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Muhindi, Solomon Peter Kavai. « Conflict management in Kenyan electoral conflict : 2002-2012 ». Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/12286.
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In the recent years, majority of African countries have been faced by conflicts during election periods. Some of the electoral related conflicts escalated into violence, and they have been transformed or managed. While other electoral related conflicts have just been prevented during the election periods but remain latent conflicts that would escalate triggered by future elections. This study focuses specifically on electoral conflicts in Kenya and its conflict management perspective from 2002-2013. To transform and manage the conflict, peacebuilding initiatives have been integrated in the study. The prime actors in Kenya electoral conflict includes the; the ruling party coalition, the leading opposition coalition and ethnic groupings affiliated to the ruling party and opposition. Other peripheral actors include: the Independent, Electoral and Boundary Commission (IEBC), the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the judiciary. Triangulation (the combination of two or more methods of collecting and analysing data) has been adopted both in data collection and analysis. Focus group interviews, selected individual interviews, and literature reviews were used to collect data, while research findings were analysed systematically using the constructivist grounded theory. Moreover, the liberal peace theory, Institutionalisation before Liberalisation (IBL) and findings from other researchers like (Elder, Stigant and Claes 2014:1-20), and the Afrobarometer research findings (Kivuva 2015) have been used to authenticate the research findings. Research findings indicates that claims of election rigging, numerous institutional failures, negative ethnicity and economic disparity, among other factors heighten the fear and anxiety that escalates during elections. Towards achieving peacebuilding and sustainable peace, the following reforms were undertaken: constitutional changes and reviews, electoral body reform, judicial reform, pursuit of transitional justice, extensive range of local initiatives reforms and police reforms. However, findings in the study also reveal that despite the latter reforms, peacebuilding measures have been short-term, temporal, and not fully successful, leaving behind a latent conflict that could be triggered again with future electoral conflicts. Besides that, negotiation, dialogue and mediation played a role in restoring trust and confidence in the democratic structures after escalated elections. We also recommend that multi-ethnic composition for electoral coalitions should also be adopted as a means to mitigate ethnic triggered conflicts.
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Frolova, Ksenia. « Presidential elections - Russia 2012 ». Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-161879.
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The uniqueness of 2012 Presidential election campaign lies in some new trends: for the first time Internet played such an important role in influencing voters. It's not just about traditional official websites of the candidates, but first and foremost about campaigning in blogs and social networks. The opposition, including "off-system" one (which is advocating the overthrow of the ruling elite), was much more active in this field. The Internet space became the scene of this conflict, and we should expect that it would only escalate in the future.
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Fuller, Jan. « Využití nástrojů politického marketingu v předvolební kampani ODS ve volbách do krajského zastupitelstva Jihomoravského kraje 2012 ». Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-142250.
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Almeida, Camilo Ximenes. « A participação de sociedades timorense nas eleições presidenciais:um estudo comparativo das eleições presidenciais de 2002, 2012 e 2012 ». Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/5879.
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Dissertação de Mestrado em Ciências PolíticasO presente trabalho insere-se na área de Ciências Sociais e Políticas. Nesta área disciplinar abordamos o tema “Participação da Sociedade Timorense Nas Eleições Presidenciais”. É um estudo comparativo sobre as eleições presidenciais que ocorreram em Timor-Leste, entre 2002 e 2012. A investigação teve como objetivo analisar o nível e o tipo de empenho da participação da sociedade timorense enquanto povo e nação nessas ditas eleições, segundo o conceito de Estado soberano defendido por John Locke. Este trabalho tem assim como objetivo geral principal, por um lado, melhorar a compreensão relativamente à responsabilidade dos cidadãos timorenses na política de consolidação do estado democrático; e, por outro lado, uma tentativa de dar conhecer a realidade política e cívica que norteia a sociedade timorense, nesta primeira década do século XXI, já num quadro de uma nação totalmente livre e soberana. De uma forma mais concreta, os objetivos específicos deste estudo são os seguintes: 1) fazer um estudo comparativo da participação da sociedade timorense nas eleições presidenciais de 2002 a 2012; 2) identificar os principais problemas que a sociedade timorense enfrenta na transição e consolidação democrática em curso em Timor Leste. Palavras-chave: Participação Política, Sociedade civil, Democracia, Partidos Políticos, Eleições Presidenciais.
This work inserts in the area of Social and Political Sciences. In this scientific area we approach the subject on "The Participation of Timorese Society in the Presidential Elections." It is a comparative study on the Presidential Elections that had occurred in Timor-Leste from 2002 to 2012. The research aimed to establish the participation’s levels and types of Timorese society in that election, as a people and as a nation, according to the concept of sovereign state defended by John Locke. This work has as main goal, firstly, to improve our understanding towards the responsibility of Timorese citizens in the political consolidation of the democratic state, and on the other hand, an attempt to meet civic and political reality that guides the Timorese society. The specific objectives of this study are: (1) to make a comparative study on the participation of the Timorese society in the presidential elections from 2002 to 2012; (2) to identify the main problems that Timorese society faces in implementing democratic consolidation that took place in Timor-Leste.
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Caicedo, Andrea. « The 2012 Presidential Election Gender Gap ». Thesis, The University of Arizona, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/578550.
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The gender gap in presidential elections has been an important part of American politics for the past decades. This phenomenon in politics refers to the differences of men and women in party identification and voting behavior. This paper explains the origins of the gender gap dating back to the 1980s. It explains the patterns and analyzes the most significant issues in each presidential election. Finally, it analyzes the gender gap in the 2012 presidential election. It focuses on the issues that had the biggest difference and it explains why some issues are more susceptible to having a greater gender gap.
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Beaulieu, Emily Ann. « Protesting the contest election boycotts around the world, 1990-2002 / ». Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2006. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3212022.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2006.Title from first page of PDF file (viewed July 11, 2006). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 217-226).
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Favila, Alcalá Mariana. « New Insults on Facebook during the 2012 Mexican Presidential Elections ». Thesis, Universidad de las Américas Puebla, 2013. http://catarina.udlap.mx/u_dl_a/tales/documentos/lio/favila_a_m/.
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The present study is the first in its nature as it aimed at 1) identifying which were the most common politically-related insults used on Facebook before, during, and after the 2012 Mexican presidential election, 2) resolving the morphological processes by which such insults came about, and 3) determining the meaning and the pragmatic implications of such insults. The latter was done by means of two corpora created with the comments made by Facebook users on pictures posted in four Facebook pages that were openly against the two most controversial presidential candidates: Enrique Peña Nieto (EPN) and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). A total of 620 pictures were gathered throughout nearly a year, starting on January 7th and ending on December 1st, 2012. Although the Facebook pages against Peña Nieto posted the largest amount of pictures, the linguistic data obtained from them was scarce. In contrast, the comments obtained from the anti-AMLO pages offered a lot more types to be morphologically analyzed. It was concluded that the word-formation processes that gave way to the insults found were blending, compounding, acronym, and borrowing.
Keywords: morphology, pragmatics, political discourse, Mexican politics, 2012 presidential elections, Facebook, online social networks, insults.
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Khamidova, Aziza. « Mexico after general elections 2012 : Successful reforms or wishful thinking ? » Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-198207.
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The central topic of analysis in the master thesis is the general elections in Mexico in 2012 and their influence on the ongoing reform process in the country. The emphasis is put on the effect of conducted reforms and the extent to which they are influenced by the separation of powers in the Mexican presidential system, the Congress itself, the power of the presidents the role of the political parties, the nature of the presidential systems in general, as well as the civil society i.e. the public. There has been a certain amount of criticism that the new, PRI political strategy is simply a portrait of the so called "dinosaur elite" and it is not working towards completing the needs of the people. The aim of the master thesis therefore is firstly to define the nature of the presidential systems, to elaborate any potential deadlocks and limitations that the system might impose in the reform process, and afterwards to represent the extent to which different factors influence the actual reform process in Mexico lead by the President Nieto. The research question aims to respond whether the current structural reforms are well maintained in terms of their effectiveness and in terms of gaining support from the remaining parties in the Congress, or the situation needs to be approved from another angle. In other words, it is crucial to show to what extent the newly elected political leadership in Mexico, as of 2012, had so far reformed the country in regard of strengthening the democracy, improving the economic situation by reducing the growing income inequality amongst the people, as well as working on the security improvement of the country.
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Nikolic, Louise. « Registration of foreign residents for municipal elections :A mixed-methods study of the 2012 municipal elections in Belgium ». Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/259551.
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This dissertation focuses on the issue of registration of foreign residents (EU and non-EU) for the 2012 local elections in Belgium. The goal of this study is twofold. First, it aims at identifying and analyzing the factors explaining variations in foreigners’ registration between municipalities. The second objective is to understand how and why these explanatory factors have an impact on their decision to register. A mixed-methods approach is used to provide a broad and comprehensive picture of the registration of foreign citizens. It is assumed that foreigners’ registration rates for municipal elections vary according to the formal and discursive political opportunities at the local level. I also argue that the political opportunities approach needs to be combined with other predictors that are specific to migrant groups. The quantitative results indicate that the presence of a left-wing mayor in the municipality displays a strong positive and significant association with both EU and non-EU registration. Moreover, the results provide a strong support for the hypothesis relating to outreach actions: municipalities organizing many foreign voter outreach actions are more likely to achieve high foreigners’ registration rates than municipalities that organize no action or only a limited number. In addition, the findings show that foreigners’ registration does not depend only on political opportunities, but also on specific characteristics of foreigners relating to their migration process. First, the residential instability has a negative impact on both EU and non-EU registration. Second, municipalities with a high percentage of non-EU residents with the nationality of a country where one of the languages spoken is French or Dutch are slightly more likely to achieve high registration of non-EU nationals. It has been shown that political context matters for foreigners’ registration, but several questions emerge about the way it does matter. Based on the statistical results, three typical and three deviant municipalities were selected to disentangle the causal mechanisms between the presence of a left-wing mayor and foreigners’ registration on the one hand, and between the organization of outreach actions and foreigners’ registration on the other hand. The qualitative part of this study examines the theoretically widely supported, but empirically understudied assumption that citizens perceive opportunities in their socio-political context, and that their perception influence whether or not they will register on electoral lists. It emphasizes the interactions between actors and the political context and it takes into account causal mechanisms that link macro-level political opportunities and micro-level electoral participation. The case studies demonstrate that the decision to register does not always depend directly on perceived favorable political context but that more subtle and indirect elements such as the perception of the municipal climate as welcoming and the feeling of integration, influence greatly registration and should therefore receive more attention.Doctorat en Sciences politiques et sociales
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
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Merge, Steven. « Cable News Coverage of the 2012 Presidential Election ». Thesis, University of Oregon, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1794/13449.
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Tzeng, Wei Feng. « Elections and Authoritarian Rule : Causes and Consequences of Adoption of Grassroots Elections in China ». Thesis, University of North Texas, 2017. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1011791/.
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This dissertation investigates the relationship between elections and authoritarian rule with a focus on the case of China's adoption of elections at the grassroots level. In this dissertation, I look at the incentives facing Chinese local governments in choosing between holding competitive elections or state-controlled elections, and how the selection of electoral rules shapes the public's preferences over political institutions and influences the citizens' political behaviors, especially voting in elections and participation in contentious activities. The overarching theme in this dissertation proposes that the sources and consequences of Chinese local elections are conditioned on the state-owned resources and the governing costs. When the amount of state-owned resources to rule the local society is limited, the paucity of resources will incentivize authoritarian governments to liberalize grassroots elections to offset the governance costs. The various levels of election liberalization will lead to different consequences in the public's political behavior. An abundance of state-owned resources not only discourages rulers from sharing power with the local society, but also supplies the rulers with strong capacity to obtain loyalty from voters when elections are adopted. As a result, elections under authoritarian governments with an abundance of state-owned resources will see more loyalist voters than elections with authoritarian governments with fewer state-owned resources. In addition, the varieties of election practices will exert impacts on public opinion toward the authoritarian government: awareness of elections will enhance public trust in the government and decrease the public's intention to challenge the incumbents' authority while at the same time increasing the public's faith in the institutions, thereby encouraging the public to adopt official channels to air their grievances. The analysis of the village-level as well as individual-level survey data and cases lends empirical supports to the argument. First, I find that the governing costs—measured by the size of labor force—are significantly and positively associated with the likelihood that local officials allow the villagers to freely nominate candidates. Second, I find that party members are more likely to vote in rural elections than urban elections while urban elections attract citizens with higher levels of democratic consciousness. The rural-urban divide in voter type indicates that the possession of economic resources by rural grassroots governments helps mobilize rural loyalist voters to participate in village committee elections, whereas the lack of such resources by urban governments discourages regime loyalist but encourage democratic voters to turn out to vote in urban elections. Third, I find significant evidence that citizens who are aware of grassroots elections are less likely to engage in contentious activities such as protest, strikes or demonstrations. Yet, the awareness of elections also encourages citizens to more frequently adopt, shangfang (petition), a government-sponsored conflict resolution mechanism, than those who are not aware of such elections. The implications of these findings suggest that the capability of state in controlling resources is vital to the success or failure of elections in stabilizing authoritarian regimes. The findings also provide an assessment on the substantial influence of the rural and urban grassroots elections in China's subnational democratization.
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Lambe, Paul James. « Political dealignment in Britain : the local evidence 1959-1979 ». Thesis, University of Plymouth, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/2052.
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This thesis challenges the dominant view that municipal elections tell us practically nothing about the preferences and attitudes of the voter to local issues and events, that municipal elections are no more than national referendums. It suggests that the influence of socio-economic environment and political context and indeed structural factors have hitherto been underestimated. It argues that municipal politics and voting behaviour impact upon parliamentary electoral behaviour and outcomes and thereby the politics of place impinge upon the national electoral level. The thesis employs a multi-disciplinary approach that combines the qualitative research methods of the historian and the quantitative statistical analysis of the political scientist to unravel the interactions between the politics of place and voting behaviour in Britain between 1959 and 1979 at a time of dealignment at the parliamentary level and increased politicisation of elections at the municipal level. Patterns and trends in party support at parliamentary elections in four constituencies were analysed using quantitative methods and contrasted with patterns and trends in party support at municipal elections in coterminous electoral units. Significant variance between the two levels of electoral activity was evidenced. The research then employed qualitative methods and evidence from four case studies was presented that local contextual factors could account for much of the disparity between municipal and national patterns of party support in these locations. Quantitative research methods were resumed and the statistical techniques of multivariate regression and logistic regression employed to analyse socio-economic, political and structural variables in relation to party support at municipal and parliamentary elections in the case study areas. The findings of the quantitative analysis corroborated much of the qualitative findings and the conclusion reached that the influence of contextual factors upon party support at municipal elections has been underestimated Furthermore, that the interdisciplinary methodology employed is one that others in both political science and history may fruitfully follow to the advantage of both disciplines.
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Vernet, Laurène. « L'Europe à l'aune des élections présidentielles françaises, 1965-2012 ». Thesis, Sorbonne université, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018SORUL187.
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Alors que les citoyens français se montrent plutôt enclins à la communauté européenne, et que la France poursuit son intégration et sa coopération régionales, les candidats aux élections présidentielles parlent peu de l’Europe comme d’un véritable enjeu électoral. Cette thèse étudie la place de l’Europe comme enjeu, thème et sujet électoral dans les différentes structurations du débat médiatico-politiques. Au cœur des programmes, des allocutions et des débats des candidats de diverses familles politiques, elle démontre que l’Europe est un sujet glissant, souvent relégué à la dernière place des préoccupations électorales. Un sujet qui dérange le candidat et le citoyen car son traitement politique présuppose une définition stricte du rôle de la France dans l’Europe et de la finalité de l’Europe elle-même. Un sujet qui est aussi au cœur de clivages politiques flottants. A la croisée des notions de souveraineté, d’indépendance, de grandeur voire d’identité, les analyses de la place de l’Europe dans les élections présidentielles démontrent un espace de confrontation politique quasi vide, non investi par les candidats et les électorats. Cette étude démontre que cette immersion au cœur de la problématique de la place de l’intérêt national rend compte d’un processus de désidéologisation du thème européen latent et, au regard de l’écologie électorale aux référendums européens et aux élections présidentielles suivantes, d’un repli populiste en puissance dont le traitement politique du sujet européen n’est peut-être pas le dernier responsable. Quelle France souverainiste ou européiste s’exprime dans les élections présidentielles françaises de la Ve République, pour quelle Europe ?French citizen since the 1960s have seemed to be generally in favour of the idea of a European community, and later, the European Union. However, French politicians who have run for presidential elections did not feel the need to include Europe as an electoral topic in their campaigns. If in the 1990s, Europe did become a programmatic data, it was still not considered as a topic that could create political cleavages. This thesis studies the place of Europe as an electoral issue and as a programmatic data inside the political debates. Through the analysis of the electoral programmes, the campaign speeches, and the debates, this essay demonstrates that Europe was a delicate topic and a political space of confrontation that candidates have invested very little. Europe disturbed the candidates as well as the citizen because its political treatment presupposed a strict definition of France’s role in Europe and the purpose of Europe itself. At the crossroads of the notions of sovereignty, independence, grandeur and identity, this thesis analyzes the place of Europe in the national presidential elections. Our immersion in the heart of the issues of national interests reveals a process of desideologisation of the European theme. It also shows, in regard to the electoral ecology, that there was, during the following European referendums and presidential elections, a potential populist tendency which the political treatment of the European issue was maybe not the only culprit. Which of soverainist France or europeanist France expressed itself in the French presidential elections from the Ve republic, for which Europe?
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Mosier, Joshua. « E-mails, propaganda, and the 2012 presidential election : a content analysis ». Kansas State University, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/15633.
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Master of ScienceDepartment of Journalism & Mass Communications
Sam Mwangi
This study examines what function presidential candidate e-mail messages serve. Are messages being sent out most frequently as an acclaim, a defense, or an attack? Are these messages attempting to reach the undecided voter or mobilize the already-committed? Furthermore, are these messages getting into policy discussion? Taking into consideration the commonalities between presidential rhetoric and propaganda theory, a content analysis was conducted on 280 official campaign emails from the 2012 Romney and Obama Campaigns covering the span of September 16, 2012 to November 6, 2012. Specifically, this study investigates the prevalence of “acclaim” messages versus “attack” messages, compares messages dealing with character to those dealing with policy, codes messages as being either informational content, involvement and engagement, or mobilization, and analyzes the differences of messages sent by presidential candidates in 2012. In all, 82.6% of candidate e-mails were coded as an “acclaim” message, and the majority of candidate messages (59.1%) fell under “involvement and engagement”, meaning they requested an initial commitment be made by the recipient. Fifteen percent of messages were coded as being related to character, while policy messages made up 20% of all messages. Romney held an edge in overall number of “attack” messages sent out at 25%, compared to just 6.4% sent out by Obama. Results seem to suggest that persuasion of the undecided voter was not the purpose of presidential e-mail messages in the 2012 election.
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Musumeci, Maria D. « COVID-19 Threat Perceptions and Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election ». University of Dayton / OhioLINK, 2021. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=dayton1628025640916147.
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Fernandes, Monize Arquer 1988. « Voto, partidos e contexto : uma análise da volatilidade eleitoral nos municípios brasileiros entre 2000 e 2012 ». [s.n.], 2015. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/279724.
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Orientador: Oswaldo Martins Estanislau do AmaralDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T16:31:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Fernandes_MonizeArquer_M.pdf: 2086168 bytes, checksum: 26b3585953586bf012c68634f8b238c4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015
Resumo: O objetivo deste trabalho é demonstrar que o contexto local - seja ele sociodemográfico ou institucional - importa na decisão do voto. Assim, buscamos contribuir para a literatura sobre comportamento eleitoral e sobre sistema partidário. A partir de uma amostra representativa de todos os municípios brasileiros, analisamos a volatilidade eleitoral partidária e ideológica para o cargo de vereador nas eleições de 2000 a 2012. Dessa forma, colaboramos com estudos que dizem respeito tanto à organização e ao funcionamento do sistema partidário em nível local, como também àqueles que buscam compreender o que determina a decisão do eleitor, apresentando quais características contextuais são capazes de explicar sua alternância entre os diversos partidos. Os resultados comprovam a relevância das características contextuais para explicar a variação do voto
Abstract: The central aim of this research is to demonstrate that the context matters for the electoral choice. Using a sample of the Brazilian cities, we analyzed the electoral volatility of each political party and of the ideological groups of parties for city councilors in four municipal elections ¿ 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012. Our intention is to identify which variables (sociodemographic or institutional) explain vote change between two consecutive elections. In this way, we contribute to the literature about electoral behavior and about party systems. The results show that context is important to understand the dimensions of the electoral decision
Mestrado
Ciencia Politica
Mestra em Ciência Política
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Lewandowski, Andrew David. « Obama(TM)| Political branding and participation in the 2012 U.S. presidential election ». Thesis, Georgetown University, 2013. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=1536653.
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This study examines the relationship between political branding and political participation in the 2012 U.S. presidential election and argues for a consumer-oriented polity to reinvigorate what it means to participate in elections and democracy in the United States in the 21st century. Political branding is positioned at the nexus of political marketing, political consumerism, and political participation. A theoretical framework was developed employing political branding to research its effects on the election. A national survey of 1,398 American adults was conducted to measure political brand recognition, modes of participation, and attitudes toward candidates Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Findings show young people ages 18-34 participated at higher rates across new and social media modes than people age 35 and older. There is a statistically significant relationship of moderate strength between political brand recognition and political participation, suggesting that strong political branding may encourage participation. Findings also show the Obama brand was stronger than the Romney brand, exhibiting greater social, cultural, and emotional connotations reflected in material and immaterial brand markers and built through time that manifest as political brand equity. The study concludes political branding is a democratizing principle, making the political process more accessible and relevant to average citizens, especially young people.
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Dufief, Elise. « The politics of election monitoring : the case of Ethiopia and the European Union ». Paris, EHESS, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014EHES0103.
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Ce projet de recherche s'articule autour de la problématique suivante : comment peut-on expliquer les usages multiples et contradictoires du monitoring électoral ? A travers le prisme des relations entre acteurs internationaux et locaux, nous démontrons d'une part comment un régime dit « fort » tel que l'Ethiopie utilise le monitoring électoral pour maintenir une position de pouvoir dans le pays et vis à vis des acteurs internationaux. D'autre part, les dimensions politiques du monitoring électoral soulignent le rôle ambigu joué par les promoteurs européens de la démocratie, qui utilisent également cet instrument comme un outil de politique étrangère, leur permettant ainsi, sous couvert de neutralité, d'interférer dans la politique nationale éthiopienne et justifier ainsi leur intervention. Cependant, en ratifiant un processus électoral non compétitif, ces acteurs sont affaiblis au cours du processus et leur entreprise perd considérablement de sa crédibilité. Au final, le récepteur des observateurs joue alors avec les marges de manœuvre existantes, et manipule les intérêts et intentions plus ou moins cachées des acteurs externes. Il remet ainsi en cause l'ordre diplomatique préétabli et la hiérarchie que cet ordre politique sous-tend. En conséquence, le monitoring électoral devient une zone de conflit où les stratégies politiques s'affrontent. L'instrument censé ouvrir l'espace politique en Éthiopie contribue en fait à sa fermetureMy dissertation examines the construction of power relations in the international system, through the lens of international election monitoring and its politics. Focusing on the relationship between the European Union and Ethiopia, I argue that election monitoring reflects a complex hierarchy of power and serves contradicting purposes. In the hands of the monitors, it is an instrument of discipline, intended to monitor domestic behavior and enforce a standard of performance. The recipient of monitors, while accepting the general rule, finds interstices to manoeuvre within, playing with and against interests and agendas of external actors. Ultimately, the politics of election observing functions as an arena of struggle where power strategies are at stake. Power relations are eventually reversed when international actors are weakened, giving more space for the recipient country to pursue its own electoral strategies
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Gordon, Josef. « Comparative Geospatial Analysis of Twitter Sentiment Data during the 2008 and 2012 U.S. Presidential Elections ». Thesis, University of Oregon, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1794/13424.
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The goal of this thesis is to assess and characterize the representativeness of sampled data that is voluntarily submitted through social media. The case study vehicle used is Twitter data associated with the 2012 Presidential election, which were in turn compared to similarly collected 2008 Presidential election Twitter data in order to ascertain the representative statewide changes in the pro-Democrat bias of sentiment-derived Twitter data mentioning either of the Republican or Democrat Presidential candidates.
The results of the comparative analysis show that the MAE lessened by nearly half - from 13.1% in 2008 to 7.23% in 2012 - which would initially suggest a less biased sample. However, the increase in the strength of the positive correlation between tweets per county and population density actually suggests a much more geographically biased sample.
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Hlavacova, Zuzana. « The Electoral Geography of the Slovak Republic : A Comparison of the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Parliamentary Elections ». FIU Digital Commons, 2009. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/106.
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In what can rightly be said to be one of the most dramatic geopolitical shifts in modern times, the collapse of communist regimes in Central Europe and the former Soviet Union brought about dramatic changes in the entire region. As a consequence, wide ranging political, economic, and social transformations have occurred in almost all of these countries since 1989. The Slovak Republic, as a newly democratic country, went through the establishment of the electoral and party systems that are the central mechanisms to the formation of almost all modern democratic governments. The primary research purpose of this dissertation was to describe and explain regional variations in party support during Slovakia’s ten years of democratic transformation. A secondary purpose was to relate these spatial variations to the evolution of political parties in the post-independence period in light of the literature on transitional electoral systems. Research questions were analyzed using both aggregate and survey data. Specifically, the study utilized electoral data from 1994, 1998, and 2002 Slovak parliamentary elections and socio-economic data of the population within Slovak regions which were eventually correlated with the voting results by party in the 79 Slovak districts. The results of this study demonstrate that there is a tendency among voters in certain regions to provide continuous support to the same political parties/movements over time. In addition, the socio-economic characteristics of the Slovak population (gender, age, education, religion, nationality, unemployment, work force distribution, wages, urban-rural variable, and population density) in different regions tend to influence voting preferences in the parliamentary elections. Finally, there is an evident correlation between party preference and the party’s position on integration into European Union, as measured by perceived attitudes regarding the benefits of EU membership.
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Kangira, Jairos. « A study of the rhetoric of the 2002 presidential election campaign in Zimbabwe ». Doctoral thesis, University of Cape Town, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/18250.
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Includes bibliographical references.This study focuses on rhetorical discourse of the 2002 presidential election campaign in Zimbabwe. The thesis analyses the rhetoric used by the two major contenders of this controversial election - the incumbent president Robert Gabriel Mugabe, candidate of Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU PF) and the challenger Morgan Tsvangirai, candidate of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). The study first traces the origin of rhetoric, the art of persuasive communication, to ancient Greek and Roman traditions. Following Hanson (1997), the study treats Kenneth Burke's and Chaim Perelman's different rhetorical theories as complementary. The argument is that, although the two contemporary scholars offer different views on the nature and process of rhetoric, these views are two sides of the same coin as the ultimate goal is to convince people, to create a communion between the rhetor and the audience. The study shows that both parties used negative advertisements in the election campaign. This persuasive attack produced negative images of both candidates. The rhetoric induced political cynicism of the candidates in the minds of the voters. Mugabe used collective memory and nostalgia in four funeral speeches in order to persuade the voters to vote for him. As the chief interpreter of past events, he chose those events that presented him as the vanguard of the values of the liberation struggle. His rhetoric called on the voters to guard against forces of imperialism by voting him back to the presidency. Consistently, Mugabe centred his campaign rhetoric on the achievements of his government over 22 years since independence in 1980 and attacked his opponent as a sell-out, a puppet of Britain and the whites in the country. Mugabe's land rhetoric was popular with people in the rural and peri-urban areas whose lives depended on land. Tsvangirai's rhetoric focused on the need for a change of government. He attacked Mugabe and his government for mismanaging the affairs of the country, resulting in the economic and political meltdown in the country. Tsvangirai offered practical ways of delivering the country from its economic and political quagmire and end the suffering of the people. This study argues that Tsvangirai's rhetoric of change was so persuasive to voters that had the electoral process been free and fair, he could have easily won this election.
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Shaughnessy, Brittany Rose. « Masking the Second Amendment : Issue agenda building during the 2020 American presidential election ». Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/103776.
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This study content analyzed interest group and candidate tweets from the 2020 American presidential election to determine what issues and substantive attributes were most salient on interest group and candidate agendas during the "hot phase" of the campaign. Cross-lagged correlations were conducted during two time periods from Labor Day to Election Day 2020 to measure agenda building effects. These tests were conducted for Democratic nominee and eventual President Joe R. Biden, and Republican nominee and former President Donald J. Trump. These tests were also conducted for two issue-based interest groups: Everytown for Gun Safety and the National Rifle Association.
Findings indicate that Biden influenced Trump's campaign agenda, but Trump did not influence Biden's. The interest groups showed reciprocal influence with each other. Given the unprecedented nature of the 2020 election, the candidates were largely talking about the same issues. However, substantive attributes reveal the candidates' true issue agenda. This study offers methodological innovation by utilizing NVivo for content analysis.Master of Arts
This study examined tweets from 2020 presidential candidates Donald J. Trump and Joseph R. Biden, as well as the National Rifle Association, a gun rights advocacy organization, and Everytown for Gun Safety, a gun control advocacy organization. These tweets were examined from September 7 to November 3, 2020, from Labor Day until Election Day. For the presidential candidates, it was found that although candidates were talking the same general campaign issues, they were using different substantive attributes when speaking of them. The findings also revealed that Biden was successful at influencing Trump's Twitter focus during the examined time period. Tweets from advocacy organizations were tested for presence of gun-related issues. The advocacy organizations spoke about the same issues as the other, but neither group was successful at influencing what the other said. This study highlights the importance of digital political public relations.
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Mahayni, Basil Riad. « Evo Morales and the indigenous peoples in Bolivia an analysis of the 2002 and 2005 presidential elections / ». [Ames, Iowa : Iowa State University], 2007.
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Min, Byung-O. « Electoral change and voting behaviour of independent voters in South Korea, 1992-2002 : are independent voters rational in voting choice ? » Thesis, Online version, 2004. http://bibpurl.oclc.org/web/26005.
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Teixeira, Augusto César Santiago. « A Assembleia de Deus e a política aracajuana : análise da eleição de 2012 ». Pós-Graduação em Sociologia, 2014. https://ri.ufs.br/handle/riufs/6286.
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This paper examines the strategies used by electoral candidates linked to the Church Assembly of God, the Municipality of Aracaju, in the election of 2012. Interpretive effort that sought to understand how this evangelical denomination structured their election campaigns. Thus, analyzes the relationship between evangelical pastors and vote, while canvassers. Focuses attention on the members who are chosen for candidacy for alderman; strategies and voting within the Church; strategies and the work of the vote outside the Church. The choice of the Assembly of God Church is due to the fact that having a longer foray into the political arena in Aracaju, dating from the 1980s. And among the findings highlight the evangelical candidate as a reality in Aracaju, despite these meld a set of strategies with old electoral religious practices, such welfarism. One notes also the importance of the candidate being a pastor and use social media (radio, television and internet) in winning votes, or even holding meetings and home visits to get closer to the electorate. It is in this environment that the woman plays an important role in winning voters.O presente texto analisa as estratégias eleitorais utilizadas por candidatos ligados à Igreja Assembleia de Deus, à Câmara Municipal de Aracaju, no pleito de 2012. Esforço interpretativo que procurou compreender como os evangélicos desta denominação religiosa estruturaram suas campanhas eleitorais. Assim, analisa a relação entre pastores evangélicos e o voto, enquanto cabos eleitorais. Foca a atenção sobre os membros que são escolhidos para a candidatura a vereador; as estratégias e o voto dentro da Igreja; as estratégias e o trabalho do voto fora da Igreja. A escolha da Igreja Assembleia de Deus deve-se ao fato dessa ter uma incursão mais longa no campo político em Aracaju, datando da década de 1980. E, entre as conclusões destaca-se a candidatura evangélica como uma realidade em Aracaju, apesar destes mesclarem um conjunto de estratégias religiosas com velhas práticas eleitorais, a exemplo do assistencialismo. Nota-se também a importância do candidato ser pastor e utilizarem as mídias sociais (rádio, televisão e internet) na conquista de votos, ou ainda, a realização de reuniões e visitas domiciliares para a aproximação com o eleitorado. É nesse ambiente que a mulher assume um papel importante na conquista de eleitores.
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Komorová, Michaela. « Uplatňovanie politického marketingu počas parlamentných volieb na Slovensku ». Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-142262.
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The thesis analyses election campaigns of successful parties by Lees-Marshment model. According to five basic aspects - election research, political product, implementation of product, adjustment of product and communication - the work aims to prove or disprove the hypothesis, that more market oriented political party tends to gain more political profit. Furthermore, the thesis describes financing of political parties and several negative campaigns connected to chosen parliamentary election. Thanks to questionnaire market research the work aims to analyse the factors of influence on decision-making of the first-time voters.
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Buratti, Brenda. « Analysis of the Social Media of the Obama and Romney Campaigns in the 2012 Election ». Thesis, University of Oregon, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1794/18329.
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This study is a quantitative content analysis of the Facebook and Twitter communication of the Obama and Romney campaigns on seven dates within the 30 days prior to the 2012 presidential election. Specific rhetorical techniques are explored for similarities or differences in how these techniques have appeared in political communication in legacy media and how they are expressed in social media. Repetition, collective language, self-reference language and Benoit's functions of attack, acclaim and defend are examined. Additionally, the study identified what topics each candidate emphasized in their social media communication. Findings show that both candidates used repetition to reinforce key messages. The use of attacks, acclaims and defenses bore some similarities to uses in legacy media. However, the primary focuses by both candidates centered on motivating citizens to show support for the candidate and get out the vote. Few policy issues appeared in the communication of either candidate.2015-09-29
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Grove, DeeAnn. « An issue of "special opportunity" : the politicalization of education in presidential election campaigns, 1968-2012 ». Diss., University of Iowa, 2014. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/6585.
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This interdisciplinary study examines the issue of education in presidential election campaigns from 1968 through 2012. Historians of education have argued that the public's embrace of The National Commission on Excellence in Education report A Nation at Risk: The Imperative for Educational Reform (ANAR), in 1983 forced education onto the national agenda because political elites had to respond to voters' concerns about educational quality. Yet, historians of education have largely overlooked presidential election campaigns in their analysis of how education became a prominent political issue. In contrast, political scientists have focused a great deal on presidential election campaigns in seeking to understand the interaction between political elites and voters but have given little attention to the issue of education. This study integrates these two lines of inquiry to provide a better understanding of how education became a top-tier political issue and to better reveal the interactions between political elites and voters in that process.
This study makes use of source materials that have received little scholarly examination. Internal campaign strategy documents reveal how political elites understood public opinion about education and how they sought to make use of that understanding to win elections. These underutilized sources reveal that historians have overemphasized the role of ANAR in the rise of education on the national political agenda.
Long before education appeared in public opinion data as a top voter concern, strategists from both major political parties already wanted to push education onto the national political agenda. Yet, candidates were largely constrained from using education during the 1970s because they wanted to avoid engaging the controversial issue of de facto school desegregation. White voters were inconsistent on the issue: they claimed to support desegregation but took actions indicating they actually opposed desegregation. This made it difficult to craft an effective education message. When forced to discuss school desegregation, candidates of both parties employed a "quality education for all students" frame that deracialized the school desegregation debate and made education a safe issue to prime by the end of the decade.
Beginning in the 1980s, Republicans used education for two electoral ends. First, they sought to use the recent transformation of the National Education Association (NEA) into a labor union and its endorsement of Democratic candidates to convince voters that the Democratic Party was beholden to radical special interest groups. Republican candidates also increased their priming of education in an attempt to close the gender gap arguing that women voters had a particular concern for the issue of education.
Between 1990 and 2012, both parties wanted to use education to appeal to white voters. Republican candidates had long been committed to using education to soften their image. Now they began framing education as a civil rights issue in order to reassure white voters of their racial sensitivity. Meanwhile, Democratic candidates began framing education as an economic issue to reassure middle class white voters anxious about their children's future in the emerging global economy.
A primary element in these electoral strategies was the idea that education was a "special" political issue. The "special" status rested on political elites' perceptions of voters' strong personal commitment to education and their nonpartisan attitudes toward specific policy positions. The lack of partisan correlation presented challenges for both parties but also unique opportunities to address campaign concerns related to a candidate's image, targeted voting blocs, and possible attacks on their opponents. The rise of the issue of education on the national agenda was often less about voters' concerns with educational quality and more about campaign strategy.
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Luca, Davide. « Essays on the political economy of development : elections, public investment and regional economic growth in post-2002 Turkey ». Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2015. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/3237/.
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Much academic debate in the tradition of economic geography has focused on how to design successful strategies to trigger local and regional development. How a more effective economic policy to tackle regional imbalances and inequalities should be developed remains hotly discussed. Too frequently, however, the effective delivery and implementation of policies across all cities and regions fail not simply because of wrong policy tools. Often, one of the challenges is, also, to sort out the institutional process so that incentives to achieve effectiveness arise among politicians and bureaucrats. This thesis specifically focuses on pork-barrelling and distributive politics, that is, how politicians selectively target cities and regions with more or less governmental goods to reinforce their electoral advantage. While a significant number of contributions have been made to this field of enquiry, numerous gaps remain in understanding the implications of distributive politics on regional economic development policymaking and performance. The dissertation critically examines four different aspects and effects of distributive politics, drawing from the case of post-2002 Turkey. In spite of a significant burgeoning of this line of research across the world, questions about the extent to which ‘tactical allocative games’ prevail over technical policymaking criteria are frequently left unanswered. The first theme concerns the extent to which electoral factors prevail over technical considerations in the allocation of public investment by the central state to Turkey’s provinces. The evidence suggests that, while the government has allocated spending to reward its core constituencies, socioeconomic factors nonetheless remain the most relevant predictors of investment. Relatedly, almost no research has so far explored whether pork-barrelling has any economic consequences on regional economies. The second theme explores whether votes for the incumbent party can ‘buy’ preferential policy treatment and regional economic growth. The results show how, after addressing potential endogeneity, economic performance is almost entirely explained by ‘standard’ drivers, primarily human capital endowment. Third, the literature on distributive politics has frequently been legislature centric, in the sense that it has not paid adequate attention to the role played by bureaucratic agencies. The third paper explores whether the institutional characteristics of the agency in charge of the project cycle condition the attainment of publicly-oriented goals. Results point towards the argument that, to enhance policy effectiveness, bureaucracies must be not only capable an autonomous, but also accountable. Finally, the literature still provides unclear evidence on whether shifts from highly competitive electoral environments towards electoral one-party hegemony may lead to higher – or to lower – levels of pork-barrelling. The fourth theme therefore explores whether the constant surge of power enjoyed by Turkey’s AK Party has determined any change in the way public investment is allocated for tactical redistribution. Findings unexpectedly uncover decreasing levels of ‘punishment’ against opponents’ strongholds. Such reduction, however, is accompanied by increasing populist spending throughout the country. Overall, by providing novel evidence on the links between elections, public investment, and regional economic growth in post-2002 Turkey, the thesis contributes to advancing the understaning of the political economy of local and regional development.
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Ashenafi, Abate. « The Framing of the 2005 Ethiopian National Election by Privately Owned Print Media Outlets in Ethiopia ». Thesis, Mittuniversitetet, Avdelningen för medie- och kommunikationsvetenskap, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-20223.
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Dyachenko, Nina. « Russia’s ‘Sovereign Democracy’ : A Case Study of the Public Protests in Connection with Parliamentary and Presidential Elections 2011-2012 ». Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Historiska institutionen, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-233896.
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Ambrózyová, Miroslava. « Nové parlamentné politické strany na Slovensku po voľbách v roku 2010 a 2012 ». Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-125143.
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The Slovak political party system was shaken by new political parties, that emerged just recently and strongly influenced the political scene. The aim of the paper was to find out, what was the key of success of the the new political parties, which made it to the parliament in the parliamentary elections in June 2010 and in march 2012. In order to reach this goal I research the circumstances which lead to the establishment of these parties, their election program, the governmental period, the campaign and the role of the party leader. The paper is divided into four chapters, out of which the chapter one is dedicated to the teoretical background and definitions, the second chapter is putting light on the Slovak party and election system, the chapter three and four are the analytical core of the paper, in which I analyze the the political parties SaS, Most-Híd and OĽaNO in the above mentioned areas. I conclude the analytical part by the anlysis of the election results do the Slovak parliament in year 2010 and the preliminary election in the year 2012.
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Heintze, Roland. « Die Rolle des Internets bei der Wahlkampagnenführung der Parteien in den Bundestagswahlkämpfen 2002 und 2005 ». Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Philosophische Fakultät III, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/16800.
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Die vorliegende Arbeit stellt das jüngste Element der Wahlkampfkommu¬nikation in den Mittelpunkt: das Internet. In den USA spielte das sogenannte E-Campaigning bei den Präsidentschaftswahlen erstmals im Jahr 2000 eine wichtige Rolle. Bereits 2002 fasste es auch in Deutschland bei Bundestags¬wahlen zum ersten Mal Fuß. Um sich diesem Untersuchungsgegenstand der politi¬schen Kommunikation systematisch zu nähern, wird anhand des US-amerikanischen Vorbilds ein eigener Ansatz – eine sogenannte Nullmessung – entwickelt. Diese wurde dann anlässlich des Bundestagswahlkampfes 2002 anhand der Internet-Wahlkampfaktivitäten der im Bundestag vertretenen Parteien durchgeführt und im Wahlkampf 2005 ergänzt. Vergleicht man die Untersuchungsergebnisse mit den Zielen, die damals von den Parteien nach eigenen Angaben mit ihren Onlinekampagnen verfolgt wurden, zeigt sich, dass die Internetauftritte den öffentlich von den Kampagnenmanagern artikulierten Ansprüchen, nicht gerecht wurden. Die Chance, die für den Wahlsieg wichtige Gruppe der Wechselwähler gezielt anzusprechen, wurde beispielsweise nicht hinreichend genutzt. Die Analyse zeigt, dass das aus den Betrachtungen der US-amerikanischen Kampagnen bekannte Online-Instrumentarium häufig nur kopiert und dann auch nicht zielgerichtet und konsequent genug eingesetzt wurde. An den Internetkampagnen der deutschen Parteien ist ebenfalls zu erkennen, dass sie bei der Übernahme US-amerikanischer Internetformate keine Rücksicht auf die unterschiedlichen gesellschaftlichen Randbedingungen beider Länder genommen haben, die sich beispielsweise bei der Bereitschaft zur Unterstützung politischer Kampagnen aus¬wirken. Das Internet ist als eigenständiges Kampagneninstrument in den Dimensionen „Darstellung“, „Aktivierung“ und „Steuerung“ nicht erkennbar. Die Arbeit zeigt auf, dass im Internet gerade für eine spezifisch deutsche Wahlkampfführung noch ein erhebliches strategisches Potenzial liegt, welches 2002 und 2005 nicht genutzt wurde.This paper focuses on the latest element in electronic election campaign communication: the Internet. In the USA, e-campaigning first played a major role during presidential elections in the year 2000. By 2002 it had already begun to gain ground at Germany’s federal elections. In order to examine this aspect of political communication systematically, a dedicated approach known as baseline measurement was developed on the basis of the US American example. It was then applied to the Internet election campaign activities of the parties represented in Germany’s parliament during the 2002 federal election campaign, and then supplemented to include the 2005 campaign. If we compare the results of the study with the objectives which the parties said they were pursuing in their online campaigns, we see that those online campaigns did not fulfil the aspirations articulated publicly by campaign managers. For example, the opportunity to address swing voters, who are crucial to election victory, was inadequately utilised. Analysis reveals that the online instruments familiar to observers of US American campaigns were often simply copied and then not applied consistently enough or with sufficient attention to aims. The Internet campaigns run by German parties also indicated that when adopting US American Internet formats, they ignored the social differences between the two countries that affect things like people’s willingness to support political campaigns. The Internet was not recognisable as an independent campaign instrument used in the dimensions of Portrayal, Activation or Control. This paper shows that the Internet still harbours considerable strategic potential for specifically German election campaign management – potential which was not utilised in 2002 or 2005.
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Khan, Javed. « The effects of technology, demographic and economic factors on voter error : an analysis of the 2002 and 2006 Florida gubernatorial elections ». Honors in the Major Thesis, University of Central Florida, 2008. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETH/id/1098.
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This item is only available in print in the UCF Libraries. If this is your Honors Thesis, you can help us make it available online for use by researchers around the world by following the instructions on the distribution consent form at http://library.ucf.edu/Systems/DigitalInitiatives/DigitalCollections/InternetDistributionConsentAgreementForm.pdf You may also contact the project coordinator, Kerri Bottorff, at kerri.bottorff@ucf.edu for more information.Bachelors
Sciences
Political Science
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Conceição, Bruno da Silva. « Competição eleitoral no Brasil : análise da influência da fórmula eleitoral nas disputas majoritárias municipais (2008-2012) ». reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/103881.
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Neste estudo investigamos o efeito da fórmula eleitoral na competição municipal brasileira, mais precisamente, nas eleições para o cargo de Prefeito em 2008 e 2012. Utilizamos o conceito de competição eleitoral que corresponde ao número de candidatos efetivos concorrendo em cada pleito. Para medir isso, recorremos ao número de candidatos efetivos (NCE), índice que estabelece o número real de candidaturas que tem peso em uma disputa eleitoral. Nosso questionamento norteador é saber se haveria diferenciação na competição política nas cidades com turno único que utilizam a fórmula de Plurality (Maioria simples), comparada com aquelas cidades que possuem a possibilidade de segundo turno que utilizam a fórmula de Majority Runoff (maioria absoluta)? Nosso objetivo é testar as Leis de Duverger que indicam que quando é utilizada a fórmula de Plurality tendemos para bicandidaturas, enquanto ao utilizarmos a fórmula de Majority Runoff tendemos para multicandidaturas na disputa majoritária. Essa tarefa será realizada pela análise comparada das competições municipais, em todas as cidades brasileiras, através dos dados provenientes do Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) que mantém os resultados das eleições gerais no país.We investigated the effect of the electoral formula in the Brazilian city, more precisely, in the elections for the office of Mayor in 2008 and 2012. We use the concept of electoral competition that corresponds to the number of effective candidates competing in each election. To measure this, we use the number of effective candidates (NCE), an index that establishes the actual number of applications that have weight in an electoral contest. Our guiding question is whether there would be differentiation on competition policy in cities with a single round using the formula Plurality (simple majority), compared with those cities that have the possibility of runoff using the formula Majority Runoff (absolute majority)? Our goal is to test the Laws of Duverger indicate that when using the formula Plurality tend to bicandidaturas while when we use the formula Majority Runoff tend to multicandidaturas in majority contention. This task is performed by the comparative analysis of municipal competitions in all Brazilian cities, using data from the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) that holds the results of the general elections in the country.
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Jaitner, Margarita. « Exercising Power in Social Media : A Study of Hard and Soft Power in the Context of Russian Elections 2011--‐2012 ». Thesis, Försvarshögskolan, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:fhs:diva-2893.
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Stewart, Joshua. « The Pre-Emptive Election : How the Mass Media Determine Winners and Losers in Presidential Primaries, 1988-2012 ». Master's thesis, University of Central Florida, 2014. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/6364.
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The function of the mass media in the democratic process is crucial to an informed public and vital to a democratic system. One primary role of the media is that of gatekeeper between political candidates and the public. The influence the media has on the electorate is heightened during the primary process of presidential elections and even more so in the pre-primary season when a large majority of potential voters have yet to form opinions of candidates. The effects of the media in the pre-primary season of politics play out in significant relationships where media coverage results in measurable increases in campaign contributions to the candidates included in this research, while the tone of content has no measurable influence. Although models that tested the ability to predict success in primaries failed to reach statistically significant levels, the raw data show high correlations between media coverage and candidate success.M.A.
Masters
Political Science
Sciences
Political Science; American & Comparative Politics Track
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Yu, Shu-Chen, et 杜淑貞. « Studies on the Election Factors of the Voters Comparison between Kaohsiung Mayor Elections in 2002 and 2006 ». Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/x44sdb.
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碩士國立中山大學
政治學研究所
96
Election is the fundamental system to maintain one’s political leadership a democratic country.Election will decide the development of political system and fulfill the spirit of democracy.This is a study about Kaohsiung City mayor voter votes factor of the choice in the 2002 and 2006 Election. The results of the research are as follows:-- 1. In 2002, there are three causes that make a voter to change his decision in choosing a candidate. They are the age of a voter, the education level of the voter, and his personal racial group in the society. These three causes influence a voter’s recognition of another racial group in the society, his stand on the problem of Taiwan being united or divided from one China, his point of view on how much support a candidate will get from his party and other parties, a voter’s evaluation of a candidate’s behavior and conduct. We found that the difference between a voter and another voter shows very distinct or extremely distinct in making a decision.In 2006, there are two causes that make a voter to change his mind in choosing a candidate. They are the education level of the voter, and his personal racial group in the society. These two causes influence a voter’s recognition of another racial group, his stand on the problem of Taiwan being united or divided from China, his point of view on how much support a candidate will get from his party and other parties, a voter’s evaluation of a candidate’s behavior and conduct. We found that the difference between voters and voters showed very distinct different or extremely distinct different in making a decision.Briefly speaking, a voter’s individual personality and his living social background, are the reasons that really related to his stand on the problem of Taiwan being separated from China or not. And we found that a voter’s personality related to his stand point on the problem of Taiwan being separated or not from one China, apparently influence a voter’s decision more in the election of 2002 than in that of 2006. 2. Both in the study of the election in 2002 and 2006, we found it made no difference in making a choice of a candidate if the voter is female or male. The result does not achieve the standard of difference level(P＞00.5). . Besides the voters’ age related to the choice of a candidate appeared “rather difference”, the voters’ personal education level, their racial group, and their income, with their individual social background were the reasons that influenced a voter’s decision when making a choice of a candidate. These reasons related to a voter’s decision “appear apparently different and extremely different.” 3. In the research of both the election in 2002 and in 2006, except that people’s evaluation of Huang Tian-Shang related to the voters’ decision of making a choice, did not apparently achieve the standard of difference level (P＞00.5), that is, except that the variety factors related to the voters’ decision , did not appear apparently difference level , other variety factors related to the voters’ decision in making a choice, “apparently appeared difference level .”
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Sinclair, John Andrew. « Of Primary Importance : American Primary Elections 1945-2012 ». Thesis, 2013. https://thesis.library.caltech.edu/7756/1/Dissertation_Sinclair_JAndrew_finalapproved052413.pdf.
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American non-presidential primary elections remain an understudied, but very important, part of our political process. In this study, I examine the state of the political science literature and provide two main contributions. First, I describe in detail all of the primary election laws used across the United States from 1945 to 2012 and analyze the consequences of using one kind of law over another. I find that, contrary to expectations, closed primary rules may result in more competitive primary elections than open primaries; furthermore, states with closed primary rules appear to get more moderate representation on average in the U.S. Senate. Due to changing legal standards, more states may be more likely to adopt in the future a "top-two" primary system which California used for the first time in 2012. I also analyze the first implementation of the "top-two." Proponents of the new law suggested that it would help elect more pragmatic legislators. I find, though a unique survey of California voters, that they sometimes achieved their goal.
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KUMAR, BHANU. « PREDICTION OF USA ELECTIONS 2020 USING SENTIMENT ANALYSIS ». Thesis, 2021. http://dspace.dtu.ac.in:8080/jspui/handle/repository/19000.
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Machine Learning (ML) is expanding its applications in our life as the amount of data stored on servers is increasing daily. With ample of provided applications to ease our workload and make us more efficient. exit polls for elections although quite accurate cannot be completely relied upon. This can arise due to pressure from political leaders, peers; people who don't want to share their views etc. There have been instances in past where the results of elections were completely contradictory to predictions based on exit polls. With social media, people have become more vocal about their views and perspectives with the privacy and security over internet. With more people using social media to express their views, we can create several detailed and structured datasets according to our needs. this decreases time as compared to interviewing one person at a time, we can get data of millions promptly. this data can be classified on the basis of region, age, gender, etc. Using ML algorithms on these datasets we can predict the sentiment of these people and can get an accurate prediction for the elections.We'll be performing sentiment analysis on one such dataset which consists of tweets extracted from Twitter. This report will include using seven algorithms: Dictionary based, Naive Bays, Support Vector Machine, Linear Regression, Logistic Regression and Bayesian network and Bayesian network and compare the results of these Algorithms along with their accuracies.
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MARCHALOVÁ, Miroslava. « Krajské volby 2012 v Jihočeském kraji ». Master's thesis, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-174195.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The topic of this thesis is the regional elections 2012 on example of South Bohemia region. In the theoretical part were described the regional administrative bodies and principles of regional elections. The practical part dealt with the analyses of the elections results and application of features of the second-order elections, which were described by Karlheinz Reif and Hermann Schmitt in the 70s years of the last century. In the theses was verified, that the government parties in the second order elections lose. These parties reached a minimum at mid-term of the legislative period and in this period lost a lot of their popularity. The most important aspect of second-order elections is that there is less at stake. This is the reason why the level of participation was lower in this type of elections. The last part of thesis deals with Theory of political coalitions. In the regional elections 2012 was established the minimal winning coalition, which included two left-wing political parties.
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Brox, Brian Joseph Shaw Daron R. « Candidates, parties, and campaign effects in congressional elections, 1992-2002 ». 2005. http://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/bitstream/handle/2152/1518/broxb44134.pdf.
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Brox, Brian Joseph. « Candidates, parties, and campaign effects in congressional elections, 1992-2002 ». Thesis, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/2152/1518.
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劉元立. « The research of 2012 R.O.C Presidential election advertisment ». Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/ba626k.
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Hui-HuanLin et 林彙桓. « An Empirical Study on the Election Bull Run in Taiwan’s Stock Market : 2012 Presidential Election ». Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/3b3zaa.
Texte intégralRésumé :
碩士國立成功大學
經營管理碩士學位學程(AMBA)
101
The fifth direct presidential election for Taiwan was held on 14 January 2012. Due to the historical background of Taiwan which was under the influence externally by the United States and the People’s Republic of China, and internally by the split view on sovereignty issue, people in Taiwan have become very sensitive to major political events. With no exception, Taiwan’s stock market had been subject to the repercussions of presidential elections. In 2012, a number of the well known entrepreneurs came forward to reveal their preference for the candidates and their proclaimed policies. This study aims to evaluate the impact of pre-election announcement in the stock market if the election outcome turns to be expected. This study employs Event-Study approach supplemented by statistical testing to examine the existence of the election bull run after the 2012 Taiwan presidential election. Its major difference from other previous studies lies in the consideration of political position announcement. Further, this study applies quantitative analysis to measure the announcement impact on the election bull run. To achieve this purpose, the research begins with an examination of the different stock performances between companies with and those without political announcement, which is followed by an analysis of the impact of announcement on the performance of selected stocks. The empirical results are summarized in three parts: (1) After the 2012 presidential election, all publicly traded companies including those which did not reveal political preference enjoyed an election bull run. (2)The cumulative average abnormal returns are significantly different between the companies with political announcement and those without it. Moreover, the former’s cumulative average abnormal returns are less than the latter’s. The difference only occurred during a longer examination period. (3)Pre-election announcement has significantly caused a negative impact on the cumulative average abnormal returns over shorter time period for those companies that had made announcement. The announcement effect that was quantified by the amount of relevant news had not show significant influence on the cumulative average abnormal returns.
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Lo, I.-Ching, et 羅宜敬. « Internet Political Marketing Strategy of 2012 Taiwan Presidential Election ». Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/20608155431833253363.
Texte intégralRésumé :
碩士世新大學
行政管理學研究所(含博、碩專班)
100
Commercialization not only changes the relationship between human beings and material goods, but also changes the ways of election. Besides, Internet and Web 2.0 social networking sites are well-developed in recent years. These phenomena make political candidates and their campaign teams inevitable considering breaking their traditional thoughts, and planning efficacious strategies of internet political marketing. These strategies will attract a lot of attention of web users, and help candidates win the election. This study takes three campaign teams as research subjects. The theoretical basis are the theories of political marketing and IMC. It aims to examine the strategies these teams use on Internet political marketing. Moreover, this study examines whether these strategies consist with the five characters of IMC. The findings show that Soong’s team did not use aggressive strategies because of limited resources. However, Ma’s and Tsai’s teams both were aware of the trends of Internet marketing and concerned the using habits of web users. The strategies of Ma’s and Tsai’s were different mainly because of the role of candidates--incumbent or challenger. Finally, the unique abilities of interactive and immediate respons of Web 2.0 social networking sites are considered very helpful for election.
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Lin, Chao-Yang, et 林昭揚. « A Study of Election Loser’s Political Attitudes and Behavior：A Case Study of Taiwan 2012 Presidential Election ». Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/ss9t9b.
Texte intégralRésumé :
碩士淡江大學
公共行政學系公共政策碩士班
101
Since the 1980s, the political system in Taiwan has gradually transformed from authoritarian to democracy. The key to democracy is election. Election not only provides a fair competition for candidates but also gives the basic right of political participation to the public. However, the elections will inevitably produce election losers. Some scholars argue that if the losers disagree with the election’s results, they might be a serious threat to the survival of democratic institutions. Therefore, the discussion of the political consequences of the election loser is an important issue in the academic and practice fields. This study suggests that the presidential election in 2012 in Taiwan is an appropriate case for discussion. According to the past literature, election losers tend to question the fairness of the election and even the mode of operation for the majority rule. In addition, based on dissatisfaction with the incumbent government, the losers will have more political participation behaviors. The results demonstrate that, defeat is really affecting people''s political attitudes and behaviors. Literature mentioned that losers’ political attitudes and behaviors will be significantly differences with other voters. This argument agrees with the 2012 presidential election. In addition, the study also finds that "tyranny of majority" will affect people''s political attitudes and behaviors.
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Tsai, Yung-Chih, et 蔡永志. « 2012 presidential election KMT and DPP''s China policy dvocates impact on election results ». Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/19519253488578651624.
Texte intégralRésumé :
碩士淡江大學
中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班
102
In the 2012 presidential election, the KMT candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, who was seeking re-election and the DPP candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, were the competitors, and that the general public named the election “Showdown of Two Ings”. DPP was originally seeking to be the ruling party for the third time in history but unfortunately it failed. Incumbent president Ma won the election against the DPP candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, by close to 800,000 votes, or 6%. China policy is unique in that it not only involves policy research but also the positioning of the country in terms of unification or independence, so that it is an important indicator reflecting ideologies of political parties. Affected by a variety of historical factors, main political parties all take distinctive stances in the unification-independence issue which reflects the handling of China policy. Also, with the changes in time, social environment and the switch of ruling party, the political stance of every party also changes, making China policy a hot topic during elections. In the 2012 presidential election, Tsai Ing-wen proposed the so-called “Taiwan Consensus” as the core philosophy for her China policy, distinguishing it from “1992 Consensus” offered by KMT. Before the election, everyone assumed a small gap of votes for the two candidates, even went as far as predicting Tsai Ing-wen would win the election. However, she lost by close to 800,000 votes. The key factor in the DDP’s defeat in the presidential election was widely perceived as that DDP never offered a concrete cross-strait policy. After losing the presidential election, DDP again faces the transformation of cross-strait policy. If DPP does not offer a cross-strait policy better than “1992 Consensus” before the 2016 election, it very likely will repeat the 2012 “Taiwan Consensus” mistake. Therefore, this study attempts to explore the contributing factors to earning voters’ recognition and winning the election in terms of China policy offered by KMT candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, and DPP candidate, Tsai Ing-wen.
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Tian-HongLi et 李添弘. « The Internet Campaign Strategies of the 2012 Taiwan Presidential Election ». Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/59173167767598608087.
Texte intégralRésumé :
碩士國立成功大學
政治經濟學研究所
101
The democratization in Taiwan has rooted since the directed presidential elections in 1996. After the peacefully political trasistion in the 2012 presidential election, it had set a new milestone in the chronicle of democratization. With the help of the new communication technology, the media tools of campaign have been changing a lot, such as the Internet. The Internet has been used by the candidates in Taiwan since 1996. Because of the influence of YouTube, the video-sharing website, becomes more and more powerful. The campaign advertising has been shared on YouTube by political consultants and the political campaign staffs. This study focuses on the campaign advertising through YouTube. By analyzing the contents of campaign advertising, this study tries to categorize Ads and demonstrate the differences between them. This study applies the methodologies of the case study and the in-depth interviews to analyze the different Ads from different candidates and the political campaign team. Firstly, as the results shown, the candidates prefer more positive Ads than negative ones in the presidential election of 2012. Secondly, the sharing of the campaign Ads is not only one-side communication but also the interactive process. Thirdly, the campaign advertising pushs political parties to improve their softwares and hardwares equipments to improve the Internet campaign. Fourthly, the researches on the Internet campaign advertising is more and more important.
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Yi-ShiuanChen et 陳婷怡. « A Bayesian Prediction Model for the Taiwan 2012 Presidential Election ». Thesis, 2015. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/48930565622860771408.
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