Thèses sur le sujet « Elicitation of expert belief »
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Briggs, Rachael (Rachael Amy). « Partial belief and expert testimony ». Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/47829.
Texte intégralIncludes bibliographical references (p. [83]-86).
My dissertation investigates two questions from within a partial belief framework: First, when and how should deference to experts or other information sources be qualified? Second, how closely is epistemology related to other philosophical fields, such as metaphysics, ethics, and decision theory? Chapter 1 discusses David Lewis's "Big Bad Bug", an argument for the conclusion that the Principal Principle-the thesis that one's credence in a proposition A should equal one's expectation of A's chance, provided one has no inadmissible information-is incompatible with Humean Supervenience-the thesis that that laws of nature, dispositions, and objective chances supervene on the distribution of categorical properties in the world (past, present, and future). I map out the logical structure of the Big Bad Bug, survey a range of possible responses to it, and argue that none of the responses are very appealing. Chapter 2 discusses Bas van Fraassen's Reflection principle-the thesis that one's current credence in a proposition A should equal one's expected future credence in A. Van Fraassen has formulated a diachronic Dutch book argument for Reflection, but other authors cite counterexamples to Reflection that appear to undermine the credibility of diachronic Dutch books. I argue that a suitably qualified version of Reflection gets around the counterexamples. I distinguish between Dutch books that reveal incoherence-like the diachronic Dutch book for conditionalization-and Dutch books that reveal a type of problem I call selfdoubt. I argue that violating Reflection is a type of self-doubt rather than a type of incoherence.
(cont.) Chapter 3 argues that the halfer and thirder solutions to Adam Elga's Sleeping Beauty problem correspond to two more general approaches to de se information. Which approach is right depends on which approach to decision theory is right. I use Dutch books and scoring rules to argue that causal decision theorists should favor the approach that corresponds to thirding, while evidential decision theorists should favor the approach that corresponds to halfing.
by Rachael Briggs.
Ph.D.
Selvidge, Jordan R. « Managing One-to-One Initiatives : Implementation Analysis Through Expert Elicitation ». Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2016. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/3143.
Texte intégralSchneider, Mark. « Studies in risk perception and financial literacy : applications using subjective belief elicitation ». Doctoral thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30349.
Texte intégralWest, Daune. « Towards a subjective knowledge elicitation methodology for the development of expert systems ». Thesis, University of Portsmouth, 1991. https://researchportal.port.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/towards-a-subjective-knowledge-elicitation-methodology-for-the-development-of-expert-systems(d63c460a-f71c-492d-9150-15c31becdb5b).html.
Texte intégralAlkhairy, Ibrahim H. « Designing and Encoding Scenario-based Expert Elicitation for Large Conditional Probability Tables ». Thesis, Griffith University, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/390794.
Texte intégralThesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
School of Info & Comm Tech
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
Full Text
Akram, Muhammad Farooq. « A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation ». Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/47717.
Texte intégralIamsumang, Chonlagarn. « A framework for nuclear facility safeguard evaluation using probabilistic methods and expert elicitation ». Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/76528.
Texte intégralCataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 99-100).
With the advancement of the next generation of nuclear fuel cycle facilities, concerns of the effectiveness of nuclear facility safeguards have been increasing due to the inclusion of highly enriched material and reprocessing capability into fuel cycles. Therefore, an extensive and quantitative safeguard evaluation is required in order for the decision makers to have a consistent measure to verify safeguards level of protection, and to effectively improve the current safeguard scheme. The framework presented in this study provides a systematic method for safeguard evaluation of any nuclear facility. Using scenario analysis approach, a diversion scenario consists of target material, target location, diversion technique, set of tactics to help elude the safeguards, and the amount of material diverted per attempt. The success tree methodology and expert elicitation is used to construct logical models and obtain the probabilities of basic events. Then proliferator diversion success probabilities can be derived from the model for all possible scenarios in a given facility. Using Rokkasho reprocessing facility as an example, diversion pathways, uncertainty, sensitivity, and importance measure analyses are shown. Results from the analyses can be used by the safeguarder to gauge the level of protection provided by the current safeguard scheme, and to identify the weak points for improvements. The safeguarder is able to further analyze the effectiveness of the safeguard scheme for different facility designs, and the cost effectiveness analysis will help the safeguarder allocate limited resources for maximum possible protection against a material diversion.
by Chonlagarn Iamsumang.
S.M.
Okoli, Justin. « Expert knowledge elicitation in the firefighting domain and the implications for training novices ». Thesis, Middlesex University, 2016. http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/22940/.
Texte intégralBurge, Janet E. « Knowledge Elicitation for Design Task Sequencing Knowledge ». Digital WPI, 1999. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/1062.
Texte intégralZampa, Nicholas Joseph. « Structured Expert Judgment Elicitation of Use Error Probabilities for Drug Delivery Device Risk Assessment ». Thesis, The George Washington University, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10841440.
Texte intégralIn the pharmaceutical industry, estimating the probability of occurrence for use errors and use-error-causes (here forth referred to as use error probabilities) when developing drug delivery devices is hindered by a lack of data, ultimately limiting the ability to conduct robust usability risk assessments. A lack of reliable data is the result of small sample sizes and challenges simulating actual use environments in simulated use studies, compromising the applicability of observed use error rates. Further, post-market surveillance databases and internal complaint databases are limited in their ability to provide reliable data for product development. Inadequate usability risk assessment hinders drug delivery device manufacturers' understanding of safety and efficacy risks. The current industry and regulatory paradigm with respect to use error probabilities is to de-emphasize them, focusing instead of assessing the severity of harms. However, de-emphasis of use error probabilities is not rooted in a belief that probability estimates inherently lack value. Rather, the status quo is based on the absence of suitable methodologies for estimating use error probabilities.
In instances in which data is lacking, engineers and scientist may turn to structured expert judgment elicitation methodologies, in which subjective expert opinions are quantified and aggregated in a scientific manner. This research is a case study in adapting and applying one particular structured expert judgment methodology, Cooke’s Classical model, to human factors experts for estimating use error probabilities for a drug delivery device. Results indicate that a performance-weighted linear pooling of expert judgments significantly outperforms any one expert and an equal-weighted linear pooling. Additionally, this research demonstrates that a performance-weighted linear pooling of expert judgments is statistically accurate, robust to the choice of experts, and robust to choice elicitation questions. Lastly, this research validates the good statistical accuracy of a performance-weighted linear pooling of experts on a new set of use error probabilities, indicating that good expert performance translates to use error probabilities estimates for different devices. Through structured expert judgment elicitation according to Cooke’s Classical model, this research demonstrates that it is possible to reinstall use error probability estimates, with quantified uncertainty, into usability risk assessments for drug delivery devices.
Aucher, Guillaume, et n/a. « Perspectives on belief and change ». University of Otago. Department of Computer Science, 2008. http://adt.otago.ac.nz./public/adt-NZDU20081003.115428.
Texte intégralHenshall, Anthony Wilton. « An investigation into the possibility of using sociological research methodologies for the elicitation of tacit knowledge for building knowledge intensive systems ». Thesis, University of Salford, 1995. http://usir.salford.ac.uk/14775/.
Texte intégralIslam, Raihan Ul. « Wireless Sensor Network Based Flood Prediction Using Belief Rule Based Expert System ». Licentiate thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Datavetenskap, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-66415.
Texte intégralGilson, Robert. « Minimizing input acquisition costs in a Bayesian belief network-based expert system / ». Thesis, Connect to this title online ; UW restricted, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/8763.
Texte intégralWerner, Christoph. « Structured expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling of uncertainty : advances along the dependence elicitation process ». Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2018. http://digitool.lib.strath.ac.uk:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=30519.
Texte intégralTaalab, Khaled Paul. « Modelling soil bulk density using data-mining and expert knowledge ». Thesis, Cranfield University, 2013. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/8273.
Texte intégralHeltne, Mari Montri. « Knowledge-based support for management of end user computing resources : Issues in knowledge elicitation and flexible design ». Diss., The University of Arizona, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/184429.
Texte intégralPestana, Marco Aurélio. « Elicitação de especialistas em estudos de confiabilidade e análise de risco ». Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/3/3135/tde-12072017-080326/.
Texte intégralThe purpose of this dissertationis to present the use of expert opinion and other relevant issues on the subjective assessment of uncertainties in risk analysis and reliability studies, presenting a practical case study. In reliability studies a major concern is to determine the frequencies of occurrence of events and their behavior through time. Often, the available data are not representative enough to evaluate the event probability or it is obsolete for use. In these cases, the elicitation of expert opinion is an alternative to supplement these data absences, Thus enabling a better uncertainties analysis. Based on the subjectivity condition, the elicitation of experts aims to quantify the uncertainty considering the previous experiences and current state of knowledge. Combined with mathematical elicitation methods, it enables the manegement of information conflicts in order to reach consensus and makes possible a subjective analysis of problems.
Fooladvandi, Farzad. « Signature-based activity detection based on Bayesian networks acquired from expert knowledge ». Thesis, University of Skövde, School of Humanities and Informatics, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:his:diva-1123.
Texte intégralThe maritime industry is experiencing one of its longest and fastest periods of growth. Hence, the global maritime surveillance capacity is in a great need of growth as well. The detection of vessel activity is an important objective of the civil security domain. Detecting vessel activity may become problematic if audit data is uncertain. This thesis aims to investigate if Bayesian networks acquired from expert knowledge can detect activities with a signature-based detection approach. For this, a maritime pilot-boat scenario has been identified with a domain expert. Each of the scenario’s activities has been divided up into signatures where each signature relates to a specific Bayesian network information node. The signatures were implemented to find evidences for the Bayesian network information nodes. AIS-data with real world observations have been used for testing, which have shown that it is possible to detect the maritime pilot-boat scenario based on the taken approach.
Suermondt, Henri Jacques. « Explanation in Bayesian belief networks ». Full text available online (restricted access), 1992. http://images.lib.monash.edu.au/ts/theses/suermondt.pdf.
Texte intégralMonrat, Ahmed Afif. « A BELIEF RULE BASED FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT EXPERT SYSTEM USING REAL TIME SENSOR DATA STREAMING ». Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Datavetenskap, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-71081.
Texte intégralHridoy, Md Rafiul Sabbir. « An Intelligent Flood Risk Assessment System using Belief Rule Base ». Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för system- och rymdteknik, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-65390.
Texte intégralFarr, Anna C. « Understanding wayfinding : A Bayesian network approach ». Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2016. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/95789/1/Anna_Farr_Thesis.pdf.
Texte intégralZhou, Fan. « The impacts of car-sharing and shared autonomous vehicles on urban mobility : Towards a sustainable future ». Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2018. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/121497/1/Fan_Zhou_Thesis.pdf.
Texte intégralPirathiban, Ramethaa. « Improving species distribution modelling : Selecting absences and eliciting variable usefulness for input into standard algorithms or a Bayesian hierarchical meta-factor model ». Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2019. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/134401/1/Ramethaa_Pirathiban_Thesis.pdf.
Texte intégralHajj, Paméla El. « Méthodes d'aide à la décision thérapeutique dans les cas des maladies rares : intérêt des méthodes bayésiennes et application à la maladie de Horton ». Thesis, Montpellier, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017MONTS037/document.
Texte intégralIn recent years, scientists have difficulties to study rare diseases by conventional methods, because the sample size needed in such studies to meet a conventional frequentist power is not adapted to the number of available patients. After systemically searching in literature and characterizing different methods used in the contest of rare diseases, we remarked that most of the proposed methods are deterministic and are globally unsatisfactory because it is difficult to correct the insufficient statistical power.More attention has been placed on Bayesian models which through a prior distribution combined with a current study enable to draw decisionsfrom a posterior distribution. Determination of the prior distribution in a Bayesian model is challenging, we will describe the process of determining the prior including the possibility of considering information from some historical controlled trials and/or data coming from other studies sufficiently close to the subject of interest.First, we describe a Bayesian model that aims to test the hypothesis of the non-inferiority trial based on the hypothesis that methotrexate is more effective than corticosteroids alone.On the other hand, our work rests on the use of the epsilon-contamination method, which is based on contaminating an a priori not entirely satisfactory by a series of distributions drawn from information on other studies sharing close conditions,treatments or even populations. Contamination is a way to include the proximity of information provided bythese studies
Larkin, Patricia Marguerite. « An Integrated Risk Management Framework for Carbon Capture and Storage in the Canadian Context ». Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/35881.
Texte intégralBen, Abdallah Nadia. « Modeling sea-level rise uncertainties for coastal defence adaptation using belief functions ». Thesis, Compiègne, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014COMP1616.
Texte intégralCoastal adaptation is an imperative to deal with the elevation of the global sealevel caused by the ongoing global warming. However, when defining adaptationactions, coastal engineers encounter substantial uncertainties in the assessment of future hazards and risks. These uncertainties may stem from a limited knowledge (e.g., about the magnitude of the future sea-level rise) or from the natural variabilityof some quantities (e.g., extreme sea conditions). A proper consideration of these uncertainties is of principal concern for efficient design and adaptation.The objective of this work is to propose a methodology for uncertainty analysis based on the theory of belief functions – an uncertainty formalism that offers greater features to handle both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties than probabilities.In particular, it allows to represent more faithfully experts’ incomplete knowledge (quantiles, intervals, etc.) and to combine multi-sources evidence taking into account their dependences and reliabilities. Statistical evidence can be modeledby like lihood-based belief functions, which are simply the translation of some inference principles in evidential terms. By exploiting the mathematical equivalence between belief functions and random intervals, uncertainty can be propagated through models by Monte Carlo simulations. We use this method to quantify uncertainty in future projections of the elevation of the global sea level by 2100 and evaluate its impact on some coastal risk indicators used in coastal design. Sea-level rise projections are derived from physical modelling, expert elicitation, and historical sea-level measurements. Then, within a methodologically-oriented case study,we assess the impact of climate change on extreme sea conditions and evaluate there inforcement of a typical coastal defence asset so that its functional performance is maintained
Fucik, Markus. « Bayesian risk management : "Frequency does not make you smarter" ». Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2010. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2011/5308/.
Texte intégralDie vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit den Ansätzen eines Bayes’schen Risikomanagements zur Messung von Risiken. Dabei konzentriert sich die Arbeit auf folgende zentrale Fragestellungen: (1) Wie ist es möglich, transparent Risiken zu quantifizieren, falls nur eine begrenzte Anzahl an geeigneten historischen Beobachtungen zur Datenanalyse zur Verfügung steht? (2) Wie ist es möglich, transparent Risiken zu quantifizieren, falls mangels geeigneter historischer Beobachtungen keine Datenanalyse möglich ist? (3) Inwieweit ist es möglich, Willkür und Beliebigkeit bei der Risikoquantifizierung zu begrenzen? Zur Beantwortung der ersten Frage schlägt diese Arbeit die Anwendung der Bayes’schen Statistik vor. Im Gegensatz zu klassischen Kleinste-Quadrate bzw. Maximum-Likelihood Punktschätzern können Bayes’sche A-Posteriori Verteilungen die dateninduzierte Parameter- und Modellunsicherheit explizit messen. Als Anwendungsbeispiel werden in der Arbeit zwölf verschiedene stochastische Prozesse an CO2-Preiszeitreihen mittels des effizienten Bayes’schen Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Simulationsalgorithmus kalibriert. Da die Bayes’sche Statistik die Berechnung von Modellwahrscheinlichkeiten zur kardinalen Modellgütemessung erlaubt, konnten Log-Varianz Prozesse als mit Abstand beste Modellklasse identifiziert werden. Für ausgewählte Prozesse wurden zusätzlich die Auswirkung von Parameterunsicherheit auf abgeleitete Risikomaße (ex-ante/ ex-post Value-at-Risks, regulatorische Kapitalrücklagen, Optionspreise) untersucht. Generell sind die Unterschiede zwischen Bayes’schen und klassischen Risikomaßen umso größer, je komplexer die Modellannahmen für den CO2-Preis sind. Überdies sind Bayes’sche Value-at-Risks und Kapitalrücklagen konservativer als ihre klassischen Pendants (Risikoprämie für Parameterunsicherheit). Bezüglich der zweiten Frage ist die in dieser Arbeit vertretene Position, dass eine Risikoquantifizierung ohne (ausreichend) verlässliche Daten nur durch die Berücksichtigung von Expertenwissen erfolgen kann. Dies erfordert ein strukturiertes Vorgehen. Daher wird das integrated Bayesian Risk Analysis (iBRA) Konzept vorgestellt, welches Konzepte, Techniken und Werkzeuge zur expertenbasierten Identifizierung und Quantifizierung von Risikofaktoren und deren Abhängigkeiten vereint. Darüber hinaus bietet es Ansätze für den Umgang mit konkurrierenden Expertenmeinungen. Da gerade ressourceneffiziente Werkzeuge zur Quantifizierung von Expertenwissen von besonderem Interesse für die Praxis sind, wurden im Rahmen dieser Arbeit der Onlinemarkt PCXtrade und die Onlinebefragungsplattform PCXquest konzipiert und mehrfach erfolgreich getestet. In zwei empirischen Studien wurde zudem untersucht, inwieweit Menschen überhaupt in der Lage sind, ihre Unsicherheiten zu quantifizieren und inwieweit sie Selbsteinschätzungen von Experten bewerten. Die Ergebnisse deuten an, dass Menschen zu einer Selbstüberschätzung ihrer Prognosefähigkeiten neigen und tendenziell hohes Vertrauen in solche Experteneinschätzungen zeigen, zu denen der jeweilige Experte selbst hohes Zutrauen geäußert hat. Zu letzterer Feststellung ist jedoch zu bemerken, dass ein nicht unbeträchtlicher Teil der Befragten sehr hohe Selbsteinschätzung des Experten als negativ ansehen. Da der Bayesianismus Wahrscheinlichkeiten als Maß für die persönliche Unsicherheit propagiert, bietet er keinerlei Rahmen für die Verifizierung bzw. Falsifizierung von Einschätzungen. Dies wird mitunter mit Beliebigkeit gleichgesetzt und könnte einer der Gründe sein, dass offen praktizierter Bayesianismus in Deutschland ein Schattendasein fristet. Die vorliegende Arbeit stellt daher das Konzept des Bayesian Due Diligence zur Diskussion. Es schlägt eine kriterienbasierte Bewertung von Experteneinschätzungen vor, welche insbesondere die Intersubjektivität und den Informationsgehalt von Einschätzungen beleuchtet.
Oteniya, Lloyd. « Bayesian belief networks for dementia diagnosis and other applications : a comparison of hand-crafting and construction using a novel data driven technique ». Thesis, University of Stirling, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/497.
Texte intégralBarbour, Emily. « Quantitative modelling for assessing system trade-offs in environmental flow management ». Phd thesis, Canberra, ACT : The Australian National University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/109583.
Texte intégralAl-Ani, Ahmed Karim. « An improved pattern classification system using optimal feature selection, classifier combination, and subspace mapping techniques ». Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2002.
Trouver le texte intégralO'Leary, Rebecca A. « Informed statistical modelling of habitat suitability for rare and threatened species ». Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2008. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/17779/1/Rebecca_O%27Leary_Thesis.pdf.
Texte intégralO'Leary, Rebecca A. « Informed statistical modelling of habitat suitability for rare and threatened species ». Queensland University of Technology, 2008. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/17779/.
Texte intégralMAGRINI, ALESSANDRO. « A Bayesian network for the diagnosis of cardiopulmonary diseases : Learning from medical experts and clinical data ». Doctoral thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2158/841701.
Texte intégral黃國禎. « = New knowledge elicitation methods for constructing expert systems ». Thesis, 1991. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/32921369062265519472.
Texte intégral« Expert knowledge elicitation to improve mental and formal models ». Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/2654.
Texte intégralIncludes bibliographical references (p. 24-25).
Supported by the Python organization, the Organizational Learning Center and the System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management.
Cruickshank, Claire. « Does the Elicitation Mode Matter ? Comparing Different Methods for Eliciting Expert Judgement ». 2018. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/masters_theses_2/634.
Texte intégralDunn, Jessamine Corey. « Bayesian Networks with Expert Elicitation as Applicable to Student Retention in Institutional Research ». 2016. http://scholarworks.gsu.edu/eps_diss/146.
Texte intégralYang, Yung-Hsiang, et 楊詠翔. « Study on Expert Experience Elicitation Applied to Bayesian Network – An Example of Construction Safety ». Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98224660923602026560.
Texte intégral國立臺灣科技大學
營建工程系
97
Bayesian Network is an effective analysis method, and it is used in many domains in recent year. In construction engineering, many risk factors bring much uncertainty, and analyst cannot obtain the correct probabilities because of the lack of historical data. In the situation, how to obtain the probabilities of all the factors in every state will become an important topic. In order to build a method process to acquire experts’ subjective probabilities, this research will investigate how to obtain the accurate values in the conditional probability table (CPT) of Bayesian Network by experts’ subjective judgment elicitation if there is lack of the historical data. At the same time, the research will also bring an useful software into the method process that analyst could obtain the values efficiently, and thus use the accurate and reliable values to proceed the Bayesian Network Analysis in order to create the valid results.
Kabir, Sohag, T. K. Goek, M. Kumar, M. Yazdi et F. Hossain. « A method for temporal fault tree analysis using intuitionistic fuzzy set and expert elicitation ». 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17992.
Texte intégralTemporal fault trees (TFTs), an extension of classical Boolean fault trees, can model time-dependent failure behaviour of dynamic systems. The methodologies used for quantitative analysis of TFTs include algebraic solutions, Petri nets (PN), and Bayesian networks (BN). In these approaches, precise failure data of components are usually used to calculate the probability of the top event of a TFT. However, it can be problematic to obtain these precise data due to the imprecise and incomplete information about the components of a system. In this paper, we propose a framework that combines intuitionistic fuzzy set theory and expert elicitation to enable quantitative analysis of TFTs of dynamic systems with uncertain data. Experts’ opinions are taken into account to compute the failure probability of the basic events of the TFT as intuitionistic fuzzy numbers. Subsequently, for the algebraic approach, the intuitionistic fuzzy operators for the logic gates of TFT are defined to quantify the TFT. On the other hand, for the quantification of TFTs via PN and BN-based approaches, the intuitionistic fuzzy numbers are defuzzified to be used in these approaches. As a result, the framework can be used with all the currently available TFT analysis approaches. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is illustrated via application to a practical system and through a comparison of the results of each approach.
This work was supported in part by the Mobile IOT: Location Aware project (grant no. MMUE/180025) and Indoor Internet of Things (IOT) Tracking Algorithm Development based on Radio Signal Characterisation project (grant no. FRGS/1/2018/TK08/MMU/02/1). This research also received partial support from DEIS H2020 project (grant no. 732242).
Alvarado-Valencia, J., L. H. Barrero, Dilek Onkal et J. T. Dennerlein. « Expertise, credibility of system forecasts and integration methods in judgmental demand forecasting ». 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/13387.
Texte intégralExpert knowledge elicitation lies at the core of judgmental forecasting—a domain that relies fully on the power of such knowledge and its integration into forecasting. Using experts in a demand forecasting framework, this work aims to compare the accuracy improvements and forecasting performances of three judgmental integration methods. To do this, a field study was conducted with 31 experts from four companies. The methods compared were the judgmental adjustment, the 50–50 combination, and the divide-and-conquer. Forecaster expertise, the credibility of system forecasts and the need to rectify system forecasts were also assessed, and mechanisms for performing this assessment were considered. When (a) a forecaster’s relative expertise was high, (b) the relative credibility of the system forecasts was low, and (c) the system forecasts had a strong need of correction, judgmental adjustment improved the accuracy relative to both the other integration methods and the system forecasts. Experts with higher levels of expertise showed higher adjustment frequencies. Our results suggest that judgmental adjustment promises to be valuable in the long term if adequate conditions of forecaster expertise and the credibility of system forecasts are met.
Czembor, Christina Anne. « Incorporating uncertainty into expert models for management of box-ironbark forests and woodlands in Victoria, Australia ». 2009. http://repository.unimelb.edu.au/10187/5801.
Texte intégralThe effects of each management strategy are not easy to predict due to complex interactions between intervention and stochastic natural processes. Forest simulation models are often employed to overcome this problem. I constructed state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) to predict the effects of alternative management actions and natural disturbances on vegetation structure. Due to a lack of empirical data, I relied on the knowledge of experts in Box-Ironbark ecology and management to construct STSMs. Models predicted that the development of mature woodlands under all strategies was minimal over the next 150 years, and neither current harvesting nor ecological thinning is likely to expedite the development of mature stands relative to growth and natural disturbances. However, differences in experts’ opinions led to widely diverging model predictions.
Uncertainty must be acknowledged in model construction because it can affect model predictions. I quantified uncertainty due to four sources – between-expert variation, imperfect expert knowledge, natural stochasticity, and model parameterization – to determine which source caused the most variance in model predictions. I found that models were very uncertain and between-expert uncertainty contributed the majority of variance in model predictions. This brings into question the use of consensus methods in forest management where differences between experts are ignored.
Using uncertain model predictions to make management decisions is problematic because any given action can have many plausible outcomes. I applied several decision criteria to uncertain STSM predictions using a formal decision-making framework to determine the optimal management action in Box-Ironbark forests and woodlands. I found that natural development is the most risk-averse option, while ecological thinning is the most risky option because there is a small likelihood that it will greatly expedite the development of mature woodlands. Rather than selecting one option, managers could rely on a risk-spreading approach where the majority of land is allocated to no-cutting National Parks and a small amount of land is allocated to the other two harvesting strategies. This would allow managers to collect monitoring data for all management strategies in order to learn about effects of harvesting and update model predictions through time using adaptive management.
Classen, Selwyn Ivor. « Using storytelling to elicit tacit knowledge from subject matter experts in an organization ». Thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/3486.
Texte intégralKnowledge Management has been at the heart of mounting focus over the last several years. Research and literature on the area under discussion has grown and organizations have come to realize that success is often determined by one’s ability to create, disseminate, and embody knowledge in products and services. This realization has led to increased interest in examining the ways in which knowledge can be effectively identified, elicited, codified, distributed and retained.When an employee leaves an organization, the knowledge they possess often goes with them. This loss can potentially have a negative impact on the productivity and quality of the organization. Knowledge Management seeks to find ways to minimize loss of knowledge when an employee leaves an organization. One of the impediments that knowledge management seeks to overcome is the accepted tendency in people to hoard knowledge. People often withhold knowledge when they feel it provides them with a competitive advantage over others. The argument of this study was intended to provide the organization with an approach that it can utilize to facilitate tacit knowledge elicitation by means of the storytelling method.In keeping with Grounded theory principles, and utilising an interpretive approach, stories from Subject Matter Experts were collected and re-coded into fitting knowledge management constructs. The coding of the stories into the various knowledge management constructs was then further refined by means of expert review. Pearson’s cross correlation analysis was also used as a supporting tool to determine and validate that the collected stories were classified correctly under the knowledge management constructs. The research findings eventually demonstrated that storytelling is an effective means of eliciting tacit knowledge from experts. In addition to this, the research has inadvertently resulted in the construction of a knowledge management framework for storytelling.
Hsieh, Chien-Wen, et 謝千文. « The Study of Teaching Belief and Teaching Behavior of A Somatic Education Expert Teacher : Taking Pilates Course as An Example ». Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/gd32f9.
Texte intégral國立臺東大學
體育學系碩士班
96
The purpose of the study is to explore the relationship among teaching belief and teaching behavior for a somatic education expert teacher in the Pilates course. I collected qualitative data of the expert teacher
Kashuba, Roxolana Oresta. « Bayesian Methods to Characterize Uncertainty in Predictive Modeling of the Effect of Urbanization on Aquatic Ecosystems ». Diss., 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10161/2366.
Texte intégralUrbanization causes myriad changes in watershed processes, ultimately disrupting the structure and function of stream ecosystems. Urban development introduces contaminants (human waste, pesticides, industrial chemicals). Impervious surfaces and artificial drainage systems speed the delivery of contaminants to streams, while bypassing soil filtration and local riparian processes that can mitigate the impacts of these contaminants, and disrupting the timing and volume of hydrologic patterns. Aquatic habitats where biota live are degraded by sedimentation, channel incision, floodplain disconnection, substrate alteration and elimination of reach diversity. These compounding changes ultimately lead to alteration of invertebrate community structure and function. Because the effects of urbanization on stream ecosystems are complex, multilayered, and interacting, modeling these effects presents many unique challenges, including: addressing and quantifying processes at multiple scales, representing major interrelated simultaneously acting dynamics at the system level, incorporating uncertainty resulting from imperfect knowledge, imperfect data, and environmental variability, and integrating multiple sources of available information about the system into the modeling construct. These challenges can be addressed by using a Bayesian modeling approach. Specifically, the use of multilevel hierarchical models and Bayesian network models allows the modeler to harness the hierarchical nature of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Effect of Urbanization on Stream Ecosystems (EUSE) dataset to predict invertebrate response at both basin and regional levels, concisely represent and parameterize this system of complicated cause and effect relationships and uncertainties, calculate the full probabilistic function of all variables efficiently as the product of more manageable conditional probabilities, and includes both expert knowledge and data. Utilizing this Bayesian framework, this dissertation develops a series of statistically rigorous and ecologically interpretable models predicting the effect of urbanization on invertebrates, as well as a unique, systematic methodology that creates an informed expert prior and then updates this prior with available data using conjugate Dirichlet-multinomial distribution forms. The resulting models elucidate differences between regional responses to urbanization (particularly due to background agriculture and precipitation) and address the influences of multiple urban induced stressors acting simultaneously from a new system-level perspective. These Bayesian modeling approaches quantify previously unexplained regional differences in biotic response to urbanization, capture multiple interacting environmental and ecological processes affected by urbanization, and ultimately link urbanization effects on stream biota to a management context such that these models describe and quantify how changes in drivers lead to changes in regulatory endpoint (the Biological Condition Gradient; BCG).
Dissertation
Pietrocatelli, Simon. « Analyse bayésienne et élicitation d’opinions d’experts en analyse de risques et particulièrement dans le cas de l’amiante chrysotile ». Thèse, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/3345.
Texte intégralCharacterizing the carcinogenic potency of chrysotile asbestos fibres relies a great deal on subjective and uncertain judgements by experts and analysts, given heterogeneous and equivocal results of important epidemiological and toxicological studies. The probabilistic Bayesian approach in risk assessments quantifies these subjective judgements and their uncertainties, along with their impact on risk estimations, but it is rarely used in the public health context. This report examines how the Bayesian approach could have been applied to a recent elicitation of experts’ opinions to estimate the toxicity of chrysotile asbestos, the degree of convergence and divergence, as well as the uncertainty levels of these experts. The experts’ estimations on the relative toxicity of chrysotile and amphibole asbestos were similar in the case of mesothelioma. However, in the case of lung cancer, the heterogeneity of the studies resulted in diverging and incompatible probabilistic evaluations. The experts’ judgements seemed influenced by heuristic biases, particularly the affect and anchor heuristics associated with a controversial topic and to heterogeneous data. If the elicitation process had been prepared following a rigorous methodology, these heuristics and biases could have been mitigated.
« Reliability Information and Testing Integration for New Product Design ». Doctoral diss., 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.25799.
Texte intégralDissertation/Thesis
Doctoral Dissertation Industrial Engineering 2014
Chou, Shu-Chiung, et 周淑瓊. « A Comparative Study of the Belief, Cognition, Act Strategies and the Effects of Classroom Management between the Expert and Novice Teachers in the Junior High School ». Thesis, 1999. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/39876699871523936936.
Texte intégral國立臺灣師範大學
教育心理與輔導研究所
87
A Comparative Study of the Belief, Cognition, Act Strategies and the Effects of Classroom Management between the Expert and Novice Teachers in the Junior High School Shu-Chiung Chou Abstract The purposes of this study were: 1.to investigate the belief, cognition, and act strategies of classroom management between the expert and novice teachers in the junior high school; 2.to compare the effects of classroom management between the expert and novice teachers in the junior high school. The methods used in this study were interview and observation. The subjects of this study were two junior high school teachers, one expert teacher and one novice teacher, and 69 students of their classes. The researcher analyzed the contents obtained from the transcript of the interviews, and summarized the findings of the belief, cognition, act strategies, and other aspects of classroom management between the expert and the novice teachers. Also, The researcher compared the effects of classroom management between the expert and the novice teachers by analyzing the data of the 69 students'' scores on '''' Students'' Perception of School Life Scale''''. The major findings were as follows: 1.The expert teacher'' belief of classroom management was apt to the humanistic approach, and the expert teacher considered the goal of education was cultivating the students'' good characteristics. Meanwhile, the novice teacher'' belief of classroom management consisted of the humanistic and the behavioristic approaches. 2.The expert teacher'' cognition about classroom management was from the humanistic perspective, and the expert teacher contented the psychological needs of the students and raised the students'' sense of self-worth. The novice teacher'' cognition of classroom management was confused with the ideas between the humanistic and the behavioristic approaches. 3.The expert teacher'' act strategies of classroom management was based on the humanistic approach. The expert teacher made good use of the act strategies according to the different situations and the differences of students. Besides, the expert teacher used the production rules to distinguish the situations clearly and proposed the effective classroom management act strategies. But the novice teacher'' act strategies of classroom management were based on both the humanistic and the behavioristic approaches. Though having the declarative knowledge, the novice teacher was not familiar with the procedural knowledge. 4.The expert teacher confronted the stress and problems of the work in positive attitude, but the novice teacher moved away from the difficulties and the stress of the work. Sometimes, the novice teacher asked others for help and adopted their suggestions, but the novice teacher didn''t get appropriate assistance at all times. 5.The expert teacher reacted to problems quickly and instinctively, and used the procedural knowledge to solve the problems. But the novice teacher focused on the surface of the problems, and didn''t solve the problems efficiently. 6.The expert teacher had an evaluation criterion of her own and was contented with her works. But the novice teacher assessed herself with others'' criteria. She was disappointed in herself and lost her confidence in teaching. 7.The expert teacher actively contacted students'' parents, and work in close cooperation with them. But the novice teacher not having correct attitude and good communication skills didn''t efficiently get any help from students'' parents. 8.Students'' perception of the effects of classroom management between the expert and the novice teachers was different in ''''arranging classroom environment'''', ''''establishing rules'''', ''''having good communication skills'''', ''''managing problem behaviors'''' But there were no difference in ''''organizing class procedures'''' and ''''supervising students'' activities''''. 9.In summary, the expert teacher'' belief, cognition, and act strategies of classroom management was apt to the humanistic approach. The expert teacher was satisfied with her performance and confirmed her belief, cognition, and act strategies of classroom management, but the novice teacher'' belief, cognition, and act strategies of classroom management was inconsistent and the novice teacher suspected her teaching abilities. According to the major findings, suggestions for the normal education, the novice teachers and future researches were offered.
Lin, Yi-Hsuan, et 林易萱. « A Comparative Study of Teachers' Belief, Professional Commitment, and Classroom Management Effectiveness between Novice Teachers and Expert Teachers in Junior and Senior High Schools in Taiwan ». Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/6d7w6v.
Texte intégral國立彰化師範大學
教育研究所
104
A Comparative Study of Teachers’ Belief, Professional Commitment, and Classroom Management Effectiveness between Novice Teachers and Expert Teachers in Junior and Senior High Schools in Taiwan Advisor: Hsin-Yi Kung, Ph. D. Author: Yi-Hsuan Lin Abstract The purpose of this study was to explore whether years of teaching has impact on teachers’ belief, professional commitment, and classroom management effectiveness. Novices who are homeroom teachers with one to three years of teaching are qualified. Experts who have at least six years of homeroom teacher experience and at least ten years of teaching are qualified. The participants were 302 teachers from public junior and senior high schools in Taiwan, including 150 novices and 152 experts. A questionnaire was adopted as the instrument for this study. Data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics, independent sample t-test and multiple regression analysis. The findings of this study were as follows: first, teachers’ belief was medium-high level, professional commitment was medium-high level, and classroom management effectiveness was medium-high level for both novices and experts. Second, there were no significant differences on teachers’ belief in terms of years of teaching. Third, there was a significant difference on professional commitment. Experts have more attempt on advanced studies than novices. Fourth, there were significant differences on classroom management effectiveness. Experts had better classroom management efficacy in class rules, learning environment arrangement, teaching quality, and students’ academic achievement. Fifth, teacher’s professional identity can positively predict classroom management effectiveness among novices. Final, teacher’s professional identity, job involvement and teacher-student relationship can positively predict classroom management effectiveness among experts. In general, experts appeared to possess comparatively richer prediction of classroom management effectiveness. Based on the findings of the study, some suggestions were proposed for educational administration institutions, schools, teachers, and future researchers. Keywords: novice teacher, expert teacher, teachers’ belief, professional commitment, classroom management effectiveness