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1
Průchová, Anna. « Makroekonomická analýza pomocí DSGE modelů ». Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-124606.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models are derived from microeconomic principles and they retain the hypothesis of rational expectations under policy changes. Thus they are resistant to the Lucas critique. The DSGE model has become associated with new Keynesian thinking. The basic New Keynesian model is studied in this thesis. The three equations of this model are dynamic IS curve, Phillips-curve and monetary policy rule. Blanchard and Kahn's approach is introduced as the solution strategy for linearized model. Two methods for evaluating DSGE models are presented -- calibration and Bayesian estimation. Calibrated parametres are used to fit the model to Czech economy. The results of numeric experiments are compared with empricial data from Czech republic. DSGE model's suitability for monetary policy analysis is evaluated.
2
Sjöberg, Johan. « Optimal Control and Model Reduction of Nonlinear DAE Models ». Doctoral thesis, Linköpings universitet, Reglerteknik, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-11345.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In this thesis, different topics for models that consist of both differential and algebraic equations are studied. The interest in such models, denoted DAE models, have increased substantially during the last years. One of the major reasons is that several modern object-oriented modeling tools used to model large physical systems yield models in this form. The DAE models will, at least locally, be assumed to be described by a decoupled set of ordinary differential equations and purely algebraic equations. In theory, this assumption is not very restrictive because index reduction techniques can be used to rewrite rather general DAE models to satisfy this assumption. One of the topics considered in this thesis is optimal feedback control. For state-space models, it is well-known that the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation (HJB) can be used to calculate the optimal solution. For DAE models, a similar result exists where a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman-like equation is solved. This equation has an extra term in order to incorporate the algebraic equations, and it is investigated how the extra term must be chosen in order to obtain the same solution from the different equations. A problem when using the HJB to find the optimal feedback law is that it involves solving a nonlinear partial differential equation. Often, this equation cannot be solved explicitly. An easier problem is to compute a locally optimal feedback law. For analytic nonlinear time-invariant state-space models, this problem was solved in the 1960's, and in the 1970's the time-varying case was solved as well. In both cases, the optimal solution is described by convergent power series. In this thesis, both of these results are extended to analytic DAE models. Usually, the power series solution of the optimal feedback control problem consists of an infinite number of terms. In practice, an approximation with a finite number of terms is used. A problem is that for certain problems, the region in which the approximate solution is accurate may be small. Therefore, another parametrization of the optimal solution, namely rational functions, is studied. It is shown that for some problems, this parametrization gives a substantially better result than the power series approximation in terms of approximating the optimal cost over a larger region. A problem with the power series method is that the computational complexity grows rapidly both in the number of states and in the order of approximation. However, for DAE models where the underlying state-space model is control-affine, the computations can be simplified. Therefore, conditions under which this property holds are derived. Another major topic considered is how to include stochastic processes in nonlinear DAE models. Stochastic processes are used to model uncertainties and noise in physical processes, and are often an important part in for example state estimation. Therefore, conditions are presented under which noise can be introduced in a DAE model such that it becomes well-posed. For well-posed models, it is then discussed how particle filters can be implemented for estimating the time-varying variables in the model. The final topic in the thesis is model reduction of nonlinear DAE models. The objective with model reduction is to reduce the number of states, while not affecting the input-output behavior too much. Three different approaches are studied, namely balanced truncation, balanced truncation using minimization of the co-observability function and balanced residualization. To compute the reduced model for the different approaches, a method originally derived for nonlinear state-space models is extended to DAE models.
3
Gendron, Debbie. « Model stability under a policy shift : are DSGE models really structural ? » Thesis, Université Laval, 2007. http://www.theses.ulaval.ca/2007/24214/24214.pdf.
Texte intégral
4
PACCAGNINI, ALESSIA. « Model validation in the DSGE approach ». Doctoral thesis, Universita' Bocconi Milano, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10281/13792.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The purpose of this thesis is to discuss the introduction and the implementation of the idea of model validation, especially in the use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. In this discussion, the mixture models are presented as the recent econometrics tool used in model validation. Two examples of DSGE models are illustrated in order to introduce two problems: omitted variables within the statistical identification problem and the finite-order representation by a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) of a DSGE model. The paper concludes the review considering some pointers for the future research and for the further developments of the use of mixture models for model validation.
5
Sjöberg, Johan. « Optimal control and model reduction of nonlinear DAE models / ». Linköping : Department of Electrical Engineering, Linköping University, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-11345.
Texte intégral
6
Zhu, Chuanqi. « Essays on macroeconometrics ». Thesis, Boston College, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:104398.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Thesis advisor: Zhijie XiaoThis dissertation contains three chapters in theoretical Macroeconometrics and applied Macroeconometrics. This first chapter addresses the issues related to the estimation, testing and computation of ordered structural breaks in multivariate linear regressions. Unlike common breaks, ordered structural breaks are those breaks that are related across equations but not necessarily occurring at the same dates. A likelihood ratio test assuming normal errors is proposed in this chapter in order to detect the ordered structural breaks in multivariate linear regressions. The estimation of ordered structural breaks uses quasi-maximum likelihood and adopts the efficient algorithm of Bai and Perron (2003). I also provide results about the consistency and rate of convergence when searching for ordered structural breaks. Finally, these methods are applied to one empirical example: the mean growth rate of output in three European countries and United States. This second chapter focuses on the parameter stability of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. To this end, I solve and estimate a representative New Keynesian model using both linear and nonlinear methods. I first examine how nonlinearities affect the parameter stability of the New Keynesian model. The results show that parameter instabilities still exist even using nonlinear solutions, and also highlight differences between two nonlinear solution methods: perturbation method and projection method. In addition, I propose a sequential procedure for searching for multiple structural breaks in nonlinear models, and apply it to the New Keynesian model. Two common structural breaks among these estimated parameters are identified for all the five solutions considered in this chapter. One structural break is in the early 1970s, while another one locates around the middle 1990s. In the third chapter, we investigate changes in long run productivity growth in the United States. In particular, we approach productivity growth from a sectoral perspective, and decompose the whole economy into two broad sectors: investment goods-producing sector and consumption goods-producing sector. Although the evidence of changes in the aggregate productivity growth is far from obvious at conventional test size, we find evidence of structural breaks in the sectoral productivity growth using both growth accounting and DSGE model based measures. There are two structural breaks in investment goods-producing sector using growth accounting measures, which indicates that the era of investment and productivity boom in the middle 1990s may have ended before the Great Recession. In addition, our results show there is one structural break in consumption goods-producing sector around the 1970s and attribute the aggregate productivity slowdown at that time to consumption goods-producing sector. These results are broadly consistent with Ireland and Schuh (2008). Our results offer up with a modestly pessimistic outlook on future productivity growth and, therefore, potential output
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2013
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
7
Ornellas, Raphael da Silva. « Interação entre as autoridades fiscal e monetária no Brasil ». reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/35594.
Texte intégralRésumé :
O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar a interação entre as autoridades fiscal e monetária no Brasil, de forma a mensurar o nível de dominância fiscal existente na economia brasileira. Para alcançar este objetivo, utiliza-se um modelo de equilíbrio geral dinâmico e estocástico desenvolvido para uma economia com rigidez de preços e com tendência inflacionária, cujos parâmetros de interesses são estimados por inferência bayesiana. Conclui-se que o nível de dominância fiscal na economia brasileira é baixa, em patamar comparado ao da economia norte-americana e canadense. Este resultado tem impacto direto na condução de políticas que visam a redução da inflação, sugerindo que esta atividade deva passar pelo encolhimento das metas inflacionárias, que impactaria diretamente na expectativa dos agentes sobre a inflação futura.The purpose of this dissertartion is to analyse the interaction between fiscal and monetary authorities in Brazil, in a way that we can be able to measure the level of fiscal dominance occurring in brazilian economy. To attain this purpose, we make use of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and non-zero trend inflation, whose parameters are estimated by bayesian inference. We conclude that the level of the fiscal dominance in Brazil is low, in scale compared to american e canadian economies. This result has consequence in policy conduction that aims to decrease inflation, suggesting that may be necessary straiten the inflation target to reduce the inflation and affect the agent’s expectation about the future inflation.
8
Gómez, Sánchez Pilar. « Analyzing the parallel applications’ I/O behavior impact on HPC systems ». Doctoral thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/586177.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Donat que el volum de dades generat per les aplicacions científiques creix i la pressió sobre el
sistema d’E/S dels sistemes HPC també augmenta, es proposa un model de comportament d’E/S per les
aplicacions cientifiques paral.leles de pas de missatges MPI (Message Passing Interface) amb l’objectiu
d’analitzar l’impacte de les aplicacions en el sistema d’E/S. Analitzar les aplicacions les aplicacions
paral.leles MPI a nivell POSIX-IO permet observar com es tracten les dades de l’aplicació en aquest
nivell. En aquest treball de recerca es presenta: la definició del model PIOM-PX. la metodologia
aplicada per extraure el model i l’eina PIOM-PX-Trace-Tool. Donat que PIOM-PX està basat en el
concepte de E/S, es poden identificar les fases més significatives. Fases que tenen més influència
que altres en el sistema d’E/S, provocant un coll d’ampolla o un rendiment pobre. L’anàlisis en base
a les fases d’E/S permeten identificar, acotar i intentar reduir l’impacte d’aquestes fases sobre el
sistema d’E/S. PIOM-PX forma part del model proposat PIOM que integra el model de comportament
d’E/S a nivell de POSIX-IO (PIOM-PX) i el model de comportament d’E/S a nivell de MPI-IO
(PIOM-MP, antic PAS2P-IO). El model proporciona la informació necessaria, per a que utilitzant
programes sintètics programables es pugui replicar el comportament de l’aplicació en diferents sistemes.
PIOM-PX-Trace-Tool permet interceptar instruccions de POSIX-IO utilitzades durant l’execució de
l’aplicació. Els experiments realitzats s’han executat en varis sistemes HPC estandard i en la plataforma
Cloud, on s’ha pogut comprovar la utilitat del model proposat, PIOM.Dado que el volumen de datos generado por las aplicaciones científicas crece y la presión sobre el sistema de E/S de los sistemas HPC también aumenta, se propone un modelo de comportamiento de E/S para las aplicaciones científicas paralelas de paso de mensajes (MPI -Message Passing Interface-) con el objetivo de analizar el impacto de las aplicaciones en el sistema de E/S. Analizar las aplicaciones paralelas MPI a nivel POSIX-IO permite observar cómo se tratan los datos de la aplicación a ese nivel. En este trabajo de investigación se presenta: la definición del modelo PIOM-PX, la metodología aplicada para extraer dicho modelo y la herramienta PIOM-PX-Trace-Tool. Dado que PIOM-PX está basado en el concepto de fase de E/S, se pueden identificar las fases más significativas. Fases que tienen más influencia que otras en el sistema de E/S, que podrían provocar un cuello de botella o un rendimiento pobre. El análisis en base a las fases de E/S permite identificar, acotar e intentar reducir el impacto de esas fases sobre el sistema de E/S. PIOM-PX forma parte del modelo propuesto PIOM que integra el modelo de comportamiento de E/S a nivel de POSIX-IO (PIOM-PX) y el modelo de comportamiento de E/S a nivel de MPI-IO (PIOM-MP, antiguo PAS2P-IO). El modelo proporciona la información necesaria, para que utilizando programas sintéticos programables se pueda replicar el comportamiento de la aplicación en diferentes sistemas. PIOM-PX-Trace-Tool permite interceptar instrucciones de POSIX-IO utilizadas durante la ejecución de la aplicación. Los experimentos realizados se han ejecutado en varios sistemas HPC estándar y en la plataforma Cloud, donde se ha podido comprobar la utilidad del modelo propuesto, PIOM.
The volume of data generated by scientific applications grows and the pressure on the I/O system of HPC systems also increases. For this reason, an I/O behavior model is proposed for scientific MPI (Message Passing Interface) parallel applications. The goal is to analyze the applications’ impact on the I/O system. Analyzing the MPI parallel applications at POSIX-IO level allows observing how the application’s data are treated at that level. In this research work, the following is presented: the I/O behavior model definition at POSIX-IO level (PIOM-PX model definition), the methodology applied to extract this model and the PIOM-PX-Trace-Tool. As PIOM-PX is based on the I/O phase concept, it can identify the more significant phases. Phases that have more influence than others in the I/O system and they could provoke a bottleneck or a poor performance. Analysis based on I/O phases allows identifying, delimiting, and trying to reduce each phase’s impact on the I/O system. PIOM-PX is part of proposed model PIOM. PIOM integrates the I/O behavior model at POSIX-IO level (PIOMPX) and the I/O behavior model at MPI-IO level (PIOM-MP, formerly known as PAS2P-IO). The model provides the information necessary to replicate an application’s behavior in different systems using synthetic programmables programs. PIOM-PX-Trace-Tool allows interception of POSIX-IO instructions used during the application execution. The experiments carried out are executed in several standar HPC systems and the Cloud platform, where it is able to test the utility of the proposed model PIOM.
9
Taveira, Marília Angelo. « Análise do papel da política macroprudencial e sua inserção em um modelo DSGE ». reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/10458.
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Este estudo tem dois objetivos principais. O primeiro, discutir o propósito da popularização das políticas macroprudenciais no pós-crise – que surgiram como uma das soluções para a complexa relação entre estabilidade de preços e estabilidade financeira – suas vantagens em relação à abordagem anteriormente predominante – as políticas microprudenciais – e formas de interação com a tradicional política monetária. O segundo grande objetivo reproduzir um modelo da geração novo-keynesiana que contempla um sistema bancário e características que permitem replicar a condução de uma política macroprudencial (colaterais, depósitos compulsórios, requerimentos mínimos de capital) a fim de analisar a resposta de variáveis macroeconômicas a mudanças nestes parâmetros.
This study has two main goals. The first one is to discuss the popularization of macroprudential policies in the after crisis, as a solution for the complex linkage between financial stability and price stability, its benefits compared to the previous approach – the microprudential regulation – and the interaction between macroprudential and conventional monetary policies. The second main goal is to simulate a DSGE model with a banking system and subject to reserve requirements and collateral requirements that allow one to assess the effects of macroprudential tools utilization over macroeconomic variables.
10
Štork, Zbyněk. « Term Structure of Interest Rates : Macro-Finance Approach ». Doctoral thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-125158.
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Thesis focus on derivation of macro-finance model for analysis of yield curve and its dynamics using macroeconomic factors. Underlying model is based on basic Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium DSGE approach that stems from Real Business Cycle theory and New Keynesian Macroeconomics. The model includes four main building blocks: households, firms, government and central bank. Log-linearized solution of the model serves as an input for derivation of yield curve and its main determinants -- pricing kernel, price of risk and affine term structure of interest rates -- based on no-arbitrage assumption. The Thesis shows a possible way of consistent derivation of structural macro-finance model, with reasonable computational burden that allows for time varying term premia. A simple VAR model, widely used in macro-finance literature, serves as a benchmark. The paper also presents a brief comparison and shows an ability of both models to fit an average yield curve observed from the data. Lastly, the importance of term structure analysis is demonstrated using case of Central Bank deciding about policy rate and Government conducting debt management.
11
Huang, Haifang. « Essays in housing and macroeconomy ». Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/2789.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Compared to the previous twenty years, residential investments in the US appear more stable after the mid-1980s. Chapter 2 explores key hypotheses regarding the underlying causes. In particular, it uses estimated DSGE models to examine whether a more responsive interest rate policy stabilizes the housing market by keeping inflation in check. These estimations indeed found a policy that has become more responsive over time. Counter-factual analysis confirms that the change stabilizes inflation as well as nominal interest rate. It does not, however, find the change in policy to have stabilizing effect on real economic activity including housing investment. It finds that smaller TFP shocks make modest contributions, while the biggest contributing factor to the fall in the housing volatility is a reduction in the sensitivity of the investment to demand variations.
Chapter 3 constructs a richly specified model for the housing market to examine the empirical relevance of various costs and frictions, including the investment adjustment cost, sticky construction costs, search frictions, and sluggish adjustment of house prices. Using the US national-level quarterly data from 1985 and 2007, we find that the gradual adjustment of house prices is the most important and irreplaceable feature of the model. The key to developing an optimization-based empirical housing model, therefore, is to provide a structural interpretation for the slow adjustment in house prices.
Chapter 4 uses US national-level time series of residential investment, price index of new houses, consumption and interest rate to explore whether the US, as a nation, experienced a drop in the price elasticity of supply of new housing. Maximum likelihood estimations with a simple stock-and-flow model found a statistically significant drop of the elasticity from 10 to 2.2, when the quarterly data between 1971 and 2007 are split at 1985. A richer model with mechanisms of gradual adjustment also indicates such a reduction, when existing knowledge about the adjustment parameters is incorporated in the analysis. For the Federal Reserve, an inelastic supply can be a source of concern, because policy-driven demand in housing market is more likely to trigger undesirable swings in prices.
12
PACCAGNINI, ALESSIA. « Model validation in the DSGE approach ». Doctoral thesis, Università Bocconi, 2009. https://hdl.handle.net/11565/4053466.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The purpose of this thesis is to discuss the introduction and the implementation of the idea of model validation, especially in the use of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. In this discussion, the mixture models are presented as the recent econometrics tool used in model validation. Two examples of DSGE models are illustrated in order to introduce two problems: omitted variables within the statistical identification problem and the finite-order representation by a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) of a DSGE model. The paper concludes the review considering some pointers for the future research and for the further developments of the use of mixture models for model validation.
13
Machado, Ana Patrícia Pereira. « A implementação do Modelo ACSA no Departamento de Pediatria do Hospital de Santa Maria – um estudo de caso ». Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/21297.
Texte intégralRésumé :
A presente dissertação surge no âmbito da problemática da qualidade na saúde, tal como tem vindo a ser defendido pela Organização Mundial da Saúde e pelos diversos Governos em Portugal. Desta forma, através deste estudo, pretende-se responder à questão “De que forma o modelo ACSA foi implementado no Departamento de Pediatria do Hospital de Santa Maria e qual a perceção dos profissionais relativamente aos fatores com mais facilidade ou dificuldade de implementação deste modelo e na sua manutenção?”.
Para tal, a Metodologia adotada é de natureza qualitativa, através de entrevistas e quantitativa, com aplicação de inquéritos por questionário. Deste modo, obtiveram-se 10 respondentes, dos quais 7 foram considerados como tendo respostas válidas.
Os resultados obtidos revelam que, relativamente à qualidade, aos aspetos positivos/negativos e à utilidade do Modelo ACSA, os profissionais apresentam uma linha de pensamento bastante homogénea, valorizando as caraterísticas do mesmo.
Relativamente à perceção da facilidade/dificuldade na implementação do Modelo ACSA, de forma geral todos os standards dos vários blocos foram considerados como tendo sido fáceis de implementar, à exceção do procedimento relativo à disponibilização, ao utente, de informação atualizada sobre tempos de resposta em relação ao pedido de cuidados feitos; de os utentes e familiares referirem que as instalações são confortáveis; das reparações levadas a cabo por empresas externas à organização, exigindo-se que disponham de meios técnicos e humanos apropriados, que estejam inscritas ou registadas junto do organismo com autoridade competente e que disponham de uma política de responsabilidade civil satisfatória; à utilização de sistemas e tecnologias digitais da informação e comunicação e do procedimento sobre a avaliação periódica dos resultados dos objetivos fixados no contrato-programa e demais objetivos.
Relativamente à manutenção do Modelo, também todos os standards dos vários blocos foram considerados como fáceis de manter, à exceção do procedimento sobre a realização de análises e informações periódicas, relativas à segurança estrutural do edifício e das instalações, levadas a cabo por profissional ou entidade qualificada, sendo que as conclusões daí decorrentes devem ser comunicadas à Direção do Departamento e devem desenvolver-se as ações que forem necessárias na sequência dessas conclusões; sobre as reparações levadas a cabo por empresas externas à organização, sendo exigido que disponham de meios técnicos e humanos apropriados, que estejam inscritas ou registadas junto do organismo com autoridade competente e que disponham de uma política de responsabilidade civil satisfatória; do procedimento sobre
a utilização de sistemas e tecnologias digitais da informação e comunicação; à avaliação periódica dos resultados dos objetivos estabelecidos no contrato-programa e demais objetivos.
A aplicação dos questionários decorreu no mês de dezembro de 2019, sendo que os resultados dos mesmos foram analisados no início de 2020.This dissertation arises in the context of the problem of quality in health, as it has been defended by the World Health Organization and the various governments in Portugal. Thus, through this study, we intend to answer the question "How was the ACSA model implemented in the Pediatrics Department of Santa Maria Hospital and what is the perception of professionals regarding the factors with more ease or difficulty in implementing this model and in its maintenance? For this, the methodology adopted is of a qualitative nature, through interviews and quantitative, with application of questionnaire surveys. In this way, 10 respondents were obtained, of which 7 were considered to have valid answers. The results obtained reveal that, regarding quality, positive/negative aspects and usefulness of the ACSA Model, professionals present a fairly homogeneous line of thought, valuing its characteristics. Regarding the perception of ease/difficulty in implementing the ACSA Model, in general, all the standards in the various blocks were considered to have been easy to implement, with the exception of the procedure concerning the provision to the user of updated information on response times in relation to the request for care made; the users and family members state that the facilities are comfortable; the repairs carried out by companies outside the organisation, requiring them to have appropriate technical and human resources, to be registered or registered with the body with the competent authority and to have a satisfactory civil responsibility policy; the use of digital information and communication systems and technologies and the procedure for the periodic evaluation of the results of the objectives set out in the programme contract and other objectives. Regarding the maintenance of the Model, all the standards of the various blocks were also considered to be easy to maintain, with the exception of the procedure on the carrying out of periodic analyses and information on the structural safety of the building and facilities, carried out by a qualified professional or entity, and the conclusions arising from this must be communicated to the Department's Management and the necessary actions must be taken as a result of these conclusions; on the repairs carried out by companies outside the organization, being required to have the appropriate technical and human resources, to be registered or registered with the body with competent authority and to have a satisfactory civil responsibility policy; the procedure on the use of digital information and communication systems and technologies; the periodic evaluation of the results of the objectives established in the program contract and other objectives. The application of the questionnaires took place in December 2019 and the results were analysed in early 2020.
N/A
14
Hinneburg, Detlef. « Die Symmetrisierung des MacCormack-Schemas im Atmosphärenmodell GESIMA ». Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig, 2016. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:15-qucosa-212872.
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The dynamical equations of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model GESIMA are solved numerically on an Arakawa-C grid. Because of the staggered grid most of the prognostic variables and their derivatives have identical local positions. The functional connection between the fluxes and velocities defined at different places is managed by the MacCormack scheme ignoring the local diff erences. The systematic errors are diminished by means of alternate down- and upwind shifting of the fluxes after each time step. A cycle of 8 time steps is necessary to achieve approximately symmetrical conditions because of the shift permutations. Nevertheless, the systematic errors are not completely removed and the iterative calculation of the dynamic pressure is retarded by starting values from eight time steps ago (same permutation of shift directions). Both shortcomings are avoided by a symmetrized MacCormack scheme without the loss of its advantages of handling strong gradients. The new method is based on the symmetrization of the equations with respect to the passive quantities and on the simultaneous calculation of each equation for opposite shift directions of the active variables followed by averaging both increments. The method is tested for a typical exampleDie dynamischen Modellgleichungen des nicht-hydrostatischen mesoskaligen Atmosphärenmodells GESIMA sind numerisch auf einem Arakawa-C-Gitter gelöst. Durch die versetzte Anordnung der Größen auf dem Gitter besitzen die Differenzenquotienten (auf den rechten Seiten) und die prognostizierten Größen (auf den linken Seiten) von vornherein die gleiche lokale Position, allerdings nicht in jedem Fall. Das bisher in GESIMA praktizierte MacCormack-Schema stellt den Zusammenhang zwischen den an verschiedenen Gitterstellen definierten Flüssen und Geschwindigkeiten her, indem die Ortsdifferenz zwischen Fluß- und zugehöriger Geschwindigkeitskomponente ignoriert wird. Zur Verringerung der systematischen Fehler erfolgt die direkte Zuordnung einer Flußkomponente abwechselnd (sequentiell) in einem Zeitschritt zur flußabwärts benachbarten Geschwindigkeitskomponente und im nächsten Zeitschritt zur flußaufwärts benachbarten. Nach Ablauf von jeweils 8 Zeitschritten sind die notwendigen Zuordnungspermutationen der 3 Vektorkomponenten zwecks einer annähernden Symmetrisierung des Verfahrens erreicht. Nachteile des bisherigen Verfahrens sind (a) der nicht vollständige Abbau der jedem Zeitschritt immanenten systematischen Zuordnungsfehler und (b) ein stark erhöhter Rechenaufwand für die iterative Bestimmung des dynamischen Druckes durch einen um 8 Zeitschritte (jeweils gleiche Zuordnungspermutation) zurückliegenden Startwert. Beide Nachteile werden durch ein neues, symmetrisiertes MacCormack-Schema vermieden, ohne daß auf die Vorteile bei der Handhabung starker Gradienten verzichtet werden muß. Das Verfahren beruht (a) auf der Symmetrisierung der lokalen Zuordnung für die passiven Größen innerhalb einer Gleichung (d.h. der nicht durch sie prognostizierten Größen) und (b) auf der simultanen Durchführung der zwei entgegengesetzten Zuordnungsrichtungen für jede der 3 Geschwindigkeitskomponenten innerhalb eines Zeitschrittes mit anschließender Mittelung der beiden Inkremente. Das neue Verfahren wurde anhand eines Beispiels geprüft
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Niquito, Thais Waideman. « Uma estimativa do modelo DSGE para o Brasil com rigidez real e nominal ». reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/30851.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Conforme enfatizado por Dib (2003), recentemente tem sido observado um crescente interesse no desenvolvimento de modelos econômicos que destacam o papel da rigidez no preço nominal, pautados no comportamento otimizador de agentes racionais em um ambiente dinâmico, estocástico e de equilíbrio geral (DSGE). Entretanto, apesar das vantagens apresentadas por esta classe de modelos, observa-se que os choques de política monetária geram apenas fraca persistência nas variáveis reais e nominais, o que vai de encontro com a maior parte das evidências, que indicam que os efeitos destes choques duram vários trimestres. Desta forma, no presente trabalho foi feita, através de métodos bayesianos, a estimação para o Brasil do modelo DSGE desenvolvido por Dib (2003), que combina rigidez nominal na forma de custos de ajustamento de preços e rigidez real na forma de custos de ajustamento de capital e/ou emprego. O objetivo foi verificar se a inserção de rigidez real aumenta a rigidez nominal e, consequentemente, a persistência de choques de política monetária. Os resultados de estimação mostraram que a inserção de rigidez real contribuiu para o aumento da rigidez nominal, em especial quando aquela foi inserida na forma de custos de ajustamento de emprego. Ainda, exercícios de simulação mostraram que quando o modelo contém rigidez real, os choques de oferta de moeda, de demanda de moeda e de tecnologia têm impactos mais persistentes sobre algumas variáveis macroeconômicas.According to the emphasis by Dib (2003), recently there has been a growing interest in the development of economic models that outline the role of rigidities in nominal price, based on the optimizing behavior of rational agents in a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium (DSGE) environment. Although, there are advantages shown by these models, it was observed that the money supply shocks create only weak persistence of real and nominal variables, which conflicts with the majority of evidences, pointing that the effects of this shocks lasting for many quarters. Therefore, in this present work it was carried out, through Bayesian methods, the estimation of Dib’s (2003) model for the Brazilian economy, which combines the nominal rigidities in the form of costly price adjustment and real rigidities in the form of cost of adjusting capital and/or employment. The objective was to verify if the insertion of the real rigidities increases the nominal rigidities and, consequently, the persistence of monetary policy shocks. The results of this estimation showed that the insertion of real rigidities contributed to the increase of nominal rigidities, especially when the former is inserted in the form of employment adjusting costs. In addition, exercises of simulation demonstrated that when the real rigidities are present in the model, the money supply, the money demands and the technology shocks have impacts more persistent over some macroeconomic variables.
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Zimmer, Janek. « Initialisierung des LM mit künstlichen Eingangsdaten zur Abschätzung orografischer Effekte auf die Niederschlagsverteilung bei idealisierten Strömungssimulationen ». Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:15-qucosa-222260.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Das Lokalmodell (LM) wurde für eine Reihe von Sensitivitätsuntersuchungen bezüglich orografischer Beeinflussung von Niederschlag verwendet. Für die Initialisierung des Modells mit Anfangs- und Randdaten wurde ein Schema entwickelt, welches eine horizontal homogene und stationäre Strömung aus einem einzelnen Vertikalprofil der benötigten atmosphärischen Variablen erstellt. Dabei wird hier auch der horizontale Luftdruckgradient berücksichtigt, wodurch eventuelle Auswirkungen der Coriolisterme auch ohne eine sehr große Entfernung des Zielgebietes vom Modellrand untersucht werden können. Simulationen mit idealisierten Eingangsfeldern können zur Verdeutlichung des Einflusses eines orografischen Hindernisses auf das dreidimensionale Strömungsfeld dienen. Außerdem sind sie zur Validierung bestimmter Parametrisierungen geeignet, da sich im Gegensatz zu realen Randdaten keine überlagerten synoptisch-skaligen Störungen im Modellgebiet befinden. Die hier verwendete Konvektionsparametrisierung nach Tiedtke (1989) zeigt unterschiedlich ausgeprägte Niederschlagsverteilungen und Flächenmittel in Abhängigkeit von der unterliegenden OrografieThe Lokalmodell (LM) has been used for a series of sensitivity studies treating orographic modification of precipitation. An initialization technique has been developed which generates a horizontally homogeneous and stationary flow out of a single vertical profile of the required atmospheric variables. Herein, the horizontal pressure gradient is considered as well, allowing to investigate the influence of the Coriolis terms without the need for the area under investigation to be far away from the model boundaries. Simulations with idealized initialization fields can help to illustrate the influence of orographic obstacles on the three-dimensional flow field. Furthermore, they enable to validate certain parameterizations because of the missing synoptic-scale disturbances, which are present using real boundary data. The chosen parameterization of convection after Tiedtke (1989) shows different distributions of precipitation and its area-averaged values depending on the underlying orography
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Torracchi, Federico. « Essays in empirical and theoretical labor market models ». Thesis, University of Oxford, 2016. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:4703d768-3796-42ce-ae6c-75c1f582db67.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This DPhil thesis is a collection of three theoretical and empirical papers studying labor markets in several advanced economies. Two chapters examine the relationship between the banking sector and the labor market in the US and the UK, while one evaluates a policy that has been proposed to help labor markets in the Euro Area adjust to economic shocks. In the first chapter, I develop a New Keynesian DSGE model that integrates a banking sector subject to moral hazard with a standard random search model of the labor market. I estimate the model using US data and study the role of the banking sector in determining labor market fluctuations. In the second chapter, I estimate a structural VAR model of the UK and US economies and identify bank lending shocks using a mix of sign and short-run exclusion restrictions. Consistent with the predictions of the DSGE model, an expansionary loan supply shock decreases job-destruction and increases job-creation, reducing the unemployment rate persistently. Bank lending shocks are also important drivers of labor market fluctuations, particularly during the Great Recession. Lastly, in the third chapter, I calibrate to the Euro Area a currency union DSGE model to evaluate the aggregate properties of European Unemployment Insurance (EUI). I find that EUI cannot contemporaneously stabilize the monetary union and achieve convergence in regional unemployment and inflation rates.
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Novosád, Jiří. « Model stárnutí unipolárního tranzistoru ». Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta elektrotechniky a komunikačních technologií, 2008. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-217242.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This work deals with problems aging of unipolar transistors. In theoretical parts are described the mechanisms which causing aging unipolar transistors and way leading to the restriction the change of parameters in time. The measurement and data evaluation was built on theoretical knowledge. The model of aging FET is a result of this works; it is creating extraction of data from measured data. Finally, the degradation constants are evaluation from this data. This FET aging model is easy to use in simulators of electronics circuits including aging simulations (e.g. ELDO).
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Grobaski, Thomas. « Preliminary Research for the Development of a Hot Forging Die Life Prediction Model ». Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2004. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1102695461.
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Grundel, Martin, et Jutta Abulawi. « SkiPo – Ein skizzen- und portbasiertes Modell für die Entwicklung von mechanischen Systemen ». Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2016. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-214760.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Dieser Beitrag stellt ein neues, hybrides Modell für die Entwicklung mechanischer und mechatronischer Systeme vor. Ziel ist es, die derzeitig bestehende Lücke zwischen abstrakten Funktionsmodellen und sehr konkreten, geometrieorientierten 3D-CAD-Modellen zu überbrücken. Das hier vorgestellte SkiPo-Modell beschreibt die Interaktionen zwischen den Komponenten eines Systems basierend auf den zugehörigen Material-, Energie- und Signalflüssen. Ergänzt wird diese abstrakte Darstellung mit Skizzen, die wichtige Konstruktionsentscheidungen in einer strukturierten, semistandardisierten Weise dokumentieren. Das Ziel dieser hybriden Modellierung ist es, die unvermeidbaren Iterationen zwischen abstrakten und sehr detaillierten Betrachtungen von mechanischen und mechatronischen Systemen in der frühen Phase der Produktentstehung zu unterstützen. In Erprobungen mit Studentengruppen zeigte sich, dass dieser Modellierungsansatz das Verständnis und die Kommunikation im Team fördern kann.
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Huang, Shih-Yun. « Real investment and dividend policy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model : corporate finance at an aggregate level through DSGE models ». Thesis, University of Bradford, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/5440.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In this thesis, I take a theoretical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach to investigate optimal aggregate dividend policy. I make the following contribution: 1. I extend the standard DSGE model to incorporate a residual dividend policy, external financing and default and find that simulated optimal aggregate payouts are much more volatile than the observed data when other variables are close to the values observed in the data. 2. I examine the sensitivity of optimal aggregate dividend policy to the level of the representative agent's habit motive. My results show that, when the habit motive gets stronger, the volatility of optimal aggregate payouts increases while the volatility of aggregate consumption decreases. This is consistent with the hypothesis that investors use cash payouts from well diversified portfolios to help smooth consumption. 3. I demonstrate that the variability of optimal aggregate payouts is sensitive to capital adjustment costs. My simulated results show that costly frictions from changing the capital base of the firm cause optimal aggregate dividends and real investments to be smooth and share prices to be volatile. This finding is consistent with prior empirical observations. 4. I run simulations that support the hypothesis that optimal aggregate dividend policy is similar when the representative firm is risk averse to when it has capital adjustment costs. In both cases, optimal aggregate dividends volatility is very low. 5. In all calibrated DSGE models, apart from case 4, optimal aggregate payouts are found to be countercyclical. This supports the hypothesis that corporations prefer to hold more free cash flows for potential investment opportunities instead of paying dividends when the economy is booming, but is inconsistent with observed data. Keywords: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE), real business cycle, utility function, habits, dividends.
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Gelfer, Sacha. « Incorporating High Dimensional Data Vectors into Structural Macroeconomic Models ». Thesis, University of Oregon, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1794/20493.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In this dissertation I incorporate high dimensional data vectors in estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, evaluating the labor market dynamics incorporated inside such data vectors, out-of-sample forecasting performance of many models estimated with such data vectors and analytically examining the reduction of macroeconomic volatility that can occur when such data vectors are used in the formation of expectations about the future.
The second chapter investigates the extent to which modern DSGE models can produce labor market dynamics in response to a financial crisis that are consistent with the experience of the Great Recession. I estimate two New-Keynesian models, one with and one without financial frictions, in a data-rich environment. I find that negative financial shocks are associated with longer recoveries in real investment, capital-intensive sectors of the labor market and average unemployment duration. I also find the model with a financial accelerator is equipped with better tools to identify the dynamics associated with the Great Recession and its recovery in regard to many labor and financial metrics.
The third chapter compares the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the two DSGE models of Chapter II when they are estimated both out of and in a data-rich environment. This chapter finds that many financial time series variance decomposition are significantly better explained using the structural set-up of the New-Keynesian model with financial frictions. DSGE models estimated with high dimensional data vectors significantly out forecast their regularly estimated counterpart in regard to output, investment and consumption growth. Lastly, the use of real-time optimal pool model weighting significantly out-forecasts traditional macroeconomic models as well as an equally weighted weighting scheme in terms of many macroeconomic variables.
The fourth chapter examines the role forecasts derived by high dimensional data vectors can have on lowering macroeconomic volatility. Bounded rational agents are introduced into the Chapter II DSGE model with financial frictions and are given the option to use or ignore professionally generated forecasts from a dynamic factor model in their perceived forecasting model. In simulations, I find that professionally generated forecasts can significantly lower the volatility of many macroeconomic variables including inflation and hours worked.
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Gonçalves, Caio César Soares. « Avaliando a dinâmica macroeconômica do Brasil através de um modelo DSGE Markov-Switching estimado ». reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/103902.
Texte intégralRésumé :
O objetivo desta dissertação é avaliar o comportamento dos principais parâmetros da economia brasileira através da estimação de um modelo DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) de economia aberta usando métodos bayesianos e permitindo mudanças de regime markovianas de determinados parâmetros. Utilizando o modelo DSGE desenvolvido por Justiniano e Preston (2010) e o método de solução do modelo Markov Switching DSGE (MS-DSGE) proposto por Farmer et al. (2008), este trabalho encontrou superioridade nos ajustes dos dados dos modelos que incorporaram mudanças markovianas, rejeitando a hipótese de parâmetros constantes em modelos DSGE para a economia brasileira.The goal of this dissertation is to evaluate the behaviour of the main parameters of the Brazilian economy through the estimation of a DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model of open economy using Bayesian methods and allowing Markov switching of certain parameters. Using the DSGE model developed by Justiniano and Preston (2010) and the method of solution of the Markov Switching DSGE (MS-DSGE) model proposed by Farmer et al. (2008), this work found superiority in the settings of the data of the models that incorporated Markov switching, rejecting the hypothesis of constant parameters in DSGE models for the Brazilian economy.
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Furlani, Luiz Gustavo Cassilatti. « A condução da política monetária no Brasil : uma análise a partir de modelo DSGE e do método de data cloning ». reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/103949.
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A utilização de modelos de equilíbrio-geral estocásticos e dinâmicos (DSGE) para o estudo detalhado das relações entre variáveis econômicas reais e nominais tem crescido substancialmente nos últimos anos. Avanços computacionais recentes contribuíram significativamente para este movimento, permitindo que a modelagem DSGE se torne cada vez mais precisa, superando técnicas menos restritivas de modelagem macroeconômica. Contudo, a estimação destes modelos, usualmente realizada através de métodos Bayesianos, apresenta problemas, como a alta dependência da distribuição a priori. A principal inovação desta tese é propor uma solução para estes problemas, ao apresentar e utilizar o método de datacloning para estimar uma versão simplificada do modelo DSGE de Gali e Monacelli (2005), com o objetivo de avaliar a condução da política monetária pelo Banco Central do Brasil (BCB). Os principais resultados encontrados indicam que o BCB segue uma política anti-inflacionária, reage ao produto e a variações cambiais, além de gerar uma trajetória suave para a taxa de juros ao longo do tempo. Foram encontrados indícios de que a alteração de estratégia do BCB a partir de 2010, com a introdução de uma série de medidas macroprudenciais, não configurou quebra na condução da política monetária.The use of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for the detailed study of the relationship between real and nominal economic variables has grown substantially in recent years. Computational advances have contributed significantly to this movement, allowing DSGE modelling to become increasingly precise, surpassing less restrictive macroeconomic modelling techniques. However, the estimation of these models, usually performed with Bayesian methods, presents problems, such as high dependence on the prior distribution. The main innovation of this thesis is to propose a solution to these problems, presenting and using the data cloning method to estimate a simplified version of Gali and Monacelli (2005)’s DSGE model, in order to assess the conduct of monetary policy by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB). The main findings of this thesis indicate that the BCB follows an anti-inflationary policy, responds to GDP and exchange rate changes, and chooses a smooth interest rate path over time. Evidence suggests that the change in BCB’s strategy from 2010 onwards, with the introduction of a series of macroprudential measures, is not a conclusive indication of a parameter break in its reaction function.
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Almeida, Vanda Regina Guimarães de. « Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for the Portuguese economy ». Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/2775.
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Mestrado em Econometria Aplicada e PrevisãoIn this paper, a New-Keynesian DSGE model for a small open economy integrated in a monetary union is developed and estimated for the Portuguese economy, using a Bayesian approach. Estimates for some key structural parameters are obtained and a set of exercises exploring the model's statistical and economic properties are performed. A survey on the main events and literature associated with DSGE models that motivated this study is also provided, as well as a comprehensive discussion of the Bayesian estimation and model vali¬dation techniques applied. The model features five types of agents namely households, firms, aggregators, the rest of the world and the government, and includes a number of shocks and frictions, which enable a closer matching of the short-run properties of the data and a more realistic short-term adjustment to shocks. It is assumed from the outset that mone¬tary policy is defined by the union's central bank and that the domestic economy's size is negligible, relative to the union's one, and therefore its specific economic fluctuations have no influence on the union's macroeconomic aggregates and monetary policy. An endogenous risk-premium is considered, allowing for deviations of the domestic economy's interest rate from the union's one. Furthermore it is assumed that all trade and financial flows are per¬formed with countries belonging to the union, which implies that the nominal exchange rate is irrevocably set to unity.
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Jia, Lukui. « Theoretical and empirical analysis of a macroeconomic model with financial and housing sectors in emerging market economies ». Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2018. https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/276199.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, which is based on the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM) theoretical framework, has become the workhorse of macroeconomic analysis in academia, research institutes and monetary authorities since the 1980s. The dominating popularity of the DSGE type of models can be witnessed by their extensive use by central banks, such as the Bank of England (BoE), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve (FED) and other central banks. One of the most important and attractive advantages of the DSGE model is its compatibility with a variety of micro- and macro- economic foundations, including short-run nominal rigidities in the goods and services markets, heterogeneities in production, monetary policy and a rich set of exogenous shocks; not that there are no problems with these aspects of the DSGE model as discussed in this thesis. Although a lot of efforts have been made in DSGE modelling in industrialized economies, literature of DSGE modelling in emerging market economies is still at an early stage. The DSGE models especially designed for the economic and social features of these economies are hard to find. In this thesis, we develop a new DSGE model with special consideration of the economic and social features of emerging market economies, and account for some of the DSGE problems. The major development and innovation of this thesis is the heterogeneities not only on the supply side but also in terms of households. Additionally, the housing market and real estate assets are explicitly introduced into our model. Thirdly, we introduce a financial sector into our final model. In this sector, financial frictions are included and entrepreneurs are no longer riskless. Financial intermediates take deposits from households and then lend them to entrepreneurs at an interest rate, which is higherthanthedepositrate. Armed with these developments and improvements,the complete model in this thesis is expected to produce better empirical results and thereby more accurate explanation of economic movements in emerging market economies. Based on these models and data samples, we are able to make empirical analysis on the target economies, namely Brazil, China and India. In conclusion, the models developed in this thesis, based essentially on the DSGE type, can be the pioneer dynamic macroeconomic models for emerging market economies such as Brazil, India, and China. Based on these models, we conduct empirical analyses on data from China, Brazil, and India. We use the Bayesian estimation methodology to identify parameters in our model. The empirical results of these newly developed models show a good coherence with our theoretical hypotheses. Additionally, the performance of these models is consistent with the observed samples and the stylized facts in Brazil, China and India in terms of economic features, such as standard deviations of important economic variables including GDP and fixed asset investment. The results are promising, indicating that our DSGE type of model successfully captures the major economic features and dynamics in these countries with improved accuracy and explanatory power.
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Frank, Junior Oscar André. « Impacto da política fiscal sobre a taxa de câmbio : análise para o caso brasileiro através de um modelo DSGE com economia aberta ». reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/61931.
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O objetivo do presente trabalho é avaliar o impacto da política fiscal sobre as variáveis de economia aberta, incluindo a taxa de câmbio. Para tanto, faz-se uso de um modelo DSGE com setor externo para o Brasil, tendo por base Grith (2007). Essa abordagem apresenta vantagens significativas em relação à literatura existente, como: (i) a presença de uma autoridade fiscal; (ii) rigidez nominal de preços e salários, (iii) uma Regra de Taylor, condizente com o sistema de Metas de Inflação; e (iv) a possibilidade de avaliar o impacto de choques gerados no país estrangeiro – no caso, os Estados Unidos –, sobre a economia local. Os resultados do modelo estimado, com dados trimestrais entre 2000 e 2011, sugerem que, entre as tributações sobre consumo, salário, capital e gastos do governo, a política fiscal que mais surte efeito sobre as variáveis do setor externo é a última. Além disso, é a política monetária que provoca o maior efeito em magnitude sobre a taxa de câmbio.The present work aims to evaluate the fiscal policy impact on the open economy variables, including the exchange rate. In order to do this, it is used an DSGE model with external sector for Brazil, having Grith (2007) as a basis. This approach has significant advantages compared to the existing literature, such as: (i) the presence of a fiscal authority; nominal rigidity of prices and wages; (iii) a Taylor Rule, consistent with a Inflation Targeting system; and (iv) the possibility to evaluate the impact of shocks generated in the foreign country - in this case, the United States - under the local economy. The results of the estimated model suggest that among consumption, wage, capital taxations and government expenditures, the fiscal policy that has the biggest effect on the external sector variables is the last one. Furthermore, the monetary policy causes the greatest effect on the exchange rate.
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Silva, Márcio Francisco da. « Modelo DSGE com fricção financeira : o caso de uma pequena economia aberta ». reponame:Repositório Institucional da UnB, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.26512/2015.03.T.19150.
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Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade, Programa de Pós-Graduação, 2015.Submitted by Fernanda Percia França (fernandafranca@bce.unb.br) on 2015-12-21T12:31:38Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2015_MárcioFranciscodaSilva.pdf: 7139934 bytes, checksum: ac253c51aadacb24ce372e5f5ae78f54 (MD5)
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Neste trabalho foram analisadas duas extensões do modelo proposto por (2010). Na primeira versão são introduzidos um setor produtor de imóveis e uma modalidade de empréstimos às famílias impacientes com base no salário esperado. Estas mudanças têm como objetivo mimetizar duas características importantes da economia brasileira: a importância do setor de construção civil e do empréstimo consignado para o ciclo de negócios brasileiro. Na segunda versão do modelo foram incluidas as transações da economia doméstica com o exterior nos setores de bens (importando insumos e exportando bens finais) e financeiro (captação de poupança externa por meio dos bancos). Isto possibilita analisar a importância dos choques externos -a- os choques originados do setor financeiro para a economia brasileira.
This study analyzes two extensions of the model proposed by (2010). In the first one, a housing producing sector was introduced. In addition to that a different form of loans to impatient households is considered that is based on the expected wage of households. When the family takes new loans, her ability of borrowing depends on their expected wage. These changes are intended to mimic two important characteristics of the Brazilian economy: the role of housing sector in the business cycle and the supply of payroll loans. In the second extension of the model, the environment was changed to a small open economy where the transactions of goods (importing raw materials and exporting finished goods) and financial sector (foreign savings funding through banks) to the rest of the world is taken into account. This makes it possible to analyze the importance of external shocks -- the shocks arising from the financial sector to the Brazilian economy.
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Bianca, Ana Lúcia de Souza Leão. « Macroeconomia da composição do comércio exterior ». reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/15980.
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The global financial crisis occurred in 2008, it is widely discussed within the idiosyncrasies caused by external shocks, including the liquidity shocks and terms of trade. In this paper, we analyze the characteristics of the composition of Brazilian foreign trade and its effects on the domestic macro economy through a DSGE model for Brazil. For this, it sought to calibrate this model and analyze the impact of liquidity shocks and terms of trade in the main macroeconomic variables. The model results suggest that financial crises can generate substantial effects on emerging economies such as in Brazil, and the dynamics of these effects will it also depend on the composition of the trade balance of the country.
A crise financeira mundial, ocorrida em 2008, é amplamente discutida no âmbito das idiossincrasias causadas por choques externos, dentre eles os choques de liquidez e dos termos de troca. No presente trabalho, analisamos as particularidades da composição do comércio exterior brasileiro e seus efeitos sobre a macroeconomia doméstica, através de um modelo DSGE para o Brasil. Para tanto, buscou-se calibrar este modelo e analisar os impactos dos choques de liquidez e dos termos de troca nas principais variáveis macroeconômicas. Os resultados do modelo sugerem que crises financeiras podem gerar efeitos substanciais em economias emergentes, como no caso brasileiro, e a dinâmica desses efeitos dependerá também da composição da balança comercial do país.
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Katreniaková, Dagmara. « Malý DSGE model pro otevřenou ekonomiku ». Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2007. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-4240.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Práce se zabývá malým DSGE modelem (model čtvrté generace) v prostředí české a slovenské ekonomiky. Jádro analytické části tvoří srovnání odhadnutého a optimálního pravidla a zároveň jejich porovnání s reálnými výstupy. Cílem je poukázat na efektivnost centrální banky při stabilizaci variability inflace a výstupu ekonomiky. Teoretická část poskytuje znalosti usnadňující pochopení souvislostí tohoto modelu a zároveň nás obeznámí s modely, které v dnešní době využívá Česká národní banka a Národná banka Slovenska.
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Motula, Paulo Fernando Nericke. « Estimation of DSGE Models : A Monte Carlo Analysis ». reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/10961.
Texte intégralRésumé :
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We investigate the small sample properties and robustness of the parameter estimates of DSGE models. Our test ground is the Smets and Wouters (2007)'s model and the estimation procedures we evaluate are the Simulated Method of Moments (SMM) and Maximum Likelihood (ML). We look at the empirical distributions of the parameter estimates and their implications for impulse-response and variance decomposition in the cases of correct specification and two types of misspecification. Our results indicate an overall poor performance of SMM and some patterns of bias in impulse-response and variance decomposition for ML under the types of misspecification studied.
Neste trabalho investigamos as propriedades em pequena amostra e a robustez das estimativas dos parâmetros de modelos DSGE. Tomamos o modelo de Smets and Wouters (2007) como base e avaliamos a performance de dois procedimentos de estimação: Método dos Momentos Simulados (MMS) e Máxima Verossimilhança (MV). Examinamos a distribuição empírica das estimativas dos parâmetros e sua implicação para as análises de impulso-resposta e decomposição de variância nos casos de especificação correta e má especificação. Nossos resultados apontam para um desempenho ruim de MMS e alguns padrões de viés nas análises de impulso-resposta e decomposição de variância com estimativas de MV nos casos de má especificação considerados.
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Shaari, Mohamad Hasni, et hasnishaari@yahoo co uk. « Analyzing Bank Negara Malaysia's Behaviour in Formulating Monetary Policy : An Empirical Approach ». The Australian National University. College of Business and Economics, 2008. http://thesis.anu.edu.au./public/adt-ANU20090603.134826.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Existing studies which analyze a central banks' behaviour in formulating monetary
policy, are mostly concentrated on the experience of developed economies. However, developing economies face a different institutional structure, as well as a different set of constraints and shocks, hence, it would be interesting to analyze how a central bank under this different economic environment performs its monetary policy mandate. This thesis looks at the behaviour of Bank Negara Malaysia (The Central Bank of Malaysia) in formulating monetary policy in Malaysia during the period 1975-2005.
¶
There are four major aspects of Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) policy behaviour that are examined in this thesis. Firstly, with regard to its policy reaction function - does BNM set interest rates according to some form of policy rule or purely on a discretionary manner? After identifying the systematic component of its policy action, we try to establish BNM's policy objectives and preferences. This will help in understanding the
rationale behind its policy action. The third aspect is whether BNM's policy behaviour changes over time. Lastly, with the use of an estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, we conduct some policy experiments to observe the possible impact on the Malaysia's economic outcomes were BNM to behave differently to what we envisaged its policy behaviour has been.
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Banerji, Anita. « Modelling and simulation of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI of abdominal tumours ». Thesis, University of Manchester, 2012. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/modelling-and-simulation-of-dynamic-contrastenhanced-mri-of-abdominal-tumours(be6807a7-014e-4c0b-8b1e-f836b1f8127d).html.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) time series analysis techniques are hard to fully validate quantitatively as ground truth microvascular parameters are difficult to obtain from patient data. This thesis presents a software application for generating synthetic image data from known ground truth tracer kinetic model parameters. As an object oriented design has been employed to maximise flexibility and extensibility, the application can be extended to include different vascular input functions, tracer kinetic models and imaging modalities. Data sets can be generated for different anatomical and motion descriptions as well as different ground truth parameters. The application has been used to generate a synthetic DCE-MRI time series of a liver tumour with non-linear motion of the abdominal organs due to breathing. The utility of the synthetic data has been demonstrated in several applications: in the development of an Akaike model selection technique for assessing the spatially varying characteristics of liver tumours; the robustness of model fitting and model selection to noise, partial volume effects and breathing motion in liver tumours; and the benefit of using model-driven registration to compensate for breathing motion. When applied to synthetic data with appropriate noise levels, the Akaike model selection technique can distinguish between the single-input extended Kety model for tumour and the dual-input Materne model for liver, and is robust to motion. A significant difference between median Akaike probability value in tumour and liver regions is also seen in 5/6 acquired data sets, with the extended Kety model selected for tumour. Knowledge of the ground truth distribution for the synthetic data was used to demonstrate that, whilst median Ktrans does not change significantly due to breathing motion, model-driven registration restored the structure of the Ktrans histogram and so could be beneficial to tumour heterogeneity assessments.
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Chaim, Pedro Luiz Paulino. « Estimation and Identification of a DSGE model : an Application of the Data Cloning Methodology ». Universidade de São Paulo, 2016. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/96/96131/tde-31032016-144306/.
Texte intégralRésumé :
We apply the data cloning method developed by Lele et al. (2007) to estimate the model of Smets and Wouters (2007). The data cloning algorithm is a numerical method that employs replicas of the original sample to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator as the limit of Bayesian simulation-based estimators. We also analyze the identification properties of the model. We measure the individual identification strength of each parameter by observing the posterior volatility of data cloning estimates, and access the identification problem globally through the maximum eigenvalue of the posterior data cloning covariance matrix. Our results indicate that the model is only poorly identified. The system displays bad global identification properties, and most of its parameters seem locally ill-identified.Neste trabalho aplicamos o método data cloning de Lele et al. (2007) para estimar o modelo de Smets e Wouters (2007). O algoritmo data cloning é um método numérico que utiliza réplicas da amostra original para aproximar o estimador de máxima verossimilhança como limite de estimadores Bayesianos obtidos por simulação. Nós também analisamos a identificação dos parâmetros do modelo. Medimos a identificação de cada parâmetro individualmente ao observar a volatilidade a posteriori dos estimadores de data cloning. O maior autovalor da matriz de covariância a posteriori proporciona uma medida global de identificação do modelo. Nossos resultados indicam que o modelo de Smets e Wouters (2007) não é bem identificado. O modelo não apresenta boas propriedades globais de identificação, e muitos de seus parâmetros são localmente mal identificados.
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Jerouschek, Günter. « Die Hexen und ihr Prozeß : die Hexenverfolgung in der Reichtsstadt Esslingen / ». Esslingen : Stadtarchiv [u.a.], 1992. http://www.bsz-bw.de/rekla/show.php?mode=source&id=34.
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Šerytė, Renata. « Profesionalų, dirbančių Laikinuose vaikų globos namuose, nuostatos į realų ir siektiną socialinio darbo su globėjų šeima modelį ». Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2005. http://vddb.library.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2005~D_20050606_065856-84005.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In der vorliegenden Magisterarbeit wird das Modell der familialen Pflege, der Ausbildung der Pflegeeltern und der Arbeit mit der Pflegefamilie in Litauen analysiert.
Im ersten Teil wird die Analyse der Dokumente und der Rechtsakten, die den Pflegeprozess in Litauen regeln, vorgestellt. Hier wird das Problem der Auswahl der potentiellen Pflegeeltern und ihrer Vorbereitung auf die Pflege überblickt. Man analysiert die Spezifik der Sozialarbeit mit Pflegefamilien, die Aufgaben des vorläufigen Kinderheimes und die Möglichkeiten, seine Tätigkeit zu erweitern. Man konstruiert auch das Modell der zu bestrebten Sozialarbeit mit der Pflegefamilie.
Im zweiten Teil stellt man die Forschung der Einstellungen vor, die die in den vorläufigen Kinderheimen arbeitenden Fachleute haben. Man versucht, die Einstellungen der Fachleute zum Phänomen der Pflegefamilie, zur Organisation der Sozialarbeit mit der Pflegefamilie und zur Möglichkeit, die Funktionen des vorläufigen Kinderheimes zu erweitern, zu erschließen.
Das Problem der vorläufigen Abtrennung eines Kindes von seiner Familie ist ein komplexes Problem, und so müsste es auch gelöst werden, indem man Hilfe für die Familie des sozialen Risikos leistet und dem Kind die Möglichkeit gibt, die Krisenperiode in einer Pflegefamilie zu überleben. Am Ende der Magisterarbeit wird eine Empfehlung gegeben, wie man einem Kind, das ohne Fürsorge der Eltern geblieben ist, Hilfe effektiver leisten könnte. Das ist das Projekt des Programms eines... [to full text]
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Beviláqua, Giovanni Silva. « Um modelo DSGE para análise de desigualdade de renda ». reponame:Repositório Institucional da UnB, 2017. http://repositorio.unb.br/handle/10482/25227.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Economia, Brasília, 2017.Submitted by Raquel Almeida (raquel.df13@gmail.com) on 2017-11-14T15:45:34Z No. of bitstreams: 2 2017_GiovanniSilvaBeviláqua_RESUMO.pdf: 8301 bytes, checksum: 0bf531e1a6c13889d425b54cf2f0cddf (MD5) 2017_GiovanniSilvaBeviláqua.pdf: 2235006 bytes, checksum: 1890e194a76ed8f80ca7377c454d6a5c (MD5)
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Esta tese de doutorado apresentada à Universidade de Brasília consiste na construção de um modelo Dinâmico de Equilíbrio Geral e Estocástico (DSGE) para analisar os efeitos da desigualdade de renda na economia brasileira. O modelo corresponde em uma aplicação para o Brasil do modelo desenvolvido por Kumhof and Ranciere (2010) e modificado por Troch (2014). O modelo irá caracterizar dois agentes heterogêneos que diferem entre si por suas preferências intertemporais e pela propriedade de capital na economia. Desta forma, empregamos a já consagrada modelagem DSGE par a análise de um dos problemas socioeconômicos mais relevantes de nosso tempo e pretendemos estudar como a desigualdade subjacente se manifesta em desigualdade de renda e consumo na economia e quais são os possíveis impactos sobre outras variáveis macroeconômicas e como a desigualdade de renda pode ser significativamente afetada pelas condições macroeconômicas. Adicionalmente, estaremos interessados no papel da política fiscal, empreendida pelo governo, em conter os possíveis efeitos negativos da desigualdade.
This doctoral thesis presented to the University of Brasília consists of the construction of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to analyze the effects of income inequality in the Brazilian economy. The model corresponds in an application to Brazil of the model developed by Kumhof and Ranciere (2010) and modified by Troch (2014). The model will characterize two heterogeneous agents that differ by their intertemporal preferences and the ownership of capital in the economy. In this way, we use the already established DSGE modeling to analyze one of the most relevant socioeconomic problems of our time and intend to study how the underlying inequality is manifested in income inequality and consumption in the economy and what are the possible impacts on other macroeconomic variables and As income inequality can be significantly affected by macroeconomic conditions. In addition, we will be interested in the role of fiscal policy, undertaken by the government, in containing the possible negative effects of inequality.
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Hinneburg, Detlef. « Die Symmetrisierung des MacCormack-Schemas im Atmosphärenmodell GESIMA ». Universität Leipzig, 1996. https://ul.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A15046.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The dynamical equations of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model GESIMA are solved numerically on an Arakawa-C grid. Because of the staggered grid most of the prognostic variables and their derivatives have identical local positions. The functional connection between the fluxes and velocities defined at different places is managed by the MacCormack scheme ignoring the local diff erences. The systematic errors are diminished by means of alternate down- and upwind shifting of the fluxes after each time step. A cycle of 8 time steps is necessary to achieve approximately symmetrical conditions because of the shift
permutations. Nevertheless, the systematic errors are not completely removed and the iterative calculation of the dynamic pressure is retarded by starting values from eight time steps ago (same permutation of shift directions). Both shortcomings are avoided by a symmetrized MacCormack scheme without the loss of its advantages of handling strong gradients. The new method is based on the symmetrization of the equations with respect to the passive quantities and on the simultaneous calculation of each equation for opposite shift directions of the active variables followed by averaging both increments. The method is tested for a typical example.Die dynamischen Modellgleichungen des nicht-hydrostatischen mesoskaligen Atmosphärenmodells GESIMA sind numerisch auf einem Arakawa-C-Gitter gelöst. Durch die versetzte Anordnung der Größen auf dem Gitter besitzen die Differenzenquotienten (auf den rechten Seiten) und die prognostizierten Größen (auf den linken Seiten) von vornherein die gleiche lokale Position, allerdings nicht in jedem Fall. Das bisher in GESIMA praktizierte MacCormack-Schema stellt den Zusammenhang zwischen den an verschiedenen Gitterstellen definierten Flüssen und Geschwindigkeiten her, indem die Ortsdifferenz zwischen Fluß- und zugehöriger Geschwindigkeitskomponente ignoriert wird. Zur Verringerung der systematischen Fehler erfolgt die direkte Zuordnung einer Flußkomponente abwechselnd (sequentiell) in einem Zeitschritt zur flußabwärts benachbarten Geschwindigkeitskomponente und im nächsten Zeitschritt zur flußaufwärts benachbarten. Nach Ablauf von jeweils 8 Zeitschritten sind die notwendigen Zuordnungspermutationen der 3 Vektorkomponenten zwecks einer annähernden Symmetrisierung des Verfahrens erreicht. Nachteile des bisherigen Verfahrens sind (a) der nicht vollständige Abbau der jedem Zeitschritt immanenten systematischen Zuordnungsfehler und (b) ein stark erhöhter Rechenaufwand für die iterative Bestimmung des dynamischen Druckes durch einen um 8 Zeitschritte (jeweils gleiche Zuordnungspermutation) zurückliegenden Startwert. Beide Nachteile werden durch ein neues, symmetrisiertes MacCormack-Schema vermieden, ohne daß auf die Vorteile bei der Handhabung starker Gradienten verzichtet werden muß. Das Verfahren beruht (a) auf der Symmetrisierung der lokalen Zuordnung für die passiven Größen innerhalb einer Gleichung (d.h. der nicht durch sie prognostizierten Größen) und (b) auf der simultanen Durchführung der zwei entgegengesetzten Zuordnungsrichtungen für jede der 3 Geschwindigkeitskomponenten innerhalb eines Zeitschrittes mit anschließender Mittelung der beiden Inkremente. Das neue Verfahren wurde anhand eines Beispiels geprüft.
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Van, Tonder Jacob John. « Development of an in vitro mechanistic toxicity screening model using cultured hepatocytes ». Thesis, University of Pretoria, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/24162.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In vitro testing includes both cell-based and cell-free systems that can be used to detect toxicity induced by xenobiotics. In vitro methods are especially useful in rapidly gathering intelligence regarding the toxicity of compounds for which none is available such as new chemical entities developed in the pharmaceutical industry. In addition to this, in vitro investigations are invaluable in providing information concerning mechanisms of toxicity of xenobiotics. This type of toxicity testing has gained popularity among the research and development community because of a number of advantages such as scalability to high throughput screening, cost-effectiveness and predictive power. Hepatotoxicity is one of the major causes of drug attrition and the high cost associated with drug development poses a heavy burden on the development of new chemical entities. Early detection of hepatotoxic agents by in vitro methods will improve lead optimisation and decrease the cost of drug development and reduce drug-induced liver injury. Literature highlights the need for a cellbased in vitro model that is capable of assessing multiple toxicity parameters, which assesses a wider scope of toxicity and would be able to detect subtle types of hepatotoxicity. The present study was aimed at developing an in vitro procedure capable of mechanistically profiling the effects of known hepatotoxin dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane (DDT) and its metabolites, dichlorodiphenyl dichloroethylene (DDE) and dichlorodiphenyl dichloroethane (DDD) on an established liver-derived cell line, HepG2, by evaluating several different aspects of cellular function using a number of simultaneous in vitro assays on a single 96 well microplate. Examined parameters have been suggested by the European Medicines Agency and include: cell viability, phase I metabolism, oxidative stress, mitochondrial toxicity and mode of cell death (apoptosis vs. necrosis). To further assess whether the developed method was capable of detecting hepatoprotection, the effect of the known hepatoprotectant, N-acetylcysteine, was determined. Viability decreased in a dose-dependent manner yielding IC50 values of 54 μM, 64 μM and 44 μM for DDT, DDE and DDD, respectively. Evaluation of phase I metabolism showed that cytochrome P4501A1 activity was dose-dependently induced. Test compounds decreasedlevels of reactive oxygen species, and significantly hyperpolarised the mitochondrialmembrane potential. Assessment of the mode of cell death revealed a significant elevation of caspase-3 activity, with DDD proving to be most potent. DDT alone induced dosedependent loss of membrane integrity. These results suggest that the tested compounds produce apoptotic death likely due to mitochondrial toxicity with subsequent caspase-3 activation and apoptotic cell death. The developed in vitro assay method reduces the time it would take to assess the tested parameters separately, produces results from multiple endpoints that broadens the scope of toxicity compared to single-endpoint methods. In addition to this the method provides results that are truly comparable as all of the assays utilise the same batch of cells and are conducted on the same plate under the exact same conditions, which eliminates a considerable amount of variability that would be unavoidable otherwise. The present study laid a solid foundation for further development of this method by highlighting the unforeseen shortcomings that can be adjusted to improve scalability and predictive power.Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2011.
Pharmacology
unrestricted
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Sun, Xiaojin. « Essays on Housing Markets and Monetary Policy ». Diss., Virginia Tech, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/73489.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This dissertation consists of three essays on housing markets and monetary policy. The first essay focuses on the impact of monetary policy on U.S. local housing markets and finds that monetary policy has uneven impacts on local housing markets, and that the magnitude of the impacts are correlated with housing supply regulations. The second essay studies the optimal interest rate rule in a DSGE model with housing market spillovers and finds that the optimal interest rate rule responds to house price inflation even when the stabilization of house price is not among the objectives of the policymaker.
The third essay is the core of this dissertation. I construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in this paper to study the fluctuations in the U.S. housing markets. The model features a market for newly built houses, a secondary market for old houses, and an endogenous term structure of nominal interest rates. Negative technological progress in the housing sector explains the upward trend in house prices over the past four decades. Housing preference and technology innovations explain about 80% of the volatility of housing investment, real price of new houses, and the old-to-new house price ratio. Monetary factors explain about 15% of the volatility of housing investment, but do not significantly contribute to the price fluctuations of either new or old houses. The preference innovation to old houses is the leading determinant of the run-up in the price of old houses relative to the price of new houses during the 10-year period before the Great Recession. The term structure is endogenous in this paper, and the intertemporal preference innovation makes a non-negligible contribution to the variations in nominal interest rates. Housing market conditions do not contribute much to the fluctuations of interest rates, but significantly affect the shape of the yield curve.Ph. D.
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Cardenas, Rodriguez Julio César. « New Models and Contrast Agents for Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI ». Diss., The University of Arizona, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/222845.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Angiogenesis is a fundamental driver of tumor biology and many other important aspect of human health. Dynamic Contrast Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging (DCE-MRI) has been shown to be a valuable biomarker for the indirect assessment of angiogenesis. However, DCE-MRI is very specialized technique that has limitations. In this dissertation new models and contrast agents to address some of these limitations are presented. Chapter 1 presents an introduction to DCE-MRI, the rationale to asses tumor biology with this technique, the MRI pulses sequences and the standard pharmacokinetic modeling used for the analysis of DCE- MRI data. Chapter 2 describes the application of DCE-MRI to asses the response to the hypoxia-activated drug TH-302. It is shown that DCE-MRI can detect a response after only 24 hours of initiating therapy. In Chapter 3, a new model for the analysis of DCE-MRI is presented, the so-called Linear Reference Region Model (LRRM). This new model improves upon existing models and it was demonstrated that it is ~620 faster than current algorithms and 5 times less sensitive to noise, and more importantly less sensitive to temporal resolution which enables the analysis of DCE-MRI data obtained in the clinical setting, which opens a new area of study in clinical MRI. Chapter 4 describes the extension of the LRRM to estimate the absolute permeability of two fluorinated contrast agents; we call this approach the Reference Agent Model (RAM). In order to make this new model an experimental reality, a novel pulse sequence and contrast agents (CA) for ¹⁹F MRI were developed. Two contributions to the field of DCE-MRI are presented in this chapter, the first simultaneous ¹⁹F-DCE-MRI detection of two fluorinated CA in a mouse model of breast cancer, and the estimation of their relative permeability. RAM eliminates some of the physiological variables that affect DCE-MRI, which may improve its sensitivity and specificity. Finally, new potential applications of LRRM and RAM are discussed in Chapter 5.
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Molins, Rafa Sergi. « Using the Dusty Gas Model to investigate reaction-induced multicomponent gas and solute transport in the vadose zone ». Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/431.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Biogeochemical reactions and vadose zone transport, in particular gas phase transport, are inherently coupled processes. To explore feedback mechanisms between these processes in a quantitative manner, multicomponent gas diffusion and advection are implemented into an existing reactive transport model that includes a full suite of geochemical reactions. Multicomponent gas diffusion is described based on the Dusty Gas Model, which provides the most generally applicable description for gas diffusion. Gas advection is described by Darcy's Law, which in the current formulation, is directly substituted into the transport equations.
The model is used to investigate the interactions between geochemical reactions and transport processes with an emphasis to quantify reaction-induced gas migration in the vadose zone. Simulations of pyrite oxidation in mine tailings, gas attenuation in partially saturated landfill soil covers, and methane production and oxidation in aquifers contaminated by organic compounds demonstrate how biogeochemical reactions drive diffusive and advective transport of reactive and non-reactive gases. Pyrite oxidation in mine tailings causes a pressure reduction in the reaction zone and drives advective gas flow into the sediment column, enhancing the oxidation process. Release of carbon dioxide by carbonate mineral dissolution partly offsets pressure reduction, and illustrates the role of water-rock interaction on gas transport. Microbially mediated methane oxidation in landfill covers reduces the existing upward pressure gradient, thereby decreasing the contribution of advective methane emissions to the atmosphere and enhancing the net flux of atmospheric oxygen into the soil column. At an oil spill site, both generation of CH4 in the methanogenic zone and oxidation of CH4 in the methanotrophic zone contribute to drive advective and diffusive fluxes. The model confirmed that non-reactive gases tend to accumulate in zones of gas consumption and become depleted in zones of gas production.
In most cases, the model was able to quantify existing conceptual models, but also proved useful to identify data gaps, sensitivity, and inconsistencies in conceptual models. The formulation of the model is general and can be applied to other vadose zone systems in which reaction-induced gas transport is of importance.
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Ahmad, Mushtaq. « Systematic time-based study for quantifying the uncertainty of uncalibrated models in building energy simulations ». Texas A&M University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/1191.
Texte intégralRésumé :
This thesis documents the usefulness and accuracy of uncalibrated simulations to determine for what end-uses these simulations should be used. The study was divided into three segments 1)comparison of the accuracy of two simulation models, massless and advanced, against measured data 2) comparison of the results from two simulations models, simplistic and massless, to determine the sensitivity of envelope shape and details for two weather conditions 3) identification of the parameters that have a significant impact on the simulation output.
Five buildings were selected as the test sample. Four of the buildings were multi story commercial buildings. The fifth was a single-family residential house. For the first segment of the study two simulation models were created for all the buildings; the massless model with emphasis on the envelope using massless construction and typical values for system parameters and the advanced model with the inclusion of thermal mass and extensive as-built details of the systems. For the second part of the research the simplistic model was created having a single floor one-zone with glazing and conditioned areas equivalent to the massless model. The sensitivity analysis was done using the massless model and selected variables from the loads and systems as sensitivity parameters.
By following the procedure mentioned, it was found that uncalibrated simulation models do not depict the real operating conditions of a building. For some cases the simulated values are higher than the measured data while for others they are significantly lower. The CV (RMSE) between the measured and simulated values ranges from 30 to 150%. From the comparison of the simplistic and massless model, it was concluded that the outer envelope shape and details have an impact on the heating and cooling energy use irrespective of the weather conditions. For internally load dominated buildings this impact is more on the heating loads than on the cooling loads. The conclusions from the sensitivity analysis were that outside air fraction and the total supply air have the most significant impact on the simulation output while thermal mass has a small impact.
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Mickelsson, Glenn. « DSGE Model Estimation and Labor Market Dynamics ». Doctoral thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-301722.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Essay 1: Estimation of DSGE Models with Uninformative Priors DSGE models are typically estimated using Bayesian methods, but because prior information may be lacking, a number of papers have developed methods for estimation with less informative priors (diffuse priors). This paper takes this development one step further and suggests a method that allows full information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimation of a medium-sized DSGE model. FIML estimation is equivalent to placing uninformative priors on all parameters. Inference is performed using stochastic simulation techniques. The results reveal that all parameters are identifiable and several parameter estimates differ from previous estimates that were based on more informative priors. These differences are analyzed. Essay 2: A DSGE Model with Labor Hoarding Applied to the US Labor Market In the US, some relatively stable patterns can be observed with respect to employment, production and productivity. An increase in production is followed by an increase in employment with lags of one or two quarters. Productivity leads both production and employment, especially employment. I show that it is possible to replicate this empirical pattern in a model with only one demand-side shock and labor hoarding. I assume that firms have organizational capital that depreciates if workers are utilized to a high degree in current production. When demand increases, firms can increase utilization, but over time, they have to hire more workers and reduce utilization to restore organizational capital. The risk shock turns out to be very dominant and explains virtually all of the dynamics. Essay 3: Demand Shocks and Labor Hoarding: Matching Micro Data In Swedish firm-level data, output is more volatile than employment, and in response to demand shocks, employment follows output with a one- to two-year lag. To explain these observations, we use a model with labor hoarding in which firms can change production by changing the utilization rate of their employees. Matching the impulse response functions, we find that labor hoarding in combination with increasing returns to scale in production and a very high price stickiness can explain the empirical pattern very well. Increasing returns to scale implies a larger percentage change in output than in employment. Price stickiness amplifies volatility in output because the price has a dampening effect on demand changes. Both of these explain the delayed reaction in employment in response to output changes.
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Schwarzfischer, Klaus. « Die Relevanz semiotischer Dimensionen als "System der möglichen Fehler" für die Usability ». Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-223695.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Aus Punkt 1:
"Warum lohnt sich Semiotik gerade im Bereich Usability und Design? Mehr noch, die Semiotik als übergreifende Perspektive ist hier gar nicht zu vermeiden. (Vermeidbar ist allenfalls der Soziolekt bzw. Technolekt der akademischen Semiotik, nicht aber ein semiotisches Arbeiten selbst.)
Das Denken vieler Designer ist eher visuell geprägt. Diese Ausrichtung auf non-verbale Formen und Handlungen scheint der Semiotik entgegen zu stehen. Die Semiotik hat zwar eine starke Tradition in der Linguistik, aber diese stellt nur eine von mehreren gleichwertigen Zugängen dar: Man denke etwa an die Medizin (wo visuelle und sonstige Symptome als Zeichen gedeutet werden), an die Malerei (wo es Repräsentationen für ästhetische, soziale und politische Entsprechungen gibt), an die Gestik (wo jede kleinere oder größere Bewegung eines Muskels mit Bedeutungen verknüpft ist) oder an die Musik (wo sehr abstrakte Tonfolgen mit emotionaler Dynamik verbunden sind) – dazu etwa Eco (2002), Nöth (2000), Hucklenbroich (2003), Mazzola (2003) sowie Grammer (2004). ..."
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Lobato, Carlos Eduardo. « Política fiscal e monetária ótimas em um modelo de médio porte para o Brasil pós plano real ». reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/49932.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Uma questão fundamental na macroeconomia é: Como um governo benevolente deveria conduzir as políticas monetária e fiscal no longo prazo e nos ciclos de negócios? Esta dissertação visa elucidar essa questão caracterizando as políticas monetária e fiscal ótimas para o Brasil no período pós Plano Real . Para tanto, será feito uso de um modelo de médio porte tal como proposto por Schmitt-Grohé e Uribe (2005). Médio porte, nada mais é do que a inclusão de quatro fontes de rigidez nominal: rigidez de preços, rigidez de salários, demanda por moeda por parte dos indivíduos e uma restrição cash-in-advance sobre a massa salarial das firmas. E cinco fontes de rigidez real: custos de ajustamento do investimento, utilização de capacidade variável, formação de hábitos, competição imperfeita nos mercados de produtos e fatores e taxação distorciva. Verificou-se que a estabilidade dos preços constitui essencialmente a política ótima.A fundamental question in macroeconomics is how a benevolent government should conduct monetary and fiscal policies in the long-term and in the business cycles? This thesis aims to elucidate this question characterizing the optimal monetary and fiscal policies to Brazilin the period after the Real Plan. To do so, will be done using a medium-scale model as proposed by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2005). Medium-scale, is nothing more than the inclusion of four sources of nominal rigidities: sticky prices, sticky wages, demand for money by individuals and a constraint cash-in-advance on the payroll of the firms. And five sources of real rigidities: investment adjustment costs, variable capacity utilization, habit formation, imperfect competition in product markets and factors and distorting taxation. It was found that price stability is essentially the optimal policy.
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Breuss, Fritz, et Katrin Rabitsch. « An estimated two-country DSGE model of Austria and the Euro Area ». Europainstitut, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2008. http://epub.wu.ac.at/558/1/document.pdf.
Texte intégralRésumé :
We present a two-country New Open Economy Macro model of the Austrian economy within the European Union's Economic & Monetary Union (EMU). The model includes both nominal and real frictions that have proven to be important in matching business cycle facts, and that allows for an investigation of the effects and cross-country transmission of a number of structural shocks: shocks to technologies, shocks to preferences, cost-push type shocks and policy shocks. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods on quarterly data covering the period of 1976:Q1- 2005:Q1. In addition to the assessment of the relative importance of various shocks, the model also allows to investigate effects of the monetary regime switch with the final stage of the EMU and investigates in how far this has altered macroeconomic transmission. We find that Austria's economy appears to react stronger to demand shocks, while in the rest of the Euro Area supply shocks have a stronger impact. Comparing the estimations on pre-EMU and EMU subsamples we find that the contribution of (rest of the) Euro Area shocks to Austria's business cycle fluctuations has increased significantly. (author´s abstract)Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut
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Ferroni, Filippo. « Essay on Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models ». Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/7397.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Esta tesis presenta tres diferentes experimentos de política utilizando estimaciones Bayesianas de modelos DSGE. En la primera parte, se quiere demostrar que una política fiscal contracíclica es un instrumento importante para la estabilidad macroeconómica. Este resultado es robusto a diferentes controles. En la segunda parte, se demuestra las variaciones de las estimaciones de los parámetros estructurales según la descomposición ciclo-tendencia, si en uno o en dos estadios. Resulta que con un procedimiento a dos estadios la volatilidad del PIB es explicada mayormente por shocks nominales, mientras que con un procedimiento a un estadio por un shock a la inversión. Se argumenta que el procedimiento a un estadio proporciona una estructura probabilística más coherente. La tercera parte de la tesis propone una manera de estimar los parámetros estructurales utilizando la información procedente de distintos filtros. Mientras que con un tipo de estimación con un único filtro el dinero tiene poca influencia en las fluctuaciones de medio plazo, con un sistema de múltiples filtros el dinero tiene un papel importante en la transmisión de los shocks.This thesis examines three different policy experiments using Bayesian estimates of DSGE models. First, we show that countercyclical fiscal policies are important to smooth fluctuations and that this is true regardless of how we specify the fiscal rule and several details of the model. Second, we show that the sources of output volatility obtained from a cyclical DSGE model crucially depend on whether estimation is done sequentially or jointly. In fact, while with a two step procedure, where the trend is first removed, nominal shocks drive output volatility, investment shocks dominate when structural and trend parameters are estimated jointly. Finally, we examine the role of money for business cycle fluctuations with a single and a multiple filtering approach, where information provided by different filters is jointly used to estimate DSGE parameters. In the former case, money has a marginal role for output and inflation fluctuations, while in the latter case is important to transmit cyclical fluctuations.
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Zimmer, Janek. « Initialisierung des LM mit künstlichen Eingangsdaten zur Abschätzung orografischer Effekte auf die Niederschlagsverteilung bei idealisierten Strömungssimulationen ». Wissenschaftliche Mitteilungen des Leipziger Instituts für Meteorologie ; 37 = Meteorologische Arbeiten aus Leipzig … und Jahresbericht … des Instituts für Meteorologie der Universität Leipzig ; 11 (2006), S. 149-152, 2006. https://ul.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A15515.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Das Lokalmodell (LM) wurde für eine Reihe von Sensitivitätsuntersuchungen bezüglich orografischer Beeinflussung von Niederschlag verwendet. Für die Initialisierung des Modells mit Anfangs- und Randdaten wurde ein Schema entwickelt, welches eine horizontal
homogene und stationäre Strömung aus einem einzelnen Vertikalprofil der benötigten atmosphärischen Variablen erstellt. Dabei wird hier auch der horizontale Luftdruckgradient berücksichtigt, wodurch eventuelle Auswirkungen der Coriolisterme auch ohne eine sehr große Entfernung des Zielgebietes vom Modellrand untersucht werden können. Simulationen mit idealisierten Eingangsfeldern können zur Verdeutlichung des Einflusses eines orografischen Hindernisses auf das dreidimensionale Strömungsfeld dienen. Außerdem sind sie zur Validierung bestimmter Parametrisierungen geeignet, da sich im Gegensatz zu realen Randdaten keine überlagerten synoptisch-skaligen Störungen im Modellgebiet befinden. Die hier verwendete Konvektionsparametrisierung nach Tiedtke (1989) zeigt unterschiedlich ausgeprägte Niederschlagsverteilungen und Flächenmittel in Abhängigkeit von der unterliegenden Orografie.The Lokalmodell (LM) has been used for a series of sensitivity studies treating orographic modification of precipitation. An initialization technique has been developed which generates a horizontally homogeneous and stationary flow out of a single vertical profile of the required atmospheric variables. Herein, the horizontal pressure gradient is considered as well, allowing to investigate the influence of the Coriolis terms without the need for the area under investigation to be far away from the model boundaries. Simulations with idealized initialization fields can help to illustrate the influence of orographic obstacles on the three-dimensional flow field. Furthermore, they enable to validate certain parameterizations because of the missing synoptic-scale disturbances, which are present using real boundary data. The chosen parameterization of convection after Tiedtke (1989) shows different distributions of precipitation and its area-averaged values depending on the underlying orography.
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Zheng, Xin. « Stock Market, Investment and Sentiment in the Framework of Bayesian DSGE Models ». Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/20348.
Texte intégralRésumé :
We investigate the interactions among consumer preference, firm investment, stock market activity, investor sentiment and monetary policy in Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models for the U.S. economy. We design a framework in which household turnovers, firm turnovers, equity risk premiums, investment, preference and sentiment jointly influence stock price misalignments and macroeconomic fluctuations. These are not only due to households’ interactions with the stock market through financial wealth, consumer preference and investor sentiment, but also induced by firms’ interactions with the stock market through financial resources, firm investment and equity risk premiums. Our objectives are fivefold. We disentangle between stock price fluctuations induced by risk premiums and by animal spirits. We model risk premiums using the financial shock and animal spirits using the sentiment shock. We identify influence channels of the real economy on stock price fluctuations. We investigate propagation mechanisms of stock price fluctuations to the real economy and evaluate monetary policy responses to stock price misalignments. Our methodologies include Bayesian estimation, historical shock decomposition, impulse response analysis, forecast error variance decomposition and Bayesian model comparison. Our main findings are fourfold. Equity risk premiums, sentiment, investment and preference make substantial contributions to explaining stock price fluctuations, consumer sentiment variations, investment fluctuations, output fluctuations and inflation variations. Financial, sentiment, investment and preference shocks propagate through stock market index pricing rule, stock market bubble evolution, intertemporal substitution of investment and intertemporal substitution of consumption respectively. Higher household turnover rate increases stock market wealth effect and aggregate demand, whereas higher firm turnover rate contaminates stock market wealth effect and financial shocks’ impacts. Monetary policy responds counteractively and significantly to financial slack at business cycle frequency. We then combine the artificial data generated by the DSGE model and the actual data originating from the unrestricted VAR model to formulate DSGE prior for Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model. Furthermore, we apply the DSGE model implied cross-equation restrictions to BVAR model and generate DSGE-VAR model in two forms. One form is combination of DSGE model implied prior mean and Normal-Inverse Wishart prior, and we define it as DSGE-VAR model with N-IW prior. The other form is combination of DSGE model implied prior mean and Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS) in Mean-Inverse Wishart prior, and we define it as DSGE-VAR model with SSVS in Mean-IW prior. Finally, we estimate and assess relative forecasting performance of BVAR models with three types of priors, which are DSGE-N-IW prior, DSGE-SSVS in Mean-IW prior and Minnesota Prior. We find DSGE-VAR model with SSVS in Mean-IW prior has identical forecasting performance of BVAR model with Minnesota prior. Therefore, we have demonstrated that the DSGE model does not incur serious model misspecification problem.