Thèses sur le sujet « Economic and Monetary Union – Economic aspects »

This paper considers two major issues in the evolution of the European Union, the Single Market and the Single Currency. The first chapter deals with the projected effects of the 1992 Programme, and the second chapter deals with the collapse of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System and examines the prospects for European Monetary Union given this collapse. The third chapter revolves around the concept of Central Banking under Monetary Union and focuses on the European Monetary Institute and the European System of Central Banks. Chapter four presents data regarding the progress of the European Union towards the target of the Single Currency, as well as other macroeconomic indicators.

Der Zweck dieser Arbeit ist es, die Beziehung zwischen die Größe des Landes und das Wachstum auf internationaler Ebene und vergleichsweise in der Wirtschafts-und Währungsunion zu untersuchen und erarbeiten ihre Folgen für das Verhalten der wachstumsorientierte Finanzpolitik. Um ein globales Verständnis des Zusammenhangs zwischen Größe des Landes und das Wachstum in der EWU weiter verfolgen wir einen interdisziplinären Ansatz, einschließlich der makroökonomischen Modellierung (DSGE), Ökonometrie und Analyse der politischen Ökonomie. Die Kombination dieser Untersuchungen schließen wir, dass die Größe des Landes einen Einfluss auf die wirtschaftlichen Strukturen der Nationen, die Auswirkungen ihrer Politik und damit auf ihre Wachstumsdynamik hat. Aus diesem Grund ist es notwendig, die Bedeutung der Größe des Landes und ihre Folgen für die WWU wieder.
The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the relationship between country size and growth at the international level and comparatively in the Economic and Monetary Union, and to draw up its consequences for the conduct of growth-orientated fiscal policies. To further a global understanding of the link between country size and growth in the EMU, we follow an interdisciplinary approach, including macro-economic modelling (DSGE), econometrics and political economy analysis. Combining these analyses, we conclude that country size has an incidence on the economic structures of nations, the effects of their policies and therefore on their pace of growth. For this reason there is a need to reinstate the importance of country size and its consequences for the EMU.

La formation d'une union monétaire prive les États membres de l'utilisation unilatérale de l'outil monétaire. Dès lors, une orientation efficace des politiques économiques s'impose à travers (i) une hiérarchisation des cibles macroéconomiques, (ii) une identification des instruments appropriés et (iii) une mise en œuvre adaptée. Cette thèse fournit des réponses à cette orientation afin d'assurer une plus grande efficacité des politiques économiques à travers une analyse théorique et empirique appliquée au cas de l'UEMOA qui constitue un laboratoire exemplaire d'analyse des problématiques économiques en union monétaire
The creation of a monetary union deprives the member States of the unilateral use of the monetary instrument. Therefore, an effective orientation of economic policies is required through (i) a hierarchy of macroeconomic targets, (ii) identification of appropriate instruments, and (iii) appropriate implementation. This PhD thesis provides answers to this orientation in order to ensure greater effectiveness of economic policies through a theoretical and empirical analysis applied to the case of the WAEMU which constitutes a singular analytical laboratory through which to study the economic policy of a monetary union

This research aims to investigate possible consequences of the adoption of a single monetary policy for five European housing markets. It brings together comparative housing research and research on optimum currency areas. The research addresses two issues. First, it assesses whether real house price cycles will become synchronised following the convergence in nominal interest rates. Secondly, it explores the implications of stability in nominal interest rates and low inflation in the Euro-zone for the stability of real house prices in the member-countries. The existing members of the European Union are grouped according to characteristics of the transmission mechanism by which changes in interest rates translate into changes in house prices. These elements comprise monetary policy developments (i.e. the level and volatility of interest rates), type (i.e. fixed or variable) of mortgage rates, house price movements (i.e. volatility of house price cycles) and the degree of countries’ involvement in such exchange rate arrangements as the “snake in the tunnel” and ERM. One the basis of these criteria, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, the UK and Spain are selected as case studies and time period covers 1972 (when the “snake” was established) up to and including 1999 (the year in which EMU was launched). The approach adopted in the research allows for consideration of the transmission mechanism in the context of structural changes in systems and policies that determine housing demand and supply. Therefore, the thesis investigates macro-level trends drawing on secondary sources, statistics as well as interviews with informed commentators and key actors. The analysis is conducted in the following order: first, for each case study country, the importance of monetary policy for house price changes is examined, and secondly, the possible impact of a single monetary policy on economic convergence and synchronisation of house price cycles across the countries is investigated. The research suggests that the adoption of the single monetary policy per se is unlikely to lead to significant synchronisation of real house price cycles because the relationship between changes in interest rates and changes in real house prices is likely to continue to differ across the countries. The pursuit of a single monetary policy might not ensure economic convergence between the countries either, and in this case differnces in GDP fluctuations would lead to the divergence of real house price cycles. The study also demonstrates that recent developments in the systems and policies that determine housing demand and supply might lead to an increase in house price volatility in all countries bar Germany. It concludes that countries need to manage their housing markets using non-monetary instruments regardless of whether or not they are within EMU. These measures might help reduce the likelihood of asymmetry in economic developments in EMU arising from the importance of changes in the housing markets to economic developments.

This thesis looks at the constitutional implications of the Euro crisis for the European Union and its Member States, which entails consideration of comparative public law as well as EU law. It focuses on political and legal accountability in Economic and Monetary Union, and examines three sets of issues: the revised EU economic governance framework and its bearing on national economic and fiscal policy; the respective roles of the EU and national institutions within this multi-level system of economic governance; and judicial review of economic and monetary policy measures at national and EU level. The new EU economic rules could potentially have a great impact on fundamental rights, the horizontal and vertical division of power in the EU, and the welfare state. It is hoped that the policy proposals put forward in this thesis will, if implemented, serve to strengthen political and legal accountability and bolster legitimacy in this pluralistic landscape.

This thesis empirically investigates two important aspects of the benefits of currency (monetary) union - the beneficial impact of eliminating exchange rate volatility on trade and the possibility of consequent economic growth - in the context of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Researchers on the GCC monetary union have mostly been busy in analyzing the viability of the proposed GCC monetary union and they focus on convergence criteria. In contrast to those studies, empirical estimates obtained in this study would provide valuable information to the policy makers who have been working towards the realization of the GCC monetary union. As such this study provides significant contribution to the literature of the GCC monetary union. Chapter 2 thoroughly reviews the optimum currency areas (OCA) literature (both theoretical and empirical) starting with the theories advocated by the pioneers of the OCA. Literature on the European Monetary Union (EMU), monetary unions and integration from African, Latin America, Asian and the prospects from the GCC countries are also reviewed. Chapter 3 empirically investigates convergence criteria and shock synchronization of the GCC countries. Results show positive correlation of the structural shocks (synchronized shocks) among the countries except Qatar. Chapter 4 estimates the impact of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade between the GCC countries. Results obtained using the panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator indicates that the bilateral trade among the GCC countries will increase about 6.2 - 8.7 percent (depending on the volatility measure used) with the elimination of the exchange rate volatility. In the second part of the chapter 4 discusses the role of trade on economic growth (income) of a country and estimates the impact of trade on per capita growth rates of the GCC countries. Results based on the preferred sample period and using the panel GMM estimator indicate that a one-standard deviation increase in the trade (or openness) ratio would increase the growth rate per capita on impact by 2 - 3%. Based on these results we may conclude that the monetary union of the GCC countries would enhance trade which in turn would promote economic growth of the region.

The main principle of the thesis is to address issues concerning structural problems of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and assess economical impact of its potential break up. This in turn implies the need to discuss certain issues. Firstly, since the EMU is based on the concept of Optimal Currency Area (OCA); I start my research with the test whether EMU in its current structure fits the definition of OCA. Secondly, I provide the extensive study on the reasons of current crisis in order to understand the root causes. Thirdly, I assess the potential implications of different ways out of the current sovereign debt crisis.

La structure de la zone euro a évolué dans le temps et ce avant la mise en circulation de la monnaie unique. Depuis le début de la crise, l'hétérogénéité de la zone euro est plus que jamais mise en avant. En effet, les économies de la zone euro convergent et divergent en fonction de la conjoncture. La crise a placé le comportement et le rôle de l'euro au cœur dudébat économique. La déconnexion entre l'évolution de son taux de change et celle de ses déterminants ainsi que son impact sur les exportations sont démontrés dans la thèse. Nos résultats suggèrent que même si le taux de change reste un déterminant important des exportations, le rôle de la compétitivité structurelle est de plus en plus important
The Eurozone pattern has evolved over time and that before the experience of the unique money. Since the beginning of the crisis, the heterogenity of the Eurozone is more than ever highlighted. Actually, the Eurozone economies converge and diverge according to the conjuncture. The crisis placed the euro behavior and role at the core of the economic debate.The disconnection between the evolution of its exchange rate and those of its determinants is showed in the thesis as well as its impact on exports. Our findings suggest that even the exchange rate is an important determinant of exports, the role of structural competitiveness is increasingly important

This thesis examines determinacy and E-stability of economic policy in monetary union models. Monetary policy takes the form of either a contemporaneous or a forecast based interest rate rule, while fiscal policy follows a contemporaneous government spending rule. In the absence of asymmetries, the results from the closed economy literature on learning are retained. However, when introducing asymmetries into monetary union frameworks, the determinacy and E-stability conditions for economic policy differ from both the closed and open economy cases. We find that a monetary union with heterogeneous price rigidities is more likely to be determinate and E-stable. Specifically, the Taylor principle, a key stability condition for the closed economy, is now relaxed. Furthermore, an interest rate rule that stabilizes the terms of trade in addition to output and inflation, is more likely to induce determinacy and local stability under RLS learning. If monetary policy is sufficiently aggressive in stabilizing the terms of trade, then determinacy and E-stability of the union economy can be achieved without direct stabilization of output and inflation. A fiscal policy rule that supports demand for domestic goods following a shock to competitiveness, can destabilize the union economy regardless of the interest rate rule employed by the union central bank. In this case, determinacy and E-stability conditions have to be simultaneously and independently met by both fiscal and monetary policy for the union economy to be stable. When fiscal policy instead stabilizes domestic output gaps while monetary policy stabilizes union output and inflation, fiscal policy directly affects the stability of monetary policy. A contemporaneous monetary policy rule has to be more aggressive to satisfy the Taylor principle, the more aggressive fiscal policy is. On the other hand, when monetary policy is forward looking, an aggressive fiscal policy rule can help induce determinacy.

This thesis consists of four self-contained but related papers trying to uncover different aspects of banking and sovereign risk in the member countries of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). From a methodological point of view, they all have in common the contingent claims model from the theory of finance, which is used to value call options on a stock. The first paper, “Bank risk behavior and connectedness in EMU countries”, studies the structural differences in banking sector and financial regulations at country level to measure and analyze the banking sector risk behavior. Deviating from the current view, which in our opinion is excessively focused on Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs), we introduce a micro approach to emphasize the role of smaller financial institutions in build-up of risk. The paper starts with a discussion of the reasons that are needed to consider this choice. Contingent claims analysis model is employed to calculate the risk of individual banks which is then aggregated at country level. The remaining of the paper tries to highlight the information content of country level banking risk indices. It is shown that if banking sector risk is calculated at country level using a bigger sample of banks, it can provide a simple, convenient and intuitive forward looking risk measure. The risk measures differentiate countries based on the structural differences in their financial sectors and show strong correlations with national and regional market sentiment indicators. They outperform the regulatory risk measures based at the European level and the causal linkages run from them to the latter indicators, suggesting better information content. And even though they have high correlations, causality and connectedness tests reveal no systemic component. The second paper, “Sovereigns and banks in the euro area: a tale of two crises”, attempts to quantify the directional intensity of sovereign-bank linkages in the euro area countries. To this end, we borrow the indicator of banking sector risk in each country from the first paper, and use a traditional measure of sovereign risk (10-year government yield spreads over Germany). The paper starts with the review of channels via which banks and sovereigns are linked in a vicious cycle. We apply a dynamic approach to testing for Granger causality between the two measures of risk in each country, allowing us to check for episodes of significant and abrupt increase in short-run causal linkages. The empirical results indicate that episodes of causality intensification vary considerably in both directions over time and across the different EMU countries. The directionality suggests the presence of causality intensification, mainly from banks to sovereigns, in the crisis periods. Our findings also present empirical evidence about the existence of an adverse feedback loop between sovereigns and banks in some euro-area countries. The third paper, “Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models: Application to peripheral euro area countries”, develops and uses a seniority structure of sovereign's creditors to analyze the impact of sectoral distribution of debt on the sovereign credit risk. Specifically, this paper highlights the role of multilateral creditors (i.e., the ECB, IMF, ESM etc.) and their preferred creditor status in explaining the sovereign default risk of peripheral euro area (EA) countries. Incorporating lessons from sovereign debt crises in general, and from the Greek debt restructuring in particular, we define the priority structure of sovereigns' creditors that is most relevant for peripheral EA countries in severe crisis episodes. This new priority structure of creditors, together with the contingent claims methodology, is then used to derive a set of sovereign credit risk indicators. In particular, the sovereign distance-to-default indicator, proposed in this paper (which includes both accounting metrics and market-based measures) aims to isolate sovereign credit risk by using information from the public sector balance sheets to build it up. Analyzing and comparing it with traditional market-based measures of sovereign risk suggests that the measurement and predictive ability of credit risk measures can be vastly improved if we account for the changing composition of sovereigns' balance sheet risk based on creditors' seniority. In the last paper, “Revisiting the sovereign-bank linkages: Evidence from contingent claims analysis”, we reconsider the sovereign-bank nexus as discussed in the second paper to check the robustness of our findings. Using the banking sector risk indicator developed in our first paper, together with the sovereign risk index build in the third paper we re-inspect the bank-sovereign linkages. We use three different statistical measures of interconnection based on principal components analysis, Granger causality network and Diebold-Yilmaz's connectedness index. We also compare our results with alternative specifications using existing market-based indicators of banking and sovereign risk. Our results suggest strong connectedness and co-movement between country-level banking and sovereign risk indicators. We also find evidence of an increasing role of idiosyncratic risk factors driving the evolution of all risk indices in the post-crisis period, thus supporting the “wake-up call hypothesis” that the sensitivity of financial market participants to fundamental differences increased during the crisis. Country-wise analysis of time-varying bi-directional linkages using dynamic Granger-causality suggests the development of a bank-sovereign doom loop in Spain corroborating for this country the findings of our second paper. Connectedness analysis also suggest that increasingly the risk is being driven away from market-based uncertainty to the idiosyncratic risk factors, which are better captured by the contingent claim based indices.

In the study we explore the context of the Economic and Monetary Union under a theoretical agenda of sociological institutionalism. We reconstruct the EMU dynamics in three papers that reflect three levels of institutional analysis. The first paper takes a bird's eye view of the EMU and explores its macro-level dynamics. Treating the Eurosystem as a field, we take literally the EU motto ‘united in diversity’ and inquire into the dynamics of the field’s plurality in the last 20 years. We show how the uniformity and diversity coexist in the accounts of the European central banks. In the second paper we explore the microfoundations of the EMU transformation in the banking union. Analyzing two sequential enactments of the key role of the EMU, President of the European Central Bank, we show how the previous embeddedness of the second president affects his role enactment and forms his intention for a particular direction of the EMU development. The third paper studies institutional evolution at the meso-level. Exploring the identity dynamics of the central organization of the EMU, the European Central Bank, we show that it evolves along with the social context around it. With time the organization comes to be defined as accountable and active in words of its leaders and changes its identity from managing to governing.

The characteristics of the Sino-Soviet Alliance have been analyzed extensively for more than three decades. However, the economic aspects of this Alliance remain unclear. A number of factors, such as statistical discrepancies, complexity of interpretation, and the quality and reliability of the Chinese and Soviet sources , are accountable for this obscurity. A more narrowly focused study examining the role Sino-Soviet economic relations played in shaping the Alliance is useful to better our understanding. After a chronological, review of the Sino-Soviet economic relationship, its significance in shaping the Alliance is examined through the reappraisal of three major areas. Firstly, the relative costs and benefits for each partner are assessed in an objective and detached way. The Soviet Union made a decisive contribution to China's industrialization. Soviet financial aid , though modest in figure, was provided in a timely way. Together with the provision of scientific and technological knowledge, the value of Soviet aid must be regarded as considerable. The benefits to the Soviet Union were less impressive; but since the imported Chinese consumer goods were largely consumed in the Soviet Far East, the benefits should not be underestimated. The cost for both sides remains obscure; though it is obvious that the questions of "Soviet exploitation", concerning the joint-stock companies, the overvaluation of the rouble and the pricing in Sino-Soviet trade are highly complex and should be interpreted with greater care. Secondly, the effect of Sino-Soviet economic cooperation on the Alliance — whether it strengthened or weakened it — is explored. Undoubtedly, the economic relationship had both unifying and divisive effects. It was a unifying factor because the Soviets had provided China with support and assistance that would have been difficult to obtain elsewhere . Another factor which had tied China to the USSR was the strong Soviet influences resulting from the implementation of the Soviet model and the close cooperation in the fields of education and sciences. On the other hand, these Soviet influences proved to be a divisive factor as well, because they produced a domestic political and social situation that Mao found profoundly distasteful. Different economic interests and competition in foreign aid programs also created tensions and frictions. The independent outlook of China's leaders made them resentful of their role as a junior partner in the early 1950's, and prevented them from entering a long-term trade agreement with the USSR or joining the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance, as the Soviets had wished. Finally, the impact of Sino-Soviet economic relations upon China's policy-making is discussed, albeit speculatively. In the early 1950's, China's economic and military dependence on the USSR made its leaders exercise greater caution in their claim of "Mao's Road " as the model for other Asian countries. As China gained strength, however, Soviet influence declined. While the discontinuation of Soviet financial aid can reasonably be regarded as one of the major factors contributing to China's decision to abandon the Soviet model in 1958, the economic pressure applied by Khrushchev failed to change China's policy, and proved counterproductive.
Arts, Faculty of
History, Department of
Graduate

Could the European Union (EU) be more like other federations where monetary integration works together with fiscal federalism? Assuming that Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) strongly reinforces economic integration, and since national governments were deprived of adjustment mechanisms to accommodate economic shocks, the question seems plausible. Is the Euro-zone economy, and national economies in particular, still shielded against these shocks? The dissertation's purpose is to provide a political-economic answer to these questions, addressing the feasibility of conventional fiscal federalism in the EU. 'Conventional fiscal federalism' refers to systemic aspects of federations, where a constitutional division of powers between different tiers of government is organised as far as fiscal powers are concerned. This division of powers involves a centralisation bias. Recognising that monetarism shadows EMU everywhere, important consequences are found when the prospect of 'conventional fiscal federalism' is at stake. The monetarist influence reflects the prominence devoted to supranational monetary policy for stabilisation purposes. It is implied that fiscal policy has a minor role in providing stabilisation for the Euro-zone. At best, fiscal policy is valuable for each member state adjusting domestic economies to specific developments, as an expression of the diversity that characterises the EU. The discussion about 'conventional fiscal federalism' and the EU brings out the important question of equity being at the mercy of centralisation, to emulate other federations' picture. Nonetheless I find important evidence that centralisation of the redistribution function is not feasible in the EU context. National governments' lack of political willingness to significantly increase EU budget resources, and the clearly absent solidarity among EU member states both prevent the implementation of such centralisation impetus. The dissertation concludes ruling out the feasibility of 'conventional fiscal federalism' in the EU. However this is not the same as rejecting fiscal federalism at all. Considering the existence of different tiers of government endowed with fiscal competences, and a clear assignment of powers between them, this is sufficient to conclude that a different, decentralised, low profile modality of fiscal federalism already exists in the EU

This thesis analyses twenty years of fiscal policy coordination under Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) – its genesis, implementation courses and changes. It does so by resorting to the construct of learning as an ontological trait of policy making and employing modes of policy learning (intended as distinct causal mechanisms) to operationalise this ontology for the sake of empirical investigation. To this end, a “policy learning measuring instrument” has been constructed allowing for the categorisation of each case study in terms of their prevalent mode of learning and then for the testing of mode-specific expected implications. From a methodological point of view, the thesis relies on theory-testing process tracing and evidentiary eclecticism to verify mode-specific observable implications. Throughout its history, the supranational coordination of fiscal policies under EMU has been characterised by three distinct regimes. The first one was substantiated by the fiscal criteria of Stage II of EMU (in force during the period of 1994-1998). The prevalent mode of learning under this regime was hierarchical. In terms of outcomes, that mode led to instrumental learning that sustained the process of convergence. The launch of the euro and the adoption of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) substantiated a new fiscal policy coordination regime that lasted until 2010. Under the SGP, learning took place as a by-product of bargaining and reinforced strategic and opportunistic implementation. The financial crisis of 2007/2008 led to a de facto abeyance of the SGP and to its overhaul from 2010. Within this episode of policy change two case studies were distilled, one of emergency-driven, intracrisis management and one of long term, institutional change. While the first case was explained through a mechanism of contingent learning, the second one was crucially found to be driven by epistemic forces. The findings arising out of this study are conversant with different strands of the literature and, in particular, seek to contribute to the political economy of the E(M)U and to integration theories at large.

The purpose of this paper has been to investigate the monetary policy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), in terms of a Taylor rule based approach to their use of their interest rate. The evaluation of the different rules was based on both in-sample and out-of-sample forecast errors. Few significant or consistent influences from the variables proposed by the rules can be established, which might suggest that the bank operates primarily under a discretionary framework rather than a rule. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the European Central Bank interest rate (ECB-rate) does not exclusively drive the Central Bank of West African States interest rate (BCEAO-rate), which suggests that they indeed do retain some independence of monetary policy to respond to domestic variables as proposed by earlier research, despite having a fixed exchange rate. These results put into question the credibility of the BCEAO in attaining their stated primary goal of price stability, as there seems to be no significant or consistent response to it in the setting of their interest rate, despite a suggested ability to react to it. This can be the cause of the current high volatility of inflation in the area and give rise to future volatility and instability as well.

This thesis examines fiscal policy coordination in the EU during the Great Recession (2008-2010). For the first time since the Maastricht Treaty heralded the coordination of macroeconomic policies among EU Member States, public finances were collectively focused on stimulus policies. In sharp contrast to the preceding decade of consolidation and constraint, fiscal policy coordination during the Great Recession presents a novelty: a study in fiscal expansion. Drawing on Mancur Olson’s Logic of Collective Action, this thesis uses a mixed-methods approach that combines the insights from over 40 in-depth interviews and econometric analyses. The central argument of this thesis is that the fiscal crisis responses of EU Member States were not coordinated. Yet despite this lack of coordination, free-riding was kept at bay. First, the overarching consensus on the need for counter-cyclical fiscal policies prevented growth free-riding (i.e. a situation of limited domestic stimulus and free-riding on other countries’ expansive fiscal policies). Second, discipline imposed by financial market participants contributed to policy-makers’ awareness of their limited room for fiscal manoeuvre, which meant that stability free-riding (i.e. stimulus policies that exceeded a country’s fiscal space) did not occur. The first finding suggests the importance of shared policy ideas in achieving collective action; the second points to the role of financial markets in constraining public finances. Ultimately both, shared policy ideas and market discipline, can function as a substitute for strong institutional commitment to shape group oriented behaviour.

Given the growing effect that globalisation and integration has had upon economies and regions, the process of monetary union has become an increasingly topical issue in economic policy debates. This has been driven in part by the experience and successes of the European Monetary Union (EMU), which is widely perceived as beneficial to member countries. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is an example of a group of countries that has realised that there are benefits that may arise from economic integration. This paper makes use of an interest-rate pass through model to investigate whether the pass-through of monetary policy transmission in ten SADC countries has become more similar between January 1990 and December 2007 using monthly interest rate data. This is done to determine the extent of macroeconomic convergence that prevails within SADC, and consequently establish whether the formation of a regional monetary union is feasible. The results of the empirical pass-through model were robust and show that there are certain countries that have a more efficient and similar monetary transmission process than others. In particular, the countries that form the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) tend to show evidence of convergence in monetary policy transmission, especially since 2000. In addition, from analysis of the long-run pass-through, the results reveal that there is evidence that Malawi and Zambia have shown signs of convergence toward the countries that form the CMA and SACU, in terms of monetary policy transmission. The study concludes that a SADC wide monetary union is currently not feasible based on the evidence provided from the results of the pass-through analysis. Despite this, it can be tentatively suggested that the CMA may be expanded to include Botswana, Malawi and Zambia.

This thesis provides new insight into the EMU’s impact on the Euro-area firms’ performance, by examining the firms’ accounting rates of return and financial cash flows. The impact is evaluated separately for the EMU formation and the physical Euro adoption, and over different time horizons. The existing literature does not directly examine these issues. This study uses the regression model of the difference-in-differences approach to examine 121 Euro-area and North American firms, covering 14 sectors, over the period from 1992 to 2008. The results indicate a positive impact of the EMU on the firms’ financial cash flows, especially after the Euro adoption, which support the related literature. However, the accounting rates of return suggest a mostly negative impact. The magnitude of the impacts declines over time. The results are robust with respect to GDP as a control variable. The study also reports the EMU’s impact on 4 major industrial sectors.
viii, 68 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm

Cette thèse s’intéresse au défi que représente le rattrapage des niveaux de prix pour la stabilité macroéconomique des pays en transition d’Europe centrale et orientale, dans la perspective de leur future participation à la zone euro. A cet égard, une modélisation du taux de change réel d’équilibre suggère que l’appréciation réelle liée au rattrapage économique recouvre des évolutions de prix relatifs différentes suivant les régimes de change, dont témoignent des trajectoires d’endettement extérieur contrastées. Dans les économies en changes flexibles, la hausse du taux de change nominal favorise une appréciation endogène des termes de l’échange à moyen terme, en orientant les investissements directs étrangers et la réalisation des gains de productivité vers le secteur exposé de l’économie, ce qui se traduit par une appréciation du taux de change réel d’équilibre et une amélioration des comptes extérieurs. Dans les économies en changes fixes, les effets de valorisation liés à la hausse des prix relatifs domestiques tendent à orienter les investissements vers le secteur abrité de l’économie, entraînant une érosion de la compétitivité extérieure, dont témoigne le gonflement de la dette externe. Par ailleurs, l’intégration monétaire comporte des risques spécifiques pour la stabilité macroéconomique des économies en rattrapage, dans la mesure où elle s’accompagne d’un processus marqué de convergence des conditions de financement entre Etats membres, dès lors que la perspective de l’adhésion à l’espace monétaire commun devient crédible. Un modèle dynamique à anticipations rationnelles permet de montrer que face au choc de demande lié à une telle convergence financière, l’appréciation du taux de change nominal se révèle cruciale pour limiter la surchauffe de l’économie. A l’inverse, dans les économies en régime de change fixe, l’abaissement des primes de risque pays est susceptible de provoquer une montée de l’endettement extérieur, suivi d’enchaînements déflationnistes une fois dans l’union monétaire
This research investigates the challenges of price level catching-up for macroeconomic stability in Central and Eastern European transition countries seeking to enter the Euro area. In this respect, an equilibrium real exchange rate model suggests that the process of real appreciation observed along economic catching-up in these countries can be ascribed to different relative price developments, depending on the exchange rate regime, as exemplified by contrasted external debt trajectories. In flexible exchange rate economies, the increase in the nominal exchange rate fosters an endogenous appreciation of the terms of trade in the medium run, by channelling foreign direct investment and associated productivity gains to the exposed sector of the economy, thus appreciating the equilibrium real exchange rate and strengthening the current account over time. In fixed exchange rate economies, positive valuation effects associated with the increase in domestic relative prices tend to divert investment to the sheltered sector, thus undermining external competitiveness and bringing about higher external debt. Furthermore, monetary integration entails specific risks for macroeconomic stability in catching-up economies, because it implies a process of rapid convergence in the financing conditions across member States, which takes place as soon as the perspective of accession to the common monetary area appears credible. A dynamic, rational expectations model shows that the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate becomes crucial to curtail the economic overheating triggered by the demand shock associated with financial convergence. By contrast, diminishing country risk premia under fixed exchange rate regimes are likely to cause ‘boom bust’ cycles, with an increase in external indebtedness followed by deflationary developments once in the monetary union

Economic and monetary integration efforts in West Africa over the past several decades have been highly problematic. However, with the recent commitment of the international community and key international institutions to assist Africa bring about economic advancement, such integration can be achieved. It is within this context of renewed optimism for Africa that this thesis aims to address the role of law and institutions in facilitating closer economic integration and eventual monetary union among the Anglophone states of West Africa This thesis proposes that legal infrastructure and institutions will help achieve and sustain the WAMZ monetary union. It argues for the development of appropriate infrastructural "pillars" for such a union, which would be brought about by comprehensive regional treaty provisions and structures in conjunction with complementary domestic legal and institutional reforms. It focuses specifically on the existence of adequate legal and institutional framework for the integration of the banking markets, central bank independence, and fiscal management in Member States. In assessing these issues, a comparative analysis is provided between the Monetary Union proposed by the Anglophone West African states (WAMZ) and those of the Francophone West African states (WAMU) and the European Union. Nigeria is used as a case study in assessing the state of preparedness of the Member States of this proposed Union, since it has the largest economy in the sub-region and is the main political driving force behind the project of integration. This thesis is divided into two parts comprising six chapters. Part one, consisting of three chapters, considers the legal and institutional requirements for economic integration. Chapter One presents the preliminary background by considering the relevant theories of economic integration and by assessing the benefits and possible drawbacks of such integration within the context of West Africa. Chapter Two provides a historical analysis of economic regional efforts in Anglophone West Africa. This assessment shows that failures of these efforts are attributed, in part, to inadequate legal and institutional arrangements at the regional level. Chapter Three considers the domestic legal and institutional requirements for effective participation in an economic integration arrangement and provides a case study on Nigeria. Chapters Four to Six constitute part two of the work and assess the legal and institutional framework for the proposed monetary union. This second part considers, specifically, whether Member States possess the legal and institutional requirements for the integration of their banking markets, for the preservation of central bank independence and for the effective conduct of fiscal management. By using international standards of best practices, these Chapters assess the adequacy of relevant institutions in Nigeria, which are necessary preconditions for supporting the proposed monetary union.

In conformity with the goal of the African Union to build a monetary union for the entire African continent, one of the goals of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is the formation of a monetary union with a single central bank. Towards this end certain macroeconomic convergence criteria, which are closely aligned with those used by the European Union (EU), have been set. While empirical research on whether or not SADC would benefit from the formation of a currency union has focused on the optimum currency area criteria, no reference to these criteria is made in the SADC programme. Instead, the SADC approach has been governed by a set of macroeconomic convergence criteria synonymous with those pursued by the European Monetary Union (EMU) prior to its formation. Doubts regarding the future of the EU have recently been raised as a result of debt crises in certain member states, implicitly raising questions about the adequacy of the convergence criteria that were adopted. Accordingly, this study considers the feasibility of establishing a currency union in the SADC region. The proposed convergence criteria are assessed against the theory of optimum currency areas as well as in terms of their adequacy in the light of recent EU experience. In addition, the paper provides a preliminary assessment of the fiscal sustainability of the SADC region by conducting Engle-Granger cointegration tests on the public debt and revenue series for the SADC countries under analysis. It was observed that SADC has made considerable progress towards meeting its macroeconomic convergence criteria in recent years. However, in light of the regions' heavy dependence on commodity exports coupled with recent price fluctuations in this regard, the sustainability of this progress is questioned. Furthermore, a review of the EMU experience to date highlights numerous flaws in its approach and the potential challenges the SADC region should consider in moving forward with its agenda. In essence, the study suggests that almost all the SADC member states are fiscally unprepared for monetary union formation and the recent EMU debt crisis has highlighted the importance of acquiring a state of fiscal sustainability prior to union formation. In addition, it is imperative that the SADC members continue to address issues of product diversification, intraregional trade and political unification, all of which should be governed by a centralised fiscal authoriry.

This study examines the relationship between economic and monetary integration culminating in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and welfare state trajectories focusing on the cases of Belgium, Italy, and Greece in the 1990s. The conventional wisdom on this relationship expected that EMU would lead to across-the-board downsizing of the European welfare states through imposing macroeconomic austerity in general and budgetary restraint in particular. The study questions the validity of this prediction which is represented by the austerity hypothesis. Based on an analysis of social expenditure data in the run-up to EMU the study reveals that spending levels remained largely stable and therefore that the welfare states of the EMU-candidates largely escaped radical retrenchment. Avoiding significant and systematic expenditure retreat was possible not only in the face of powerful fiscal pressures but also during a period when policymakers had the opportunity to justify even the most draconian measures in the name of achieving EMU membership. Hence the study addresses the following puzzle: How could Europe's welfare states largely avert across-the-board downsizing during the 1990s despite fiscal pressures they faced on the road to EMU? Through an examination of episodes of welfare reform in three critical cases (Belgium, Italy, and Greece) which needed to go through drastic budgetary cutbacks for EMU membership, the study shows that the Maastricht criteria did compel successive governments in these member states to propose radical welfare reforms, vindicating the conventional wisdom's expectations. In episodes of welfare reform, however, governments discovered that their reform capacities were largely limited due to domestic opposition from an alliance of entrenched interests. The convergence period was marred with recurrent mass mobilization of unions against welfare reforms which forced governments to scale back their original ambitions or scrap them altogether. This shows that the expectations of the conventional wisdom that EMU would actually lead to massive retrenchment of Europe's welfare states, however, are not borne out by the evidence on welfare state trajectories in the 1990s.

The impact of the world oil price increases of the early 1970s and those that occured in the 1980s, and the corresponding growth in revenue for the Nigerian economy had two major effects. First, it affected the official exchange rates and its determination, hence fiscal developments for the country. At the same time, the windfall also led to an unbalanced sectoral change within the economy. Both the internal and external economic situation since the oil shock had shown persistent imbalances requiring adjustments. In analysing the oil shock effect, a comprehensive assessment of the influences of exchange rates and structural adjustment problems employs the valuable strengths of the monetary approach aspects of exchange rates determination; particularly on the question of external payments adjustment and of inflation of domestic price levels. The function of exchange rate as an instrument of stabilization policy in an economy such as Nigeria is imperative. A relatively stable exchange rate standard in a world of significant variability is important in evaluating the impact of exchange rate changes on the economy; precisely because the financial infrastructures are at the developing state. When tight controls on the foreign trade sector also lead to the establishment of an unofficial market in foreign exchange, the question of stability would depend on which of the two markets adjust quicker. The market with the more rapid rate of adjustment can therefore provide a guide to exchange rate policy performance. In analysing the stuctural adjustments impact of the oil revenues, features of both national and global economic environment that are significant for macroeconomic performance, which are also proximately related to exchange rates determination are considered by using the dutch-disease framework. By laying emphasis on the fuction of exchange rates mechanism and the impact of the oil revenue increases at macroeconomic level, the large and persistent misalignment of real exchange rates and the general economic policies of the oil boom era are thus analysed in-depth.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2008.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The ultimate goal of the African Union is full political and economic integration, which includes a monetary union with a common currency for all member states of the African Union. This monetary integration is proposed to take place in two stages: firstly, through five regions, and secondly, through complete integration. This report examines current trade data for member states of the African Union using k means duster analysis to group countries according to trade patterns. Analysis was performed for the actual US dollar value of trade, as well as considering only the presence or absence of trade. There are limitations to the data collected: firstly, they are annual data, which masks fluctuations in trade due to economic conditions or political developments. Secondly, they are subject to missing or under-reported values. The focus of this research report was to consider trade figures for the first time, and the limitations were considered acceptable in view of the aim of achieving a first approximation of results. When considering all solutions, there are overlaps between clusters, but no definite patterns emerge that are common to all analyses. Considering the F and Euclidean distances of all solutions, the best appears to be that for clusters derived from analysing trade figures between Africa and its trading partners outside Africa. Further analysis of this solution failed to demonstrate viable clusters. The final conclusion to be made from this analysis is that k means clustering of trade figures for member states of the African Union does not generate viable clusters that could be used as steps towards full monetary integration in Africa. Given this conclusion it is recommended that the stepwise progression towards full monetary integration be considered by utilising existing economic arrangements, i.e. by using the five Regional Economic Communities proposed by the African Union.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die uiteindelike doel van die Afrika-unie is volledige politieke en ekonomiese integrasie, wat 'n monetere unie met 'n gemeenskaplike geldeenheid vir al die lidstate van die Afrika-unie insluit. Hierdie monetere integrasie word in twee stadiums beoog: eers deur vyf streke, en daarna deur volledige integrasie. Hierdie verslag ondersoek die huidige handelsdata vir lidstate van die Afrika-unie deur k gemiddelde trosanalise te gebruik om lande volgens handelspatrone te groepeer. 'n Analise is ook gedoen van die werklike VS-dollarwaarde van handel, en deur die aanwesigheid of afwesigheid van handel in aanmerking te neem. Daar is beperkings op die data wat ingesamel is: eerstens is dit jaarlikse data, wat skommelings in handel as gevolg van ekonomiese toestande of politieke ontwikkelings verberg. Tweedens is hulle onderworpe aan ontbrekende of ondergerapporteerde waardes. Die fokus van hierdie navorsingsverslag was dus om handelsyfers vir die eerste keer te oorweeg, en die beperkings is aanvaarbaar beskou in die lig van die doel om 'n eerste benadering van resultate te verkry. Wanneer aile oplossings oorweeg word, is daar oorvleueling tussen trosse, maar geen definitiewe patrone ontstaan wat vir alle analises geld nie. Wanneer die F- en Euklidiese afstande van alle oplossings oorweeg word, lyk dit asof die beste die trosse is wat verkry is uit die analise van handelsyfers tussen Afrika en sy handelsvennote buite Afrika. Verdere analise van hierdie oplossing het nie lewensvatbare trosse aangedui nie. Die finale gevolgtrekking wat uit hierdie analise gemaak kan word, is dat k gemidderde trosvorming van handelsyfers vir lidstate van die Afrika-unie nie lewensvatbare trosse genereer wat gebruik kan word as stappe in die rigting van volledige monetere integrasie in Afrika nie. Met die oog op hierdie gevolgtrekking word daar aanbeveel dat die stapsgewyse vordering na volledige monetere integrasie oorweeg moet word deur bestaande ekonomiese reelings te gebruik, d.w.s. deur die vyf Streeksekonomiese Gemeenskappe te gebruik wat deur die Afrika-unie voorgestel is.

In October 1999 the European Commission published the second progress report on the state of convergence of the Central- and Eastern European candidate countries (CEECs). The report encompasses an assessment, which is based on the three Copenhagen criteria. From an economic point of view, a country must have a functioning market economy and be able to withstand the competition on the European single market. In this paper we present a synthetic performance measure which helps to assess the economic preparedness of the ten Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) to become members of the European Union (EU). With the aid of the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) we construct a best practice frontier, which is supported by the best performing EU-countries and which serves as a benchmark for the candidate countries. The preparedness of any CEEC is measured as the relative distance to this frontier. The results confirm that the macroeconomic performance of most of the CEECs lies far behind the EU standards, in foreign trade some of the CEECs already perform better than some EU countries. Interestingly, we find out that some CEECs are already better prepared for the EMU than many EU member states. (authors' abstract)
Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

La tesi intende fornire un’analisi critica dello sviluppo dell’Unione Economica e Monetaria (UEM) alla luce della crisi del debito sovrano. A partire dal 2009 sono state progressivamente attuate diverse riforme che hanno limitato l’autonomia degli Stati Membri nell’esercizio delle loro prerogative sovrane ed hanno fornito alle istituzione europee nuovi poteri nell’ambito di diverse politiche. La ricerca investiga i trasferimenti di sovranità in corso dal livello nazionale a quello europeo focalizzandosi sulle trasformazioni sia dell’Unione Economica che di quella Monetaria. Nel primo capitolo la tesi analizza i carattere originali dell’UEM dalla sua creazione fino alla ratifica del trattato di Lisbona. Il secondo capitolo considera la creazione dei meccanismi di stabilizzazione introdotti per salvare i paesi a rischio default e garantire la stabilità finanziaria della zona euro nel suo complesso. Il terzo capitolo studia gli interventi della Banca Centrale Europea durante la crisi, analizzando in che modo la necessità di proteggere la moneta unica abbia sviluppato il ruolo della BCE ed esteso il suo mandato. Il quarto capitolo studia la riforma della governance economica tramite il rafforzamento della disciplina fiscale degli Stati Membri. Il quinto capitolo analizza la riforma della governance bancaria e la creazione dell’Unione Bancaria, che è stata finalmente introdotta per interrompere il circolo vizioso tra crisi del debito e crisi bancaria. Nello sviluppo della tesi le diverse riforme verranno analizzate dal punto di visto della loro legalità, efficacia e legittimità democratica.
The thesis aims to provide a critical analysis of the development of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in the light of the sovereign debt crisis. Since 2009 a number of measures have been progressively implemented, which have limited the autonomy of Member States in exercising their sovereign prerogatives and have granted EU institutions new powers in key policy areas. The research will investigate the ongoing transfers of sovereignty from national to European level focusing on the transformation of both the Economic and the Monetary Union. In the first chapter, it will consider the original features of the EMU, from its introduction at the intergovernmental conference of Maastricht until the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. The second chapter will focus on the creation of rescue and stabilization mechanisms put in place to save Member States from imminent default and to ensure the financial stability of the Eurozone as a whole. The third chapter will study the interventions of the European Central Bank during the crisis considering how the necessity to protect the single currency has developed its role and extended its mandate. The fourth chapter will focus on the reform of the economic governance through the fiscal discipline of Member States. The fifth chapter will take into consideration the reform of the banking governance and the establishment of the European Banking Union, which was finally introduced to stop the vicious cycle between the debt and banking crisis. By developing the thesis, the analysis will consider each reform from the point of view of its legality, effectiveness and democratic legitimacy.

La tesi intende fornire un’analisi critica dello sviluppo dell’Unione Economica e Monetaria (UEM) alla luce della crisi del debito sovrano. A partire dal 2009 sono state progressivamente attuate diverse riforme che hanno limitato l’autonomia degli Stati Membri nell’esercizio delle loro prerogative sovrane ed hanno fornito alle istituzione europee nuovi poteri nell’ambito di diverse politiche. La ricerca investiga i trasferimenti di sovranità in corso dal livello nazionale a quello europeo focalizzandosi sulle trasformazioni sia dell’Unione Economica che di quella Monetaria. Nel primo capitolo la tesi analizza i carattere originali dell’UEM dalla sua creazione fino alla ratifica del trattato di Lisbona. Il secondo capitolo considera la creazione dei meccanismi di stabilizzazione introdotti per salvare i paesi a rischio default e garantire la stabilità finanziaria della zona euro nel suo complesso. Il terzo capitolo studia gli interventi della Banca Centrale Europea durante la crisi, analizzando in che modo la necessità di proteggere la moneta unica abbia sviluppato il ruolo della BCE ed esteso il suo mandato. Il quarto capitolo studia la riforma della governance economica tramite il rafforzamento della disciplina fiscale degli Stati Membri. Il quinto capitolo analizza la riforma della governance bancaria e la creazione dell’Unione Bancaria, che è stata finalmente introdotta per interrompere il circolo vizioso tra crisi del debito e crisi bancaria. Nello sviluppo della tesi le diverse riforme verranno analizzate dal punto di visto della loro legalità, efficacia e legittimità democratica.
The thesis aims to provide a critical analysis of the development of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in the light of the sovereign debt crisis. Since 2009 a number of measures have been progressively implemented, which have limited the autonomy of Member States in exercising their sovereign prerogatives and have granted EU institutions new powers in key policy areas. The research will investigate the ongoing transfers of sovereignty from national to European level focusing on the transformation of both the Economic and the Monetary Union. In the first chapter, it will consider the original features of the EMU, from its introduction at the intergovernmental conference of Maastricht until the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. The second chapter will focus on the creation of rescue and stabilization mechanisms put in place to save Member States from imminent default and to ensure the financial stability of the Eurozone as a whole. The third chapter will study the interventions of the European Central Bank during the crisis considering how the necessity to protect the single currency has developed its role and extended its mandate. The fourth chapter will focus on the reform of the economic governance through the fiscal discipline of Member States. The fifth chapter will take into consideration the reform of the banking governance and the establishment of the European Banking Union, which was finally introduced to stop the vicious cycle between the debt and banking crisis. By developing the thesis, the analysis will consider each reform from the point of view of its legality, effectiveness and democratic legitimacy.

The work sheds light on the largely under-investigated puzzle of the distributional impact of EU economic governance on the budget structures of the Member States. The overarching research question is: Is the impact of the Stability and Growth Pact neutral to the composition of domestic public spending? In addressing the EU-MS fiscal puzzle the thesis considers three main research questions: 1. when and how the SGP affects the composition of national budgets. 2. if and how the SGP has affected the domestic composition of public expenditures during the Great Recession and Eurozone crisis. 3. if and how the impact of the SGP changes across different domestic political, institutional and economic conditions. The thesis brings together the literature of the domestic determinants of national fiscal policy with that on the Economic and Monetary Union. Firstly, the disaggregate assessment of where the bite of the EU economic governance framework lands back at home sheds some light on how the Pact fulfils its policy objectives of promoting at the same time fiscal discipline and inclusive growth. Within this context, it contributes to the rich debate on the subordination of social objectives to economic ones at the hand of the EU fiscal surveillance regulatory framework. At the same time, it evaluates the claim of a detrimental effect of the Pact on investment and growth, linked to the lengthening and worsening of the severe downturn in the context of the Great Recession and Eurozone crisis, as well as the divergence between core and periphery. Building on the well-established findings on the interplay between (national) fiscal rules and the political, institutional, and economic context the analysis provides a causal empirical assessment over the panel of the EU28 from 1995 to 2018 of whether and under which conditions the EU economic governance framework impacts the structure of the budgets of the Member States. In considering both a synthetic indicator of changes to the budget structure, disaggregated impact on all budget lines (e.g. health, education, social protection, etc.), and on broad components associated with investments, transfers, and the mitigation of inequalities, the analysis provides a rare comprehensive picture of which elements are affected at all and where comparatively the highest toll emerges within the components of national spending. The main results are the following: • EU economic governance is far from being neutral in affecting the budget structure of the Member States; • Its impact on the national fiscal policy mix is heterogeneous over time - increasing substantially with the latest wave of reform - and scope, limited predominantly to Eurozone countries under EDP surveillance and aligning quite poorly with prescriptions of the CSRs; • Budgetary dynamics do not escape the bind of the EDP in times of crisis, rather the framework is the most impactful in such circumstances, generating substantial spending restructuring which is both pro-cyclical and detrimental for inclusive growth, as well as for geographical convergence; • Heterogeneity in the effect of the Pact extends to domestic circumstances, with political characteristics of the government (e.g. small budget distances, high alternation) and a unitary institutional structure as a precondition for any impact to materialise, while in the economic domain, alike for the crisis, the restraint of the SGP materialises especially in countering expansionary pressures such as those of ageing and unemployment. Findings refute the widespread argument within the literature of a limited impact of the supranational fiscal governance framework given the poor track record of compliance with the deficit targets of the Stability and Growth Pact. Conversely, the work contributes a more sophisticated account of the EU economic governance framework. It distinguishes not only membership to the EMU and the Eurozone but also close supranational budgetary surveillance under the Excessive Deficit Procedure. Additionally, it accounts for the heterogeneous effects of the Pact over its life and two substantial reforms. While an effect that runs against fiscal discipline is somewhat confirmed for EU and Eurozone membership, EDP surveillance emerges as the key driver of a consolidation-driven restructuring effect on national budget structures. Such dynamic, however, is far from homogeneous across time and place: being under the EDP leads to changes in the fiscal policy mix only within the Eurozone and after the 2011 reform when excluding the period of the crisis. Second, the analysis investigates the alignment between the effect on the national budget structure of the supranational fiscal rule and the policy coordination within the Semester comparing the distributive effect of the Pact with the Country Specific Recommendations (CSRs) in selected Member States. Overall, the negative impact of the EDP on inequality mitigating measures and investment and specifically on health, education, and social protection, more often than not clashes with the CSRs in the considered Member States. Heterogeneities both in the impact of the EDP on the budget structure in the post-2011 period across the core and periphery and the CSRs imply, however, a more substantial disconnect between the two arms of the EMU for the Southern Member States, supporting the narrative of a particularly detrimental effect of the Pact on social spending and inequality. Third, a further contribution is the granular analysis of dynamics in times of crisis unveiling whether the escape clauses shield domestic budget structures from any shock at the hands of the supranational fiscal rule or rather instead the national fiscal policy mix is affected. The analysis offers a rare detailed account of the cost of the SGP in times of crisis for specific budget components and their relative penalization at the hands of austerity policies, allowing to pinpoint if investments have been preserved at the expenses of social policies and those mitigating inequality, together with the intergenerational distributions of fiscal discipline. The results contradict the hypothesis of national budgets escaping from the claws of the pact during economic downturns. Rather, during the crisis more marked restructuring of the fiscal policy mixes emerges, as the EDP surveillance has a significant and sizeable impact on the budget structure and some of the key budget lines of interest even before the 2011 reform in times of crisis. The analysis reveals that not all spending is equally affected, as while EDP surveillance acts to (nearly fully) contain the recessionary upward push on spending, for example, in the domains of education and social protection, it more than compensates for the crisis for another key budget line such as health. As a result, divergences emerge in the constraining effect of the Pact on transfers, investment, and inequality mitigation. The first is only negatively impacted by the EDP surveillance in times of crisis, while the remaining categories always feel the constraining influence of the Pact which is further strengthened during the Great Recession. The already bleak picture for an inclusive and growth-enhancing investment rich recovery hides substantial divergences between core and periphery explored in details in the dissertation, as southern countries carry the worst prospect in terms of full containment of transfers and slashing of investments, with an intergenerational cost shouldered especially by youth. Finally, the work considers as well the interplay between the supranational level and the national context, identifying how the characteristics of the governing coalition (i.e. ideology, the range within the government and alternation), the federal- unitary institutional nature, along with fiscal rule strength preferences in the Member States, and the demographic and employment conditions affect the transmission of the supranational commitments within the Stability and Growth Pact onto the domestic budget structure. In doing so it uncovers as well which national configurations and conditions are conducive to a (restraining) impact of the SGP on national spending and the fiscal policy mix. Findings show that national political context facilitating changes to the budget structure (i.e. small coalition ranges and high alternations) are associated with a larger impact of the EDP surveillance on the fiscal policy mix, which loses significance under less favourable political conditions. A similar pattern emerges for ideology, with somewhat moderate governments as a precondition for any impact of the EDP surveillance, which is more sizeable on the left side of the spectrum. In the institutional arena unitary countries are more conducive to restructuring their budgets when falling under EDP surveillance, while conversely, national fiscal rule preferences show a complementarity between the extent to which countries prefer fiscal discipline on their own and the Pact, with EDP surveillance affecting more substantially the Member States with a laxer approach to spending. Finally, the demographic pressure and that of high unemployment stiffen the budget structure increasing the barriers against a restructuring effect of the Pact. However, from the opposite perspective - alike for the crisis - the constraining power of EDP surveillance is quite remarkable, containing their budgetary implications. To that effect, the EDP enacts substantial convergence across various levels of unemployment and old-age dependency rate. As such, the thesis confirms that while effects are heterogeneous and dependent on the national context, the Pact for Eurozone countries under EDP surveillance is far from a minor nuisance but rather a powerful force capable of substantially restraining if not annihilating key pressures such as that of demography, unemployment, and even the crisis. The thesis is structured as follows. After introducing the purpose and relevance of the work in Chapter One, Chapter Two situates the analysis within the extant literature on the domestic determinants of the budget structure, fiscal rules, and the EU economic governance, which inform and ground the research questions and hypotheses presented in Chapter Three. From such premises, the methodological approach and research design are outlined in Chapter Four touching on the key empirical challenges and mitigation strategies deployed in assessing such a complex ecosystem. Four empirical chapters follow. Chapter Five uncovers heterogeneities in the effect of the EU economic governance over its different configurations (e.g. Eurozone, EDP surveillance) and subsequent regulatory framework (i.e. initial, post- 2005, and post-2011), together with the (mis)-alignment across the effect of the Pact on domestic budget structures and the prescriptions of the Country-Specific- Recommendations. Chapter Six and Seven are dedicated to the assessment of the effect of the Pact during the Great Recession and Eurozone crisis, evaluating whether - against the expectations derived from the escape clauses - any impact on the budget structure emerges at all during the crisis, considering as well at a granular level where the bite of the EU economic governance at crisis lands across budget lines. Chapter Seven continues along the same line considering the distributional effects on investments, transfers, and inequality mitigation during the crisis, taking a closer look at the social dimension and how the intergenerational balance of spending is altered. Chapter Eight concludes the empirical analysis evaluating the interaction between the Pact and the national context uncovering which political, institutional, and economic domestic configurations are most conducive to the impact of the SGP. Finally, Chapter Nine situates the key findings of the thesis in the context of the reform debate on the Pact and fiscal governance more in general, considering as well the insights and outlook for the future of political and economic integration which can be drawn for the unprecedented challenge of the Covid-19 crisis and (partial) policy evolution for the pandemic response.

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Bachelors
Business Administration
Finance

Il y a quatre chapitres dans cette thèse.Dans le premier chapitre, nous analysons les intéractions entre le marché interbancaire et le risque de défaut souverain dans un modèle d’équilibre général à deux pays, en focalisant sur la transmission de la crise financière récente et la politique monétaire non conventionnelle.Dans le deuxième chapitre, les effets de la dévaluation fiscale sur les indicateurs macroéconomiques et le bien être sont analysés en utilisant un modèle à deux pays en union monétaire o`u les variétés de biens et le commerce sont endogènes.Dans le troisième chapitre, l’impact du facteur démographique sur la croissance du secteur des services à long terme est mis en exergue.Dans le quatrième chapitre, on étudie les effets de la mobilité des travailleurs et de la mobilité du capital dans une union monétaire
This thesis studies challenges for modern developped economies, including the structural change toward services, population ageing, weak labor mobility in the EMU and unconventional monetary policies after the 2008 financial crisis. The manuscript is divided into four chapters.In the first chapter, we analyze the interaction between interbank markets and default risk using a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model, with a focus on the transmission of the recent financial crisis and unconventional monetary policies.In the second chapter, we investigate the effects of fiscal devaluations on key macroeconomic aggregates and welfare using a two-country monetary-union model with endogenous varieties and endogenous tradability.In the third chapter, we study the impact of demographic factor and the growth of service sector by using a multi-sectoral OLG model, and effectuate counterfactual experiments in which the annual growth rate of young generation is ±1pp than the actual growth rate.In the fourth chapter, we study the potential interactions between financial integration and labor mobility in a currency union facing asymmetric shocks, and simulate the impacts of 2008 financial crisis under different mobility costs

As a catalyst for a closer economic integration through a single currency, Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) held out the promise of welfare gains for the participating countries and their respective industries. Among the potential benefits of monetary union, EMU was expected to enhance business competition through a stability-oriented macroeconomic policy framework, including greater transparency, reduced exchange rate uncertainty, greater credibility to the policy regime and lower transactions costs, among others. Whether the hotel stakeholders perceived, or did not perceive, significant changes brought about by EMU for Portugal, and the hotel business environment in the north of Portugal in particular, was the central aim of this study. To meet this aim the following was done: First, based on a literature review focussing on the economics of integration, business management and competitiveness theories the underpinning framework of the primary research were identified and developed. In particular, this research focused on the perceptions of the hotel stakeholders towards the implications of EMU using and adapting three of Porter's models: the Diamond, Five Forces, and Value Chain models. By combining Porter's models together in an all-encompassing framework, it was possible to confirm that there are advantages in merging more than one business environment level into an integrated study procedure. Second, three sets of surveys were conducted based on the underlying analytical frameworks and knowledge of EMU and tourism/hotel industry. one survey for each of the three target groups. Together, these three surveys provided a multi-stakeholder perspective - the national, the industry and the businesses perspective - using people involved directly at each level of the business environment (the Portuguese national authorities, the hotel industry associations and the hotel businesses in the North of Portugal). Finally, the data analysis was structured into two parts based on the type of questionnaire used: structured and semi-structured. The semi-structured questionnaires were analysed using two types of content analysis, summation and explanation, using QSR NUD*IST 6 software programme. The structured questionnaires were analysed using basic descriptive methods, such as frequencies and cross tabulations. The quantitative data was analysed using the Statistical Packagefo r SocialS cience(sS PSS). One of the main conclusions the study reached through the conceptual framework used was that, EMU not only changed the business environment at a national level, but also changed the competitive and operational environment of the hotels. However, the effects expected in literature were greater than the effects observed by the hotel stakeholders and, in particular, by the business respondents.