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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Economic and Monetary Union – European Union countries"
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Feldmeier, Gerhard. « German foreign trade surpluses – a problem for the European Monetary Union ? » International Journal Of Innovation And Economic Development 1, no 1 (2015) : 7–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.18775/ijied.1849-7551-7020.2015.11.2001.
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In the light of the controversial discussion on the cause and effects to the total economy of the high export surplus of one country and their consequences for other countries, the concrete question as to whether high German balance on current account surplus mentioned is indeed responsible, as alleged, for macroeconomic divergence in the European Union or for balance on current account deficits in other European countries will is addressed in this paper. We examine how and to what extent German export success represents a lasting threat to the stability of the Eurozone and impedes economic recovery in instable countries in the south, or whether it can even offer those countries better chances to overcome crisis and stabilise their economy. The study suggests that politically enforced shrinkage of German exports accompanied by a weakening of the German economy scarcely benefits deficit countries. Due to the very close intertwining of German industrial intermediate inputs import trade with European crisis partner countries, with their great demand for German investment goods exports, a decrease in German exports would not only cause a drop in their exports, but it would also whittle down the basis for public European financial help for handling crisis, help for which Germany provides a large proportion of the liability.
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Foden, David. « Trade union proposals towards EMU ». Transfer : European Review of Labour and Research 4, no 1 (février 1998) : 88–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/102425899800400110.
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This article provides an overview of the debate within the trade union movement on Europe's forthcoming economic and monetary union. It reviews the reasoning behind the ETUC's critical support for EMU and outlines the main issues in the trade union debate in ten European countries. It finds that the general political debate at national level has a significant influence on the discussion within the trade unions, and that the sector of the economy within which individual unions organise is also of relevance. Nevertheless, these specific concerns are placed within the framework of policy defined by the ETUC.
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Lane, Philip R. « The Real Effects of European Monetary Union ». Journal of Economic Perspectives 20, no 4 (1 août 2006) : 47–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.20.4.47.
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We explore the impact of European monetary union on the economies of the member countries. Inflation differentials across the euro area have been persistent, such that cumulative real exchange rate movements across the euro area have been quite substantial. The adoption of the euro has indeed contributed to greater economic integration; however, economic linkages with the rest of the world have also been growing strongly, such that the relative importance of trade within the European monetary union has not dramatically increased. In terms of future risks, a severe economic downturn or financial crisis in a member country will be the proving ground for the future political viability of the euro.
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Deng, Haoran, Tzuhan Lin, Zihao Ma et Yixi Wang. « The impact of European Monetary Union on different countries within the EU ». Highlights in Business, Economics and Management 2 (6 novembre 2022) : 255–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.54097/hbem.v2i.2371.
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The decision on the establishment of economic and Monetary Union will be regarded as a major event in the economic history of Europe. A stable European monetary structure will affect the future not only of the Member States of the Community, but also of the whole world. It is likely to serve as a guidepost for the economic policies of future members of the European Community, such as Austria, Sweden and Finland, as well as the emerging market economies of Central and Eastern Europe. These countries are looking forward to closer links with the European Community. Monetary union would also provide a currency for the European Community. The creation of economic and monetary union is a complex undertaking from both a technical and a political point of view. It requires a high degree of consistency between economic policy and performance. At the same time, it would greatly reduce the economic autonomy of participating countries. The traditional differences in the economic and monetary policies of the member states of the European Community also have different effects. Therefore, this paper mainly studies the influence of EMU on different EU countries by studying the EU's political ideology, historical and economic development, economic main body structure and cultures of different EU countries.
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Târlea, Silvana, Stefanie Bailer, Hanno Degner, Lisa M. Dellmuth, Dirk Leuffen, Magnus Lundgren, Jonas Tallberg et Fabio Wasserfallen. « Explaining governmental preferences on Economic and Monetary Union Reform ». European Union Politics 20, no 1 (8 janvier 2019) : 24–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1465116518814336.
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This article examines the extent to which economic or political factors shaped government preferences in the reform of the Economic Monetary Union. A multilevel analysis of European Union member governments’ preferences on 40 EMU reform issues negotiated between 2010 and 2015 suggests that countries’ financial sector exposure has significant explanatory power. Seeking to minimize the risk of costly bailouts, countries with highly exposed financial sectors were more likely to support solutions involving high degrees of European integration. In contrast, political factors had no systematic impact. These findings help to enhance our understanding of preference formation in the European Union and the viability of future EMU reform.
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Rehman, Scheherazade. « The Future of the European Union ». Global Economy Journal 15, no 2 (juillet 2015) : 213–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/gej-2015-0028.
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The European Union (EU) currently comprised of 28 countries is heralded as the single most ambitious voluntary supra-national economic, trade and monetary arrangement in recent modern history. The initial impetus of this arrangement began in 1951 with The Coal and Steel Union amongst Germany, France, Belgium, Luxemburg, Netherlands, and Italy and it continues to evolve today. The most ambitious part of this arrangement is the economic and monetary union (EMU) of 19 EU members countries called the Eurozone. This grand experiment has recently faced its biggest stress test with a double dip recession – the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2010+ European sovereign debt crisis. While many experts focused on the lack of fiscal union to resolve the Eurozone’s current problems, the issues are more complex. Systemic risk in Eurozone originates in part from three principal areas: political issues, lack of a fiscal discipline enforcement mechanism, and market failure.
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Milačić, Srećko, Zoran Simonović et Aleksandar Kostić. « European Monetary Union as a stabilizing factor in the circumstances of economic crisis ». Ekonomika 66, no 4 (2020) : 13–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/ekonomika2004013m.
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The authors examine the problems the European Monetary Union in the circumstances of the global economic crisis. They especially elaborated the battle for the financial stability of the European Monetary Union. The authors problematize the interaction of the European Central Bank and national central banks, emphasizing the deficiencies in the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy. They investigated the reasons that require a cautious strategy when it comes to the admission of new member states into the European Monetary Union and in that sense the conditions for nominal and real convergence. The authors consider the management of the economic crisis and the introduction of new institutions with the task to stabilize the situation in the monetary field. They explored the problems of helping countries like Greece from the point of view of the developed countries relationship. The authors especially paid attention to the level of transparency in relation to their citizens when making decisions on certain aid giving issues. They have proposed solutions for getting out of the vicious circle and the need to redesign the European Monetary Union and in this context the problem of the stabilization of the euro in order for it to be competitive with the dollar.
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Arestis, Philip, et Peter Phelps. « Inequality implications of European economic and monetary union membership : A reassessment ». Environment and Planning A : Economy and Space 50, no 7 (30 juillet 2018) : 1443–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0308518x18781082.
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A growing number of studies have concluded that the European economic and monetary union has exacerbated inequalities in income, wealth and society. Furthermore, the endogeneity of income inequality is now becoming recognised as an important part of the cost–benefit analysis of euro currency adoption. Yet the nature, significance and scale of different monetary (and market) integration channels in operation remain uncertain. In this contribution, we employ static and dynamic panel data methodologies to investigate the intra-national household inequality implications, both realised and expected over coming years. Our analysis reveals that the within-country inequality outcomes differ significantly for core and non-core country-groups in the European economic and monetary union, which have so far realised very different distributional costs and benefits from the integration process. These are crucial issues for policy-makers, not just for the European economic and monetary union member states, but for other countries as well, especially the European Union countries that are expected to adopt the euro currency in the future. This is so in terms of their attempts to look for, design and implement policies, which alleviate rather than exacerbate within-country inequality.
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Bąk, Henryk, et Sebastian Maciejewski. « Endogeneity and Specialization in the European Monetary Union ». International Journal of Management and Economics 46, no 1 (1 juin 2015) : 7–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ijme-2015-0020.
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Abstract There has been a broad discussion about the viability of the European Monetary Union (EMU) in its present and prospective confines. Generally, the EMU, consisting of 19 countries, is not considered an optimal currency area due to low labor market flexibility, autonomous fiscal policies, and structural differences among its members. Considerations about the endogeneity effect of currency unions lead to the question whether the EMU will become more viable over time. According to the endogenity hypothesis formulated by Frankel and Rose [1996, 2000], a common currency area may gradually become an optimal currency area at some future point (ex post unification), despite not having been an optimal currency area (OCA) prior to (ex ante) currency unification. Currency unification should bring about increased intra-industry trade and greater business cycle synchronization among member states. The most recent literature and analyses presented in this paper suggest that the endogenity effect in the EMU has been frail since its onset. While real convergence between EMU member states has not advanced, divergence in i.a. economic structures, national income and productivity levels is observed. The most important economic mechanisms reinforcing convergence and divergence among monetary union members are presented in this paper. Using recent data and related research results, we show a significant divergence in economic structures, business cycle synchronization and productivity levels among Eurozone members in the last decade. The Krugman sectorial dissimilarity index is applied to measure changes in industrial similarity among member countries and the Hodrick-Prescott filter to estimate business cycle synchronization in the EMU. These divergence tendencies have been strengthened by the global financial crisis of 2008 and persist, calling for reforms and new policies within the EMU.
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Matei, Elena Florentina, et Ioana Manuela Mindrican. « The Evolution of Nominal Convergence After Accession to The European Union. The Case of Romania ». European Journal of Sustainable Development 11, no 3 (1 octobre 2022) : 149. http://dx.doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2022.v11n3p149.
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Economic and Monetary Union is the result of progressive economic integration that includes collective regulation for the free movement of goods, services, labor, capital, and products. Economic and Monetary Union presupposes a common currency and market, but also a monetary policy coordinated by the European Central Bank, which has the role of ensuring economic stability. In this context, the countries wishing to join must be prepared to deal with possible economic imbalances, this being possible through the existence of a high level of economic development. Through this paper, we want to identify the evolution of the nominal convergence criteria established by the provisions of the Maastricht Treaty to identify the level of readiness of the Romanian economy for integration into the Economic and Monetary Union.
Thèses sur le sujet "Economic and Monetary Union – European Union countries"
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Mavrikiou, Petros Andreas. « Aspects of European economic integration : the single market and the single currency ». Thesis, McGill University, 1995. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=23724.
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This paper considers two major issues in the evolution of the European Union, the Single Market and the Single Currency. The first chapter deals with the projected effects of the 1992 Programme, and the second chapter deals with the collapse of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System and examines the prospects for European Monetary Union given this collapse. The third chapter revolves around the concept of Central Banking under Monetary Union and focuses on the European Monetary Institute and the European System of Central Banks. Chapter four presents data regarding the progress of the European Union towards the target of the Single Currency, as well as other macroeconomic indicators.
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Gérard, Marc. « Economic catching-up and monetary integration of Central and Eastern European countries ». Thesis, Paris 10, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011PA100021.
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Cette thèse s’intéresse au défi que représente le rattrapage des niveaux de prix pour la stabilité macroéconomique des pays en transition d’Europe centrale et orientale, dans la perspective de leur future participation à la zone euro. A cet égard, une modélisation du taux de change réel d’équilibre suggère que l’appréciation réelle liée au rattrapage économique recouvre des évolutions de prix relatifs différentes suivant les régimes de change, dont témoignent des trajectoires d’endettement extérieur contrastées. Dans les économies en changes flexibles, la hausse du taux de change nominal favorise une appréciation endogène des termes de l’échange à moyen terme, en orientant les investissements directs étrangers et la réalisation des gains de productivité vers le secteur exposé de l’économie, ce qui se traduit par une appréciation du taux de change réel d’équilibre et une amélioration des comptes extérieurs. Dans les économies en changes fixes, les effets de valorisation liés à la hausse des prix relatifs domestiques tendent à orienter les investissements vers le secteur abrité de l’économie, entraînant une érosion de la compétitivité extérieure, dont témoigne le gonflement de la dette externe. Par ailleurs, l’intégration monétaire comporte des risques spécifiques pour la stabilité macroéconomique des économies en rattrapage, dans la mesure où elle s’accompagne d’un processus marqué de convergence des conditions de financement entre Etats membres, dès lors que la perspective de l’adhésion à l’espace monétaire commun devient crédible. Un modèle dynamique à anticipations rationnelles permet de montrer que face au choc de demande lié à une telle convergence financière, l’appréciation du taux de change nominal se révèle cruciale pour limiter la surchauffe de l’économie. A l’inverse, dans les économies en régime de change fixe, l’abaissement des primes de risque pays est susceptible de provoquer une montée de l’endettement extérieur, suivi d’enchaînements déflationnistes une fois dans l’union monétaireThis research investigates the challenges of price level catching-up for macroeconomic stability in Central and Eastern European transition countries seeking to enter the Euro area. In this respect, an equilibrium real exchange rate model suggests that the process of real appreciation observed along economic catching-up in these countries can be ascribed to different relative price developments, depending on the exchange rate regime, as exemplified by contrasted external debt trajectories. In flexible exchange rate economies, the increase in the nominal exchange rate fosters an endogenous appreciation of the terms of trade in the medium run, by channelling foreign direct investment and associated productivity gains to the exposed sector of the economy, thus appreciating the equilibrium real exchange rate and strengthening the current account over time. In fixed exchange rate economies, positive valuation effects associated with the increase in domestic relative prices tend to divert investment to the sheltered sector, thus undermining external competitiveness and bringing about higher external debt. Furthermore, monetary integration entails specific risks for macroeconomic stability in catching-up economies, because it implies a process of rapid convergence in the financing conditions across member States, which takes place as soon as the perspective of accession to the common monetary area appears credible. A dynamic, rational expectations model shows that the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate becomes crucial to curtail the economic overheating triggered by the demand shock associated with financial convergence. By contrast, diminishing country risk premia under fixed exchange rate regimes are likely to cause ‘boom bust’ cycles, with an increase in external indebtedness followed by deflationary developments once in the monetary union
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TESCHE, Tobias. « Institutional responses to the euro area crisis ». Doctoral thesis, European University Institute, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/62526.
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Defence date: 13 May 2019Examining Board: Prof. Philipp Genschel, European University Institute; Prof. Adrienne Héritier, European University Institute; Prof. C. Randall Henning, American University Washington D.C.; Prof. Manuela Moschella, Scuola Normale Superiore
This article-based dissertation traces the institutional responses to the euro area crisis in the realm of fiscal and financial governance. First, it shows why the diffusion of national fiscal councils in the EU has not led to institutional isomorphism. The troika institutions - the European Commission, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund - formed a technocratic consensus about the desirability of establishing national fiscal councils in the EU. Considerable disagreement existed, however, with regards to their design features. Each institution promoted a distinct fiscal council model in line with their institutional self-interest. Preference heterogeneity among the troika members ultimately prevented the spread of a one-size-fits-all fiscal council in the EU. Second, this thesis links three models of a fiscal council (agent, trustee and orchestrator) to three different sources of the deficit bias (i.e. forecasting errors, common pool problem, asymmetric information) and three different conceptions of legitimacy (input, output, throughput). Third, it explains why the ECB President started to visit national parliaments. The ECB’s unconventional monetary policy measures triggered unprecedented levels of public distrust, invigorated a fierce debate about central bank independence and led to deteriorating output legitimacy. Given the diverging demands from creditor and debtor states, the ECB saw an opportunity to reduce the audience costs of their policies by directly targeting national parliaments. Fourth, it shows how large cross-border banks stood to gain from the banking union because it would level the playing field, create regulatory savings and ultimately encroach on the business model of the smaller competitors that had, thus far, been shielded from competition through favorable regulation. Fifth, it discusses the European Stability Mechanism, the ECB, the proposed European Minister of Economics and Finance and the European Fiscal Board and relates them to strategies that supranational actors can pursue to deepen European integration.
Chapter 2 draws upon an earlier article published in the JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies. Chapter 3 draws upon an earlier article published in the Journal of Contemporary European Research (JCER). Chapter 4 draws upon an earlier article published in the Journal of European Integration. Chapter 5 draws upon an earlier paper published in the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Research Paper Series. Chapter 6 draws upon an earlier paper published in the CERiM Online Paper Series.
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Kar, Anirban. « Is the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) detrimental to the Euro-area firms' performance ? » Thesis, Lethbridge, Alta. : University of Lethbridge, Faculty of Management, c2012, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10133/3361.
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This thesis provides new insight into the EMU’s impact on the Euro-area firms’ performance, by examining the firms’ accounting rates of return and financial cash flows. The impact is evaluated separately for the EMU formation and the physical Euro adoption, and over different time horizons. The existing literature does not directly examine these issues.
This study uses the regression model of the difference-in-differences approach to examine 121 Euro-area and North American firms, covering 14 sectors, over the period from 1992 to 2008.
The results indicate a positive impact of the EMU on the firms’ financial cash flows, especially after the Euro adoption, which support the related literature. However, the accounting rates of return suggest a mostly negative impact. The magnitude of the impacts declines over time. The results are robust with respect to GDP as a control variable. The study also reports the EMU’s impact on 4 major industrial sectors.viii, 68 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm
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Schwarzer, Daniela. « Fiscal policy co-ordination in the European Monetary Union : a preference-based explanation of institutional change / ». Baden-Baden : Nomos, 2007. http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/fy0714/2007398303.html.
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Fuss, Catherine. « Contributions to the empirical analysis of convergence in the European Union ». Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/212156.
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O'Malley, Terence T. « The impact of participation in the European monetary union of the abnormal returns to U.S. target companies acquaired by European firms ». Honors in the Major Thesis, University of Central Florida, 2002. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETH/id/291.
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This item is only available in print in the UCF Libraries. If this is your Honors Thesis, you can help us make it available online for use by researchers around the world by following the instructions on the distribution consent form at http://library.ucf.edu/Systems/DigitalInitiatives/DigitalCollections/InternetDistributionConsentAgreementForm.pdf You may also contact the project coordinator, Kerri Bottorff, at kerri.bottorff@ucf.edu for more information.Bachelors
Business Administration
Finance
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Hung, Cheung Tai. « The impacts of euroization on trade and FDI on the Euro area ». HKBU Institutional Repository, 2003. http://repository.hkbu.edu.hk/etd_ra/474.
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Fox, Timothy William. « Euros, pounds and Albion at arms : European monetary policy and British defense in the 21st century ». Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2004. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/04Sep%5FFox.pdf.
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Seiter, Corina. « Vergleich historischer Währungsunionen und Zentralbankensysteme als Lehrstück für die Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion / ». Berlin : Dissertation.de, 2002. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=009800656&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.
Texte intégralLivres sur le sujet "Economic and Monetary Union – European Union countries"
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Scobie, H. M. European Monetary Union. London : Taylor & Francis Group Plc, 2004.
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Economics of monetary union. 8e éd. Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2009.
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Harold, James. Making the European monetary union. Cambridge, MA : Harvard University Press, 2012.
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Petri, Minkkinen, et Patomäki Heikki, dir. The politics of economic and monetary union. Boston : Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1997.
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Gavin, McCrone, David Hume Institute et Bank of Scotland Colloquium, dir. European monetary union and regional development. Edinburgh : Edinburgh University Press, 1997.
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Economics of monetary union. 7e éd. New York : Oxford University Press, 2007.
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G, Hall S., Heilemann Ullrich et Pauly Peter, dir. Macroeconometric models and European Monetary Union. Berlin : Duncker & Humblot, 2004.
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de, Grauwe Paul, et Lavrač Vladimir, dir. Inclusion of Central European countries in the European Monetary Union. Boston, Mass : Kluwer Academic, 1999.
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Szász, André. The road to European monetary union. New York : St. Martin's Press, 1999.
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Rehman, Scheherazade S. The path to European economic and monetary union. Boston : Kluwer, 1997.
Trouver le texte intégralChapitres de livres sur le sujet "Economic and Monetary Union – European Union countries"
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Kočenda, Evžen, Ali M. Kutan et Taner M. Yigit. « Fiscal Convergence in Monetary Union : are the New Member Countries Better Disciplined than Eurozone Members ? » Dans The Economic Performance of the European Union, 107–30. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-230-30543-4_6.
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Ribnikar, Ivan. « Monetary Arrangements and Exchange Rate Regime in a Small Transitional Economy (Slovenia) ». Dans Inclusion of Central European Countries in the European Monetary Union, 183–218. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5073-0_9.
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Brosig, Magnus, et Karl Hinrichs. « The “Great Recession” and Pension Policy Change in European Countries ». Dans International Impacts on Social Policy, 385–98. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86645-7_30.
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AbstractIn the wake of the “Great Recession” and its severe fiscal implications, many European countries enacted significant pension reforms aimed at reducing public spending and limiting contribution rates. Unlike most changes carried out before, they were implemented swiftly and without building a broad political and social consensus, usually being suggested or even mandated by inter- and supranational organisations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the European Union (EU). While some of these cuts were at least partly revoked during the following years of economic recovery, European welfare states still tend to face lower “pension burdens” in the upcoming decades than had been expected during the 2000s. Financial sustainability, however, puts adequacy at risk for present and future retirees, many of whom no longer achieve sufficient working careers anyway.
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Szász, André. « Economic Union ». Dans The Road to European Monetary Union, 154–64. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230599475_17.
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Chang, Michele. « Economic and Monetary Union ». Dans European Union Enlargement, 184–98. London : Macmillan Education UK, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-137-08143-8_13.
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Panić, M. « Postscript : A Comparison of EC and Gold Standard Countries ». Dans European Monetary Union, 133–59. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-13452-6_6.
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El-Agraa, Ali M. « Economic and Monetary Union ». Dans The European Union Illuminated, 171–230. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137533654_7.
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Schmiegelow, Michèle. « Doctrinal Amendments for a Functional EMU ? A Few Reminiscences of Economic History ». Dans European Monetary Union, 419–26. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-59039-9_12.
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Hix, Simon, et Bjørn Høyland. « Economic and Monetary Union ». Dans The Political System of the European Union, 245–72. London : Macmillan Education UK, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-230-34418-1_10.
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Hix, Simon. « Economic and Monetary Union ». Dans The Political System of the European Union, 278–306. London : Macmillan Education UK, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-27531-1_10.
Texte intégralActes de conférences sur le sujet "Economic and Monetary Union – European Union countries"
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Polouček, Stanislav. « Credit Behaviour of Banks in the European Union in the Wake of Global Economic Crisis ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c01.00221.
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Recent financial crises hit many countries. The impact on Visegrad countries in credit area was not damaging. The main reason was stability and soundness of financial (banking) sectors in these countries and an adequate response of central banks as well as flexible management of commercial banks. Commercial banks, usually daughter companies of western banks, used above all domestic deposits for financing credits. This played a key role in credit area and helped to keep the financial system stable. It is important to underpin that responses to the crisis have been rather heterogeneous in central European countries and there are quite big disparities among Visegrad countries, too. In the paper developments and responses of the commercial banks to the crisis and their stability have been discussed on the basis of deposits, loans of monetary financial institutions to the non-financial sector, households, governments, lending for house purchase and credit for consumption in several EU countries. Net position of banks vis-á-vis foreign banks is taken into account, too.
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Milea, Camelia. « Some directions of action in the management of public debt meant to minimize the risks of a debt crisis in Romania ». Dans 4th Economic International Conference "Competitiveness and Sustainable Development". Technical University of Moldova, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.52326/csd2022.39.
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In the article, the author aims to highlight some directions of action in the management of the public debt meant to minimize the risks of the outburst of a debt crisis in Romania, in the domestic and international context. The analysis shows that the evolution of Romania's total public debt in the period 2015-2019 is positive, in the sense of improved sustainability. The economic literature suggests that there are two conditions whose implementation could prevent a financial and a debt crisis from occurring (an early warning system and a regulatory scheme with "teeth"). Comparing the fiscal policy in Japan and Greece, the author presents some features for minimizing the risks of a debt crisis and shows that the rules of fiscal policy change fundamentally when a country becomes a member of a monetary union. Starting from the main economic problems of Romania and from the experience of the public debt crises in some countries of the European Union, there are made proposals for actions aimed at leading to the minimization of the risks of a debt crisis in Romania. The methodology used consists in comparative and descriptive analyses, drawing of conclusions and literature review.
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Saruç, Naci Tolga, et Candan Yılmaz. « Austerity Policies in Debt Crisis : The Limits of Success ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c07.01680.
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Global financial crisis, emerged in 2008 and deepening thoroughly in 2008, revealed deep cracks in European Union countries –especially peripheral countries. The member of peripheral countries implemented European Union monetary policy have adopted low-cost borrowing as a public income. On the one hand, the global crisis has decreased the amount of funds in the international arena and led to an increase in borrowing costs. On the other hand, those peripheral countries with austerity policies imposed by the Troika faced with the problem of debt.
The global crisis, appeared in the US and in a short time affected many countries gave rise to the debt crisis in the EU. The aim of this study is to demonstrate theoretically effects of the global crisis on peripheral countries of the EU. Furthermore, it is to analyze how the EU debt crisis considered the second phase of global crisis developed in member states and what kind of measures was taken for crisis. Eurostat database from 2006 to 2015 are used.
EU members met the global financial crisis with high debt have increased in public expenditure in order to mitigate the effects of crisis. In addition to this, member states are deprived from tax income because of using strict austerity policies. In conclusion, it is shown that the austerity policies imposed by EU caused to increased further public debt stock in the member states and it left peripheral members the debt impasse.
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Gencer, Ayşen Hiç, et Özlen Hiç. « A.Smith and the Classical School, K.Marx and the Marxist Socialism, J.M.Keynes and the Keynesian Revolution and the Subsequent Developments ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.01166.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Adam Smith is known as the founder of economics as a social science and also of economic liberalism (or termed as capitalism after Karl Marx) based on principles of non-intervention and non-protection by the governments to perfectly competitive markets. Over time, economic theory and resulting economic regime evolved: Interventions to improve the welfare of workers; infant-industry argument for limited trade protection; and most importantly, following the 1929 Great Depression, John Maynard Keynes and his macroeconomic system giving rise to less-than-full- employment equilibrium, hence the need for macro-economic level state interventions by means of monetary and fiscal policies. Evidently, liberal economic regime was modified but remained in essence; hence, it proved to be flexible and resilient. On the other hand, Marxist socialism, the doctrinaire challenge to capitalism, had virtually collapsed in the 1990's. The move of even the developing countries towards outward orientation and market economy at the national level is in line with Adam Smith's views; so is the establishment of the European Union and the like at the regional level, as well as the more recent move towards globalisation.
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Nazlıoğlu, Şaban, Çağın Karul, Ahmet Koncak et İlhan Küçükkaplan. « On The Purchasing Power Parity in Turkey : The Role of Structural Changes ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c09.02008.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Turkey as an emerging country and one of the fastest growing economies during the last decade has been implementing the trade-oriented growth model since 1980. The exchange rate policy in that respect is at the center of trade and monetary policies. Given the importance of constructing fundamental equilibrium exchange rates, the long-run PPP hypothesis has been empirically investigated during the last decade. We re-examine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Turkey with her ten major trading partners and find out that when the structural shifts are taken into account, there is a strong evidence in favor of the validity of PPP hypothesis. An interesting finding also is that the PPP hypothesis seems to hold for the European Union countries.
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CHIRESCU, Alexandra Diana. « USING RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANG ». Dans Competitiveness of Agro-Food and Environmental Economy. Editura ASE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.24818/cafee/2021/10/04.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The aim of this paper is to document the interest in the research area regarding renewable energy sources, as a sustainable way of adapting to climate change. The study seeks to present a comparison between the alternative energy and the conventional energy and the impact on the mitigation of climate change. Moreover, by analyzing the key factors that characterize the energy sector from Romania and the European Union, the current situation is highlighted and the study could contribute to knowledge development or solving practical issues. Taking into consideration the interdependence between economic growth and energy consumption, stable access to electricity is of political, technical and monetary interest to both developed and developing countries. In this context, green energy sources can contribute, along with other means, to achieving a greener and more environmentally friendly society. For the literature review it was used the VOSViewer software that analyzes the bibliometric links between countries and authors. It can be stated that the highest production from green sources in Romania is obtained with the help of hydropower plants. However, wind and solar energy play an important role in the national energy structure.
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Gündoğdu Odabaşıoğlu, Fatma. « Path to the Common Monetary Authority : An Assessment on Banking Sector of the Eurasian Economic Union Countries during the Economic Integration Proces ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01269.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Monetary union is one of the advanced stages of international economic integration and involves shared monetary and exchange rate policies that are executed collectively across union members. This common policy warrants price stability and requires a common supranational monetary authority. Existence of an established banking sector is crucial for effective execution of policy decisions taken by said monetary authorities. Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is officially established on January 1st of 2015 and is an example for a regional economic integration. Aim of the Union, which is comprised of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Republic of Armenia; is to increase collaboration among economies, to improve the living standards of the participating nations and to promote stable development.
This study is based on assessment banking industries of member countries, working towards common monetary authority during the transition to EAEU economic integration between years 1995 and 2014. Data acquired from World Bank and member countries' central banks is used to determine the capabilities and limitations of partaking economies based on generally accepted financial strength indicators.
In conclusion; Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan are observed to be the principal EAEU members due to their advanced and strong banking industries. Increasing fragilities over the years, amplified also by developments in global markets, are evident in member countries; especially in Belarus and Armenia. Significance of achieving price stability in founding country Russian Federation is emphasized for successfully establishing a common monetary authority.
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Başeğmez, Nergiz, et Kerem Toker. « A Crossroad For Turkey : European Union Or Eurasian Economic Union ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c07.01668.
Texte intégralRésumé :
With a long and complicated history with Turkey's EU relations began in 1963 with Ankara Agreement. Turkey has been engaged the full membership since 2005 but nevertheless it could not have achieved results during the negotiations. Behind the slow pace of Turkey's membership, many political and cultural barriers can be shown. The events showed that reveals Turkey cannot be an EU member as soon as possible. This case may cause the Turkey have different pursuits in the political world arena. Turkey moved away from the EU, it can be motivated to participate in different political and economic union at the same time. Because, the world is constantly changing in terms of economic and political conditions and Turkey is hard to question the position in these new conditions. Founded in 2015 Eurasian Union has similar cultural and historical heritage alongside the geographical closely EAEU with Turkey. This common history may create opportunities for both sides. In this study, economic, social and political relations between Turkey and the EAEU countries are briefly discussed. Datas about this issue were gathered by Eurostat, europa.eu, wto.org and eurasiancommission.org etc. official data sources. The findings were compared with similar indicators between Turkey and the EU. So the EAEU is evaluated likely to be an alternative political and economic union to Turkey. Such a vision changes in Turkey will revise its economic and political stability of the region. This paper may contribute to further studies by providing a solid base.
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Borychowski, Michał, et Sebastian Stępień. « Ecological Policy in the Selected Countries of the European Union ». Dans Hradec Economic Days 2019, sous la direction de Petra Maresova, Pavel Jedlicka et Ivan Soukal. University of Hradec Kralove, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.36689/uhk/hed/2019-01-008.
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Kuznetsova, Alfiya, Libuše Svobodová et Martina Hedvicakova. « Consequences of Forced Migration in the Countries of the European Union ». Dans Hradec Economic Days 2020, sous la direction de Petra Maresova, Pavel Jedlicka, Krzysztof Firlej et Ivan Soukal. University of Hradec Kralove, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.36689/uhk/hed/2020-01-049.
Texte intégralRapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Economic and Monetary Union – European Union countries"
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Feldstein, Martin. The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union : Political Sources of an Economic Liability. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, février 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w6150.
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Barradas, Ricardo. Why has labour productivity slowed down in the era of financialisation ? Insights from the post-Keynesians for the European Union countries. DINÂMIA'CET-Iscte, mai 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.15847/dinamiacet-iul.wp.2022.03.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This paper employs a panel data econometric approach in order to empirically ascertain the role of the phenomenon of financialisation in the deceleration of labour productivity in the European Union (EU) countries from 1980 to 2019. During that time, the EU countries suffered a huge structural transformation based on Reaganomics and Thatcherism and their financial systems have experienced strong liberalisation and deregulation, which have contributed to poor evolution of labour productivity and have revived fears around a new ‘secular stagnation’ in the era of financialisation. Grounded in post-Keynesian literature, the slowdown of labour productivity in the majority of developed economies in the last decades cannot be separated from the phenomenon of financialisation, which has occurred through four different channels, namely the weak economic performance, the decline in the labour income share, the increase in personal income inequality, and strengthening of the degree of financialisation. Our findings confirm that lagged labour productivity, economic performance, and labour income share have a positive impact on labour productivity in the EU countries, while personal income inequality and the degree of financialisation impact it negatively. Our findings also reveal that labour productivity in the EU countries in the last decades would have grown more if there had been a stronger economic performance, a smaller decline (or even a rise) of the labour income share, a smaller increase (or even a decrease) of personal income inequality, and a weakening of the degree of financialisation.
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Fairlie, Alan. New challenges for the European Union's Multiparty Trade Agreement with Peru, Colombia and Ecuador. Fundación Carolina, février 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.33960/issn-e.1885-9119.dtff02en.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This document analyses the trade and cooperation relations between the European Union and the Andean countries with which the Multiparty Trade Agreement was signed (Peru, Ecuador and Colombia). It also examines the progress and challenges in terms of the sustainable development agenda, political dialogue and cooperation within the framework of the agreement. From there, it explores the different technical difficulties that have arisen in the implementation of the agreement and the role of the monitoring bodies. The aim is to study the strategic importance of the agreement in relations between the European Union and Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, and its contribution to the post-pandemic economic recovery and the promotion of new development models.
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Kostarakos, Ilias, et Petros Varthalitis. Effective tax rates in Ireland. ESRI, novembre 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.26504/rs110.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This article provides estimates of the effective tax rates in Ireland for the 1995-2017 period. We use these aggregate tax indicators to compare the developments in the Irish tax policy mix with the rest of the European Union countries and investigate any potential relation with Ireland’s macroeconomic performance. Our findings show that distortionary taxes, e.g. on factors of production, are significantly lower while less distortionary taxes, e.g. on consumption, are higher in Ireland than most European countries. Thus, the distribution of tax burden falls relatively more on consumption and to a lesser extent on labour than capital; while in the EU average the norm is the opposite. The descriptive analysis indicates that this shift in the Irish tax policy mix is correlated with the country’s strong economic performance.
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Martin, Matthew. The Crisis of Extreme Inequality in SADC : Fighting austerity and the pandemic. Oxfam, Development Finance International, Norwegian Church Aid, mai 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21201/2022.8793.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the extreme inequality in Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, and pushed millions into poverty. The economic crisis continues due to the obscene global vaccine inequality. As of end March 2022, a dismal 14% of SADC citizens had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, compared with 65.5% in the United States and 73% in the European Union. In 2021, with infections rising in SADC, the critical health, social protection and economic programmes put in place by most governments in 2020 were rolled back and replaced with austerity, in the context of growing debt burdens and lack of external support for country budgets. Such austerity has been built into IMF programmes in the region. Recovering from the pandemic, however, offers SADC governments a once-in-a-generation opportunity to do what their citizens want: increase taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, boost public spending (especially on healthcare, education and social protection), and increase workers’ rights as well as tackling joblessness and precarious work. With external support, including through debt relief and aid, they could reduce inequality drastically and eliminate extreme poverty by 2030.
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Martin, Matthew. The Crisis of Extreme Inequality in SADC : Fighting austerity and the pandemic. Oxfam, Development Finance International, Norwegian Church Aid, mai 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21201/2022.8793.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the extreme inequality in Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, and pushed millions into poverty. The economic crisis continues due to the obscene global vaccine inequality. As of end March 2022, a dismal 14% of SADC citizens had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, compared with 65.5% in the United States and 73% in the European Union. In 2021, with infections rising in SADC, the critical health, social protection and economic programmes put in place by most governments in 2020 were rolled back and replaced with austerity, in the context of growing debt burdens and lack of external support for country budgets. Such austerity has been built into IMF programmes in the region. Recovering from the pandemic, however, offers SADC governments a once-in-a-generation opportunity to do what their citizens want: increase taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, boost public spending (especially on healthcare, education and social protection), and increase workers’ rights as well as tackling joblessness and precarious work. With external support, including through debt relief and aid, they could reduce inequality drastically and eliminate extreme poverty by 2030.
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Bourrier, Mathilde, Michael Deml et Farnaz Mahdavian. Comparative report of the COVID-19 Pandemic Responses in Norway, Sweden, Germany, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. University of Stavanger, novembre 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.31265/usps.254.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The purpose of this report is to compare the risk communication strategies and public health mitigation measures implemented by Germany, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom (UK) in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic based on publicly available documents. The report compares the country responses both in relation to one another and to the recommendations and guidance of the World Health Organization where available. The comparative report is an output of Work Package 1 from the research project PAN-FIGHT (Fighting pandemics with enhanced risk communication: Messages, compliance and vulnerability during the COVID-19 outbreak), which is financially supported by the Norwegian Research Council's extraordinary programme for corona research. PAN-FIGHT adopts a comparative approach which follows a “most different systems” variation as a logic of comparison guiding the research (Przeworski & Teune, 1970). The countries in this study include two EU member States (Sweden, Germany), one which was engaged in an exit process from the EU membership (the UK), and two non-European Union states, but both members of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA): Norway and Switzerland. Furthermore, Germany and Switzerland govern by the Continental European Federal administrative model, with a relatively weak central bureaucracy and strong subnational, decentralised institutions. Norway and Sweden adhere to the Scandinavian model—a unitary but fairly decentralised system with power bestowed to the local authorities. The United Kingdom applies the Anglo-Saxon model, characterized by New Public Management (NPM) and decentralised managerial practices (Einhorn & Logue, 2003; Kuhlmann & Wollmann, 2014; Petridou et al., 2019). In total, PAN-FIGHT is comprised of 5 Work Packages (WPs), which are research-, recommendation-, and practice-oriented. The WPs seek to respond to the following research questions and accomplish the following: WP1: What are the characteristics of governmental and public health authorities’ risk communication strategies in five European countries, both in comparison to each other and in relation to the official strategies proposed by WHO? WP2: To what extent and how does the general public’s understanding, induced by national risk communication, vary across five countries, in relation to factors such as social capital, age, gender, socio-economic status and household composition? WP3: Based on data generated in WP1 and WP2, what is the significance of being male or female in terms of individual susceptibility to risk communication and subsequent vulnerability during the COVID-19 outbreak? WP4: Based on insight and knowledge generated in WPs 1 and 2, what recommendations can we offer national and local governments and health institutions on enhancing their risk communication strategies to curb pandemic outbreaks? WP5: Enhance health risk communication strategies across five European countries based upon the knowledge and recommendations generated by WPs 1-4. Pre-pandemic preparedness characteristics All five countries had pandemic plans developed prior to 2020, which generally were specific to influenza pandemics but not to coronaviruses. All plans had been updated following the H1N1 pandemic (2009-2010). During the SARS (2003) and MERS (2012) outbreaks, both of which are coronaviruses, all five countries experienced few cases, with notably smaller impacts than the H1N1 epidemic (2009-2010). The UK had conducted several exercises (Exercise Cygnet in 2016, Exercise Cygnus in 2016, and Exercise Iris in 2018) to check their preparedness plans; the reports from these exercises concluded that there were gaps in preparedness for epidemic outbreaks. Germany also simulated an influenza pandemic exercise in 2007 called LÜKEX 07, to train cross-state and cross-department crisis management (Bundesanstalt Technisches Hilfswerk, 2007). In 2017 within the context of the G20, Germany ran a health emergency simulation exercise with WHO and World Bank representatives to prepare for potential future pandemics (Federal Ministry of Health et al., 2017). Prior to COVID-19, only the UK had expert groups, notably the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), that was tasked with providing advice during emergencies. It had been used in previous emergency events (not exclusively limited to health). In contrast, none of the other countries had a similar expert advisory group in place prior to the pandemic. COVID-19 waves in 2020 All five countries experienced two waves of infection in 2020. The first wave occurred during the first half of the year and peaked after March 2020. The second wave arrived during the final quarter. Norway consistently had the lowest number of SARS-CoV-2 infections per million. Germany’s counts were neither the lowest nor the highest. Sweden, Switzerland and the UK alternated in having the highest numbers per million throughout 2020. Implementation of measures to control the spread of infection In Germany, Switzerland and the UK, health policy is the responsibility of regional states, (Länders, cantons and nations, respectively). However, there was a strong initial centralized response in all five countries to mitigate the spread of infection. Later on, country responses varied in the degree to which they were centralized or decentralized. Risk communication In all countries, a large variety of communication channels were used (press briefings, websites, social media, interviews). Digital communication channels were used extensively. Artificial intelligence was used, for example chatbots and decision support systems. Dashboards were used to provide access to and communicate data.
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Jones, Emily, Beatriz Kira, Anna Sands et Danilo B. Garrido Alves. The UK and Digital Trade : Which way forward ? Blavatnik School of Government, février 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35489/bsg-wp-2021/038.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The internet and digital technologies are upending global trade. Industries and supply chains are being transformed, and the movement of data across borders is now central to the operation of the global economy. Provisions in trade agreements address many aspects of the digital economy – from cross-border data flows, to the protection of citizens’ personal data, and the regulation of the internet and new technologies like artificial intelligence and algorithmic decision-making. The UK government has identified digital trade as a priority in its Global Britain strategy and one of the main sources of economic growth to recover from the pandemic. It wants the UK to play a leading role in setting the international standards and regulations that govern the global digital economy. The regulation of digital trade is a fast-evolving and contentious issue, and the US, European Union (EU), and China have adopted different approaches. Now that the UK has left the EU, it will need to navigate across multiple and often conflicting digital realms. The UK needs to decide which policy objectives it will prioritise, how to regulate the digital economy domestically, and how best to achieve its priorities when negotiating international trade agreements. There is an urgent need to develop a robust, evidence-based approach to the UK’s digital trade strategy that takes into account the perspectives of businesses, workers, and citizens, as well as the approaches of other countries in the global economy. This working paper aims to inform UK policy debates by assessing the state of play in digital trade globally. The authors present a detailed analysis of five policy areas that are central to discussions on digital trade for the UK: cross-border data flows and privacy; internet access and content regulation; intellectual property and innovation; e-commerce (including trade facilitation and consumer protection); and taxation (customs duties on e-commerce and digital services taxes). In each of these areas the authors compare and contrast the approaches taken by the US, EU and China, discuss the public policy implications, and examine the choices facing the UK.
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Monetary Policy Report - July 2022. Banco de la República, octobre 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3-2022.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias
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Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean 2021. Inter-American Development Bank, avril 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003235.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This report compiles comparable tax revenue statistics over the period 1990-2019 for 27 Latin American and Caribbean economies. Based on the OECD Revenue Statistics database, it applies the OECD methodology to countries in Latin America and the Caribbean to enable comparison of tax levels and tax structures on a consistent basis, both among the economies of the region and with other economies. This publication is jointly undertaken by the OECD Centre for Tax Policy and Administration, the OECD Development Centre, the Inter-American Center of Tax Administrations (CIAT), the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). The 2021 edition is produced with the support of the EU Regional Facility for Development in Transition for Latin America and the Caribbean, which results from joint work led by the European Union, the OECD and its Development Centre, and ECLAC.