Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Duzce earthquake »

Abstract. Although satisfactory results have yet to be obtained in earthquake prediction, one of the most common indicators of an anomalous precursor is a change in groundwater level in existing wells. Further wells should thus be drilled in unconfined aquifers since these are more susceptible to seismic waves. The Eskisehir region lies in the transition zone between the Aegean extensional domain and the compressible northern Anatolian block. Limnigraphs, installed in 19 exploration wells in the Eskisehir region, recorded pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic level changes during the earthquakes of 17 August Izmit (Mw= 7.4) and 12 November Duzce (Mw= 7.2) 1999 that occurred along the North Anatolian Fault Zone. The Izmit and Duzce earthquakes affected groundwater levels, especially in confined aquifers. The aquifer characteristics before and after the earthquakes were unchanged so the aquifer is elastic in its behaviour. Further detailed geo-mechanical investigation of the confined aquifer in the Eskisehir region may improve understanding of earthquake prediction. Keywords: earthquake prediction, Eskisehir, hydrological warning, monitoring groundwater levels

AbstractThe damage created by an earthquake can overwhelm local health services, and damage to clinics and hospitals can render them useless. After an earthquake, even undamaged medical facilities cannot be used for a period of time if there is a risk of aftershocks and collapse.In such a situation, there may be calls for international health teams – but what constitutes the optimal medical aid a few days after the event? Does a military field hospital fill the “gap” in the local healthcare system?On 12 November 1999, a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck Duzce, Turkey. All of the medical activities of the responding Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) mission team field hospital in Duzce, Turkey were recorded and evaluated. A total of 2,230 patient contacts occurred at the field hospital during the nine days it operated. Most of the patients who presented (90%) had non-traumatic medical, pediatric, or gynecological problems unrelated to the earthquake.The IDF hospital offered medical care provided by specialists, hospitalization, and surgical abilities, which Duzce's hospitals could not offer until two weeks after the earthquake. These results strengthen the importance of a multidisciplinary, versatile, field hospital as an aid to an earthquake-affected population during the first few weeks after an earthquake.

Simulated ground motions have recently gained more attention in seismology and earthquake engineering. Since different characteristics of waveforms are expected to influence alternative structural response parameters, evaluation of simulations, for key components of seismological and engineering points of view is necessary. When seismological aspect is of concern, consideration of a representative set of ground motion parameters is imperative. Besides, to test the applicability of simulations in earthquake engineering, structural demand parameters should simultaneously cover a descriptive set. Herein, simulations are evaluated through comparison of seismological against engineering misfits, individually defined in terms of log-scale misfit and goodness-of-fit score. For numerical investigations, stochastically simulated records of three earthquakes are considered: The 1992 Erzincan-Turkey, 1999 Duzce-Turkey and 2009 L’Aquila-Italy events. For misfit evaluation, seismological parameters include amplitude, duration and frequency content, while engineering parameters contain spectral acceleration, velocity and seismic input energy. Overall, the same trend between both misfits is observed. All misfits for Erzincan and Duzce located on basins are larger than those corresponding to L’Aquila mostly placed on stiff sites. The engineering misfits, particularly in terms of input energy measures, are larger than seismological misfits. In summary, the proposed misfit evaluation methodology seems useful to evaluate simulations for engineering practice.

Successive earthquakes of Kocaeli and Duzce within three months indicated that even the survived lifeline structures such as bridges under the former event may have damage or collapse potential under the latter event due to their possible stiffness degradation. It is thus important that a rigorous seismic analysis of such structures should account for the effect of prior earthquake damage. For this purpose, nonlinear seismic analysis of a reinforced concrete bridge structure has been carried out under both single and multiple earthquake ground motions. Behavior and response evaluation of the bridge piers subjected to such motions have been discussed in terms of using both flexure-axial and flexure-shear-axial interaction models. Analytical results show that the stiffness degradation under multiple earthquake ground motions is more pronounced than that under single earthquake ground motion. In addition, comparison of the response without and with shear demonstrates that shear deformation is of significance. The response with shear exhibits the increase in displacement demand and decrease in lateral force carrying capacity, leading to a decrease in energy dissipation capacity. It is concluded that seismic analysis of reinforced concrete bridge structure should account for the effect of multiple earthquake ground motions to assess the demand on such structure properly.

Evaluation of the liquefaction potential of a liquefaction-prone area is important for geotechnical earthquake engineering, both for assessment for site selection and for planning and new constructions. The liquefaction potential index for the city of Duzce in northwestern Turkey using the empirical relationships between the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) and the Shear Wave Velocity Test (VS) was investigated in this study. After,VSvalues based on SPT blow counts (N) were obtained from the alluvial soils in the city of Duzce. The liquefaction potential indexes of the soils were determined using the empirical relationships between the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) and the Shear Wave Velocity Test (VS) calculating for a probable earthquake ofMW=7.2. In the result of the study, the liquefaction potential index (LPI) values were interpreted and compared evaluating the SPTNblow count values obtained from the study area. Based on the empirical relationships assumed for the soils, it was observed that there was not a perfect agreement between the results of the two methods. The liquefaction potential index values using the SPTNblow counts were found to be lower than those of theVSmethod.

The increase in the wealth of information on the seismotectonic structure of the Marmara region after two devastating earthquakes (M7.6 Izmit and M7.2 Duzce events) in the year 1999 opened the way for the reassessment of the probabilistic seismic hazard in the light of new datasets. In this connection, the most recent findings and outputs of different national and international projects concerning seismicity and fault characterization in terms of geometric and kinematic properties are exploited in the present study to build an updated seismic hazard model. A revised fault segmentation model, alternative earthquake rupture models under a Poisson and renewal assumptions, as well as recently derived global and regional ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are put together in the present model to assess the seismic hazard in the region. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is conducted based on characteristic earthquake modelling for the fault segments capable of producing large earthquakes and smoothed seismicity modelling for the background smaller magnitude earthquake activity. The time-independent and time-dependent seismic hazard results in terms of spatial distributions of three ground-shaking intensity measures (peak ground acceleration, PGA, and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral accelerations (SA) on rock having 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years) as well as the corresponding hazard curves for selected cities are shown and compared with previous studies.

Erbil city characterized by the risk of earthquakes generated by Zagros-Taurus Belt. The central objective of this study is to obtain a compatible input ground motion within the seismicity of Erbil city since which is considered an essential component of seismic risk evaluation and vulnerability studies. The real records obtained from the online database Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Next Generation Attenuation. Four sets of ground motion selection and modification methods proposed to obtain fifteen records, where each record scaled and matched with the defined target spectra and seismic characteristics in Erbil city. Based on the greatest number of repetition and different events, ten compatible ground motions with earthquake name and NGA record number are selected: Gazli_Ussr (#126), Imperial Vally_06 (#183), El Mayor-Cucapah_Maxico (#5827), Christchurch_New Zealand (#8124), Imperial Valley (#6), Darfield_NewZealand (#6893), Duzce Turkey (#1602), Northridge_01 (#1082), Loma Prieta (#761), and Spitak_Armenia (#730). Seismosoft application utilized to obtain the graphs of acceleration, velocity, and displacement time histories for three components, in addition to determine the important parameters to characterize the amplitude, frequency content, and duration of the selected ground motion.

The current study aimed to examine two potential positive outcomes of an earthquake experience, namely posttraumatic growth (PTG) and earthquake preparedness behavior. Variables that may be related to PTG and earthquake preparedness behavior were examined after earthquake victimization by using two models, which were the Person Relative to Event (PrE) Model (Mulilis &
Duval, 1997) to understand earthquake preparedness behavior, and Model of Life Crises and Personal Growth (Schaefer &
Moos, 1992) to understand PTG. In order to examine earthquake preparedness behavior, the roles of demographic variables, event-related variables, cognitive appraisal factors, and coping strategies, and in order to examine PTG, environmental factors, system factors, event related factors, earthquake specific coping and cognitive appraisal factors, and general ways of coping responses factors were examined. Data was collected by a questionnaire consisting of three parts. The first part was a socio-demographic information form. The second part of the questionnaire included set of items designed to examine past earthquake experience, the severity of past earthquake experience and reasons to prepare for a possible future earthquake. The third part of the questionnaire consisted of eight scales. These scales were Ways of Coping Inventory (WCI) to measure coping strategies used in stressful situations, Revised and Translated Mulilis-Lippa Earthquake Preparedness Scale (MLEPS) to measure the level of earthquake preparedness behavior, perceived difficulty and perceived effectiveness of being prepared, Religiousness Scale (RS) to measure the level of religious resources of participants, The Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support (MSPSS) to measure perceived adequacy of social support, The Quality of Life Scale (WHOQOL) to measure the quality of life of the participants, Psychological Well-Being Scale to measure the level of psychological well-being of participants, Traumatic Stress Symptom Checklist (TSSC) to measure posttraumatic stress, and Post-traumatic Growth Inventory (PTGI) to measure stress-related growth. One hundred ninety nine adults (105 females and 94 males with an age range of 18 to 73) were participants of the study. The participants were from Kaynasli, Dü
zce. The participants were selected on the basis of their age, gender, and the type of their houses. They were contacted through home visits. In the result section, the level of the different categories of earthquake preparedness behavior, self-efficacy and outcome efficacy
the reasons of preparedness and nonpreparedness for earthquakes, the variables related to earthquake preparedness behavior and PTG were presented. Hierarchical regression analysis results revealed that perceived responsibility to prepare for earthquakes, outcome efficacy, and problem-focused coping were positively and posttraumatic stress was negatively related to earthquake preparedness behavior. As a result of the regression analysis, it was found that being married, perceived social support, well-being, problem-focused coping, and seeking social support coping were significant predictors of the level of PTG. The results of regression analysis also showed that, general problem focused coping was more efficient than earthquake specific active coping after earthquake victimization for the development of PTG. The results of the study were discussed within the relevant literature, shortcomings of the current study, clinical implications and suggestions for future research were proposed.

The goal of this study is to develop probabilistically based empirical correlations for seismic performance assessment of buried pipelines. Within the scope of these research efforts, pipeline performance case histories have been compiled from Duzce city after Duzce earthquake. The characteristics of Duzce water supply and distribution system with the earthquake damage on the system were studied. Correlations of the damage patterns with the water distribution system, earthquake and geotechnical characteristics have been developed. Moreover spatial distributions of the earthquake effects havebeen transferred into Geographic Information System (GIS) format. As a result of these studies, it was intended to define the seismic, geotechnical and structural parameters which may explain the spatial variability of the observed seismic pipeline hazard. For the development of such correlations, a maximum likelihood framework for the probabilistic assessment of seismically induced buried pipeline performance is described. A database, consisting of postearthquake field observations of buried pipeline performance after Duzce earthquake in conjunction with in-situ index test results, is used for the development of probabilistically based seismic pipeline performance correlations. As a result of careful processing of available data, the variables of the problem are selected as: liquefaction susceptibility of soil, thickness of soft soil layer if it exists, peak ground acceleration and estimated ground deformations. A limit state function is defined in terms of these variables. Repairs on the pipeline system due to earthquake are compiled with the surrounding soil and earthquake parameters and the correlations of pipeline performances with the mentioned variables are determined. Different sets of fragility curves are developed for seismic pipeline performance problem, representing various sources of uncertainty that are intrinsic to the problem. Such information is believed to be useful to utility system operators in planning a seismic retrofit or upgrade program for existing pipeline systems.

Liquefaction of granular soil deposits can have extremely detrimental effects on the stability of embankment dams, natural soil slopes, and mine tailings. The residual or liquefied shear strength of the liquefiable soils is a very important parameter when evaluating stability and deformation of level and sloping ground. Current procedures for estimating the liquefied shear strength are based on extensive laboratory testing programs or from the back-analysis of failures where liquefaction was involved and in-situ testing data was available. All available procedures utilize deterministic methods for estimation and selection of the liquefied shear strength. Over the past decade, there has been an increasing trend towards analyzing geotechnical problems using probability and reliability. This study presents procedures for assessing the liquefied shear strength of cohesionless soil deposits within a risk-based framework. Probabilistic slope stability procedures using reliability methods and Monte Carlo Simulations are developed to incorporate uncertainties associated with geometrical and material parameters. The probabilistic methods are applied to flow liquefaction case histories from the 1999 Kocaeli/Duzce, Turkey Earthquake, where extensive liquefaction was observed. The methods presented in this paper should aid in making better decisions about the design and rehabilitation of structures constructed of or atop liquefiable soil deposits.
Master of Science

The North Anatolian Fault System is one of the most important active strike-slip fault systems in the world. The August 17, 1999 and November 12, 1999 earthquakes at Kocaeli and Dü
zce are the most recent devastating earthquakes. The study area lies in the Eastern Marmara Region and is bounded by the 28.55-33.75 E and 40.00-41.20 N, latitude and longitude coordinates, respectively. There are numerous studies conducted in the study area in terms of active tectonics and seismicity, however studies are scale dependent. Therefore, a comprehensive literature survey regarding active tectonics of the region was conducted and these previous studies were combined with the lineaments extracted from 10 ASTER images via principle component analysis manual extraction method. Therefore, a line seismic source model for the Eastern Marmara region was compiled mainly based on major seismic events of instrumental period. The seismicity of these line segments were compared with the instrumental period earthquake catalogue compiled by Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute with a homogeneous magnitude scale between 1900 and 2005. Secondary event and completeness of this catalogue was checked. The final catalogue was matched with the compiled seismic source for historical seismicity and source-scenario-segment-weight relationships were developed. This developed seismic source model was tested by a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Dü
zce city center by utilizing four different ground motion prediction equations. It was observed that Gutenberg-Richter seismicity parameter &lsquo
b&rsquo
does not have significant effect over the model, however change in the segmentation model have a low but certain influence.

The area struck by the November, 12, 1999, Mw 7.1 earthquake that ruptured the Düzce segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) was investigated. In order to document the Düzce seismogenic fault characteristics, segment of the North Anatolian fault, systematic geological, geomorphological and paleoseismological analyses were integrated in this thesis. A detailed mapping and study of the 1999 earthquake coseismic ruptures and of the short- (Holocene) long-term (Pliocene-Pleistocene) tectonic landforms, first, in a key area, then, along the whole Düzce fault was carried out. The major objective were to compare the detailed coseismic surface expressions with the short/long-term morphology and structural architecture of the Düzce fault zone. This was accomplished to explore the persistency or evolution through time of the active fault setting, at the surface, that could highlight characteristics of the seismic source, at depth. Along the key area was possible to zoom in a scale-independent en-échelon arrangement of the coseismic surface ruptures and to evidence by the comparison with the short/long-term geomorphic expression of the Düzce Fault near the 1999 ruptures, that: 1) the principal slip zone at depth accommodates the bulk of the displacement during an individual rupture event and 2) may stay localized through many rupture episodes with persistent geometry and kinematics. At the same time, an old and complex fault arrangement has been mapped, partially coinciding with the 1999 rupturing fault, whose relationships with the coseismic fault systems suggest an evolution of the fault pattern trough time, with a tendency to simplify a geometric complexity into a straighter, mature trace. Along the whole area, also, the older complex fault system, which involves a wider zone of deformation, was identified and the structural pattern of the simple 1999 coseismic fault trace was analyzed at the different scales of observation. Overall, two different sections of the Düzce segment were recognized: a western section, where the coseismic fault trace has a staircase trajectory and reactivated part of the older fault system; an eastern section, where the coseismic fault trace shows a straight trajectory and cross-cuts the older and complex fault system. The Düzce fault sections may represent different stages of the segment evolutionary tendency towards a simpler mature trace, as a mechanically more favorable setting. The western section of the Düzce fault segment splays out from a restraining bend of the Izmit (Karadere) fault segment of the NAFZ, and forms a releasing fault wedge. By comparing the coseismic surface deformation field with the observed long-term morphology it is clear that the present landforms and setting are the result of 1999-type coseismic deformation repeating through several seismic cycles. Because of the mechanical interaction of the faults in the release junction, the western section of the Düzce fault undergoes a transtensional strain field that may justify and cause its complexities to be a steady state of the structural arrangement. The boundary at the surface between the two portions of the Düzce fault is not only a surface characteristic but it separates at depth a portion of fault plane characterized by a big single asperity, to the east, from a portion of plane with lower slip, to the west. Thus the peculiar arrangement of the Izmit (Karadere) and Düzce fault segments may permanently control the difference in behavior of the two portions of Düzce fault and furthermore control rupture propagation and fault loading. Under this light, the Izmit/Düzce release fault junction (1) may produce an unfavorable setting for the build up of asperities in the western part of the Düzce segment also in the future and (2) could have delayed the propagation of the 1999 August Izmit rupture on the Düzce segment that ruptured on November 1999 along the asperity of its eastern section. These results highlight that the surface geological data contain the potential for integrating and completing the information for imaging structures also at a seismogenic depth. The integrated investigation of short/long-term tectonic morphologies and structural pattern offers a noteworthy frame to interpret the coseismic rupture kinematics and clarifies their complexities. Moreover, for a full understanding of the principal slip zone at depth, this case study shows the importance to define the strain distribution pattern and evolution of surface rupturing faults. The geological and geomorphological map along the fault trace permitted to analyze the spectacular tectonically driven cumulative landforms and the drainage pattern settings, in order to provide new estimates on the Quaternary slip rate of this part of the active transform margin of North Anatolia. As offset geomorphic markers, right-hand stream deflections and remnant of an old alluvial fan modeled by fluvial terraces were reconstructed and described. The streams are deflected for a total of about 100 m and the onset of the offset was radiocarbon dated about 7000 yr BP. The two documented and correlated Late Pleistocene, terrace risers are offset of about 300 and 890 m, respectively. These terrace risers were dated by means of Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) method about 21 000 yr BP and 60 000 yr BP. These ages and offsets translate to a constant rate of deformation of the Düzce Fault, at different time scales, of 14.0 ± 1.8 mm/yr and disproves a time-variable model at least for the last 60 000 yr. On this light, considering the GPS-measured strain accumulation due to the plate motion along this part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, the Düzce Fault importantly participates to the North Anatolian margin deformation and assumes a relevant role in the seismic hazard of the area. To learn about recurrence of large earthquakes on this fault, paleoseismological trench investigations were undertaken. On the basis of sedimentary and structural relations observed in the trench walls, evidence for repeated surface faulting paleoearthquakes pre-dating the 1999 event were found. By merging information obtained from all the trenches it is possible to reconstruct the seismic history of the Düzce fault for the past millennium. Coeval events between different trench sites were correlated under the assumption that, similarly to the 1999 event, paleoearthquakes ruptured the whole Düzce fault. Besides the 1999 earthquake, prior surface faulting earthquakes are dated as follows: penultimate event, possibly at the end of 19th century; third event, possibly close to AD 1700; fourth event, AD 1185-1640; fifth event, possibly AD800-1000. According to the above results, the AD1719, AD1878 and AD 1894 historical earthquakes, may have ruptured the Düzce fault and not the faults they are usually associated to or, alternatively, a cascade of events occurred on the Düzce and nearby faults (similarly to the Izmit and Düzce 1999 earthquakes). On this basis can be inferred an average recurrence time of ~300 yrs for large surface faulting events on the Düzce fault. Moreover, assuming that the slip produced by the 1999 earthquake is characteristic, the Düzce fault presents a strain release model, with a not perfectly periodic interseismic interval, and an average strain accumulation of 13.3 mm/yr, comparable with the slip rate results obtained by the geomorphic marker analysis.
This work was supported by the European Commission Project Relief: Large earthquake faulting and implications for seismic hazard assessment in Europe: The Izmit-Düzce earthquake sequence of 1999, Turkey, Mw 7.4, 7.1, EVG1-CT-2002-00069.
Unpublished
open

This chapter details the findings and analysis for operative adaptive systems. Four earthquake response and recovery systems included in this study fall in this initial category of operative adaptive systems: the 1999 Duzce, Turkey, earthquake; the 2009 Padang, Indonesia, earthquake; the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear breach; and the 2015 Nepal earthquakes. All four response systems share the characteristic of seeking to adapt rapidly to an environment suddenly altered by a major earthquake. Yet, the capacity of each governmental system to extend the process of adaptation beyond the immediate response into a newly re-stabilized recovery system varied markedly, depending on the scale of the destruction incurred, the scope of reconstruction required, and the rate of change over time needed for recovery. Moreover, while each of these four cases exhibited some capacity in technical and social areas, none had strong midlevel networks that could bridge national and local functions easily.