Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Dry Goods Economist »

Economics in the United States in the 1920s and 1930s was notable for the richness of its methodological and theoretical approaches. Encompassing the peak period of American institutionalism, these years also witnessed a recurrent debate over the proper scope and method of economics which was bracketed by a minor methodenstreit in the 1920s and the measurement-withouttheory dispute of the late 1940s. In retrospect it is apparent which lines of thought would dominate economic discourse in later decades. At the time, however, this future was not as clear. A late 1920s evaluation by Paul Homan of the state of contemporary economics concluded that economists “seem in our own day to be separated by more impassable barriers of thought than at any time in the past” (Homan 1928, p. 10). In looking beyond “the present impasse,” as he called it, Homan concluded that “whether economics in the future shall consist of a body of doctrines, or a body of facts scientifically ascertained, or a technique, or more or less of one and the other, is on the laps of the gods” (ibid., pp. 466-67).

Caroline Webb was interviewed onstage as one of the keynote sessions at the SGCP International Conference of Coaching Psychology 2019. Caroline’s work has been featured inHarvard Business Review, Forbes, The Economist, The New York Times, The Financial TimesandThe Washington Post,amongst other publications, but she is most widely known as the best-selling author of the book, How to Have A Good Day.

The article argued to the contrary that at least insofar as organ transplants were concerned, this general assumption lied 180 degrees away from the truth. The first reaction of most concerned people, at the prospect of buying and selling human body parts, was one of revulsion. And, yet, this was the tried and true means that used for supplying more pedestrian goods and services. The article was the economic principles responsible for adequately making available to us such as items such as apples, shoes, and gardening services were the best ones in this case as well. The method was to argue that the institutions responsible for most goods and services in the economy that the last best hope for solving the problems that faced transplants of human body parts. The researchers consulted google scholar and mises.org and generated in this manner and cited almost a dozen publications which discussed the relevant subject matter and commented on several of them. It finds that Pro-organ sellers have a long way to go, but with determination and logic, one day the world will find a place for organs in the free-markets. And, then, many lives will be saved.

The paper presents the author’s view on the formation of economics of culture which was acceded to the neoclassical theory as a branch science only in the second half of XXth century with the inherent law of «price disease» causing deficiency of income of cultural goods producers. The present stage of the development of this science is determined by the modern theory of economic growth where the hypothesis of dependence of total factor productivity on intangible assets is presented as an innovation allowing discovering inner resources of culture and other creative economy branches which fundamentally change their position in the economic world. The question is about the economic valuation of the results of cultural activity, including copyrights that were transformed into intellectual property. At the same time, the article formulates a contrary assessment of the concept of cultural industries, which can only become an additional reason for the financial authorities to reduce the amount of budget subsidies to producers of cultural goods.

Approaches to the estimation of shadow prices generally assume that all but one market function correctly. However, multiple market failures are common in developing countries. We present a theoretical model and an empirical strategy to estimate the shadow price of a subsistence good in an economy where labor markets fail. Our results show that: 1) among subsistence producers, the shadow price of this good must be greater than or equal to the market price, and equal to it for surplus growers; and 2) current methods create biases when the otherwise-perfect-markets assumption is violated. The propositions are tested using a representative survey for rural Mexico. We find that the shadow wage is below that of the market (MXN $93.2/day vs. MXN $132.3/day), and that the shadow price for subsistence corn is over ten times greater than its market price (MXN $32.37/kg vs. MXN $3.19/kg). Unbiased shadow price estimates for subsistence goods help to overcome the limitations of current income poverty measures: their overestimation of the purchasing power of subsistence households and their underestimation of the value of subsistence goods. In rural Mexico, current practice underestimates the population in food poverty by 2%; an additional 9% has income above the poverty line yet fail to meet the utilization dimension of food security.

Sixty years ago, Samuelson’s “Pure Theory of Public Expenditure” expounded the classification of goods, and Bain’s “Economies of Scale, Concentration and the Condition of Entry in Twenty Manufacturing Industries” expounded the structure-conduct-performance paradigm. To the present day, rivalry in- and excludability from consumption classify goods, and subadditivity and irreversibility in production classify market structure. Opportunity costs of production in the form of prospective sunk costs incentivise investment and production, and the sunk costs themselves induce subadditivities, specialization and convexity of the marginal rate of technical substitution. Opportunity costs in consumption are determined by the marginal costs of replacement. In light of the recent Nobel price award to Jean Tirole, we revisit some of the forgotten discussions and clarify some of the terminology under a more economic framework of opportunity costs.

We are all familiar with Donald Horne's descriptive phrase “The Lucky Country” as applied to Australia. It was coined during the resources boom years of the late 'sixties. It referred to the luck we have to be living in a country so rich in mineral resources – all we had to do was to dig it out of the ground and sell the raw stuff to equally boom economies overseas. Actually those economies then converted the stuff into manufactured goods – cars, fridges, television sets, plastic toys and so on, which they then flogged back to us … and we could afford to buy – much of the money our wealth generated went to make already comfortably-off people more comfortable - not much went to the not so comfortable or to the really poor. But in line with the optimistic theories in economics, the trickle effect of the boom years would ensure that the poor too got a gnaw at the bones thrown to them; distribution of wealth already distorted, stayed distorted. Then came Gough and a new era was about to dawn, the new wealth would be used toward producing a more egalitarian society and an enhanced infra structure of welfare sevices, a spanking new health service, a broadening of the social security system, more job opportunities, free tertiary education, the Australian Assistance Plan, and the list went on. But history has a mischievous, even misanthropic turn of mind, and no sooner was Gough crowned than the resources market turned sour and the money started to dry up, the dream faded and you know the rest. The Fraser years were years of cutback and belt-tightening, of dour and unglamorous attempts to keep the ship afloat. No more vision of building a new Jerusalem in Canberra's green and pleasant land.

Suatu perusahaan memiliki tujuan utama yaitu untuk memenuhi kebutuhan konsumen sehingga dapat memperoleh keuntungan. PT XYZ adalah perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang pengolahan susu sapi (<em>dairy manufacture</em>) yang tentu saja mempunyai tujuan untuk memperoleh keuntungan. Optimalisasi penempatan persediaan barang jadi (<em>finished goods inventory</em>) merupakan salah satu upaya dalam meningkatkan keuntungan perusahaan. Saat ini, penempatan <em>finished goods</em> (FG) di Gudang PT. XYZ kurang optimal karena penempatannya dilakukan secara acak dan belum memperhatikan frekuensi perpindahan, sehingga produk <em>fast moving</em> harus menempuh perjalanan jauh untuk pengambilannya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membuat usulan <em>layout</em> penempatan <em>finished goods</em> optimal berdasarkan metode <em>class-based storage</em> dengan analisis ABC dalam mengetahui klasifikasi produk PT XYZ. Tahapan penelitian dimulai dengan menghitung frekuensi perpindahan, mengklasifikasikan produk berdasarkan frekuensi perpindahan, menentukan jumlah tempat penyimpanan, menghitung jarak perpindahan, dan membuat dua usulan <em>layout</em> dengan pertimbangan slot dan blok. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa berdasarkan frekuensi perpindahan, produk dikelompokkan menjadi kelas A (<em>fast moving</em>) yang terdiri dari 9 produk; kelas B (<em>medium moving</em>) yang terdiri dari 17 produk; serta kelas C (<em>slow moving</em>) yang terdiri dari 26 produk. Usulan <em>layout</em> yang terpilih yaitu penempatan berdasarkan slot karena memberikan jarak perpindahan sebesar 91.681,09 m atau 4,35% lebih pendek dari jarak sebelumnya

States interact closely with each other and the economies of each of them depend on various factors affecting them. The modern world cannot be imagined without the interaction of the economies of different countries. The XXI century can be safely called the heyday of globalization. Every day there is an exchange of goods, services, experience and information. The politics of one country somehow affects the politics of another country. Therefore, problems arising in the modern world within one country find their influence on other countries interacting with it. Minimizing risks and predicting the outcome of any crisis or conflict solves many problems and allows you to prevent new problems arising from them.

The paper analyzes the norms and laws of exchange of goods in the international trade of Ukraine under barter agreements. Barter operations mean operations during which business entities exchange a certain amount of goods, works, services for an equivalent amount of other goods without the use of monetary payments. Barter transactions usually become popular in countries with unstable economies, where there is a shortage of both domestic and foreign currency. The main reason for using barter agreements in foreign trade is currency problems, such as its scarcity, instability, etc. The difficulties associated with the accounting of such operations in accounting are also considered. In accordance with the requirements, all transactions of exchange of goods in international trade are formalized by appropriate barter contracts. In case of violation of the terms of import of goods, performance of works and provision of services, a fine is applied, which is calculated for each day of delay. The main aspect of barter agreements is reaching an agreement on prices and volumes of supplies of export-import goods, as well as a profitable determination of the equivalent of the exchange of goods. Today market environment, some companies may have a limited amount of cash to operate normally. In such cases, the exchange of goods may be the only way for them to sell their products and obtain other goods necessary for production. An important aspect of a barter agreement is reaching an agreement on prices and volumes of export-import of goods, as well as establishing a favorable equivalence for the exchange of goods. In these market conditions, some businesses may not have enough working capital to operate normally. As a result, barter often becomes their only means of selling their products and acquiring others necessary for their production activities.

碩士
國立高雄海洋科技大學
海事資訊科技研究所
105
Nowadays, under the trend of opening and liberalization of international financial market, the linkage of various economic variables will become more and more closely, and will increase the interdependence directly or indirectly.The global economic pulse to discuss the international stock market trend, most of the focus on the broader market index and the exchange rate between the analysis, but for the traditional industry and transport industry, the impact of the analysis but rarely discussed. This paper will be used to explore the relationship between the international market price of precious nonferrous metals (the LME London aluminum futures market) and the Baltic Dry Index to distinguish it from past research.

The period covered by this volume, roughly 800-1450, was one of enormous change in the way people lived in their houses. Medieval people could call a grand castle, a humble thatched hut, or anything in between home, but houses were more than physical spaces. They changed according to technological developments, climatic needs, geological limitations and economic resources. They were also moral units that were themselves symbolic, economic, gendered, and social. At the beginning of our period, the movement of people, goods, and ideas, and the need for defense against some of this movement had an impact on how and where people lived. The codification of laws shaped how people understood the physical integrity of their homes, the reception they should give to those who wanted to enter, and their identification with the house itself. As European economies expanded in the twelfth century, householders increasingly had access to items that changed their day-to-day lives within their houses. This volume argues that through a house and its uses, occupants created, sustained, and understood their relationship to each other and their society.

E. J. Mishan, an iconoclastic economist who has taught at such schools as the London School of Economics and the New School for Social Research, is in this volume a provocateur, smashing staunchly held beliefs of the right (free trade and common markets are good for the economy), and the left (local jobs are always lost when factories close down, pay disparity between men and women signifies discrimination). He also pokes holes in the accepted wisdom held by all, arguing for example that economic growth does not necessarily improve lives. Those who believe the fallacies Mishan exposes to the light of reason in this book are, however, neither ignorant nor careless. The fallacies are all plausible, and intelligent people can be forgiven for believing them. Mishan simply wants readers to see these thirteen popular, persistent fallacies for what they are: Humbug. Mishan’s scintillating text is apolitical. In arguing that immigration does not benefit a country's economy, for example, he is not arguing in favor of restricting immigration. Rather, his goal is to test the assumptions behind the dearly held positions of both the left and the right or to expose what he calls the breathtaking fatuity that counts as wisdom these days. Mishan wants to interject common sense and logic into today's debates over the economy and, especially, the political arguments that translate into legislation that has a negative impact on people. Mishan’s ideas breathe new life into debates gone stale by ideology. As he notes, the fallacies in this volume travel in the highest circles, from debates in Congress to the pages of the Wall Street Journal, Time, and The Economist. Most are things everybody knows. He hopes, therefore, to expose the concerned citizen to the shock-treatment of discovering that much of what passes for conventional economic wisdom is in fact fallacious. As the Economist pointed out in its glowing review of the first edition of this book, Dr. Mishan has written the perfect book for anyone wishing to start the study of economics.

AbstractIn this chapter, I taxonomize early modern modes of relating self-interest and the common good. I discuss Protestant natural law theory, republicanism, utilitarianism, and—my main focus—Scottish social thought from Adam Smith and others. My aim is twofold. First, historically, I lay out the conceptual field for the early modern relation of self-interest and the common good while giving special attention to Scottish innovations. Second, from a philosophical point of view, I argue that the Scottish theory of the common good offers some of the best conceptual resources for considering the relation of individual and community in present-day large, industrial nation-states and empires. More specifically, I claim that the Scots develop a concept of the common good that is (1) more social and economic than its alternatives, (2) more systemic and less dependent on the psychology and intentions of individuals, and (3) less tied to thick notions of community (including the state) and more amenable to empire. I conclude by bringing out the significance of these claims for our thinking about self-interest, the common good, and community.

AbstractThis chapter examines the pivotal role of food in realising the ambitions of the global agendas of climate change adaptation (CCA), disaster risk reduction (DRR) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The chapter advocates for a reduction in red (mammal) meat consumption and provides evidence that doing so will directly contribute to the achievement of seven of the 17 SDGs: Goal 2) Zero hunger; Goal 3) Good health and wellbeing; Goal 6) Clean water and sanitation; Goal 12) Responsible consumption and production; Goal 13) Climate action; Goal 14) Life below water, and Goal 15) Life on land. The chapter plots out a path to improved global sustainability, with greater societal resilience through changes in global food consumption choices. Citing the EAT-Lancet Commission, the chapter proposes that government policies and subsidies will need to be redirected away from harmful agricultural practices and towards ones that are better for our health, for our environment and for our economies.

AbstractAlthough writing about the importance of food systems for urban planners, Jerome Kaufman influenced the thinking of policy leaders and practitioners across the world including Dr. Wayne Roberts, the author of this chapter. A remarkable food policy leader in his own right, Dr. Wayne Roberts authored this chapter shortly before his passing, reflecting on Kaufman’s influence on the field and his own work. Roberts wrote that “the lack of imagination [in city government] resulting from professional over-specialization is a major barrier to more interactive conversation, learning, and partnership among city planners and Good Food advocates.” Roberts critiques the narrow ‘supply chain’ or ‘nutritionism’ approaches to understanding urban food systems. Rather, he argues that a broader view where “food’s many contributions to personal, psychological, cultural, spiritual, social, environmental and economic development of people, and the mooring of people in their time and place” ought to drive how cities view food. Roberts’ policy leadership in Toronto and Kaufman’s scholarship represent the best of what is possible in municipal policy through open-minded thinking and strategic action. This chapter, Dr. Roberts’ last piece of formal writing, leaves readers with rich ideas for developing people-centered municipal food policy. To learn more about food policy in Toronto, please contact the corresponding author.

Abstract Many economic aspects of modern life are taken for granted today in North America and Europe. Very few people are actually involved in primary food production; most people do not harvest their own crops or butcher their own meat (except on a very small scale). Likewise, people do not produce their own clothes, and even fewer actually create the fabric used in clothes. This disassociation with primary production is a hallmark of the in- dustrialized world. To understand ancient Roman economy, it is necessary first to understand this major difference between modern industrialized life and ancient Roman life. Other than the very wealthy, most Roman households were very involved in the day-to-day production of food and clothing. There were markets where goods could be bought and sold, but they certainly did not play as important a role in supplying a family with their needs as stores do today. This chapter describes some of the major elements of the Roman economy.

Abstract The economics of transition is no longer the topic. The transformation of formerly planned economies into market economies is a much less fashionable area of operation for ‘research commuters’ than it was just a few years ago. Some of the ‘gods’ (an expression used at the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance the day before a famous Western economist landed in Kiev), flying in daily to dispense policy advice to the new governments of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet republics, have since long abandoned the region. There are far fewer articles in the newspapers devoted to the issue, and fewer large conferences organized around the world with big names on the agendas. This is, no doubt, an ideal scenario to carry out serious research on transition.

This chapter explains why it was that liberation theology was born and able to flourish very widely in the apparently uncongenial environment of the Cold War. The answer is fourfold. First, the theological architects of liberation were able to draw on wider trends in social and political theology observable from the late 1960s. The second key factor is that one geotectonic upheaval in Latin American politics—the Cuban revolution that reached its climax with the overthrow of Fulgencio Batista by Fidel Castro in January of 1959—sent shock waves reverberating throughout the Catholic world. Third, the idea of liberation took its material shape from the growing disillusionment that set in during the 1950s and 1960s with the optimistic postwar economic theories of development prescribed by northern economists as the solution to the needs of impoverished Latin American and African countries seeking to achieve economic takeoff into “modernization.” The fourth and last answer relates to the prominent role played by students in most of the radical protest and countercultural movements of the 1960s and 1970s. The chapter also examines the markedly different contours that a Christian theology of liberation assumed in the context of Palestine after the creation of the state of Israel in 1948, and more especially after the further loss of Palestinian territory effected by the Six-Day War of June of 1967.

The importance of global public goods (GPGs) is increasing every day. As a result, the concept become an important part of international policymaking. There is a huge literature on the definition and classification of GPGs, as well as the financing problems of them. GPGs are generally financed through the development aids given by international organizations and some developed countries. Literature is generally concentrated on the determination of the amount of aids devoted to different categories of GPGs, such as environment, health, peace-keeping, and knowledge. Differently from the literature, a new and more general classification is also used in this chapter. The main sectors included in the analysis are social infrastructure and services, economic infrastructure and services, production sectors, multi-sector/gross cutting, and humanitarian aid. For the first time in the literature, principal components and cluster analysis methodologies were used to determine the performance of the countries providing official development aids in this study.

Abstract Good governance is good development. It is not only conducive to economic growth and higher incomes (its instrumental value) but even more importantly leads to greater freedoms from violence and injustice (its intrinsic value). Governance is about the process of governing a society to provide its citizens such freedoms. Good governance essentially comprises four basic elements: predictability, transparency, participation, and accountability. Measuring governance and its impact is a complex process. Given the wide range of interpretations of what governance means, it is helpful to consider measures of governance in two broad categories: de jure or rules-based and de facto or outcomes-based. While the de jure indicators are a useful starting point, at the end of the day, de facto realities are what matters. Do higher incomes lead to better governance? Studies show quite convincingly that the causality works the other way around, that better governance leads to higher per capita incomes and better social outcomes as well. This has an important policy implication: countries cannot attempt to get rich first and then focus on improving governance. There is evidence around the world of countries doing well economically even when they do not score well on governance measures. However, evidence also points to such growth not being sustainable in the long run.

Abstract The emergence of online platforms has radically changed how goods and services are produced, supplied, and consumed. Online platforms became the primary vehicle of information flow between market players and now play a pivotal role in the economy and society. The magnitude of benefits brought by platforms cannot be overstated. Day-to-day benefits and gains range from easier communication thanks to social media and new types of online services, to the convenience and reduced transaction costs related to online purchases and home delivery, to the ubiquitous access to information offered by Internet search engines. But at the same time, as a small number of tech companies grow in dominance in the globally integrated business environment, non-negligible downsides have emerged: platforms have a great potential to cause harm. Given the complexity and the novelty of their business dynamics, market failures are particularly tricky to identify and address. It is the job of policymakers to verify whether the current regulatory framework is still adequate to ensure the correct functioning of markets and, if not, to propose efficient solutions. Updating competition policy and regulatory tools may be amongst those.

Small business as a form of business activity is phenomenon of present-day market economy. This is an independent sector of economy that makes goods, services, provides revenue receipts to budgets of all levels. The problem of business development is a pressing challenge for Ukraine as for all countries with market economy. In conditions of implementing Tax Code of Ukraine the topicality of small business development increases, because for stable pumping up of national and local budgets creation of conceptually new system of tax administration (taxes paid by small business) is needed that would provide gradual transition from fiscal pressure to simplified administration procedures using modern methods of information analysis. The article reviews dynamics of budget receipts. Factors reducing fiscal on small business are studied and measures for improvement of tax service for small economic entities - good faith taxpayers are proposed.

Abstract. Dry processes represent promising approaches in forming technology to improve environmental aspects and human health by avoiding harmful substances and additives of conventional lubricants. Among many different approaches for dry forming investigated within the priority program SPP 1676, this paper addresses the use of volatile media as lubricants such as CO2 or N2. These volatile media are introduced directly into the interstice between sheet metal and tool surface via microinjectors. Indeed, this does not contradict the principle dry forming approach, as dry forming is defined as a process in which no residues are left on the surfaces [1]. This is ensured by the complete evaporation of the volatile media. The general feasibility of this novel tribological system has already been demonstrated in previous research work. However, despite good tribological results, the manufacturing costs of the required tool inserts and the media consumption per component are not yet economically competitive with conventional tribological systems. Therefore, this paper focuses on new designs of dry deep-drawing tools utilising volatile lubricants, considering the economics of different manufacturing processes.

Spent fuel dry storage technology is one of the most important intermediate storage technologies for spent fuel, because of its high security, good economic and easy to expand the scale. This article aims at designing a spent fuel dry storage cask which can contain 21 FA300 spent fuel assemblies. The spent fuel dry storage cask is designed as concrete cask structure, which has the advantages of low manufacturing cost and simple manufacturing technology. Ventilation channels are designed for heating transfer, because the concrete is not a good thermal conductivity material. And labyrinth structure is designed for the ventilation channel to reduce the cavity streaming. Radiation sources in spent fuel assemblies are mainly produced from fission products, actinides and their daughters located inside the effective fuel region, and other activation products in structure materials, which are calculated by ORIGEN. The source and geometry of this problem are complex, and this is a real world deep penetration and streaming problem. Discrete ordinate method has great advantage in solving the deep penetration problem. Based on three-dimensional discrete ordinate code TORT, radiation shielding design method for spent fuel dry storage cask is studied, including main shield cask, cover lid, and ventilation channel. The results show that this spent fuel dry storage cask containing 21 FA300 spent fuel (cooling time: 10 years) assemblies can satisfy the requirement of dose rate limits in GB18871.

Along with the rapidly developing industrialization and technology, companies have moved to markets outside the regions they usually serve and have tried to supply different regions of the world. This trend has been increasing day by day and the world has transformed into a single market. With this globalization process, the trade volume between the countries and the continents has reached unprecedented numbers which has directly affected the logistics industry. It is a challenging process to move such a large volume of goods between countries and continents safely and quickly. It also significantly affects the cost of doing business. For these reasons, logistics processes need to be managed efficiently and effectively which in turn ensures competitive advantage. Thus, logistics process efficiency and effectiveness have gained importance and a need to measure logistics performance has emerged. The World Bank has started to publish the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) every two years by measuring the logistics performances of the countries using a set of six criteria. This study examines the logistics performances of Central Asian Turkish Republics (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) within the scope of Logistics Performance Index (LPI). In addition, the logistics performances of these countries were compared with the performances of the countries in the same region.

When high-sulfur-content coal or coke is used as fuel in fluidized bed combustors, a large excess of limestone or dolomite must be added for good SOx capture. All of the limestone is calcined but only 30–40% is actually sulfated. The resultant ashes are difficult to dispose of because of the free calcium oxide. These ashes can be reactivated for further SOx capture. A proposed, economic process involves wet grinding of the ashes with sufficient excess water to allow both complete hydration and good grinding conditions. To prevent cementitious solidification of the wet product, it is then mixed with selected dry materials, for example fine coal, to absorb the excess water. Wet waste coal fines or sludges may also be used, then both to provide the water and prevent solidification. The product is then granulated with the cementitious reactions providing a binder for the granules. Good results with large additional SOx capture have been observed both in a small pilot-sized CFBC and during a 54-hour utility boiler test in a 35 MWt boiler. Calcium utilization was nearly doubled, with significant reduction of CO2 emissions. Based on the test results, quick equity payback is expected with savings from reduced limestone purchase and ash disposal costs. In collaboration with The Babcock and Wilcox Company (B&W), a long test program at the Southern Illinois University in Carbondale, IL is planned.

Safety and health aspects are part of the strategic planning of contemporary organizations. These aspects must be observed and implemented in the day-to-day work and in all the products and goods developed by the organizations. The construction industry, as part of this contemporary organizational reality, increasingly adopts related practices to improve safety at the construction site. However, unlike traditional industrial sectors, the construction industry has specificities that also take it systematically among the most dangerous industrial sectors to work. This article presents an analysis of the scientific production on occupational safety and health management – OSHM, with focus on civil construction, specifically at the construction sites level. Throughout a systematic mapping study protocol, 108 published researches were collected by Web of Science. Using software and tools for bibliometric analyses, this article shows the main researches, authors, countries and institutions of research, the publication and dissemination platforms and the possible relations between the researches, researchers and subjects.

The negative impacts of global-scale developments and consumption habits on the environment are increasing each day. In this context, studies are conducted worldwide by many institutions and non-governmental organizations to support environmental policies. Additionally, certification programs are being executed by conformity assessment bodies to mitigate the impacts of production processes on the environment. These management systems or certification programs are either used on a voluntary basis or made mandatory by company policy, national or international regulations. The certification programs were firstly started to be used in industry and service sectors and are currently being used in agriculture sector. The certification programs used in agriculture sector aim to ensure an environmentally-friendly agricultural production process and improve consumer trust and satisfaction. This study aims to address the extent to which implementation of ISO/IEC 17065 Standard based organic and good agricultural practices and GLOBALG.A.P. certification programs and ISO 14001 Management System Standard have contributed to environmental sustainability in Turkey.

Energy is the ability to do work and life is the source of life. In parallel to the increase of population increase in the production of goods and services are increasingly in demand for energy. Evaluation of all sources of energy that can be produced now it has become very necessary. Widely used in meeting the energy demand of fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal) are limited energy resources and emissions are more harmful emissions. Spread of harmful emissions lessened even the most important problems is that they will end done day. From this perspective, the assessment of renewable energy sources in the world is an important issue. Gökçeada, Turkey is the largest island and the hills and plains lined one after the other, with a rugged structure consists of volcanic mass. Gökçeada consists of 77% mountainous, 12 % hilly and 11% plains and in terms of wind energy, which is the region with the greatest potential in Turkey. However, in terms of Gökçeada development index the least developed regions in the sixth regions, which is located in class. From this perspective, in this study, which will provide an important contribution to the region development of renewable energy sources wind, solar, tidal and renewable, biofuels and Hydraulics energy potential and capacity were investigated. Based on the data obtained, recommendations are made to invest in the renewable energy sector.

Abstract Currently, well stimulation in North America has evolved almost entirely to slickwater fracturing with friction reducers (FRs). Some parts of North America are notorious for their poor water quality, so wells are commonly treated using high total dissolved solids (TDS)-containing flow-back or produced water. Cationic FRs are usually applied in these systems due to their tolerance to multivalent cations in such waters. Additionally, dry friction reducers have gained momentum for better economics and logistics. In this paper, a dry cationic FR is systematically studied with respect to its "on the fly" hydration capability, friction reduction, mechanical stability, compatibility with other anionic chemical additives, and thermal stability in different levels of TDS brines. The cationic FR solution was subjected to varying shearing rates to understand its hydration capability, friction reduction, and mechanical stability. Its compatibility with anionic additives, such as a scale inhibitor, was also tested in a laboratory friction loop. Thermal stability of the cationic FR solution was studied at 150°F using a viscometer and Multi-Angle Laser Light Scattering (MALLS) method to obtain molecular weight information. The charge characteristics of the cationic FR, indicative of self-degradation properties, with exposure to heat, were also studied. Potential formation damage of the FR solution was evaluated with core flow tests in the absence of oxidizing breakers. Friction reduction and hydration tests show that the FR performs well in high TDS waters, even at low temperature, reaching its peak performance rapidly. The cationic FR possesses high mechanical stability even after being exposed to high pumping rates in the friction loop. It is well known that cationic FRs are not compatible with polyanionic scale inhibitors; in this study, a compatible scale inhibitor, SI-1, is identified. Additionally, there has historically been hesitation to use such cationic materials due to concerns of formation compatibility with negatively charged source rocks or flocculation in water treatment plants. Thermal testing with cationic FRs reveals that the material degrades to anionic without the aid of any other additive, which is confirmed by the fact that addition of polycationic additive, C1, caused coacervation in the heat-treated sample. As a result, concerns over effects of rock wettability or incompatibility with water treatment additives can be alleviated. No anionic FRs undergo similar change of the ionic charge. Thermal testing with cationic FR solutions also shows a significant viscosity drop, surprisingly without pronounced molecular weight loss (via MALLS). However, core flow testing of cationic FR fluids shows good regained permeability, even without breakers, further confirming self-cleaning capability. The degradation mechanism of these FRs will be shown. The self-cleaning capability of the dry cationic FR, even at relatively low bottomhole temperature (BHT), in combination with its high salt-tolerance, makes it an excellent friction reducer for multiple applications, especially with low quality water.

We know that the trend of women towards establishing small projects is increasing day after day to find a decent life or to achieve a certain level of well-being therefore this study aimed to indentify the role of small projects in the economic empowerment of Libyan woman. This study used the Descriptive method, and used SPSS for analysis data. The most important findings of the study centered on the effectiveness of small projects in the economic empowerment of Libyan women, as the small projects achieved for women in the study community a greater degree of freedom, self-fulfillment and self-confidence after their financial independence, also the small projects achieved for women on the study community a good standard of living for their selves and their families, those projects contributed to the employment of some women, and encouraging some women to set up their economic projects.

Why should people--and economies-- save? The typical answer usually focuses on the need to protect against future shocks, to smooth consumption during hard times, in short, to save for the proverbial rainy day. This book approaches the question from a slightly different angle. While saving to survive the bad times is important, saving to thrive in the good times is what really counts. People must save to invest in their own and their children's health and education, live productive, fulfilling lives, and end their days in comfort and peace. Firms must save so they can grow productive enterprises that employ more workers in better jobs to produce quality goods for domestic and international markets. Governments must save to build bridges, highways, and airports that support a productive economy, to provide quality services to their citizens, and to assure their senior citizens a dignified, worry-free retirement. In short, countries must save for a sunny day¿a time when everyone can bask in the benefits of growth, prosperity, and well-being. This book explores how households, firms, and governments can address the savings problem in Latin America and the Caribbean in pursuit of that sunny day.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) consistently scores in the lowest rungs of global indexes on corruption, integrity and wider governance standards. Indeed, corruption of different sorts pervades public and corporate life, with strong ramifications for human development. Although the DRC is one of the richest countries in the world in terms of natural resources, its people are among the globe’s poorest.Corruption in the extractive industries (minerals and oil) is particularly problematic in terms of scale and its centrality to a political economy that maintains elites and preserves the highly inequitable outcomes for the majority. The politico-economic elites of the DRC, such as former President Joseph Kabila, are reportedly significant perpetrators but multinationals seeking valuable minerals or offering financial services are also allegedly deeply involved. Corruption is therefore a problem with national and international roots.Despite national and international initiatives, levels of corruption have proven very stubborn for at least the last 20 years, for various reasons. It is a structural and not just a legal issue. It is deeply entrenched in the country’s political economy and is driven both by domestic clientelism and the fact that multinationals buy into corrupt deals. This rapid review therefore seeks to find out the Corruption challenges and responses in the Democratic Republic of Congo.Grand level corruption shades down into the meso-level, where for instance, mineral laden trucks are systematically under-weighted with the collusion of state officials. With severe shortfalls in public funding, certain public services, such as education, are supported by informal payments. Other instances of petty corruption facilitate daily access to goods and services. At this level, there are arguments against counting such practices as forms of corruption and instead as necessary survival practices.To address the challenge of corruption, the DRC is equipped with a legal system that is of mixed strengths and an institutional arsenal that has made limited progress. International programming in integrity and anti-corruption represents a significant proportion of support to the DRC but much less than humanitarian and governance sectors. The leading international partners in this regard are the EU, US, UNDP, UK, African Development Bank, Germany and Sweden. These partners conduct integrity programming in general governance issues, as well as in the mineral and forest sectors.The sources used in this rapid review are gender blind and converge on a very negative picture The literature ranges from the academic and practitioner to the journalistic and investigative, and taken as a whole, is of good quality, drawing on different types of evidence including perceptions and qualitative in-country research. The sources are mostly in English with two in French.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Small, family-run grocery stores, known as tiendas de abarrotes, are essential for supplying basic goods and services in thousands of low-income rural communities in Mexico.These stores are convenient -many are open 24 hours a day -but they normally charge higher prices than supermarkets and other large retailers in big cities, because of their reduced economies of scale and higher associated transportation costs. Mi Tienda, a Mexican company sponsored by private Mexican and international social investors, is dedicated to improving the lives of low-income families, enhancing the efficiency of the rural supply chain, and increasing the sales and productivity of small family-owned rural grocery stores. Providing door-to-door supply of basic products, as well as consultancy and training services, Mi Tienda focuses on benefiting small grocery stores in communities with populations of less than 5,000 inhabitants.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.