Thèses sur le sujet « Economic and Monetary Union – European Union countries »

This paper considers two major issues in the evolution of the European Union, the Single Market and the Single Currency. The first chapter deals with the projected effects of the 1992 Programme, and the second chapter deals with the collapse of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System and examines the prospects for European Monetary Union given this collapse. The third chapter revolves around the concept of Central Banking under Monetary Union and focuses on the European Monetary Institute and the European System of Central Banks. Chapter four presents data regarding the progress of the European Union towards the target of the Single Currency, as well as other macroeconomic indicators.

Cette thèse s’intéresse au défi que représente le rattrapage des niveaux de prix pour la stabilité macroéconomique des pays en transition d’Europe centrale et orientale, dans la perspective de leur future participation à la zone euro. A cet égard, une modélisation du taux de change réel d’équilibre suggère que l’appréciation réelle liée au rattrapage économique recouvre des évolutions de prix relatifs différentes suivant les régimes de change, dont témoignent des trajectoires d’endettement extérieur contrastées. Dans les économies en changes flexibles, la hausse du taux de change nominal favorise une appréciation endogène des termes de l’échange à moyen terme, en orientant les investissements directs étrangers et la réalisation des gains de productivité vers le secteur exposé de l’économie, ce qui se traduit par une appréciation du taux de change réel d’équilibre et une amélioration des comptes extérieurs. Dans les économies en changes fixes, les effets de valorisation liés à la hausse des prix relatifs domestiques tendent à orienter les investissements vers le secteur abrité de l’économie, entraînant une érosion de la compétitivité extérieure, dont témoigne le gonflement de la dette externe. Par ailleurs, l’intégration monétaire comporte des risques spécifiques pour la stabilité macroéconomique des économies en rattrapage, dans la mesure où elle s’accompagne d’un processus marqué de convergence des conditions de financement entre Etats membres, dès lors que la perspective de l’adhésion à l’espace monétaire commun devient crédible. Un modèle dynamique à anticipations rationnelles permet de montrer que face au choc de demande lié à une telle convergence financière, l’appréciation du taux de change nominal se révèle cruciale pour limiter la surchauffe de l’économie. A l’inverse, dans les économies en régime de change fixe, l’abaissement des primes de risque pays est susceptible de provoquer une montée de l’endettement extérieur, suivi d’enchaînements déflationnistes une fois dans l’union monétaire
This research investigates the challenges of price level catching-up for macroeconomic stability in Central and Eastern European transition countries seeking to enter the Euro area. In this respect, an equilibrium real exchange rate model suggests that the process of real appreciation observed along economic catching-up in these countries can be ascribed to different relative price developments, depending on the exchange rate regime, as exemplified by contrasted external debt trajectories. In flexible exchange rate economies, the increase in the nominal exchange rate fosters an endogenous appreciation of the terms of trade in the medium run, by channelling foreign direct investment and associated productivity gains to the exposed sector of the economy, thus appreciating the equilibrium real exchange rate and strengthening the current account over time. In fixed exchange rate economies, positive valuation effects associated with the increase in domestic relative prices tend to divert investment to the sheltered sector, thus undermining external competitiveness and bringing about higher external debt. Furthermore, monetary integration entails specific risks for macroeconomic stability in catching-up economies, because it implies a process of rapid convergence in the financing conditions across member States, which takes place as soon as the perspective of accession to the common monetary area appears credible. A dynamic, rational expectations model shows that the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate becomes crucial to curtail the economic overheating triggered by the demand shock associated with financial convergence. By contrast, diminishing country risk premia under fixed exchange rate regimes are likely to cause ‘boom bust’ cycles, with an increase in external indebtedness followed by deflationary developments once in the monetary union

Defence date: 13 May 2019
Examining Board: Prof. Philipp Genschel, European University Institute; Prof. Adrienne Héritier, European University Institute; Prof. C. Randall Henning, American University Washington D.C.; Prof. Manuela Moschella, Scuola Normale Superiore
This article-based dissertation traces the institutional responses to the euro area crisis in the realm of fiscal and financial governance. First, it shows why the diffusion of national fiscal councils in the EU has not led to institutional isomorphism. The troika institutions - the European Commission, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund - formed a technocratic consensus about the desirability of establishing national fiscal councils in the EU. Considerable disagreement existed, however, with regards to their design features. Each institution promoted a distinct fiscal council model in line with their institutional self-interest. Preference heterogeneity among the troika members ultimately prevented the spread of a one-size-fits-all fiscal council in the EU. Second, this thesis links three models of a fiscal council (agent, trustee and orchestrator) to three different sources of the deficit bias (i.e. forecasting errors, common pool problem, asymmetric information) and three different conceptions of legitimacy (input, output, throughput). Third, it explains why the ECB President started to visit national parliaments. The ECB’s unconventional monetary policy measures triggered unprecedented levels of public distrust, invigorated a fierce debate about central bank independence and led to deteriorating output legitimacy. Given the diverging demands from creditor and debtor states, the ECB saw an opportunity to reduce the audience costs of their policies by directly targeting national parliaments. Fourth, it shows how large cross-border banks stood to gain from the banking union because it would level the playing field, create regulatory savings and ultimately encroach on the business model of the smaller competitors that had, thus far, been shielded from competition through favorable regulation. Fifth, it discusses the European Stability Mechanism, the ECB, the proposed European Minister of Economics and Finance and the European Fiscal Board and relates them to strategies that supranational actors can pursue to deepen European integration.
Chapter 2 draws upon an earlier article published in the JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies. Chapter 3 draws upon an earlier article published in the Journal of Contemporary European Research (JCER). Chapter 4 draws upon an earlier article published in the Journal of European Integration. Chapter 5 draws upon an earlier paper published in the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Research Paper Series. Chapter 6 draws upon an earlier paper published in the CERiM Online Paper Series.

This thesis provides new insight into the EMU’s impact on the Euro-area firms’ performance, by examining the firms’ accounting rates of return and financial cash flows. The impact is evaluated separately for the EMU formation and the physical Euro adoption, and over different time horizons. The existing literature does not directly examine these issues. This study uses the regression model of the difference-in-differences approach to examine 121 Euro-area and North American firms, covering 14 sectors, over the period from 1992 to 2008. The results indicate a positive impact of the EMU on the firms’ financial cash flows, especially after the Euro adoption, which support the related literature. However, the accounting rates of return suggest a mostly negative impact. The magnitude of the impacts declines over time. The results are robust with respect to GDP as a control variable. The study also reports the EMU’s impact on 4 major industrial sectors.
viii, 68 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm

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Bachelors
Business Administration
Finance

This thesis addresses three relevant macroeconomic issues: (i) why

Central Banks behave so cautiously compared to optimal theoretical

benchmarks, (ii) do monetary variables add information about

future Euro Area inflation to a large amount of non monetary

variables and (iii) why national saving and investment are so

correlated in OECD countries in spite of the high degree of

integration of international financial markets.

The process of innovation in the elaboration of economic theory

and statistical analysis of the data witnessed in the last thirty

years has greatly enriched the toolbox available to

macroeconomists. Two aspects of such a process are particularly

noteworthy for addressing the issues in this thesis: the

development of macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general

equilibrium models (see Woodford, 1999b for an historical

perspective) and of techniques that enable to handle large data

sets in a parsimonious and flexible manner (see Reichlin, 2002 for

an historical perspective).

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE) provide the

appropriate tools to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of

policy changes. These models, by exploiting modern intertemporal

general equilibrium theory, aggregate the optimal responses of

individual as consumers and firms in order to identify the

aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms by the

restrictions imposed by optimizing individual behavior. Such a

modelling strategy, uncovering economic relationships invariant to

a change in policy regimes, provides a framework to analyze the

effects of economic policy that is robust to the Lucas'critique

(see Lucas, 1976). The early attempts of explaining business

cycles by starting from microeconomic behavior suggested that

economic policy should play no role since business cycles

reflected the efficient response of economic agents to exogenous

sources of fluctuations (see the seminal paper by Kydland and Prescott, 1982}

and, more recently, King and Rebelo, 1999). This view was challenged by

several empirical studies showing that the adjustment mechanisms

of variables at the heart of macroeconomic propagation mechanisms

like prices and wages are not well represented by efficient

responses of individual agents in frictionless economies (see, for

example, Kashyap, 1999; Cecchetti, 1986; Bils and Klenow, 2004 and Dhyne et al. 2004). Hence, macroeconomic models currently incorporate

some sources of nominal and real rigidities in the DSGE framework

and allow the study of the optimal policy reactions to inefficient

fluctuations stemming from frictions in macroeconomic propagation

mechanisms.

Against this background, the first chapter of this thesis sets up

a DSGE model in order to analyze optimal monetary policy in an

economy with sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price

adjustments. Price setters are divided in two groups: those

subject to Calvo type nominal rigidities and those able to change

their prices at each period. Sectorial heterogeneity in price

setting behavior is a relevant feature in real economies (see, for

example, Bils and Klenow, 2004 for the US and Dhyne, 2004 for the Euro

Area). Hence, neglecting it would lead to an understatement of the

heterogeneity in the transmission mechanisms of economy wide

shocks. In this framework, Aoki (2001) shows that a Central

Bank maximizing social welfare should stabilize only inflation in

the sector where prices are sticky (hereafter, core inflation).

Since complete stabilization is the only true objective of the

policymaker in Aoki (2001) and, hence, is not only desirable

but also implementable, the equilibrium real interest rate in the

economy is equal to the natural interest rate irrespective of the

degree of heterogeneity that is assumed. This would lead to

conclude that stabilizing core inflation rather than overall

inflation does not imply any observable difference in the

aggressiveness of the policy behavior. While maintaining the

assumption of sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price

adjustments, this chapter adds non negligible transaction

frictions to the model economy in Aoki (2001). As a

consequence, the social welfare maximizing monetary policymaker

faces a trade-off among the stabilization of core inflation,

economy wide output gap and the nominal interest rate. This

feature reflects the trade-offs between conflicting objectives

faced by actual policymakers. The chapter shows that the existence

of this trade-off makes the aggressiveness of the monetary policy

reaction dependent on the degree of sectorial heterogeneity in the

economy. In particular, in presence of sectorial heterogeneity in

price adjustments, Central Banks are much more likely to behave

less aggressively than in an economy where all firms face nominal

rigidities. Hence, the chapter concludes that the excessive

caution in the conduct of monetary policy shown by actual Central

Banks (see, for example, Rudebusch and Svennsson, 1999 and Sack, 2000) might not

represent a sub-optimal behavior but, on the contrary, might be

the optimal monetary policy response in presence of a relevant

sectorial dispersion in the frequency of price adjustments.

DSGE models are proving useful also in empirical applications and

recently efforts have been made to incorporate large amounts of

information in their framework (see Boivin and Giannoni, 2006). However, the

typical DSGE model still relies on a handful of variables. Partly,

this reflects the fact that, increasing the number of variables,

the specification of a plausible set of theoretical restrictions

identifying aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms

becomes cumbersome. On the other hand, several questions in

macroeconomics require the study of a large amount of variables.

Among others, two examples related to the second and third chapter

of this thesis can help to understand why. First, policymakers

analyze a large quantity of information to assess the current and

future stance of their economies and, because of model

uncertainty, do not rely on a single modelling framework.

Consequently, macroeconomic policy can be better understood if the

econometrician relies on large set of variables without imposing

too much a priori structure on the relationships governing their

evolution (see, for example, Giannone et al. 2004 and Bernanke et al. 2005).

Moreover, the process of integration of good and financial markets

implies that the source of aggregate shocks is increasingly global

requiring, in turn, the study of their propagation through cross

country links (see, among others, Forni and Reichlin, 2001 and Kose et al. 2003). A

priori, country specific behavior cannot be ruled out and many of

the homogeneity assumptions that are typically embodied in open

macroeconomic models for keeping them tractable are rejected by

the data. Summing up, in order to deal with such issues, we need

modelling frameworks able to treat a large amount of variables in

a flexible manner, i.e. without pre-committing on too many

a-priori restrictions more likely to be rejected by the data. The

large extent of comovement among wide cross sections of economic

variables suggests the existence of few common sources of

fluctuations (Forni et al. 2000 and Stock and Watson, 2002) around which

individual variables may display specific features: a shock to the

world price of oil, for example, hits oil exporters and importers

with different sign and intensity or global technological advances

can affect some countries before others (Giannone and Reichlin, 2004). Factor

models mainly rely on the identification assumption that the

dynamics of each variable can be decomposed into two orthogonal

components - common and idiosyncratic - and provide a parsimonious

tool allowing the analysis of the aggregate shocks and their

propagation mechanisms in a large cross section of variables. In

fact, while the idiosyncratic components are poorly

cross-sectionally correlated, driven by shocks specific of a

variable or a group of variables or measurement error, the common

components capture the bulk of cross-sectional correlation, and

are driven by few shocks that affect, through variable specific

factor loadings, all items in a panel of economic time series.

Focusing on the latter components allows useful insights on the

identity and propagation mechanisms of aggregate shocks underlying

a large amount of variables. The second and third chapter of this

thesis exploit this idea.

The second chapter deals with the issue whether monetary variables

help to forecast inflation in the Euro Area harmonized index of

consumer prices (HICP). Policymakers form their views on the

economic outlook by drawing on large amounts of potentially

relevant information. Indeed, the monetary policy strategy of the

European Central Bank acknowledges that many variables and models

can be informative about future Euro Area inflation. A peculiarity

of such strategy is that it assigns to monetary information the

role of providing insights for the medium - long term evolution of

prices while a wide range of alternative non monetary variables

and models are employed in order to form a view on the short term

and to cross-check the inference based on monetary information.

However, both the academic literature and the practice of the

leading Central Banks other than the ECB do not assign such a

special role to monetary variables (see Gali et al. 2004 and

references therein). Hence, the debate whether money really

provides relevant information for the inflation outlook in the

Euro Area is still open. Specifically, this chapter addresses the

issue whether money provides useful information about future

inflation beyond what contained in a large amount of non monetary

variables. It shows that a few aggregates of the data explain a

large amount of the fluctuations in a large cross section of Euro

Area variables. This allows to postulate a factor structure for

the large panel of variables at hand and to aggregate it in few

synthetic indexes that still retain the salient features of the

large cross section. The database is split in two big blocks of

variables: non monetary (baseline) and monetary variables. Results

show that baseline variables provide a satisfactory predictive

performance improving on the best univariate benchmarks in the

period 1997 - 2005 at all horizons between 6 and 36 months.

Remarkably, monetary variables provide a sensible improvement on

the performance of baseline variables at horizons above two years.

However, the analysis of the evolution of the forecast errors

reveals that most of the gains obtained relative to univariate

benchmarks of non forecastability with baseline and monetary

variables are realized in the first part of the prediction sample

up to the end of 2002, which casts doubts on the current

forecastability of inflation in the Euro Area.

The third chapter is based on a joint work with Domenico Giannone

and gives empirical foundation to the general equilibrium

explanation of the Feldstein - Horioka puzzle. Feldstein and Horioka (1980) found

that domestic saving and investment in OECD countries strongly

comove, contrary to the idea that high capital mobility should

allow countries to seek the highest returns in global financial

markets and, hence, imply a correlation among national saving and

investment closer to zero than one. Moreover, capital mobility has

strongly increased since the publication of Feldstein - Horioka's

seminal paper while the association between saving and investment

does not seem to comparably decrease. Through general equilibrium

mechanisms, the presence of global shocks might rationalize the

correlation between saving and investment. In fact, global shocks,

affecting all countries, tend to create imbalance on global

capital markets causing offsetting movements in the global

interest rate and can generate the observed correlation across

national saving and investment rates. However, previous empirical

studies (see Ventura, 2003) that have controlled for the effects

of global shocks in the context of saving-investment regressions

failed to give empirical foundation to this explanation. We show

that previous studies have neglected the fact that global shocks

may propagate heterogeneously across countries, failing to

properly isolate components of saving and investment that are

affected by non pervasive shocks. We propose a novel factor

augmented panel regression methodology that allows to isolate

idiosyncratic sources of fluctuations under the assumption of

heterogenous transmission mechanisms of global shocks. Remarkably,

by applying our methodology, the association between domestic

saving and investment decreases considerably over time,

consistently with the observed increase in international capital

mobility. In particular, in the last 25 years the correlation

between saving and investment disappears.

Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Нароган В. В. Монетарна політика держави в системі забезпечення економічної безпеки України: дисертація на здобуття наукового ступеня кандидата економічних наук за спеціальністю 21.04.01 – економічна безпека держави / Нароган Вадим Валентинович. – Львів: Львівський державний університет внутрішніх справ МВС України, 2020. - 240 с.
Дисертація присвячена вирішенню наукової проблеми, пов’язаної з розробкою теоретичних, методологічних та практичних рекомендацій щодо ефективного застосування монетарної політики для забезпечення економічної безпеки держави. Узагальнено, в дисертації: (1) проаналізовано теоретико-методичні засади дослідження монетарної політики як інструмента зміцнення національної економічної безпеки (зокрема, теоретичні підходи до аналізу монетарної політики у взаємозв’язку з економічною безпекою держави; монетарна політика як засіб забезпечення національної економічної безпеки; застосовано методи теоретичного моделювання монетарної політики у системі зміцнення економічної безпеки держави); (2) окреслено роль монетарної політики у забезпеченні економічної безпеки України (а саме, наведена характеристика монетарної політики у глобальній економіці; проаналізовано етапи розвитку монетарної політики в Україні; здійснено критичну оцінку особливостей механізмів зміцнення економічної безпеки України з використанням інструментарію монетарної політики); (3) розроблено стратегічні напрями застосування монетарної політики в системі забезпечення економічної безпеки України (насамперед, використано стратегічне програмування впливу монетарної політики на економічну безпеку держави з використанням інструментарію теорії ігор; розглянуто можливість використання криптовалюти як механізму протидії загрозам безпеці розвитку національної економіки; окреслено напрями адаптації європейського досвіду проведення монетарної політики у забезпеченні економічної безпеки України). На основі критичного аналізу наукових джерел розглядаються теоретичні підходи до вивчення монетарної політики стосовно економічної безпеки держави. Проаналізовано монетарну політику як засіб забезпечення національної економічної безпеки. Проведено теоретичне моделювання монетарної політики в контексті посилення економічної безпеки держави. Вивчені основні аспекти монетарної політики у світовій економіці та в Україні. Розкрито особливості механізмів посилення економічної безпеки України із застосуванням інструментів монетарної політики. Запропоновано підходи до стратегічного програмування впливу монетарної політики на економічну безпеку держави з використанням інструментів теорії ігор. Розглядається можливість використання криптовалюти як механізму протидії загрозам безпеці розвитку національної економіки. Окреслено можливості адаптації європейського досвіду проведення монетарної політики щодо забезпечення економічної безпеки України. У дисертації розроблені методичні підходи до визначення головного завдання монетарної політики, які відрізняються від діючих механізмів державного макроекономічного регулювання шляхом вирівнювання економічних циклів за наявності стабільної динаміки цін та відносно низького рівня безробіття, що створить передумови для макроекономічного балансу, економічного розвитку та забезпечення економічної безпеки, а також алгоритм впровадження грошових механізмів, який, на відміну від діючої у вітчизняній грошовій системі, містить такі елементи: грошове таргетування; валютне таргетування; інфляційне таргетування (згідно за правилом Тейлора); орієнтація на реальний ВВП, що підвищить ефективність монетарної політики та забезпечить поліпшення економічної безпеки держави. Подальший розвиток отримали методологічні підходи до моделювання монетарної політики, які відрізняються використанням моделі управління Баумоля-Тобіна та додаванням змінних, що характеризують рівень економічної безпеки держави з урахуванням трансакційних витрат домогосподарств, що дозволило враховувати взаємозв’язок між монетарною політикою та економічною безпекою на різних рівнях ієрархії управління соціально-економічною системою. Окреслено методологічні підходи до аналізу взаємозв’язку між монетарними чинниками та рівнем економічної безпеки держави з інституціональної точки зору, де, на відміну від усталеного твердження обґрунтовано, що не лише дохід, відсоткова ставка, а й трансакційні мотиви є факторами, які слід враховувати під час стратегічного планування розвитку монетарної сфери та забезпечення національної економічної безпеки держави, особливо її фінансової компоненти. Проаналізовано методичні підходи до використання механізмів криптовалюти як методу протидії загрозам фінансовій безпеці національних економік у глобальному середовищі, які, на відміну від існуючих теоретичних розробок, ґрунтуються на застосуванні теорії ігор, що дозволяє мінімізувати загрози та запропонувати підходи до прогнозування впливу на економічну безпеку в коротко- та довгостроковій перспективі. На основі здійсненого дослідження зроблено наступні висновки. Доведено, що в ефективному функціонуванні усіх державних механізмів провідну роль відіграє монетарна політика. Зауважено, що у чинному законодавстві відсутнє закріплення змісту монетарної політики та в доктринальному тлумаченні − її узагальнене розуміння. Виявлено непоодинокі випадки ототожнення монетарної та грошово-кредитної політики, навіть у нормативно-правових актах, необхідність чого є сумнівною. Підтверджено, що монетарна політика ґрунтується як на економічних законах грошового обігу, так і на законах соціального розвитку, а в її основі лежать кредитні та валютні операції, які відбуваються на фінансовому ринку. Наголошено, що головною ціллю монетарної політики держави повинна бути розробка концептуальних основ для стійкого економічного зростання у довгостроковій перспективі. Обґрунтовано, що становлення монетарної політики незалежної України пройшло довгий та складний шлях, змінюючись під впливом тієї чи іншої економічної теорії та в ході постійної полеміки представників різних теорій. При цьому спостерігаються як позитивні моменти, так і негативні. До позитивних віднесено відмову використання прямих кредитів Національного банку України для фінансування бюджетного дефіциту. До негативних – спрямованість монетарної політики на створення фінансового капіталу поруч з виробництвом, а не в якості його підґрунтя, що обумовило формування примітивного ринку. Виявлено, що на сучасному етапі інфляція в Україні носить переважно немонетарний характер, оскільки причиною інфляції є – зростання витрат виробництва (насамперед, цін і тарифів природних монополій, відсоткової ставки, транспортних послуг). Перерозподіл грошових потоків на користь природних монополій, диспаритет цін на енергоносії та сировинні товари відносно цін готової продукції призводять до збитковості та не конкурентоспроможності вагомої частки підприємств сільського господарства та обробної промисловості. У підсумку, вітчизняна економіка втрачає конкурентні переваги на глобальних ринках. Наголошено, що на початку ХХІ ст. багато розвинених країн цікавилися трансмісійним механізмом та його впливом на економіку. Особливий інтерес до трансмісійного механізму в Європі був викликаний пошуком схожих структур країн Єврозони для проведення єдиної грошово-кредитної політики. Актуальність дослідження трансмісійного механізму в Україні визначається наслідками світової кризи та її впливом на фінансову безпеку, яка вимагає перегляду тактики грошово-кредитної політики, виходячи із завдань підтримки постійних темпів економічного зростання та стабільного курсу гривні. Зауважено, що проведення ефективної монетарної політики залежить від досягнення тактичних, проміжних, кінцевих цілей. Основні цільові орієнтири й параметри аналізованої політики представляють собою глобальне завдання, що є прерогативою не лише НБУ, але й інших державних регуляторів. Серед основних напрямів монетарної політики виокремлюють такі: зростання реального обсягу ВВП; помірні темпи інфляції; рівновагу платіжного балансу; максимальна зайнятість. Виявлено, що на сучасному етапі, під впливом агресивної інвестиційної діяльності провідних країн та активної політики найбільших ІТ-компаній лавиноподібно розвивається глобальний цифровий простір. Проте в Україні цифрова економіка залишається сферою з нерозкритим потенціалом. Очевидно, що світова паперово-грошова система знаходиться в кризі, а значить замість неї мають прийти нові структуровані фінансові продукти. У світових фінансово-платіжних системах такими продуктами стали криптовалюти, серед яких одним із найбільш розповсюджених є біткоїн. Обґрунтовано, що для того, щоб криптовалюту можна було сприймати як гроші, у неї має бути як мінімум п’ять властивостей, якими наділені традиційні гроші, а саме: портативність, довговічність, подільність, пізнаваність, передбачуваність вартості грошей. Водночас глобальне поширення таких платежів перетворює цю категорію послуг на привабливу для протизаконних дій, у тому числі у сфері легалізації доходів, одержаних злочинним шляхом, фінансування тероризму тощо. В даний час спостерігається тенденція до використання криптовалют зловмисниками для анонімізації своїх дій, а громадяни все частіше стають жертвами шахраїв. In general, in the dissertation: (1) the theoretical and methodological principles of monetary policy research as a tool for strengthening national economic security (in particular, theoretical approaches to the analysis of monetary policy in relation to economic security; monetary policy as a means of national economic security; applied methods of monetary policy theoretical modeling in the system of strengthening the economic security of the state) are analyzed; (2) the role of monetary policy in ensuring Ukraine's economic security (in particular, the characteristics of monetary policy in the global economy; the stages of monetary policy development in Ukraine; critically assesses the mechanisms of strengthening Ukraine's economic security using monetary policy tools) is outlined; (3) strategic directions of monetary policy application in the system of economic security of Ukraine (first of all, used strategic programming of monetary policy influence on economic security of the state using game theory tools; considered the possibility of using cryptocurrency as a mechanism to counter security threats to the national economy; European experience in conducting monetary policy in ensuring the economic security of Ukraine) is developed. Based on a critical analysis of scientific sources, theoretical approaches to the study of monetary policy in relation to the economic security of the state are considered. Monetary policy as a means of ensuring national economic security is analyzed. Theoretical modeling of monetary policy in the context of strengthening the economic security of the state is carried out. The main aspects of monetary policy in the world economy and in Ukraine are studied. The peculiarities of the mechanisms of strengthening the Ukraine’s economic security using the monetary policy instruments are revealed. Approaches to strategic programming of the impact of monetary policy on the economic security of the state using the tools of game theory are proposed. The possibility of cryptocurrency using as a mechanism to counter security threats to the development of the national economy is considered. The possibilities of adapting the European experience of monetary policy conducting to ensure the economic security of Ukraine are outlined. The dissertation develops methodological approaches to defining the main task of monetary policy, which differ from the current mechanisms of state macroeconomic regulation by equalizing economic cycles in the presence of stable price dynamics and relatively low unemployment, which will create preconditions for macroeconomic balance, economic development and economic security. Also an algorithm for the introduction of monetary mechanisms, which, in contrast to the current in the domestic monetary system, contains the following elements: monetary targeting; currency targeting; inflation targeting (according to the Taylor rule); focus on real GDP, which will increase the effectiveness of monetary policy and improve the economic security of the state. Methodological approaches to monetary policy modeling have been further developed, differing in the use of the Baumol-Tobin governance model and the addition of variables that characterize the level of economic security of households, taking into account the transaction costs of households, management of the socioeconomic system. Methodological approaches to the analysis of the relationship between monetary factors and the level of economic security of the state from the institutional point of view are outlined, where, in contrast to the established statement, it is substantiated that not only income, interest rate, but also transactional motives are factors within strategic planning for the development of the monetary sphere and ensuring the national economic security of the state, especially its financial component. Methodological approaches to cryptocurrency mechanisms using as a method of counteracting threats to the financial security of national economies in the global environment are analyzed, which, unlike existing theoretical developments, are based on the application of game theory, which minimizes threats and offers approaches to forecasting economic security in long-term perspective . Based on the study, the following conclusions are made. It is proved that monetary policy plays a leading role in the effective functioning of all state mechanisms. It is noted that in the current legislation there is no consolidation of the content of monetary policy and in the doctrinal interpretation − its generalized understanding. There are many cases of identification of monetary and monetary policy, even in regulations, the need for which is questionable. It is confirmed that monetary policy is based on both the economic laws of money circulation and the laws of social development, and is based on credit and currency transactions that take place in the financial market. It is emphasized that the main goal of the monetary policy of the state should be to develop a conceptual framework for sustainable economic growth in the long run. It is substantiated that the formation of the monetary policy of independent Ukraine has come a long and difficult way, changing under the influence of one or another economic theory and in the course of constant controversy between representatives of various theories. At the same time, both positive and negative moments are observed. The refusal to use direct loans of the National Bank of Ukraine to finance the budget deficit was considered positive. The negative are the following − the focus of monetary policy on the creation of financial capital along with production, rather than as its basis, which led to the formation of a primitive market. It was found that at the present stage inflation in Ukraine is mainly nonmonetary, as the cause of inflation is − rising production costs (primarily, prices and tariffs of natural monopolies, interest rates, transport services). The redistribution of cash flows in favor of natural monopolies, the disparity in prices for energy and raw materials relative to the prices of finished products lead to unprofitability and noncompetitiveness of a significant share of agricultural and manufacturing enterprises. As a result, the domestic economy is losing competitive advantage in global markets. It is emphasized that at the beginning of the XXI century many developed countries were interested in the transmission mechanism and its impact on the economy. Particular interest in the transmission mechanism in Europe was caused by the search for similar structures of the Eurozone countries to conduct a single monetary policy. The relevance of the study of the transmission mechanism in Ukraine is determined by the effects of the global crisis and its impact on financial security, which requires a review of monetary policy, based on the task of maintaining constant economic growth and a stable hryvnia exchange rate. It is noted that the conduct of effective monetary policy depends on the achievement of tactical, intermediate, ultimate goals. The main targets and parameters of the analyzed policy are a global task, which is the prerogative not only of the NBU, but also of other state regulators. Among the main directions of monetary policy are the following: real GDP growth; moderate inflation; balance of payments; maximum employment. It is revealed that at the present stage, under the influence of aggressive investment activities of leading countries and active policy of the largest IT companies, the global digital space is developing avalanche-like. However, in Ukraine, the digital economy remains an area of untapped potential. It is obvious that the world paper and money system is in crisis, which means that new structured financial products should come instead. In the world's financial and payment systems, such products are cryptocurrencies, among which one of the most common is bitcoin. It is argued that in order for a cryptocurrency to be perceived as money, it must have at least five properties that are endowed with traditional money, first of all: portability, durability, divisibility, recognizability, predictability of the money value. At the same time, the global proliferation of such payments makes this category of services attractive for illegal actions, including in the field of money laundering, terrorist financing, etc. Currently, there is a tendency for criminals to use cryptocurrencies to anonymize their actions, and citizens are increasingly falling victim to fraud.

This thesis consists of four self-contained but related papers trying to uncover different aspects of banking and sovereign risk in the member countries of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). From a methodological point of view, they all have in common the contingent claims model from the theory of finance, which is used to value call options on a stock. The first paper, “Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries”, studies the structural differences in banking sector and financial regulations at country level to measure and analyze the banking sector risk behavior. Deviating from the current view, which in our opinion is excessively focused on Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs), we introduce a micro approach to emphasize the role of smaller financial institutions in build-up of risk. The paper starts with a discussion of the reasons that are needed to consider this choice. Contingent claims analysis model is employed to calculate the risk of individual banks which is then aggregated at country level. The remaining of the paper tries to highlight the information content of country level banking risk indices. It is shown that if banking sector risk is calculated at country level using a bigger sample of banks, it can provide a simple, convenient and intuitive forward looking risk measure. The risk measures differentiate countries based on the structural differences in their financial sectors and show strong correlations with national and regional market sentiment indicators. They outperform the regulatory risk measures based at the European level and the causal linkages run from them to the latter indicators, suggesting better information content. And even though they have high correlations, causality and connectedness tests reveal no systemic component. The second paper, “Sovereigns and banks in the euro area: a tale of two crises”, attempts to quantify the directional intensity of sovereign-bank linkages in the euro area countries. To this end, we borrow the indicator of banking sector risk in each country from the first paper, and use a traditional measure of sovereign risk (10-year government yield spreads over Germany). The paper starts with the review of channels via which banks and sovereigns are linked in a vicious cycle. We apply a dynamic approach to testing for Granger causality between the two measures of risk in each country, allowing us to check for episodes of significant and abrupt increase in short-run causal linkages. The empirical results indicate that episodes of causality intensification vary considerably in both directions over time and across the different EMU countries. The directionality suggests the presence of causality intensification, mainly from banks to sovereigns, in the crisis periods. Our findings also present empirical evidence about the existence of an adverse feedback loop between sovereigns and banks in some euro-area countries. The third paper, “Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models: Application to peripheral euro area countries”, develops and uses a seniority structure of sovereign's creditors to analyze the impact of sectoral distribution of debt on the sovereign credit risk. Specifically, this paper highlights the role of multilateral creditors (i.e., the ECB, IMF, ESM etc.) and their preferred creditor status in explaining the sovereign default risk of peripheral euro area (EA) countries. Incorporating lessons from sovereign debt crises in general, and from the Greek debt restructuring in particular, we define the priority structure of sovereigns' creditors that is most relevant for peripheral EA countries in severe crisis episodes. This new priority structure of creditors, together with the contingent claims methodology, is then used to derive a set of sovereign credit risk indicators. In particular, the sovereign distance-to-default indicator, proposed in this paper (which includes both accounting metrics and market-based measures) aims to isolate sovereign credit risk by using information from the public sector balance sheets to build it up. Analyzing and comparing it with traditional market-based measures of sovereign risk suggests that the measurement and predictive ability of credit risk measures can be vastly improved if we account for the changing composition of sovereigns' balance sheet risk based on creditors' seniority. In the last paper, “Revisiting the sovereign-bank linkages: Evidence from contingent claims analysis”, we reconsider the sovereign-bank nexus as discussed in the second paper to check the robustness of our findings. Using the banking sector risk indicator developed in our first paper, together with the sovereign risk index build in the third paper we re-inspect the bank-sovereign linkages. We use three different statistical measures of interconnection based on principal components analysis, Granger causality network and Diebold-Yilmaz's connectedness index. We also compare our results with alternative specifications using existing market-based indicators of banking and sovereign risk. Our results suggest strong connectedness and co-movement between country-level banking and sovereign risk indicators. We also find evidence of an increasing role of idiosyncratic risk factors driving the evolution of all risk indices in the post-crisis period, thus supporting the “wake-up call hypothesis” that the sensitivity of financial market participants to fundamental differences increased during the crisis. Country-wise analysis of time-varying bi-directional linkages using dynamic Granger-causality suggests the development of a bank-sovereign doom loop in Spain corroborating for this country the findings of our second paper. Connectedness analysis also suggest that increasingly the risk is being driven away from market-based uncertainty to the idiosyncratic risk factors, which are better captured by the contingent claim based indices.

In the last few decades the European Union (EU) and its members have emphasized the importance of human rights and the need to improve human rights conditions in Third World countries. In this research project, I attempted to find out whether the European Union and its members practice what they preach by giving precedence to countries that respect human rights through their Official Development Assistance (ODA) program. Furthermore, I tried to analyze whether European integration occurs at the foreign policy level through aid allocation. Based on the literatures on political conditionality and on the relationship between human rights and foreign aid allocation, I expected that all EU members promote principles of good governance by rewarding countries that protect the human rights of their citizens. I conducted a cross-sectional time-series selection model over all recipients of ODA for each of the twelve members for which I have data, the European Commission, and the aggregate EU disbursements from 1979 to 1998.

Defence date: 27 February 2019
Examining Board: Prof. Dr. Heike Schweitzer, LL.M. (Yale), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin; Prof. Giorgio Monti, European University Institute; Prof. Dr. Rupprecht Podszun, Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf; Prof. Lorenzo Federico Pace, Università degli studi del Molise
The thesis contributes to the debate on the EU’s approach to the business practice of resale price maintenance (RPM), which is widely criticized as too strict and in conflict with what is considered to be the consensus in the economic literature. The thesis critically dissects the economic consensus, on which the critique against the EU’s approach is based, by analyzing the empirical evidence that is cited to support the claim that RPM can frequently be explained by the service-based RPM models and shows that there is no convincing evidence that would support the significance of these positive RPM models that predict positive effects on welfare. To support this finding the thesis collects new evidence by surveying the marketing literature and shows that not only is there no convincing evidence that the positive RPM models frequently apply, but to the contrary there is evidence that these models are inconsistent with the real world phenomenon of RPM. Having refuted the service-based models the thesis takes up the scientific challenge that “it takes a theory to beat a theory” and proposes to fill the gap with three price-based models. The thesis offers an analysis of the three price-based RPM models, first from the perspective of welfare effects and then from a broader economic perspective in an attempt to ultimately show that the EU approach to RPM can be justified based on these economic models. All three models explain the situation in which RPM is used by a branded good manufacturer to create the perception of high quality, which is used either as a credible quality signal, becomes a component of the product or is used to bias the consumer decision; they thus enter the difficult terrain of consumer preference formation and of markets for the intangible components of a product.

This study develops a model of macroeconomic and political determinants of public support for European integration. The research is conducted on pooled cross-sectional time-series data from five European Union member states between 1978 and 1994. The method used in this analysis is a Generalized Least Squares - Autoregressive Moving Average approach. The factors hypothesized to determine a macroeconomic explanation of public support for integration are inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. The effect of the major economic reform in the 1980s, the Single European Act, is hypothesized to act as a positive permanent intervention. The other determinants of public support are the temporary interventions of European Parliament elections and the permanent intervention of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. These are hypothesized to exert a negative effect. In a fully specified model all variables except economic growth and European Parliament elections demonstrate statistical significance at the 0.10 level or better.

The purpose of the article is to study the essence and stages of strategic analysis in ensuring economic security. Research methods: the use of system-structural method and the method of generalization allowed to analyze the general trends in the use of methods of strategic analysis. Using the dialectical method of scientific knowledge, as well as methods of analysis, synthesis and abstraction, the content and purpose of the research problem are clarified, its main features and structure, as well as the relationship with systems analysis are determined. Results: these methods of strategic analysis significantly increase the efficiency of forecasting the development of situations in the field of economic security due to the possibility of compiling a SWOT-analysis, PEST-analysis, etc. Discussion: in order to improve the system of strategic analysis, it is necessary to involve certain independent think tanks. Such think tanks should work closely with the authorities and be partially funded by the Government of Ukraine to obtain any necessary analytical information from them. Thus, the key issues of economic security are: the system of forecasting management activities; the process of research and analytical examinations; development of information and analytical products and their distribution; professional activity of specialists, professionals, analysts. Given the above, we conclude that the strategic analysis of public administration in the field of economic security is aimed at providing quality information to public authorities, and its improvement is impossible without studying the methodological principles of its formation. Analytical centers provide a link between government and civil society; represent and protect public interests; evaluate power and its decisions and formulate alternative policy proposals. Analytical centers are involved in the formation of European policy, promote better public understanding of EU regulations and decisions. The establishment of a domestic network of think tanks according to EU standards, which will be actively integrated into Euro-Atlantic networks of think tanks, will help find additional reserves to improve the mechanisms of strategic analysis in the field of economic security and state policy on effective forecasting and analytical support.
Мета статті полягає у дослідженні сутності та етапів стратегічного аналізу в забезпеченні економічної безпеки. Методи дослідження: використання системно-структурного методу та методу узагальнення дозволило проаналізувати загальні тенденції використання методів стратегічного аналізу. За допомогою діалектичного методу наукового пізнання, а також методів аналізу, синтезу та абстрагування з’ясовано зміст та призначення досліджуваної проблеми, визначено основні його ознаки та структуру, а також співвідношення із системним аналізом. Результати: зазначені методи стратегічного аналізу значно підвищують ефективність прогнозування розвитку ситуацій у сфері економічної безпеки завдяки можливості складання SWOTаналізу, PEST-аналізу тощо. Обговорення: для удосконалення системи стратегічного аналізу необхідно долучити певні незалежні аналітичні центри. Такі аналітичні центри повинні тісно співпрацювати з владою та частково фінансуватися урядом України, для отримання від них будь-якої необхідної аналітичної інформації. Таким чином, ключовими питаннями економічної безпеки є: система прогнозного забезпечення управлінської діяльності; процес досліджень та аналітичних експертиз; вироблення інформаційно-аналітичних продуктів та їх поширення; професійна діяльність фахівців, професіоналів, аналітиків. Враховуючи викладене, доходимо висновку, що стратегічний аналіз державного управління у сфері економічної безпеки спрямований на якісне забезпечення інформацією органів державної влади, а його удосконалення неможливе без дослідження методологічних засад його формування. Аналітичні центри забезпечують зв’язок влади і громадянського суспільства; представляють та захищають суспільні інтереси; оцінюють владу та її рішення і формулюють альтернативні політичні пропозиції. Аналітичні центри залучені до формування європейської політики, сприяють кращому розумінню громадськістю положень та рішень ЄС. Створення за стандартами ЄС вітчизняної мережі аналітичних центрів, яка буде активно інтегрована в євроатлантичні мережі аналітичних центрів, сприятиме пошуку додаткових резервів для вдосконалення механізмів стратегічного аналізу в сфері економічної безпеки та виробленню державної політики щодо ефективного прогнозно-аналітичного забезпечення органів державної влади.

Since 1973, the European Union has been expanding its borders from its six founding members - West Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Belgium, to include all of Western Europe and parts of Scandinavia by 1995. However, with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990, the EU made a difficult but beneficial choice of paving the road for the Eastern and Central European (ECE) to become EU members. However, there was a need for the EU to determine the goals and guidelines that would format the transition of these former communist states into productive members of the EU. This paper will analyze the evolution of these guidelines - formally outlined by the Copenhagen Criteria - that set the precedent for these states to become members. The main issue of this paper will take these criteria a few steps forward, comparing states that were given membership based on the criteria and those who have been established by the EU as at least "potential EU members" but have not been deemed as satisfying these criteria enough to become candidates or full members. Both qualitatively and quantitatively, the comparisions of the 2004 and 2007 new EU members and other states of the Western Balkans and Turkey will be conducted to determine if the political and economic guidelines established by Copenhagen are the only guidelines being met, or if areas such as cultural values and "Europeanness" are also contributing to membership levels.

Der Zweck dieser Arbeit ist es, die Beziehung zwischen die Größe des Landes und das Wachstum auf internationaler Ebene und vergleichsweise in der Wirtschafts-und Währungsunion zu untersuchen und erarbeiten ihre Folgen für das Verhalten der wachstumsorientierte Finanzpolitik. Um ein globales Verständnis des Zusammenhangs zwischen Größe des Landes und das Wachstum in der EWU weiter verfolgen wir einen interdisziplinären Ansatz, einschließlich der makroökonomischen Modellierung (DSGE), Ökonometrie und Analyse der politischen Ökonomie. Die Kombination dieser Untersuchungen schließen wir, dass die Größe des Landes einen Einfluss auf die wirtschaftlichen Strukturen der Nationen, die Auswirkungen ihrer Politik und damit auf ihre Wachstumsdynamik hat. Aus diesem Grund ist es notwendig, die Bedeutung der Größe des Landes und ihre Folgen für die WWU wieder.
The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the relationship between country size and growth at the international level and comparatively in the Economic and Monetary Union, and to draw up its consequences for the conduct of growth-orientated fiscal policies. To further a global understanding of the link between country size and growth in the EMU, we follow an interdisciplinary approach, including macro-economic modelling (DSGE), econometrics and political economy analysis. Combining these analyses, we conclude that country size has an incidence on the economic structures of nations, the effects of their policies and therefore on their pace of growth. For this reason there is a need to reinstate the importance of country size and its consequences for the EMU.

This thesis examines fiscal policy coordination in the EU during the Great Recession (2008-2010). For the first time since the Maastricht Treaty heralded the coordination of macroeconomic policies among EU Member States, public finances were collectively focused on stimulus policies. In sharp contrast to the preceding decade of consolidation and constraint, fiscal policy coordination during the Great Recession presents a novelty: a study in fiscal expansion. Drawing on Mancur Olson’s Logic of Collective Action, this thesis uses a mixed-methods approach that combines the insights from over 40 in-depth interviews and econometric analyses. The central argument of this thesis is that the fiscal crisis responses of EU Member States were not coordinated. Yet despite this lack of coordination, free-riding was kept at bay. First, the overarching consensus on the need for counter-cyclical fiscal policies prevented growth free-riding (i.e. a situation of limited domestic stimulus and free-riding on other countries’ expansive fiscal policies). Second, discipline imposed by financial market participants contributed to policy-makers’ awareness of their limited room for fiscal manoeuvre, which meant that stability free-riding (i.e. stimulus policies that exceeded a country’s fiscal space) did not occur. The first finding suggests the importance of shared policy ideas in achieving collective action; the second points to the role of financial markets in constraining public finances. Ultimately both, shared policy ideas and market discipline, can function as a substitute for strong institutional commitment to shape group oriented behaviour.

Defence date: 7 December 2007
Examining Board: Prof. Adrienne Héritier, (EUI/RSCAS) ; Prof. Olga Potemkina, (Russian Academy of Science, Moscow) ; Prof. Gerda Falkner, (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna) ; Prof. Marise Cremona, (EUI, Department of Law)
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digital archive of EUI PhD theses
The EU has engaged in the promotion of an unprecedented process of policy export which involves not only candidates to enlargement, but also a wide range of countries beyond the Union’s present and future expected (at least at the moment) borders. In this framework, Russia and Ukraine have been an important test-case for the European Union which asked them to 'endeavour to ensure' that their legislation will be 'gradually made compatible with that of the Community' already in the mid-90s. This dissertation is intended to explore the mechanisms which have allowed the EU to promote legislative approximation in these 2 countries across 3 policy areas which are at the core of the internal market and where I, thus, expected the pressure for Europeanisation to be higher: competition policy, company law and consumers’ protection. In particular, I tried to understand if and how far the EU has been able to induce Russia and Ukraine towards the desired outcome as a result of the engagement of the parties in strategic inter-action. Then, on the other hand, I tried to assess if and how far rule adoption has been motivated by internalized, socially constructed identities, values and norms. The analysis has shown that there are interesting cases of Europeanisation not only in Ukraine, but also in Russia, allowing me to highlight the limits deriving from the use of conditionality in the new neighborhood and the need to reconsider the mix between different Europeanisation strategies.

This research analyses development cooperation between the European Union (EU) and South Africa with the objective of determining which between the two entities, ultimately benefits more out of this arrangement The research goes beyond the altruistic reasons offered by the EU as the rationale for development cooperation to investigate whether South Africa's development is actually being promoted by this cooperation. Further, the research investigates whether there is also EU self-interest that informs this development cooperation. This research is conceptualised within the development aid debate framework. The research argues that this development cooperation is important to South Africa even though its impact is in real terms has not been extensive due to a number of factors. It further contends that there are EU political, security and economic interests amongst others that are being promoted by this development cooperation. The research concludes by asserting that this development cooperation promotes the mutual interests of the EU and South Africa. This conclusion challenges the paradigms of the debate on development aid which is premised in black and white terms of development aid promoting either donor or recipient interests.

This thesis examines whether EU and EMU memberships appeared to protect the member countries’ trade, measured in exports, during the 2008 global financial crisis. The panel data analysis is based on a country sample of 40 OECD and EU countries during the period from 2000 to 2016. By employing a pooled Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) regression and an augmented gravity model, we investigate how the EU and EMU countries’ trade was impacted in comparison to the average of the OECD countries’ trade during the crisis. The results indicate that being a member of the EU or the currency union did not pose additional protection, as the member countries’ trade seemed to be more negatively impacted by the crisis than the average trade in the OECD countries.

Thesis (MA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2004.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: One of the most notable features of the relations between the European Union and SADC is the current reconfiguration of their trading architecture as encapsulated in the Cotonou Agreement. Such a process of change can be shown to have inevitably been the result of policy shifts, which are salient characteristics of a global political economy, whose ontology is embedded theoretically in neo-liberalism. Nevertheless, any process of change in the structure of global trading relations has the logical outcome of systemically imposing either challenges or opportunities, and in some cases both, on the participants of that structure. This study represents a scholarly attempt at creating a lucid and descriptive embodiment of the challenges and opportunities involved for SADC in the negotiation and implementation of a Regional Economic Partnership Agreement (REPA) with the European Union. These challenges and opportunities, obligatory within a REPA framework are theoretically pronounced in as far as they shape the political economy of regional integration in SADe. The process of negotiating such a multifaceted agreement with a sophisticated partner, calls for institutional and negotiating capacity. Undoubtedly, such capacity is beyond the membership of SADe. The point is also emphasized that the process of trade liberalization, ingrained in a REPA will create a complex and difficult interface with the current SADC initiatives underway to deepen regional integration. Tellingly, these would contradict the cautious developmental and bottom up approach taken by SADC in its drive for regional integration. Conversely, this study concedes that a REPA with the EU holds a number of novel opportunities for SADC because such a process would provide scope for the fundamental restructuring of the SADC economies. The competitive pressures through decreased levels of protection within a REPA can create an upward convergence of low performing industries in the region. These, amongst others are important aspects if the political economy of SADC is to move into a virtuous cycle of deeper integration and ultimate insertion in the global economy.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Een van die mees opvallende kenmerke van verhoudinge tussen die Europese Unie (EU) en Suider-Afrikaanse Ontwikkelingsgemeenskap (SAOG) is die huidige rekonjigurasie van handelsbetrekkinge, soos vervat in die Cotonou Ooreenkoms. Hierdie proses is die onafwendbare gevolg van beleidsveranderinge in die internasionale politieke ekonomie, met 'n. ontologie wat teoreties in neo-liberalisme gewortel is. Sodanige veranderinge in die struktuur van internasionale handelsverhoudinge. bied uitdagings sowel as geleenthede, en soms beide, aan deelnemers van sodanige struktuur. Hierdie studie is 'n akademiese poging om 'n helder en deskriptiewe blik te werp op die uitdagings en geleenthede vir die SAOG met betrekking tot die onderhandeling en implimentering van die Regionale Ekonomiese Venootskapsooreenkoms (REVO) met die EU Hierdie uitdagings en geleenthede, wat verpligtend is binne die REVO struktuur, is teoreties belangrik in soverre as wat dit die politeke ekonomie van regionale integrasie in SADC beinvloed. Die onderhandelingsproses van so 'n komplekse dokument met gesofistikeerde vennote vereis intitusionele en onderhandelingskapasiteit. Hierdie kapasiteit is nie in SAOG te vinde nie. Die punt word ook benadruk dat die proses van handelsliberalisering, wat deel uitmaak van REVO, botsend kan wees met SAOG inisiatiewe om regionale integrasie te versterk. In essensie sal dit die huiwerige ontwikkelings en 'onder na ba' benadering, wat die SAOG tans volg, weerspreek. Aan die ander kant, gee die studie toe dat 'n REVO met die EU 'n hele aantal voordele inhou, aangesien so 'n proses momentum kan voorsien vir verreikende herstrukturering van SAOG ekonomieë. Die kompeterende druk a.g. v. 'n afname in beskermingsvlakke onder die REVO, kan lei tot 'n opwaartse neiging onder tradisionele swakpresterende nywerhede in die streek. Hierdie is onder andere belangrike aspekte wat SADC in gedagte moet hou, ten einde deel te word van die deugsame kringloop van dieper integrasie, en uiteindelike deelwording van die internasionale ekonomie.

The main purpose of this paper was to explore the role economic partnership agreements play in regional integration. The whole paper was premised on identifying the nature of economic partnership agreements that is conceived as a free trade arrangement. Therefore the paper discussed the feasibility of the reciprocal principle between the European Union and ACP countries, and further indicated that there is no need to implement the principle of reciprocity at present. The paper also discovered that, due to the fact that unequal trade relations between the EU and the ACP countries still exist, the implementation of the EPAs is most likely to generate the complementary but non-competitive trade relations between the EU and the ACP countries. Such a situation could result in the ACP countries over-independence on the EU's market. ACP countries are not expecting to such integration. In addition the paper ascertains that the EPAs themselves could contain the intrinsic negative impacts such as discrimination against the third countries on regional integration.

This thesis has attempted to provide an analysis of two legal instruments
the Cotonou Agreement and the AGOA. Specific attention was directed to these instruments impact on trade between the European Union and the United States, respectively, and beneficiary African countries.

Award date: 30 November 2015
Supervisor: Professor Marise Cremona, European University Institute
Member States inter se agreements are a complex legal phenomenon epitomizing the tension between intergovernmental channels of cooperation and supranational structures of integration characterizing the evolution of EU law. EMU inter se agreements, in particular, constitute a unique laboratory to investigate this tension and they help to better understand the legal nature of Member States’ international agreements which display substantive, institutional and teleological proximity to EU law. EU law imposes some restraints on Member States for the conclusion of inter se treaties. This work critically scrutinises both competence-based and procedural-based restraints which are aimed at safeguarding the specific characteristics of EU law and the peculiarities of EU institutionalism. More specifically, the evaluation of inter se treaty-making restraints moves from the consideration that the use of EU Institutions outside of the Treaties’ framework is liable to undermine the very nature of EU institutionalism. The use of institutions outside the EU framework, as devised by the EMU inter se treaties, induces to a reinforcement of contractual visions of Europe premised on the conception of EU institutions as common organs in the hands of Member States. The EU external relations law practice provides interesting solutions to the risk of departure from Institutionalism entailed in the contractual conception of Europe. In particular, the Court’s understanding of mixed agreements suggests an associative institutionalist vision of Europe which is less concerned on the precise apportioning of competences between the EU and its Member States and is more attentive to the procedural framework in which the intergovernmental and the supranational components of the EU jointly operate. This approach could be extended also to inter se patterns of integration by devising the conclusion of inter se mixed agreements, i.e. agreements envisaging the participation of the EU and of some of its Member States in legal venues aimed at fostering the European Integration project.

Defence date: 20 July 2018
Examining Board: Professor Stefan Grundmann, European University Institute; Professor Klaus Heine, Erasmus University Rotterdam; Professor Giorgio Monti, European University Institute; Professor Pietro Sirena, Università commerciale Luigi Bocconi
In the past 20 years, the European integration process has been mostly successful at establishing a single European market. However, no such success can be attributed to the establishment of an economic and monetary union. The recent financial and sovereign debt crisis dramatically exposed all the flaws and weaknesses of this ambitious project, which led the European Union into a deep economic and political crisis. In this context, the task of scholars and academics should be to explore new effective and efficient alternative in order to strengthen and create “a more perfect union”. On these premises and considerations, the present research will analyze the current legal framework of the European Monetary Union in order to assess and understand its success, and explore possible alternative institutional designs which could be more effective in achieving its objectives and, at the same time, be potentially more efficient and legittimate. More in details, after examining in the first chapter, the origin and evolution of the economic and monetary integration from its very foundation, and, in the second chapter, the current legal structure of the economic union; the last and third chapter represents the normative claim of thesis. In an attempt to reconcile both law and economics, this normative part will involve a balancing exercise between the economic concepts of effectiveness and efficiency, and the legal concepts of legitimacy. The analysis will first understand and assess the effectiveness of the present governance structure. We will argue that the fundamental problem of the present governance structure is given by its many internal inconsistencies. On these premises, we will claim that it is possible to design an alternative regime which could potentially solve such issues and thus be more effective. The resulting three different alternative regimes will then be compared and evaluated in terms of their efficiency, according to the new institutional economics approach. The purpose of the efficiency evaluation is not to identify the single most efficient system of governance, but rather to understand the distinctive strenghts and weaknesses of the various alternatives in comparison with the current structure. Ultimately, the chapter will also evaluate the current EMU structure under a legitimacy standpoint. In particular, it will try to assess and understand whether these potentially more effective and efficient alternative arrangements would also improve the EMU under a legitimacy standpoint.

Defence date: 22 June 1998
Examining Board: Prof. Mike Artis (EUI) ; Prof. Alan Cafruny (Hamilton College - co-supervisor) ; Prof. Colin Crouch (EUI-supervisor) ; Prof. Henk Overbeek (University of Amsterdam)
PDF of thesis uploaded from the Library digitised archive of EUI PhD theses completed between 2013 and 2017
An analysis of the extent to which the outcomes of the process of European monetary integration and, particularly, of the development of the debate over the establishment of EMU, have been influenced by domestic politics and by domestic economic interest groups in Italy and in the United Kingdom. From an empirical point of view, the work provides an account of the development of Italian and British socio-economic interest groups towards the issue of European monetary union from the making of the EMS until the establishment of EMU. Argues in favor of the rational behavior of foreign exchange rate commitments within a structural definition of the credibility of exchange rate commitments which links together economic and political science perspectives. Analysis is conducted on the cases of Italy and the UK and their experience in the exchange rate mechanism of the European monetary system. The period considered ranges from the decision of the two countries to peg their currencies in the ERM of the EMS to their departure on September 1992.