribution to the fi ght against climate change. The ways of implementing the energy transition and scenarios for the development of European energy are considered in detail. It is concluded that regardless of the development scenario, the main need of the EU will be covered by renewable energy sources in a long-term perspective. Because they include biomass, biomethane, biofuels, wind, solar and geothermal energy, the demand will de facto be covered by diff erent sources. In practice, this means redefi ning the structure of the European energy market towards diversifi cation. Since there used to be a dominant energy carrier, it is a unique phenomenon in the history of the European energy industry.
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Thèses sur le sujet "European energy scenario"

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Ridderstrand, Jacob, et Markus Tenfält. « A Powerful Future : Modelling European power demand until 2050 ». Thesis, KTH, Skolan för industriell teknik och management (ITM), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-300078.

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A Powerful Future explores the future electricity demand in Europe until 2050 for the industry, transport, and residential sector. This is done through a bottom-up model capturing the essential parameters for each sector combined with statistics on electricity and energy demand giving two scenarios on future power demand in Europe – High Electrification and Baseline. The electricity demand is built in Excel’s data modelling tool, at the request of Sweco. One aspect of this project also involves challenges when constructing this tool. The resolution will be yearly and economic aspects and feasibility of the electrification have not been investigated in this project. The focus of the project is to capture the most essential activities and technologies affecting the power demand in Europe to be included in the model, and less focus on analyzing each country. The annual results until 2050 for both scenarios show a significant increase in power demand in Europe due to the electrification of the industry and transport sector. The transport sector will reach approximately 550 TWh in Baseline and 600 TWh in High Electrification, while the industrial power demand will reach ~2 000/~2 700 TWh in the Baseline -/High Electrification scenario. These two sectors will account for the biggest increase in power demand while households will have a small increase in power demand. The total modeled annual electricity demand 2050 will be ~5 000/~5 900 TWh in the Baseline -/High Electrification scenario and will be approximately a doubling of the electricity demand 2021.
A Powerful Future utforskar den framtida efterfrågan av el i Europa fram till 2050 för industri, transport och hushållssektorn. Detta görs genom en bottom-up modell som infångar viktiga parametrar för varje sektor kombinerat med historiska data av energi- och elbehov för två olika scenarier för Europa –Baseline och Högelektrifiering. Elbehovet modelleras genom Excels datamodellerings-verktyg, som byggts på Swecos förfrågan. En aspekt i detta projekt involerar utmaningar när ett eget verktyg för detta ska konstrueras. Upplösningen är årlig och ekonomiska aspekter såväl som genomförbarhet har inte undersökts närmare i projektet. Resultat från projektet visar på en signifikant ökning i elbehov i Europa på grund av elektrifiering i industri- och transportsektorn. Transportsektorn kommer kräva circa 600 TWh el i Högelektrifieringsscenariet och 550 TWh i Baselinescenariet, emedan industrisektorns elbehov kommer att nå 2 000/2 700 TWh i Baseline-/Högelektrifieringsscenariet. Dessa två sektorer komma stå för den största ökningen i elbehov emedan hushållssektorn kommer stå för en liten ökning. Det totala elbehovet 2050 har modellerats till 5 000/5 900 TWh i Baseline-/Högelektrifieringsscenariet och är ungefär en fördubbling av elbehovet 2021.
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van, Slyke Torry. « Fields of Dreams : Scenarios to Produce Selected Biomass and Renewable Jet Fuels that Fulfill European Union Sustainability Criteria ». Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-385902.

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Aviation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have risen faster than any other transport sector to double between 1990 and 2005. Such emissions from aviation could increase another 700 percent globally, and at least 150 percent in the European Union (EU), by 2050 due to continuously increasing consumer demand. To reverse the trend of rising emissions writ large, the EU has set 2030 climate goals of reducing its GHG emissions by 40 percent (relative to 2005) and having 32 percent of gross final energy consumption from renewables. The EU’s recast Renewable Energy Directive (RED-II) calls for 14 percent of transport energy from renewables, gives multipliers to advanced biofuels, and restricts biomass that is from ecologically valuable lands or that causes land use change. Energy security and energy independence are also long-term EU goals. Many of these goals and targets have also been adopted by the European Free Trade Area (EFTA). Despite these efforts, options are limited to reduce aviation emissions compared to other transport sectors, leaving aviation biofuels, also known as renewable jet fuels (RJFs), as currently the only commercialized option. Against this backdrop, in this thesis scenario analyses were conducted to produce biomass from EU+EFTA lands, project RJF yields from this biomass, and estimate emissions savings of these RJFs compared to petroleum jet fuel. Particular effort was devoted to identifying biomass, biofuels, and EU+EFTA lands that comply with RED-II criteria. The two RJF pathways selected were hydroprocessed esters and fatty acid (HEFA) conversion of Camelina sativa vegetable oil and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthesis of forestry residue lignocellulosic biomass. Over 117 million hectares in the EU+EFTA was identified as available for Camelina sativa cultivation, which could yield over 64 Mt of RJF each year, or 113 percent of the total jet fuel consumed in the EU+EFTA in 2017. Conversely, if 50 percent of the forestry residues generated as by-products from EU+EFTA roundwood harvesting operations in 2017 were extracted from harvest sites, 40 Mt of forestry residues would be available as biomass, which would yield almost 7.6 Mt of RJF annually (13% of 2017 jet fuel consumption). If all 144 million hectares of EU+EFTA forest lands deemed available for wood supply were logged, 1,772 Mt of forestry residues would be produced in total (at 50 percent extraction), which could result in almost 337 Mt of RJF, or 590% of the jet fuel consumed in the region in 2017. Hence, RJF can be feasibly produced from biomass from EU+EFTA lands, in amounts that meet or exceed the annual jet fuel consumption of the EU+EFTA, and in ways that meet or exceed RED-II sustainability criteria. However, the proportion of these RJF yields to total annual EU+EFTA jet fuel consumption will decrease over time as the number of flights and their resulting emissions increase. The two RJFs also emit 67 percent and 91 percent fewer GHG emissions, respectively, than petroleum-based jet fuel, showing them to be important tools for the EU to meet its 2030 renewables and emissions reductions targets. Producing the biomass feedstocks and RJFs in these quantities will require the EU to make serious decisions on land use trade-offs, such as whether livestock production is more important than biofuel production.
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Ludig, Sylvie [Verfasser], Ottmar [Akademischer Betreuer] Edenhofer et Thomas [Akademischer Betreuer] Bruckner. « Renewable energy and CCS in German and European power sector decarbonization scenarios / Sylvie Ludig. Gutachter : Ottmar Edenhofer ; Thomas Bruckner. Betreuer : Ottmar Edenhofer ». Berlin : Technische Universität Berlin, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1067385444/34.

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Pfluger, Benjamin [Verfasser]. « Assessment of least-cost pathways for decarbonising Europe's power supply : a model-based long-term scenario analysis accounting for the characteristics of renewable energies / Benjamin Pfluger ». Karlsruhe : KIT Scientific Publishing, 2014. http://www.ksp.kit.edu.

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LEONCINI, LORENZO. « Analisi degli scenari energetici europei e sviluppo di un criterio di valutazione exergetica del sistema edificio ». Doctoral thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2158/869321.

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ITALIANO - La valutazione energetica di un edificio ha lo scopo di quantificare le risorse energetiche impegnate dall’edificio per alimentare i fabbisogni delle utenze, in rapporto a criteri di natura energetica/ambientale/economica. I criteri di valutazione attualmente impiegati sono: energia primaria, emissioni di CO2, costi, energia finale. L’uso di energia a livello di edificio è messo in relazione rispettivamente con le risorse energetiche primarie impegnate, con le emissioni di gas a effetto serra e con gli oneri gestionali. In una visione centrata sulla combinazione tra catena energetica dalle sorgenti all’edificio e edificio, l’impiego di questi criteri è funzionale al raggiungimento di obiettivi strategici di vasta scala verso cui il settore degli edifici è chiamato a convergere. In una visione centrata sull’edificio, l’impiego di questi criteri implica tuttavia che il risultato della valutazione sia dipendente da parametri estrinseci: le infrastrutture energetiche e il mercato dell’energia, interpretati come fattori di conversione, fattori di emissione, tariffe, secondo cui sono differenziati vettori e fonti. Una lettura estesa dell’uso di energia a livello di edificio dovrebbe prendere in considerazione sia gli aspetti di primo principio (conservazione dell’energia), che gli aspetti di secondo principio (degradazione dell’energia). Al fine di delineare un criterio di valutazione energetica del sistema edificio che sia in grado di differenziare vettori e fonti secondo il relativo potenziale termodinamico e che risulti indipendente da parametri estrinseci, abbiamo individuato come strumento l’exergia. Il criterio exergetico delineato quantifica l’exergia impiegata dall’edificio per alimentare gli usi delle utenze in base all’exergia dei vettori di rete e delle fonti rinnovabili on-site utilizzate. In una visione centrata sull’edificio l’exergia dei vettori e delle fonti è determinata in corrispondenza del confine del sistema. La prestazione exergetica “Exergy Performance” è valutata come il quantitativo netto di exergia da vettori di rete e da fonti rinnovabili on-site impiegato dall’edificio per alimentare gli usi delle utenze ed è espressa attraverso un indice “ExP” normalizzato rispetto a un anno di attività e a una unità di superficie. Data l’assunzione di una visione centrata sull’edificio, il criterio exergetico è da mettere in relazione con gli usi finali dell’energia, in quanto svincolato dall’assetto delle infrastrutture energetiche. Il criterio exergetico costituisce uno strumento di valutazione energetica del sistema edificio in grado di incidere sull’assetto degli usi finali dell’energia nel settore degli edifici. All’aspetto di stabilità della valutazione si combina l’aspetto di indirizzo delle scelte energetiche e di interazione con le strategie di decarbonizzazione quali il fuel-switching da combustibili fossili a vettore elettrico e l’incentivazione di vettori localmente zero-carbon. Il criterio exergetico risulta in linea con gli scenari descritti in Energy Roadmap 2050 nella misura in cui la sua applicazione porta verso l’efficienza degli usi finali dell’energia, verso l’elettrificazione e verso l’aumento della quota di consumo finale lordo di energia alimentato tramite fonte rinnovabili. ENGLISH - The aim of the building energy assessment is to quantify the energy sources used from a building to satisfy the users needs, through the application of energy or environmental or economic methods. The assessment methods currently applied are: primary energy, CO2 emissions, costs, final energy. The building energy demand is related respectively with the primary energy sources consumption, the greenhouse gases emissions, the running costs. From a point of view centered on the connection between the building and the energy supply chain, these methods are suitable in order to reach overall energy-environmental targets imposed on the building sector. From a building-centered point of view, these methods imply that the assessment results are dependent from parameters external to the system: the primary energy factors, the emissions factors, the economic rate. The energy sources and the energy carriers are diversified according to these parameters. These parameters are representative of the energy supply chain and the energy market. An overall building energy assessment should take in account both the First Principle features (energy conservation) and the Second Principle features (energy degradation). In order to define a building energy assessment method that is able to diversify the energy sources and the energy carriers according to the respective thermodynamic potential, and that is indipendent from parameters external to the system, we have identified the exergy as useful concept. The exergy method developed quantifies the exergy used from a building to satisfy the users needs, both from grid energy carriers and on-site energy sources. Assuming a building-centered point of view, the exergy of energy carriers and energy sources is determined on the system boundary. The "Exergy Performance" is defined as the net sum of exergy, both from grid energy carriers and on-site energy sources, used from a building to satisfy the users needs. It is expressed by an index "ExP" normalized with respect to one year of building running and one square meter of building floor. Assuming a building-centered point of view, the exergy method must be related to the energy end-uses, because it is indipendent from the energy supply chain and the energy market. The exergy method is able to address the choices about the energy end-uses structure in the building sector. Besides enabling a stable building energy assessment, the exergy method is converging towards the decarbonisation strategies as the fuel-switching from fossil fuels to electricity and the facilitation of locally low-carbon energy carriers. The exergy method is in compliance with the energy scenarios described in Energy Roadmap 2050, because its application lead to the energy end-uses efficiency, the electrification and the increase of gross final energy consumption fuelled from renewable energy sources.
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Livres sur le sujet "European energy scenario"

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Commission, European. European energy and transport scenarios on key drivers : September 2004. Luxembourg : Office for Official Publications of trh European Communities, 2004.

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United Nations. Economic Commission for Europe et Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, dir. European forests and timber : Scenarios into the 21st century (consumption, production, trade, recycling and energy). New York : United Nations, 1996.

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Commission, European. European Energy to 2020 - a Scenario Approach (Energy in Europe). European Communities, 1997.

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Saatçioğlu, Beken, et Funda Tekin, dir. Turkey and the European Union. Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5771/9783748900696.

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This volume studies the enduring complexity of EU–Turkey relations in all their thematic dimensions and with a view to offering future scenarios. It accomplishes three important aims. First, following a narratives analysis, the chapters analysing identity, politics, the economy, security, migration and energy identify the key dynamics that impact the relationship in these areas. Second, they evaluate how these drivers influence the three ideal-type future scenarios of convergence, cooperation and conflict, subsequently offering a relationship scenario for each thematic area. Third, the volume synthesises the chapters’ individual findings and argues that conflictual cooperation is the most likely scenario in future EU–Turkey relations. With contributions by İbrahim Semih Akçomak, Senem Aydın-Düzgit, Lorenzo Colantoni, Angeliki Dimitriadi, Atila Eralp, Erkan Erdil, Doruk Ergun, Hanna Lisa Hauge, Ayhan Kaya, Ebru Ece Özbey, Bahar Rumelili, Beken Saatçioğlu, Eduard Soler i Lecha, Melike Sökmen, Funda Tekin, Sinan Ülgen and Wolfgang Wessels.
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European Energy And Transport - Scenarios on Key Drivers. Commission of the European, 2005.

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Tagliapietra, Simone. Energy Scenarios and Policy Volume I -The Future of European Gas Markets. Elgar Publishing Limited, Edward, 2016.

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Rodrigues, Teresa, et Carla Fernandes. Future of Energy : Prospective Scenarios on EU-Russia Relations. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2019.

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Scenarios for a Future Electricity Supply. Institution of Engineering & Technology (IET), 2011.

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George A, Bermann. Part II Investor-State Arbitration in the Energy Sector, 9 ECT and European Union Law. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/law/9780198805786.003.0009.

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This chapter also looks at issues that typically arise in Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) cases. In particular, it explores those cases in which respondent states have made use of EU law in mounting a jurisdictional or substantive defence under the ECT. First, regarding EU law as a jurisdictional defence, the chapter looks both at intra-European BIT cases and intra-European ECT cases. Regarding the latter, the chapter addresses, among other things, the critical question of whether the ECT is applicable to disputes between an EU member state and a national of another EU member state, or whether such application is precluded by an implicit ‘disconnection clause’ under the ECT, as argued by the EU Commission. Second, regarding EU law as a substantive defence, the chapter analyzes scenarios in which EU law arguably requires conduct, on the part of a member state, that the ECT itself forbids, or vice versa.
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Czisch, Gregor. Scenarios for a Future Electricity Supply : Cost-Optimised Variations on Supplying Europe and Its Neighbours with Electricity from Renewable Energies. Institution of Engineering & Technology, 2011.

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Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "European energy scenario"

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Herbst, Andrea, Steffi Schreiber, Witold-Roger Poganietz, Angelo Martino et Dominik Möst. « Scenario Storyline in Context of Decarbonization Pathways for a Future European Energy System ». Dans The Future European Energy System, 9–25. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60914-6_2.

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AbstractThis chapter presents a qualitative description of the scenario storylines for the REFLEX project. The scenario descriptions provide the overall qualitative framework for the modeling activities by setting-up two holistic socio-technical scenarios based on different storylines: the moderate renewable scenario (Mod–RES) as reference scenario and the (de-)centralized high renewable scenarios (High–RES) as ambitious policy scenarios. The chapter highlights the definition of main techno-economic framework parameters, macro-economic and societal drivers as well as of the considered political environment.
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Bigerna, Simona, Carlo Andrea Bollino et Silvia Micheli. « RES Scenario in the European Union ». Dans The Sustainability of Renewable Energy in Europe, 31–61. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12343-1_2.

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Möst, Dominik, Andrea Herbst, Martin Jakob, Witold-Roger Poganietz, Steffi Schreiber et Christoph Zöphel. « Summary, Conclusion and Recommendations ». Dans The Future European Energy System, 293–309. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60914-6_16.

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AbstractThis chapter summarizes insights and measures to decarbonize the European energy system until the year 2050, as analyzed in the previous 15 chapters, and emphasizes the considerable efforts required to coordinate and govern the targeted energy transition. With increasing aspiration regarding the targeted climate policy the more marked are the required efforts. The reference scenario Mod-RES seems to be well achievable from today’s perspective, while much more additional efforts have to be taken to achieve the more ambitious High-RES scenarios. However, even the High-RES scenarios are less aspiring compared to the aims defined in the European Green Deal. Finally, this chapter highlights conclusions and policy recommendations for a cross-sectoral decarbonization as well as for its resulting environmental, social and health impacts.
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Schreiber, Steffi, Christoph Zöphel et Dominik Möst. « Optimal Energy Portfolios in the Electricity Sector : Trade-Offs and Interplay Between Different Flexibility Options ». Dans The Future European Energy System, 177–98. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60914-6_10.

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AbstractThe expansion of renewable energy sources (RES) and the electrification of demand side sectors raise the need for power system flexibility. The following model-based analysis illustrates the complexity of the European energy system transformation with pathways regarding the RES expansion, sector coupling, and different levels of flexibility provision. Differences occur concerning the optimal mix of flexibility options between the moderate and ambitious climate target scenarios. Dispatchable back-up capacities are necessary, also in presence of high RES shares. Here, CO2 prices influence the role of low-carbon technologies. Due to cross-sectoral interactions, energy storages have a limited value. For the ambitious scenarios, the emission reductions come close to the Green Deal targets of the European Commission, while levelized costs of electricity increase moderately compared to the less ambitious scenario.
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Raczyński, Maciej, Artur Wyrwa, Marcin Pluta et Wojciech Suwała. « Optimal Energy Portfolios in the Heating Sector and Flexibility Potentials of Combined-Heat-Power Plants and District Heating Systems ». Dans The Future European Energy System, 219–34. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60914-6_12.

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AbstractThis chapter examines the role of centralized district heating (DH) systems in context of energy system flexibility and decarbonization. The analysis is performed by applying the model TIMES-Heat-EU. Capacity expansion and operation of the district heating generation units is mainly driven by the evolution of the district heating demand, which varies between the REFLEX scenarios. In all scenarios fuel and technology switches toward bioenergy and natural gas leading to CO2 emission reduction. Since the total amount of energy produced (both heat and electricity) is the highest in the High-RES centralized scenario, the corresponding CO2 emissions for district heating are the highest as well. The CO2 emissions can be reduced by ⁓60% in 2050 compared to 2015. Furthermore, the role of thermal energy storage and power-to-heat technologies is examined.
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Nielsen, Stefan K., et Bent Sørensen. « A Fair-Market Scenario for the European Energy System ». Dans Long-Term Integration of Renewable Energy Sources into the European Energy System, 127–91. Heidelberg : Physica-Verlag HD, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-59015-3_4.

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Lehmann, Harry, Torsten Reetz, Brigitte Drees, Helmuth-M. Groscurth, Wolfgang Bräuer et Sigurd Weinreich. « Scenario for a Sustainable Future Energy System ». Dans Long-Term Integration of Renewable Energy Sources into the European Energy System, 37–126. Heidelberg : Physica-Verlag HD, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-59015-3_3.

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Kunze, Robert, et Steffi Schreiber. « Model Coupling Approach for the Analysis of the Future European Energy System ». Dans The Future European Energy System, 27–51. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60914-6_3.

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AbstractIn REFLEX ten different bottom-up simulation tools, fundamental energy system models, and approaches for life cycle assessment are coupled to a comprehensive Energy Models System. This Energy Models System allows an in–depth analysis and simultaneously a holistic evaluation of the development toward a low–carbon European energy system with focus on flexibility options up to the year 2050. Different variables are exchanged among the individual models within the Energy Models System. For a consistent analysis, relevant framework and scenario data need to be harmonized between the models.
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Herbst, Andrea, Anna-Lena Klingler, Stephanie Heitel, Pia Manz, Tobias Fleiter, Matthias Rehfeldt, Francesca Fermi, Davide Fiorello, Angelo Martino et Ulrich Reiter. « Future Energy Demand Developments and Demand Side Flexibility in a Decarbonized Centralized Energy System ». Dans The Future European Energy System, 91–113. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60914-6_6.

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AbstractEuropean final energy consumption mainly stems from five sectors: transport, households, industry, residential, and agriculture using fossil fuels as dominant energy carriers. In order to achieve the climate targets, emissions in the demand sectors must be drastically reduced. Due to different characteristics and challenges each sector needs its own strategy how to achieve such decarbonization until 2050. In the following chapter, the impacts of an ambitious mitigation scenario on future energy demand and CO2 emissions for transport, industry, residential, and tertiary are analyzed discussing sector specific decarbonization strategies and mitigation options. Implications of such strategies for demand-side flexibility and its future need are analyzed.
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Fraunholz, Christoph, Andreas Bublitz, Dogan Keles et Wolf Fichtner. « Impact of Electricity Market Designs on Investments in Flexibility Options ». Dans The Future European Energy System, 199–218. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-60914-6_11.

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AbstractAgainst the background of several European countries implementing capacity remuneration mechanisms (CRM) as an extension to the energy-only market (EOM), this chapter provides a quantitative assessment of the long-term cross-border effects of CRMs in the European electricity system. For this purpose, several scenario analyses are carried out using the electricity market model PowerACE. Three different market design settings are investigated, namely, a European EOM, national CRM policies, and a coordinated CRM. The introduction of CRMs proves to be an effective measure substantially shifting investment incentives toward the countries implementing the mechanisms. However, CRMs increase generation adequacy also in the respective neighboring countries, indicating that free riding occurs. A coordinated approach therefore seems preferable in terms of both lower wholesale electricity prices and generation adequacy.
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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "European energy scenario"

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Grassi, Andrea, Michele Benini et Alessandro Zani. « A scenario analysis for an optimal pan-European cross-border network development ». Dans 2011 European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2011.5953120.

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Lanati, Fabio, et Alberto Gelmini. « Scenario analysis for RES-E integration in Italy up to 2050 ». Dans 2011 European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2011.5953044.

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Santos, Maria Joao, Paula Ferreira et Madalena Araujo. « Multicriteria scenario analysis on electricity production ». Dans 2015 12th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2015.7216697.

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Blomgren, Henrik, Peder Jonsson et Fredrik Lagergren. « Getting back to scenario planning : Strategic action in the future of energy Europe ». Dans 2011 European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2011.5953118.

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Dijkstra, Sytze, Enrique Gaxiola, Frans Nieuwenhout, George Orfanos, Ozge Ozdemir et Adriaan van der Welle. « European scenario synthesis to be used for electricity transmission network planning ». Dans 2012 9th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM 2012). IEEE, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2012.6254756.

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Zani, Alessandro, Gianluigi Migliavacca et Andrea Grassi. « A scenario analysis for an optimal RES integration into the European transmission grid up to 2050 ». Dans 2011 European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2011.5953045.

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Shen, Xun, Jiangyan Zhang et Tielong Shen. « Real-time scenario-based stochastic optimal energy management strategy for HEVs ». Dans 2016 European Control Conference (ECC). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ecc.2016.7810359.

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Zani, A., R. Calisti, F. Careri et Maria Vittoria Cazzol. « A scenario analysis for EU balancing market integration ». Dans 2016 13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2016.7521268.

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Tranberg, Bo, Mirko Schafer, Tom Brown, Jonas Horsch et Martin Greiner. « Flow-Based Analysis of Storage Usage in a Low-Carbon European Electricity Scenario ». Dans 2018 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM). IEEE, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/eem.2018.8469951.

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Allen, Roland, Dylan Blend, Reagan Thornberry, Alejandro Arroyo, Gabriel Frohaug et Caden LaFontaine. « A multicomponent dark matter scenario and the experimental evidence supporting it ». Dans European Physical Society Conference on High Energy Physics. Trieste, Italy : Sissa Medialab, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.22323/1.364.0099.

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Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "European energy scenario"

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Monetary Policy Report - July 2022. Banco de la República, octobre 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3-2022.

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In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias
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