Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Centre (DKASC) »

Improving the accuracy of very-short-term (VST) photovoltaic (PV) power generation prediction can effectively enhance the quality of operational scheduling of PV power plants, and provide a reference for PV maintenance and emergency response. In this paper, the effects of different meteorological factors on PV power generation as well as the degree of impact at different time periods are analyzed. Secondly, according to the characteristics of radiation coordinate, a simple radiation classification coordinate (RCC) method is proposed to classify and select similar time periods. Based on the characteristics of PV power time-series, the selected similar time period dataset (include power output and multivariate meteorological factors data) is reconstructed as the training dataset. Then, the long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network is applied as the learning network of the proposed model. The proposed model is tested on two independent PV systems from the Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Centre (DKASC) PV data. The proposed model achieving mean absolute percentage error of 2.74–7.25%, and according to four error metrics, the results show that the robustness and accuracy of the RCC-LSTM model are better than the other four comparison models.

The meteorological environment is a determining factor in photovoltaic (PV) system feasibility (PVSF). To evaluate this impact more accurately, a quantitative analysis model based on multimeteorological factors and the Random Forest Regression model is proposed in this work. Firstly, an evaluation system is established to assess the impact. Then, to predict the indicators of the evaluation system, a parameter, i.e., performance ratio in sampling period, is defined. Secondly, a set of essential influences on the performance ratio in the sampling period is established through analyzing and reducing the discovered influences on the PV system performance. Finally, data from the Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Centre (DKASC) website are used to conduct the experiment. During the experiment, the sample set is cleaned using the model based on the cosine of the zenith angle. The functional relationship between the performance ratio in the sampling period and its essential influences is established through training a Random Forest Regression model with the data of the modeling system. The data of the test system are used to verify the forecast performance of the proposed model. Compared with the reference model, which is based on the traditional physical experiment, the results of the proposed model accord better with the measured values.

In view of the current problems of complex models and insufficient data processing in ultra-short-term prediction of photovoltaic power generation, this paper proposes a photovoltaic power ultra-short-term prediction model named HPO-KNN-SRU, based on a Simple Recurrent Unit (SRU), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Hunter–Prey Optimization (HPO). Firstly, the sliding time window is determined by using the autocorrelation function (ACF), partial correlation function (PACF), and model training. The Pearson correlation coefficient method is used to filter the principal meteorological factors that affect photovoltaic power. Then, the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm is utilized for effective outlier detection and processing to ensure the quality of input data for the prediction model, and the Hunter–Prey Optimization (HPO) algorithm is applied to optimize the parameters of the KNN algorithm. Finally, the efficient Simple Recurrent Unit (SRU) model is used for training and prediction, with the Hunter–Prey Optimization (HPO) algorithm applied to optimize the parameters of the SRU model. Simulation experiments and extensive ablation studies using photovoltaic data from the Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Centre (DKASC) in Alice Springs, Australia, validate the effectiveness of the integrated model, the KNN outlier handling, and the HPO algorithm. Compared to the Support Vector Regression (SVR), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN), and Simple Recurrent Unit (SRU) models, this model exhibits an average reduction of 19.63% in Mean Square Error (RMSE), 27.54% in Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and an average increase of 1.96% in coefficient of determination (R2) values.

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation has brought about enormous economic and environmental benefits, promoting sustainable development. However, due to the intermittency and volatility of PV power, the high penetration rate of PV power generation may pose challenges to the planning and operation of power systems. Accurate PV power forecasting is crucial for the safe and stable operation of the power grid. This paper proposes a short-term PV power forecasting method using K-means clustering, ensemble learning (EL), a feature rise-dimensional (FRD) approach, and quantile regression (QR) to improve the accuracy of deterministic and probabilistic forecasting of PV power. The K-means clustering algorithm was used to construct weather categories. The EL method was used to construct a two-layer ensemble learning (TLEL) model based on the eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), CatBoost, and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The FRD approach was used to optimize the TLEL model, construct the FRD-XGBoost-LSTM (R-XGBL), FRD-RF-LSTM (R-RFL), and FRD-CatBoost-LSTM (R-CatBL) models, and combine them with the results of the TLEL model using the reciprocal error method, in order to obtain the deterministic forecasting results of the FRD-TLEL model. The QR was used to obtain probability forecasting results with different confidence intervals. The experiments were conducted with data at a time level of 15 min from the Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Center (DKASC) to forecast the PV power of a certain day. Compared to other models, the proposed FRD-TLEL model has the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in different seasons and weather types. In probability interval forecasting, the 95%, 75%, and 50% confidence intervals all have good forecasting intervals. The results indicate that the proposed PV power forecasting method exhibits a superior performance in forecasting accuracy compared to other methods.

Abstract To provide accurate predictions of photovoltaic (PV) power generation, an MHPSA-LSTM ultra-short-term multipoint PV power prediction model combining Multi-head ProbSparse self-attention (MHPSA) and long short-term memory (LSTM) network is posited. The MHPSA is first used to capture information dependencies at a distance. Secondly, the LSTM is used to enhance the local correlation. At last, a pooling layer is added after LSTM to reduce the parameters of the fully-connected layer and alleviate overfitting, thus improving the prediction accuracy. The MHPSA-LSTM model is validated on a PV plant at the Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Centre as an example, and the RMSE, MAE, and R2 of MHPSA-LSTM are 0.527, 0.264, and 0.917, respectively. MHPSA-LSTM has higher prediction accuracy compared with BP, LSTM, GRU, and CNN-LSTM.